Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - NFL Week 1 Best Bets: 49ers Reaction and College Football Predictions

Episode Date: September 11, 2026

Geoff Schwartz is joined by Will Hill to break down the opening week of the NFL season! They kick things off reacting to the 49ers' dominant win over the Rams in Australia, analyzing how travel schedules impacted Week 1, and discussing key takeaways from Thursday night. Then, Geoff and Will dive into their 5 Best Bets: locking in their 5 best NFL sides of the week, featuring hot takes on Browns vs. Jaguars, Vikings vs. Packers, Cowboys vs. Giants, Chiefs vs. Broncos, and Colts vs. Ravens. Finally, they wrap up with quick-hit college football picks ahead of massive matchups like Texas vs. Ohio State. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and drop your Week 1 predictions in the comments below.

It's Friday, September 11th. Welcome into the Schwartz Football Show. Jeff Schwartz here, Mitch Schwartz, off this Friday, but I'm joined now by Will Hill. Should have a bit more podcast. Also, a contributing member on Bear Betts and other stuff that we do. We text all the time about gambling. I think I actually Will might gamble on more things than I do,

which is pretty impressive, Will. So welcome to the show. Thanks for having me. I'm a little disappointed. I missed Mitch. I got a bunch of golf questions I wanted to ask him, but I guess maybe, you know, another time. He does not bet on golf.

It doesn't have been, my goal, my two goals for him this year for the podcast, because it's new, you know, we're working together now, is that he watched more college football because he, like, all he'll watch tomorrow was Texas, Ohio State, like maybe. And then, again, maybe gambling. But I told him what we're doing today, you should never do, which is bet NFL sides. So what we're going to do, we've done this now for, I think it's eighth year in a row, Will, is we pick five sides like we're doing a contest. I know you're in a contest, I believe, on the NFL side. I will play a contest as well. We're going to pick our five sides. of the week. This is a exercise we like doing because we go through all the games. Exeterize we may or may not be good at, just FYI. Tail faded your own risk.

NFL sides are the hardest in all of gambling and all wagering to get right each and every week. And so we'll go through them. We'll end up with five here at the end. Will, before you go in here, any thoughts on the Niners' dominant performance last night? It's kind of a non-football point. And I know, look, week one,

you see some weird things. You think back to like there was a Packer Saints game a few years ago when Rogers was there where they got absolutely destroyed the game. I think got moved to Jacksonville and it was like, wow, Rogers is washed up. Packers are going to stay. I think the Packers got the one C and Rogers, one MVP. Last year, Patriots, you know, losing at home to the Raiders. Weird things happened in week one. But that was a pretty startling performance from the Rams. They did not look good. But my big takeaway, it was hard to get into the game, Jeff, being, you know, 9, 10 o'clock at night and it's bright out. It's like in the morning there. That was just a weird vibe to it. And I thought the Rams kind of got to, a bad break. It looked like at 177

Naku was in the end zone. And then the next play, it looked like Stafford was in the end zone and they somehow didn't get a touchdown on either. It's 177. Niners have the ball. And then they go on the long drive touchdown and the game is over. But I wouldn't panic, but you know what? Stafford 38 looked, didn't look great. How much of that is age?

How much of that is the travel situation? We'll see. I would imagine they'll get back on track, but that was somewhat alarming there from the Rams last night. Do you like to make a commentary on the travel schedule of the Rams or shrew really like to rest the internet. Because that look,

for those who missed it, we talked about us with Mitch and I. So the Niners went out about a week early to Australia. The Rams went out the day before. And the Rams idea is that it's easier for them to acclimate coming back home on their schedule. The Niners, who will, in theory, take longer to get back

onto West Coast time when they return. And the Rams should be able to recover a little bit better. They looked a little more sluggish. in this game. It is. It looked a little bit tired. Niners looked fresh. They were playing faster.

Now, Miles Garrett, I don't think it's 100%. That put a role in the Rams' lack of defense last night. Miles Garrett, by the way, look, I'm all for the PFF and the charting and all that stuff. But the idea he had no pressures is not correct. He had plenty of pressures. He wasn't his usual self, though, hitting the quarterback. I thought the game plan for the Niners was absolutely fantastic from Shanahan. So good for them.

but I think it played a factor in this game. I don't think teams are going to do this again quite the same way that the Rams did. Yeah, and the Rams, what was it? Last year they went to Jacksonville, they played Jacksonville in London, and I know it's a different country, but they did the same sort of plan

where let's get in late, let's get out, and let's try to just reacclimate that way. And they bury Jacksonville. So these are all small sample sizes. I agree the Rams look sluggish, but no matter what happened, Jeff, you know how this goes in the media, people were going to play the results.

If the Rams had won, people would say the Rams did it right. Of course. If the 49ers won, people are going to say the 49ers did it right. Just how it's going to go. Do you have a play on the game last night? I took Niners plus four and a half because the bartender was on the Rams and I hated every second of it. I hated it so much.

