Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - North Divisions Team Totals and Player Props

Episode Date: August 25, 2022

Geoff and Matt are back, and this week they're looking at win totals and preseason player props for the NFC and AFC North divisions. There are plenty of good plays to be found here including both Geoff and Matt's favorite props of the offseason. Geoff knows which AFC North team will come out on top of the division, and Matt's got his eye on an NFC North wide receiver who's going to shatter his yardage total.Be sure to follow the podcast to get notified when new episodes drop each week, and leave a comment or tweet @geoffschwartz to let him know what you think of his picks. If you enjoyed this, come back next Wednesday when Geoff and Matt finish off their preseason betting with the West divisions.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's Thursday August 25th I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt for this Jeff Schwartz of Smart on You powered by the Varsity Podcast Network we are back for our wagering show our gambling show our future show the show that we do four times in the month of August getting ready for the start of the NFL season we will go over the futures the odds and all our thoughts about the South Divisions today. Excuse me. Let me redo that because that's the North Division. Hank got me all flustered, guys. We're going... Leave it in.

We're going to the North Divisions today. We're going North because we haven't done that yet. And I'm flustered because Hank, our producer Hank, I will give him credit first. I'll give him a carrot and then the stick. I feel like Michael Scott here first. I'll give him a carrot and then the stick. I feel like Michael Scott here.

You know, give him a carrot and the stick, right? He does a good job putting our rundowns for our gambling shows. Obviously, Matt and I prepare on our own, but he puts together a lot of odds and ends. You know, we ask him for certain things. He's got them in there. And we talked all week that we were doing the North divisions today, right? The AFC and NFC North. Talked all week about we were doing the North divisions today, right?

The AFC NFC North talked a week about that. And what does he do, Matt? He did the West for us. So we're going on the fly here. We're making this work. Sorry for the confusion, everyone. We're doing the North divisions today because we're waiting for the Sean Watson news. It has come out so we can kind of go ahead.

We're going to save the West for the last show because that's the best division in all football the afc west well the most fun with that one the one i know best um matt how are you buddy i'm good we're not done bagging on producer hank who gets a lot of good buzz on this podcast it's time to cut him down to size a little bit here the best part of all this is uh yeah it was like 11 we're recording this it's 12 o'clock pacific wednesday at like 11 15 the rundown was still from the other day and i was like i'm sorry like when is this going to get done and then at like 11 58 i look at the rundown and he's like frantically typing in elijah mitchell over And I'm like, what the hell is happening? I never even was told what division we were doing. And then I see it and I'm like, wait a second.

What are we doing here? So, Hank, do better. Well, no, you were told North earlier today. Yeah, I was told North by Hank. You were told North earlier today. So we're going to roll here as we normally do. So the premise of this is we get $1,000 per division we're going to spend. We'll go through win totals, props we like.

I'm very heavy on a couple in the AFC North and what I personally like. And then if we have leftover that we want to spend, we can roll it over. Or we have an extra $2,000, so we're doing 10 grand total, right? 8,000 divisions, two grand leftover. And I don't think we've spent much of that extra two grand yet.

I think like 50 bucks to that. So we'll see where that ends up. There just hasn't been a great feel for a lot of futures and props this year like I did last year. We'll see. And I was thinking today, Matt, how about this addendum to this? If we don't spend the full $10,000, because we're going to spend the full $10,000,

there are a lot of college things I like. And maybe the end of our West show, I'll throw in some, some college play, some futures I think are worth taking on the college side. So we will, we'll do that down the road possibly, but right now, so Matt, AFC, NFC, where do you want to go first? Well, let me just do a little, what they call in the biz a tease and say i have my favorite player prop of this whole season coming today and it's in the nfc so why don't we start with the afc okay leave that as a little speaking of carrot uh for the end of the show for people to hang on to okay let's start with the winner of last season of the division,

which was the Cincinnati Bengals. They went to the Super Bowl, as we know. They won all three of their playoff games in the final play of the game. Came short against the Rams. I am not as high on them as others are this season. They are actually no longer the favorite to win the division um their win total is going to be at um where's the win totals at what do you have the win total i think it's a not 10 right nine and a half bangles i had nine and a half nine

and a half are there things with the bangals that you feel comfortable about taking right away? I was going to take them to make the playoffs because I'm spoiler alert. We're going to come with my favorite play of the entire NFL off season in a few minutes here, but I think that's where I would be at, but the price is going to be very steep, obviously. Yeah.

I mean, what stinks about the Bengals? Is there a more fun team to root for this year than the Bengals. Like, what a great story last year. I mean, it's impossible to bet against Joe Burrow. You know, I just think that a lot of things are sort of recipes for disaster for them, in spite of how much I want them to do well. It was a bit of a fluky run last year it feels like

they got almost like hall of fame level production out of burrow and chase and hendrickson who like last year if you remember like hendrickson kept that defense afloat like they had a ton of holes on that defense they adjusted they you know they got better a little bit um but it feels like if any of those three guys were to just have any adjustment in their production at all it could really go south for them they also go from kind of a cake schedule to a much more difficult schedule this year this whole division has a pretty difficult schedule but obviously the Bengals uh it it shifts a lot since they won the division last year I mean they listen to this stretch after their buy in week 10 at At Pittsburgh, at Tennessee, home for KC, home for Cleveland with Watson back,

at Tampa, at New England, Buffalo, Baltimore. That's how they close the season. I mean, they could really have a tough time in all of those games. So I think you can get the under 9.5 for plus 110. That feels okay to me, but I don't really want to because Joe Burrow is awesome and he could just win every game, but he could win the MVP this year. So it's a stay away for me on the total.

