Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - New Years Six Bowl Picks and the Best Bets for NFL Week 17

Episode Date: December 30, 2021

Geoff and Matt break down the biggest bowls of the New Year’s Eve weekend to help you how to kick off 2022 in the green. And unlike Kliff Kingsbury, Matt and Geoff are heating up as the season draws to a close. After another winning week in week 16, Matt and Geoff look at every game on tap for the NFL this weekend (19:00), as always sharing their five best picks and highlighting a few more games that they are staying away from (Broncos vs. Chargers, Jaguars at Patriots).Also, Geoff and Matt take a moment to share the impact John Madden had on their lives.As always, rate, comment and follow the podcast if you enjoyed the episode. Here’s to lots of fat guy touchdowns in 2022!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, December 30th. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz and Smarty, powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. It is our wagering preview show. We will talk about the upcoming college football playoff, the group of six bowl games as well, and we'll get into the NFL, which Matt, we're climbing up. We're 38-42. We are 10-5 the last three weeks. We're 21-14 the last seven weeks because we had a stretch there. We did not do very well. We won't talk about that. We're moving forward.

And before we get to all of that, how are you doing? I'm good, brother. How are you? How are you feeling? Yeah, I have COVID. I'm at the end of the COVID, I think. And just like the NFL is trying to find the new CDC guidelines, so am I. I'm like digging deep into these new guidelines to figure out when I can reenter society.

So if you hear me breathing heavy a little bit and sniffling and coughing, that's why. But I feel better. I'm fortunate. My family's doing well. Before we get to football, let's talk about John Madden very quickly. I find it odd how much we, you know when people pass away and there's a bunch of those platitudes on Twitter, right? We're just like, I just don't, I find it odd how much we, you know, when people pass away and there's a bunch of those platitudes on Twitter, right? We're just like, I just don't participate in that.

I don't. But for John Madden, it feels different, right? Because for John Madden, for us, we're the same age. For us, he was the voice of football as kids. He was the voice of, you know, you are a Washington football team fan. That is the NFC conference. That is John Madden. That's Fox. I was a Niners fan that's John Madden that's Fox right like we grew up listening to John Madden and the impact that he had on our lives and the impact he had on the NFL it's hard to think of another person individually who had as big an impact on

the game who did not actually play the game, right? Because you can argue like, you know, Lawrence Taylor changed the offensive line position, right? Because of how good he was. But what John Madden did is, well, a color guy, right? When we talk about announcers, we typically talk about the play-by-play guys, not the color guys. And I'll never forget when, in the 90s, he was the first person to ever talk to the offensive line. Do you remember he would draw all in the ass sweat

of the Cowboys offensive linemen? Like he loved the offensive line. He loved Larry Allen. He loved the Cowboys. He loved the Packers. He loved all of it. And his enthusiasm for the game, when you listen to him,

and what I try to do on my show, and when I talk football, is try to make you smarter. And I guess that's John Madden's style I don't think about myself doing a Madden impression but Madden made you a smarter football thing he was able to talk about the game and make you make you learn something without overloading you with with football jargon right he just was able to explain what's happening on the field in terms you understood and make it exciting and make it fun and then and then boom and then next to play right like it was just and so i think that this is a special

person that deserves like i'm not saying you don't deserve the platitudes but everyone kind of sharing their own madden stories on a tragic day has been um fun to watch and i watched most of the fox documentaries so far i taped taped the football life again to watch. But yeah, impactful voice and person in the league has passed away. And it's disappointing because I know for, again, for a lot of us, he was like the voice of our football childhood. Yeah, that's really well put. Not a ton to add, but I will say underrated as a coach.

Something I didn't really know because he he was coaching well before either of us were alive but 103 32 and 7 as a head coach in 10 years that's a 760 uh that's 76 he was winning games won a super bowl and one of the great photos of all time with him on the shoulders i mean the video game is like the thing that a lot of people think about obviously but i think the point of why the video game matters and it goes back to your point about his commentary is he just made it all more fun like he had credibility as a winner and as a coach but he just like he made it so everyone could participate like he was fun to listen to he was a great entertainer he obviously knew the game really well he was a different kind of guy too like he's this big fun entertaining guy who enjoyed the whole process of the game he wasn't laser focused on a specific position or anything like

that he was the best so it's nice to see so many people remember him and also that fox happened to release that documentary a few days ago. It was like this nice moment where he kind of reentered our consciousness. Yeah. Oddly times. Lots of memorializing of a really important dude. And he has the highest win percentage of any coach with 100 games in NFL history. Wow.

And when you look at his history, his success in Oakland, he made, I think, six AFC Championship games and only won one because the Steelers were in front of him and the Dolphins. There was no free agency. You weren't like – it was like Terry Bradshaw just left the Steelers. He was there forever. And so he finally was able to break through. He retired at 42 in an early age. And then obviously went back.

And the video game is really true because when I tweeted out my comments about the offensive line and what I appreciated from John Madden, people said, hey, look, I'm not from America. Like my recollection of Madden, why I like Madden was the video game. Wow.

I mean, how many people have learned football from playing that game? I haven't played in years. I don't have time. But I played as a kid. My brother shared a story on Twitter today that he would sneak downstairs in the morning maybe before my parents woke up to go

play Madden. This is an entire generation. My son will eventually play Madden. The ability to get fans of the sport through that video game will never be able to fully

be measured, but that goes to his legacy as well yeah cheers to him so and and by the way the people out there there are bad faith tweeting i'm well when does that ever happen never on twitter jesus buddy is bad all right let's uh let's move on uh john madden rest in peace again, there's plenty of, go look up the videos. NFL.com has posted a bunch of them. If you can watch the Fox special, All Madden. I believe it's now streaming on ESPN Plus as well. They kind of just released it out to the public.

So you can go ahead and watch that. It's very well done. Kind of takes you through his broadcasting career. All right, let's get to the group of five. The New York Six Bowl games, Contra World Playoff. Unfortunately, you're listening to this on Thursday because I would have told you to bet Oklahoma tonight against Oregon as your recordings on Wednesday night.

