Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - NFC and AFC East Season Win Totals and Prop Bets

Episode Date: August 12, 2021

Geoff is joined this week by Matt Ford to preview their AFC East and NFC East team win total predictions with bonus prop bet picks. They delve into a potential Comeback Player of the Year Candidate, discuss if any team can unseat the Bills atop the AFC East, and talk about just how bad the Jets might be this season. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday august 12th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt for and this is jeff schwartz is smartly you guys football is finally back we're past the hall of fame game by the time you listen to this your favorite team might be playing the preseason we have hard knocks already done episode one down and dusted and now we're getting you ready for the football season this week's episode we're focusing on the afc and nfc east we're going to go over previews, predictions, gambling, odds. We're going to have so much fun with this and a little housekeeping. Moving forward, we're going back to two episodes a week like we had during the season. We'll go Tuesday and Thursday.

I want to get you ready for the season. Matt Ford, how are you, buddy? I'm awesome, Jeff. This is my favorite. These are my favorite shows of the year because it's the way to sort of like get myself acclimated a little bit uh to talk about every team in the league which is a rare thing like during the season we forget about most of these teams because we just have to um this is my favorite thing and we're starting with you know the division that we care about the most in the nfc east and truly one of the most interesting in the afc east too so i'm excited so here's how

we're going to do this guys guys. We're going to have a thousand dollars per division to spend. Okay. So that's $8,000 total over the, across the eight divisions. And we're going to tackle an extra 2000 to make it round up to 10,000. So we can throw that on. If we just love something, we could use an extra $2,000 on a prop. We're going to sort of try to agree on these, right? Sort of like the super contest during the season where we say, Hey, look, you know, Matt says, I like this. I say, I like this. We say, I don't know if we like, you know, like we're going to go back and forth. We're going to figure out props we do like, and we'll get you ready for the season. It's,

it's that simple. And, uh, I am super excited for this. Like, like, like Matt said, it gets us kind of in the right mindset for the season. We'll do this all the way up to the start of the season. We'll have all eight divisions. And then the night before the opening game on September 9th, we'll put out an episode on the 8th, getting you ready for everything, right? Like Super Bowl, Rookie of the Year, Player of the Year, MVP, kind of any final predictions if injuries have happened or trades have happened. Maybe Deshaun Watson goes somewhere, maybe Justin Fields or Trey Lance is starting now, right, Matt?

And we changed our idea on something. So we'll get you plenty covered as we move forward into the 2021 NFL season. It was great to see the Hall of Fame game back with some fans. It was great to see Hard Knocks. And, Matt, I'm ready to go with this NFC East here. Remember, $1,000 to spend here. Let's go the NFC East. Do you want to start with the favorite to win the division

or do you want to start with your favorite team? Which one do you want to go with? Let's go. Let's start with, why don't we go in order of the win totals? So why don't we start with Dallas? They are projected, their total total and we're using i believe we're using draft kings right so we're gonna say that uh all these lines are current there as of today which is august 11th um when we're recording this so dallas right now is projected for nine

wins uh the over is is uh juice to minus 140 the under plus 115. They're plus 130 to win the division. Definitely the prohibited favorite in the eyes of the books. Jeff, why don't we start with you? What do you think of Dallas and their nine wins? So I am very high on Dallas this year, which could be a mistake because I was very high on them last year as well. My favorite stat, Matt, in almost all of football is that there has not been a repeat winner in the NFC East in 2004.

We talk a lot about this. Right. So for Washington to repeat, they have to break a trend, which really, I mean, I don't even know if that is a viable trend. It just lets you know that there's a lot of competition every year in this division. Right. And look, we've seen three Super Bowl winners out of this division in that time. Right. The Giants twice and the Eagles. And so nonetheless, we have not had repeat winners in the NFC East. And the reason I like the Cowboys to go over their number, and this is the slight hesitation with Dak's, you know, lat injury or whatever, is they have the best quarterback in the division.

Hands down, right? Do you agree on that, Matt? Yes. Best quarterback. If their offensive line is healthy, which it appears it is, they have the second best offensive line, maybe the first offensive line in the division. They have the best skill position players in the division. Now, defensively is where they have to get a little bit better.

And maybe I'm intoxicated after hard knocks, but Micah Parsons seems like legit. He seems like he's really good. And the thing about defense is we saw them improve at the back half of last year. But typically, there's more variance year to year in defense and offense, right? If you're a top offense, you stay good throughout your time with that quarterback and coordinator. But we know this, Matt. Defense, one year, you're one. One year, you're 15.

The next year, you're back up to eight. And the bottom is true as well, where you can be 32 one year. And the next year, you're 16 to up to eight and and the bottom is true as well where you can be 32 one year and the next year you're 16 just kind of it goes you add pieces there you change your d coordinator so if they're just average on defense average on defense matt 15th on defense 16th on defense they'll have a top five offense if they're healthy and so i think over nine wins is the is the play i would make here um i put a little bit of money on this but i actually like a couple other bets around the Cowboys better than, than, you know, than their win total. Interesting. Well, I'm curious to hear those.

It pains me to say it, Jeff, but I, as a, as a Washington fan, but I'm with you. I like Dallas is over. I also think if you like Dallas is over now's the time before the hard knocks boost, which is inevitable um and their number will will inevitably uh go up i'll say this about dallas in addition to co-signing pretty much everything you you said there um last year dallas was uh one of the unhealthiest teams in the league they were the 28th according to to Sharp Football. Their defense, you mentioned already, should improve quite a bit. By losing Mike Nolan, it kind of doesn't matter who they've gained,

but they got Dan Quinn, who has a good track record despite his stint in Atlanta's head coach. You mentioned Parsons. I think there's one other thing when it comes to betting Dallas. Dallas, in the last two decades, has exceeded their win totals fewer than any time than any team in the league other than the jaguars so i think that people are just a little bit tired of getting burned by dallas uh every year because the expectations are generally a little bit higher

than they should be but now it feels like it's kind of in the other direction it's not like dac prescott is coming back from an unprecedented injury. He should be able to recover and play well. And obviously, this to spoiler alert, my rest of my NFC division preview a bit. They play Philly and the Giants twice. Like that should be three wins easily right there. And they play the NFC South through like, you know, what are the Falcons? What are the Saints? What are the Panthers?