He certainly could. Right now, the Bengals probably have the seventh best odds. Actually, they're tied for, I mean, they're tied for like fifth at plus 1200 with the Colts. It's Buffalo, Kansasansas city the chargers and the broncos are tied ravens next colts and bangles so um you know the sportsbooks are saying hey guys you know maybe you know maybe like slow down a little bit here on this um joe burrow to

throw for 30 30 regular season touchdowns is minus 310. I think that's a good play, but I'm not doing that. I mean, that feels like way too much. 35 touchdowns at plus 100. Wow. That actually feels like something that, I mean, obviously we've talked about this before, like doing any over for a player assumes they're healthy all season and the offensive line is better, right?

Better this season. You would imagine that there's more, another maturity level to the offense, to him. He had 34 touchdowns last season, threw for 4,600 yards in 16 of a possible 17 games. Are you, would you be comfortable, Joe Burrow plus 100 for 35 or more touchdown passes? Yes, if only because I would love to root for him to succeed.

Yeah, that assumes he's going to be healthy all season, but it also assumes that he'll play. That's not a crazy number to hit. I'm into that. I also have his – this is on FanDuel. Joe Burrow regular season passing yards at 43 75 and a half he had 4600 last season that feels really low why is it so low i don't know i like both of those that feels like a tasty over that's basically just like if he plays all season but

you mentioned it like they're the thing they did. The only thing they really did this off season was spend all of the money that they should be spending on a top level quarterback on offensive line. So he should have a lot of protection that offense, you know, their wide receiver depth is unbelievable. I think that's a, I think that's a pretty nice play. And it's at minus one 12.

So, I mean, the juice is not bad. Yeah. I'm into that. Right? Would you rather do the touchdowns or the yards or both? I'm going to put both in there for now.

Again, we still have a lot of money to spend. We have $1,000 for this division, and we still have, I think, what, $1,950 to spend on leftovers. Yeah, we could find ways to go back on the last show and put some more money on certain things. I mean, I'm not going to spend all the money in Kansas City, but it's possible. Yeah. All right. Anything else you like with the Bengals?

There's not much I think I feel. Again, you could bet them to make the playoffs. I wouldn't do that quite yet. I think there's also a way to play the total this year if they start out fast because their schedule is a little bit easier and you mentioned it uh warren sharp does this

with schedules all the time right like they're scheduled and look at past defenses like in the bottom third i think lower bottom third of past defenses they faced last year and this year they're in the top five of pass defenses. They have the biggest jump this season. Much tougher schedule. But there's a way to play this where they start fast and they have that hellacious schedule at the back end, and you bet their season total under

if you can get it above 9.5 at some point during the season. Let's say they're 7-3 through the first 10 games and they had that stretch you mentioned matt and they're now they're like you know 11 or 12 is their win total but the under then not every book offers that but there's ways to kind of play this throughout the season um that feels like a spot you could get that at but i don't know i mean if anyone if you feel comfortable doing that i obviously you can't do that now. Yeah. It feels, yeah, their number feels almost like it's adjusted. Like, it feels like they should be this team that everyone's in on this year, but the number is not that high.

So I agree. It's almost like you're not getting a ton of value. I think, look, their defense played really well at moments last year, right? I think people are still like, how did the Chiefs not score in the AFC Championship game? Right. In the second half. How did they not even score more than a touchdown

in the first game against them, right? In the second half. And I think, like, is Zach Taylor a good coach? Right. Like, was he like 6-20 before Joe Burrow got healthy last season? I think there's a lot of questions about just Zach Taylor. So I get why the number is 9.5, and I get why they have the seventh best odds to win the AFC Conference.

Yeah, I mean, if we think about like – if you remember this time last year, we were probably talking about like is it a good bet to do Zach Taylor first coach fired? Like I think it's again worth mentioning i said we said this on another one of these episodes like that run that the bangles had last year was utterly unprecedented like if they had gone eight and nine last year bangles fans would have this number would still be the same like i feel like everyone would have said like wow there's so much better the The year before that, they were 4-11-1.

They were atrocious. So look, it just seems there's a lot of things that could happen with this team. If Joe Burrow is on the field, they're going to be good. The guy is just extra. He's just so special. They're the team I had the least read on of the entire AFC North. Yeah. So let's get to the team that I – the line is moving in my direction.

I got this number at about plus 200. But I have Baltimore to an AFC North. It's now plus 140. This feels – and I got it plus – I bought it myself at like plus 200, plus 210 when this line came out, Matt. I don't get – they were 8-3 last year before Lamar got hurt. And mind you, that was with everyone else being hurt, right? Their tackles, their running backs, their cornerbacks,

half their defense, and they were 8-3. Now they're all back healthy. And typically, if you have a bad injury year, you have a healthier year after that. Yes, they don't have the wide receivers. Okay, fine. But the offense is going to move the ball. It's hard to play this offense.

It's hard to play Lamar Jackson. They're a disciplined team that plays special teams so well. And all they've done since Lamar's been the quarterback is win regular season football games in a high clip, Matt. This is my favorite wager of the entire offseason, is Baltimore to win the AFC North. Again, I got it plus 200, plus 140 now. I just think people are underestimating

how good Baltimore was last year with how beat up they are. And most often, again, that switches year to year and they're very well coached. They have an offense that's very hard to stop. They don't make mistakes. They're great on special teams. I got the Ravens to doing the AFC North. I love it.

I'm a big buyer on the Ravens this year. You mentioned their bad injury luck. Just to go a little bit more in detail here, they were the least healthy team, the least healthy offense, and the second least healthy defense. So, like, unbelievable bad luck. It wasn't just like it was one side of the ball.