But that game has passed. I can't tell you that. Let's start with the Peach Bowl, Michigan State and Pittsburgh. This game is Michigan State's favorite by three. This line has gone from Pittsburgh favorite to Michigan State favorite because Pittsburgh's quarterback, Kenny Pickett, is

sitting out of this game. But I'm still rolling with Pittsburgh here plus three for a couple reasons, Matt. One is Michigan State's defense is atrocious. And I'm not sure it matters what quarterback's in the game. They have a month to prepare for this. And a month to prepare against a really bad pass defense. We saw what Ohio State did to Michigan State.

You have opportunities to still score points. On the flip side, Michigan State's losing their running back, Kenneth Walker, scoring the NFL, not playing this game. He was their offense. Their offensive line's not that good. They didn't really have an explosive passing game. Pittsburgh's defense, guys, not that bad. Top 20 points per drive. They get enough pressure. They're good on third down. So I think Pittsburgh here, plus the three points. Mot three points uh motivation as well haven't been this game in a while backup quarterback i get it but i think pittsburgh is the play here plus do you have any thoughts on this one that's interesting i i would have assumed you'd go the other way based on the picket thing i think don't you have a

theory with teams that win their conference and are playing a bowl game versus a team that you know didn't win their conference in michigan state like game versus a team that, you know, didn't win their conference in Michigan state. Like, doesn't this mean a little bit more to a Pittsburgh because of like what this would sort of say about their season. Don't you think? 100%. Like the,

I know the loser of the PAC 12 championship game has gone like one and eight in their last nine bowl games. And, you know, the SEC champion we know always plays like the group of five team of sugar bowls. It's been tough the last couple of years for them. So I'm with you.

Again, and they lost their best offensive player, which is hard to replace because they don't, again, when you have a month to prepare with a new quarterback, it's a bad defense. You have time to figure it out. There's no running back that makes the offensive line better. The offensive line kind of just got by. So, again, I'll roll with Pittsburgh here.

Next up on the list, all right, playoff games. We're just going to go in order of the games here. Cotton Bowl first, Alabama-Cincinnati. Alabama's here by 13.5. So, this is very simple for me. I'm going Alabama here. Don't care for the square play. Willie Anderson, their defensive end, came out the other day and said,

we're disrespected. No one believes in us, which is the rally cry for all these good teams when they're playing these games. How many times, Matt, has Tom Brady determined himself to be the underdog? It always works. So Alabama's mind is in the right place,

which I figured it would, because you go to Alabama for two reasons. Go to the NFL and win a championship. That's why you're there. They're there to win a championship. Cincinnati has good players on defense. They have a couple corners that are really good. One All-American corner.

But they can't line up for 60 minutes and go toe-to-toe with Alabama. They don't have the guys to make it happen. They're going to have to rely on some trick plays forcing turnovers and to me matt it just won't be enough it's gonna be close early on if it's not close early on it is over like if alabama comes out goes up 14 nothing i would lie but alabama like boo i mean that can be 55 nothing before you know it i think this game is close early on and the second half alabama takes this one out what do do you think? Wow. I don't think there's a person on earth who's going to be betting Cincinnati that doesn't go there currently or didn't go there.

Well, I think all of our friends at Action Network have taken Cincinnati, by the way. Interesting. Well, Alabama's getting all the bets and all of the money, actually more of the money. So I think it's possible it's because this one came down. I wouldn't be shocked if this moves up to like over 14 on game day. So if you're with Jeff, I would jump in on the Sooner side.

That would be my guess. Yeah. The next game is Georgia and Michigan. This one's pretty interesting. So I think it's 7.5 right now. 7.5 I would take Michigan here. The concern I have for this game for Michigan is, can you get explosive plays on offense?

Because I think defensively, you're going to be fine this game. Interesting, the SEC's 0-4 in bowl games, and three of those teams Georgia beat this year. Georgia more and more feels like a little bit of a paper weight, like paper tiger. What's that word? I'm trying to figure it out. I don't know what to write that out.

Yeah, Paper Tiger feels right. Yeah, something like that, whatever. Like, they're just kind of just like, played a bunch of bad football teams. Michigan will be able to shut them down offensively. The question is, can Michigan do enough on their offense? And more often than not, it's going to have to be through the air, because

Michigan's offensive line is good, but Georgia's front seven is legit. And so, they're going to have to be through the air because Michigan's offensive line is good, but Georgia's front seven is legit. And so they're going to have to find ways to get the ball down the field like Alabama did in the SEC title game. You can get their secondary if you allow your quarterback to have time. The problem is Michigan doesn't have Alabama's wide receivers. They don't have those catch the ball for 15 yards, score a touchdown guys. Now, you can chunk play them, I guess,

but it feels hard to chunk play Georgia's defense. You need to make those plays when you have them. Alabama did and Michigan did. However, I feel like this is a very low scoring game. I get over a touchdown here, Matt. I'll take Michigan in this spot. Interesting. The total on this is kind of high for the respect

that Georgia's defense has been given all season uh it's 45 which is you know somewhat somewhat i don't know it's not 80 like some of these college games are but it's in the mix there would you play the under i guess given the way you look at this feels super low for country ball game yeah like 45 is low is be like oh for nfl game it's like middle of the pack. Right. It's just low for a cultural ball game. Yeah. Interesting. I think I would, you know, I'm guessing Alabama's going to win the title.

Shocker. I would think that these two teams are kind of close. So, yeah, I think I would go with Michigan in the points myself. But I don't know. Don't listen to me. Let's go to the Fiesta Bowl, OK State and Notre Dame. So I'm going with OK State here plus the points. They won the Big Ten title game with four turnovers,

four interceptions a quarterback threw. It's not going to throw four interceptions against Notre Dame. My concern for this game is on the Irish side is offensively when they played someone who can play a defense, they've been shut down. Oklahoma State's defense, guys, is one of the best in the country. It might be behind Georgia as far as their efficiency numbers. They're number three in the country in points per drive. They're number three in three and out percentage. They're number five in explosive play rate.

Like, Notre Dame's not going to score enough points here. The question is, can Oklahoma State do enough offensively? The question becomes, obviously, if Saunders doesn't turn the ball over. So I'm going to roll with Oklahoma State here. Obviously, Notre Dame has a coaching change, but this game matters more to Oklahoma State than Notre Dame. Again, motivation I think matters in these games. Oklahoma State's biggest game in five years.