They should be a team that can outscore almost any team in the league. So I agree. I think they're good for double-digit wins, and I'm comfortable laying some money on this over. Yeah, and they also don't have a first-place schedule, right, because they were bad in the division last year. So, look, they have the Chiefs. They'll be a tough out. The Saints could be a tough out. But their schedule is not that bad.

Look, the first two weeks of the year are pretty tough, right? And Tampa Bay at San Diego, excuse me, at Los Angeles. This is a situation, by the way, where you might get a better number for a lot of these odds after week two, right? You might get a better number for their win total. You might get a better number for winning the division, which I think that's where the money's at here, right? The division's plus 130 right now. If we assume they're going to get over that nine-win total, they're going to win the division most likely, right, Matt? And do you want to lay the 140,

or do you want to take plus 130 on the Cowboys to win the division? I think that's a good way to play that. Plus 130 for a future that ties up some of your bankroll for the whole season feels like maybe not my favorite kind of play. So I don't know. But I think that would be the way to play that. But if we're betting on the Cowboys here, would you rather bet on the win total and lay minus 140? Or would you rather take the playoffs at plus 130 when the outcome, if they win 10 games, do you expect them to win 10 games and not win the division?

No, I think that's smart. I think that would be the way to play this if we want to play Dallas over. So how much? I'm thinking if we bet $250 on this out of the $1,000 for the division, we'll win $325. I mean, it feels like that's maybe the way to go here. Yeah, let's mark that for now. I'm with you there.

Okay. And there's other Cowboys. Do you want to get and there's other cowboys do you want to get to my favorite prop or do you want to wait till the end for player props well i think it's we've talked about this before and frankly like this is going to be the most important thing we say on this show so why don't you get it out of the way now uh the dak press i come back player of the year award yes yeah okay this this feels too easy and i i don't i feel like i'm missing something here it's plus 210 this is the most way in my personal life this is the most money i've wagered any bet heading into any season um matt i i don't know how this

loses unless he gets hurt again right so you're basically betting against a quarterback getting hurt two years in a row which is very uncommon for a franchise quarterback. If he has his average season, right? An average season for him, he is winning comeback player of the year going away. It's not even close. He plays on America's team, first of all, right? He is very liked around the NFL. And if you watch Hard Knocks in episode one,

it's very clear why he's liked. His last healthy season, right? Completed 65% of passes, 4,900 yards, 30 touchdowns. Even last year, in just five games, he had almost 2,000 yards and nine touchdowns and four interceptions. Like, he's going to win Comeback Player of the Year if he's healthy. And to me, we use this extra bankroll that we have, the $2,000, and we use some of that. Or we could use the division money on this, but this has to be wagered on. I agree.

could use the division money on this but this has to be wagered on i i agree um these odds by the way from from the other markets i've looked at uh the draft kings odds we're getting are plus you said a 210 that's pretty good i don't get plus 210 yeah yeah i didn't either um i've put some i've put some money on this too um and i think that at that number it's a no-brainer let's uh let's put let's let's figure out the exact number at the end of this. But yeah, I'm in, obviously. The limit on my offshore was $25 for this bet. And I bet it multiple times so I can get it. Like, that's how much I think they believe this could possibly hit, right?

The exposure there is pretty high on this. I mean, the other option of course is is joe burrow but i just he's gonna have to outplay dak prescott i don't see happening also comeback implies returning to form like we've never seen joe burrow at at the level that would you know allow for us to say he had a comeback the one to me that i feel like could really could could jump in is christian mcafree christian mcafree is a future hall of famer if if everything goes according to you know the trajectory he's on if he comes out and has like a eric dickerson you know derrick henry type season after an injury and dac is just like okay i could see mcafree running away with it

um same i guess with barkley but you know the odds are a little bit smaller there, I think, because he hasn't had the track record McCaffrey has. But I'm with you here. This one is – I made us say this a little bit earlier because I think this is an important one for people to get while they have some time and before Hard Knocks takes off. I'm in agreement with you there. All right, you want to go to your Washington football team?

Your win total is eight and a half. Eight and a half split evenly minus 110 for the over and the under plus 230 to win the division. Plus odds to make the playoffs here. Plus 135. Yes. To make the playoffs. No minus 175, which I find kind of interesting given that their number is exactly at 500. Where are you here?

Yeah, this is kind of a stay-away team for me because I don't quite know what I'm getting at the quarterback. I know Fitzmagic is a lot of fun. I know over the years that he's been great in kind of these relief roles, Matt, but he's the starting quarterback now. Like it's not a relief role. And his career when he's been counted on to kind of be the guy, just really hasn't been the guy very often. And I think they've done a great job of building this roster up.

Their defense is fabulous. Their defensive line is best in the NFL. They have all the pieces in place. But it's hard for me to wager on a team that I just don't trust their quarterback. I think I agree. I'm leaning over here. I mean, I'm obviously biased, but I think with the Fitzpatrick point,

the counter to that would be last year, they started Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, Alex Smith on one leg and Taylor Heineke. And this year, if Fitzpatrick is even, you know, it's the same argument you made with the Dallas defense if he's even adequate uh they're a real threat you know you look at the rest of the roster and suddenly like they've got a pretty interesting backfield they've got a pretty good offensive

line they have a really good receiving core and their defense I love this about them that they sort of didn't rest on their laurels on defense they went out and signed arguably the top corner in free agency who was actually available in william jackson they drafted a middle linebacker in the first round when everyone's sort of thinking oh did they maybe reach for a mac jones if they didn't like him whatever um they really attacked their team and and the other argument for them is they have by far the best coach in this division um you look at we've talked a lot on this show about washington's vaccination rate that's a reason maybe to take the under but the thing that i've really noticed is ron rivera made it a priority coming into to camp uh to get

more players vaccinated they were at like 50 in july and now they're at like 86 which is somehow one of the worst in the league but i think it's because ron rivera made a case that actually convinced a lot of people which if we've watched anything happen uh in this country in the last couple years like that's kind of amazing um to convince that many people who on this issue where people have made up their minds so that's a long way of saying I think Ron Rivera is a special coach and a special leader. This team is loaded at everywhere but quarterback, which is a little bit of a mystery. So I think it's a stay away too. But if I had to make a wager, it would slightly be the over.

