Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - NFL Referees Actually Do Their Jobs Well

Episode Date: October 15, 2019

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work that clock to your advantage and score last minute tickets they saw something different than what actually happened and they called what they thought they saw so yeah From The Athletic, I'm Jeff Schwartz. The refs find the spotlight again in Green Bay. The Chiefs should trade for Jalen Ramsey, and the Browns should probably fire Freddie Kitchens. It's Thursday, October 10th, and this is Jeff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. All right, Gabe, we're going to get right to this. This is the 17th episode.

I'm not going to explain how it works. We have so much to discuss, so you just fire away at me, buddy. Okay. Well, the only take available on football Twitter right now is that the refs are terrible humans and we should get rid of all of them. They're out there, you know, running some conspiracy to help the league get the result it wants. The latest evidence came in the Lions game last night where Trey Flowers was called for hands to the face twice. Nobody thought it was the right call. Then basically every person on Twitter became like Dean Blandino refsplaining it to us, shooting videos of their TV screens and zooming in where they wanted.

Jeff, it's maddening. You literally broke your phone trying to respond to all these people on Twitter. You had to go get a new phone this morning just so you could keep extinguishing these hot takes. How nuts is the ref talk this morning? Look, the problem with the ref talk is that it's taking away from the great games we've had so far this season, right? So we're dominating the news cycle, NFL news cycle, by officiating, which is the worst thing you want, right? You want your game to be the number one focus. And then obviously, if there's an error or two, you talk about that.

The problem is there's many errors, and they happened last night in high leverage situations. So I'm going to kind of take us on a path here of why I think we are at where we are with officiating. So first of all, all the older officials have gone into the booth or retired. We have John Perry now and Gene Statutore and Dean Blandino and Mike Pereira. I think Walt Coleman is still officiating, but he's on the outs pretty soon. All the older officials have now disappeared or they're gone into the booth. There's an officiating shortage in this country because it does not pay well and you're getting screamed at by parents on the youth level, on the professional level. You're getting scrutinized on Twitter and on social media, by your friends and family, by players, by coaches.

It's a job. It's a very thankless job. You do it. I don't know why you do it. I used to umpire a high school baseball game, by the way, in college. It was fun. But I got berated by coaches over the stupidest stuff that I was correct about. I got berated by coaches over the stupidest stuff that I was correct about.

So there's not as many officials that want this job, and there are young officials that aren't used to the game, in my opinion, the speed of the game. What's also bogging officials down is there are too many points of emphasis and too many things they're told to look for. So we talked about this with the holding calls this year, right? They called too many holdings because they're looking for one specific holding call, a lobster block, and they went ahead and called all the holdings, right? And just like every year we have a point on this, whether it's hands to the face,

which was only three or four years ago, whether it's, okay, a legal contact with the helmet, whether it's, okay, we're going to call more pass interferences this year, we're going to call more defensive holdings this year. They're on the lookout for too many penalties instead of just calling what they see. So the NFL needs to eliminate every offseason a point of emphasis. Every offseason, there's one. We're in the locker room, not the locker room, the team meeting room. The officials come during training camp.

They show a video. Hey, guys, here's a point of emphasis or points of emphasis we are going to do this year. We're going to defensive holding, illegal hands to the face, helmet contact, whatever it is, they come into our building and tell us what they're going to look for. Well, when you're on high alert game to look for a penalty, you're going to find other penalties as well. Do you agree with that? I think that's right. Okay. I was a fan of this PI review. I don't know if our podcast was going back when this became a thing. I don't know if we, I do not know if we've covered this before on the podcast. I was a fan of decision to review pass interference. The problem with that now is it's completely backfired on the NFL and they

have got to get rid of it. And they've really stopped calling them at all. Like if I think 24 last 25, the call stood in the field, whether it was to reverse a pass interference or to call a pass interference there, there needs to be, the call stood on the field, whether it was to reverse a pass interference or to call a pass interference. There needs to be, just right now, they need to go ahead and say, look, we are done doing this. What's happened with allowing judgment calls to be reviewed is everyone wants everything

to be reviewed. They want it all to be perfect now. And the NFL game is not perfect. It's played by humans. It's official by humans. It's fast-paced. It's physical. It is like, it is,

unless you've been like, it's just, it's so fast. It's so violent. It's so quick. It's so physical that you have to kind of be down there to see it. And the officials are going to make mistakes, and they're not going to be perfect. And when you try to make it perfect with the PI review and reviewing judgment calls, you're never going to be happy, and no one's ever going to be happy. That's a huge problem, I think, with what's happening right now. So they eliminate the reviewing of PI.

