Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - GSSY Week 1 5 Best Bets

Episode Date: September 9, 2023

it's friday september 8th i'm jeff schwartz this is jeff schwartz asmar and you were live on twitter on youtube and on your favorite podcast platform we're brought to you by the vaulted app the home of my season long game giving out 14 000 of cash prizes in my pools with an additional 5 000 allotted to my final pool this season which will be the day of the big game. Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D, is a place where you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash pool prizes without any entry fees, and prove you're smarter than your friends and myself by using the Vaulted Challenge feature.

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Remember to use code Jeff. That's G-E-O-F-F. So you can see my predictions and play along. Matt Ford, buddy, we had one game in the books. We have an entire weekend of NFL action. I cannot wait. What we do each year, each week of the NFL season is we go through all the games.

We choose our five favorite wagers. We're going to play in the Super Contest. In any contest, you could do this on Super Contest. Any contest on any app of your choosing. With all the games we previewed. And this year, we're adding in the Volta predictions that we have for our pool as well. Matthew, one game in the book, buddy.

The Lions beat the Chiefs. And the week one reactions are out of control. I can take it already i can't take it matt well tell me i mean we should start there first of all thanks for having me back thanks to vaulted i i just put in my uh if you saw me taking a peek at my phone i entered this pool i don't even know if that's allowed because i'm on the show and we're gonna agree together a a lot. But, hey, you know, I'm in this pool anyway. So, let's see how it goes. I answered your questions earlier. It's a lot of fun, man.

It's going to be good. It's really fun. It's easy. I really enjoyed doing it. Yeah. And we can chat on this thing. It's great. It's going to be good.

But nonetheless, Chiefs lose 21-20 last night. And look, the Lions scored 14 points on offense and won the game. Like, that typically is not going to happen for Chiefs games. Kadarius Toney was the lowest graded player and wide receiver, according to Profitable Focus, since 2018. Like, the Chiefs offense wasn't – there were some up and down periods. The projection was hit or miss. But even without Travis Kelsey, the Chiefs should have won this game.

It's okay to have a takeaway of the old lions would lose this game right right matt so like the new lions winning the game is very impressive but let's not act like they were markedly better than the chiefs um you know the reactions of oh the chiefs needed chris jones well they need chris jones anyways but not from this game lions scored 14. They rushed the ball before the final drive, I think, for like four yards a carry. They threw for, what, 230, I think it was. Jared Goff, maybe 260. They rushed the passer okay.

Like, the defense was fine. I saw the takeaway. Eric Bien-Ami, what about Eric Bien-Ami? They called the same dumb plays with Andy Reid. Those short yardage plays are still like, they're still the same plays for years. Andy Reid calls the offense, right? Like, I'm not freaking out. The Chiefs are going to be fine.

But they don't have a number one wide receiver yet. And they got to find that person. Yeah, that was my big takeaway. There isn't, I don't think, a ton to take away for this season. Great job for the Lions. Great win for the Lions fans. Like, good for them for stepping up to the moment, right? But it did make me wonder like

why didn't they get deandre hopkins like why didn't they go make a move for one of these receivers that you know maybe in a few weeks like if somebody you know if one of these teams like were to fall out of contention like the cardinals and they say like hey anybody interested in hollywood brown like i just think the Chiefs need to go for it because Travis Kelsey, obviously, if Travis Kelsey plays that game, I think they would have won, right? There was probably like a couple of third downs.

There was that drop. I mean, Tony's two drops lost them the game, essentially the pick six. And then the one when they got the ball back at the two minute drill. So, you know, it's just like the Chiefs have such a small margin for error because they're so top-heavy in these three guys. It kind of reminded me of the Rams the year they won the Super Bowl

where you're just sort of like, oh, if you take two of them away, like, they're beatable. But they still almost won anyway. If Sky Moore makes that catch on that fourth down, like, somehow they could have won the game. So, I wouldn't be too discouraged if I were a chiefs fan no um it's a long season um mike evans will be available i'd call mike evans yeah like this just chiefs just do it man just like go make it happen just trade for mike evans and be done with it um i don't know why they're not going to do it but that's what that's what i would

do again defense was i thought defense was fine even if you even if you if that the lions score that drive you allow 21 points on the one they fumbled like that's that's winnable in kansas city it's always been yeah um all right so let's get to our games so here's what we're going to do is 15 games left for the week we're going to go through all of them someone we're going to skip the first game we're not talking about more than all of seven seconds i promise you that the rest of them we'll talk about maybe more. And we'll give you our five favorite and last year and every year, Matt, we are about 500 hoping to break that the NFL is the hardest to wager on.