I think there's a better wager to make if we're going to wager on the Washington football team. Antonio Gibson, who I really like coming out of Memphis, he did some great stuff there. His total yards this year, rushing plus receiving yards, is 1,300.5. That's not a lot of yards for him. Last year, his scrimmage yards, he had just over 1,000 scrimmage yards in just 14 games, and he only started 10. He only carried the ball 170 times, and he got 36 receiving catches out of 44 targets. If you look at where that would put him last season on this list,

if you take out like Cordell Patterson, who's a returner, I mean, 1,300 yards, there's one, there's 20 guys over 1,300 yards. I just got, I mean, Josh Jacobs was over 1,300 yards for the Raiders, and he only had 238 receiving yards. Zeke Elliott in his short time, really in that kind of bum offense, over 1,300 yards. Tony Pollard for the Cowboys had over 1, over 1300 yards i think this is where we put money it's minus 115 um is it is it too much to put 250 on this wow interesting you want to put 100 on it yeah let's do 100 i think or like to or to win 100 maybe uh maybe 115 i think yeah um last year gibson averaged almost five yards of carry um he was washington last year

dumped the ball off to their running backs quite a bit in the offense they are going to continue to do that even though alex smith is gone but remember gibson was a college wide receiver who converted to running back without training camp essentially um and people like i i've been doing a lot of prep for my fantasy drafts people are really uh i think underestimating his potential here because of like jd mckissick in the backfield but all that scott turner has ever said is like we think this guy is christian mccaffrey and look what he did with him uh in carolina so i am way in on antonio gibson this year um so i'm in favor of this all right so let's do let's do 115 to win 100 on over the 1300 yards here um anything else that that catches your your i mean

the other one that i think is kind of juicy is chase young uh to lead the league in sacks is plus 1800 that's that's rich but maybe we could throw sprinkle some money on that or even defensive player of the year plus 850 that's an interesting one i think they're you know for him to win defensive player of the year they have to have a pretty damn good season yeah that's that's my yeah the sack lead is interesting i think it's funny i kind of think montez sweat plus 2500 to lead the league and sax might be the better play because i think that like you watched last year um you know chase young got all the attention and montez sweat would just like walk up to the quarterback and he'd have a free

shot at him um that that'd be a flyer for five bucks maybe uh and on on the side but i i'm good with uh i'm good with gibson so we'll mark this down as maybe a sweat sack leader as a question mark here. I'll put this out here. We have to spend some more money. Are we going to roll over money too? Like if we don't spend all our money, can we roll over? Oh, totally.

I think we're going to find some more places to sprinkle here though. We've spent just a little bit under $350, a little over $350 so far of our 1,000 a lot of Tudors division. So, all right, well, you want to move? are we done with the washington football team i think so um we can uh yeah let's let's let's keep moving and if we want to add wow sorry i just dropped everything um if we want to add to that uh later we can we've uh we've got some that we like here let's move next

to the next team in order is the New York Giants, your former team. Seven wins is their projection. They're over. They're getting more money on the over at minus 130. The under is plus 110, plus 450 to win the division, plus 225 to make the playoffs, minus 300 to miss. I have a pretty strong feeling here, Jeff. I'm curious if you do. You go first. I'm looking up strong feeling here, Jeff. I'm curious if you do.

You go first. I'm looking up one thing here. You can go first. I'm happy to. This, to me, is a slam dunk under. Last season, I've been saying this on this show since last year, I feel like they are still getting credit for beating the Seahawks and not getting blown out by the bucks last year uh the giants are a victim of their own success this is a audio product so you can't see my air quotes but it seems like last year the giants were very happy

to go six and ten without barkley and be competitive in a bunch of games uh they are not good and not only are they not good they're relying on some repeat performances from guys who just haven't strung together a lot of success like people like blake martinez and leonard williams have a huge role in this team having some success this year and it's like are we sure we want to bet on that but in addition to to those points kenny galladay's already hurt cadarious tony didn't show up to otas and is like had a weird sort of saga joining this team to begin with this team's fighting itself in minicamp saquon barkley's a little bit doubtful to start the season and that joe judge sort of like i don't know he came in and wasn't like a total disaster even though everyone thought he might be like i think we're just putting a lot of credit on a team that was quite

bad last year and gets a lot of credit for beating you know kyle allen and duane haskins and the seahawks so i am very comfortable going under here they seem like an easy double digit loss team to me uh and i'm not scared of Daniel Jones proving me wrong. Do you agree? So I'm with you here. I obviously got on a couple of spats with Giants fans over the weekend about the judge. You know,

he made the players run sprints and pushups after a fight, which is, it's pretty juvenile in the NFL to do that. Right? Like that's crazy. And what's, there's a poor distinction here is that there's a difference between, between the mentality that fans think means you're a tough coach, old school coach, and what

in reality is an old school coach. For example, Andy Reid is an old school coach, Matt. Andy Reid hits a lot in practice, a lot in practice. He has live tackling parents in practice. He doesn't give vet days off in practice entire training camp like he's old school coach and when he says hey guys don't fight no one fights and if they do fight he just throws them out of practice or he just says guys don't do it again knock it off right but you have a Giants team whose quarterback was in the fight

how does he not understand that already there was a you know there was a preview of um not really preview hard knocks but they showed the joint practices right where the rams and cowboys and they had a fight and guess what did the quarterback go in the fight of course not because he's not stupid enough to do that like i i don't and and so i'm just i'm so curious about the obsession giants fans have with with judge who, he might be the greatest coach of all time. But to your point, Matt, they won six games last year. They beat one team with a winning record. That was Seattle.

