Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - NFL Draft Recap, Deandre Hopkins' Suspension, and More NIL Madness

Episode Date: May 4, 2022

Geoff is back with Gabe to recap the 2022 NFL Draft, starting with some big takeaways, and getting into some of the best and worst picks. Some teams (cough cough Chiefs) had great weekends while other teams (cough Cardinals)... not so much. Then Geoff breaks down his theory on Deandre Hopkins' suspension for testing positive for PEDs, and gives some updates on the state of NIL deals, including a prediction for what they'll look like a few years down the road.This week on Moving the Line, Geoff and Gabe debate Winning Time's place in the pantheon of sports TV series, Geoff places a moratorium on all Deebo Samuel talk, and Hank learns how to change a tire.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's wednesday may 4th i'm jeff schwartz alongside gabe gill and this jeff schwartz is smart you powered by the varsity podcast network and we are here to talk all things football recap the nfl draft a suspension for a prominent wide receiver in the nfl and a topic that is hot in the streets gabe nil name him your likeness in college sports talk about that and guess what guys everyone everyone guess you guessed it Gabe is a Jets fan again after their great draft so Gabe I'm back welcome to the program glad to have you how was your draft experience as a newly Jets fan again well my Jets had the best draft of the weekend I think we can all agree on that the first uh 36 picks treated them very well we will talk

about that in detail in a moment. But yeah, you know, it was just a brief sojourn. I was only gone for a season or two. But here I am. I'm back. J-E-T-S. Jets, Jets, Jets. Let's do it.

Gabe is the fan that has the bumper sticker of the Cowboys, the Lakers, Alabama on it, and Ohio State. No, that's completely unfair. I'm the guy who has the bumper sticker of like all the shitty teams that never win and all their fans are miserable. I don't like a single good team. Your baseball team is like the second best team in baseball right now. My Angels? Your Mets.

Oh, I can't keep track of which team is my team. All right. Let's get to some NFL draft. So listen, the takes were flying all weekend long. We could take this in a few different directions. Let me just throw a few things out there. My Jets and also the Giants, sometimes accused of being your Giants, were the big winners in the first round. People didn't like what the Pats and Cowboys did. Everybody loves two things, Jeff. Wide receivers and Georgia defensive players. Those were sort of the dominant storylines that set people off all weekend. I'll let you pick it up wherever you want. Where did people go off? Where did people get it right? Give me some draft take recap.

Yeah, look, I'll credit the NFL for not giving in to the quarterbacks. We talked about how these quarterbacks were not as good as people wanted them to be, at least on paper. And the NFL said, yeah, guess what? You're correct. We're not going to do it. Kenny Pickett went 20th, and then Malik Wills went 60. Now, is there a 40-spot difference in the talent of those players?

No. But the NFL determined, hey, man, we're just not going to take those guys. And there's obviously a giant run on wide receivers in the NFL now. That is the thing to have. You must have a wide receiver, and you must if you're going to be good. But, man, it went ham on those guys in that first round. We know obviously in the second round, the Packers and Chiefs. But my general takeaway is the same as it seems to be every year, Gabe,

is that there's a reason that good teams stay good. They just win the draft every year. And there's a reason that bad teams stay bad. They lose the draft every year. They take guys that are not the value of where they're supposed to be. But, of course, look, your Jets are getting better at that, right? But, like, it's just that, you know, Jacksonville trades up for a linebacker. I love Devin Lloyd.

But, like, you don't trade up for a linebacker. They take the defensive end, Walker, with maybe the most upside, but the most raw of those guys. They need to hit that home run first pick overall. They do not need to have a guy that has four sacks his first season because he's learning how to play the position, right? They need to not

do that. Arizona, man. We ran Arizona all the time. What are y'all doing? What are we doing? You just signed Zach Ertz to a big contract. Then you take your second pick and draft a tight end? Is that position a need for Arizona? The teams that over the years have struggled continue to struggle in the draft. I thought for the most part a lot of teams did what they had to do.

It ended up being a good draft for most of the NFL. All right. Let me throw a few things at you that were my quick reactions. And then we're going to get to, we'll put a few categories out there and you tell us who won and lost. But so you mentioned Malik Willis, he falls to the third round. That became a surprise over the weekend because for three months, all we'd heard was, you know, this guy could be the top quarterback. He came from nowhere. All of a sudden,

everyone was talking about him and then he slides to about where a project should land I felt bad for him I felt like the hype machine sort of swept him up and then spit him out and you know he probably started to believe his own hype for a while do you think that it's fair the way that we emphasize certain players especially quarterbacks only to see that the league just isn't that interested in them. Well, you know, there's always the tough part about the mock draft system, is like, what are we hearing that is actually from the teams? Now, there are certain guys that get it right. I mean, we've had Dane Brugler on before.

We had him on last year, I think. And he got like 30 of 32 players correctly in the first, and not obviously in the right slot, but like 30 of the 32 were drafted. I think Cole Strange wasn't one of them. And then I think he had Malik Wills in the first round as well. So, you know, some of those guys, they're plugged in, right? They know. But a lot of times, sometimes they don't, right?

And we're taking guesses on where guys are at. There was talk about Jermaine Johnson, the defensive end from Florida State, as being a guy that was looked at as a potential top 10 pick. Clearly not. The Jets had to trade back up in the first round for him, right? Like, clearly teams did not value him like we valued him. Then we don't know about medical issues

where Kobe Dean, you know, Kinnard, goes to Kansas City much later than he should have because of medical stuff. And so, in the end, this is where teams value these players, is where they end up going. Because if teams had a second-round grade on Malik Willis, he would have gone in the second round. Teams wouldn't have waited.