It is difficult. There are barely any edges except week one. I think there's a lot of edges in week one. We've had good week ones in the past, Matt, hoping to keep it up again. And we're going to take the numbers as they, as they come in,

like some weeks, there'll be better, some weeks they're not. This week, me and you personally have wagers with better numbers than we have now. You're going to have to suck it up and take what we can give you a time of recording. So let's go to the first game and spend seven seconds on it and move on. So is your first game Falcons-Panthers? Because I actually do think. so the line that we're seeing super contest line is three and a half i'm not going to spend a lot of time on it jeff but i will say that i'm kind of intrigued by the falcons uh they're playing at home here's the here's let

me just pitch you because people listening to this actually want to make money just you don't you don't want to make this bad i know what's that you're gonna i know what's that you're gonna say i know you're gonna say john ewing the john you talk about it go ahead no go you tell me you're the smart quarter the number one pick in the first week of the season oh and 13 gets a spread right yes that's right the last time that that happened was david carr uh back in when i think they beat the cowboys in like a very hyped game that for some reason i still remember clearly so it's more of a like I think Atlanta is an impossible team like what are they gonna do on offense like I just feel like we have no clue what that offense is gonna look like Frank Reich has never won a week one game and I the three and a half sucks and the Falcons are

always in these close games but this one is like it's not in my five but it's like in my seven that i like this week i really do think the falcons are not a terrible play here wow panthers without brian burns if you can get a three which you can't find anymore i would definitely take the falcons but in the contest it's three and a half and we're gonna have better options um dude if you the the way you win the nfl is you you lay you have to not lay number whatever layer take points on stinky teams like i get that the falcons oh and week one i i i don't know man the panthers aren't bad i mean brian burns playing would would help the panthers a lot obviously i don't know what his status is as a friday but um all right i mean

i'll put it down here as one of the maybes oh no we're not gonna take it so like we have plenty of other games we like but i wanted to make the pitch um just to at least get a rise out of you okay but we can definitely save some time all right let's let's save some time i like the whatever's website nick used what they're calling this team that's hosting the cardinals uh there's three teammates what did he use i don't whatever whatever it's definitely not vaulted who would never do something like this um so we've got uh the the commanders hosting the cardinals uh seven is the contest line. I think that's still firm everywhere.

I'll just save us some time here and say that if you're willing to bet Sam Howling seven points in his first ever game, I don't care who the other quarterback is. God bless. This is a hard pass for me, even though I am probably taking Washington and Survivor this week because when are you going to use them again? So I'm, that's my take there. The survivor thing, by the way, we talked about this on, on bear bets, not to promote another podcast I do, but the conclusion was take Seattle, that everyone's taking Washington. And if they just happen to lose this week, you're screwed and knocks out like set price, 70% of the contest, right?

Like there's always a week one game where you're like, it could be Baltimore, where it's Baltimore or Washington. Or, oh God, the teaser that's going to be the Washington Vikings teaser is going to be so gross. And someone's going to lose that teaser for someone. Vikings are our commanders. But let's go to the next game, which I think a game that we are going to wager on.

Okay, let's see. The Bengals are at the browns the contest line is two and a half uh for the bangles they're laying two and a half on the road at deshaun watson's browns that's moved to two um so if we're taking this we're taking the contest line two and a half yeah what are think? I love the Browns here, man. We know that divisional dogs in week one are a great wager. And we got away from trends last year. I think it actually helped us. But this is one I think that holds true. You have a Browns team that, again, we talk about this all the time.

It's hard to root for the quarterback, right? Like it just is. You've got a very good football team, Matt. You've got a really good football team. Like it is a very talented football team. And if you're under the assumption that Deshaun Watson is better this season, maybe he's never as good as he was in Houston three or four years ago, but just better this season, just runs the offense to proficiency,

they're great. Not great so little much maybe, but they have the possibility of being an excellent football team. The Bengals on the other side, Joe Burrow's playing this week, but how mobile is he going to be against that browns pass rush right like how mobile will he be in the pocket kind of figuring out how to work off his calf so i like the browns here i think the browns most likely win this game outright but this is a game like right in our wheelhouse man like this is right what we what you have to do in the nfl is take these home dogs in these divisional matchups in week one all in on the brouts i like it jeff uh also you know let's

remember joe burrow didn't really get much for preseason didn't get much practice time the bangles always seem to start fairly slow if you remember they lost that crazy game last year uh to pittsburgh and then everyone was kind of writing them off in the beginning of last season, where they, you know, they, they tend to heat up when, when it matters, at least they have in the past. Joe Burrow also won in four against the Browns in his career. So just weird, just not a great matchup for him. And I think, you know, I think people are going to be really hot on the Browns in a few weeks, and this is a good good a good chance to get them sort of buying low I love this one I think this is a no-brainer for us I'm with you let's go next one man easy done one down right one down brother uh all right Texans Baltimore

uh this line has moved a bunch I think it's sort of resting oh it's back down to nine and a half um either way this is a pass for me because the play would be houston and no thank you um any thoughts here or should we uh just save people time there's some fun things in the vaulted pool this week uh for this game that this is why vaulted's fun because you get to talk about the game a little bit differently right because we're not wager on this game there's no chance um will lamar jack Jackson have more total touchdowns than the Houston Texans team? That's fun. That's really fun.