Notre Dame, they thought it might be a playoff team. So, and they have a coaching change as well. It's Marcus Freeman's first game as a head coach against Gundy, who went to a lot of football games. He's a good coach. So I'll go with the established staff here, getting two and a half points with Oklahoma State. Yeah, I think that's the right play.

I think your point about Freeman's first game as a coach, this is a tough, tough first spot. It's a good learning experience for them. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm with you on OK State. Rose Bowl, Saturday, 5 o'clock ohio state against utah the line is four for ohio state is the favorite what do you think my favorite play of bowl season is uh is utah plus whatever the points are really it's been yeah it's been everywhere i got it seven

it's now at four i would take them on the money line. Let me explain why. We'll talk about motivation on these bowl games, right? Here's how Utah's season went. Now, mind you, I know them very well. It's a covered Pac-12 conference. So their best player last year, about this time, about Christmas time, had an accidental gunshot wound and passed away, Ty Jordan.

So they go into training camp. They have a quarterback battle. And they end up starting Charlie Brewer. Doesn't go well. They go one and two. They bring Cam Rising in, who actually was voted captain even though he was the backup quarterback.

Since he came in, they've lost one game. About halfway through the season, they had another player who was shot and killed at a party, like in cold blood, Aaron Lowe. Ty Jordan and Aaron Lowe were best friends. And the adversity they've had to play through this season is unrivaled.

I can't recall a situation like this at all. Now, I haven't done research on that, but to have two players to gun violence, one obviously accidental, one not, in a span of one year, best friends. And then to go out and continue to win football games at the rate they have, to continue to play as well as they have, for the coaching staff and players to come together as a unit and play the way they have is remarkable. This is the first time they've ever played in the Rose Bowl.

First time they've ever won the Pac-12 Conference. Obviously, only been in the conference for 10 years now. And they weren't supposed to be here this year. That was next year. Next year was their big year. They started nine new guys on defense. Ohio State doesn't care about this game, which I'd never say about a Rose Bowl.

They want to be a playoff team. Their two best wide receivers are opting out. Their left tackle opted out. Their D tackle opted out. Utah's style of play, run the football, play action, pass. That's what Oregon and Michigan did against Ohio State.

When Ohio State has played a good defense, whether it's Michigan, Nebraska, Penn State, their offense is not as explosive. And now you take away their two best wide receivers. Utah's defense is really good, guys.

Devin Lloyd, All-American middle linebacker, number zero. Watch him, dude. He's got seven sacks, 20 tackles for me. He's a monster, a monster. We talk about Trayvon Henderson, Ohio State's running back. He's averaging obscene amount of yards per carry.

Devin Lloyd can run with them. They have the guys to play defense against Ohio State. Utah also has the greatest logo for this game. They had double interlocking U's with the rows through it. Nice. It's unbelievable. I think Utah wins this game outright outright there's a motivation factor here i'm i am i've been amazed at how they played with the tragedy around their team i i they have rallied around it they have played through the tears and played through the adversity and they played some really really

good football interesting i love it jeff i think uh you definitely convinced me i would grab this at four before it keeps moving because it's it has shifted quite a bit all right let's move on i think we just have one more right let's go to saturday night the sugar bowl uh baylor old miss we're seeing this at Old Miss favored by one. This will probably move a little bit, but big story is that Matt Corral's playing, right? Yeah, Matt Corral is playing. I'm kind of surprised everyone else is opting out.

So I think here the spot definitely has to be with Old Miss getting the point here. We talked about, excuse me, giving a point here. We talked about losing the title game, right? Baylor lost that title game to Oklahoma State in heartbreaking fashion. Old Miss with their offense right? Baylor lost that title game to Oklahoma State in heartbreaking fashion. Ole Miss with their offense, and Baylor's good on defense,

but Baylor offensively just kind of struggles a little bit. This is Lane's best defense at Ole Miss. To me, this number is odd. I'm surprised to see it at this number. I thought Mississippi State, Mississippi would be favored by more here. Now you can admit the inclusion in the SEC's 0-4, maybe the conference is not as good,

by more here. Now you can make the inclusion in the SEC 0-4. Maybe the conference is not as good, but I do not think this game is going to be that close. So I'll take Ole Miss here. Yeah. I've done a little scouting of Matt Corral

given the situation in the Washington football team. This is a big deal that he's playing this one. This could be a cautionary tale or it could be the like, oh, this guy could be a number one pick. So I'm with you. I would take Ole Miss, even though their their offensive coordinator is not going to coach in this game. Makes that decision even more interesting.

Yeah. All right. Well, those are our college picks. We move to the NFL. Unfortunately, we have to because these are these call these NFL lines are so bad. They really are. All right, buddy. we have to because these are these call these nfl lines are so bad they really are all right buddy let's start i just mentioned the football team let's start with them there are three and a half point home dogs to philadelphia my god i mean you gotta take washington here right i mean of course but i i just how many weeks have I come on this podcast?

I've been like, it's the play. It's the thing to do. Like that. I mean, to be fair, we have one more of these lately. True. You know, these teams played two weeks ago. And my theory, we were texting about this last week is my theory is these, you know, quick turnaround divisional games. You want to always take the points, especially a home dog.

You know, the Eagles just beat Washingtonhington but garrick gilbert was the quarterback hank mentions we've picked washington five times and we're oh and five they've been absolutely brutal to us this year one of the worst teams against the spread anyway um i this is not one of my favorites it's a good number but you know this team could easily apart. I'm not encouraged by what they bring to the table right now. So just – all right. Starting with – yeah, we should bet this, but we're just not going to do it. I'll put this down as a maybe. Washington, since their – Ron Rivera was covering at a pretty high rate until kind of his roster got COVID decimated.

Their 0-2-1 lately in covering games. Obviously got blown out. You were done watching that game at halftime. I text you. I'm like, oh, it got worse. First quarter. Yeah, it was bad. Life's short.

You don't need to watch your team get humiliated. The Eagles, DVOA-wise, they're sitting at 11, Washington all the way at 25. Wow. Yeah, the Eagles being able to run the football has been very well. I mean, they're one of the best teams in the NFL at running the football. And I do wonder if they just kind of give it to Washington the entire game. But we really can't take the hook here.