They beat Washington, Philly, and the Bengals. Like, congratulations on those wins. Their offensive line right now is wrecked outside of maybe Andrew Thomas. And, like, it's just, it's a problem. of maybe Andrew Thomas. And like, it's just, it's a problem. And every day we see tweets about how their offensive line is struggling in practice. Do you trust Daniel Jones to do anything much this year?

I really don't. He's shown really no ability to be anything more than he is. And Jason Garrett as well. I don't really trust his offense. So I'm good with the under here. What's your um what are you willing to wager on this I feel like whatever our standard is if we're going 250 uh I'm I'm very happy to do that I think that the Giants have are one of the worst teams in the

league at quarterback you mentioned offensive line I don't think they have an advantage at head coach sorry Giants fans receiver is already a question mark i i i just don't see how they you know how they contend for the playoffs i'm willing to be wrong but i'm a little bit under juice here plus 110 to the under so 250 to win 275 um can i interest you and going back to a staple of ours uh saquon Barkley under 1,175 rushing yards. Lock, done, 1,000%. There's no world where I would say that. That's the best number I think I could find.

If you find a different number, go ahead. So what would you like to, so now we have, so much money we have left to wager in this division. It's plus 250. So we have a little under $400 left in this division uh it's plus 250 so we have a little under 400 left in this division well do you want to say well i i okay let's do let's do the eagles and come back to saquon i want to bet saquon but let's let's see we can get out of the eagles first because this is a this is a we all agree on this wager me and you do but let's get the eagles first uh win total is at

six and a half yep uh it's more favorable to bet the under here plus 110 for the under minus 130 for the over plus 550 to win the division uh heavily heavily favored to miss the playoffs the no for making the playoffs minus 350 the yes plus 275 steep numbers but i think justified jeff what do you what do you think about the eagles this year so i mean i would love to take no playoffs minus 350 i know it kind of it kind of doesn't it kind of ruins our bankroll a little bit to do that um but they're not making the playoffs this year guys um you know nick signorani feels like he was hired to just to kind of be the guy the front office can just bang on, right? Like they can kind of run, you know, they can run things through him.

Jalen Hurts, I mean, I don't know. Okay, I guess. But skill position questions, right? Defensive back questions. Good defensive line, good offensive line. I'll give him a chance. But, you know, under, so we go giants under and eagles under i mean that's why i think that that the no in the playoffs but i'm willing to go under here

if we have to spend some more money in this division it's plus 110 the it looks like i don't think the eagles will be favored in a game the look ahead lines indicate they wouldn't be favored in a game until week 15 um they have a really strange schedule where they have a buy in week 14 uh and then they wrap with four divisional games um i could see the eagles season going something like this they come out you know they play atlanta in the first week i could see them beating atlanta because it's atlanta and everyone's like oh nick sirianni like watch out for this eagles team everyone counted them out and then them having a jacksonville-esque season not where

they go 1 and 16 but where they underperform the last two years they were in the bottom uh 15 last year they were in the bottom three of least healthy teams uh at some point that's not luck that's roster construction and a habit um but know, they're counting on a total wild card at quarterback. They're weirdly old in some spots where you should be young and young in spots where you should be maybe a little more experienced. I could see this team blowing it up at the trade deadline, you know, and selling some of these guys for parts like Fletcher Cox and getting some picks for him. parts like fletcher cox and getting some picks for him they still have a zach ertz trade to make probably like i could see this team packing it up kind of early and those division games at the end of the year being kind of a kind of a cakewalk so i i think this is a pretty safe under bet and but the giants i feel i think a little more strongly about just because the number is a little bit higher so we have 385 left do you want to go how do you want to put on Saquon under rushing yards and Eagles under win total?

Why don't we do Saquon for more and Eagles for less? So like 275 and 110 or something. Okay, so let's go Eagles under six and a half, right? Under six and a half. Let's do 100 there to win 110 because i want to put a lot on barkley plus we got to throw a couple a couple nickels on this montez sweat bet i gotta save a little bit of money for that right we want to do montez sweat is that we're going with so i would rather do i'd rather hammer the barkley thing wouldn't you oh

oh fine with me okay 285 on we'll go 285 on barkley i don't i don't have the. I don't have the... I don't have the... I think it was minus 112 is what I think I saw. So we'll do minus 112. So it's 285 to win 254. That's whatever. That's fine with me. I don't mind.

I don't really mind a little bit of... Dude, this bet... We cashed big on this last year. The last two years, right? We cashed big on this? Yeah. This is a staple. Okay.

So we have our wagers. We've spent $1,000. Yep. And the only one we haven't done is a Dak Prescott comeback player of the year. Do you want to dip into... Do you want to save that one for like the end of the season preview?

We have some leftover money. Or do you want to put some money in it now let's assume that we're going to put something on it now um what do you want of the leftover thousand 500 bucks is that too much let's do 250 for now we can always add okay about that 250 okay so we got 250 on this one so we we've dipped into our reserve here to hit the Dak Prescott because I think that's – I'm with you, man. Like this is my favorite bet of the year. Yeah, it's a good one. I'm not very good with math, so you've got to give me a second.

So that's to win 625. Yeah, I think something like that. No, I found it all at the calculator. I have to use my brain. We're doing a lot of math here. I'm going to quickly reset before we move to the AFC. So we've got six bets that are in. Yes.

We've got Dallas over their nine wins at minus one 40. We've got the giants under seven. We've got Dallas division, Dallas division. That's correct. Dallas division, my mistake. Dallas division. And that is plus what? 130.

