Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - NFL Five Best Bets Week 5

Episode Date: October 6, 2023

it's friday october 6th i'm jeff schwartz is just for to smart and you were live on twitter youtube on your favorite podcast platform of choice please give us a rating subscribe tell your friends and family we love getting as many people as possible to listen to the friday edition of our podcast we cover gambling we cover We cover everything to do with the National Football League on Sunday and on Monday of this week. We're brought to you by the Vaulted app, the home of my season-long game, giving out $14,000 of cash prizes

and my pools with $5,000 allocated to my final pool of the season, which will be the day of the big game that's Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D. It's a place you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prizes, and improve your smarter than your friends and myself by using the Vaulted Challenge feature. VLTED, it's a place you can store your sports predictions. Participate and catch prize pools with any entry fees and prove you're smarter than your friends and myself by using the Vaulted Challenge feature.

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Again, at the end of the show we'll talk about the uh the vaulted uh pool uh predictions we like for this week i actually finished third place last week matt did you know that i put i've been really bad i finished yeah i finished very good i don't know if i'm allowed it was a good week for us it was a great week for us on the gambling front guys we went 4-0 incos. So the joke we had last week was, you know, I picked the Broncos to cover. It was three points at the time of recording. I went off at three and a half, I think, the time of recording when we recorded this podcast late Thursday night last week instead of Friday.

And I had the Broncos minus three. They were down 28-7, and they came all the way back to win by three. So we pushed. So from now on on our record will indicate that we are now 11-7-1 and broncos so we we are really 11 11-7-2 matt we're doing well it's the best we've ever started any given year it's very good uh the broncos we had probably the best text exchange we've ever had um regarding the broncos where you immediately like two minutes into the game we're doing the like i can't believe we did

this i have so many regrets and then you know the the bears folded they didn't do that with my commanders last night but the the russell wilson led broncos came all the way back to get us the most dissatisfying push of all time of course like i would have rather lost like because then i could have at least yeah we could have learned instead we didn't learn we didn't succeed we nothing happened we just we might as well have just not picked that game it was incredible did your commanders know they had they were supposed to play a game last night were they aware of that fact or they just showed up to a practice event or something i think it's i it's one of i mean in a litany of embarrassing moments for this team it's less embarrassing than a lot of them but i just want to say like how do you like how do

these coaches have a job today like it just it's so obvious that it's a leadership problem right like no one held anyone accountable they have a young quarterback they have this defense of like these highly paid guys who don't perform and this offense is just kind of up and down and like it just feels to me that there's nobody in that entire building who commands any respect from anyone. And I think Ron Rivera, we had a good text last night. It's like he's made the playoffs, I think, three times with a losing record or a 500 record or something like that.

I think it's happened. I think the text was it's only three teams have made the playoffs with a losing record in the last so, so many years and Rivera's coach, two of them. Yeah. And it's, you know, he's had like a really unusual career and you know,

I think I, whatever, we don't need to talk about the commanders much, but I just, I found it to be a stunning lack of accountability that they don't show up for a game like that. Well, let's get the field goal down,

down 16 there uh that which made their chances uh less likely after not going for two last week where they could have just gone for two and one like we're lost and it would have been fine it's crazy uh i i don't get it but nonetheless we don't talk about the commanders anymore let's talk about the first game of the week is the game in london i will say one thing too uh last week our vaulted pool closed, right, the London game, right? And I emailed them. I was like, can we keep it open? Because I feel like a lot of us kind of do our pool maybe later in the week.

We change our prediction. So we're not going to include the London game in the pool this week. So we will have all the way up until that 1 p.m. Eastern kickoff time to adjust your pool predictions and get more people involved in the vaulted app. So I'm glad we made that change. They did a good job with the feedback there. but let's get to the first game here i don't like london games typically to wager on map but i feel like i do have an idea this one yeah interesting so it's buffalo's favorite by five and a half obviously the jags have been in london since last week i ended up on ended up on Sunday sprinkling a little bit on Jacksonville last week,

mostly as an Atlanta fade. That looked good. But, yeah, I'm curious if you have a side here. I feel like this is a lot of points for a Jaguars team that's not bad. They just haven't sort of clicked on offense quite yet. They're close, Matt. They're close. They're just not 100% there on offense quite yet. Like, they're close, Matt. They're close. They're just not 100% there on offense.

