Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - NFC Full Offseason Grades

Episode Date: May 18, 2021

Geoff is joined by Matt Ford as they move their focus over to the NFC to grade each team's entire offseason. They discuss which teams might fall from grace after years of success, which teams have all the pieces in place to contend, and how some teams with new quarterbacks might fare. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Tuesday, May 18th. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford and this is Jeff Schwartz of Smart With You. We went over the AFC teams last week. We're going over the NFC teams and the off-seasons that they had. But first, let's bring in Matt. How are you, buddy? It's been a while. I'm good, man. How fun is it that the NFL now, with the schedule release, there's just something always going on in the NFL. They've done an amazing job of just capturing our attention 12 months a year. I was so pumped for the schedule release. That's new for me.

I usually don't care, but I was fired up this time. Well, they moved it later in May than they normally had. This is kind of a reaction to last year, right? Last year's schedule release was later because of COVID. This year, it's later again. The NFL owns August through May year, right? Last year's schedule release was later because of COVID. This year, it's later again. The NFL owns August through May now, right? Like now is we kind of, now it's a step back, right? We talk about these teams.

We talk about the schedule. There's a couple of player transactions here and there. And otherwise, it's a little bit of a break now. We get into NBA playoffs and hockey playoffs and baseball going strong. But the NFL owns all of it. And to me as a fan, really as a player too, playoffs and hockey playoffs and baseball going strong but the nfl owns all of it and to me as a fan really as a player too the schedule symbolizes it's real like the season's real right because now you see everything and what's so what gets me every time too matt is that we already

know who every team is playing right but then the schedule comes out we act like oh my god this team you have to go to these four we knew that already guys like we already knew but now it feels real because it's on paper yeah totally and it's also more fun after the draft because now i mean the example that comes to mind is uh jets panthers week one like to have that right away be the darn old revenge game like to put that on the schedule first like that's really fun you know like to see who the bucks are gonna play first they're playing dallas like oh that's so exciting it's just it gets you so fired up for week one have you made a week one bet yet the one i tried to make was the uh the falcons the fan but i think the line moved i saw it when

i was doing my for Fox. It was like at two or one and a half. I think it's no longer there anymore. Who are they playing? They're playing the Eagles at home. Okay, so you took Atlanta Ling too. Yeah, Atlanta, I mean have you made any wagers yet?

I haven't, but I knew you would have. That's why people listen to this podcast. We've already made a week one bet. It's May. It's May 14th. Let's go. Yeah. You know what's going to be?

I'll tell you what. You know what's going to be a lot of value come week one is you're watching a football team. Everyone's going to bet on the Chargers in this week one game because it came out as a pick-em. I think it's already moved out to Chargers as a road favorite, which a brand new coach across the country is a road favorite. I know I like Herbert, but guys, Washington can play some football here. So I'm already having my eye on that one

for week one already. Well, luckily we've got some time to see where that line shakes out. So we're not too late to jump on that one. But I agree. I like washington especially as a home dog let's fly what do you look for as a fan in the schedule as a fan i mean if i'm looking at my specific team the first thing you got to look at is where your buy is i feel like you can

tell right away if your season's going to be a shit show if you've got like the week four by and you're like oh my god we're screwed or week, you know, 13 by that's number one. And then, you know, you got to circle your primetime games. You're playing Thanksgiving or not. Washington plays on Thanksgiving quite a bit. I was looking out for that one. Yeah, those are the big, those are the big ones for me. What about you?

What's funny is players look at the buy too. We want, we want a break. No, it's important. You know, I think mentally to have the bye, right? Because you're grinding all through training camp. You know, and I'm with you. The bye ideally is going to be in week, I guess it's now a week out. But, you know, week 9, 10, 11 probably. Kind of right in the middle of the season with a Thursday game week 4, 5, 6.

You know, Thursday game is also a mini uh a mini buy so it's not that we don't want to play it's that we want to take a mental break physically of course the rest is great but not having to worry about the stress of preparing the anxiety of preparing just the wear and tear of the season you just take a break that week that you're not playing it's funny you mentioned a late buy because tampa last year had the latest bye, I think, on record. Week 13, they didn't lose after that. That's true. It was so helpful for them. Now, they played an easier competition after the bye, but they went in and kind of rejuvenated their offense and figured things out.

And that's what you can do via the bye. But your Washington football team had the oddest quirk, I think, of any schedule, which is they end the season with five straight division games. They go, I believe it's Dallas-Philly-Dallas-Philly Giants. Could be, you know, Philly-Dallas-Philly, whatever. That's a really odd schedule. I do not understand. I don't have a great reason for why they did that. Yeah, I mean, we'll see.

I think the NFC East will be a bit better this year, and that, I guess, might be a good segue to our preview. But yeah, that will certainly be very interesting at the end of the season. Yes, it will. And so, all right, let's get to it. We'll talk each team like we did last time. We'll give them a grade. I think we'll do this in the lens we did it with the AFC, which is like, can they beat the Chiefs, right?

Because I feel like Tampa, and maybe we'll start in the NFC South here just to make it so we can talk about Tampa real quick. Sure. It feels like Tampa is the overwhelming favorite in the NFC right now. I do like one other team, and we'll get to them in a second. But, you know, you look at their offseasonseason, and of course, they brought back everyone, which it's a good thing, I think. I don't think it's a bad thing. And Matt, in year two, they should be better in this offense, right? With Bruce Arians in a full offseason

with Tom Brady. And I like their draft. They went and got Joe Tryon. I think a really good defensive end. Prospect out of Washington to help. The guys that are getting older on that D-line, the Kyle Trask ones, whatever. They drafted an offensive lineman from Notre Dame to provide some depth. And we know guys from Notre Dame do a good job on the offensive line. So, look, I give them an A just because they won the Super Bowl and they just brought everyone back. But to me, they're the clear favorites until proven otherwise.

