Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - NFC and AFC South Season Win Totals and Prop Bets

Episode Date: August 26, 2021

Geoff is joined this week by Matt Ford to preview their AFC North and NFC North team win total predictions with bonus prop bet picks. But first, they start off talking about the new "alliance" that formed in college football, Geoff's new career as an inspirational speaker, and the Rich Paul lawsuit. Then they discuss how bad each of the teams in this division are, which players have a chance to break records with the extended season, and who might be able to win an MVP ring. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, August 26th. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Foer and this is Jeff Schwartz of Smarney. We're continuing our season preview with the AFC and NFC South. I guess Matt will do a little bit of that because this is going to be gross. But first, we're going to break down a couple news stories from the past few days and also talk about my new role in society as motivational speaker that's right that's right it's a big transition for you jeff you're a full-fledged member of the sports media sphere now congratulations i'll explain why on august 20th a mere six days ago jeff you sent a tweet that said the chiefs need a reliable number two wide receiver it's a must now they

obviously have some guys on their roster sammy watkins gone but there's some guys on there that some people like in their fantasy drafts and so forth um but it seems one of those one of those aforementioned people really took this one to heart jeff uh what happened here yeah so i was in las vegas and i'm watching chiefs and cardinals play and i'm just tweeting about the game as usual, and I tweet out, the Chiefs need a reliable number two wide receiver. It's a must.

It is a must. They need a number two wide receiver. They have a Hill. They have Kelsey as a tight end. They need a number two. Plenty of options. McCole Hardman, Pringle, Robinson. They drafted this kid out of Clemson as well.

Didn't get a lot of run, but maybe he's a guy to do this. They had a guy, I think his name was like Sunshine or something. I forget his last name. Played really well the other night they need number two just need to find a reliable number two and mccall hardman took this tweet by the way is the most like non-controversial take i've ever had on a player or a position battle and put it as his instagram profile picture profile picture profile picture. Profile picture. That, I'm honored, first of all, that he looks at me like that, that he needs to put that up there.

But if we're going by, like, takes, I mean, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson should have a fat head of my ass on their bedroom wall with all the crap I've said about them. I mean, this is such a small, tiny thing I said. I didn't call him out by name. I didn't, like, say he sucked. I just said they needed a reliable guy, which is true. In two seasons, McCall Hardman has had 41 catches and 62 catches.

He had 538 yards in year one, 560 yards last season. Okay, good. Let's get a reliable guy. That's it. And maybe he's that guy to uh to do so but i'm just very glad to be a a motivational speaker but the question i have matt before we get going here on some of these topics is did he know i was mitch's brother when he posted this this was my exact question i was gonna ask you this i it it occurred to me that you've probably

met him at some point, right? I've never met him, no. Never met him, but he definitely has met Mitch. It's his second year, third year on the team. Last time I saw the team was the Super Bowl, so I was there for that. But it's not like I didn't see the team. I mean, I talked to the people I knew there, but I didn't talk to McCole Hardman.

Right. I mean, I think honestly to that my my question is really for you what he clearly did here was he was like let me look for a negative media opinion about me and it's very hard to get anyone to say anything not even his name it's not even his name that's what i'm saying it wasn't even that harsh it's not even a criticism you're basically just you're that could be read in any number of ways but clearly he's like looking for bulletin board material about himself and he was like let me find some douche in the media who clearly doesn't know what they're talking about and he landed on you like what a change for you to go from like hey i'm a guy in

the league like you know people are i'm being criticized like people are wondering why i have the contract and now he's picking you as like, that guy doesn't know what he's talking about. Like, how does that feel? It feels like I should be paid to tweet more often about this stuff. I, I'm going to just start tweeting about like, like Ryan Jensen, my, my buddy in the books, you know, I'll just be like, Hey Ryan, you're just too fat, buddy.

And hopefully, hopefully that changes the way I just like start, start motivational. Hey, you're, you know, your hand usage is not good on this fat, buddy. And hopefully that changes the way I just like to start motivational. Hey, your hand usage is not good on this play, buddy. Just everyone, I'm just motivational Jeff Schwartz. So, hey, man, look, I know we're joking about it, but it is kind of interesting because we talk about this, that players find motivation in many different ways. And look, if I motivate him to be the best player he can be,

more power to you. I mean, it's an odd motivation. I get it. But plenty of people find motivation, and most often a lot of athletes find motivation in the idea that we're being doubted. I mean, Tom Brady has made a living on this, right? We're being doubted. No one believes in us.

So if this helps McColl Hardman be a better wide receiver, which it just, I giggle so hard thinking about him like sitting at home at night. Like, fuck this Jeff Schwartz guy excuse my language you know he's or fuck Mitch's brother who put this tweet

I'm gonna show I'm gonna show everyone I'm gonna show Jeff that I know that I know how to play football I can be that reliable guy or you know he's sitting at practice

or whatever it's just like every time he opens his Instagram he sees my tweet like it's it's gonna he's gonna say at some point, like all those words.

It's so funny to me. Rent free, Jeff. You're rent free in McCall Hardman's head. There's a sentence we never thought we'd say. No, no, rent free. The last part about this that it will be equally as glorious is trying to explain this to my wife tonight, because I will certainly try to explain this to her. Matt, you know my wife.

It's not going to go very well for her. So I'm looking forward to figuring out how to tell her that this is what happened. Because I don't think she'll get it. But it'll be fun to tell her tonight. That's great. I'm enjoying thinking about you explaining this to her and her being like,

why do you think I care about this? She doesn't care. Does not care at all. And she'll be like wait you tweeted something that was on it went to someone instagram and like what what why do you talk about the tech here like is there a screenshot involved yeah yeah uh it's so great so hey i'm getting more instagram followers as we as we speak uh which i'm continuing to try to go to my instagram out so hey man i am just now a a full-on motivational speaker so uh you guys get to see my rise through this podcast into becoming the next is it tony robbins yeah like the next the next motivational speaker yeah which by the way you two are like

the same size you know what's funny matt it's like i am like extremely anti-motivational like quote and speaker person like i i i the anti-motivational like quote and speaker person like i i i the people who wake up in the morning and tweet out like just the most rise and grind god like it's just i'm the anti because i've always been self-motivated which i know not everyone is so like i don't listen to any motivational like i just it does not like before a game when everyone's in that big huddle right and they're like come on i'm like i'm like outside the huddle like i does nothing from sitting down ray lewis was in that big huddle right and they're like come on i'm like i'm like outside the huddle like i does nothing from sitting down if ray lewis was talking in the huddle i'd be like i'm gonna i'm gonna go sit down like it does nothing for me so the fact that

this tweet is something that he now has on his instagram profile i mean every time it was instagram it's my tweet he's seeing. So good for you, Harman. I hope you have the best season of your life. Welcome to the media, Jeff. And if you do, do I get a cut of that money? If you get paid, do I just like, man, I feel like I should deserve some of that money. Maybe.