We've determined we're not taking the hooks anymore. Yeah, you're definitely not taking the Eagles here. They have had a really remarkably soft schedule you know they've beaten gilbert grape and the combo of glennon and from the week before they beat the jets uh they lost to the giants four weeks ago um this they played the saints they played they beat up on denver they had a they had a real quarterback that week i'm pretty sure teddy played that week um so they've they've gotten a little bit lucky with their schedule and like they're going to be the team probably that sneaks into the playoffs i can't tell whether the eagles are like this amazing story for this season like i don't think

anyone figured they would even be competitive you know people are still saying they should be in the mix for a quarterback next season but they've got like they've got a nice young player i think it hurts yeah so this is either the like cool the eagles are in the playoffs can't wait to bet against them or the meltdown comes and you know the resilient riveras come back but i don't even want to think about this game all right let's move on then all right so tampa is playing in new york um my god theets are plus 12 and a half, although this one keeps sliding around, so I'm going to look at the latest number here.

Are we... What are we doing here? It's 13 now. Oh, Lord. Nothing. We're not doing anything. What are we going to do? We're not taking the Jets.

Well, look, you're not taking Tampa. We're ruling that out. Right, but this feels like a Jets first half play if you want to bet this game. Before Tampa overwhelms them. Tampa's playing for something. The Jets are not. Tampa's just beat up with COVID and injuries

and coach ain't there. They have other issues. How do the Bucs overwhelm anyone right now? My main take for this game, the Bucs are going to be down evans godwin darden they're down shack barrett now there's down fortinet that all these injuries are going to catch up with tampa at some point this is not the statement game this is the like hey we got to get to the playoffs like i get that they have to play for something. The Jets have been a little frisky.

I mean, I know they beat the Jags last week and it wasn't particularly encouraging, but I don't think that this is going to be a blowout. Last week, the Bucs did blow out Carolina, but they've lost even more players since then. Their secondary's banged up.

I just feel like the Bucs, Bruce Arians isn't going to coach probably because of COVID. I just feel like the bucks bruce arians isn't gonna coach probably because of covid like i just feel like the bucks just need to get out of this with a win and getting plus 13 for the jets i don't think is a bad play it's just like that sucks like why would we ever do that i mean you're probably right but like it's but what if like the the team a defensive line just like just dominates this game like i just it's very possible i it's not what i want to take but if if you're in a pick and pull i i do think the jets are uh the jets are the right side all right i'm not we're not doing it though jets have 23 guys on the covet list bucks have five yeah god it's this covet thing you like

think you have a sense of these teams then you're're like, wait a second. So, yeah, I think we just got to pass that. All right, let's next up here. This is a great game. Dolphins and Titans. The Titans are three and a half point favorites. I was hoping we could see this with Titans minus three to spoil which side I'm on. How do the Titans keep doing this? Because they have a good coach and they're a physical ass team, man.

Like last week, remember, we both kind of like Tennessee on Thursday. We ended up not taking it. But yeah, I mean, they're good. Like we talked a lot of crap about their defense. They have a pretty stout front seven. They have a good pass rush. And they have a good coach. Every year we act surprised when they show up december and beat the hell out of teams here's the dolphins seven game win win

streak you ready yep let's hear it beat the texans by eight good start beat the beat up ravens by 12 at home short week yep beat the jets by seven blew the panthers out congratulations beat the Jets by seven, blew the Panthers out. Congratulations. Beat the Giants by 11, beat the Jets by seven, and beat the Saints with Ian Book on Monday night. The Titans are totally the play here. Yeah. Yeah, I hate the hook,

but I really like Tennessee. I hate the hook too, but Vegas knows that if it gets to three, every person is banging the Tennessee Titans here. Yep. So, I mean, the hook sucks, but I think we're banging the Tennessee Titans here. Yep. So, I mean, the hook sucks, but I think we're on the right side here. And it's better to have the hook at home than it is on the road.

Oh, for sure. I get to host you this game like 27 to 10, and the commentary afterwards is like, well, maybe the Dolphins weren't actually that good. Yeah, I mean, I do feel like this is the week where a few of those teams kind of run into something. This still getting by the way 89 of the money 64 of the bets so this this actually will probably keep moving i'm kind of curious what the number becomes what the contest number is i'm kind of curious what normally you know sometimes they're obviously off we're taking three and a half we're taking three and a half i can't imagine contest numbers at three but it could be very well

four two it's probably gonna be yeah it's probably gonna get up to four yeah i guess usually they predict it all right let's get to the next game because you see julio jones on the covet list by the way it's like is that guy like the worst signing of the entire like curtis samuel may argue with that but julio jones has really been a disaster for them um you were about to tee up this next game it's Jacksonville at New England's oh god the Patriots are favored by 15 and a half which I think is just like they're just like how high can we set this for anyone on earth to take the Jaguars I'm still not buying it I mean the Patriots are gonna win this game by a million right are they I don't know if I want to I don't know if I want to wager on

this game but I think they're gonna win this game by a lot. This is like my favorite fake sharp take of the week is like, well, it's Belichick against a rookie. You got to take it no matter what the line is. I'm not worried about that. He's Belichick 22 and 6 against rookies, but only 14 and 12 against spread, I think. This game opened, I believe, at five and a half or where the look ahead lined.

Five and a half and it went up to 15? No, that's an action. That must be wrong. That can't be right. But yeah, this is not a game we can play. a half or the look ahead line five and a half and it went up to 15 oh no that's actually that must be wrong that must be right um but yeah i this is not a game we can play no um yeah i no i just don't i don't think the pats are beating anyone by that much uh no thank you um i also don't even want to watch a second of that game okay ra, Raiders at Colts. Good game. Worth talking about the COVID protocol here because this line has been on a roller coaster ride. It was in the seven range

and then it dropped a bunch because Carson Wentz, who's unvaccinated, right? He said he has COVID, but now apparently he can test out of it and return, which is a major shift in policy. I mean, I guess I'm curious what you think about that. Well, the CDC changed their guidelines. That's why they changed what they're doing.