Yeah, I mean, two points on that. First of all, the gambling odds, which obviously are near and dear to us, really reflect that. At one of the books, I usually use Tampa's plus 255 to win the NFC, which is just so insane. I mean, the Chiefs are at plus 233, so that's pretty steep too. That's prohibitive favor territory. And, you know, every year at this time, it usually feels like we look at the teams and we're like, well, you know, how would it be that the 49ers wouldn't get back to the Super Bowl?

The Rams wouldn't get back to the Super Bowl? It's, you know, like it's easy to just sort of pencil these teams in every year. But you actually don't look like an idiot when you pencil a Tom Brady team into the Super Bowl. Just think about this, Jeff. Tom Brady's been to four of the last five Super Bowls, five of the last seven Super Bowls, and nine of the last 19 where he was healthy. I mean, it's a pretty good bet that they're going to end up being back in the Super Bowl, or at least the NFC championship. It makes no sense to bet on them. But when you look at the rest of this NFC, it's like, who else can you really count on, especially if Rodgers is in flux in Green Bay?

I think the Bucs are really primed to get back to at least the NFC championship. And their schedule is, if you look at Warren Sharpe's analytics and other people that kind of do the same idea, which you take, you don't look at strength of schedule per se from win percentage last year, right? Because everything changes year in and year out. You look at what the Vegas over-under is for the win. So according to Warren, Tampa has one of the five easiest schedules looking at kind of where Vegas projects each team.

Obviously, that's not always, you know, the team might be better or worse, but they have a second-place schedule, right? They won the Super Bowl, and most times you win the Super Bowl, you finish first place in your division, but they finish second place because the Saints end up being in first place. So let's get to New Orleans here, because I think this could be a down year for them.

Look, Jameis Winston is the quarterback. I don't think it'll be Taysom Hill, but they lost Drew Brees. They lost Emmanuel Sanders. They lost Jared Cook. They lost Trey Hendrickson. They lost Janoris Jenkins and Sheldon Rankins and Malcolm Brown,

which some of those are role players as well. But, you know, they re-signed Marcus Williams, P.J. Williams. I don't know, man. Winston is not as bad as he was in Tampa but he's also not Drew Brees and I think this I'm down on the Saints this year they don't really get it I mean they're like a c-grade I think I mean they were kind of stuck with quarterback especially with their cap situation but they haven't been able to do with Drew Brees why are they going to do with Jameis

Winston yeah I feel like this is one of those teams that this is a big thing for me this year is what is their sort of what is their strategy reflect about their self-scouting and I feel like they don't even really know what they are to be honest like I feel like they think this is one of those years where they can maybe just get by with a good coach and Camara and Michael Thomas hopefully has a little bit of a bounce back year for them but like you look at their defense man like that defense every year we're so used to it just being loaded like we're just used to the saints just having a lot of guys who are good uh but now i feel like that defense is like williams latimore and uh demario davis you know like that's kind of all of the talent on that team on offense like yeah it's

we'll see what happens without one of the seven best quarterbacks of all time leading it. This feels like one of those years where there could be just like a big sort of cycling that happens every couple of years of like a few teams sort of move out and a few teams sort of move in. Like I could see this happening with Pittsburgh and the AFC, like the Saints. We could just be at the end of an era, you know, like they were unbelievable. They were competitive every single year for 15 years or something like let them have a down year or two figure something out figure out the quarterback thing um i just don't i agree i think they're i think right now they're fourth or fifth in terms of likeliest to win the nfc um so i i don't i don't buy it i think that would be lighting your ticket on fire but uh you know we'll give Sean Payton the benefit of the doubt.

But I'm not a big fan of where they're headed. I'm not either. A team that everyone is a fan of, it feels, is the Carolina Panthers. Everyone is very excited for what they've done and what they've built over the last couple of years with Matt Rule as their new coach. They drafted J.C. Horn and Terrence Marshall Jr. in the first and second round. They drafted Brady Christensen, a very quality offensive lineman out of BYU. Chuba Hubbard as well, explosive running back at Oklahoma State. They bring back McCaffrey, obviously.

They re-signed Taylor Moten as well. And Sam Darnold, the trade, obviously, from the Jets. They basically, you know, they're going to use him this year and they have his fifth-year option picked up, so it made sense to not draft a quarterback, eight overall. The one thing that concerns me a little bit is we have to assume Darnold is average, right? Or above average to get to be good enough, right?

Like, I think they've done a good job this offseason building their team up. I think I give them a B grade for getting the team. But I'm not sure that Darnold's the guy. Plus, these trendy picks every year to improve, I don't buy them. Like, it doesn't seem to work every year. The trendy team to be, eh, I worry about that. But I think Carolina did a B. You know, there was really no option quarterback where they were drafting. Well, excuse me, I take that back. There I think Carolina did a beat. I think, you know, there was really no option quarterback

where they were drafting. Well, excuse me to take that back. There was, it was Justin Fields. They just didn't think he was going to be there, I think, at eight. So they went with Sam Darnold. I really like where they're headed. I, you know, I wouldn't necessarily put them

in like a title mix conversation, but they've got an opportunity in this division potentially. I feel like their defense is flying a little bit under the radar. This year they signed Hassan Redick, Denzel Perryman, A.J. Bouye. Those are kind of guys where you're like, huh, I didn't know that they would have landed on Carolina. They seem to have signed every under-the-radar guy I like.

I like Dan Arnold because our guy Peter Schrager is all over him. David Moore has been very reliable for Seattle for a while. I like their draft. I think they have a lot of good young talent on defense. You bring McCaffrey back. They have a bunch of good receivers. I could see them making some noise. Bridgewater to Darnold I don't think is much of an upgrade or downgrade,

but I don't think that really matters. I think that they're going to be competitive and fun. Yeah. really matters i think that they're going to be competitive and fun yeah um you know they just they they botched that all that whole um the whole bridgewater thing i didn't get why they paid him so much money originally like they should just suck last year and got trevor lawrence but they paid bridgewater and people argue that oh bridgewater was bad in close games some of them he was but look at the actual box scores of these games or just go back and watch him he got the ball at the 20 yardyard line needing to score a touchdown,

a two-point conversion with 50 seconds left and no timeouts. Like, come on, guys. He's not going to win that game. He got the ball back against the Raiders. They were down 34-30 after the Raiders had scored to go ahead with like seven seconds left. Like, come on. Like, some of these close game losses aren't on Teddy Bridgewater.

