Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - NFL Best Bets Week 5

Episode Date: October 9, 2026

Geoff Schwartz and Matt Ford are back giving their favorite sides for the week!

It is Friday, October 9th. Jeff Schwartz, Matt for the Schwartz Football Show. It's our Friday preview for the National Football League. We go through all the games and we pick out five sides we like to do. Almost quit last week, Matt, but then we went four and one. So we had a good week. We were up to 7 and 13 now. Can I talk about record things real quick on the internet before we get going here?

So two things I love is I'm very transparent with our record on this show and want to do my college stuff. and people try to track me sometimes and they get the record wrong and I'm like, why would you just get it wrong? Like, why would you get my bad record wrong? Okay, it's not hard to get right. And the other thing I like to, Matt, I'm sure you follow these internet personalities

that give out wagers. And when they're right, they're geniuses. Like I made the right, when they lose, it's always something else. Like, I made the right read, but so-and-so didn't happen or this, this is the, I was right, but the players didn't do what I thought they would do.

It's like, no, you were wrong. Just own it, man. Just be, just own being wrong. I don't understand why as people that give out wages. And again, I, I, you're going to be good. You're going to be bad. It's hard to be good in the NFL. Like, I do much better in props than I do in these.

This is hard to do. This is the point of what we're doing here, Matt. But I don't understand people that get on the internet and just either either lie about the record of person they're tracking, lie about their own record, which is even crazier. And they just make excuses for a loss. Like sometimes you just take an L, buddy. That's it. Sometimes you take an L. And the reason that this is hard is no one can truly know the future.

And stuff happens. Like, you know, was one of the ones that I liked last week was commanders and Colts. I like the commanders. They were rolling. And Marcus Mariotta went out on the second drive. And it's like, okay. Like, that's what happens. Like, I'm not stupid.

It wasn't a bad bad. It wasn't a good bad because it didn't win. It just like, that's what happens. Like, that's what happens. If the quarterback gets hurt, if like the field goal kicker misses a few times, like stuff happens. It's like, it's fine. You're supposed to get some of these wrong. Correct.

You're going to get some of these wrong. And last night, I got that game wrong because I thought Dallas was going to beat Tampa Bay. I did not bet on Dallas. I'm not laying eight and a half or nine on Thursdays and on football. But they looked bad, buddy, and looked really bad. And Tampa Bay is not a good football team right now. And the Cowboys defense is a huge problem. But this story from this game, though, Matt, is Todd Bulls, man.

I was stupefied with his coaching last night at the end of that game. So they're up 14 points with about eight minutes left, okay? It's fourth and one at the one. Kick a field goal, game is over. Three score game, eight minutes left in the NFL. No one's coming back. And this is a coach who's conservative, Matt. His entire career he's been on the conservative side.

We're going to play defense. We're going to punt the ball. We're going to kick field goals. We're not going to be aggressive on fourth down. And the one moment to be a conservative coach and kick the field goal to go up 17 points. he goes for it and gets predictably stuffed

predictably stuffed Dallas goes right down 98 yards for a touchdown Yep And if Jake Ferguson didn't have bricks for hands The Cowboys would have tied this game And Todd Bowles would have been fired this morning Because there's no defending that decision whatsoever

It makes no sense Even the analytics Matt And I fight this in my own head all the time And I fight on the internet sometimes too like analytics always say go for it, right? Because getting the first down helps you win more than not getting the first down. No surprise. Like everything, it's so funny, the analytics say go for it.

No shit they do. Like what, of course they do because getting a first down and getting a touchdown eventually is better for your team to win. They always say go for it. They always say go for it. This one said not. This one kicked the field goal to the model that always says go for it. Look, watch any game.

Watch any game this weekend. The analytics comes up fourth. in seven, our next model says go. Every single time, it doesn't matter. You can have the eight-string quarterback. You can have Ethan Kalmanakis in the game for the commanders. Go for it. It doesn't care.

The model just says, go for it. In this case, it said not. It said, kick a field goal. And he maddie went for it. Just in all-time stupefying dumb decision, I don't know why he did it. And it didn't matter. That's the crazy part. I think I used to have a name.

I mean, this is now the second time I brought up the commanders, like of Ron Rivera face on the sideline where it was just like everything was going to hell and Rivera was sitting there like yes like me watching me watching digger where it's just like what's happening here like I'm a little unclear and then now it's it's Todd Bulls face now like the whole game like he doesn't speak to anyone like what's he doing out there like he's like McVey the whole game is doing this he's like oh I'm talking under my thing he can't see me these are last week's fixed, by the way. And like, like, who was Todd Bulls talking to? He's like, he's going out there and he's meditating. Like, what is he doing? And then, and then he like, and then he took a knee at the end of the

game. I suppose he got hit in the head with like a help someone hit him in the head with a helmet in celebration. It looked like he was like fainted. Oh, I didn't see that. Yeah. He, like, he looked like he fainted. Like he took a knee after the game was over. And I'm glad he's okay. But I was like, is he okay? Like, he knew, he knows this game probably saves his job. Like it was, dude. Super Bowl champion safety. He's not, he's not a win. I couldn't. I couldn't. I couldn't believe, I just couldn't believe that decision last night. But the Cowboys, I saw a tweet this morning that like summed up the Cowboys. I, so yesterday on Bear Betts, I gave out Cowboys to win a division.

