Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - NFL Week 4 Best Bets

Episode Date: October 2, 2026

Geoff Schwartz reunites with Producer Matt to seek an elusive 5-0 week... or at least not go 0-5… again.

It is Friday, October 2nd. I'm Jeff Schwartz. That is Matt Ford. This is Schwartz football show. We have so much to get to. We're going to give you our five wagers of the week. We're doing this. The same cycle appears, okay, guys.

It's that we do this on Friday. I get so excited. Here's our five picks the week. Matt, what do I do by Sunday? Five minutes into our first window of action. I text Matt and say, we're screwed. Now we now we go one and four. I text Matt on Monday.

I'm quitting. I'm quitting the show on Fridays. And by time, we get back to Friday. I'm ready to do it again. We're going to go through all the games as we normally do, pick out five sides. I'll give you some props along the way. I like some props this week. But first, Matt, how are you doing, buddy?

How's life? I'm good, man. I'm good. I'm, you know, devastated that we once again slogged our way to one and four. Yeah, not great. Yeah, but, you know, I'm good, man. Who's got it better than us? I will not bet on Maryland this week, I promise you.

Yeah, don't do that anymore. I will not do that anymore. We've had a lot of loyal listeners that have stuck around this show for many years, many different versions of this show. And we're glad you guys are here. It's all going to pay off in about a month, okay? I'm just letting you know.

I hate being that person. I hate being that person who's always like, no more than the gambling. Don't the other thing. I hate being someone who's like, hey, something's coming up soon. Stay tuned. I'm not going to do that.

But Mitch and I are potentially doing something that's going to be like incredible for the show, unbelievable. And, I don't know, maybe a month away. I think we're doing it. It's going to be, everything you want from this show is going to happen, Matt, when we eventually do the thing that we think we're going to be able to do.

Right? Do you agree on that? Yeah. Yeah. And what Jeff's referring to is him and I, we're going to make our pick shirtless. Hey, dude. That's it.

That's what it's going to be. If I go 5 and 0, we go 5 and 0, I will go shirtless next week. Wow. Whatever helps, whatever was, you know, baseball players. Don't play me with a good time. You know, baseball players? do superstitious things, right? They change their underwear.

I'm a superstitious guy-ish. I'm a baseball guy for a core. Like, I played it all through high school and everything. Like, I'm okay with superstitions. If this is what makes us win next week, I go, we go five and oh, take my shirt off. I won't do a shirt on with the entire rest of the season. And we'll just go rattle off wins and be happy and joyous

and have some football victories, Matt. I mean, I could be pantsless right now. So could you. You know, that's the joy of the, the home webcam. Anything's possible. It certainly is the joy of the home webcam. There is joy in Cleveland. The Browns are three and one, Matt.

After last night's win, I, Sean Watson is a terrible person. We've talked with this many times. So let's just get that out of the way. And it's the hard part about sports. I think sometimes where it's a difficult discussion, he's a objectively a terrible person, right? Like, we can all agree on that.

I can go football, though. It's much better than I thought he'd play. And Todd Munkin clearly could coach offense, man. Dude can freaking coach offense. Their head coach. Their defense is playing well, even though Pittsburgh's not very good in offense. They try to blow the game at the end. The same way, the Cowboys tried to blow the game.

Last week, it didn't work in this instance. But the Browns are 3-1, man. They're 3-1, and they're playing good football. And Watson has not played better since 2020. There's just no way. And he still misses some throws. You know, but like legitimately, and his arm strength is not great.

at times, but he's playing way better I thought he would. A guy that I'm not rooting to play well, but the truth is he's playing well. Yeah. I just, I kept thinking about Browns fans last night, where it's like, here you go. You finally are, you've got a team. And like apart from Watson, every other part of the team is so likable. And they've done it the right way, right? Like everywhere else, like their draft picks have been awesome.

They accumulated more draft capital. They just like they hit on all of their big picks in the last two years it looks like. And Munkin, like you said, is just how do you not root for a guy like that? First head coaching job, you know, it sort of felt like an afterthought in this coaching cycle. We work with Marlon Humphrey on the Ravens. And whenever we ask him about Munkin, who was the O.C. there for, you know, in his last stop, he just lights up. Like, every single time we've ever brought him up, he's just like this, you don't understand. Like, this guy's the best.

And I think that it's clear. It's what they needed, I think, was somebody who felt like he had nothing to lose and had a sense of culture. And obviously, like, knows how to coach offense. And, you know, I just feel so bad for the, for the Browns fans. It's like at the forefront of this is this guy, you know, especially in just sort of like the news climate right now with this Cornell story. And just in general, like, I like, I hate that this guy is having a moment, you know, because it's, it's just not, it's not fair to the Browns fans who stuck around with this team. So very confusing. Obviously, like, maybe we're not the right show to talk about the big picture stuff there.

but it's just, I don't know, if the Browns fans are on my minds. They were booing him a month ago. Yeah. Like they wanted him to get out of there fast. And maybe another example of the preseason is not real season, right? I mean, you know, they look terrible, the preseason looks much better now.

But the Browns are 3 and 1. They're still not very good. I mean, I saw someone who had him in their power ranking, still 30th in the NFL. Yeah. Like they're a team. So I talked about this on bare bets, but it's worth branching now.

Like, you can always, take win totals during the season, right? Like, that's something you can do. And the Raiders under eight and a half wins, and we'll go to Raiders Chiefs, like, is a great, in my opinion, a great wager right now. Wow. And, yeah, and, you know, it's under eight and a half

minus 118, because heaven forbid we get a good straddle. But the, it's minus 118 and minus 105. Like, what are we doing? And, you know, their schedule is really, really tough the way out. They're three and oh, obviously, but it's Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, Rams, Jets. And then it's Niners, Seahawks, Broncos, Browns who look much better, and they're at Cleveland, than Chargers, Broncos, Titans, Cardinals, Chiefs.

