Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - NFL Week 6 Reactions: Matt and Geoff Gambling Gurus

Episode Date: October 16, 2023

Matt Ford makes his first appearance on a Monday episode of the season to react to their insanely hot gambling streak bringing their record to 19-9-2 on the season. Plus they talk about all the teams around the league, Lions are elite, Jets are not, Patriots are tough to watch, and they place a bonus bet on a team to make the playoffs in the NFC for plus money!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Monday, October 16th. I'm Jeff Schwartz. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smart. You are live on Twitter, YouTube, on your favorite podcast platform of choice. Our Monday episode is brought to you by PrizePix. It's a skill-based, real-money, daily fantasy sports game. Go to PrizePix and use code GSSY for a first deposit match up to $100. You pick two to six players.

If they will go more or less than the PrizePix projection, you can win up to 25 times your money on any entry. We're making my selections for tonight's game, the football game between the Cowboys and the Chargers at the end of the show. So stay tuned for that. And a rare Monday where Matt Ford is in. And Matt's in today because we want to celebrate

a four-in-one weekend on this show. Matthew, we are now 19-9-1 in Broncos, and we have 20 points so far through six weeks. I did not think that was possible. We have never been this good in the National Football League, but we continue to take some ugly dogs. And, you know, the one thing that this year we're doing a little differently

is we are sprinkling a couple of those favorites, like the Lions, which you loved, which I didn't really have a feel for. Like, no, we're taking the Lions. We're doing a little differently. We are sprinkling a couple of those favorites, like the Lions, which you loved, which I didn't really have a feel for. Like, no, we're taking the Lions. We're doing it. I get it's a road team, but the Bucs stink, which is good, because I have a Tampa Bay under eight and a half ticket. And, Matt, we're doing good in the NFL. We're flying, Jeff.

Life's good. 19-9-1 in Broncos. You can't beat that. I don't know. I feel like we've uh we've cracked a few things i feel like this slate just sort of makes a bit of sense next week's gonna separate the men from the boys next week is is an ugly ass week it's also this week there's yeah and there's a lot of teams that aren't playing next week there's a bunch of teams on by i think there's

three fewer games next week than there were this week um there's some there's some really ugly ones there's some like the i the we've got miami philly next week which is going to be amazing i'm sure we'll talk about that it could be on oh i'm looking at we get a road steelers plus three next week at the rams oh sign me up yeah underdog steel sign me up any any day of the week all right let's get to what we saw yesterday in the national football league yeah so obviously the big stories are the eagles and the 49ers finally go down um so we've got five five and one teams and then there's a bunch of other teams that are lingering that we'll get to but you know there's there's definitely some teams that have stood out and there's definitely some teams that i think have some question marks attached to their five and ones but obviously those five are the chiefs the dolphins

the eagles the niners and the lions maybe we should just go through and rank those five who do you feel most confident in and who do you feel least out of that group so the 49ers to me are still number one matt you know you you can have games in the nfl where you don't play as one you lose like that's part of the nfl it's don't play as one you lose like that's part of the nfl it's not like college football where you lose a game your season's over nine still five and one and we called this we bet on the browns right this was the game for nine hours to have a little bit of regression you know they had gotten all the attention all the love and they had scored what 30 points at a straight regular season games purdy had never lost a regular season game like

everything was going was was sky high for the niners right you're going on the road you're playing a browns team starting pj walker it's a little bit wet and damp and like they were going to lose this game and to me matt it changes nothing about how i feel about them did you for you to change anything nothing whatsoever like this was just a natural progression the nfl yeah that's right and i mean this is the kind of game the 49ers lose it's it's key guys go down the situation like like like yeah like if this is the kind of game the 49ers lose it's it's key guys go down the situation like like like yeah like if this is the chiefs i'd be like yeah they're probably gonna lose this game like this is what the nfl is yeah i i mean let's stay on this side to maybe go out of order a bit here so brock purdy he's gonna be the big he's been the big roar shock test for

for take guys for a long time um he had a really ugly game and then had a pretty good final drive he made a couple of really nice throws um and guys were getting open but like he has some gas on those like out routes like he looked pretty good at the end of the game i'm sort of curious if you know same question back for for the team that back for brock pretty like did he did your opinion change about him at all, or do you feel like he kind of played the way he thought he would? I think the question now becomes what we have sort of discussed at times. It's like, is it Brock Purdy?

Is it the offense? Is it the weapons? All three? Because when McCaffrey and Debo went out, the offense does change. Now, that's the same way everywhere, right? But is he a quarterback that can elevate his offense without all his weapons there there are other quarterbacks who certainly can the nfl i'm not sure brock pretty does that in the same manner other guys do but again matt he hasn't even played a full season of games yet like he's still this is like his rookie season still he hasn't played 16 games including the playoff games last year so he's still learning i think how to figure out the n when he doesn't have his main guys there.

And McCaffrey has too many reps. He was bound to get dinged up, which he always does. But, you know, they kind of beat him to death over the first six weeks, which is funny because Shanahan had said they wanted to sort of give him, like, you know, less of a workload. They did none of that. You know, Debo always takes a couple weeks off from injury. And this is kind of standard for the Niners.

