Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - How to Bet the Conference Championships

Episode Date: January 27, 2023

Geoff and Matt are back to do a deep dive into how to be both the AFC and NFC Championship game this weekend. Geoff is torn between good betting practice and loyalty to his Chiefs, but with a banged up Patrick Mahomes, they will be tough to trust this weekend. And in the NFC, could Brock Purdy be the first rookie QB to start a Super Bowl? Find out what the pros think on this episode of Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You.Be sure to leave a comment or a rating on the pod, and tweet @geoffschwartz and @mmford10 to let them know who you're riding with this weekend.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday january 26th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt for this jeff schwartz a smart new power by the varsity podcast network we have two conference championship games coming up this weekend the two best teams in the nfc face each other and the two best teams left in the afc matt it's going to be a glorious weekend of football i I cannot wait for Sunday. You know, the NFC has been building to Eagles 49ers. The AFC was going to be some combination of Kansas City against Buffalo and Cincinnati. I, as a Chiefs fan, am glad it's the Bengals because the Chiefs need to beat the Bengals

to earn the right to go to the World. Plus, it ends this idea of a neutral site conference championship game, which I absolutely hate. And so we have these two great games this weekend. I'm excited for these. And we'll talk all about them today. We'll get you ready for the action this weekend on Sunday. And I'm pumped, buddy.

I'm excited. Me too. Usually the best games of the year are these championship games. Just want to say, you know, your brother was on Good Morning Football today, and you're here with me. and i just sort of just wanted to check in and just see how that was feeling i'm this is the bet i mean mitch is not mitch should be here though right this should be here this is really this is really the more important show we've both been on good morning football before like different roles this is it's harder to get an invite to this did you ever book

me when i was there when I was there when you were there would I ever go on the show when you were there yes and I booked you on it before the season this year remember you talked about like Jacksonville tanking maybe that was last year two years ago

man was that actually yeah I don't know it was two years ago I didn't go on this year uh i haven't gone on much this year i went in last year for the super bowl i think was the last time i went on yes and um out here in la in los angeles but you know like this year i could probably get back on but it's just it's at 5 a.m and i just don't want to wake up that early get ready it's an early show man i'm gonna be like a little bougie about that. Like if it was, Super Bowl was in the East Coast time zone, great.

I'll wake up at five o'clock and hop on over there and get on. But I'll leave. My brother's the big dog, man. He's got that ring. He's the all pro. He can hit up good morning football and we can talk about football

on the Jeff Schwartz of Smart on You podcast and get people ready for the action this weekend. That's right. You're shot not quite as zoomed in as Mitch's. Mitch's shot was extremely zoomed in. I was taking pictures. If he's listening, I hope you take that in good fun. I don't think he's a big listener to the podcast.

Maybe he is. Sounds like a Mitch problem to me. It does. We'll find out, actually, because he'll let me know. All right. Well, great. This will be hot. I'm sure that you've never discussed me with him before.

And now he'll know he'll know me as the guy who said a shot was too zoomed in. No problem. He's only a professional offensive lineman. What's the worst thing that could happen to me? All right. Let's talk NFC Championship first. That's Sunday, three o'clock Eastern. Let's see. Latest line I'm seeing. This one's been pretty steady. This says Eagles two and a half, which is actually a little higher than I've seen. Is that what you're getting?

Yeah, that's what it's been at for a little bit of time now. I think it bumped up fairly quickly to two and a half. I don't think it gets to three. The thing about these lines, guys, I've learned this over the years now. I've been fortunate enough to work with a professional gambler named Bill Krackenberger. That's what he does for a living. And I do radio with him on Saturdays. Like legit, like not like one of these guys that like sells you like the whale pick of the week. He's a legit in like a group that wagers and they move lines about it. He will text us.

Hey guys, I'm going to wager on the Eagles minus two and a half. You better take this now. It's going to move in eight minutes. And in eight minutes, the line moves because he has wagered on it and the books have corrected themselves to get money from the other side. Like he is a mover and shaker in the industry. And he has taught me that a lot of the action that happens basically between the first couple of minutes and when the line comes out and mostly on Sunday

is all public money. Like right now, there's not a lot of sharp players coming in strong. It's a lot of public money batting back and forth. And then come Sunday is when a lot of them pounce. And so we're going to get to Chiefs Bengals in a second. So the money right now to me is like, oh, you're batting this between one and a half and two and a half like okay and but two now is more important than ever because of the two-point conversion stuff right used to be where three was so important two now two and a half is important you go for two a

couple times and now the number falls on two and not three so we're thinking about here what's your what's your first lean on this on this game this is the one i feel more confident in than uh than the amc game let me hear it let me hear it it's philly yes it is philly you are correct sir i'm correct well yes make your case i'll then i'll make mine oh well the eagles are better um that helps yeah that's my here's my case so um let's start with quarterback right the most important position in all sports the eagles are better right the eagles the eagles offense wins because of jalen hurts right the offense is jalen hurts he is the reason why the offense goes yes they have good weapons they have an offensive lines all true but the offense is built around his skill set.

