Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - NFC and AFC North Season Win Totals and Prop Bets

Episode Date: August 19, 2021

Geoff is joined this week by Matt Ford to preview their AFC North and NFC North team win total predictions with bonus prop bet picks. They discuss which teams should finish at the top of each division, some surprise teams to miss the playoffs, a few props on some promising young QBs, and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, August 19th. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford, and this is Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you. We are back for another gambling preview episode, and we're doing more than just gambling on these preview episodes. We're doing the AFC and the NFC North. We'll cover the teams, the spreads, the player props, the season previews. We'll do that all. Matt, how you doing, buddy? I'm doing great, Jeff. Our favorite shows to do every year are these ones. Gives me a chance to really get buttoned up and learn what's going on with every single team. So hopefully it does the same for the listeners. Man, I didn't realize that the preseason schedule was shorter with this extra game.

So we're really getting close here. Yeah, they shorted to three games um and the last game though is much earlier than the last game used to be right so there's more time between the end that game used to be around you know labor day weekend it's that thursday before labor day weekend now it's way before that right it's like the it's still in august i think the last preseason game so um yeah there's a lot of time between the end of that and the start of the season. But we've got preseason almost every night, right? Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.

It's fantastic. I'm enjoying two and two wagering on the preseason games. Very rigid gambling schedule based off of the coaches. So, follow me on Instagram at Jeff Schwartz. I post all those plays there. But let's get right to it. So, here's how we're doing this, guys. We have $1,000 to spend per division.

So we have $1,000 on the NFC North, $1,000 on the AFC North, and then we have an extra $2,000 kind of leftover, so $10,000 total through this whole process that we're kind of sprinkling here and there. For example, I think we waged a little bit extra on Dak Prescottcott prop kind of waiting to see whether or not he was going uh to be healthy which appears he will be healthy moving forward so we'll go back and adjust those at the end of this whole podcast preview we're going to hit four of them for for each kind of you know region of the country then we'll hit one more final one to wrap up the season preview plus

we'll add in any extra wagers uh for that we had some we had some fun on the uh on the first one we did and um let's start with the afc north this will be a fun division this year matt it really is jeff um this one is i i mean you could argue maybe the best division in in the whole sport so which is kind of a crazy thing to say but let's start we're going we usually go in the order of the highest to lowest win totals we'll do that here uh the team with the most projected wins this year is baltimore uh we've got them at 11 wins the over is uh even money the under is minus 120 plus 115 to win the division minus 300 to make the playoffs uh this is a real interesting team jeff i'm curious what you make of those numbers can we also give a shout out to the Ravens for winning 18 straight preseason games?

The streak lives. They're the only ones disappointed that the preseason is shorter because they can't add more wins to that. They've covered 16 of those 18 games, by the way. They are covering machine, machine in the preseason. Here's my thoughts about the Ravens. I know the topic is we don't like to talk about it. It's kind of

being a dead horse, but their quarterback is not vaccinated. It's that simple. I would love to bet the over on the win total. I think they are a great regular season team. They win regular season games because their offense is so hard to defend in such a short week of preparation people are beat up right the offense is kind of boom boom boom boom boom and they roll in the regular season obviously we've talked about their playoff issues in the

past i'm sure we'll get into that at some point as we preview you know their their postseason odds but but to me i would love to hit the over here um but matt i just don't know what if the quarterback's out two weeks man like and he just tested positive so maybe you know he kind of avoids that you'd have to get it a third time but but you don't mean like it's so i i i like the over if we're taking a wager here again they win a ton of regular season games. They're very hard to defend. They were 11-5 last year, and that was with Lamar. He missed a week for COVID, I believe, right? He had that game where he – the Browns game.

When they won that game where he kind of went to poop, cramp, whatever it was. They had a little stretch there where the offensive line was beat up. They've tried to retool their offensive line. But they won 11 games last year. 2019, they won 19 excuse me 2019 they won 14 games um i like the over here but i'm not sold on it well let me see if i could talk you in the other direction jeff um so i think baltimore actually is in a position to start pretty sluggishly and then sort of never really recover, at least when it comes to getting to 11 and six. So let me just sort of play out the beginning of this season for you. So first of all, they go to Las Vegas in week one, right? Now, John Gruden's teams tend to show up in week one. Last year, they beat Carolina on the road when everyone was healthy.

The year before that, they won a Monday night game against road when everyone was healthy the year before that they won a uh a monday night game against denver that everyone was really surprised they won the raiders are opening up to fans for the first time that crowd is going to be crazy and all vaccinated shout out to the raiders jackson will be recovering from covid and meanwhile four offensive line starters have been injured throughout this training camp right including a new center a rookie right guard and ronnie stanley who like if that guy's injured then there we're talking about a big problem um jackson's we already mentioned not 100 we're talking about trace mcsorley as potentially coming in there having to spot him a game or two without rashad bateman hollywood brown's been injured all camp sammy watkins is mr. Dependable in that receiving core.

