Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Kansas City's Concern, Bill Belichick's Success & Matt Nagy's Prerogative

Episode Date: October 29, 2019

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Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you is brought to you by game time. Your new go-to app for the best deals on last minute tickets. Did you know NFL ticket prices tend to drop right before the game starts? Game time tracks prices in real time from thousands of trusted sellers and shows you all the best last minute deals with prices up to 60% off. You can even see the seat photos from every section of where you want to sit for your favorite game. More than 12 million fans have downloaded the game time app and discovered

the fastest, easiest way to get into the game. So head to the app store or play store. Now download game time and score awesome deals on last minute tickets. Pretty amazing. 300 wins is a pretty spectacular. He's, uh, you know, best coach of all time,

and it's a privilege to play for him. Hard-earned, well-deserved, and only better than 300 is 301. So we'll be back at it this week. From The Athletic, I'm Jeff Schwartz. Kansas City is clearly missing Pat Mahomes. Matt Nagy has no regrets. And we'll take a final look at who should be traded today.

It's Tuesday, October 29th. And this is Jeff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. A fantastic weekend of football as usual. I love a great weekend of NFL and college football. Welcome in on a Tuesday. Lots going on in the National Football League. As usual, Gabe Goodwin, producer extraordinaire, will fire some takes at me. And Gabe did a great job last week because we got multiple tweets at Jeff Schwartz about

Gabe being, is annoying the right word, Gabe? Like, bad takes? Yeah. People were upset with you. I think they were upset with the logic i used the passion with which i delivered it not quite understanding that i am simply channeling them back to you i am the internet voiced into your ear holes that's what i represent here so if you want to listen to a crappier podcast you can get my full true takes but i am just channeling the other people out

there on the internet. All right. So you have one to start with. I think we're going to disagree here, but go ahead, sir. All right. So, Jeff, I hate to say it. The flashing red panic lights are going off in Kansas City like never before. It briefly looked like Patrick Mahomes was going to play on Sunday versus the Packers. Obviously, they made the smart choice and sat him, let him rest that knee. It probably wouldn't have mattered. Rodgers

was insane. Packers won 31-24. Amazing game by Rodgers. So now they're 5-3, the Chiefs. They've lost 3-4. Mahomes has a quote-unquote outside chance of playing this week against the Vikings. I'm just going to say it. That's not good enough. This is a must-win game. Whatever the hell shape his knee is in, he's got to go out there. If he could have played last week, he has to play this week. They cannot lose this game.

So many things to unpack here. One, look, Matt Moore did an outstanding job considering where he is at right now in his career. He was out of the NFL all of 2018. All last season he was coaching back home at Hart High School. And now he was signed not even in training camp. At the end of training camp, he was signed to come be a Kansas City Chief. He has not taken a rep with the first team.

He did not take a rep with the first team until this week. The way practice works, let's say there's four periods of practice, eight plays a period. As the season goes on, it gets seven plays, six plays, it gets smaller and smaller. Because there's not a lot of reps of practice, the one quarterback takes all the reps. Now, you might rotate in the backup for like one rep maybe,

or you might have a couple of backup wide receivers in the game. You rotate a couple of offensive linemen at practice. The quarterback mostly is taking all those reps. He's for sure taking all of them and all the walk-throughs we have throughout the day. There's not a lot of reps, so you have to take all of them if you're the starter. So Matt Moore hadn't taken any reps with the ones, and they mentioned that. Travis Kelsey said after the Broncos game, I had not even worked with Matt yet. So Matt comes in this game on Sunday night, and look, he was admirable.

He started slow, finished 24-36, 267 yards, two touchdowns. Really good on third down as well. In general, the Chiefs on third down were 50%. So pretty impressive there to move the ball in that manner. Excuse me, they were sixth for 11, my bad. So over 50% on third down. And they moved the ball fine offensively. You're not going to have Pat Mahomes production.

But considering where they thought they'd be in this game, especially with the Packers defense that is pretty good, I would say enough is done on offense. The problem is defensively. This is my issue going into the game is defensively too many lapses, right? 31 points by the Packers, a long touchdown on a screen pass. Now, Aaron Rodgers made some amazing plays. He's going to make those every single week.

But the second half of that game, no pressure by the Chiefs, as there was in the first half. And the defense now, down both their two best pass rushers, down a cornerback, down a middle linebacker in the middle of the game. They're down a bunch of guys. The defense is more the issue than is the offense and mahomes coming back doesn't help the defense be any better and the question becomes if you look at the afc west you're to have a two-game lead on the raiders

you've already beaten now you have to play them again but essentially it's a three-game lead on them it's one game in the loss column but two in the win column so we'll call it one and a half uh nonetheless you have a good lead on that on the raiders the goal two in the win column. So we'll call it one and a half. Nonetheless, you have a good lead on the Raiders. The goal is to now win the division, not get home field advantage. You're not getting home field advantage anymore. The Patriots now are three games ahead of you in the loss column.

You're not getting that. So the goal should be winning the AFC West, and you need Mahomes to be healthy to do that. And I'm not even sure you beat the Vikings this week with a healthy Mahomes. So I would rest him until you play the Titans in two weeks, make sure he's 100% healthy, and win the games that you know you have to win. The Titans game, the Chargers game, go into a bye, and you're what?

Six, seven, and four? That's good enough to win the AFC West if you're on that path. Okay, that's a really defeatist kind of approach, though. This is supposed to be the best team in football. No, it's not. See. Well, I mean, that's what we were led to believe. No, see, I was never.

