Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Houston Needs a GM, McCoy & Reid Reunite & Oregon Stumbles

Episode Date: September 3, 2019

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from the athletic i'm jeff schwartz the chargers still haven't signed melvin gordon the texans changed direction and organ loses another heartbreaker just broke my poor heart it's tuesday september 3rd and this this is Jeff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. Welcome back, everyone. Hope you had a fabulous weekend. We had college football wall-to-wall. It was the best. This week is setting up for a fabulous week.

A full NFL slate, full college football. As usual, our producer, Gabe Goodwin, will throw the hot takes at me. I'll swat him away and tell you what you need to learn from all the stories around National Football League. And, of course, we'll take a deep dive into Oregon and Justin Herbert. All right, Gabe, how was your weekend, buddy? My weekend was great. I have to say, though, I think the takemakers on the Internet, at least, were they might have hit some good points this week. I think you might find that sometimes people can be right just every now and then. We'll find out.

I think they're going to be severely wrong about one of our topics uh it might have to do with the organ ducks but we'll see we'll see you might also be on an island on that one let's go to the first topic uh you mentioned melvin gordon zeke elliott so the chargers basically told melvin gordon to take a hike till next year if he wants more money um we don't expect to see him in light blue for a while uh after weekend reports of a deal being close in Dallas, the Cowboys now seem to be getting ready to call Zeke's bluff as well. In fact, they signed an extension for lineman Lyle Collins yesterday,

giving him a multi-year deal way ahead of when they needed to sign him. And it basically tells me and a lot of people out there, they're just trolling Zeke, Amari, the whole crew at this point. They have money. They're spending it on guys who most of us don't really know much about. They just don't seem to want to give it to Zeke. They seem to don't want to give it to Zeke as well. I'm going to start with Melvin Gordon because this is going to go into a later conversation about a different team and the way the situation was handled.

Look, Melvin Gordon, for whatever reason, waited till training camp to make a stand. He had to make a stand in March when teams were looking for running backs and for agency as they're building their rosters up, as they're deciding how to draft. And you cannot wait till the summer to get this done. Nobody is going to trade any sort of value to the Chargers for Melvin Gordon. You have to be desperate. Look, the Texans, who we'll get to in a second, they were desperate for running back help. They did not trade for Melvin Gordon.

Maybe the Eagles, who I think Melvin Gordon followed on Instagram, as we all know that's the way it works. Maybe the Eagles will trade for him. But again, it does seem like a move that Harry Roseman would do, the Eagles GM. But again, are the Chargers going to get the value they want in a draft pick, which is what they're going to get, for Melvin Gordon? Also, Gordon's going to want to go somewhere and get an extension, which again, are the Eagles willing to pay him a lot of money? Because look, I go to this point a lot.

It matters for Zeke. It matters for Melvin Gordon. The data has shown that paying a top tier running back is not prudent to team building. There's no way around it. I'm an offensive lineman. I wish it was different, but it's not. I cannot deny the evidence. Now we can have an argument about whether running backs in general matter,

the running game matters, but paying a single running back has shown to not be great to team building. The Eagles realize that. I believe the Cowboys realize that. There's a number they can pay Zeke and that number they want to reach. And they'll be fine doing it, but anything over that, the Todd Gurley deal really kind of ruined this for the Cowboys because Zeke's negotiating off that contract.

And there's a number the Cowboys don't want to pass. There's a number, obviously, that the Chargers do not want to pass with Melvin Gordon. And Gordon, I put this all on his agent, man. You should have done this in March, and you should have made a stick about it then when people really wanted running backs. Now you have to hope for an injury,

or you have to hope for something weird to happen, or you have to hope that someone who does want to trade can match the compensation that the Chargers want, plus give you a new deal. There's a lot of moving parts here that are hard to do now. And now to Zeke Elliott, look, I know that the Cowboys signed Lyle. They signed Jalen Smith last week. Look, they have $85 million in cap room, according to the cap experts on social media also if you go to you know the cap website so they they have plenty of of money to spend on zeke and dac and amari if they want

gabe i think there's a clear sign that they're paying the guys that are in the facility first and jalen smith and lyle collins um they seem to negotiate with Dak and Amari. They do not feel that they should be held hostage by Zeke. That all being said, today reports that Zeke is coming back to Dallas in anticipation of getting a new deal done. It feels like they're doing that deal first because they need him this week. And Dak and Amari are there. They're not going anywhere. But again, Gabe, you've got to pay Dak Dak first you need to take care of your quarterback first yeah what if what you

know every game Dak plays that he plays well in the start of the season his leverage goes up and up and up and up to get more money why aren't the Cowboys paying just get it done get Dak done first uh is there anything to read into I mean we you know we agree on that and you've been saying that and it seems obvious is there anything to read into though when they put together their first 53 man roster that they brought in pollard and morris and then that the presumption people are making is that that means well zeke's obviously coming back if they just have pollard and morris is that a good read on the situation or people just overthinking that um well look tony pollard played really well in the preseason and we've seen that you can find running backs in a draft that are not first round