Like, what are we talking about? He also got hurt the other day, I think, too. I mean, obviously, that's a thing that tends to happen with him. And last year, Baltimore was the top 10 healthiest team, according to Warren Sharpe's metrics. So that usually seesaws. So going back to week one, I wouldn't be shocked. I actually really like the raiders to at

least cover in week one we're gonna have this problem in our week one podcast i'm already telling you great perfect well harbaugh 10 and 3 against the spread in week one raiders still can't play defense but nonetheless that we'll save we'll save that for week one podcast well good i'll have some time to hammer that out but what i'm saying is they start out with that weird raiders game which feels like it could be a fluky one they have the chiefs they get detroit but then it's indy denver chargers so they have a tough start to the season where they're still going to be coming together um last year they had an easy schedule this year they have a top 10 tough schedule their division is tough i just don't see all these things breaking right for Baltimore to get to 11 wins. So I think that they go under.

I think that's not even a big sweat. And I actually could be talked into missing the playoffs for plus 225. So miss the playoffs would mean the Browns win the division, which I will get to in a second. Are the Steelers better than we think? I mean, we don't need the Steelers necessarily. Right. Okay, so Cleveland, right? Kansas City, Chargers, Bills.

We took the Patriots over. Patriots, Patriots, and then two from the South? Or there's another team from the East? I mean, who knows? Yeah, you're right about the offensive line, right? Even without the injuries on the offensive line, new left guard, new right guard, new right tackle. New center.

And new center. Bozeman's played before, if he's the guy that they're going to have in there. And it's not the same offense it used to be. And you have to wonder if, and I think Lamar will be the same quarterback, but remember, they're trying to pass the ball more, right? I think that's the idea.

And Greg Roman, the offensive coordinator, that's really not what he's known for, right? He had the same issue in San Francisco when he was the OC with Kaepernick because the passing he just kind of never got going. And, you know, people look and say, hey, is it Lamar Jackson's kind of issue they can't throw the ball? Is it Greg Roman?

I think it's kind of a combination of both. But I think they tried to pass the ball more this year. And that, to me, screams the under for the rushing yards as well um you know last year they had uh what pull up right here um last season rushing uh 300 excuse me 3071 yards the year before that 2019 36 almost 3300 uh rushing yards right now the total is at um two uh 2950 so it would be a little bit less than last about 100 yards less than last year um it just feels like as you mentioned injuries up front new offensive line maybe a tough start to to begin with if lamar misses a week or two if if all these things happen it feels like the under for the rushing.

It does feel like a lot of under props are maybe the way to go here. We just have to pick our favorite one. Yeah. I mean, go ahead. Is the best bet to not make the playoffs? I mean, no plus 220, 225? I mean, it's not.

Odds are not in our favor. They're three to one to make it. But I do think it's not. Odds are not in our favor. They're 3-1 to make it. But I do think it's a sneaky good value given how I think their season's going to start. Man, we disagree so much on the week one game. That was one of my favorite. I was going to say, let's just take the week one Ravens line for our futures.

But obviously that's not going to fly in this. I'm looking at some of the other odds they have here. Lamar's not going to fly in this. I'm looking at some of the other odds they have here. Lamar's not going to break the single-season quarterback rushing record. Justin Tucker did not miss a field goal. I actually looked this up. He's missed a field goal every season. So I actually looked it up to see if there was any value in that. You know, a lot of these props don't have kind of the, you know,

to fade the prop, right? Which is kind of, the only one is really the rushing yards. J.K. Dobbins, over 1,000 rushing yards. What do you want to do here? I see nothing I really like. I would sprinkle on the playoffs to miss, but that's not one we're going to get rich off of. I think that would just be kind of a dart. I think there's other teams here that we like more props again i i would still lean a little over here and over is is plus 100 so the the money is coming in the under under is

minus 120 i mean maybe they move the wind total 10 and a half at some point i doubt it i doubt it um but the browns are next year buddy and i hate to say this but we're gonna spend a lot of money on the browns and i feel like this is gonna be a mistake in the end but still i'm doing it like i am i am all in on the browns this year yeah this could be the one that like really affects our bottom line because i somehow same page um i think at least cleveland's win total is 10 and a half uh over even on either side plus 150 to win the division uh minus 225 to make the playoffs uh tell me about this over yeah i love the over here i think they're a 13 win team man um you look at at the roster and you look at the depth of their team if you if you take out the quarterback right take out baker mayfield and

you look at just the depth of the team who has more depth the nfl possibly the patriots right i mean not patriots the the bucks right yeah possibly the bucks right right i'm sorry different right yeah yes but look running back right chubb kareem hunt and they drafted this kid named dimitri felt out of ucla dimitri fell is gonna be a difference maker i'm telling you guys he was he was he was underused at ucla he's legit wide receiver right jarvis landry we know is good odell is back it feels like odell is in witness protection but he's back okay austin hooper david and joku they drafted anthony schwartz out out of Auburn to be a wide receiver. Speedster, right?