Yes, we're going to have bad PI calls, but we're not going to have the extra part of it, which is, look, look on an HD slow-mo replay where the guy's hand was hit before the ball was thrown, whatever it was, right? We're not going to have those issues anymore. We're going to have errors like we've always had, but not the ability to review them. And then when you start reviewing judgment plays, Gabe, like passing and fairing, they want everything reviewed, correct? Like, let's review holding.

Let's review hands to the face. Let's review a spot where he gets reviewed correct like let's review holding let's review hands to the face let's review a spot which already gets reviewed but let's review everything else and in my opinion the nfl game is not set up to review everything i mean it would be a mistake to do that one solution could be a sky judge like the af had where a guy sitting upstairs hey guys not hands to the face the only way I would like a sky judge is if they were only to review errors made on the field, I called penalties on the field, not like, yes,

we found a holding on this play. Let's call it because every play will be like that, but like really errors. And the problem again with that game is that there's going to be people upset that this play was not overturned by the sky judge. Yeah. Well, I mean, that i mean that's

that's what's going on right now so the people who are firing the hottest takes out there are doing so by picking what they want from the video right so i i have now seen multiple people share the the spot where they think this call was blown and some find bakhtiari putting his hands on trey flower's face and others find trey flower's putting his hands on Trey Flowers' face and others find Trey Flowers putting his hands on Bakhtiari's face, which was what it's called. Like, you can spot whatever you want in there. So I just feel like no matter what we do, it's more of what you're saying,

no matter what we do, someone, 50% of the people watching the game are going to be pissed about the call or no call. It's completely impossible. I don't understand. Like, also, everyone, you don't have any idea how officiating works until the moment you think you're an expert. Just chill out. Do you realize that after last season, there was obviously a famously blown call in the NFC championship game. I read this just this morning. The NFL has 121 officials at the

end of last year. They had 121 officials. They're evaluated by the officiating department each week. So that organization says there were 155 plays on average each game. They get those right upon review later, they go back and look at their own tape. They get them right. 95 to 97% of the time. Okay, so are we asking for better than 97% of the time in accuracy? Or do we just need something to tweet about? Like, can we just chill the hell out? Sorry, you're supposed to be the one who

gets annoyed at the tape. Well, I think that I like that we have replays now. I like that we have the ability to see things in slow motion. I like that. I like Dean Bland things in slow motion i like that i i like dean blandino in the booth i like my prayer i think it brings to the viewer it brings us great nuance about the game right like we hear what a call should be for example this weekend we had um in in in london we

have a we have a fair catch free kick right did you know that was a thin game by the way uh you can see that play i i i don't think i oh that you know that was a thing, Gabe, by the way? Did you even see that play? I don't think I... Oh, that was early on the West Coast. So do you know what a fair catch, free kick is? No, I mean, you're going to have to explain this. Okay, so basically, if there's a punt and you fair catch the punt, you're allowed to actually attempt a kickoff from that spot where you've caught the ball,

and it counts as three points if it goes through the uprights. You're saying that's a real rule? It's a real rule. People know about it. It just doesn't happen very often. Okay. And so the Panthers attempted a free kick in London, a 60-yard free kick.

And so it's a kickoff without a tee. That's why it's a free kick. So they had a holder and everything. And they had the distance. It was just a little bit to the right. But look, we had a referee come on right away and explain what a fair catch free kick is, right? So great job, right? Like we get to learn about the game.

And it's great. But those things are hurting officiating by far. Because often we hear they're contradicting the call on the field. And those factors, the slow motion replays the the fan bases anger toward officiating especially when it's not uh when it's kind of you're kind of screwed people implying that there's that people are throwing games now because of gambling which is just a bunch of horse shit it's not happening no one's throwing games because of that there's so there's so much regulation on everybody vegas does not want games to be thrown it ruins the legitimacy of their business so they're not people are not throwing games anymore

um and never really in the nfl have ever thrown a game it's so hard to do that um and so officials are not are not directed to let the packers win over the lions um there's just there's so much hatred and i don't i don't know if there's a solution actually at all well no there doesn't appear to be one and i've heard the smartest people you know in our industry trying to talk about this today and all it is right now is outrage so why don't we just accept that there's going to be some mistakes made and over the balance of time some will go your way and others won't. If you are a person who roots for the Lions, probably it ain't going to work out for you in the long run. OK, it's just that's how it is.