For those who are new here, I don't know if I ever talk about the bartender or buddy Sammy Pee, who we do podcasts with. He has a guy that is a literal bartender in Chicago. And he's just the most average Joe. He just gives out, he tells him, text Sammy, yo, I'm taking the Rams minus 30. because they're just a super team and they're better. And the idea is to fade the bartender. And it works.

You make a lot of money fade the bartender. It's sometimes better to find a fade than it is like making your own wagers. And I hated it. Well, I hated being the 90s plus four and a half. But bartender struck again, man. Yeah, you got to. Look, if you're going to bet the NFL and you're going to win, not that I'm sitting here with a bunch of contests wins,

the NFL are hitting, you know, 60, 70 percent. But I just know from years of doing this, you got to take some of these ugly dogs. You got to take some of these quarterbacks you don't want to take. if it were as simple as just betting on Patrick Mahomes and Josh and Allen every week, you know what, it'd be easy to bet. We'd all have a lot of money. It's just, it's not that easy. But I did have the 49ers gave that out of my Fox Sports column.

I just thought, you know, it's easy. First off, when these two coaches collide, usually taking the points is the way to go. It's been an underdog sort of matchup. The underdogs do well. And it's easy to forget for all the talk of Seattle and the Rams. The 49ers had a home game last year on that Saturday night, week 18, to win the division and be the one seed.

So I thought that was the right way to go in terms of taking the points. So I have some extra money. Maybe we can roll into our week this week. We have 14 games left to talk about. We obviously had the one on Wednesday night with that ugly Seattle and Patriots game. But Seattle wins that one 13 to 10. That pushed if you had a three. Depends what number you got if you maybe won on New England there plus three and a half.

Let's start out with Will. The slate on Sunday is kind of up and down. Not the best games. But the Saints are on the road. Excuse me, the Saints. Yeah, Saints are on the road at Detroit. Detroit's a favorite of seven points. total 49 and a half.

Any thoughts on this one? It looks a little light. I feel like there's a lot of hype for the Saints where, yeah, they played well at the end of the year last year, but a lot of that was against a week schedule. Detroit's still obviously very good in the skill guys. I don't know about their secondary. I don't know about their offensive line.

And that's a team with golf. You need a good offensive line because golf is not going to escape pressure. My past, I think Detroit's a good teaser leg would lean towards the Saints plus the 7 just because I don't want to lay a score more than a score in week one. my play here, Jameson Williams over 56 and a half receiving yards.

He's been a guy. People have been waiting for him in the fantasy community to emerge. Great player in college. You know, high pick, a lot of talent, kind of a little bit of reputation as a headcase. But if you look, Jeff, the last six games from Thanksgiving on last year, his receiving totals, 144,

134, 90, 76, 70. And there was one stinker on Christmas, the game golf through all those interceptions. I think the emergence is here. I don't know that that number is properly factoring it in. I'll go Jameson Williams over receiving yards. I like that. He's due for like a breakout year, it feels like.

And this might be the start of it. He's healthy. He's ready to go. I, you know, the Saints, they're not an overly talented team, right? That's my thing with the same. Everyone loves the Saints this year. Like, oh, they're going to, Tyler Shuck,

and he did well last year, but I don't know, well, I don't think they're overly, the lines are better almost everywhere, and they're healthy for once, which is super important. And obviously, in the secondary, there's injuries with the monitor if those guys will be back this week or not. But it does feel like the Lions, if they won this game, what the Lions do is they win games by 30 or lose games. Like those are the two options it feels like.

What surprised you if this was a 21-point Lions win, probably not. No, it wouldn't. It's Week 1. Very little would surprise me. Yeah, week 1. Just remember, don't overreact to week 1. All right, next up a game here in my backyard here. Bears on the road, and they're playing the Panthers here.

your Panthers are getting three points, total 47. A half. I like the over in this game. I'm going to bet probably every bear's over until otherwise, just because their defense is atrocious, and I think the Panthers can do enough. But Will, do the Panthers plus three entice you here? It would only be Panthers.

These are teams, I think, both kind of look in a fade. Bears had a lot of close wins, a lot of comeback wins, a lot of one-score games, a ton of turnovers that you figure they can't sustain. But they got a good coach, a good quarterback. I just, Carolina, as you know, Jeff, they didn't exactly, even though they won the division,

they almost won it by default. They weren't exactly dominant. A lot of close wins for them, too. If I had to bet anything, I would go with another prop. Caleb Williams over, I think is 231.5. You know, Ben Johnson, the coach is talking a big game. We're going to break records. We're going to score all these points.

Well, if you're going to do that, Carolina was 23rd in the league, yards per attempt against it in terms of the past defense. Figure Caleb Williams can get in the two-thirties there. I'd lean over on him, lean towards taking the points, but don't have to bet every game week one. This will not be one on betting. You don't like the Panthers plus three?