I think the answer is probably yes. I mean, honestly, like the thing with Baltimore is they do seem to like, they tend to start pretty hot and they tend to blow out bad teams. Like they love to be up. They love to sort of like rub it in it feels like they're they're the kind of team that loves to just like they fire on all cylinders when they can kind of coast i will say though like this is the pros game of the week like the only people betting houston are pros and it's all like the difference between bets and money here i've i just lost it but there's oh my action

network subscription just expired i have to email scott miller for a free one um so damn it expired today apparently because i was on this all day yesterday that's so funny um shout out to my guy scott so anyways when this is the game where everyone's like look there's you know if you look back to week one last year a ton of close games like there were a ton of three-point games there were a few there were a few beatdowns and oddly baltimore i think was one of them that that had that won by a bunch of points um but usually these week one games are close i think tomeco ryan's is just gonna lift that team and they're gonna fight and you know it's just a problem with cj stroud on the road so if you're like have to pick this one take the texans and wait maybe for the 10 but i wouldn't be shocked if that keeps coming

down because all the pros are just hammering the 10 it's it's kind of bizarre yeah um it and two the thing about it too is like you can't – this is not even a teaser number, right? Like you're not – you're teasing it through to seven, I guess, but you're not even getting it under the three. Like this is a – Sharps are like – not Sharps Vegas, like just they're begging you to basically take Houston, right? That's what we're trying to do here? They are.

Yeah. Well, I don't know. I don't know what they're trying to do, but they're not taking any of my money on this one. No. Maybe the next game we'll take our money, though. Uh-oh. What do you think?

I'm going to put my foot down if you make this argument. So Jacksonville going to Indy where they haven't won in, I think, six years. They are laying four and a half now. That is the contest line is five. Yeah. So the Colts would probably be the play here oh i i guess holy i'm i'd be on the colts in a heartbeat here um okay talk to me well here's the here's the reason why is i think jacksonville doesn't know what the what the colts are gonna do on offense

because anthony richardson did not play very much in the preseason. And Shane Steichen has said, we're going to RPO teams to death. And they don't know what that's going to look like in week one. And there's going to be some plays that Richardson makes that are going to get yards and eventually score points. He might throw some interceptions. I don't know if that's going to be part of it. But I think, Matt, there's an unknown factor here to the colts offense that leads me to believe

they can cover this game defensively they're not terrible either right jacksonville we we love jacksonville this year there's this offseason darling kind of talk about jacksonville um i think the colts can hang in this game and cover the five. I don't know if they win, but I think that the, the, the factor of just not knowing what Richardson's going to do on offense with the plays,

which again, you can lean the opposite direction and say, well, I'm never wagering on the guy that I don't know what I'm going to see in week one. But I think he can, I think he can play man. And I think that they're gonna find chance i can

remember good as a chargers with herbert good with with with uh with with jalen hurts i i think we could see one of those games in week one for richardson you know where he throws for 175 and rushes for 120. i i hadn't considered this one um mainly because of the thing you just said which is you know i'm gonna have a hard time betting on a quarterback who's never played in the nfl in week one with a rookie coach against a team that we do like having said all of that like this is the classic spot where you would take the colts um the counter is like you know anthony richardson won six games in the sec last year he's going against doug peterson like that they could score seven points and you know the jags also you know i have i'm one of the guys on the trevor lawrence might be in the mvp conversation group

this year and falling flat on his face week one would not support that case so I have a little bit of cognitive dissonance here I think the Colts are the play the five is pretty nice the fact that it's moving back down I think it's proof that people are sort of thinking the way you are which I think is smart so I'm willing to put this as a maybe but I if it's our sixth I will probably go yeah I just don't have any others that I truly like. And so this is one of them that I think I do. I have others. Well, the next one we love.

We've talked about this for weeks, so that won't be a hard one for us. But there's not a lot of other ones I really, really love. But we do have to save a spot for your favorite play every week, which is something that we decided to do last year, which is pay dividends for us. The Matt Ford favorite play of the week i'm always like god i hate that freaking play and it hits and then i feel bad about it so we started to add that to the show of our five um all right matt let's get to the next game which um we've talked about this

game for two months now yeah we've had it in our we've we've bet it i actually have this at three and a half and at three it's down to two and a half. The Steelers are getting two and a half points against the 49ers in Pittsburgh. If you've listened to this show before, hopefully you've gotten the three and a half or the three, but I still think two and a half is a good play. I still think the money line, which I'm looking at my phone, sorry,

is about plus one 10, depending where you look, you can even do a little bit better at some of the books out there. I think the Steelers are a really smart play for a couple of reasons. The first is Mike Tomlin as an underdog. We've talked about this over and over again on this show. We love backing him in this spot. He's the most profitable coach of all time as a home dog i'm pulling up his record now 14 5 and 2 against the spread and 13 and 8 outright as a home underdog so that means he has a winning record as a home underdog straight up last year with tj watt the sealers were eight and two when he was when he played that's straight up and against the spread um also like this is just crazy against on the money line