It's 250 to win 325. Cool. We've got the Giants under seven. We've got Antonio Gibson over a collective 1300 yards. We've got Saquon under 1175, just rushing. We've got the Eagles under six and a half. And we've got Dak to win the comeback player of the year. And we went

pretty big on that one for a player prop. 5G included? Of course, and my wireless saves me $400 a year. That's because you all have Xfinity Mobile with your internet. It's wireless so good, it keeps one-upping itself. $30 per line per month. Taxes and fees extra. Compares pricing of top carriers. Xfinity internet required. Reduced speeds up to 20 gigabits of usage per line. Most reliable based on

RootMetrics UL's report. Results vary. Non-endorsement. Good to move to the AFC East from here. Yeah, let's do it. I love these episodes love these episodes man they're the best um this is a very interesting division that the favorite obviously is buffalo their number is at 11 um which i found to be a little bit surprising this is one of the public's favorite teams uh it's evenly juiced uh for the over and the under they're minus 150 to win the division minus 350 to make the playoffs my plus 275 to miss jeff what do you think this is pretty interesting uh you can make the argument that we just saw josh allen's best season right is that is that a fair fair assessment i mean we disagree on him a little bit, but go ahead and make your case.

I'm saying, like, can we say that... Do you think that's the best we... It's a possibility that's the best we see for Josh Allen, right? I mean, why? He's 25. He went to Wyoming. I'm not saying he goes backwards. I'm just saying, like, what we saw last year was the best we get from him.

That's his ceiling. I mean, I would say probably not. But if that is his ceiling, he threw almost 40 touchdowns. Like he was an awesome player. It's worth discussing about this, right? Because if we think that he's going to be what he was last year and no better or really no worse, then I don't know how you don't go over this, right? You look at the roster construction, you look at their draft of fixing some of the defensive line issues,

and you look at their schedule, right? They get Pittsburgh week one. I don't really trust Pittsburgh, right? They have the Dolphins, Washington football team, the Texans. I mean, they'll be favored the first four games pretty heavily. Then Chiefs, they'll be favored with the Titans most likely. Dolphins again. Then Jaguars and Jets and Colts.

Their schedule. It's quite good. Okay, so the way I like to look at schedules is quarterbacks are playing, okay? So Big Ben, they have two or twice. That's three, right? They have Fitzpatrick. They have whoever's playing for the Texans. Pat Mahomes and then Ryan Tannehill. So two good quarterbacks, right? They have Fitzpatrick. They have whoever's playing for the Texans. Pat Mahomes and then Ryan Tannehill.

So two good quarterbacks, right? Yep. And then what? Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Wentz. Maybe. Winston. Maybe. Tom Brady.

Yep. Darnold. All right. So three. Three. Three quarterbacks you would consider to be any sort of big consider issue for them. So I think the play here is over. I don't know if we put 250 on it, but I think over is the play and minus 110. The one concern I have, I will say this is the COVID concern. I know you hate talking about COVID.

We have to do it though, Matt, is if the quarterback's not vaccinated, that worries me, right? If he has to miss a week or quarantine for five days or miss two weeks, that's the concern here. That's why this number I think should maybe be like $100 on this, but I'm on the bills over here. I think I really am having a hard time handicapping this team because this number felt a little bit strangely low to me, which makes me think that Vegas has a a read here i'll say this last year they were the number one ranked team in weighted

dboa at the end of the season which i was really surprised by um since sean mcdermott's been there they've they're covering almost 60 of the time which means they have you know obviously for gambling that's good but they have a really good coaching staff when you're covering that much. The thing that kind of concerns me, last year they were 5-1 in one-score games. That's always likely to regress. They have this easier schedule you mentioned. They're favored in every game as of now, except at KC and at Tampa, which is, you know, that's pretty justified. But my concern is actually a point that you've made to me before,

which is that there's these teams who get close. The one that comes to mind that you've mentioned a lot is Jacksonville from a few years ago, where they got to the AFC championship game, probably should have beaten Pittsburgh, I think it was. And then they sort of self scout and they're like, cool, we're good. We're almost there. Like, let's not change a whole lot. Buffalo doesn't have a lot of weaknesses, but they also didn't really get any better this season um they still don't really have an answer in the backfield singletarian moss is is not scaring anybody you know tight end beyond dawson knox which isn't you know that's not travis kelsey um stefan diggs was fantastic last year he's the one who i think probably hit his ceiling and i love love Stefan Diggs as a fellow Maryland crowd.

I'm not sure he can duplicate that effort. He's only had a season like that once. What if he misses three games? What happens to that offense? What if Josh Allen misses, you know, he strains his hamstring and misses a game? I also think New England's going to be a lot better. Miami is going to be a tough team. I could see this one kind of going south for them,

but still being a good team. But I don't think that we should just pencil them in as just as good as last year, just because the team is the same. Because usually that's not how this works in the NFL. Matt, I get what you're saying about them kind of coming out of nowhere, but I feel like this has been building now for a couple of years now.

And that's the difference. They've been building this up over time. I think, again, it's okay to say, hey, look, last year, everything kind of went well for them. Can they do this again? The pressure's on them. Everyone expects this. But I look at the rest of the division, and this is why I'm kind of on Buffalo Bills over.

I don't really like a lot of this division. Like, there's not a lot I like. And so if we're going to wager in this division, I want to wager on a good coaching staff, an explosive offense, a defense that has, you know, kind of had their ups and downs last year, but tried to add to the pass rush. So, Matt, I'm pretty curious about how you feel

about the Bills to win the conference. A little, you know, about plus 500 here. You know, I think they're the best option outside of Kansas City to do this. Just because I, believe it or not, I trust, I guess, Josh Allen more than Baker Mason a little bit, which is shocking for me to say, out of all people.

But where do you stand with any wagers with Buffalo? Look, I really like Buffalo a lot. I think they're a really good team. I'm willing to be wrong on my slight underprediction. I do think that's a fun one for plus 500 for the conference. They're certainly in the mix. I'm open to that, but I don't feel strongly about it just yet. I'm just going to put Buffalo on my list here as far as their over just feels.