Are they winning six more games? Yes. In that schedule? It's a great point. So just like keep an eye on that. And I think for the Browns, they're very much in the, like, Like, what's their win total at right now? Do we go under?

It's actually, it's at seven and a half. So you get eight and a half. Oh, yeah, seven and a half. So the books are on to that one. The Raiders one might be worth making, by the way. So we'll talk more about that as we continue on here. All right, Matt, let's get to us. Go through all the games and let's pick our sides we want to take.

Yeah, let's do it. Real quick, too. I just, I loved Rogers and McCarthy just swearing at each other on the sidelines. That was my favorite part of last night. It was great. and the reason why is so the quarterback, you know, they send him on the plane, right? The radio the play in.

And at 15 seconds on the, on the play clock, the radio shuts off. So there was like 22 seconds left. And he's like, dude, get the fucking play in. Like, let's go. And excuse my language there. That's what he said, I think. It is what he said, yeah.

And then McCarthy called him an asshole. Which, like, but I get it. You got to get to play it, man. Because then you can line of scrimmage. you have to go over, you know, your sort of pre-snap process of looking at the defense and maybe making some changes and the office line, figure out where to go. And you can't do that if you don't get the playing on time. Yeah. I just thought it was so funny. Rogers has just like, he's just throwing everybody under the bus like all the time. I was, I was watching. This is a good

one. And if you, if you and Meredith need a movie, uh, there's this new Unabomber movie on Netflix. I saved it to watch. Yeah. Yeah. And the star is Shailene Woodley. Oh, that's Roger's X, yeah. Yeah, and so every time, like, we watch this movie, and every scene she's in, I just keep thinking about what she allegedly told Rogers that she needed to just go bang one out with whoever before they got married. I forgot about that. She needed, like, one more screw before. Talk about a Hail Mary.

She just had to get one out there before she. Get one in there. Yeah, I just. The hotel room I was at this past week in New York City, that would have been a good one for, in Roller. It's just a nice, comfortable couch. It would have been perfect for what I think she wanted out of that. I think we should need to tell everybody what you're talking about right now. Because there is a group chat with us and Sam, who's the producer of the show, where it's only about when are we recording and cock chairs in hotel rooms?

And I don't really know how this started. Basically, if your kids are listening, you might want to turn this part off. But essentially, it's just funny to us that the chairs and couches in hotel rooms, and how they look directly upon the bed. And there's a many different varieties of these sort of couches. And there's a ton of accounts on TikTok that show, like, the various ways to look at the bed. And of course, like, I don't know what happens in those hotel rooms. I sit in those chairs.

They're very comfortable from time to time. But this last, this last hotel room had like a large, comfortable couch and a tray table. A tray table is looking right next to the bed. A roll cigarios. Yeah. So every time I go to hotel, I text Matt. and Sam, my chair set up. You know, New York City, I say different hotels every week-ish, and I like to talk about

the different chairs. But my favorite are the showers, the shower that overlooks the bed. It just makes no sense to me. Yeah, what are we doing with that? Everybody seemed to have made that architectural choice at some point in hotels. And by the way, if your kids are listening to our gambling show, like, what are we doing? Like, I'm just going to go and the car. I don't know, man.

I'm in the car. I could auto play. Like, you know. There are times I'm listening to, like, I'll get part of my ticket. a shout out. And it's on in the car. And then like it just sort of on and we're driving to school. No one's really listening to it.

Just like auto plays, you know, from my phone. And then like, ah, volume down, volume down. Like, you know, like, I'm talking to my son about something and we're just not like really listening and like just turn it down as quick as possible. It is nice. This is the first year my son's into football because he's doing fantasy football. He lost by 0.3 points this past week. And so he got to feel the heartbreak of what that's like.

I didn't want to tell how much money I lost in the church. chargers on Sunday. So we both had pain. Don't tell them how much I lost either. Painful days. Last thing before we got going here. So last night, my wife is in Nashville for a conference. And she was at a bar with her coworkers. What's so funny about you some I know where you're going with this. Yeah. Okay. She saw my Twitter. She saw, so I'm in a, she's in a bar with her coworkers. And her coworkers loosely know I play in the NFL. I don't ever see that. It's like I talk about like I play the NFL. Merritt definitely doesn't talk about it.

But she definitely tells them that my job is yelling into a computer screen. That I know she tells them. So she's at a bar yesterday in Nashville, and Bear Betts was on FS1 in the bar. So awesome. So she took a picture of it and sent it to me. And then I say, well, now your coworkers know that I actually have a real job. Then she texts me, what are your plays for this week?

Really? Shocked. So I sent her my sixth college football players, which are up on social media at Jeff Schwartz. And that was it. She's like, and then I talked to her last night or this morning, whenever it was.

I was like, so who wanted to play? She was, I don't know. Someone asked me about him, but I told him you don't win at all. Where it? I was like,

do better. In NFL, yes, I win nothing. Well, props I'm okay in. If you listen like the show on Sundays, I do.

College of football, I'm good at them, 57% lifetime college football. But it's just funny. It's just funny. Because her thing is she never sees money come into the account. Right. It just always leaves.

And so she just says, assumes I have like, I have a lot of money in my account. That's how betting works. I know. But I'm like, Meredith, we have two Nordstrom boxes at the bottom of the stairs right now, okay? That money you spent there, I'm putting on, you know, the USC to cover this weekend, okay?

Like, that's what it is, right? So, um, that's, that's what it is. And, uh, it's, yeah, it was a proud moment for me to show off that I actually do work. And so, um, I'm glad that our show gets a little bit of, of FS1 run. So I get taxed about it. People seem to enjoy that's on TV.

So it's, yeah, that's my story from last night. I love that. And the Schwartz football show, still eligible for sponsorship. I'm looking at you people that make the cuck chairs. Ashley Furniture, maybe. There's somebody out there who's making the cuck chairs. Oh, well, dude, we, North Carolina, about two hours north of here, High Point is like where all the furniture in the country's made.

