Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Pac-12 Predictions and South Division Futures

Episode Date: August 6, 2023

Geoff and Matt are back with their annual tradition of bringing you the best team totals and player props from every team in the NFL, starting this week with the NFC and AFC South. Plus, big news is coming out of the Pac-12 this week... Geoff tells you what to expect.Be sure like, comment, or leave a rating if you enjoyed the show, and follow @geoffschwartz on Twitter (X?) to watch him and Matt live each week leading up to the season.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's tuesday august 1st i'm jeff schwartz this is jeff short to smart and you were live on x on twitter matt we're live on something i'm alongside matt ford and we're starting our annual tradition of previewing all the nfl divisions the team totals the players the props we do this every single season it's our favorite activity in any off season and we're bringing it to you for the first time today we're starting with the South division so the NFC South and the AFC South Matt we look forward to this each and every off season it means football is back and I'm glad to be here doing this with you dude it's this is my favorite thing to do great to see you great to be live here on yes x um whatever we're calling this company at this point um and man what a way

to start we're just gonna hit some texans and saints talk yes get us just to get everybody just percolated for the season to start let's go before we get get going very quickly um there's a Hall of Fame game on Thursday uh-huh and it is the Jets and it is the Browns I don't even have the line for this but I will tell you that when you wager on the preseason guys you wager on coaches you wager on coaches right wager on coaches and you wager on defensive coaches the line by the way is the jets are favored by a point and a half i don't even know it's possible they're not playing any starting quarterbacks maybe zach wilson is better than dtr but the answer is you bet the jets okay guys robert sella four and two in the preseason um and kevin savants he's three and three look at the

look number one matt iberflus just one season, but 3-0. John Harbaugh, not an offensive coach, 70%. Sean McDermott, not an offensive coach, 66% in the preseason covering the spread. Pete Carroll, 61%. Mike Tomlin, 50%. Obviously, you don't want to bet anyone at 50%, but bet on defensive coaches, Matt. Are you in the Hall of Fame game with me? No. Just take the Jets on the money line.

No. Guys, don't bet on the preseason. Why not? I've done it i i'm i'm admitting it i've lost money in the preseason here's the thing it's a long season jeff you're gonna be betting football until february unless you're jeff who can go to hawaii every week and take a vacation every week you can't ever even do a podcast and you have unlimited funds, you can bet the Hall of Fame. If you're like me, a humble producer, you cannot do this. Save your bullets. Just wait.

Just wait. There's so much football to bet on. Just maybe set up an auto deposit or something for the next couple weeks. Don't sweat. It's too early. You were in Maui before I was in Maui. Don't pretend. You were were in now barely i was in maui don't pretend you were in maui before i was in maui okay buddy but don't pretend there that you don't have any money um but something i'm not gonna bet on is the pac-12's existence past the next couple of months

man i mean holy heck we've covered this uh many times now uh as a uh pacto vlog about my home field apparel the new organ shirt on right now uh cover the conference of pac-12 logo. I've got my home field apparel, new Oregon shirt on right now. I cover the conference of Pac-12 radio, so it's something that's near and dear to my heart. Last week, Colorado announced they're leaving the Pac-12 conference. There was a today, there was a meeting with the Pac-12 CEO group, the nine remaining teams, the Pac-9,

where there was a TV deal presented. And the conclusion is, guess what, guys? We're going to have another meeting next week or whenever to talk about it. I felt like this could have been over email, not over an actual meeting. And they're in the same spot they've been in, Matt, which is, hey, we have no TV deal, right? It's been going on for 11 months now. No TV contract for 11 months.

And in a vacuum, that's not a bad thing, okay? Like it doesn't have to happen now. The problem is it has to happen because schools are leaving the Pac-12 conference. Now, Colorado left, obviously. On the face, not the worst thing in the world. The Pac-12 can survive that. The problem is why they left. They left because they're not comfortable and confident.

The Pac-12 has a TV deal in the near future that rivals the Big 12. The Big 12 was $31.6 million in the first year. They're on ESPN and Fox. And so they jump ship. Now, again, they don't have the loyalty to the Pac-12 that Arizona has. They've only been in the conference since 2012. They've actually been the worst football team in the conference in that time. They have no attachment to the Pac-12.

So if Arizona, which is the reported rumor now, leaves to the Big 12, that is where the Pac-12 is in the most trouble because that signals to everyone the tv deal is not good enough and the details not leaking out of this meeting which concluded what's 245 right now ish eastern concluded maybe an hour ago there's no details about what the tv deal even is if it was great matt the tv deal would have been leaked out and so i have a lot of concern that my conference that I love, and they've made a lot of errors in this process, is going down the road of no return when Arizona is going to leave

and go to the Big 12. When that happens, does the Big 10, which really has no desire right now to add Oregon and Washington, do they say, look, man, y'all desperate. We'll give you half a share. It's more than the Pac-12 coming to our conference. So I don't feel great, right? If there was a TV deal to be done, it would have been done already. There's no deal. They presented some numbers. No word about what those numbers are going to be.

And my lasting impression of all of this, Matt, and I know you don't watch as much college football as I do, but does anyone actually like this? Does anyone like conference realignment? Does anyone like the idea of winning an 18-team conference, a 20-team conference? To me, this is not what college football is. I've accepted it's what it is now. But the regionality of college football makes it a lot of fun. That scar tissue you have and those memories you have about playing certain schools each year makes it fun each season to play those schools again. You're starting over with a lot of that with these teams that are moving conferences and I'm disappointed we've gone here I'm sad we've gone here but this is the reality I don't feel great the Pac-12 is

gonna survive this process I thought it might take five or six seven years for this to happen it feels like it's happening right now it feels like the whole sports business I mean there's there's lots of talk about like the streaming part of this deal like the whole sports business is kind of being upended right now from you know things like sports podcasts to things like you know conference tv deals where do you think where do you think oregon ends up in three years yeah um i think the big 10 at some point we're gonna going to have to go to a game in Maryland. We're going to have to go to a Maryland-Oregon game. It's probably easier to get there than it is to Eugene-Oregon.