The football gods decided long ago you aren't getting nice things. So we should all just move along. Let's just try to enjoy our Monday nights. I mean, I woke up. I was like, what the hell? What happened? What? Everyone's losing their damn mind.

Yeah. Look, I think that I don't know what the actual – I don't know what would make people happy. I guess like – because here's the thing, Gabe. I always think about this stuff. When people say the idea is like we want them to be perfect, but do you really want them to be perfect? Or do you want them to not miss up two calls, three calls? Like what is the threshold for wanting a call to be right or wrong? And the NFL is different than other sports.

For example, Major League Baseball. I know people get pissed when I say this. I did say on Twitter today that there is a defined strike zone in Major League Baseball. Okay? Believe it or not, there is. okay believe it or not there is um uh they have a system where they uh they grade the um the the umpires on the strike zone they don't say hey jeff schwartz has a high strike zone everyone gabe goodwin has a low strike zone there's a strike zone they're graded on it now they might they obviously miss calls right but you're either out of your safe right you're either sliding into a

base you're either there before the ball's there or not you're tagged you're not right you've either caught the ball or you're not there's no like well maybe it was pass interference maybe it was hands to the face maybe it was holding i don't really know you cannot compare baseball replay to that of football replay they're different different sports. And one last thing, Gabe, before you move on to something else, I think we've covered this profusely. We do this thing where we compare other jobs to jobs that happen on the field during sports. So when I say, for example, that you couldn't do, you couldn't come off the street and go officiate a game like you think you can. People take that as a slight to their job, that officiating is tougher than your job. I never said that, nor did I imply that.

I'm talking about the officiating job only. I'm not saying that your job as an accountant isn't hard or whatever you're doing isn't hard. I'm talking about officiating in a vacuum to come on the field and do it is very hard to do. And to think you could just go ahead and do it because you make difficult decisions in your job. It has nothing to do with the point I'm trying to make. So I don't know why we do that in sports, right? We compare, you know, athletes jobs like, oh, Jeff Schwartz, you in the NFL, you did this, but in my job, I did that. Well, I'm not comparing your jobs. I know what my job was. I thought you did this, but in my job, I did that. Well, I'm not comparing your jobs.

I know what my job was. So I just, I just, I kind of have to get up. Am I wrong in saying that? No, of course not. And I mean, here's the thing. These people are the best in the world at calling these games. Okay. So they do make more money than the average guy with an average job. And if people are jealous of that, okay, I get it.

It's a high paid job, but it's also a high pressure job and if people are jealous of that okay i get it it's a high paid job but it's also a high pressure job that takes years and years of training these guys aren't random they've worked their way up from probably calling like high school games they do yeah college like you have to be the best yes yeah i mean you have to like um you have to be able to work your way my brother is just like my brother had wanted at one point to be an official. I don't think he does anymore. And he thought about doing it. And he told him, look, you got to spend like maybe you could fast track you five, seven years to maybe then you get to major division one ball.

And then you maybe go to the NFL. It's a process. And again, I'm just telling you, i know it sounds elitist of me i know it sounds like i'm smarter than you which is obviously the point of this podcast but i'm just telling you guys like you have to be able to stand on the field and watch the game before um you can make some of the judgments about how the game should be called. I say that all the time. Until you've watched the game on the field,

you don't know how violent it is. You might think it is in the first row, and I tweet this out every now and then, and people are like, yeah, for one time we had to be on the sidelines for the last five minutes of a game, and wow, it's so different. And to think that you can just go ahead and do it

because you watch it on television, I think, is not really the approach you should be taking. No, of course not. It's like watching Law and Order and then thinking I'd be a pretty good litigator. Like, no, no, you wouldn't. You know, that's fiction. And the person spent years in law school and then probably, you know, years more sitting behind five other experienced people before they had the moment that looked something like that scene, which isn't actually how it works. Like, no, you're completely right about this. You're not being elitist at all. Like it's a profession. It takes years. The average age of an official in

the NFL is something like 51. That means these aren't retirees. These are guys who've been doing it for 30 years. Okay. So everyone just calm down. The calls will not go your way every time let's use twitter for other things to be annoyed about not refs a week ago you told me when i was freaking out you told me to calm down okay but now our pets heads are falling off in kansas city jeff the chiefs are officially in panic mode they've lost two in a row at home, and they don't look good in any phase of the game. All right? They got Tyreek Hill back. He looked great.