I think you should draft him in your fantasy drafts, even though you suck at fantasy. I did just join a fantasy. I got asked to do one. It was $100, and I said, I've wasted $100 in worse ways. Oh, yeah. Preseason WNBA. Like, you're're probably you've probably got more than that um well i can't wait to hear about that we have so much more to get to so i'm gonna

move us on to a topic that like i frankly just don't really understand so maybe you can help break it down here so obviously uh yes tuesday uh the acc pac-12 and the big 10 have announced something that they've formed some kind of alliance uh to quote stabilize a volatile environment in college sports um but basically it just seems like this is an anti-sec move to sort of consolidate their remaining power and not get left out am i I getting that right? What's the important takeaway from this deal? That they don't like the SEC conference? I mean, there's not an important takeaway other than they're trying to delay playoff expansion and they're trying to push back on the SEC dominating

all of college football so you're right the pac-12 big 10 and acd got together formed an alliance that is there's no signed agreement there's no promise of scheduling each other really right now because most schedules are locked in for the next couple of years um there's no promise an institution won't leave there's no promise they're going to work together to have a TV deal as a three, as a component of three. There's nothing other than, hey, this is our desire to work together to build college football in the vision that we might want.

And most importantly, it comes down to a couple of things, I think. One is the playoffs. So right now ESPN owns the rights to the playoffs. They own the rights to the semis and the championship, as all we have right now are the four teams, so semis and championships. They don't own the rights to any other playoff expansion. However, the thought process is if we expand to 12 teams

before 2026, when the TV deals are up, then ESPN's going to own all the rights to all of the playoff games. Well, if you're the Pac-12, the Big Ten, the Big 12 who have contracts with Fox, Fox wants a piece of that, right? CBS wants a piece of that. NBC wants a piece of that. Same as we have with the NFL where on opening weekend, there's games on four networks, right?

Four networks. So they want, this working group wants, in my opinion, wants college football to be pieced out for the playoffs to different entities to make as most money as possible. But again, nothing's on paper. So tomorrow, if SEC calls Clemson and Ohio State, it's like, hey, do you want to join our conference?

They might go, right? So it was very much a press conference to just talk about a press release they put out because there's nothing they gave us other than we want to work together. You look in a man's eyes and you shake his hand and that's your word. Yeah, in a fairytale land, that's your word.

But as soon as things are different, people will move on. So I think it's just a reaction toale land, that's your word. But as soon as things are different, people will move on. So I think it's just a reaction to what Oklahoma, Texas did. But again, it's more about TV rights, a little bit of scheduling, which they might do in the next couple of years. But trying to put on a forward face of, hey, we're attacking this quote unquote problem head on instead of having kind of five different factions fighting it out. Is it weird to you that it, it feels like college football, the only storylines that anyone's hearing about in college football right now

are like business related. It's like the NIL, the sponsorships, like it's this weird realignment stuff with Texas, Oklahoma. And now this weirdo Alliance, like it just feels, it's,

it feels like more like a business than the nfl does which is like obviously like the opposite of what it should be i'm just curious like what do you think happens as a result of this if anything or is it too early to tell i i think it's too early to tell but your point is really interesting about how we're hearing all the business of college football now well one is the supreme court ruling that that really paved the way for name engine like this, right? But secondly, Matt, is that NFL preseason practices are open to the media. They have to be. They're required to be open to the media. Fans are at these practices.

There's three preseason games, and we're getting to the last week of the preseason games. So we get to see the teams play and see the personnel and watch practice and see practice clips. Most colleges have no media access except for the first like 15 minutes, which are all individual drills. So it's mostly a mystery of what's happening at training camp. We get nuggets here and there. There's quarterback battles that we don't know about until someone actually announced. Trevor Lawrence was announced a starter today. Duh.

Right? Like, right? But on the college side, we're seeing Ohio State announce a starter. We're seeing Utah announce a starter. So we just don't have a lot of actual football to talk about until we get to week zero this week and really into week one next week. So that's why I think there's just a lot of talk about NIL and transfer rules and now this issue with kind of the business of football

because we just don't get access to training camp. Yeah, that's interesting. And also, sorry, one last point too. College football is very regionalized, right? It's much bigger in the South than it is anywhere else. And so you're not getting college football as a national topic very often. A lot of these shows that kind of drive the narrative of what we talk about in the media all day, right?

If you're a morning drive time radio host, a national radio host, this doesn't play in a lot of places. No one wants to hear about these. They want to hear about Dak Prescott and Hard Knocks first thing in the morning, right? They're not there to hear about the alliance that really didn't do anything, right? If you're on a morning talk show, you're talking about, again, the NFL and Cam Newton, Mac Jones. Are you talking about a deal of – so it's just – it's very regionalized, and that's why I think it doesn't kind of maybe get –

the attention is different than it does for the NFL, something like that. And I also think, you know, not to dwell too long on this, but it's's for a while we've had just such a steady group at the top that you know it does feel like if you're following college football you're like all right so it's probably gonna be Alabama and Clemson and Ohio State and you know a few others and then everybody else it's like your team your conference whatever that you follow um but I I just feel like it's college football has just taken a strange shape lately I I'm hopeful that this season you know there's so much fun stuff that happens that it follow um but i i just feel like it's college football has just taken a strange shape lately

i i'm hopeful that this season you know there's so much fun stuff that happens that it sort of outweighs all of the other stuff that's happening um but definitely a weird time for the sport are you excited for your your terrapins maybe oregon and maryland i was gonna say yeah definitely i think that would uh that would be a good one maryland once when i was there they had a home and home-home with Cal. My brother played in that game. Oh, that's so interesting. It was a 12 Eastern kick because it was a 9 a.m. body clock game for the Cal.