This game was, I think, an 8, 8.5, and now it's a 6.5. I think Colts should have played 6.5. I think they take advantage of this, right? Because we don't really – we kind of joke about the Colts, but the Raiders can't score. I keep mentioning this to you guys. They scored over 17 points only one time in their last eight games. So, like Raiders can't score. I keep mentioning this to you guys. They scored over 17 points only one time in the last eight games. So they can't score.

This game will be 24-17, 24-16, 24-14, 21-14. Now, if Wentz doesn't play, I don't want any part of this. But if Wentz does play, I think six and a half with the Colts is totally the play here that's interesting I my read is like this is a really tricky game to handicap because we don't know what the deal is with Wentz I think this assumed this line assumes he'll play you know he might not test out of it like he might not be able to play and the Raiders meanwhile have an outbreak on defense uh Denzel Perryman looks like he's going to miss this game. It's got the same situation.

Excuse me. Last week, the Raiders defense was actually quite good. They held Chubb to under 100. Yeah, it was one of the better games. Yeah. Yeah. So to me, I would actually probably lean on just grabbing the points here. But the concern, I mean, the other thing is Darius Leonard is coming off of COVID.

We've seen a lot of these guys when they come off the COVID list, like the next week is not anyone's best week. That certainly will be the case for Carson Wentz if he plays. The Raiders, by the way, are like lingering in this playoff mix. I know. They've weirdly been pretty good against the run lately. I feel like I'm leaning Raiders, which is kind of a crazy thing to say

because they're the Raiders. But I don't know. I think we're on different sides here. Yeah, let's stay away from this one because I think we have better ones. All right, let's do the next game. Let's just do it. You'll say your piece on what side you want to be on, and I'll say my piece on the other side.

So just go ahead, buddy. Well, I mean, Jeff, the, the chiefs, well, it's chiefs bangles. The bangles are five point home dogs. I've seen this one. Actually,

I just want to check here to see if this is moved because this kept bouncing around. It's either going to be five or five and a half. It's five and a half in some books. You and I were texting about this one before the bangles game was even over last week because you had to feel for it. What do you think?

The nicest way possible. The Bengals will get their asses kicked. Just letting you guys know right now. Here's why. Let me explain this to you guys. Okay. So, so far this season, the Bengals have played well.

They faced the worst pass defenses in the NFL according to Football Outsiders. The worst. Okay. They've taken advantage of these bad pass defenses. Before the Ravens game, and they've scored now 41 points twice this season. Excuse me, three times this season. Okay. Three times. They've scored against the Ravens, the Ravens, and the Steelers. The other high-scoring games, Raiders, Lions. The previous three games to the Ravens game, they scored a whopping 15 points against the Broncos, 23 against the 49ers, and 22 against the Chargers.

They're not the scoring machine that we give them credit for. Their offensive DVOA is 19th right now, not the offense that we think it is. We get intoxicated by these big games they have when in fact they played really bad defenses and they're taking advantage of a broke Ravens team who they've scored 82 points on so far this season, but not against anyone else. Every time this season, the Bengals are talked about as, oh my God, look at the Bengals. They lose to the Jets, get blown out by the Browns,

lose to the Chargers. So far this season, they've been, as of right now, I'm going to make sure, I'm going to look at the playoff standings just to make sure I have this right. Obviously, the playoff standings kind of waver up and down. Okay. So I believe they've beaten zero playoff teams at the moment. They have lost the good team. They've beaten the Ravens twice, not in the playoffs.

Steelers, Broncos, Lions, Jags, and Vikings. They've lost to the best teams they've played. Browns, Chargers, Niners. And those games, by the way, those three games weren't even close. The overtime game against the Niners was close. The Niners just kind of blew that down the stretch. The Chiefs are used to this moment, Matt.

They're used to playing big games on the road, needing to win. There's going to be no panic on their side. And have you noticed they're playing better than they might have played in 2019 down the stretch. Defensively, they are killing it right now. And the Bengals interior offensive line is awful. Joe Burrow gets hit every single game.

I just think this game is going to be like one team priming for a Super Bowl run and one team learning how to win. I'm not sure I want to put Kansas City here minus a five. I'm not sure it's a great wager according to kind of how we do things. But Matt, I find it hard to believe the Bengals are going to keep this game close.

I mean, you're well-armed to make this case. It's funny. I just like, I don't have a strong feel either side. Like, for what it's worth um the sharp guys are hammering the the Bengals plus five and a half the tickets are split um but the money is about is about 80 20 um to the Bengals at the plus five and a half it's gonna be interesting where this line goes to um a couple of things you mentioned the Bengles schedule i want to pull up the chiefs the chiefs have been very good this season but on the road they haven't had like a very

they haven't had a great win on the road yet that potentially could play in here they lost the ravens on the road you know they beat up on like the raiders they beat up on uh they beat the chargers in overtime i think you know i think this game is probably going to be kind of close. I don't know. I just don't really feel like I have a really strong take here. I think Kelsey is going to come off COVID. We saw what Tyreek Hill did last week coming off of COVID. He went two for 19.

So Kelsey probably won't be at full strength. If you like the Chiefs to not totally cop out here, I think you should probably take the under. The number here is, where are we at? We're at 50. If you think the Chiefs are going to win, it's probably because they shut down the Bengals offense. If this is a shootout, I think you're probably taking the Bengals

just because, like, you're saying that it's going to be, you know, back and forth. So I would say if you like Chiefs, play the under. But I don't really have a feel. And I agree, laying five against a good team in a must-win spot, right? Like if Bengals win this, they... Well, the Chiefs are also in a must-win spot too. They want the one seed.

Yeah, but I mean, this is the Bengals. This is like the biggest Bengals home game in a decade. And they've lost those games this year, though. That's my point. Yeah, but like, I mean, at some point point, though, history doesn't just keep repeating. In my opinion, it does in the first year you learn how to win. That's fair, but I'm going to go on record with one thing here. Joe Burrow, I think, is in this class of special stuff happens with this guy.

We've gone through this you and i i feel like we've been a little bit late on some of these quarterbacks like we were a little late on josh allen we were definitely late on lamar jackson i feel like this could be the like oh wow joe burrow joe burrow's arrived like it this could be the game where it's like geez they beat the chiefs like they're gonna be 10-6 or whatever their record would be after this. Couldn't you see that, too? Maybe he takes the Comeback Player of the Year award from Dak in this game. Maybe he could go into the MVP conversation.

