Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Mailbag Questions, Early Super Bowl Thoughts, and Recapping Preseason Props

Episode Date: February 3, 2024

Geoff and Matt are back for the final edition of their gambling show before the end of the year. On this week's episode, the boys wrap up this offseason's coaching moves, answer some listener mailbag questions, and recap how they did on their preseason prop bets. Tune in next week to see Geoff, Gabe, and Matt all together live on Twitter and Youtube previewing the Super Bowl, and be sure to follow the podcast for new episodes twice a week, plus leave a rating, comment, or tweet @GeoffSchwartz to share what you think!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's friday february 2nd i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt for this is jeff schwartz smarter than you one week away ish from the super bowl today's show will be focused um with some gambling takes but some overall coach news in national football nothing to gamble on this weekend and we'll give you our early takes on the super bowl we have a mailbag as well and luckily for me matt my dog just left the room because um for those who do not know i have a i mean 11 months now 11 with old german shepherd and he just barged in through the closed door because he figured out how to open doors uh not recently something he figured out quite early just just to just to say hi he doesn't i love this dog is the best dog ever and what's crazy matt is that my wife has was anti-dog we had a dog

when we were first together we had a dog and a cat all right and really my yeah my son we got the cat first the best part about the cat by the way was that my wife thought it was going to be a pure white cat so we called it cotton even though it ended up being like the orange like a yellow orange cat it was the funniest thing ever it was never it was never white um i'm not sure we were giving the cat we thought we were getting but that's besides the point um so we had a dog and a cat and i was we had a young son the cat was mean he would bite like it was like you gotta go so we give the cat to a friend cat's still alive still alive we see the instagram pictures of the cat still alive he's 13 years old the new family loves the cat i actually saw the woman who owns the cat

like recently in charlotte she like loves the cat so great he was rehomed he was great the dog i was going to to detroit it We were having a second kid. It just wasn't, we couldn't do it. Gave the dog to a friend who had a big farm. I thought that was the end, Matt, of my time with animals. Because my wife was so anti-dog for so many years, like legitimately, like just never going to happen. And then one day she comes home with this dog. I don't know how to explain it um but he is a large german shepherd and he will get larger and he's very bright and um it is um it's he just you know he just wants attention sometimes he's just that's what they are it's what german

shepherds are i was right at the peloton today he sat literally right next to my pedal i'm like dude move out of the way i'm going to hit you with my pedal like he just he's a German Shepherd man he wants to be by my side the entire time it's pretty special it sounds like you were uh you were negotiating with your son to get him down the stairs and you said oh can you manage to close the door with the dog and I thought you were being an ass but you were being serious because you have your you have yourself a trent williams not an isaiah pacheco it sounds like yeah well i mean he's he's probably 70 pounds right now and my son is 65 pounds and i'm trying to get him to walk him down the stairs with a leash on like my i it's a lot the the trainer we got him from said like look your kids can't work with a dog

until they're, like, 11 or 12. They're just not big enough. So I try to keep them away from having to do that. But it has been fun. We've had him for about two months now. To see my kids, Matt, like, take a lot of responsibility on with doing stuff with the dog and also just the relationship with the dog. Again, my dog came from a training center.

He's been raised to be a great German shepherd, all those things. And he had never seen a kid before, quite honestly, until we brought him home. And so he was trying to figure out how to be with the kids. And they figured it out. And it's great. He comes about 3 o'clock when the kids come off the bus he sits in the family room like wait at the door he knows they're coming he's waiting for them so it's very it's very sweet i love having the dog it's a lot of fun um and yeah it's uh you

know when you matt you have about nine years till your kid gets to be about my kid's age and he can get a dog again can't wait yeah i uh we went to the doctor today my son is age and he can get a dog again. Can't wait, yeah. We went to the doctor today, my son is 14 pounds. Oh! He's got 50 on him. Wow, 14, dude, my kids, my son is like 85th percentile for height and like 50 for weight. And my daughter is like 99 for both or 97 for both. So it is odd when my kids basically weigh the same amount.

And I'm jealous of my son because he is like super thin, not like thin like sickly, but just like thin and kind of like he swims now, so his upper body is getting a little bit yoked. And I just was never – he'll never have to worry about like what calories he puts in his body ever in his life, I don't because he's just not he's just he's just thin uh and i'm jealous of him already and he's nine yeah well that's seems healthy all the way around congrats to alex for uh for that um yeah i mean this is what happens now we have the week between the super bowl and the rest of and the rest of football and this is like such a strange week so this is what happens. Now we have the week between the Super Bowl and the rest of football,

and this is like such a strange week. So get used to this. This is what's coming for the next couple months. I saw a TikTok that was great. It was something like, what do we do? Maybe a wife was saying, do we get our husbands back after football? And this guy laid out this whole calendar of like sporting events that are coming up march madness the you know the masters the pj championship the draft um the nba finally there's it's just not football right it's it's just not football and so um this weekend this weekend there is i believe the senior bowl is on whatever bastardization of the pro bowl is this weekend i mean last night i think we're

skills competition buddy i i did not even pay one second to that did you yeah well my my cousin's in orlando and we'll get to football in a second he's in orlando and he's like should i go to the pro bowl and i was like i don't even really know what you would see if you went to the pro bowl this weekend like it used to be It used to be more stuff happening in your background. It's not anymore. You don't have to get your wish, buddy, because the dog is coming. Oh, good.

Hopefully, we'll get to see him in the course of the show. Nick, if you catch him, go to a single. I saw one clip of Jason Kelsey firing back a football or a long snap. I can actually long snap, by the way. That would have been a competition I could have done really well at.

But obviously, I'm not a pro bowler, which is the prerequisite to be in there. So, now that we're getting back to football, where would you like to start, buddy? A pro bowl dog dad. Oh, here he is. Yes!

