Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Projected AFC East & NFC East Team Win Totals

Episode Date: August 6, 2020

Matt Ford returns to the show with gambling advice in a fantasy-style confidence draft of win totals for every NFC East & AFC East team this season. We presume each team will play 16 games and you can't tell us otherwise. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Everybody has to have an alter ego, right? And I've been thinking about what my alter ego would be, and I think I have an alter ego. His name, his name's Mr., Mr., Mr. Unlimited. It's Thursday, August 6th. The NFL is coming back in less than a month, and we are diving deep into division win totals, our favorite props.

The Thursday episode of Just Shartz is Smarter Than You is gambling episode. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Fort, who welcome back into the show. We're back. Let's go. It's been so long. Matt, it has been a very big day for you as your beloved Washington football team laid out their brand new helmets it's the best thing the Washington football team has done yes in the last 25 years I hard disagree how about that we're calling them the Washington football team let's fly

the last time I was on this podcast I wasn't sure if I could say that name or not let's go I'm really proud of them man like they might not be great on the field but they uh they sure have cool looking numbers on their heads we'll take that uh they they yeah we'll get into their their win totals um we're gonna cover the east we're gonna cover the nfc east we're gonna pick two proxies out of 10 total picks together and we're gonna do this fancy draft style we're gonna pick our most confident ones up top or ones obviously that we feel less likely to happen. And this is a, these two divisions,

there are not a lot of great bets in these two divisions, Matt. But we're going to try to make this as fun as possible. We're not going to bog you down with a ton of weird stats and crazy numbers. We're going to get you somewhere to understand each of the teams, what their odds are, and moving forward as such. But Matt, you know,

we haven't talked in a long time. We've talked to Gabe, obviously, about this. How confident are you that this season gets going on time? Not confident at all. I mean, maybe it gets started on time, but, you know, one of the things

that you guys have talked about, you've said, you know, there's just sort of no way you can do the bubble in the nfl and you watch what's happened with mlb and you watch what you watch what happens with the nba and there's a clear contrast between the two of them one's working one isn't uh you know i think the mlb might be dying so that the nfl can live we'll see uh maybe that's not the right analogy, given that it's an actual health crisis. Didn't mean to be insensitive. But I do think that the NFL

is going to have some chaos this year. So, you know, we're talking over-unders. It's funny, like none of them make cash. If they hack a few weeks off the season, all of this is irrelevant. They might do that by tomorrow. But, you know, I think it's still a good conversation because, you know, we're sort of talking about these teams in general,

but using these as a peg. So I'm not very optimistic, but how are you feeling? Because I know this changes all the time. Well, I was feeling a little down today, and then I turned on Twitter as I woke up this morning and saw that Russell Wilson has an alter ego, Mr. Invincible or some crazy thing like that. And I'm going to be Mr. Invincible. When anyone asks me like that. And I'm going to go, I'm going to be Mr. Invincible.

When anyone asks me what's happening, I'm just like, we're playing the whole season. We're doing it. We're playing the whole season. Let's go. By the way, I like Russell Wilson a lot. I think he is much closer to, is it Mr. Unlimited? It's the thing, I don't even know.

Zuri's correcting me in the box. Mr. Unlimited. Mr. Worldwide? What I say, well, I don't even know what I said now. It's such a unlimited worldwide what i say well i don't know what i said now i this is so it's such a random thing who yeah you're right it doesn't matter whatever but who cares yeah russell wilson i'd like russell but now he is he is corny all right let's get into the meat and potatoes of the show we're gonna talk about uh gambling we'll give you our our picks so like we mentioned this is a a really tough two divisions to go for and i'm gonna hate

myself for this first pick but i'm gonna do it anyways i think i'm i'm on the ball here can't wait i'm taking the cowboys over nine and a half wins over nine and a half wins it's a high number high juice i should say 155 or you someplace. It's 160, somewhere around there. It's a lot of juice to weigh on this. But I really don't want to do this, and I'll tell you why. This is why I don't want to do it. But I have to. I have to.

Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott, to me, don't terribly work out well together. And there's obviously a definite disconnect there when he doesn't call him for a month, or a week after they have the job. There's something not going right there. But when you look at their roster, you look at their offense, and you look at their defense, and the potential they have with just kind of a fresh coaching staff, right? Someone that can just guide them a little bit better.

Someone who just doesn't clap on the sidelines every time something bad happens, right? Someone that has a Super Bowl pedigree as a coach. And Mike McCarthy has been open, at least right now, to more analytics, to doing things a little bit smarter, and not letting the old school mentality, which I think Jason Garrett was part of, getting his way. But there's a few other reasons for this. The Cowboys last year were 1-6 in one score games. That typically reverses the following season.

So even if they're three and three in those games or four and two in those games, they're going to win at least 10 games. And they also had nine potential game-tier go-ahead fourth quarter drives in four games against playoff teams. And they only got two field goals out of those. It's not going to be as bad this year in those situations.

They kind of statistically have got to be better in close games and against better teams their schedule also works out pretty well for them they play very easy pass defense and you're going to hear me throughout this by the way talk about defenses they're playing that you know teams are playing and kind of quarterbacks teams are playing i think those are very important you look have to look at past defense on the schedule and quarterbacks on the schedule. I don't really like strength of schedule. I think that's kind of silly to talk about because things change so much.