It's possible. I don't see that happening this weekend. Well, I agree. I think the Chiefs will probably win, but I don't feel strongly enough about it to lay the five. But if you do, I mean, I'll hear you out. Right now we have one whole game, so we might have to play the Chiefs at some point.

Well, the next game I do, actually, the next two games I like. All right. God, this game. Giants at Bears. Maybe the two worst teams in the league. It's possible. The Bears are six-point favorites at home. Yeah, the Bears are going to beat them on multiple touchdowns.

I think I agree. And you know that's true because the Giants have given up. The reason they announced Joe Jones coming back before the game last week is they know they're getting their asses kicked the rest of the season. Who's quarterbacking the Giants here? Who cares? If it's Glennon, it's an autoplay on

whoever he plays. Glennon or Fromm. Those are the two choices. Well, yeah If it's Glennon, it's an auto play on whoever the play is. Glennon or Fromm. Those are the two choices. Well, yeah, it's not Jones, obviously. Interesting. Bengals 4-1 against spread with a team

with a winning record. Good one, Hank. I'm fine taking the Bears. I mean, it looks like Fields and Dalton are both potentially going to play,

but I kind of hope it's Foles. Foles is playing for something. Dalton stinks. I kind of can't believe that Dalton ever started over Foles. New York is 1-7 on the road, an average loss by 16.5 points.

And the Bears, I don't know, the Bears off a win. They played pretty hard the other day. They're still playing hard. The Giants are not. Game-winning drive, yeah. I'm with it. I'll take the Bears. That's fine. This is a great teaser game. 100%. Next up. Falcons-Bills. drive yeah i'm i'm with it i'll i'll take the bears that's fine this is a great teaser game six 100 all right all right next up falcons bills this is one you like the bills are laying 14

so god help me if you're taking the bills i am i want to fuck me dude all right let's hear it this is the right you know it's the right call atlanta is 32nd in old DVOA here. And I told you, Buffalo tends to win games against bad teams by a lot of points. They beat the Patriots, who's not a bad team, by 12. They beat the Panthers by 17. The Saints by 25. The Jets by 17. Dolphins by 15.

Chiefs by 18. Texans by 40. Washington football team by 22 22 Dolphins by 35 Those are their wins this season 12, 17, 25 17 Actually I said not 17 That's more like

22, 15 18, 40 22 and 35 Interesting Warm Dome Atlanta on the road in cold, windy Buffalo. It's funny. Now that you've laid out this case, I'm almost wondering why this line isn't higher. Like, I was like, I thought like, well, you know, the Falcons, like, they're decent.

And the Falcons have played much better on the road this year, too, do you want a fun stat here here we go you ready um point differential okay so Buffalo's nine and six they're plus 163 they just mentioned all the wins they had Atlanta is um where are they they're seven eight they're two games back of Atlanta uh Buffalo minus 122 point differential. I got to be honest, Jeff. I did not think that this was going to be in the mix. I didn't prepare much here because I was just like, well, we're not going to lay 14.

But the only caution I'd say is the Bills, they've lost six times this season. Five of them have come after a win by double digits. So maybe they get a little bit up for, you know, they won a huge game last week. Maybe this is a little bit of a letdown spot but this is also could be the josh allen like hey i'm still an mvp conversation uh kind of week i guess we'll put the maybes for now yeah let's see if we can find anything else because there aren't a ton of games i'm looking ahead at that i'm like yeah that's one this might be one of them the rams are going to baltimore

lamar jackson did practice today, even though he was reportedly limping around. So the Ravens are plus three and a half at home to the Rams. What do you think? Who do you like in this game? I just think you take Lamar plus three and a half against anyone at home.

But he was, they showed up in practice, they couldn't even run. I mean. Like, we can't bet this on Wednesday. I'm good with putting it in the maybes for later in the week. On Wednesday, I can't run with Lamar right now. I mean, Tyler Huntley's covered three games too, I guess, if he's off the COVID list by kickoff.

Yeah, this is a different category though. They're just so beat up, man. They're so beat up. I got to say, I think... Their pass defense is so bad because they don't win healthy. Have you ever been lower on a team on a four-game win streak that's this good than the Rams? I feel like the Rams' four-game win streak,

I'm giving them no credit. I feel like... I mean, and they've beaten some good teams in there. Yeah, because they have Matt Goff playing quarterback for them. So Ben Baldwin, he's great. He puts a chart out each week for quarterback, EPA, expected points per point under Sean McVay of each week. It's just Jared Goff and Matt Stafford.

And right now, each season, the quarterbacks start out good. Like their EPA is above zero. And then it just goes, each week it's progressively worse. For example, Matt Stafford this year in week eight was at.4. Now he's at.2. He's at the same point this season right now as Jared Goff was in 2017 and in 2018, the

year they made the Super Bowl. He's playing just as good as Goff was. That's it. Like, there's no difference. Except Matt Sanford makes some better throws every now and then. So I think we put the Ravens in here for now that we can make an executive decision, I guess, later

to change it. This sucks. I mean... I'm with you. Its in here for now that we can make executive decision, I guess, later to change it. Yeah. This sucks. I mean. I'm with you. It's not great right now. And the trends don't even really support my take here. The Ravens this season have not won. They've been home dogs with this spread before this year,

and they have not won. No. They're soaping up, buddy. They've lost four straight. The Rams, though, are four and six favored by over three this season. This is just like, this is one where I'm sort of like throwing out everything and saying, like, if Lamar plays Baltimore at home, this is an absolute cannot lose situation for them.

And how many, you know, are the baltimore ravens losing five straight games in december and january like i just don't see that happening so if lamar plays i think you just got to do it and trust lamar but um yeah we'll see all right buddy uh moving to the late window texans at 49ers uh the 49ers are 13 point favorites um here it is jeff my favorite game of the week oh texans shanahan terrible as a home favorite this is such a gift they're 7 15 and 1 under shanahan the niners are as a home favorite against the spread they're two and four this year as a home favorite jimmy garoppolo not going to play in this game if he does play even better to do all his injuries

trey lance in this spot laying almost two touchdowns against houston who's playing hard they should hopefully get uh cooks back he's he's uh he was just ill last week with non-covid he should be back um texans have won two straight as a dog. I just think this is an obvious Houston spot, and I just can't believe that the 49ers are favored by this much. I'm in, buddy. I've told you that I have too many times this year said I'm not taking your favorite pick because I didn't like it.