Oh my God. I told you. He's only 11 months old. He's a massive, massive dog. Look at him. He's a massive dog. What a good man. What?

Look, that's so cute, man. Take him on the leash, babe, and put him in the thing. He's just so excited. I am imagining this will not make the audio cut. There he goes. Thank you, buddy. All right. Stay.

All right. Have fun, kid. All right. Now here we go. Let's do a show. All right. I didn't know that so much. I was going to do a little Carl Weathers off the know that so much i was gonna do uh i was gonna do a

little carl weathers off the top uh but maybe we'll save that to the end r.i.p uh to to the predator and apollo three uh three-year letterman put out a picture of uh mel gibson and danny glover on purpose and people are not taking it the right way because that's what his account is kind of like a goof account and he's like you know r.i.p carl weathers and he put danny clover and mel gibson and it made me laugh way too much obviously carl weathers man i mean like just our childhood of movies right the rockies absolutely predator which is like the best worst movie of all time oh it's a fantastic movie i i to bring this back to football i wrote i went to the nfl draft in philly um working on good morning football and he was staying at the hotel

where we stayed at and i saw him a few times then i rode an elevator once and it was just me and carl weathers and carl weathers i mean this was i mean probably six seven years ago he was he was you know an older guy like astonishing like, mind-blowingly handsome man, like, still, like, super fit, just, like, striking. So I get in the elevator with him, and I'm like, I just kind of, like, look at him, because you're like, holy shit, this is Apollo Creed in the elevator with me. And so I just kind of, like, nod to him, and he goes, yes, it's me. And then I got off the elevator. I'm really psyched. Seriously?

That's what he said? Yes. He said, yeah, it's me? Yeah. Oh, man. It was amazing. Okay. This is, I'll shoot.

Look, I'm not like a, I told you my movie preference is just like, are you entertaining or not? Like, I'm not like one of these people that's like, did it win awards or anything? Like, are you entertaining or not like i'm not like when people it's like is did it win awards or anything like is it entertaining or not um the creed movies have been incredible like they are they better than are they better than rocky movies they're better than the rocky franchise i or just because they're like the new effects like the new effects and just sort of the new everything the last one was okay it was like all right i mean like we're getting to the end of like of this probably run right i don't know man people still see it hey uh unless like unless it's his daughter next unless his daughter starts fighting that's all right that's what i think like fast

forward 12 years his daughter starts fighting. Creed 11. I like that. We're going to get there at some point, buddy. RIP Carl Weathers. And let's get to the football news here. Perhaps RIP in advance to my commanders, who hired the Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator and former Falcons head coach Dan Quinn to take over as the head coach.

Reminder, this was the guy who was last seen giving up 50 points to Jordan Love in a playoff game, his first ever playoff game, while the defense was at home. So I obviously have some thoughts on this, but the people are here to hear yours, not mine. So what do you think about this hire, and is there any hope for my stupid team? Okay, so interesting hire. You know, it's – one thing I think we're doing now, Matt,

with these hires is we're not just like grading them immediately, right? Like we're not doing this whole thing anymore. We're like, that's A, F, D, C. Like we're just not doing that, right? Because we've seen over the years that that's foolish, right? You know, some of the hires that we think are the best end up being poor. Some hires like Dan Quinn that are clearly not the first guy for the commanders end up being good hires for teams, right?

It just sort of happens. The things that make coaches good, I think we're sort of nailing down on more, you know, better lately, right? Which is the staff you hire, right? The staff you hire and the quarterback you have. Two very important things. And the thing about Dan Quinn is he has shown he can hire coaches. In Atlanta, his 2016 team, which ended up being in the Super Bowl,

Kyle Shanahan, Raheem Morris, Matt LaFleur, Mike LaFleur, Mike McDaniel, Jeff Albrecht. So Jeff is the DC, right, with the Jets. McDaniel's a head coach. Matt's a head coach. Morris is a head coach. Shanahan's a head coach. So if Dan Quinn, Matt, can hire the same caliber of coaches

and also hit on Drake Mayer, Jane, and Daniels, this would be a good hire. If he hires bad coaches, specifically on offense, and you bring a new quarterback, it's a bad hire. The one thing that you have to always worry about when you bring in defensive coaches is that when the offensive coordinator does well, he's gone, right? So that's the issue with a defensive guy. D'Amico Ryan's a good coach. We know that.

He hired Bobby Slowick as the OC Bobby Slowick will be a head coach after next season he's interviewed this year he's super young probably not ready for that job yet he will get it next season Dan you know Dan Campbell Ben Johnson stayed we'll talk about that in a second he's an offensive guy though so if you lose Ben Johnson you can still sort of survive then you need someone else obviously Andy Reid Kyle Shanahan these guys lose guys they're the primary play the rams have lost their oc feels like every single season matt and they survived because sean mcveigh is the play call so the concern of this hire to me is that part of it but look man dan quinn was a great a great dc in

seattle was good with the cowboys hired a good staff in atlanta and obviously quarterback matters right like if they if they land a home run with drake mayman or jayden daniels maybe they trade up to one the bears seem sort of wishy-washy on on the idea of of uh of kayla williams then matt it's a huge win if they whiff on that he has bad coaches sorry you fire him in three years and you hire someone else. Yeah, I think you're right. And I think, you know, zooming out of this coaching cycle, which, you know, we're going to get, we're going to talk about McDonald in Seattle in a second. There's just not that many more of these offensive young hotshots to hire. Like when you look at,

you know, the, the people who, who got hired and then the people who didn't get hired, I mean, the only one really was Callahan who was, who was not really on anyone's radar as like a hot shot offensive minds coming into this off season, you know, Bobby Sloic maybe, but that felt like it was, it might've been a year too early. Like he was, this was his first year as no C Ben Johnson weson we'll get to but you know the league sort of over indexed on these hot shot offensive minds so now there's these candidates who you know a few years ago raheem morris dan quinn you look at them not dissimilar from lauron rivera hire for washington a few years ago where you know you say like hey you know these guys have been head coaches before they've earned it you know working their way back in the coordinator ranks,