Stretch the field kind of laterally to get some stuff going back up the field. Best offensive line. You can make an argument the Saints are up there as well. Not the Steelers, the Saints. Look at the defense, right? Miles Garrett. You look at Clowney. I don't know.

Up and down on Clowney. I'm not quite sold on him, but Malik Jackson's there now. And you look at the linebacker, right, Mack Wilson. And they drafted this kid I know today in this year who everyone loves. Look at the secondary. Here's what I love about what they did in the secondary. They needed help, right? We know that to beat the Chiefs, you need to stop, not stop them,

but slow them down, right? Drafted Greg Newsome. added John Johnson, added Troy Hill. They have Denzel Ward still. They have Greedy Williams. I mean, they have five guys to play four positions, essentially. They have a really talented team. And you added Baker Mayfield, who, again, I think Baker Mayfield is a good quarterback. Not more than that. And Browns fans despise when I say this, but I think Baker Mayfield is a good quarterback. Not more than that.

And Browns fans despise when I say this, but I think he's a product of this offense. We've seen this offense take average quarterbacks, Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins, and make them really, really good in this offense. And there's nothing wrong with saying that. But Baker Mayfield threw for less uh this year than he did last and you can make the case that that was because they were behind a couple years ago he completed only 63 percent of passes okay i mean like that's not that much in the nfl right matt like i think baker mayfield's good i think he's carried a lot by his team it's why i don't think they're gonna win the afc but I'm on their over. I'm on and I'm on division champs.

Love, love each pencil. I'm in here's a, you said everything that anyone needs to hear, but I'm going to give you one more great stat. How did Cleveland win games last year, Jeff? What was their sort of formula for, for how they would win? It was, it was rushing the football play action pass. So they, they ran over teams with that amazing backfield this year on their schedule. They play last year's 32nd,

31st, 30th, 29th, 28th, 27th, 26th, 25th, and 20th rush defenses from last year.

They're going to eat in that backfield, Jeff. They, the only difficult run defenses they play are baltimore pittsburgh and the bears that's five of their 17 games they're going to go off on the grounds baker mayfield contract year beckham big prove it year i mean is there a guy getting more buzz than people's jones this preseason jeff i just feel like you know best offensive line in the league clowny three new starters in the secondary i you know i already said i think baltimore is going to get worse uh pittsburgh we think is probably not going to be as good

everything's lining up here i mean which is like a nightmare scenario because we have to go all in on the browns man we have to put our money where our mouth is but i i'm not scared let's do it man so you want to do the the 250 on the over and 250 on division or is that too much on division i dude i would hammer the division like i i don't see another division yeah i i mean do you see baltimore legitimately being a real threat so you want to put you want to put well i mean they're so do you just want to put division champs only because if if they go over 10.5 wins, they're probably winning division, right? We're going to put a little bit on the over.

We should put a little bit on the over. Let's do that. A little bit on the over, big on division champs. Do you want to do like 150 on the over and 350 on the division champs? Let's do it. Okay, so it's 150 to win 136 on the uh on the over just just kind of cover our bases if they end up winning over but um don't end up winning the division which is um you know just uh so we're doing 150 there and we're doing what we say 350 and the other one

yeah and jeff i i have uh thanks to our production team here, an amazing parlay bet here. I saw that one, yes. Browns and Packers to win their divisions plus 310. I mean, not to skip too far ahead here to the NFC North, but I love that one. Yeah, that's what we use the extra money for, right? I think so. Yeah, so we can add that to the extra money.

So we're betting 350 on plus 150 to win 525 on those two wages okay so we're down 500 bucks here let's let's save that one to the end of the show we'll tack that on to what we did with dac prescott last week which i think was was one uh what we bet 250 for him to win comeback player of the year is that we did i think so i believe i can look at my notes for that um but we'll come back and use that for the end of the show when we get to kind of to wrap up but i think we're all in on on the browns yeah let's do it um great well we've got three bets in there uh which is good because i think these other teams are a little bit tough to handicap let's let's move to pitt Pittsburgh, a team I know you're not hot on. Their win total is exactly 500, 8.5.