The question becomes, obviously, they play the Vikings, I'm looking at right now, next Monday night in Minnesota. So how do you bounce back on it? The Vikings are not very good. I know they beat the Bears. But if you bounce back and play fine, I think we're okay with the Niners. We know what they are. It is interesting, Randy Gregory got cut by the Broncos

or traded to the Niners, whichever it worked, comes in sack right away. You know, like the Niners just roll these guys in. I mean, it's unbelievable. I think the story here, by the way, and we're not going to, I think, touch on them very much in the show, but I want to bring attention to this. The Browns defense is incredible. The Browns have allowed the fewest yards through five games since 1971 and the third fewest ever through five games. They have four of the five best defensive performances, according to EPA, in the first six weeks of the season. This defense is really freaking good, dude.

Like, it's a legitimate Super Bowl championship defense. The question is obviously offensively, are they able to kind of do enough to win offensively? But the Browns defense, I think the credit that the Browns get is valid. The criticism the Niners might get for the loss is valid. But to me, it doesn't change at all how I feel about them. The one team that I do sort of change is the Eagles, right? The Eagles lost to the Jets.

And I think the reason why the Eagles lost changes for me a little bit is because they've sort of been showing these weaknesses right offensively not explosive this season just not running the ball quite as well like things are aren't going as well right and then you you have a jets game we score 14 points in the first quarter i believe excuse me by halftime and then don't score again i know there were turnover issues i mean that throw bite by jalen hurts at the end of the game it's like for for as good as he is you can't have that throw right and the eagles have been itching for this loss they really have um and it finally happens now like they play the dolphins this weekend maybe things change around but i feel like through six

games now we sort of have the understanding that their offense is just not as good i know numbers i think there's some numbers that show them, even from last year in EPA and things like that. But I don't know about that. My eye test kind of says they're not as good. And it hurt them in this game. And Lane Johnson, by the way, needs another raise because Lane Johnson went out the right tackle.

Their offense went to shit. I mean, it was bad. So it changes a little bit about the way I feel about the Eagles because they've been itching for this loss. They haven't played particularly well in a lot of action, which, by the way, the Chiefs are, like, begging for a loss too. We'll talk about them in a second. And so I downgrade them just a little bit,

but not to the point where I'm like, no, they're not winning the East or not getting a Super Bowl appearance. Like, they're downgraded a little bit. Now for the Eagles, I want to see how they come back from this, right? And General Hertz talked a little bit about this. And we've been here before, which I certainly have. But now you play a really good Dolphins team,

who in my opinion is sort of the second best team in the NFL behind the Niners. Like, do you, how do you come back? Like you're playing a team that's going to score in the upper 20s, low 30s, most likely, not guaranteed. You know the eagles get some guys back on defense they should be better but are you going to be able to to match their offensive output in a way that you easily would have done last season

yeah a lot to react to there i mean i think the uh to the eagles thing like this is a good reminder that most of the time the teams that lose a super bowl do not start the next season that fast and the eagles have been the exception five no again um obviously like last year or two years ago at the bangles um when they or no last year they they started four and four then they ended up being 12 and four after that but a lot of the time it takes a little while to sort of coalesce um and they lost both coordinators and you know they've you know whole new running attack like they have a they have a ton of new a ton of new stuff going on with that team i'm not surprised that they lost it was sort of like the the the browns 49ers matchup just like tough defense they've just like looked flat um and if it feels like

the eagles like they don't generally make the kind of mistakes that they made sunday like they they sort of take what's in front of them so i'm not super worried about them but i do feel like them playing the dolphins is going to be super interesting like the dolphins it's the the interesting thing about these teams is is like the lions and the Niners, to me, and the Eagles, kind of have the same sort of team-building philosophy, it seems like. The Lions, when they got that touchdown to Jamison Williams, you were just sort of like, how many guys do they have? They don't have the stars.

They don't have Mahomes and Kelsey. They just have a lot of different guys who can beat you. And good Lions. A very good roster. Yeah, they're just solid. And the niners are kind of both like they have all these stars but then they also just have like you mentioned gregory and just all these guys who can just come up and win games for you and the eagles are like that too like the eagles just they're just sort of like okay maybe it's aj brown's day okay maybe it's goddard's day okay maybe it's you know the offensive line just grounds them down and it's just swift and game all day like it's AJ Brown's day. Okay. Maybe it's Goddard's day. Okay. Maybe it's, you know, the offensive line just grounds them down and it's just swift and game all

day. Like it's interesting. Whereas, you know, chiefs kind of just like, it's just how far can the homes take you in this defense has been great so far. And then the dolphins, like what is happening? Like, how are they? Like they, I don't know how anyone is going to stop them if they're healthy. Like it doesn't matter who's running the ball for them. It doesn't matter. Like, if Waddle and Hill are out there, they can just do whatever they want.

And so I have a feeling they could make a real statement this week against Philly. I like them as dogs. I know they'll be on the road and Philly will be off a loss. But, like, I just don't know how you stop them if they're clicking on offense. Well, what Buffalo did, right? You're physical and you hit the wide receivers and you get to two. I mean, like, this is a game where the Eagles' defensive line, you know, they can make the difference in this game.

If you get pressure on two, he's not the same quarterback, which a lot of quarterbacks are not the same. But the Dolphins, to me, that's why I have the Niners one still, Dolphins two. I mean, the Lions, dude, they might be that's why I have the Niners one still, Dolphins two. I mean, the Lions, dude, they might be the third best team in the NFL right now. I'm not counting the head-to-head win against the Chiefs as a reason why.