And you get Buffalo off this huge win. They've scored a ton of points the last three weeks. They're going to London. I don't buy the idea that you should take Jacksonville because they're already in London. Like, whatever. The flight from Buffalo to London is not enough to where I feel like there's not big of a difference in this game.

If it was the Niners flying out there, maybe I'd feel differently. But Jacksonville is a quality team. They're probably going to win their division. I think we agree on that. They're a playoff team from last year. And if it clicks in this game, they're going to keep it close. We have not seen in a couple weeks the YOLO game from Josh Allen. Maybe it happens this week.

Overseas, national TV game, which was last weekend, but it wasn't a standalone game, right? It does feel like there's a little bit of that going to come back this weekend. It's just a good feeling of mine. There's no actual analysis here for that, why that would happen. All the money's on Buffalo. Everyone loves Buffalo this week. I'm okay with Jacksonville. Interesting. Yeah yeah this feels like one of those vegas lines where they're trying to tell you something like buffalo's won three games they won two games by 28 and they beat my commanders by 34 like this is a definitely raiders by this raiders by 28 too right 28 yeah 28 34 and 28 like this should be a like by high spot for buffalo but they're only favored by

five and a half over a jacksonville team that hasn't looked good yet this entire season so i do feel like this is a little bit of a hey heads up kind of game um that jacksonville would probably be the right side this is also like if vegas vegas puts this line at five and a half then this is like the the teaser game that kills everyone, right? This could be that game, but Jacksonville just hasn't shown it yet. I would consider it, but the number is five and a half. I don't know. It's a tough one, but I'm fine with it as a light maybe. Yeah, I'll go with that.

The team that flew back from Londonondon last week the falcons uh they're hosting the texans uh and you either have an opinion on this game or we're not discussing it because it's kind of a gross one but the text the texans or no the falcons are favored by one and a half at home now all the bets and money are on cj stroud and the texans i mean the texans are better right like they're playing better quarterback i think they're getting healthier in their offensive line they're playing better football they're a better football team the question is is going on the road make that much of a difference in atlanta i mean to me i'm hey texans plus two would be awesome i know everyone else is on it as well,

but the smart people are on this as well, which is important, right? Like Houston's playing good football, Matt. Like they're playing well. And so I know it's probably a trendy dog and whatnot. I hate betting on Falcons games because it's just, you never never win it's just the worst thing of all time to do but i think i'm okay with taking the texans here they're just better yeah i think

i think i am too there's two two main reasons the first is like the texans offense isn't just like good for having a rookie quarterback it's like legitimately good they haven't gotten a ton out of pierce yet and they still are like in the top 10 and like all of the metrics that the smart people say matter um but the other part of this that's interesting is this the these the falcons coming back from london this has happened only a few times where the team has has not taken their buy and in every situation the team that's coming back from london has either trailed or been tied in the fourth quarter um so it's it seems like if it if houston were to get out to a good start yeah which they probably will how does atlanta come back they can't throw like i i just

i feel like this could be like the last ritter game. So I, you know, it's possible that, that CJ Stroud just like lays an egg he's going to at some point, but I don't mind this. I think the better team is, is catching points. Interesting. So, you know, the Texans are 11th in DVOA. They're fifth in special teams. It means they're just well-coached.

Falcons are 27, 27 in, in, in, in DVOA, they're fifth in special teams which means they're just well coached um yeah found for 27 27 in uh in uh in in dva which um it's a big difference man it's a big difference yeah it really is by the way it's it's time for them to just trade kyle pitts like it's just time they they need to trade him to another team like this week like what are they doing they're just wasting this offensive talent on these and it could be the quarterback and like maybe heineke comes in and just like forces it like he did with mclaren to pitts and london but like they gotta just like what the hell are they doing i just this team this this like arthur smith thing i think might just not work well buddy i mean they're they're playing a quarterback who is not good.

Like they've made their team around a quarterback who's not good. What do you expect? I know I'm talking to anyone. Like that's an important part of this. They're playing a team that is just not – they're playing a quarterback who's just not good. It's that simple in the NFL. I feel like a lot of times.

