Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - NFL Week 5 Reactions

Episode Date: October 9, 2023

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Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 It's Monday, October 9th. I'm Jeff Schwartz. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smart. You were live on Twitter, YouTube, and on your favorite podcast platform of choice. We always love when you leave comments, you subscribe, you tell your friends. It's always awesome. Thank you for all of that. Appreciate that.
Starting point is 00:00:18 Now we've had this podcast for lots of years. We always appreciate the support. Today, we're brought to you by PrizePix. It's a skill-based, real-money daily fantasy sports game. Go to PrizePix and use code GSSY for a first deposit match up to $100. You pick two to six players if they'll go more or less than the PrizePix projection. You'll go up to 25 times your money on any entry. We'll be making a selection for the minor football game between the Packers and the Raiders later at the end of this show.
Starting point is 00:00:43 I've hit on a lot of them so far. I think three out of five weeks, so we're making money, we're having fun doing this. Welcome in Gabe Goodwin, as we normally do on Mondays for the recap of the NFL weekend. We'll touch on college football as well, as we normally do and cover both of those sports. Gabe, how are you, my friend? Well, I'm doing all right. Jeff, you are picking, picks have been made me feel a lot more calm than my favorite team has of late like when i make your picks i go i'll put this in
Starting point is 00:01:12 i think i'm gonna win i think i'm gonna make some money and so far i have when i root for usc i sweat man i sweat hard you're gonna be sweating this weekend when i lose notre dame um but we are we are we'll cover that in the third topic. Don't worry. We'll get to college football. Oregon-Washington, big game this weekend. We are 15-8-2 so far this year in our 25 wagers. We have made five a week for the National Football League.
Starting point is 00:01:37 We've never started this well, Gabe. I will take it. And really, not even like a lot of drama for the picks this week. Maybe a Giants late backdoor cover might have happened. The Niners blew out the Cowboys. The Bengals handled business in Arizona. The Steelers won, was obviously up and down, a very Steelers win. But Mike Tallman, again, covers as a home underdog.
Starting point is 00:01:59 He obviously won the game outright. But it feels like after five weeks now, we still have one game tonight. I feel pretty comfortable with where,'s good who's not like i kind of feel like we know the nfl now i i agree jeff i'm glad you put it that way i had this moment of clarity as the niners game ended last night where they showed kind of where things stand around the league and i can't remember a time of course i've probably said this every season of my life. I can't remember a time where the four best teams were so obviously the four best teams record stats, everything and just like eyeball test. It all lines up that we know who the four best teams are.
Starting point is 00:02:37 And similarly, we know who absolutely sucks. And I don't want to breeze past this because I'm not saying it because you missed your pick. But this is the second week in a row where you gave old bill belichick the chance you saw the points and you thought i'll go with the patriots they suck they're really really bad the patriots are the second or third worst team the nfl right i mean panthers are one i think even though the giants might be worse if the panthers put the giants uh i think we might end up with a tie the patriots are either 30 or 20 to 29 or 30 right or 31 they're atrocious um they they've been embarrassed to they lost 38 to 3 and 34 nothing like they've got embarrassed and um i think both would have
Starting point is 00:03:19 been the record for worst loss ever but they did it two weeks in a row i don't think belichick's back next season at this rate whoa for what purpose are they crafts gonna bring them back with a new quarterback like with the caleb williams i i don't know look here game there's two separate things right we're there we're saying that five we're there are we saying that i know you love this as a belichick hater um are we saying that belichick is a bad coach, a bad talent evaluator right now, or both? Because to me, it's more about the talent. His job as general manager is not going well. I think he can still coach X's and O's.
Starting point is 00:03:54 I know they're getting their asses kicked. I get that. But it's not like they're having situations where they're just not in the right place or doing the wrong thing. I think he can still coach, Gabe. The problem is his job is also the talent evaluator and the personnel man. And he really is bad at that job. So if Kraft says to him, hey, man, you can't do that anymore. You just can't. We're going to hire someone and you have no say over the roster. Maybe that works in New England. But if you go back to next season and say,
Starting point is 00:04:21 we're going to run this back with the same setup we have now you're going to lose again at a big rate and i don't know if belichick's going to leave but i i just you can't do this again next year now the question is really interesting is that if he were to go would he coach somewhere else your new favorite football team might need a new head coach next season what if you put him in in los angeles and have say, of course, you don't get personnel. Telesco's a GM there, right? Telesco does personnel. You coach.