but they're on the wrong side of the ball. And I think now we're sort of just seeing, you know, when Mike Vrabel gets left on the sidelines, when Pete Carroll and Belichick obviously get left on the sidelines, it's because there's these like pretty viable defensive guys who are sitting out there. And look, I mean i i mentioned on this show i really like for he morris um i thought that i would have preferred him over dan quinn i think um you know just as a fan but you know the quinn hire like it makes sense it seems as though he was not their first choice i thought that your tweet actually was the winning tweet of this whole thing

where it showed him uh in the line at dca the dc reagan airport uh flying back to wherever he lives uh after that interview where he just you know he was alone it wasn't like he was like waving to adoring fans like he was he was just you know he was like all right i'll like bomb that one like guess i'm going back to coach you look like a guy that won the job interview put it like that he was like super fired up about the opportunity either um but i think it was just sort of this marriage of convenience and then this ben johnson wrinkle something about it was fishy the whole time um so ben you know ben johnson seemed like he was the target like everybody said i mentioned

in our group text that they mentioned it on the broadcast in the lions game it said kevin burkhart said this guy's probably the coach of the commanders which just so you guys listening know like if you work on the the commentators get a chance to talk to these coaches like yes behind closed doors no no other media and there's this sort of like agreement of like you're not going to say anything that's like directly traceable. But when the, when they say something like that on the broadcast, it's because either Dan Campbell or Ben Johnson said that to them. So I was like, when I heard that, I was like, well, Matt, not only that, not only that, Matt, they're, they're allowed to say it, you know, because there's things that like

in these production meetings that you hear that are not really for consumption outside of the of the meeting room and you can hint at that sometimes and we hear guys hint like well you know what man like you know the coaches say is the wide receiver doesn't like that's that's coming from them in those meetings and you can give sort of sly references to it but to come out like your point about kevin burkhart saying like this is something that we believe that means that he's he's hearing that he has heard that his agents heard that but that it's for public consumption now yeah it's sourced like it's real it wasn't just conjecture so that's what's so weird about this story is you know he he before he um was not you know given any jobs,

he basically took himself out of the running, goes back to Detroit. Bobby Sloat did the same thing. But for Johnson specifically, there was a report today from our mutual friend, I think Mike Garofalo, who said that he actually removed his name from consideration because he tanked the interview so hard. And I found that to be, that that you know mike's a great reporter

that kind of makes sense uh because it seems like he would have been able you know there was this report of who he's commanding so much money like i don't think that was an issue i think that maybe he you know he interviewed other places too so something happened there um that you know maybe has prevented him from taking that big swing but i'm really curious what you make of of him specifically because he was everyone's he was the hottest girl at the dance this this coaching cycle right like everybody thought yeah every every team wanted him to take over but here he is going back to detroit i think my i think uh i'm gonna say um the uh gonna say um the uh geez buddy my dog is attacking me again um i uh look i it seems the reporting of garofalo and schaefter make it clear that he was not guaranteed this job right now schaefter even mentioned this like last week like he's not guaranteed to to to

he's not guaranteed to get a job you're're just listening. I'm literally watching Jeff's dog eat the microphone. Truman Shepherd's very landsharky. And I think that it seemed clear that this was not his job to be had after we hear those remarks from Schefter and from Mike. And the question becomes obviously like, why is that? And Mike mentioned the interview process. We heard this for a lot with Eric Biennemi. The interviews didn't go well. obviously like, why is that right? And Mike mentioned the interview process. You know, we heard this for a lot with Eric Biennium, right? The interviews didn't go well. And like, what does that mean?

What does it mean? Every doesn't go well. And so to me, it's it's not about the personality not working. It's like to me, it's the plan, right? Like when you go to these meetings, you should have a plan of obviously like who you're going to hire. And I think when you're 36, like Ben Johnson, 36, I'm a 37. You might not have a great list're going to hire and i think when you're 36 like is it ben johnson 36 i'm like 37 you might not have a great list of candidates to hire he might not have a great idea of like who is ocdc special teams coach is going to be and maybe that's part of like tanking the

interviews like not having not being prepared with those. I feel like he could go into a meeting and tell everyone exactly how he's going to call an offense, a call a defense, or wants to call a defense. But who are you going to hire? Personnel, like those things I think to me are the things that we talk about when it comes to tanking or those. And maybe look, maybe Adam Peters decided the new GM. He's like, look, man, too young, one guy with experience. It's my first time being a

general manager I can't pair him with a first-time coach I'm gonna go dan so those are all part of this process again Dan Quinn will be good if he hires a good OC and a good um and a good OC and nails a quarterback pick um so Matt let's take our break now. I want to ask one thing about this. Can I ask one thing quickly about this? Yes, go ahead. The one rumored offensive coordinator is a name familiar to you, Mr. Chip Kelly.

Yeah. What do you think of that? All right. So, Chip, the thing with Chip Kelly is that, and this is a larger topic for college football. We can maybe save for another time. But Chip does not want to do the head coaching things of college football, the schmoozing, the glad-handing, the recruiting,

the talking to 17-year-olds. It's not his thing. He wants to coach. And I think he can be a fabulous offensive coordinator who just does offense, right? You give him Drake May, give him Jayden Daniels, and I think he can figure out exactly how to design an offense that works for the personnel he has.