the steelers the last six years were profitable as underdogs like they win games as underdogs they're not great when they're favorites when they're road favorites they're terrible yeah but you know who also struggles as a road favorite is kyle shanahan that's his worst split and also in week one the steelers are three and oh i think both straight up and against the spread in their last three and this and the 49ers oh and three in their last three uh week one game so every trend tells you the steelers plus we've got brock purdy we don't know exactly what he's going to be we didn't have the great preseason opportunity for him um so you know i just think the steelers team is going to be we didn't have the great preseason opportunity for him um so you know i just think

this steelers team is going to be more cohesive i've loved this play for three months you know you know i want to take it oh no we're taking this play there's no there's no question about it um and three of of of our pool questions for vaulted cover this game like there's a lot to talk about in this game um you mentioned brock purdy coming back from injury in year two, but how about TJ Watt against whoever plays right tackle for the Niners? Like that's a concern of mine. Like Pittsburgh's defense outside of, excuse me, Pittsburgh's defense against Niners offense outside of Trent Williams,

I think is a big advantage for Pittsburgh. Also, I'm just super high on Pittsburgh's offense this season. And I understand that the niners defense is really good like there's no doubt about that this is not like an anti niners offensive thing i mean there's even but like i think pittsburgh offense can can move the ball this season and on in many different ways and we we love pickings as well you mentioned mike thomas underdog this hits everything that we like about about wagering and sealers win this game outright i'll take the the the two and a half points anyways um but you

said everything like this is this is a game that for us in our podcast we will wager on each and every time so uh give me pittsburgh here plus two and a half um all right next game um yeah uh not not the most fun yeah so it's uh the the new look tampa bay bucks uh are going to minnesota um this is another pros game that people tend to love uh the contest line here why am i not finding this the contest line is six uh it's moved around all week i think it's down to five and a half um everyone's trusting that the bucks that the vikings are this team that can't close teams out that they were up and down last year that they're going to regress baker mayfield is the is the quarterback for the bucks this bucks team that feels so disjointed to me i'm i'm a vikings backer this

year i would not take them obviously here um but i'm curious if you're with the pros and want to make the case for tampa oh no no case whatsoever there's zero case i want to make here i mean to me yeah there's no case. What's the case? You have Baker Mayfield as your quarterback, an unhappy wide receiver, an offensive line that's moving parts and new, a defense that's good but aging against a Vikings team that, I don't know, sort of good at times. They were good last year.

They take a step back. It's just baker mayfield like matt do you want to be down 10 points if you're if you have the bucks here and becky mayfield's driving down the field to cover the game like no absolutely not so uh no chance we're playing this game um everyone's gonna put the vikings in a teaser god bless you good luck um i'm not doing that i'm up i haven't done even a teaser. God bless you. Good luck. I'm not doing that. I haven't done even a teaser yet. I probably will at some point, but I'm not putting them in that teaser. Yeah, I'm not either. This is just a total stay-away game.

I will remind people, though, that last year's week one, when Kevin O'Connell was a new coach, the Vikings absolutely dominated the Packers, I think, in Green Bay. I think they won by double digits. I think it was like 19 to six or something like that. So they do tend, I mean, at least last year they started hot. This is going to kill people one way or the other. It's either going to kill people in Survivor if they take Minnesota, or it's going to kill people where they all back Tampa and throw Tampa in a tease and say, Minnesota, they were never going to blow anyone

out. Every game was close. They suck. I think I can't tell what the narrative is going to be. So pass for us. The last one o'clock game is another game that I think we're going to be, we're going to have a lively discussion about, and that's the Titans visiting the Saints. This line has hovered around three forever, even though there's a ton of public interest in the Titans as a dog. I know that we sort of straddle the sharp public more, more public than sharp on this show. Count me in with the public, Jeff. I'm eager to make the case for Tennessee. If you're, if you're willing to listen.

Go ahead, man. I had no, I have no feel on this, on this game. Like I, I have none whatsoever than I don't. I think we think the Titans I have no feel on this game. I have none whatsoever. I think the Titans are going to be great this season. But I have no idea. Go ahead. Well, it's mostly a case for Vrabel. The Titans, since he took over 15-7 against the spread as road dogs, I think in general we're pretty much out on

the saints as a group i don't think that dennis allen derrick carr michael thomas noah alvin camara you know chris alavi is a nice player i i just i don't think that this is you know drew breeze's saints here i think this is a a Titans team that was the most injured team in the league last year, gets stronger up on the offensive line, has figured out a lot of things, including who their number one receiver is with Hopkins. They figured out their tight end position. Derrick Henry should be fully healthy.

