Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - North Divisions Player Props and Team Totals

Episode Date: August 11, 2023

Geoff is back with Matt to continue bringing you the best futures on every team in the league, and this week the boys are taking a deep dive into the NFC and AFC North. Plus, a well-informed discussion on the future of the Pac-12, reactions to player complaints about Eric Bieniemy coming out of Commanders' camp, and takeaways from watching the Jets fall in love with Aaron Rodgers on Hard Knocks.Be sure to rate, comment, and follow the pod if you enjoyed, and check out @geoffschwartz on Twitter and Geoff Schwartz on Youtube for live video shows, plus a recorded video version of this episode.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday august 10th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt for this jeff schwartz is smart on you we are live on twitter and on youtube now we made it with just adding more platforms along the way matt as we continue to do this and try this this new way to present the podcast for you hope as well you listen to it on any platform you look at your podcast please rate and review subscribe if you if you do that on those platforms i really appreciate getting that feedback it's good for the podcast we're back for another division preview we're going to talk about the north divisions this year which will be the afc north and the nfc north as we do every year we're going to go through each division we're going to give you our favorite player props, our team totals, our win totals.

We're going to bet $1,000 per division, maybe a little bit over. Last time we went a little bit heavy, Matt. And so much to talk about. Before we get to that, a couple topics to hit. The Pac-12, we did this show, I believe, last Tuesday. And at that point, the Pac-12 was still a thing. It's not anymore. We'll talk about Hardenox

and Eric Biennemi but more importantly Matt are you excited for the Maryland-Oregon rivalry that's going to form as we are now conference rivals in the Big Ten? Finally something for us to uh to talk crap to each other about we never had any other excuse yeah of course I guess I don't know i think this whole thing is is so weird and i i it just makes me sorry okay yeah it's dumb man okay so here's the thing about about all this and you go back and and we posted a live stream i did the other day about this topic so you go back to the previous podcast and recap i did 20 minutes on it but i think what what has made this much worse is how long

this took, right? And in the end, it's a short amount of time. But for a year now, the Pac-12 has been going through this conference realignment, this TV negotiation, and all these things. And when you said USC left, it was a tweet. They were gone. Oklahoma, Texas left. It was a week before they actually left. The news broke. We've been talking about this for a year now. We've covered this on this podcast because Gabe obviously has his USC ties. Matt, you watch college football and enjoy college basketball. We've talked about this now for months and months and months, and it finally happened, and it doesn't feel very satisfactory.

A week later, I'm like, sure, we're in the Big Ten, Oregon is, after this season, like great, at least we're somewhere, and we feel like we'll belong. But the reason we like college sports is the tradition, the shared rivalries, the shared moments that you know of each school, right? Like, I know about Arizona, Arizona State, Stanford. I don't have to learn about Maryland and Rutgers and Iowa and Illinois. I'll eventually figure it out.

But a lot of the regional part of the sport has disappeared with all this movement but Matt the games are better man like we're gonna have better games to wager on in 2024 we're gonna have Penn State playing Oregon one weekend then we're gonna have Ohio State play USC and Michigan play UCI Oklahoma play Georgia and Alabama play Texas and like we're gonna have better games to watch and better games to wager on texas and like we're gonna have better games to watch and better games to wager on thank god an excuse to gamble on football i didn't have enough of those i'm uh i'm going to small tangent i'm going if this matters to no one but but me and you i'm going to vegas tomorrow okay um my there's no sports on my i'm going my cousin football take that back we're getting with my cousin. There's preseason football. Take that back. We're getting there.

My cousin's a Steelers fan. I'm a well-documented Comandantes fan. They both play tomorrow. Should I? What's the etiquette here? What am I doing? I think I should just fire on each, right? Just for fun?

Okay, so fire on each to win the game? don't i guess to win the preseason game but they're playing each other or they're both playing no no they're not playing each other okay commanders are i don't even know who they're playing okay so um i tell this all the time the way to bet in the preseason is to bet on coaches to coach his records so for example john harbaugh's 39 and 16 the preseason we know he's won 23 straight preseason games um but even in a smaller sample like sean mcdermott 12 and 6 in the preseason defense coaches by the way are very good pete carroll 61 in the preseason like i bet i bet on

seattle tonight because they play tonight and pete carroll again covers a lot of his preseason games because defensive coaches tend to care a little bit more about every single play of trying to win these games, of being physical. Offensive coaches, man, they're not going to play their starters as much. They're just trying to get their work in and go home. Ron Rivera cares more about winning this

game than, I believe, whoever they're going to play this weekend. Now, for fun, yeah, go ahead and wager it. Just don't Phil Mickelson it, okay? Just don't Phil Mickelson it, who reportedly – this is from Billy Walters, right? A very well-known and prosperous wagerer, sports wagerer.

He said that from the year 2010 to 2014, they had a partnership and he bet $110,000 to win $100,000. So that's just minus 110 on the VIG there. A total of 1,100 times. On 858 times, he bet $220, 000 to win 200 in 2011 alone he made 3154 bets and on one day in june of 21 to me june of 2011 he made 43 bets on major league Baseball and resulted in $143,000 in losses. Billy Walters estimates that Phil Mickelson bet $1 billion of money over this time. Well, since we're live, I can't air the assumption that I have. But yeah, let's just say that's just not great.

That's maybe where we leave that one. Not great, that's, that's let's just say, that's just not great. That's, that's maybe where we leave that one. Not great, Jeff, not great. That's a lot of volume and a lot of, a lot of volume. So just for Matt, if you, if you, if you, if you trigger on, on, on, on, on a PCS in game, maybe, you know, like 20 bucks, just something, something simple, you know? So four units, is that what you're saying yeah four units if we're not gonna unit shame we're not gonna unit shame um you know phil mickelson we're not gonna unit shame you um speaking about about the commanders um oh is there any news this week about drama already matt matt what's happening in washington i don't know jeff so

for those of you who missed it which i can't imagine you did if you're watching this show or listening uh eric b enemy apparently of some players called him too intense according to ron rivera and what he told the media for some unknown reason um but yeah apparently there were some players who took issue with the enemy's coaching style i found it pretty interesting that afterwards jamal charles and tyree kill and there were probably others on social were basically like yeah he's a tough coach but you know he's awesome he's the best um so ron rivera afterwards said oh yeah i put my foot in my mouth you you played on teams where both of these guys were coaches i'm very curious what

you took away from this why would ron rivera volunteer that information i don't understand no one was asking him well they might have asked him about it but he didn't have to say anything and he went on his long tangent um look if you listen to the show long enough and i hope you have and welcome anyone new i've talked about er Bien-Aimé for years now, right? And we couldn't figure out why he wasn't a head coach. It made no sense because guess what? A lot of coaches that are less qualified were head coaches, have been name-time coaches.

And for some reason, Eric Bien-Aimé just couldn't get a job. And he's two weeks into a new job two weeks in a training camp a week in a training camp but players are already complaining about him that might be a reason right matt i don't know um it it doesn't make sense why he's never gone to head coaching job and he's interviewed 15 16 times but it's not i don't think it's great that players are telling uh media members about interactions with their offensive coordinator because right now it's like the honeymoon period, right? Like you're getting used to each other.