It was even money with Eagles issues and whatnot. I figured that it was a good wager. I saw this tweet about the Cowboys. I lied, man. It's at stake friend. I lied, man. I'm not going to bet. I'm not done bitching.

Dallas Cowboys are such losers. Division up for grabs. Seacon Hunt. Lane Johnson retired. hurts. I won't repeat what he said. Jackson Dart dead. I won't repeat what he said about Cam Scataboo as well, but still, commanders, one more enjoyed from Ethan Kalamanakis for the rest of the season. All these you do is beat Jalen F and Daniels at home and you can't do it. What a loser organization. Correct. Yeah, that's that's the right take. It is the right take. I think you could pretty much take any team in the NFC East right now and make a case for it. It's, I think probably the worst division in football. honestly. And there's a chance that a couple of the teams could turn it around.

You could make the case for all of them, except ironically, I think the Giants without a quarterback this season. But it's just a really bad division. And this Dallas team, like, it just doesn't matter who's out there. It's the same team every year. Like, this is just such a classic Cowboys loss. And I feel like Schontenheimer almost like exaggerates the things about the Cowboys that everyone likes to make fun of. Like they're inconsistent. He's clearly just like not a high level coach, but he's got something. It's sort of like Dak Prescott. It's like Dak Prescott is a very good quarterback, but there's

just like one little thing, whatever it is that keeps them from that tippy top level and that's just the Cowboys every year. And dude, like their defense, they have so many guys. Like, I thought we were putting Caleb Downs in the Hall fame after a preseason scrimmage rep against whoever it was, C.D. Lamb.

Like, there's so many guys that's like Quinn Williams and the defensive line, there's just tons of Ron Blan with that huge contract. And they suck. Like, what are they doing? Did you see, like, the, the tackling the Bucky Irving run? It was insane. It was so disgusting.

It was so bad. It was so bad. You know, you talk about DAC and quarterbacks, and I saw this this week. And there's a lot of Josh Allen discourse back and forth about how good he is. But someone was like, I think, you know, if I was taking one quarterback to win a game, I picked Josh Allen. It's like, what? What? No, you pick Patrick Mahomes.

I don't, I don't understand. Like, I don't know, I don't, like, some of the quarterback discourse and our buddy Nick, right, I think is, been the best on Josh Allen. You might disagree with him, but I think he's right on track with this. Like, there are quarterbacks that are, Josh Allen's a Hall of Famer. Lamar's a Hall of Famer. Dach's probably a Hall of Famer

one day. Like he's going to have so many stats, he's going to be so good over the years. He's going to 33. He's got seven more years of this, right, Matt? I'm not sure he's a Hall of Famer, but you know what I mean. Like, a very good football player. But in the end, something about their play doesn't translate to wins. Now, for Dak, it's his defense really feels like.

It's letting him down. And Jake Ferguson, that ball hit him in the freaking head because he missed it last night. Otherwise, they'd probably win that game or at least Tiger in overtime. And CEDY got hurt. Like, but there's still like something that just like is not. And again, it's a team game and defense really matters, of course. And the defense has really let him down a lot. And so, but it's like there's something about it, right?

Where Mahomes just sort of like, maybe it's a coaching staff as well, the personnel there, but they peak at the right time. And, you know, Philly for a couple years, like peaked at the right time, right? Like, it's important to do that. And some of these teams just don't do that. And maybe it's a quarter of the, maybe it's everything around the quarterback, but certain guys just sort of elevate

everyone around them. It's been on the Eagles. Before we get to the games, Lane Johnson retired this week. I don't talk about Layton for a quick second here. So he retired because of his mental health. Essentially, that's the best way to put it, right? Matt.

And he retired because, look, when you can't give to the game mentally what it needs, you need to step away. It's game as hard enough as it is. and then when you add in that stress of it, it's just untenable to play anymore, right? And Lane talked about this off-season retirement. When you start talking about retirement, it's time, right?

Like, I tell this people, the older players all the time. You start talking about retirement, like, it's time to go. And that his parents are sick. And so he decided to walk away. And I admire guys that walk away on their own mat. A lot of us don't. A lot of us get retired because no one wants us. We get hurt.

We get beat up. and Lane decided to walk away. And I thought obviously Stephen A. Smith apologized for that attack on Lane, which I thought was just, I was. I was shocked that he went in that direction. I just, I mean, look, if you think he quit, I mean, I'd buy the argument that he decided to up and leave after four games.

I mean, I get what that means to you. I understand if you're a fan wants to make that argument. I don't know what the rebuttal is to that other than his mental health is more important than playing football right now. And then we have to appreciate that that a player, A, Lane's done a good job talking about. this. B, mental health is, I'm glad being bought to forth from NFL players.

We have players that unfortunately take their own lives, right? Matt, like, it's important to take care of your mental health and laying aside it's time to step away. And I commend him for that decision. And I wish him the best in retirement. And I don't get to people who are like Russia to say he quit. I mean, I don't know. It just, it was time for him to retire, Matt.