They have some depth on offense they haven't had. And on defense, they're healthy. They never really seemed to gel as a group last year and they had they started really well anyway i think they were like seven and three or something like that at the start of last season so i think they start hot this is a spot where we always tend to smash rabel and man give me give me tomlin and rabel in week one as dogs like i just feel like that's just that's just like a nice spot to be in i get to fade derrick carr like sign me up sign me up i do i do this defense is going to be good though so i i'm i i'm curious to see tennessee their offensive line really questionable um which makes me give

me a little bit of pause i don't like wagering on offensive line like theirs, at least in week one. But, but this is completely the play here. This is the play you have to make in this game. Last year that the Titans started really slowly. Actually the first two weeks, they got blown out by Buffalo after losing that weird game to the Giants. But then they,

I think they won their next six until they, that crazy Chiefs game with Malik Willis. So maybe they won't start quite as hot as, you know, they may not win this game, but I don't mind fading New Orleans at all. Everyone's just sort of penciled in pick for the NFC South, and I'm not a buyer. I'm not a buyer either. Are you a buyer in the Chicago Bears bears and the fade jordan love train

i can't wait to talk about this one so the bears this has moved around a bunch also now we're seeing the bears the bears are now favored uh but in the contest the packers were road favorites by a point um so this has moved around quite a bit which means the money's starting to pour in on chicago uh if we're catching a point with the bears i do think that might be the play but i have a few thoughts but go ahead um this is sort of a stay away for me because so what is justin fields gonna be the fields we saw in the preseason was like three screen passes right like like what what are we what are we getting from fields on offense which which I guess the Packers don't know either revamped offense right new offensive line new weapons much better on paper is the Bears defense that much better early in the season than it was last year Matt

and what if what if Jordan Love just has an average game the packers win this game right or no maybe i mean the problem with the packers the the bears case is this first of all dobs and dobs and watson their status is a little bit questionable this is already a really thin group at wide receiver so there's going to be a lot of this rookie tight end musgrave there's going to be a lot of adjustments like it doesn't feel like they're going to come out and just figure it out on passing they do have a great rushing attack they do have a really good offensive line the case for me more is like what do the bears do if they lose this game like this is the bears i feel like this is

the bears super bowl they're like it's kind of like how the lions came into last night where the lions if they lost that game it'd be the same old lions and it's like oh well of course like we hyped them all off season they didn't even have to beat travis kelsey or chris jones and for the the bears and the packers like the they could never beat rogers rogers is gone they're coming to chicago justin fields has gotten all this hype all off season like if it's not now i i kind of feel like their season's done i'm i know that's like a little bit of an exaggeration there's still 17 more games left but like this would put them back in the nfc north they would be looking up they'd be

the seller team again it's like prove it to us this is it this is your week like the packers are already wounded they're coming to your house as road favorites at least they were so i think that that's the case to make for the bears but like i don't love it man i'm out on justin fields i'm huge on the bears i mean i i put it down as a maybe but i i just don't feel great about it i have i have sharp people that i know taking the bears for the reasons you mentioned but also just sort of like a jordan love fade situation here i'm just not sold on the bears i mean there are maybe we have five maybe so far and i don't know how many we have left i know there's one that i supremely love coming up in a little bit um so i will put as a maybe but not not my favorite of the weekend um ram seahawks seahawks are are going to continue to climb i think as a favorite here it's what five and a half five uh we the contest line was uh five and a half

and looking right now it's down to four and a half so people are starting to to uh smell the to to get a little bit entranced by the sean mcveigh experience i think what are you my thought is it's seattle or nothing here right like the rams i i don't want to read you the roster again buddy but who is matt stafford throwing to this weekend yeah tyler higby that's it like what what are we doing here i mean seattle geno smith is not again not the world beater like i get that but they're a better team everywhere than the rams are i mean the idea idea, I guess, yeah, Sean McVay, great coach, agreed. But Pete Carroll also agreed. Like, where's the advantage in this game for the Rams?

I understand we're talking about gambling here, so it's four and a half points or five and a half. But I don't know, man. I mean, I can see this game being, you know, 37-14, right? Like, that's more of a college score, 27-14. Then it is a close game, right? I agree. There's just something stinks about this one to me.

And I think it's because McVay owns Seattle, McVay owns September. And it's sort of the same reasoning, I think, as – Whoa, I'm getting an – Yeah. The other problem I have with this is this is the Rams Super Bowl. Again, it's the same thing. If they lose this game, we're talking about are they trading Aaron Donald.

We're talking about are they trading Matt stafford like that's where this goes if they don't start some modicum of hope so i do think that like i this is i'm not saying we should take the rams this just feels a little bit like a stay away it's also like gino's just going to be as good as he was at the beginning of last season if you remember pulled off at the the end. So Seattle's a really hyped team. I like them, but I'm just not positive I want to wager on this one in week one. No, I wouldn't want to wager on it either, but I do think, again, like,

the Sharps love the Rams this year. I don't really understand that, to be honest with you. But yeah, I'm out on this game. I just wouldn't. I just't i just i can't do it either way um yeah all right what do we got next speaking of past for me at least the raiders are going to denver oh uh this is around four or three and a half depending where you look but let's just save time let's just save time we're just no we're not we're not playing this game let's go the next one yeah sorry Sorry, Broncos and Raiders fan.