You should be enjoying trying to build an offense together. And it's okay to be a brash coach. I mean, everyone takes coaching. It's fine. But to get to the point where players are voicing their frustration about their new offensive coordinator just 10 days into training camp has me a little bit worried. It's not happening anywhere else.

We're not hearing players complain about it. A head coach is not going out of his way to tell us about it as well. It doesn't feel like there's great energy there, right, Matt? If you're a Commanders fan, you've got to be worried. I had a bit of a different take on this i thought so ron rivera is not this is not his first day i think ron rivera is insecure about this and i think that the you know the reason that ron rivera is still the coach in washington i think overall he's done a pretty good job but not because they've performed super well

on the field it's because he's been the steady hand he's been sort of like the program manager the ceo of of the football team rather than like being really judged for being a head coach and i kind of think that eric b enemy is walking in and he's sort of like yeah i'm gonna be a head coach next year. It's either going to be here or somewhere else. If this, if this, if Sam Howell is anything,

I'm going to get all the credit. Rivera is not going to get any of the credit. I think he's probably just feeling a little bit defensive perhaps, and maybe justifiably. So like he, he got, you know, basically almost a 500 record under Dan Snyder for this long.

Like that is quite an achievement, especially with the quarterbacks that they've had and all the crazy weird setbacks. But this read to me as it's not a good leadership move. This is still a new employee. It's an employee who people have a lot of speculation about for better or worse. I think there are a lot of people who

sort of took the side of like well maybe there is something up with the enemy but i kind of felt like rivera here obviously obviously shouldn't have said anything but the reason that he did i don't think was to send some message i don't think it was strategic i think it was a moment of letting his guard down and look i don't think that i i would doubt that sam howell is talking about it's going to run reverent saying this i would doubt that terry mclaurin is going out of his way to run reverent saying this i don't know who these people are but you don't think that it's going to be the best guys like everything you've heard from from you know the the stars of the team if there are any have pretty much been positive

about about uh the enemy so this just rang a little bit off to me for rivera and i thought the enemy for you know for the record afterwards did a pretty good job of of sort of putting it down and he looked like the real leader to me and and rivera didn't that's a good question about where it's coming from i mean if it's if it's coming from guys that aren't going to make the team is it going to be reported like that's my thing it's like not it wasn't reported it was what rivera said so who knows like yeah who came up to him yeah i don't know i so someone important had to put it in his ear to want to share that information. Interesting.

I think. Yeah. I don't know. It's not going to be the backup center who says it. He's not going to even tell the coach that. It has to be someone with some influence who tells Ron Rivera that to where he feels at least good enough to share it. I guess.

Or there was enough of a conversation, but you know, I don't know. This feels like one of the things, this is going to dog them the whole year now. And a conversation but you know I don't know this feels like one of the things this is going to dog them the whole year now and I think you know this this moment of a division between the two of them is unfortunate and we'll see if the offense is awesome we know who's going to get the credit like we've seen what Rivera can do this this whole year is essentially a test of whether BNME is you know worthy of of a head coaching job next year it's a it's a dicey

situation and rivera could could essentially have taken a bit more credit for it but now i feel like there's a divide between the two of them not a great start for uh for my common dantes no not great but what was great was the return of of hard knocks which oh yeah it finally felt like the hard knocks of old minus a little bit of like there's not as much personal decisions being made anymore, but it was a good show, Matt. Like I thought hard knocks has kind of declined a tiny bit,

but I liked it. I thought it was good. The one, the one common thing that we hear about Aaron Rogers from his teammates is that he's a great teammate. Like you've only heard basically two teammates that have gone on record. And coming out of this episode, I felt the same thing. His teammates genuinely like him.

They like Aaron Rodgers. They like playing with Aaron Rodgers. He looked good. He looked like he's still playing at a high level. But we've got to slow down this Super Bowl talk, man. All Twitter was talking about was Jets or Super Bowl. It's a show that's supposed to pump up a team like let's take a deep breath a little bit here guys i think the excitement is a little bit too much for me but i very much enjoyed it i don't have any

takeaways other than aaron rogers it seems like he's a good teammate people continually say that um the leave schreiber part was really funny how he just like he just showed up um in there and then he put the football down the whole football bit was pretty funny um oh i thought it was entertaining but i i'm i was happy to be entertained yeah it was definitely entertaining i i i guess my first question to you jeff is uh are we eagles or crows on this show oh good question what was that what did wasala say again it was like wasala started it where it was yeah i know it was like it was like they could just smash them but instead instead they fly high and they suffocate. I really loved that, and I loved –

That was my favorite moment of the show, was watching Salah kind of cook and then them cutting to Rodgers, who's kind of smiling, and the rest of the team that was definitely feeling that. My thought in that moment, by the way, was how long did he prepare to say that like is this something he like looked up like motivational things to say to teams like or did he have this story in his back pocket how does he prepare for motivational speeches during the season is that like an off-season program for robert solo to get into i liked it it was great it was great i really liked that i thought it was really interesting

the Hackett the thing that people have said about Hackett is that the reason he gets these jobs is he's friendly with Rodgers and I found that to be pretty interesting that like Rodgers said like this is why he's a great coach he noticed that David Bakhtiari didn't celebrate with the rest of the team so he had to celebrate with them I was like Brian yeah yeah sorry I don't even know what he said uh but yeah it was bulaga and uh yeah that that whole thing was just kind of odd I thought Hackett as a guy was kind of odd I loved when they were playing the the pylon game and he said you know rogers said uh sean payton's name to throw him off i thought that was pretty funny um but look i mean rogers it showed a level of intensity to rogers that i think not all of us were sure that he still had where he is the center of gravity of that whole

team like when they went into the defensive back meetings they were talking about rogers making throws it's like he is truly like he has completely changed what's going on in that in that building and i think with sala like i don't feel like i had really had a good feel for sala until this show started and it seems like he's a really good personality it seems like everyone seems to really like him but it was interesting watching the game and obviously it's edited like the hall of fame game like he wasn't he didn't seem like he was super involved in like all of the bits and pieces the way a lot of head coaches seem to be like compare him with like a sean mcveigh or something so i think it's a really interesting personality blend um but i definitely felt at moments where i was like Jesus like is Rodgers gonna be the MVP again like these guys are just salivating over every single thing he does and if he's really good like that

team does seem to be kind of stacked but they are the most like obvious hard knocks bump ever like I'm gonna love betting against them in a few weeks when everyone's just talked themselves into them winning the Ac well that that is what the show is about right it's about promotion and hype and the reaction from the players by the way is because the quarterback situation last year was so bad that they're seeing a hall of fame quarterback play and they're like holy this is what it's really like guys this is what real football is like seeing a's seeing Aaron Rodgers. So we'll continue to watch that as it goes along.