Cal started slow, and they ended up winning that game, unfortunately. No, they didn't. They beat us in California, but we beat Cal in Maryland, and Javid Best got hit so hard he threw up. And I was sitting really close and saw him get hit, and he barfed on the field. Yeah, his career could have been so much better. I know.

He was one of the best college players I watched. Which is brutal, yeah. Yeah. Very quickly, though. Nerl Nolans, I'm sorry, buddy. Nerl Nolans, no well. Yeah. Sorry, Nerl Nolans.

What did I say? All right, letural Nolans. I'm sorry, buddy. Neural Nolans. Yeah. Sorry. What did I say? Let's just hit it. So Neural Nolans. No. Well, this we're not a basketball podcast, as you all well know. But Neural Nolans is suing Rich Paul of Clutch Sports for fifty eight million dollars of lost earnings, claiming that Rich Paul, who is LeBron's agent, did little to no work to secure contracts and sponsorships for New Orleans Noel. Now, he alleges that Rich Paul ignored calls from teams interested in signing Noel and gave preferential treatment to other clients like LeBron James or Ben Simmons or Anthony Davis or whomever who are bigger stars. You had some thoughts on this.

What do you got? ours um i you had some thoughts on this what do you got well i feel sorry that he feels that he got swindled and i feel sorry that he didn't get the contract he deserved but you changed agents buddy like that's on you i i don't i don't know what what is your lawsuit what are you gonna get out of it like i'm allowed to sue my agent every time i don't get the deal I want? You know, like, I don't know. I don't know what is recourse here. I mean, he chose a different agent. Rich Paul didn't work for him as well as he thought. He didn't get the deal he wanted.

That's on him. Is this a thing that, I mean, I guess maybe the right follow-up here is like, well, what's a reasonable expectation for in the NFL or in pro sports in general for what your agent is supposed to do? And like, I don't know, why would you make a change and then have something like this happen and then say, like, well, it's the agent's fault? Like, is that is that actually true? Well, I mean, a lot of players do feel it's the agent's fault um when they don't get what they uh what they deserve um but like i i i you know obviously it's tough to know exactly what calls they did or do not have which is what he's

playing right he didn't do the work he didn't call enough he didn't he didn't do what he was supposed to do um you want to find that agent who can do that for you and seeing by the way that the New Orleans had an agent he liked right who he got along with and he left him and went to to to Paul like that's on you man like did you so you know in the NFL there's a lot of big agencies right a lot of big agents and one of them is very good at getting his his guys a lot of money but the rest of his guys don't's a lot of big agencies, right? A lot of big agents. And one of them is very good at getting his guys a lot of money, but the rest of his guys don't get a lot of money. Like he's only good for the top, top of the guys. That's what he is.

That's what he does. He doesn't pay attention to anything else, okay? I feel like Paul's in that kind of boat, right? Like he's going to get his top guys money. And if you're not one of those top guys, he's just not of interest to him. And that's your fault. I've chosen agents in my career,

whether on the football side and most recently on the broadcast side, who I know will fight for me. And they fought for me along the way. And trust me, I feel bad he didn't get the money he thinks he deserved or he would have gotten. But you chose to fire the agent you liked for promises by Paul.

I'm sure Paul thought he could get you a big deal. And when he didn't, he just didn't work as hard. I don't know how that's grounds to sue. We'll find out if this suit goes forward. But to me, this is just a situation where the consequence of you changing agents, you didn't like it and you're trying to sue to make up for it. Yeah. It's an interesting slippery slope scenario here because every single, you know, person who's represented by an agent which is actors and businesses and athletes all think that their agent could be doing more for them nerlin's noel may be right but it's also nerlin's noel you know so i don't know it's an interesting one to flag um but yeah i think uh you know poor ner Orleans, I guess us, uh, wondering why

he screwed this up. Maybe, maybe Jeff, you'll be featured in his Instagram profile picture as well. I hope so. That's my new call. Maybe it is. Um, all right, Jeff, should we get to the part of this that we're maybe a little bit good at, which is the, uh, division previews for the NFC and AFC South. Let's do it.

And look to, to start off, we'll go over the ground rules, which is we have $1,000 to spend each division. We have some leftover money off to the side that we've spent if we feel like the $1,000 per division is not enough. I think we spent $1,500 of that. I'll be up front with you as Matt and I are preparing for this. The South, these divisions suck for this, okay? We're going to go through all the teams anyways,

go through the rosters, go through win totals, props, over-unders, the same as we normally do. But finding enough bets is going to be tough. I'm telling you guys now. But I hope you enjoy them. I'm not telling you not to listen. Please continue to listen.

But this is going to be tougher than the other ones we did. Yeah, it's not our fault that the Colts and the Texans and the Falcons are boring as hell. Like, we still got to make bets on them, so let's fly. Why don't we start, Jeff, with the AFC, if that's okay? Go ahead, buddy.

So in the AFC, we do this. And by the way, we've done two other versions of this with the East and the North, right? It was the last one we did. So check those out if you haven't already uh we'll move on today through the south we're going to go in order of the uh the projected win totals um and just move down the list so the team that is uh projected to do the best in the afc south is the tennessee titans not a big surprise there uh their win total at draftraftKings is only nine,

juiced pretty heavy to the over, minus 160 to bet the over, plus 130 to bet the under, minus 115 to win the division, and minus 300 to make the playoffs, plus 225 to miss. Jeff, any reason why you don't see the Titans winning this division? None. I mean, I don't necessarily like their defense. I think they've done a decent job of bringing in pieces to really help them. Elijah Molden has done a good job so far in the preseason. I don't know how he dropped that far. They drafted Caleb Farley as well to help them at cornerback.

And so they added Bud Dupree from Pittsburgh. So defense should be better, right? Offensively, they lose Arthur Smith, which I'm really worried about, right? Because as much as you can say, hey, we're just going to run back the same sort of offense we've had, that changes with the OC. It's a very run-heavy, play-action-pass offense. But Ryan Tannehill can throw the rock. He doesn't need that offense to throw the rock.

