Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Players Skipping Bowl Games and The Best Bets for NFL Week 14

Episode Date: December 9, 2021

Geoff is joined by Matt to discuss the news that Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux will skip the Alamo Bowl to prepare for the draft. Both agree that it’s fine for KT to prioritize his future over an exhibition game… but should QBs like Kenny Pickett be held to a higher standard?Then Geoff and Matt talk through every game on the slate for NFL Week 14 to give you their five best bets. As  always, they highlight some games that they are definitely betting on (Niners vs. Bengals, Packers vs. Bears) and some games they are staying away from (Titans vs. Jaguars, Detroit vs. Denver).Remember to rate the episode if you’ve enjoyed, and leave a comment to be featured in a listener mailbag segment at the end of the season. What bowl games do you want to hear Geoff and Matt make picks on? Would you get Mayo poured on you for $10,000 to your favorite charity? Leave a comment to weigh in!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday december 9th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz is smart you're powered by the varsity podcast network it is our gambling and wagering preview for the weekend college football is essentially over there is one more game this weekend then we get into a whole batch of ballgames we have some college football news to talk about first and then we'll do our nfl picks that have been uh not so good this year. But we'll hoping we still have four weeks left to turn this around. Five now, right? There's an extra week now. So plenty of time left to turn this around.

We remember, guys, last year we hustled to finish above 500. That's right. We have to do that again, Matt. How are you, buddy? I'm good. Just like Ron Rivera. We gain steam later in the year until we're inevitable despite how ugly it is. That's what we're going to do. Yes. So

we will talk about the Washington football team. I believe that as a wager, both of us are eyeing this weekend. And well, Washington football fans just living on the edge each and every week. All right. As we head to bowl season, we're starting to get news now and really the only

news at the moment, besides the coaching search stuff, which we covered a lot of monday hasn't been much movement since then oregon's looking for a coach and we'll find out who we get and if we do get someone next couple of days maybe we'll hop on for emergency podcast but right now as we approach bowl season there's a lot of great games by the way we'll preview a lot of them as we get going here um but we're seeing players start to sit out, right? Kayvon Thibodeau, Oregon's stud defensive end. And it's funny that the tweet by Schefter said he left because the coach, he's not playing because the coach left. No, he's just not playing because why would you play the game?

That doesn't matter. However, though, we have a quarterback most likely sitting out of a New Year's Six Bowl. Pittsburgh's quarterback, Kenny Pickett, is possibly and most likely sitting out of a New Year's Six Bowl. Pittsburgh's quarterback, Kenny Pickett, is possibly most likely sitting out of their New Year's Six Bowl against Michigan State. That's a first. I'm not sure we've seen a quarterback sit out an important bowl game. They won the ACC conference.

Matt, does this bother you when players sit out? Of course not. There's only one side of this, I think. It's if you stand to gain from playing in the ball game you do it and if you don't you shouldn't and for someone like kenny pickett or cave on to bedo like what what is there to gain like they could obviously like put aside the obvious possibility of injury which like of course that's something that should be considered but they have to treat

this like a business like if you look at how the how colleges are treating college football you know fired coaches are making almost what half a billion dollars this year like everyone treats this like a business and then expects the players to do things like out of love or what's best for the school or something like that they They can't think like that. I think that anyone who says something about a player sitting out a bowl game should put themselves in the player's shoes and say, what would I do? Because I'm guessing you would probably sit out.

To me, I just don't see another take on it. But I'm curious what you as a former player and fan of a team in a bowl, how you read it. Well, I'm a fan of a team in a bowl, how you read it. Well, I'm a fan of a team in a bowl game with two interim coaches, right? Bob Stoops and, and Oregon's wide receiver coach got the job for this weekend. I mean,

what, what a weird bowl game for, for both those teams to be in when the college ball playoff and really the, the BCS system started, it started to slowly devalue bowl games, right? I love bowl games. I, when I was playing, it was to slowly devalue bowl games, right? I love bowl games. When I was playing, it was awesome.