I should go up there and start talking to people. I know because my house is furnished. My house is furnished from high point. We should get a cock chair sponsor. We're available. We'll take your money. To be fair, the chair I sit in to watch football every Sunday is a cuck chair because I just watch my wagers lose every single weekend.

And I do it willingly every weekend, Matt. Man gets savaged by 31 NFL teams at once. When the bill scored last weekend for no freaking reason, just to shove it in the face of the Chargers. Like, no reason whatsoever. And then the Chargers are not aggressive. Like, the Niners did it too. The Niners scored for no reason.

Now the Cardinals came back and kicked that field goal, but they didn't have to score either. They did it just to be assholes, which, again, it's different. Like, I appreciate that. But as someone on the other side, it sucks off. right like i'm pro not really running up the score but just like keep playing off it's who cares who cares okay are you ready to go i'm i'm ready all of my producer instincts are like are dying that we haven't gotten to football yet i know i thought myself i'm having too much fun

it's like 20 minutes in and we haven't done any of this if you're still here thank you yes thank you it's going to pay off with in about a month yeah that's right with some content that we got coming okay let's start mac go ahead let's start uh my team the commandantes are uh quote unquote hosting the Colts in London. Jaden Daniels, not Jalen Daniels, Jaden Daniels was ruled out this morning. So he won't play, but it looks like commanders are getting a few guys back. The line here is three and a half for the Colts.

Feels a little high to me, but not sure how strongly I feel about it. Do we have a general rule of not bet the London game? Yeah, it's probably a good rule. Yeah, we try to stay away from those games. You know, footing is a little bit weird, different stadium, early game, not I guess early games, early for us. I guess it's certainly early for their body clock game out of London as well. I mean, it would be the commanders, but off that big win last week,

the same team's going to show up? I don't know. I mean, you thought they were going to get crushed last week. I did. I took a big out last week. I was happy to. Yeah, it's tough. It's also been on a backup quarterback having like two really good games in a row.

The only, the thing that gives me optimism is a fan here. is the two strengths of this team are the Colts rushing offense and the commander's rush defense. So if they roughly cancel each other out, then I think this is a live one. But I agree. The favorites are who you tend to want to take in these international games. They have a tremendous record over time.

So trying to get cute and get the hook here just feels a little bit irresponsible. But if we needed a fifth, I'd consider it. But I just don't think this one makes our list. it probably shouldn't yeah that's right uh good luck to marcus mariotta and the crew uh all right great great and very uh important game to start the one o'clock's uh rams at eagles let's start there this line has moved up to plus three and a half for philly this was a two two and a half three um i guess with devonce smith not practicing yesterday it doesn't look like he's going to

play so that's a big one um what do you think here i like i did like the rate was a minus three, Matt, for a couple of reasons. One is that I don't think Philly is very good. I think we kind of nailed the Philly take, preseason take. Offensively, really struggling right now to have any consistency. And right now, DVOA in offense is ranked, right here, 17. Jalen Hertz, I think it was ranked 27th in EPA per play right now. The run game is not great.

And now you lose Devonte Smith. Who's your pass in the ball to? this weekend. They have no tight end, which crushes the offense too. See, offense can't move the ball. And defensively, this defense line is supposed to be great, Matt. Not playing great. Not playing great. They're not tackling well. I think they're one of the lowest tackling teams, according to PFF. They're not rushed the pass for terribly well. Like, they're not doing anything well right now. You can make the case they got embarrassed last weekend. They want to have a better game this weekend, absolutely. But so with the Rams. The Rams

up 16-0 and lost that game. And Pugua has believed back this week as well. Now you have to worry about the Rams going back on the road again, another big road game. But at three, I like the Rams a lot. Three and a half, I mean, that obviously is a worst number. I think Rams are much, much better. And then if, if Pukaku is going to play, they have advantage just all over the field, dude. Yeah. Yeah, it's really kind of stunning, actually, like the difference in these two teams. Yeah, I think the PFF, Howie got a lot of credit for locking up that interior defensive line. and they have just not looked the part at all this year.

So, yeah, I think the hook just is too much. Like, if this was two and a half, three, I think I'd be in for it. But there's a lot of ways this could go wrong. Also, Stafford and McVeigh just haven't. They've played the Eagles four times and they've just never beaten them. So there might be something about Fangio or, you know, confidence or something. This is just, I can't believe this is three and a half. It's like, who is, like, taking the Rams at three and a half?

Like, I'm stunned that this hasn't been bought back. My guess is it doesn't close three and a half. It closes three. Yeah. It's like if it gets to three, I think I'll just throw a little bit on the Rams. But three and a half, I just, I feel like they're just trying to get some Eagles money. Yeah. So, yeah, probably a pass as we record this now.

Man, there's some nasty games in this one o'clock hour. Green Bay, also a three and a half point road favorite in Tampa. this is Jalen Daniels NFL debut. Packers Road favorites with that offense is a tricky one to wrap my head around. What do you think? I mean,

it's bucks or nothing. Correct. But this play would be just a 100% Packers fade and almost no, like no positive. It just be the Packers stink so bad. Why a three and a half point favorite on the road against any quarterback in the NFL.

I think Jalen Daniels over rushing is a very fun play to make. He's going to rush the ball a lot this week. The Packers can't, they're not going on defense. They're not good on offense. This outdoor game, you know, in the heat in Tampa Bay. How convicted are you on Tampa? Not very. I mean, this is just a professional, like, hold your nose spot.

Like, if you're in a picks pool, you're taking Tampa. You might look like an idiot. But the trend is, at least since 2020, Teams in this spot where they are winless in week four playing a team that has at least a win. Since 2020, they're 13 and 3 against the spread. So, and 65% since 2005. So this is just like, you know, there is a world where if you're just doing this exact format, if you're doing the Super Contest 5, you're taking the Dolphins, Chargers, Texans,

bucks and Titans. Those are the five teams in that time this week. You're probably going three and two or better. We joked about this on Bear Bet's yesterday. Like, if you ran Robin parlayed them, you'll make money. That's actually a really good, good idea. I might do that. So, yeah, I think, you know, they're ugly.