But I think Tennessee looked and said, hey, man, we need to prepare for the future. I give Tennessee credit. They have some really good people running that team. They realized, I think, like, hey, I know we've been good, but we're not good enough. It's just, it's a path we want to go. It's just, we want to change what we're doing. We need to get younger.

We need to get more, you know, more agile as a roster. And I'm just not, and I give them credit for just saying like, hey man, we might take a step back this year. Kansas City made the same decision, but in two or three years, we're better for it. And I do appreciate the way the Titans went about that. So, you know, that's kind of where I'm at with, I just, I feel bad for those players. I mean, they're in the green room forever. It must suck to think you're going, but that's immediate creation, dude.

I mean, I can't, it's tough on those guys, but this is what the draft is. Someone's going to fall every year. It's a matter of who that's going to be. But normally they don't fall that far, though. That was rough for those kids, I have to imagine. Yeah, but then they use it as fuel, and then that becomes their story when they make a Pro Bowl or Super Bowl one day. That's what's going to be credited with making Malik Willis great one day.

How about this also? I thought you've mentioned a few of these guys, and Jermaine Johnson was a guy who transferred from Georgia. The whole first round was Georgia defensive players, and then a few of these guys and Jermaine Johnson was a Georgia, a guy who transferred from Georgia. The whole first round was Georgia defensive players and then a few more guys were taken. My reaction to that is, wait a minute, hold on. We know it was a great unit. It won him a title. All of these guys are obviously big recruits and great players, all worthy of being NFL players. I'm not disputing that. But how is it possible that you can have six guys on one defensive unit, all be NFL first rounders and not say to yourself, but wait a

minute, then aren't they just a little bit better because the five other guys around them? Like, doesn't it sort of undermine each of their individual skill that so many of them are NFL players? Can't a few of these guys just be bust now? Well, yes and no. The reason they have all these pro guys, they're five-star guys. They recruited. And their coach is really good, Kirby Smart and Dan Lanning, who's now an Oregon's head coach.

I'm pretty pumped about that, by the way. I'm like, the guy that got all these guys drafted is now coaching Oregon? Sweet. I'll take that. And it just shows you that the defense was very historic for a reason. And guess what? They have two or three guys next year that are going to be you that the defense was very historic for a reason. And guess what? They have two or three guys next year that are going to be drafted in the first round off this defense as well.

They have a cornerback. There's a defensive lineman, number 88. I forget his name. I can go find it. He's supposedly better than Walker and Davis. Like, they have dudes. That's why they win the championship. That's why Alabama gets a lot of guys drafted.

It comes down to that. And you're probably right that they help each other out, but they do play just sound defense, man. It's good to watch, fun to watch. So that tells you, also we'll get to that name and likeness in a little bit, but that gives a good idea

of the haves and have-nots. And I'm not sure that's going to change very much, but Georgia was a have last year. They had the dudes, and before the season, everyone was like, look, Georgia has the guys. Can they do it? And they did it, and this is a product of that.

You get a bunch of guys drafted. And yeah, I think it helps. If Trevon Walker is at UCLA, he's not the first pick overall. No, he wouldn't be for sure. Well, all right, so Georgia probably won the draft. Let's talk about which NFL team you think improved the most. And we'll go through these sort of a speed round. So give me

your team that you thought had the best draft weekend, not just the first round overall. So I look, the easy ones are like, you know, the Ravens, the Lions, the Chiefs, you know, the Ravens just continue to take guys that will be immediate starters for them. And look, Kansas City, we entered the draft needing three positions, that would be immediate starters for them. And look, Kansas City, we entered the draft needing three positions. Corner, defensive end, wide receiver. Corner, defensive end, wide receiver, first three draft picks.

They added some taller, lengthier corners later, and they got Justin Ross, man. The wide receiver from Clemson who was the best wide receiver three years ago. He has a little neck issue, so I'm not sure he's going to play in the NFL, but he's worth the undrafted free agent status. He was nasty a few years ago. He was the best guy on that team with all those guys we now see in the NFL, but he's worth the undrafted free agent status. He was nasty a few years ago. He was the best guy on that team with all those guys we now see in the NFL. So I thought they did what they had to do.

They found the guys where they needed to be in value positions. PFF had them as a great team compared to the consensus big board where they drafted. I thought the Lions did good, man. The Lions are interesting. The Lions are – there's two ways to rebuild, right? You go find your quarterback and you take a couple years to build around him. Like the Jets are doing. Good example, right?

Or what the Lions are doing. Which is you just take good football players and you get your quarterback when it's convenient to get your quarterback, right? And they're doing that. They're taking good football players. They took good ones last year. They took good ones again this year. And they'll need a quarterback eventually and maybe next year's the year but when you add that quarterback your acceleration now can take off much quicker because you have the players in place for that to happen so i think i think 2023 draft of the lines have got to do it they have got to draft a quarterback and they. There's a much bigger pool of quarterbacks. There's at least

five with probably the first round as of right now, maybe six. Mel Kuyper said over six and a half. I saw that. It feels too much. But, you know, there's obviously C.J. Stroud. There's Bryce Young. There's Will Levis from Kentucky. There's Tyler Van Dyke from Miami. There's Tanner McGee from Stanford. Like, there's a lot of dudes that are going to be in the first

round next year. And there's always someone that pops up randomly. So the lions are doing a rebuild differently. They're again, they're getting the core together and they'll add the quarterback to that. It's kind of interesting how they're doing it. Like, like we just assume, and they're going to be bad this year.