draft picks and can you take much away from the preseason yeah i think you can in that he played really well i mean like i think that when a running back rushes for i think four and a half yards to carry 4.86 yards per carry in the preseason that that is a good number that might carry over especially with a healthy offensive line now in Dallas with Frederick back. Now the question becomes, and I think Zeke does a lot for the Cowboys offense, is can Pollard deliver the same amount of tackle breaking, the same amount of ability in the pass game,

and really the fear of defenses in the running game is the offense line and also Zeke Elliott will will Tony Pollard make defenses fear the run game as much as Zeke Elliott did we might find out if they don't pay Zeke um and you know obviously Tony Pollard has to start against the Giants on Sunday well if my fantasy draft is any indication people assume that Zeke is coming back and assume that Melvin Gordon isn't and it wreaked havoc on many many drafts to have this unclarity because those are two first round guys so do you have do you have sympathy for the fantasy players out there not really um it's the first year that I played that I played uh I played fantasy a long time

um I had the first pick I took Saquon Barkley. I'm pretty pumped about my team. I'm not going to lie. I got a lot of young guys that I think are going to do some good things this year. Drafted for a lot of potential. But I don't feel – sorry for anyone on this fantasy team. Sorry, OJ. Don't feel sorry that Andrew Luck retired an hour after you drafted him. I just think, look, it's fantasy. Make a trade. Get it done.

But there's another fantasy guy that's going to get, I think, a lot of points here. And we're going to talk about him in just a few minutes. All right. Well, you talked about trades. That gets us to our second topic. I'm quoting. The Texans are drunk. Take their keys.

That was Bill Simmons in the moment this weekend when it seemed like for four hours, all we were reading was that the Texans were making more and more trades. None of it seemed real. When the dust had cleared, they did seem like they were totally hammered and had no care for tomorrow. So they're going all in on 2019. They gave up two first rounders and a second rounder for Laramie Tunsil and Kenny Stills. They also bounced Jadavian Clowney out of town for a little less than most expected, while still paying him a few million bucks.

As many joked, this would be the right time to fire the GM if they had one. I did not even realize that. They don't have a full-time GM. I did not even realize that they don't have a full-time GM. So the people making these decisions are not actually authorized or in charge of this type of decision-making. They're completely lost, right? I mean, the internet got this one right. I think the internet mostly got this one right.

Bill O'Brien is making all these moves as a head coach. Now, we've seen throughout the years that only one head coach can do head coach and GM duties. That's Bill Belichick. Almost everyone else has failed in this job. And now, obviously, they now traded away Javion Clowney to Seattle. And the reason why the compensation, I think, was not as high for him is because the Seahawks cannot extend him right now. So there isn't as much worth to them to trade, you know, a first round draft pick for Clowney if they're not going to keep him for a couple of years. So that's why they didn't get as much for them because the negotiation period is now over for franchise tag guys. And to cap

that off, Houston paid $7 million of a signing bonus to Clowney. And then Seattle only has to pay $8 million of the salary. So they trade him and are paying part of his salary as well. So again, I talk about Melvin Gordon's timing. For whatever reason, Bill O'Brien has not liked Jadavion Clowney. I don't know if it's because of a player, his personality. I don't know what it is. You should have traded him before you franchised him.

Like the value in trading him is then because then a team can go ahead and give him a long-term contract like the Khalil Mack situation. Like the time has now passed where the value is not there. If you try to make this move and people have known you have not liked climbing for a while now, then go ahead and trade him in March. Like, why aren't you doing that? And I guess,

look, they still had a GM, I think in March and the GM was probably like, why are we doing that? Why would we trade them? And obviously the, the, the power play worked out.

But now that's why they get less for him. And now they have one less pass rush. I think it makes Seattle a lot better. And then left tackle. All him. And now they have one less pass rush. I think it makes Seattle a lot better. And then left tackle, all right? They traded for Laramie Tunsell. And Tunsell is a fantastic young tackle. He really is. He's going to be really good.

And I understand the reason why they went ahead and tried to get a left tackle. They needed a left tackle badly, right? You have to now protect Deshaun Watson, your future. There weren't many options out there. I get that. But you trade away two first-round draft picks, and you don't even have an extension for him right now.

