Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Is Indiana Jones The Future Trade Deadline Recap And Week 10 Best Bets

Episode Date: January 11, 2026

Geoff Schwartz and Matt Ford dive into the craziest NFL trade deadline in recent memory and break down every matchup on tap for Week 10. Can the Colts survive without draft capital? Will the Dolphins rebound from rock bottom? And is anyone safe from the chaos that is Bo Nix? Stick around for our five best bets of the week, and Geoff’s can’t-miss college football picks. Plus: real talk about how bad our betting streak is—and how this week might just turn it all around. All that and more on "Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You." Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hello, welcome to Jeff Schwartz and Smarney. Jeffs, Braffings, the crown is yours. It is Thursday, November 6th. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. Matt, we're here to talk about National Football League. We're here to talk about the picks that we are making. They have not gone very well, but what did go very well yesterday in the National Football League was the trade deadline.

We've got to recap there. How about we start with something positive? Some of these trades now, the NFL is going wild. We're going to have a deadline full of deals. You know what, I would trade, Jeff. I would trade anything for a frickin' win. We are getting skunked out there, but we'll get to that. The big stories were the Jets doing a giant sell-off,

Quinn and Williams going to Dallas, sauce Gardner to the Colts, Reese Hall stays much to his chagrin. Did you like any of the moves that, well, what was your favorite of those five moves I just made? We'll get to my favorite. We're going to talk about two other ones quickly. The Colts trading two first round picks for Stars Gardner to me is going to backfire pretty heavily on them. So the first thing I thought when I saw this was this is a signal that Daniel Jones is their long-term quarterback.

Because they have no ammo to get a quarterback now. People will say that you can draft a quarterback after the first round. There's a very low success rate. There's only three quarterbacks right now in the NFL that consider franchise guys that were not drafted in the first round. Jalen Hurts, Dak, Prescott, and Brock Purdy. right everyone else first round pick or young player in you know first round pick right it's a first round round pick quarterback league so without first round picks matt you have decided that daniel jones is your guy the best advice i ever got was from a high school football coach said don't lie to yourself

don't lie to yourself applies to everything in life don't lie to yourself the culture lying in themselves you've played nine games with daniel jones that's it it feels way too early to declare this is your guy for the next three or four years. And this is worrisome, I think, if you're a Colts fan, because there's very little NFL history that lets you know or what you think that Daniel Jones is going to be better than Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, you know, to tell him with that Lamar Jackson,

Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, like all the upper echelon quarterbacks in the AFC that they have to beat to get to a Super Bowl. There's no evidence that that's going to happen. And you've now traded away your, future at that position to sign Daniel Jones. And it feels foolish, Matt. It feels like a foolish decision to do, especially. And look, it's a one-game sample size after he played so terribly the offense did

against the voodoo Steelers. And so I just didn't like it from that perspective. I get going for it. Sure, go for it. I think Salsa play better on a team that actually is trying to win. And that typically does happen with some of these players that might be depressed a little bit on the team they're in that's losing. to get to a waiting team, they play much better, Matt.

My takeaway from this is that the Colts are all on Daniel Jones, and I just don't know if you're nine games, that's what you want to be in. I agree. We've seen this movie before. I think two first round picks for a corner, any corner. It's not like Sloss was playing amazingly this year anyway. It's based, you know, a little bit on the past

and also his projection moving forward. But, like, you know, we've joked on this podcast before about Chris Ballard and his rep in this business. and how he seems to have just like a flawless reputation among the sports media industrial complex. Anytime that guy does anything, people just fall over themselves to be like, what a smart move, what an amazing choice.

But, you know, looking forward, like this is kind of an aging team. There's a lot of guys where you're like, huh, okay, the highest paid guys on the team, top three. The Forrest Buckner, Michael Pittman, 28-year-old receiver making $23 million. I don't even know if he'd be in the top 25 receivers, I would think, in the league. And Quentin Nelson, like, okay, he's 29.

Like, they just have a very oddly constructed team. And I get it. You're going for it this year. And you look at an AFC South that has a lot of flaws. But I thought that was a monster overpay and an overpay for a name way more than the production. I agree. I agree. And then the Jets trade Quinn Williams to the Cowboys.

It just got three first-round picks. What a deal for that. So, Matt, I don't know if your wife is this way, but my wife works. full-time right and she's a mother as well she's does some other things and like on the weekends i'm like are you going to like relax you're going to chill or you're going to just create like chaos in your life and every weekend she just just chaos right she chooses to just be busy and chaotic and to spend money that we don't need to spend like why are you buying this thing from home goods we don't need like what do you why are you ordering this everybody i'm like what did why what

What are you doing here? Why are you doing this? That feels like Jerry Jones. Why? Why are you doing this? What are you doing? They're chasing chaos, man. They're chasing the next thing.

And they can't just be like in their person and just relax and just live in what they have. And of course, look, my wife's fantastic. I love my wife. But it's just like, I told her yesterday I was doing this analogy, by the way. And she just kind of giggled and didn't even know what I was talking about. So nonetheless, like, Jerry Jones, just can't be still, man. These trades make no sense.

You got a linebacker from the Bengals who was benched on maybe the worst defense we've ever seen in F or history. Okay? And you got a defense to tackle, I think, has one sack this season, like three pressures. For a first-round pick. And the Jets, by the way, get to choose which first-round pick it is.

The better one they get in two years, Matt. Makes no sense. It reminds me of someone, again, who just like can't be present without doing something chaotic or having to change something or having to, like just, I don't understand it, Matt. It makes no sense unless you look at it from that prism of like, they must have chaos in life at all times.

I mean, I think he's just so tired of getting wrapped on for the Mike Parsons thing that it's like, look, we're still active, we're still doing stuff. I mean, it's just sort of like they paid around Bland. They're going to pay Quinn Williams. they're going to, you know, they get Kenny Clark, which now, like, what is that, that movement kind of makes no sense. But essentially, if it's, you send out Parsons and second rounder, you get back Kenny Clark, Quinn and Williams in the first rounder. I think I have that right.