And when it's time to retire, you're done. I don't, I can't make that any clearer for people. a lot of us don't get that opportunity. Just say, oh, we're done. If he was, look, if the Eagles were 4-0 and the same stuff was happening, Lane would step away too. He stepped away in training camp. It's nothing to do with the record.

Now, I think part of it, just his overall mental health when it comes to playing football, Jeff Stoutland not being there, his offensive line coach, who's had an entire career, probably plays a role a little bit in his fun of being at work every day and someone he can really confide and trust in through this process. And lastly, I credit Lane with the biggest glow-up for an offensive line position in my lifetime.

I've talked about this maybe various stages, but I want to sort of expand on it, Matt. So Lane being so good at right tackle at the same time as sort of PFF started, and the same time as all 22 was available to the public. all those combined together. And my brother deserved some of this credit because he was in first team all pro the same time Lane was playing, like him and Lane,

but a lot of it was Lane, to be fair. Like, they made the right tackle position feel so much more important. And it's also the same time, by the way, that pass rusher started to move from the left tackle to the right tackle. And that's because of shotgun. So when you're in shotgun,

the quickest way to the quarterback is actually through the right tackle because the ball, the arm is right tackle. there with the ball. It's easier to knock the ball down from that side. And the quarterback can see both sides now. It used to be you would be able to the left tackle because that's a blind side. Quarterback can't see you. Well, and Gunning can see both. And what's actually the quickest way to get to the quarterback through the right tackle, right in his face? And so they moved over to the right

tackle. So all these things sort of converged at once. And Lane Johnson made the right tackle position feel so much more important to the general public. And he made Pro Bowls, which other guys have done. Willie Anderson did. Jackie Slater did. But I think, I think like we, we appreciate the right tackle play more because of Lane Johnson's playing the National Football League.

How do you like that take, Matt? I actually muted myself because you were cooking and I was taking Sam that I think that's the best thing you've ever done on a show with me. I mean, so much there. There's sort of no better convergence of topics for you than, like mental health off the field stuff and offensive lines like X's

and O's. Look, I think you're 100% right on all of it, including the idea that he quit on it. It's like he didn't he didn't retire because the Eagles didn't cover against the Rams. Do you know what I mean? Like anybody making that argument is just completely, it's just ridiculous. And I didn't consider the silent thing. I mean, I just think that he, you're right. Like, Lane became like this sort of extraordinary example of what one player can do on the offensive line. And I think the whole perception of offensive line play has

sort of changed and involved as a result. That stat that goes around every time he misses a game where the Eagles are 18 and 30 without him and they've won two thirds of the time with him in almost 200 games. Like there's a reason. So I'm really curious to see how the Eagles responds. Like they're like really people are kicking them while they're down. And this is a really tough break for them obviously. But I wish him the best, dude.

Like you're right. Like this is not a decision he took lately because they, you know, defense can close against Stafford. Like, this is something else. Yeah, and I do wish her the best. And look, Cam Jergens is out now. They traded camp. It just feels like a tough.

What did you think of that? Well, so, um, interesting. So I, I, I think the, the, he's out of position playing guard. He needs to play center and Tampa and, and the, and the ravers will put him in center. I think the Eagles got to a point where they said that they're not going to pay Jurgens because he's always hurt. And so let's just get rid of him before we have to pay him is my guess. He has not been paid yet.

right yeah he's up oh he has some yeah he has some weird contract stuff right like oh he did he did take a big hit he did so he did sign a new deal in 2025 interesting i mean i just think that they the injury stuff and out of position that he's playing guard probably um like they'll just get a whatever third round pick for him whatever we can get for for him now um yeah they got a second and it feels like they're they're doing a rebuild on the fly of this team so uh really curious to see what the Eagles do from here. What do you think for Baltimore there? Because like, I like, I think Vegas has been playing centers.

He goes now back to guard where he should be. And this is a really big upgrade. If he's healthy, of course, for the Ravens. This is also for the Ravens. Yeah. Everyone's like, it's funny. Everyone's sort of, Durgens had some really bad tape.

Like he had some really bad tape in week, week on. He had some really bad tape. Like later, I forget which game he looked worse than. But everyone's sort of clowning the. Ravens for this and saying like PFF how he's that again. He's getting a pick in a year or two years. It's 2028 second. He moved to AJ Brown, who's been injured and now Juergens.

And it's like, okay. I mean, I guess it's just so interesting, like how the internet gives him credit for every single move for 40 chess. And it's like, well, Baltimore thinks he's good enough to be worth the second round pick. It's the highest price paid for an interior of offensive linemen in a trade. I think I can't remember since when, but certainly since I can remember. Like somebody's wrong here. I'm curious to see who it is, but if the Eagles are just like completely falling apart on the offensive line, I do think we have to consider that.