Wasn't enough. Okay? They gave up 31 to the Texans in a loss. I'll say it. People are saying it. Time for the Chiefs to trade for Jalen Ramsey. That's the answer. That's the take.

React to that. All right. So a couple of things here. I wrote an article for SB Nation this week on like a basically like a like on like an on the edge meter. Like all the fans of the Chiefs, Cowboys and Rams are on the edge. Right. And I basically said that essentially the same thing I said last week, which is, look, the Chiefs have issues on offense. But they could easily be corrected with the health of Pat Mahomes.

His ankle clearly is bothering him. He's not able to move as much, and his footwork is atrocious right now. It's pretty bad. Balls are sailing on him. Offensive line being hurt, obviously. There is an ability to push the ball down if he doesn't have right now. And then the offensive line is an issue because, again, when you're left guard, left tackler out, there's no protection for him so i think those

keep easily fixed right with eric fisher coming back with palmer homes feeling better but defensively there is a problem and they have the same problem all the time they've not been able to stop the run for years i mean you can't stop the run you can't rush the passer very well um and frank explain that though because that's the kind of thing that people say don't bother to explain okay so okay this is hard this is something analytics cannot explain and but every player will tell you this so because i've argued with analytics people about this there's a thought about like body blows right so if i'm constantly beating on you all game running the football like i'm being physical with you i'm getting you like when you're you still are physical and pass protection but it's actually if it's easier to, to be like extra physical and run blocking, right?

You're in a mush together. You're able to hit off guys. You're able to kind of like jab guys late in the ribs and just like kind of like hit guys, like, you know, hit guys a little bit late and obviously not dirty, but just like being their grill all the time. And it's a physically demanding thing to do, to run block and to, and to run defense. And when you're physically dominating someone, they're mentally, they get a little weak, obviously, right? I mean, clearly, right? You don't want to be physically dominating. The best feeling for offensive linemen is moving a person from point A to point B against their will, right? It's fabulous. And that demoralizes them because they're a human. They don't want that to happen, right? They're a big, strong, physical

player. So when you're running the ball a bunch, the defense gets worn down and they don't rush the passer as well. It also allows you to sell play action better because you're comfortable in run blocking, you're comfortable in run blocking, and you're able to sell the run more often. And then, of course, like I said, in pass protection, you're not in third and long very often if you run the football well. You're in advantageous situations where teams aren't going to blitz as much. And it just makes it easier to function as an offense when that happens. Part of the reason the Rams aren't playing well right now is because they're in third and long all the time. They can't run the football and they can't play action pass and they can't do the things they're good at. So the Chiefs defense being, and also it keeps your defense on the field. You get tired. The Texans had, I think, 80 something plays at 35 first downs. So when the Chiefs can't stop the run, they're on the field too long, they can't rush the passer,

and their secondary starts holding a bunch of people, like usual. And they have a lot of issues on defense. And I thought Frank Clark wasn't coming in dominant. He hasn't. I don't know if Matthew, the Honey Badger, I don't analyze secondary play. I don't know if he's playing good or not.

He hasn't made, in my opinion, a bunch of impact plays yet that I've seen. And the defense is the problem. So back to your question, Gabe. I would trade Tyreek Hill for Jalen Ramsey or Patrick Peterson. That's the only two players I'd trade him for. If you get a healthy Sammy Watkins back and you have a healthy Pat Mahomes and Travis Kelsey is healthy, your offense is like,

you don't need Tyreek Hill. I know Chiefs fans, you think I'm crazy. Your offense was fine with him for most of the year. You entered this week second in offensive DVOA, right? Football outsiders. And Tyreek Hill had caught two passes all season, okay? You don't need him. What you need is a corner

and someone to stop the pass game to help hopefully whenever the team does pass the ball on you. So I'm with you here. I would make this trade. I know people think I'm crazy. I don't know if Ramsey's the guy, but yeah, it needs to be done. No sacks against Deshaun Watson, who basically gets sacked every time he turns around.