So I'm curious about the design of the offense, how many rushes Derrick Henry will have over his career. I mean, he's had a lot of them so far. But I think they're the pick here to win the division just because I'm not betting on Carson Wentz and Jacksonville. We'll get to them in a second. I mean, Urban might quit tomorrow. And then can the Texans even field a team this year? So I'd put 250, 300, 400, 500 on Tennessee Titans division champs. So would I. No argument here.

I think that people are a little bit hesitant to buy into the Titans because they have two new coordinators. You mentioned Smith already. Last year they had some serious luck in the close games, the turnovers um and they lost a lot of guys but they replaced everybody kind of thoughtfully like you lose cory davis you get julio jones you lose you know jadavion clowney you get bud dupree um you lose yeah so malcolm butler janoris jenkins like it all makes sense um i look i i just think that, yes, they might regress, but with the extra game,

I doubt that they're going from 11 wins to under nine. Obviously, the number's not really in our favor, so let's go. I like them to win the division. And I did want to flag this player prop here. I actually don't think it would be Derek Henry that did this this year, but the question, there's a prop out there at draft kings will any player break the regular season rushing record uh the record is uh 20 2100 yards just about a little bit over um

it's plus 700 for yes i kind of felt like this was mispriced uh I'm curious what you think about that because with the extra game I feel like this is a little bit more achievable than it was any other season how far away was he last year Henry last year got to 2000 um I so when you look at the list of like the all-timers uh it's rare that someone repeats which is which sounds obvious but like the year after eric dickerson went for the rushing record like that was 84 he doesn't appear anywhere close in 85 the next year he got to 19th all-time it's very rare that someone goes in the you know top 20 and then repeats if you look at the list it's just like one name 20 different times um almost so i i kind of

have some doubts that it would be henry last year if he had one extra game he would have broken it um but couldn't you see it with mcafree this year maybe or couldn't you see it with McCaffrey this year maybe? Or couldn't you see it with Dalvin Cook or somebody, Ezekiel Elliott, who just gets a lot of volume? I mean, look, it's possible that Derrick Henry is just different than everyone else, right? And the amount of reps at that position doesn't take a toll on his body like it would someone else. But I just keep – I'm just so fearful of the pace he's at

and the carries he's at that just you know just wear down his body right and when it happens for running back it happens kind of fast right like they they don't they don't really age very gracefully and again i'm not saying he's gonna he's gonna just fall off the map i mean he had almost 400 rushes last season. Yeah. Including receiving, which is not a big part of his game. He had 397 touches last season. Yep. That is a lot. Now, you add another game on to this.

So, I don't know. I don't think it's. I just can't put it on. I can't put my money on Henry for that. I agree. I don't think it's Henry. And as producer Hank notes, 681 touches the last two years,

which is crazy, just the regular season. But if you do the average, so last year he averaged 126 yards a game. This to break the record, you only need 123 yards a game. If you do the math out through the 17 games. So I kind of feel like someone could do it uh maybe christian mccaffrey who will get to on in the nfc south but i kind of

like that one as a dart throw for plus 700 don't you possibly um but i i just think we're throwing away money with that yeah we probably are i have a habit of doing that like like that's part of it is like i mean i i'm fine with taking some long odds, but I have to have an inkling that it's going to happen. You just let all the reasons it won't happen. True. Well, let's put that in our hats. I think it's a good, maybe a better conversation topic than an actual bet.

The team that I think I'm least excited to talk about in the entire league is the Indianapolis Colts, who managed to get more boring every season. They're also projected for nine wins. Their over is even money. Their under is minus 120, plus 150 to win the division, minus 225 to make the playoffs, plus 175 to miss. Where to begin with this team? So I follow Stephen Holder, who covers the team.

It's at Holder Stephen. This is where he tweeted out about the Colts today. So he said, I'll share with you guys what I share with colleagues in the media room. I think Colts can be very good this season. I'm buying it. Defense is good. Offense line is good. Skullbush is good.

Quarterback, good enough. The fact is the Colts only have themselves for losing that playoff game last year, which we agree upon. So I'm kind of paraphrasing this. He goes, anyways, you guys know me me i don't go blowing smoke up your butt this is really an honest assessment um they have a really tough early schedule but i think they have enough so i'm generally in agreement right defense is good offensive line is good but i'm not buying this carts and wins thing right is, again, here's why.

So if you look at the development and history of quarterbacks, very rarely, if ever, does a quarterback go from being the worst in the league to anything better than average, right? I mean, going up 15, 16 spots is an incredible jump in one season. Josh Allen just did that, right, essentially.

And it's like the greatest accomplishment we've seen a quarterback from year two to three in the history, right? Like look at Wentz's career. 2017 is the outlier season when he's far and away better and third down and in the red zone than he was at any point in his career. So if Carson Wentz gets to average Matt average, that's what Phillip Rivers was last year. His average, right?

Like, they're not going to get where they think they're going to get with an average Carson Wentz. Now take into account that he missed almost the entire preseason. So, new offense, new team. He's going to come back week one, it seems like, without having almost any practice, on a hobbled foot, in a new offense, and just hit the ground running quickly, and they're going to just come out of the gate with Seattle,

who that's one of my – I liked him at plus three. I don't like him so much at minus three and a half, whatever the number is now, for week one. But, like, I just don't see Carson Wentz being better than Phillip Rivers was last year, and therefore this team to me, eight, nine, ten wins is about where I think they're going to be at. So I'm not making a wager on the colts here um i think that carson wentz and props which aren't really out yet because we don't know if he's playing or not so it's kind of hard to bet on

those if you can find a carson wentz under yards under under touchdowns i would lean in that direction matt i would too you mentioned wentz not having a lot of lead up time neither will this offensive line eric fisher coming off the injury obviously quentin nelson coming off a preseason injury ryan kelly has missed some time too this is one of the most injured teams in the league at key spots and the season hasn't even started and their buy is in week 14 like the odds are just not stacked up in their favor you mentioned their tough schedule seattle r Rams at Tennessee, at Miami, at Baltimore on Monday Night Football. Home for Houston, but they have a short week for that. At San Francisco, home for Tennessee for their first eight.

That is brutal. And that's not a time where they can get their sea legs with a new quarterback and a new offensive line. Everyone pencils that O-line in as the best in the league. I think I actually may have picked them in our positions draft, but that's like a serious issue with all the injuries. So I don't know if I like them under nine, but I do like them to miss the playoffs plus 175.