All of them are going to be ugly. I think are going to probably be on it one or two of them. I like one. I like one a lot. I think I like another one just like, mad, but we'll talk it through. Yeah, I mean, this, also the, the quarterbacks this year, I think every single backup or, you know,

third string quarterback that's come in has won. So I don't know. But Green Bay, to me, like, I think they have a huge coaching advantage here. I think everyone's down on the floor, but he is a proven really good coach. And the bucks might, the box just might quit.

Like, it's possible that they're just done. So I think this is a stayaway. I agree. I agree. All right. Speaking of stayaways, Jets and Bears, we assume that this is going to be Tyson Bayesian starting.

The Bears are like three and a half. The Jets injury report is just, I've never, I mean, this is crazy. Breeze Hall, 80 Mitchell. it's going to be a rough game. I don't know what to do here. I think you just stay away from this one. Yeah, I think so.

You don't even know who the quarterback is. That's bad ball if we take that one. All right, Patriots bills. Bills are laying seven. This has hovered around six and a half, seven all week. They're dying for someone to take the Patriots, huh? Yeah, they are. Are we going to be those dummies?

You have to consider it. Don't you? You have to. Yeah. I mean, first of all, like, Mike Rable, obviously maybe not himself this year for reasons that many, many understand.

Yeah. He historically, like, is unbelievable as a huge dog. He's actually, as a six or more point underdog in his career, he's nine and eight straight up. So as a big underdog, he's actually over 500.

And against the spread, he's, let me find that one. But he's, he's great. in this spot. Not a bad money line play. Also,

like, they have confidence. They beat this team in Buffalo last year. Like, I think they can do it. They're just bad. I mean,

I, I, trick money looks like he lost all confidence. And maybe he has more confidence because he's playing a team that he knows well and played well against last season.

And maybe there's a little bit of, of that, like, confidence shows through in this game. Um, the bill is the most popular side in the whole sport this week, too. So, like,

that's like a positive here for, for New England. Um, But you have to just imagine that the Buffalo is going to be better. Speak about the bills. Did you hear Nick Wright's take on Josh Allen on Kevin Clark's show? I did, but give folks a summary. So essentially he said that no player he can recall has been named by the media,

the best player in the league without actually accomplishing anything. Like no first team all pros, didn't even play in a championship game. He's not playing a conference championship game, has less. accolades than other players at his position, like Lamar and Patrick Mahomes, and that fails in the bigger moments. And I was thinking about this, like, I'm not a story in a basketball or baseball.

The only comp is like Mike Trout, where, like, people think Mike Trout was the best player in baseball, I think, for a couple of years. And everyone, but, like, it's a different type of, of, like, you know, sort of comparison. But this comparison is basically, like, why does the media,

why have they crowned Josh Allen the best player in football? We wouldn't do this in another sport if a player of his caliber had not won anything essentially of value and had no awards in his name. Now, he's MVP awards, obviously. But like the idea that he's not been a first team all pro, even as MVP year, it's kind of crazy. Yeah.

That's such a great comp, the trial comp. He reminds me a little of like early career, Peyton Manning, where everyone was just so excited about Peyton Manning. I'm sure you remember this. But he eventually broke through, right? Yeah. Oh, seven with that Super Bowl. And they got to...

It was like 05, whatever. But 07 was the Giants, but whatever. Yes. Yeah, yeah, 06. 06 to 07, yeah. So he, yeah, but I agree. Like, it's strange. I mean, Nick's, no one has better takes the Nick period, but certainly on

Josh Allen. His best take about Josh Allen, I think, is when you picture Josh Allen's best win, you actually picture a loss. It's the 13 seconds game. to the chief. So yeah, yeah, I agree. He's he's got these he's he's got the whole media in his back. And if I think everyone just thinks it's a matter of time until he gets there. But like some point we've got us we've got to see the rubber hit the road. I just the tweets about the Patriots by the way about so Drake May's wife seems like a

lovely lady, but she does food reviews. She's done it forever. And when you're winning, it's a lot of fun when you're losing people bullshit on it, right? Of course, because they're assholes. But there's a there was a picture of her this week. reviewing a meatball sub and someone said how did drake may's wife get the game ball on a thursday that's awesome she's been a lovely lady i had nothing mean to say about her but when you know when you're the spouse of a player and things are going well everyone loves your con i remember last year she was like the queen of of the north right like people loved her content and then you start losing all of a sudden And I'm not saying, and she should not change, by the way, just be the same person, whatever.

But people are crushing her this week and crush a drink May this week. So I put the Patriots in the Mabies, buddy, plus seven. It's the best number that we're going to get this week. It's just a spot. I think, you know, maybe we take advantage of it. God, I'm going to absolutely hate that if that's the case. That would just be, I mean, if we do that, we should also probably sprinkle on the under. That line is at 48 and a half.

The only shot we have is if that's a low-scoring game, the Patriots defense plays over their skis. So one game that might not go under is Jaguars and Bengals, the Bengals are two and a half favorites at home. I really like one side here. Oh, okay. Well, before we get to that, did you see the Betlabs tweets?

This is Evan Abrams, that Jacksonville's Owen 23 lifetime when the total is over 49 for a game of theirs? Was that Evan who tweeted that? It was Betlabs, isn't that Evan? Isn't that like the actions thing or not? I actually am not sure about the work. chart. But while we're here, let me give a shout out to my buddy, Evan Abrams, who is the stats guru at Action Network. And every year hooks me up with the free subscription because I worked there

seven years ago with Jeff. Thank you, Evan. Here it is right here. Jaguars and games are a total of 49 plus. And this total, you mentioned like 51 or something like that. Oh, in 23 straight up. However, this is the week they go 1 in 23. Really? You like Jacksonville. Yeah, they're better than Cincinnati, I think. Wow. All Jacksonville's, they've won a lot. like 11 of 12 regular season games. Interesting. It's not my strongest play of the week. I just think they're really good.