I liked it. We went to the Holiday Bowl, the Vegas Bowl, and the Sun Bowl. You know, the Rose Bowl was looked at as a gold standard. I think it still is, but it's not for the title this year, right? Ohio State, Utah playing that game. Does Ohio State care to play in a Rose Bowl, which is shocking to say, but they thought they were going to be a playoff team, right? And so with the devaluation of bowls, because now unless you make a playoff,

your basic season is a waste, which I think is the wrong attitude to have. But that's the way a lot of people view this. And these players are looking at the next steps. I am perfectly okay with any players sitting out. It does not hurt them. We saw last year, how many players get drafted in the first round that sat out of the entire 2020 season? Seven, eight of these guys?

A ton. They put in a film. These are exhibition games, right? You have played your regular season. In my opinion, you have fulfilled your requirements for your team. And now you are missing exhibition game. If you're Oregon, you're playing every young player. There's no point to playing any older players

other than maybe to send them off if they want to play. If you're Kenny picking out, Kenny picking out is interesting because he got them to this point. I'm surprised he is sitting out of a big bowl game when Pittsburgh has not been in this spot his entire career there. But I get it. An injury costs him millions of dollars.

He's put in his work and is ready for the NFL. It's also worth pointing out, Matt, that this does not bother players. Players, this does not bother players. Players, this does not bother players. Players are rooting for their teammates to get paid, to go as high in the draft as they can. And it does not bother.

Now, again, the Pickett thing is interesting because he's taking on a big bull. But again, I don't think his teammates will care. They'll look at it as a way to play a backup. They'll prepare the same exact way. And they'll be happy when Kenny a way to get to play a backup the prepare is the same exact way and they'll be happy when kenny pickett's drafted as the first quarterback taken in the draft i don't think it's clearly number one but i i really have no issue with this and if you do you gotta ask yourself why right why why do you care if it's the national championship that's one

thing if it's the peach bowl like i think you really have to imagine what it would be like if Kenny Pickett got injured. And look, think about it. Jamar Chase sat out an entire season, gets picked, what, I think in the top five off the top of my head. Yeah, you got five. Penny Sewell, Sean Slater. Yeah, Slater. Those are at least two of the top five Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates right there. I mean, there's something to be said.

There was the test. It was COVID. And Jamar Chase could have played. He probably would have had a worse season. He could have gotten injured. And by the way, it doesn't need to be a career-ending injury. You just don't train for a couple months and things can set you back. So look, I just think that you can't ever fault a player for doing this

and the coaches by the way are suddenly if you're going to get mad get mad at the coaches like the coaches are setting the example here of treating these jobs like they're just you know total commodities like it's it's it's just not fair to expect something different they're bouncing as soon as they can which again don't care about um uh but that's. But that's what we are. It's where we are now. I believe, Matt, are you excited about Maryland and Virginia Tech? Are you going to go to this game? It's in the Bronx.

Man. The Yankee Stadium. No, I will probably not attend. Why not? The Bronx is a little too far upstate for me. It's like, no. Maybe. I don't know.

It's Wednesday in the middle of the day, 2.15 p.m. on a Wednesday. Yeah, I mean, we record this in the middle of the day Wednesday, so you tell me. No, I think these bowls are so silly. It's just like, what are we doing? I'll let you skip this bowl game if you go put on a full Maryland garb and go to the Bronx and watch your team play in a baseball stadium. Hey, don't threaten me with a good time, Jeffrey. You're all the way on Maryland basketball already.

You have passed. I mean, don't even talk to me about Maryland basketball. We're talking about a shit show. It's not good? They fired their coach in the second week of the season. Y'all and Hank were talking all this all this crap about how good maryland was gonna be this year yeah well that's what we thought uh some and yeah they had uh they had different plans for how this basketball season's gonna go

um we actually had a discussion today about whether we should put college basketball picks in this show that's how late in the season we're getting all of a sudden it's like oh my god when did that happen the problem with doing that is you listen to the podcast at many different times throughout the week right game might have already passed also i am not sure anyone's coming to this podcast to hear me talk about um let's see we can find today uh the games today it's december 8th okay what does anyone does anyone come to hear my UConn, West Virginia angle on who to gamble with tonight? What's your favorite by a point and a half?