So now Tunsell's people know you have to pay him so much money because you traded two first round draft picks for him and your future now is on this season next season how about this game the texans will make one first round pick it was titus howard this year over the next over a four year span because they traded away all their all their picks and titus howard is an offensive lineman who was supposed to be your left tackle this year. So you didn't even hit on the guy. I know he's young, but you didn't even hit on the guy

that was supposed to play left tackle for you. So they're mortgaging their future. This is why 100% you need a GM unless you're Bill Belichick. And I would say that Belichick does actually probably give up some of his duties to the player personnel guy. But, dude, Bill'brien is drunk with power uh these trades in a in in when they're made do not make sense as far as the economy deal you should have done this in march when you had great value in him but for whatever

reason you didn't do it then and now you lost out on on this value you drafted a tackle in the first round so now you basically have used three first round draft picks on two tackles. I don't understand how you're building your team in this manner. And I think it's another example of a coach with too much power. It's not going to end well. I want to ask a couple of follow-up questions then. So if they're in win now mode, which seems like what you're telling me they're doing, I mean, however they got here,

whether it was, you know, well played or not, that seems weird too, right? Like of all the years, like Tom Brady's still out there. The Chiefs look like the best team, you know, in the AFC. Like there's two unbelievably good teams they will have to go through. This isn't the year you want to play for in all of the years in the AFC. Look, I think that's, I agree with that idea that like, if we look at it just from us,

from our perspective, we look at it and say, look, they're not winning the AFC this year, right? The Chiefs or the Patriots, in my opinion, win the AFC this year. But from their perspective, they go, look, Andrew Luck's not an Indy anymore. We know that we have talent, whether it's J.J. Watt on defense or Deshaun Watson on offense. Left tackle is a giant hole for us. We weren't going to pay Clowney the money,

so we might as well ship him off somewhere. So they got a little bit of value back in that deal. Obviously not the value that they should have gotten, but they got some value back. And look, we're going to go for it. All we got to do is get in the dance, which is the playoffs, and then go from there. But the thing about having a GM is that the GM looks at the future, right?

The GM plans out the future. Coaches look year to year. So a GM might have said to him, dude, Bill, we're not trading two first-round draft picks after we just drafted a left tackle and we traded away Dwayne Brown a couple years ago. We're not trading two first-round draft picks after we just drafted a left tackle and we trade away Dwayne Brown a couple years ago like we're not trading two first-round draft picks for a left tackle like we're going to play the young guy that we drafted because the future of our franchise we need those draft picks but coaches only think in the present they only think year to year

and what if and I don't think Houston's going to be as good this year as people think so what if Houston goes eight and eight and they have a glaring weakness in another position? Well, they'll have a first-round draft pick for next year or the year after. So was getting a left tackle worth it that much to them to mortgage the future of adding talented players to your roster

to compete against the Patriots? I think Tom Brady's going nowhere. The Chiefs, that team's going nowhere. I think the Colts will actually be fine. I think they'll eventually get another quarterback. But we have Cleveland who's getting nowhere. I think the Colts will actually be fine. I think they'll eventually get another quarterback. But we have Cleveland who's getting better. I mean, there's plenty of teams, and AFC's still really good.

Is it worth more? And that's where the GM comes in. The GM thinks about the future. Coaches don't. And that's the problem with what they're doing right now. It's only about the present for them. So if we give Bill O'Brien the benefit of the doubt, which doesn't seem worthwhile right now but is it possible if you played on teams where some guy just really is bad in the

locker room and it's not just coach who has a personality conflict but genuinely no matter how good he is people just don't like having him around and coach spots it and says we got to get this guy out of here i don't care if it you would get mocked by some goobers on twitter could it be that maybe he spotted the right guy to get out of there and now the team is happier would that matter on the field yeah but i don't think we've heard anything about clowny being bad in the locker like those stories typically leak especially after someone gets traded or someone leaves the team right we know this we're in the media like stories get leaked the second someone leaves a team about how that person was a. We're in the media. Stories get leaked the second someone leaves a team

about how that person was a bad teammate. Right. We've heard nothing about that with Clowney. So I think just Bill O'Brien did not like him for whatever reason, and maybe that reason will come out at some point, but right now it hasn't. And again, you need a GM to think about the future, and Bill O'Brien is not that guy, and it's going to cost him, I think.

All right, well, let's talk about another team that made some good moves in the offseason or just the other day, really. The Chiefs' running back situation got a lot better. Right in time for my fantasy draft, we've talked about that. I was texting Jeff in the middle of my draft last night, getting a little inside info. So it comes down to this. LaShawn McCoy signed a one-year deal for $3 million

to join the backfield in Kansas City, we think, by week one. Reunites Shady with Andy Reid from their old high-scoring days in Philly. Feels like an absolute total home run. Jeff gave me enough confidence to reach for Shady and brag about it in my draft. Wait, where did you take him? I told you specifically where you should take him. Oh, no, don't worry. My league's rules are so insane that it would be impossible to explain.

But I took him late. I took him after most of the starting running backs in the league were gone. Good, because I told you not to take him first. No, no, gosh, no. I got another guy I think you like, Christian McCaffrey. Oh, good. Oh, so you had a second pick in your draft. I was picking number two, yeah.

Saquon went one, McCaffrey went two. Oh, good. Oh, so you had a second pick in your draft. I was picking number two, yeah. Saquon went one, McCaffrey went two. Yes, clearly. But I got McCoy later on, and I feel good about it because I have this faith, and you gave me a little hint of it. I have this faith that he's probably going to get a lot of the RB1 snaps. So is this problem solved with the running back situation in KC? No inside information, by the way, here on this. Okay.