I picked the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. So I know that people think that. I was not as high on them as other people were, which is good. But continue, Gabe. Go ahead. Well, okay. So you mentioned home field advantage in the playoffs no longer being the goal. But what about a bye, period?

field advantage in the playoffs now no longer being the goal but what about a buy period if we're talking about a quarterback who needs rest that i mean the buy is no no sure thing now i mean you're gonna need to be the second best team in the afc record wise to guarantee you're sitting on you know the wild card weekend i don't know that that's a sure thing any longer there's a lot of losses ahead for them is what i'm saying this is a week you need to win right but what if you but what if pat mahomes gets hurt again this week and he's lost for the season or lost for another month? Are you sacrificing one win now for the possibility that you missed him the rest of the season? Or would you rather him wait one more week, get healthy, and then you know you will beat with a 75% Pat Mahomes, a Titans team and a poor Chargers team, and then you get a bye week?

75% Pat Mahomes, a Titans team and a poor Chargers team, and then you get a bye week. I suppose, but I mean, I don't – this was meant to be a three- to five-week injury. Miraculously, six days later, we're hearing rumors he could play. Now it's been – That's why. I think they've not mismanaged the wrong word to use there, but I think they put expectations way too high

by putting him at practice this week. He couldn't even run. He couldn't even move. I think he should have been out there. It's not my call, obviously. But yes, floating these things out there is not helping this because then there's speculation that he really is close to playing when I don't think he really is.

So is your basic point, though, that Matt Moore, who hadn't had any first-team reps really to speak of until this week, now has had all the first-team reps and is good enough to keep you in the game if your defense suddenly gets better he's good enough that you might steal the game against vikings but you don't need to win against the vikings my hearing i'm saying if if if the if the risk reward here right so let's say you pipe have my homes this week he's not 100 healthy first of all he has not been good this year as good i should say when he's not been 100

healthy even like if he's 75 healthy i think he'll be okay but he's missed a lot of throws as he's been more beat up this year because he couldn't move remember he's coming back from an ankle injury too he's got two things to worry about right now and let's say he's not very mobile in this game he's not very good there's a chance you lose this game anyways and a chance he re-hurts he re-injures himself especially if if Eric Fisher left tackle is not playing this week against a good pass rush and the left guard. And, by the way, the right guard got hurt in this game as well. So let's say you're down three offensive linemen.

You put Pat Mahomes in this game, gets a good Vikings defense, and he re-injures himself. Now you're taking him out of two games, the following two games, that you know you can win if Pat Mahomes is in that game, at Tennessee and really in Mexico, but they're playing the Chargers. You're now removing him from those games you know you can win, even the rest of the season. You have the Raiders after a bye.

Andy Reid is like 16-2 after a bye. They'll win that game, especially at home. They're at the Patriots. They'll probably lose that game. And then they finish with the Broncos, Bears, and Chargers. They should win those three games. But I would say that having a healthy Pat Mahomes is more important in the last six games of the year, seven games a year,

than it is to just beat the Vikings this weekend. Okay. I buy all of that, and I would just like to give Pat Mahomes a weekend off in early January. And your plan doesn't guarantee that. Yeah, it doesn't guarantee that. But, again, if the Chiefs have to play week one in the playoffs, they're going to get like the Bills, right?

I'm not worried about the Chiefs being the Bills. Okay. Then, you know, they have to play the Patriots at some point. They just play them a week earlier than they would otherwise. I mean, you know, you have to go through New England at some point, right? I think that's right. And I think I'll use that as our segue to get to those Patriots because they're 8-0. Their defense is the greatest football unit in the history of football.

Argument over. Everyone has decided the Internet has come down on this one. The Patriots are the best team ever. They're on pace is because the genius himself, Bill Belichick, the hoodie, has been play calling on defense himself the whole time. That's it. That's what it is, everyone. It's all Bill Belichick's genius. Or, I don't know, after Big Ben week one, they've played Ryan Fitzpatrick, Luke Falk, Josh Allen, Colt McCoy, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, and Baker freaking Mayfield.

They have no record against anyone who can play quarterback healthy in this league. What's coming? Lamar, Wentz, Dak, Deshaun, Mahomes if he's healthy. It's going to completely flip-flop. Can we all just please stop with the greatest defense of all time talk? No, no, no, buddy. They're going to shut down your boy Lamar Jackson this weekend. You sound like a very salty Jets fan right here.

I am. Aaron Schatz, who runs Football Outsiders, who we love, right? DVOA, defense-adjusted stats, adjusted for schedule, are something that we love to use, right? Well, he has them through whatever week eight this is, I believe, is the Patriots' best defense of all time. Best defense of all time. Now, you're right.

They're going to come back to earth a little bit, playing better offenses coming up, but they are elite. They've allowed, I believe, two passing touchdowns all year and have picked off 17 or 18 passes. They're an elite-level defense. And yes, they got gashed a little bit against baker mayfield nick chubb fumbled that that obviously didn't help uh the run defense looked a little bit suspect er in this game but dude they they're they're again they are an elite level defense i

cannot say this enough where they are going ahead and they're taking the souls of other teams remember this the bills by the way right Who we agree have a top defense. Do you agree with that? The Bills are good defense this year? They seem like a better than average defense. They allowed 31 points to the Eagles at home this weekend. Like, good defenses have games where they don't play well. The Patriots have not had that at all this season.

They're not even allowing garbage time touchdowns. They're allowing nothing touchdowns. They allow no touchdowns ever. Okay, but so that's what happens if you try for four quarters against some of the worst quarterbacks in NFL history. But that's part of it, though, is they play all game, dude. Oh, wow! A lot of defenses don't.