And they're like, okay with being bad as long as they build up around the team to add that quarterback. Yeah. The irony of that is they're, they're sort of trying to do what the Rams did when the Rams took their quarterback. So they'll have to go find their version of Stafford in a year or two or draft someone who turns out to be a home run. All right. So best team, I'm going to say you like the lions with a one B being the Ravens and chiefs

best pick overall, which, which player in which spot really intrigued you? Oh, best pick overall. That's a good question. I'd say with first round guys, I would imagine, right? Yeah. I know what it was. I liked Evan Neal to the Giants. I was going to say that, of course.

They needed to shore up one tackle position. They got it. And they got the best guy second, basically, right? They had an opportunity to kind of decide who they wanted. And they ended up getting him where they did. So I thought that was good. You know, and this is another, I know we're kind of going, do the next category, because I'm going to have some of these as we go.

All right, biggest reach. And that doesn't mean he's going to be a bust, but who was a reach? I mean, it's pretty easy to say that Cole Strange was the reach on the Patriots, right? I mean, everyone's saying that. I don't really see why there's a deviation off that. I'll give you another one. Tyler Smith for the Cowboys was offensive lineman they

drafted. Most people that I trust, we've had Duke on and we've had Brandon Thorne on before the offensive lineman. I think it was a third-round draft pick. Technique is bad. Bad, bad, bad. To me, that was a reach, but obviously they like his ability to play guard early on and move out to left tackle.

All right. What about a guy who fell? We talked about Malik Willis. Anyone else who sort of surprised you as they fell later in the first? Kobe Dean fell all the way to the third round. The Georgia linebacker. It was medical issues, but he was maybe the best player on the field for the playoff games.

He looked like the best player out there. I don't know what the problem was. And it's obviously, you know, maybe he got some bad advice, but he dropped far. All right, biggest surprise, and I have an answer that the staff behind the scenes would like to hear from you, but biggest surprise of the draft for you. Biggest surprise of the draft. I mean, wasn't it the quarterbacks in the third round? I mean, that seemed very obvious.

But I think the Packers just not reaching early on. I thought they would go for wide receivers at all costs. But the Marquise Brown trade was atrocious for the Cardinals. Like that was just – they traded for a player who has been sort of unproductive. I mean, think about this game. The Ravens, I think, picked him at like 21 three years ago. They used him for three years and flipped him for a higher draft pick and don't have to pay him anymore.

Like, that's an incredible deal for the Ravens. Yeah, that deal would not have gone through in any fantasy football league in America. Just average guys would have been like, what? No, this sucks. We'll get to talk about that a little bit more when we talk about DeAndre Hopkins, what's going on with his suspension, because I think those two stories are connected. Let's do a couple more quick hitters here. The answer to biggest surprise for the record was the punt god not being the first punter taken. He was the 32nd pick in our mock draft last week.

Took him, I don't know, three, four rounds to get picked in the league. That surprised the whole internet especially hank i did not think that i had to go look up why this was but i did i felt the need to know and a thirst gave to know why i guess supposedly you know they just nfl team he kicks the ball like too far like not enough like not enough control on his punts wow okay he's too good at the thing that he does. Yes. He kicks it too far.

That's like, remember when the problem with Josh Allen was he threw too hard? Yes. It always sounded sort of stupid to me, but people kept saying it. And I was like, I don't get it. What do you mean he throws too hard? He plays in like the cold and the wind in Buffalo. He's going to sling it, man. And then now a couple years later, we're like, he's obviously going to be an MVP.

Shouldn't you want a punter who can punt it really far? I'm with you. Okay. Well, punt God, we'll see in the Pro Bowl. And then he went to Buffalo, right? We're like, they never punt. Not currently. Yeah. Wait till they have a good option, though. That guy's going to be booming it. Alright, listen, we talked

about DeAndre Hopkins, so I'm going to take us there. So he's been suspended for six games this coming season for a failed performance enhancing drug test from last november all right it's a little bit confusing so first of all huh maybe explain to me how the hell that's coming out now and i don't quite get all that he denies of course he does intentionally taking a banned substance but i have to bring this up Jeff. Isn't this the guy who wouldn't get the vaccine and now he's taken, intentionally or accidentally, he's taken something that makes him fail a drug test and potentially harms his body.

Like, what's going on here? So this is the, like, the end of the process. Like, he tested positive, my guess is in the season. And it was, you know, they test the backup samples, the appeal process, all that. It came out that this is the suspension. And my theory is that he just took HGH to recover from his injuries. I mean, that wouldn't surprise me. I don't know.

I wouldn't blame him for that, but that feels like what happened. He was hurt at the end of last season. I'm going to take something to help my recovery for the playoff games. Hope I don't get caught. And got caught. I don't care. I made it very clear in the past. He's got to live with that. I don't. I thought, too, to myself, my last

year in the NFL, if I took an HGH, man, I probably would have been able to play that last year. My ankle would have felt better, but it didn't. I just don't buy these sob stories about, like, I've never done this before, and maybe you haven't, and I would never put something in my body. I like when guys are like, yep, I fucked up. Do you remember when Andy Pettit got in trouble?

He's like, yep, I did it. I was trying to recover. And everyone's like, all right, cool, makes sense. Yeah, sure. Look, if he had said this, and again, he might be a tainted supplement, whatever. But if he had said this, Gabe, you know, I wanted to get back for the playoffs last year. I took some HGH. I'd feel better.

I got caught. Everyone would be like, all right, cool. Great teammate. You try to get back on the field. That's my guess of what happened. But I don't know. I guess take him by his word. I just don't believe older players that are hurt.

