Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Five Best Bets NFL Week 9

Episode Date: November 3, 2023

Geoff is joined this week by Sammy P from Fox Sports who talks us through the value of getting lines early in the week, how he chooses his plays weekly, and what teams he sees value in across the NFL and NCAAF including a quick breakdown of the Josh Allen and Joe Burrow showdown on SNF. Geoff then breaks down every game this week to find his five best bets amongst a difficult week 9 slate. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Friday, November 3rd. I'mff schwartz this is jeff schwartz this morning you were live on twitter youtube and we're on your favorite podcast platform which if you're here guys please leave us a rating and a review it really helps our business and we love having you listen to the show and if you're here we'd love for you to do that on friday we're brought to you by vaulted the home my season-long game giving out fourteen thousand dollars of cash prizes in my pools with five thousand allocated to my final pool of the season we'll do a day of the big game that's vaulted spelled vltd it's a place you can store your sports predictions participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees and

prove you're smart and you're friends by using the vaulted challenge feature i have my own pool each week on vaulted but you guys know where to find it go to vaulted app you win cash prizes first place 400 second place 75 third place 25 it's Go to the Vaulted app. You win cash prizes. First place, $400. Second place, $75. Third place, $25. It's free to enter. We're doing it every single week of the season. And to qualify for the big game pool, you have to beat me in the weekly pool.

So go to the Vaulted app. That's V-L-T-E-D. Go find me. That's Jeff. Jeff with a G. G-O-F-F. Interact with me. Look at my predictions.

Look at my pool. Have a lot of fun with it. We always enjoy when you guys join up. This week, we're doing things a little bit different. We teased for a couple weeks now. Matt is with child now. His wife gave birth to their beautiful child, so he will not be here this week.

He may be back next week, but Matt and I have talked throughout the week about picks. We'll get to that in a little bit, but I'm glad to be joined now by a friend of mine, a of mine at fox sports he also works at nes it also has the chicken dinner podcast sammy p welcome to the program buddy i'm glad to have you and you dressed up today you're wearing it for those who are watching uh online you got a jacket and nice shirt on a pocket square man i love it buddy it, buddy. How you doing? I'm doing well, my friend.

Thanks for the invite. This is like a home and home. You were on Chicken Dinner last football season, and now I'm on your show. Although, are you really smarter than me? Are you? I will say you're one of the few people that I am probably not smarter than, especially in the gambling world. I explain you to people like you're a Game of Thrones fan. You watch Game of Thrones, I would imagine.

I did not, no. Oh, geez. There's a guy that's like Lord of Whispers. He's like the guy that gets all the information from all over the kingdoms. That is you, Sammy. You're the guy that knows everything about all the lines, all the injuries, where everything's going. How did you start in the gambling business? Because that's a pretty strong connection you have with a lot of people out West.

Well, the business side of it, I didn't start until 2016. I was working as a reporter in Chicago. So I guess the whisper side of things started as, you know, I had to get scoops like I would try and break trades or signings or things like that with the major teams in Chicago, Bears, Bulls, Cubs, Hawks and Sox. And that sort of cut my teeth in terms of trying to find things out, create sources, have a network and all that. And then Joe Ostrowski and I worked at competing radio stations. So we couldn't work together, but we were both gambling like crazy. We said, look, we should do a podcast because everybody needs a podcast. Right. He said, look, we should do a podcast because everybody needs a podcast, right? So we started Chicken Dinner in 2016. And then two years later, I took a job out in Vegas working for Brent Musburger and the Vegas Stats and Information Network.

So that sort of gave me a crash course in Las Vegas. It was like a master program. I was out there for a year and a half, got to meet these big bettors and meet these bookmakers and all that and just sort of continued to bloom the onion and then uh when i left vsan i had an opportunity to come out here and be on tv every day in essence so it's sort of a a weird path you know it's sort of like being an offensive lineman in the nfl you know where you're at now but you don't know where you're going to be in three years um i never thought i'd be doing gambling content for a living but here we are so have you always liked to gamble because i

i liked i have a personality that likes to gamble i gamble throughout my career with sort of one year deals and trying to find the best spot for me but obviously i didn't gamble on sports until i was i was finished playing but it's something i always sort of had an eye on did you grow up gambling in a gambling household? Something you wanted to do as a kid? Yeah, my dad gambled for sure. And we were shooting dice in driver's ed when I was 15, 16. So it was sort of in the blood. I had uncles that were bookies.

And for those of us not watching, I did put quotations around uncles. It was funny because I had this knack for picking college basketball when I was really young. I played basketball. I played through high school and all that. but I was never good enough to play. I'm not going to give you some sob story about how my knee blew out. I knew I wasn't going to play. I'm a 6'1 white guy that can't jump. So I was like 12, 13 years old, and I really had this affinity for the Big Ten. I watched all the games, and I had this knack for sort of

looking in the Sun-Times every Saturday. And as you know, Saturday is a big college day for football and basketball. And it would be, you know, seven games in the Big Ten. If it was conference play, it was less. It was three or four. And I just had this ability to pick winners in college basketball. But I wasn't gambling. I was giving the picks to my dad's friends and then they sort of figured out that I was kind of better than them and they would call the house on Saturday morning and go you know is Sammy there and my mom would answer the phone and give the phone to my dad because it you know it's my dad's friends and they go no the other Sam and then I'd be like yeah i like minnesota plus four or whatever so it started with big ten hoops and like seventh and eighth grade i started picking these