Just not happening. Show me something with either of your quarterbacks. Okay, next game is probably the most fun game to watch. I'm not sure I want to bet it. The Dolphins at the Chargers. This is just sort of stuck at three for the last few days. It's three in the contest. It's three as we tape this on Friday afternoon.

I don't have a side here. I just really want to watch it. What do you think? I think my side would be dolphins plus three but i'm i'm not i don't want to wager on it i mean the thing with the chargers is like matt this is the healthiest they've ever been like they're healthy football team and you have a new offensive coordinator like you have hope right now right like you should be much better the dolphins have a little bit of concerns at offensive line injury wise heading into this game i and the chargers remember last year that was the first team to sort of shut down miami's offense if if you were calling that game right

it was in los angeles too i believe right it was a sunday night football game on a football it was one of those one of those primetime games um i think vic fangio will have a plan for herbert as he has a plan for everyone but i in a game with evenly matched teams i just take the the points but i think vegas is telling you that charger is slightly better right because there's no home for advantage anymore and you're getting you know you have to lay through the chargers. I want to watch the game. I'm a bit with you on this game. I'm with you. My hottest, most secret take of the year is that I think Tua is going to be awesome.

I think Tua got some really bad luck last year. The more I've thought about it, the more I've looked at it, the more I think Tua, with the complement of weapons around him, with that offense, with that heat in Miami that just is going to – we always forget it kills people in the beginning of the season. This is going to be a track meet. I think they have three of the same running back. They have two of the same receiver essentially

like it's just a very fluid offense so i i just feel like they're going to get off to a hot start but the charges are really good um so it's a pass for me but i just wanted to get put it out there that like i think people are going to be viewing to a a lot differently by the middle of the season than they did last year he had a rough and very unlucky season last year. He just has to stay healthy, man. He was incredible when he was on the field. All right, I know this is one of your favorites. Oh, I love it, dude. Go ahead.

All right, so Philadelphia, the defending champs, are going to New England. The defensive NFC champions. Sorry, the NFCc champs excuse me are going of course to uh to new england the contest line is three and a half it's moved up to four it started at four and a half this has been all over the place i think you're probably gonna want us to take a specific number here um what do you think give give the people your take here because i love new england this game buddy like absolutely love doing this game um let's start with the fact that super bowl losers

stink in week one they've covered three last 10 games over the last 10 seasons the the eagles not the seers the eagles have two new coordinators both offensive defense and they have high expectations obviously to do the same thing they did last season so the other is kind of this all these things happening with some new coordinators, both offense and defense, and they have high expectations, obviously, to do the same thing they did last season. So you have all these things happening with some new coordinators, and now you have expectations on you, which you didn't have last season. You have this weight of knowing you have to win games. But more importantly, I'm high on the Patriots this season. Their defense last season finished near the top in the NFL in efficiency,

and they added a first-round cornerback in Christian Gonzalez, a good football player. They can be – but more than anything else, and I hate saying this because we faded Bill O'Brien for so many seasons as Houston's head coach, but he won a lot of games in Houston, Matt, with very good offenses. They won the division four to six years he was coaching there. He was a terrible general manager, no doubt about that. He goes to Alabama and has the Heisman winner last season in Bryce Young. four to six years he was coaching there. He was a terrible general manager, no doubt about that.

He goes to Alabama and has the Heisman winner last season in Bryce Young. He had Penn State previously coach good offenses. Guy can coach an offense. So the Patriots offense is going to be much better this season. So you have a better Patriots team, an Eagles team off, again, the Super Bowl hangover of a loss, new coordinators, Tom Brady Day, which means nothing but fun to just throw in there uh to me i am fine hammering new england in this spot i'll take the four points and move it along yeah man no i'm fine with it too um i do i will say would it shock me if the eagles won this game by two touchdowns not even a little bit but this is

the way this is what you do it's what you do right you take you take the team that is receiving all the hype with against a good coach on the road jalen hurts by the way uh huge splits first road and home uh 13 5 and 1 against the spread at home only 6 and 13 against the spread on the road so i like the spot and if we're getting the four uh i really like it i'm taking new york plus four here um all right the two primetime games sunday and monday let's hit those real quick if you think the giants plus three and a half here the podcast ends i'm telling you right now you better not take the giants right now no i i will not take the giants although i did i did consider it um the giants yeah three three and a half contest line is three um and yeah i mean darren

wall is questionable now by the way darren wall is questionable oh no way yeah i think questionable yeah that's that's not a big shock so that moved the line to three and a half. It's been three and a half for the most part for this game. Matt, I'm not betting on the Giants, who last season I think overachieved. And they're better this year. Don't get me wrong. But the Cowboys defensive line I think has an advantage in this game. And a new offense, which I'm not sure it's great for the Cowboys,

but they're a very talented team. If you're laying three and a half with the Cowboys, that is a terrible mistake. Like, you cannot wager on the Cowboys in this spot either. It's a primetime game when the Giants and Cowboys avoid this game at all costs. I'm fine doing that, Jeff. I don't feel great backing Daniel Jones at home ever. That's been something we've been very firm about.