So let's go Houston plus two. I think that we're in the strong yes here. Yeah, I think, yeah. I'm good putting it on the list for now. All right. Panthers, your Panthers at the Detroit Lions. This is my survivor pick, the Detroit Lions. Yep, same here.

Can't take the Panthers here until we see a little bit more out of them the lines are also my survivor pick so we're on the same boat there i have nothing to say here the panthers the panthers aren't very good this game could get super ugly but i don't want to be anywhere with my money anywhere near this game yeah same uh all right good pass go go lions keep us going in survivor uh next on the list here the titans uh road favorites last i saw at the colts wow it's up to two and a half oh my goodness uh the super contest i think had this at one a day ago um wow interesting where are you here Where are you here?

I'm not on Tennessee. Vrabel is a favorite on the road. Hard pass on that one, right? They played two road games this year. You know they get to score a touchdown on the road this season? They lost 16-15 in week one and 27-3. I like the Colts getting two and a half points here, right? Like at home. The Titans, are they good?

I mean, their DVOA is 22. Defensively, they're 12, which we know they're good on defense. They're 26th on offense. The Colts are pretty much an average team, 19, 18, 17. Oh, man. I mean, mean vrabel road favorite i i'm glad we're taking a divisional home dog here and just living with it i i'm out on the colts uh in this spot so my my thinking first of all this is the team tannahill's done the best against he's five-0 in his last five against the Colts. The Colts, I think, have been outgained in every single game they've played.

The strength of the Titans is their run defense. I don't think that – I liked Tennessee as basically even or laying a point or so. I just don't buy this Colts team. I think they're – and clearly Vegas has agreed. This line opened with the Colts as a one-and-a-half point favorite. So I think it's a stay away with the two-and-a-half. That's crazy that it's moved that much. But I'm definitely not on the Colts.

All right, we can skip it. It's no big deal. I'll be fine not watching this game. I talked to you about the Titans-Colts. Wow. The process really is worth spared you after we had to keep after you had to watch that whole broncos bears game last week i'm i'm doing you a favor thank you yes you're doing the lord's work i appreciate it yeah you're you're certainly welcome uh another game that we might not watch the dolphins hosting another one

of your former teams the giants dolphins the Dolphins are laying 12 and a half and according to the Action Network are still getting 96 percent of the money and 92 percent of the bets that is astonishing uh can I be honest I still don't hate the Dolphins in this I don't either I don't either I don't either man I don't either like what. I don't either. Like, what? So, if the Dolphins were off a win in Buffalo, the number might be 13 or 14, I think, Matt. But they lost. They kind of got embarrassed. Now they're playing a Giants team.

Like, what do the Giants bring to the table? I believe it's Friday right now. Andrew Thomas is still not playing, I don't think. So, what are they going to? they're out their center probably as well. How are they keeping this game close? Not sure. Not sure how they're going to do it. It's also one of these 90-degree Sundays in October in Miami.

these 90 degree Sundays in October in Miami, you know, there's all these stats about you don't take a team off of a huge primetime. You always want to take the team off of a huge primetime loss. Miami also was embarrassed, right? Like you said, this is the team, Martindale like blitzes the most. Who's the best quarterback against the blitz besides mahomes it's tua it's like get the ball out fast just let these guys cook um yeah the super contest line of 11 i

actually took it uh the 12 and a half is is a lot um if if but i still don't feel like i don't feel like it's crazy and i feel like we this you know well there's there's a basically just table i'll keep it close there's an 11 and a half of fandu right now rather than 12. okay so i'm fine with i mean put 11 11 i'm fine thinking about it yeah god the giants are just this is a very public play i get it but like one i know literally everybody everybody's on the same side here that's scary i know i know um all right i'm put it let's uh let's put it down in the uh in the in the maybes for now um i just don't know the giants keep it close i i just have no idea how they do it yeah barkley i think practice this week it looks like he might go but like questionable questionable yeah i mean what is mean, what does, I mean, does that help?

I guess it keeps them on their offense on the field a little longer. Yeah. I still think Miami might, you know, might be the top three team in the league and we might be on a buy low with them. All right. The, this is an ugly one o'clock slate, isn't it? The next one is saints at the Patriots. This, you can find a point on either side here. Bets are about split. Same with the money.