You get a little advantage for going over, which is interesting for such a public team. They're plus 120 for the over, minus 140 for the under. Man, people are fading Pittsburgh. Plus 500 to win the division, plus 140 to make the playoffs, which I think is a little bit tasty. But Jeff, I know you're really down on this team. Tell me why. I am. And the reason why is their quarterback, right? So we saw Ben start to physically decline last year. And even though the offense wasn't fabulous and the play calling, you know, people argued wasn't very good, doesn't

really make up for the fact that Big Ben just doesn't look the same as he used to and it's fine he's an older quarterback he's coming off injury we don't see older quarterbacks matt who start to decline just like pop back up again right people want to use tom brady's example no tom brady wasn't physically declining in new england he had no one to throw to new england he went to tampa bay and boom same same guy right so we're physically declining we have a brand new offense we have basically a brand new offensive line with a lot of young guys on this offensive line. I just don't believe that. And look, I think Mike Tomlin is a fabulous coach, right? He has not had a season under.500 his entire tenure in Pittsburgh.

But sometimes those things come to an end, right? And I think right now it's coming to an end. And so I know you've got to lay some juice here, but I think no playoffs minus 175 is the wager to go here because they could still win nine games and not make the playoffs. I don't think that's likely to win nine games, but they're not making the playoffs. There are seven, eight, nine teams better than them in the AFC.

Look, I did a bunch of prep for this, and I sort of netted out. I can't really tell. What's weird about Pittsburgh is their defense should be just as good as last year, in theory. I mean, the Bud Dupree loss matters. Their schedule gets a lot tougher for them last year they were one of the healthiest teams in the league that you know with with ben roethlisberger at the helm that's uh not necessarily something you would expect to repeat um i guess i'm with you jeff i i i'll fade them uh i think mainly because of the problems up front and the age of ben rothlisberger i feel a

little bit weird saying that i just don't see pittsburgh breaking 500 but um i think it is i think it is the right play and it's also sort of doubling down on our cleveland position so uh i'm with you and you know i think then missing the playoffs potentially is uh is a good play although i don't like that number well let yeah let's put that on not making the playoffs potentially is a good play, although I don't like that number. Well, yeah, let's put that on not making the playoffs at minus 175 because I want to put some money on that, but I kind of want to see what we're going to end up with for the Bengals because there's some interesting numbers here. I know there's some of them that you like here.

There's some I like as well. So I want to get to the Bengals first, and then we back in and we'll spend um the money on what we're going to put in the series to not make the playoffs yeah okay let's talk since he quickly they're at six and a half uh even money for the over minus 120 for the under plus 2500 to win the division how insulting plus 500 to make the playoffs uh minus 750 to miss interesting team man hard one to hard one to forecast it really is um and a lot of it kind of depends on that offensive line right and seeing how joe burrow in year two uh with his new weapons ends up uh performing so i yeah i i think the number is about right right it's 17 game season they're going to be around that six or

seven win total but i here's a number that caught my attention when we're doing this joe burrow last year averaged um 268 yards per game passing right and that was again the backdrop of bad offensive line getting hit non-stop i know he's behind a bunch of games and he did end up playing 10 games that nets out in a 17 gamegame season to 4,500 yards. You have to assume this season, with a better offensive line, with Jamar Chase in tow, he's probably somewhere at 280, 290 yards per game. I mean, somewhere around there, right?

Now, if they're winning more games in the end, maybe he's not. But his passing total this year for his prop is 42, 49 and a half. That's pretty low, I think, for if you just extrapolate what happened last season and we assume that he's going to be better this year, right? Healthy. I feel like Joe Burrow overpassing is the way to go here. I'm a little nervous about Burrow. It just doesn't seem like he's 100% back mentally yet

from all the reports that have come out of camp. Let's address the Bengals first. The Bengals have gone under their win total five straight years. I thought that was pretty interesting. They're only favored right now in the look-aheads in two games this year, at Detroit and home for Jacksonville, which holy moly. Somehow their schedule is the toughest in the division, fifth toughest in the NFL, despite being the worst team. PFF actually projects the Bengals to go over, which I was a little bit surprised about.

But here's the thing that gave me some confidence in taking the under Jeff. Zach Taylor, two, 13 and one in one score games as a head coach. That is a major problem. Look, I think if Burrow is even... A few things could happen with Burrow. He could start slow, in which case that does not bode well for the Bengals for the rest of the season.

But I also think they could shut him down kind of early if things go south because he's just too important and that offensive line is Swiss cheese so I think that there's too many reasons to take the under here I'm willing to fade if we can find anything that would fade Jamar Chase's yard total I'm you know a lot of talk about how he hasn't played football in a while and he needs some time to adjust. I'm down to sort of fade this team, even though I think they'll be pretty fun to watch. Do you not like the passing yards? I mean, I think that would have to assume.