We'll just put it up here on the list, over 11, and we'll kind of just marry it on as we go through. Because we've got to see what the rest of the division holds out, because I think there's some other teams that can make this over more tenable. All right, let's go to the Dolphins next. Let's do that. The Dolphins, where are the Miami Dolphins? Ten and a half wins. to make this over more tenable all right let's go to the dolphins next let's do that um the dolphins where are the miami dolphins ten and a half wins ten and a half wins uh their over is

juiced slightly to plus 105 under people seem to like that going minus 125 if you do like them to go 11 more wins division champs plus 350 plus 110 to make the playoffs, minus 140 to miss. This team is a really hard one for me to wrap my head around, Jeff. What do you think? There's a lot of last couple of days, too, of this hyping up Tua stuff lately. Like, oh, he wasn't that bad last year. He wasn't that. All right.

I could buy that, right, in year two. But offensive line, still a concern, right? Still a big concern. Big. Is Tua going to move the ball downfield? Defensive regression, right? We saw last year they scored a lot of points, Matt, on special teams and defense.

They did. And this is a big number, 10.5. Like, this is higher than a lot of teams with quarterbacks who we saw. This feels like a very generous number. And look, 10.5 to win the division plus 350. Like, they don't even expect them to win 10.5 games. That's why I know the under is juiced a little bit. But it feels like an underplay to me, Matt.

I think I agree. Look, this one's confusing because I agree their defense probably takes a step back i do think tua will take a step forward but only because he was quite bad last year uh coming off an injury obviously the no training camp he was doing that weird you know reliever starter thing with fitzpatrick um but they're just like a strangely composed team with I think a good coach like they're great in the secondary they have two really good corners um but they have two offensive coordinators they have this weird offensive line where like maybe they moved kind of laterally but they did lose two starters from last year um you know they add Will Fuller but it's like is could

is there a bigger question mark in the whole league than Will Fuller? Like he's usually good for three or four games a year and then it's hurt and then it's kind of missing. Jalen Waddell to me felt like the riskiest of those top receivers at the top of the draft with, you know, some interesting upside. deep receiving core um but last year tua was 21st in the league in in yards per pass um was almost two and a half yards per attempts less on third down than the league average that's kind of complicated stat but what i'm saying is he threw the ball short um so having a deep you know a bunch of deep threats doesn't totally make sense with his skill set so i just am too confused by this team i i that i guess should indicate that we should go under. So I'm open to that. And I think that this might be the public team and not Buffalo.

So you're good. Do you feel more comfortable with the under here or the over with the Bills? I feel more comfortable with the under in Miami. I'm with you here. So under 10.5, that's a little bit juicier. Minus 125. Put 250 on this?5, that's a little bit juicier. Minus one 25, put two 50 on this.

Yeah. Let's, let's do that. Okay. Cause we're split on Buffalo. I would lean under there. Any, any,

any props you see with that, with any of these two teams you like, I know we're not, we're not the biggest in the, in the prop field, but I think catch your mind here. Huh? Interesting.

I have interesting on, on miles Gaskin over five and a half rushing touchdowns. I feel like he's probably going to be their featured guy this year. That's one I would potentially buy in on for a little bit. What do you think of that one? Curious to see what the rest of the, let's see what we got. So it's got Miles Gaskins. Oh yeah. That's interesting. That's a low number. Malcolm Brown is there. Salvin Ahmed was good last

year in spots. This is his second. He had only one touchdown last year. No, sorry. Three last year. I kind of like that, right? Over plus 100. Okay. How much do you want to do on that? Maybe 100. You want to throw 100 down on that? Okay, perfect. Yeah. Let's do that. Right. It's a, it's a over plus 100. Okay. How much do you want to do on that?

Maybe a hundred. You want to throw a hundred down? Okay. Perfect. Yeah. Let's do that. I'm going to love, these are gonna be so fun to track this year.

They really are. Gaskin. I mean, the, the buzz I've heard is that everyone likes Gaskin on that team. You know, he, he,

he was not a high, I think he was a seventh round pick last year. So he was a little bit of a surprise, but the fact that they didn't go and grab somebody in the offseason i think indicates that they uh they do he had he had um at washington he was the first guy in school history to rush for for a thousand yards four straight seasons like he can he can rush the ball that's interesting yeah um all right so we got we got some dolphins wagers in. Let's get to the New England Patriots now. Why don't you go first here?

Because I have a pretty strong opinion. Win total is 9.5, over plus 110, under minus 130. The problem with having a take on them is I just don't know what we're getting from Cam Newton, right? I mean, that's the thing. I think their defense and offense, they're retooled. Belichick, look, Belichick's a coach.

They were 7-9 last year. He can still coach guys, but the general manager part of him is what's holding this team back. So I don't feel great either way because I think if Cam plays well, they could attain over nine and a half wins.

So this is a bet on Cam, right, Matt? If you think Cam's going to be good or not. He's easily the starting, which I thought from the beginning he would start. I feel like whenever you say I have a strong lean i feel like we're going under here au contraire jeffrey uh i am i am a strong uh contender for the over here for a few i love it

so last year um the patriots had a pretty tough schedule last year. They played the NFC West and the AFC West. This year they play the AFC and NFC South, which among them has, I'd say, one good team. One truly good team. You could argue the Titans or Colts, but spoiler alert for those divisions. This year, their schedule is much more favorable. They do have a bunch of games.