This will be a fun one to watch. Someone's going to leave this game and feel really good, and the other is going to feel really, really rough. But nothing like the next game. Okay. The next game. Do you have a take on this game? I do, actually.

I feel like you do. I do. I'm not sure I want this in our list, but go ahead. It's the Bills or the Jets. The Bills are road favorites, two and a half in the contest, and I'll look up. It's two and a half now still. To me, it's Jets or pass in this game.

Oh, man, the Jets are so interesting in this game right like you talk about the super bowl for a couple other teams like this is the beginning of this season where they gotta start fast they gotta start fast and on the flip side you have a buffalo team that is sort of feels like is, is backslid a little bit. Right. And there's no, there's no hype on Buffalo this season. I don't think, which is,

it hasn't happened for a couple of years now. Maybe there's lying in the weeds waiting to take off. Didn't have a great preseason, right? That Pittsburgh game kind of shocking. It was ones over. It's ones. I think for a good part of that game,

they have some injuries right now. safety, right, I believe. Hyde's not going to play. Who's rushing the passer for them without Vaughn Miller? The Jets, I think, fixed their offensive line with Dwayne Brown coming back and being healthy to play. I'm talking myself into taking the jets here the case for the jets i think is a matchup one and it's like the things that like how does buffalo how do you beat buffalo it's like you you can rush you can rush josh allen uh you know. You can move the ball on both sides, both running and passing on offense.

The other thing is, Buffalo, you mentioned the pass rush. How are you getting to Rodgers? How are you doing it without Von Miller, without on the road, by the way, playing points? The other part of this, mean i think like you sort of were hinting at it buffalo next week they host the raiders they go to my commanders and then their schedule picks up a bit but like they kind of get like they don't have to go into the season like blazing hot the jets on the other hand at dallas new england who they can never beat kansas city

at denver philly so like this is a absolute must win i it's funny to me that people are sort of i feel like people are checking themselves and saying like i'm not buying the hype like this is a good chance to buy low whoever's facing the jets but like no i don't think jets the jets like the jets should be good like you almost could make the argument that the jets roster is better than the bills roster like top to bottom when you really look at it and i don't think i don't think i disagree with that i think that's that's correct it's not the hottest take ever it feels like it but it's really not and buffalo i think is getting a little bit of a legacy bump here and a lot of people just don't want to be caught with their pants down betting on this jet scene that could really be fraudulent but i do think that buffalo could

just sort of like not totally have all their horses for this game yet there's also like the digs allen thing like it seemed to be resolved but that doesn't feel like that's like totally going away to me like it feels like there was a little bit of that doesn't feel like that's like totally going away to me like it feels like there was a little bit of some discontent with that team new defensive coordinator it doesn't feel like they start super hot so i feel like the jets catching points while very risky it feels a little fishy to me it still feels like you kind of got to do it whether we put it in our five or not i think we can talk about but i do think that they're the play yeah so right now we have after all the games all right we have the browns the steelers and the patriots like we'll take it right the browns plus two and a half pittsburgh plus two and a

patriots plus four you love tennessee right that's your favorite of the ones left over? What's left over? Okay, Indy plus five, Tennessee plus three, Chicago plus one, and the Jets plus two and a half. I think Jets and Titans are about even for me. I feel comfortable with the Jets. I think I've convinced myself into taking the Jets. After we talked. So do you want to put Tennessee plus three and just ride with Vrabel here?

I'm fine with riding Vrabel. Okay. But is there one other you'd rather make the case for? Because I feel like I drove too many of these. No, buddy, I trust your opinion. This is like, I forgot the the games i liked it's the thing about this this thing right this contest you're rarely going to find five games you like yourself i don't know how people that do this by themselves get five games every week matt because this is

it's it's it's hard it's hard i will say i'd rather back tennessee plus three than chicago plus one or minus one or Indy plus five. Yeah, me too. And we would have five dogs. We would have four home dogs. Yeah. And three. We have four home dogs. We have a number of divisional home dogs.

We love divisional home dogs. Yes. Two divisional home dogs plus Tennessee on the road. We're going to put these five picks. Again, Cleveland plus two and a half. Pittsburgh plus two and a half. Tennessee're going to put these five picks, again, Cleveland plus 2.5, Pittsburgh plus 2.5, Tennessee plus 3, New England plus 4, the Jets plus 2.5. We're going to put these into the vault on vaulted.