And they played one. So far this season, they played one bad quarter, right? They won 30, 14 against the Browns are now three and one. They were winning in Denver and allowed 14 fourth quarter points. And they beat the share of the Patriots last week. Yeah. I think they're a really good football team, dude. And all they've done is win a ton of versus in games, the last basically 10 games they've played or 11 games they've

played. Why do you like the Bengals? I liked them less now. I assume that we would just be on them here because this line has has not moved. And I feel like everybody is taking Cincinnati. In fact, let me look at the splits here. They are. 60% of the money and tickets are on Jacksonville. So they are actually the public side. I think with Cincinnati, look, they had a bad game last week. You know, obviously that Pittsburgh loss looks even worse now. But, But two things. The Jaguars have played like two different teams. It's only been three games, but on the road and at home.

In September, they always do super well at home. They've been super good under Liam Cohen at home in general. I think now they're like seven and one against the spread as a true home team. I just think that they've, you know, the Bengals, everybody sort of is like selling the Bengals defense. Jacksonville's defense like has a lot of things to be desired. They just kind of are getting really lucky on the turnover side. and I just think the Bengals are like they haven't had like a really good game yet

they always takes them a while to sort of get warmed up I just think they have an advantage kind of kind of everywhere they've like their offensive line is playing better than people realize I think their defense has just like improved it's not as good you know it's not like a top line defense like it looked like it might be for a few weeks but I just like Rowe is a short home favorite

and the Jaggs on the road like I think it's just Is this one of your favorite of the week? I was open to this. But if we're split, then let's just not play it. But I felt like, we don't have any games yet. So like, do we have to some point? We have New England, maybe. I don't want to talk to you out of a side ever because you know more about football.

So I also suck at this. So that's also part of it as well. All right. Let's go to next game then. This is such a tough week. Okay. The next game is, gosh, I don't know if we have a side here. It's the Ravens laying 11 and a half to the Titans.

So the only thing about this game is quite simply the trend with the only three teams, and the Ravens never cover these games. Like, this is the game where they always stink it, right? Like, this is the games that they're terrible at. But I think Tennessee is truly, truly bad. There's another big game with a big number that I like the other, the away team better than I do right now. Mostly because the team they're playing is not very good in my opinion.

but Tennessee is 29th and DVOA they're just atrocious dude how are they 2810 how are they scoring the one game in Philly they got a pick six in that game or almost a pick six that like make that game even close they've basically not scored at all

in the three I can't do it man I just can't I almost like if I'm in a picks pool I think I'm taking Baltimore in this one and I get that the trends obviously tell you to do the other side here but the I think the Ravens haven't won a home game. It's the second longest streak in the NFL. It's like almost a year.

I think it was since like last October, almost Thanksgiving. Like they are going to win this game. And I think they're going to feed Derek Henry all day against his former team. And I, you know, like they could end up winning this game by 30. Like this is like with with Madabouquet back on the defensive line. Like they have a totally.

different run defense, which has been an issue for them over the last couple of years. I think their defense is, it definitely like, you know, they played Dallas last week. So it was, and it was like a fast field with a lot of points. But I think their defense is training up. And Cam Ward, like, they have no passing offense in Tennessee. So I think if they can't run, Cam Ward is just going to be under siege all day. And reminded, this week, I thought it was interesting that Derek Henry said this week, the Titans didn't even offer me a contract.

Like it's on his mind, and this is what the Ravens like to do. Like sometimes they blow these games or they win them by 40. Like this, they are a bit of a front running team where they get out and they love to sort of like be ahead by a ton. And then there's Lamar running for 80 yards. Yeah. Here's something for you, though. How about Derek Henry touchdown props this week? I know a lot of people like the yards.

Two is like three to one. And three is 14 to one. Oh, I like that. So if he had a three plus touchdown week, that was on one of the prediction markets. I'm going to ladder that one and do a little on two and a little on three. Because like if they're up 27 to 10 and they're hand in the ball to Justice Hill, and then at the one,

they're going to give Derek Henry a third touchdown. Like I think they're going to try to run it. I like that. I like that. So when I said the Ravens blow these games, I feel like that's one or two things. Either lose this game outright or win by 28. They just,

they don't win by three in this game, right? No, no, no. This will not be close. Or they will lose somehow. I like the touchdown. I like the touchdown. That's a good idea here. Touchdown score of props. Yeah, you could get... Get that bet in before anyone sees this. 13. Yeah, conventional book. It's 13 to... 13 to 1. Yeah, I mean, that's...

Three touchdowns is a lot, but two is, you know, you can do a little bit of a ladder there. That could go right. All right, what's next? I think this is the system play here. Texans hosting Dallas. Texans are three-point favorites at home. Dallas coming off that tough international loss. You like the Texans?

This line opened. I think Dallas might have actually opened his favorites, or at least it was like a short spread, and everyone has just kept piling on the Texans. I think that the public is just better at this now. But, yeah, I do like the Texans here, do you? I vowed to be off the Texans, but if you like them, we can obviously play them.

I think we have to consider it. I hate that it's three. Teams coming off an international series game as a road underdog are one and 12 straight up in their last 13 games. Yeah, yeah. And this is also, we mentioned just like a spot where you take a winless team. Texans last year did this, right?

They were 0. and 3. They made the playoffs 1 in 12 and 5. Nico Collins coming back changes everything. And it looks like he is going to play. Dallas is secondary last week. The commentator was saying they might run out of players. Like they really are not going to have a lot of opposition to Stroud. And, you know, this is the Texans defense playing for their season.

Like, are they going to be able to get some stops? They are going to need to. Yeah, it's a spot. This is the best, one of the best trend spots for this, for this trend, right? The Texas team that Despoe has to win that's back at home off a, you know, Bad Cowboys lost international game. I'm good with the Texas minus three. Yeah, I mean, I just feel like in years past, this would have been like pick them.