I actually think the number we're getting, 42-50 roughly, is pretty good. Yeah, there's another one here too. We pull from different books. We go 4,200. I feel like if we're going to take some money on this team, that's what we're doing. Yeah, I don't mind that. It looks like we have a Jamar Chase receiving yards prop of 1,025 yards. I would definitely go under there.

Just I think he's going to get off to a slow start like a lot of these receivers do, especially even those who played last season. That's one I would really like to take. Justin Jefferson last year had an incredible year. He had 1,400 yards receiving. But he's the only guy. It's the best season in history for a rookie. I agree.

I know you do, but everyone out there is like, oh, there's going to be a rookie receiver who has a Justin Jefferson season this year. No, that's not going to happen every year. I feel like people are really hot on these rookies, and it's like, that's just not going to happen again. I'm looking at receiving yards from last year. 12, what's he at again? 1025.

1025. So 1025 will put him, you know, we'll put him fifth. We'll put him 16th, 17th. I mean, yeah, that's pretty hard to. 60 yards a game. When you break it down like that, it seems pretty low, actually. But that extra game, though, right? I mean, and again, like, it's a good.

I'm kind of curious. I'm going through all this now. I'm kind of curious. So, like, we have not had rookies. I mean, mean yeah you're right about the rookies though right I mean we're not getting rookies with that many yards no it's very rare I mean I look if he comes out and the first and remember there's a lot of T Higgins one really caught fire at the end of last season Tyler Boyd is like super underrated I think you know i think he's gonna fight for his targets i'm i'm good with i'm good with that if we're putting some money on on the bangle so jamar

chase under 10 25 and a half at minus 120 so how do you want to we have 500 left in this division how do you want to do the steelers miss playoffs and the chase under and and i do think and we we could save some of that two thousand dollars and and put some on the Browns and Packers here as well. Any other win totals we want to hit? We're a little late there. Yeah, I mean, we don't, I mean, I'm not, I like, like I said, I like the burrow over passing yards. Let's do burrow over and chase under.

Do you want to do that? Yeah, let's do, so burrow, we'll do burrow over and we'll do chase under. So we're going to do pit miss. So, okay, so we have $500 left to spend. Let's do 100 on the Steelers, and then do 200 on the other ones. How about that, right? Sounds good.

Okay. So put 100 on the Steelers. We'll put 200 on Chase to go under, and Joe Burrow to go over. That feels right where we're at. So we have our wagers here, and we're going to save the Browns and Packers. We'll do Browns division, Brown browns over steersmith the playoffs and burrow over and chase under that's our thousand dollars uh spent very uh very wisely hopefully in the pursuit of making as much money as uh as possible that's why we're here that's why we're here um all right

let's get to the nfc north We'll have some fun with this one. Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. That's cool. But with my wireless, I get unlimited for just $30. Impressive. But does yours have 5G included?

Of course. And my wireless saves me $400 a year. That's because you all have Xfinity Mobile with your internet. It's wireless so good, it keeps one-upping itself. $30 per line per month. Taxes and fees extra. Compares pricing of top carriers. Xfinity internet required. Reduced speeds up to 20 gigabits of usage per line. Most reliable based on root metrics. UL's report. Results vary. Non-endorsement. Starting out with the obvious favorite, Green Bay. Win total is 10, overs juiced at minus 150, plus 120, minus 160 to win the division, minus 280 to make the playoffs. Thoughts?

I mean, the over here is just too public. I mean, division champs. I mean, I feel like who's going to beat them in this division? Why is this number so low? Like, I, like i i like double checked this because i was like well hang on how can it be 10 like this one absolutely floored me i like it is public to to take the packers here but i mean i know that there's reasons to go against them but this one to me feels like on aaron rogers is uncertain kind of bet but like does this team like does this team not win double digit games in any scenario like i just don't see it and and we get a flat number in 10 too right like we don't even get a half uh we don't have

a hook here at all um i i'm i'm i think the packers are really good. I don't know if Rodgers has the same year. I don't know if Rodgers has the same season, but they have the offensive line, a wide receiver that we know is good. I think their addition of Barry to run the defense is really important. It's very in the weeds, but there's kind of this new hybrid style

of this cover two-ish defense that's happening. It's more of a quarters defense. We're seeing it more around the NFL. The best defenses are running it. Vic Fangio runs it. Staley runs it. Now he's with the Chargers, but with the Rams last year. And Joe Barry is going to run this defense.

I think the defense is going to be a lot better. And so I'm really okay with taking, and we have to lay a little bit of money here but a little bit juice i mean to take the packers over i just don't see how they don't hit this it it seems inevitable with the rest of the vision that they're going to hit this number yeah i agree uh joe berry fun facts he drinks like 10 cups of coffee a day uh he's dan campbell he used used to be Washington's defensive coordinator. And like the first and only story written about him was like how many cups of coffee he drinks.