I was talking with someone yesterday in a team who mentioned that an elite offensive line coach, he thinks is worth like $10 million plus to an organization. Like, that's what you should pay a guy like Jeff Stoutlin. And I think we're seeing that play itself out right now where Jeff Stoutland, like, is that, remember when the Patriots, when Scarnatlin, when Scarnia. was gone for like a year and they begged them to come back because the office line went to shit like they're that valuable and losing style in has just crushed the eagles it absolutely has yeah it's really true i mean i i i've both yeah i could go on this for a long time i know that we have to get through our picks but um i think sometimes yeah even just continuity is so important just knowing like your your guys got your back and knowing the personnel and

just the relationship i think is really important too and you know that's that's something I was thinking about last night watching the bucks. It's like every year new coordinator, like at some point that does take its toll. It's taking its toll on the Eagles too. Where, you know, on a team where everything changes all the time, it must be nice to just be like, yep, this guy who's awesome is just going to be there.

Like, yeah, it helps. Yeah, it does. All right, let's get to I think the first game is Eagles, right? Eagles Jaguars in London. It is, yeah, nice segue. And the Eagles are going to London. I can't believe this, Jeff. There's seven and a half point hundred dollars to Jacksonville. and like this to me is just like all narrative like it's it's no lane it's jurgens is out it's

you know barclay is injured and big spree is injured i think we just i think we just stay away from this i think we stay away but like this just seems like a crazy overreaction to me like the jadad wires everyone talks about how great they are like their their offenses middle of the pack statistically their defense is bottom five statistically like i just don't see them as an eight-point favorite over the Eagles. Like, it just seems crazy to me. It feels, um, it feels very, very high. It's like if they don't trade, like, if Lane retired and they didn't trade Juergens, I feel like this is five and a half or something. It's just, it just seems outrageous.

Oh, I think if, if it might, yeah, it's, it's, it's extreme public overreaction to to all the retirements. Yeah. It's just, it's narrative. And I don't know. I mean, this line a week ago was two and a half. Like, it, it, is, our bar. And Laine and Juergens worth five, five points, like, I guess. Feels like a lot. I don't know. I want to put Philly in the Mabies just because. Okay.

Just because if we need a fifth, this one just, I don't know, London game, we shouldn't bet on the London game. It's who wants to take Philly right now, but that's kind of why you take Philly is because of, you know, the narrative taken over. Yeah. All right. So that's at 930 Pacific, or sorry, Eastern 630%.

Pacific. The other NFC game is the Giants and the commanders. The commanders are three and a half for even four point favorites now and getting none of the tickets and yet the line keeps moving towards them. So Jane Daniels is playing, right? Yes. I would definitely take commanders or nothing in this game. 100%. But I don't know, I mean, sell me on your team. I don't know if that's what I want to put in the contest. We can't take them because we need to see Jaden complete a game and win. I can't I mean it's been forever like we just got it I think the last I mean the last time we did it I feel like was the Chargers last year and like week two or three or something like we have to see him complete a game

I think it's super interesting that this that the commanders are favored by this much against the team I don't think the Giants are very good though that's the Giants dude it is time to sell the Giants and this is going to be a game James Winston is like one of the worst quarterbacks against the Blitz and the commander's blitz all the time second most behind I wonder what the Giants team total is. So they have commanders for wins. Commander, Saints, Texans, Eagles, commanders,

Jacks, Colts, Niners, Seahawks, Browns, Lions, Cowboys, Eagles. Yeah, it's probably time to sell, but I'm curious what they're at. I took Eagles, like, no playoffs and after the Lane News and, and I feel pretty good about that one. That was still like you, even money. I'm obviously not a good guy to listen to one on this, but I kind of feel like Commander's Division is not a stupid bet. if Daniels can just play.

You have the second or first best quarterback depending on how you feel about Daniels when he's healthy. Yeah. And like to be honest, they might have the best defense now. Like that's crazy to say, but they might. And,

you know, they have it, they have like a weirdly tricky schedule. They still play the Rams and the Niners. But they also play like a whole at AFC South. So it's a, it's just a bet on Daniels being healthy. And I don't know how you can make that bet

unfortunately right now. All right. So I think that's a pass. Public is all over the Giants, getting three quarters of the tickets and money. Good luck to you guys. Texans at Titans. Texans are seven and a half point road favorites.

Okay. I can't look this up. I don't have the, maybe I ask Bill Barnwell to look up for me. What was the last time? I mean, Evan Abrams would probably be better for this. When was the last time a 0 and 4 team

was a seven and a half point favorite on the road in week five? and I kind of like them that's the best part I'm not I mean we could put Houston the Mabies but I that I mean I I've lost every bed on Houston all year I think we just we just have to just they're not they're like the Falcons

they're like an unplayable team right now for me yeah we've just got to see it let me see if I have an answer to your question there the Titans just I do have these stats in front of me Titans have lost 10 straight to the AFC South the Texans also haven't covered this whole season. Of course, they haven't won. And the Texans are getting

95% of the money line tickets. I kind of feel like this is a Titan spot. It's just, we can't bet it. No, no chance. No chance. We can't do it. Really, really ugly game. What do you think? So we'll get to this with Denver too. You can take a victory lap or maybe Michigan. I forget who's take it really was. But Dimeco Ryan's is taking back the play calling this week. So is Sean

Peyton. What is that? Like, why now? Why are you doing that in a week five? Like, shouldn't, like, I guess, I'm just confused why you make that choice. Well, a couple of things. I mean, there's different situations, but I think, like, with your specialty, you're the captain of the ship and you go down with the ship. Like, you, like, if, like, if, like, if you're a captain, right? Okay. And you're letting the first officer drive. You're like, this is just not going well. You just do it yourself. Yes. They're like, they're doing themselves.