But staying in the division that Rodgers used to play in, the NFC North, we're going to start with our preview of that division. Oh, yeah. Good segue. We'll go through our – I'm a radio professional, by the way. We will go through the win totals, whether they make the playoffs, division wins, and any sort of props that we like. Remember, we are doing exercise this year. We're going to end up taking more wagers this year because we're taking every running back under for the season.

Every starting running back, we're taking the under. We're doing a project this year. We lowered our wager from 250 to 150 this year for our unit size because of so many wagers. We had any long shots, we're doing about 50 bucks on the long plus a thousand for something, 50 bucks, anything else about 150. And again, we're trying to spend a thousand dollars in each division. That's $8,000 total, extra 2000 that we can spend at any time. We were a couple hundred over last week. We want to save that money for in-season wagers.

As Matt mentioned, a team gets off hot. We want to bet the under at some point. A team starts slow. We want to bet the over. We want to have the capability to do that throughout the season. Let's start with the NFC North. Matt, kick us off. Yeah, where do you want to start?

You want to start low to high or high to low? I think we did high to low. Did we do high to low last time? Yeah, let's do that because it sort of informs how we're going to view the rest of this division. So everyone's darling the Detroit Lions. Last year, 9-8, missed the playoffs. This year, they're projected their total is 9.5.

They are minus 122 to the over. They are probably, I think, other than the Jets, the most public team, I think. They're minus 170 to make the playoffs, minus 136 to miss, and plus 145 to win the division. Lots to like about this team. I'm kind of curious if you're buying the Lions or if

you want to take this in another direction. Oh, buddy, I would absolutely bet them not make the playoffs. Ooh, talk to me. Yeah. Well, as you mentioned, they're the favorite team of everyone this offseason. And it's because

the way they finished last year, everyone likes Dan Campbell. They're fun to root for. Um, but their defense was 28th and DVOA last season. Their offense was five. Okay. Um,

Jared Goff has shown no consistency in his entire career. And I failed to see a year to year where the offense is fifth again. I just don't see that happening. I like, I like the, I like the design of the offense. I like the way that they play. But any sort of injury to the offense, any sort of guys out for a while, they just signed Teddy Bridgewater, which kind of is like, why would you sign a guy like Bridgewater when you have Goff, right?

I mean, is Bridgewater that much worse than Goff? Might be better than Goff. That signing to me sounds like you might not trust Goff, or if he gets hurt, you want to be able to have a quarterback that can get you to the playoffs. I thought that was an interesting signing, especially with Hooker. They're now hookers on the NFI list. with uh with hooker they're now hookers on the nfi list um but i i just the lions perpetually underachieve right matt now all of a sudden we're supposed to expect they're going to overachieve

to me the wager is not make the playoffs um i don't know if we want to do that here but that's what i that's the wager i'd make i it's funny funny. I'm with you on fading this team. I think I would be up for that bet. I'm surprised that the number's not higher. The problems, two things I noticed with the Lions. I think we all love Dan Campbell. Even if we fade this team, I'm going to be rooting for them. Super fun story, tortured fan base.

They were really good to us last year. They were one of the best teams to spread last year which i think is a reason that all the gambling public is sort of on them this year um the problem is though what a lot of the changes that they made on their team like a lot of the new faces are essentially just replacing other good players that have left like people love their rookie tight end laporta it's because they let hockinson go to their division rivalry trading them obviously to the vikings they you know they bring in cj gardner johnson who i believe has already hurt and like they but they also missed on jeff akuta they let or waria walk like they're they let jamal williams walk so they

bring in gibbs like they're they're just sort of shuffling the chairs where they still have these big problems. Where on defense, one of the worst last year, like you mentioned, who is their number two receiver right now? Marvin Jones? This is not going to be a great start for Jared Goff until Jamison Williams comes back, and we still don't really know what he is. People are excited about David Montgomery.

Reminder that he had one 1 000 yard season in four seasons in chicago one season with eight touchdowns this is not a lateral move from jamal williams who led the league in touchdowns last year like people talk a lot in this division we'll get to the vikings in a bit about like regression and how things aren't totally sustainable yeah i just don't see how this is a top five offense like and you know they're gonna start the season they're gonna get killed by kansas city in week one they got to deal with seattle in week two atlanta is a tricky team like we already talked about in terms of game plan like they have a pretty tough schedule like they're gonna have to go they're

gonna have to go to baltimore they play the uh they yeah they play the afc west this season which is i mean all these teams in the division do i don't really love their chances and i think that you know some of the other teams in this division might might have a better shot at taking it away so do you feel do you want to bet no playoffs or under nine and a half because i feel like i don't feel that confident in those but i do feel confident taking all the running backs to go under all the way back at least montgomery to go under gibbs is that what's one what's montgomery's number i i saw on draft kings today 750.5 which is yeah which would be a career low for him it'd be a career low for him but but still. Because Gibbs, I think Gibbs is going to end up taking most of the carries

by midpoint of the season. Also, Montgomery's yards per attempt for his career is 3.9. Now, the lines off his line is much better than the Bears, but, I mean, like, come on. Still, like, to me, that's under. We'd know if he was good by now. I like that. I do think, too, like, because they invested so much in Gibbs, they kind of have'd know if he was good by now. I like that. I do think, too, because they invested so much in Gibbs,

they kind of have to prove that it was worth it. So if it's a tie, they're going to give more to Gibbs. I really do like the miss the playoffs thing. I wouldn't be my favorite bet of all time, but I definitely think it's a good play. I think my favorite bet so far is coming up later. I will say jeff uh if we want to do a little bit of dancing with the girl that brought us to the dance here right now in caesars

amon ra is over under for receiving yards is 9 49 and a half it's juiced to minus 135 on the over but gotta think that he's gonna go over that he was at uh 11 61 last year and the year before he was at 9 12 um and that was with only nine starts he's also he's at over uh his over under on draft kings i'm looking at is uh 10 50 and a half and that's that's just minus 115 um and 15 and a half minus 115 for the over i mean i'm i'm good with it the only thing is if we expect some regression offensively but he who else is getting the targets like there's nobody else to eat in the targets there so yeah he had he was targeted 146 times in 16 games last year and i think he left early in at least one so i i think he's gonna blow up this year um i put it i put it in the next

i put it in there and i i think we just got a bet on his over every year um given how good he was to us last year um there was some other prop i liked here i think now i'm i'm good i just i think if you do like detroit i would just say say I'd bet them after a few weeks. I just don't think they're going to start super well. I think they're going to get embarrassed by Kansas City in week one. And I think they could end up starting one and three. Who knows what Atlanta's going to be? I just feel like if you like them, bet them to make the playoffs in week four or five

because I think they're going to start pretty slow um i'm with you there i think that again that's why we kind of save we save money on that right that's what we do yeah yep um all right next up uh minnesota i'm i'm so curious about what you have in minnesota because i i um okay, so Minnesota last year, I think, won nine of their 10 one-score games. Their DVOA last year was 27th, 20th in offense, 27th on defense. If they regress back to, let's say, 500 in those games, the one-score games, they're going to probably win more than eight those in those games right the ones more games they're gonna probably win more than eight and a half games right Matt like I they have the best quarterback in the division this to me yeah feels odd to have them so low here like an eighth I I think we're

the only people that are buying this team because every single person you listen to says the same thing. It's regression. They were in all these one score games last year. Okay. Well, it seems like they're not getting credit for a lot of them. And I get it. Some of them, like they pulled out of their asses. Totally.