They actually lead the league in playing a team after an opponent's bye week. But if there's any coach that can navigate that it's bill belichick um last year they played really good past defenses this year you know just think of the nfc west for instance this year they're playing much easier past defenses cam newton last year whether he starts or not the cam newton of this year or the mac jones of this year should be better than cam last year remember he came in kind of late in the off season he had a covet problem where he said like he wasn't really thinking straight um for the end of the season and here's the other thing

they had eight opt-outs last season for players that mostly mattered um their offense and defense are wildly different just by virtue of getting those guys back they add dante hightower's arguably the most critical part of that defense patrick chung who's like one of those guys that just like they maximize every single year marcus cannon's coming back and they added probably their four top pass catchers on their offense right the two tight ends agalor and someone i'm forgetting off the top of my head but they they adjusted their offensive firepower completely um this is not a sexy fun pick no one likes to sweat out New England games but their favorable schedule Jeff like they start out I could see them starting 3-0 they play Miami they play the Jets and they play the Saints like none of those teams are that scary and then they

have that week four game against against Tom Brady where he comes back to New England, which will be fascinating. I could see this being the Bill Belichick revenge tour. Everyone's counted them out. I'm way in on the over this year. I'm with you on that. I'll ride with you.

I'll bet on good coaches. So 250 to win 275 here plus 110. I'll gladly do that. I'm trying to find Cam Noon props. It's hard to find some specific player props because I think Cam Noon's total touchdowns can be pretty interesting to look at,

but it's just hard to find sometimes individual player props. So we'll pass on that, but I feel like there's a way to come back to that at some point if we can find some more concrete stuff, especially if we get closer to the season. I feel like Cam Noon, if come back to that at some point if we can find some more concrete stuff, especially if we get closer to the season. I feel like Cam Noon, if we expect the Patriots to do well, we should have some money on Cam Noon.

That's interesting. I'm less – I don't know. I don't know what's going to happen there. I mean, I could see Mac Jones getting the call sooner than later if Cam starts kind of poorly. But I don't know for some reason like i'm able to justify all these points and also say that i'm not super hot on their starting quarterback so um yeah i don't know i i'm i'm okay to just sort of lay some on the pats over and stay away from the players i've said before the thing about mac jones playing

this year is installing a mac jones package and training camp is going to be tough because there's not a lot of time, right? So you're going to have to camp in a specific place. And so to change that in the middle of the season will mean their season's toast. Like we'll lose this bet, essentially. Like if Mac Jones, in my opinion, Mac Jones has to play. All right, moving along to our fearless leader, Gabe Goodwin's favorite team, the New York football Jets. Yeah, the J uh it's six wins

uh you can you get even money for going over minus 120 for the under plus 2500 to win the division plus 550 to make the playoffs uh minus 800 to miss them um what do you think i think for the sake of gabe we have to take the under here, right? I mean, that feels like what he's going to want us to do, a minus 120 here. I don't know. I don't have a great feeling of Jets, right? I mean, it comes down to Wilson. I wasn't very high on Wilson coming out,

so maybe this is a very anti-Wilson wager. Take the under, right, and just kind of see what happens. Reports out of Camper, he's doing okay, right? Not great, just okay okay i feel probably more comfortable taking under here they just have don't really have talent they're building their talent but it's not really there right now yeah i it's interesting um god i can't believe i'm about to say this i'm leaning over on the jets um for a few reasons they number one i don't know if anyone really understands how bad adam gaze is like that team had absolutely no fight last year they quit on the they quit in so

many games i've never seen a team like really just lay down the way they did with adam gaze at the front um their quarterback play was terrible their offensive line play was terrible but you look at how this team approached their offseason it reminds me of miami two years ago when everyone just thought they were going to be a complete mess and then all of a sudden it was like huh they did some interesting things like for instance offensive line right they draft vera tucker in the first round move back up to get him they sign morgan moses to back up or start over george fant maybe all of a sudden their offensive line is like much better their wide receiving core they went out and spent on cory davis maybe too much money but you look at that receiving core and it's all of a sudden it's crowder it's cory davis it's keelan cole like this michael carter guy that they picked

up in the draft later is getting a ton of of buzz they add carl lawson who's like that's not a move you make if you're like looking three years down the road here that's like an impact guy same with sheldon rankin's like they were a busy team in the offseason and now they add this coach who again robert sala doesn't have to be vince lombardi he just has to be not adam gaze for this team to kind of matter and look i i I, I'm not sold on Zach Wilson at all, but he should be, I think he'll be, I think he'll put up some yards, uh, in this offense with, uh, Mike LaFleur. Um, I, you know, they should have like a pretty dynamic, a pretty dynamic approach on the offensive side. I'm reminded of, of Jameis Winston, uh, coming into the league back in 2015 tampa they're kind of i

think they're going to be kind of similar right they're they're going to take some risks they're going to like make some mistakes but they have all the physical tools that year winston was okay and the bucks went in six and ten in a pretty difficult division like i can see the jets here sneaking to six ish wins maybe over um especially if one of these teams falls apart. I think that people are just really underestimating how tragic Adam Gase was as a head coach. I'm with you there. He was a bad head coach, but let's think about their schedule, right? Dolphins twice, Patriots twice. And Bills twice. Tampa Bay. How many wins are they getting there?

I mean, maybe zero. Okay, so let's give them one win there, okay? Let's see the other wins they're at. So at Carolina, okay, that's possible. At Denver, all right. I mean, I can see that. We've got three wins now, right? Tennessee not being Tennessee.

What about the Falcons? I mean. Maybe four see that. We've got three wins now, right? Tennessee not being Tennessee. What about the Falcons? I mean, maybe four. Bengals, five. I mean, that's week four, week eight. And Texans, week 12, yeah. Texans, six. Eagles, seven, I guess. I mean, Jacksonville.

So you're looking at maybe, that's maybe eight wins, giving them one win in division. And assuming they win all these games, right? I mean, the Carolina Panthers are the favorite in week one right there's no guarantee that that the jets are going to win any of those games are supposed to win i would just stay away from the jets i i don't think i would put money on them um to to do much of anything this year except not make the playoffs but i know you don't like wagering um a lot of money on on favorites do you really want to put the jets over in here no, I don't need to,

but I would definitely lean there if I had to make a choice. I just, I really do think that they're going to surprise people. Like, I think they're going to be one of those teams, like maybe like the Giants last year where they're like pretty bad, but they win some games, they compete,

and everyone's like, huh, the Jets. Like, and then next year, everyone's like, you know, doing what we're doing with the Giants this year. So there's some fun props that our intern Hank and Nick, producer Nick, included in here. So Zach Wilson leads the leagues in interceptions, plus 900. I like that one. That feels good, right?