games out of the paper well because the paper always had the lines you know like at the back of the sports page um didn't have a bookie at 12 um but i i sort of understood what the spread was at a very young age, believe it or not. So how's your process work now each week with football? Like, how do you prepare? Like, you know, Saturday is obviously the end of college football will end Saturday night. The NFL will end Monday night, but obviously the bulk of the games are over by Sunday. How's your process work to sort of getting ready for each week before you make your wagers? It's changed a lot over the last five years. You know, I used to bet day of the game during football season, like most of us

do. I mean, I'm not trying to say that it's the wrong thing. It's just you miss good numbers if you're betting day of the game. Like if you're betting Saturday and Sunday for college and pro, you've missed moves. Like this Texas-Kansas State game this week opened at 51 last Sunday, you know, days ago. And I thought, well, I have a feeling that game is probably going to come lower because I know that the market is going to short Malik Murphy. He threw a lot of screen passes last week against BYU, and BYU was giving a big chunk play.

So you're not going to screen Kansas State to death. So early in the week, it's sort of anticipation of market. Where do I think the're not going to screen Kansas State to death. So early in the week, it's sort of anticipation of market. Where do I think the money's going to go? And you can lock in good numbers like Iowa State minus one is now two and a half, three. So trying to project where the money's going to come in later in the week can get you to some bets, you know, on Monday and Tuesday. As for the games later in the week, like let's take a game Chicago-New Orleans. Look, I don't love the Bears. In fact, I think they're one of the worst teams in football. But, Jeff, this number has crossed through seven.

You know, it opened five and a half in Vegas. Now it's eight and a half, and everybody wanted to bet the Bears Sunday night after Bajent beat the Raiders of all teams, and they got throttled, and now nobody wants to bet the Bears. Well, I'm going to take a good number. So it's anticipation of the market early in the week. And then it's sort of capitalizing on the overreactions later in the week. I wasn't going to take five and a half.

I wasn't going to take six. But you're going to give me eight and a half against Derek Carr, who's 17, 34 and two is a favorite. Give me a break. So it's that's a sort of complex answer, but it's understanding where the numbers start, where they're probably going to move. And then if they move too far, you take advantage. Talk about your power rating system,

because I think people don't understand how the lines are sort of made. They're not obviously, they're just not coming out of thin air, but they're done basically on power ratings, right vegas has a power rating and they sort of figure it out how do you come up with your power rating to figure out where you have teams ranked so i have a couple guys that send me their power ratings and i sort of massage them all together i have three guys one of them is kenny white who's been making numbers in vegas he's a legend out

there four decades his dad was an odds maker so you sort of take their numbers and kind of like combine and then divide by three and get to that number. Like, for example, we'll take Alabama LSU. That's a perfect example this week. So those two teams, according to the three guys, are basically equal on a neutral field. I want to say it's like 117 and 117. So that is the team power rating. Well,

on a neutral, this game's a pick-em. Yet when you move it to Tuscaloosa, you have to add in the edge for home field. And Alabama's like three, four points, but the market is now Alabama painted three. So it's really a system of trying to put a number two teams. In the NFL, the highest power rated team right now at full strength is still San Francisco, despite their three straight losses and their injuries on the offensive line. Debo is hurt, but at full strength, Jeff, that is still on a neutral field. San Francisco is the best team in football,

and if San Francisco is in the Super Bowl, they might be favored over every team that isn't Kansas City. You give Mahomes the love because he has two rings. But it's really trying to avoid perception and having a reality based on numbers, because it's very easy to look at teams and go, well, they've won three in a row or they've lost three in a row. But weird shit happens in sport. I mean, look at Clemson, for example. Clemson is 4-4, and there are going to be a lot of people this week that don't want to bet Clemson, and I understand it. But they have three losses all by one score, or they have four losses.

They're 4-4, but three of the losses are by one score, and two of those are in overtime. It's a little unlucky. They're power-rated, still pretty high. They're just not sexy to the common better who looks at the record and goes oh they're four and four and notre dame only has to win by four you know it's never that simple teams over time over a bigger sample size will play to their power rating um you mentioned the the clemson game it's interesting talking about we talked about this

on bear bets the other day about like ve Vegas sort of setting out a number there, hoping you take the other side, essentially. How do you wade through that noise where it seems like a number might be too good to be true? As you mentioned, like, oh, Notre Dame wants to win by four. And really the Clemson plus three side is like the actual side that they want you to sort of take. I think the books are happy writing Notre Dame minus three. And I'll tell you what, they're probably even happier with the avalanche of parlays. I mean, think about the Moneyline parlays on a Saturday.

People are going to just put Notre Dame Moneyline in their box, minus 160, minus 170. Oh, well, they're going to win. They're a better team. They have a better record. And really, it's not that simple. I mean, I'm more of an X is a nose's type guy when we get to college, as you are as well. I mean, you played the sport at a very high level. Notre Dame wants to run the football. Clemson has three NFL guys on the D-line. So that sort of negates what Notre Dame would like to do. And Sam Hartman

is good, but I don't think he's great by any stretch. Clemson also has pretty good guys in the secondary. So that's just the game where, you know, if you go back five years and you put Clemson at home against Notre Dame, Clemson is going to be favored in every one of those games. But because Clemson has sort of underachieved this year, that's why they are the dog at home, albeit a small one at plus three. But I promise you buddy the money line parlays most of those involving this game are going to have notre dame and not clemson and

clearly it's a pick'em game on a neutral i mean to have notre dame or not on neutral it's a pick'em game like in its own right like it should be a pick'em but notre dame has the um what's the term the luster or the aura. But here's the other side of it. They've been playing almost every single week since August. You know, their season started week zero in Dublin, and they've only had one week off in this college football season. I just wonder, at what point does the gaslight go on, and you're not going to manhandle Clemson, especially in the trenches.