I mean, that game, we know the Chiefs should have won that game. I'm just looking at the way they're playing. They're playing good football, man. Look, they have built themselves in the offensive-defensive lines. And look at the teams that we're talking about, the Eagles, the Niners, even the Chiefs. It's offensive-defensive lines. Like, they're doing this with Jared Goff,

who couldn't win a game outside of Sean McVay ever. Now, all of a sudden, Jared Goff is throwing dimes to Williams. Like, they've done – they just have a very good roster, and they play a physical brand of football. That was an impressive win. I know Tampa's not good, but to go on the road with all the hype you've had, to play outside on grass in a little bit of weather, I mean hot weather compared to where you normally play, it's a big, impressive win, man.

We see a lot of times favorites go on the road in this situation and lose. They kicked Tampa's butt. A lot of times favorites go on the road in this situation and lose. And they kicked Tampa's butt. And so to me, I think they're the third best team. The Montgomery, dude, I know that it's not fun to root for injuries, but our running back under thing we did this year is going to hit like 70% of these guys. No one says healthy in this position, Matt.

Like no one does. I mean, McCaffrey is close to being over already, but he's already getting beat up. It's week six. It's week six already. I think Ricky Mustard might be the only one we don't hit. Like everybody else I feel like you're going to hit on the others. It's wild.

Quarterbacks too. I mean, we took a bunch of quarterback unders, and unfortunately those guys got hurt. We do have some overs, though. Mahomes might not get us over, by the way, and we'll talk about the Chiefs right now, I guess. The Chiefs are 5-1. They have the best point differential they've had

under Patrick Mahomes through six weeks. The defense is legitimately good, Matt. It's a good defense. So the question question is are they going to figure out an offense I don't know what do you think yes I vote yes Matt I vote yes they figure out on offense um they need the intermediate guy in in the wide receiving room maybe it's Rasheed Rice who's played better last couple weeks he has the most targets outside of Travis Kelsey so I think there's a little bit of of of growth there with my homes and him Watson being out kind of hurts. I think the offense,

obviously Kelsey been a little beat up, but Thursday night, get a little bit break, come back up with the chargers on Sunday. That game, by the way, is going to be close. Cause every charger chiefs game is three points.

The charges treat it like the super bowl. And I, I have no worry about them. Like they're five and one and they haven't played grand offense and that's the best thing they do so they're gonna be fine dude i'm it doesn't worry me at all but i think right now that you could put them fifth and i'd be okay with that yeah a couple things on that the first the point differential thing i saw that tweeted out a bunch it's like yeah well they beat the bears by a thousand so that's like that's definitely tilting the scales in the direction the chiefs never blow

anyone out they blow out the bears they won by by 30 um so that's one thing the other thing the chiefs thing is like i do think the defense is going to probably come back to earth a bit they're they're they're over their skis they're playing amazing they deserve credit you know let's see if it lasts starting next week with the chargers the offense like yeah it it will it will continue to to improve i i'm guessing um but i think it it sort of goes back to yeah it you know what you were saying about jalen hurts a minute ago where it's like he made that you know he made one bad pass it was about time like mahomes just doesn't make those like mahomes just doesn't ever put them in a position it feels like i mean he did you know, he made one bad pass. It was about time. Like my homes just doesn't make those like my homes just doesn't ever put them in a position. It feels like Amy, he did, you know,

the Detroit game, he had a few, he probably wants back, but they weren't all his fault, obviously. But like, he just doesn't make the kind of mistakes that every other quarterback makes. Like we saw Josh Allen make last night. Like we saw, you know, we see every quarterback make every week. So as long as he's there the chiefs have the highest floor of any team in the league but i i don't necessarily think like we should pencil them in for another super bowl run they just don't seem like they have the horses at the moment but somebody's gonna have to knock them off and when you look at the rest of the afc you know who's it gonna be is it gonna be the dolphins can two actually in the in you know

january in the cold maybe an arrowhead like make that third and sixth throw like that's that's the thing is like we know mahomes can we don't know if any you know we don't we don't really know if brock purdy can yet we don't we've seen jared goff do it at times let's see if he can still do it um so it'll it'll be really interesting it's a long season and i think the chiefs have the best perspective on that like they super bowls aren't won in october um maybe the dolphins are gonna feel like a team that felt that way but i i definitely am not like penciling them in for much um but i you know i am impressed that they're able to just sort of march through people without a ton of talent around the homes though yeah i i agree with you i don't want my voice to spike there yeah um but i think that uh i think they'll be i think they will be fine um you know moving forward so i'm not as concerned about them the

question i think is you know who's sort of next right because you look at i think the the afc only has two teams under 500 the, the Patriots and three. The Patriots, Titans, and Broncos. We'll get to the Patriots. Yeah. And otherwise, so you have four and two Bills, who the Bills have now lost to the Jets and Jacksonville, right, but didn't look particularly good last night.

Even though, Matt, you said it, man, before entering Week 6. Like, Week 6 is the weird week, and the Bills played a weird football game last night. They did. Ravens are four and two. Steelers are three and two which is crazy because if they go on the road and beat the rams or next weekend they're four and two wow they're off a buy two oh man i'd like that steelers game plus three in los angeles it'd be a steelers home game essentially right and the rams have no one there um yeah browns are three and two don't have their quarterback right now um the South is a wreck I don't know why the standings have it backwards here they have Jackson oh this is funny