Like I'm going down, I'm going down to ship. It's my ship. I get to write the ship. I get to change, I get to change course. I don't get to hit the, you know, if I'm in charge,

I don't hit the iceberg, right? Like, that's, that's what this is about. And so I get it from both their perspectives. We'll talk about Denver a little bit more, I would imagine, but I,

I, Sean Payne just has to, it's not working out. Now, it doesn't mean Bo Nix will figure how to throw a dagger concept correctly. But, you know, it is, it's their way to take control back because that's what they know how to do.

Yeah, it's super interesting. But yeah, let's see it from Houston. Last week, they were winless in the week four and they played the Titans and wanted to turn it around. So I'm sure they're hoping for the same this year, week later. All right, Vikings at Saints. I have a feeling we're going to be hitting this one. This is, the Vikings are road favorites by two and a half points against the Saints who just got blown out on national television. signed me up for the New Orleans Saints

plus two and a half. Just put that down. You can sharpie that immediately. A couple of reasons here. One is that, you know, the top of us often, like the national TV blowout game, the next game, you play much better, right?

We have numbers on that. That's something that's concrete. You don't want to be embarrassed two weeks in a row. But the Vikings kind of stink for being four and oh. Their offense, Matt, is atrocious. It's one of the worst in the NFL, if not the worst of the NFL. It's not good.

And the Saints, look, they have their own issues. They start slow every single game. It's not good. It looks like Chuck might have regressed a little bit. I don't love him against Brian Forrest pressure schemes, all that stuff. But they got enough dudes if you get the ball in their hands in space, they can make you pay. This is a play on just an 0-4 Vikings team. I don't think it's very good.

Saints team being embarrassed. They're at home here. So I like the Saints here plus two and a half. Yeah, you got to do it. It's just a blind take, I think, here. I think everyone's still, I almost feel like the Saints are still. still a little overrated here. I just think that the Shuck thing is like,

it's been fun, but we look at these teams. He's played like that game against the Lions, like the Ravens game was just like, that's kind of what the Ravens do with their defense's a little suspect. So I just think that, yeah, Kyler Murray is a road favorite. This offense, I don't think they've crossed 250 yards all season.

So, you know, at some point the Vikings luck is going to run out. And I mean, the Saints making a home stand here. It makes sense. I agree. Tricky one to cap here. Bengals' Dolphins.

Bengals, six and a half road favorites. Give me the dolphins in this one. Are we just going to ride the dolphins every week? I think so. So, look, the dolphins are not good, but they are a feisty team, right? The Chiefs, they didn't cover against Kansas City, but they certainly could have. They covered last week.

Thank you, Hawkinsstein, for falling down there at the end. I thought I should have scored, but I get why he didn't. But there's just more of a playing like... Hockenstein. Is that who it is? What I say? Hawkinson? Hawkinson.

Hawkinson. Maybe he's one of us. I just, the Bengals started fast and since then they've looked pretty average. Their offense has not been clicking very well. The numbers are bad for the success rate under center. Like just it's stuff you should be good at their bit. They're not good at.

I love that Zach Taylor is the fourth most tenure coach and he has no Super Bowl. No Super Bowl is but in one. Can't make the playoffs most years. The defense has sort of regressed back a little bit as well. I just like the dolphin in the spot Outdoor, a little hot Bengals going to play in the heat outside You're a little hot, heat index

up to 100. Yeah, so I like the dolphin. I think they'll keep this game a little feisty here. I mean, I, Tehiggins beat up, Jamar Chase might not play, easy concussion protocol. I like the Dolphins, you're getting six and a half. Yeah, I mean, as we're recording this,

I literally think by the time we stop the show at 9 o'clock Pacific, we will hear about Jamar Chase and whether he's playing or not and will look smart or dumb as a result because this feels like a bit of a hedge but the other thing with the Bengals is they have their buy next week like this could just be one of those games

where they just try to get out of it unscathed and get a little cute like it just you know Chase Brown hasn't had a good game yet really this year like this could just be the game where they try to get him going a little P-Rine and it just sort of turns into a low-scoring affair where they just try to get burrow out of there in one piece agree.

The Dolphins are battling man. They're battling. Yeah, credit to that. I mean, it's remarkable that they just keep up. I wish this was seven. And I will take a scan to see if we can get a seven because it's hovered around there. But yeah, especially a dude. If there's no Jamar Chase or T. Higgins, like how the Bengals might not even win this game.

Correct. All right. My favorite of the week. Brown's at Jets. Jets are two and a half point favorites. Who on earth would be on the jet side? We can't get a one and a half or one? It's just two and a half now.

Let's see. Let's see if we can find it But obviously I think we're aligned here This is the mother of all Do you see one to half Public sharp like all those things line up in this game because You look at the 3 in 1 Browns

You're like, why are they an underdog in New York And there are a couple reasons for that Analytically the Browns are power rate Like 29th in the NFL Their power rating is not very high in the NFL The Jets have played close football games The problem is betting on Aaron Glenn is really not a place you ever want to be, in my opinion.