So the one interesting – two things on streaming in Oregon, right, very quickly. So streaming on its face is not a terrible thing, right? We're seeing the MLS. I think it's all Apple television. We're seeing – I think there's a Friday night baseball game on Apple television. We know the NFL is streaming on Thursday nights. There's a playoff game this year on Peacock. I'm going to have to buy Peacock for a college football game. I want to watch the season between Washington and Michigan State. We're seeing streaming happening. NBA TV might go to all streaming next couple of years. But the issue is not just it's only on streaming. It's the

money, right? If you get a good amount of money, you can live with the idea that your content's on streaming services, right? But when you get a little bit of money, which is at least reported $10 million less per season than the Big 12, and then your inventory can't be seen by as many people because it is streaming. Like I would love on a Saturday to take my remote right here. I'll just pick up a remote I have right here, put on my television right here, and see the Pac-12 game on the guide, right? Right next to the rest of the games in college football. To get Apple television, I don't have a problem with it.

I have it. You got to press a couple buttons. You got to find the station. And then boom, boom, boom, the Pac-12 was on. That's a lot of steps if you're not going to get enough money to make it worth it. That's the problem, right? Is that they're not, if it was like, hey man, we'll give you $50 million a year, come be on Apple television. Great. I'm in, but that's not the way it is. And so that's the issue.

As far as Oregon, Matt, the most fascinating thing about Oregon and Washington to me is that industry insiders, not myself, people that talk to the presidents, talk to TV networks that are in the thick of this, they all say without hesitation, Oregon and Washington will be in the Big Ten at some point. That's like, it's so odd to me. Everyone knows it's going to happen, but they're not doing it now. They don't want to do it now. They might have to if Arizona leaves and things destabilize. Maybe it's 26. Maybe it's in 29 when the when the TV rights deal is up but everyone just keeps saying Oregon and Washington are going to end up in the Big Ten it feels odd to me that's like saying in any sports league yeah that you

know they're going to end up in the you know the the Jaguars are going to the AFC East we know it's happening five years from now it's just it's a done deal everyone you would like to freak out if that was the case like wait wait what but everyone just accepts oregon and washington leaving at some point between now and let's say 2030 and we're just continuing on like nothing's happening it's it's very odd to me it's not great man i mean my my team my college team did this left acc obviously maryland's not quite the football school is Oregon um but it was devastating you know to see your to see your team you know your rivalries go away like the Maryland Duke game is just not a thing anymore like even just I don't know just some of those traditions it's

just what's the point of college sports if it's if it's to make 15 percent more money yeah so that you miss all the traditions it's like you lose your connection with your alumni like there's just a lot of downsides but you know it's a business and it's you know I think the NIL thing has made that more clear but um I'm sorry your school's very quickly have you very quickly have you um have you liked going to Big Ten like have you has it helped Maryland sports I don't I mean, but at what cost? Like they've all, they're sort of,

I think they were in such a financial hole that they kind of had to do it at the time, but I don't think it's made the school. I like, I don't think if you ask most Maryland fans, people in the community that they would be like, this was worth it. It was a business decision.

And yeah, I mean, we're, we're a basketball school you know like like I have a hard time getting fired up for the Iowa game and every you know every January it's just like it's what are we doing um I also just find it fascinating that that the networks felt like adding the washington dc area basically made up for maryland like are there a lot of just diehard maryland fans in the in the metro dc area just gunning for big 10 network right well who are gunning to like watch the purdue games you know what i mean like there are a fair amount of virginia fans and virginia tech fans and you know unc fans boston college fans like it really made sense geographically but i don't know man like rut ruckers doesn't have any fans basically outside of a small area um so i think it made sense on the press release and maryland just needed the football help but i don't know like whole, these mega conference things are so depressing.

It's like even just looking, it's like you look up every year and you're like, wait, like this team is in the big 12 now. Like when did that happen? And that's so alienating for current fans and like sort of friends who don't keep track every week. It's not great. It's a shame to watch. Well, let's talk about some more depressing afc south

um as we go through what we're doing here so for those who are new to the podcast welcome in welcome in um what we do every year is we start doing this this week and go all the way to the start of the season once a week we're going to choose two divisions by region. So today it's the NFC South and AFC South. And we're going to go through win totals and props that we'd like to wager on. We're not here to preview each team. If you want to find in-depth previews, go to your team blogger. We're going to talk about the wagers that we like.

What we did last year is we allocated $10,000 total dollars and $1,000 per division. And then that leaves us obviously some leftover money. We can use that however we see fit. So we want to put extra money on a certain wager. We can do that. And even last year, we ended up saving some of that money and made some in-season wagers, right? Two years ago, we made about $10,000.

Last year, we made $3,400. We're good at this we might not be good at the weekly stuff matt which would have been 500 the last three seasons but the props and and and the um the team totals and all these things we're good at i'm good at big picture type of things matt is fantastic at finding little props i mean the almond raw saint brown one last year was unbelievably good um it just we're we're good at this um and so we've done a good job of preparing this for you we're starting again with uh the nfc i said afc but nfc south here and like we said we're going to go over the basics we'll give you the wagers that we like one thing we're going to go over the basics. We'll give you the wagers that we like. One thing we're going to do, I'm going to tell you right now, and we're going to start this with the NFC South.