So the idea that Sam Darnold's going to flip those around, guess we'll find out the one concerning thing is Teddy Bridgewater did say in an interview that they did not work on red zone in two minute as much as he had in other places and that does concern me because in the NFL you're bread is butter in the red zone and in two minute offense and defense and Matt Rule has got to figure that out he's got to change what he did in college and college is not as important you're always kind of in a two-minute drill right you're going up tempo full speed you have a lot more big plays the red zone you know might not be as important but that does concern me Matt so hope hope that he has figured out in year two how to how to get that done let's move to the Falcons here um I have Falcons I hate saying this because they always

just like rip my heart out but they have talent, man. Every year, Jeff. Every year you do this. And if Arthur Smith can get the offense going in the right direction, they're going to be good. Now, defensively, they just got to be better. And with Dan Quinn out of there, I just hope talent-wise they can develop some talent.

They drafted players, especially in the defensive line, just never developed them. So I think the Falcons are going to be better than we think. I'm excited to kind of gamble on them again without Dan Quinn as their head coach. Godspeed, Jeff. Godspeed. Two things about the Falcons.

The first is I strongly think they're going to trade Julio Jones before the season starts. We'll get to that. I think I know where he's going. But I also think they are in a position, their cap, you look at their roster, they're just the victims of their own success from a few years ago where they got really excited and gave their top guys a bunch of huge contracts. Their roster is in shambles. They have an

unbelievable amount of dudes you've never heard of who they're going to need to rely on to do anything and i look that's fine i think that they should try to sort of bottom out this year get some of those big contracts off the roster the other thing about arthur smith like i think i think that was a good hire i think it makes sense that they didn't go all in on a quarterback just yet like let's see what they have let's see if matt ryan's got anything left in the tank if arthur smith is really that kind of coach but he's not bringing derrick henry with him man i think it's pretty easy to build an amazing offense when you've got a guy who can get you five yards to carry whenever you need it we'll see if he'll be able to do that with mike davis in the backfield that's the atlanta falcons starting running back right now is mike freaking dav. That's a pretty big concern.

Look, I think that what Arthur Smith did in Tennessee, the more impressive part was Ryan Tannehill, not Derrick Henry. I mean, he turned Ryan Tannehill into a good quarterback, but the playoff should pass. I don't think the Derrick Henry thing, I think people are too focused on Derrick Henry. To me, it's what he did for that quarterback. I think he could get Matt Ryan and a bunch of players

to pass using his big arm with Kyle Pitts. I think that would be fun. I like what they did this offseason. I give him, I think, a B just because he had the pen. It wasn't an A, I don't think.

I mean, I don't... No, they still... I think defensively still have some holes to fill. But... This isn't their year. They're not going for the Super Bowl this year.

They've got some time. No, they're not. They're not i i i totally disagree on the henry thing just for the record like it's pretty easy to throw when you've got nine guys keyed in on the running back and one-on-one with everybody else in the receiving core but uh i don't know if you're picking a team in the south i really like besides the bucks obviously I'm picking the Panthers who, by the way, you can get plus money for over seven and a half wins. And the Falcons are where the Falcons, I think they're at the same spot. They're also seven and a half, but it's actually juiced to the under. So people seem to be high on the Falcons.

I don't, I don't see it. Yeah, I, I'm, I get it. I mean, I, we, we've got our hearts broken. Mike Davis is their starting running back. I'm not, I'm not worried about that. The chiefs won, won the super bowl with a, with a seventh, seventh round undrafted for aging. That's not, that's not as important.

I think we're overvaluing Derek Henry's involvement in that offense. Uh, cause he, he only got good when Ryan Tannehill became the starter, by the way, he wasn't good that year before Mariota became, when Mariota was the starter. So, all right, let's move on to... Too much Falcons. Yeah, I know. What do you want to go next?

What division? Let's save the East. Do you want to go to... Yeah. You want to go to the North? Let's do the North. Let's start with the favorite in the division, the Packers with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

If he's not at quarterback, he won't be the favorite. They re-signed Aaron Jones. They brought King back. They brought Tanyan back. They lost a couple players in their offensive line. They need to kind of fix that, but they drafted Josh Myers at center. I like their first-round pick. They drafted cornerback.

That's what they needed. They didn't need another wide receiver for Aaron Rodgers. They needed help on defense. Remember, the NFC Championship game, their defense got smoked by Tampa Bay. That's been their problem for a couple years now. I understand Rodgers' anger with the Jordan Love pick, but defense was the way to go, I think, in the first round, especially where they were drafted. So this comes down to this, right?

Is Aaron Rodgers staying in Green Bay or not? Matt, what do you think? Yeah, it's funny. We haven't really had this conversation yet. So I think a few things about this. I am positive Aaron Rodgers will be starting for the Packers this year. And to that end, their futures odds are actually have really decreased. So if you're with me on this take, now's the time to pull the trigger on green Bay there. Plus eight 75 to win the NFC at my book. That's behind the Rams and the 49ers who have tons of questions in my eyes.

The thing with Rogers, Jeff is we just saw this happen with Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson ran the same exact playbook two months earlier that Aaron Rogers did. He had a complaint about how they've been building the team. And to me, it's basically like, hey, just in case I leave, they're the problem, not me. I'm not the problem. I'm not the reason that we fell apart last year.