But all the money is on the Browns in this one. This is a mother of trap spot. And I don't talk about this often in the NFL. So you just win a national TV game against the Steelers. You play now the lowly jets who are not very good. And next week you host the Ravens. So in your mind and you think, yourself, if we win this one, we're four and one against the Ravens.

Like, it's not the way the NFL works, man. Not the way the NFL works. It's not. So I like the Jets here. Any more thoughts on this one? Browns are amazing on Thursday night football. Yes, they've been forever. They've won 10.

They've covered 10 of their last 13. And then in the last four games, they've just lost and not covered straight up the next four games. Tradition, in the last 14 times, a three-and-one underdog has faced a one-and-three team. Those underdogs are four and ten against the spread. Watson has never won and covered four straight. Is this the time? Is this it? You also just look at these two teams.

The Browns have just been lucky. Every game has been close and they've won most of them. Every game for the Jets has been close pretty much, except last week really, and they've lost them all. I just think we're also, there is a one and a half out there, Jeff. And I love that. The Jets only laying a point and a half. Couldn't be faster to run up to the window on this one. And by the way, there is a plus seven for the dolphins out there too.

Really? Oh, okay. Yeah, great. So let's, we just found, it's the advantage of being unsponsored by a book. We can shop around. We'll clearly take a sponsorship, though. I'm not going to lie. We will take a sponsorship, and we will happily take a sponsorship.

Good reminder. We are free to be sponsored. Check with our friends at Odyssey. Okay, we've got, we've got three that we really like, and another maybe here. How about a Colt Steelers? That's a, that's in Pittsburgh. Two and a half point favorites are the Steelers. This is a curious line.

Because I feel like no one trusts the Steelers, but I do think they are deserved favorites. I have no opinion on this game. I have no idea what to do with it. If there's a Mike Tomlin Steelers, I bet the Colts. I don't know the Colts are very good. What do you make of all to talk about, have I told you, we talked about the Colts owner writing notes during games? Yes.

We've talked about this before. Let's talk about it again. It just feels like there's like two extremes, right? It's like this is the odd thing I've ever seen or she can do what she wants. And I just want to know what she's writing. Like, I know she's talked about, like, I wrote down if I, if whose fault it wasn't a play. But like, why does that matter to any decision you're making? Like, one, I didn't, I'm just so fascinated, like, what the purpose of it.

Like, at the end of the year, you're going to review all the notes and, like, figure out if you're keeping the coach or firing the coach. I'm just so fascinated by, like, what the process is here, Matt, to use this information for what? Dude, great question. And it's something I've, it's something I've wondered. It's her billion plus dollar business. She can do what she wants. I don't care. Who cares?

She's taking notes. But like what, what, like, practically speaking, what are the notes for to understand the game better? Okay, great. But the best owners don't really know football. You just hire the right people. Yeah. Your job's to hire the right people.

Like, that's your job. It's very unusual. And I think that, you know, the lesson here, I'm sure that, you know, Jerry Jones is writing stuff down during the game, but he's got his way of doing things. I think that this is just a bit of a novelty. And somebody should probably tell her like, hey, like, people are talking about this. Like, is that what you want? Or do you want them to be talking about Jonathan Taylor?

Like, maybe just, she did interview this week. I think she's fine talking about it. Yeah, it's just, it's kind of interesting. I just think I always find the one that pisses me off, dude, is, is like, when the Falcons are winning, and they just like cut to the sidelines and there's Arthur Blank. He's on the field. He's always on the field. It's like he was up.

He was on the field in 2832. Like he's just on the field. It's like, oh, we're winning. I'm here. It's time for me to bask in the glory of this win against the Saints. Like it just drives me crazy. Like just sit up there, man. Like you own the team.

Congratulations. You're not out there making chip locks. I agree. It's so weird to me. It's always like there's blank. He's standing next to John Robinson. It's like, dude, you didn't do anything. You just wrote the check.

congratulations. No, dude, they want the spotlight. I get it. I get it too. They own a massive investment. Congratulations. So we're passing on this game. I'm passing on this game, yes.

I filibuster to talk about something else. Yeah, no, it's fine. I can't tell who I like here. I've gone back and forth. Can I reveal one stat? This was actually some original research by me here. So I was sort of thinking that the reason to take Pittsburgh here would be the rest advantage, right?

because they played last Thursday, and then the Colts are coming back from London. They skip the buy. Well, teams who have come off that international game with no buy actually have a winning record. They're 16 and 9 straight up coming back. They've won their last four. This year, everybody who's done it is 4 and 0.

The Ravens, Cowboys, Rams, and 49ers are all undefeated coming back off the international, which is just kind of an interesting trend. So I think if you're trying to make the case that, you know, the extended rest is a thing, then you're making the wrong case. So I just found that to be super interesting. Interesting. All right. Moving on to Raiders Pat's last game in the one o'clock's.

Raiders are three and a half point underdogs in New England's strange line to me. The public is just going to love the Raiders. And I feel like this is just fishing and I don't want no part of it. I would take New England or nothing. but this is just a terrible number. I mean, the number is telling you a bet New England, by the way, three and a half. That's what they're telling you.