I think we're going to have to do it. I know. Really? Well, I think we're on the same side here, right? What side are you on? New England. You tell. Go ahead.

Make the case i'm in the cases that are you gonna lose to the the fucking injured derrick cars who can't do anything on offense like are we really like it's just i guess it's just if they lose this game that's the end of it right like this is the end of it's the end of the patriots as we know them right matt like this is it if they lose this game to the saints with beat-up Derek Carr at home, that's it. Write them off. They're done.

Their season's done. Everyone's clearing house. Like, we're done here, right? This is what this game is for New England. Now, Judon's not playing. Gonzalez is not playing. Like, those are problems for their defense. I get that.

But this is it. Like, this is it. This is it. If they don't win this game, that's it. They're done as any team we talk about the rest of the season. And Matt Jones is gone. Like, it ends right here in this game. They keep themselves alive at least a little bit,

which I don't think they're very good. We were wrong about New England, I think, this year, Matt. It's just done. Like, this is it. If they don't win this game, that's it. We're wrapping it up. Season is done. And I just don't want to believe that New England, with that it. If they don't win this game, that's it. We're wrapping it up. Season is done. And I just don't want to believe that New England,

with that coaching staff, with the players on the team, is just going to wrap it up after this weekend. I completely agree. And I think that's all the case you need to make. I mean, look, the Saints, they had that good, I guess, week one win against the Titans. I think we were on the wrong side of that. They sneak out that win against the Panthers.

No, no, we had Tennessee plus the point. Oh, yeah, plus three. Oh, no, we covered that. We might have not taken that one. That might have been one we did not do, but we liked. It doesn't matter. Yeah, so the next couple weeks, they sneak by the Panthers. They blow a big lead to the packers

and they get blown out by the saints like or i'm sorry the bucks this is a dead team too and derrick car you mentioned not not looking like himself not able to throw down the field camara getting all those dump offs last week like they are not right either and like who do you who do you think's gonna like you think the Patriots are dead because they don't have their rookie corner? Like, that's an insane take. So I just think that the Patriots have to win this. Yep.

I think catching a point, you just have to make this bet and just cross your fingers. Absolutely. I'm fine to be in this spot to root against the Saints on Sunday. Yeah, me too. It's an ugly spot, but let's do it. Okay, what do we got?

Speaking of ugly spots, Mike Tomlin is a home dog to his rival Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are laying four and a half now. My God. Okay, so I know that Nick and Vic are playing this game, are producers of like which wagers we're going to take. They're playing their own little game. And if they didn't have Pittsburgh on the wager list this week, they're not paying attention.

Mike Tallman is 13, six and two against the spread as a home underdog in the regular season. Four of the last five of these games have been within three points. Just like what these games are, Matt, the under, by the way, has been hammered. Like the under is a spot to be in as well. We don't take totals in this week. Just take Pittsburgh.

Look, just make it simple. Can he pick it? No, can he pick it? I don't even care, Matt. It doesn't bother me. Like put in Trubisky. Who cares? Baltimore and Pittsburgh play close football games,

and you always back Mike Tomlin as a home underdog. Yeah. The best, the best in league history as an underdog. You mentioned the underdog in this series, 22, five and three the underdog has covered 11 straight and is 15, one and one since 2015 when the line is three or more, 21-3-3 in this series. This is just how these games go. It's also the windiest game of the season so far,

if the forecast holds up. So there's not going to be a whole lot of downfield passing, not that either offense is sort of built for that anyway. The way the Steelers win is they keep this game tight. They keep it on the grounds. They're coming off of a really bad loss, which is another spot where Tomlin tends to overperform. I think Baltimore, too, by the way.

Baltimore, they have a 3-1 record, but who have they beaten? The Cincinnati win is their best win. Every other game, I'm pretty sure, that's been against a backup quarterback. They haven't. They had CJ Stroud in week one uh and yeah they they lost in overtime to the goddamn colts nightmare um so yeah i'm i'm fine with i'm fine with pittsburgh here it's just one of those it's an obvious like we went as soon as this line came out i knew we were taking it i love we're

taking we're getting four and a half let's go okay. Okay. All right. Let's move it along. Nice. Going into the late window. What a game. This is the Bengals are laying three in Arizona to the feisty Cardinals. So this is a really interesting game. Okay. This lot open like six, six and a half.