I thought you would like the Panthers plus three in this one. I definitely don't like the Bears. I mean, look, the thing about what I hope we see this year is that there's just more, more of the traditional wagers in the NFL win. And like, this is one of them that I think in the past has won. And I hope it can win moving forward. forward. I'm not saying, like, you have to take the Panthers, but like, this is a wager that just has won more often than not, right? And so I'm hoping that it can, it can be that case, that case here. They're retiring Brian St. Pierre's jersey before the game. I don't know if

that affects your handicap in the game. So when I was at the Panthers in 2010, Brian St. Pierre came in on a Tuesday and was our quarterback. on Sunday. We played the Ravens. The Ravens just beat us as best you can beat us. They kicked their ass. And Will you, did you, you said you wager on that game? I had the Ravens. And my handicap was, you know what, I seen this kid playing college. He was just off the streets. Ravens still had it. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, they're going to have to get some turnovers. They're going to win, you know, and maybe they had, at my age, I was, you know, early 20s, mid-20s. I had a little bartender in anywhere, you know, maybe a little square of taking the favorites. But I thought it was the right

side. And it was a close game pretty late until all hell broke, hell broke loose and Ravens turned them over a couple times, ran one of them back for a touchdown. Maybe a second one. I don't remember there was a lateral play, but eventually, eventually my handicap got home. Yeah, it was, it was, it was actually close. It was 2013. Then we threw back-to-back pick sixes. And the game went very much a different direction. So no Brian St. Pierre on Sunday for the Panthers. I think this is the first game that we both like. And I hate myself for liking this one, Will. Browns, Jacksonville. Jacksonville favored by eight and a half. Total four, it's going to be 39 and a half. Browns plus eight and a half. Browns plus eight and a half. Yes, no. Maybe so. Lost you for a second. Can you just recap what you said for a second? Sorry. Sorry. Browns's Jaguars. Yes. Brown's getting eight and a half. I feel like begrudgingly. Browns was eight and a half is making the card. I like the Browns. I should rephrase that. I bet the Browns. I just think that's a lot. I just think that's a lot. I just think that's a lot. I'm a lot. I just think that's a lot. of points for a game where a total of 39 and a half, 40.

And I actually like the Browns two through 53. I think they're receivers, the rookie receivers sound like they kind of hit on those two guys with Concepcion in Boston. Judkins at running back, fanning at tight end. That's not a bad group of skill guys if you can get anything out of Watson. I know that's a big if. 71 in his career against the Jags, if that's worth anything to you. Jacksonville, is that a great offensive line?

I'm not sure. Jack Debtiville's another team, Jeff, forced a lot of turnovers last year. 31 takeaways. when you're getting two turnovers a game, your defense is going to look a lot better. I don't know if that's sustainable. I'll plug my nose here and take Cleveland plus the points. So Survivor this week is going to be a heavy dose of Jacksonville and the Chargers, right?

The Chargers host, Arizona, we'll get that game in a little bit. Which of the two teams, Jacksonville or the Chargers would be the one to lose this weekend? It would be Jacksonville, right? I would think it would be Jacksonville just because, you know, maybe Watson turns back the clock and it's a low toll. And I just think if Arizona is going to cover, it's more of like a backdoor scenario. I don't know that they have the defense to actually pull it off.

I think with a low total, you know what, Lawrence turns it over a couple of times. I could see a scenario where Watson and Cleveland, everyone's trash in them all summer and they come out. And wow, Cleveland's up 14 to 3. What's going on in that game? I could certainly see that. Not that I'm predicting it,

but I do like Cleveland plus the points. Wouldn't be shocked if they pulled an upset. It'd be shocking, but it wouldn't be that big of a. shock. So Browns plus eight and a half in the queue so far. Ravens hosting, excuse me not hosting at the Colts here. Colts are getting three and a half total 47. Can I be honest, Will, I, I just feel like I don't ever care about the Colts. And maybe I should. I just, I just, I just kind of like, I just kind of like, I just don't know. I just like, well, I'm the three and a again three and a half. I just feel like I never bet Colts games. I don't know. Do you have a good idea what the Colts are? No, I kind of, I know

what you mean about them. I would only look at the Colts here. I think the Ravens continue year after year to get so much respect. I mean, they're 11 and a half in terms of the win total. I mean, they missed the playoffs last year. Now they're just going to bounce back in win 12 games, maybe. But Lamar is a year older, a step slower it looked like. Maybe that was just a one year thing and it was injuries and he's going to bounce back.

But I think there's some pieces on defense that have gotten a little older, Humphrey and guys like that. Remember, Andy was 8 and 2 lighting the league on fire. They lost a close game to the Chiefs in overtime. and then Jones got hurt and they never won another game. I think Indy's probably a little undervalued here. I'd want the three and a half. It's been ping pong back and forth between three, three and a half.

You got to get the best of the number as we saw the other day, Patriot Seahawks, that hook, especially on three matters. But it would be Colts or nothing for me. Do you have any Colts futures? No. I don't either. I had last year, you'll appreciate this. I had Jim Bob Cooter, the offensive coordinator for assistant of the year,

at like 175 to 1. And he got down to the short shot at like 2 to 1 when they were lighting the league on fire. And of course, we know how that goes. Yeah, I mean, CLV is, well, that's not really CLV. That's just a good bet. Okay, it's a good question. So closing line of value is something we talk about.