We're going to put X amount of money, maybe $50, $100, on every starting running back to go under the rushing total this season. Let's go. Last season I was sent this. I forget who sent it to me. I don't know. I can have it. Like the top 10 rushers from the previous season,

the top 10 passers and the top 10 wide receiving yardage totals. From 21, I think three went over in 2022, right? They all go under. They all go under. And we're going to have a couple overs possibly. I think some receiving stuff we liked last year. We had some overs, especially as Matt had with the Almoner. I said, bro, like some lower numbers for younger players that could pop over. But for the most part, we're getting a lot of unders, okay, for quarterbacks and running

backs especially. So I'll tell you right now, every starting running back, I don't care who it is, if there's a team that has sort of like a rotation, maybe we won't do that because they don't have a number up yet. We're taking the under and we're trying to make money. Okay. This is a way to make money, Matt. This is a little bit of an experiment where we're going to say, all right, we say this every year that we should just put some money down on all these running backs to go under. We're doing it. We could have looked up whether it would be profitable every year. We could have.

We could have Googled it, but we didn't. We're going to actually do it here and do a case study and by the way all these people who are standing for the running back saying they need oh we need to pay the running backs more like okay well if you're right then we're gonna look like two dumb asses more so than usual and if uh if we're right then that's not good for the next next year's uh you know nick chubb zoom call so let's see how it goes i think it's a good experiment um but i think honestly like to not be so much of a troll i do think that the thing that i said in the last time we did a show i think there's going to be a shift towards more of a

committee approach to keep these guys fresh longer i think it's better for everybody and you know even bajan robinson and jameer gib, we'll get to Bajon today. Like, you can't give him the ball 50 times a game. Like, it's not a good way to spend your draft capital. So we'll see, man. I think we'll definitely get to some unders for the running backs. I will call out when we get to. It's not in today's show.

We should have one Amon Ross St. Brown Memorial prop prop every year the one that i'm going to go all in on it's not today um i have a few what what okay do you have a do you have a division yet that you liked is it from a division what division is it i haven't decided what the all-in is yet but there are a few that this i have a few pretty strong takes somehow in these divisions today but they tend to be more of the overarching ones. So why don't we just get started? Do you want to do NFC? By the way, I do have a guy that I think will be on the St. Brown Award.

I haven't found his number yet, but I have someone in mind. But let's continue with the NFC South. There's someone I really like for this year that I can't find from these kind of divisions that I can't find. Which one do you want to start with, NFC? I'm glad you mentioned that. This is why we save ourselves some money because as the season gets closer, more props get posted.

And so we want to save ourselves a little bit of a cushion to be able to go back at the end of these preview shows and add some more wagers to the back end of this. So we're going to NFC South first. New Orleans has a 9.5 win total in Las Vegas. They're favored to make the playoff at minus 188, plus 152 for no playoffs. And I would love to start with the Saints if we're going. We could write these down, of course, as we go.

It's a no playoff at plus 152. I love it. I see it at plus 160 on DraftKings. Let let's book okay let's just put that in right now um so uh i'm gonna be looking at the screen here as i write these in here um it to me like that's fantastic so right away yeah i mean you've got a probably a stronger case to make than me but i'll just say this like how exactly did they get better of course they add derrick carr okay derrick carr of 6 and 11 raiders fame with josh mcdaniels running the offense with josh jacobs having his best year of his career with davante adams best buddy, having an amazing career year, they're going to be better now with him in New Orleans?

I don't see it. I think that their win total is 9.5. I'm not exactly sure what people see this as a 10-win team other than the rest of the division is just such ass. I guess that's the case. But Dennis Allen, we're putting a lot of faith in him. We're putting a lot of faith in Carr. It's a team that just keeps losing guys and has been in cap hell forever. I do not see this as a playoff team at all. I think that this is the ultimate soccer play.

Everyone's just going to sort of say like, well, everyone else stinks. Let's give it to the Saints. And I think it's just kind of a lazy take. I think there is some pretty good value in this division. So I'm with you. I was going to make this Saints. And I think it's just kind of a lazy take. I think there is some pretty good value in this division. So I'm with you. I was going to make this case. I'm glad you did it for me. Yeah, I'm totally in on this. Alvin Kamara's number is not up right now because he is possibly suspended

for the early part of the season as well. So we consider that would have taken him to start a running back project with that right away. But his numbers are not up. There's not a Michael Thomas number. I'd look at a Michael Thomas under for receiving this season. There's other numbers. Again,

this is what we kind of go through this that I think are worth exploring, you know, throughout, throughout the process. Do you want to hit the, the next, the next team here, Matt,

who's up? Let's see next team in order of standings interesting i've seen this number of different a couple different places so atlanta is next um i've seen it at eight and a half i've seen it at seven and a half um i'm very curious drafting has it eight and a half also where are you on the falcons um they've improved a lot this offseason. I'm with people in agreement there, but they're not good at quarterback. Correct. And that's a big part of this, right? Like you have to be good at quarterback, I think,

to improve in a way that you win nine games. Now, I'm not going with their under, which actually is plus 100, because I think they could beat eight or nine wins. But they have a very specific way to win an offense and when you're one-dimensional in the way they are which is basically run the football and again they have good pieces right I like Drake London I like Kyle Pitts their offensive line I think is good but limited some positions um but it's Desmond Ritter right it's what do we expect from Desmond Ritter in year two and i would be comfortable taking his under passing yards which is 25 25.2 um i just don't think he's if he struggles in the slightest they're gonna put taylor heineke in there right like they're

not they don't we're just a third round pick they don't he's not a first round pick guys um or fourth round pick they don't have they don't have an allegiance to him like he's a first round pick no they don't and i think you know to to taylor heineke's credit would that be that bad of a would that be a bad move for them like i atlanta last year went seven and ten in 15 of 17 games last year it was a one score game how crazy is that every single game if i remembered this looking back on their season and they lost they got blown out by the bengals but they had a really tight they every single team they played them tight and last year they had no better quarterback play if possibly worse than this year um they obviously went big at running back we'll talk about him in a second but they have a really just like weird offense like they're gonna have two awesome running backs people forget that tyler algier

averaged five yards a carry last year so you you have him as probably like your power guy and then you've got john robinson obviously matt collins they signed as their number two he's six four drake london he's six four kyle pitts is". They're going to be just like a really weird team to plan for. There's not going to be a lot of other teams that are like them. And their defense last year, middle of the pack, but they really invested in the secondary. They signed Jesse Bates, obviously. They traded for Akuta.