It's a three now, Matt. So we can't take Arizona. The numbers, it's a bad number for Arizona if you're taking it, right? Unless you think they're going to win outright. But the same case I made for the Patriots, the same case I made for the Bengals here.

If they lose this game, season's over. I believe it's Arizona, and then it's another team next week they should beat, and then it's a bye. After the bye, it's like Bills like bills 49ers at Ravens if they don't win this game I know we're not choosing winning and losing but minus three I feel like it's within that margin of like they should win by three or more that's it Matt season is done season is over right now the thing that's bothered the Bengals obviously is offense and Joe Burrow's calf the Cardinals according to pro football focus they're ranked 25th in their pass rush.

They're not really getting to the court. They're not affecting Joe Burrow the way the other teams who have played the Bengals can affect Joe Burrow. It's back against the wall for me. I like the Bengals. You know that I have a lot of respect for the Bengals as a Chiefs fan. I've watched them play for so many years now. They're not going to go to Arizona and win this game by three or more, Matt.

I feel like this is a – gotta take the bangles here right i think i'm with you um i mean you don't you don't have to let me just no no no i'm it's funny our producer nick is i'm sure laughing at this because yesterday in our office uh gabe was asked his favorite pick the the week, and he goes, Cardinals, the Bengals are dead. And Nick texted me. He's like, so my favorite pick of the week is the Bengals. In that moment, I actually started trying it. If Gabe's on the other side, then we definitely like it.

But I honestly did think about it after that. And it's, yeah, it's like if we ever believe in Joe Burrow, this is the week, right? Like this is the right team to go against. You know, Jamar Chase had the I'm always open thing last week. It seems like every week that the receiver gets pissed off, the next week they explode. Like it just kind of feels like this is the Jamar Chase week.

So I'm fine sort of saying, you know, saying, hey, if we get burned by the Bengals here, lesson learned. But if they can't win this game, their season's over too. And the Cardinals have overperformed. I think they're getting a lot of respect here. I think it will probably end somewhere between three and six, and we'll be happy that we are on the side of the three. Does it change your mind that Ray Vaughn's in Arizona plus three?

Does it change your opinion all of the game? Ray Vaughn's also on the Texans. He's also on – he was on another one that we liked so he's uh yes it's concerning yeah it's concerning right on the other side of this chris rayvon he's like the best nfl gambler that i know he's fantastic and it's not that's not like a professional professional per se right he's not like you know putting down a million dollars a game um all right we got uh we got four more games to go i believe and i think a couple of these professional per se, right? He's not like putting down a million dollars a game. All right, we've got four more games to go, I believe.

And I think a couple of these we're going to skip, but go ahead. Yeah, so Eagles-Rams is an interesting one. The Rams, according to whatever number you get, I call them undefeated against the spread this year. They're home dogs catching four and a half. I think this is probably a stay away. This is a little bit of a fishy line to me yeah a lot of people are gonna be in the rams i think plus the points here um which i the rams there's something about i don't know how they're doing it put it like that right it's just i don't know how they're doing it, put it like that, right? It's just – I don't know how. They're 2-2.

They won against the Seahawks in week one. They beat a Colts team in overtime with a rookie quarterback. But they covered against the Niners with that late kick against McVay, right? McVay kicked the ball late. They were down 10. And they covered in Cincinnati. They played close games though too i i'm just staying away right like the eagles could just come out and be the thing about the

eagles i feel like at any moment they could just be the eagles again and we saw in the second half of that washington game they were the eagles again right matt and like when they're the eagles again they're rolling over the rams yes and I think that's a very good possibility here. The Cooper Cup being back thing is interesting. It looks like he's going to play. The fact that this number just won't move, it's been just sitting here all week. Yeah, it has.