I have not asked my brother at all really about say about about shady would have been a little more helpful to me if you had but okay i probably should um no my my deal is this is they paid him three billion dollars guaranteed that's not to be a backup that's to be the starting running back and i think he's a perfect fit for what they do which is they obviously run a lot of zone, which McCoy is great at. He's great in the screen game, which achieves to run a ton of screens. And this is definitely going to be a place where he starts now week one. I think he starts week one.

I don't know why he can't get up to speed in this offense as quickly as he's done this in the past. But, I mean, he had his best rushing years, not his best. His best was with Chip Kelly, but he had 1,300 yards in 2011 with Andy Reid, added some receiving yards to all 300. He had 500 receiving yards, almost 600 the year before that. You know, with Chip Kelly, obviously, when the way they style of rushing there, he's going to have a couple more yards. But, you know, I think that his best seasons,

some of his best were with Andy Reid in Philly. And I think that this is a great of his best were with andy reed in philly and i think that this is a great reunion for him and for for andy reed i think he's gonna be fabulous fabulous in this offense so gabe smart taking him i might try to see someone on my fantasy team has shady mccoy i'm gonna take a look right now let's see well while you do a little googling uh what does this mean for um williams for you, for the rest of the guys who looked like they were about to get a whole bunch more snaps? And more importantly, just get people a little smarter on how that offense will work. Because I see a lot of running backs sprinting out of the backfield and catching balls, running 80 yards with screens and such.

So Andy Reid wants an offense that's very multiple right so he has by multiple i mean he has a lot of moving parts that do the same thing so if you see like whether it's tyreek hill or hardman now um or watkins or d'anthony thomas right walk is a little bigger than all those guys but they basically are guys that can fly and can move all over the formation right they're motioning so he wants guys that can fly and can move all over the formation, right? They're motioning. So he wants players that can just do a lot of different things

because then the defense doesn't know what's happening, right? If you're motioning a guy here, you're faking a handoff here, and you're running a screen back there, and you fly a sweep this way, and then you run a fly sweep, but you run inside zone, right? There's so many things that are happening.

And I don't know if McCoy fits that. What he does, he fits more of a three down running back which is what most offenses want in general so you can still have Hardman and Hill and Kelsey and Watkins in the game with with Shady McCoy and ideally you want to have a number one running back running back by committee in my opinion is really tough to pull off just from an offensive alignment perspective so you know the run game is a lot about rhythm, right? So let's say the first play of the game, simple enough, is just a zone run, all right? And you see the defense and you run the ball and something doesn't quite go right. Whether the run fits not right by the running back in the

hole or whether we get beat somehow or the defense is different than we thought it was going to be and you get three yards on that play. Well, then in the second quarter, you run the same exact play. And you might get five yards because now you kind of figure out, hey, we have to run it this way. And in the third or fourth quarter, you run it again. And you get seven or eight yards. So the run game is about rhythm with your running back and figuring out how the game is being played. And if you have to rotate guys a lot through that, it's hard to get the run game really kind of working. If you look at even last year, like the Patriots,

I know people say, well, they have a lot of running backs. Yeah, but like Sonny Michel was basically their rushing running back, and other guys were their receiving running backs, right? I mean, they are able to do that. They're the outlier for everything. Most teams, most offenses want a guy to be the bell count. I think you're looking at Shady McCoy getting anywhere between, you know, 200 and 250 carries this year.

Wow. That's odd, right? To sign a guy just a few days before the season starts who's then going to become that big a piece of your offense? Why is it running back? I mean, I'm saying, like, this is the best offense in football and maybe the best offense we've seen in years. Right. But they got but they got they got a better they got a better player.

They're going to the best teams go ahead and find better players like this. Yeah. At that position. Look, it's different than playing quarterback. And I'd say like like, you know, having a court. I think that's where if your quarterback came in a week. Now they did it with with Sam Bradford and the Vikings. But that to me is is tougher than a running back. Okay. So Jeff, one other thing that you see out there, and I think I, it sounds right to me is while shady played with Andy Reed, Andy Reed sort of notorious with his play calls.

He'll just sort of speak Andy Reed the day he walks in there. It'll be easy for him to pick up the playbook. Is that true? Is that, is it worked that way in real football? It does because he's played in this offense before, and it's going to be the same verbiage that he used with Andy Reid the first time. And this is why it's important to talk about offenses and how they're play calling, right? So Andy Reid and all these West Coast offenses are very wordy. And the reason why they're wordy is because they tell everyone exactly what to do.

So if you're Shady McCoy and you're coming into the Chiefs offense, he's going to tell you exactly what to do on every single play. So we were able to find a play call, shift to halfback, twin right open, swap 72, all-go special, halfback, right open swap 72 all go special halfback shallow cross wide open um i don't know what the wide open part is but i know the rest of it is um so shift to halfback twin right open is a formation obviously look as an offensive lineman nothing's obvious don't say obviously i didn't have i didn't have to know that what the formation was but uh twin right is going to be a three by one formation.