You know, you mentioned the fact that they you know the receivers like that's probably the hole in the team when when jackson was uh mvp in 2019 the the top receiver on the team had less than 600 yards that year so it's not like he needs some amazing receiver to to you know really show out and by the way rashad bateman might be that guy like rashad bateman i i've we both really liked him coming out of minnesota and he showed some flashes last year when he was healthy um yeah their secondary was such a weak point for them they honestly like they probably added five guys if you consider that peterson and humphrey or peterson humphrey were both hurt last year

they add hamilton they add williams and kyle fuller like they really went aggressively at that unit um and also this year they they only play two of the top 10 run defenses um so they should really benefit from a different schedule um i actually i'll raise you jeff i'll how about them to be plus plus 750 to be the top seed in the afc what do you think of that one uh i'm in for that i think it's buffalo but i think there's value in them being the top seed. I don't think they can. Buffalo is just, I think it's Kansas City are just freight trains right now. But we said plus $700. We got $2,000 to spend here extra on top of this. So I think it's either them, Kansas City, or Buffalo.

I mean, yeah. I think they're one of the three best shots. And, you know, everyone on earth is on Buffalo right now. So I feel like it's a good time to diversify. Yeah. To make the playoffs, they're minus 156. But again, the division bet is still plus money, and that means they make the playoffs too.

This is where you can find those little edges, right, guys? Where you have it's minus 156 to make the playoffs and yeah the wild card is an option here i get it but if you feel strongly they're going to win the division the plus 140 is a better number right and they make the playoffs anyways so you're basically betting one minus 156 that they're going to be a wild card team which i think is a very uh unwise wager to make yeah man they're over a juice to minus 160 on nine and a half people are feeling this team yeah you can't touch that right now um so yeah i mean i i just i'm in on them i props for me not i don't really i'm not looking at um lamar jackson props i just again i

think it's very hard to take overs for quarterbacks especially one like him who is so uh mobile um that you know there's always that injury uh opportunity so i would probably stay away from from any lamar jackson props yeah not if they're such a confusing team with what they do on offense it's sort of a hard one to to go play a prop on that one i'm with you uh it certainly is i'm seeing if they have any, like J.K. Dobbins is plus 105 for eight touchdowns or more. It's tough for some of these, right? I mean, because you just don't know injury-wise.

Lamar Jackson's plus 200 for eight rushing touchdowns or more this season. Actually, it might not be that bad. I gotta look up what his numbers have been for that. But I just – Overs are, to me, a little bit tougher than taking unders this time of year.

Yeah. What did you say his number was for rushing touchdowns? Eight, but he's never had eight in his career. I see him fandled five and a half. No, I see – To score eight rushing touchdowns or more is plus 200. Oh, I see. It's five and a half.

Five and a half is 200. I misunderstood you I see. It's five and a half. I misunderstood you. Yeah. What, what's the juice on that? It's minus one, 12 each side. His last two full seasons,

he said seven. So I'm, yeah, it's tough. Yeah. I'd probably be out on this. All right. So yeah,

I'm, I'm pretty good with, with the Ravens right now. His MVP is plus 2000. I'm not, I'm not on that. Is right now. MVP is plus 2,000. I'm not on that. I'm just not going to do that. But still better, in my opinion, than Dak Prescott at plus 1,400. Dak's not winning.

Russell Wilson, they're not winning the MVP. Assuming full health, it's Mahomes, Allen, Lamar. That's it. I cannot wait to get to the AFC West. Broncos fans, you're going to be very upset with me. All right, let's get to... You want to get to the AFC West. Broncos fans, you're going to be very upset with me. All right. Let's get to, you want to do Steelers or Browns next? Well, I think we should do the Browns next because their win total is higher than Pittsburgh's, which is pretty interesting.

Their win total is eight and a half. Brave souls taking the over are getting plus money brave souls who may be uh completely out on the concept of karma completely um what do you think about cleveland okay so eight and a half eight and a half feels a little bit high right so like let's let's look at their schedule right now little bit high right so like let's let's look at their schedule right now we know watson's out 11 games okay so it's so it's panthers on the road jets steelers falcons chargers patriots ravens bangles dolphins bills bucks okay so they're not going to beat the bucks the bills the bangles the ravens the chargers right with jacobyissett. That's five teams already, right?

Yeah. Maybe the Patriots, Steelers. So let's say they go four and seven. You think they're beating Baker Mayfield week one? I don't. I'm taking care of that. I'll tell you right now, that'll be one of the plays I like in week one most likely for our show is Carolina.

Yeah, same. So let's say they go four and seven in the first 11 games okay with jacoby bursette then it's texans then okay so let's say they win the first game with watson hasn't played a year and a half look terrible in the preseason okay bangles raven saints commander stealers like they're not winning eight games or eight and a half nine games like i think you have to take the under here yeah i mean i i agree um value wise it's yeah where is it juiced uh too many windows open they are minus 140 to the under that it's not that bad yeah it's not i mean honestly like it would be so fun to bet against them all year that i think that's uh that's not a bad idea i think if you're if you're a fantasy player um and you're my approach to my draft i hope no none of my

competitors are listening like amazing chance to get the browns defense for the first four weeks and not have to like invest heavily in a defense they have such an easy schedule jeff as you walked it through how to start the year um i do think look i i feel like at the start of the year. I do think, look, I feel like at the beginning of the season, they're going to sort of matter because they have such a good run game. Nick Chubb, like this is the season they're just going to feed him the ball constantly. I'm intrigued by him with some of his props. He's plus a thousand to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns. I feel like that's kind of an interesting way to play it because,

you know, they kind of spread it around. And I do think the Ernest Johnson was pretty good last year. I feel like people are kind of sleeping on him. But if you can't throw the ball the first part of the season, everyone's going to load the box up, right? You would.