And when it's like all of a sudden they get popped for a substance like, oh, I don't know what happened. You've been you've been clean for nine years and then all of a sudden you don't know what happened. You've been taking the same stuff for nine years and then you just took a new supplement in year 10. All of a sudden that that no, you were hurt. You tried to come back. You took some stuff like just own it, man. Yeah. Also, again, I'm not harping on, I don't want to have a conversation about vaccines and anti-vaxxers and their opinions about the vaccine. I don't care. But if you are a person who states publicly that you are not going to do that because you're,

it worries you for some reason. All right. I understand. But then how are you accidentally taking stuff? Like, I don't, I don. But then how are you accidentally taking stuff? Like, I don't, I don't get how you are the same person who's like, absolutely not. I will not put that in my body. I don't believe that will help me, but you know, Hey, I'll just take this other thing and see what happens. It doesn't make sense. I saw one theory. Um, we're assuming a few things here. So let me just say this upfront that obviously there's no evidence of this. And I have no idea if the person referencing this knows what he's talking about, but Niner safety, Jimmy Ward in social seemed to be suggesting that maybe he took Molly MDMA

and that maybe it was, and then other people will think maybe it was sort of mixed. There was a, you know, something in it, but this is is a this is a pd not a drug suspension right but if if it was mixed and had an amphetamine in it i don't know a lot about these kinds of i mean i guess i guess that's possible i feel like my mind is more easily like oh yeah just try to get back from injury i took some hgh i think you're what you're describing is a lot more plausible yeah and it's possible he took molly i guess it's but i don't i mean they don't really drug test anymore so like they don't really they test for a set they don't really drug test you anymore so i guess i don't know but if you take a drug that is chopped up and

has other drugs in it and you think you're taking a recreational drug and it turns out it has something that's on the banned list oh no you can then credibly say you didn't know you certainly can yeah okay so i mean i don't i'm not in the business of giving deandre hopkins excuses i get i go back to this i just don't again he's in year 10 right i believe am i right on that he's been around a while i don't know if it's 10 we'd have to double check all of a sudden you go from taking nothing that you test positive to to after an injury plagued season you test positive like what what most guys don't like take new supplements in middle of season so you've been taking the same thing you've been taking

and all of a sudden now that's tainted or you accidentally put something in your body you don't know that was in there i i don't buy those stories. And again, I'm not judging these guys. Like, again, do what you got to do. He has to live now with having a positive test on his record. But like, this is probably what happened. Yeah. Six games feel fair to you? Well, not when you give six games for hitting a woman.

But I mean, I don't know. Like, we wrestle with this all the time, with the way the nfl punishes uh players for infractions yeah all right and then this came up earlier the cardinals in a head scratcher deal for hollywood brown and a third round pick they give up their first round pick in a in a year where there's a record-setting number of great wide receivers taken. People wonder, oh, maybe they knew this was coming. Maybe they knew they needed a weapon. I would also point out that they're trying very hard to keep Kyler Murray happy.

Yes. Seems like he and Hollywood Brown might be buds and maybe he wanted Hollywood around. They played together in college, I believe, right? Yeah. There's a connection there. So like, could there, could Deandre Hopkins, Kyler Murray, happiness, all of that factor into this kind of weird trade they made. Um,

I have to imagine that having, you're not having Hopkins. There was a big proponent, a big reason why I have to imagine that Kyler Murray being upset with the Cardinals was a reason why as well. But you know, the, the,

the teams that win in this league don't make emotional decisions, right? They make practical decisions. They make decisions, what's going to help their team be better? And because the Cardinals made a very emotional decision here and it doesn't make their team any better,

in my opinion. So it's just, it was a bad trade for them. It does not make sense. And then you have to, you know, pay him. You traded first round pick for him, basically, right? Like, you know, you're going to trade, you're going to give him a long-term contract. It does not make sense. And then you have to pay him. You traded first round pick for him basically, right? Like you're going to give him a long-term contract. He hasn't really proven that yet. So to me, it's just not good for team building the way they went about it.

Yeah. All right. I want to shift gears to a confusing topic that is dominating Twitter as we record and has been for days. I imagine will be for years. NIL deals are drunk. And everyone on Twitter talking about NIL deals, they're even drunker. It is a very wild time out there.

Luckily, you are probably the smartest person I know on these topics. So let me just put out there, as a USC fan, I have enjoyed these rumors, these reports that Pitt's top guy is coming to USC and the Boosters got him a home and $3 million. And these NIL deals are just basically paying great players to come to SoCal. But I feel a little icky about it because this probably wasn't the intent when these rules changed. Overall, everyone's take that I like seems to be get your money while you can young guys. And I agree with that, but I'm curious where you are after the last week of headlines.

All right. So there's many things to discuss here. And yes, this is my day job. I work for, I do Pac-12 radio. We talk about name and likeness and transfer as much as possible. I want to start this out by saying good for the players. Get every single cent you can. It's the only industry that I can think of where you're being restricted

from marketing yourself in any form or fashion they'll be able to do that now so there's a couple things that play here there is name image and likeness which was allowed in july it was get name image likeness you're allowed to advertise and market yourself so if gabe if you own a car dealership in los angeles i play for usc you can give me X amount of money, a car, whatever it is, just like you can for any other person, and I promote your brand. That's a traditional advertising marketing platform. We all know what that is.