Two weeks in a row, by the way, with no sacks. Okay, so another thing smart guys like you tend to tell me is that sacks are actually the result of coverage in a lot of cases. Oh, yes. So, I mean, that's a more telling stat, right? Like, truly, Deshaun just falls into six sacks a game. I mean, how do they not sack that guy? Well, again, like for the Chiefs issue,

is that they just weren't in advantageous positions to sack him very often um and the texas offense is not as bad as we think which is part of that reason as well um and so i think that uh the texans are looking good right now all right well so they have uh they're at the colts and then they have the raiders at jags abai and at ravens so i'd say a few games they should win. You know, not all easy games. Those are some tougher games. But the Texans could get a little hot here.

Chiefs, though, at Denver on the short week against the Packers and against the Vikings. Like, this two-game slide could easily become losing, you know, four out of five. That's totally a possibility. And the Patriots are dominant right now. Yeah, well, the Chiefs game against Denver on Thursday is going to be interesting. That's totally a possibility, and the Patriots are dominant right now. Yeah, well, the Chiefs game against Denver on Thursday is going to be interesting. That's a quick turnaround. Yeah.

Especially with the injured crew, yeah. Denver's not better than them, so we'll see. All right, well, let's move to the next topic. This is one that risks you breaking another phone here. You were the first person I know of to be on the Freddie Kitchens is in over his head take. That was what you said before the season even started. His Browns lost again, this time to the Seahawks. Baker tossed up some picks again.

I'm not going to ask you to just repeat what you've been saying, but tell me if you like this big take of an idea. The Browns should get rid of Freddie Kitchens either midseason or as soon as this year's over. Go get Lincoln Riley and reunite him with Baker Mayfield. Oh, man. Freddie Kitchens, he had some bonehead mistakes in this game from a coaching perspective.

Baker Mayfield continues to not play well. I told you guys, I warned you, that he was going to be over his head, and guess what? He's over his head. So, look at Riley. I don't think he's going to take this job. He has a great Oklahoma right now.

Why would he take the job with the Browns who are a dysfunctional franchise for the last 20 years? Well, he's not going to win a national championship as long as Clemson and Alabama still exist. But Turing, I'm a little infringing on our next topic that we're coming up with, but Jerry Jones is going to be calling Lincoln Riley. And if Jerry Jones is calling Lincoln Riley,

Lincoln Riley is going to Dallas. So while it's great that the Browns might have a job opening because I think that Freddie Kitchens is in over his head, I don't know if he's going to get rid of him after this year. They might give him one more year to figure it out. But the team is poorly coached. Baker Mayfield's gotten worse. They're undisciplined.

They make weird decisions during the game that Freddie has awfully weird quotes about afterwards. And it's just like, it's not good right now. So, you know, they need to go ahead and pull the bandit after the season. I would imagine that they're going to do that. But I think we can rise on the Cowboys if the Cowboys don't win anymore, which I'm sad because I think that might happen. Okay, well, we're going to hit the Cowboys in a little bit. I just, before we move off this game, I do want to ask,

are we missing the story because, you know, the Browns are our sort of typical dumpster fire. The Seahawks won that game. And a lot of people were talking about Russell Wilson having a touchdown drive without his headset working and thinking that was incredible. This is probably where you tell me that's nothing special. Oh, no, that's super cool. Oh, okay. Yeah, I've not had that happen before, I don't think.

Really? You've never played with a quarterback where that happened and he scored? Wow. No, no, I mean, I i take that back you do it in two minutes i mean i don't know if coaches call two minute or not like when you're hurrying up i don't know if they do or not maybe they do but i mean russell was called a whole drive by himself i think yeah he did and i don't think he has a plate a play i don't think he has an armband either so he just remembered the plays which he should obviously just called him out and like that's the Seahawks offense should be that. So you're, I figured like you'd tell me why, you know, that's just some dumb thing. People like me think is cool, but any good quarterback should be able to do that. You're saying that's, that's rare. That's very rare. Yes.

We're going to move to the next story here, Jeffrey. Um, once again, you lied to me. You told me that the Cowboys were going to be great this year. You told me that Dak impressed you after I said beating the Giants didn't mean anything. You continued to defend the Cowboys after the two losses to the Packers and the Saints. And then they just lost to the Jets, my Jets. So I think we better just listen to our friend Pat McAfee on this one because I want you to react to what he said and not worry about me. Jason Garrett seems to have lost the locker room.