It's built around what he can do, throw the ball deep, take shots, play action, pass, and run the ball. We saw against the Giants, he ran the ball more, but I figure as he's getting healthier, he'll run the ball a lot more against the 49ers, okay? And the Niners aren't great against defending quarterback RPOs. I mean, you know, you can dig deep in the weeds if you want on some of these numbers.

So he's a better quarterback, okay? The Niners offense wins with Brock Purdy, not because of Brock Purdy. Those are differences, right? The Eagles offense wins because of Jalen Hurts. The Niners offense wins with Brock Purdy, okay? And we saw last weekend when he gets a little bit of pressure, when things aren't perfect, you don't get the same Brock Purdy. That throw to Kittle was great and all.

He threw that ball across the field. That ball gets intercepted in the link. It gets picked off in Philadelphia if he makes that throw. I saw that they said he started seven games, two on the road, one in Seattle, very loud, very hostile place. They only scored 21 points there. It was one of their least it was one of the least effective offensive games i saw a report that we were

preparing to play philly while we played seattle the crowd noise okay sure but that was like seven weeks ago a little different now you've been on the road or in vegas i think it was since that time at home or in Vegas, different atmosphere. Now you're going to Philly loud place to play. It's going to get, yes. Here's what the noise does. Let's say that you are in your office building. And again, like you're trying to talk to your, you're trying to communicate to someone else and you just can't hear them. Like you literally just can't hear it. It's not about snapping the ball. Really. It's not even about when the play is happening. It's the communication between you and your coworker.

You can't hear them. And then when things start going poorly, you start thinking about things and you can't think clearly because you're, it's so freaking loud. It's going to be that way in this game. Now, you know, third and 12, I need to talk to my offensive line. I need to talk to my running back. I need to figure out what's happening. Now the noise is pouring down on me oh my god the

clock's running out what do i do snap the ball and just it it kind of snowballs from there so purdy's not been that environment and i refuse to believe that a guy making his eighth start is going on the road matt into philadelphia and playing well under these conditions i couldn't agree more that's the main that's the crux of my case also you know we've mentioned this a bunch and maybe this is the week it actually is helpful no rookie quarterback has ever gotten further than this there have been four quarterbacks who've gotten to the championship rounds do you know who they are there's four i don't really i've never oh so i'll'll go in from most recent to furthest back. Okay.

Most recent was Mark Sanchez in 2009. Okay. With the jets 2008, the Ravens, Joe Flacco, 2004, Ben Roethlisberger, 1999 with Tampa, Sean King, who, who the, the younger folks who boss Hank listening in probably doesn't even know um I think he started a game against uh the the Comandantes in those playoffs he thinks Sean King is is the the uh the grifter Sean King the uh once kind of reminds me of Brock Purdy thinking back right like he was uh

he was like out of nowhere and then he relieved trent dilfer who was kind of maligned like jimmy g but then they ended up getting the championship anyway all four of those teams lost the other thing that's kind of interesting is all four of those teams had top three defenses uh the jets had the number one defense the ravens had number three pittsburgh had number one tampa at number three san francisco is a very similar team with a very good defense and rookie quarterback I don't think that it's possible to outscore Philly at home with a rookie quarterback with a bunch of injuries like Debo came back obviously but he he is not 100 he was a limited participant uh practice Wednesday and I just think like Philly has been one of seemingly like the easiest bets all year when they're a home favorite. Jalen hurts 15 and one this season straight up as a favorite.

He's 20 and three straight up. And this is essentially, I mean, it's two and a half. There's, you know, a key number there too, but you're getting a pretty low score here for a team that I think across

the board with a few blue chip exceptions is better like you said they just are and jalen hurts you could argue was maybe the best quarterback of the whole season this year then he missed some time yeah um so i just think that i this just doesn't feel like a game san francisco wins to me mostly because of purdy so it's worth noting a couple other a couple other things that are important in this game. I wrote about this for Fox Sports. If you want to check, I wrote three reasons

why the Eagles will win this game. You talk a lot about offensive, defensive lines. It's going to be an old school game. It's a line. It's a trenches game, which is funny because the next game is also that way. It doesn't feel that way because we talk so much about the quarterbacks in that game.

Sure. But they all are. It's funny. You get to this point and guess what? It's like some good offensive defensive lines. What a surprise. So the Niners pass rush we know is really good, right? But the Eagles offensive line is the best in the NFL. You have two Hall of Famers

on that offensive line. Jason Kelsey and Lane Johnson. Lane's a little hurt. So that matchup against Bosa is going to be important. We'll see how healthy he is to play this game. And the other three guys are pro bowlers, or at least they're not starting pro bowlers. They're alternates, Jordan Malata, Dickerson, and Isaac at right guard. So you have this group of five offensive linemen

that can handle the Niners' pass rush. Now, the Niners are going to win some, but they're not going to win all of them like they do all the time. Do this offensive line. They can win this. Now, Matt, did you know the Niners offensive line only has one Trent Williams, not five Trent Williams?