And we're seeing that happen, by the way, a lot on the Olympic sports side, right? You have big social media following. You're an Olympian. Now you're able to get a lot of money that you couldn't have before, stay in school, compete in your sport. What we're seeing now, and I knew this was going to happen. I called this. I know you don't have to listen to my show, but if you'd like to,

I called this in July when this happened, that we're going to be openly paying for players. So the difference between NIL and pay for play. Pay for play is not supposed to happen, even though we knew it was going to happen and there's a way around it. It's called a collective. So what teams are, what programs are doing and what boosters are doing more importantly, they're forming together these collectives.

So Oregon has one called Division Street. All right. And they're putting money in Division Street and then Division Street is paying the players as a marketing deal. Okay? It's pay for play. Call it what it is. Pay for play.

There's already stories out about Tennessee buying a quarterback from Southern California, a five-star, for $8 million. Okay? The rumors about Jordan Addison, though, I don't think he's getting $3 million. USC claims they don't have an NIA collective. I find that hard to believe, but that's a lot of money. I don't think he's getting $3 million. USC claims they don't have an NIA collective. I find that hard to believe, but that's a lot of money. I don't think he's getting $3 million.

The reason why people are upset in this specific instance, so Jordan Aniston is the Bolitnikoff winner. He's the winner for the top wide receiver in the country last season, even in a year with all these guys drafted. He was the best one. He had 700 yards. He won the award. He had 700 yards.

He won the award. They're upset because he basically had talked to USC or any other school before transferring. So you're not supposed to talk to another school or anyone else before transferring. It's tampering, right? But Gabe, you know how this works, right? If I want to talk to you without tampering, I talk to Hank. Hank talks to Nick. Nick talks to Matt. And Matt talks to you. And then I'm not tampering. I'm not talking to you. Right. And guess what guys,

this has always happened in college sports. There's always been tampering. There's always been money behind the scenes. It just went from a peep, right? Rumors here and there. Oh, Cam Newton got some money. So-and-so got some money. Oh, I heard of a briefcase in someone's hotel room. To like super loud in your face. We're paying X amount of money for this player. Mr. Ruiz, who I don't know his first name. He's the billionaire for the Miami Hurricanes who's doing their collective. He just tweets out like LifeWall, his company.

We are paying $800,000 to a basketball player to transfer from Kansas State. Just tweet it out like it's out in the open now where it never used to be this way it's very loud and the numbers are big and i will caution you two things on this okay people say it's going to ruin college sports probably not the school's going to be good are going to be good all right like they're still going to be good and maybe guess what maybe usc and Oregon are really good, and the West Coast has a presence in college football. How nice would that be? Right? That'd be great for college football. Or maybe, you know, another school up north, besides Michigan and Ohio State, is able to

get a bunch of players to, you know, to their program. Texas, look, as much as we make fun of Texas, man, no one drafted NFL draft. They're good for the sport. It's good if Texas is good. It's good if Miami—I feel like Colin Coward now because he's saying the same good for the sport. It's good that Texas is good. It's good if Miami is good, right? It's good to see the wealth spread apart. But again, as we're talking right now, guess who the favorite is to win the championship this year? Alabama, all right?

Alabama's still a favorite. Okay, here's the last thing on this. Again, this started in July, okay? And there were some states that were ready to go. They had laws in place to allow players to earn money. It's unlimited, of course, right? There are other places they did not have. There were schools that had these collectives sort of ready, wink, wink, already ready to go.

And they hit the ground running. They're able to pay guys. But it's not been a year yet, Gabe. It hasn't been one year yet. The market will settle itself out if you're paying x amount of money eight million dollars three million dollars for players and they are not winning you championships guess what the next guy's not getting eight million dollars either okay it's getting six and a half million it's gonna find like we have to

kind of wait a full recruiting cycle to see where this ends up being. But again, guys, it's not our money. The sport already had all this happening. It's already happening. And there's no going back. The NCAA had a chance to enact rules to curtail the transfer portal length, to curtail, I guess, put a cap on the money, which is hard to do because you don't have a union, whatever.

They were sued 15 years ago by Ed O'Bannon over this topic, over name engine like this. They had 15 years to figure out what to do. And they buried their head in the sand. They thought the Supreme Court was going to help them out. Gabe, they lost 9-0 in the Supreme Court. You know how hard it is to win or lose anything in the Supreme Court? 9-0. Obviously, the Supreme Court's in a lot of news right now.

Like 9-0, man. Never, never Supreme Court, 9-0. Obviously, the Supreme Court's in a lot of news right now. Like 9-0, man. Never, never. They lost 9-0, all right? And they had no plan in place. And so the programs with deep pockets are taking advantage of it right now. And there's no way to stop it now. It just stops because the players they are paying don't pan out. And they're just going to stop paying as much.

Because look, as much as these guys have money to throw around, they're not billionaires for losing a lot of money, right? They want to make money and they're not in the business of paying people to lose, right? So like you're going to have to win if you're getting the money. And I think that in a couple of years, we'll see if that's still happening. Okay.

So let's try to define a little bit more than what the billionaires and millionaires might think they're paying for if there are no clear deliverables if if these collectives exist and nobody can really say well i paid the guy this much and then he showed up to this many events and he signed this many things and they have a market value of x so therefore the money makes sense here yeah if it's not really that, because right now it isn't, are they paying for access? Is this just a vanity play?