I have no thoughts on this game. Your favorite pick tends to win each week because you text me on Sunday to be like, hey, my favorite pick won again. So I'm in on your favorite pick, buddy. Let's do it. Texans plus 13 against the Niners. Yeah, plus 500 on the money line too. That's worth a little bit of a sprinkle, I think.

Yeah, I mean, good luck to Trey Lance. The Broncos are at the Chargers. Speaking of odd quarterbacks, Drew Locke is back. It looks like at the time we're recording this, Teddy Bridgewater is out. And the Chargers are favored by five and a half. Do you have a feel? No.

Gross. I don't know what to do with the charters man vegas zone game chargers i think we just passed this one but i have nothing here i the chargers are the most frustrating team in the whole league they always are each year each year doesn't change i there's i i i stared at this line for a while um because i i'm really of the opinion that a winning strategy is betting against Drew Locke. But I just don't trust them, to be honest. We did last week, but yeah, the Chargers cannot be trusted.

Yeah, Denver last week got nothing going on the grounds. That will not be the case this week after Rex Burkhead towards the Chargers last week. Unbelievable. I don't know. I guess this is a pass, right? Yeah, it's certainly a pass, yes. All right.

Moving to, God, Carolina at the Saints. The Saints are laying six and a half with the expectation that Taysom Hill is back this week. Is the play just to fade the Panthers at all costs now? Is that where we are? But the Saints,

what are the Saints playing for, though? I mean, they're not really playing for anything right now. I mean, they just have a better coach. They're technically still alive, right? Yeah, I guess they're 7-8. They're still playing for a playoff spot. Panthers are 5-10. Panthers just are going... I've been telling you guys to fade them for weeks now.

They scored the last five years, 21-10, 21-14-6. The Saints are such a weird team, man. They've, remember, I mean, two weeks ago. They're really good defensively, though. Yeah, two weeks ago, they shut out the Bucs in Tampa when Tampa had everyone healthy.

That feels like 100 years ago. And then a month ago, they lost by 30 to the Bills on Thanksgiving in that game where they just have such a strange season. I think that this is a pretty good number for them. But everyone has a kind of ugly picture of the Saints in their mind. Buying them off of a nationally televised loss feels kind of okay. Gosh, this could be the Camara fantasy title week if anyone is still alive with him after last week.

What do you think? You put a maybes or more toward the yes? I don't know. Do you feel anything to this game? These games suck this week. I don't feel anything here because I feel a lot better about the next game. Let's talk about that um this is detroit at seattle uh for some reason seattle's favored by seven i assume you like the lions yeah what's going on here matt i don't understand this at all

at all uh seattle season's done like they're they're they're done. Detroit bows their ass off each freaking week. That's why they're 12-5 against the spread. They're 6-1 the last seven games. They're 5-1 the last six as a road dog. We're just covered in Atlanta. We don't need them to win this game. To me, this is a 100% play on the Lions here. Getting a full touchdown.

Yeah, this is a very surprising line. Detroit 5-3 against the spread on the road. 0-7-1 straight up on the lines here. Getting a full touchdown. Yeah, this is a very surprising line. Detroit 5-3 against the spread on the road. 0-7-1 straight up on the road. So maybe a decent one to tease Seattle down 7. I'll put up a teaser last week. I'm not teasing Seattle anymore. Yeah, Seattle stinks. They're 0-1 at home against the spread this year,

favored by 7 or more. Detroit's kind of built for this late-season football, right? Like, great offensive line. They figured something out with the rushing attack. Don't tell them that they're out of the playoffs. Like they feel like they've manned a little Texans Lions Moneyline parlay. That could be a little bit tasty. I don't know.

Like 10 to 1, 12 to 1. I like it. I like it. Yeah. I like let's do Detroit. I feel like, by the way, they've gone on like two runs this season where they've like been incredible against the spread they've gone like six and one against the spread now they're five and one against spread or whatever in their last six and we've always

picked the one so hopefully we're not hopefully we're not chasing it here i know that's a terrible game this should be a better one the cardinals are going to dallas uh the cowboys are laying five and a half after a 700 point win over my decrepit washington football team do you have an opinion here yeah i don't like myself for it because i feel like it's too easy that's the cowboys and that's why i don't want to do it feels too easy buddy we talk about this often on this show the cardinals stink in the second half of the season under kingsbury they They've stunk. They continue to stink. I don't know what would change under Kingsbury now. The three years, games one through seven in Arizona,

he is 15-5-1. Games later in the season, after week seven, he's 8-18. I don't know why this game would be close, but Dallas is such a square play, it's going to hurt me to the bone, but they're number one DVOA right now. Arizona's falling fast. I just don't see Arizona keeping this game close.

Interesting. So Dallas, very good at home this season, 5-2 against the spread. And I think both of their non-covers, I think, have been at home. Let me just check that before I say it. Yeah, they got blown up by the Broncos, right? Yeah, they're 12-3 against the spread this year. Oddly, Kingsbury, we mentioned his trends.

If you like his trends, he's 80% as a road dog in his career. He's 12-3-2 against the spread as a road dog. He's 17-7-2 against the spread as a dog, but he's way better as a road dog. I actually think, so the Cardinals, one caveat, if James Conner is out, then all of a sudden the Cardinals just kind of have nobody to play with on offense. But I kind of think that they're a decent bounce back play here.

Obviously, everyone is higher on Dallas than they've ever been. Everyone's lower on Arizona than they've ever been. I don't think these two teams are that far apart, although it could just be that the Cardinals fall apart without hopkins i don't know but i kind of like uh i kind of like the cards plus five and a half i i we're not we're staying away that we're not waiting on the cardinals fair enough all right moving to sunday night uh vikings packers um the packers are laying six and a half they are undefeated at home home this season. The Vikings are atrocious. Should we just enjoy taking Aaron Rodgers at home or do you want to make another case?