So this will be a game where the house is definitely going to root for Clemson. And in that case, I'm going to take the unpopular dog at home, get three. How much difference is there wagering on college football versus the NFL? Because everyone always says the NFL is the hardest to wager on. It's the sharpest, right? The least amount of games, obviously. The most people want to wager on those games how different is it for you well injuries in college can just you know blow a line wide open i mean you've been the recipient of some of these tips we've had the

last couple of years like a starting quarterback at temple if he's any good could be worth seven points you know it's just it's it the starting quarterback. And then there's a huge drop off to the backup where we get to the NFL. All right. Kirk Cousins to Josh Dobbs is probably four points, but a really good college quarterback at an average school could be worth seven or eight points. Like Curtis Rourke at Ohio is another example. He was out this year, the line moved six points. So if you can get the right information, you can get these things to just fly open. And the other thing that's interesting about college is these totals can fluctuate. I mean, we got a game this week in the low 30s with Iowa and Northwestern.

And then you look at USC, Washington, it's 77 and a half. You're not going to see that range in the NFL. So I think sometimes the bookmakers, Jeff, it's easier to set totals in the NFL because you're mostly going to be in that 45 to 47 sweet spot. If it's, you know, bills and chiefs, it's probably low fifties. If it's Texans and Colts, it might be high thirties, but the accordion isn't that stretchy, where if we get, you know, Iowa, Boston College, that total might be, I don't want to say 17 and a half, but I don't think that'd be too far off. And then you get USC and Washington, and we're at almost 80. So I think it's harder to make some of these totals in college because anything can happen

in a college football game. I mean, we could see guys throw for four or 500 yards and, you know, tackling is not great. I think the NFL is, is a lot more volatile. There's a lot more wide ranging stuff in the NFL where college,

usually the better team is going to take care of business. And then we also see bigger spreads. I mean, teams are laying 30 and 40. And I remember when Stanfordford beat usc one year is like a 40 point dog coaching yeah you would never see a 40 point favorite in the nfl i mean even in some of these bad games we'll get the nfl in a second i mean you get to you mentioned bears you get to like eight nine points you're like that's ridiculous i'm taking the dog because that's just too many points in the NFL because obviously everyone is a professional. Last question before we kind of get into the NFL slate.

You do not give out a lot of picks relative to, I think, your peers in the industry. How do you sort of decide to keep your menu very limited when a lot of us just fire away as we see fit? Yeah, some of us more than others too, huh? I have learned that my bosses now are in a position where they don't really care about volume of picks. They want good picks. Like Fox asks for best bets every Friday and I give usually four or five and that's awesome. But I've always been sort of a centralized type of guy i don't like 30 bets a week i like you know five to ten i like the ones that i really like um we do give out best bets on our tv show here at neson every day but it's one bet you know claudia gives a bet

travis gives a bet and i give a bet and that's fine i mean if you're doing a betting show people do want picks but my bosses have been very cool with me they don't need 18 parlays they don't need a million best bets they want us to explain the science why lines move why they are a certain way and i've been lucky to fall into a couple really good jobs with ness and then with fox i do give out bets because chicken dinner is a show that was predicated on giving out bets i think i have right six bets on the Twitter feed right now. But no, there's never been pressure. I've never had any pressure to pump out picks that I don't like.

And to me, that's incredible because not a lot of people are that fortunate. A lot of people are forced to make wagers. Like, all right, who's your Monday night lock? That sucks. Like, if I had to give a Monday night lock every week, I'd hate myself. Yeah. But this week, though, you'd absolutely take the Jets give a Monday night lock every week. Oh, terribly. Yeah. And, but this week though, you'd absolutely take the jets for, for Monday night lock. Like if you wager on the chargers this week, you can't lay three and a half because every game,

as you have said on our show each and every week, we'll be tied with a, with three minutes. If you look at the NFL slate this week, a lot of ugly quarterbacks, a lot of ugly teams right now, Where is your attention at for the NFL? So I told you I played Chicago plus eight and a half. I think it's an overreaction to the Bears being bad on Sunday. The number is too big. You know, at eight and a half, I was going to take it no matter what.

Like, I don't care who's a quarterback. There's a game in the NFC East that is really fascinating. Philly opens three at home against Dallas. And obviously, Philly has one loss. Best team in the NFC right that is really fascinating. Philly opens three at home against Dallas. And obviously, Philly has one loss. Best team in the NFC right now, allegedly. But I look at their advanced metrics. They are not scoring touchdowns inside the red zone. Last year, they were converting inside the 20 at 70%. It's actually like 69.5%. This year, it's barely over 50 so they are not getting those automatic touchdowns inside the 20 inside the 10 that they were last year and it's been buddy it's been almost a month since san francisco railroaded dallas they've had time to fix some of these issues on defense

now you're never going to replace a digs or a vanderush but the more time you have the more schematically you can be sound in this sport. And, you know, they look really good against the Rams. Obviously, they scored a whole bunch of points. They look good defensively against the Chargers. And now the ability for Micah Parsons to sort of spy Jalen Hurts is really, really advantageous for me. And Hurts has not been good this year. Eight interceptions