There was a game against Washington. That was one of them. The Buffalo game with the Jefferson crazy catch that we saw in the quarterback show. Yeah, those were lucky but there were a few of these games like doesn't it feel like they don't even get credit for the largest comeback in NFL history like there are people like well that was a coin flip of a game it's like they know they pulled off a miracle like they should get credit for that not get you know get blamed for it essentially there were a couple of these games dude they went 13 to 4 if you if you take out you can take out three of those close games they win 10 games exactly and like some of these

one score games like i really looked into this there was one one score game where they beat the cardinals 34 to 26 they were up 28 17 in the third quarter like that was just like sort of a backdoor cover the dolphins they were up 24 10 in the third quarter and won 24 to 16 like that counts as a one score game even though it really wasn't and one of the problems that they had was their defense could never close anybody out well they got a new defensive coordinator they got brian flores like yeah they lost some people but what exactly were they holding on to their defense was really terrible last year you know they last year they added hockinson in the middle of the season he was unbelievable for them down the stretch they replaced adam thielen with

the first round receiver who everybody loves and jordan addison they drafted in the secondary like i i get it like nobody's nobody's in on this team but as we get to the other team somebody's got to win this division and i feel like we get a pretty good number for them to win it at plus 260 they've got the best quarterback they won 13 games last year they don't need to win 13 games this year how about how about they win 11 games like that's that's not a crazy ask i don't i actually like to win the division more than over the win total because if they go over the win total they're probably winning the division yeah and like they don't even need to like this is not going to be a super strong division i don't think um so i think nine or ten wins could win

this um and yeah i look i i just don't i don't know that i just don't get why everybody seems to say like well they're just going to be worse this year like okay but their team is largely the same and even improved in a lot of areas I'm gonna agree with you I'm I'm I'm I agree again in in every division I think seven out of eight last year the best quarterback on the division yeah it's not like oh no it's not a hard thing to look at and say like hey yeah that's a lot of times how it's going to work um can i interest you in i'm pulling up right now where is that right now um a jordan addison rookie of the year oh interesting huh i hmm so what would that look like that would mean justin jefferson probably had a down year right what would that look like that would mean justin jefferson probably had a down year right

well so it would mean that the rookie quarterbacks aren't terribly good right away and bijan is just not you know he's okay there's a different rookie receiver in this in this episode who i like for rookie of the year okay we can save on this um i mean that's fine but i like him a lot but i think i do i do think that i can't see where's it receiving yards i do think addison for receiving yards if there's a number up um which i think is hard to find right now um i would be i'd be interested to look into that number i think while you look at that i do want to mention so alexander madison we're obviously going under on all these running backs his over under is 900 and a half rushing yards i just want to point out like he's never been a featured back he's always had injury problems last year dalvin cook was a 1200 yard rusher even though it felt like kind of a down year for him

i think there's about zero chance that the vikings don't end up with one of these free agent running backs before the season starts whether it's for net maybe it's like dalvin cook come back like no one's talking about that it doesn't seem likely but it does feel like don't you feel like they're just going to sign ezekiel elliott or one of these guys just when they realize like hey madison is not going to carry this team the whole way i just feel like this is an absolute lock for the under and by the way like if you're listening if you're watching live or listening today like i would get this one in quickly because it does feel like the second they sign one of these guys it's gonna the number is gonna move down by quite a bit oh i'm i'm in the madison 900.5 under, 100%. I can't find an Addison total right now.

I think maybe he's just not up quite yet, but I would take it over. I think it's probably going to be around 700, 800 yards, maybe less, 600 yards, and I think it's going to be an incredible number because I think he's going to have a good season for them. Yeah, I do too. I think this offense was really good last year, and people just remember all the chaos but they i think they should get some credit for that and not just blame for it i i

we're the only two people who are on this so we're either total total morons or complete geniuses uh we'll see we'll see in a couple weeks um next time i think we're i think we're geniuses um next team i think we're i think we're geniuses um next team uh green bay packers uh over win total seven and a half i have no concrete packers takes honestly um because i don't know what jordan jordan aniston is i will tell you his his number his passing number is 33 50 and a half 3 350 yards that would put him between 14 and 15 last season for passing in the nfl so basically 14 and a half seems pretty high right yeah it does that's the only way that's the way i would take here take the under under yes yeah i think i agree um the thing with the Packers is everyone who makes a case for them, it's all about their defense and how good their defense is.

Well, they were PFF's 21st ranked defense last year with Aaron Rodgers. Why exactly are they going to be better? Because of Lucas Van Ness? Is that the take? I think they have the worst receiving core in the league. They're kind of an older team it feels like if they start kind of slow doesn't it feel like they're a possible teardown team like you know what you could get for Jair Alexander like you get so much for him like if they don't

start hot I it just feels like this this could go south in a hurry I I agree I don't really have a feel for um for going or or Aaron Jones by the way I think he's a great trade candidate I don't really have a feel for um for going or or aaron jones by the way i think he's a great trade candidate i don't really have oh yeah we have her sorry we have jones under 800 and a half 800 and a half yards i forgot about that that has to be that has to be in here yeah i could i could see i could see him going over um but we have to do it we have to do it though right we have to do it um i just feel like if this team were named anything other than the green bay packers this team's win total would be like five and a half we don't know anything about their quarterback we're supposed to what i really like aaron jones okay like they

legitimately might have the worst receiving core in the league and their defense is super overrated like i don't know man this team i just i don't get what i don't get what people like about this team uh i don't i don't either i'm with you i i i i i'm i'm i mean jordan love under aaron jones under i don't i don't the the win total i'm not really up for it i don't really have a say on that but i it's hard to wager on a team that you know nothing about the quarterback right now and that's the problem right he's in his fourth season and you can't even definitively say what he's gonna be yeah that's right um well there is a quarterback on the next team who we do know something about that's justin fields um this is everyone's i feel

like this is another super public team. A lot of people seem to like the Bears. They're over under 7.5. It's actually juiced pretty heavily to the over. Minus 122 to go over, plus 100 to go under. They're plus 430 to win the division. I have a pretty strong opinion here. I'm curious if you do.

I think I'm back now. Okay, I hit the wrong button. I'm back. Okay. Oh, good times. I missed 30 seconds of what you said about the Bears. I'm just a dummy with this stuff. I clicked the wrong button.

It happens. I love online production. Oh, geez. The Bears roster, man. Like, it's – where is it – where are like man that is a that's a good unit that's a unit like i know they're gonna be good is there one do you have do you have a unit in your in mind no um i don't and as a matter of fact jeff you may have cut out for this part this i think this is my strongest opinion yet of any of the teams that we've talked about.