I don't think he wants to be in charge. I think he'd be a great hire, Matt, put it like that. I think he would do a great job as just the OC, right? It's always in charge of. It's just calling the offense i think he'd be really good hire he wants out he interviewed three times the raiders and with iowa yeah interesting i mean part of the over indexed on the offensive minds thing cliff kingsbury's coming back to the nfl to work with antonio pierce right chip kelly might come back it's like there

just aren't any more of these like mid-30s yeah whiz kids sitting around to get these offensive coordinator jobs anymore. Liam Cohen's back now from the college football at Tampa Bay. I think you're right. There's just not a lot of these kind of quote-unquote offensive gurus still around, so young ones. So that's why we are where we're at. All right, Matt, we're going to take that break right now.

We'll be right back if you're listening live on the radio. We'll run a nice hour for you. Back in just a second. All right, we're back, Matt. By the way, my wife and both my kids are still home, so thanks for the help on that one there. My dog is attacking me while I'm trying to work. All right, let's go down the coaching tree. What do we got next?

Yeah, so speaking of WizKids, the Seahawks hired Ravens defensive coordinator Mike McDonald. Yeah. Everyone loves the match because he's done really well against the Shanahan offense, the McVay offense. So an interesting sort of zag for them. Another defensive guy getting a shot. This was probably my second choice after the Ben Johnson thing happens for Washington,

so probably jealous of Seattle here. What do you think of this one? Okay, what about this, like, why is this a good hire? I'm just, like, sort of curious. Interesting. Well, I think when you looked at sort of the ravens pieces this year you know clowny van noy you know obviously kyle hamilton who kyle hamilton was good but he turned into this like amazing player the ravens arguably had the best defense in the league this

year um but the personnel didn't exactly match or right like they didn't there wasn't the dallas defense that dan quinn had it wasn't you know some of these other like they didn't it wasn't the Dallas defense that Dan Quinn had it wasn't you know some of these other like Elite groups and it seems like he maximized that it seems like you know there we haven't talked about another person who's managed to sort of wrap their head around the Shanahan offense from the defensive side so from a scheme sense seems like he knows what he's doing. But interesting. You seem maybe not among the group think on this one, which is probably a good thing.

Well, I'm just curious what makes him a better coach than Dan Quinn other than he just is young and he does well against Shanahan offenses. I don't know. Or Pete Carroll. That's the thing. We have no track record with him. All we know is NFL people Pete Carroll. That's the thing. We have no track record with him. All we know is NFL people think he's going to be good. Look, NFL people thought D'Amico Ryans was going to be good, too, and he's a good coach.

But D'Amico has C.J. Stroud. Who does Michael McDonald have? Who's his quarterback? Again, I know we're oversimplifying things here, Matt, but it comes down to that a lot of times. Look at the final eight teams in national football league. I believe that the Bills had a defensive coach, right?

And they had Josh Allen. And then the Texans, obviouslyans obviously okay so the final eight teams ready texans defensive coach got blown out that happens right against the ravens special teams coach you know packers niners offense offense chiefs bills offense defense that one has josh allen and then lions bucks so bulls obviously in in the lions and dan campbell's office coach i mean these offensive coaches i think for like five or six years in a row nows obviously in the Lions and Dan Campbell's off its coach I mean these offensive coaches I think for like five or six years in a row now I've met the Super Bowl since blossoms probably Belichick in 18 I think it's just I'm

not saying you can't hire a defense coach be good to be given that quarterback and CJ Stroud is that guy is that quarterback so the question becomes obviously who's Mike McDonald going to have a quarterback? Because if he has Geno Smith, they're just going to be okay. If he obviously has someone better, then they'll be better. But I'm just so curious. I've sort of not come around on coaching hires. I think that we don't know who's going to be good,

who's not going to be good. Take Nick Sirianni, for example, right? Remember we laughed at Nick Sirianni, Matt, and then he hired Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon, and it was good all of a sudden. And then he wasn't good last year with bad coordinators, and now he hired Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio, and I figure he'll be good next season.

I mean, Matt, it's not that hard, right, sometimes? And so McDonald seems like a great young coach. There's nothing against him. But I don't know. I don't know i don't know matt i have no idea other than i thought people saying he's gonna be good coach yeah that's a good point i mean i think this is sort of the i think this is a really good point from you it's that it's a coordinator's league as much as it is a coach league and you know even with i i don't know like you looked at one of the reasons we really like the dolphins

this year was vic fangio now the reason people are going to really like the eagles is going to be vic fangio right like dallas it'll be interesting to see what they do without dan quinn like it does matter and i think that um you know i think i think part of what people really want now is sort of leadership and like executive sort of management in a way that from their head coach in a way that they didn't really. And I think that's why a team like Washington wants someone like a Dan Quinn to just come in and do what Ron Rivera was sort of supposed to do, which is like reset the culture. And, you know, this is a big change. Like Pete Carroll was that for, for Seattle for a long time.

And now this first time head coach is going to come in with, you know, kind of a mixed bag of a team like there's this there's veterans sort of all over the place on that team but there's also a lot of young players yeah like it's just going to be an interesting there's i can't tell what direction their head's been right is this like a aggressive win now hire or is this uh we're going to sort of take our time and figure out what we are kind of higher and so that's that's really interesting maybe they don't aren't really thinking about it that way but um also interesting too and for both the coaching hires we've talked about two defensive coaches neither of them were mike rabel neither of them were bill belichick neither of them were pete

carroll now that the dust is settled what do you make of that and do you think let's let's go through let's do rabel first like what do you think happens with him do you think that this was an indictment of him or what do you think's going on with that okay so sorry belichick belichick very very simply just wants player personnel control i feel like everyone just said no right he wants you things way, and that's the end of it. Pete Carroll, older coach, probably very specific on what he wants to do, even though he was less in charge of the roster when Snyder was in charge of the roster there. The variable thing is it seems, based off of last season,

he might be hard to work with, right? Tennessee should have blown everything up last year and gone back to the studs. They were not winning this season with the roster they had. Yet they went ahead and signed DeAndre Hopkins and rolled with Tannehill for a little bit, and then went to Will Levis and back to Tannehill with some injuries. They should have gone 2-17, 2-15, I should say,

and drafted in the top three, Matt. That's what they should have done. And Vabel sounded like refused to do that last season. And he just seemed to never get along with the new general manager. They think so highly of the GM. They gave him a promotion recently. They made him like VP of player. They gave him a bigger title than GM, right?