Bingo. Yeah. I feel like we forget that they have one Trent Williams. Who is the best in the NFL? So take him out of this, right? Guess what guys? The Eagles best pass rusher rushes over the right tackle, though. And

Hassan Riddick is, I think I looked up seventh in the NFL in pressures for a defensive end this season. Javon Hargrave, a D-tackle, is third in the NFL in most pressures for a defensive tackle in the National Football League. It's like

Chris Jones and someone else. I'd probably blank on who. It's not Donald this year. And then, boom, the Niners' offensive line outside of Trent Williams is not that good. They're buoyed by their offense. Like, their offense puts them in good positions. If they can't run the ball, they're going to be in spots

where they're getting rushed. And Purdy's in a situation where he's scrambling out the pocket, which we saw earlier in the Cowboys game, not as effective. Also worth noting here too, Matt, that in these games, when the line is very close and you're playing in these kind of close fires games, the fringes matter a lot too, right? And if you look at the numbers, and this is digging very deep into numbers, but the red zone efficiency, Eagles are better.

They're better overall, offense and defense compared to the Niners. Again, we're digging deep into the fringes here, right? But what do the Eagles do better than the Niners? Fourth down and two-point conversion. They are better than the Niners. I talked to a buddy of mine. Who's a Niners guy this week. And he said,

Shanahan just coaches to survive. He just coaches to get through the game. Sirianna doesn't do that. He coaches to win the game. Yep. And that's a big difference, right? Like if it's fourth and two at the 32 yard line,

the Eagles are going for it. We're going to score, try to score seven points. They may not get it, and that might cost them the game. But they might get it, though. Not as you get a field goal. And that could be a four-point swing. It could be a three-point swing if the Eagles don't get it.

But if they do, with Jalen Hurts' ability to run the football and all options they have, Matt, that's a huge difference in this game, and that could be the difference. Kyle Shanahan is historically conservative and has failed in some of these moments. Now, we don't know what Serena will do. He's not been in this moment before.

But we know throughout this season he has done a very good job at making sure that he takes advantage of the fourth down opportunities presented to him and is aggressive in those moments when he has to be the niners are not and that's a big difference in this game i think one other way that that bears out when you watch philly games i feel like every philly game i watched this year first drive bomb touchdown, touchdown. Second drive, touchdown. Third drive, touchdown. Like, they come out scorching hot all the time.

And that's a nightmare if you're in the 49ers, right? Like, if Jalen Hurts comes out and looks amazing, throws the ball down the field, and Brock Purdy's down two touchdowns, which could conceivably happen, because Philly, highest scoring first half team in the league, San Francisco six, by the way. I mean, these are two really good teams, but you do not want to be playing from behind if you're the Niners,

you'd want to be able to control this thing on the ground and not put Purdy in a position to kill you. So this is the one that it just became clear to me today. Actually, I was just sort of like, you know what? This is Philly's game. We're going to see them in the super bowl um i feel much more confident about this game than the next one and i almost feel like what i might end up doing jeff is betting um philly against each of the teams and seeing if i can like hedge around it or something um just because you know it does feel like uh this is this is happening i mean i think there's a way to to take the niners live in this game at some point where

if eagles get up 14 points i mean you might have a good opportunity to take them live but i think the next game is a great lay of opportunity like you just take whoever is losing in the second quarter plus the points that's just like just wherever who's ever losing we've seen now as we move to chiefs and bangles game where the chiefs have been up 18 points the bangles came back and this year the chiefs were down 11 points i believe it was and the bangles came back and the chiefs came back to lead this game chiefs have lost three straight to the bangles matt they have led by at least seven points in all three of the losses and they have had a 75 percent win expectancy in the fourth

quarter at one point in the fourth quarter and all three of the losses he lost all different ways right the first one was in cincinnati the second one was in arrowhead and the third one again was this season in cincinnati what makes the bangles so tough before we get to kind of the overall gist of this game is that they don't make mistakes okay they really don't they have only turned the ball over 18 times this season and five of those were in week one against the Steelers a game that we got right we picked the Steelers right game so that 13 the next 16 weeks of the season 16 games a season 13 that's really good that's awesome right they don't have a lot of penalties I looked up they're tied for the seven least amount 16 games this season. 13. That's really good. That's awesome, right? They don't have a lot of penalties.

I looked up. They're tied for the seven least amount of penalties against and third least amount of yards against. So when they commit penalties, Matt, they're not the pass interferences. They're not the personal fouls. They're not the killer penalties. And they don't give up a lot of explosive plays on defense. Like when you watch a play, you're not like, oh, that guy's wide open or there's that explosive run. Like they're just a quality football team.

Right. And so that's why they're here. They're here for obviously the other reasons that we're talking about in a second, but they're a team that scares me as a chiefs fan because of those reasons. But that being said, the chiefs have been in all these games.