They should be a better team across the board. And you look at their schedule. I think the hardest team that they play all year possibly is minnesota at home they get the they have to play the jets away okay they have to play jacksonville away but like they have a really easy schedule they already were seven and ten all they have to do i somebody has to win this division and so i think it's probably if you're gonna zag from the saints it makes sense that it would be them you're getting them at plus 210. um well I who else is it going to be I mean it's is it the Panthers rookie quarterback a rookie quarterback and rookie coach or it's not a rookie

coach he's not a real first fair enough rookie quarterback but a coach starts slow every single year also so I I think the Falcons are a decent play for the division if you don't like New Orleans. Well, but then I think Ritter would have – by the way, the number I saw on DraftKings actually is 2,600.5. He would probably have to be over for them to win the division, right? I mean, you got to pass the ball a little bit more than that. By the way, if you take his average last season per game,

which was 177 and multiply that by 17 he's well over that 2600 number so they're not even expecting a lot from him in this year in vegas like it's kind of a it's a terribly low number yeah i've i would not be shocked if heineke is is starting for them uh sooner than later but like every every week it seemed like atlanta covered they played every single team tight like if a few things break their way a little bit differently i could see them being like you know like baltimore teams in years past where they're just kind of tough they're just kind of different they hang around they beat up on teams like the bucks and you know the afc south through this

division plays it's odd that these divisions play each other um i don't mind it i don't like it but i don't i don't mind it so what's that what's that number for atlanta i think it's like 210 um i keep losing it but we can we we don't have to agree there we can put it on the list or we can sprinkle on it um but i think that John Robinson is a good candidate for our first rushing under, right? I see that at 1,100 and a half yards. I think we can write that one in in pen. How much?

It's minus 120 and his total is 1,100 yards. 1,100.5. 0.5 or just 1,100? 0.5. Okay. What are the odds at that odds that you said minus 120 on that done so the thing that i would love to take is algiers over i think that i think algier is still going to get a lot of work and they're just going to end up doing a bunch of goofy read option stuff

and a bunch of you know just pound the ball out of the backfield but there's no number for algier i have a feeling like love him in fantasy he was so he was terrific at the end of last season like he kept that team in games they have a really good offensive line that I don't think it's enough love like I I like I'm talking myself into this team I think you're you're I think you're I think you're nuts I think they can win I think they're so one I think there's I think they're so one-dimensional. I think they can win anything. I think they're so one-dimensional, a quarterback and offense. You can't win a division, I think, doing this. Next up on the list is Carolina at 7.5 wins. I like two wagers for the Panthers.

I do think that a plus 400 division winner for the Panthers is something I would consider. I think they're really good on defense. They hired the defensive coordinator from the Broncos, who turned down the head coaching job there to come be with Carolina. They have a lot of talent on defense. And they have a lot of talent on offense. So young offensive line, but a lot of talent there and dude all the reports I have are Bryce Young um from that the locker room are great reports

now the health the health worries me man right the health right staying healthy at that size but they got a pretty good roster man they got a really good roster and if Bryce Young can be that guy I think they have a really good chance to have a successful season where they are the um the winners of the division i don't feel like great about it but that's one that that's who i'd wager on to win the division with with the value there i feel like interesting i very interesting i i think that the way i might want to play this i think for plus 400 or whatever it's definitely worth a sprinkle um mostly as it fades in new orleans but every year frank reich is this notoriously so starter they play at atlanta week one then they play the saints in week

two with a rookie quarterback um then they go seattle minnesota detroit miami that's really really rough so i have a feeling they're gonna start out like two and four. But that isn't that much of a cause for concern in this division. And then their second half after their bye in week seven, they go Houston, Colts, Bears. They play Tennessee who at that point, who knows will be their quarterback. They play Tampa twice after that. So they could sort of turn it around in the middle of the year. And that might be a nice like by the dip after their 2-5 or whatever. I'm with you there.

We could save some money on that. I don't feel great about it. The two wagers I like with the Panthers the most are Miles Sanders under 900.5 yards. That's crazy. They're going to do running back rotation in Carolina. We know they have Miles Sanders, Shuba Hubbard, that were good for them last season.

Miles Sanders has been over this number once in his career. That was last season with the best offensive line in the NFL, with the best quarterback in the NFL that everyone, not best quarterback, but kind of best dual threat quarterback. Everyone's focusing on, you know, Jalen Hurts. Is he running the ball? Is he passing the ball? He's never been this good his entire career never never um and i just you know they ran the ball a lot to they ran the ball a lot at the end of games not going to have that in carolina i'm very comfortable taking

mile sanders under 900.5 he had one year he's played four years he's been a starter basically for four years last year was the only year he went above 900 yards. And it was with the Super Bowl. Super Bowl representative of the NFC and the best rushing attack in the league. It's the only time he played more than 12 games. Yeah. Interesting. What's his touchdown number?

Because that might be a good one. Five and a half, I think I saw. We did that last year and got murdered. I'd rather hit the rushing, saw. We did that last year and got murdered. Six and a half. I'd rather hit the Russian, though. Yeah, that's fine. The other one I like with the Panthers, by the way, is Bryce Young, Offensive Rookie of the Year, plus 500.

Yeah. He's going to play the most of any of these quarterbacks, right? And that's the best opportunity to be Rookie of the Year. That's how I look at it. I mean, if we like them to compete for the division, I think that's a best opportunity to be rookie of the year let's not look at it i mean if we're if we like them to compete for the division i think that's a pretty fair bet um because that also division bet right yeah that also means when the division john robinson also i like the division play i don't i wouldn't like make it our biggest bet um but i yeah i think uh i like i like your angle here i didn't really consider them to be be honest, because I figure the Falcons just are a little more ready somehow.