A lot of people don't do that. They're locked in all game. That means they're locked in the beginning of the game and the end of the game. That's important. But, okay, fine. What you're describing is that professional football players are professional the one day of we of work they have each week and that makes them all time they're allowing 15 conversion rate on third down oh okay i i got it i i've watched the

quarterbacks they've played against i've never seen them convert on third down against any defense where why is this mythology that bill belichick suddenly calls defensive plays like well i don't i don't think i think that's i think that that that's a that mythology i think is a little bit misleading i think that they've come to a point where they have um a lot of parts that are interchangeable, and so their defense is able to adapt. It's not really, I don't think, a Bill Belichick calling things. I do think he's more involved hands-on Monday through Saturday as a defensive coach than he's been in a couple years now.

But I think it's more the fact that they just have a scheme that is very adaptable. So we saw the Jets game, a lot of zero pressure we saw baker mayfield not as much zero pressure uh they're gonna do they're gonna come after lamar jackson this weekend i'm telling you right now if you think the patriots haven't been studying this offense for five months now you're out you're out of your mind yeah you know why they've been able to because they haven't had to study a single damn quarterback they've played against in weeks so they have probably you're probably right since j quarterback they've played against in weeks. So they have probably, you're probably right.

Since June, they've been thinking about Lamar Jackson. So what happens this weekend when the Patriots go into Baltimore and shut down that offense? What are you going to say then? Well, on Tuesday, we'll have a discussion about that. I just think that the green rooms at ESPN, Fox, all these places I worked and love, I think everyone needs to just take a chill here and stop with the Bill Belichick is a genius because this defense is something.

I get it. He's a genius anyways. Yes, he is. We already established that. Eight games this year against crap quarterbacks doesn't prove anything new about him. But it just doesn't. Here's, so this is one thing

that I think is important to talk about. This is, I think, why people have been so impressed with this defense. If you go back to the Super Bowl teams of the early 2000s, right? Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork. I think Vince was there just for one, but Ted Washington was there for part of it, right? Bruschi, Vrabel, Ty Law, Rodney Harrison, right? All these All-Pro, Pro Bowl-level guys guys or Hall of Fame level guys that are playing there. They have one pro bowler right now, Stephon Gilmore.

That's it. So they're doing all of this without the talent they've had previously. They're just a bunch of dudes, man. Now, a lot of them are above average, of course, right? But they're not like pro bowl caliber. They're not all pro guys. They're not Hall of Fame level guys. Maybe Stephon Gilmore plays under 10 years and he's in that category.

But they're playing like this without having dudes. There's plenty of teams with better guys that aren't playing as well as the Patriots are. All right. Well, then let me ask you this because this is the obvious segue. Those same people who are spending their time on the networks talking about how Bill Belichick calling defensive plays has been some difference maker. Those are the same people who will tell you, but, oh, but the Colts can take them down.

Well, this is all I keep hearing is there's only one AFC team that has a chance against Patriots. It's the Colts. No, it's not. They're going to eat Jacoby Brissett alive in a playoff game. So why does everyone think the Colts? Because they have a pretty good coach. What is going on here?

So I wrote about this heading into this week. And these numbers have not been revised yet. But they were 19th in DVOA as a team heading into this weekend's game against Denver. And they played very terribly. And they won that game in a last-second kick. this weekend's game against Denver, and they played very terribly, right? And they won that game in a last-second kick. So when I wrote last week that the Colts were the fourth-best team,

essentially, in the AFC, right, Patriots, Chiefs, Texans, Colts, I said that because their numbers aren't as good as everyone else's. They're winning games. Credit them for winning games, but they're not doing it very pretty. For example, they're 22nd right now in the NFL in yards per play on offense. on offense that's not good like that's not a team in my mind that you think hey they're a team that's going to win the championship or pretend with the patriots remember they have to go to foxborough to win a playoff game they're 22nd on defense and yards per play are you telling me that that team right now that's in the 20s and yards per play

is going to go into Foxborough and beat them? The Patriots lost a home playoff game like 10 years. And when they have lost those games, Jets and Ravens, it was because they had outstanding defenses. They don't have that right now. And the Patriots, mind you, should get better on offense. Sanu is going to get used to this offense. Nikhil Harry, I believe the wide receiver is coming back very soon. They're top pick in the draft from Arizona State. They're going to keep

getting better on offense, which is a little bit behind their defense, obviously. The Colts are not the team to do that. There's one team. It's the Chiefs. If Mahomes is healthy, that's the team that can do it. The Texans can't do it yet. The Chiefs, the only team, Kansas City. Okay, well, the hot pick is to talk about the Colts and their defense and their coach. I had Colts fans bragging to me they beat the Broncos 15-13. Hey, Schwartz, look, we're better than you think. We barely beat a team that's 2-6 and training our best players away. Yeah, every one of their wins, by the way, is a single-score win.

If you're a better better the Colts make you sweat man I know I had them this week um think about that the Colts are 22nd and yards per play on defense and 22nd 23rd yards of playing offense and people are like they're gonna beat the Patriots in Foxborough in a playoff game well okay so it sounds like from this segment which went longer than I expected that we're just gonna kiss the Patriots into the Super Bowl unless Patrick Mahomes goes crazy at some point in the playoffs, which won't be, by the way, won't be the AFC championship game because they don't care about that.

They're going to beat them sometime earlier in the playoffs. Well, that's their best chance, yes. Okay, fine. So we're just going to give them the Super Bowl and see if there's anyone in the NFC that can compete with them. Fair enough. Well, one team we know will not be competing with them from the NFC is the Bears. This one's a little confusing.