Like they have not been blown out. They lost two of them in overtime no two one overtime two and one overtime both at the end of regulation i think it was they've lost them like the very end of every game no matter how they end up happening um so all that being said the chiefs are right there to win this game at and i don't know who i feel great about wagering on interesting so that means you're a little nervous about the chiefs then well okay well i mean here's why i'm nervous i can go okay so first of all before we get to that um this whole pat mahomes and joe burrow discussion is so stupid okay guys pat

mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. Joe Burrow, second best. Allen, third best, whatever. It's not that difficult discussion. Pat Mahomes is the only quarterback right now still playing on a second contract. They got rid of his best wide receiver. Now, Kelsey's still there, obviously. But they got rid of his best wide receiver. He's playing with Kelsey and then a bunch of twos and threes.

All right. That's my receiver. He's playing with Kelsey and then a bunch of twos and threes. All right. They've already undergone the transformation of the offense under a quarterback on a second contract. Joe Burrow still playing with all his weapons that haven't been paid yet. They have to pay a bail to pay everybody. So let's see Joe Burrow.

And I think he'll be great, but let's see him with two less of his weapons. Like let's see him without one of his weapons for an entire season. I just, I think that we are discounting what happened to the chiefs, Matt. I was a voice of reason. I know Nick Wright was a voice of reason. Who also is a friend of yours. Those are the only two voices of reason. When Tyreek Hill got traded. Oh my God, the Chiefs it's over it's done they're off and they were number one in the NFL in every category this season Pat Mahomes had his best season this year he's thrown

into Noah Gray and and McKinnon who entered the season the third string running back who had 70 targets and I don't even I looked this up Juju had like 70 catches which I didn't even realize was a thing MVS had 40 catches and and Kedaris Toney, the guy in the middle of the season, had 14 catches. And McCall Harmon's been hurt half the year, had 29 catches. Sky Moore had 15. It's not Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins and Boyd and Hayden Hurst. Now, of course, Travis Kelsey is fantastic. It's a huge benefit to have Travis Kelsey there. We know that. He's an all-fame player. The best I've ever. But this idea, like, Burrow hasn't had to do this yet.

Mahomes did that, and it's still really good. So this is a silly conversation. Mahomes could have 500 yards in this game, and the Chiefs can still lose. It doesn't mean that Mahomes is worse than Burrow because the Chiefs lose this game. But that would be the opposite of the narrative. It is what it is.

I mean, I can't change it, but that will be the narrative. So here's what concerns me about this game uh many things one um is you know if mahomes is not healthy 100 healthy which he'll be i think he'll be close it looks like he'll be close okay you know the bangles do a really good job of just kind of like squeezing the pocket around him when when they rush and they play this zone, man. Like, they kind of just, like, constrict the field. And this is the game he will miss Tyreek Hill more than any other game. He doesn't have that one wide receiver. You get a double Kelsey, and you say, if I were the Bengals,

I'd say every single play, double 87 makes someone else beat us. Anybody but him. MVS, Juju, Watson, any running back, just not Kelsey. And that's what happened the first half of the game in Cincinnati. So, what answer do the Chiefs have? Now they have Mahomes less mobile,

so what answer do the Chiefs have? I mean, this has to be Andy Reid's masterpiece, and I trust Andy Reid will get his team ready, but it has to be Andy Reid's masterpiece against the Bengals. And the Bengals know this as well. The Bengals know the Chiefs have to do this. I would like to see the Chiefs run the ball more, Matt. They ran the ball well in the first game.

Second game, third game, they ran the ball. Just run the ball more. Play action pass a little bit. Try to get the Bengals linebackers into situations where they have to guess if it's run or pass. Hit it behind that. But in the end, the Chiefs' offense, I think, will score the amount of points needed.

The question is, can the Chiefs' defense get off the field? They put a bend but don't break in the first game this season. Yeah, they didn't break, but they also didn't get any stops. They didn't get any stops. They tackled terribly, to be fair. Since then, they have tackled much better. They have been a better team. They took Williams out of the lineup,

and they have played mostly two rookies now on the defensive backfield. By the way, Trent McDuffie has played 12 games this season, the rookie. He is the Chiefs' 11-1 when he's in the lineup. I think the Bengals game was the only loss they're only allowing 206 yards passing versus 313 yards passing 58 completion percentage for 68 can i see where i'm going here right um qbr 50 versus 61 yards per attempt uh 7.4 versus like their defense is better than it has been. But they can't play as Ben, but don't break. You have to challenge Burrow.