Yeah. I mean, you're asking me like I would know better than you, but like a hundred percent. Yeah. Like they're not going to be able to move the ball a ton. You would think, but that,

I mean, last year they couldn't throw either. I also think like there's, I think Cleveland has this reputation for like having a lot of offensive weapons. Like they just seem to always have that reputation. Have we gotten a good look at their receiving core? Like the ghost of Amari Cooper and Peoples Jones and Joku. Like that's, that's not a super stellar unit.

And they still have the offensive line, which is solid, but it just doesn't feel like they're going to do super well this year. So I would go with you on the under. And I would look, I mean, obviously, there's no Deshaun Watson props or Jacoby Brissett props, but I'd play under here. And I don't know what... They don't have playoff odds for the Browns.

No playoffs, I should say, but it's probably minus 200, 250. I would probably lay off that. But, yeah, out on the Browns for obvious reasons. All right, we got one more team, a very interesting team in the AFC North, and that is the Pittsburgh Steelers. There is a wager I think we have to make here matt um but otherwise what's your um what's your thought on their win total this year yeah so it's seven and a half um it's plus 100 to take the over and on behalf of mike tomlin

i asked this question seven and a half wins are you fucking kidding me the steelers have never been worse than eight and eight and that's with 16 games this year we just talked about how we don't like the browns we talked about how the bangles could be kind of a strange team and you know they always are competitive with the Ravens. Pittsburgh flying under the radar at seven and a half wins. I love them at their over. I also it's even money. I also am a big fan of them. Plus 350 to make the playoffs. That is unbelievably good odds for a team that maybe improved at quarterback, maybe improved at wide receiver.

They still have some problems on the offensive line, but it's the Steel Jeff like this happens every year yeah I we can't bet and make the playoffs and here's why let's say Kenny Pickett is just himself this season okay what does he rank in quarterbacks in the AFC conference alone it's like he's better than Tua no he's like the maybe 12th best quarterback like they're not making the playoffs and for year one or Kenny Pickett they may win eight or. They're not making the playoffs in year one on our Kenny Pickett. They may win eight or nine games. They made the playoffs last year with probably the worst quarterback in football. Yeah, but the Ravens are better this year.

I could see a scenario where you have the Bills, Chiefs, Chargers. You have to have a South team in there. It'd be Bills, Chiefs, Colts, and Ravens, right? That's four. And the three others come, what, Chargers, Bengals. Raiders, Broncos. Yeah, I just don't see that. You're basically saying that they're going to make the playoffs

and Bengals are not, which I think is a little bit steep. I mean, why not? It's not an even money it's not coin flip it's plus 350 i know those are really good those are incredible odds i just i feel like the better the over is the better i mean i'm we could talk about it and we go through this but like it's a sprinkle i wouldn't say that it's like the best it's i don't think it's like inevitable to happen but when you look at these teams that are plus three you know plus 300 or better to make the playoffs like they are by far the best of that group i think like i i know that the afc

is tough but there's a couple of things about the steelers i mean well maybe that's not the way to play it if you want a long shot but i just want to remind you mike tomlin he's in his career the steelers have won 63 of the games where he's the coach okay yeah they went nine seven and one last year with maybe the worst offense i've ever seen like they were unbearable to watch on offense and every week it was like i feel like i got on the show and was like all right jeff like so we're taking the steelers to the lions like every single week the steelers lions and texans were always in contention for us because they just hung around and that's what the Steelers do like they're never gonna get embarrassed even if it's you know for one week at a time the other thing we forget is like yeah they have some questions

at quarterback but if they have to go with Mitch Trubisky remember Mitch Trubisky never had a losing record in Chicago like we all bag on this guy but like it's not like he was super set up for success with matt nagy and you know a bunch of crappy receivers and bad talent around him like he can play he's not amazing but he's not going to embarrass them and kenny pickett like we already talked about i really like him as a as a possible he is the front runner for rookie of the year but it's a plus 900 and if like let's just say that he starts playing by week two or week three they're they're not going to be terrible they're going to be in the mix i think that's a that's a really nice value and one other sort of long shot here if you do like pittsburgh to go

over seven and a half how about mike tomlin coach the year 30 to 1 30 to 1 to win coach the year like think about what an achievement it would be if they were you know 10 and 7 with a rookie quarterback like i could i think that's a really nice value really yeah i mean who's who's winning that award this year like okay is it mcdermott like who else yeah who would you like to bet on that i mean i i no one but i would i would i don't think that that's i wouldn't bet on that but we can talk about it in a few minutes 30 to 1 really you really think i i mean i've got another contender later in the show but i think i think that's pretty good odds

for yeah it is um we'll put it in the we'll put it in here just to just to just to have it in here i didn't sell you i really thought you would like that one. I mean, I just think that you're just – we talked about this earlier. I think you're just like fishing for that. I just don't think it's going to happen. Correct. It's hard to talk me into that. I am indeed fishing for that.

It's hard to talk me into that one. I mean, picking it plus – how about TJ Watt over 14.5 sacks at minus 122? God. Watt over 14.5 sacks at minus 122. He's had 14.5, 15, and 22.5 the last three seasons. Why not just bet him defensive player of the year plus money? Because I feel like if he's getting 15 sacks. Yeah, but with Aaron Donald, there's always that concern, though, that Donald has a freak show year. Yeah.

What is it? It's also voter fatigue. What's it? Plus 800, is it? I think I fatigue what's it plus 800 is it what i think i just saw it right plus 800 um let's see he can have 15 sacks and that's not winning the defensive part of the year yeah but i i laying money on him to basically lead the league in sacks feels like a bad way to invest to me what do you have what do you have for i i understand that i like pick a plus 900 for yes i have that in there i'm with you there so what defense i don't think he won who won last year right so um i just saw it right

here it's plus 800 yeah it's i mean i think anytime like if he misses three games he's not hitting that so i i or two games um all right so for player of the year for eight to one is not bad so right now we have i think we went any more stealer stuff um no okay i don't. I really like the skinny picket bet, man. Oh, yeah, it's going to happen. So right now we have Burrow over 43, 75.5 passing yards, which is less than he threw last season. Burrow, 35 touchdowns or more, plus 100. Ravens, AFC North. Ravens, top seed.