It just feels like the Eagles are worse on the road. The Eagles are, you know, Jalen Hurts has never won in Pacific time. Some of those weird stats. But this is just to stay away there's something fishy about it and uh i don't know i just i i don't feel like i can back the rants here even though i i gotta say sean mcveigh you gotta give him credit for getting them to uh to this spot it looks like they're probably a playoff team uh i will refuse to bet the jets broncos game yeah we just we could just skip it i will not allow it but you've you've taken us down a dangerous path before i will not allow it this week uh thank god that you are already off of this um this one though i think we're gonna have a feisty conversation about the chiefs and the vikings

uh the vikings are catching three and a half at home. They are getting 61% of the money and 30% of the bets. Three and a half, four. This just moved down to three and a half, I think, right as we started the show today. So you're probably on the Chiefs now, I assume. So I'm looking here. So there's some interesting,

Action Network has some interesting numbers here. After Mahomes throws for – This is, again, this means really nothing, but it's just fun to say. I'm not making my opinion off this. After Mahomes throws for fewer than 200 yards, the Chiefs are 9-2 against the spread in the following game. Mahomes' stats by point spread. When he is 3. half or higher as a favorite

he's 32 39 and one against the spread yes which is what you had said 12 against the spread in the last 18 yeah uh shout out action network for doing for doing a job for us um yeah for sure uh ah jeez i'm not taking the vikings fuck no no we're not taking the vikings because part of the problem is cousins uh stinks after a win uh he's the second worst out of 233 quarterbacks he also stinks when the game's not played at one o'clock like he said he. I think you could just end the sentence that he stinks. I want to make sure you hear this stat. He's second worst of 233 quarterbacks in the last 20 years after a win. The worst quarterback is Jay Cutler.

That's against the spread. So we're definitely not backing Cousins here. No. I do feel like this is one of these games that's going to be – it's got to be a shootout. Two teams – I mean, theings can move the ball yeah um and you know i think the vikings blitz a ton mahomes is amazing against the blitz he's going to get the ball out quickly i think this is a travis kelsey smash spot if there's any i haven't looked if he's in the vaulted contest this week um so yeah i this is a pass but i i can't lay

three and a half with the chiefs just based on all the trends with mahomes um yeah uh fun so um here we go according to pro football reference when he plays that early slot cousins is is i played 91 games he's 56 and 34 great right afternoon slot 23 times 7 and 16 late slot 30 times 11 and 19 incredible man incredible maybe he just like needs less time to think about it or something it's it's very strange that big of a sample size. All right. Should we move to the Sunday night game? Yeah. So we're not taking the Chiefs, right? Yeah. No, I can't do it.

Sunday night game, game of the week, maybe game of the season to this point, to be honest. The Cowboys are at the Niners. The Niners are three and a half or four point favorites, depending where you look. What side are you on here? We have to talk about it even if we don't take it have you found it odd that this line hasn't moved at all this week for the most part i found it very strange yes um i initially like the niners in this game i think i text you that sunday night um that i'm i'd be i'd be okay being on the niners

in this game um i think they have a lot of advantages here where the Cowboys defensively are really good when they get to rush the passer, right? But you rush the passer when you're ahead in games. The Niners are not going to be in a position where the Cowboys are ahead in this game, right? We sort of know that. So the pass rush should be mitigated and their ability to do that.

On the flip side, on the flip side, the Cowboys' red zone offense has been atrocious. The Niners' red zone defense is great, which is an important kind of talking point as we head into this weekend. Like McCarthy just go, like his brain or his play call goes haywire

in the red zone. It's not a Zeke Elliott issue. But also, have you taken a look at who the Cowboys have played as far as quarterbacks so far this season? I'm glad you brought this up. Yep. Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson,

Josh Dobbs, and Mac Jones. It's not the Niners that played Murderer's Row, right? They played Kenny Pickett, Matt Stafford, Daniel Jones, and Josh Dobbs. But they've just played much better. Like, I know the Cowboys have allowed three points or zero points and whatnot. They're scoring a bunch on defense.

The Niners have not played a close game yet. They're just – they're a wagon, man. They scored 30 points down seven straight where it was using games they covered nine straight games at home by the way um i'm on the niners minus three and a half i am too uh i am too it feels a little bit too easy for some reason because i stared at this all week and had the same thought where it was just like what exactly is dallas better at than this team at any phase of at any phase and you know the other thing is is dallas does not tend to do well in these exact spots where they're close underdogs like this is this is not where they usually overperform it's when they're what's when they're favorites

uh they have done really well in night games uh they've i think they've covered 11 of their last 14 night games that's the most profitable of any team in the league which is kind of surprising um but yeah i just i just think like how do they slow this offense down for the niners like if this turns into a shootout the Niners have the advantage honestly I think the Niners might even have a better defense like you know I know obviously Micah Parsons is probably the best player maybe in the league but I still feel like the Niners probably are the better unit across the board um so I the the hook stinks but I don't feel like if the Niners win this is going to be close I feel like it's just going to be like a beatdown.