Okay, so the Bears lost on a missed field goal versus the Chargers on Sunday, right? That part, not debatable. Head coach Matt Nagy's strategy leading up to run the ball to shorten the field goal try. All right, so it was a 40-something yard field goal try after he took the knee. It could have been a 30-something yard field goal try if he gained a few yards on first down. So with four seconds left, dude misses the field goal, and everyone immediately is ready to go, wait, what the hell was with the knee he goes to the presser here's what happens no thought of throwing it there either throw the football yeah i'm just to try to get a little closer um throw the football right then and there what happens if you take a sack or there's a fumble

lose the game that's right yeah exactly so no there was zero thought of that. That's the, I'll just be brutally clear. Zero thought of throwing the football, zero thought of running the football. You understand me? That's exactly what it was. So it's as simple as that. Okay. So last year's coach of the year is very confident in his decision. The rest of the internet thinks he's a moron. Explain this one this one jeff well it's clear that there's no faith in mr bisky right in these statements because you had plenty of time to take a shot down the field you just could have thrown a fade route a go route could have hit him with a play action pass you could have because i believe they still have time out left they had a time out um

you could have run the ball you were averaging four yards to carry a little over four yards to carry you run the ball well um as many as you could have done here you also lost a couple yards on the kneel instead of just running the ball and maybe gaining a couple yards right there's many ways to do this this is him saying i don't trust mitchell trabisky to go ahead and win us this game because Because we see lots of times, right? 40 seconds left, timeout. In the NFL, that's a lot of time. That's two or three plays worth. Quarterback takes a snap, drops back, and throws the ball high and far down the sidelines. And your right receiver makes a play, right?

We see it all the time happen. Move up a little bit of field goal range. You throw a slam. There's many things you can do to move up and get your kicker, who has been better this year than last year, obviously a new kicker, but nonetheless, you've had those struggles the last couple of years. It's saying, I do not trust Trubisky to do anything else. I've taken the and trust our kicker to make it now.

You have to make the kick, right? I mean, like, we understand that. I mean, let's not absolve the missed kick here by Pinheiro. He's got to make the kick, right? I mean, we understand that. I mean, let's not absolve the missed kick here by Pinheiro. He's got to make this kick. He's an NFL kicker. There's no wind in this game, and it was a kick he's got to make. Within his range, got to make it. But Nagin does not trust Trubisky at all.

That's a problem, and there's nothing they can do this year to fix that problem. I don't think they're going to trade anybody. I don't know if anyone's going to trade a quarterback to them anyways. Even then, it's going to take weeks to get ready. This comes down to not trusting Trubisky. And look, I don't know if the salty answer is going to help Matt Nagy this week as far as the media and the media attacking him. I don't know if his players don't believe in Trubisky.

I'm not sure they've lost faith in Nagy too. But the Chargers had 11 first downs in this game, were 20% on third down and won the game with 231 yards. That's atrocious, Bears. It was. But so this guy won coach the year last year. And we were all told that the Bears were contenders this year and they started red hot. So this has flipped on the dude maggie really quickly so is there anything in his logic that makes any sense at all because i've listened to him like is there anything redeeming

in this no no it doesn't because it comes down to not trusting trubisky right i mean that's why he he is in this mindset of hey we cannot make mistakes i mean how many times do we see in that situation a fumble happen that takes you out of field goal range? Almost never. Almost never. How often do we see in this situation if they were to just throw a fade that they'd be intercepted? I don't usually see that.

Okay. How often even just, hey, let's run the ball and try to get three yards? How often is there a fumble or really like a loss of many yards? Almost never, right? Yeah. I mean, maybe no gain okay minus one so he had all these options to continue to move the ball down the field but he played not

to lose he doesn't trust his quarterback and you talk about coach of the year interesting looking on the nfl hey in this season you know we we talked about matt nagy sean mcveigh oh freddie kitchens the greatest new offensive mind of all time. How's that going for you? That awful team that had, what, 13 penalties against New England. They called, Gabe, it was 4th and 11, and they wanted to run a play. They had one timeout left.

Instead of taking that timeout, they sent the punt team out and told the gutter to jump off sides to make it a fourth and 16. How stupid is that? That's a stupid. That's a fireable offense right now. All right. But did you just somehow pivot from Matt Nagy? No, I'm going to get back.

I'm going to get back. All time brain fart to dumping on Freddie. I'm going to get. Yeah, I'm going to get back to my point, though. I just want to make that. I just like the total shrapnel that Kitchens is taking here from you. Go ahead. We talked about all these guys, right?

Nagy, Kitchens, Sean McVay as being the new offensive minds. I want to give a shout-out really quick to the old offensive minds. Andy Reid with Matt Moore. Sean Payne with Teddy Bridgewater. And an up-and-coming guy, Kyle Shanahan, dude. Kyle Shanahan's offense is out of this freaking world. The screens, the running game, the passing game, it's unbelievable to watch.

It's so much fun to watch. Those three are outpacing all these other guys because they're able to make adjustments. The Niners are down two offensive tackles and their fullback. It's a huge part of their game. No complaining, nothing. Matt Moore hasn't played in a year and a half. No complaining. Scored 24 points. Moved the offense up and down the field had a chance to win naggy you gotta find a way to get the offense going you gotta find a way to make trubisky

better maybe he just is that bad i don't know you gotta do something man and so i don't know if he's i don't think he's a genius i never thought that last year he did well last year but i think most of us said last year even. Trubisky, I picked the Bears to miss the playoffs this year for that exact reason. I wasn't sold on him. So let's slow back with the genius talk, and let's appreciate some of the old heads right now. Yeah, well, also, let's just relax on even knowing the basics of strategy in football or doing any of the math. Well, that's my job to know,

but yes, I didn't understand how he missed this badly and figured I must be misunderstanding something like this is so stupid by a head coach in the NFL that clearly I am the moron, but the more I look into it, no, no, he just blew it.