I think Aaron Rodgers is looking at Tom Brady and Drew Brees retiring. And he's sort of like, where do I fit in with these all-time greats I don't want to be discounted because the only successful wide receiver that that Gutekunst and crew has drafted is Devontae Adams like he wants to sort of deflect some of the blame off of him which I get but here's the thing Jeff Aaron what does Aaron Rodgers want Aaron Rodgers wants to host Jeopardy that's what he wants and do that, he needs a very high Q rating, right? He needs to be well-loved by the folks all over the country who are turning on their TVs at seven o'clock at night. You know what people don't like? Guys who quit on their team and forsake millions of dollars to prove some argument, which by the way, what is his argument

exactly? That they didn't draft him enough wide receivers over the years? Who cares? That doesn't justify sitting out a season or throwing a hissy fit. But with that all being said, the way to fix this problem is to throw a second round pick to Atlanta and just get Julio Jones. Just get Julio Jones. Throw a first rounder. Who cares? It's going to be the 30th pick in the draft. Go get Julio Jones. You quiet Rodgers. You get your fans excited. Atlanta's all too eager to let him go. I think that's the way you fix this. Well, that's one way to do it.

I'm with you there that he's being a little bit sensitive and kind of being a little bit of a baby right now about some of this stuff. But that's kind of his personality, right? Like he's just, he wants to voice his concerns about a lot of what's happening right now. Here's how it gets fixed. You mentioned some ways too, but, and the reports already turned down an extension,

but it's money, right? He wants to feel loved. He wants to, no pun intended. He wants to feel the Packers want him to be there for two or three more years, right? They drafted Jordan Love. Same thing Tom Brady went through with Jimmy Groppler, right? He wants to feel loved.

He wants the Packers to make a commitment to him via guaranteed money. Because remember, that's the best commitment you can have as a player. The team pays you guaranteed money. And all this other stuff, again, I think he's being a little sensitive with some of this stuff. Like the Packers' number one need this year was defense. Like, there wasn't a need for a wide receiver. Just an MVP year.

And he's going to play for the Packers this year. That's my take. I don't think he'll go anywhere. I agree. The other thing, that report about, oh, he told free agents he was going to leave. No, he didn't. Aaron Jones stayed. You think Aaron Jones would have stayed for less money?

He said that he took less money because he wanted to stay with the Packers. He didn't stay there for Jordan Love. He stayed there for Aaron Rodgers. It's such BS. He's also telling players that can't leave to come join him. Like, congratulations.

Like, you're going to form a super team in Denver? They're not going to sign all your friends in Denver. They're not going to sign all your friends in Denver. They're not going to sign all your friends in Denver. Like that's, it's... Also, the one thing that bothered me too is a little bit about him. Again, I don't... Everyone I've talked to who played with Aaron

when I said he's fine. So some of these reports come out, like I've asked players, they say he's fine. Is this text message leaked out that he was comparing Brian Gutrian gutekist to jerry kraus the famed bull general manager well guess what aaron jerry kraus has six titles you have one 11 years ago okay they're not breaking up your dynasty buddy they're not doing it jerry kraus breaking up your dynasty buddy they're not doing it jerry kraus okay fine you want to you know say that he ruined the the the bulls fair enough we'll we'll watch the last dance but this is not

your situation buddy you're gonna win like three more super bowls to fill your dynasty like you the chiefs have more of a claim to a dynasty right now and they don't yet they need to win another one or maybe two more than you do you You have no claim to a dynasty right now. Yeah. He is, you know, I think he is like the most purely talented other than Mahomes who we need a little bit more time. Like he is just the most fun quarterback to watch that I've ever watched with Mahomes as the exception.

He's incredible. He's an incredible player. He's amazing. He's like, he's got to get out of his own way here and the number one way to do that is go back to the packers take the best receiver in football you're good running back you're great offensive line which like by the way where's the credit for to the green bay front office for protecting him and extending guys like bakhtiari for so long i i don't know i just don't see him getting getting out of there um i don't either

and to that end by the way the nfc north if he plays this division is such it's so weak i mean they can just cakewalk to a probable buy here uh or at least well not with this new format but they can at least walk walk to the second seed yeah well let's talk about the other competition in his division we'll start with the bears who definitely had an interesting offseason um a lot of turmoil in the organization uh trubisky's gone a lot of talk about will ryan pace and matt nagy come back and they end up with justin fields in the draft uh to von jenkins in the second round who i really like yeah went up playing left tackle for them not quite sure that's his position in the NFL, but they end up getting some value there. They brought back Allen Robinson as well,

Damian Williams. And so, look, man, I think the field starts from day one. I'm high on fields. Matt Nagy has to do a better job than he did with Trubisky of kind of designing offense for him. Now, there's some argument that Trubisky wasn't good enough.

It didn't really matter what Matt Nagy did. It wasn't going to work. But there was some talk that he didn't tailor the offense well enough to what Trubisky wasn't good enough it didn't really matter what Matt Nagy did it wasn't going to work but there was some talk that he didn't tailor the offense well enough to what Trubisky's strengths are so hopefully he does that with Fields but when when the Bears go to Los Angeles in week one Fields will be the quarterback I love what they did this offseason I'm not high on them quite so much this year because I think it's really hard to win with a rookie quarterback just in general but I think they're they're going to play especially defensively with the renewed spirit because they trust who's a quarterback right defense is an emotional position matt and if you don't trust your offense will help you out at all you might

play well for three quarters you might play well for half a season and then just downhill because you don't feel that love from the offense you don't feel the offense can help you you know offensively our job just to score right we score score score score all the time we have no problem just continuing trying to do that now it's harder when your defense sucks and you have to score 35 points to win but that's our job is to score points defense a little more emotional so i think defense will play better this year but again i want to see what naggy does with fields i think they'll start week one uh i love what they did with with the draft and they're going for it uh how do you feel the bears did this offseason i love what they did with with the draft and they're going for it uh how do you

feel the bears did this offseason i think that they did a really nice job with the fields thing uh they're all in on him right like and we've seen this happen before and we've seen it work where our quarterbacks come in and you know exceeded expectations and the rest of the team's infrastructure is sort of there i think the, the Bears are one of these teams that's got like the highest floor to ceiling discrepancy. I think like if Fields comes in and is as good as some people thought he could be coming into the draft, they could be a damn good team.

Like their defense could get energized. You know, David Montgomery really came on at the end of last year. Al Robinson is a very good wide receiver one who I think has been overlooked. But then you kind of look at their team, right? And their window weirdly is now. Akeem Hicks is turning 32 this year. Khalil Mack just turned 30.