These are not our pool picks. These are just in there so you guys can track them. We track them anyways. We're going to double track them on the vaulted app. As I mentioned at the beginning beginning we have 24 predictions that you can play in the pool this week on the vaulted app use the code jeff just jeff with a g i got called uh godfrey yesterday or something i was like no it's just jeff i don't know i don't know where you get godfrey from um so jeff with a g G-O-F-F.

And a couple of these that I really like. So, and again, these are agree and disagree. All right. And you signed a poem to him. Yes. Can we, how about we do this? I'm going to do a little stage direction for folks watching on YouTube. If you're watching on YouTube or Twitter right now, just stick around.

We're just going to take a two second break because in audio, we're going to put an ad here. So just stick around. Jeff's going to give you his vaulted picks in one second if you're listening on audio and literally one second if you're watching us on Twitter. Are you smarter than your friends? Prove it with vaulted by predicting, challenging, and beating them with your sports knowledge. Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D,

is a place where you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees, and prove you are smarter than your friends by using the Vaulted Challenge feature. I will have my own pool on Vaulted each week. We can answer questions to win cash prizes, and there are no entry fees required to participate. This football season, Volta will be handing out money. The only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of the regular season pools, which won't happen because, as you know, I am smarter than you. I will be using Volta to make and store my five favorite predictions of the week. So join Volta and you can like, dislike, comment, interact with my predictions, or if you're bold enough, you can make your own and see how smart you are in football,

which won't be as smart as me. Go download Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D, and remember to use the code Jeff, that's G-E-O-F-F, so you can see my predictions and play along. Okay, Jeff, go ahead. Give us your Vaulted pics. You were going there, and I derailed you. I had to adhere to the sponsorships.

It's all right. It's why you're here, buddy. So with 24 predictions. That's why you're here, buddy. So with 24 predictions in the pool, you can assign a number 10 to 1 confidence in this, in the pool. And if you beat me in the pool, you get qualified in the big game pool. So we'll see if you're smarter. But here's a couple of these that I like. We talked about the top. We have wagered on this game for months now

will the 49ers cover two and a half against the steelers matt and i both put in disagree i put in 10 matt i put in 10 for this one 10 baby 10 points me too strongly okay so we're we each have 10 we agree on that we have 10 on that amari Cooper will have more receiving yards than Tee Higgins. Yes, agreed. Amari Cooper is the number one wide receiver. Tee Higgins is not the number one. And reports came out as we're talking today that he's not going to be re-signed in Cincinnati after the season.

Really? Yeah. Yeah. So Burrow just got paid. So I think I put a five on this one. I don't feel great about it, but you've number one wide receiver in this against a number two wide receiver. To me, that's an easy agree. Right or wrong? What do you think? Watson is going to surprise people with how good he looks, unfortunately, for those of us rooting against him.

My favorite, Jeff, similarly, DJ Moore will have more receiving yards than Christian Watson. This was a 10 for me. Christian Watson's been a little bit banged up, hasn't practiced much. He's a speed guy. This is a guy who's going to go downfield. This isn't a catch seven-yard passes 10 times in the game. So if he's not 100% in his speed, he's not going to be flying.

And you know the Bears are going to be working DJ Moore to try and prove that acquisition was a smart one. So I love that one. That's another 10-pointer for me. That's number, I think, 15 on this list. Yes. A couple more that we like here. Micah Parsons will have more than one and a half sacks. Agree.

Agree. I think he has more than one and a half sacks. Agree. Agree. I think he has more than one and a half sacks. I think he's defensive player of the year this year. So I'm big into Parsons. I get to just try and solve. It's on Thomas is good, but I think you can move around and kind of figure out some matchups or in the season.

And the last one, and this is a little bit of cherry picking, but I already had this answer in there was CD lamb of the Cowboys. We'll have more catches than Darren Waller. Who's questionable to play now i put this in there before before before the waller news came out i think i put like eight on this one so um i'm always gonna take a number one wide out against the tight end let's say travis kelsey like like that's just that's what i'm gonna do the other one from the giants game

that i do like is take one barkley will have more rush yards than than the tony pollard i put disagree um i think the cowboys are gonna run the football like that's just what they do it's Giants game that I do like is Saquon Barkley will have more rushing yards than Tony Pollard. I put disagree. I think the Cowboys are going to run the football. Like, that's just what they do. It's their offense. And they said they're going to run the football more. They don't really have a second running back. It's not like where you split reps between Zeke and Tony Pollard.

They have some depth. You have to have people that put a uniform on. But the Giants, I think, find different ways to move the ball with Jones and with one. So those are my five that I like, including one from Matt. Hope you guys enjoyed our show. Please join our vaulted pool. We've already put our picks in there.

It's a lot of fun. It'd be fun this season to see who is smarter than me. Good luck this weekend. I also posted my Pac-12 plays on Twitter. We back on Monday with a reaction show from the weekend, guys. Enjoy your NFL Sunday. It's going to be a lot of fun this weekend. We're back.

We're back.