Like, is that, was that worth it? Like, I'm not sure that it was. It's a very strange, a strange move. They seem to, I think, I think the Cowboys had a personal problem with Michael Parsons. It's kind of the only thing you can talk this up to because none of these moves makes sense. afterwards and it's like they're paying the wrong people. So I don't know, I thought I they've made a lot of smart moves over the years, but this one this this sequence, it just feels like way out of control.

You know what's crazy too is the Cowboys actually really good in the draft. That actually draft were amazing players, but they they don't play like it from for the most part. It's a, it's a wild thing that, that Cowboys are doing right now. My favorite move was probably the Shaheed trade for Seattle. So, JSN, we took us over, I believe, in our preseason props. It's like a game way from hitting. It's like 900.

It's like one more commander's game away from hitting. He's like 990 yards. And the next best receiver is 250. So it makes a ton of sense to add one more wide receiver to that mix. Seattle is the one season in the NFC is kind of interesting, Matt. When you look at their schedules and look at the rest teams in the NFC, I don't think Seattle is better than the Rams or better than the Eagles. To be fair, they've also lost the two good teams they played.

The Seahawks have, they beat everyone else, which is a good thing you're supposed to do. But Seattle would be the one team is fairly interesting. I like that move for Seattle. I've made a lot of sense. Jacksonville, no idea what they're doing. Two picks for Jacoby Myers? What? What?

How many picks are they going to use on receivers for this team? It's just insane. And then the Travis Hunter trade, and Hunter's hurt, unfortunately, because you're playing them in two positions, and he got hurt at cornerback and perhaps it should be playing wide receiver. I don't know what they're doing. I know their general manager is a Rams guy, so maybe F them picks is what he, but the Rams eventually were like, yeah, we kind of need those picks back at some point. It's a two first next year.

Yeah. So I don't know what Jacksonville is doing. And I like, so Shihitrade was my favorite, I think. I love what the Jets did. I think, look, are they going to draft the right guys, Matt? I don't know. Are they trustworthy? I don't know.

I don't know. But they have the ammo now to be as flexible as they want in this draft and the next draft. Yeah, I do too. I am very confused by Jacksonville. Hank points out they have 11 picks next year because it's the Travis Hunter thing. Maybe they'll draft five more receivers, you know? Ryan Thomas, Travis Hunter, Jacoby Myers, Diami Brown, and they still have like a totally mediocre offense.

Very, very strange team. The AFC South doesn't know what it is. Okay, should we transition to our picks and people can People can turn off the show now if they or they can turn keep the show on and bet against us and and profit hugely So one one more thing on the trades The chiefs did not make a trade for a running back I know Chiefsons wanted that I don't think that's a normal one problem

They have very few draft picks next season They are supposed to offer a fourth for Breece Hall about would have been fine a fourth round pick. They don't need a, they need you're running back, but it's not, yeah, but it's not a need that you trade a pick for, in my opinion. So I'm not surprised the chief stood still. A lot of teams that I think people thought contender-wise would try to make a deal, did not make a deal, because the draft picks are valuable. And I think it's important, again, to not lie to yourself, right? The chief say, like, we're not really a running back away from where we want to be. Are we trading a pick next year for running back

that won't be under contract next season? The answer is no, right? So I think that makes a lot of sense why they didn't do anything, Matt. It's interesting. Yeah, I mean, I don't know. I might have done it if I were them. Like, watching them play Buffalo, you know, when they go against these really good teams that know them well, they don't really have a threat of a run game at all.

And, you know, maybe I don't see that getting better with Pacheco coming back. Like, you know, they haven't figured out a way to work Smith in yet, really. But I do wonder if, like, they, I kind of wonder if they are running back away. Like, I know that seems kind of crazy, but, like, If their offenses, we saw what a defense can do, a banged up defense that didn't have it all or, like, kind of figure them out last week. So I get the logic. You're right. That's certainly how they saw it.

But I kind of feel like it might have been worth it. Yeah. They also just did try, like, to run the football. That's also, a lot of this stems from, like, the idea that chiefs don't try to run the football, in my opinion, Matt. Like, they don't try to do it. And that hurts them overall. Like, if you had a better running back and you ran the ball the way they did, maybe you have more explosive runs when you do try to run the football.

But that game plan should have been 30 carries for the running back against Buffalo. And it wasn't. It wasn't. It's just bad game plan, too. Yeah, interesting. Personnel informing the plan or the other way around. Yeah, I don't know. I was surprised.

I mean, that would have felt worth it to me. but I get why they didn't do it. Anything else? Ealing Phillips? Yeah, look, I think Eagles with Vigfangio, they know Phillips, and so they took a risk. It's a pretty high-risk, third-round pick. The Dolphins should be pumped.

They got a third-round pick for Phillips. Otherwise, it felt like it was a fun little hour there where we got a lot of NFL news mid-week we normally don't get as we get into our picks now for the week. Let's take a break, Matt. We'll be right back, and we'll get into, our wagers for the week. All right, Matt, we're back at the time of the show where we give our picks for the week and it's not going well. It's going about as bad as it can go. And we'll

continue to do the exercise. Part of it is we've been, I think, just unlucky. Part of it is doing this on Wednesday is really hurt because injury reports and trying to pick games way out before we know who's playing has been affecting us. I mean, look, last week, Matt, we have the Chargers against the Titans. The Chargers scored 27 points in offense. The Titans scored six and we didn't cover. Yeah. I don't know what else to do.

I mean, look, man, I think the problem is like we're just too good of employees for draft games. Like we care too much about a relationship with our sponsor that we refuse to make them pay out any of our bets. So we continue to just give them our money because we're that. committed to this show and this organization. And like, people don't talk enough about heart when it comes to gambling. You know, like we, our heart is in the right place here.