If you do, please let me know. At Jeff Schwartz. I would love to hear your thoughts on whether or not. I'll start handicapping the crap out of these basketball games if you guys want some tomorrow. Purdue Rutgers. I mean, they're not even lines out yet for these games, right? Oh, my God.

That's going to be like 30. Gonzaga is hosting Merrimack. Man. Merrimack. Why don't we move to the thing that we claim to know something about, which is the NFL. Should we do that? I'm trying to delay just because our record is 28 and 37.

But let's do it, Matt. Let's pull the bandit off. Let's-37. But let's do it, Matt. Let's pull the bandit off. Let's get after it. Let's do it, man. The listeners need us. We are going to start with the Thursday game this week, which I have been spending a lot of time trying to wrap my head around. It's Pittsburgh at Minnesota.

The line that we are looking at, sorry, I lost my run down. It's Vikings by three at the time we're recording this. Lion came down after the Vikings lost a hideous game to the Lions. Do you have a side? I think I'll take the Steelers here. If you look at the way

they're able to generate pressure and the Vikings issue with stopping teams from generating pressure, you look at vice versa. The Vikings defense can't stopping teams from generating pressure. You look at vice versa. The Vikings' defense can't really pressure the quarterback. Ben is terrible when pressured. Not half bad when not pressured.

I would lean in this matchup kind of where you look at the trenches, which I do first. Big lean to Steelers. Cousins has no feeling. No Dalvin Cook. But I don't feel great about it, but I would definitely take Pittsburgh. And remember, Tom is underdog.

Very good. Five and two this season. 11 and four in his last 15 as a dog against the spread. He's good in these, you know, everyone counts us out spots, which is why we took them last week as well. But I don't feel great about it. I think there's other ones on here, but where would you go? It's interesting. I was leaning towards a pass, but I'm't feel great about it. I think there's other ones on here, but where would you go? It's interesting.

I was leaning towards a pass, but I'm with you. Vikings are one and nine in their last 10 games as a favorite against the spread. That was the next thing out of my mouth. Yeah, Kirk Cousins as a favorite is not a good spot.

You mentioned Tomlin historically. The thing that I think really matters this season, the Steelers are six and two with TJ Watt in the lineup and oh three and1 without him. He played last week and saved the game. I mean, he had such important plays down the stretch.

He affected that two-point conversion. That was ultimately what decided the game. So him being back is big. I mean, we missed the number here. It was 3-1⁄2. It might actually still be 3-1⁄2. I bet we could find one somewhere. It was 3.5.

It might actually still be 3.5. I bet we could find one somewhere. But, yeah, the Steelers would be the side if we were picking it. I see minus 3 at minus 120, though. There's a minus 3.5 at plus 100, I see. Points bet plus 3.5. Yeah, let's put it as a maybe. That wasn't one I was really thinking about, but I'll call it.

I just don't want to play those Thursday game. Cause you need to start off on a bad foot or good foot. And most times it's a bad foot. Hey, sometimes it's nice to know early if you're going to have a shit week. Yeah. Moving to Sunday. Oh,

let's just start with, with, with my boys, the Washington football team hosting Dallas Washington plus three and a half. I really tried to look at this critically Jeff. So I, I'm prepared to have a sober conversation about it. The play is Washington plus three and a half. I really tried to look at this critically, Jeff. So I'm prepared to have a sober conversation about it. The play is Washington plus three and a half.

Of course. Yeah. But it's not even a question of what we do here. Outside, cold weather. Cowboys have been up and down the last month. They're much healthier. But there's something about Washington right now, man. They're just playing better football.

And they did kind of squeak by last week. I get that, but they're on the road after a big emotional win against Seattle on Monday Night Football. I would imagine the money, I'm going to check right here, a lot of money on Dallas. It feels like Washington at home is totally a play here. What's your idea? Yeah. I really wanted to come into this and find a reason to pick Dallas just because obviously my heart is on Washington.

I really wanted to check it. But the thing is, Dallas really is inflated. Their wins this season, Philly, Giants, Carolina, New England in the last time New England lost, Minnesota, who stinks, Atlanta, and the Saints in that game where Taysom just gifted them the game. That would have been a close game if Taysom didn't keep throwing picks at the end of it.