It was like a sick amount. Look, here's the caution flags on Green Bay. I mean, the Rodgers thing. No one is unaware of that if they're this far into any football podcast. The thing that's a little bit concerning is they're only favored in nine games this year their schedule really jumps in terms of difficulty last year they kind of had a cakewalk felt like every week they were playing like the lions this week this year um they have the biggest jump in the past defenses that they face they face a lot better rush offenses um you know last year i think things like broke pretty well for them in the regular

season but at some point like 26 and 6 under matt lafleur is like not a fluke um so look it this is basically a fade of you know the lions and the bears and the vikings which i'm fine with but um yeah i just don't see a world where they don't go 11 wins or better. Yeah, and even if they get 10, right, we push on the wager, which is not bad. I just don't see how they don't win 10 games even, right? I mean, even with a tougher schedule, the way their offense is designed, the way their defense is improved, right? They actually have cornerbacks now that are good for many years, right?

Jared Alexander is there. They have guys that can play. They have pass rushers. They have defense tack there. They have guys that can play. They have pass rushers. They have defense tackles. They have a good football team. And so to me, I'm going with the 10 here over, I know it's minus 150, but let's put our 250 on it and move it along.

Because I think there's some props here and other teams that we like a lot. Yeah, I'm definitely in on that. Do you want to hit player props or should we move to the next team um what are your what are your thoughts on the player props here well i actually bet the packers when rogers was uh was questionable about where he was going i took them to be nfc champs uh and to be the number one seed in the NFC. You can get those. It's plus 600 and plus 700. They're not going to necessarily go 13-4 or whatever this year, but I do think those are pretty tasty numbers

for a team that's in a bad division and has Aaron Rodgers. What did you say to win the number one seed? Plus 700. That's not bad, right? That's damn good, I think. Yeah, I'm good with putting some money on that you you want to use that or extra money on that or you want to yeah some of this thousand dollars on it let's i mean that that might be a good like 150 to win almost a thousand that could be that could be a pretty good wager um okay um yeah you want to put

that so you want to use that in our for extra money or for the or just part of this thousand dollars sure we'll just see how it goes yeah let's let to put that, so you want to use that for extra money or just part of this $1,000? Sure. We'll just see how it goes. Yeah, let's flag that one potentially. Okay, sounds good to me. Any other player props you want to hit? No, you know, again, I can actually be better at player props.

It's just hard for me to do the player props, man. Yeah, it takes extra studying too. Not even that, just like, it's not even the extra extra studying part it's just i just don't get that world sometimes it's it's a totally different thing to handicap um there's one that i i just asked uh our production to help look up that we can come back to because there is one that i do like um okay why don't we move to minnesota and i'll circle back on that one uh minnesota win total is nine, evenly split over under,

plus 250 to win the division, plus 115 to make the playoffs, minus 140 to miss. Man, I think this is a really, really interesting team this year. I'm excited. Under, under, done. I just don't see it, man. What did they do this offseason to get Mark Lee better? And their quarterback is...

Unlike Lamar Jackson, who tested positive, right? So there's an expectation maybe he doesn't test positive again. Their quarterback has not tested positive, refuses to get vaccinated, is talking nonsense about basically know basically bubbling himself up in in uh in in the building um they play in a tougher division and again like i ask you what did they do this offseason to get better i jeff i don't think they did a whole hell of a lot to get better um drafted offensive lineman okay cool but like patrick peterson do we love that

i'll tell you like i'm like fading teams that are their quarterbacks like i don't trust kind of what they're what they've been doing lately and their quarterback is unvaccinated it feels like the way to go here yeah uh i i'm with you jeff uh i'm i'm with you on this under i i don't know about you i i remember watching a lot of vikings games last year and i'm a fantasy football player and i'm in this very competitive league and the guy who ended up winning had dalvin cook and every game dalvin cook would go down with an injury that seemed like it was like season ending like he would he would get tackled and be like oh well, well, there goes Cook. Like how long can that team run through that dude where he gets that many touches and is that effective?

Last year, the Vikings were actually one of the healthiest teams in the league, especially at the running back spot. I just feel like this team relies so much on Cook and Thielen who's had a lot of injury problems and is getting up there in age. Justin Jefferson's already hurt. Their defense is a lot of older veteran names.

It's, you know, Kendricks and Smith and Patrick Peterson and Daniil Hunter and Tomlinson. Like, they're a bunch of veterans who I could see things kind of breaking the wrong way. And then up front, you mentioned they drafted Derrissaw. Rookie rookie they have two rookie starters up front uh you know Bradbury hasn't graded out super well Cousins you already mentioned I just feel like a lot of things need to go right

for them to hit Nova and I just don't I just don't see it I feel like they're just a team that's kind of just treading in place right like they Like they're just kind of who they are. And who they are is just okay. It's just like it's okay, right? Like it's not – look, the extra game, though, worries me because the extra game kind of throws some of these numbers off, right? I mean, 9-8 is what we're looking at. We're looking at really 8-9, right?