Browns, under 8.5. Steelers, over 7.5. Watt, defensive player of the Year and Pickett plus 900. I love the Pickett one too. What do you want to put on that one? 100? Sure. Let's do that.

Let's have one 1,000. That's great. Which one of the Burrow ones is there one you want to keep or throw out or you like both of them? I really like the passing yards one. We got extra money. Let's do both. Okay. What are we going to put on both?

So our standard is 200. why don't we just do 200 and just go a little over budget in this division we like a lot of things i like the i love this ravens afc north 200 yeah i love that ravens top seed what do you think 100 i mean that's all that's yeah that's a lot we could go less i mean we do i would go 50 on that one all right let's do it and then we have um browns under eight and a half i'm good with standard units on these two like 200 good and then yep 200 on steelers over and then what wall defensive player of the year another 50 on that one sure so we're a little bit we're gonna be a little bit we're at uh 1200 for this one all right follow me you want to throw 25 on Tomlin to win

this is this is this is the Zach this is the Zach Wilson rant except this one actually makes sense if the Steelers win that division he's winning coach the

division and of course right Zach Wilson's hurt so like that retire rant was like for all you guys who you know again don't it was like two days afterwards too it was perfect it was like right afterwards all right who, you know, again, don't. It was like two days afterwards too.

It was perfect. It was like right afterwards. All right. Let's get to the NFC North. NFC North. Let's do it. The Packers win total is 10 and a half. It's minus 160.

I don't know. You hate laying minus 160 on anything. But can I, is this the one that can intrigue you? Yes. Here we go. You hate laying minus 160 on anything. But can I intrigue you? Yes, here we go. You ready? A wild one for the Packers. I'm going to do this early on. Bills, Buccaneers, Chiefs, and Packers.

Each over 10.5 wins at plus 600. I swear to God, I was going to try to get you to go in on a five-way parlay of those teams. I forget who you said, but it was like Tampa green Bay, Baltimore, Buffalo and Kansas city. I think to all make the playoffs. And it was like plus two 50 or something.

I closed. I was going to do it at some point during the show. So bills, bucks, cheese Packers, each over 10 half regular season wins. Yes. Oh man. Plus 600 So Bills, Bucks, Chiefs, Packers, each over 10 and a half regular season wins. Yes. Oh, man.

Plus 600? We still have $1,700 to spend on extra money. I'm okay with it, I think. I mean, before we start getting crazy with this, can we talk quickly about the Packers? Because I came into this wanting to fade them, right? So their total is 10.5 or 11. They're going to win 13 games again.

I mean, it's going to happen again. I don't think they're going to win 13 games again, but you don't need them to win 13 games for this to hit. No team has ever won 13 games four seasons in a row. I really think that, look. The division is so bad. The division is so bad they're the divisions the division is bad i'm a little higher on the division maybe than everybody else is but they have such a unique work this is another thing warren sharp pointed out they have a really unique schedule quirk here four of their first

five weeks they play rookie head coaches so their first game of the year i think i'm i'm higher on minnesota we'll get to them in a second they play minnesota week one first uh first game for kevin o'connor right like that's gonna be a tough one then they play chicago sunday night football at home i you might as well just put all of your money in your entire life on the green bay packers money line in that game they're 100 winning that one then they have todd bowles who's you know not really a first year head coach but that they have them in week three new england giants jets washington like that is a pretty soft schedule and a lot of things can go right for them there so i have a feeling they're probably going to start hot again um they they're going to be favored in every single game they play except Buffalo and Tampa. Um, they get the NFC East, like so many things can are easy for them this year. I feel like

every year they get such a benefit from some random quirk in the schedule. Um, that I think this year they'll be able to overcome some of the things that maybe worry the most of us, like where, you know, what's their passing game going to to be like maybe they don't have to do a ton of passing until later in the season right like i i don't know i just feel like they're things are breaking their way but um i do think when there's alternate win total at 11 and a half minus 110 for over that yeah over yeah i just don't i don't think they're winning 13 again this year like i just i just don't over 10 and a half wins is minus 160 that's just a steep price but i'm with you i think they're going to continue to win a lot of games i i'm just like not in on the total like i think you don't

we don't have to play this total like i i do think 11 and the fact that this is 11 i think is a little fishy like everybody wants to say the packers are going to go 12 and four, 13, 13 and four. I feel like this is, they're hanging a low number here too. It just feels weird to me. Like,

I don't know what public better is going to take the under for this. What about Packers make the playoffs minus 500? No, no. If Aaron Rogers gets hurt, this that's it's in the trash. I know. I know you gets hurt, it's in the trash. I know. I knew you would say that.

It's a terrible bet. I just wanted to see what you would say. I'd rather bet to miss the playoffs at plus 350. You can talk me into that one. Yeah, that's not going to happen. But sure, yeah, that's a way to play that. Yeah, I really don't. There's not much I like, I mean, on this.

What was their schedule, you said? They start off with Minnesotanesota chicago tampa new england's giants jets washington so tampa bay's first loss of the season week three at tampa bay plus 195 will tampa bay be more or less of a plus 195 favorite in that game? They'll be less, right? I mean, they're going to be favored. Is this a good way to play this? You're basically picking Tampa Bay to win this game at plus 195 if we think the Packers are going to win week one and week two.