That's all there is to that. Remember again, let's not absolve the kicker here. The kicker blew this as well. That's right. Like I know that, you know, we don't't have this discussion obviously if they win this game but the kicker also screwed up here yeah well we should probably get rid of kickers but that's a different conversation i think i think we're we're moving that direction all right fair enough well one thing you won't hear about today uh or all week is some you know blockbuster

trade involving a kicker because Because nobody cares about kickers. Well, okay. But today is the trade deadline, which is, you know, in football not always as big a deal as baseball, let's say. But the Jets and Giants have already made a trade. Leonard Williams goes to the Giants for a third and a fifth. Kenyon Drake going from Miami to Arizona for a conditional sixth round pick. If you want to speculate, I'll give you a few to chew on.

Melvin Gordon should be traded to the Lions, according to the internet. AJ Green could be in Green Bay or New England. Who knows? They both want a receiver. Patrick Peterson, he'd help the Eagles secondary. These are all things people are saying. Jeff, teams should give up picks for players more often. You don't know what you're going to get in the draft.

If there's a proven player out there, go get him. That's the take. I don't know why this is anything less than obvious for people. Look, I think there's some truth to this, especially if you're a contender. Especially if you're a contender, right? You have small windows to win, and we've seen Howie Roseman, the Eagles GM, be aggressive.

We've seen Bill Belichick, obviously, for Sanu be aggressive as well. So, yes, if you can win this year, you think you can, whether you're the Packers or you want to get yourself a wide receiver. Look, the Patriots, in my opinion, and you mentioned kicker. I could totally see them going ahead and training for kicker. They don't trust Nugent, who's ever kicking right now. He didn't kick very well in the game. They don't trust him to do it. They went for a fourther. They don't trust Nugent, who's ever kicking right now. He didn't kick very well in the game. They don't trust him to do it.

They went for a fourth down more than usual. Now, maybe that's Bill saying, hey, you know, analytics show they're going for a fourth down. I think it's just he doesn't trust his kicker. They need a tight end as well. They need to win their wide receiver. I think they're going to be active as we approach today's trade deadline. Trent Williams, the Redskins left tackle,

who is now the Joe Thomas of trade deadlines where every year he may or may not be traded. I could see him on the move as well. You mentioned A.J. Green. It feels like a lot of capital to get him to leave as well. But we have a lot of teams that need some pieces here and there. Are they going to trade? I don't know.

Everyone talks about quarterbacks. I don't see any quarterbacks really on the move right now. But then we'll see a couple more guys we saw some big ones last week we'll see teams try to shore up certain you know parts of their team as we move till uh till today or you know you might hear this at the end of the trade deadline and be interesting to see you know where we end up with uh with who's been traded but why the hesitancy to give up mid-round picks like what why well these guys we're talking about are not mid-round pick guys, right? Well, what did the Jets get back for Leonard Williams?

Yeah, but he's not an impact player. What? The Patriots don't need a Leonard Williams. I don't care about the Patriots. They don't need anyone, okay? And they don't even need a stupid kicker. They're never going to kick a field goal this whole season. But who are you?

So who's who? We just mentioned A.J. Green. Yeah. We mentioned Melvin Gordon. Pat Peterson. Melvin Gordon, who will be a low-round pick. goal this whole season but who are you so who's who we just mentioned aj green yeah we mentioned melvin gordon pat peterson melvin gordon who will be a low round pick um we mentioned what a possible tight end like oj howard or the kid from atlanta maybe going to new england i mean those guys are lower round picks but all these agent green is going to require a first round pick probably but okay so let's let's just go down that road for a second why not give up a first round pick for a great wide receiver that will help your team with this chance that you have to win a super bowl which team pick a team

that thinks they're contending for a super bowl what does it matter if they lose a first second or third round pick if they can get a guy who gives them a real chance to win why do people care about picks so much they're wrong like half the time at least i i think i look i i'm i'm kind of with you though on a lot of this where i think that people view picks as like way too valuable um and i think that that it's not they're not as valuable as as we think but a lot of teams like to hoard them anyways so i'm more on your side here i think it's it's worth to go ahead and trade some of these picks well yeah i mean because the team that we're talking about earlier that has me all fired up they don't care

a damn for picks the patriots like that they've never had a whole lot of stockpile of picks and whenever they have them they do trade them to get the players they need that year to make them better that year. I mean, that's just how good teams operate. So why are we spending all our time this week talking about, oh, man, he'd make such a difference, but I don't think we should give that pick up. Give up the pick. Who cares? Who cares? I think you're looking at the other side, too, where the Bengals, you know, the Patriots' first-round pick is going to be 32.

Do they want, you know, do they think that's enough value for A.J. Green? I mean, that's part of this, too. It goes two ways. Now, you could argue to the Bengals, it doesn't matter, right? Whatever you can get for him, you'll take. But I think this is also part of it as well, is the teams, you know, the other way around

where teams are looking at value and don't think the value's there for a player like A.J. Green. All right, well, I mean, it's something. I always say, you know, better get a percentage of the whole than 100 percent of nothing. So, you know, you can sit around talking about AJ Green's worth more than that and then still have him on your own 16 team doing nothing. Or you could try to get something for him. It just seems like the pick sort of hoarding is silly for bad teams.