So I just think that Vabelel's hard to work with. And you look at some of these places like Seattle, John Schneider, their DM, is controlling the roster. If Mike Vrabel's not coming in there and taking that roster from him, maybe Washington, Adam Peters is like, yeah, man, like I'm controlling the roster. Harbaugh, for example, they hired him before the general manager. They're telling you who is in charge of the roster, Jim Harbaugh.

That's a big fight, right? And I think it's hard to do both at a high level. Coach and Belichick for a long time did it well until he didn't. Andy Reid famously got to Kansas City after doing this in Philly and was like, I don't want to do this anymore. And let John Dorsey and Brett Veach shoot. Now, of course, Andy Reid has a say on if they're drafting Patrick Mahomes. All right?

But he doesn't have a say on who the second-round corner is they're drafting. That's not Andy Reid's job. It shouldn't be. Andy Reid's job is to coach the football team he has and to prepare to win each and every week. His job shouldn't be having to watch. There's a kid out of Toledo. I think his name is Quinton Mitchell.

He's a cornerback. He's going to be a first-round draft pick. He's played really well. I don't expect Andy Reid to be watching Toledo film after the Super Bowl. I don't. No offense to Toledo. You know what I mean? Like, I don't expect him to do that.

That's a general manager's job to be in charge of doing that. And so I think it's hard to do both at a high level. And you look at the teams that Vrabel was talking to, it just – they weren't going to let him have that control. And a lot of coaches want that control and he wasn't gonna get it yeah i think it's probably true for carol too right like the reason seattle said goodbye to russell wilson was likely pete carol um you know with him saying like i can make geno smith into a playoff level quarterback um and these older school coaches

like if I'm Bill Belichick like and frankly like if you're coming at it from like somebody who's like in a normal job like if I hired you know more if Blue Duck hired Lorne Michaels to produce this show and I was his boss like it would be kind of weird right I'd it's like i don't know what to tell him to do like he's better than me and i think that like a gm like you know let's just take adam peters or john schneider or whoever like how are they going to tell bill belichick like no actually you're great on this corner is wrong and like you haven't drafted well in a decade like you're it's a hard thing to say so i i'm not surprised that you know it seems like

the the structure of these successful teams it's like is the gm good right is the head coach good is the quarterback good and is in this year especially it's like his offensive line good and the rest of it just kind of takes care of itself so i think uh very i think we'll definitely see ravel back with another team next year i don't know if we'll ever see Belichick again, which is crazy. I think Pete Carroll we can safely assume probably not. But, wow, what an unceremonious end to the era of both Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll. Pete Carroll didn't even get an interview from what I understand.

Pretty tough. That doesn't surprise me with the Carroll thing. Are you going to bring in Lorne Michaels to produce your Belichick podcast? I think no, we can safely delegate that one to Hank Groberg. He'll be terrific. Speaking of young people who are doing their job for the first time,

Zach Orr taking over for Baltimore's defensive coordinator. Just a nice story. He was a nice player before he got injured. Yeah. So good for him. So we have a couple things left to do here, Jeff. We've got our mailbag. We have a check-in on our betting, our props and stuff from last week.

But we also still need to talk about the Super Bowl a little bit. So I guess, let me just check in there. Like, you know, we're, we're, we're sitting here.

We can change out. The teams are going to head to Vegas next week and the circus starts right now. How are you feeling about the game? I imagine you're going to be picking Kansas city, but I'm curious just sort of what you're, what you've been thinking about this week. So the first wager made was Kansas City Moneyline immediately on Sunday.

I have not felt this good about Kansas City winning the Super Bowl in a while. I thought last year was going to be tough, right, playing the Eagles. I thought the first Super Bowl was going to be tough, different Niners team. I just think there's a lot of areas where the Chiefs have an advantage, okay? Quarterback won, start there, right? Quarterback, one. Start there, right? I mean, we talk about this often. It's a quarterback league. I mean, look, is Brock –

are we going to look back in history and think Brock Purdy is beating Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl? Eli Manning beat Tom Brady. Eli Manning is going to be a Hall of Famer. Whether you like him or not, he's a Hall of Famer. He's going to be a Hall of Famer. He might be the hall of the best of the rest you know what i mean like he might not be hall of elite player but he's be a hall of famer

he played his two best postseason runs of his lifetime and beat the patriots twice okay the throw that that he made to mario manningham in the second super bowl then the second super bowl right the manning hit the one the mar Manningham. Brock Purdy would never make that throw in his entire life, okay? It's never going to happen, all right? Okay, never going to happen. So, I can't compute that in my brain, Matt. It's a team game, I get

it, but it's also a quarterback game, right? The Chiefs have a major advantage with their defensive line against the Niners' offensive line. Trent Williams, really good. You put your worst pass rusher and you say, just have fun trying that. And you put Chris Jones and you put Karloftis on the other side where you have a huge advantage and you just pressure Purdy.

Something interesting from my buddy Guy Haberman, who covers the 49ers, does a podcast with John Middlecoff, he mentioned something that's really interesting. It's worth discussing because it's true. He said the problem with Brock Purdy being a little bit undersized is when he gets hit in the pocket, the ball goes everywhere. Like when Mahomes gets hit, Matt, the ball still goes straight. When Josh Allen gets hit, the ball still goes where it's supposed to go.

If Purdy gets hit at all when he is throwing, the ball just sprays all over the place because he's not strong enough to control his body as he's being hit the Chiefs are going to hit him you're going to hit him a lot Matt and I love I love DVOA I love EPA I love all those numbers Matt but I feels a little bit like you can't take what the Chiefs did the first 18 weeks and use that for right now they're a different team right now. They've turned it on. They're playing better right now.