And we will continue to generously subsidize draft kings until, you know, maybe we get one of these games right. But I just, I don't know. I don't know if we should take all the credit for being so generous. But like, like, I do kind of feel like we deserve some. All I know is that in a lot of these contests, right, you try to. win of course but a lot of them have prizes for finishing last place Matt if we try to be as bad as we are right now we wouldn't do it it wouldn't happen it just wouldn't happen so if you've

tailed us you're broke I'm sorry um hopefully obviously of course you used wise money management as you should wise bankroll management if you have faded us you should send me a Christmas card at mout four 10 yep yeah um and you send Matt the money. I'm okay. He does this for fun. Give him a little bit of money for this. So we'll make our way through the games as usual. We're going to give ourselves possibly the grace on Friday via my social media to swap things in and out depending on injury news. Like for example, we're, of course, on Wednesday. CJ Stroud, we don't know his status yet. So it's hard to make a play on that game unless we know. I'm not saying we're just going to decide to take one side and then switch it up on

Friday, but just letting you guys know that we're going to give ourselves a little bit of grace because we're getting killed with these injuries stuff. Like this changes so quickly. We're going to give ourselves an on-deck circle where if we like our sixth game, we're going to be like maybe this will be our swap. Like I think that's a very fair. And it doesn't necessarily have to be based on an injury, but let's like give ourselves a little bit of an out here because by the time we get Saturday, half of the weeks where like I kind of went like you'll say I really like this one now. And I'll say, yeah, I do too. You know, like it's kind of funny that we end up. You know, switching around so much during the week.

Like, like, for example, like, I probably by Monday night would have been on Cardinals plus three and a half instead of Cowboys minus two. I know that's obviously like hindsight, but like that felt like one of those where like that was pretty clearly the size, especially after a weekend where those dogs all covered and you're like, Arizona's going to win this game outright. And we didn't know the percent stuff either. Like we didn't know that information, right, Matt? So that makes a big difference. And so let's start out with Thursday night football here. Quick note on Thursday, the Raiders and the Broncos.

31 teams have played on Thursday NFL following an overtime game like the Raiders had yesterday. This is from a tweet, right? They're 6 and 25 against its spread since 2000. 3 and 16 on the road. So the Raiders are getting

9.5 points in Denver this weekend, Matt. Are we playing the Broncos here on Thursday night? I don't mind it. I got to be honest. I don't mind it. I mean, I think what's sort of the incentive here for the Raiders anyway? What's the path against a really good defense? A team that needs to keep pace and set the pace with the chiefs. They're still in play for the one seed in the AFC, which is crazy.

But yeah, it's like they lost in the most brutal way possible four days ago. And now they're going to Denver to play a team that tends to do. do really well against favorites. Bo Nix, 10 and 4 against the spread is a favorite, 6 and 7 as an underdog. So, you know, I think, I don't think this is a bad play at all.

It's a little bit of a dicey one, and the line has moved up. The sharp side has been the Raider side. At least it appears now that it's at this number. So I would definitely consider this, but it's not great laying 10 with Bo Nix, but I'm certainly open to this. that's the problem.

Lay in time with Boatniks. He's not a late 10 with quarterback. And I'm not saying that, you know, the Raiders are going to win this game. But Matt, that scares the heck out of me. Lane time with Bowdo Knicks, man. I don't love it at all. But, I mean, I don't know if we love five this week.

So it has to be in the consideration. Yeah. Let's maybe it. It's clearly the side we would want. You know, we're still, I think last week, you know, we, we kind of, this is why you can't time the market in stocks. Like we were like, cool, so the favorites are just going to cover every week.

And we took five favorites. And that was the week that the underdogs finally woke up. We like sort of abandon our strategy. So I think here this would be a little bit of a square play, but the favorites have done really well this season. They didn't last week. So, you know, we just have to consider all of that. But let's put it as a maybe.

Okay, the Berlin game this week, Falcons Colts, kind of an important game. This line has moved towards the Colts, actually. Falcons are catching six and a half points. Man, this has really moved a lot since I checked in on this one. What do you think here? We're going to break one of our rules and take the Falcons? I just...

Oh, right, we're prevented from doing that. The Falcons are clearly the side here. I actually bet on them on Sunday for two reasons because one, two very smart people I know were on the Falcons and then one very bad person was on the Patriots. So I actually won money on the Falcons on Sunday personally. But again, like, that's the point. This is a Sunday thing, right?

Like our picture would be so I picked the Falcons in my Sunday radio show. But we do this on Wednesday. Enough bitching from us, but that's the truth of it. So, um, I mean, the fat play is only the Falcons here, Matt. Yeah. This is a very big number. And people, I guess, keep coming in on the Colts because this, this was sitting around like five, five and a half.

that was sort of like, oh, maybe, but I kind of feel like the Falcons are a good side here. Colts got a bit exposed. You know, we're waiting for Daniel Jones to turn into a pumpkin anyway. Falcons should have a pretty decent pass rush here. But the maybe's. Maybe it's worth it. It's also like the Falcons last week, like, it felt like that they should have won that game and also that they should have been blown out.

I don't really know how to explain that, but like Drake London making a hundred, 100 circus catches was the only reason that that game was close. And they forced to fumble. They forced to fumble there. The paths were about to go up like 21. They forced to fumble. Yeah, correct. And they, you know, their defense was like kind of good.

Like they got a lot of pressure, but they also gave up a lot of dumb stuff. So there's such a tricky team to project. But that number is really high for a cult team that I think has come back down to Earth a little bit. So I'd say that's another maybe, but like, Falcons, Falcons as an underdog in Berlin is like all the red flags I could possibly think of. Oh, yeah. So maybe we lay off of that, but I do, that is interesting.

It's a maybe. Yeah. All right. Moving to the one o'clock's, uh, J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings are catching three and a half points to Baltimore. Oh. Oh. Oh. I don't know what, I don't know what to do here.