I like that one a lot. One of the reasons I really like that is they don't really have a backup quarterback, right? Like, Zach Wilson's going to play. He is going to get out like they just signed josh johnson they there are other backups jeff mike white and james morgan i've never heard of those dudes so zach wilson's gonna play he's gonna be go out there and make some mistakes um i think that's a really good bet plus 900 like come on you want to put 100 bucks on that yeah to win a grand let's fly yeah okay plus 900 so perfect there so we have we have a little bit of money left for this division can i can i can i interest you in uh in a prop that is on our board here for the for the uh who do you think

wins division by the way you're going with the bills i'm not betting on it but i'm going with the bills i mean i would be open to betting new england to win it plus 350 that's a great number um you know even if you just look at the odds like like they're at nine and a half, the bills are at 11. Like there's some variance within there. I could see them if I'm doing my math correct, we have $300 left. We've spent $700 so far. There's a prop that was included in here that I think is pretty much a guarantee. We can win money on the first play of the season. Mack Jones to take New England Patriots' first snap. No is minus 350, Matt.

I know it's laying a lot, and we're not going to win terribly much, but Mack Jones is not taking the first snap of the season. It's just not happening. It's not happening. And if we want to start off with a win, we take our $300, we win $85 early on, and we just continue on our day. Oh, I hate that i i love that i hate that i'll tell you what man so that's a close contact away on sunday from us being

fucked immediately i hate that so okay listen listen to me for a second okay so i we both started kind of working in this industry on the gambling side of the same company, right? And that company preached value, okay? Value. And the value was always, you know, taking no more than maybe minus 125 at any wager and plus money when possible. And I'm all for that, right? Generally speaking. But Matt, sometimes, man, I've been doing this more often in some other sports where I have some ins.

It's okay to lay some juice, buddy, if you think you're going to win the wager. And like, okay, how does Matt Jones not start? How does Cam Newton not start week one? Injury, right? Or the global pandemic with the most contagious strain on a guy that, we betting cam newton's vaccinated jeff like that's really what that is for me that's a good point this guy this guy writes his instagram captions and fucking hieroglyphics i'm not positive that i want to i want to lay a bunch of money on him definitely not getting coveted before week one just saying oh dang that's a good

that's a good oh man that's why there's's more variance in this year's start of the season and all these player props. Like, for the most part, like, take the under. Like, bet the no. You're right. We can't do that because of that. I think we take Mac Jones plus. Like, why not?

Like, we're basically betting on a Cam Newton meltdown of some kind. Like, that's possible. Yeah, I think that's less likely. I would just stay away from that. So, we have 300 left are you good are you good here are we going to go back to the bills over 11 i want to put some bill the money on the bills a little bit all right why don't we do the pats and bills uh something something there so what do we have here so we have gaskin over and wilson touchdown

right we have dolphins under 10 and a half gaskin over 5.5 touchdowns, Patriots over 9, Zach Wilson leads in interceptions at plus 900. We have $300 left. I mean, what about Pats to win the division for that great number? If we're taking them over 9. I'm in with that. But I also like Bills over too, so i can't take both of those i guess i can't right because they can't cancel each other out yeah and the division thing for new england is a little bit of a flyer we're getting a plus 400 on that almost so pat's win division plus 400

you want to use 100 on that and use 200 on bills over or you want to use 50 into a 250 i'm i'm fine with the first way i'm i'm very comfortable betting on bill belichick like there's there's no there's no number you can scare me off of okay so 100 to win 400 yeah we're 350 or something yep it's it's plus 400 or plus 350 plus 350 oh sorry okay so plus 350 so those plus 400 and then we'll use the rest of the money if i'm doing my math correctly, 200 bucks on the bill. I think the bills are over. I'm pretty high on some of these teams at the top for their over numbers.

Let's do it. So we'll go over here, minus 110, and we'll use the rest of the money, plus the 200 here, and we'll be pretty happy with our wagers. Dude, I like where we've been with show one. I know it's a little long, guys. I get it. But I said some nice things about teams I normally don't say nice things about. So, yeah, you should be pretty happy about that.

This is in-depth, man. We just gave like a real Jets season preview, like from a gambling point of view. Like who else is doing that on August 11th? Like, you're welcome. No one is doing that. Gabe's going to be very upset with you, though, because you think the Jets can win a lot of games. I think he's going to feel like you slighted him, like you did on purpose.

7-10 would be a great Jets season, and I think is very, very plausible. But we also did not bet on it, and we bet Zach Wilson will lead the league in interceptions. So I think Gabe will sign off on that. I think he'll sign off. Okay, so the last wager, it's taking some time to put this in here,

but I have Bills over their win total at 200 bucks over 11 i'm in with that uh to win one i think it's 181 dollars let's do that let's lock this in all right man i think we got all our bets any any last wagers you have fumbling in your brain for the nfc east or theFC East? No, man. Let's get back at it on our next one of these. This was super fun. Lots of good bets to make. We'll share all these from your social, right? Yeah. So we also, remember, we used up some of that $2,000

left over for the Dak Prescott comeback player of the year. Now, that could obviously, you know, we could add some more to that at the end. But that could obviously you know we could add some more to that at the end but we got a lot of we got a lot of money saved up here to have some fun with

as we continue on. Awesome buddy. Well thanks for having me. We'll do this again soon. Yeah man. Thank you guys for joining us as usual. Josh Wolfe is smarter than you.

Please rate, review, subscribe begin the football season. We are so excited to be with you guys all season. Back to two episodes next week. Have a great weekend. We are so excited to be with you guys all season. Back to two episodes next week. Have a great weekend. Hope you guys enjoyed. Talk to you guys later.