It was a 10-point game. Yeah, but there was pick six at the end, right? It was just like a mess. You and I texted earlier in the year about Brandon Sheriff and how he's going to get this big extension. I thought he was kind of overrated. But when he plays, Washington wins. It's just a thing that happens.

They're 6-2 with him this season and didn't win a game without him. But the other thing that's really important here, you mentioned the outside. Last seven games for Dallas, the under has hit six times. For Washington, it's hit five of the last six. And the under in the last 10 games at FedEx Field is seven. It's seven unders have hit, three overs

have hit. So it's going to be a low scoring game. Yeah, the under is a good play. It's a divisional game. I don't think like the way that I would get worried about this is if Dallas blew them out, which their offense sort of wakes up. But I don't think that's going to happen. So a close game with the division with that three and a half,

I just feel like you have to take it. I'm with you, man. I'm totally in here. You kind of have to throw out some of these numbers that Washington just kind of put up early in the season, especially with their efficiency. Just look at what they're doing now. Their defense has played much better. They've almost had like a Chase Young-Ewing theory, right?

They're playing better without Chase Young. The pass coverage has been a lot more improved, a lot more improved, a lot improved. And there's something just about the Cowboys that, again, they won an ugly game against New Orleans, but it just kind of worries me what trajectory they're on right now. Yeah, and Tony Gibson also got right leading Russia in the NFC, which is kind of bizarre.

Him being right has changed the look of their offense. You good? I'm good. Let's move on to a game we're probably not talking about. Jags at Titans, minus eight and a half for Tennessee. I see no value here. Yeah, Tennessee off a bye. Jacksonville, their own five on the road this season straight up uh times are four and one gets spread the last five after

by week but eight and a half is a ton of points this to me screams like a huge stay away yep it's probably tennessee but like i'm i'm sorry i'm just not playing it without derrick henry no no no chance uh god seahawks the texans another stinker i look jeff we can't we're every week i come in here and i'm like we got to take houston right but i asked hank to look we're one in four when we're picking houston this is another juicy spot but like i just don't know if i could do it anymore isn't the answer to take the seahawks here no davis mills oh seattle davis i mean i'm not saying we take seattle but davis mills is starting seven and a half i don't think so man no we're not taking the hook there but like this is for sure maybe no no it's not we're not taking this that's the sea the thing we should have remembered last week.

Seattle does do well against San Francisco. That was a kitchen sink game. They had a fake punt touchdown. Like that was a miracle game. Like I don't see them losing Jamal Adams and all of a sudden like winning by over a touchdown here. Pass. We can't take Houston though either. We're just passing it. Okay.

All right. We're not touching that one. That was good. That was a good, healthy dialogue between friends who don't want to lose the listeners' money. Here's one that you're going to like. I know it, and I'm going to be out on this. The Raiders are at the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are laying nine. Are you going to tell me we're laying the nine? No, but I'm going to tell you to just take the under in the Chiefs games moving forward. Under is 48. Under has hit in six of their last seven games raiders offense is just not as prolific lately i would take the i'd smash the under in this game but raiders are one of four um gets the line their last five uh but i i just would take i would just take the under here um that feels much safer i'm not not laying with Kansas City here.

I don't feel comfortable with their offense enough to lay over touchdown. So I'm out. I'm not in this game. Yeah, I don't think so. I do think the Chiefs might end up winning out. They play the Raiders at the Chargers, the Steelers at the Bengals, and at the Broncos. All those feel winnable, and all those feel like statements.

100%. I feel like they might end up winning out and being the number one up with the one scene and we all were like oh chiefs are never gonna win again they might have the one scene everybody might just be chiefs bucks again all right moving on to saints jets my god jets plus five who are the quarterbacks tasem hill and zach wilson i guess tasemaysom Hill, oh, geez. I mean, do we need to talk about this? I don't know what to do with this Saints team, man. The play would be the Jets, but I just,

you're basically blindly betting a bad team. I don't know. And they need to win in the worst way. The Saints defense has been great. I mean mean they're probably not going to lose six straight but i keep saying that every week they're not going to lose three straight four straight five straight yeah i don't know no value in that number no i don't think there's none there's none i hate to just like skip all these and give no analysis but like that i just don't see an angle there i mean like what is it what is the analysis you get the saints have lost five in a row they

don't lose with with sean payne often, but they can win this game. It doesn't mean they cover, right? And you look at the Jets and just the injuries they have. It's just a game no one's going to watch. I just can't do it. Yeah. All right. Let's move on to the Falcons and Panthers.