Worst record again? Maybe not worst record, but where's my camera? Here's my camera. Here's my camera. There's my camera. Remember last year, Jeff, when I was sitting in this very room and we had a big laugh about how Zach Wilson was was the most bet mvp candidate behind patch he was ahead of mahomes he was ahead of rogers he was like a what 20 to one shot it was some it was

some ridiculous number and he got more pre-season bets for mvp than patrick mahomes how'd that go that go good those people happy that they got good value on their zach wilson ticket people happy that they got good value on their Zach Wilson ticket the year before that was Baker Mayfield well who is it this year Justin Fields it's Justin Fields how many years in a row do you guys need to do this this is what's gonna happen he's five and twenty as a starter in two seasons he was sacked he was sacked more in 15 games last year than patrick holmes and trevor lawrence combined he was sacked 55 times last year i heard on a show that i listen to regularly for gambling advice someone called dj moore a top five receiver that they added a top five receiver dj more i went to maryland this guy's not in my top 20. like he hasn't contributed to winning football

ever in the nfl or in college for that matter look this team was the worst team in the league last year now we're saying that they're going to win seven and a half games because of dj moore guys this is a hammer under under seven and a half plus 100 is even money this is this is a free bet I don't understand what anyone likes about this team is it their coaching is it Matt Eberflus like that guy could log into our Zoom call right now I wouldn't even know who he is what are we doing I think this is the most ridiculous team everyone loves justin fields because he's fun in fantasy great pick him in fantasy i'm staying away i think this is a hammer under and don't be shocked when everyone's out next year well so it's pretty it's pretty funny so they have them for passing yards

this year at like 2600 which will put him in like we put him at like 27 in the nfl it's absurd it's 2850 which i'm fairly certain would put him at the bottom of the nfl for starting quarterbacks he's that kind of tells you a lot right there's this this uh thing at draft kings where they have over to go over 4 000 passing yards which like that's good like kirk where they have over to go over 4,000 passing yards, which like, that's good. Like Kirk Cousins is minus 700 to go over 4,000 passing yards. Justin Fields is plus 1400 to go over 4,000 passing yards. You think he's going to win MVP? Like the books are telling you what they think of him. think of him so for like the the players that threw for around the number that fields is that right now where andy dalton had started 14 games jack prescott started 12 so that doesn't he missed

five games right and then jacoby recede started 11 games and ryan tannehill who we bet under last year if you recall who started 12 games like i i don't what am i missing like tell me what i'm missing they're saying no nothing drafting says dj moore's over under receiving yards 800 yards this is the guy that's going to win them five more games six more games excuse me i i just i think this is this is like get out your betting app and bet it now if you're watching like i just i don't i what's the case hope and edmunds awesome what are we doing these are good players but like what are we talking about okay so you want bears under seven and a half and Justin Fields under 28, 50.5 passing yards or no Justin Fields would bet.

I think no, Justin Fields, but bears under, and I'm willing to, I'm willing to shove all in on this one. Like I just, I don't see a world. Well, I've been very clear about this when it's,

it's an all in for Matt. I'm all into, because those are the ones that hit, man. Yeah. They, they hit, they hit the Almon Ross St. Brown one last year, all in for Matt. I'm all in too. Because those are the ones that hit, man. They hit. They hit. The Almon Ross St. Brown one last year, all in on it.

So we don't do units very much anymore on this because it just takes too long to do. But, you know, if we're doing 150 as a typical unit now, how much do you want to put on this one wager? What do you think, 300? Double? Sure. Do it. All right.

Set. Okay. So for this division, who I think we both agree it'd be Minnesota finishing first, then the Lions, and then two teams with the Packers and Bears. I don't know. We have our running back unders as usual, Montgomery, Madison, and Jones. Again, that's no analysis other than this has historically been what has happened in the nfl where the nfl running backs if you bet them all you're gonna make a lot

of money betting the unders it's boring i get it i don't know lines no playoffs plus 136 right matt or you want or you want to their unders plus 100 for nine nine and a half wins do you want to do that instead or do you need to play no instead, or do you think no playoffs? So who do we think? I mean, we haven't done the other divisions yet, but we did the West. We probably had one team. No, we didn't do that.

We did the South. I'm sorry, the South. There's only one team making it from the South. So you think, so yes, I guess that's a question, right? So you go like Dallas, Philly, SF will make it probably, even though they're a disaster. Yeah, just one West team. Then one NFC South team, the Minnesota, yeah, they could make it, I guess.

They could make it by going nine and eight. I feel like. Let's do the under, though. The under, the number's not great. I mean. It's plus 100 to go under. Yeah, we could do that I'm fine with that

you want to find an alternate number ooh I'm fine with an under 9.5 I'm fine going against the public it's perfect I'm going to watch St. Brown over 1050.5

let's just back to the well guys because matt made it so much money going back last year uh vikings win the division at plus 260. i like that wager man that's that's like the that's the if you look at last season in the nfl all right um the division winners where i think last year the AFC East was Josh Allen. The NFC North was Joe Burrow. The AFC South was Trevor Lawrence. The AFC West was Pat Mahomes. The NFC East was Jalen Hurts.

The North was Cousins. And you can argue last year, maybe was he better than Rodgers last year? Yeah. I don't know. Definitely. The NFC South was Tom Brady. The NFC West was conglomerate of Niners quarterbacks.

Yeah. So seven of eight. Seven of eight were the best quarterback in the division. Yeah, and Purdy was the best quarterback in that division by the end of the year. Yeah. And then we have Jordan Love under 3350.5, and then Bears under seven and a half for a double unit, a two-unit wager let's go

yep i love it i'm glad you were with me on the bears i felt really strongly about that oh yes um let's get to the north which is it might be the most competitive division in all of them yeah man what a great division so in the AFC, we just went from a division with the best quarterback being Kirk Cousins. We've got some really good ones in this one. Let's start with Cincinnati. They're still at 11.5. They're extremely juiced to the under. They're minus 144 to go under, I think,

because everyone's scared of the Burrow calf injury, which is very fair. They are plus 225 to miss the playoffs almost three to one to make the playoffs uh i'm sorry minus 290 to make the playoffs what do you think are you scared off by this borough thing or are you still believing it's plus 900 or a afc championship wager for them um yeah i don't really have a feel on the win total that's a lot and they're playing tough division but borough's plus 900 to win mvp and we took that last year from homes and it played off pretty well for us because if they win if they're the one seed which i think they're talented enough to do that

he won the mvp this year the question is only if he misses games and it doesn't seem like he will um have you ever had like a really bad calf strain it no but it i you know done enough uh study on it every other's had every other injury. Well, we can add that to the list of injuries that we've had on this podcast. I've had one. I don't know exactly what his grade is, but I couldn't walk for weeks, and it seems like he's kind of coming along. We've seen this in the other – we saw this with Kevin Durant where he had the calf sprain,

and then it got worse. I just hope that they don't rush him back, which is kind of my concern. We've still got about a month, so I think he'll be okay. If you're with the Bengals, I feel like right now is a great chance to bet them to win this division, perhaps, a plus 150. That's a pretty good number. I don't think any of these other teams are a real threat to them if burrows actually healthy and good um you know they're just they're awesome like their defense doesn't get a lot of credit they were a top 10 unit in dvoa last year like they're you could argue they have the best offense and defense in this division and the best

quarterback um so i i don't totally feel strongly but i do wonder if maybe we're missing an opportunity to to well if we take the borough thing for mvp i you know maybe that's our way to sort of bet that he's going to be fine that basically is um a way to to do that right so just take end up taking um end up taking him you know to win mvp because if that happens they're they're division winners right and they're one of the best teams in the sport yeah they're i mean what do you think of their o-line i mean they add orlando brown who you're obviously familiar with from the chiefs like is that that was a that's been a big concern in the past do you think they've upgraded enough there that you feel better about it i think it's fine bro gets rid of the ball fast enough um he's able to, I think, do enough to mitigate that offensive line.