Like I, they, they definitely looked like a functional team last week, got a nice, the Vikings got a nice upset, but I think both of us are probably on the same page on McCarthy, which is like kind of not totally sure yet. This feels like a kind of small line for a Lamar Ravens team. You know, he owns the NFC teams he's played. He's like 28 and 3. I don't know. This is just a really weird number.

I mean, I would back Baltimore here, but I mean, is Baltimore, How much better? They just played a bad Dolphins team, though. Like, the Vikings have really good pieces. They just hadn't played that way until they played the Lions. And that game, obviously, was a lot different. I think we both thought it was going to happen.

You're right about Lamar, you know, and the scrambling and just the ability to make plays with these NFC teams. We just don't see that very often. And that's why these teams have issues playing Lamar in the situation. You, again, do we fade basically, like the Vikings after a big win? I'm pulling up some of the stuff on Action Network right now. But, you know, just like it's, there's no real trends other than just straight up

the Ravens win these games with Lamar to show that they're going to cover this game. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, weirdly O'Connell is 0 and 5 against the spread after facing the Lions, which is kind of strange. I'm just doing it cover by 11.9 points per game. So maybe it's just like you play this physical team, you get beat up,

and then you kind of think the next week. I think I would probably lead Baltimore too here. I just think they have like a lot of belief and they feel like a hotter team than this Vikings team that I still can't really get a handle on. But this one feels very, very dicey to me, and I think I'd prefer to stay away. But Baltimore would be, we would both be on the same side there.

Yeah, I think it's just not worth a play. Yeah. Okay, let's play this one. The Tom Brady Bowl, Pat's at Bucks. The Bucks are two and a half point favorites at home. This is my favorite of the week. Are you with me on the Bucks here? Oh, 1,000 percent.

Just put it right. Number one, Tampa Bay right here. Minus two and a half. Done. We have our first official pick of the week. We're O for the season. We both agree, so good luck to us. But this is just a great spot for Tampa Bay off a buy.

they're going to be healthier. The window for the right tackle, I believe, opened up. He's probably going to play this weekend to practice. When their office line is a whole, it's a lot better team, right? They're going to be refreshed. They're going to have, you know, some new things for New England. And New England is itching to play a bad game. Like, this is a different team than the teams they've played so far.

I know they beat Buffalo. I get it. But, man, this feels like a really difficult spot. for a team off a so-so performance against Atlanta on the road in Tampa. They've won six in a row. They just keep winning, Matt, and keep winning the rest of the season. So I like Tampa being the spot a ton.

Yeah, and they're not playing a really sustainable formula in New England. It's like in the last, in the last three games against Atlanta, Cleveland, and Tennessee. Granted, like there's some decent pass rush in there. Drake May has taken 16 sacks. Like this is a not the defensive front to sort of like make dumb mistakes against. Tampa Bay top 10 and, you know, all the sack metrics, you know, percentage and just total sacks and all that.

So I think they're going to face, you know, they're facing a rested team. Like this is a big boy team, the Bucks. Like they've, they kind of, you know, they won the last time they played, but it was like a weird win. I think it was against, it was the Saints, right?

They, uh, they just are going to round back into form here, I think that as we talk Wednesday, we don't know about Bucky Irving. We don't know about Chris Godwin, but it does seem like they're still getting healthier. only potential worry here is the bucks listen to this stretch they have next they go Patriots at bills at Rams so maybe they are doing a little bit of a look ahead here but I doubt it coming off the buy in this is professional of a team I this was the one that I looked at and I was

like thank God this isn't more because I just I don't know the Patriots feel like a very public dog to me so I love Tampa here yeah and the last game to have played was against that lions right where they looked really bad so I think you're off the by you're pretty pissed off by the way you played. They beat the Saints afterwards, but it was a weird game. Oh, they'd be the since afterwards? Remember they had that, like, those touchdowns called back, and it was, like, close, and it was just sort of a weird game. Yes, you're right, yes.

Yeah, and Big Buka should be playing, too, which is nice. All right, let's stick that one in. Moving on to Bill's Dolphins. Bill's riding high. Dolphins look like maybe the worst team in the league. There's a lot of contenders for that one. the dolphins are catching nine and a half and they would be the sharp side here but i don't know do you have a side here i i feel like i can't possibly convince us to take the dolphins

no no chance they could be dead man walking there's just no chance yeah this is either a like weirdly close game or it's buffalo wins by 40 it's those there's the only two options yes it's like a like a late field goal for the the the bills or they win by a hundred. I strongly agree with you there. Yeah. The reason to take the dolphins here, after a blowout loss,

home dogs of seven or more are 60% against the spread, 15 and 7 in the last five years. For what it's worth, like the ownership does seem to be in on Mike McDaniel. They seem to have pinned the problem on Chris Greer. So if maybe Mike McDaniel hasn't lost this team yet, maybe,

but I don't know. I just, I can't come around. on this one, but I do feel like... I think you make the case that Miami can just... They would do the anti-Chiefs game, and just run the ball as much as possible against the bills. And just shorten the game up and try to get in the Reds as much as possible and sort of create some chaos on the offense.

And he's just shorting the game up like that. And H.N's really explosive runner. Like, he... And this is this Bill's defense between tackles. He can probably do a lot of damage. Yeah. And this is just like another just game that the bills can kind of like just look past.

So, I don't know. But they take care of business in this spot traditionally. They beat the Saints by 12. They beat the Panthers by 30. Beat the Jets by 20. Beat the dolphins earlier, the season by 10. So that game was kind of tight, though, for a little while. Yeah, I think it's a pass, but I don't know.

Can we put the dolphins in the maybes, actually? Let's just, if we don't have five, I feel like I might be more comfortable with that than certainly the Falcons. Worth noting, I do this bet every week. I bet the tight ends against the Miami Dolphins, I think that's one every week, Matt. So when the numbers come up, bet Kincaid over, it's a great wage to make.

Both tight ends on the Ravens had great games against them on Thursday and football. So worth noting here for Kincaid. Interesting. I don't think draft Kings has lines. Wait, for the tight ends. No. Oh, Kincaid.