You're not going to be able to convert them into winning players very often. Statistically speaking, they're not worth as much as people think that that's my point. And I think the internet is with me on this long day at work, tough day at school, still stuck at the office, choose yourself to the meal you deserve and have your favorite restaurants come to you with DoorDash. The other day I was hungry. I was working a bunch. I didn't want to eat food I had at home. I wanted to get a treat for myself. I ended up doing that using DoorDash. It connects you to your favorite

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We're going to play Move the Line. This is where I make some over-unders up. Some of them are real, but mostly they're not. I'm going to start with this one. Remaining games, Joe Flacco will start as a Bronco. I'm setting the over-under at.5 games. He's not going to play this week with a supposed neck injury, but I think the injury was run in his mouth in a press conference

questioning his coach. Okay, so I went out there yesterday and said that this was the case, right, that he hurt himself at the press conference. I've been told it actually is fairly serious, but I will say this. I do not think he would have been benched on Monday, not benched, announced out on Monday if he had not made these comments on Sunday. I think they would have waited the rest of the week to see whether or not he would be able to find a way to play this.

Because, look, they're not starting Drew Locke, right? They're starting an Allen kid. Who knows? You know, like, whatever. Like kid who knows you know like whatever like who know you know right so um i think that if he had not spoken in the way he had they would have found a way to maybe play him this week right see how his neck feels um but i think in the end he plays he's done i would say under i think drew lock comes back it's his job okay so you i mean you didn't do you think there's this is reparable with him and fangio like because just for people who don't maybe know he really blatantly

questioned play calling and kind of said like what are we being conservative for we have nothing to lose we're not a good team we should go for it essentially and then the next thing we hear about him is he's sitting for several weeks yeah i think I think that I think Fancho probably had enough of it. All right. So, well, apparently the injury is not career threatening, so we could see Flacco on a field. It just doesn't seem like it's going to be the Broncos anytime soon. All right, let's move along. Nick Bosa.

I want to know MVP finish. Not rookie of the year, not defense player. MVP finish over under 2.5. Meaning, could he crack the top three of the MVP finish? Can you talk about the three of the MVP finish? I would say no. Okay. I think there's a good chance he wins rookie of the year, though.

I think he's already won that. I think they gave him that. That's happening. There's just an offensive defense rookie of the year. He can win defensive player of the year and rookie of the year. He could get both those. I think he could get both of those, yes. You just don't want to give an MVP consideration.

I just think we're not going to get no. I mean, look, if Christian McCaffrey is not getting many MVP votes, he's not either. get no i mean look if if christian mccaffrey's not getting many mvp votes he's not either i mean if you look at rogers wilson um and uh rogers wilson watson lamar jackson he's they're all going to be ahead of him even lamar interesting i is there a more valuable player on the 49ers who are now looking like the only team that could rival the Patriots. Is there anyone else on that team as valuable as him? So is he the MVP of the best team? All right, fine.

But as players go, is he the MVP of the best team in the NFC? I mean, I still think Jimmy Garoppolo is supremely valuable to that team. I don't know why. I know people are kind of like, I don't know about him, but I think he's still supremely valuable. All right. Well, it seems like Bosa is the reason they're winning these games i mean unreal stuff he looks like jj watt of a few years ago speaking of jj watt games jj watt plays next season 0.5 over under yeah i think he's done

really yeah i i just i think i think i think he's the texans are going to be done with him. He's been injured every year now, right, for the last many years now. And I think we're at an age now where I don't know if guys – I don't know if he's going to continue to play. I know it sounds crazy because we never – everyone thinks we're in this new generation now where everyone's going to retire early. And maybe I'm totally wrong on this, but he's played a lot of games. He's been hurt in 16, 17, and now in 19.

He played all 16 games last year. Wasn't quite the same player. But also, he's not the same player anymore. Because what made J.J. Watt great, I know you disagree on J.J. Watt's greatness, and we'll talk about that in just a second, is that it was the difference in two things. One is that he often went off script so his offensive lineman you know you're you're looking at the defense right you see okay here comes the pressure jj watt's supposed to cross my face and you know he's supposed to go with the pressure

he doesn't do that he often freelances does what he wants aaron donald's the same thing but he's so good he's able to get back in his gap and make the play because he can mess with offensive lineman and then secondly which i think he does better than Aaron Donald does, this is what made him so great, is his finish between getting off the offensive lineman and sacking the quarterback or hitting the running back, that burst in that moment was better than anyone else I think I've ever seen. He would be able to beat a right tackle,

and a lot of guys will lunge for a quarterback, will try to beat a right tackle. And a lot of guys, you know, we'll lunch for a quarterback. We'll try to get over his ability to go from, I just beat a guy to fly and slam the quarterback for a sack. That little burst right there, in my opinion, made him a difference maker. I don't, I know you think he's overrated.

I don't think he is at all. Well, let me clarify, obviously for all the reasons you just described when he's playing it would be ridiculous to call him overrated he's amazing the problem is ever since he burst onto the scene you can't count on him finishing a season so i'm not you know i'm not questioning his toughness i'm none of that stuff well okay so like half his career basically has ended with a season ending surgery. I just think it's fair to ask the question, is he, quote unquote, injury prone or is he just sort of a little bit overrated because he can't stay on the field? And he kind of makes it hard for his team to build around a guy who might not be out there.