I mean, are they going to be an under 500 team? Definitely possible here but it does feel like i'd feel comfortable doing just doing that right like i just i just don't i just have a feeling about this team um that i just don't trust look they went seven and nine last year they won uh 10 games a year before that they went they went eight they won 13 they went eight they went 11 they won seven so they they've actually gone like bad good bad good bad good bad and then it needs to be good i guess but i don't see the good this year yeah i could jeff couldn't you see uh this season kind of going

awry and then them saying like you know their buy is week seven it's like let's see what kellen mons got in like i don't know somewhere in the middle of the season i i there's something about this team that that just feels like it could fall apart i'm 100 with you on on that uh let's get to the next team there's some there's some developments happening with the chicago bears and i think we like here yeah baby chicago bears the the just Justin Fields era has unofficially begun. Their win total is 7.5. Over is slightly better than the under, minus 105 to minus 115,

plus 550 to win the division, plus 210 to make the playoffs. That's kind of tasty. Jeff, what do you think? Well, the best bet here is Justin Fields to take the Bears' first snap. Yes, at plus 190. Reports are now that Fields is starting to get reps with the ones. Matt Nagy suggested that Fields will start to get more reps with Allen Robinson and other starters.

This is how it happens, right? You've got to get him some reps with the ones because he played well against twos and threes. You have to start somewhere, right? They started with the twos and threes. He'll get more reps than before. But here's my biggest reason why I think Fields has to start week one i've said this all along is if you're matt nagy and you're ryan pace the head coach and gm you have to show a reason

why they should keep you and the reason why they should keep you is justin fields gets better throughout the season if you play him in week 8 let's say, and he struggles early on and he doesn't show much improvement, you're gone. You're out. They'll find someone else to mentor him. You need to let him go through the rookie struggles to keep your job. But also too,

Andy Dalton provides you nothing. Nothing at all. He provides you a stopgap to what? Right. To next season? You're not winning the Super Bowl with him. You're not winning the division with Dalton.

Nothing good is coming with you playing Dalton. It's just to save your job, essentially. And again, who gives a shit what Dalton does? He's not the future of your franchise. So to me, I really like Fields here to start week one at plus 190. I love that. The book i the book i'm looking at has has it plus 257 okay even better we'll take that number yeah let's do it because i am actually going to sprinkle on that i think uh i look the the narrative here could be pretty fun

there's if we're in on fields jeff he's plus 650 to be the offensive rookie of the year. What's your number in the fields, you said? I call it plus 250. But how about him for rookie of the year, plus 650? I think that could be a fun one. So here's my concern with that. I think that's Trey Lance's number because, again, Trey Lance has a better offensive line. The Bears' offensive line is terrible.

We're recording this right now. Tavon Jenkins, left tackle, back surgery, done. They signed Jason Peters. I get that. And Jason Peters, if he's healthy, it's a great addition. But the rest of the offensive line is still like, eh. You know, Nagy, good coach, but, you know. If Trey Lance plays, which I think he will, Matt,

he'll win Rookie of the the year even if he plays 12 games he's gonna do great in that offense that offense is set up for success with great skill position players great offensive line with a great running game I mean maybe we could sprinkle some just to be safe on this like I like maybe it's it's a hundred bucks on field starts week one and a hundred bucks on on fields to win win rookie win rookie of the year. I think that's right. I mean, the Lance, I I'm with you on Lance.

Um, the thing I think could be different is what you mentioned Dalton. Like the Garoppolo is more than a bridge. Garoppolo is a good player. I think that, you know, Lance, we still have to remember he,

he, he may have all the tools, but like at the end of the day, they are in a really tough division and have to win games. And I could see them saying like, let's wait's wait you know i could see lance coming in in week six where you know i think fields could start right away um i also think fields has the sort of like degree of difficulty factor sort of um to his advantage like if if someone comes in and is like the bears franchise hero that's going to give

him a lot of juice that's a huge market with a lot of fans in the media i could see him sort of running away with that if if things break right so i'm so let's put 100 on each i'm in on on on fields it's a fun bet to have um i wouldn't hate taking them to make the playoffs plus 210 jeff like the nfc is is a top-heavy conference, but I think that there's room for a team like the Bears to sneak in as that seven seed, six seed. Do you want to put three wagers on the Bears? I mean, tell me I'm crazy.