No, they're paying for wins. Right, but billionaires don't care about that kind of stuff. What are they really getting in the long term? Phil Knight wants to win in Oregon. Okay, but he's wealthy beyond wealthy. Look, dude, you're not paying this player $8 million to go to Tennessee to not win

games for you. I got it, but this isn't just fantasy football. No, it is. It 100% is. So you're saying, you really believe, I don't know enough to argue with you on this. You really think there are a certain class of people who are so phenomenally wealthy that they're literally just willing to pay a premium to see their team win over the other guys and that they're getting they're getting nothing of real

valuable value in return and they just like winning yes all right so then what explains how these some of these collectives are starting to think about being sort of more fan sourced right so now i'm almost like pay a subscription right so you're being a fan right so no well here's the deal so if you want to participate in this you want usc to buy a player you can donate a thousand dollars to collective and use that to buy a player for you look so there is a marketing part of this that is also to your point about like why are they paying these players is it vanity is it marketing look there is a marketing part of this that is also, to your point about like, why are they paying these players? Is it vanity?

Is it marketing? Look, there is a marketing part of this. The collective, supposedly, these are details, obviously, that we've been rumored and talked about. Is it like, they basically have taken all his NIL rights away from him. They have an exclusive. So if they want, if another company wants to use him in some sort of capacity, so I guess the idea is you bring in more than $80 million of revenue from him marketing your company, which seems unlikely to happen.

That's why I go back to like, you're just paying for wins. You're hoping that Tennessee's return to glory with a five-star. Or could I compare this? I know I'm speaking about young guys human beings here but i'm going to talk about them as though they are just tech startups is it possible that it's people are looking at this like vcs do with every new app idea that ever existed and they sprinkle a bunch of money and they seed a bunch of what seem like pretty good ideas, knowing that most of them will not cash. But a few, a few are going to be really, really successful.

And if you get in early, you keep a seat. You stay close. You make tons of money in the future. Is that part of it? I don't know. I could see it. But I guess the payoff is the championship. Like there's no part of financial payoff. I could see it, but I guess the payoff is the championship.

Like there's no part of financial payoff. But if I'm some marketing company representing an insurance company and I get some kid a million dollars to represent my insurance company at 19 years old, when he's 22 and making $50 million a year, the million doesn't mean as much. But I'm still in his plans. I still have a seat at the table. Yeah, I guess. But unless you have a contractual seat at the table, I'm not sure

why that matters very much. Okay. Well, I just tend to think you said it well. Billionaires didn't become billionaires by losing money. They don't do a lot of things. This isn't like putting your name on a museum. I mean, or maybe you're saying it is like I just don't think you do a lot of things that you're just giving away your money because you get a little joy on a Saturday. I feel like there has to be financial upside. We're not yet seeing.

So so predict the future for me. You've said it's sort of like we're only barely a year into this. Where is this in another few years after we've seen the wrinkles and can start to iron them out, hopefully with players interests leading the conversation. I think it's this, it's just less of it, less money. Okay. Um, so you think the market will mostly correct this? This isn't, yeah, I just, and again, I i just i really have a hard time believing that this is gonna this is ultimately gonna change the power structure of college football i just i just don't buy that you mean the power will still be with with the same universities with no with the same teams that are good or have been good well okay i mean the argument here would be you would have you would tell me for the last few

years that i've known you that usc isn't very good and aren't very relevant well they've certainly been winning this offseason and look like they'll be pretty good on the field and certainly going to be relevant but that's because of lincoln riley not nil well nil and transfer portal together well transfer portal for sure but that was the thing that I, this is not, USC is not the example for this because they're not paying millions of dollars for players. All right, well, wait, wait, wait. So now we're getting a little bit

wrapped around the axle here, but help me understand this a little bit, right? So there are examples of big name players who are committed to one big school and then all of a sudden because- USC had like the fourth ring class like three years ago, because... USC had the fourth-ranked class like three years ago. But they've had recruits. They just couldn't coach them up.

The difference is you have a coach that can coach these guys now. Clay Helton had like three straight years of top-ten classes. The issue's never been recruiting. It's been coaching. And their coaching is different now. The players... JT Daniels was a five-star quarterback three years ago.

He enrolled early. He was like the savior of USC. Okay. So let's say USC is a strange example because they obviously have a legacy of success and always were able to get upgrades. It would be like Arkansas being like, we're going to, we're going to, okay. How about this? The owner of FedEx, right?

FedEx is in Memphis. Okay. Let's just say he decides I'm buying players to Memphis that's the that would be the change right like just like a guy's like I want them all to come to Memphis and just SMU's him right Pony Express we're paying them all like USC was good 20 years ago if they become good again that doesn't mean my opinion the power structure college football has changed very much it would be someone out of the blue that becomes good that becomes a power in college football and you think that that someone

out of the blue isn't gonna happen we live in a world where billionaires just buy the things they like so you don't think that some billionaire could just buy the buy memphis i i don't by the way i just the hand-wringing over the must thing, like, Twitter sucks anyways. It's going to still suck. It's not going to change. It's going to suck. And they might, he might make it worse by charging for stuff. But, like, it's still the same shitty place it always is.

It's not going to change anything when he's in charge. Yeah. For another show, and maybe not even with microphones in front of us. But I actually think that, I don't take musk as seriously as a lot of people do but i actually think that the big change will have to do with subscriptions that oh yeah paying to use the service and a whole new revenue stream that's not advertised well it may but that's that's where people are like how's he ever going to make money on this like well that's the only way not the way he's doing it currently no he's going to charge for stuff or he mentioned charging like third parties to implant like to embed to me embed

tweets in their articles and stuff so all right enough enough uh that let's get to over-unders let's do our over-under after a quick break we'll be right back we'll move the line all right jeff it's time to move the line, our little over-under game. Here we go. Bryce Young, draft position next year, a full year from now, over-under 1.5. Is he the first pick or not? I don't think so. I think it will be C.J. Stroud. You know, Bryce Young, we'll have this conversation. It'll be a long conversation.