So if you get like three and a half and it closes at two and a half, the NFL is a big deal. If you've had three and a half. Right. Do you consider CLV on long shots like that? Like I don't. To me, that's not CLV. It just means you got a good number, but like,

it doesn't hit, it doesn't, it just doesn't, I don't know if that's, do you consider that CLV? I don't consider what I just talked about, CLV. I'll consider this CLV because it's, the number just changed because games are happening. That's not closing line because closing line to your point,

you bet the number and the number moved before anything happened. That's not the case with what I described. Here's CLV. I bet Stribling 65 to 1 offensive rookie of the year. Before any games were played, he's 10 to 1. To me, that's CLV. And we know how that's going to go with the injury right off the bat. But no, I don't think for like awards, futures, as the season goes on and the numbers change,

that's not necessarily CLV. To your point, it's just a good number. So he presumably tore his Achilles, right? I think it's an ankle. Shanahan said it's an ankle as Achilles intact. Okay, great. Good for him. Falcons at the Steelers, Steelers are at five and a half.

This number was two and a half on Monday, I think, before they announced Tua going to play. and then Tua's hurt now and he might not play is the Steelers just taking him five and a half too easy here. I don't, I don't know, man. If the Falcons start Jack Strand, they're not going to score in this game. Tua, this just in, Tua is out for the game. It's going to be Cooper Rush starting, it looks like,

but Tua is out. Is there really that much of a difference between Tua and Cooper Rush at this stage of Tua's career? Probably not. It's why the number is not going to move at all, right? I mean, it did, though. I mean, we were three, three and a half yesterday. It's gone down a couple points.

My bet here before all of this news and before the two injury was Falcons team total under 19. And that's moved. The juice is higher. And now I don't even know if I have a downgraded quarterback, that probably still be how I look. Even if it's 17.5, 18, 19, kind of dead numbers. Would lean Falcons team total under would lean under for the game. I'm not laying that kind of number, though, with Pittsburgh. I'm not sure when I'm getting on offense.

I think it'll be kind of a close, low-scoring, ugly game. 41.5 here is a total in this game. The Falcons team total right now. As you mentioned it, it is, here we go. 17.5 now. I'd still go under, but I'm telling you, I like Rush. I think I like Rush more than Tua. Maybe that's crazy.

Maybe it'll look stupid on Sunday. But I don't think there's some massive gap with this version of Tua we're seeing. Never looked stupid before. So this will be, this will be no. Correct. People have no idea. Yes. All right.

A great game on Sunday. Buffalo Bills at the Houston, Texans. Houston, short home dog here, plus one and a half. Again, you can shop for numbers. There's probably better numbers. We don't have a sponsor on this show for gambling. So if you find a better number, Will or you're listening right now. Yeah.

I'm using consensus line right now. I like Houston in this one. It's more just like of a phase not the right word, but are we sure Joe Brady's an upgrade over Sean McDermott? Like, are we absolutely sure that that's the case? Houston's defense is so good. Offensively, they're improved in the offensively. They're improved at running back.

Stroud obviously has to play very well this season, and in wins he does and losses, he does not. Will, so I would lean toward Houston here. Any thoughts on this one? Yeah, and a brutal start to the schedule for Houston. I think it's bills, chargers, Colts, Cowboys to start the year. That is not very easy if you're Houston. With you, I lean Houston, I think it won one and a half.

It's a good teaser leg. My play here that I wrote up was James Cook over receiving yards. Now, the numbers moved here, but I just think it has, and I wrote it up 13.5 on Tuesday when I wrote it, and it's been given out by some services. 18.5 now? Yeah, I'd still go over just because I think the pass rush, Alan's 104 in his career against Houston, that ferocious pass rush is giving them a hard time. And I just think the easiest way to offset that is to just quick screen passes, swing passes,

his dump-offs. I could see Cook catching, you know, three or four balls for 25, 28 yards, something like that. Maybe he busts a big one and he gets even more. But Cook is kind of a safety valve to offset the pass rush is my angle. So lean Texans,

lean Texans on a teaser. And I like Cook to have a nice game here through the air. It's a great idea here. I'm playing Cook over. And I see, yeah, I mean, look, in the prop market, you know, a problem moving three yards is not that big of a deal. Now, if you're going from, you know,

eight and a half to 11.5, maybe it's a problem, right? But if you have, you know, if you have an over, it's 57 and a half, it moves to 60, probably not as big of a concern. But if you think Cook's

going to have three or four catches, it makes sense to play this no matter what, you know, the number is at the moment. All right. Bucks at Bengals here. Bengals were by three and a half.

Does I feel like too many points? It would be under or nothing for me just because if we've learned anything from the first two games, Jeff. And the week one has been an under week, the first, you know, for the first week,

these last couple years where you get rid of the one preseason game and you're down to three. It's just hard to get to 51. These offenses aren't in sync. They're just a little disjointed. 51 is a big, big number. And especially, you know, these guys don't play together that much in the preseason. I know since he's played a little bit more the last couple years after being notorious for slow starts, under 50, 50.5 or 51.5 would be the only way I go, but haven't actually played it.