Trevathan's 31. In the secondary, they're getting a little bit older too. Like they have a real veteran team and they kind of need fields to come in and just be good. Now this, you know, we were, we've seen this with other teams, like the Rams, where they're just sort of like, well, the quarterback was the problem. So, you know, what, what, what can we do now? You've got your quarterback. Like this is kind of the year where we have to see if, if this roster is ever going to be anything or not. I think they're going to be good.

I think Fields is going to be good. I think he's in a position to succeed. But I'm not sure about it. And the fact that they could end up doing pretty well in this division because of the other two teams. But they're kind of a mystery. It's hard to handicap them. It all comes down to Fields. I'm with you.

That's why I think, again, we're not playing the can I beat Tampa game because they're not going to beat Tampa. It's all about how Fields progresses into year two. Also, if he kind of doesn't progress this year, now he's out and someone else is coming in to coach him. So there's a lot of pressure on this. I think there is pressure to play him sooner or later

for this exact reason, right? You you drafted him you better let him go all right let's get to the vikings who last year they were a mess defensively and i don't expect them to be as bad this season with mike zimmer right i just don't expect that yeah now they added patrick peterson who is a little slower now i don't know if he's as good as he's been. But again, a veteran addition to a defensive-minded coach. I like it. You know, Xavier Woods and McKinney Alexander, too, on defense. Just some kind of low-key defensive ones.

Now, I thought their draft was good in a couple areas. One is, their offensive line had to get better, right? Had to get better. They drafted Christian Deresoff from Virginia Tech and Wyatt Davis from Ohio State. Great options. Don't like the Kelly Munn draft pick in the third round. I feel like you wasted a draft pick

because Cousins is there and he's your guy. Like, why would you draft a third-round quarterback? Makes no sense unless you just need a veteran backup, I guess. But again, you're kind of a go-for-it-now mode, right? And to draft a quarterback in the third round feels extremely silly when you need to go get more players to help your team get to where you want to go i'm just like but i'm just out on cousins like they're not being the bucks they might win 10 11 games matt but they're not

a legitimate contender to win to win the the nfc no they're another team where i just don't understand what they think they are obviously they needed help on the offensive line the patrick peterson thing i guess zimmer is looking at terrence newman from a few years ago and all these like older corners that he's been able to sort of turn around into something i think he could um the kellen mon pick is the one everyone's sort of fascinated by count me among them like her cousins that doesn't i mean he's just never really delivered for them he's been i think exactly what everyone expected which is like better than average probably but hasn't delivered in the promised land the thing the thing i'm really concerned about with them is dalvin cook last year was absolutely heroic and for them to be competitive they need that kind of same season

out of him jefferson and theelin were incredible last season uh theelin was hurt for some of the year he kind of has had some injury struggles in the past i could see their offense regressing and if their defense doesn't sort of return to the mike zimmer defenses that we're used to this could be a disastrous season for them um just you know i i don't really know what they're headed. Yeah, I just have... People are... It depends. The Cousins, I know,

because the Cousins conversation, there are some people that think Cousins is much better, much worse, kind of in the middle. I think he's worse than people think he is just because I don't ever see him winning the NFC, which is kind of the point of the whole exercise, right? I just, I don't know. I think he's just okay.

Everything else has to happen for him to be really, really good. And I just don't think everything's gonna happen for them this year. Again, they're well coached. They might win nine or 10 games, but the Packers with Rodgers, there's a reason why they keep winning every year.

The division, the better football team all right let's get to the lines very quickly um i love their draft pineso levi onzerike mcneil just got big and physical on the lines but they're just not very talented they're not gonna win a lot this year um dan campbell bite their kneecaps off um i'm just curious to see what what to do with golf this year right i think that the golf stafford trade there's a very good chance we look back at this trade and go wow lions good trade like if stafford doesn't if stafford isn't a huge jump over golf in la then we're gonna look at this trade be like huh maybe the Lions were onto something here. They also have an out after next year. So it's not like they entered into a lifelong commitment to Jared Goff. Yeah. I think the Panay Sewell draft pick was great. You know, I'm glad

they didn't franchise and extend Kenny Galladay. Like let the Giants have Kenny Galladay. Who cares? Like that's not a Superbowl winning piece for them one day uh I also you know the center I forget the guy's name uh the the center for the Lions who just got that huge contract they're they're building up front right so I think that that's a that's a smart way to do it I'm curious to see how Goff does I don't know I think they're headed in the right direction give them some time uh I think they'll be fine in a few years. Yeah. I'm just curious what they do next year at quarterback. I mean, there's a lot of talk about them.

You know, they just kind of Peter out this year just being really bad and grabbing yourself at quarterback in next year's class. So we'll leave it. I think, look again, I did a good job kind of adding physical pieces to the roster, but there's not much to talk about there. Boom. And there. Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide.

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Let's get to the West because that's a very fun division. So the West is the one place where I think we have a challenger for the bucks and that is the 49ers um and i'll tell you why the 49ers are a challenge they're a good roster right we know that they i was pretty impressed with the addition of trent williams uh not the addition but but the re-signing um they're so beat up last year matt that that's going to come back to the other way right like they're going to not be beat up and maybe, Matt, that that's going to come back to the other way, right? Like they're going to not be beat up and maybe have some good injury luck this season.

But more than anything, when Shanahan has held a healthy quarterback, that is Jimmy Garoppolo, he went to Super Bowl, the one season he had. So if Jimmy Garoppolo starts the season and gets injured, guess what? They have a more talented player to come in and play for him. Or if Trey Lance starts the season,

he's more talented than Jimmy Garoppolo. And he plays in an offense that makes everyone good, right? It makes Cousins good. It makes Goff good. It makes Baker Mayfield. This offense is excellent for quarterbacks. So no matter what happens in that position, whether it's Jimmy G or Trey Lance, Matt, I think they win a lot of football games. I think Lance

plays at some point this year, maybe week five, six, seven, eight, somewhere around there, and the offense just takes off. I like Lance to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year. I think there's some good value there. Because I think if he comes in, even if he plays 13 of 17 games, he's going to play well. To me, it's the Niners.