The one thing that's interesting, so his passing number is 44-25.5. That's a high number. He was over that two years ago. Last year he came back down a little bit. He's at 44-75. This is 50 yards less than last season. Is that something that you're willing to consider, or that number is too close to the line, you think?

Under, under. Oh, to go under? Yeah, I don't know. We can't bet him for MVP and also under his yardage total. That's a good point. Joe Mixon, of course also under his u.s that's a good point um joe mixon of course under his rushing number uh which i think is a good wager to make um considering that i think they're gonna do some rotation station there with uh the running backs and uh you know on third down

they like to use a lot of different running backs i think it's a decent number right um yeah for him there uh what uh what anything else you you like with the bangles i don't think so um this was a tricky team to handicap because of the uncertainty with burrow at the moment but you know maybe jamar chase stuff you like chase was his numbers were pretty low surprisingly low the one i really wanted to look at and i'll do it now would be t higgins who's in a contract year and he's like he's the one that the every bangles fan is sort of like well we can't keep all these guys uh he's at exactly a thousand yards that could be a nice over or maybe it's touchdowns with him let's see what that number is um he's been over he's over a thousand the last two seasons

well that feels like a pretty good one then yeah what's the touchdown number at six and a half he's had six six and seven oh that's so that's it's not their first day on the job. I like the over 1,000 for him. I feel like this is a really important year for him. I'm not super over the moon about it, but it seems fine. I think it's a small wager bet. Something small. Yeah, I like that.

Yeah. Let's get to the Ravens next because, God, I'm so fascinated by this team yeah me too uh their win total is 10 and a half very respectful uh over is you get a little bit of an advantage going over it's only minus 102 um they are minus 170 to make the playoffs and plus 210 to win the division um yeah there's a lot of ways you can you can look here i'm curious which which way you want to go okay well about their team lamar jackson has won 75 of the games he's played he doesn't play every week like i would take the over or i would take

them to win the division matt at plus 210 but are we sure he'll be healthy all season? I know the offense has changed. Are we sure that he will play 16 games this year? And the answer to me is no. We don't know that, and that's why it's hard to definitively put your money on them winning. If he plays 16 games, they're going to win the division, I think. But he's played the last two years 12 games each. They were very good when he was healthy and not so good when he wasn't healthy. And I don't think that he's going to be – I'll put it like this.

I hope he's healthy, but the track record has shown he's not for 17 games. The wager I do like for lamar jackson is uh under i think i saw third well sorry um his passing total was let me make you pull this up right here um it was like 200 200 more than he ever had thrown in a season um and he hasn't played more than 15 games in a season um you know in his career so um i'm going to pull up right here it's it's 3500 the most he's thrown in one season is 37 27 interesting well it's funny because i looked at his rushing numbers and we've got them in our rundown somewhere um they they have his rushing numbers at about at 775 and i feel like i'd almost rather go under on the rushing like i do have a feeling you know we heard this with josh allen i think we're going to hear it with lamar jackson of

the narrative of like hey man you can't take so many hits like we need you on the field you're a franchise is different the offense is different yeah so i i would lean toward i think that would be the under that i would play a you're sort of getting the baked in what is it of any missed games 775 and a half um you know and you're also i think going in a different scheme the thing that the thing that i'm having a hard time with is everyone's talking about what a great supporting cast lamar jackson has this year this is the best supporting cast he's had like okay so rashad bateman's been fine uh they add odell beckham who everyone says is healthy but but he's had a pretty weird couple of years.

It would be unprecedented to my memory if Odell Beckham came back after missing a year, after a really bad injury with the Rams, after in 2021, he had the time with the Rams. He had the catch in the Super Bowl. That's great. Remember, he started the season with the Browns that year. He had 17 catches for 232 yards. He hasn't been productive. Honestly, I just want to pull up just to make sure I'm not overstating it here like his last thousand yard season was in 2019 with Cleveland so you know it would be unbelievable

if he was a really impactful receiver this year maybe we should look at his his yardage totals oh I'm in on that I will say though, though, you know, Zay Flowers. It's very low. It's 575 and a half. Under four and a half touchdowns is, oh, wow, that's minus 150. So, you know, I think Baltimore, you're betting, if you're making the case for Baltimore, you think Burrow's probably not going to be healthy the whole season.

That would be one case to make. I think that's a fair one to make. At this moment, we're taping this. And I think you're betting on just the infrastructure of this team. They have such solid players all across the board. Really good offensive line. Mark Andrews is super reliable. And maybe if you love Zay Flowers,

which I think he might be the one to, to take a sprinkle on for rookie of the year. Um, just because of the opportunity that he's going to get. Um, yeah, but I, uh,

I don't, the rookie of the year is gonna be Anthony Richardson, by the way, which you probably should have bet on that last episode. Maybe we can go back and do that, Matt. Um, he's going to play the most of any rookie quarterback.

Not the most, but the most. I think he'll be – Bryce Young's there too, right? I mean, Bryce Young, we have the Panthers in the playoffs. I totally forgot about Bryce Young. I'm going to erase what I said. I totally forgot. I was thinking about C.J. Stroud, not even Bryce Young.

Never mind. i would not take i would not make that wager my my back continue on with the ravens no i mean i one thing that i found kind of insane about the ravens they've never had a pro bowl receiver in the history of their franchise is that crazy so zay flowers like they you know everybody's going crazy about him in training camp but like they've never had a pro bowl receiver um so you know there's still so many questions with this team like what the hell's going on with jk dobbins like this you know that's one of the weirdest stories in the league sign of a good organization unlike the commanders that like that's not really a big story when it really could be um they're just a really solid team. But again, if Jackson were to get hurt,

everything sort of falls apart. So I don't know. I never really have a feel for this team ever. It never feels like they should be as good as they end up being. We take the Lamar Jackson under rushing and call it a day. Yeah, that's fine. Okay, that's fine. And I mean, if we're going to move from a mysterious team, there's maybe a more mysterious team coming up next. And that's fine and and i mean if we're gonna move from a mysterious team there's maybe a more mysterious team coming up next and that's cleveland whose win total is a staggering in my opinion nine