And yeah, I don't know. I almost feel like the Niners aren't getting enough credit for the start that they've had. And maybe people think Dallas is one of these top teams, but I think they're a clear tier below where San Francisco is. I just think we have a situation where, you know, this line, if the Sharps were on Dallas, this line would have moved already. Yeah, that's right.

And it hasn't at all. It just hasn't. Yeah. That's how I feel about the Giants, like going back to that game. Like it's like if anybody was back in one of those teams, like someone would have. And that's kind of weirdly how I feel about Jacksonville. Like there's a lot of these dogs this week where you're just sort of like,

why hasn't this line moved? Why doesn't it feel like somebody's jumped in and catching points in one of these teams? So, yeah, it feels a little bit risky to me, but I'm happy putting it in the next conversation here because it sounds like I think we have seven contenders at this point, yeah? I think we have seven contenders, yeah. Oh yeah? I think we have seven contenders, yeah. We still haven't done the Monday night game.

The Monday night game, let's quickly touch on that in case there's something here. The Packers are at the Raiders. This has sort of moved around a bunch this week. It's now the Raiders laying single points where I'm looking at least. Who's playing quarterback in this? Do we know what Jimmy Steele is yet? I do we know what jimmy steel is yet um i do not know it's it's packers um packers uh uh raiders right i mean does it matter who's playing

quarterback for the raiders i actually think that that aiden o'connell is that his name he was he was fun to watch like i thought he was pretty good um i weirdly i'm sort of interested in the raiders here but not enough to no not not better than not not better than any of these right that we have already no definitely not so why don't we just say let's let's save some time there um so i think there are seven contenders is that is that where you are jeff maybe if you've got them in front so i. So I have Jacksonville, Houston, Indy, Miami, New England, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, SF. I think that we liked –

I'm out on Indy. Okay, so out on Indy. Take Indy off. So we for sure like Pittsburgh, and we like the Bengals, right, and the Patriots. Yes, the Bengals. Okay. I'm okay with throwing out – Yeah, Patriots, Steel. The Bengals. Okay. I'm okay with throwing out.

Yeah. Patriots, Steelers, Bengals. Yep. We like those, right? Okay. That's three. That's three. I'm okay with throwing out the Dolphins minus 11 and a half.

Over Jacksonville? No. Over keeping probably Houstonston and san francisco so so we are we we're dumping jacksonville i what do you think so i think we're i think we're deciding between four teams for two picks so it's miami playing the 11 and a half yeah and right houston plus jacksonville houston miami san francisco what do you think yeah which one do you like of those do you love miami i feel like it's it's the squarest bet of all time it's it couldn't be more square it's it's like the it's

a super public team laying a ton of points against the team that just got blown out the the jacksonville thing is is i don't know what's going on with them like this is the game that you would think they would rebound but you know maybe that maybe that is a smart play i just wish it was six if that was six i think i would i would just i would make a harder push for that. But it's five and a half at best everywhere. I don't know. I mean, I think Houston is a pretty smart play.

But I feel like we could get burned by it. I don't know, man. What do you think? Falcons games always drive us crazy. So let's eliminate Falcons game. Okay. Fine. I think we both like the Niners.

It's prime time. I get it. So let's put the Niners in there. Okay? Sure. Now we're choosing between Jacksonville against Buffalo or the Dolphins covering 11.5 at home against the Giants. Or the Dolphins covering 11.5 at home against the Giants.

I mean, the Giants really suck, man. Yeah, they're really bad. What is that number? What is that 11.5? I – Like 35-21 is a good cover in this game like what like what are we are we getting 28 20 are we getting like a late daniel jones i mean it's a dolphin's offense just like not you know dolphin defense not going to play well in this game they haven't played terribly well and maybe that's the reason why they guys run the ball to death and and less

possessions on offense for miami the the giants don't hit the passer like i i don't i don't care with miami just we have we have some leeway to do this by the way i'm i think i am too, honestly. Like 87 degrees in Miami. They're going to be on the sideline. It's going to be hot. I mean, Jacksonville is – I don't feel like anyone's on Jacksonville this week. I haven't heard one really good case for Jacksonville. Where Miami, it's just sort of like they are so much better than the Giants in every single piece.