And one of the strangest lines of the week, the Panthers are favored by two and a half. Who is their quarterback exactly? Cam, I think. We think Cam, who looked atrocious. the panthers are favored by two and a half who is their quarterback exactly cam i think we think cam who looked atrocious i i don't want to bet atlanta again but why i just can't see a world why why carolina is favored without mccaffrey and with a new offensive coordinator like this is they're just going to hand the ball off a thousand times in this game right so the panthers have failed to cover seven last nine falcons are threecons are 3-3-1 against the spread in their last five.

Have won in cover the last three in Charlotte. And Hank put in a good note here that the last four times that the Panthers were favored, they lost straight up. They just fired their OC. But the Falcons, woof. 30-second DVOA in special teams. Carolina's not much better. They're 26th.

They're 7th in defensive DVOA. God, that's just three. I feel so much better about it. But I feel like all the public money's on the Falcons, too. Yeah, it's a bit of a square play. Do you want to just put in the maybes? I mean, i don't want to bet the falcons but i this line just makes no sense to me i just don't see how that how uh

the panthers are favored over anyone right now i i don't i don't know either buddy so we'll put the maybes for now all right uh moving on to ravens browns uh the line we have here is two and a half for Cleveland uh what do you think yeah I take the Browns here um the Ravens are so beat up Matt like they're they're a mash unit like they have no one left to play they have to go for two at the end of the other day because they have no one left to play football for them. Yeah, did you buy that? What? That that was the real reason? Yeah. Huh.

The Browns have a bunch of tight ends hurt. Okay, fine. But the Rangers put their seventh guy in injured reserve. Like, their seventh starter. Who's left to play? This is a Lamar Jackson be a hero game. Browns off a bye. You got to figure they have some some stuff coming out now i know stefanski is awful against the spread in his division i think he's covered one or zero games

um yeah in the division started oh and seven i think but man like i know this is square i know it but we have one team off a buy in cleveland and one team that is so beat up there how long can the ravens keep doing this, dude? They're just, it's just Lamar Jackson holding this team by a thread. So remember in the preseason, how the Ravens won their 20th consecutive game. And we were talking about, you know, how hard they practice and all that. Like they're the most banged up team. They're on their, you know, they're, they're just, they're the most banged up team they're on their you know they're they're just they're planning their games out based on their injuries like john harbaugh clearly a great in-game

coach but like is it time for them to like rethink what they're doing there like this is crazy have you ever seen a team with this many injuries like they just i know tennessee has had their share too but it just feels like with baltimore maybe they're overextending themselves in the beginning of the season and the preseason. It's possible. Because some injuries, they'll feel very just unlucky, right? Yeah. Well, I mean, I think that's true. But when you're talking about your corners, your running backs, it's like ACLs and all this stuff that just keeps happening.

It's like, I wonder if they're just they're just run down. I don't know, but I agree with you. Cleveland was one that I flagged is what I really liked because I actually came into this liking Baltimore just thinking like, hey, they actually should have won last week. Like that ball bounced off Andrews's left hand. Like, you know, Harbaugh's a great coach. We already talked about Stefanski in this division. But here's the thing. Cleveland's schedule, very weird.

They went Ravens by Ravens. So they really have been thinking about the Ravens for a month, and they lost the previous one, and this one's at home. I just think that there's no way that they lose this game as a professional team with a competent coaching staff. Baker Mayfield, this is the game, right? He's been terrible for a month. He's been hearing about it.

And now he's going to come out against no cornerbacks and show up and be like, pay me. I'm the man again. This is what's going to happen. I agree, dude. I'm with you here. Let's put Cleveland in. Done. Hank, good note here.