And the Bengals' offensive line, who's probably not going to have their starters back this week, the Chiefs have to influence them. Like, they have to get Burrow down. They have to influence them. And it appears that that doesn't matter. So, I don't feel great the chiefs can stop the bangles offense if they can't get stopped they're not gonna win the game that's a lot of words but that's kind of

where i sit with this game right now i think it's the i mean a lot to dig into i think you're right and these games between these two teams have been so memorable. Joe Burrow in his career has five fourth quarter comebacks. Wait, he has seven total fourth quarter comeback wins. Three of them are against the Chiefs. And he's obviously undefeated against them. And last year's playoffs in Kansas City was one of them. For whatever reason, these games seem to all go kind of the same, which is the Bengals have to come back. Kansas City was one of them for whatever reason these games seem to all go kind of the same which

is the Bengals have to come back the Chiefs get a pretty comfortable lead they do the thing that the Chiefs do that drives me crazy watching them which is they get a little bit too cute they do these dumb running plays that don't do anything they don't just sit there and go like cool second and six power left you know like they're just not that kind of team they're all they've never been that kind of andy reed's never been that kind of coach um and it's you know been him in these situations before there was a time where it used to be hey andy reed can't make it out of the conference championship for i mean that was like the whole thing until the Mahomes first the Super Bowl I

thought it was fascinating watching the line movement on this this week it's opened at three with the Chiefs as a three-point favorite which felt fine I think that if honestly I think that the Bills being so overrated juiced it a little bit that this was probably they made this around four and then everybody came in on the Bengles because everybody again overrated the bills and i think that i think this discussion about burrow and mahomes burrow is i think it's a little easier to understand burrow than mahomes like for the average fan i know that seems like kind of counterintuitive but like we've seen joe burrow before this is what tom brady felt like right this is kind of what peyton manning felt like like all these guys who are just

like stand in the pocket accurate that's how they beat you mahomes this stuff every week where you're just like well i've never seen that like i don't know what that is and i you know what i mean like i feel like it's just a little harder to to wrap your head around it i mean burrow is more traditional that he you kind of the pocket passer, but also we do this thing and I don't like to compare Patrick Mahomes to like a LeBron James, but

I think we're desensitized to Patrick Mahomes greatness. Matt, he has started five seasons and he's in his fifth AFC Championship game at home. It's insane. He has yet to play a road playoff game i saw someone today say like well if he loses this game he'll have the most home playoff losses

ever i'm like so like the most home championship losses ever okay he's 27 i mean he's only played in these games like and they've all by the way his two losses have been in overtime but i feel goal well actually sorry the patriots won a touchdown that game um in 2018 like okay he just had one season where his defense was above average and that was 19 and they were 14th in dvoa and he won the super bowl it's such a silly discussion the reason why the line moved so much in my, is because people overreacted to Mahomes' ankle injury and Tony Romo said he wouldn't play.

People, again, the thing about gambling now because it's so mainstream is people get the wrong ideas about some of these line movement stuff, man. A number being bad around between two and two is nothing it

doesn't mean anything it didn't get to three either way and it opened by the way it opened offshore at three for literally that much time right there that's as much time as it was at three it opened in vegas at like one and a half and it was open to three not really it was like one and a half at like circa right and then it went to and it got to like one and a half at like circa, right? And then it went to, and it got to like one and a half the other side. Now it's back to cheese haired by one. Like it's just a bunch of people batting the number around back and forth. I don't like, by the way,

in the biggest jinx of all time, did you see that sports book who paid out their Bengals futures already? No. They're the official sports book of the Cincinnati Bengals. Betfred, I think it's called oh yeah and they paid out all their bangles futures to win the super bowl already and the liability must have been nothing right i mean there's no way they're doing this unless it's like near nothing right but how big of a jinx is that the payout the now they're of course they're

hopeful that you take the money you've won and bet it again this weekend, I would imagine, or next weekend and whatever else. But how much of a jinx is that? The official sportsbook of the Bengals is paying out Bengals to win the Super Bowl before they even beat the Chiefs. And it's funny that the Bengals fans whined on social media about the NFL rigging the games for the Bills and Chiefs to play each other

in the digital site game, and then they're accepting and cheering on getting money for a game that hasn't even been played yet. I mean, I'm sure that every Chiefs fan has been measured and composed and that there has been no flaws in how they've comported themselves in this situation i did want to say um this this blew me away uh another producer here mentioned this to me today

patrick mahomes has fewer losses in his career than burrow does think about that burrows in his third season mahomes is on his second contract as you said like he has had an unbelievable historic start to his career and you compared him I think to LeBron like I think he's the Steph Curry of basketball honestly oh yeah but my point is like the LeBron thing where LeBron's the MVP every year like this year he's averaging what 32 points on a bum-ass Lakers team and he won't even get MVP votes right he's 40 years old like come on yeah and it's right and i think you know you could probably say the same for steph curry where it's just like what is that team without him oh yeah and it's like in last year you know

i think both of us piece last night yeah it's like well does he not expect not to get thrown out when you chuck your mouthpiece across the court like what do you talk about like guys played like eight million career games he's gonna get thrown out of two like it's fine he's not a bad guy um i know but honestly i mean last year this it's funny because i last year when the playoff started i i put in a bunch of rundowns for nick and bet the warriors to win the title it's like steph curry's there like guys this isn't that hard like look at the rest of the field he's gonna win i feel like that's maybe how we should be looking at this with with mahomes where it's just like hang on we've got mahomes in here what are we doing should we just go ahead and just lay a point with him at home who cares about the ankle it's