But yeah, we'll see. I mean, Bryce Young, it's not like he's going to have too hard of a time coming from Alabama in the NFL, but it's going to be a tough start. So we're going to have to hold on to those. It's just health. I think the best wager, as you mentioned, is to take the division at some point later this season yeah let's not do it now yep i'm i'm up for that i would i would

put a little down payment on it just in case but we can uh we can hold i i i don't love it um should we talk about the uh the worst team in this division the bucks i think we lost jeff here so no problem and And I think what we're going to do here is if I'm still up, which I might not be, we can maybe throw to a break screen and then we can just come back when we have Jeff.

Thanks for the patience. Alright, we're back! We're back! This is the fun part about doing shows that rely on reliable internet. Gabe just didn't pay the bill, guys. It's that simple. I think this is somehow Elon's fault, right? It's either Elon's fault or Hank's fault.

But yeah, sorry about that. That was on our end. That's our industrial grade internet. That's our bad. Pumped out someone and drove through elsa gun down just just just stunned the internet for you that must be what it was maybe a maybe it was somebody some airplane flew by i gotta be honest jeff we were we were down for for a minute or two and i was i was vamping like i don't know if you were doing that on your end of it i was just cooking i was

i was giving takes to the people but no one one ever heard it. I tried to fill time. That was a good lesson on how to be talent. I tried to fill time thinking we might be on the air. I just was talking about other stuff. I don't know if it was you or someone else. I just continued to just talk like I was still on the air. Yeah, me too. Sometimes you don't know.

Sometimes if we lose, yeah. I've never done that. I'm usually the person who's like, please just say anything while we fix this. And I've never had to just vamp. And it was sort of like Garth in Wayne's World where I was like shrinking away from the camera saying we're having a good time.

Yeah, I was looking at more Pac-12 news. So just more depression as we go. But what will cure our depression most definitely is talking about the Tampa Bay Bucs. Oh, yeah. The thing about this podcast is that I'm in charge of it, and I could just not talk about a team if we don't want to. Any Bucs wagers? I feel like them to draft Caleb Williams is a good wager,

but there's no money on that one. What's a Bucs wager for you oh man where is it uh shawd white worst record uh what's what's we hit that last year with the bears right remember we did um man i lost it where did i put that worst record nfl odds there at plus 950 which is third worst. The way that this season could play out, because of all of the things that can go wrong for a team, obviously losing Tom Brady is up there. Their schedule, Jeff. First of all, they have a week five by. They start at Minnesota.

They have Philly in there. Then they have the Saints. Then they have the week five by. Later in the season, they play at Buffalo, at have the week five by later in the season they play at buffalo at san francisco at atlanta at green bay like they they have a really really rough schedule what i could see happening what is it's plus 950 um i mean look they every they're not favored in any game um at this point they have you know their strengths on their team you know some parts of their offensive line but a lot of those guys are older couldn't

you see like midway through the season they're like hey we're owing for it the buy yeah levante david and devin white are both free agents this year let's trade them like they have some assets just get rid of them like i just don't see this team even trying to compete uh it's time to tear down like I you know Mike Evans like that's a guy they could maybe get some value for in a trade so I would not be shocked if this is a total teardown job by the end of the year I'm with you let's put it up I want to find a bacon mayfoot under prop they don't have them up right now um I yeah they're to be playing Kyle Trask half the season. Love it. Plus, plus nine 50 and 50. And then also Rashad white under seven, uh, 700.5 rushing yards. I would just call it.

That guy he's, they were the 32nd rushing attack in the league last year and lost their best running back. Don't love his chances. I do there. I did see one Jeff. And especially if he goes to another team mike evans to have 200 receiving yards in one game just any game is plus 1200 oh man i kind of liked he had one last year and mike evans has this very weird streak i think he has the second longest streak of consecutive

years over a thousand yards his whole career i think yeah his whole career every year he's had that and it i gotta say like from people who i have worked with who know things it's very important to tampa that he keeps these thousand yard streaks like there was a year i think it was 20 or 21 where maybe it was even earlier it was had 1,006 yards. Yeah. Well, in 2017, this I think was the year that I knew about it. Oh, 101. 1,001.

It's like they really care about getting him the ball. So if he's still on the roster and it's like week 16 and he's at 789, they're going to feed him the rock. So I think that's a pretty fun one for plus 1,200, don't you? Yeah. You could put that in there. Yeah. Maybe like five to win. I don't think people realize.

Win 6,000. It's pretty good. Mike Evans is going to be a Hall of Famer. Yeah. His 45th in all-time receiving yards, and he can still play seven more seasons. He'll be at 17,000 receiving yards in seven seasons if play seven more seasons he'll be at 17 000 receiving yards in seven seasons if he keeps his pace up wow that's ridiculous that will put him 17 000 yards

will put him second or third all time man that's really incredible you don't realize that yeah it's It's totally true. I think he has also receiving touchdowns, all touchdowns. Let's see here. Both Googling things. I know. I'm trying to pull up stats right now. It's hard to find. He has 82 touchdowns in his career. That's 62nd all-time enough of history.

I mean, if you get up to to 100 you're in the top 25 for any player not just wide receiver do we want to take his over 925 and a half for plus 115 we could do that yeah i would put that i would put that down how much plus uh let's see it's plus 125 and a half and it's over 925 and a half that's kind of tasty yeah they're gonna care about that it's again that's not a bet the house what minus 110 you said no plus uh plus 115 oh oh yeah let's do that yeah so it seems tasty right we've written down a lot of wagers so far for this division we're all in on the box so we have So we have St. Snow playoffs to plus 160. Ritter under 2,605 passing yards.

Bijon under 1,105 rushing yards. Bryce Young, offensive rookie of the year. Miles Sanders and Rashad White under. Tampa worst record and Mike Evans over. Are we keeping all of these? I like them all. And I think what we should do is we should figure out the math off the air. That was the part that always put my head in a pretzel.

We can figure this out, but we're spending about what? $2,500 an episode. That's a, that's approximately what we're doing, right? Cause we're doing. Yeah.