But now it's now it's Texans minus three. All right, we have to put that in. I don't love it, but it makes sense. Yeah. I will say this next game, I bet this on Sunday night. Shout out to my friend Neil who flagged this one. The Cardinals were underdogs and now they are favorites. I got them at plus one and a half.

They're now minus two and a half at the Giants. Crazy, crazy line flip. I like the Giants plus two and a half. Okay. Talk about it. Why the Cardinals are a favorite by two and a half. Fair enough? What's the reason?

Because they beat a bad Chargers team in week one. They barely covering it to Niners. They allow 31 to 36 points of back-to-back weeks, right? The Giants with James Winston are fine, not great, but they're to be able to run the ball in this game. I am a tag concerned about the injuries, you know, piling up for the Giants, which do seem to have, you know,

some injury problems right now. But Arizona and Giants are right, are back to back in, in DeVoy, the, they're, the Arizona defense is 31st so far in, in the NFL.

Like, I think that this is just, the rather have two and a lot of three, but the Giants are, we're paying Arizona on the road in New York. Like, I, I,

I, I, I, I take the giant. buddy. I'm open to this. Yeah, I mean, Brian Burns injury, a big one. But I don't know if that's

swinging the line of three points. Yeah, I mean, the Cardinals are a team that I think are getting a lot of respect mostly because they're a cover machine, not necessarily because they're going to be a winning team. Yeah, I mean, this is the game that like a Giants team, you could see them

like, oh my gosh, like the Giants and the Browns are three and one and both in first place. Like, I could definitely see that. Uh, his neighbors, is neighbors, are right? Is he going to play? Uh, I don't know. But I mean, obviously, they would need him. But like, what does it stop scattered me from having a billion yards?

You know what I mean? Like, I don't, I don't know why. I don't know, what are the Cardinals defense that makes you think they're going to stop the Giants at all? Yeah. Giants, Giants defense is so bad. But this could just be like a just an ugly game. West East. This is the first time, uh, Florida was going to do that.

Yeah, I don't, I don't mind us. It's just a sleepy Monday game or Sunday morning game that's, you know, not going to have a lot of action. I could see this one being close light. Yeah, all right. That's advancing. Yes. Okay.

Are we going to do this one? This is the dolphins at the Vikings. The Vikings are living in a half points. Yes, yes, we are because the Vikings offense stinks. Okay. And look, could Malik Willis have zero points in this game? Absolutely. But the Vikings had six first down.

last week for like 50 minutes of that game. Their offense is atrocious. It's one of the worst in the NFL. They're not good in offense. And the dolphins are not good. Don't get me wrong. Like nothing about them is good. Defense actually eighth in DVOA.

Defense can play a little bit. You can play. Jacob Rodriguez is going to win defense to player of the year as a rookie. I mean, rookie defense player of the year, which I gave out, 25 to 1 earlier this year. Or like, he's going to win defense to rookie the year. like the divots can play a little bit. Now, am I terrified of Malik Willis

needing to score probably two touchdowns to cover this game? Abs are freaking looting. But this is absolutely a play, Matt. It has to be a play. I mean, does he have to score two touchdowns? Like, they beat the Bears 9 to 6 or whatever. Like, this could just be like a 13 to 3 game.

Like, I think there's a very good chance that, you know, this, if you're Minnesota, your goal coming out of this game obviously is to win. Flores, of course, has some own goals, I'm sure. But they need to get Kyla Murray right. And they haven't gotten a 250-yard game on offense yet. Like, they need to just, like, move the ball. They need to find something.

And meanwhile, like, they have no running game. Justin Jefferson's not going to play in this. Yeah. What exactly are they going to do on offense? Like, their offense, their defense is going to be their offense. Is Jefferson out this week? I'm pretty sure he is, right? Oh, he's on my fantasy team.

I got to, I don't, I forget I have a fantasy team. And then like someone mentions it like a player I have. I'm like, oh boy, I got to change my lineup. Welcome to being a fan, buddy. He was, he did not practice Thursday. So I think I just assumed he's out there. Well, by, and the problem with, you know, we do a show on Friday, not a problem. It's better than Wednesday last year.

We just don't have like great information injuries, you know, by, you will know more, more by today. The way list a mess. Questionable? That will tell you a lot. Dernable. He, Tom Pell and Sarah did that. If he doesn't play this week, he must. might play next week.

So I have a feeling that's what that means. Vikings injury reports. That matters a lot, right? Because they have to be pretty truthful about it. Oh, I guess I have to do game status by today, I think. Didn't practice Wednesday. Didn't practice Thursday. Not great.

Yeah. So maybe he's on a pitch count. Either way, like, you know, they're not going to, the Vikings are unlikely of any team to blow anyone out. I think, I don't think any team in the, like, I don't have the stat in front of me has gone four and oh with this bad of an offense. So I could see this one being like, huh, the dolphins actually are kind of close here. So yeah, we're going to put this one in and hate it, hate it so badly.

That's how to go through. And probably text each other angrily. All right, we are, that's the first game of the late window, by the way. That's a 405 game. Yeah, 425 Broncos at Niners. Ooh. Yeah, interesting. Niners, two and a half point favorites. I'm surprised this one.

I'm surprised there's just not more people betting on the Niners and moving this line. It's up to 70% of the money is on the Niners. The Broncos have played three games this season, right? Yeah. They lost the Chiefs by 21. They played two home games. They scored 14 points in the fourth quarter against Jacksonville to win that game and cover. And they get the Rams.

They scored 30 second half points to win by four. How can they keep doing this, man? I mean, same. Who are the Niners, though? Right? Like, they beat the Rams in a game that McVeigh has now taken the blame for in that weird Australia game. Yeah, I know.

They killed the dolphins at home. And then they snuck by the Cardinals. Like, everyone thought that was a blowout. And then they let the Cardinals back in. The Cardinals put up 30 points last week. I know. I think the Broncos, I mean, the other thing, too, is like, here we go again with San Francisco injuries.