already, which is an interception per game. They really can't run the ball like they have in years past. And I think Parsons and company are going to give them a very good game. Back to the number, though, this opens three, Philly three at home, and it hasn't moved. It hasn't even moved off the three. It never went to three and a half. It never went to four. There is a very sharp conglomerate in the desert that is loving the Bengals here. I know a couple guys that bet money line. I love the Bengals too. This is a game that could really go, could go either way, man. I mean, this is a game where I think I'll take the better defense getting three. I like the Eagles defensive line, but I do think the Cowboys have a better defense. We just saw Washington go up and down the field against Philly. Sam Howell is lighting them up. So I took three with Dallas and those are the two bets I made. Bears plus eight and a half

and Dallas Cowboys plus three. What is coaching or how does coaching matter for you? Because to me, Mike McCarthy is a guy that I don't like wagering on because I don't trust him. Does that ever play a role for you as well? Oh, of course. But it's more important to me in the playoffs. You know, I think regular season NFL, and again, I don't have to tell you this, you played football, I look like I do your taxes. I don't have to tell you that the regular season,

it kind of doesn't matter in a way. You know, I mean, we see these games. Arizona beats Dallas. A couple years ago, Jacksonville beats Buffalo. When Josh Allen was a rookie, Minnesota is a 17-point favorite at home, and they lose to Josh Allen. So weird stuff happens in the regular season. I think in the postseason, it's tougher for me to get behind Mike McCarthy. If Brandon Staley ever gets to the playoffs, it would be tough to get behind him. Matt Eberflus will not get to the playoffs before he gets fired, but I wouldn't be betting him. I think coaching is much more important in these

pressurized games, wildcard weekend, divisional round, conference championship, and of course, in the Super Bowl. That's why I like to bet your guy, Andy Reid. I mean, Kansas City, say what you want about Mahomes' weapons. You have Mahomes, you have Andy Reid, Travis Kelsey, and this team has not only been to, but hosted five straight AFC championships because they are a well-oiled machine and they are continuously preparing for these postseason runs. They've been there, they've done that. That is a coach that maybe might not get you there in the regular season because they're laying bigger numbers.

They're laying six. They're laying nine. They're laying 12. But in the playoffs, you don't see these big numbers. I mean, they're mostly seven or shorter. So that's where coaching comes in. It's hard to take a small number with a bad coach. Let's put it that way.

I am on the Chiefs this weekend against the Dolphins, expecting a bounce back. Is that too obvious of a play to be on the Chiefs in Germany? No, because you never get Kansas City minus one, minus two ever. Never. Unless they're on the road. But this is a neutral site game in Frankfurt, Germany. So I don't hate it.

In fact, I think the better play, not that I don't like the Chiefs, but I think the better play is to always bet these heavy hitters off a loss because Kansas City loses to Denver and people are like, oh, what's wrong with Kansas City? And it's like, you're never going to go 17 and 0, especially with the extra game though. Teams aren't going to go 17-0. It's also probably better that you lose a couple games so we can correct some of these correctables. But Kansas City going into last week was 4-1, 4-1 to win the Super Bowl. Now you can bet 5-1. So that 100 makes you a little extra scratch just because Kansas City lost a one-off in Denver, which is never really an easy place to play. So I think you're onto it there.

I like the Chiefs this week. I didn't make a position on the game, but I bet them 5-1 to win the Super Bowl in full anticipation that they're probably going to have the one, which they've had for years now in this AFC conference. And if they have the one and I have 5-1, they're going to be favored in that AFC title game. And then I could take the dog.

I could take the dog to win the game. I could take the dog to win the Super Bowl. And then I'm in the Super Bowl with some shape of a bet. So I think if you haven't done that yet, you know, maybe pancake your bet with a little Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at five to one because you have a dollar more value than you had last week. Yeah, and if they win this game, the number is going to disappear, right? It would be the worst number for the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.

Oh, forget 5-1. And especially, how about this? If they go out there and pound Miami, which is entirely possible. I mean, if Tua has a bad game or, God forbid, Tua gets knocked out, 31-10, and then that 5- one is now 425 again four to one yeah and then if they beat the eagles in two weeks it goes down and down and down to where they become a heavier favorite this number that there's a number i have not understood all week and i wonder if vegas is telling me something but i'm just not quite sure the bangles to me feel like they're

far better than two points at home against buffalo i feel like like this number hasn't adjusted to the Bengals playing better the last three weeks. Am I wrong to think this number is too low in Cincinnati? No, you're not. I mean, it's very popular to like Cincinnati this week. John Murray, who comes on Nessun every week, is 8-0 this year with his NFL best bets, and he picked Cincinnati. So I am crazy to think that I'm going to lay on the tracks for the

Buffalo bills. But conversely my friend, Eric Eager, who works at Sumer sports, he still has a very high power rating on Buffalo. You know, Buffalo is a team that I think a lot of people don't want to see in the playoffs.

You're shaking your head. You're like, I don't believe it. But from the, I believe Eric, I like Eric. I just, I just think that Buffalo is so high variance each week. They're just your head. You're like, I don't believe it. Look, from a math standpoint. I believe Eric. I like Eric. I just think that Buffalo is so high variance each week, they're just not trustworthy.