Starting point is 00:04:51 I mean, is Belichick going to accept that new role after the season? I don't think anyone's going to give him personnel control. You can't. Look at what he's done to the roster. I know there's some issues on defense. I get that. But no depth. No wide receiver options.
Starting point is 00:05:03 Mac Jones stinks. It's not good in New England. No, it's terrible. Everyone likes to call him the GOAT coach, but he reminds me of the GOAT NBA player who nobody questions Michael Jordan as a player. He might have even been a decent coach if he wanted to do that. Not a good front office guy. Some people can't do it all. You know, to me, it makes like greg popovich even more impressive that greg popovich has not only been able to be the greatest coach in nba history maybe save phil jackson he builds teams correctly and he's a decent guy everyone seems to like him he makes people happy he makes people better he's not just a grumpy old jerk like the dude up in new
Starting point is 00:05:44 england but we're here to talk about the good teams so let's let's throw them in the dustbin a couple weeks ago we decided there were some teams we didn't have to talk about they're not quite there but they're getting there new england uh the other one would be denver i'll come back to them because hilariously bad team in denver right now but let's talk about the good team their rival the chiefs the team that we spend a lot of time covering here you've been joking on Twitter that like this team is chiefing except they still don't even really have the offense Travis has been hurt he got hurt again on Sunday Pat's played good not his best the defense has been pretty solid and now they're just they look like if not one 1a in the AFC right uh yeah
Starting point is 00:06:23 and and the Chiefs I don't think they've even played terribly well on offense for a lot of part of the season. They're 4-1, and at times their offense is pretty stagnant. I never thought I would say this, Gabe, but they missed Juju Smith-Schuster. They missed that player in the middle of the field. He had 78 catches last season for them. He had 101 targets. It's a big part of their
Starting point is 00:06:45 offense and we know that travis kelsey and though he came back from injury he scored a touchdown like he looked fine the connection obviously still there within the moms but there's just something missing in the offense and it's that middle of the field receiver they have mvs he can go deep watson can go deep it seems like watson and mahomes are having more of a connection he has those players but it's sort of like from number to number, from the line of scrimmage to 10 yards. Like who in that box right there on the field is going to be his wide receiver if it's not Travis Kelsey?
Starting point is 00:07:14 He doesn't have that guy yet. Rasheed Rice is sort of being that guy a little bit. He cut that slant pass for touchdown. But it feels like at times there's a little bit missing from their offense. And they're 4-1. Imagine when they get their offense figured out, Gabe. Their defense, by the way, has been fantastic. They've allowed 20 points or less on defense.
Starting point is 00:07:31 Remember, the Lions scored a defense touchdown in Game 1 in five straight games. Like, their defense is doing the job. Their pass rush was mad against the Vikings. But in the end, they're not allowing points. And if they can just get the offense to sort of function a little bit cleaner, they'd have the ability to wipe everyone out. I mean, honestly, right? Now, the Dolphins, I think, are really good.
Starting point is 00:07:54 The Dolphins have played really, you know, one team on the road that could match with them and got their asses kicked, right? So, you know, again, Buffalo went to New England, went to London, and lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Chiefs sort of beat the Jaguars, right? Joe Burrow looked better. He miraculously had no calf injury.
Starting point is 00:08:17 But they're 2-3. I mean, they have a long climb out of this. They play, after the bye, I believe, the Bengals play the Niners and Bills. They play the Seahawks this weekend. There's no guarantee they're going to beat the Seahawks. Bye week. And then I think it's some combination of like Niners, Bills, easy team at Ravens. So the Chiefs look like, as our guy Nick Wright says,
Starting point is 00:08:39 the Arrowhead Invitational might be in year six, right? Like them hosting the AFC championship game again. And again, they're not playing the best of football. Again, I go back to this idea of like the best teams sort of find ways to win, right, Gabe? They find ways to do enough to put themselves in the right situations, to be there at the end, to make the right plays. And the Chiefs continue to do that.
Starting point is 00:09:02 It's impressive to watch them keep winning ugly, and they play the Broncos on Thursday, and that game's going to be a dumpster. It'll be five and one, man. I think you'll feel pretty good if you're a Chiefs fan. Well, now's a nice time to bring up some Broncos stats. According to Ben Stevens on X, previously known as Twitter, a reminder, what the Broncos gave up for Russell Wilson and Sean Payton.