The past five seasons, the Ravens have been the top oh seven least injured teams four times yeah that actually is now more confusing now that i read it so they generally have not had a problem but i guess it catches up when you go for it constantly in the preseason uh that's my take at least moving on to giants chargers uh the chargers are 10 and a half point favorites jeff can we do it the giants are starting jake from a quarterback on the road good lord is that right i mean this is one of those where i feel like i get till till Friday to put my picks in for the contest. The line will come out tonight at some point. So the line is set to be 10 and a half, 11, somewhere around there. But like if Daniel Jones is not going to play in this game,

what's the final score of this game? 28-10? Like are the Chargers really going to allow the Giants to just run up and down the field on them with a backup, with like a bunch of, with a Jake Fromm quarterback? I mean, like, really? The problem is the Chargers are so unreliable

because like last week, right? They big lead, come back, end up winning big. I think this is a no-brainer, but I would put it in the yes, or at least the maybes. I really don't like the Chargers here. I assumed Glennon would start, and as we're taping, it looks like they expect him maybe to be cleared to start.

Daniel Jones unlikely to play. So Keenan Allen's on the COVID list, so that takes away most of the Chargers production in the passing game. The Chargers just came off this blowout win against Cincy. I feel like we should have just been on to the Chargers because we knew Cincy was just going to fall flat after a win. Giants are always better on the road. And the Chargers have no home field advantage.

I was really considering the Giants here. But the quarterback thing, you just can't do it put it we'll put in the maybe for now then just maybe you know touch on again a little bit i mean keen and alan god the giants haven't had a wide receiver or running back score touchdown since week seven how is that possible man giants another another journey this season for them uh Speaking of journeys, the Lions. Congratulations, guys. You did it. You won a game. You're going to Denver, who's laying eight in mile high. What do you think? Why are the Broncos laying eight to anybody? Right? I agree. I mean, it's ugly, but

Detroit's eight and four against the spread this year. I mean, for context, New England's nine and four, and everyone's talking about how great they are against the spread. I mean, I feel like this is like, I'm curious what you think, just throwing everything else out. If you're on a really ass team that wins its first game, is there momentum now

or is this a like... You're definitely feeling good. The problem is just Jared Goff on the road and cold weather like oh yeah right that's like do we want to do we want to root for jared goff and do you want me to text you with three minutes left jared goff is driving at mile high stadium trying to get a backdoor cover for us no i don't want that right no but that's the side is detroit here right the side is detroit 100 agreed but i'm not sure I want to do that.

How many do we have now? We have like two. Washington and Cleveland. Washington and Cleveland. All right, so we've got some work to do. And maybe Pittsburgh. All right, let's move to the 425 games, 49ers-Bengals. The Bengals are one-point favorites right now.

This is my favorite of the week. Oh, okay i love san francisco if you're getting anything with a plus next to san francisco you have to do it uh shanahan 60 against the spread is a road dog this is when he this is when he works his miracles uh burrow he's gonna play he's gonna be fine but even a little bit banged up this team goes from very competitive against anyone to a mess right like joe burrow we saw what this team was without him last year he holds his team together um last week they got absolutely destroyed uh so but san francisco for some reason i I think San Francisco is getting dinged for losing to Seattle more than Cincinnati is getting dinged for losing to the charters, even though the charters have not done a thing for a month. Uh, San Francisco has played a very difficult schedule this year. They have gone against the NFC West.

The Bengals have had a cake schedule. When you look at their DVO way, it's a complete mismatch. San Francisco clearly is the better team. I just think with Burrow banged up, San Francisco off a loss, this is just an absolute no-brainer that you take the points to San Francisco. 100% agreement with you. I love this play. Everyone's going to be on what you said, right?

Like, oh, the Bengals had an embarrassing loss. They'll bounce back and home. Burrow's pinky, man. That's a big deal. You know, throw this week? What's happening? We have a Niners team, again, off embarrassing loss. They'll bounce back and home. Burrow's pinky, man. That's a big deal. You know, throw this week? What's happening? We have a Niners team, again, an awful loss,

kind of embarrassing loss. I am all over the Niners here. And DVOA is important, right? We kind of talk about efficiency. The Niners, as a team, are seventh. They're actually fourth on offense and ninth on defense. The Bengals, 19th.