Would you be surprised if Josh Allen threw four touchdowns and they won? No, I'd be never surprised, but I equally wouldn't be surprised if he threw three interceptions and fumbled and they lost by two touchdowns. You know what I mean? I think that's Eric's point, though. He thinks this is a good correctionable spot for Buffalo i i don't have a single dollar on the game um i i think that it could honestly go either way i bet as i told you guys on bear bets

uh i wrote up 48 and a half over earlier in the week i just want both teams to have fun i want everybody to have orange slices after the game. But if this game goes the way I think it can, this could be 34 to 30. And to your point, it could be either way. So I feel like this is that Sunday night game that we deserve. We've had a lot of crap on Sunday night this year. We've had Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett and Jimmy G and Tyson Bajent. And we finally get Allen and Burrow. Let's give us what we deserve.

Let's give us what we deserve. Let's give us a lot of points here. But I think it's crazy to think that Buffalo can't win. You know, Buffalo has proven that they can have these big games. But I think the maddening part about being a Buffalo fan or a Buffalo better is that they are so wildly ranging. Like they can win by 20 and then they can lose to Tampa Bay. They didn't lose to Tampa, but they let Tampa cover in the back door. But yeah, that's a game that I could have made a case for either side.

I don't hate either part of the pendulum, but I just think we get points. Last game here before I – a couple questions about props and whatnot. Why are the Vegas Raiders favored over anyone right now? Antonio Pierce is taking over. No Jimmy G, right? Aiden O'Connell. Like, they're not a talented football team. Adams and Max Crosby are good.

Giants get Daniel Jones back. They're desperate for a win. I am baffled by the Raiders being a favorite here. Am I missing something? Only because they're at home. But, you know, clearly this number one and a half says that there's not much of a home field in Vegas. And that's one of those destination games where everybody rallies up the

troops and goes, Hey, let's go to Vegas for the weekend. So it's sort of a destination game. I look, the giants are still to most guys. They're either 30 or 31 in the power ratings. Arizona's 32 and the giants are either 30 or 31 from all the guys that I talk to. So while the Raiders are bad, I mean, the Giants did just have a quarterback who threw for eight yards last week, correct me if I'm wrong. You know? So it's – I mean, these are both – I told you I want Cincy and Buffalo

to both have fun. I want these teams to have no fun. I want them both to suffer. What's the total at right now? 30 at 37. Did they get to 37? Did they get there? It's 37.

There's a 37.5 too somewhere. No. It opened 39.5 too. It opened that high. Wow. Yeah. Are you going to bet that game? I'm thinking about the giants yeah i the raiders the raiders should not be favored over anyone and they i don't believe

in like the coaching change bump i think people feel that the coaching change equals like a better team the raiders aren't any good sammy like what are they going to do in this game that was worthy of them winning this game? I can't – the Giants need to win in the worst way, obviously. Last week was atrocious. But Daniel Jones being back makes them a competent team. I didn't realize, though, that their power rate is like 31, though. I thought it would be like 26.

That kind of worries me now. 31, huh? Tomato, tomato, right? 26, 31. What's it matter? You ain't going to win anything at the end of the day. So, wait. So, who's 32? The Panthers? The Panthers are 32, I imagine, right? 26, 31. What's it matter? You ain't going to win anything at the end of the day. So who's 32? The Panthers? The Panthers are 32, I imagine, right? Arizona.

Arizona. The Panthers are ahead of the Giants. Wow. The Panthers have actually, like, you know, they put up some points on Miami. The Panthers are, I think the Panthers are getting better. Now, you know, what's, like, they're not good.

Like they're probably a 2 out of 10, but maybe before the season they were a 1. So, you know, there's a little growth there, and I think Bryce Young eventually will be okay, assuming they keep the right pieces around him. But if you're looking for a bet in that Giants and Raiders game, I would much rather you take the Giants. These two-point teasers, if you find the right numbers, you can get minus 125, minus 130. I would much rather you tease the Giants up through three and through seven. You could take

them from a one-and-a-half-point dog to a seven-and-a-half-point dog. And then let's go back to Carolina here. You don't want to lay two-and-a-half or take two-and-a-half. Okay, let's knock it up to eight-and-a-half. You lay. You lay an eight and a half with Gardner Minshew on the road? No, no, no chance. I think that's an easer that probably has a lot of life there where you take the Raiders and you take the Carolina Panthers, move them both up through three and seven. It makes it a lot more attainable and the sweat is a lot less. You're not needing to win the game outright because games don't really land one in the NFL. I'd much rather you sweat Giants plus 7.5 than Giants plus 1.5.

How much teasers or how many teasers and parlays do you play in a weekend? Or is that just more advice for the listeners? Parlays, never. But I should probably make that. Actually, hold on. Let me make that teaser right now because I know it's going to hit. I want to make that actually hold on let me make that teaser right now because i know it's gonna hit i'm gonna make that i went to my thing too i did i like that teaser a lot i'm gonna do that too i mean it just look like it's it's making ugly teams less ugly

by making ugly favorites atrocious you know you're not gonna lay one and a half with the raiders probably but you're definitely not gonna lay one and a half with the Raiders probably, but you're definitely not going to lay seven and a half with the Raiders, you know, so that it makes an ugly dog a little bit more like it's like putting lipstick on a pig, essentially. So I'll make the occasional teaser or two. I actually had a teaser pick last week on Fox. I think I teased the Bengals to 10 against the Niners. And then I teased, I can't remember the second leg of the teaser, but was able to get home. The occasional teaser never parlays. I never parlay. And I still have friends back in Chicago where I grew up that will, you know, they'll send me their screenshots on Sunday morning and it's a 14 leg teaser or 14 leg parlay, excuse me. And it's always the screenshot followed by the, what do you think?