Yeah. I know I think Joe Burrow overrushing is a, is a, It was a wager I saw given out by a smart group this week. So if you're into something in this game, maybe you go Joe Burr over Russian healthier now this year and on the move. All right, next game. We're running out of games here, Will, to choose, by the way. Come off with five.

Jets and Titans. We have a rule. We can just pass on a game if we want to. We don't have to talk about every game. I don't mind the Jets. Similar to the Browns. I actually think they're two through 53 is a little improved. Maybe Gino Smith behind what was,

what should be a better offensive line. Last year was a disaster for the Raiders. I think there's more talent on the Jets team. I thought their draft is okay. How about this for a play, though? Just play the do theory. Over 0.5 interceptions. Cam Ward will throw an interception.

They had zero last year. The Jets, they're due to get one, maybe a little more emphasis on ball hawking. The streak finally ends. The Jets get an interception. I lean towards them winning, but you know what? You could have gotten plus three all summer.

Now you're going to take them at like a pick-em. I'm not doing that. That's not the way to win. But I'll say the Jets, getting interception here, but no side or total for me. The Jets, I think you're right. They're better overall, but can't wear any good. I don't, I think he stinks.

That sort of feels very clear. So, but I don't like Gino either. I do not like Aaron Glenn as a coach. I would, I just can't back Aaron Glenn on the road in a spot where, you know, we think that they could end up winning this game. All right, next one up here, Moon afternoon slate. Cardinals, Chargers, Chargers favor by nine and a half here, Will. thought on this one.

Well, there were some value on the Cardinals here, but the line came down from 10, and a half, 10, and I could see this being a situation. Backdoor, you know, it's 34, 17, and Brissette's going down the field, and it gets a touchdown and it lands 34, 24, so don't take the nine and a half. This is one I'd actually lean over. I think Arizona's actually got a bunch of good skill guys, should be representative on offense. And remember last year, they lost a lot of close games, and then they had a million

injuries. I don't think they're that bad, although I don't think they're winning many games this year with that schedule, but they should be bad on defense, though. lean over still lean towards Arizona but I don't want to take the wrong side of a key number here. I like Omari and Hampton over 15 and a half rush attempts. You think about

what the Chargers want to be offensively with Harbaugh and with McDaniel. They're going to run football. That's what their identity is going to want to be well. So I think over 50 half rush times for the number one running back. You're healthy at tackle now. Obviously, Senator, you had an injury. We get that. But it does feel like a great opportunity here

to take Hampton who, you know, 20 rush attempt range. is probably about where and also you have to think about gameplay right if they're winning in this game late he gets a lot more carries right so um more i have to over 15 and a half carries is the way i played this game and wrote that up for for fox sports urn the week eagles commanders this number is jumped now but it's the eagles heard by six points now total 44 and a half any thought's to eagles commanders amazing this is the nfc title game same team same venue as just what 18 months ago it doesn't feel possible.

I think Bear brought up this point. It's a good angle. Washington team total is 19.5. I like under. Philly is going to take the ball. These long drives, eat clock, play keep away.

Can Washington block Philly? I'm not sure. No tuntle for Washington. No Marriota for Washington, which usually you don't think about the backup quarterback, but one of the chances Jaydon Daniels makes it through all 17 games. I just don't know that Washington,

with that offensive line versus the front floor of Philly can sustain drives. And again, Philly probably keeps the ball. in terms of the time of possession and just choose the clock. I think Bear was on to something there that Washington team total on there. I like that still. It's still up there too. That number might move down a point before kickoff.

All right. Dolphins Raiders, Raiders favored by three in this game. Total 40 and a half. Yeah. The dolphins stink. They're so bad will. Not good at football. But the Raiders, they didn't three against anybody.

This, oh, I don't. I don't know. Any thoughts on this one? No Bowers, too. And by the way, they sat on that Bowers, dude, because he had surgery. You know, 10 days ago, they didn't, it didn't come out until a week or so later. I know people were making case for him long shot, you know, offensive player of the year, which is tough for a tight end to win and season long prop stuff. That obviously matters. No side or total for me.

How about Willis over rush yards at 38 and a half or so? Two starts last year. He had 40 and he had 50. There's not a lot of weapons to throw to. He's athletic. He can call his own number. Willis, to me, going over his rush prop is how in a lot. to play this. Yeah, I think, I think overrushing for him most games is how you should play him,

right? Because he's not going to throw the ball all that well, I don't think. And like he's, you know, my will has taken, it's been sort of the same thing for a while now. Like, it's, it's hard to just become a starter at essentially year six when you haven't been a starter at all. It's going to be a big change for him. And, you know, can he do this now full time and do this with a bad roster. Again, their coach said the other day, wins and losses are important this season. What's important is important is player development. That is, that's what you say if you're like, you know, you're Charles Huff at Memphis this season. You're like, yeah, you know, it's like player development. That's our goal this year. That's a probably bad example because of two and oh.