So I think the Chiefs win this game. Look, is it seven points or less? Probably Super Bowl. Games tend to be close. But I have made, I think, four wagers. Well, the Chiefs money line, five wagers so far. I got this from bill krackenberg it's worth betting what he's intended to be i can't bet all the wagers he has because i'm not

he's offshore longest punt for the niners over 55 and a half yards i hit that one already everyone loves this one the action network guys are all over this wish now ski but it says but i got it at 55 and a half i think it's at 56 and5 now. I also like Rashi Rice over receptions and yards. The Niners are very static on defense. They do not move. They stay still. I think Rice is number one or two in the NFL in yards after the catch. Like he catches the ball and just jets upfield.

I think he will be open a lot in this game. And then I have Brenna Ayuk under receptions and under yards. I go back to this again. The Chiefs tend to lock up number one wide out. The reason why Zay Flowers was over last week was that one blown coverage. And so that's where I'm sitting right now, Matt. I've been hitting this one a lot the last couple weeks. I took Pacheco, by the way, over 15.5 yards for his longest rush of the game.

Fair enough. I don't know if I'm going to do much else. I'm going to not be in a – I mean, I won't be until Vegas until Thursday. I mean, by then, it's like there's no value in some of these props unless you take the unders as people hammer the overs. So that's where I'm at right now. So that's where I'm at right now. I might do Samuel Debo over his props because I'm taking the under for IU,

just sort of pairing those up together. I mean, they've got to move the ball a little bit, I feel like. So that's where I'm at right now with the wagers I have. How do you feel about the game? I'm just sort of starting to really dive in. The thing that I agree, I'm on Kansas City, but I think, you know, I feel like I'm a little bit of like the player at the blackjack table who was like, yeah, all right, I'll like, I'll get up soon. Let me just play this last hand. And throughout the playoffs, I've just been on the Chiefs the whole time. And every week they've won and covered and been underdogs. So I'm sort of like, okay, like, I guess I'm i'm doing this again one last hit you don't leave the table on a hot streak that's kind of how it feels but i agree with you like when you look across the board like there's a couple things about this team you mentioned pretty already um the chiefs the chiefs are the hotter team the chiefs have looked stronger and better and smarter and how they've sort of attacked the teams they've played.

If you look at the 49ers, it's kind of crazy to say this. If you even just look back through the last month or so, other than the time where they absolutely smoked the Commanders, which was weirdly close for a half. They probably should have lost last week. They probably should have lost to the packers they did lose to the rams and they did get smoked by the ravens like they have not really looked as good as they've felt yeah in a long time um so and and the chiefs like we're just past being concerned about the chiefs right the chiefs are they are yeah step up like they're going to be at the level they need to be to win this game even if they lose so you know one of the other things too is like

kyle shanahan last week kyle shanahan was not the dumber coach it was dan campbell unfortunately for alliance fans kyle shanahan's gonna have to sort of like do things that are beyond just like managing the game like there's going to be a clock issue. You like Reid over Shanahan in the big decision spots. There's going to be a big decision to make of whether you go for it or don't. I like Reid over Shanahan when it comes to decisions. Shanahan will always hit your field goal. Shanahan will.

Yeah, and you like Mahomes to make those money throws more than Purdy. You like the Kansas City defense to get another play, maybe more than the San Francisco defense. So I think – I'm not exactly sure. I think the public side probably would agree with me throughout. So I'm really surprised still that the 49ers are favored because the Sharks must be all over.

Yeah, the Sharks must just be all over the 49ers. Which is the same thing they had with the Ravens. So by the way we'll finish with one step before we turn to the mailbag questions um worst first half point differential in the playoffs leading up to the super bowl um nfa history okay worst first half point differential in the playoffs um the niners have the second-worst point differential, minus 16 in the first half. And the team above them and the five teams below them have all lost in the Super Bowl. So the Chargers in 94 were minus 22.

The Niners blew them out. That's the Steve Young six-touchdown game. But in our lifetime, really, the 2014 Seahawks were minus 12. That was the Malcolm Butler game. They lost to New England that game. And then the 2012 Niners were minus seven, and they lost to Baltimore in that game. So, again, to your point about sort of not playing quite the same

as they had previously, that's a good way. Look, and Tuesday, guys, everyone, Tuesday, we'll be in Los Angeles, the three of us. We'll have vaulted. I talked to vaulted today. Yesterday, I should say, they, we'll be in Los Angeles, the three of us. We'll have Vaulted. I talked to Vaulted today. Yesterday, I should say. They're going to get the pullout for us. Remember, $5,000.

We'll be for the big game. We'll have prize picks. We'll have Gabe. We'll have Matt. We'll be all together in Los Angeles. That'll be a lot of fun. We'll do that Tuesday afternoon. Let's get to mailbag questions.

Actually, for the first time, Matt, we've got like 12 questions on the mailbag. Let's get to our favorite ones of them before we call it a weekend. Yeah, let's do that. We sort of touched on this, but this is the kind of show where we would go deeper. From Todd Rogers, who has the edge in the trenches? How big is it if Tooney can't go for Kansas City? Well, the best player in the trenches is Trent Williams, obviously. And Tooney probably will not play is my guess. But the Niners, outside Trent Williams' offensive line, is just okay. Just is. The Chiefs overall, I think, have the better talent on both sides of the ball.

They're playing really well right now. Obviously, losing a man, he was a big deal for Kansas city. He was a big part of what they do. They mentioned having to use their rookie more, which is not great in the super bowl. Hasn't played very much this season, but they look, they lost him in the second quarter last week and we're fine.