And then I'm like, yeah, you got a winner there. And then they'll text me all kinds of stuff during the day. They're like, I only hit 12 out of 14. I'm so close. Yeah, imagine if you cut that parlay down to five legs that you actually liked. Well, that's no fun. Well, you're the perfect mark. You're the guy that everybody wants

because your $10 parlay every Sunday, that's going to never win over the course of 18 weeks, 10 times 18 is it adds up. So these parlays are, uh, especially NFL prop parlays. We, you got, you know, eight receivers in the game over, and then, you know, you got both quarterbacks to throw three touchdowns and it just never works out that way. Parleys kill. I've always thought that, Illinois, when Illinois first launched betting in 2020, the first NFL season in Illinois, the houses, the books held 44% on parlays. No way. So yeah, that's insanity. I mean, Vegas doesn't hold anywhere near 44%, but the parlays are what keep driving the business. And, you know, a couple of years ago, this has actually come down a little bit. I used to get these push notifications to my phone

in Chicago and it would say, Hey, make sure you make your same game parlay. Kickoff is an hour away. And I'm like, that's like selling crack to crack heads. You know, like how can you push that to my phone? Well, they push it because it's a loss leader for the players. Oh, people love those. Les, before I let you go here, do you play props at all? Because I'm lacking very much in the prop market. I don't have the brain space to figure out prop market I don't have the the brain space

to figure out props I'm not I don't have like a a system to get props going I just I just play quarterback unders a bunch because I see like these bad quarterbacks and it hits more often than not I feel like but I can't do props are you a prop guy not really I think there's just too much variance you know the the common thing now on social media is, you know, content creator X, Y, or Z looks at the box score and, oh, this has happened in four out of six games. It'll happen again. And we never take into account who the opponent was.

Was it raining? Was it snowing? But that's – everybody's doing props now. I did bet, as you know, I bet Levis last night to throw a pick. He should have had four in the fourth quarter. Let's play props now. I did bet, as you know, I bet Levis last night to throw a pick. He should have had four in the fourth quarter. They kept dropping balls in their hands. He was trying to give the ball away for the whole quarter. And he finally threw one at the end. I don't, I would say if like,

I made you a pie chart in the NFL would be like 40% totals, 40% sides, 10% teasers, and 10% props. Like the occasional prop I will bet. I did bet Tyson Bajan over 29 and a half attempts this week against New Orleans. They're probably going to be down in that game and he's going to have to throw the ball a lot. So I do have that out there, but very, very small catalog of props for me i i applaud the people that are good at it but it's just it's not something that i could do when i was younger you know when i was a kid when i was 15 16 17 we didn't have props we had sides we had totals and we had parlays and that was it and i think that the younger generation is into more of the parlays and the props where i was

always a sides and the totals guy yeah i don't have the brain with to do the props thing plus the the the thing you mentioned is funny when people especially baseball like up it's got to hit four out of six games it's going to be a hit in game seven you're like oh how does that make sense i don't really get the the logic behind that wager you're just making or to telling me to make i remember there was a there was a content creator last year and i've stopped going at these content creators because then people label me, right? Like I'm a hater or I hate this or I hate that. And it's really not that worth it anymore.

But there was a content creator that put out a best bet lock prop that this had hit in three of the last four games. So I went and looked at that person's last 30 games and it had only hit intent so we are shaping the stats now because i'm assuming this person knew that oh it was three out of four but then it was 10 out of 30. so even in that light we are we are taking the same stat and we are shaping it to fit our narrative and i think that's the problem with a lot of the content in the space. So be on the lookout guys for those. Do not, do not wager on those, please. Only listen to Sammy. Listen to Sammy's wagers. It's a, it's a, he, he'll make you some money. Sammy, I appreciate you joining us.

Thank you so much. This is very valuable for a lot of our listeners to learn about the ins and outs of this. So I don't just blabber about the the the games that i like appreciate you buddy thank you thank you and hey remember we are going to bet the brown bears tomorrow yes we can get plus six yes brown brown brown's hosting yale tomorrow plus six if we can get it we're taking it the line will be out about 10 a.m so make make sure to check that out. Sammy, thank you so much, buddy. I appreciate it.

Thanks, Jeff. Are you smarter than your friends? Prove it with Vaulted by predicting, challenging, and beating them with your sports knowledge. Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D, is a place where you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees, and prove you are smarter than your friends by using the Vaulted Challenge feature.

I will have my own pool on Vaulted each week. We can answer questions to win cash prizes. And there are no entry fees required to participate. This football season, Vaulted will be handing out money. The only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of the regular season pools, which won't happen because as you know, I am smarter than you. I will be using Vaulted to make and store my five favorite predictions of the week. So join Vaulted and you can like, dislike, comment, interact with my predictions, or if you're bold enough, you can make your own and see how smart you are in football, which won't be as smart as me. Go download Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D,

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you're competing against other people it's just you versus projections available instead of battling thousands of other players including pros and sharks so follow along my weekly entry and see if you can do better remember go to prize picks and use code g S S Y for first deposit match up to $100. All right, guys, we're back here. We're trying to get rid of a Sammy's box here, but we're back. We're going to do what we do every Friday. Now where we pick the game, except Matt's not here. Unfortunately, again, congratulations to Matt and Ivy.

Fantastic. Matt, I've been texting. We texted yesterday about our five picks the week. Now, again, we are 26-11-3, so we're having a good roll. I could not do this without Matt, okay? So we talked. We're ready to go. I'm not going to go over every game, but I'll tell you sort of where we're leaning, what picks we are going to take, and what the numbers are at the current time

because, of course, we can take the numbers as they are. So the first game of the weekend is the one in Germany. It is the Chiefs and Dolphins. Matt and I both are on Kansas City. So Kansas City will be a pick. It is actually now we see some minus ones. We'll take Kansas City minus one here. We're both of the opinion that Kansas City is going to have a bounce back game.