I did this backwards that's why um Jackson was gonna win that division the culture three and three I I'm so glad we went on the fake Gardner Minshew train people love him so much for playing well five years ago right it's crazy to me um and then you know the chiefs obviously the raiders and the chargers play tonight i think they win who knows but you know there'll be a couple games behind the chiefs there so i i mean are the jets legitimately they're three and three are they a legitimate like playoff caliber team right now it feels like the jets are talking themselves into the special team season. Like the way that they were playing every game,

even the games they've lost, you know, they could have beaten new England's and one of their losses, like they, they, they play hard and their defense, it's, you know, there there's,

there, they feel a little bit like Cleveland where it's just sort of like the defense just straps up and is like, we're going to win. Like, yeah, just, just hang in there. And Zach Wilson, like I saw a tweet that was a joke I think but like when you look at who he's played in these quarterbacks like he's kept up with Jalen

Hurts and Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen like he hasn't looked like an absolute embarrassment like he has in the past like i think he maybe has turned a bit of a corner because i think his team believes in him like i think a lot of it was mental he obviously can throw so i i don't know man like maybe they see rogers around and they're like hey if we just get this guy back like i yeah i don't think that that's actually happening but all they need to do is believe and they have such a good defense. Their fans were bought in. Like it just felt like everyone's just not ready for this sort of special

season to end. Like I think I'm buying them as at least like a team that's going to get them be in the mix, but I can't believe I'm saying that. So by week giants, chargers, Raiders falcons texans dolphins commanders browns patriots so you're playing you know the chargers who might be a playoff team the bills the dolphins for sure dolphins again the commanders that'll probably fight tooth and nail to you know to get close to a wild card birth the browns that might be a playoff team and the patriots you can never beat i mean here's here's the rounds just under today what's the under gonna be actually nine oh no that game oh geez there

might be I mean there are places that put up you know put up numbers for you know weeks later um I wonder if that's up yet but here's so here's a deal um okay let's look at the AFC so if we we take the top four teams right now, okay? It's the Chiefs, Dolphins, Ravens, Jaguars. Then you have Buffalo. So those are five quarterbacks you would expect to be in the playoffs, all right? Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Colts, Texans, Jets, Raiders, Bengals, and the Chargers haven't played yet, the fifth game yet.

So the first, we got five teams. Chiefs, so you have Mahomes, Tua, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Josh Allen, all right? Let's just say that the Chargers and Bengals are up there, so by the end of the season, right? So then you have Justin Herbert and you have Joe Burrow. Let's say Deshaun Watson comes back in play, so you have Deshaun Watson in the mix.

Is Zach Wilson going to take a playoff spot from Herbert or Burrow or like or Deshaun Watson like who's he taking that playoff spot from right because one of those teams has to be out one of those teams has to be out like yeah you see I mean I can see the Chargers blowing it and he's taking the Chargers spot but like it would be shocking to me if they made it in over the chargers or the bangles at this moment yeah the bangles i i think you're right and i think the jets are going to be fun and they're going to be a fun team to watch compete for another few weeks until maybe the wheels fall off like you know there are one or two people away on their team from like if they were to lose Garrett Wilson not obviously not rooting for that or like one or two key pieces on the defense

like things could sort of fall apart quickly and those things you know it's football that happens um let's talk about the Bengals and maybe the Bills for a second because they both had sort of these ugly wins I it's every week people are doing the like where are you on the bangles thing i look i think the bangles are going to be completely fine i would not count them out in that division um like we were talking about on thursday like their defense is going to round into form it's whether their offense uh can actually you know turn things around if burrow's healthy and i think like they they're not playing well yet and they're still winning games like seattle they like that was an ugly ass game but they just gino did not there were opportunities you know just didn't play well i don't know i i don't know

if i put that that win on the bangles or more than the seahawks and gino just didn't do a good job i don't know i haven't watched that film back yet. Just watch it on TV. That's the way I felt. Yeah. Well, their pass rushes looked great all year, the Bengals. I just think, like, the Bengals, to me, they have to figure out their running game. Like, it doesn't feel like Mixon's there quite as much, and it feels like without that second back, like, they've really struggled.

But I'm still buying them. I think the Ravens are a team that's – I don't know what that team is you know nice win but like they almost let that one get away from them it feels like they just play a bad quarterback every week and at some point they're gonna fall back to earth um I don't know man the AFC's the AFC's a mess it just feels like if if they're all playing catch up behind the Chiefs and Dol and then the bills last night i'm pissed that we put caroline in our picks and not and not the giants because all game it just sort of like i

i don't know about you i didn't feel surprised at all that the bills came out slow like every single we talk about this on the thursday show yeah teams coming back from london always start slow and like yeah the jags didn't but the jags go every year and the Jags were there for two weeks. Like we shouldn't know in Buffalo was going to start slow and that the Giants were going to throw everything they had at this game. I don't know. I, I, I don't take a ton out of that one for Buffalo. Like they still won.

I think in a few weeks, no one will even remember that game, but I'm curious if you, if you think there were more warning signs than uh than that uh i mean the the bills just they're they feel like untrustworthy right like you have a game where you beat the dolphins by 28 and then you have other games in the season when you lose to jacksonville by five in in london lose the jets by six and you barely beat the Giants. They're just not very trustworthy, I don't think. The Chiefs, we at least say, okay, well, they've won two Super Bowls.