He's barely six feet tall and he's 180 pounds. It's going to be a discussion we're going to have to hear for four or five months. Between the big-arm kid, C., CJ Stroud, or taking Bryce Young. I think the teams will lean toward the bigger, stronger player. All right, so I watched CJ Stroud as much as most people who aren't Ohio State fans. And I was never impressed. I'll be totally honest with you. I never was.

And then I watched three guys go to the draft, all of whom look like world beaters who can catch anything and can get open against anyone. And I thought, well, how important is the quarterback if these guys are just always two steps open and catch everything that goes up in the air? I'm not bought on C.J. Stroud.

I'm just not. Well, the same thing you said about Bryce Young in Alabama. I mean, all those guys get drafted too. I'm not, and I'm not bought on him yet. I would just not. Well, the same thing you said about Bryce Young in Alabama. I mean, all those guys get drafted too. I'm not – and I'm not bought on him yet. I would just say over. Over. Okay. What are the odds that the team with the number one pick needs a quarterback? Like I guess the Texans are the early choice.

Probably the Texans, yeah. All right. Do we think they're going to like quote unquote tank again? No, they're going to try to play Davis Mills. He might not be any good. Yeah. Okay. Debo Samuel. I can't believe

we made it this far into the show without mentioning Debo. So, we're entering the whole saga of will he, won't he stay. You choose to believe whoever you want about his future with the Niners. So, I want to know over under 1.5 more seasons

we spend talking about Debo Samuel's happiness in San Francisco oh geez um probably how can we have like a moratorium on this too like I know we talked about no Carson Wenstock we have no I'm just I just these topics man I I do not care I I think he will just suck up a player this year and they'll give him a deal at some point during the season. Okay. I'll buy that. I actually think he'll be happy there when he gets paid a little bit more money and they're going to be one of the best teams in the NFC. Everyone makes is happier when they get paid for the services more.

Yeah. I I'm with you. I'm, I'm not as annoyed by this story, but I don't think it will be a story as soon as the guy's paid, whatever he thinks he's worth. And he probably will. All right.

We mentioned it earlier that this draft got me back. So I want to know, predict how many weeks I stay a Jets fan over under 7.5 weeks. The schedule, I think is out tomorrow, right? Or the next couple of days. Yeah.

The schedule would dictate this answer, but I'm going to say, well, you're not in it for like the wins, right? You're in it for the future. And so I would say you'll stay a Jets fan longer than that. You'll keep yourself alive like we have.

Like look what we see. The future is bright, everyone. Zach Wilson is getting better each week. You're going to find like one or two throws each week where he's better. I'm going to say over the seven and a half weeks. Over seven and a half. I don't think I've made it caring about the Jets into week eight since Ryan Fitzpatrick was the quarterback. Okay.

So I would take the under on this. We'll find out. But I'm going to try to get back into the Jets. I'm going to try. All right. Another couple teams we talked about earlier. Jeff, your confidence that Oregon beats USC in the Pac-12 title game over under 5% chance. You can't possibly think it's going to happen.

Well, it's not going to happen because USC won't win the South. Ah, there it is. Okay. Good job answering that question. It doesn't matter. Oregon is going to be the heavy favorite to win the North. It's going to be Utah and Oregon again for the third time in a row, I think. Yeah, Utah did look pretty good at the end of last year.

It was fun to watch those last two games. USC has to go to utah too which is not gonna be fun yeah usc's regular season schedule did not look very tough at my glance no they should win nine games yeah so you really do think utah even after losing a few players they didn't lose they didn't lose the quarterbacks back tight ends back running back quarterback is the guy he looks like Adam Driver, right? This big old guy. Yeah, young defense that got better.

They have a cornerback. They'll be a first-round draft pick. They're going to be – they have to replace their linebackers. They lost both their linebackers. Yeah, that's what I meant. Their linebackers were first-round guys. They're going to be good. Okay.

Well, I like you staying on brand and not letting me have any hopefulness with usc i feel a little bit better about it than you do okay here's a fun one winning time on the ranker of best sports tv shows ever is it over under 3.5 in the top five i'm not willing to let it drop out of the top five it's not even It's not even in a full season yet. I don't care. I'm already there. It's good. It's incredible.

It's great. So we have East Mountain down, Ted Lassner, Friday Night Lights, The League. Those are ones I listed. Feel free to add your own. It's better than The League, I think. Okay. I mean, I love The League. I know.

These are tough. So you said it's better. It has to be in the top five. No, over under. I'm saying it's in the top five. You can order it how you want. My question is, is it top three? So which one of these?

Okay. Winning time, top three. I would say probably not top three. Really? Because Ted Lasso, Friday Night Live. Eastbound and Down is hardly a sports TV show. I mean, it is, I guess, but it seems like winning time. It's like a Jerry Buzz show.

Eastbound and Down was filmed in Myrtle too during bike week. Oh God, it's so funny. I played, when I coached high school baseball at Fort Mill in South Carolina, we went and played tournaments in Myrtle every year in that stadium that he played down in Myrtle. And my wife went to bike week when she was younger, a bunch.

It's just so funny, dude. Oh man. Um, I guess it is a baseball is a baseball show. Um, I will say, um,

it's not better. He's mounted down. Is it? No, I don't think I'm willing to go there. I think, I think it's fourth or fifth because it just hasn't had it in five seasons.