Starting point is 00:09:28 Three first-round picks, three second-round picks, a fifth-round pick, five-year $245 million, $165 million guaranteed for Russell, and five years $100 million for Payton. Okay? What the hell happened in Denver? and what's with sean payton is it a little harder to dust it off and go back into the modern nfl after spending a couple years and you know on the desk like why is he so lost out there so um a couple things i think here um russell wilson Russell Wilson, it's hard when your quarterback sort of just isn't good, right? Like Russell Wilson's not good.
Starting point is 00:10:11 And it's hard to win when your quarterback doesn't lift up the team around him, right? Like he doesn't like feel to me like he lifts the organization on his back and goes to win games. Yeah, I think this is a real – I think afterwards, I'm trying to find the exact quote here. Look, I think this is right. It seems to be shared around. Russell Wilson quote after the game, we really could and should be four and one.
Starting point is 00:10:36 Is that like a real – does a real leader say things like that, right? Does someone who is of sound mind as a quarterback and leader say things like that? No, quarterback and leader say things like that? No, he doesn't say things like that. He's in a fantasy land. And so I think it's tough with Russell Wilson. When your team doesn't have faith in the quarterback, I've been on those teams before. It's hard to win your entire team because you feel like you have to be perfect everywhere else.
Starting point is 00:11:06 And then you overcompensate here, you overcompensate there, and then boom, you lose a game. Russell's is just not good. And I'm curious of which of the four games they thought they should have, or which of the losses. So Dolphins obviously, this was the game they thought they should have won. The game where they lost, they were up 21-3 and blew a game, like blew that game. I just,
Starting point is 00:11:29 they're not good football team and the chiefs have kicked their ass. And there's gonna be a lot of hard discussions had about what to do, but I think it just stems back to me to Russell Wilson. You know, you really need your quarterback to kind of put you on your, your back in these situations. Right. And say, Hey guys,
Starting point is 00:11:45 we're not going to lose this game. We're going to go out and make it happen my job here is to be the guy who scours the internet and share the takes whether they're smart or not um one of the things that was very popular last week uh was this video shannon sharp and marshawn lynch and marshawn is beloved right like he's a glue guy everyone everyone who's ever been around him says they love the guy and he now feels totally safe airing out old stories of his time with Russ because he knows that the whole player community the media everybody is on board with yeah Russ isn't a great dude like he's just not a great teammate if when it gets to that point where it leaves the locker room and other star players are like, yeah, F that guy. I think that means there's no hope.
Starting point is 00:12:28 There's no turning back. Yeah. So I want to make it clear. I don't know Russell Wilson as a person, right? I mean, like he could be the. I'm sure he's a very nice guy. Nice guy. But very clearly as a teammate, he's not what has been portrayed over the years, right?
Starting point is 00:12:45 So take Aaron Rodgers, for example. We might disagree with Aaron Rodgers, but every teammate he's played with outside of like one loves the guy. I've talked to former Packer players. They love Aaron Rodgers. They love hanging out with him. They love him in the locker room.
Starting point is 00:13:00 They defend him to the end of the earth. Is there one player, former player, one Russell Wilson former player who's come out and said, yeah, everyone else is wrong. That's my guy. No one has come out. No one. And look, the Marshawn Lynch thing, the blocked phone number or whatever, but I thought it was interesting how he said, like,
Starting point is 00:13:18 my house was a place where people came and hung out, and he never came with us. Like, he never come and hung out. And then, like, you know, your quarterback sort of, you don't have to do that all the time obviously but it's nice when the leader of your team kind of just shows up to hang out with everyone like i always like i might have an eli eli would just like come hang out like go to dinner with us like just and he didn't and think about when i was there with the giants is all of us were new it was like a brand new offensive line all his guys had left still hung out with us,
Starting point is 00:13:45 still got to know us, still came out to dinner with us. And it seems very clear that Wilson has not wanted that relationship, has not tried to foster those relationships in the building. And you're right. People are coming out and knives are out to tell their side of the story. I mean, Marshawn Lynch appears loves everyone. Like, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:14:08 And, and to have him to come out and be like, yeah, you know, I didn't really, you know, he cussed, but I didn't really mess with them.