But like, I just like, I just, it's not what you say in the NFL. It's little league baseball stuff. Hey, we're, we're, uh, we're o and four, but you guys, you know, you played hard and you had fun and we get ice cream after the game. Yeah, I'm with you. how's your how's your son's uh literally oh which one he's doing he's doing fall ball he's doing flag football uh between all the kids and all the events man it's just it's like a full time job job just being like a taxi driver driving them but so far so good i was uh i was at uh polandis today tuesday's my fronies day and i was talking to her about like when my kids go to college we'll travel and she said yeah a friend of mine just did that and like

and she's really sad that like she misses the the three to seven rush every day with the kids. I'm like, I don't think I'll miss that. Yes. Just the taxi drive. It's a lot of taxi cabin. And my son has even started to fall baseball yet, really. They haven't even played a game yet.

So we're getting there, buddy. It's amazing how intense it is. I know things have changed, but these long practices, you know, he had one day the other day where he's going from fielding practice on one field for an hour. Then we drive them to some other field. They take hitting practice. Like, you're not in the professionals. It's not double A baseball.

Is you playing? kids are 10 years old. Is he playing rec ball or is it travel? It's travel. Well, that's why. Yeah. I'm avoid to travel.

The wreck ball is a disaster. The wreck ball, it's, I know. That's a problem. Yes. So like I'm like anti-travel ball, but we have excellent little league here.

So like I can get my, yeah, a lot of work done in Little League, but I'm getting the point of my daughter, I think has got to go travel ball fairly soon because she just needs reps to pitch, man. I'm like, you just not going to get enough in Little League.

All right. We only got three games left here. I think we have one. that we like rate, and that's the brown. So we'll see here. All right. You're Vikings. We'll also a Vikings fan.

Vikings, minus one and a half hosting the Packers here. I think this Minnesota side's been like hammered by Sharps all summer. Yeah. And now they're favored. Money line is minus 125 in this one. Kyler Murray starting for the Vikings. My Packers take has been the same thing for two, three years now.

The boringest good team ever. Like who are the playmakers? Micah Parch is not playing. who are the Packers, you're a Vikings fan. Who are you worried about wrecking the game for your, your Vikings team on the Green Bay Packers? No, it's a valid concern. There's really not that guy that really scares you.

I like Minnesota because if you read about Green Bay, not only Jacobs out, Parsons out, some questions on the offensive line. You know, who's going to play? Guys are beat up. Guys are inexperienced. It's just not a good offensive line. That's the wrong guy, the wrong team to be facing in Minnesota. That's a loud building.

I know Green Bay Travolving. travels well there, which is a factor. But Flores is going to put you coming off the bus. He's going to put you from different angles, different looks. And if you got to shake you offensive line, love is going to be under pressure a lot. And I just think, you know, it's something we talked about. You've heard it all summer, but I think it's worth, you know, repeating when you're talking about the Vikings, they went 98 with Brasmer, McCarthy, and Wentz.

I don't care what you think of Murray. That's a massive upgrade. I think Minnesota gets the win. This is one of my plays. So the Packers, it's worth noting, like, their offense has deteriorated pretty fast will. Like, if they were really good for so many years, it's not good. Their offense line just isn't good anymore. And right on the road, week one, I don't think they're one of the groups that played much in the preseason.

So like, you know, that's just a, it just feels like a tough spot to put them in. And how confident is Minnesota going to be with an actual competent quarterback? Right. Like that, that's such a big difference for them. Feels a little bit like Darnold two years ago. Now everything two years ago broke their way until it didn't late in the year. But it's, I feel like it's been this way with Vikings for a while. Back to when you were in the league when they had far of it was always the Vikings have a good roster.

they just need a quarterback. There's been a lot of Vikings teams like that over the years. And when you don't have a quarterback, you can spend a lot of years looking for one. I feel the same way. The roster, the skill guys, offensive line, there's a lot of pieces there. It's just, can you get even average play from the quarterback?

All right. My favorite side of the week, I think it's your favorite side of the week, or at least one of them we've done on Bear Betts. You want to check out a separate podcast that we do together. The Cowboys are laying three on the road against the Giants. Quite simply, they're so much better than the Giants, Will. Like, they're just so much better than the Giants.

And there's no home for advantage of life, none whatsoever. You have a new coaching staff. I don't love necessarily love, you know, John Harbaugh and Matt Nagy. I got a Cowboys team with a defense that's vastly better than it was entering last season. I like the Cowboys here, Lay in three. That's a pick I'm going to make here. Yeah, and Harbaugh, it's an interesting dynamic between the Ravens fans or said, hey, don't let the door hit you.

See you later. this act got tired and he's lecturing the media at the Giants, you know, given press conferences. And the Giants fans are so excited. They think he's the savior. So we'll see how that plays out. Maybe it works out for both sides. Maybe the Ravens need to change. Maybe the Giants, he's going to be a welcome addition there.