And if you get a three on Sunday, maybe include it into something if you want to do something. Not going to get it. Not going to get it for me. I'm out this game. No chance. This line's just not budging, and no one is batting New England.

So it's fishy. That's a stay away. There is one more game I've missed, actually, in the one o'clock. and that is Green Bay and Chicago. Green Bay is catching a point or a point and a half at home now. It's a Tyson agent at all. So sad news, Mike Dicka passed away a couple minutes, at least the announcement was a couple of minutes ago.

So, yeah, so that's, you know, obviously legend of the NFL world and community. And, yeah, so he just want to bring that up. I guess you're listening to this, you probably know by now, but I feel like a, you know, part of our childhood, right? When we talk about the bear, he's talking about Mike Dicka. That's crazy. Quite a newsbreak.

Yeah, that's a big loss for a lot of people. Great player. People don't really know about his playing career. One of the all-time great tight ends. Shout out to him. What a great life. He was a football lifer. As far as this game, Matt, haven't we made it a rule?

We're just not going to bet on teams with bad offensive lines. Yeah. Like, we just can't bet on the Packers. It's impossible to do that. Yeah. I just feel like the Bears luck is going to run out at some point, but I don't really want to catch that fallen knife here. Just feels a little strange, you know,

laying a point with Tyson Bayesian. They've just, everything's gone their way so far this season. Like, everybody's including them in the top couple teams. Yeah. I just, I'm not sure I see it.

And Green Bay, everyone's writing off. I kind of feel like Green Bay would be in a good spot here, but I don't want to make the case for it, really. I don't either. All right. So speaking of falling knives, Broncos at Chargers to start the late window.

Chargers are three and a half point home dogs. Again, the books are telling you to take Denver here. Kind of like Denver in this game. I know, man. I do too. I mean,

like, okay, first of all, I was right about Bo Nix. Let's get that out of the way. I just, I can't believe I mess that one thing up. Jeez,

I would have a perfect clip, Matt. I'd be perfect, right? Because I would want to say, he's not as accurate on throwing the ball down the field, which he's been terrible at it. It doesn't throw a ball. I also said on the show doesn't throw the ball in the middle of the

hashes. He doesn't. His A dot's like four this year. It's absolutely, everything I said about Bo Nix has come true. It's not going to change with Sean Payne Cohn the plays. But Matt, this is not about the Chargers. It's not about the Chargers. We're back to the shitty offensive line version of the Chargers again where all their guys are hurt again. Like, how are they going to score in this game? They can't score when everyone's healthy. How are they going to score against this Broncos defense? How are they going to do it? I don't know. I think like the idea that like, well, the Chargers can't go 0 and 5.

They can't go 0 and 6. Like they can. They can. And the problem, did you see this? That I think the Chargers are going to be starting four rookies on the offensive line this week. It's insane. Two backup tackles, a backup center. We got to get the Broncos.

I think we do. And like Denver, Denver and Sean Payton's getting the play calling back this week. Like, this could be the week that they just run it up. I'm not sure. that it's going to really change like Bowenix throwing the ball down the field which he has to do better.

But like you look at the Bronco's schedule. They have the Seahawks next on Thursday, then the Cardinals and the Chiefs. They got to win this game. They do. But the Broncos have had no running game. And I think that's something that they can fix pretty easily with just like

not throwing it the whole game. I know. I agree. Dobbins has just gotten nothing done. Like they haven't used Tarvey. Like maybe Dobbins is just, just washed, but that offensive line, like when they get in rhythm, they can just kick your ass. And yes, I could see it happening here. The Charter is just like one of the most banged up teams again. And yeah, I just think, I wonder if we could find a three anywhere, but because this one is

split pretty much down the middle. There is a three. Let's take it. Okay. Let's do three then. Wow, shopping around has been great to us today. Denver. Yes, it has. Minus three. No home field advantage here in L.A. All right. So we have, we definitely have four we like. All right. Moving on. Let me see. You lost my place here. All right, 49ers Seahawks.

Seahawks are three and a half point home favorites. There's threes out there. I like Christian McCaffrey over four and a half reception in this game. That's what the Niners do in these big games and good defenses. McCaffrey gets a ton of touches in this game. I mean, I would, I don't, I think Niners are nothing in this game, Matt, but I don't feel great about it because the Seahawks Molloywop them with all the injuries Niners have absolutely.

But I just keep chucking along, man. They just keep making plays and doing enough. But I'm not. I don't have a great strong feeling on this one. Do you? I like the 49ers. Yeah, I mean, four or nothing. I mean, it's not my favorite of the week. You said Seattle or nothing.

I like, oh, I made Niners. I'm sorry. I meant Niners. I'm sorry. Yeah, I like the 49ers catching three and a half. I just, I don't know. I mean, Seattle, I just don't think is quite as good as they were last year. I know that's sort of just an easy argument to make, but they don't have a

attacking attacks on. On one hand, we're giving Kubiak all this credit for the Raiders success. And then we're not docking the Seahawks at all. Darnold just hasn't looked completely like himself. The defense, like it's a little bit leaky. Like, they're obviously still the Seahawks, but they gave up 33 points to Marcus Mario to two weeks ago. I just think they're not quite as good as they were.