Right, Matt. So they lost him. Unfortunately, right after he stripped sack Lamar, the next drive, I think he, he tours ACL,

but Chris Jones, Chris Jones, by the way, in three super bowls, Matt has zeroris jones by the way in three super bowls matt has zero quarterback hits and zero sacks in three super bowls i thought that's going to change this weekend uh excuse me next weekend um so i think the chiefs have the advantage um in the trenches this weekend i think that the liners might still run the ball well but it's it's the chiefs yeah so that sort of dovetails into the

next question which uh for is from braden um which 49ers offensive skill player will have the biggest game in the super bowl i'm sure this is a guy looking to bet over um yeah what would you say to him i mean i i think if you're looking at someone it's probably debo we've talked about this a lot where we have the Chiefs tennis tour takeaway number one, and number one is Brent Ayuk, right? Sort of the number one wide receiver. And I think they're going to focus on Christian McCaffrey, like not let him beat us.

Someone else has to be open, and then someone else is probably Debo in the slot against one of the Chiefs' linebackers maybe. But I'll tell you, if Trent McDuffie travels with Debo, maybe looking at someone else, right? I mean, that's a fun part about this game. The Chiefs have two all-pro-level cornerbacks, Snead and McDuffie. Hard to score on someone. You have two of those guys, right, Matt?

It allows them to bring a lot of pressure. So I think, too, I can see, like, Juszczyk having a weirdly, you know, gets a bunch of receptions and stuff in the flat. We saw the last three weeks the Chiefs have really sort of allowed teams underneath to catch the ball and then rally and tackle really well. I actually am kind of curious what, like, a Jusz receptions would be at. If it's, like, one and a half, I might take the over. I'm kind of curious about what that would be that would be right now unfortunately man this offshore life is

it ends march 11th buddy ends march 11th when we get we get a full speed uh full speed ahead here for for legal sports weather north carolina love that for you uh hopefully california will get there one day i think you know that the the odds makers have juiced christian mccaffrey's um day i think you know that the the odds makers have juiced christian mccaffrey's um rushing props very high the chiefs defense um their weakness is the rush which again goes back to why the ravens called the game that they did last week um they give up about four and a half yards of carry which you know that's that's what the ravens gave up to i guess but um that is sort of the weak point um you know they're in the range of teams like the Cardinals and Commanders and the Saints, generally sort of weaker teams.

So I think that if you're the 49ers, you're coming into this and you're saying, we're going to run the ball, we're going to run it a lot. You mentioned Debo. I think Debo's probably going to get a bunch of carries just to sort of mix it up because I think the Chiefs' plan is going to be to stop mcafree right they're not gonna they're gonna be okay if iuk and maybe kittle to some degree beat them uh you know with if they're worried about mcafree then samuel then kittle probably so um i do think that they're gonna have a

nice they're gonna probably aim to succeed running the ball and kyle shanahan knows how to do that um all right moving away from the super bowl here uh to our next mailbag questions um and Kyle Shanahan knows how to do that. All right, moving away from the Super Bowl here to our next mailbag questions. Jeff M. asks, how do you think the four new members of the Big Ten will do in football this season? Ooh, good question.

Chip Kelly, you're going to leave to be my team's offensive coordinator, so we'll see how that goes for UCLA. What about the others? Oregon's going to be fine. They have a great recruiting talent right now they have a lot one or two top portal class um they're going to be fine usc is interesting man um they hire new defensive coaches matt which is great and he had to do that he doesn't need better players now you know they hired danton lynn who is ucla's defense coordinator ucla had a great

year on defense for those who might not have paid attention. They also have a top 10 pick at pass rusher in Leatu Latu. The U.S. doesn't have that on their roster right now. It helps to have good football players. They need better football players. But looking around, they can coach offense. They're going to be fine, I think. UCLA is just – they're destined for six to eight wins every year, I feel like.

And Washington has lost, I think, all 22 starters from the playoff game through the portal and through the NFL. They're going to be fine eventually, Matt, but they're going to struggle for the first couple years. They don't have anyone on their roster right now with Jed Fish. He'll get it right. He'll get it right. But I think right now Washington's going to have some trouble.

I think right now Washington's going to have some trouble. It is worth pointing out that we have really have not seen much of the Power Five to Power Five conference realignments. Those teams sort of pan out to be really good in the new conference. We've seen Group of Five go up, Utah, TCU, but we haven't seen much of that. But Oregon is so – dude, they got a lot of talent, man. They're well-coached. So, they're going to be fine, I feel like, in the Big Ten. It was a lot of fun.

We got some Oregon-Maryland coming up soon, buddy. Yeah. We got to – Get nervous, buddy. We're coming. Do we take a – are you going, to, to Maryland for that game? We're going to get a game together to watch them lose by 60 points. Probably not.

I think I'll, I think I'll stick around here. Maybe when they come and play a USC or UCLA, I think that would be Maryland. Let me see. Where's Maryland at Maryland. Here we go. Maryland plays at Oregon this year,

2024. That I'd be more likely to go to and go with you. At UCLA in 25? At USC in 26? At Washington in 27? Yeah, we'll see. It's so weird to

see that. Definitely check out some college basketball when Maryland goes to UCLA and stuff. UCLA's right down the street um speaking of oregon uh eight at 800 pound follower his name is b fan um love this guy already he asks how can the senior bowl reports on bone necks be so wildly different um i'm really curious what you make of that. Yeah, great question. Senior Bowl, East West Strong, they're happening right now. And those are college all-star games, right? And so we get to watch a little bit of it on television.

And then there's film that's given out. I have access to film if I want to watch it on the practice. So you get reports, Matt, from the field. Okay, this happened, this happened, this happened. And then people go back and watch the film and they give a different report without telling you, okay, I've watched the film on said guy. So you might see a couple of plays that are bad. Go watch the film, you realize,

oh, the wide receiver didn't run the right route or there was pressure in his face. That's why the reports vary so much. oh, the wide receiver didn't run the right route or there was pressure in his face. That's why the reports vary so much. And of course, different people look for different things, right? Some evaluate a player for this reason. Some evaluate a player for that reason. And so not everyone is evaluating the same guy with the same eyeballs.