You're saying this is the first Packers loss? First Packers loss, Tampa Bay week three, plus 195. I love that. I love that. I love that one. Yes, I'm in on that one, Jeff. I think that's a great way to play that. Right? Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't bet the house on it,

but I think that's a really fun way to play it because they're a guarantee against Chicago, and they're probably going to beat Minnesota Week 1. Yeah, and you're not going to get Tampa Bay plus 195 in this game to win outright. No. That's what you're wagering on, right? They're going to be favored. You're wagering on Tampa Bay on the money line at plus 195 for that game.

Yeah, I think the look ahead on that one is Tampa by three and a half. Yeah, by three, three and a half. Yeah. There'll be minus 135 favorites, right? Minus 135 favorites. I like that one. That's a good wager, right? Let's go.

Yeah, I like that. There we go. We found a like that one. It's a good wager, right? Let's go. Yeah, I like that. There we go. We found a Packers one. I did put that Bills, Packers, Bucks, Chiefs over 10.5 wins at plus 600 in here too. So we have more with the Packers. All right, let's get to the Vikings. I know you love the Vikings this year. Let's hear your Vikings love.

Yeah, I mean, look. Their win total, we have it at 9. Interesting. Their win total, we have it at nine. Interesting. I would take them at nine for sure, even at minus 130. So look, I think Mike Zimmer is getting a lot of grief for not being the guy there, but he was really consistent like minnesota was very good every single year but one of the things that happened with them last year they had 14 games that finished as one score game last year right like that's unbelievable and some of that they i think they were six and eight in them uh or maybe they're eight and six let me double check that quickly regardless it was that every single game was close for them they had some wacky stuff go against them go for them the fact is that's a coaching problem right like they never when whenever they would sort of like shoot out to a lead they would never extend the lead like they have all this dynamic these dynamic personnel and offense and it never really translated into dominance it felt like every

game something could go wrong yeah they obviously this obviously this year, like, you know, there's going to be a little bit of a disruption in the beginning with a first year head coach. I don't care how good Justin Jefferson is. Like they're going to have some struggles at some point this season. But last year they were eight and nine. They could have easily done better given like, remember they had some wacky missed kicks like that one against Arizona in

the beginning of the year. Cousins missed a game with COVID. Hopefully that's a little bit better for everybody this year um this year they play nine home games like every team in the nfc they play the nfc west or last year they played the nfc west and afc north this year they play the nfc east and afc east so we really only need them to improve two games after last year with a much easier schedule, a different coach, and I don't know. I just think a more dynamic team. I just think they're a really safe bet to outperform their expectations this year.

So the only concern I have with this is I couldn't pick their coach out of a freaking lineup. Like, I don't know. He is – Could you pick Zach Taylor out of a lineup? Well, now I can. I just feel like. Now you can.

You have a young coach. And we just talked about Zach Taylor. We don't really trust him. We have a young coach who's doing this for the first time, you know, who's trying to be, like, in the mold of, you know, Sean McVay, right? Like, I'm just. That's the worry I have with this. With them in general. So, that's really worry I have with this, with them in general.

So that's really it. I think your points are well taken. Your points are very well taken. I am with you on they're over. That is a wager I'm going to take on this show. One other one I found here, Justin Jefferson on FanDuel is over 1,350.5 yards this season. He's been over that number in both of his NFL seasons so far.

I don't know why the number is so low. I don't know if they're telling us something, but that feels like a very low number for someone who had 1,600 yards last season. Yeah, it does. Are they telling us, like, is this offense going to run the ball more? Are they going to have other targets? Ph was feeling hurt last season a little bit too right i think he's yeah it's a lower number for him it just kind of seems odd right it seems like yeah i mean i i i think it's funny that i don't think they are going to run it quite as much and if

they are going to run it as much i don't think they're going to just feed dalvin cook all the time that feels like a sort of old school coach mentality i like cook it under 1150 and a half uh rushing yards i just don't feel like they're going to feed him constantly and dalvin cook i mean a dalvin cook how much how much is it what under 1150 um and point he's under that number he's only been over that number really by nine yards last year and then two years before that. I like this number actually. What is it? I think I mean, it's even money I think.

No, under what number? You said 1150? Yeah, 1150. So the other thing with Dalvin Cook, like Dalvin Cook I think leads the NFL in carries that seem to end with a horrible injury that doesn't actually matter. Don't you every week, you're like, that's it. Of course, they've been overusing him.

It was just a matter of time. Two plays later, he runs for 40 yards. I feel like every single game, they're bringing the card out, and he's like, I'm good. Put me back in. So at some point, they're going to catch up. I'm always fine with taking the unders or running backs. Yeah, that's a cheat code, I think, in these player props. Plus 260 to win the division for the Vikings is interesting.

I will say, going back to your Kevin O'Connell point, three of the last five winners of the Coach of the Year Award were first-year head coaches. And Matt Nagy won it, remember. So it is possible that he could come in and just like be the next like mcveigh guy and just be awesome so i'm not saying it will happen but he is 21 and that's every everybody's doing that bet and i kind of i like the tom one better but um so i do think that they're gonna be good i put those in there

for right now for the v. You already move on? Anything else for the Vikings? No. I mean, just to remember, like, the NFC weaker conference, they have the advantage of the extra home game this year. So I think that they're a sneaky way to go over there. I like it. I'm with you.

Okay. Who's next? Next is Detroit. They are, let's see here, they are 6.5. Their win total, of course, because of hard knocks, is juiced to the over. Overs minus 125, unders plus 105, plus 1,000 to win the division. All right.

So I guess this is not your team that has your favorite player pop yet, I would imagine, right? On the contrary, Jeff. This is my team with my favorite player, Pratt. So I'm going to guess in a second. Yeah, give us the case for the Lions first. But the Lions have got to be under here. And I know that we're excited about what they're building.