If the Giants didn't make the playoffs last year, I feel like this would be like 14 and a half. But it's a lot of respect based on last year. Yeah, I agree. So let's do it, man. So Miami, New England, Pittsburgh, Bengals, Niners. We're going to take a break, and we'll come back and talk about our favorite plays

for the vaulted pool this week. You can join free to join on the vaulted app using promo code. Jeff, we'll be back and talk about our favorite plays for the Vaulted pool this week. You can join, free to join on the Vaulted app using promo code Jeff. We'll be back in a second. Are you smarter than your friends? Prove it with Vaulted by predicting, challenging, and beating them with your sports knowledge. Vaulted, spelled V-L-T-E-D,

is a place where you can store your sports predictions, participate in cash prize pools without any entry fees, and prove you are smarter than your friends by using the Vaulted Challenge feature. I will have my own pool on Vaulted each week. We can answer questions to win cash prizes. And there are no entry fees required to participate. This football season, Vaulted will be handing out money. The only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of the regular season pools,

which won't happen because as you know, I am smarter than you. I will be using Vaulted to make and store my five favorite predictions of the week. So join Vaulted and you can like, dislike, comment, interact with my predictions, or if you're bold enough, you can make your own and see how smart you are in football,

which won't be as smart as me. Go download Vaulted, spelled V-L-T--e-d and remember to use the code jeff that's g-e-o-f-f so you can see my predictions and play along guys i want to tell you about my favorite new daily fantasy game i have been playing this season prize picks is a skill-based real money daily fantasy sports game how does it work you pick two to six players and if they will go more or less than the prize picks projection you can win up to 25 times your money in any entry so go to prize picks and use code g ssy for a first deposit match up to 100 it's so easy to use i can make my picks in less than 60 seconds the depositing was simple and straightforward

they even just added Apple Pay, so I was able to get up in minutes and start playing. At PrizePix, you're competing against other people. It's just you versus projections available instead of battling thousands of other players, including pros and sharks. So follow along my weekly entry and see if you can do better. Remember, go to PrizePix and use code GSSY

for a first deposit match up to $100. All right, guys, we're back to talk about uh the vaulted app and the vaulted pool um it's a lot of fun i mean we're doing each week matt i was able to win i think nick producer nick had a cash out one week so come join us i just went all for the tens i just i used to do this tier thing where i was picking like a picking and putting a five all tens all tens down the road we're going to start with here with a rate with a raven's cover three and a half against pittsburgh the answer is no they're not covering that so disagree 10 point disagree here's a fun one ready kurt cousins more passing yards than patrick mahomes if you agree on this we're not friends anymore we're just not friends we're not friends to strike disagree you're betting cousins against my homes you're absolutely insane

so i'm gonna go disagree there 10 point disagree here's another one man i like ready tyreek will tyreek he'll have over 89 and a half yards receiving who's guarding him on the giants who's stopping him strong agree of that fun one one here. Tony Paul will have more rushing yards than Christian McCaffrey. Hard pass. Hard pass on that one there. McCaffrey's on pace, by the way, for 340 rushing attempts this year, which is absolutely insane. Insane number.

Last one here. We talked about the nightcap, the Monday night game here. Devonta Adams will have more than 1.5 touchdowns against the Packers. No. No. Who's passing the ball? A. No. Connell?

Jimmy G? No. The answer is no. No. Disagree. Do you have any that you'd like before we get out of here? I do have to get to a wedding fairly quickly. There's a Friday wedding I've got to go to.

What do we got? I love that. I do think there's – all the games we talked about and had opinions on are in here so uh i like the daniel jones having more interceptions than tua has rushing yards i think that's funny i think that if you're over one and a half uh then then probably no he doesn't uh he's just gonna be first read gone tyree's crazy let's go dolphins all right guys it was a great show today as usual we hope we continue our winning ways go to vaulted app download it's free

to play promo code Jeff Jeff with a G we'll be back on Monday to cover everything happening in the NFL we can take care of everyone have a great weekend enjoy the sports