Starting point is 00:14:15 Like, it's just a bad look for Russell Wilson. And I don't know. The Broncos are gonna have to get rid of him after the season. I don't know what that looks like, but it's just, it's obviously not where they want to be. Yeah. Well, live by the quarterback, and it seems die,
Starting point is 00:14:33 at least your cap space dies by the quarterback in this era. I want to talk about the Cowboys. That's my segue. I think most fans can figure out what that segue is all about. So our buddy Kurt Benkert, before the game, before the game, tweeted, think about it, the Cowboys have beaten the 1-4 Giants, the 2-3 Jets, the 1-4 Patriots, and lost to the 1-4 Cardinals. If they get blown out tonight, who are they?
Starting point is 00:14:58 Well, they got blown out. So who the hell are they? What is with the Cowboys, Jeff? So first off, let's praise the team that won. They look awesome. They look like a Super Bowl-caliber team ready to win. And we've done this on this show. Other people have.
Starting point is 00:15:16 Oh, Brock Purdy hasn't played a full season of games yet, blah, blah, blah. Enough. Brock Purdy is good. He's good. Now, if you want to make the caveat he plays well in the offense, great. He does play well in this offense. Every quarterback that wins is part of a system that works for him, right? Or he fits in the system.
Starting point is 00:15:34 Either or. But they play on the system. Yes, he has a great left tackle. He's got Christian McCaffrey. He's got Brandon Ivey. Guess what? He throws fucking missiles to those guys. You see that throw where the number two inside kind of cleared out
Starting point is 00:15:48 and then I think it was IU came in behind. And he threw that ball like before he was even in the picture over Cowboys defender. That caught the ball. I mean, like, come on. Rock Purdy is good. We need to stop the caveats of like, oh, this and that. He has not lost a regular season game yet, Gabe.
Starting point is 00:16:04 He's a good football player. He's a good quarterback. They've scored over 30 points in eight straight regular season games. The guy is good. The Niners looked more physical. They played faster. This was a game for the Cowboys that was a measuring stick game. It was a game where they, as a contender in the NFC,
Starting point is 00:16:22 have to go through Philly and the Niners. And when they play those teams, it's like, okay, can we compete with those teams? The answer is no. Not even close. Not even close. And you pay this quarterback all this money, and who looked better? Brock Purdy did, right? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:16:39 Who looked more complete of a team? The 49ers did. And I said this is why we picked the 49ers to cover this game was the things that the cowboys do well the niners can mitigate you rush the passer well well guess what we're not gonna be in third and long you can't rush the passer well right oh you want to pass the ball we're gonna hit your quarterback like it it was a just a complete ass kicking. And right now it's Niners, Eagles, Chiefs, Dolphins. I think Buffalo's in there too in the NFC side. I think they are.
Starting point is 00:17:12 I'm not counting out the Bengals. The Chargers, we'll see how they play after a bye with Herbert's banged up finger. You know, the Ravens had a tough loss, but the NFC feels like it's very much just those two teams and someone maybe was upset along the way at some point, but the Lions, to me, aren't going into SF or going to Philly and beating those teams in a playoff game.
Starting point is 00:17:33 I mean, the Lions are good. We were wrong about the Lions, I feel like, but they're not beating those teams. I actually think one team that maybe we were wrong. I think we had the Rams over anyways, but the Rams, I think, can be competitive against those teams. Are they beating them? No, the Seahawks are not beating those teams in the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:17:49 So, the Niners just look good, man. Like, they're my Super Bowl favorite right now. I mean, they would have to be. I saw a good stat. You make the Chiefs case, but yeah. Point differential on division leaders. The Niners are, you know, I think plus 99, like way ahead of anyone. And then the Steelers are minus 31. You know, like at this point in the season, records are a little fluky with those three and two type teams.