You can go over 40 yards for plus 126. Yes. Yeah. Yeah, that's good. 25 plus is minus 210. Okay, love that. Let's do that one.

Kincaid plus 40 yards. Okay, Giants at Bears. The Bears, man. What a strange season that they have had. They are laying four and a half now to the Giants. Yeah. Oh, boy. I've been down for the Giants, Matt.

Yep. They're the right side. Okay. Well, look, these teams are very close analytically. They're 23 and 24, excuse me, 23 and 24 on DVOA. The one thing we know about this game is that, like, what is the best thing in this game is a giant's defense line. Now, the Bears' offense a lot played really well with us to Bengals, but the Bengals are historically terrible, okay? And, I mean, look, the Bears won by a point, by a point to the Raiders and commanders,

and then won by five against the Bengals. That's four to last five games, including a loss of the Ravens. They beat the Saints by 14 or 12, but the Saints are not as good as the Giants. And the Bengals, they needed this historic comeback and just some crazy needs to happen. This to me feels like a fuel war or less game,

and I'm not on the Giants, man, and Raybon's on them too. I just made sure to double-checked. The Giants have come off, look, we talked about this stretch they would have this season, right? commanders cowboys chiefs chargers saints eagles broncos eagles 49ers it's a little bit a little bit lighter now with the bears i think this game is close i'm okay with giants but it's a good number we're not going to

get four it's not going to five probably if it does it happens but if anything matt this closed it at three and a half on sunday yeah i mean this touched three and a half earlier this has moved away from from the giants i think you know interesting i'm going to try to look at the splits here on who's betting what. But it just seems to me like the Giants are not a totally dead team. They're competing. The Bears last week coming off of just a miraculous win for, as you've said, like they've just had a bunch of those.

So it does feel like their luck could kind of come around. The four and a half, I do think, is worth moving them forward into consideration. That's a really good number. And, you know, the bear is just like, their karma's going to come around. They've just had too many weird, weird games this year. I'm trying to see who they play next. They go at Vikings, Steelers, Eagles, Packers. This could just be like a little bit of a letdown game.

So yeah, let's put them through. I feel like we actually are on the, we're on the same page this week. Maybe we're like, we're so down on ourselves that we're just sort of like we're letting our guard down. Maybe there's something to this. Maybe so. But we need some, well, we need some games

because the next couple of games we talk about are just not going to be wagered on. Yeah, this one we can't do. The Jaguars at the Texans, we don't know the status of C.J. Stroud. We can probably save time here. Currently, the Jags are road favorites with the assumption,

I assume that Davis Mills will start. Yeah, anything to add there? No. Okay. I'm saying. With Stroud playing, I would consider it. Yeah, but the line will move to like two and a half. Correct.

I would imagine. All right. Saints at Panthers. We are forbidden for betting on this game, but I am a little bit tempted, buddy. The Panthers are like five and a half to the saints who are dead. And I kind of feel like the Panthers for it. What's that?

What side are you on? The Panthers. The Panthers are like a fine team who beat bad teams and occasionally beat good teams as we saw last week. Obviously, they're at the peak of their value right now. but the Saints like Let me see some Let me see some here

What do the Saints do? Like what could How do they possibly make this a game? Like the Panthers just don't show up like if Rico Riego Daudel didn't practice today I do think that he I know you don't care about running backs But I do feel like he is so important to their identity If he were to not play I do feel like I would want to lay off of this But I mean what did the say how are the Saints going to stop this running games?

This feels like this feels like a case where like if we get to Saturday and they're like Regal Dattal's in the Panthers. are a much better play. Yeah. Maybe this goes in our on-deck circle. Maybe this is the one where we're like, this can be our six. They're just really bad as a favorite. The Panthers in the last four or five years.

They're really bad as a favorite, but they're like, they can take care of business against bad teams. Like, I do feel, I do feel like they can do that. But let's stick this on the on deck. We don't know enough. Okay. I think this can be when we swap in at five and a half. We won't take a better number than this.

We do have to have some integrity there, but we can say we can potentially put this one in. Fair enough, fair enough. Man, I can't imagine we have, we're going to take this one, but rounds at Jets, both off a by, Jets have no players left, and they're catching two and a half points. And if we were total sickos, I would try to make a Jets case, but like that's not how we dig out of our hole,

unless you think it is. So I made the case for Arcona Fox Sports, the Jets under three and a half wins be worth of play, Matt, after what happened the last couple of days? Because, you know, what's the mood going to be like when your team just sells off in the middle of the season? And their defense wasn't good, but they sold off two players that are impactful.

And I'm sure the rest of the team looks to those two guys as leaders on the team. But then you're stuck with Brice Hall who's upset. He's not trained. And Johnson's upset. He's not trained. And like, you just have these players that are not happy to be there. They're counting down their days until they leave. Bad quarterback situation as well, Matt.

I think there's a case the Jets are dead. Like, I think under three and a half wins is certainly a playable thing. If you missed out on any sort of win total for the Jets this season. Yeah, I took them at worst record. They were plus 500 on draftings yesterday. And that was like right before the trade deadline ended. And I was like, maybe they'll trade Garrett Wilson and get, get a little value here. I did not.

But I still think it's a decent bet. The other part of this, though, dude, is that Dylan Gabriel is a two and a half point road favorite against a professional football team off of a buy. There is that. And if Justin Fields can do anything with his feet, it's like, I don't know, but we're not taking this.

It's a good point. It's a good point. I mean, that is, I do feel like when I do my weekly picks pool, I'm going to look at this one on Sunday morning and be like, Dylan Gabriel laying points on the road? Like, what are we talking about? Do you want, I'm going to the story about your, a Picks pool. This is how, this is how it's going this year.

So buddy of mine, I do bear bets with Sammy P. He is a friend who's in a college contest, and he has to give a best bet per week, and it's like for worse, 50 points, okay? Okay. And all he does is go to chat GPT and puts in what is your favorite college football side of the week, and it's hit seven of eight weeks. Wow. That's crazy, actually.