I think right open means the tight end is going to be off, off the, off the, basically in the slot by himself. He's not attached to the line of scrimmage. So 72 is the protection. It's a man protection. You have the four down to the mic. All goes special is their favorite play, essentially. So instead of actually telling you per se what to do which you know for example like here's an example i found of jay gruden of the redskins where he says blah blah blah blah

y sift x strike cougar so it tells obviously the y what to do the x what to do and then other people run a cougar out right so in this case all goes special tells everyone to run all go special which is basically four verticals or if you're in a three-by-one, it's three verticals, but the inside receiver reads the safeties. Safety, middle field close, so one high safety. You run a route in front of the safeties, kind of veer your vertical off. Two high safeties, you continue to split the two safeties to put the one safety in a bind against the number two vertical.

Hopefully not too nerdy there. And then halfback shallow cross, the halfback then runs. So this to me feels like it's maybe an empty protection, even though 72 is not really an empty protection. But with a halfback shallow cross, that's a shallow cross. Shallow cross is a staple of most all West coast offenses. So this is what the play is. So this way,

if shady comes in here, they tell him exactly what to do. Shift to a formation and run a shallow cross. He doesn't need to tell him exactly what to do. And so the reason why often it's installed like this, because you have to learn the base. You have to learn like the letters of the alphabet before you can put together words. Same with an offense.

If you learn all these pieces, then you could be so interchangeable because they're telling exactly what to do. So you put a different personnel group. You want to do different formations and motions. If you're just calling out like double right 92. Well, what if you want to switch guys what if you want to motion a guy across or what if you want to do this and that or or flip the formation like you have to to be multiple in the nfl you need to be wordy because you can include

all these different things i will say this though gabe is that there there are times in the offense two minute drill pre-packaged plays for the game that are at a different tempo. And they're called with one word. Gabe might be a play this week and everyone knows three by one. It's all go special. And the protection is, is 62,

whatever it is like you, you can, you know, you can figure it out in that manner. And that's why it's done in that, in that fashion. So you're saying they could make one word stand for all those words and thereby ask a guy to remember you know we're going to remember these

five words each of which equal these five plays so that's the way they would disguise it i guess from the defense but otherwise they're just laying out exactly what they're doing in their own manner when they list a play as long as that. Right. And like I said, the Jay Gruden play is even better, right? The one I found, and this is from this year, Mark Bullock of The Athletic wrote about it. He covers the Redskins. He does a great job of talking about offenses. Trips right, tight, wide left.

So here's a motion right so so you have the you have the formation you have the trips to the to the uh to the um to the right side of the field trips right tight the y goes across the field left past 19 wanda so you're you're faking an outside zone past 19 wanda week wanda week w week makes sense right y is then coming across the line of scrimmage on a sift you're running x strike cougar can it to the run 19 wanda based off of two high one high look so like it makes sense to me obviously it might not make sense to everyone else but like for me that makes total sense um and you eventually learn it because again it tells you exactly what to do it tells every single person exactly what to do.

And in my opinion, I think that's a great thing about NFL offenses. Well, I'm glad to hear Shady McCoy will learn it as quickly as you say he will. It would take me a little bit longer, probably take most of our listeners a little bit longer, but that was instructive. One of the guys who will maybe one day have to learn an NFL playbook if he can get himself there is your boy, Justin Herbert at Oregon. Herbert did not help his draft chances this weekend when he lost to Auburn, scoring no points in the fourth quarter. Somebody at the Ringer wrote, Herbert's first half proved why he's a top draft prospect. His second half proved why he's not the top prospect.

Why? I agree. This is, okay, okay, look. This is, oh my God, dude. Well, he did nothing different in the first half or the second half. Look, here's my take about Herbert. It's very simple, all right?

It's going to be nuanced, so stick with me here. And it's not so much about this game itself, but here's the deal about Herbert. So he has all the physical gifts you'd ever want a quarterback. There were plenty of throws in this game against Auburn that were fantastic throws, everything you want a pro quarterback, all that, right?

There's a couple things that do worry me about Herbert, and I've said this out loud. I've said it to Mario Cristobal, their coach. I've said it on my radio show and my Pac-12 show every day on Sirius XM 373. I've said it all the time. It's that we've yet to see Herbert in a

game like this one take over the game and win the game. We've yet to see him do that. There's a couple things that are involved in that. First of all is the play calling. The play calling at times gets very conservative.