No, I mean, it is the play to make. The problem is the last two weeks, they've kind of just been lackluster stopping the run and they just haven't covered because they've been lazy at the end of games. How much do we take that into account with what they've done all season? Sure. Having said that, Rodgersgers covers 65 of his games at home this is a sunday night game kirk cousins prime time i don't even have the stat in front of me because we all know that he sucks

green bay getting under a touchdown here adam thielen just went on the ir uh cook is what's the list of cook cook activated activated off COVID list, but that usually means, as we've said, he's going to need a little bit of time to get all the way back. And it looks like Jair Alexander's back this week for the Packers. He's activated. I don't get why this isn't 7.5. I kind of feel like

I don't know who is going to take the Vikings in this. My guess is there are just sharp people. The Vikings are high in the power ratings. Yeah, and if it touches 7, maybe they'll bet it. I think we're getting really good value with Green Bay here. I think so, too. I'm good with that. God, I mean, the Vikings just suck, man.

Every single week, you're like, oh, the Vikings, and they just blow it. I'm cool with putting Green Bay in the mix here. All right, the Monday night game is Cleveland at Pittsburgh. Is this right? The Browns are favored by three and a half on the road. Yeah, we're just not doing this one. Can I please make the Steelers case? You can make it.

I know what case you're going to make. The problem is we have a lot of plays we like now. And I just don't know if the Steelers are going to make our top five. But go ahead. Why are the Browns favored by three and a half over anyone? The Browns are five and three at at home two and five on the road the steelers are five and two at home two and five on the road they're gonna win this game i think pittsburgh is just an absolute mess dude this is rothlisberger's last home game probably ever he's 17

and one at home in his career against the browns you You think the Steelers, we've talked how many times have we talked about Mike Tomlin as a home underdog? This is a definite Steelers play. This is certainly like this better, I think, than Green Bay. Do you think the Steelers three and a half at home?

What are we doing? This game's going to be like six to four. This game is like no one's gonna score in this the Steelers aren't gonna lose at home and Monday night on Roethlisberger's last home game like come on all right I dude I think the Steelers are just done so buddy um the Browns aren't the Browns suck the Browns are still one of the North they're two wins away from the North championship yeah you know that right yeah but they got to play since next week yeah and they've already beat them this year um well here's what we have so far let's talk this through we have tennessee

minus three and a half chicago minus six buffalo minus 14 houston plus 13 detroit plus seven green bay pits we got seven games on a slate we did not like so who are we throwing out i mean buffalo laying 14 is is not my favorite chicago laying anything to anyone is not my favorite but they are i get it they're playing the giants and they suck so do you want to roll i mean do we roll the steelers and throw out the bears out i mean do we throw it like are we can we like we love buffalo enough to like two touchdowns with them? I mean, that's... No, I mean, I could put Green Bay in there instead.

I'm fine with that. Well, let's... Can we work the other way and just say what our favorites are? I think Houston's one of mine. Detroit, I think we both really like. Yeah, so I like Detroit. We like Houston. Let's lock those.

I mean, I do like Buffalo. I've laid the big numbers with Buffalo at home recently. It's paid off. I mean, it's your show. Make the call on Buffalo. I mean, you like... So we like Detroit, Houston. I think we both like Green Bay, right?

I like Green Bay. And you like Pittsburgh? Is it one of your favorites? So we have four in if we have Houston, Detroit, Green Bay, and Buffalo that we're choosing between Tennessee, Chicago, Pittsburgh. Well, I mean, that could be talked out of Buffalo,

but what are your favorites? I mean, I just think there's no way that Cleveland's beating Pittsburgh. I just think there's no chance. I disagree. I disagree a lot on that one. And I also don't like winning.

I don't like... Have we played many of my night games this year? I mean, we played one last week. It did not go very well for us. And I also don't like waiting. I don't like... Have we played many Monday night games this year? I mean, we played one last week. It did not go very well for us. No, we did. We swapped it out for Washington, which didn't do any better. Weren't they the Monday night game last week?

No. No, that was Saints. Yeah, sorry. They were Sunday night. Yeah. We did hit the Monday night game. We kind of left Tennessee. We liked them a lot earlier in the show.

I'm cool with Chicago. I mean, I'm... Right, I think Chicago's good too. All right, so let's play Chicago. So Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Green Bay, and we need one more. So the one more is between Tennessee, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh.

I'm going to play all these seven in my contest. I need seven picks in my contest. So we'd have to figure out the two that we're doing for this contest. So it's basically between Buffalo and Pittsburgh. Is that what you're saying? And Tennessee. Yeah. Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Tennessee.

Well, I mean, I'm sure like half of these guys are, unfortunately, there's going to be another COVID situation. We're going to have to change it anyway. We could just leave it open until Friday and tweet out what we like. Well, let's make a decision for now. And we obviously, as always, reserve the right to change based on the news. I would say I don't have a strong feel on Buffalo, but that play makes sense to me. You've heard me on Pittsburgh.

Your choice. You're the one who gets paid to make this show. I do. I'm the one whose money I use to put in the contest, too. I'm going to put Buffalo for now. I just, I got to, I can change my mind to Steelers. I just think the Steelers are just done, man. It's not fun to bet on them.

I feel like every week I come out here and I'm like, all right, guys, it's time to bet Pittsburgh. Like, I seriously feel like I do it every single week and it's uh i don't like doing it but yeah all right let's say all right so we got for now chicago detroit houston green bay buffalo cool all right we did it guys we're powered by the varsity podcast network Hope you have a great New Year's. Enjoy the College Bowl playoffs. Enjoy the NFL weekend. We're making a run, Matt. We're doing it well.

And remember, at Jeff Schwartz on Twitter, when I post a link for the podcast, I, again, will tweet out if we change. Because if COVID happens, we might change all this stuff as we did last week with the Saints. It didn't matter. We lost our other pick we switched to. But we're just about to do that.

All right, guys. Have a great weekend. Talk to you guys on We lost our other pick. We switched to. But we reserved right to do that. All right, guys. Have a great weekend. Talk to you guys on Monday. Hey, one last thing, Jeff. The Maryland Terrapins are up 47-10 in the pinstripe bowl right now. Let's go! Woo!