But I'm with you. The Cowboys just have so many more weapons. We'll see what version of neighbors you get who's coming off the injury. Outside of that, there's not that many guys that's scary. I think Dow is going to be much improved defensively. Caleb Downs was a monster in college. I'm surprised he fell that far on the draft. and all these teams passed on him.

I think, and Dak Prescott in his career, 14 and 3 against the Giants. One of those losses, Jeff, week 18 last year, he threw 10 passes and came out of the game. They didn't care about the game. So he's owned the Giants.

I feel like we've seen this matchup every year on opening night, like every other year for like 12 years. I played in 2015. Ooh, that was the one. Dallas came back late and won by like a point. I've never told you the story of that game? No.

Okay. So we're up three with about two minutes left. We have the ball at the four yard line. All right. The Cowboys, I think, have two timeouts left. And Tom caught, we're at the four. And Eli comes to the huddle and goes, hey, coach told us not to score a touchdown. So make sure that you just fall down before you get to the end zone. Up three? Up three. And we were like, okay, so Rasha Jennings just like took the ball. And sure, I have it right here.

So it's now, it's okay. So after the two minute of warning, Calbas had two timeouts left. He runs the ball for two yards and falls down essentially. Dallas calls a timeout, okay? Same thing again. We're at the, we're at the two yard line. Don't score.

Rashaw Jennings goes one yard and falls down again. Dallas calls her second timeout. Then we pass the ball. You let those an incomplete pass. So now we kick a field goal. Now we're up six and they go down to the field and score touchdown and win the game. What?

What, what, why can we go up 10 with two minutes left? What's the problem with that? That's very bizarre. I remember watching that game. I remember Dallas won by a point. Boy, that's what happened. That seems like a strange one. Angers have ever been after a game.

I threw my home and scored the game when he touched down, I want to say. Yes. Yes, yes, yes. One rule, as we get to the season that you guys should know about, it's important to note this. Never kick to go up six. Oh, yeah. Now, if you're fourth and 27, you have to,

fourth and 12, like, I get it. But any opportunity you have to go to go for a fourth down, you must do it. And here I'll tell you the reason why. One is we steal the time the teams lose. But like, we saw this with Georgia Tech and Colorado the other night, too. Remember the first game on Thursday? They kicked to go up six and Colorado came back down.

think about the mentality of an offense in this situation. So if you're only down three as an offense, I'm telling you, we're trying to score a touchdown still, and we settle for a field goal, right? And you're more apt to settle for a field goal when you're down three, then you would be obviously,

you can't be down six. So down six, you also get an extra down, because you're going four to fourth down. You get four downs to get ten. And so you're just, so the idea is the same. you're trying to score touchdown, but if you're only up three,

you're set up for a field goal. Okay, fine, tie game. If you're up six, you're down six dollars, so you're going for it. The whole time you get four downs to get 10 yards. It's a terrible strategy. So don't do it anymore.

Okay. Last game, Will. So I think we have three so far that we love. Broncos chiefs, chiefs, theater now by two and a half, total of 43 and a half. Forever, Patrick Mahomes under three points. Yes. Auto bet.

Is it still an auto bet, Will? No, and there's reasons to be concerned, and you can match. You talk about who's blocking Benito and questions on the Chiefs offensive line, questions about the Chiefs weapons. I'll be stubborn. Chiefs last year, one in nine and one score games. It's still Mahomes. It's still Andy Reid.

We'll see what version of Mahomes it is. But Mahomes at home under a field, well, you know, you could have built a mansion since Mahomes came to his career. If you're just betting that kind of angle, I'll stick with it. Don't feel great about it. I can understand the Broncos is a teaser leg. You figure it'll be a close game. These matchups are usually low scoring. But I'll begrudgingly here go with Mahom.

under a field ball. Well, you don't convince me to take the Chiefs. Do you think that what we saw with New England on Thursday plays a factor in this game, and let me tell you what I'm thinking about. So we sort of heard all offseason like, you know, the Patriot was good last season because their schedule, right? And Drake May, like, just, I don't really know if he's the best quarterback we think he is. And the same as we said about Denver, very famously, Sean Payne agrees with me.

do you think there's any of that in this game? Like the Broncos just, they're starting from scratch from last season. They might not be as good as they were because of their 11-1 score wins last season and game one, that regression just hits them super hard. Like it's very possible. I think it's very possible.

And Peyton's a good coach. And I would imagine, this is why I like the teaser. I would imagine this is pretty close. Low scoring comes down to the wire. Even when the Chiefs, you know, for years have won these games. A lot of them have been close. And two years ago, the ball bounced their way.

They got all that luck in close games. Last year completely went the opposite. They're one in nine. Figure this year probably falls back in the middle. But post game, low scoring, I'll go with the Chiefs win. Do I feel great about it? No. But I'll trust Mahomes here to get it done.