And I say that. They just look like a team that's uninspired. They go into this game. It looked like they never really were going to have a chance. There's a time where Jason Garrett comes out on the field with both his hands out like this. And the entire offense is done. He's done right by him.

We don't give a damn about you, pal. It's been a decade of average. We can't do it. It just seems like there's something nasty brewing down there in the Cowboys. And behind the scenes, I don't know what it is with Jerry Jones and Jason Garrett and Kellen Mornell. Something has to get fixed because they're going to be forced down our throat on national television every single week.

I would like them to be good. I'm just not sure Jason Garrett's the guy to get them. There's a lot here. But for a former player, pat is not just some guy he's a former player to say that a coach lost the locker room what do you make of that yeah that feels a little bit a little bit much um but what's interesting about the cowboys is it does feel like jason gare decided to take over um the play calling from Kellen Moore after the first three weeks of the season.

The offense looks completely different than it looked when Kellen Moore was running it. They've dropped now in the amount of play action pass they're using, like significantly amount. I think the last three weeks they've only been their third worst for play action usage. In the first three weeks, they were at the top of the NFL in play action usage. And we know that play action pass is a really good way for the Cowboys to move the ball. They don't run the ball as well. And by the way, I'm tired of hearing about excuses for Dak Prescott.

Oh, someone's hurt. Someone's hurt. Guys, look, you got to be able to play through some injuries. And if the Cowboys cannot function on an offense with a couple guys out against the freaking Jets, I don't want to hear the excuse. I'm tired of it. Whenever Dak plays bad, I'm over it. I'm over the excuses

for Dak Prescott, but the offense looks like Jason Garrett took over again, which is wild to me. And Dan Orlovsky, I asked him on Twitter. He's like, yeah, I've seen that happen before. So I had never been on a team that the head coach decided after three weeks where your team is doing well to take over the offense, but

maybe he was jealous of the attention that Kellen Moore was getting. Maybe he thought that he'd lose his job that that he would take his job from him if he did a good job you know throughout the season i don't know what it is about it um but uh obviously not very good but i want to ask you a question sam donald buddy no no no no i'm not getting excited about this yet why not no come, come on. They probably shouldn't have won the game. Come on. Sam Darnold played well. Just give your boy some props.

We spent some time talking to your buddy Dave Damoshek each week, and he and I have been agreeing that the Jets are probably going to win a bunch of games now and end up, you know, six and 10, maybe even seven and nine. There's something, something that puts you right in the middle of the draft instead of towards the top where you get a really great player or they're not going to be a playoff team. I don't think you start on four and become a playoff team. So, you know, Darnold's better than a third stringer, but I'm not getting excited yet. I'm sorry. I can't do it um well fair enough

but i i would be pumped if i were you no i'm not gonna be it i mean i hope one day he's great i'm i'm not gonna fall for it on one game back against a team who by the way to talk cowboys stinks three in a row the only wins are against bad teams like what why were we thinking these guys were good because i'll tell you why a couple reasons one is because their offense looked so different than what it previously had been i think that got us a little bit so you got me excited right i mean it had been different than anything they had run under jason garrett right it looked explosive like i said you guys placer pass the rpos dac will look confident in the pocket and now they've gone back

to the offense that they were and look look, results might have been the same, but they're not even trying the same stuff they used to do, which is really the big problem here. They haven't been able to do that. And so that's a concern. And really, their defense has sucked. I thought their defense would be much better this year. They were great last year.

They have playmakers on all three levels of their defense. At the line, the linebackers in the back end and the safeties and stuff in the corners. Their defense just hasn't played as good and that's part of the issue with the Cowboys right now. We'll see what happens the next couple of weeks. But look, they're still first in the division, right? I mean, they're tied. They're 3-3

with the Eagles. The Giants, by the way, are close to being first in the division. Well, so they have the Eagles next week. They'll be home against the Eagles. I don't know being home does anything for him. Then they have the Giants in Jersey. Then they have the Vikings, the Lions, the Patriots, the Bills, the Bears, the Rams. I mean, it's not going to be easy for the next few weeks here with the Cowboys. Unless you get to schedule your first three-game stretch against the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins like the season began, I don't see them getting hot again.