Without Bosa, their defense looks totally different. Trent Williams, even if he's limited, like this Broncos defense. hasn't like really coalesced yet. Like it feels like they're going to turn it around. I think Denver is the play here if we like us, if we need a side, but it's not going to be super fun. We're not a pro Denver show anyway at this point.

Not a pro Denver show, no. All right. So let's consider that, but I don't think we're going to take it. O'Nicks 9 and 2 against NFC opponents in his career. It's spread interesting. All right. God, God help us.

Jeff. The Chargers and the Seahawks. No, skip. What if we can get seven and a half? What if we can charge the go F themselves? That's what they can go do. There is a seven and a half out there. I don't care. There could be a 20 and a half. Wow. The Seahawks are off a pretty

embarrassing loss too, by the way. Like, they're off a pretty bad loss where defense did not show up. And the Chargers, I just, I can't do it, man. I can't do it again after last week. man I mean this is the spot again right like this is the you know I thought last week was the spot and they can't score dude

yeah this is this is stunning because okay let's play this out so if if the chargers do end up losing this game they will be oh and they'll be oh and four right they'll be oh and four yeah and then they will be next week heading to they'll host ember I mean maybe they can get that one then at Kansas City at Rams Texans at Ravens. Like, how much, like, what is going to happen here? Like, they, like, how much longer is Harbaugh coach? Like, I just don't know how much longer this is going to last.

Yeah, it's, it's, he's going to be gone after this year, I think. And, like, or maybe they fire McDaniel. Like, if it's, they can't score, their buys in week seven. So if they get there and they're one and six, you know, between. I don't, I don't think he's going to get, I don't think he's going to get, he's going to get fired during the season, though. Yeah, I could see McDaniel taking the fall.

Like, Harbaugh is not. It's not going to be Harbaugh, including the fact that they, like, owe him too much money. But I don't know. This whole team, they have a lot of work to do. And this is a tough spot to play. They're just atrocious, man.

Yeah. I'd rather pass on this one. Yeah, I feel like one of New England where the Chargers are going to win. I had a seven feelings. It's probably going to be New England. Okay.

Famous last words, your chiefs are four and a half point favorites at the Raiders. I have a feeling you're going to tell me we're taking the Chiefs. I just have a feeling. We don't have to, but I'm not taking the Raiders in the spot who I think are a little Fugazi.

The Chiefs did, his thing, the Chiefs did not play well last week I won by 14 points. Like, they're a good football team, man. They are. And this is sort of like revenge for last, really the last two years when they just didn't cover these games. And they, again, they played poorly and easily covered. What was it last week?

Nine and a half, ten, whatever it was, 11. So I think that we don't have to play it, but it's chiefs or nothing for me. Yeah, chiefs haven't covered the last five divisional road games. but I agree. I think this is an interesting line because this is again like the public is just sharper than it used to be. If the Chiefs win, this is great. Andy Reid will become the winningest coach

in Allegiant Stadium history. Wow. It'll be his seventh win and that would, including the Super Bowl that was there and that would make him the winningest coach there ever, which is absolutely insane. So I think that's just funny. Casey is probably going to win.

I think the Raiders are feisty. Their home crowd is going to be up for this. You know, the Chiefs can win by three like they tend to historically and still win. So I think this is a pass in the contest here, but I think the Chiefs are going to win. Just don't know if they do it by a touchdown. I think they're going to win too. Acoma home is overrushing. Okay.

Interesting. Tell me why, because of the edge pressure. Yeah, I think he's going to have to run. He didn't run all last week, you didn't have to. I think this would go have to run because of Max Crosby, the edge pressure. I think that's like this is the type of game we're going to see. And they have their buy next week too. So like, let's just go full steam ahead with this game, cover this game, and move it along.

I mean, this is, this is like, that's a theory too. Like they could just say like full speed ahead. Let's get to our bye week. Let's kick the shadow of the Raiders and go home. Yeah. What's going on with Jeff Simmons? No idea. They say it's a back injury.

Interesting. Tough, tough assignment for this offensive line. That is the one thing about the Raiders that is not Fugazi. Their defensive line has gotten a ton of pressure this year. So it'll be interesting to see how the chiefs handled out. Okay, we're moving to Sunday night football now. Lions at Panthers. Man, what a strange game.

This is at three and a half now. The Lions are road favorites. Do we know about Bryce Young? Do we know he's playing? I assume he is. Yeah, but the problem is, no one else is playing for the Panthers. There are two corners are out, right?

They're out for the season, I think. They lost three offensive linemen are out. Like, the team is down two defensive. The team is a shell, dude. Like, they're not going to be able to, can they keep up in this game? Now, this is the pattern of like, good, bad, good, bad, good, bad for the Panthers.

This would be the good game that they play this week, right? But they have all these guys hurt. How are they going to play the good game? They're down, I think, wide receivers. They're down, what, wide receiver two and three as well? Like, Bill Barnwell put out a tweet. and I'm going to pull up right here. Put out a tweet and basically said that he put out the like the,

the depth chart for the Panthers. Okay, here we go. I got it right here. So they're down wide receiver two and three. Left tackle, right tackle, that we know, the left guard, right? They're down, their rookie right tackle. They're down their backup running back. They're down their best pass rush and he got hurt during, you know, training camp.

They're down a defense tackle. They're down both their corners. it's not great. It's really not great. I'm trying to see if we can get a three anywhere, because this has been, this has hovered at three, and it's like minus one of a two.

Let me just see if there's three. Do not see any. I wouldn't, I wouldn't hate taking to Trache here, honestly. Like, it's to your point, it's just,

you know, the corners, the corners are a problem. The lions love to run up the score in, you know, in games where it gets kind of huge. They do. The defense is so bad, though.