About. Yeah. But what are we getting? I mean like, okay. So which one, which one? one okay are we gonna set a number for just the running back unders yeah i think we should just have a standard

unit on that unless we feel really strongly like i feel pretty standard unit for us last year we could just do a hundred on all those yeah i think how we did it was we had a certain amount that we had left over for like a bonus pool so we had if we did 10 000 we had like 2 000 of extra dollars but our our standard was we were doing like a thousand dollars a division right so we're gonna yeah yeah so we're gonna skip the math on this and not bother you with all those but those are those are our wagers for um what we're doing uh in NFC South. Again, approximately, what, $125 a wager is basically what we're doing. Yeah, roughly. And a little less for something like Tampa Worst Record.

But if that were us, I could make some mistakes. Young Rookie of the Year will be $100. Worst Record will be $50, something like that. The other ones, we'll try to – But again, we're going to try to get $1,000 out of this. We can throw this off, again, off air. Which is your favorite one of all these? Buck's Worst Record. But again, we're going to get $1,000 out of this. We can throw this off again off air. Or if there's one, which is your favorite one of all these?

Buck's worst record. I think that has a very realistic chance of hitting anything that plus 950 that I think is a pretty good bet. I like, I think Saints no playoffs is a really good play. I like, I like Sanders under 900.5 rushing. Yeah, I like that too. I feel really good about all these. Like we can maybe cut one of them, but I feel really good um i'm good with it let's uh south now yeah let's do it man all right so the oh boy maybe the least fun division to talk about

but i gotta say the team at the top of it is a pretty fun team to discuss and that's jacksonville uh their win total is at nine and a half uh It's heavily juiced. That's around minus 150. I think there's a lot of ways to bet this team. What do you think about Jacksonville this year? We have a do we have can we get a 10? Is there one to get it over 10? I'm sure we could find an ultra total. Look who they hear the quarterbacks.

They play this year. You're ready guys. They play. Let's are the quarterbacks they play this year. You ready, guys? No, baby. Let's go. Whatever the Colts have, okay, twice. Kansas City, they're not going to beat Kansas City. Maybe they will, but probably not. September, Chiefs don't lose a lot of early games. Whoever's quarterbacking in Houston, twice a season.

Desmond Ritter, Josh Allen, okay, good. Derek Carr. Kenny Pickett. Whoever the Niners are playing. Twice, two Tennessees. And then they have Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, and Lamar Jackson. And obviously, excuse me, and Bryce Young. Like, they're playing four quarterbacks. Josh Allen.

Excuse me. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, three that we'd be like, dang, a lead level. Lamar, probably four. Four guys. Then throw in Deshaun Watson and Bryce Young. That's it. Yeah. I'm way over their win total.

Yeah, so you can get over 10.5 for plus 125. We can get over 11.5 half for plus 125 we can get over 11 and a half for plus 220. you can't get a lot you can't get 10 you just can't get 10. maybe you can i i let me make a few a few ways to play this um well maybe you look that up so i think that i think there's a chance that tre Lawrence makes that leap this year into the next tier of guys where we're talking about the four best guys in the league, Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Lawrence.

I think it's very in play. Everything that people say about Justin Herbert is true of Trevor Lawrence already. It's like they have the same, they have the same sort of level of skill, but Lawrence has done more with less throughout his at least last year obviously the first year didn't go great um and i think you know calvin ridley everybody's getting fired up from training camp videos myself included i'm guilty of it either way he turned evan ingram's career around christian kirk went from this like oh yeah he's kind of good to like oh he's actually kind of worth the money that they spent on him career high in receptions and yards last year I think there's

a couple of ways to get some value on this Jaguars team that isn't just the number over the first is you can take Trevor Lawrence over 4,000 passing yards at minus 120 which seems like kind of a weird number for me to pick but Matthew Stafford is minus 150 to get that number. Like this is a very good 4,000. Yeah. 4,000 yards, which he beat last year, obviously without Calvin Ridley and with what number bad start of the

season, minus one 20. I'd go big on that. You could minus or to get over 5,000 is a bit more, but there was only one quarterback to do that last year. And that was my home. So I don't think, I think that that's probably a stay away and they also might be so far ahead in this division that they don't play him all year but 4 000 seems pretty achievable um i think i actually personally bet him as mvp at like 18 or 19 to 1 he's now at 1500 which like i don't think

is great value anymore we kind of missed it but if it's not mahomes like it's it could be him i know that sounds crazy but joe burrows already hurt you know there's it could be jalen hurts it could be you know it could be josh allen i think it's worth it i think it's worth a sprinkle with that number like 50 bucks yeah i i mean this guy we've last year they started so slow and then they absolutely stormed their way back they came back from 27 points down in a playoff game like this guy's got it like he just does i agree i think this goes back to the this is going to sound a little bit dumb i think but that's not the first dumb thing i've said on this show maybe even in this paragraph but in the quarterback show the thing that i really wanted to take out of that was the confidence

thing trevor lawrence has always been that guy right like kirk cousins was not always that guy trevor lawrence was the number one quarterback in high school he was the number one quarterback in college he was the number one pick in the draft like this guy, his center of gravity goes. He's a winner. That's just what happens. His predisposition is to win stuff. So I think they're a great bet to win the division. I like him in MVP.

I think Doug Peterson at coach of the year at plus 2200 is an interesting way to play this if they really get on a hot streak. So I think that they could have a really really strong season but i'm a little worried that i'm like too far in on this team um and by the way we have etn under russia at 900.5 to include as well so so far for jacksonville we have jacksonville over nine and a half trevor lawrence over 4 000.5 receiving yards, I should say. Travis Etienne, under 900.5. Lawrence MVP and Peterson Coach of the Year. I mean, it's a very Jags-heavy list. Yeah, but the rest of the division sucks.

We're not going to bet on any of these other teams. No, we aren't. I also really like the running back that they picked later, this Tank Bigsby guy who they picked on the third rounds. I think he's going to end up getting a ton of the goal line work, even though Etienne is Lawrence's guy from college.