I think they have a lot of talent on this roster, like Dan Campbell. I'm not going to be seduced by hard knocks. But they have a quarterback who does not win football games under center, right? Under Sean McVay, Jared Goff won double-digit games in two of the four seasons, and he won a total of 42 games while he was in Los Angeles

with 20 losses, 42 and 20 in the regular season. Without Sean McVay, he is 3-17-1 as a starting quarterback. I know that quarterback wins is not, we don't like using that very often, but he's freaking awful. He's not going to be any better this year. And I like their offensive line.

I like Jamison Williams. He's not going to play very much. Don't shake your head at me. If you have Jared Goff, if you have the Lions over this, Matt, I'd be very upset with you. I do not buy Jared Goff and the Lions winning enough games this season to make a wager on they're over the way to go.

One thing about the Lions. Good teams win, great teams cover. 11-6 against the spread last year. With one of the most talent. We're not picking games for that. Hold on. With one of the most talent- that hold on with one of the most talent poor teams in the league and what that proves is not anything about their their win total it was the fact that they were in every game even the games where they're getting blown out remember

early in the season they were playing i think it was san francisco and they were down by a thousand and then they ended up coming back and they ended like, this team never quits. I think they, well, look, I'm not betting the house on Jared Goff. I understand that. But Jared Goff, you're being a little bit unfair to him, I think, in that last year. I'm certainly not. Dude. No, the first year, when he was a rookie with Jeff Fisher,

they go 0-7. Then the next four years, he has a winning record. And then last year with Detroit, he was 3-10. I get it they lost by eight by like 17 by two by 10 by two by 23 by nine by 30 they tied the steelers then they lost to the browns with tim boyle starting quarterback they lost the bears by two i mean like some of these games are close and they get their ass kicked in a lot of them against good teams.

Like, I don't really. This year they play Chicago twice. They play the NFC East. They play the Panthers. They play the Jets. They play the Seahawks. They play Washington. Is the Lions your favorite play over no no this is

where i haven't gotten my player prop jeff i just think that i think it's a sucker's bet every the public is all over the lions but i do think that seven wins is a fair expectation for them i they have maybe the best offensive line football right they right? They have one of them, yeah. Okay, fine. I mean, if you say that that's an expectation they're striving for, sure. But I don't think it's one they're going to actually I'm not putting money on that. That's fine, because you're putting money

on this player prop. I'm telling it to you right now. Do you have, I wrote a player prop in the rundown, if you're looking at it. I don't know if that is the same player prop that we have, but I wrote a player prop in the rundown if you're looking at it. I don't know if that is the same player prop that we have, but I wrote down the one I would like to make on this team. Go ahead. I guarantee it's – I don't know what it is.

Oh, you want to do – okay, go for it. You say yours, but mine is a lock. Mine is Goff under 3,600 passing yards. I mean, I don't – where is this coming? He had 3,200 last year. He only played 14 games. I don't know, know man i'm just out on jared i think he's not gonna throw for 212 yards a game like that's not that's not a crazy number it's he's not he's not fragile the previous he's played over jared golf no i just don't i don't think that that's a great He's not fragile. Wait, are you going over Jared Goff?

No, I don't think that that's a great bet. He's played 14 or more games every season. He's been the full-time starter. I don't think that he's going to get injured. He's not trash. There are trash quarterbacks that start in this league. He's fine. He's also not very good.

Yeah, but you're betting on him to be a abjectly awful like i just don't see it don't win football games but that doesn't matter about passing yards let me no i know look we're not doing that you're doing this one i'm giving you free money like just just pipe down for a second i'm on ross saint brown Brown. Can you just guess how many targets he had last year? He started in, let me get the exact number here. He started nine games. How many targets do you think he had? Let's go with, must be high, like 75.

He had 120 targets in nine starts. 120. He had over 900 receiving yards. Wow. I just look at this right now. You're right. This is 119. Crazy.

So last year, so they draft Jamison Williams. Jamison Williams, I just, the news, he's missing the first month. His number is so low. His number is so low. They draft Jamison Williams. Jamison Williams, I just, the news, he's missing the first month. His number's so low. His number is so low. His number is 850.5 receiving yards. He was a rookie last year. They had no other receivers in that entire offense.

This year, they draft Jamison Williams. Jamison Williams, if the Lions suck, he might not play. Like, honestly, like there is a chance that he comes back in the middle of the season. That's about what they're targeting now. But by then, Amon Rossi Brown might have 100 targets. Like they just feed this guy the ball constantly and he doesn't drop him. Like he's super reliable. So I'm a humongous buyer and I'm willing to go way above our standard unit on this. I think he is a lock to go

over that 850 for the season. I put it in there. I love it. Good research on that one. It's a great answer. Great low, great later round fantasy pick as well for those. I love it. They're saying he's going to have a worse year. It's so bizarre.

No, that's it. I was really excited to give you that one oh dude when i looked it up you just said it in 90 catches last year and in in nine games 120 targets like what are we talking about bad they're gonna throw him the ball even more exactly they're behind all the time yeah uh all right so 2000 on that call it the division uh why don't we move why don't we spend four seconds on the Bears? I mean, I would be very comfortable taking under five and a half here for Chicago. Yes. Oh, there's a six and a half.

If there's an alternate line, I think they're the only team that is actively trying to be bad this year. They are the Texans this year. Okay. Under three and a5 plus 390. Under 4.5 plus 185. I would take under 4.5 for sure. Under 4.5 plus 195?