It's coming to take our jobs. Our jobs as prognosticator gamblers. Okay, we're laying off of this disgusting game. Should we move to the 4 o'clock? Yes. Okay. Let's take a quick break, and then we will get to the 4 o'clocks and not have to talk about Jets and Browns ever again.

All right, we're back, and we get into the 4 o'clock games just announced that Colin Murray is on Injure Reserve. That means Jacoby Persexual. continues on as a quarterback of the Cardinals. They're at Seattle, Matt. And I would be okay laying six and a half of Seattle on this spot. Interesting. Yeah, I think it's interesting how much better the Cardinals are with Brissette.

Sometimes you see this where it's just like maybe it's a personality thing. Maybe it's just a following the script kind of thing. This is the ultimate, like, peak spot for Seattle, worse at home coming off of a monster blowout win and a nice trade acquisition that everyone loves. That scares me a little. The Cardinals have played everyone close this whole year. I said this last week in a reason not to take them for some reason, but they do. I don't know. I don't love that, but if you feel really strongly, I'd listen. I think that would be the side based off of just Arizona now going on the road,

sort of a colder, rainy climate. Seattle, I think, is, I think we know is very good team. And you're sort of like, if Arizona lost that game on Monday, what's this number, eight and a half? Probably. But I don't know how anyone could be higher on Seattle than they are right now. No, and that's certainly fair. But if Seattle wears those throwbacks again, they're winning that game. So, you know, we have to make sure that they run that back again.

I will say that the Cardinals defense has seemed to turn a little bit of a corner. Like every time I go into social media, it's like, here's another cut up of like Nolan Smith or like Will Johnson or somebody. Well, yeah, Nolan Smith played really, no one, uh, Walter Nolan. Yeah, Walter Nolan. Yeah. Yeah. He was incredible. He had, he had like a high quality sack on the first rep of the game of the season for him. Yeah, if the Cowboys left tackle. Um, so. Yeah. I, uh, yeah. I, they're, they should be better on defense throughout the season. That's Jonathan Gannon's calling, obviously. They have a lot of good personnel there, but I will leave in Seattle here.

It's not a favorite of mine. Yeah, let's pass on it because I think I might be on the other side. Okay. Which means that, you know, I've just, I've just cost us a win. Let's see if I think we're going to be on the same side here. The lions at my dead commanders, the lions are laying seven and a half. This has come down. The sharp side seems to be the commanders here.

I don't know why. Will you, will you entertain me on? on a Lions play here. Yeah, let's hear it. Well, the pitch is basically, dude, like, this commander's defense, people, like, are people watching it? Like, there, if the Bengals and the Cowboys weren't there,

this would be, like, we'd be talking about one of the worst defenses of all time, and it just got thinner. They lost Marchion Lattimore. They have no pass rush at all. And, like, the thing about Detroit is, this game, they had circled all offseason. Like the commanders went in there and hung 50 on them in the playoffs.

You know, they kind of rubbed it in their faces a little bit. They spent all season doing that. Brandon Anderson from the Action Network is another really good better. He points out, do you remember that year when the Lions lost to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, I think, where they had that two-point conversion, they threw it to the offensive linemen and it got like callback. They played the next year. They played Dallas and beat them 47 to 9. it's like they have the lions like to kind of get up for games like this

and this number has actually gone down and this offense for Washington like what are we talking about Debo's either hurt or you know he's playing through some kind of injury there's no McLaurin there's no Luke McCaffrey there's no running game there's Marcus Mariotto like what are we talking about here this is I think they're going to win by 20 maybe 50 like it could be just an absolute monsoon and they play in the lines played poor this past weekend too so Yeah, they're coming off of loss. Like, what, why back the commanders right now? Yeah, so, so many things you mentioned.

The Luke McCaffrey went in quick, quickly. So a couple of us were on his unders for the game this past weekend, and he did not, or I guess it was Sunday night, right? He didn't actually play an offensive snack that hurt the first part of the game, right? And they tried to void our wagers for under receiving props. Oh, interesting. A buddy might have they paid out the other right. Yeah.

No, well, no. He played. That counts as playing in the game. You don't have to play an offense. If you're on special teams, that counts. So we won the wager. We were under under for his receiving because that's unfortunately he played it, play, got hurt. That so pays out as under. So would you make of Daniels in the game 38, seven? Yeah, I was just going to ask you. I do have an opinion. I'll go first. I think we're going to be on the same side on this one, which is like they left him in. because they needed, they wanted to get some juice. And they wanted to sort of, they wanted, yeah, maybe, please make this point. This is going to be the better social. Explain to people why Jane Daniels, being in that game is not malpractice. Yeah.

Okay, so from the first, the first thing is this, right? Is that because the Broncos scored 33, fourth quarter points just a month ago and won a game, everyone believes they're going to come back and win a game. Whether or not they are, because we're not waiting that game, Matt. The thoughts in the back of your head. Let's get a touchdown, an onside kick, a fumble. It's insane. Then we're going to win the game, right?

But the mindset is that we have a chance to win because someone did it just two weeks ago or three weeks ago. So that's sort of the starting point, right? But more importantly to what you said, and I laugh with people all the time about this. I'll get text messages like the team is down 38 and nothing and kicks a field goal to go down 383. Why?

Why do that? It's for confidence, right? It's to feel like you've, had something you've accomplished something at the end of a drive and for the for the commanders who played so poorly in offense daniels is back off injury you want to end the game down 387 with a touchdown to feel good about something so when you watch film it's not just getting your ass kicked for 60 minutes i know that sounds odd to think that way but that does matter right like you if daniels was obviously healthy he'd play this week and wouldn't it be great to enter practice

at least knowing like we scored the final drive of the last game it's a mindset thing right just something it also teaches your team like we're gonna keep battling we're gonna keep playing and so i'm for it i said this i think i think i said this on on maybe i don't even talk about on tuesday on our show i did a different show like i'm i understand why dan quinn apologized he sort of had to apologize yeah and of course if if dan quinn would have known that he would have gotten hurt he wouldn't play them like come on but also too the amount of quarterback injury are not as high as we want them to be in the NFL. They're not as high as we think.