During the first three or four drives when it was scripted, it was fabulous against Auburn. It was fabulous. Then it got really conservative in the middle of the game, and then actually in the fourth quarter it did pick back up again. There's a couple things to consider here when we talk about this game. Auburn has by far the best defense oregon will play the entire season by far now oregon's offensive line handled it brilliantly their offensive line is fabulous they played really well they protected herbert

they ran the ball don't be fooled by by by the numbers of the rushing game there were plenty of opportunities to tweet them out at jeff schwartz play opportunities to get more yards and running backs the wide receivers and running backs. The wide receivers and running backs are the two worst positions on the team. And it was clear they were not going to attempt a lot of downfield passes because they didn't trust A, their wide receivers, and Auburn

has a great pass rush. Now, Oregon was down. Their top three wide receivers and their starting tight end. Their top four guys that Herbert was going to throw to did not play in this football game. Gabe, last year, three wide receivers and their starting tight end. Their top four guys that Herbert was going to throw to did not play in this football game. Gabe, last year, their wide receivers dropped 52 passes. It was the worst unit by far in the Pac-12.

It's the worst unit by far on Oregon's team. And all these guys that were going to play this game were guys that could catch the football and were new. So they had a transfer from Penn State. They had Micah Pittman, who was a redshirt freshman. Cam McCormick, who didn't play very much last year because he was hurt. All these guys were going to be his guys. None of them played.

And so the offense showed a little bit of concern. And also, no one was open. Dan Orlovsky, who we all love, right? He watched the film. He said, if you take out the screens, screens obviously just to drop back and play action pass only two guys were open all game not not not like two route concepts were open two guys were open the entire game no one was open so my thing with herbert was this and yes the hail mary was bad well now don't just blow past that why okay why so so we're gonna hail mary so a touchdown now don't just blow past that why okay why so so we're gonna

hail mary so a touchdown or the end zone length past the end it's a 35-yard pass is not actually hail mary per se i mean it's just a throw in the end zone he completely butchered that he threw it too long i get it he's just throwing the ball like a 35-yard pass and aim for the middle of the end zone and you know the the but are we really going to judge his draft status on whether or not a Hail Mary was completed? No, but it made me wonder, how come the guy can't hit on the end zone? Did you see him throw other times to people that were in the middle of the chest? I hear what you're saying about the guys weren't open and he was making the throws in the few moments he had. But in that case, they don't even need to be open.

You just need to hit on the end zone. Yeah, okay. It wasn't a good pass. And I admit that. he had but in that case they don't even need to be open you just need to hit an end zone yeah they were yeah okay i get it wasn't a good pass um and i admit that but people were judging his draft status based off of hail mary pass which is just absolutely absurd um so here's what i want to see from the offense is i want to i'm going to reserve judgment on herbert and the offense until these guys come back until the wide receivers come back, and I see, are they really that conservative? Are they opening up the playbook?

Is Herbert not? Now, there are throws that Herbert had to make. There was one on third down, it was like third and 17, where he stepped up in the pocket. A guy did come open really late on a deep in-cut. The question was whether he took his eyes away from him as he stepped up in the pocket or whether or not,

like, he's got to make that throw. There are throws to be made. But the fact is, Bo Nix did not outplay. Bo Nix was 13 of 31. Not outplayed Justin Herbert. And so, look, I know people expect a lot from Oregon. We should have won that game. We were the better team.

We were physical. Our defense played fabulous. It's gut-wrenching, another loss. It's gut-wrenching, dude. We should have had this game. But there are legitimate questions about Justin Herbert that need to be answered still, which I said earlier. I need to see him be the guy, right?

Like, do out and win. But I also need to see guys be open. And I do think he's a little conservative at times. And so those things don't go well together. But in no way did he show in the second half that he's not a top draft prospect. That's not how the film showed. It's not how the game went. You know what I think he should do?

I think he should do what Jay Cutler does and not worry about the guys on his team and just let it fly. It worked so well for Cutler in his pro career. Hey, he played a lot of years in the NFL. Tell your heart. Herbert will play a lot of years in the NFL too. Once he lets it fly like Cutler does. He should. Hey, played a lot of years in the NFL. Tell your heart. Herbert will play a lot of years in the NFL, too. Once he lets it fly like Cutler does. He should. He needs to let it go a little bit more.

I agree with that. All right, it's Tuesday. That means we like to play a little game called Move the Line. These are over-under bets. Some are real. Some are imaginary. Play along with me, Jeff. Let's do it.

Games played for Ezekiel Elliott this season. Over-under 15 and a half will he start week one is what we want to know i think he'll be there week one it feels like they're working in that direction the question obviously is will he stay healthy um and will the cowboys you know will they want to play, say, a Week 17 game where they've already clinched this? Ooh, 15 and a half. I feel like, considering he has yet to play over 15 games in his career, the under would be the smart play here, just based off of trends.

Yeah, that seems right. Even if he comes back and he's happy, I do think there's something to be said, right? Like, the dude prides himself on fitness. We see his abs every time we look at him. He hasn't really been doing much lately, has he? Like, is he going to... He's in Cabo.

He's ready to go, man. Being in Cabo doesn't make you ready to go. Probably not, but I think he'll be... Look, if they're going to sign him this week, he's going to play this week. All right, fair enough. The Seahawks have Jadavion Clowney now. Over under nine sacks for Jadavion Clowney this season. I'm going to go over here.