They sort of have this rhythm down. The Bills haven't done that. The Bills haven't even played in a Super Bowl yet. So the inconsistency, I remember two years ago, they were the highest variance team, which means that week to week, they had the most variance of any team. So one they're good one week they're worth a bad it feels like we're gonna encroach on that territory again this year yeah that is feels like it just they they feel like they have earned this oh we can take a few weeks off we can sort of lose control

like you said the Kansas City does they haven't earned it and they they act like they're they act like a lot they've accomplished a lot more than they have and I feel like it's you know it can come to bite them but next couple weeks New England's Tampa at Cincy always that game will be insane uh for a lot of reasons then it's like Denver Jets i don't know they have a few easy ones on the schedule but man they do they then go at philly at kc there's a lot of tests for buffalo um it'll be interesting with miami way up their heels there's a few fun games coming up all these teams we talk about like the bangles come out for the buy and put a niners bills back-to-back weeks

like there's some fun there's some fun games coming up here as we get closer to the end of the middle point of the NFL season. Anything else NFL related? I don't know what the Rams are. What are the Rams? What are the Rams?

I have no idea. I think, and we were texting about this a bit yesterday, I think that Sean McVay has rounded the corner from, like, everyone was so in on him that he was, and now he's underrated. Like, we were talking before the season about what a dead team they were. Like, he's created stars out of Kyron Williams, out of Puka Nakua. Like, the offensive line is holding up like they're I mean that you watch that them play yesterday they couldn't get anything done in

the first half it was this ugly game and then they they just ran the same running play a hundred times the second half and they couldn't stop Kyron Williams and he had 150 rushing yards like he's a good coach like I i just i don't know like yeah he's not mentioned in the same sort of breath i think because he had so much talent a few years ago when they won the super bowl but like the guy just wins games and i like i don't know i i'm i think that they're just sort of like they're kind of like the stealers like they're just one of these teams that's just like if in it in the general if it's a toss-up, you want to bet on the good coach. Yeah, we had Rams over 6.5, plus 110 for our preview show.

Yeah. I think that was for you. I didn't like that one. I think that's on you. Stafford over 3,600 yards. I mean, he looks well on the way to doing that, right? We just assumed if he was healthy this season, he would be able to throw for a lot of yards.

So far, he's at 1677. So, I think we're in good shape. Yeah, I figured the cool-up might go over 3600 yards. I mean, he was the leading receiver in the NFL until last week. Sanford's on pace for 4700 yards. So, I think we're okay. I think we can hit that if he

stays healthy. So, I'm just curious. I think you're right about McVay. And I think when we look at this roster, there's like 35 new players on this roster, right? They're going to have trouble getting it together. And they just haven't, man. Like they're plus one on point differential. They just come to play each week.

Now, actually, again, I'm curious about them playing the Steelers this week. I do think that the Arizona Cardinals, the fun has worn off of them. They kind of reverted back to being bad. And they're on the road in Seattle this weekend. It's minus eight right now. I'm going to write an article after this for Fox Sports. I kind of do an early preview for the week. Seattle minus eight is going to be one of my plays.

The Cardinals are sort of done. I mean mean they've lost the last three weeks 19 points 14 points and what uh yesterday was what uh was 17 points all right like that was fun but they're like not they kind of came back to earth now like they're they sort of dobbs got figured out no No James Conner. And they're just not as good anymore. Like, they beat the Cowboys. That was great. But, like, we have Cardinals under four and a half. That thing's probably going to hit. I think no one thought that was going to be the case.

But they're just not – they kind of just hit the wall again. Not even again. They're just not a good roster. They came out fast. They're just not good. Not good. It's okay well i don't think that's a hot take at all i to go back to the rams for a second

you the thing you did in the afc let's do in the nfc it's like if stafford's healthy who's who's taking this so obviously the eagles the lions someone from the nfc south and the niners are the players oh the nfc is this time no just a terrible okay so who's getting so dallas probably then you know so that's five then it's basically between like maybe the packers hold on hold on okay so it's Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy, Jared Goff. And whatever is in the – yeah, Dak and an NFC South quarterback. Then here's the rest of the options. You ready? Probably Heineken is probably the bet there.

Geno, Stafford, Howell, Ritter, Carr, Love, Cousins, whatever is playing for the Bears now that Fields is hurt, Daniel Jones, Josh Dobbs, and Bryce Young. You know what? I'm going to actually find – I'm going to find a Rams, make the playoffs wager right now and see where it's at because that feels like a good place to put – someone to put their money on right now.

That's crazy. And it's – they get the cardinals again like they they they have like a pretty i mean they have like a pretty decent chance and i don't know man it's betting on mcveigh and stafford like i don't think that's crazy and it's like tell me the other teams in the nfc like oh my god wait rams recent playoffs right now is plus 115 yes i like it right i think we should put that let's throw that in our season-long bets we still we usually make a few during this yeah i think we have like i think we have like 300 bucks left and uh after we all i did eventually go back and and put all our weight put all our money on our wagers uh which we did obviously like in in time, but I did put it on the dock.

So I went back and fixed all that. All right. So I just went through the account and found all my wagers. I mean, it took a while, but we figured it out. All right. Here we go. I'm going to put this right here. Rams make the playoffs.

We have Raiders' worst record, and that's not going to happen, unfortunately. Rams to make playoffs. Plus 115. Yeah, I guess they probably are going to lose most of their games. Real quick, speaking of worst record, I just wanted to take – I know we've gone a little bit long in the NFL here. I think we've got to take two minutes to laugh at the Patriots. Like this is – of all of the stories of this year we have the patriots we took them over

which i think was still like it makes sense mac jones was not this bad uh they had some nice pieces um we talked ourselves into belichick like everyone else did and like here we go like i the thing about the patriots that's so strange is like you look at their roster dude and it's like people talk about should they sell their team for parts. Who's buying anything on their team? What do they have? There's nothing. There's nothing there.