I think that's the way to play this. So here's an interesting counter to maybe miss the playoffs is I feel like you could actually get better value after that eight-game stretch for them to make the playoffs. Like, if you wait for that eight-game stretch, they're three and five in the eight-game stretch. Or maybe, Matt, they're even better, and you're like, oh, okay, they're better, they'll make the playoffs.

I don't, I, I, I just, I have a, I just, these divisions are tough to, like, trust a team outside of Tampa, and we'll get to NFC in a second. I'm okay with no plus 175, right? Is that what you want to go with? I like that. Like, are they better than Pittsburgh? Are they better than Baltimore?

Are they better than the Patriots? Are they better than the Dolphins? Yeah, so we're looking at, because we're looking at who's going to make the last wild card spot, right? If we think Tennessee's going to win the division. Chargers? Yeah, no, you're right.

It's a lot of, I mean, if we like Tennessee to win it,gers like yeah no you're right it's a lot of i mean if we like tennessee to win it then they're competing for a wild card against either pittsburgh or baltimore the patriots or the dolphins or the chargers and like you know there's always one other team that comes out of nowhere okay i'll i'll put that in for 250 i'll buy that all right you you've uh you convinced me i'll i just want to root against them man they're so boring i'll put that in for $250. I'll buy that. All right. You've convinced me. I just want to root against them, man. They're so boring. I'll take that bet.

That's what you did there. Yeah. All right. Let's get to the next team here, which is just dumpster fire upon dumpster fire. Yeah. Jacksonville is that team. Although Houston could also qualify as such. Jacksonville's win total is 6.5 split evenly on the over and the under plus 6.50 to win the division, which I know is going to get a lot of sucker bets

plus 1.40 to make the playoffs. Doesn't feel like good enough odds. Minus 1.75 to miss. Trevor Lawrence was named the starter today. Jeff, does that make a difference for you? No, and the wager to make here is them to miss the playoffs at minus 175 that i actually bet this personally at a much higher number the other night um because they're not making the playoff guys uh look i here's the thing about the preseason so it's we've now we've

gotten the point where it's like now we've gone the opposite direction of where the preseason means nothing right forever it was like we overvalued the preseason and now we undervalue the preseason means nothing, right? Forever it was like we overvalued the preseason, and now we undervalue the preseason, I feel like, right? So here's the things that you can take away from the preseason. Yes, ones versus twos, twos versus ones, you have to take into account who you're playing against, okay? So if someone's playing well against the twos, that doesn't really mean they're going to play well against the ones, but it's a good start to play well against the twos.

You can look at process, okay? I talked about the Arizona Cardinals, right? They needed to improve their offense, and their offense looked exactly the same the other night. Like, the process looked exactly the same. Jacksonville's process on offense is just brutal. Like, their play design, the lack of creativity, the lack of putting Trevor Lawrence in good spots.

And then Urban Meyer, he's a college coach. Like, he's not used to losing, okay? He's not, even in good spots. And then Urban Meyer, he's a college coach. He's not used to losing. Even in the preseason, he looks miserable, miserable out there. He doesn't hold back his body language. Their offense line is better than they showed the other night because a lot of starters didn't play. And I like Chenault. I like James Robinson.

I mean, they have some playmakers on offense. Defense, not as talented. Travis Etienne now, who they wasted that first-round pick on, out for the season. I think not make the playoffs at 175. Matt, it's a little bit of juice. That's the best bet here. I mean, I'm fine with that.

I'm fine with the under. This has got to be one of the most, the biggest question marks in the league. This is definitely one of them, what their goal is. I mean, the thing about Jacksonville that's so confusing to me is the top five teams that spent the most money this offseason, Jeff. Buffalo, San Francisco, New England, Seattle, and Jacksonville. Like, what exactly did they get?

They got Marvin Jones. They got, like, some pieces in the secondary, but they didn't walk out of free agency with, like, you know, a blue chipper anywhere um you mentioned their defense josh allen was like a very highly regarded pick a year or two ago uh hasn't really turned into anything that whole defense is a mess i could see this i could see urban pulling a nick saban on us here um i it's just which way you want to go in terms of how they're going to disappoint. I think the under is pretty good because you're getting better odds,

but I'm fine either way. Yeah, I think the thing about it is, I think they beat the Texans twice. I think there's wins possibly on their schedule. And also, too, if they figure it out at some point throughout the season with Trevor Lawrence, they could rattle off a couple wins here that we kind of – unexpected wins. And so that's what I worry about with taking – I mean, I'm fairly certain they're not – I mean, they've got to have a season that is unbelievable to make the play.

I'm good with laying the 175 on this one. Okay. I'm fine with that, too. Trevor Lawrence could turn into andrew luck and prove us all wrong um yeah i'm and that would be great like i'd be fine to miss i'd be fine to miss that bet and have them be entertaining yeah um all right we got one team left in the uh in the south um if we spend more than 37 seconds on them we're probably doing you guys a disservice. Yeah, it's Houston. Win total's four, plus 3,000 to win the division, plus 500 to make the playoffs.

Anything here? No. The easy pick is the under, obviously. They're a dumpster fire. We don't know if Watson's going to play or not play. No talent really on the roster. Brand new coaching staff. I mean, isn't the play here, Texans go 0 and 17 plus 2000 i mean the

watson thing actually makes me kind of feel like the play unfortunately would be the over it's like if he plays three games then they go two and one and they have to win two other games is he gonna play this year though who knows like well i don't i i think it's kind of weird that we're assuming he's not like he's on the team they're doing this weird thing of like oh well maybe we'll trade him and you know there's interest out there it's like what if they do trade him and what if they get back to uh and then all of a sudden like yeah it's something I don't know um I just don't feel like I don't think that Deshaun Watson's going to sit on their roster and not play or not get traded unless this legal thing takes a course

that it probably should but like we've seen this with the nfl a lot where someone's in hot water and then you look up and you're like huh like that player is just like back and nothing seems to have happened that's kind of strange like i don't know i i kind of feel like you could sneaky get a little value taking the over here but why like why would anyone want to do that? I think that's a really good thought, actually, right? Is everyone's going to bet the under, right? So I think the number's even moved. But if Watson does play half the season,

I mean, they're going to get enough wins because he's that good. If he plays five games, then they probably hit this. Or they at least push it. Like, honestly, he's that talented. Yeah. I would just stay away from the Texans. We have a little bit of money left to spend this division. We can roll it over because...