And they're not in his arm being mingled like it was, right? Now, people will say that Jane Daniels is injury prone. He hasn't been, but his size leads him to be thrown around like that. Like they're not throwing Herbert like that, right? They're not tackling him like that. I get that. But the fact is he's NFL starting quarterback. Your offense has struggled.

And they wanted to end the game with something positive. unfortunately didn't work that way. But I think Dan Quinn would make that move all the time. As apology, well, very thoughtful and I appreciate it. It's not really the way I think he feels about situation. He did it for a reason. So I'm for it. It didn't work out.

It really sucks for Washington and for Jane Daniels and Dan Quinn, but I get where he was coming from. 100% agree. I'll go quick because we've spent a lot of time on this. But like, you've said this to me before. Well, who else are you taking out? If you're taking out Daniels for concern of injury, like what about Sam Cosmy who just came back from an ACL tear he's he just got an extension he's a great right guard like do you want to protect him too like what about Laramie Tunsell franchise left tackled gave up a lot of picks for him like don't want to get him injured how about Debo Samuel your only healthy wide receiver like at some point like these guys got to play and injuries are part of football I think the thing with Daniels like I know you and Gabe talked about his size it is a real thing 100% but he's they the thing that they can't change his size he's obviously got

got the ability. The thing they have to change is the play style. He's just, he can't take the same amount of hits. Him and Lamar Jackson are roughly the same size. Lamar just doesn't get beat up the same way. And Daniels has to do that if he wants to be as good as he can be. Remember, this is the team he beat on the road in the playoffs, hung up 40 points plus, was unstoppable. The assumption that this Washington team made this year was that they had an MVP candidate a quarterback, which they do when he's healthy. So I hope he gets better. That injury was really bad,

but, like, I do think people were acting like he died. And people acted like it was this RG3 thing all over again. It's like, it's not. He had a really brutal injury to his non-throwing arm. It was really gruesome. Please stop sharing it on social media.

He's going to be okay. If he's healthy, he should play. Like, he needs to get better. I think even he would say that. Agreed. Okay. Moving on. Good substantive talk there.

I was looking forward to that one. Rams of 49ers, probably the game of the week. The 49ers are catching four and a half points at home. I mean, what are we doing here? It feels like an on-dex circle game, though, right? Like, we don't know who's playing for the Niners right now. Does it matter? Like, the quarterback, at least, does it matter?

Like, I kind of feel like they're the same team to matter. I almost feel like they're better with Jones. Like, I kind of feel like they're at the side of what. There's other injuries, though. Here's the only problem with the honors in the spot, Matt, is that the both. and Fred Warner injuries are so significant that their defense is just not good

right now. And the Rams probably can do what they want offensively for the entire 60 minutes. Like, who's impacting the end? And Williams now towards ACL, right? So you lose your young pass rusher, your best pass rusher, Fred Warner's out.

I just think, like, the Rams are going to do what they want offensively in this game. I don't know why they wouldn't. And they lost them, what, six weeks ago. Like, they're going to be embarrassed about that loss. That's my concern in this game. It's like, I think the Rams, and remember, too,

if Williams doesn't fumble that ball, the Rams probably win that game by seven at home on Thursday night. Said he fumbles. I was going back and win the game. That's the only problem, Matt, with, within the four honors here, is that I think the Rams are going to do what they want offensively in this game. Yeah, it's a bit of a, it's a curious number.

They clearly want Trumps like me to be like four and a half. with the 49ers. Like, don't they own the Rams? And they used to. And then last year, this got a little more even. It's 11 to 7, Shanahan versus McVeigh all time. So yeah, maybe, I don't know, I don't think the Rams are the side, but maybe this is just to stay away then because you're right.

Like the injuries haven't really bitten to the 49ers yet. So maybe it's just time to stay away. I agree with you on that for now. This can be on Deck Circle 1 as well. Yeah. I like that. To see what happens on, because it might,

again, more information comes out. We might feel a little differently about it. Sunday night football. Steelers charges. Okay. So the Steelers, Matt, have won two games

to see a guys in New England and the Colts forcing 11 turnovers. Like, I cannot believe we were on the wrong side of a Steelers voodoo. As soon as Jones fumbled for the first time on Sunday, I knew we were fun.

No. I knew we, That was the end of it. I just knew. I knew immediately. It was done. I have the charge of the right side here. I still don't buy the Steelers.

They can't push the ball down the field. Was what they did on Sunday defensively? Is that what they're going to be now? Or are they going to revert back to what they've been? But the Chargers do not have Joe Alt, and that really concerns me. And they had been such a different offense without him in the game. I don't think I can back the Chargers here,

but we're not surprising the Charger won this game, you know, 2313, you know, like just sort of a lower scoring game that control most of the game and the Steelers just wilt at the end. Yeah, going to be, what, 80% Steelers fans at SoFi. Oh, yeah, absolutely, yeah. PM, pardon my take, does their, like, their tiers every week. And, you know, the top tier is like juggernauts, you know, and it was like Indiana and, like, the Rams or something.

And then, yeah, that's big, that's big. Yeah, yeah, it's super funny. But the seventh tier, I think, was, like, Joe Waltz injured, chargers. It's like, how, like, my God, man, like, it's, I just, I can't wait for the Justin Herbert excuse machine to roll out again. But I think that what's, that what's concerning here is the Steelers show, like, when they can get pressure on your quarterback, and Herbert has been under siege at times this year, for whatever reason, including some injuries, I know, that he does get a little bit squirrely.