patrick mahomes like i there is a big part of me that wants to do that i'm curious what you think well yeah so my basically chief's thought is like the law of averages sort of works the nfl like you know the vikings 11-0 one score games oh guess what they lost their one score game in the playoffs what a surprise right like the chiefs have again have had a 75 win expectancy in three of their losses in the fourth quarter against the bangles all three of them plus i know this is silly like a silly thing about this but the bangles players are talking a lot of shit right now they are and that's the nfl humbles you very fast like it is a very humbling sport and you call a burrowhead i said on twitter the bangles deserved to talk all the shit they can talk they have dominated the chiefs they own the chiefs they are allowed to

do this and i and i commend them for doing it but also typically bites you in the ass like remember this year when when justin reed came out before game and was like, I'm going to cover 88 or 87 or, like, I don't know, the tight end, whatever. Yep. Just shh. Just shh. Just let your talk do it. Look, man, any result would, except a blowout either way,

would be surprising to me, would not be surprising to me. But I think the Chiefs, it's sort of, if it doesn't go right this year, when does it go right for them in this game? You know, like this is, also there's this idea that, I've never been on a team like this. I can't speak to this. Maybe my brother can. We should call him to get him called.

We'll zoom out of his face to have him come on here. But, you know, like the Chiefs basically have waited 365 days for this game. Like they have, their whole off have waited 365 days for this game. Like they have their whole offseason was to play in this game again. They did the whole regular season, Matt, to play in this game again. I know the Bengals didn't in a sense, too. But like the Chiefs thought all offseason.

Bengals, Bengals, Bengals, Bengals. We need to beat the Bengals. Bengals, Bengals, Bengals, Bengals. They're here again at home hosting the Bengals. And so I wonder if that's part of it. Well, I also look at the under in this game. It dropped a lot, though. It was like 51 and dropped all the way to 46 or 47. So

not as great now to play it. In my opinion, I would have taken it at the 51. I kind of missed on that one there as well. So I'm not sure that I can give that one out. And now a couple of props in this game. And again, I haven't done as much prop originally.

Joe Mixon over three and a half receptions. I'd like a lot in this game. The Chiefs don't cover the back terribly well. And the Bengals have done a good job of throwing the ball to the running backs since Jamar Chase's injury, honestly. And I would also look at the thing about when you split, when you have running backs kind of split rushes, it's always hard to take the over in rush yards. But I really think there's a possibility here for the over the rush yard.

So he's had, you know, Mixon's had a couple games this year. He's been over the three and a half. It's a steep number for him at times. So I look in that direction. Mahomes over 280 passing yards. I wager on that already. I also think there's someone other than Kelsey has to have a big game. Yep.

If you can figure out who that is, whether it's like Kadarius Toney, who I think played pretty well last weekend. If he's the guy, I would look at his numbers. If you can get a rushing and receiving prop together for him, that number is at, what do you think it's going to be at? 65, 70? That would be more than he's had all season, I think. Last week was the most he had all year for combined yards in a game.

Yeah, last weekend he had 52 yards. I don't know what his number would have combined prop with a rushing total would be. Tony feels like a number, Matt, like that feels like a guy that they've been waiting to sort of break him out and he's the he's the shiftiest player they have like if you're saying okay who's the guy that's most like a tyreek hill like who can make the most plays of that ilk like who's who's got like just just like get the ball just like go it's him but those numbers aren't really up yet

i don't think so it's just crazy that we're talking about how they how badly they need cadarious tony you know what i mean like they don't need him but i know what you're saying it's like they need somebody other than kelsey well mccall hardman's supposed to be back too that'd be very helpful for them as well it's just kind of crazy like when you when you just zoom out and you know you take the quarterbacks out and we hardly even discuss the offensive and defensive line here and we should but when you just zoom out and you know you take the quarterbacks out and we've hardly even discussed offensive and defensive line here and we should but when you just talk about the bangles what makes the bangles great there are so many ways they can beat you on offense and that's it's not complicated why they're here and you look at the chiefs and it's the same thing it's just like

mahomes read infrastructure and like let's be they've, they had so many games this year where it felt like it could have gone either way at the very end. And 90% of the time, I mean, I'm just looking back at their schedule. They had a three point game against the Chargers that they won. That was, that didn't, wasn't that close.