Yeah. I mean, what about Tennessee Indy to finish top two in division? Minus 200. Too much, Juice? Yeah, too much. Do you trust Carson Wentz? No, I don't. But then again, if they don't finish that way,

then Jacksonville is, you know, then we might be screwed out of that playoff bet. But we'll see. I'm very happy to leave this division behind, Jeff, and move on to the Super Bowl champs. Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide.

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UL's report results vary. Non-endorsement. Let's get to Tampa Bay. Let's do that. So little money left over. Maybe we'll use it here. The Bucs. Everybody's coming back.

Win total 12. Evenly split on the over and the under. Minus 110. Minus 200 to win the division. Minus 700 to make the playoffs. Plus 500 if you want to bet on some injuries for them to miss. What do you think? Over 12?

Yeah. And this one feels not stealing, but a little easy, right? So we talked about last year they were going to start slow. I nailed this take, right? They're going to start slow. Now, they were a little slower than I thought, but then after the bye, boom, they were off. They play a division with Atlanta and Carolina,

who we don't know what they're going to be this year. Saints too. New Orleans is going to start Jameis most likely, and they'll be okay with Jameis, but probably not going to be this year. Saints, too. New Orleans is going to start Jameis, most likely. And they'll be okay with Jameis, but probably not going to have to be a playoff team. And remember, they get a second-place schedule this year because they were the second-place team in the South. So they kind of get an easier way to navigate the season. And looking at their schedule.

I mean, look, Dallas, obviously, week one. Dak Prescott is hopefully healthy, ready to go. But then you have Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford in his third game, Cam, Tua, Hertz, Dalton, I guess, Winston, Fitz, Jones, Wentz, Ryan, Josh Allen, right? Winston, Darnold, Wilson, Darnold. They're going to win over 12 games. Dude, I'm with you. Everyone's talked about the continuity.

We have nothing special to say about that, but I don't recall a team bringing back every single important piece from a Super Bowl winning team ever, including the coaches. It's crazy that a Byron Leftwich or whomever didn't get that to get a head coaching job somewhere. Last year, watching the Bucs all season, the reason that people like us were a little slow kind of getting behind them for the playoffs

was you never knew what team was going to show up every week. And that was like their big downfall. Some weeks, the offense would sputter, the defense would kind of carry them. Some weeks, the offense would light up and the defense was seemingly nowhere to be found. They were a really inconsistent team. Football Outsiders had them from Warren Sharp.

They finished 32nd in the variance metric last season. So every game, you just didn't know what was coming. But they still went 11-5. So if you assume that they kind of steady this ship, that Brady's age doesn't take too much of a toll, which like, let's be honest, when's that going to happen? I think that this feels like a pretty solid over 12. The Bucs also have only won 12 games one time in the

franchise history that feels like a thing tom brady knows and wants to change um especially with the extra game so i could see them rolling off 12 and 5 or 13 and 4 without even that much of a stretch tom brady mvp plus. What do you think? Wow. I mean, I think it's Pat Mahomes to lose. But, I mean, if the Bucs go 14-3 and Tom Brady just beats himself, like, we're passing up on throwing 100 bucks on that? We still have 250 left over from the other division.

I do like that. I like that as our roll it over that's uh that's pretty fun uh right i mean i i just think it's it's it's worth it right i mean he he's i mean plus 1400 you put 100 bucks on that sure let's do it okay let's do that uh go with that leading league and passing touchdowns for plus 500 that one's that one's kind of feels yeah that feels... I guess if he wins the MVP, he wins that one too, right? Let's pick one or the other.

Yeah, let's take the odds. I could see it. If it's one of those seasons where three or four guys kind of deserve it, but Brady goes 14-3 and has an incredible season, they'll just give it to him as the cherry on top. Yes. I like that. I like that one a lot.

Yeah, love the Bucs this year. I like that. I like that one a lot. Yeah, love the Bucs this year. They're going to be super fun to watch. The rest of this division is a total question mark, in my opinion. Yes. Yes, agreed. I mean, the Saints are the next up. Their win total is at nine.

It's plus 100 to take the over, minus 120 for the under, plus 350 to win the division, plus 110 to make the playoffs, minus 120 for the under, plus 350 to win the division, plus 110 to make the playoffs, minus 130 to miss. Interesting. Jameis Winston, are you buying this? What's going on? Well, Winston's going to start for them.

I'm buying he has a better season than most think. It was hard to find Winston touchdown props. I feel like anything you get about anything over 30 like I think there's a great wager if you can get I don't know what the number

is going to be because he's not officially starting it so I haven't put a number up yet I mean I think it's going to I think his number would be around I mean he's thrown

22, 28, 19, 19, 33 I feel like his number is going to be around 30 I would take the over on Winston touchdowns if he plays the entire season Saints have the best offensive line in football.

They have a great offensive line. They don't have as many wide receiving weapons as you would hope with Thomas kind of beat up, right? Defensively, they can rush the pass. They're good. Secondary, right, with Lattimore. They're going to be good on defense. It's just offensively, you know, can Winston not turn the ball over

and are they going to have some young wide receivers step up? We saw Marquise Calloway have a great preseason game the other night. Obviously, again, preseason can he carry that over? So I would take Winston over

for touchdowns, which we don't have on our sheet, so I can't really give you an actual bet to take there. But the Alvin Kamara rushing yards over 945, it's plus 100. That would be career high for him by about 15 yards. That feels pretty decent, or really, actually the best one might be Kamara rushing plus receiving over 1,500 when he's had scrimmage yards over 1,500 three of his four seasons. I like that one.