And I think the 49ers really aren't getting credit. I mean, they haven't really played anyone. They did beat Denver last week, but they played the Rams in that sleepwalking game that everyone was just kind of thrown out. It's like they did beat the shit out of the Rams. I know, I agree. And then they came back and had two kind of weird games

against two bad teams, but I just think the 49ers are playing awesome football. And, you know, they could have, they don't, the injuries for whatever reason don't seem to matter. And I do feel like this could be a bit of a statement game for Shanahan, who's awesome as a three plus point underdog in his career.

I have three and a half to me feels like a good value but I I'm I'm not going to make us take it. Uh, it's on the maybe because we were going to have, I mean, I love. I'd rather take that than Philly. No, I'm not taking Philly. No chance. Yeah, I definitely. That's so now we've got we do have five now. All right. A couple games left. Lions Cardinals. Cardinals are catching five and a half at home. I love Arizona in this game.

Yeah, I do too. What do we do? What? I do too. The, what you're going to call defense is atrocious. It's horrible, man. It's like 31st or 30 seconds in every category. Their DC is like having weird press conferences.

Yep. Covering his mouth to give plays is so funny to me. I'm like, yeah, I don't think anyone's worried about your play call. So absolutely sign up for Arizona plus five hours. Their offense can move the ball. They're feisty. They play hard. Their defense stinks, whatever.

This game is probably 4035. But 4035 gets me a cover, man. Yes. I couldn't agree more. Lions have just been big favorites every week. And they seem to just be disappointing all the time. Yeah. This could go wrong.

This could go horribly wrong. I will say that the Lions could put up 50 inside and it could be a track meet. Sure. But I'm way okay taking the Cardinals. Yeah, me too. All right. Arizona is in the mix. We got five down.

We got six. We really like. Ravens Falcons, I think is a pass without, without the Lamar knowledge at this point. The book obviously assumes that Lamar will not play. Correct. I think it's a pass for now, yes. Yeah, that's Sunday night.

So that'll be a fun game either way. Any news for the Ravens this week? I haven't really heard anything. Interesting. I've not heard anything. Yeah, same. Good luck. Did you guys record a show this week with them or not?

We did. We did. Was it out like today? When was it out? Monday. Oh, okay. Yeah, before. Oh, before.

Okay. I don't know if you did anything after. Yep. Monty and football, bills and Rams. Rams are three to three and a half point favorites at home. I'm not playing this game at all. Like the Rams.

I like him so much here. The Rams are definitely the right decision. I like the Rams, dude. This feels like the classic, like Rams are back. Oh, what happened to Buffalo?

Like the books, by the way, like this, the public just loves the bills. This is such a, This is just such a sucker bet. It might be right. The bills can certainly win,

but they are getting three quarters of the bets and only 59% of the money. The line has not moved. It's moved actually in favor of the Rams because everybody who's like all the sharps are all over the Rams. I just, this is such a ram spot. I know.

And there's a three out there. I know. I know. I know. The problem is I think where our card is is booked up. Yeah. Well, I'm just going to take the, I'm just going to.

just going to enjoy better. This feels like a good week. I feel like we're got something. So here's the five I think we're on. We're on New Orleans, correct? Yep. We're on the dolphins plus seven. God, the dolphins.

Yep, all right. Jets plus minus one and a half, yes. Black City. Arizona, yes. Denver? Denver, yes. Do you want to replace the dolphins, which you seem to not like

with either the Niners or Rams? What do you think? I mean, I mean, the Bengals going to win 31 20 28 17 I mean if Chase let's see if there's an update on Chase since we started

I don't think you're gonna have it I haven't seen anything come up on Twitter yet at practice Friday all right let's see he's in uniform you just don't know I mean you just don't know because he can't get his protocol like he might wake up Sunday

have a headache and might have to go back in protocol or he might be fine yeah T. Higgins did not practice I mean the dolphins The seven is nice. I know. This also, this feels very much like a game that the dolphins could,

could sneak out. I'm fine with it. We liked it. I think, I think, I think, I think, I think if you did it like a, like a, if you did a round robin money line of these five games,

you'd make some money. I agree. Okay. Let's do it. Let's take the dolphins. So, I like our picks this week, buddy.

Saints, Dolphins, Jets, Cardos. Denver minus three. I love them, dude. Maybe the first one I've liked all five. And we got great numbers. We shot it around. We got really good. Is it good or bad that we like it so much? It's a disaster. Oh, God. Especially because there's three more I also like.

Like, I do like Philly. I went seven and one in college, and we went four and one in our show. So this is going to be a bad week. Just, it's going to be a bad week. No, we got this. Positivity. I like my college plays too. So two of them are super public, which is unfortunate.

it is what it is sometimes in college. I don't really worry about as much of college as the NFL. All right. Any last words, sir? Let's go. Five and no. This is the week. Five and no.

Let's do it. All right, everyone. We'll talk to you on Tuesday. Take care of a great weekend of watching Ball. Good luck. Back on Tuesday with Mitch, take care, everyone.