We're both of the opinion that you never get the opportunity to bet Kansas City at this number ever. the opinion that you never get the opportunity to bet Kansas City at this number ever. And the game last weekend, throughout the flu thing for Mahomes, everyone's using that as an excuse, but he shouldn't play as well. It was the lowest EPA game for this offense since Pat Mahomes has begun starting quarterback. They're going to bounce back. They're going to be fine. I never worry about Kansas City in a game against the Dolphins.

I worry much more about Kansas City in a game against the Broncos. Their defense is still very good. The Dolphins get pushed around, as we've seen against now the Eagles and the Bills. They're not as good. The Chiefs defense can push the Dolphins around. There's a little bit of me that thinks, too, there's going to be like a little too much from Tyreek.

There's going to be a little bit too much in this game. They're going to It's a little too much in this game. They're going to try a little bit too hard in this game to show the Chiefs what they're missing. So I like Kansas City here minus the one. Sammy mentioned the Bears and Saints. I had nothing on that game. He likes the Bears. I would advise if Sammy says it, I would take it.

He's a good resource to do that with. The Browns and Cardinals. I've been on a Cardinals fade. You guys know this. We didn't have him last week. We had him two weeks before that. They covered last week at the very end of that game. The Browns have announced that Deshaun Watson will play in this game.

That number has ballooned up to 10 now. Just no play on this whatsoever, even though, again, fading the Cardinals has been very good for me and for us the last five weeks, except last weekend, obviously, they covered. But again, if you've been doing it last month or so, you've made money. The Cardinals are just not very good. You heard Sammy say, lowest rated team in the NFL. If you took a Clayton

Toon here, who might start for the Cardinals here, is under his passing prop. That's how I would play this game. I think with the Browns at the 10, you could tease the Browns seven the brown seven point teaser down i guess if you wanted to but maybe just stay away here rams packers complete stay away not going to touch that one at all matthew stafford may or may not play the packers are now officially on but do not wager on list nick put it down do not wager on the packers ever again we did it last weekend they're out i'm just

never going to do it again. It's not going to happen. I think we're 0 for the season betting on them. We have the Vikings. I mentioned Vikings-Falcons. Sam mentioned the points here in this game. Not changing very much with Cousins out. It's true.

Vikings favored by four. I think I would leave Minnesota, but we have we have no plan this game whatsoever uh seahawks ravens this game is now out to um to six to six oh man i saw a number that said lamar jackson is 3 and 14 against the spread of favor by three and a half points or more this field this line feels off um it feels like vegas telling you that Baltimore is far better than Seattle. Look at Seattle. Last three weeks, right? A win against the – lost against the Bengals at that poor red zone.

We talked about that. We joked about it on the show. Barely covering against the Cardinals. We hit Seattle in that game. The last weekend was a funky game against the Browns. The number was anywhere from 3.5 to 4.5. Landed on 4. They should have won that game.

I was leaning Seattle, but Matt and I talked it through. We have no play on this one for us. The game we are going to play here, one we both liked, is Houston. There is some 2.5s right now. Houston is hosting the Tampa Bay Bucs. We're going to say that last weekend for Houston was a bad game. They lost the Panthers. We were on the Panthers in that game.

It just wasn't a good game for them. But we both think they're better than the Bucs. And anytime you can basically bet against Baker Mayfield, I think you have to do that. And so we're playing Houston here, Mine's a 2.5 right now. Yeah, but Houston's DVOA is 16. I mean, like, they're 16. Tampa Bay's 22. Tampa Bay offense is 25.

I mean, Tampa Bay's just not a good team. So I'm perfectly okay taking Houston here. Houston is getting 2.5 points. There's a 2.5 out. We're taking a 2.5. There's one at South Point right now. There's one on some of the other apps you can wager on. So two and a half for us in that game.

That's our second game we're going to have here. The Commanders are at the Patriots. Now, we're 0-3 this season wager on the Patriots, but we're not going to wager on the Patriots in this game. We're going to wager on the Commanders. Now, this number yesterday when Matt and I talked was 3.5. It's no longer 3.5. It's now 3.

So we're going to take the 3 anyways. This is one Matt liked, and it wasn't my favorite, but we've done this show this year where we kind of are trusting each other because it's been working out for us, obviously, that we've been doing this. His point, I get his point, is that, like, why is Mac Jones laying three to anyone? It's a fair point. Sam Howell has looked decent the last couple of weeks.

He's looked more improved the last couple of weeks. My counter to Matt's point was, like, look, man, Washington traded Sweat and Young, and there could be a a deflation from the team basically saying like hey man we're we're not trying anymore and whether or not the team sort of gives up in that situation give up is the wrong word to use but doesn't play as hard right doesn't have that much passion preparing for this week. So that could be something that – I'll put it like this. It worried me.

It worried me. But in the end, Matt Jones is getting three points, and you just can't do that. Like you just can't bet Matt Jones getting three points. There's no reason why he should have three points. So we're going to take Washington in this spot. Next up on the list, the afternoon games. I like the Panthers plus the three, plus the two and a half.