That's an interesting play. My point of view on the Saints basically is they have got to hit bottom at some point um that you're right about the offensive line but we've seen this with some quarterbacks where it's like oh like tom brady's gone all of a sudden the offensive line doesn't look so good um i could see that happening with drew breeze who was like very much a timing quarterback and you know got rid of the ball kind of early i could see the offensive line kind of regressing with the jamis winston experience remember that the exact thing happened in tampa where the offensive line was whatever and then they draft tristan

werfs and tom brady comes and it became one of the best in the league um the saints d every year seems to thrive on just like having dudes to roll out there it doesn't seem like that's the case anymore they have a lot of young guys rookies uh undrafted guys they lost a lot of names they just don't have the depth that they usually do um i look this isn't the saints year michael thomas you mentioned it just doesn't feel like the pieces are all there for them to go and make some run nine is pretty low but I would fade the Saints I would say that you know I don't really like any of the numbers here but I'm I'm just not in on them this year I think that the point you made about things kind of can fall apart sometimes when the quarterback leaves right so this offense has gone by without having really you know an excellent group of wide receivers it's hard to find a really

prolific passing offense without a couple a couple not just one wide receiver right we know thomas is very good now that thomas is hurt and i don't think he's starting the season right i think he's not starting the season right and what does this offense become with not having Drew Brees in it, right? To kind of make up the difference in quick passing, getting the ball out quickly, getting the ball into guys' hands. So to me, without Brees, I think the story is the offense and really the skill position players are going to thrive. And that does worry me as far as wagering anything on the Saints,

other than I think Kamara will be the outlet for Winston I think Camara will have a big season yeah I mean that's that's a play I'd be willing to make for sure um but yeah you're right I mean without Michael Thomas like cool cool highlights of of Callaway and Winston in the preseason like let's see that when they have to go to Tampa Bay and win a game like I just don't see it. I'm with you there. All right, we got two more teams, and the next one I have, I couldn't give you anything on this. I have no idea.

Your favorite team every year, the Falcons. What do you, let's see, they're 7.5. People seem to like them. I don't get why they're minus 135 to go over, plus 115 to go under, plus 900 to win the division, plus 190 to make the playoffs, minus 240 to miss. You got nothing, huh? I mean, what are they, right?

So Arthur Smith comes over from Tennessee, and I really like what he did in Tennessee, but he's now a head coach, and we've heard nothing from them, which I actually think is good, right? To kind of not hear anything happening in Atlanta. Their starters haven't played at all, yeah. Which, again, is pretty silly to me. But the offensive line, I mean, some concerns there happening their starters which is still which again it's pretty silly to me but you know offensive line i mean some concerns theirs are trying to rebuild their way through you know

through the offensive line um they drafted two guys this year we'll see how much run drew dalman and jaylen mayfield get obviously we know with with ridley and russell gage and with kyle pitts and and and the weapons they have uh also Hayden Hurst as well. They're going to be – I think they're going to be good on offense. I think Matt Ryan will have a really big season. I don't know if we have Matt Ryan props on the board here, but I feel like Matt Ryan might have one of his better seasons in his career. He's with a really competent OC.

It's a lot like Shanahan's offense when he had that breakout year. But defensively, they can't be any worse, which we understand, right? But I don't know what they are defensively. That's my concern about really any wager here. I mean, Dean Pease is their defense. Great. He's been a longtime DC for a lot of years.

But they haven't developed talent there. And I know they have a new coach. I got to see them develop the talent before I decide I'm in the fact again I think offensively they could be really good really good um and I'd be willing to if we can find Matt Ryan props which again is hard to do some of these there's not like one centralized place where it's like find gambling props for us it's not not like a centralized um centralized place um but to me Matt Ryan feels like like if we could find a number on him, would be the way to go here.

I guess. That's interesting. I have a different player prop read, which I'll get to. But I just think. I'm curious what it's at here. It's at 44-50 for Matt Ryan, which will put him less than last. 260 yards a game. So that's, I mean, how many a game?

260-ish. I mean, he's been over that for three straight seasons. Before that, he was over that for one, two, three, four, five seasons. It doesn't seem like they have a backup to play when things go bad, right? He's been over that number over 260 a game, like by far over 260 a game every year but one in the last nine. I like that. I'd be open to that.

He also doesn't miss games generally, knock on wood. So, yeah, I'd be open to that. I just don't have a number. Oh, it's over 115. It's over 115. I mean, excuse me, minus 115. Sorry. I'm willing to put that in the mix. Some general thoughts on them.

It seems like everyone thinks Atlanta's problems were coaching related. That's obviously true. But their roster is worse. Like a lot of the few talented guys who they had last year they a lot of the the you know the few talented guys who they had last year a lot of them are gone um they were also weirdly like pretty healthy last year julio was the one who obviously wasn't but like even todd girley was healthy last season so it's a little bit hard to project that they'll get that lucky again um it just doesn't feel like

this team's trying that hard to win this year which is always a flag of like hey maybe go under here well i i disagree there i actually think they are because they drafted kyle pitts like if they if they weren't going to try to win this year they would have not drafted a quarterback in my opinion well then i mean they would have drafted quarterback in my opinion then they would have signed a running back better than mike davis they would have signed you know yeah but they would have built up that defense a little bit more but i don't think the running back again we talk about this all the time like i'm not really betting on running backs being the reason why i like or dislike a team fine but like if you look at their roster construction as a whole

like you got matt ryan with you there you got jake matthews who's not worth the price that he has you know they have these guys on defense their next three top paid guys are Grady Jarrett, Deion Jones, Dante Fowler. Then it's Pitts. And then from there, it's like a bunch of kind of whatever guys, like other than Ridley, you look at the rest of their team and there's like no standout household names on this whole squad. It feels like they're kind of waiting to get through this sort of contract flotsam that they have from leftover from the Super Bowl era still.

And I don't think, you know, there's a lot of pressure on Arthur Smith to deliver right away. I think this is sort of like a bridge between this era and the next. I do think Smith, you know, we've seen it with his offense in Tennessee that he could maximize what he's got. I really like two players on their offense. I think Mike Davis is going to go crazy this year. There's nobody behind him that's going to steal carries in any situation. And this comparison is unfair, but as a runner, him and Derrick Henry are both kind of big dudes who are going to make one downhill move and just go.

I think he might have a pretty good season. So what do you have for him? I don't have anything for him, but I do have something for Kyle Pitts. So Kyle Pitts to break the rookie tight ends receiving yards record is plus 300, which doesn't seem very favorable. But it's less than 1,100 yards is the record. It's 1076. So when you actually do the math there, Jeff,

it's 64 yards a game would be enough for him to break that record Ridley is the only other guy who's going to get targets on that whole team I think they're going to just give him the rock constantly I have I'm with you there like are we

so Matt Ryan I mean excuse me Kyle Pitts over break where he touched okay so plus I'm good there. Do you want to play that? Yeah, let's play that.