I think I like... I can't find any numbers for him, but I do like what... I don't dislike it. I'm good with all these, man. I've told you, we did this last year. You got to trust Matt. When Matt feels like he's on a heater, man, got to trust him, man. You have to do it. with all these men like oh i've told you we we did this last year you gotta trust matt when matt when matt feels like he's on a heater man gotta trust him man you have to do it this guy i i don't know i mean were you as in on this team before me or or i'm so i was i was i was square no i was who

cares um i was in on them with you beforehand you kind of convinced me a little bit more to put more on them. Remember, last year you had the Almoner on St. Brown. You had the Damien Pierce, which you should have cashed last year. Remember, that was a brutal one. That was brutal. I'm fine with these because I do buy – I think schedule is very important. They play a very easy schedule. And two of these bets are $50 wages, right?

Lawrence MVP and Peterson. They could put $25 in Peterson Coach of the year for all I care. Like that, that feels like a good place to be because guess what? The next three teams, there are two wages. I like in the next three teams. All right, let's hear it. By the way, did we want to do plus one 45 for over 10 and a half? Did we put that one in there?

You want to do over 10.5, you think? Maybe. Let's put it on the list. Let's keep going on these. Plus what? What did you say? 145. Pretty good.

Tennessee's up next. Seven and a half wins. I mean, Ryan Tannehill, his number I see is 30. I'm going to pull up a maybe a better number as well, but it's just over 3,000 passing yards. He's not getting that this season. Like he is going A to get broken in half at some point by his offensive line because the offensive line in Houston, as you mean Tennessee, is bad.

Like they're not good at all. And he is older. He is less mobile. And they're not good at all and he is older he is less mobile um and they're not even playable season they might go to malik wills at some point this year like i i am all for um excuse me will levis i'm sorry will levis this season if things go bad man i am i am all for taniel under this number i think that's a good call uh i think any under for him, I'm in on. I'm very reluctant to count this Tennessee team out based on how many times I've bet against them and been wrong.

Their offense is bad, man. Their offensive line is worse than the NFL right now. It's a bad situation. Bad quarterback, bad offensive line, bad receivers outside of Hopkins. And then there's henry who is defying the laws of the nfl at this point with just continuing to to matter his his number is uh what 1100 some yards 11 75 and a half that is a lot of yards we have to do that we forgot about that we have to go under on him there's i mean mean, that would be astonishing if he's able to hold up for another full season.

I could also see them, if things are going poorly, trading Henry. I could see somebody offering a decent pick for him specifically later in the season, just like at the McCaffrey deal. He's not just Dalvin Cook. He's even more special. But yeah, I think the only thing I thought of was like it could this could be the hedge for Jacksonville if we're like if I talked you into them too much they're plus 350 to win the division I don't think there's a chance in hell that the other teams could

win no but they're the only other team like if someone were to happen to Lawrence for instance that I think could even have a chance yeah but I'm wagering quarterback injuries I think is a wrong way to wager because it doesn't happen very often yeah um no i agree it's it's the running backs right like that that's it's those are the ones that get hurt unfortunately yeah quarterbacks is not it's not really the way that that works um see about about about quarterback um is anthony richardson for the Colts. I can't find his rushing number, but I am gladly taking his under for passing at 2,700. The Colts have openly said, like, yeah, man, we don't really care what he does passing this season

as long as he just gets better throughout the season. And if he goes 10 for 27, but ends up with 105 rushing yards per game, we're fine with that. It's just going to take time to grow into this. But, dude, we're just not going to throw for a lot of yards this season. No. It's interesting.

That's a nice way to play this. I'm very interested in the under six and a half win total here and possibly another Dart throw on them to have the worst record uh plus 1500 so the Colts last year um obviously had a bit of a quarterback transition throughout the season let me just make sure I get their record right last year they were four and twelve and one last year their win total this year is six and a half last year anthony richardson went under six and a half in the sec like this is not a team that's gonna get way better all of a sudden with a rookie quarterback a rookie head coach a first-time offensive coordinator shout out jim bob cooter

the co team cooter we're back um they also have a pretty they for all these teams in the division like they do have kind of a tricky schedule like they go to new england uh they end in the season you know pittsburgh cincinnati like they it could get kind of ugly at the end of the season yeah um i think with four wins last year are they better are they really going to get to are they going to get to five are they going to get to six like i i don't see it i don't feel as comfortable with this one because i feel like their division man if they get four wins in their division they could get over this number right i guess but then where else where find me find me seven wins on this schedule like who are they anthony rich does anthony richardson do enough with his legs to

win one or two games who i'm like honestly it's is it tampa tampa tampa okay atlanta vegas you know it's not great yeah i think i i mean i don't know I agree the schedule you're right they're going to be a favorite in I think in two games I think when they host Tampa Bay after a bye and they host Las Vegas

yeah that looks like maybe Houston week 18 maybe maybe yeah home against Houston in week 18, maybe. Home against Houston, maybe? Yeah, home against Houston in week 18. Yep. With another rookie quarterback.

I mean. That's a good point. I think you have to. Yeah. Six and a half. Like when we look at the set, the thing is, I was looking at the teams last year that went seven and 10. Like these are some teams that went seven and 10.