Starting point is 00:18:18 But a five and O team that's blowing everybody out, including the supposed other contenders in their their conference like it's time to just say they're clearly better you mentioned the dolphins so i'm going to switch back to them because we probably should have hit them as we touched on the chiefs so you know they're still running a track meet and now they add chase claypool because he's fast in mike mcdaniel's words he's just really fast is there any i don't don't know. Let me, how do I ask this? Is there some theory in football? Like if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Like, why would you put a guy in who's seemingly not fit in well now in two locker rooms? Why would you add Claypool? I don't know. Maybe he's a good guy, but two times he hasn't worked. why would you bring him in if everything's working um a good question i i don't know um they could obviously just move off of him if they want to if it's not working out um but i
Starting point is 00:19:15 think you could i think you never have enough good players right like that's part of it as well um and he's a guy that is um talented football player and adding to your team i think they see some value in that ability to add them to you know to add them to the team so that's my only theory about that yeah and i'd worried me a little bit where you start to these teams that get good start to think we can make anyone work because our culture is so good and you know the patriots have suffered from this this uh egotism in the past it's also worked for them in the past like i don't know i think it's a little too early to just assume your locker room's good enough to fix anyone and i i would just not mess with especially when you got two great receivers and
Starting point is 00:19:58 a whole room full of running backs who can carry the ball i think you know again like we're seeing across the league you know how important depth is and it feels like this is just a piece of of depth like let's just get him in there and see what see what we can do if we need him at some point all right well speaking of depth and greedy coaches who always want more playmakers let's talk college football oh george certainly has plenty of options. They're number one still. They beat Kentucky. How about that, by the way?
Starting point is 00:20:29 That Georgia, I thought they'd kill Kentucky. My other podcast, Bear Bets, we talked about this. They're one of those teams that I feel like sort of sleepwalks through the non-important games, and they get sort of a game where Kentucky is 5-0, and everyone's like, oh, is Georgia? And then it's just like they just keep the shit in Kentucky now Kentucky's everyone dimensional offense but god Georgia just dominated that game yeah and it's starting to feel to me like uh we're getting a little separation in the
Starting point is 00:20:58 pack here so Michigan is a similar team and that they just kind of seem like they take care of business. One team that did not, Texas, Hanks, Longhorns, they go down to Oklahoma. USC, my team, I was there with the whole family until very, very, very late at night, Jeff. Not a fun ride. You went with the kids too? Took the kids to a 7.30 kickoff. Wow. Oh, boy. I would never.
Starting point is 00:21:24 They were more alert than usc's defense at least in the first half it was uh it was a scary scary saturday night but usc escaped so they they'll stay where they are you stay for the all the overtimes no in fact we left when we took the lead because i said to the family i was like, guys, I think that's when we left. I said, I'm going to teach you a lesson. You leave now because, you know, we should win this game. So if we don't,
Starting point is 00:21:55 it's going to be a horrible scene here. We don't want to be here for the alternative. So let's get in the car and get home. And they obviously had to go to sleep. We watched the game. I was in my kids like putting my kids to bed lying in bed watching on the phone in the third overtime i have two i mean i have two stories about this type of thing that now obviously i'm a dad now so i sort of get
Starting point is 00:22:16 it but uh ucla usc 1998 um the bruins were down 17 points in the fourth quarter and they're hosting usc and i told my dad like hey uh my dad wanted to leave he's kind of same as you this is ugly the Bruins were down 17 points during the fourth quarter and they're hosting USC. And I told my dad like, hey, my dad wanted to leave. He's kind of same as you. This is ugly. Like, I don't want to be here if this is ugly.
Starting point is 00:22:32 And I was like, dad, let's stay. Let's stay. Come on. Like, why are we leaving? And the Bruins came back and won in double overtime. That was like the best. It was awesome.
Starting point is 00:22:40 It's awesome. Thanks for the chrono there. I appreciate that. And then remember when UCLA came back against A&M with Josh Rosen like many years ago? Yeah, I remember that it happened. I don't remember the details. My dad actually left that game and walked in the house
Starting point is 00:22:55 when UCLA took the lead. He missed the entire thing. So even early, you always don't know what's going to happen. You missed a heck of a game. But the more important thing is that USC is just not going to be a playoff team. That's just that. They should have lost a lot. They should have lost against Arizona.
Starting point is 00:23:12 They have Notre Dame this weekend. They have Utah. They have Washington-Orkin coming up. The takeaway for me with USC is offensively, man, they're scoring points, but there's some concerns for me.
Starting point is 00:23:29 The offense looks much harder than it has to be. I'm telling you right now, today's October 9th. I said at the top of the show, I should remember. There's going to be discussions and a healthy debate about Drake May and Caleb Williams and who goes number one. Because the USC offense does not give Caleb Williams, and maybe this is his fault as well, I do not know. I'm not a quarterback coach.
Starting point is 00:23:52 There's nothing easy. Like, Caleb doesn't do a lot of take a snap, put my foot in the ground, throw the ball. Take a snap, put my foot in the ground, throw the ball. It's a lot of like no one's open. I'm running around making a crazy play. And he is fantastic at those points. It's not a knock at all on Caleb Williams.