Even if they win a game here and there, they're not going to put three together. Especially if they have injuries in the offensive line. Obviously, Dak can clearly not play if there's injuries at the offensive line. Because obviously Dak can clearly not play if there's injuries on the offensive line. So if Tyron Smith can't play or Lionel Collins, they have no chance of winning. So yeah, I'm with you. I think it's going to be tougher. But look, there must be a rule of pick, and I'm sticking with it. If you're a regular listener of this show, you know I'm a big believer in the Indianapolis Colts.

If you're a believer too, you've got to check out the 1% Better podcast at The Athletic. Zach Kiefer and Stephen Holder bring you the latest news and notes from the sideline to the locker room twice a week on The Athletic website and The Athletic app. Just this week, they answered fan questions and handed Indy a bi-week report

card ahead of a big matchup with Houston. So remember, that's 1% Better on The Athletic. Alright remember that's 1% better on the athletic. All right, let's move on to some, uh, some betting here. We like to play a game called move the line.

It's a series of over unders. Some of them are real. Most of them I made up. Let's start here. Points. The Redskins will score next week against the undefeated 49ers over under 2.5 points. Is this game at home or on the road

we will double check for you i'm gonna check right now too um this game is in san francisco i'm gonna go over here i mean see in washington i'm gonna over here okay i feel like you're gonna get um a little bit of a letdown here going across the country and playing in a stadium that seats 90,000 there's 4,000 people in the game. I think that Washington will get a score in this game. So you're basically betting on whether or not they'll be shut out. So I'm going to go with the Redskins here will get a score in this game, yes. Okay.

I guess a score can be a safety, but nonetheless, I think that they'll get a score here. Okay. Now, San Francisco's defense has been incredible so far. Very good. Uh, so I mean, they've,

they've, they've held down good offenses, seven for the Rams, three for the Browns. It's like, like what if they have a freaky turnover and the, the rest of the kick a field goal. Okay. All right.

So you're taking the over in this ridiculously stupid question. I asked you fair enough. Uh, let me go to this. Christian McCaffrey, all purpose yards, 2,600 for the season. I'm going to give you a little context in a minute. First, I want your gut feeling over under 2,600 yards for Christian McCaffrey.

I will say over. He's had a fabulous year. I do not see it changing. Wow. I think it's over. I think he's been that he's he's been that good so far now let me let me just give you some context the record is darren sproles few years ago 2696 yards keep in mind you know a thousand or more of those are on kick and punt

returns christian's not doing that anymore not doing it and probably too valuable to ever he already has 923 scrimmage yards that's six weeks that's right we're leading the league so he's he's on pace to get near the number i'm talking about but you're saying over 2600 i put money over because i get some good plus money here wow okay so chris johnson uh last guy to come anywhere close to that without having the kick and punt returns on his favor he had 2509 in 2009 so that was his 2000 yard rushing season so you think christian could go beyond that yeah wow all right another fun one this guy uh tends to trigger you so just let me get through it

lamar jackson rush yards040 over under. He is at 460 now. They have a tough schedule coming up too. I'm going to say over because I think that with their tough schedule, he'll be relied on to run more in the pass game especially, like break plays and make weird plays at the end of games. So I'm going to go over here. Again, it doesn't make him a good quarterback, but's very athletic you can't deny that obviously so you're predicting he will set the record for

quarterback rushing yards beating mike fix record yes okay he's on pace for 1227 right now uh yeah if he sets this record though what i'm hearing is cool good for you it doesn't help the team no i don't think they'll make the playoffs still i think the browns might i think the browns as bad as they're playing right now the browns have a really cake schedule on the way out and they can get things together they can be in the playoffs i could see an eight or nine win team win the playoffs here all right zuri is gonna clip that out uh you've said similar before and we're gonna put that in the time capsule and play that one back to you in a few weeks okay all right uh bangles dolphins week 16 over under 2.5 points scored any points at all i'm gonna go under i'm gonna root for a tie

okay you're gonna go under a zero zero tie has there ever been a 0-0 tie in modern NFL football? I don't know, but Oregon State played the toilet bowl 0-0 tie in the 1980s before overtime. Okay, well, let's see if the Bengals and Dolphins can repeat the toilet bowl. Yeah, let's do it. One more football question before I get to a more pressing matter. Cowboys wins.

We touched on them earlier. You're saying you're hanging on to your Super Bowl prediction. Cowboys wins over under 8.5. I guess you have to take the over. They make the playoffs. Yes, I'm still going over. So they're like a 9 or 10 win team, and then they get hot. Yeah, still doing it.