This just screams stay away to me. Like the Steelers coming off of a big win where everyone's back in on them. Feels like a really dicey spot, but I just don't trust the Chargers team at all. So I'm happy to lay out here. I don't either. By the way, the Big Cat Power Rankings every week

is my favorite thing on the internet. Then my favorite, not, I mean, there's many favorite things, but one of them is that someone will reply and be like, how can you put someone here? He just replies to the picture of the chart. Like here, this is why. The computer did. It's like, I don't know.

It's so great. There's like now nine different canons, which I don't really understand half of them. But it's like, it's like Jamie Lee Curtis is on there as well. You got to Sydney Sweeney on there. It's like, it's just so, it's just so, it's so good. Ass, mega ass, booty cheeks, like fun and frisky is one of the categories every week. It's so good. It's just so clever.

All right. Monday night football, Eagles, Packers. I'm going to be on the side that's not sharp in this one, Matt. I'm curious where you are. Lines two and a half for the Packers. Packers coming off of a brutal, embarrassing loss in a look-ahead spot. And the Eagles coming off of a buy and probably healthy for the most part with some new pieces. I'm curious what you, what side are you?

I think I'm on Philly here. I'm on Philly too. The Packers are not good. I don't know what what's the selling point for the Packers. They're the most uneven, quote, good team in the NFL. Like, they are not a team that is trustworthy. Like, here's their last, here's their last six games, you ready? Lost the Browns, tied the Cowboys, beat the Bengals and Joe Flacco's first game by nine,

were down the entire game against Arizona, came back and scored a touchdown late to win by four. They beat a Steelers team by 10. they lost the Panthers as 13 point favorites. That's their last six games. Eagles are fresh. They're off a buy. So they start making their push, right? They added some players the last couple of weeks.

They're going to be better on defense. Jordan Love, I just, I don't buy it, Matt. Like there's a lack of, the best way I put, I think, is what do you fear about the Packers offense right now? Yep. Or nothing, nothing whatsoever. I fear the Eagles offensive line in Saquoan Barkley, who sort of got back. on track last game.

I fear the Eagles just mentality as a team. I like Philly, man. It's a completely square play. It is what it is, but I like Philly. I love it. You talked me into it. I absolutely, I absolutely agree. We talked about Jordan Love earlier this season.

It's like when things are going well, when he's feeling good and they have all their options available to them, like anything's possible. I think the Tucker Kraft injury is a big one for them. Obviously, I'm not the first person to think that point. But Jordan Love, anytime he's under pressure, he seems to, he gets deer in headlights. And Eagles are top six, if I'm counting quickly, and just pressures against the quarterback this year. So, yeah, I'm in on this.

I think this is a very friendly number. And, you know, plus 110 on the money line. It's in a bad play either. So we have, we have four picks. I think we actually like that are yeses, man. I'm going to read the four picks out first. They're yeses. We're both on Tampa.

Yep. Okay. We love the giant. right? Yep. Detroit love and Philly yep feel good okay so now we need one more and the one more that looks like we have is we've got the Denver there's in football well though the on-deck circles are leaving by on deck unless we want to play the Panthers but it's Denver Atlanta dolphins I we can't bet on Atlanta in Berlin I can't allow us to do that that's out I don't trust Bo. Do you trust Bo Nix to lay nine and a half?

I actually think our on-deck circle might be like Miguel Rojas. He's got to come in the game. He's got to get a big hit for us. Yeah. I'm not laying with the dolphins either, dude. I'm not taking points of dolphins either. Seattle? We just go against the juggernaut of the Jacoby Brissette offense.

I don't know. I mean, what do you think? I'm looking at my lit. Why don't we put Seattle in? Because you like them. And then we have the option. I think we are committed to four. And then we have the option to do the on-deck circle

to replace Seattle with the current numbers of Carolina minus five and a half. Whereas the Rams are San Francisco, uh, or sorry, San Francisco plus four and a half potentially. No, you like Rams.

I don't look any side. But I like the Rams made a score like Team Total over, something like that. Yep. Okay. Seattle's in for now. Tampa, Giants, Detroit, Philly, Seattle. The first four I plus.

You can't... I love the first four. I'd take four and one. Dude, I take one and four. What are we talking about? Actually, they take two and three. Yeah. And it's...

It's... Oh, buddy. It's been bad. I'm not in the West Village today. though. I'm on the West Village today. Can I can I can I, now that we have, now that we're at the end of this show, very quickly. So, you know, Matt and I text about a lot of things. And, um, and politics is one of them. It's not, it's not about politics. So we're not going to talk. But, um, can I share the text you sent me yesterday that I was like, I was like, I was like, I was very confused about. So I'm in the middle of doing another show yesterday. And Matt, and Matt, and Matt texts me, I think we have a good night tonight and a tie starts to turn. And I was like, the NFL's not playing today. What is Matt talking about? For like 30 minutes, Matt, I try to figure out why this is related to gambling.

And it absolutely was not. But I laughed at how silly I was that I'm so focused on getting out of this streak that nothing around me actually made any sense. Yeah, fair enough. And I was taking off the voter roll call in North Carolina. Don't think I forgot about that, North Carolina. There's another podcast for that, but that did not appreciate showing up to vote yesterday and being like, you're listed as an active. Oh, interesting, an active.

Very interesting. Very interesting, sir. I made myself active. Well, I guess I have to check back in 10 days. I've never done provisional before. I've checked back in 10 days to make sure that my ballot counted. Well, dude, Godspeed. This is.

I can't imagine calling the Board of Elections. dealing with that mess. I'm sure they're afraid-eyed and pushy-tailed every day. I hope that I'm active moving forward. We're active on getting some wins this week. We're active on betting on with our partners at Draft Kings and college quickly, like Indiana, USC to cover, West Virginia to cover, and UCLA. I think I mentioned UCLA, USC, Indiana, and West Virginia.

very quick on college. I've been bad college with all. I've been 57% for five years now. I'm below 500. Just the way it is, bad year, Matt, but we'll work a way out of it. And we'll talk to you guys on Tuesday. Take care, everybody.

Everybody.