Starting point is 00:24:12 You watch Drake May. There's a lot of put my foot in the ground. Throw the ball 15 yards for a first down. He's been a little up and down this year. I'm just telling you guys. The debate's going to be there. So just be ready for it. But yeah, USC is not a contender in my
Starting point is 00:24:25 opinion uh georgia michigan ohio state penn state oregon washington um i think florida state maybe miami which was a horrific loss i think they're still a good football team um a lot of a lot of open this year yeah they uh are the guys that read it cfb on twitter posted what what it would look like if the undefeateds in all of college football played in the 16 team bracket right now a lot of fun to think about we'd have georgia versus harvard yeah uh we usc would draw oklahoma uh the eight nine game not not that's the best one that's the best matchup that's actually a. That's actually a good game. The rest of these are not great.
Starting point is 00:25:08 No, not a lot of great games. The UNC-Oregon game would be a good game. A couple of good quarterbacks there. UNC looked good, man. Well, you're right. The Pac-12 schedule for the next few weeks is going to change a lot of what we think of these teams. Because a few teams are going down. We know that.
Starting point is 00:25:23 And probably the same in the big 10 so i think we can probably hold on college now that deon's calmed things down a little bit i think we come back to college football right around the time the the playoff rankings come out which is halloween i think until then we don't really know what we're looking at well oregon washington's this weekend we'll know which team of those is a playoff contender, I think, after Saturday. If USC beats Notre Dame, you feel better about them, right? Certainly. If they go to South Bend and play some defense for once, that'd be nice.
Starting point is 00:25:56 I mean, Notre Dame's a beatable team. Maybe they forget to put an 11th guy on the field for a little while. Caleb could beat 10 guys. That's no problem i sort of feel like alabama's still kind of hanging around there like alabama's still like one of those teams you were like yeah yeah they're not they're not dead yet i thought a&m would beat them and and it didn't happen no yeah i you know it's a good reminder jeff we're talking a lot about the undefeated teams um it's not that hard to stay undefeated to this point in the season.
Starting point is 00:26:25 The team that got their silly loss out of the way early, that then goes on a run late, and Texas could be in that category. Let's be honest. When we come back to them in a month and a half, and they've won a conference championship, and they still only have one loss, those teams are the teams to be scared of. Yeah, I think the hard part for Texas
Starting point is 00:26:45 is they cannot afford one more loss than they're out of the conference game, most likely. So that's what, you know, as these games, these conference games start happening and a lot of these conferences don't have divisions anymore,
Starting point is 00:26:59 you're going to really see, you know, a big kind of shift in who can win and who can't based off just head-to-heads. Jeff, for the people watching along live, stay with us. For the people listening, we're taking a quick break. We'll come right back. And we got some picks for tonight's game, Monday night.
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Starting point is 00:29:15 bold enough you can make your own and see how smart you are in football which won't be as smart as me go download vaulted spelled v-l-t-e-d and remember to use the code jeff that's g-e-o-E-D, and remember to use the code Jeff. That's G-E-O-F-F. So you can see my predictions and play along. All right, Jeff, we're back. It's time to make people some money, make them a little smarter on Monday Night Football. Packers, Raiders, what's the play tonight?
Starting point is 00:29:43 Yeah, so a game that I'm not terribly interested in. This is why I'm glad we're partnering with PrizePix because it gives you a way to root for things in a game where you don't have a side, a total, or don't really have a rooting interest in who wins or loses. So we're going to build a three-score entry for Monday Night Football. Promo code is GSSY. Match up to $100. Come play along.
Starting point is 00:30:01 It's a lot of fun to do. Here we go. You ready? I'm going Jordan Love more than 235.5 passing yards he's been over this three out of four games so far this season gabe he you know the packers had not played terribly well against the lions i think they bounced back they've had a lot of time right that was a thursday game all the way to monday night now i feel like they're going to sort of get things right against the Raiders defense that's not terribly good, that, again, doesn't really have playmakers where you think to yourself,
Starting point is 00:30:32 man, this guy's going to make a difference in the secondary to slow down a passing attack for the Packers. So I'm going to correlate that with Christian Watson over 43.5 receiving yards. Because if I think Love's going to go over, Watson presumably goes over as well, right? So put those two together. And the other one I have is Max Crosby over a quarter of a sack.