They lost the Colts in a one possession game. They beat the Raiders by one in that crazy game. They lost that, that game to Buffalo. They blew out the 49ers. The Titans game went to overtime. The Chargers again was a three-point game. The Bengals was a three-point loss. Like every game is kind of the same where they're just, it comes down to like, can Mahomes pull them out of it with a crazy thing at the end of the game? And honestly, like they haven't really been tested since that 49ers game I mean Jacksonville last week obviously was a test but pretty easy drive I think you could argue and the Bengals it's just like okay who's who's got a defense that can stop that amount of weapons

and you know the offensive line injuries for some reason it just doesn't seem to matter with them like i mean in theory chris jones should have a good game today he i think is the key of this entire thing it's like can if if chris jones can get home and burrows uncomfortable and they have to do something that isn't just sit there and pop them off to the three receivers then i think the chiefs could win this game more comfortably than anyone expects. But, you know, it's not that. It's not, I don't know, at this point in the season, with this good of a defensive coordinator in Cincinnati,

like, it is not complicated what the Chiefs need to do. And if you're in a position where you're like, cool, make Darius Toney and Noah Gray beat us, like, that's a nice spot for them. Noah Gray can, though. Sure. But so, he can. but it's really about my homes i just think you mentioned like well if they can't get the monkey off their back this year when can they do it i the shit talking that cincinnati's been doing is is i think very concerning if you're back in the bangles but i actually think like this is kind of the bangles year it's almost all in her bus here, more so than the Chiefs.

The Chiefs, as our friend Nick says a lot, played more rookies than anyone this year except the Bears. The Chiefs are still ascending. To keep with the Warriors metaphor, they're reloading as they rebuild, right? Well, they certainly are. They're in the best spot of any contender in a long time. They put four rookies on defense, and they have like a million, $100 million in cap space,

and their quarterback's already paid. Yeah, they're great. This is not it for them. And the Bengals, at some point, you'd think their defensive coordinator gets the job. You'd think that they're going to maybe lose, I don't know, Boyd or somebody with all the money that they're going to have to allocate to their receivers and Burrow, obviously. I don't know Boyd or somebody like you know with with all the money that they're gonna have to allocate to their receivers and Burrow obviously I don't know the more we talk about it the more I

feel like the Bengals probably win but it's so scary to go against Mahomes at home as either a short favorite where he's amazing or as a home dog where he's only been a home dog once in his whole career um I still I don't know. I still don't know what I'm going to do here. I'm going to sit this one out. All right. I'm going to go on record and say I'm going to take the Bengals. I said the Chiefs are going to win 24-23 in the article I wrote,

but that's more like my heart talking. I think it's a three-point game either way. I think it's within the number, like close to a three-point game either way. I don't know. It's going to be crazy. i mean if if mahomes is at 85 that's concerning we need a for the chiefs he's not gonna be 100 and i think you need him to be close yeah but you can get dude i'm telling you like you could have like this like andy reed just like vintage masterpiece game from him you could have that pull of like this could be that game man it could it could also be the game where you're like wait remember how andy reed could never win

a big game like it could be that um the like what needs to happen for each side it feels like more needs to happen for the chiefs to win than needs to happen for the Bengals to win to me yeah um but that doesn't mean anything because we're going against you know one maybe one of the best quarterbacks of all time it's gonna be it's gonna be a lot of fun I cannot it's gonna be a great game I mean we just spent a long time talking about it we're still like I don't know and I think that's what makes it so much fun that game feels like that's gonna be great man it's gonna be like i cannot wait uh for these games this weekend we hit some props um do you have any more i mean i i haven't gone i haven't gone there like i i say this every year like i want to do more problems but i don't want for

work i don't really have to do them so like i don't really i don't really do very much i do a lot more on sundays when i start looking kind of around do you think do you any ones you like i kind of like uh i think i might bet jalen hurts super bowl mvp this week uh get plus 300 on that because if the eagles win and i'm pretty convinced they will then he will be the favorite um maybe co-favorite to win the mvp next week or two weeks from now um you could do the same with whatever quarterback of whatever game you're most confident in like burrows at 350 that's also a really good one because it's like if the bangles get there he's winning the mvp if they win the game um i like mckinnon two touchdowns plus 1300 uh he's been an absolute

weapon for them in the red zone feel like that's you know that's not one you bet the house on obviously but pretty nice return we mentioned the uh the total the afc game came in really high and kept dropping and dropping and dropping so you'd think that's the gonna head to the under i almost i keep wondering if there's a tease where you could tease down the points in the uh in that game and take the over but i can't figure out what it would be because you know i'm not teasing through zero look when the chiefs were at minus we're getting two and a half points i teased them with the with the niners i mean like like i had to i felt like i was like to get eight and a half points i felt obliged like if i didn't do that the gambling gods would come down and spite me

yeah for like i had to and i didn't even want to do because i think the niners could lose by more than would that be seven and a half so like if i did anyways i just couldn't help myself but the chiefs and i could i couldn't find any other way to take the value in that. I just couldn't do it. One basketball thing very quickly. Are you a basketball fan? Yeah. Okay. How do they fix the players sitting out these games? Because it seems it's becoming a real issue where the back-to-backs,

the stars just aren't playing these games. And I feel bad. I had this problem last year. We went to a Hornets game, andbron was a lakers lakers horn my whole lakers fan uh lakers hornets game and lebron ad both didn't play i paid good money for seats brought my kid and it's like well i'm here to watch westbrook and four backups play that kind of stinks i didn't go this year i also wasn't in town lebron had like 47 points in Charlotte too, which is the funniest thing this year.