I mean, they let go of Jadavion Clowney, whatever we may think of him, but they figured, alright, well we kind of don't need him as well, but now, halfway through the season when they should be one of the top teams in the AFC, they're losing their best player again. Like, it's not a knock on J.J. Watt, it's just the reality that if he can't be

on the field, he isn't as good as everyone wants him to be. So call that overrated if you want. That's definitely fair if you want to say that he's injury prone sure i don't think he's overrated though i think he is i think he's just injury prone well okay but i i think this comes back to people like eli right so all i hear is oh this stat that's that he's an average quarterback he got lucky in the super bowls and i'm no big eli supporter but I think the stat that's most telling for Eli is 210 straight starts like the Giants did not have to worry about their quarterback position for over a decade most teams like are tearing through quarterbacks they're wasting picks they're

signing free agents for way too much money the Giants just said okay we've got our guy and he was out there every single game for a decade the fact that this dude Watt just can't be on the field anymore ever I I think that counts against him I really do I mean I get it he had this amazing start to a career and he looks awesome when he's healthy but he hasn't been healthy in years. I get what you're saying. I just think that... I still think he's an elite-level player and probably a Hall of Fame runner. I know what you're saying, though, and I get that a lot of fans feel that way,

but as someone who was very hurt all of my career, I'm a little sensitive toward this topic. I understand, and I figured you would be. I just think being out there counts for more than people are giving credit that's all it does it should all right um this one you want to talk about things you were sensitive to chances the jets draft a quarterback over under 70 percent um i would say under i don't't think that's a quarterback. Okay.

I know. Here we go. Okay, just here. I'll lay out. Go ahead, Gabe. Well, I want to know why. Why is it so obvious that they have their quarterback of the future in Sam Darnold? Why is that just assumed? Just like the Colts are the only team that can compete with the Patriots.

So does that mean that basically you've now given up on Josh Allen, on Josh Rosen, on Sam Darnold, like Baker Mayfield, the whole class just like, all of them are gone? I would argue that Darnold's not worse than any of those guys. Are all of them, are you just, you're all being,

you're all drafting new quarterbacks? We don't need to unpack each of them, but Josh Allen is winning right now, so we don't need to debate him. They're not going to draft a quarterback. The Bills offense sucks. Okay, but they're winning. It doesn't matter. If Sam Darnold had

the Jets, the Bills defense, he'd win games too. Okay. First of all, he has a pretty good defense and he isn't winning games. The Jets defense has not been very good this year. He is losing games. We're not talking about not winning games. He is losing the games. I just want

to know, why is it just because he was a first round pick? Why is it impossible to imagine that with maybe maybe a new coach that they'd want a new quarterback or this coach might want a new quarterback? football world that sam donald's gonna be fine don't worry he's gonna be good he's gonna be good when show me one example of us being sure this guy's good well i mean he just didn't play pretty well against the what cowboys go ahead say it a couple weeks ago against the cowboys he looked pretty good for a half okay cool he last he ended last season as the number one rated quarterback in the month of december for pff what the hell does that mean? I mean, it's improved as the year went on. First of all, what is PFF? Second of all, December? They were nine games out of it by then.

What are we talking about? So isn't that important to play well in this situation? In a game that doesn't matter. He played a bunch of statistically good games in games that had no bearing on the season. And for that reason, it's assumed we will never think about drafting another quarterback. That's what you're telling me? No, I didn't.

You asked me if they're drafting a quarterback this year. I said no. I think they might draft one next year. Oh, God. Okay. So there are some pretty good quarterbacks out there, aren't there? I mean, I know you love Justin Herbert. Joe Burrow looks pretty good.

You know what? I'm not quite sold on Herbert I don't know man I'm just like I don't know if there's one guy this year where like you have to draft him god okay like like I mean look it's early in the process obviously but like who's the dude you're like we gotta draft him I don't see one but I'm not a talent evaluator all I know is that when I watch Sam Darnold play going back to USC I see a guy who throws silly picks and has a hard time holding onto the ball when he's scrambling. A lot of fumbles.

I think he's a nice guy. I think him at his best is incredible. All right? I got no issue with the guy. I just don't understand why he's automatically surefire the guy. No, he's not automatic. Just give him another, you get three years to figure it out.

Three years. He's one more year. I'll come back next year at the same time. We'll have a million listens per episode. I know it. And everyone will be listening to me say, you know what? Donald's not the guy.

Okay, well, I'm there. So, you know, all due respect. I think he's got a few teammates who are the guy. Lev Bell has really impressed me. I think he is got a few teammates who are the guy. Lev Bell has really impressed me. I think he is the guy. It's time to get a quarterback. Well, congrats on having a great running back. Thank you.

It feels good to have a good guy like Lev Bell on our team. It means nothing, but congratulations. Oh, my Lord. Oh, God, this makes me so angry. We're going to shift away from football because I'm so annoyed right now. We're going to talk baseball. Your first true love. It is. Remaining World Series games played this year.

1.5. Can this thing extend or not, Jeff? I'm just here for the discussion about robot umpires every game. It's the only reason why I'm watching baseball at this point is to see everyone complain and whine and moan about umpiring. Takes a little bit of shine off the NFL and the college refereeing. I think it's done tonight. Houston's coming back.