Starting point is 00:30:54 So a half sack qualifies. A full sack qualifies. I feel like there's a really – the sack market is poor, and there's a way to take advantage of it in a lot of these games. You have a Packers offensive line that is a little beat up and you have a pass rusher in Max Crosby who is fantastic. I need half a sack.
Starting point is 00:31:15 Half a sack. If two guys need the backfield, if Dronov falls down, he touches him, chases him out of bounds. There's so many ways for this to happen. Max Crosby has four sacks so Like, there's so many ways for this to happen. Max Crosby has four sacks so far this season. So, I need a half a sack.
Starting point is 00:31:29 So, I'm going Jordan Love more than 235.5 passing yards. Max Crosby more than a quarter of a sack. And Kristen Watson more than 43.5 receiving yards. That's it. There we go. That's a way to watch the game tonight. That's a nice play. I think I like it.
Starting point is 00:31:47 I have questions, though. I notice you're not going anywhere near the Raiders passing game. It was weird a week or two ago when Devontae Adams basically was like, I ain't waiting around for this thing to get figured out. And then I feel like we just all moved past that. I don't know why we did, but maybe Deion Sanders just dominated so much of the news that we just didn't drill into that. It looks like he and Jimmy G are going.
Starting point is 00:32:11 When do we have to take them seriously? If they win tonight, do we have to kind of look at the Raiders a little bit? No. No, right? Look at them for what purpose? Just to look at them physically? I like their uniforms. Jeff, you have to acknowledge that you are very, very hard on them.
Starting point is 00:32:27 You are very hard on them. And even if they were good, I don't think you'd say it. Because they suck. They're not good. They're not. They were good. They went to the playoffs, what, three years ago now? Was that two years ago now?
Starting point is 00:32:44 They snuck in with the interim coach and then the interim coach um but here's here's the raiders they won six games last season ten the year before so that was the year they went with with a gruden basacia eight wins seven wins four wins six wins oh a 12 win season in 2016 well that's car. That was your Carr broke his ankle, right? He lost. 7, 3, 4, 4, 8, 8, 5, 5, 4, 2, 4, 5, 4. Like, are we supposed to – how am I supposed to respect that, Gabe? No, you don't have to. I'm just making sure we're clear. So you like the Packers offense tonight,
Starting point is 00:33:21 even though you also like Max Crosby dragging Love down, at least being part of a team that brings him down. I just need half a sack. That feels like the sack market. So on our preview show this year, we hit, I think, three sack numbers. Because I feel like last year we hit them as well, just Bosa. But I feel like the sack numbers every year don't correlate with what actually happens on the field. So we have Watt over 13.5 sacks.
Starting point is 00:33:51 I think he's already at 6 or 7. Michael Parsons over 12.5 sacks. The sack market is a place I feel like the preseason odds do not match up with what we see happening on the field. Well, I'll tell you what. I think it's just a perception one has eight sacks already water he has eight sacks so i think that we're all still living through this moment where we're getting used to the idea of one extra game a year and our sort of the water level for what we think of a good statistical season is is a is a little bit higher it's about six or eight percent higher than you know it and we haven't adjusted everything yet so you think of a guy as having wow he had like you mentioned juju earlier what 78 catches like
Starting point is 00:34:37 that is pretty good for a second or third receiver yeah but it's actually that's really like the old world like 60 something receptions you know what i mean like it's not as great as it sounds because you get the extra game that's that's fair um but the sack thing again i mean watt has has eight and we have over 13 and a half sacks so i think we're gonna hit that one we i'm looking at the wagers man we made some good ones and some bad ones oh oh man only good ones today man. Only good ones today, Jeff. Only good ones today. We hit them today. All right, Gabe.
Starting point is 00:35:08 I think that's it. We've gone through everything. You have our prize picks information for tonight. Hope you guys enjoy the game. We'll be back on Friday with another wagering preview for the NFL Sunday ahead. The Chiefs are favored by 10.5, I believe, for Thursday night, Gabe. I think they'll take the Chiefs are favored by 10 and a half i believe for thursday night gabe um i would i think they'll take the chiefs there all right take them to cover that i think you made it pretty clear earlier you like the chiefs yeah the broncos stink that's mostly why all right everyone have a
Starting point is 00:35:36 good uh weekend or assuming good week we'll talk to you guys on friday take care everybody

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