Matt, me and you might watch Bo Nix play. I think he's great. You don't think he sucks. We watch the same exact throws. And so bias plays a role in how this is covered. And so that I think is, is why we get different reports on what have, I have not watched much senior balls on some of the offensive linemen. So I couldn't tell you what exactly it doesn't really spark my interest to watch, you know, the seventh best college quarterback playing a senior bowl. But you know, it's i know a lot of people love it it's draft season we'll we'll be talking draft soon we have our favorite episode

i think we do every year is our little mock draft we do it uh near uh near uh near draft time so um it uh that's why there's there's just different eyeballs man and everyone sees things differently yeah same thing seems to be happening with penix. And that one's a little more complicated because of his health history. Yes. But yeah, mixed bag on Penix, right? Yeah. So he's been pretty hurt previous to Washington. And I think part of it, too, with Penix is that he basically played two games a year where he got hit.

The first Oregon game and the Michiganigan game and he left both those games like pretty beat up and it's not great when your quarterback gets hit in two games essentially and leaves those games with injuries um i mean they'll never say it but i think he broke his ribs against oregon the first time that's what it feels like um and then he got you know the mission game he walked off the field in a lot of pain again. So you just don't want to see that from your quarterback, right? National football, you hit a lot no matter where you go. Yep.

Yeah, that's going to be tricky. I'm going to simplify Zach's question here, where he asked to rank the quarterbacks long-term. Let's just hit the rookies here. And then maybe we can put in let's maybe we can put in trevor lawrence as the fourth just for sort of a barometer here so let's rank these four caleb drake may jayden daniels and let's just say trevor lawrence who we'll say is a very promising young quarterback who also isn't lighting the league on fire let's call him the median um what do you how

would you rank those four i I see the question here. I actually think that we should include Fields because this is a discussion the Bears are going to have, right? Is it Caleb Williams or Justin Fields? I think Caleb Williams is better than Justin Fields. I think you would go like Caleb, probably Lawrence. As far as prospects, Lawrence as he is now. Rank these QBs long-term.

I guess picture yourself doing that in franchise drafts. I would probably do Williams, Lawrence, May, Daniels, Fields. That's what I would kind of go with. Interesting. Fields makes sense to me to be the lowest there. I'm curious what you think about the, about Jaden Daniels. It seems like there are some people who are really gassing him up. He could have one of those combines where he really pops.

Oh yeah. But that one, I mean, he's one where I feel like, you know, this has happened before. I don't want to, I don't want to put this out there,

especially because my team is picking second, but there's, you remember how Mitch Trubisky, it kind of was like he sucked and then he had one really awesome season and everyone was like man i mean it's a little different obviously because because daniel's obviously one of heisman but there's this feeling of like oh this guy like came out of nowhere and look at his athletic ability look at his talent is this the kind of guy who can come in and just continue to sort of like hockey stick growth this way to the top here?

I don't know. It seems very interesting to me. I feel like one of those things where like Caleb Williams, I think he'll be good anywhere, but Jay Daniels will be good where – he's got to go to the right place to be good, right? I mean, most of his quarterbacks do. Williams to me is that good where he'd be good anywhere. But Jay Daniels, I feel like he's got to go to the right place for him.

Yeah. Yeah. I think that's probably true of May as well. Yeah. Although he does – he certainly looks the part. Yeah. But, you know, Jane Daniels is – I mean, obviously, he's amazing. Let's do these last two.

Arthur Smith from – this one's from FM Zhang. Did Arthur Smith's system make Tannehill good? Could he do the same for the Steelers quarterback, who we assume is Kenny Pickett, but we're not sure. Yeah. Good question. We'll end with this one, by the way. I know we said two more, but I got to take my kids somewhere real quick, Matt.

So Arthur Smith's question is a good one. more but i gotta i gotta i gotta take my kids somewhere real quick matt um so arthur smith question's a good one you know to me i need to see a little bit more of a complex passing attack from him to feel good about like winning superbowl so that makes sense like in tennessee it was so run heavy play action, and they had that one deep run, Matt, where Henry was in his prime, and Ryan Tannehill was sort of making that comeback player of the year status.

Remember, Moriota was starting there, and then Ryan Tannehill. And then it just fell off a cliff. Part of that was Arthur Smith leaving, of course. But how sustainable... It felt a lot like what Greg Roman did with the Ravens. You know, like, it's good till you play a playoff game. You know, it's good, like, till you play the better defenses. And I got to see a little bit more from him as far as, like, just developing

the passing attack for me to feel good about what he'll do in Pittsburghittsburgh plus i mean can he pick it to me again like look at the afc look at his division lamar joe burrow josh allen tua herbert with hardball mahomes like he they're not going to win with kenny pickett correct yep yeah yeah i think yeah it's like fail faster tear it down um yeah we'll see it's it's a funny it's like fail faster, tear it down. Yeah, we'll see. It's a funny pick because the Steelers are like the most frustrating offense ever, and now they add the guy who didn't give Bajon Robinson the ball. So I'm looking forward to him torturing fantasy owners just in a new uniform. All right, Matt, we're going to do Gamble Recap.

We're going to do that at the end of the year because we're still going to gamble next week. Matt, we're going to do Gamble Recap. We're going to do that at the end of the year because we're still going to gamble next week. I'm sorry my dog interrupted some of the show today, guys. He's very excitable. Apologies. I know.

I got to go take my kid to do some events. All right, guys. Have a great weekend without football. We'll be back on Tuesday in person, live, all of us together. We're going to have a lot of fun down at the Blue Duck Studios. We'll talk to you guys on Tuesday.

Have a great weekend, everyone.