And then sometimes you look at these bad teams or these teams that have sort of taken things apart and you go like, man, they have some players that are playing pretty well elsewhere around the league. The Patriots don't even have that like they haven't drafted the only player who they've had on their roster in the last five years who's anything is jacoby myers who had a really nice game against them for the raiders but like they haven't even drafted guys that have had success elsewhere they have just gotten nothing for damn near half a decade on this team and watching them fall apart it's it's not even fun it's sad like you're watching this team just like they have no horses they don't seem to play that hard and they're just getting i mean the fact that bill belichick lost to josh mcdaniels and brian hoyer off of a fucking safety like what is happening with this team like it's like it's

bad they're very bad if you change the uniform and the coaching staff you'd think it was like nat hackett and the broncos last year like it's that level again just like apocalyptic so you have the patriots the broncos the bears giants cardinals and panthers at one and five or worse the panthers are oh and six if you were to play if you're the patron to play the broncos the bears the giants cardinals and panthers which of those teams do you absolutely pick the patriots to beat none of them i think the panthers would beat them i honestly do like the panthers can move the ball they don't do it well but they can like are the are the patriots getting to 17 against anyone that's not the raiders

like i just i don't see like the the panthers are at least try like i just don't even think the the picture they have the second worst point differential in the nfl in the worst of the giants who lost 40 nothing and whatever they lost to the other team uh by a thousand points so um uh that's yeah it's it's sad it's it's it's kind of great but it is sort of sad like you want them to at least it's like they like the the patriots fans don't even sweat their season they're they're so they're they're they're they're on kayla williams watch 100 yeah if they get get Caleb Williams after all this, I'm going to be so mad. They don't deserve it. That would be like the Luck Manning thing

and the Rodgers-Farb thing all over again. Not worth it. Speaking of Caleb Williams, should we move on to the comments? Yeah, let's do it. Yeah. All right. All right, so let's start there. So Caleb Williams had his first bad game, I guess, ever. And Notre Dame won a big game for what also felt like the first time I caught the end of that one. Why don't we start there? Like, did you think that there was any actual warning signs for Caleb looking ahead? Or did you feel like this was just sort of bound to happen as you know a young player goes through his college career um well usu is not very good like that's i mean they're

they're not as good as as the record indicates or the way that they that they're framed as um they're just their offensive line has not been good this year it's been kayla boy was trying to save the day which he tried to do too much of this game the defense played better this game but isn't great um they allowed a punt return to that're just not they even the reason why i picked no no to win this game was they've been itching itching for this to happen they have not played good football in the last month they played a nordane team that we we looked at the louisville game and thought way too much about that was a game they were bound to lose they lost no name just out physicaled them they out tough them um. And Lincoln Riley, I talked about this maybe last week on my radio show,

on my Pac-12 show. The story they talk about Riley, they've asked about the NFL. He hasn't said no. He didn't say no. He's like, the better hours, no recruiting. That's what he said. Matt, it feels like a lot of dysfunction there. Not a lot of buy-in. So here's my college football.

I've been getting to this take for a while now. It's about, and I've been out west. I cover the Pac-12 for a living, so I see it most out west. So there's two teams built primarily through the transfer portal. That's USC and Colorado. And it's so hard, in my opinion, to build your offensive defensive lines through the portal that typically is the backbone of your team, right?

It's where the most physicality comes from. It's where the leadership comes from. So when times are tough, you go back to the offensive defensive lines. And when you don't have those guys from like 18 years old in the weight room, building together, battling together, and you just sort of throw them all into all in the pot at once. You don't get like this, this, this sort of team toughness, right? This sort of team bonding.

And we're seeing it happen. I saw a video that I love the Colorado puts these videos out. Well, it was either, I think it was a coach or a scout basically said, Hey guys, you have terrible practice habits. There's no leadership here. I see you. You're, you're, you're bitching about your coach. I hear all of this. And that's like my point. You've 85% of your team is transfer portal players. They're mercenaries, right? They don't have that deep connection to the program. The coach is not coming in when they're 18 years old and instilling sort of like the team culture in you. And when you come there as a mercenary, you're there to play. When you don't play, you get upset that you're not playing, right?

And then it kind of – that sort of – that mentality sort of bleeds its way through the program. I just think it's hard to build a team in the portal in those positions. And when you do that, like USC has tried to do it on the defensive line, on the offensive line, that foundation's sort of not there. And I just think that's a big problem with the transfer portal. Maybe it's nothing. I'm talking to other teams that feel that same way around the country to me,

but specifically talking to USC, man, they don't have – coaching's a problem on defense, obviously, but they kind of don't have like USC guys, right? Guys that sort of have been in the program that feel that USC pride, right? I know that everyone's prideful for their team. I get that. But sometimes like you just need to kick someone's ass and you need to have those guys.

Notre Dame, by the way, they did that. They kicked USC's ass in the trenches. I don't know. Maybe it's a bunch of hot air about the pool. I love this. But I do feel like it's been floating there for a while. Look, Oregon, for example, I know we lost to Washington. We should have won the game.

It is what it is. Washington won. You got to find a way to win these games. I don't want to tell you, Oregon fans. Matt, I have this. I haven't tweeted this out yet because I just don't want the dumb people on my Twitter. I'm going to pull it up right now, though. So everyone talks about fourth downs, right? Oregon want the dumb people on my Twitter. I'm going to pull it up right now, though. So everyone talks about, you know, fourth downs, right?