I feel like in Seattle, with the way that defense operates and the way they play and just the way they scheme up sacks, way they play and just the way they scheme up sacks i feel like he's gonna have um over the the nine sacks um he has yet to have really over that except one year he had 9.5 so i'm gonna say that this he'll have a career year this year in seattle a career year because seattle's always thought of as like a great defense they aren't what they used to be but i mean do we have to worry about the seahawks this year just because of this move uh worry about them how well did they just become more of a contender than they were before yes of course i added a pass rusher okay hey man you're the one who's smarter than me i gotta ask the question sometimes i i think it's a great move

for them uh and they oh like i said they only give what third round pick for them. And like I said, they only gave a third-round pick for him. It feels awesome. Yeah. All right. Over under one half. So this is basically a yes or no question. Will a Pac-12 team make the college football playoff? I'm going with no here, unfortunately. And I'll tell you why. So obviously, Oregon's lost all, but they have to run the table.

They have to be perfect and they are gonna have a hard time doing that because their schedule is really tough they're at Washington they're at um they're at uh Stanford at USC which is a little different now obviously sorry about your your uh your trojans there Gabe um and JT Daniels being hurt um you know obviously that you know that's that's it's going to be tough. And they also go to Arizona State. I mean, there's a lot of moving parts there that they have to do. So it's going to be tough for Oregon. Now, Utah has the best opportunity. They have the easiest schedule.

They have a very good defense. They have a ton of returning starters, quarterback, running back. They played well against BYU. But Washington might be the most talented team outside of Oregon that can make it. They should win the North. They get Oregon at home. They get Stanford on the road, but who knows about Stanford. So you're looking at probably a one-loss Pac-12 team

that doesn't really have a great out-of-conference win. I would say under the half. So you're discounting Utah's chances. They could win a few ranked games win the conference you still don't think that gets them in i mean if you're if you're giving me like a little bit of odds on that like what like what am i getting like am i getting like like a plus like three or four hundred on the over like you know i'm not sitting in vegas here jeff i don't know how to say like what are we doing um i'm just saying. I still think the under is a smarter bet. If there's an undefeated Pac-12 champ who had gone through a handful of ranked,

nationally respected teams. Oh, undefeated? I don't think anyone's going to. If we have nine conference games, man, I don't think anyone's going to undefeated. So you're just saying there's no chance that a team is going to escape a Pac-12 schedule undefeated. I don't think so. And that that same team can't win the championship. Okay, fair enough.

So you just see two SEC teams or, you know. I think Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, and then, you know, Ohio State, Michigan, Oklahoma. Okay, fair enough. Last one, hopefully this can happen. Will Gabe and Jeff have a mandate to see Bill and Ted 3 next August? Will we do it over under the first weekend

Bill and Ted am I what I don't even know Bill and Ted oh come on dude what we I'm very behind on a lot of these movies like I just watched Fletch recently I know you had talked highly about that movie that's pretty funny I did not talk highly about Fletch I'm the guy who's anti

Fletch you're anti Fletch I can I'm confused so who okay other people that we work people much older than either you or i love fletch i thought it was okay so bill and ted here we go bill and ted if you're googling it on the air i mean come on dude jeff you're in your 30s you've never seen bill and ted you don't know what bill and ted is about no dude the first the first movie came out when i was three the second one came out when i was when i was five yeah but that doesn't matter like we had vhs tapes but you just said i was 30 like i should know these movies exist i i well i think we're only a couple years apart in age i'm not like you know 48 years old man i don't know i've never seen bill and ted so i would say that oh my god okay

i would love to i'd love to go see the movie you know i'll come to la we'll hang out all right i'm gonna revise the bet then uh over under before next episode jeff finds a way to watch bill and ted this is one thing i actually am searching right now um if i can find it somewhere i'll watch it i do you're gonna love it it's amazing the whole cut it's been ripped off like a thousand times bill and ted's excellent adventure it's yeah i can't believe we're discovering this on in the air i figured when we threw this in the rundown that you'd be like oh okay i have lots of Bill and Ted takes. Ted, Theodore, Logan, nothing? Do you know who's in Bill and Ted? Obviously, it seems like Keanu Reeves is in this one.

Yes, yes, obviously he is. Yeah. Oh, my God. Okay, there's work to be done here, Jeff. Yes, there is. Let's move into our social mail. You've been watching a lot of football in your life. You've got to get to some Bill and Ted.