15 and a half of Moves rushing prop, by the way. Boy, I know he's usually in the 30s. It's adjusted. Is he really going to be looking to run first start off the ACL? I'm not sure. Maybe just instincts kick in and he gets a couple when he goes over. I'd look towards the under, though, if anything. I think any, I think any Kenneth Walker, like rush attempts, rushing, combined,

rushing, rushing, receiving yards. I think they're going to run him and use him to death. I mean, why pay for the player if you're not going to use him? All right, well, we got four. I think we got four. So we've got to find one more. I'll list the four out to you. Cleveland plus eight and a half, Vikings minus one and a half.

Dallas minus three, Kansas City minus two and a half. Are those the four that we agree upon? Yes. Let's find one more here. Okay. So I wrote down like the maybe, sort of the maybes that we have. There's some three and a halfs with the Colts.

I'm looking at Draft Kings, three and a half minus one 15. You like Indy? You don't force me to watch the Colts game this weekend? Three and a half. It's just, man. Do you watch the games you bet on? Yeah.

Okay. Because our buddy Randy just put out a Villanova plus 30 and a half for tonight. So I guess I'm watching Villanoa Louisville. I wonder what the angle there, the lack of rest? Because that's a quick turnaround to go from playing late Sunday night day before Labor Day to, man, you're turning around and playing Friday.

Maybe they're a little sleepy. I'm not sure. I don't ask them questions. Yeah. On that, on that. Maybe it's because, oh, they have SMU next week. That's why. Okay. Makes sense.

Yeah. That's why I'm taking, I got Oregon State this week plus 26 and a half for this exact reason, because they play Texas Tech goes score Valis, very weird matchup. And then Texas Tech plays Houston next week on Friday. Like, how hard is Tech going to play in this game? Yeah, that's a good point. I don't care about this game at all. All right.

So we have one more. You want Colts plus three and a half? Yes. Okay. What could go wrong? It should be easy. It should be an easy five and O.

NFL is just so easy to be. So we have Deshawn Watson and Daniel Jones, but then we also get Dak, Mahomes, and Kyler Murray. So those are our five. Will any college football quickly, because this will be out on Friday, maybe Saturday morning,

favorite college football plays of the week. What do we got? I think Michigan keeps a, close. I think to us versus the world mentality all week, I think maybe you see Carr a quarterback close, low scoring game maybe a little bit of an overreacted. Maybe it's possible, you know what, Florida State, we did this

with them two years ago where it just kept waiting for hey, they're going to play better. Don't overreact, don't overreact. And you know what? We're underreacting because Florida State was terrible. Maybe that happens with Michigan, maybe they're just not that good, but I'll take a shot with Michigan as a home dog. Oh, man. It's the only side to take in this game.

I found Underwood over 10-half rush attempts. That's what I played in this one. It was on a prediction market. They haven't put them up yet. I don't think on domestic books yet for rush attempts. Oh, it's actually up now. Yeah, it's still 11 plus.

He ran nine times this game last year. They have to use his legs. Yes. They have to use his legs. So Underwood over 10 and a half rush attempts is the play in this one for me. Quickly, I put this out on Twitter, but I'll just reiterate this now. These are repeat of bare bets, but I like Purdue, getting three and a half at home against Wake.

Penn State on the road, minus 23.5. against Temple, Minnesota, plus one and a half at home against Mississippi State. Nebraska is laying nearly 30 will. Bowling Green is maybe the worst team in the country. Like, this is going to be 55 to 7. Took the Beavers and took UCLA over 55 and a half. Did you, yesterday, put anything on Miami against Fam U? I had first half, which was nice.

And somebody who had Miami Futures last year, why couldn't they have played FMU in the title game? That would have been nice to get that one home. But it should be a good week. Ohio State, Texas, Michigan, see if they bounce back in Oklahoma. It's, uh, anything in that game in Texas and Ohio State?

Usually big games like that. I look first half under, just figure a little feeling out process early. But both quarterbacks were so bad last year and you have that game in your head. You wonder if this year, you know, it's a little bit different. Let me do this because I like these bets because you don't know who's going to start with the ball. Minus 1.45, but you get a half a point with Ohio State in the first

quarter. Maybe it's 3-3, maybe it's 7-7, maybe it's scoreless. Maybe Ohio State has a lead. In a game that's a toss-up, I'll lay $1.45 to get that half a point in what is a 15-minute games. Okay. All right. That's a, I'll be out tomorrow during, I do when with this. I will be out during the game tomorrow, Oregon's game at noon. They play Oklahoma State and the dude. My daughter is a softball game at 12. I'm coaching the game. I'm the head coach.

Is it okay for me to have my iPad set up in the dugout somewhere with the organ game on? It's just take a peak ski every now and then. Yes, it's perfectly okay. It's part of your job. And you're an alum. Come on. It is part of my job. So, all right, Will, thank you so much.

I should have been more podcast, check it out. How many days a week, the pond? Monday, Monday, Wednesday, Friday. Check it out. Fantastic. All right, guys. Take care. We'll talk to you guys on Tuesday with my brother. Have a weekend. I want to enjoy the football.