Name one thing that they're even average at. Oh, yeah. Nothing. I'm not kidding. Like, seriously. Like, they don't... Like, they're... average at oh yeah nothing i'm not kidding like i like seriously like they don't like they're the best players on their defense they trade khalil mac they let hakeem hicks go to the bucks which i think is one of the most underrated moves of the whole offseason i just saw offensive line stinks hicks is playing well in camp no surprise because he's awesome like

whenever he was in there that defense was good one of the most underrated guys in the league their secondary stinks. They're going to trade Robert Quinn. They're receiving court is awful and they're all hurt already. Like this team is going to be absolutely awful. Um, I'm with you on that. Um,

they're going to be, they're going to be very bad. Worst regular season record plus seven 50. Love that. Book it, do it. Okay. Love that. Book it. Do it. Okay.

Love that. That's way better than the alternate than the alt line. Really? You think so? I do. I also like talking about their schedule quickly here. They start San Francisco Green Bay 0-2. They have Houston, who we both like. But by the end of the season, they they go week 13 home for for green bay by at that point

who knows what sort of shape justin fields is in the end of the season philadelphia buffalo detroit minnesota maybe all of them are in playoff contention detroit i know you're out on um but like is justin fields gonna be playing this whole season like if if he's really banged up and the team stinks and their backup, it are their backups are Simeon and Nathan Peterman, dude. Like it gets dark in a hurry. There's not a lot to play for there.

I'm with you. I'm good with plus 700 on that. Love that love. I'm trying to, now I'm trying to find the Packers thing. I bet on my offshore, but I don't think it's here. Oh,

that'd be so good. I meant to float this one by you. This is a little bonus for week one. Ready for this one? The Niners plus whatever. This is a three-team parlay involving three

AFC North teams. It's the Ravens minus seven at the Jets and Joe Flacco. It's the Steelers plus six and a half against Cincy at Cincy. And it's the Panthers minus one and a half against Cleveland. And that

plus six eleven. It's pretty tasty. Are we already doing parlays in our preview? I'm just throwing it out. I'm just I'm just I'm excited Jeff. It's August it out. I'm just, I'm excited, Jeff. It's August 24th. I'm just giving you a little appetizer.

We got a whole year of this. I mean, week one lines, we're going right to home dogs. And like, I just going to hate myself for betting on the Falcons, the Texans. We're not betting on the fucking Falcons,

Jeff. I'm not doing it. You're not allowed. I'm not betting on Marcus Mariota at any point. I am out. Saints are out. Four and a half point favorites in Atlanta. No. He's not playing in fucking Eugene.

I'm out. He sucks. We're never betting on Marcus Mariota. No chance. Texans plus eight hosting the Colts is going to happen. I'm telling everyone right now. Yeah. Kansas City got bumped to three and a half.

Dang it. And Arizona. I think we need to three and a half. Dang it. And Arizona. I think we need to wrap up the show. If we're starting to go into the Chiefs half point line moves. All right. Oh, I bet some of these are ready. I took the lines at plus four and a half at home against the Eagles for week one. But it's at three and a half now.

There we go. It's moving. All right. So we have Packers first loss against tampa bay in week three at plus 195 what do you want to put on that one god 100 yeah yeah i see you typing a two in there if we could do it too that's fine we had jefferson over 1350.5 yards that feels like a half unit that's a lot of yards yeah vikings over their win total 200 what was your Gavin Cook what was the juice on that one

the odds 110 okay I think that's a 200 play for us yeah I think so I mean you hate to root against guys

but even if you want to double you want to have 400 on this one there's there's no limit Jeff 400 is fine let's go

50 Bears worst record love that okay so that's a 1050 so we have a lot Jeff 400 is fine. Let's go. 50 bears was record. Love that. Okay. So that's a thousand 50. So do we have a lot of money to play with for the rest of, of our, we do the,

the 10 wins thing. No, no, no, we haven't. No, sorry. I forgot about that.

Bills Packers bucks. Chiefs over 10 and a half wins at plus 600. What are we putting on that one? A hundred. Sure. A hundred 50. You'd like putting on that one? 100? Sure. 150 to make the 50 even out? Sure. There we go.

So, dude, we have a lot of money to play with for the West divisions. Great. That's just how you wanted it. I know, right? I would do more on the Bears' worst record if we won it. We can come back. We can also come back. I mean, supposedly these picks are being locked in by Hank.

But I mean, after today, who knows what's happening with him. Hank to make it to next episode plus 400. I'm not in charge of that. So that's up to you guys. That's up to you and the boss man if Hank makes it for another week. Who knows? I mean, he wasn't here the other day for a personal issue, so I'm glad he's back, though.

At least he's back. At least he's back and filling out rundowns incorrectly. We love Hank, but we needed to give him a good ribbing. Yeah. Take us all, Jeff. All right, guys. Powered by the varsity podcast network.

We'll be back next week. Again, we're going back to two shows and we're doing the AFC West. Cannot wait. Football's almost here. College football, by the way, Matt,

this weekend. Do you know that? I did. Do you want to give out a quick play? I'll probably take Illinois. I think it's 10 and.5 at home against Wyoming. Otherwise, it's just like there's a game in Ireland. Northwestern is getting 13 points against someone.

I'm like, nah, I'm not doing that. Nebraska. Nebraska's a 13.5-point favorite. They had a lot of weird games last year. They did Nebraska. Northwestern's not very good. But I haven't done enough on that one quite yet. But I'll tell you week one.

I'll give you some week one lines already because you better buy it. I'm telling you guys right now, if you're listening at 56 minutes in, Utah is under a field goal still on the road in Florida. Take that number before it continues to rise, please. I got it at like plus three when it first came out. It's now at minus two and a half.

Please take it. It's going to rise now at minus two and a half. Please take it. It's going to rise to three and three and a half and four. Utah's going to win that game at Florida. Just take it now, please. And I think Ohio State will kick Notre Dame's ass. So that's like 16, I think. That might climb to near 17 by kickoff. Love it.

There you go. College football. Some news and notes are ready to begin the year very soon talk to you guys in a couple of days have a great weekend everyone

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