I do. Let's get to the social mailbag You've been watching a lot of football in your life. You got to get to some Bill and Ted. Let's get to the social mailbag here and we'll shift gears slightly because this one's a little more serious. But it was an interesting topic that I saw you respond to. So Doug Baldwin, NFL receiver, said, nobody wants to talk about it, but I wish more people did. I have been and still am seeing a therapist and i don't know where i'd be without it to anybody who is on the fence about therapy don't underestimate the value of your mental health and you chimed in um yeah showing some support and giving a little bit of story of your own experience with therapy and i just wanted to open the floor up to you to talk about it share whatever you wanted to share because i think an informed fan would like to hear your perspective. Yeah. So I'm glad that Doug brought this up. I

think in general, it's great to see NFL part. I know Justin Pugh or the Cardinals talked about this last week, I believe of just the open thought process to mental health. And I think that for a while, you know, football players were seen as, and we still are very tough guys, but the tough guys, you know, don't, don't, you you know see therapists or we at least we see them quietly right right we don't need to see therapists we're tough strong men uh i'll tell you what man i consider myself tough and strong but i saw a therapist i call more like a sports psychologist starting i think it was the middle to end of my junior year in college. I was just having some issues more football wise than life wise. And you know, that of course bleeds into your life. And my dad was like, look,

us talking about it's not working. Like I'm not a therapist. Let me find you someone. And he found me someone and look, my guy was great. Very quirky worked for me. I'm not sure he'd worked for a lot of other people, but he was great for me. We saw each other, talked to each other every week for years. And then eventually as I start growing up and mature and move away a little bit from that, and every now and then I call him for a tune up and whatnot. But dude, it was so beneficial for me just to realize who I am, who I want to be, what type of person I want to be, and just how to deal with certain things in life. I had a hard problem saying no, right? Like if anyone asked me to do something just in life, you know, I would just say, I'd always do it, right? Because I had a fear that I, not that I

would miss out, but just that people wouldn't be friendly with me if I didn't say no, you know, yes to everything. And he's like, dude, you can say no. Like it's okay to say no. And I learned that early on too. And I just learned to be true to myself through the whole process. I think it's fabulous to do. And I don't know. And I did premarital counseling as well with my wife. We only had four sessions. It was fabulous. It really helped our relationship. I think it's important to have an outlet to talk about your emotions and have your mental health in order. And it was great for me. No problem talking about it,

sharing about my decision to do that and what I learned from it. And the no thing is just a small part of my overall kind of mental health. And it was fabulous for me. Do you think that players who fans you know might sort of carelessly write off as quote-unquote crazy or little nuts or whatever i mean we all use the words we don't mean them literally but do you think that some of these guys

who show signs of being a little off and at times um either should consider this or maybe are using therapy in some way and just aren't talking about it. Like, how much is this on the minds of other NFL players? I still think it's a stigma for a lot of NFL players going to talk to someone. And I think that, you know, teams are now starting to hire people to help with this in the facility, but I don't trust anyone in the facility to help me. Like, I mean, the Giants had someone, and they wanted me to see her when I was dealing with some of my injury stuff. And I was like, I went and saw her

just because I just appeased them, but then I just called my guy instead. But I don't trust that. And I know their oath basically says they can't say anything, but I think they share. I think players rightfully feel that a therapist is going to share everything they learn with a team, like in-house therapists.

Look, I know that that's not their job and they're not supposed to do that, but I think a lot of us would agree that they probably are. I can't imagine team personnel, if you went to see a therapist and an owner went up to the team who's paying the therapist and said hey how the session go blah blah blah that they wouldn't share something that happened in the session and you're about as level-headed and rational as rational a person as i know so if you're saying that then i know that some of these divas out there in the nfl have to be thinking that so that would mean a lot of guys who could be getting a little bit of help feel a little bit stymied by that.

So you think taking the initiative to actually go and find your own guy is not something tons of guys are doing? Which is hard to do, right? I mean, to admit that, first of all, you need to get help. And then to find someone you like, I mean, you might cycle through a couple people. Plus, also, my guy was in Los Angeles, where I'm from, but I don't live in LA. So you have to find someone, whether it's in your hometown where you live in the off season, whether it's someone in the city you live in, and what if you get cut or traded, it's hard to find the guy you want to use or the lady you want

to use because you're moving as, you know, so much as well. Well, I thought it was cool of you to tack on to what Doug had said. I thought it was cool of you to tack on to what Doug had said. I thought it was cool of Doug to share what he did. I saw a number of other Blue Check players chime in and show some support and agree in their own way. It's cool of you to talk about it here.

Thanks for letting us ask you about it. I think it's important to talk about it. I have no problem talking about these issues. I think it's important for everyone to, if you need to see someone go ahead and try to find someone so i'm gonna i have no problem um sharing uh sharing that cool uh i think we should wrap it up this uh this episode we got another one coming on thursday but why don't you sign us off all right yeah uh we will have one on thursday but uh thank you again obviously for listening to this episode.

This is on iTunes, Spotify, wherever you find your podcasts, on theathletic.com, obviously, and on their app as well. Please rate, review, subscribe. Really appreciate your support. You can send me tweets. Let me know how you feel about the episode. We can use your tweets as well in our social mailbag, which we will have on Thursday. All right, everyone, take care.

Until next time, hope you enjoy the episode.