They're the one challenger, in my opinion, to the Bucs. Well, everyone's sort of split on this team uh some people think that they're kind of like oh they're a sleeper maybe they'll be like an under the radar team they actually uh at my book they have the third best odds to win the nfc um of any team which i think is pretty interesting i mean yeah they were really banged up last year but they were really banged up the year before too and i think that at some point that becomes like that's not a uh that's not an anomaly the last year they had 17 starters go on ir the year before they had 15 starters go on ir um trent williams amazing player love him watched him a lot in washington always hurt

uh george kittle has had plenty injury problems debo samuels had plenty injury problems right but you have to think but typically in you that that unless you they're just old and beat up um you know that's in this year you're not going to have that you know injury luck kind of every year you up down up down up down you know but not but not the last two years it's been consistent so you the other thing about the 49ers that i think people are kind of overlooking is on their defense two things have happened that i think are significant i let's assume nick bosa comes back to 100 he's young and people recover from acls all the time they have not looked exactly the same since taafaris Buckner left. I think that that was sort of an underrated loss for them. He's been great in Indy.

And also like, you know, Robert Sala for two years got so much credit for that defense and now he's gone. So we'll see if that defense is going to be as sharp as everyone says it is. I don't exactly know what the plan is with Lance. The fact that they kept Garoppolo. And by the way, I want to take credit for predicting that the Niners would would pick Lance on our mock drafts check out your boy but I I'm not sure exactly what the plan is there if they start Garoppolo you know they're they're gonna they're gonna be good they're they're a solid team I just don't buy

the injury regression thing because they have the pattern and I have some questions about their defense before I say yes they certainly can if things go right they can unseat the bucks potentially but i'm not sure i'm not as high on them as everyone else's i'll just say this in 2014 and 15 with the giants we had a ton of injuries cough once last two years and then 2016 everyone was healthy they went to the playoffs with with mackadu like i think if they stay healthy they're in which is a big you, which is a big, you know, which is a big question mark. So, I'm with you there.

Let's move on to, let's do Seahawks. I think Seahawks would be the second best team in this division. Wow. Yeah. Dude, they just win a lot of regular season games. Like, they just do. They're going to win. They're going to be over nine and a half games as usual, and they're going to just run the ball 50 times in the playoffs and lose.

But Russell Wilson asked for some help. They addressed the offensive line, right? They traded for Gabe Jackson. They drafted Stone Forsythe, 6th rounder. I think this is going to be a really good addition for them. They drafted a wide receiver, Dwayne Eskridge, who i've talked to people that really like this draft pick for them then they only had three draft picks if you remember because they traded for you know for jamal items um i i don't know matt i i i just am higher on them because i think that russell wilson

and seattle figured out what they want to be and i hope it's not running the football but they talked very much about wanting to pass the ball more, using Russell Wilson more, and they drafted to help him. They drafted wide receiver, offensive lineman, traded for offensive lineman. It feels like, at least I hope so, that they know what they're doing offensively finally. Man, I disagree with this assessment here. I mean, just for the main reason,

I don't feel like they really remade their team. Like, great, you know, they upgraded at guard. You know, they signed Gerald Everett to kind of a bigger deal than I think he warranted. You mentioned that the fact that they only drafted three players. It just feels like they kind of have, they have an older roster that last year at the end of the season, they came out they came out smoking hot russell wilson was doing the mvp tour and they just fell apart and i don't really see a massive upgrade here in a division that's gonna have the 49ers certainly gonna be better the rams who i can't believe you're saying they're the third best team in the division they actually

have the second highest uh nfc championship odds uh at the book i'm looking at um i i just don't think that they've remade their team enough to get competitive and frankly i russell wilson his unhappiness sure it won't maybe affect him this year but i think he's sort of like getting us prepared for his exit eventually and i think he sees the writing on the wall of like hey this team doesn't have a ton of talent beyond you know him and dk metcalf and jamal adams like i just don't see it with this team i i'm i'm i don't know i'm not excited about him i mean but no one's ever excited for them and they just win a bunch of regular season games like that's the difference here as we're talking about i guess you know i don't think they're contenders for to win the nfc matt but i think that they're the second best team in this

division i'll tell you why i'm not as high on the rams um they're gonna have huge defensive regression this season right like they're gonna it's gonna be big um matt stafford is an improvement over golf but you know how good is matt stafford still matt i don't know but it's it seems like sean mcveigh has basically said the diff the difference between us being a super ball team and us being whatever they were which by the way was enough to beat seattle with the you know jared golf with a broken thumb in the playoffs like whatever they think the difference is the next level they have now said is stafford i like whatever they think the difference is to the next level, they have now said is Stafford. I think that's the difference between golf and Stafford. I think that's a pretty bold strategy. We'll see. We'll see if it pays off for them, Cotton. But I do

think, I don't know. I think the Rams, the Rams every year, it's the same sort of formula, right? They're really top heavy. They rely on their stars to get them across the finish line. But I don't know, like Aaron Donald's probably probably the best maybe the best player in the nfl like that seems like a pretty good formula their rushing attack really came on last year um you know if they get above average quarterback play out of stafford like why couldn't they be the second best team in the nfc i just think that best team in the NFC. I just think that defensively,

I know the defense sometimes is not the way we should look at how the teams are going to be good or not, but I think we're going to see massive they lost two cornerbacks, both actually signed with the Browns.

Something about the Rams. I was off on them last year. I was wrong about it. I don't know, man. Something about them I just can't buy. I can't put my finger on it. I just am never high on the Rams. I don't know why.

You're not alone. I just feel like everyone is sort of like penciling in the 49ers to positively regress and penciling in the Rams to negatively regress. When you look at the Rams, they're very consistent. They did the playoffs year last year yeah which with terrible quarterback play like I think the Rams could really I mean if if Stafford is a top 10 quarterback this year they could be unbelievable if their defense is 15th in DVOA this year how good are they good their offense is awesome like

maybe if Stafford can play still if he doesn't get hurt if he can still sling the rock like i just think there's some question about whether or not stafford can be the guy that that people think he is well i mean i just think i i agree but i think to say all that about the rams and not the 49ers so we don't even know who their quarterback's going to be in week three is is a little unfair to the rams like the rams have been really solid they have as just as good of a coach as any team in the nfl i think that they're going to be really good um well the team that i have that i just i'm off of because their coach is not very good as kingsbury look i i just the cardinals to me i gotta see it with this offense man like this offense is not, it's just not set for the NFL.