and a half um over is about plus 108 uh to make the playoffs they are plus 112 minus 138 to miss plus 400 in the division this year every year it seems to cleveland seems to be pff's favorite team every single year i'm curious if what you make of this one okay so often the defense alliance check they're there right um wide receiver amari cooper um wide receiver amari cooper john uh donald people jones elijah moore cedric tillman okay right really good rushing attack we know that okay tight end the truck is good but you know it's not a top five tight end player um the secondary has a lot of players that are good it can be a very good defense um either 23rd DVO that's way better on defense this season and then they play last year Jim Schwartz is there now I

believe this is his first year there so they change the coordinator it's been successful when he's been a defensive coordinator it comes out of the Sean Watson right and it's a Sean Watson the Deshaun Watson he was in Houston or more of what we saw as him last year? Now, just personally, Matt, I don't really want to root for Deshaun Watson. I don't want to root for the Browns to win. Sorry, Browns fans. Nothing wrong with the organization itself, but I don't want to be rooting for the Browns to win. Sorry, Browns fans. Nothing wrong with the organization itself,

but I don't want to be rooting for the Browns to go over their win total. I just don't. These are personal wagers, right? But I like a lot of their pieces. They might have the best Bengals defenses of line and offensive line maybe on slightly the same level as the browns in the division but there's a lot of parts that the browns are have a lot of good parts man and it comes down to sean i know very smart people that have wagered them to win the afc conference

wow i'm not with that uh you mentioned obviously the personal issues with this team i it would be very fun to root against them uh you said there's nothing wrong with the organization disagree they gave this they gave deshaun watson the biggest guaranteed contract in nfl history like my my point is more like if deshaun wasn't there i would be fine wagering on the browns that's my more my point of it like i know i understand it's i'm more just personal because they deserve it i just want to like point this out like they they do end up having some nice benefits with the schedule based on like teams that you're coming off arrest this is based on sharps research but i just want to start they go cincinnati week one

at pittsburgh week two which is always tough tennessee week three always tough baltimore so they have three of their home games off the bat then they have a week five by which is really brutal in this in you know these long seasons then they go san francisco so they're they're halfway through their home games in week six and they're by and they play in those home games for teams that made the playoffs last year or to baltimore no they play four really good teams then after that they still have to play the afc or sorry the nfc west uh so they still get seattle i i'm kind of in on the rams we'll get to that in a future show um they play the jets later in the season they they do not have an easy schedule and uh you know the the thing that they've got going for them

is on offense other than watson is if he doesn't get off to a great start is nick chubb this is finally going to be his year he's going to be unlocked we think uh without kareem hunt there so we're still betting we're still betting his under though yeah i think we have to um well we actually have to based on our our stakes for but um i just i i don't know man i just i don't feel like this is a team that um the the idea that they would make some big run in this division it hinges completely on watson um and one other thing was from last year when when so chubb last year had such an awesome year but he was really good when brissette was in there and then when watson was in there his

numbers really declined he didn't score as much it was also later in the season and he carried such a big load in the beginning that it might have been fatigue but their offense just it wasn't just that watson wasn't playing well it sort of changed what they did and they threw a lot more Mari Cooper had a lot better numbers down the stretch and they sort of went away from Chubb so that was a little bit concerning for I think if you think the Browns are going to be good that that's how they chose to handle it when Watson was in there so there's plenty of reasons to not root for this team I'm very fine going under it's a huge it's a huge number um but it's due to minus 134 so maybe maybe we just pass on this i'm i'm good with just passing on

on brown stuff yeah i'm cool with that i'm personally fine with that um i'll get the steelers because i have a lot of thoughts about p thoughts about Pittsburgh and most of them are good thoughts um they're they're eight and five last I mean they see me they they uh not 85 last year um I was looking at Kenny Pickett's record as a starter we know that under Mike Tomlin they have never finished with a losing record their win total is eight and a half for this season. Last year, their DVOA on defense was 12. Good on defense last season, right? Good on defense last year. Offensively, they were 18 with a rookie quarterback who was sort of just trying to figure it out with a young offensive line, with a coordinator that, you know, trying to figure out kind of how to play. Dude, Kenny

Pickett showed last year some moments, some good football, Matt. Like he showed some good football a lot of times. He's in the year two. He's a bona fide number one wide receiver in George Pickens, an improved offensive line with some off-season additions. Not just off-season additions, just generally playing better as they get older, right?

That's sort of the way things work a lot of times. They might just all bust out, but typically the more reps you get, the better you feel about things. They brought in Isaac Samualu from Philly, who anchored obviously a championship, anti-championship caliber team. James Daniels is there as well from the Bears. I'm in on they're over. I'm in on they're over.

I'm in on Kenny Pickett over 3,300 passing yards. Last year, if he played 17 games, it would have been 3,128. To me, it's a no-brainer in year two. And for shits and giggles pickens lead the nfl and what in uh receiving yards at plus 5 000 pickens oh my god i love that i was gonna say that we could go over with pickens on touchdowns it's low it's like four and a half or five or something how about we do that too we do all of that i i love george pickens we were early on pickens last year um i think that's a great call i'm just grabbing his number it's over four and a half touchdowns is plus 100

yes oh yes i think that's a lock um last year was a rebuilding year for pittsburgh right they had a rookie quarterback you mentioned the offensive line and what ended up happening kenny pickett went seven and two in his last nine starts yeah that's insane dude they covered they covered 10 six and one last year um that's a sign obviously of mike tomlin who we love uh they're over under we you said it jeff you like the over i do too they're over under eight and a half is this the year is this the year mike tomlin has a losing season after last season with kenny pickett there with george pickens in his second year we you know the receiving core should be a lot better than last year deontay johnson i felt like had the worst luck in the

league last year i think we both really like him um their offensive line certainly like it was better than a lot of people thought everyone sort of thought they were going to be trashed last year not only that they they drafted a left tackle in the first rounds uh with the 14th pick they you know i totally forgot about it i was on the depth chart yeah he could he he he needs a little bit of time though i don't think jones is going to play right away i'm sorry i also mentioned james daniels was they brought him two years ago but uh i think some of it was this is brand new yeah i mean they they have their defense. You look across their defense and you're like, oh, yeah, TJ Watt. Like, oh, yeah, Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Oh, yeah, Joey Porter in the second round. Like, oh, yeah, it's still Mike Tomlin. They know what they're doing. Yeah, I'm really in on this team. And can I just say this? Week one, they're playing Pittsburgh. I've already, I've already wagered on this game, but it's going to be one of our five. It's absolutely going to be one of our five.

I'm afraid we're going to move the line. So like hopefully this far in, like the casuals are out, they're hosting San Francisco who does not presently have a starting quarterback and the Steelers are underdogs. Like, please. I'm going to get off the plane. I'm betting this on tomorrow. I think this opened at three or three and a half.

I think it was two and a half now, right? Or is it still? I saw it at three still today. Oh, my God. Three still? I saw it at draft games. It was three when I looked before the show. Yeah, you better go make that. That will be one of our wagers.