19th. They're not as efficient as we think. And you've got an angry Niners team here still playing for the... I love Niners here. I'm with you. Agreed. I love it.

Great. Okay, moving back to... Man, this is a great game. Curious which side you're on here. Tampa is hosting Buffalo. What a terrible 1930s Big Ten game we all had to watch on here tampa is hosting buffalo uh what a terrible 1930s big 10 game we all had to watch on monday night uh tampa's land three do you have an opinion on what's too bad so remember last year about this time of year tampa bay just said you know what

we're gonna kick everyone's ass yeah that's what's happening right now everybody they're gonna kick everyone's ass and buffalo isn to get their ass kicked this weekend. I agree. Yeah. Buffalo has deficiencies. Josh Allen's not playing as well this year. They can't really run the football. After they lost to New England, we heard whining about Bill Belichick.

And don't give him credit. They're just focusing on other things, not themselves. I didn't like to hear that afterwards. Well, don't give him too much credit. Well, then beat him then. What do you want? Going to Tampa now, cold weather team going to warm weather. And I think Tampa's kind of getting that,

getting that, have those eyes right now. They're number one in DVOA. They're starting to play a little, again, they're kind of like getting healthier at certain places. It's public play i get it it's not terribly sharp but i think it's the right play which is more important for me i love tampa here i'm with you i think um i think when you watch tampa last week and we were against them and regretted it heartily when you see vita vea getting into the backfield every single play it's a sign that their defense is about to turn things around their secondary has

been so banged up but he i think is the key um he was last year when he came back last year yeah that was the key yeah it's the same also worth noting very quickly um tampa bay is eight in one in their last nine home games against the spread including the super bowl because that was at home yeah yeah and this year they're four and one against spread at home uh buffalo has good trends off loss and on the road but here's the thing we got to remember tom brady has never lost a home game that he played the entire time to the bills no one has beat a team more in nfl history than tom brady and the bills's, this is a great get right spot for him. They're clearly like doing the MVP push last week. He was on pace in the first quarter.

He was on pace to throw like 80 times in a game where they were beating the shit out of the Falcons. Clearly they have their eyes on the prize here. I love Tampa. I think this is, I think this is a really good one. And I'm starting to wonder like Buffalo, we,

we ate crow on Joshosh allen last year i think both you and i were expecting him to not be quite as good you you were harder on that than i was i'm starting to wonder if like the buffalo has no running game they just haven't had one in the entire time allen has been there i'm starting to see with these teams like if you don't have a running game even no matter how good your quarterback is it's going to fall apart at some point it doesn't matter like all these good teams they seem to just be able to pull games out with just like a quality rushing attack uh that's that extends beyond the quarterback and i i just wonder if buffalo's

problem isn't josh allen it's like they just need they like go in this draft and get get a decent running back give him a chance to succeed am i crazy i think it's i think your your point is more about the offensive line right is that in kind of as you go down the stretch it's very important to have just kind of a an offensive line that can kind of grind on people, right? And kind of get those hard yards for you in big games. Buffalo doesn't have that right now. Tampa Bay does. They're better in the trenches.

They're a better quarterback. They're better at skill position. They kind of can grind on you, especially when it's hot in Tampa Bay this weekend. That's what it is more than just having a run game. To me, that's what it is more than just having a run game it's having it's just like that to me that's what it is you just look at like some of the hottest teams in the league right now you know like the colts have had a good run the patriots obviously they just ran the ball 90 good offensive line dude good offensive lines that's what it is yeah i mean philly like the cardinals like all these teams that can just run the ball and get

four or five yards of carry it's just it wears on you so um yeah i just think that that's that's buffalo's uh big concern here sunday night packers bears uh we're seeing 11 and a half no no really packers oh i know i know which way you want to go i'm down to lay this dude can i just can i just like give you a bath of trends here so the stats here are screaming to take the packers uh first of all this number has gone down this this has been at 12 and a half if we're getting 11 and a half we're getting the best of the number here for sure. LeFleur never lost to the Bears, never not covered to the Bears. 5-0.