Maybe it's better, but I find myself not not as excited about like the non jerry bus storylines in this show everything to do with jerry is captivating because like like i get like and this is and i look at it like it's all true like spencer hayward was was was thrown off the team like that that's, that happened. It was the different drug than they portrayed in the show. I think though, but like, it's just,

I want basketball and Jerry bus. Like it's just good, man. It's a good show. Oh, so I'm going to say it's better than Friday night lights, which is blasphemous for some people. I loved the league.

I don't know if I can put it ahead of the league. I it's borderline better than Ted Lasso for me. And I love that. That's too much. That's you're going than Ted Lasso for me, and I loved Ted Lasso. No, that's too much. You're going too far now, I think. It's not even a season yet. The only show on here that is 100% definitively better is Eastbound and Down.

Dude, the first time I watched Kenny Powers come on the field in Mexico, I was in tears. It's so funny when he does the fireworks and he does the socket symbol and wearing the American flag legit literally just rolling down my face tears it's so funny

oh my god um Eastbound Down's good they're also different genres has anyone ever done had more success in more different things without ever changing the character even a little bit than Danny McBride? Not one role of his has ever been even a little bit different. Like Righteous Gemstone is the exact same thing.

It's the same thing. Foot Fist Way was like his breakout. Same thing in the Apatow movies. He's been – same thing. He's just that guy. That's who he is. And like This is the End, yeah, the same. He was like the jerk offow movies he's been at same thing he's just that guy that's who he is like in like this is the end yeah the same he was like the jerk off they're like yeah pissed everyone off um um that whole scene and this is the end with the magazine oh i can't it's

incredible kids show we can't mention that it's so it's so good um even meredith laughed at that scene it was on like a couple months ago I put it on again um I let me see a couple more seasons of winning time I want to see a little bit I'm like I don't know if there can be what where are they gonna go next like well they're gonna probably do 1981 next oh you think they're gonna kind of because now see here's my here's my prediction I hope people are not getting spoiled here it's real life it's gonna end it's gonna end with the championship well I think it – but no. But the way the whole season opened wasn't – remember it was in a flash forward to Magic's HIV diagnosis.

That's how it opened. So maybe by season five it gets there. I don't think it gets there by season two. Dude, that's 91. No, I realize that's a long way off. So you think they're going to really milk this? I don't, okay. I thought it was like a one and done.

Or maybe like the next season is going to be like 81 to 84 and they don't win against like Larry Bird and just like miserable. And then they finally win. I think they break through and is it 84, 85? They break through for the first time. Maybe it's like that's what they do. And then it's like they break it up like that.

But they already have a season two, right? I didn't know that. I'm glad to hear like that but they already have a season two right i i didn't know that i'm glad to hear that they do i feel like i don't and i didn't read jeff perlman's book so i don't actually know how much material is in the book oh they want to get an 82 and then they and then i think they lost a couple to wait to the celtics in a row and then 85 was that they finally beat the Celtics. Lakers were like 0-9 against the Celtics. So yeah, they beat Philly in the finals in 82. So, but yeah, maybe that's what it is. I don't know. All right.

Well, we'll have to see. I mean, they've definitely built characters. Pat Riley becomes the head coach soon in 82. We know the Riley story. A year is going to start at some point. We know Dr. J is a character they've already developed. I'm assuming if they make it into the mid-80s, we're going to meet to start at some point. We know Dr. J is a character they've already developed. I'm assuming if they make it into the mid-80s, we're going to meet Michael Jordan at some point

and his whole relationship with all these guys is interesting. Do you hear a giant drill going on my mic right now? I do. Norm Nixon's son, right? That's playing the role, I think. Yeah, that's a good show, man. It's a very good show. Jeff, while there's work

being done clearly around my little studio here i'll ask you this because it's the sound you would hear if you had to do it with a real lug nuts the chance jesus that's really annoying the chances jeff can change his own tire over under 75 i can yes i've done it, yes. I've done it before. Yeah, I've done it twice before by myself. Do you know who cannot do it by himself? Probably you. No, I can do it. I've done it a few times. Oh, Hank for sure.

Hank cannot. Yeah, there's no way. Hank cannot change his entire. The hardest part is jacking the car up. That's like finding the place to jack it up. Other stuff is not that hard. Well, I mean, you're not, you don't have to convince me.

I can do it. You know, I know what it's like to take a donut out of the trunk. I've actually changed my tire. This is now 2011 in front of a sports, I was with a sports media personality turned political commentator.

And my car broke down in front of his house. We were going, we were together for a, we went to a college trip to go to Alabama. I think I know who you're talking about. I had to change the tire in front of his house. Okay. Yeah. Well. It was embarrassing.

I was like, my rental car, just like, I was like, all right, I guess I'll do it myself. I called the rental car company. They're like, yeah, we're not helping you. I was like, all right, I guess I'll do it myself. I called the rental car company. They're like, yeah, we're not helping you. I was like, all right, I'll do it myself, I guess. Well, our producer, Hank, might need to get coached up by you and I one day. He's going to enter the real world soon, and he can't do his own tires. But I can't do my truck by myself. That I have to take in.

I don't think Hank's driving around in a truck. No, probably not. Yeah. All right. That's our draft edition and whatever else we covered today. Jeff, nice hanging with you. Yeah, as usual, it was always fun. Powered by the Varsity Podcast Network.

We'll be back next week as we transition to more of preview, right? Preview for the season. Before we know it, it'll be here. It's always NFL, guys. Always NFL to talk about. And college has given us life with name and likeness. So please rate, review, subscribe. We'll be here. It's always NFL, guys. Always NFL to talk about. And college has given us life with name and likeness. So please rate, review, subscribe. We'll be back next week.

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