I think that's a fun one. Okay. So that's it. What's the juice on that one here? Plus 300. Oh, plus 300. I like it. Okay.

We have that rollover money from the other one still. Let's do that. Plus 300. So let's put 150 on that one because we have the Mike Davis, by the way, is 805 rushing yards. Is that a good number for anything? Oh, yeah. 800 rushing yards for 17 games?

Hell yeah. Okay, so Davis over. Okay, there's a lot of math. Okay, yeah, Davis over 800. Yeah, I actually like that one, right, because he's the only guy they have there to really be the workhorse. And we know Arthur Smith wants to run the ball. Yeah, who's going to get carries besides him?

Like, if he's healthy, you know, that's a real, this is the chance for him to have a career year. I'm with you there. All right, let's get to the Panthers while I do some of this. Another team, man, I have not the slightest idea what to expect from the carolina panthers i actually have a read here um i like them as a team to go over their seven and a half wins i'll get to that after we sort of run through this but uh their total is seven and a half minus

115 for the over minus 105 for the under plus 900 to win the division plus 210 to make the playoffs and plus 200 to have a winning record which is a bet i really like the thing is jeff like obviously sam darnold is that is a tough one to be confident about but you look at the rest of their offense maybe they're not great up front but their specialists are unreal robbie anderson dj mo Moore, and this Terrace Marshall kid who, Terrace Marshall would be starting on most of the teams that we've talked about today, and most, you know, a lot of other teams in the league. Last year, a few things went wrong for them. Obviously, some injury issues. They had a really brutal schedule. They lost a ton of close games, and they had red zone problems. They just could not stick it in in the red zone,

and that was partially Teddy Bridgewater, and it was partially not having christian mccaffrey who's just their go-to guy obviously uh in the red zone if he's back and if he's anything close to what he is i get that you're not a big running backs guy jeff but he in my opinion is like has potential to be like an all-all timer in a way that only a few others in the league derrick henry being one of them has a chance to be so like put himall timer in a way that only a few others in the league derrick henry being one of them has a chance to be so like put him in the mix they're going to improve quite a bit um and the other thing look darnold's i don't think either of us think he's going to be great but look at the ryan tannahill experience when he left an adam gaze team he went from

under 500 quarterbacks and now he's 18 and 8 with mike rabel as a starter in two years so i just think that he's going to be better they have enough around him to make him competent their defense has like a lot of interesting young players on it they should get better um and this division i don't like the saints we just talked about the falcons i think they can squeeze nine wins out we'll have to get over seven and a half because that's their win total, right, for us. But plus 200 to have a winning record. Well, so here's the wages we already... I get what you're saying about Carolina.

I just kind of have to see it before it happens. This is where the stats can be a little misleading, I've seen it sometimes. So last year, we hear this stat about, oh, they were bad in one-score games. Or Teddy Bridgewater was like 0-8 in one-score games. A couple of them were the defense giving up like 37 points points and then he gets a ball back with eight seconds left and he's supposed to go down the field and get a field goal it wasn't all teddy bridgewater's fault um

i um we're we have no more money for this division so here's what we have so far like here's the discussion right is we're doing this for what we think we can win okay we have tom brady uh excuse me bucks over 12 okay we have 250 or 250 dollars kamara rushing receiving over 1505 right we have that and we use 250 on that one matt ryan over 44 50.5 again i mean he's he has averaged over 260 yards for eight of nine years okay we put 250 on that one we use the kyle oh sorry and we used davis rushing over uh over 800 at a minus uh 110 at 250 so those are the four wagers with our thousand dollars then we use the extra 250 from the other division on tom brady mv Brady MVP and Pitt's tight end record so which one of those are we taking away to do the over on a team we don't quite know what we're doing with it

I'm fine passing I like what we've got and God thank God we can end this this these two terrible divisions and get to next week with the two most fun divisions which I believe is the West correct if I'm not mistaken yeah man NFC West best division and AFC West one of the most fun divisions. Which I believe is the West, correct, if I'm not mistaken? Yeah, man. NFC West, best division, and AFC West, one of the most fun to spec out. It's going to be great. I mean, the most... It's a great episode, by the way. And the thing we've learned about this is

I'm now a certified motivational speaker. I am beyond excited that I can share my tweets to the world. And the one thing I never realized matt as either is like my my tweets do have reach i just never believe they do like it just never it just never it just always does surprise me still you're a media mogul jeff before we go one one last thing i want to ask about is teddy bridgewater was named the starter today uh Denver over Drew Locke. What do you think of that? I mean, he's the safer choice. He's going to not turn the ball over, and he's going to run the offense.

But, I mean, they need Aaron Rodgers, right? I mean, that's not going to do much for them this year. They should have drafted Justin Fields. Justin Fields, right? They should have just done that. But they didn't, and they're going to have to go this year with Bridgewater and then probably spend some draft picks on a quarterback next year. Yeah, I agree.

That'll be interesting. I mean, you're in a division with – you're the fourth-best quarterback in that division. Carr's better than Bridgewater. Like, I just – you have to search far and wide to find a division where the fourth best quarterback is winning that division. If there's not injuries, right?

Like it's hard to find. I mean, we've Aaron Rogers, Pat Mahomes, um, uh, what Seattle, Russell Wilson won last year.

Right. Um, and then you have, uh, um, Ryan Tannehill and Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Like, are we, are we telling me that, uh, I don't know what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what are we, are we telling me that, I don't know what, what a team we're going to talk about now. I didn't even forget.

It's going to win. Yeah. Teddy Bridgewater is going to come close to the winning division, making the playoffs. No. Yeah. I'm not sure. They might have the fifth best quarterback in the division. You forgot about Mariota. Oh, you're right. Yeah. So I'm, I mean, okay. But I get what they did. But that's a no for me. All right, everyone.

Really appreciate it. Glad you guys were able to join us. Our numbers are going great. It's good to have football back. And we should have some news on the front of an actual sponsor for this podcast, besides our beautiful voices. So, all right, everyone. Have a great weekend.

Talk to you next week.