Rodgers against the Bears, historically. Wait, it's buried in here somewhere. Well, I'll start here. He's covered 65% of his home games in his career. He's 24-12 against the spread in the division at home. He's 11-5-1 against the spread off of bye. He's 5-0 against the spread in the division at home he's 11 5 and 1 against the spread off of by he's 5 and 0 against the spread versus the nfc north off of by like this is it this is the game justin fields is going to come back he's not going to be healthy this is the game where the bears get absolutely annihilated and fire the coach this is the one but i think the packers could win this one

by 40 like it's going to be mayhem national tv Aaron Rodgers, everyone's dunking on him all season. Now he gets to make his MVP case. It's coming. Packers are 10-1 against the Lions since week one. They've won and covered the last five in this series. They're off a bye. I mean, look, it's one of your favorite ones, right? I just think—

I always, like, deny your favorite one of the week and it wins and we text each other very upset about it. My favorite one is San Francisco, but this is not far behind. We're getting the best of the number too at 11 and a half. This has gone down. So we have one spot left. Washington, Cleveland, San Francisco, Tampa. Let's get to the next game.

We'll circle back to Green Bay. I think Arizona is hosting the Rams. Arizona is a two point favorite on minor football. All the public money is going to be on, on the Cardinals in this spot. Um, we've been wrong about them a lot this year. Uh,

they're playing good football. They play much better on the road than at home. Do you want to, is there anything you want to do on this game? I, man, I went back and forth on this a lot. I was hoping you'd have a better take on it than me

because they seem to be begging you to take the cardinals here but the rams which means you should take the rams but this number keeps going down it's getting closer and closer there's i'm seeing a book where it's at one and a half it's a three in some places two and a half um the cardinals are undefeated straight up on the road this season and they're only i think they're four and three at home which is just very strange this is a cliff kingsbury's played the rams five times he's only won once or maybe it's six times it's it's it's that it's that um you know the nfc west has those incredible like. Yeah, the circles. Yeah. So I think the play is the Rams here, but I'm not really feeling it.

I'd much rather take Green Bay minus the 11 and just think the Bears are going to implode. I'm fine. The Bears suck, man. They absolutely suck. Part of the thing with the Cardinals is last week the Bears just gave them the game. I know.

Turnovers and the red zone stuff, the penalties it was just they they were like trying to lose it so our five right now washington plus three and a half cleveland minus two and a half sf minus one tampa plus three uh you mean minus three sf plus one plus sf plus one i have that green bay tends to be tampa minus three green bay minus 11.5. Are you good with those five? Washington, Cleveland, San Francisco, Tampa, Green Bay. I love those five. You love them. I love them.

Don't you? What would you take out? I mean, Pittsburgh is the one on deck, I think. At this point, we're, I mean, can't do any worse, I guess, right? So let's take a bunch of. We love Tampa. We love San Francisco. No, you're right. We love Cleveland.

Washington's smart. We're getting the hook. And we're getting a great number on Green Bay. You're right. You're right. I'm just so beat up from this 28 and 37 record. We need like a 5-0. We've had 0-5 days.

Where's our 5-0 day at? This is it. This is the first time we've walked out of this and been like, man, these kind of all look tasty to me. Is there one? I really don't mind Pittsburgh State. I really do like all five of them. All right.

Well, let's do it. Those are our five. Let's go. We got it. We're due for one. This is the week. We are due for one. We're due for a lot.

We need to get you guys some wins here in the NFL. In college football, we're fine. Remember, take the under in that Army-Navy game. It's like 34 points. Just take the under. Just auto under in one of the best games of the year. Stand-alone game on Saturday. We're powered by the Varsity Podcast Network.

You can find me at Jeff Schwartz on social media. Please leave a review review it's very important five stars we've great if you like this show very important to to us and to our show um all right we'll be back on monday with a cultural ball show about college football that we didn't play this weekend but we'll talk about uh high some heisman stuff from this weekend we'll talk about bowl games as we head into bowl season um and we'll hopefully have a wrap on coaching carousel. Maybe we'll kind of recap where we are with that, who we think can win right away.

There's still a lot of college topics to talk about. As much as Hank wants us to talk about college basketball, maybe. We'll see how it goes. All right, guys, have a great weekend. We'll talk to you next week. Take care.