Oregon was 0 for 3 on fourth down. The first one they should have gone for. The other two I'm fine with. The play call stunk. It is what it is. So last year, Oregon was 20 of 32 on fourth down. Good. Entering this game, they were 8 for 10, went 0 for 3,

so 8 for 13 this season. What's crazy is that the last play of the Washington game last year, the last fourth down, I should say, the Oregon State game last year, and the Washington game this year, they're 0-for-9 in their last nine fourth down attempts against those specific opponents. So is that bad luck? Is it bad coaching? Bad execution?

I mean, if one of those convert, Matt, Oregon wins that game, we never talk about this. And we actually talk about probably Washington running the ball three times inside the 10 yard line for no points at the end of that game. Right. And so, but here's my point about, about Oregon and the way that I think in Washington,

by the way, mostly the same way too, is again, like you can supplement the portal with one or two guys on, on the offensive defensive lines, but those teams men are built with guys. They have, they have grown homegrown guys. They have built up that have that, man, are built with guys. They have grown. Homegrown guys that they have built up,

that have worked together for years now, that have that shared connection of being in the program. Again, Oregon's best offensive lineman has been there his whole career. Oregon's best defensive lineman has been there his whole career. I'm not saying you can't add in the portal. You can certainly add in the portal. I'm not saying you can't do that. But you sort of need that backbone can't add in the portal. You can certainly add in the portal. I'm not saying you can't do that.

But you sort of need that backbone of your team in the trenches to be those guys. Obviously, quarterback doesn't matter as much. Michael Penick's transfer, Bo Nix's transfer, those guys are great leaders. But in those specific areas of like, we got to hunker down and make plays and beat someone up and put this game on our backs. It's those trench players. And I don't know. It's a take I've been having for a while about college football,

and I feel like it's starting to show itself now. Certainly in Colorado a little bit, but certainly at USC, man. Too many guys that, like, you're brought in as mercenaries. I love this take. It explains the feeling I've, you know, I've said on this show many times. Like, I'm not a huge college football fan. I sort of keep an eye on it. But it's kind of this feeling of sort of hollowness. And it started, I think,

with the realignment where it's just sort of like, oh yeah, that thing that meant a lot to you, that rivalry, like that's just not a thing anymore. Like now USC is going to play Maryland every, you know, every year in the, in the big 10. Like what is that? Like, you know what I mean? Like, I feel like there's this, this feeling of sort of like, you know, college football, like you said, it's all about that sort of like deep relationship from you get recruited. You, you know, you go to this place, it becomes your home, it becomes your program.

And then you take it with you moving forward. And it's an interesting thing that it would extend to the O-lines like that. Matthew, Matthew, very quickly. Maryland goes toregon in 2024. are you going to eugene for the big maryland i'll go with you um i'm seeing when maryland when uh oregon comes to maryland let's see what year is this uh college park jeff if you go to that game i'll personally go 20. families 20 27 oregon at maryland let's go lock it in um my last couple my my go ahead continue no we we i don't think we need to talk too much about maryland who lost to illinois but i do i am curious um after after this weekend uh Panics I think huge weekend for him yeah you know he's been sort of like the other name in the draft conversations now he's the

favorite to win the Heisman he's minus 150 that was his worst game of the year this is my point about Oregon like he was 22 of 37 like we were we had the chance to win this game. Penix probably wins the Heisman. I mean, his schedule is pretty – so Washington's going to be undefeated until this schedule they have here. I'm going to pull it up because it's important to look at. Because it – here, let me pull up the rankings here. Standings. Here we go.

They play, I think, Stanford or Arizona State, then Stanford. And then their schedule gets, like, much tougher. Yeah, so it's Arizona State this weekend, Stanford, at USC, Utah, at Oregon State, Washington State. Washington State's kind of fell off the map right now. So, you know, the next couple weeks he's going to rack up the stats, and then they go to at USC. That would be a primetime game.

Host Utah, a primetime game. Cam Rising, maybe not back. At Oregon State. So at Oregon State, it's the game where this is the only game, in my opinion, they lose if they lose a game at all at Oregon State. But he's going to have this back half of the schedule

full of primetime opponents to make his case to be the Heisman. We have not seen a quarterback who doesn't run at all win a Heisman in forever um i mean joe burrow was a pocket quarterback pulling up right now um he threw for 5 600 yards but he also rushed for you know he also rushed just Jefferson and Jamar Chase yeah yeah yeah but yeah But look, Roman Dunze is a first-round wide receiver.

Jalen McMillan is a first. I mean, these guys at Washington are first-round wide receivers. He rushed for 300. I mean, the rush attempts kind of stink because of the sacks, but damn for 115 rush attempts for 368 yards in that season. Penix, I would imagine Penix has no more than 100 yards rushing at most this season um he has um he has only nine rush attempts all season long for four yards um wow so it i that's

it'd be interesting because like jayden daniels right now who's not playing, obviously, for a championship contender in LSU, his numbers are pretty good. Nearly 2,300 yards right now, 22 touchdowns, three interceptions, and he adds in 500, so far 500 rushing yards. So I'm curious about that dynamic, right? Like is Penix going to get the love, be a pocket quarterback, like Jaden Daniels, who still has some big games ahead of him, about that dynamic right like is is penix going to get the love be a pocket quarterback one guy like jayden daniels who still has you know some big games ahead of him what will will they um downgrade penix and upgrade daniels because he runs the ball a little bit more interesting um

well i guess we'll see i mean any last any last words on – I mean, your coach, Dan Lanning, took the L himself. He did the whole, hey, put it on me, guys. I'm not worried about it. Do you think that was him or do you think – No, well, okay. Walk me through that in the rest of the year. Okay, so the first one, the first third, the first fourth down, he should have gone for, right?