But I can afford to lose $500 on a game like that. Imagine if you're not of my tax bracket and you spend all this money to go to a game and no one plays in the game. It's terrible for the fans. I know. Imagine if like, oh, you know, Mahomes is coming to houston this week he's

gonna sit we're just gonna sit mahomes uh give him a little bit of extra rest like it's just so crazy when you compare with the nfl i mean i i know they just talked about this on simmons podcast maybe that's part of the reason you're you're bringing no i don't listen much to the nba stuff yet well he someone on the show suggested i can't remember who it was suggested. They do know a lot of the games where they're going to sit guys, right? Like they, it's all, it's all pre it's all planned out. Yes. It's like, can't you just announce that with, you know, with all it, you don't even have to say like, well, LeBron only, but if you say like, you know, barring injury, another

injury to any of these guys, cause this is ostensibly like for health management like lebron's not playing in charlotte so just that's just like good to know and then you can look at the tickets and be like oh interesting this this ticket price is really low i bet lebron's not playing and you can confirm it but everyone everyone the problem is everyone would the whole league would make less money because no one would go to the games right which is i mean i honestly like i keep up with basketball pretty well but it because of this problem now there's no reason to follow it until after the superbowl none there's no reason at all you just check in you're like oh okay like this is about where things are and then the last month of the season everything kind of crystallizes and then even the first round or two of the playoffs don't really seem to matter and then it really heats up and

it's incredible yeah so i i've always felt this way about the nba not always i take it back like the last three or four years and then i'll watch all sports like i'm a sports fan um but i spent so much time on football that i i catch my basketball for the super bowl for the most part i have to watch pac-12 basketball, unfortunately, for work. At least pay attention to it, at least enough. Is the NBA playoffs, like let's say today was the last day of NBA regular season. And then Saturday was the first day of the playoffs. The two sports do not look the same.

Yep. Like Saturday of the NBA playoffs looks nothing like Thursday of the regular season. That's my problem. Like the NFL looks exactly. Now we have better players playing, but the sport looks the same, but then you get to the playoffs and NBA.

Like why watch the regular season? If you're like casual fan, like me, there's no, there's no point because I'm going to watch a better product in the in the postseason i'm going to watch guys play defense in the postseason so defense mean i'm not saying you have to play defense all the time but it's like a whole different product in the postseason i just feel like the product is not great right now and i get i get it they make a ton of money nba bros are gonna be pissed at this they get so angry when

i tweet about the nba it's like a weird thing nba bros on twitter i get angry man yeah everyone's so defensive about their thing i'm just like i'm a casual fan like the nba me watching is what the nba wants like casual kind of a casual fan like i like watching sports i like watching good players play sports but every regular season to me is is i don't know can i give you my one old man grab about the NBA? Please. Too many uniforms. I can't. If I turn on a game and I don't know who's playing,

like I don't know who the home or away team is, it bothers me. I'm with you. I feel that way about some of these NFL uniforms too. It's like, I don't know. One time I turned on a game and I could have sworn the Vancouver Grizzlies were playing. I think it was like the Phoenix Suns. I'm like, what?

Why are the Milwaukee Bucks wearing the Lakers uniforms? It's so insane, dude. I looked it up last year. Technically, their color is from the old Laker uniform. That's where the Lakers obviously came from. That's technically in their color scheme is the blue they're wearing. They never wore it before. Sometimes I can't do it

i'm like who's playing who what's what's happening here it's so confusing to me what was the game it was towards the end of the season there was some like old school in the nfl was it like the browns logo or maybe it was the giants there was some dumb logo that everyone was wearing and it was like a really important game and this isn't the Patriots logo it was something maybe it was the Browns and it was the end of the year and it had like a mask on it that I'd never seen before and I'm like guys it's week 17 week 18 this game matters for playoffs waiting wait this year yeah I can't remember what it was but it when if you're ever like what team is this especially in in the NFL, it's like,

it's just not worth it. Well, I also, I've also thought like the TCU helmets in the championship game. I'm like, is that what, what is that in your helmet? Yeah. The Oregon fan here confused by too many uniforms. Time out. Maryland fan with your freaking helmets.

Let's look, let's take a deep breath here with those helmets. Dude, we got to get some attention on Maryland. We're just trying to get ourselves out there. The flag helmet's brutal. The flag helmet's brutal. The flag's great. Come on. The flag helmet stinks.

Man, that's an asinine take. I think we can agree that Texas has the worst uniforms in college football. I mean, Texas certainly is the worst fan. Too bland and boring. Too bland and boring. All right, that's my old men NBA take. The uniforms are out of control. There's too much.

So welcome to Jeff Schwartz's Smart New NBA Takes. There we go. So your prediction officially for the Super Bowl? I'm going to go Eagles-Chiefs. I'm going to go Eagles-Bengals, barely. Yeah, the Bengals game will be better. I'm trying to do a live show after the game, so we'll see if that works.

It's earlier than usual. Well, then a Sunday night football game, so I should be able to do that. We'll see what happens. And all right, everyone. Have a great weekend of watching sports we'll be back in a couple of days have a great one take care everyone