I'm not going to help us. The thing is, we have $200 left for spending this division. We've spent already $800. We're not betting anything on Detroit, are we? I'm betting on the under. The under, all right. But, I mean, I feel like let's save the $200 to see if we don't like them, we can come back to the Bears.

But, I mean, the Lions, man, like this is going to be a wreck. Yeah, so the Lions are –, this is going to be a wreck. Yeah, so the Lions, their total is 4.5. The over is minus 150, so everyone's just saying regression to the mean or whatever for them. Plus 120 for the under, plus 750 to make the playoffs. Worst odds to win the NFC in the whole conference, plus 10,000. Let's look at their schedule. So week one, Niners at home, underdogs.

Week two, Packers, underdogs. Week three, Ravens, Bears, Vikings. So week six is their first game against the Bengals. They might be a favorite at home, maybe. Then they go to the Rams, play the Eagles. Okay, so maybe we got two wins after bye week. Steelers, Browns, Bears, Vikings, Broncos, Cardinals, Falcons, Seahawks, Packers. They're winning three of those games?

Wow. That is not a great schedule. They're actually, it looks like they're favored in some of these, but man. How? I mean, I'm with you, man. I actually think, so here's the thing. 16 games is the underdog. Wow.

Their offense has, oh, their 16 games as the underdog? Yeah. Their offense actually has some good pieces, right? Like, their offensive line, not bad. Yeah. Running back, one receiver, they're not half bad. The problem is golf, I just, Matt, I'm over golf. Like, he's going to if he feels very boosted

by sean mcveigh i just don't think detroit is going to give him kind of the the welcoming that he expects or like not like that the career turning experience that people expect him to have here yeah i i agree i mean you mentioned there are they are good up front um impressive up front now that you really look at it taylor decker ragnow is one of the best centers in the league and your boy sewell hockinson's nice piece but like their receiving core makes me sad dude paramin uh tyrell williams i guess seafist st brown i'm gonna say brown St. Brown will be good. But yeah, I mean, I know you're not betting their win total because of that.

And look, defensively, they have some players, right? But just it's just not enough. Flowers, Akuta. Yeah. They drafted Onzorike, Jamie Collins from New England. They cut Quentin Dunbar already. It's just like, I just, I think the under here, we spent our $200 and hit the under plus 120.

I mean, that's just such a gross under to play, but I agree. I don't see them winning. I could see them. I mean, at some point, they're going to want to go all in for that first pick, right? Like, I don't think golf is the long-term solution there. So I'm with you. I'll do it we get plus money on under here like that almost never happens you know i love you know

you know me man i'm give me an under and i'm i'm all about it let's do it um all right let's do so we have we have our six bets now in the um in the nfc north i'll read them off to you very quickly here i'm uh i'm not very bright with numbers. I'm trying to figure out what we're doing here. Okay. Here we go. Let's read these off here. So, we have the Packers over 10 wins. It feels silly that it's 10.

But nonetheless. Packers number one seed. We put $100 on the plus 700. I like that bet, Matt. Vikings under the nine wins. I think we agree that the Vikings might be a dumpster fire. Fields starts week one. Fields, rookie of the year.

Lions under four and a half. Now let's get to the wager that we talked about with the Browns. I love this right here. Browns and Packers win the division plus 310. What do you want to do? We have that extra money. I think we've spent 250 of it. I got to look at what we did last week with dac yeah with dac i i mean i'm 500 bucks like i i what are you what goes wrong with this let's do it you want to put on this i mean that

that just that blows uh why don't we do 250 and then okay that way we still have half our budget left for the rest of the divisions um But we can always add to that. Well, we have – that means we have $1,500 left on the extra money. This is that extra $2,000 we have to spend. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, that's $2,000. Yeah, so do $500. I love it. $500, right?

Yeah. Screw it. We got to take some swings, man. Yeah. This will net us some good money too. I'm a big fan. wings man yeah this this will net us some good money too i i'm a big fan again we could always i guess go back and and because go back and and uh change these i guess yeah i don't think our accountants are listening to this um while while you're sort of doing some back the napkin the

player prop i wanted to mention for green bay was aaron jones uh nine touchdowns i like the over there i just wanted to uh close that close that oh okay i like that one yeah a little touchdown regression from adams this is so we could we win 1500 bucks if we uh the browns and packers but wow plus 310 that that's a tasty number buddy i'm in that's a tasty tasty number all right guys we hit it we hit the north we we then we nailed it man i feel good about this division we have some good numbers here i disagree with you on the week one ravens raiders game we'll get to that we got plenty of time for that we have plenty of time for that um all right i hope you made you guys smarter hope we got you prepared for the north as always at jeff schwartz on twitter

and instagram um mm410 if you want to blast some tweets at Matt, which I think Matt is far less on social media than I am. But nonetheless, thank you guys. We'll talk to you next week. Have a great weekend.