I mean, he should have kicked the field goal. That was the end of the first half. Take the three free points, go into halftime. The other two I'm fine with. The second one, Bo Nix just – there were three guys open. You can look in that direction. I don't know what to do. I mean, how do you – you have to make those plays with your Bo Nix.

The rollout on the end was terrible, even though I like it. Look, you get a first down, the game's over. I just don't like those – I don't like the play calls, right? Pretty interesting here. Bill Conley, SB Plus and espn.com wrote this um they've gained at least three yards on 70 percent of their snaps this season and they went oh for three on fourth down like it feels like it just didn't happen for us like you convert one mat you win the game right and it just it didn't happen so i like being aggressive he'll learn from this.

Got to beat Washington. Tough schedule moving forward. I'd love to play him again in the Pac-12 championship game, but I don't know if that's realistic with our schedule. We've got Washington State at Utah. We host USC and Oregon State, so we have at least the rest of those tough games outside of Utah at home. I don't know.

I'm bummed. Losing college football games is much worse mentally than nfl games like nfl because you have such a long season like you could lose three or four games to be fine you lose seven games to be fine the nfl college football like one game you're like ah this is it season's ruined which is why it's i think that the 12 team playoff is that's the best part about it it doesn't feel that way. Yeah. Yeah, man. Well, I'm sorry for your loss.

At least you didn't lose to Illinois. Should we look ahead to tonight's game down the street from me here? Let's take a break and we'll come back and we'll go over our price picks. How about that? Let's do it. Guys, I want to tell you about my favorite new daily fantasy game I have been playing this season. PrizePix is a skill-based, real-money daily fantasy sports game. How does it work?

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And there are no entry fees required to participate. This football season, Vaulted will be handing out money. The only way to qualify for my big game pool is to beat me in one of the regular season pools, which won't happen because as you know, I am smarter than you. I will be using Vaulted to make and store my five favorite predictions of the week. So join Vaulted and you can like, dislike, comment,

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I'm going to do a three-score entry, which I do every week for my football. Chargers, Cowboys tonight. We know the game is going to be three points in the other direction with Brandon Staley having to make

a fourth down decision. It's going to be fantastic. I cannot wait to watch it. Promo code GSSY. Join us on PrizePix. It's a lot of fun. You choose if a player is going to do more or less

than their projection, Matt. I've had a lot of fun with this each week. We've hit some. We haven't hit some. You can whip it 25 times your money if you hit all three. Or you can do four, five, six. However you want to do it, two.

I do three every week. I like doing three. Here we go. You ready? Austin Eckler's back, Matt. Austin Eckler's back. More than 85 and a half rushing and receiving yards. He's back.

They're going to use him a lot. He'll be using him in the pass game a lot. I'm buying Austin Eckler stock tonight. What do you think? I love it, man. He's had plenty of time to rest. They succeed when they run the offense through him. I'm with you there.

All right, the next one. Justin Herbert more than 278.5 passing yards and the reason why i'm doing this with his busted finger is kellen moore knows the cowboys defense very well he's the chargers offensive coordinator and i love in this spot the chargers are off a buy they know the cowboys defense very well i mean just, Justin Herbert just shreds them tonight. Yes or no. Do you agree? Absolutely.

The total in this game is over 50. This is going to be a high scoring game with a lot of, I don't know. I think just a lot of chaos is going to happen. These are the classic Justin Herbert games. Start hot, blow a lead, comes down to the final possession. Lots of passing yards. think over is is the way to lean tonight uh go ahead with your last one all right my last one is tony pollard more than 67.5 rushing yards the reason why i'm going pollard over here excuse me pollard more rushing

yards is the charger still can't stop the run i think the Cowboys try to get back to the roots of how they run their offense, which is run the ball, play action, pass. And this feels like a low number for him in a game where I think they kind of force feed him to sort of restart the offense. What do you think about the Pollard there? I like Pollard.

I think I like that one. I want to see what you what you think about here um so on prize picks keenan allen has is uh over under for for receptions is seven i think the over there makes a lot of sense um he's averaging 11 targets a game the only two players with more nakua and chase uh he had a 20 target game two weeks ago i just feel like that's one like i do like pollard neckler because i think both teams are going to need to just give their defenses a breath yeah but i do think that keenan allen tonight if you have him in fantasy i feel like he's just going to go absolutely bananas

tonight um so yeah nick nominates a possible four square play there i'm curious if you're willing to throw that one in your mix uh i can do that i can make another one how about make i make two of them i wonder if i could add i wonder if i could add to it i don't know they're trying to like a round deal yeah can i add like can i add i don't know if i could add another one i might have to make a second one another another one just do four so i'm doubling Doubling down with a four square. I like it. You can also do one too, Max.

Promo code GSSY. Yeah. Yeah, definitely. All right, everyone. That's our show for today. Matthew, we'll be back on Friday, me and you, to make some more winning picks. We've done a great job so far.

We'll continue the mojo. Continue doing great things. I appreciate everyone listening. Please, if you're listening now, you like our show, leave a rating. Tell your friends to subscribe. We really appreciate it. Good luck tonight. Enjoy the game. It's going to be wild. We know what's going to happen at the end of this game. I cannot wait

to watch it. Have a great couple days. Everyone talk to you guys on Friday.