We're going to sit that one out, though. The Colts rush defense is really good. And I just – excuse me, the Colts rush offense is good. The Panthers rush defense is bad we're sitting that one out eagles cowboys sammy as you heard is on cowboys plus three i just it's one matt like two we decided not to take because i i would play philly here um even though i don't love it but i just the cowboys to me they're such a front-running team if they're up early in a game i almost want to live bet them whatever number they're at because they're such a front-running team. If they're up early in a game, I almost want to live bet them

whatever number they're at because they're going to play much better. If they're behind in a game, they're just not the same team. They don't rush the passer as well. Dak gets a little bit tight. But I think the Eagles are not as good as they were last year, which we know. Jalen Hurts' knee, by the way, one rush last weekend outside of the tush pushes, not quite as good. I'm going to sit this one out.

Just going to watch this game. We'll sit it out as a group uh next up on the list here um is the giants uh and raiders we're taking the giants here um it is a minus assuming we get we get plus two points here for the giants i do not understand why the raiders are favored in this game i mean maybe we're totally off on this one but daniel Jones comes back for the Giants. Looks like Saquon's going to play. Looks like Andrew Thomas for left tackle might play. So they're getting sort of everyone back healthy. So you have to throw out last weekend, right?

Last weekend was Tyrod Taylor, who was a Tommy DeVito quarterback. Throw that one out. Defense played well last weekend. I know Leonard Williams is gone. I get that. But the Raiders just shuffled everything. Fired their coach. Fired their coach, fired their OCs. They have a new coach right now,

new quarterback, Aiden O'Connell. Giants desperate for a win in this spot after losing the Jets last weekend. So we're rolling with the Giants here at plus two. And our last wager for the weekend is going to be the Bengals. Let's look what the line is right now. It's twos across the board.

So we'll take the minus two here. As I mentioned to Sammy, I think this line has not been adjusted to how well the Bengals have played lately because the Bengals are playing good football right now. They're the second or third best team in the AFC behind the Chiefs, and you could argue they're playing better football than the Chiefs. And when they're back, I'm taking them in this game against Buffalo. Remember last year before DeMar Hamlin had his heart incident,

the Bengals were rolling in that game. They had scored seven points. They forced a three and out, and they were driving down the field again to go up 10 or 14 points. The playoff game last year, in the snow, the Bengals dominated that game. The Bengals, I think sort of have their number right now. And Buffalo,

as I mentioned to me, feels too much, too much, too much variance, man. I don't know what I'm getting from them. And defensively they're, they're just different without Milano,

without, without white in there. So I'll take the Bengals here. And the last game of the weekend, we're not playing as jets charges. If you take the jets to meet the chargers on the road here,'re losing your own money that's just that's just just don't do it so to recap before we get to the vaulted picks i'm gonna put this these five picks in the vaulted app before we get to vaulted pool stuff here we go ready kansas city minus one houston minus two and a half.

Washington plus three. Giants plus two. Bengals minus two. That's what we're playing this week. These are picks that Matt and I chose. We have some new dad luck for Matt on the Matt side. So let's get to the vaulted pool for this week.

Remember, go to the vaulted app. Download the app. VLTED, find me, G-O-F-F, join my pool, cash prizes each week, free to join, $500 total, four in first place,

75 bucks second place, 25 third place. And if you beat me in the pool, which some weeks is easier than others, last week was a bad week for me, you're entered into the $5,000 pool for the big game. Go to the Vaulted app. Ton of fun.

We do this each and every week. There's 20 predictions. You agree or disagree. You put a confidence of 1 to 10. I just started doing 10 for all of them. Why not? So here's some ones I like here. Miles Garrett, I have more than one sack against the Cardinals.

I will go agree here. Their offensive line is not up to task against Miles Garrett. And the Browns' defense has not been as good lately, but Miles Garrett's incredible. He's the best player on the field. Best player on the field. Texans will cover a three-and-a-half against the Bucs here. That's obviously an old number.

I guess I would say agree on this one, even though we have this number at two-and-a-half. So I would say yes, C one, even though we have this number at two and a half. So I would say yes, CJ Stroud will agree. CJ Stroud will pass more 1.5 touchdowns. Agree. I don't think the Texans are winning this game if Stroud doesn't do that. We get a good number here.

Patriots will cover three and a half against the Commanders. Disagree, because we like the Commanders to cover this game, especially at three and a half. And also Mac Jones and more passing after Sam Howell. Disagree. Like Sam Howell's going to throw for more yards. That is the offense round.

They do not run the ball in Washington. We have here, Raiders will cover the two and a half against the Giants. I disagree there. We think the Giants,

I think the Giants outright win that game. Giants will score more than 18 and a half points against the Raiders. I agree with that one as well. Here's a fun one. C.D. Lamb will have

more receiving yards than A.J. Brown. I will disagree even though Lamb and Dak have had a good connection, but Brown is just – him and Tyreek Hill need to be considered for MVPs. They're playing fantastic this season. So I'll take – I'll disagree with that. I'll go with A.J. Brown here. And that's it for the vaulted pool this week.

Again, there's 20 questions. Those are the ones I like. You go through all of them. Again, download the vaulted app, VLTED me jeff with a g goff and join the pool we're getting more entries each week we really love it for you guys to join and play along with me you can challenge me as well using the challenge feature on the app all right everyone it has been a fun podcast uh glad for sam to join us. Hope you guys enjoyed a little difference in what we do. Hopefully Matt is back soon.

Hope we get him back next week. We'll see. If not, we'll do some more interviews. We'll have some more picks. We'll continue to roll right along. Have a great weekend of sports, everyone. We'll talk to you guys on Monday.