They just won the last three in Washington. I mean, Washington was up 2-0. Won the first two games in Houston. Lost the next three in Washington. It feels like Houston's good. They're better than Nats. I have two futures tickets. The Astros at 590

and the Nationals at 1600. So I'll win money either way here. Mattress Mac will win about $19 million if the Astros win tonight, which I think is about to happen and the series is over. All right. Well, you know what I'm looking forward to? A cool Instagram post from JJ Watt

wearing like a Joseose altuve jersey that gets 950 000 likes there is there is play football okay there is something to say he's a little corny on social media oh yeah yeah you think he is um cool take jeff i i think generally speaking he's corny and he plays up for the camera but i used to be like hard into like kind of like hating on him for being corny. But after he did all the money raising for the hurricane, I kind of backed off of that. I feel like he used his corniness on social media to help others and raised, what, $38 million? Yes.

He is a good human who does nice things for people. So I've backed off of my very strong opinions about him being one of the corniest dudes in the NFL. Okay, let's move to social, where all these ideas come from. I got one from C-Town P-22. You honestly think NFL coaches are paying attention to college games the day before they play. This was directed at you. I'm being serious. I'm not trying to be a smartass.

I guess you said something that triggered this, dude. I need you to explain this to me. Yeah, so Lincoln Riley, the Oklahoma coach, ran a fake wide receiver screen flea flicker. So he threw the ball to the wide receiver, like a screen pass, to the left. The wide receiver ran the ball back to the quarterback, flipped it back to him. One of the wide receivers out by the screen fell down, got up and ran,

and Hurts threw it out to him. And then we saw yesterday, or Sunday I should say, multiple flea flickers early in the game. Weren't the same play, but multiple. Then we saw a double pass and a flea flicker as well. Both times, the first two we saw were from Kingsbury and the cardinals and mcvay and the rams and i think 100 these coaches see the play that lincoln riley has run it's already in their playbook they're not putting in saturday night and it comes to the top of their mind to run it

in their game on sunday so so saturday football is like just like a little reminder. Yeah. And I think I think especially the younger coaches. This is not Andy Reid. This is not Sean Payton. Not Mike Zimmer doing this. I think the Vikings did run one. No, that would have been Thursday. Anyways, it's not the older coaches, the younger coaches.

They're on social media via their own public accounts or burner accounts. They're watching television. You know, they're there. They see the highlights, right? Someone might send it to them you know hey look at this play maybe lincoln riley text kingsbury and was like yo look at this play we just ran what because they're boys oh yeah now hold on wait a minute now you just doubled down you kind of had me sold like maybe they were watching some football and maybe they were like oh yes what What if Kingsbury said – what if Kingsbury was watching that game and then was Saturday night, was just hanging at his hotel,

and was like, you know what? I'm going to just call my boy Lincoln Riley and see about that play. Like, you don't think they talk ever? But why? He's some sort of football genius. What does he need to call Lincoln Riley to explain the fallen down barking dog fight? Lincoln Riley is a much better coach,

offensive coach, than Kingsbury ever was. Just like every topic at the end of this show, you've just unpacked six more potential topics here. Lincoln Riley is a way better coach. Why aren't we talking about that? He's an offensive coach. So then why is he still coaching Oklahoma to the losses? Because he runs Oklahoma. Okay, but you know what he...

Have you been to Norman before? Norman before is just the college town. He is the owner of an entire town. He does whatever he wants. He doesn't have to answer to an owner. That's why he's still... He might leave the Cowboys this year. That's why he's still there.

He gets any quarterback he wants. This kid from Houston who just redshirted this year, King. He's a good quarterback. He's going to Oklahoma next year probably. He gets whatever quarterback he wants every year. Well, that's what I think. So let's just go here because I'm curious. Why doesn't another coach figure out,

like, what the hell is the point of traveling all through the South, you know, showing up in mom's living room, begging her to send her kid to trust you to be her guy? Why doesn't everyone just wait and see, like, oh, okay, that guy's a great athlete.'s playing on a below average team or he's stuck behind some other guy some sam darnold as the starter but the other guy behind is clearly better why not just be the recruiter who says hey you want to transfer come on over here i think generally speaking it's tough to do though i mean why always to just because you know you have to build a relationship with your quarterback and it just takes time if he just shows up in august every year

but but if it means show up go undefeated win a heisman be the first pick in the draft but they didn't do that this year though like it didn't it hasn't really worked out quite the same her is not as good of a thrower as any as murray or mayfield is. The team dumped a game that they shouldn't have. If they'd won that game and walked their way through the Big 12, he wins the Heisman, right? Like, isn't that realistic? I think Joe Burrow probably wins the Heisman, but it's possible, yes. Okay, so then we're talking about a guy who just took three transfers in a row.

I'm telling you why they don't do it. I'm telling you why it's tougher than you think it is. Plus, not everyone's getting Jalen Hurts. Look at Missouri. They got Kelly Bryant. He's not been very good. Oregon had two transfers after Mariota left.

One kid was like the best quarterback in 1AA at Eastern Washington, Vernon Adams. He came to Oregon and was not very good. All right, well, if I was a good offensive coach, I would not bother

recruiting quarterbacks. Jacob Eason went from Georgia to Washington. He's just an okay player, but that's because maybe Washington's just okay. I would be the team that spends all its time recruiting all the other. You're not coaching college. Well,

that's not the reason. Yeah. A reason. All right. I think we're done. I've run out of nonsense to say to you. Your game is finished. Tapped out.

Yeah. I got nothing left. All right. Another fantastic episode of of nonsense to say to you. Game is finished. Tapped out. Yeah, I got nothing left. All right. Another fantastic episode of Josh Hort is smarter than you. This one you can find on iTunes, of course, Google Podcast. You can find this on the Athletic.com, Athletic App Network. Please rate, review, subscribe. We always enjoy getting comments at Josh Hort as well on my Twitter.

Until Thursday, everyone, have a great couple days.