We're going over still, yes. Oh, God. Okay. I mean, it feels like 9 and 7 would be a dream come true for them at this point. I'm sticking with it, buddy. Okay, fair enough. Yeah. Last one. We hit this before the season even started. I have to confess I've not yet watched. Um, how many more days till you and I watch El Camino on Netflix? 1.5 days.

I already watched it. Oh, you hit it. Yeah. Oh buddy. We didn't talk about it. Don't watch it. I watched it before, uh, between like Tuesday and today, whenever we last, we talked. Okay. So you watched it over the weekend. I was worried that there'd be too much football and you wouldn't get to it. No,

I watched it like Friday. I think I finished. I don't want to watch it Friday, Wednesday. What was your, uh, what was your take? I haven't seen it yet.

Oh, I thought it was good. I thought we were going to hit play together and you know, like, Oh, I thought it was good. Okay. Yeah. That's not a glowing review, but I'll, I'm okay. I, I'm a very, thought we were gonna hit play together and you know like oh i thought i thought it was good okay that's not a glowing review but i'll i'm okay i i'm a very i'm a very simple person when it comes

to movies was it entertained or not that's playing i'm not a movie critic as playing movies i like that that people don't like i just want to be in i just want to be entertained and entertain me for two hours okay well that's that's the standard we need to hit. I'm going to move to social. People send you a lot of funny stuff. Um, sometimes today's a rough day for social. Sometimes they send you hate this one. I'm just going to keep it light. I'm going to avoid controversy. I'm just going to ask you a question that, uh, our buddy Adam Harbor wanted to know. He says, uh, as an old lineman, did you particularly like or hate screenplays? Um, Did you particularly like or hate screenplays? I loved them.

Because I felt that, look, I loved them because Andy Reid taught them correctly when I was in Kansas City. He taught them the best I've ever seen him taught. The detail with which he told the lineman where to be based on the part of the field you're in, the running back, you need to be here, the ball had to be there, you're the running back. You need to be here. The ball had to be there. You're blocking this guy.

You're turning up here. And just being able to teach it in that manner hooked me on how good they can work. And you see the Chiefs every week execute multiple screens each week for huge gains, right? It's fantastic to see them do this. So as a lineman, yes, I think you do like screens because they're able to neutralize the pass rush

and they get big gains if done correctly. Now, I've had many coaches who couldn't teach screens worth a shit and I hated running them because they were terribly designed and they put us

at a disadvantage against athletes on defense that are much quicker and faster than us. So yes, I like them if they're done correctly and if they're not, they're terrible.

So I would leave yes here because as my brother plays for the chiefs i watch a ton of football i love watching screens when they're done correctly the saints are really good at them the cowboys are good at them there's some things that are really good at them okay compare these two you have a choice it's either going to be a big man touchdown somehow the ball comes loose you're holding it you're running towards the end zone that must feel great i'm gonna let you choose between that or it's a perfectly designed screen play you got a full head of steam you're a few yards upfield and you get to go pancake some diva receiver which one is scoring a touchdown on that one or am i just running the ball you're gonna hit the end zone you're gonna make it all the way to the end zone i can promise you

i've done the pancake enough i'd rather do a touchdown for once really never scored a touchdown no not in your whole career not like going back to childhood no seriously i didn't play youth football oh that's right you played baseball and then like somebody was just like you're huge you need to go block exactly what happened yes oh okay that's incredible so not once have you ever been in the end zone i i i recovered a two-point conversion fumble that doesn't count man yeah okay well we what we need to do is get in some sort of like you know adult league flag football team here out in la have you come in one day and we'll just run we'll run screenplays for you jeff you'll just do it you'll be the receiver um all right well I think that's probably all we have this week.

Why don't you fill us in on a few more things and tag us out? We got to go complain about refs on Twitter. Today was a wild episode. Thanks for joining us as usual. This is our free Tuesday episode. iTunes, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify. This one, obviously, on The Athletic, The Athletic Podcast. I appreciate all the support, the ratings, reviews, the likes,

the tweets, at Jeff Schwartz. We'll be back Thursday with our episode for subscribers only. Until then, be safe out there on the Twitter streets. It's tough right now for someone who wants to have some nuance about officiating like myself. I'll talk to you guys on Thursday.