It has to update the offense. They're too stagnant. They're too spread out. They're just not good enough on offense. And, man, I don't trust Kingsbury's going to change. He's run the same offense his entire life, wherever he's been. And I don't think they're good enough to change. I just, I think they did a're good enough to change. I just,

I think they did a good job of adding pieces to the team, right? They added Watt and Rodney Hudson is great, A.J. Green, if he can still play, and Malcolm Butler, they drafted Zayvon Collins and Rondell Moore. I'm all for the moves they made personnel-wise. I don't trust their coach.

Terrible linking situations, stagnant offense, Kyler Murray did not improve last year. And again, I don't trust their coach terrible liking situations stagnant offense column kyler murray did not improve last year um and again i don't you know i don't know if that's all kingsbury's fault but i kind of think it was um so i'm out of the cardinals man i'm out i am too i'm glad you're with me uh what is what does this team think it is like you bring in jj watt and aj green these are like these are like bucks signings these are like we're close we just need some ring chasers to come in here and make some plays for us in the playoffs like did i like what do they think they are i like the rodney hudson acquisition but

like what are they doing letting kenny and drake go like what are they doing i mean i i just don't understand what they are zayvon collins they have 14 guys like that on their team. They have like 10 tweener guys every single year, and they drafted another one. The Rondell Moore thing is fun, but like, do they have a player on their offense who's over five foot six? Like, what are we doing here?

I'm with you. I don't exactly know what this team is doing. I think that they have a very good chance of doing the like, uh-oh, we're bottoming out this year. Kingsbury's out kime is out uh in a really tough division i i just don't see it with them i'm with you i mean you're in the same but all right let's get to the nfc east and mystery of all and this division is not going to be as bad as last season i think i'm actually penciling the afc south to be the NFC East this year, by the way, if we're keeping score here. I like that.

Let's get to this division. Now, Matt, there has not been a repeat winner in this division since 2004. We'll start with your Washington football team because they won last year and we'll kind of go around this division. Fitz Magic is there now as the quarterback.

Defensively, he might be the best defense in the NFL best defensive line of football offensively they added Curtis Samuel um that is Sam Kosamy as well in the draft to play offensive line um not bad team Matt what do you think not a bad team at all love that they didn't go all in on quarterback this year. Look, you look at this division and you can talk yourself into any of these teams winning it. Just, you know, whichever one you pick, if the thesis is Washington's going to win, it's because the best unit in this division is their defense, which should just get better.

They picked up a middle linebacker in the draft, which was their biggest need on that side of the ball. they have a great coach Fitzpatrick is a huge I mean they had terrible quarterback play last year and still made the playoffs and by the way like did legitimately push the bucks in the in the postseason so do so do we get do we get good fits though that's the question right do we get good fits or bad fits that's right i don't think they're going to be an awesome team by any means but they could do enough to win this division um i think they're going to be fun and they're positioned well in the long term i don't think it's a bad bet for uh for who wins this division at all but i like what they did this offseason though i think it was i didn't do a good job to your point about not chasing quarterback you know where they were

trading up um you know and fits is good enough to get you you know you you have a chance with Fitz at least this year um all right the team that's the favorite to win the division is Dallas Cowboys every year the favorite yep every year the favorite so the biggest addition obviously is Dak Prescott coming back right we understand that. They drafted heavy on defense. First six picks on defense. They had to fix their defense. Dan Quinn is in charge there. Dude, count me a skeptical on the Cowboys, buddy.

I think Dak coming back is great for them, right? But their offensive line, are they going to stay healthy? Teron Smith at left tackle, is he going to stay healthy? They have weapons. Agreed. But defensively is where my big problem for them is dan quin's their defensive coordinator he was good in seattle went to the falcons and have you seen their defense the last four years couldn't develop a soul in that defense

now they're relying on him to develop all these draft picks to somehow fix the defense. I don't know, man. I don't think they're going to do it. Now, they have the most talented offense in the division, but if their offensive line can't stay healthy, it doesn't matter if they're talented. So if everything goes right for them, they're going to win 12 games. But count me as someone who's not betting on their win total.

This team, to me, feels like the potential to be Atlanta a year or two ago, eight players take up 56% of their cap space this year, Jeff. They're a team that's relying on guys like Connor McGovern and Tristan Hill and Trayvon digs to be awesome. And yeah, I mean, Mike Nolan should pretend, or sorry, Dan Quinn should be an upgrade potentially uh over mike nolan from last year but like they need a lot of things to go right here granted their offense was putting up like what like 50 points a game last year with dac but it's because there was a touchdown on the other end every single play um they need tyron smith

and zach martin to be healthy we're not sure that that's ever going to be the case again. They're a victim of their own success. They drafted so well that they sort of drank their Kool-Aid and extended everybody until 2050. We'll see. Of the four teams in the division, they're the one I kind of trust the least. I also, you know, they might have the third best coach in the division, with Sirianni being a massive incomplete. I think they have a real disadvantage there. We'll get to the Eagles in just a second.

Don't you worry. The one who's taking the most money, I think, as far as value, in the entire NFL to win a division is the Giants, about plus 450. Look, I think we're getting a little bit ahead of ourselves, but I like what they did to this offense. They brought in Kenny Galladay. They brought in Kyle Rudolph. They re-signed Williams, which I think getting a little bit ahead of ourselves, but I like what they did this offseason. They brought in Kenny Galladay. They brought in Kyle Rudolph. They re-signed Williams, which I think was a little bit much.