I promise you week one anything with the plus we're taking them with pittsburgh absolutely 100 can i interest you in a tj watt um over 13 and a half sacks for the season i'm gonna look up uh where he was at last year and i was hurt last season that's pretty tasty we took the boats of one of the last year and hit it um let's see here i mean he's been over what i say 13 and a half he's been over that number the you know in 1920 and 21 and then obviously he only played 10 games last year i i like that number i'm i'm cool with that um one more thing about pittsburgh they start we mentioned san francisco and how much we like that then they have cleveland at home

monday night then they go to las vegas who we're gonna get to they stink then houston like they're they could end up starting out then they have baltimore week five they can end up starting out four no facing baltimore in week five which is always a i love it you know a really nice uh they and then you know just later in the season like they just have some nice stretches green bay arizona so so do you want to do pickings leads nfl and receivers are too too rich for your blood there we could do a little taste of it i i've never like this guy is absolutely insane like the every single day there's a highlight catch out of him like i'm buying all the stock in him that we can get i think the over touchdowns

is a definite yes plus 5 000 for that leading leading leading what if you're in the nfl um all right and uh ase north burrow mvp small sprinkle Our running back unders. Oh, we've got Najee Harris as a complete, as a lock for under. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Lock that. I like Jalen Warren. I feel like Jalen Warren's going to get a lot of work. So we have our running back unders, okay,

for all of the teams that presently have listed starting running backs. So we're under for Mixon. We're under for Ch backs. So we're under for Nixon. We're under for Chubb. We're under for Harris. Joe Burrow, MVP. We like the Tee Higgins over 1,000.5 receiving yards. Lamar Jackson under 775 rushing yards. Steelers, we're heavy on the Steelers.

Over 8.5 wins. Kenny Pickett over 3,300.5 passing yards. Pickens over 4.5 wins. Kenny Pickett, over 3,300.5 passing yards. Pickens, over 4.5 touchdowns. TJ Watt, over 13.5 sacks. Pickett, the leading wide receiver in the NFL, plus 5,000. Sounds good, buddy? Sounds really good. Really good.

We've done a lot more this year than previous years. We have. We have to increase our budget. Yeah, I think maybe we should. I also, I forgot to mention, I did like, could I interest you in a little Zay Flowers over 500 receiving yards? Could I interest you in that? Sure.

You want to do Zay? Whatever you want, buddy. Flowers over how much? 500? Come on. Hank's going to have to do a lot of work putting this together. Oh, that'll be a new thing for him. Put a graphic

out for us and everything. Do you know who was here today? Who? I waved goodbye to her during the show was the person you once thought was a robot. Oh, Game's wife. Yes.

Jeff once assumed we hired a robot. Go ahead. Very quick. I'm going to tell the story if you're still listening because it's very important. So back when we did I'll Take That Bet, which is really the industry's first gambling show, and Matt and Alex and Gabe put together who else was part of the early project I I I don't want to not give anyone credit who didn't help with the tech on that yeah we'll give Chad some credit the from the action network

yeah so they put together a show called I'll Take That Bet which is the first gambling show that anyone had it was an ESPN plus and Matt and Alex all those guys created the technology to do these type of shows everyone does now it really started with you guys right i don't want to give you the credit that like you guys started like making shows digitally um and all that stuff that happens with it so part of the show was what wasn't even our show right it was chad show chad did a show with was it blackjack who was it with that had the voice it was a podcast yeah it was a podcast an action network that i was on every now and then but mostly chad where they would give way their favorite wagers for every game but every game

would be announced with an English woman's voice. Okay? And the voice was so perfect, I thought it was a computer because it also was so brilliantly produced to where it sounded like you hit a button and the voice just popped in whatever you needed to say. So it would be like tonight we have Patriots-Texans. It would say New England Patriots versus Houston Texans. in whatever you needed to say so it'd be like you know like tonight we have patriots texans it would be the it was a new england patriots verse houston texans texans minus four in the most beautiful english accent there ever was okay like if you're making it it would be perfect okay now i don't think i knew gabe's wife is english but um we i it was mentioned at times it was like his wife and i just thought it

was like a joke a running joke we did a live show uh for was it for the super bowl i think it was maybe like a super bowl live show my favorite at a bar at a bar in new york city it was me and paulie and blackjack and chad and you guys were there as well and um gabe's wife was there and i met her for the first time and gabe was like this is the sound from the show this is the voice i was like no you're full of shit and she spoke and it was very clearly the voice of uh of the show we then asked the crowd matt remember we asked the crowd how many people thought that voice was computer was a computer voice and half the crowd raised their raised their hand too and now because of that yeah and now because of it now because of

ai it actually like sort of could be a computer generated voice wow we really were ahead weren't we i just remember yeah good and i i was obviously been to dinner with you guys many times now but it's very funny like that that's what i thought the first impression gabe's wife was it was a computer voice it was an all-time reveal watching that dawn on you where you were like wait a second this is actually a real person like that's crazy i used to i mean we did push a button where we went in order and uh and we recorded them the night before. And in the morning, I'd wake up in the morning and Gabe would send me a file.

Often they, they had just had the Gabe's kids, Gabe and George's kids. So they would have to like record in a bathroom and it'd be like, you know, some weird hour of the night. And Gabe would drag his amazing wife, Georgina into a,

into a room where they could just get quiet for 10 minutes, and she'd be like, what is this team called, the Buccaneers? That's what I believe it was his wife, because they had young children, and he's dragging his wife to, she has a full-time job too, to record these dumb NFL teams playing each other each week.

I still can't believe she did it. She's the best. One other story from that night, we had a bit where we had darren revel essentially walk up to the the stage and like cut a wrestling promo basically to talk shit to chad i think it was to chad and he did this whole thing and we played this music and it was like this whole spectacle and i told paul to say paul duke gonna say this afterwards do you remember? So he does this like five minute bit where he's like, I'll tell you something, brother.

Like the, I like the Eagles to cover whatever it was. And then he, he does this whole thing. And, and then LaDuca just gets close to the microphone. He goes, who was that guy?

Oh, geez. That was so good paula duca oh i love that was one of the most fun times we've ever had man we had a fun show this was second this was really fun it was uh it was me and paulie blackjack uh a little a little a little matt moore Moore was involved with that. It was a fifth person. Who was the fifth? Oh, Chris. Chris Rabon. Yeah, Rabon. Really a better, great guy. Chris is the best, I think, I've liked, who posts picks for free.

He posts, guys, not to give a, Chris Rabon, Action Network, go look at, he gives a free picks out on Action Network. He wins a lot of them. He's a great wager um you should follow him if you're looking to wager in all sports he's really good um yeah those were the times man remember that we did the christmas party with the pinata and i broke the pin i had to hit the pinata and you and dan rubenstein were there and you were like what is wrong with all these people oh Oh, dude. What a time. Life was simpler back then. All right, guys.

Hope you enjoyed the show today. We're back next week. We'll probably do, Matt, you want to do the east or west next week? Let's decide. Your call. I mean, we can just save the chief stuff for the end. We're just, we're all our money in Kansas City. How about we do the east?

We'll do the east next week so we'll hit um you know obviously the the the incredible division of the afc east the nfc east and we'll do the fish with the west at the end i hope you guys enjoyed this we're back next week a lot more wager and fun have a great one guys thanks Thanks, Jeff.