It's really bad. Yeah. It's ugly, but I'll throw it in. I feel like we have like that. There's like three in the mix that are like, oh, that range. I put Houston, Miami as yeses. Houston and Miami are in.

And yeah, all right. So we have one more game left, and I can't imagine we have a side on the other NFC South primetime game. Falcons at Saints. Saints are two and a half point favorites. Pennix seemed to rejuvenate that offense, a little extra rests.

What are we, do you have a side? This is the, this is the, the, uh, the Katrina anniversary game too, right? Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. Um, I mean, it would be Saints or nothing, but not because Katrina, but I, I don't know if I trust the Falcons. I'd beat a really shitty Packer's team.

But the Saints look really busy. Yeah, it was Thursday night, home game. The Saints looked really bad, uh, two, then they had the last four drives. They ended up with a fumble. and like three interceptions against our four turnovers,

last five possessions against the Raiders. I just think the Saints are so up and down. Yeah, and the Saints are like super banged up. Offensive line. Travis H.N., I did that one right. He's out. Yeah, it's like, I think the Falcons are not a bad side,

but like God help us. Forget it. All right, let's move. Let's look at our list here. I have a bunch of, teams written down but only two to yeses okay so i have houston and miami as yeses okay the other ones i wrote down were commies rams camas tampa pats denver giants lions should we play pats yeah i think we should play the pats okay uh so that's three that's actually three of the five system players right

there no not not the pats but they have a win oh yeah sorry you're right So the other one, like, do we play, is the Packers should maybe get in three and a half points of the road. Yeah, Tampa. I also wrote down, so Denver's out, right?

I mean, they're not out if you like Denver. I wrote, they're on here. Well, you also really like the Giants. And I, I,

you kind of talk me into that. I just think we should put the Giants through. I just don't understand like why, like, the Cardinals were favored by that much. Yeah. Right? I'm with you.

So I think for giants. So giants. So giant is four. Okay. So right now we have Houston, Miami, Pat's Giants. So now we have Denver, Tampa, Rams who have a bad number, commies, lions. Yeah. All three.

Denver's two and a half. The rest of them are three and a half. Which one? Okay. Backing Jalen Daniels in his first start as a rookie undrafted free agent feels dangerous. you think what if they're right i mean oh man i could i could see any of these sides coming through honestly yeah um why does detroit feel shaky to me because their defense stinks yeah let's let's maybe lose that like okay so we so now we have rams

Tampa Denver right we're throwing commies out i think we should okay also i don't want to be 0-1 by 9 a.m. Pacific. Correct. So if we're sitting here and we're texting each other during the game, I think we're going to be like, why the F do we bet on Tampa Bay? Correct. No question. Goodbye. So then we're going to be sitting there thinking the Broncos are down 17 points in the third quarter.

Why do we do this before they score 14 points the last eight minutes and cover the game and we get a push, right? Yep. Or the Rams and you're like, well, we just got that one wrong. What is the case for Philly? The case for Philly is everyone's going to be, is probably, we get a bad number. First of all, everyone's going to be on, on the Rams.

Right? But sure, but like, how does Philly win this game? Their secondary gets better. Their defense has not been good. Like, it's turnovers. The Rams just, the Rams just play, I guess the Rams just play poorly, I guess? I've liked the Rams all week. I gave it on bare bets.

Let's take the Rams. What are we doing? Rams, okay. Like the Rams are not going to be one and three. Probably not. In Philly, like,

Philly can't score. They just lost to, it's a case Keenham. Like, yeah, it's a bad number. And it's a spot where you're supposed to buy back on Philly. But I'm fine if we lose this one. Like, let's go down with the Rams.

Like, this is also like, you know, all the reasons you usually don't like the West coming to East. Like, oh, they haven't beaten the Eagles before. Like, who cares? Like, it's McVeigh and they need this win. I agree. All right. Rams are in. Let's go.

I actually really like this five. Houston, Miami, Pat's, Giants, Rams. Okay, what a collection of a team this weekend. Hopefully we get to five and a. Before we get out of here, I do want to say I thank you to. everyone who's been listening and commenting and helping us grow on social media. I mean, our account now, I think on Instagram that we've had for two weeks now, I want to credit Sam for getting all this stuff done for us and getting this up here

has grown to almost 500 followers, which is great and just 12 posts. But I will say, Matt, whenever I go on my Instagram and I see the comment section, right, there's always a link to like a threads, okay, from someone's threads. So I don't know it all. Like, this one is some woman I've never seen in my life. And you click on it, right? Or click on any threads account. What is happening on threads?

Does anyone, do you know anyone that uses it? I don't know anyone who's, like, active on there. I think everyone got an account at some point. And, like, I'll, like, accidentally hit it on Instagram once now. I'll just see, like, I just saw, like, Rich Eisen, like, put a thread out there. Like, who is? So people are going to, like, Twitter and then threads and then blue sky and, like, putting three different thoughts out there?

Is it connected together? I'm so confusing. Who's using threads? I don't know, man. I don't know, like, where anyone is talking. All I get on X are the most hilarious and terrible tweets all the time. And I can't quit it. Like, all the information is still there.

I want badly for somebody else to come in and get me off of X, but I can't. It's too fun. It's also just like the, Good stuff is really, really good. It's still the best stuff. And the algorithm is getting good at, like, making me laugh. Like, it's got a high hit rate. It does.

It's, yeah. And, like, the national stories, like, they get good. It's pretty fun. Yes. So, any last words? No, we hit threads. We hit cup chairs. We hit Maryland football.

If we fit all our main topics. Anything else? No, that's it. I think we did it. Okay. Here we go. Houston, Miami, Pat, Giants. Remember, if we win, I go shirtless next the week. That's right. TARPS off. Is what we're calling? Oh, yeah, the baseball thing, right? Tarps off. Hey, man, this chest hair is just itching to come out. Oh, geez.

It's itching to come out, everybody. All right, we'll talk to you guys on Tuesday with Mitch. Have a great weekend of watching sports. Talk to you guys then. Take care, everybody.