They brought in Dory Jackson. They brought in John Ross. They drafted Kedaris Toney. Ulahari, the good pass rusher out of Georgia. Hopefully his knee is fine. But it comes down to Danny Dimes, man, to Danny turn the ball over. Has he turned the ball over or not this year? That's what it comes down to Danny Dimes, man, to Danny turn the ball over. Has he turned the ball over? Not this year. Like that's what it comes down to, right?

If he is much improved, good football team. If he's Danny turn the ball over, not a good football team, right? Like it's that simple. And look at last year, dude. They didn't beat anyone that was good except Seattle. Like people look at, oh, they won six games. Like they almost won the division. Well, they didn't.

And they beat like Washington twice, the Bengals, the Seahawks, and what Dallas wants. Like it just, so I think they're further away than people want them to be. But if Danny Dimes plays well, Daniel Jones plays well, they have a chance to be the division winner, I think. This team is such a mystery to me because i don't think we texted about anything more frequently last year than how overrated the giants were and how delusional their fans were but now here i am looking at this and going like

why couldn't they win this division they absolutely could because they do have a bunch of talent on the roster the problem is it's like who like, like, what is this team? Like, I just don't understand like what they think they are. They're, I think, selling themselves as a team that could really go deep in the playoffs. They're signing Kenny Galladay to huge money. Leonard Williams, they backed him up with this huge contract. He had one really good year. We'll see if he can, if he can continue that, you know, signing Kyle Rudolph to be your tight end too. It's like, what do you think you are? Like, you must think that you're really close. Last year you said it, like they beat Dwayne Haskins and Kyle Allen and they're like, well,

we're better than Washington. It's like, okay, great. I don't know. I think they're probably the best bet in this division to win it because, excuse me, as you said, like they're, you know, you can get them for plus 515 and you can get Washington or Dallas for under plus 200 so I like that as the potential play but they are just a gigantic question mark and it all comes down to the quarterback like you said hopefully Saquon being back will make him look a little bit better but who knows with this team, man? I am with you. And I just think, you know, a lot of the media that covers the NFL

all started in Northeast. And they're just, they love pumping the Giants up, right? Like, you know this. It's like the Knicks. Yeah, they love pumping them up. So I am with you. Like, it's really Danny Debs now to the Eagles who, boy. I said this the other day. did a gambling show and i said

that nick sirani is the puppet of the front office and people in the show were like oh and i was like what that's a strong take that is the take right that's strong enough yeah that's the take they're a dumpster fire i am look i understand that nick sirani was trying to be cute with the rock paper scissors thing but does any reads does any read ever say that have you heard bill belichick say yeah we put rock paper scissors right we just we did have you heard chris ballard say that have you heard anyone no no because that's stupid and even if you do that you're not telling me when you did it it's not cute man like this is the nfl that's not a way to evaluate whether players are competitive or not watch their film turn their film on and see if they're competitive or not i just don't

like what i hear from philly that article that shell capita who is fantastic i think shell wrote it right um at the athletic um uh that was him right they wrote the long eagles article this offseason about yeah um like it was a great article they're a tire fire man they can't figure out who's running the team. Is the owner in charge? Is the GM in charge? They're both in charge. They're having these analytic meetings every week,

which is fine if you want to do that. But second guessing the coach all the time and the home under the bus, I don't think it's going to change now. That's not how good teams are run. Honestly, it's kind of shocking when the Super Bowl, when you read how much dysfunction they have behind the scenes.

So I'm out on them. I think Hurts is going to be okay. I don't think he's elite. But I'm out on them, buddy. Here's, I think, what's going to happen with them. They're going to come out and play a few games close, maybe win a game early in the season. Everyone's going to be like be like oh the eagles like sirianni he's the next you know he's the next sean mcveigh like there's gonna that's gonna happen

just because like this is what they do like they do have a lot of talent on the team still and i think the davante smith pick will look good in a few years i think he's really awesome um but this team is a mess their roster is either like super young and underachieving or super old and like like zach or it's like oh maybe this will be the year he'll like get his form back i this team looks like a big old mess um and it's another reason why i think the colts are gonna be awesome because i think carson wentz is gonna shine in a system that's not so terrible um that that'll be an interesting one me and you agree on a lot of things and today we just have not agreed on a lot of things like i brought that up on purpose your running back takes have

been atrocious uh you've said things that have been like i'm like i'm like no the derrick henry thing was just like the only reason my take of derrick henry is good really terrible no no no no no your take was arthur smith was good because of Derrick Henry, which is just not true. I stand by it. And then you were upset the Falcons had in the same take Mike Davis. You mentioned that the Giants would be good because Barkley's back. Like, get out of here. This Colts thing.

Okay. Carson Wentz was the worst quarterback statistically in the NFL last year, right? Analytically, right? Advanced stats, which is, I think, the best way to use it. Okay. Last. So, Matt, Phil Brewers was was 11th by the way okay so in the best case scenario carson wentz becomes average next year he's not gonna become elite in one season like it like okay so are you just

setting me up right now you're laughing i don't like this yeah i love it it's great this is just what i wanted so if carson wentz if you're still listening now, bravo for continuing to listen. But Carson Wentz, even if he's average, they're not going to win the AFC. Their division is going to be the NFC Eastern. They're going to be a nine or eight win division winner. Like Tennessee, I think, regresses a bunch. Well, Arthur Smith there. Well, at least that Derrick Henry maybe can carry the ball 500 times this year the tech is good

just making sure he is good the the jaguars if team tipo is on that roster just a hard fade just if he makes the roster dude oh god i promise i promise you the colts win that division behind even adequate carson Wentz play. And that puts them at like 11 or 12 wins. And that'll just make the Eagles season worse. That's my only take. Colts fans think that like Carson Wentz is going to be what he was in 2017.

That's the outlier for his career, by the way, so far, everyone. That's Eller. It's been a long podcast. I'm going to throw the teams. All right, everyone. Hope you enjoyed this. We will keep it to under two and a half hours for you guys

This will be about I don't know with adding 52 minutes or so Please rate review subscribe. We have a lot more listeners lately. I really appreciate it I hope you guys enjoy what we're doing and we'll be back next week. Take care everybody