The Jets, the Panthers, the Titans, the Falcons, the Panthers, the saints, the Browns. They were all kind of, they're all pretty good. Like those seven and 10, we feel like that's bad, but like they're all, they all were a game out of the pretty much. I don't think I like it. I like it. It's a good call. Um, any, any else you like with Indianapolis? No, I think, think i i think that them plus 1500 worst record is kind of a fun one uh you know if they if they go if they go under six and a half they could go to three wins like that's that's not crazy um i also feel like go ahead i mean we we already took that wager for taba bay right yeah but, but I think we're getting good value. I mean, the Cardinals are the runaway favorite,

and we're still getting... What's Colts' worst record at? Plus 1,500. I think Richardson might have one game where they win with his legs that they're not supposed to, and that gets them... This wager doesn't cash. So you're saying like Justin Fields last year, who won some

games by himself and then the bears had the worst record so yeah i think the culture better have better talent but yeah and the bears what if what if jonathan taylor doesn't play for them like that's very in play also if jonathan taylor doesn't play for them what is this offense yeah well if you just choose between colts worst record or under six and a half wins what would you take? I don't think we need to do either. I don't think we need to eliminate one. I think the under 6.5 is

a lock, and then if we feel like gambling, let's throw a dark 1500. Why not? We have way more wagers than we did last year. Yeah, we can go smaller units, maybe. Because we're doing all the unders, that's why. Yeah, well, that's right.

A thing I wanted to mention about Richardson. Not only did he go under 6.5 in the SEC, rookie quarterbacks since 2012 have won 36% of their games. If you think about the RG3s, the Brock Purdy's, there are some guys who did pretty well, but, the Brock Purdy's, like there are some guys who did pretty well, but at the end of the day, like Trevor Lawrence, like obviously Peyton Manning's the famous example. Troy Eggman's a famous example.

Like a lot of quarterbacks tend to start really slowly. Um, especially on teams with, I think I can say it now. I think we can say the worst owner in the NFL. Like there's going to be some weird stuff that happens this year. Shout out, shout out Dan Snyder getting out of the way. I know. Right. You boss or say,

um, so yeah, so I think I, I don't know. There's a lot of time for the Colts. We definitely don't need to spend this much time on Houston. I don't even think I have one single note written about the Texans. Yeah.

So I'm glad you mentioned the Houston. Um, I, uh, I have nothing on Houston. Um, I try to find CJ Stroud number, could find it. Maybe Damian Pierce under just to stick with our theme, but. I think we have to.

We have to, right? I think just, I think to do this experiment, we have to just keep hitting the unders on everybody that we can find a number for. That's a starter. His is in the 900 range. It's not as bad um i actually you know what's funny i i was gonna make a case for them and just say like i was probably gonna like their number a little like they added their secondary they have some guys on offense now and like i like ryan's i just feel like they kind of turn the page but but they're number six and a half. Like, even if you're a little bullish on them,

like they're winning seven games, that feels way too high. But I mean, they won seven games the last two years combined. I don't see it, but I don't know. It doesn't feel like I'm slamming the table for the Texans under. So Damian Pierce under 900 yards, minus 115. So the South right now we have, who would have thought? We have Jacksonville over 10.5 wins. We juiced that up one win, right?

So you have to win 11 games. Trevor Lawrence over 4,000.5 passing yards. Love. ETN under rushing 900.5. Have to. Lawrence MVP. Peterson Coach of the Year. Again, those are plus $1,500, plus $2,200. Very small.

$50 wagers, like small wagers. Yep. Derrick Henry under-rushing. Ryan Tannehill under-passing. Love. Richardson under-passing. Colts under-wins. Colts worst record sprinkle and Pierce under 900.5.

Yeah. I promise you we'll get to overs at some point in this. Jacksonville. Most likely. You'd like Trevor Lawrence. Yes, that's fair enough. But we're trying to make money, man, and unders is the way to go. Like Mike Evans.

We like his over. We're not going to finish. We're not doing the numbers on air, right? We're going to put this together. Maybe we can tweet out what our official, I can tweet underneath this what our actual money amount for this is. I love that.

I love that. And we could even thread it out. Maybe we can do the next one live on threads. I haven't been on threads in like a week. I have no idea what's happening there. But I am on X. It's so dumb. Like think about something that was more perfect in our world than sending a tweet.

Like a verb. You're tweeting. It's perfect. It was great. No one had a problem with it. No one was like, you know what? What we got to do is we have to change the name of Twitter. Yeah, right.

It's like, hey, I'm Xerox. You know what we need? We need to change our name of twitter yeah right it's like hey i'm hey i'm xerox you know what we need we need to change our name to uh v because people are getting too used to saying i'm just going to go xerox this like kleenex i'm just going to change my name to w like fucking idiot what are we doing um i think matt and i share a love of sending each other tweets about Twitter and politics. By the way, that North Carolina thing fires me up so much, and I really wish that I was able to talk about it more. There's not really a platform for this, but that's a crime. That should be a crime. It's in my city.

It's your show, buddy. It's in Charlotte. That should not a crime. It's in my city. It's your show. It's in Charlotte. Shouldn't that's that should not be allowed. I run as one platform, get elected by 20% and then switch the other side. Five months later, it seems pretty crazy. I mean, the question is why? Like what happens? Like, oh, I sent you the article, didn't I? I'll send you the article if you want.

Yeah. Um, the guy who helps Clarence thomas out maybe that's as we say yeah as we say uh on the radio show that i do if there is another topic that we don't want we want to touch very briefly like this and like switch into we say there's a channel for that the channel for that somewhere else not my podcast uh but nonetheless matt and i send each other a lot of text messages a lot of fun um All right. We're off and running. Hank, if you want to be included in those text threads, you let me know, buddy.

No. But we're back. No, Matt just says no. We're back. We're rolling. Football starts this week. Remember, Jets to win. To win, just straight up.

Win and cover. Don't do it. It's a Hall of Fame game. Save your money. We'll be back next week with more of these division previews. Also, I don't know when I'm going to do this. What? I'm telling the people they work hard for

their money. They shouldn't bet it on the Hall of Fame game. We're going to do college too, by the way. I'm going to throw in colleges. Matt just got to be quiet for a few minutes. I'll throw in some college win totals throughout the process. Maybe next week I'll give you a couple as we move forward. Enjoyed today even though the little technical difficulties, we're back and running back full time. Got a lot of fun things happening for you guys. Thank you for listening. Enjoy your

week. Hopefully you make some wagers. Talk to you later, everybody. Bye.