But pass defense, they play some easy pass defenses. And that to me is another sign that they're going to move the ball really well on offense. And I like their opportunities to win 10 games this year. I feel like there's a few, there's two kinds of teams this year. There's teams that are going for it and there's teams that aren't.

And when you throw in all this chaos of the travel and potentially, you know, teams that are going to rest players, players that are going to opt out, that's going to be a real issue. So I think that's a reason why a lot of people are going to be taking a lot of unders, even though they're less fun to root for.

I will say Dallas is one of those teams that's going for it. Dak Prescott has his whole financial future to be playing for. I know that Amari Cooper just got the big contract, but that team has a lot on the line. Mike McCarthy is doing the comeback tour, has been a good coach. I'm never high on the Cowboys. I think the media always overinflates them and I can't stand them as a fan of the Washington football team. Having said that, I think Dallas really legitimately has

a Super Bowl shot this year. So I like this over. I just, yeah, I'm with you. Like I overvalued them last year and obviously bit me. It bit me um yeah you know they were kind of my surprise nfc team i thought last season and they just you know when you have a new coach i know this is a weird year so it's hard to really you know grasp maybe a new coach this year but that fresh blood energizes you sometimes i think that they'll kind of be energized as a team because and you're right they are going for it this year so um dallas over 10 my first picks me over nine and a half i should say uh matt where are you going i'm gonna stick in the nfc east and not only am i gonna stick in the nfc east i'm gonna stick with jason garrett oh i am gonna go jeff with the giants under six and a half and I'm going to lay the minus 130.

So there are a few reasons why. First of all, you're going to hear me talk about coaching a lot. Now, you should correct me if I'm wrong here, but a new coach in Joe Judge, who has never been a head coach at any level, is going to have to learn how to do that during the middle of a pandemic. That is a serious red flag. I know everybody talks about, oh, he's spent time with Bill Belichick, Nick Saban.

They've never prepared for a pandemic before. They're doing it for the first time now, too. Huge disadvantage. Second disadvantage. Daniel Jones in that offense is learning the clapper system. They're learning Jason Garrett's system, and they have to learn Patrick Graham, their new defensive coordinator system. One year as a defensive coordinator, by the way, for the last-ranked Miami Dolphins defense last year.

Should be good prep for the 30th defense last year in New York. Personnel problems is my big second reason, Jeff. Huge personnel problems. They do not have a good roster. Their left tackle, Nate Solder, out. That O-line is in shambles. Jeff Schwartz is not walking through that door guys they're gonna have a tough time on the offensive line uh of course i wanted i want to mention a few more

of their personnel before i get to my big reason here daniel jones okay everybody as a washington fan again i'm a little sensitive to the daniel jones duane haskins debate everyone has anointed him the preferred young quarterback of the nf East. The guy went three and nine last year. Okay. And he beat Washington and the Dolphins. Those were the only teams he beat. Meanwhile, their best receiver is a guy named Darius Slayton. He was their leading receiver last year. I don't know if that's sustainable. Evan Ingram coming off of foot surgery. And here's the big thing. Saquon Barkley has a lot to think about this year. So if he's following the Christian McCaffrey's, the Ezekiel Elliott's, this is the year leading into his pre-agency year where he's going to start to negotiate for that new contract.

If it's the middle of a pandemic and he's a little banged up and the Giants are two and seven, he's out. He's not going to play. He's not going to risk it. And trust me, they have to play the whole nfc east which is going to be tough usually they have to play san francisco the rams tampa baltimore cleveland seattle arizona they're not going to be good and saquon's going to want to shut it down so this to me is a lock under i am positive about this one uh yeah if you look at at um their schedule there's only three or four games when you're like, okay, there might be a favorite in those three or four games, right? I mean, that's like your football team twice,

and maybe in Washington. Maybe. Maybe in Washington, it's an even spread. The Bengals, like that's it. They're not even going to be favored in a lot of games. Daniel Jones turns the ball over too much. He fumbles the ball too much. And now you add in a conservative play caller in Jason Garrett,

who's just going to try to run the football, which again, does not work when you don't have an offensive line. Now, they have Andrew Thomas to play left tackle as a rookie, but there's no practice time. I don't trust rookie offensive linemen to be up to speed and play great right away. You have a good defensive line. I would say the NFC East has above-average defensive lines.

Your Washington football team, the Eagles have an above-average defensive line. The Cowboys have some good pass rushers. So these other teams are just better. So I love this Giants under 6.5. I know you like to stick it to them a little bit. All right, let's get to my next pick here. I'm taking the Eagles, and I'm going under nine and a half here and minus 120 when i started this process i was going to flip the eagles and the cowboys i was going to do it but when you dig into the numbers a little bit more

and the rosters it just kind of makes clear sense that the Cowboys are a better roster right now and a healthier roster right now and they play an easier kind of schedule for what they need to do and so as much as I like Carson Wentz and Doug Peterson that group together I like it but you know Philly has got to stay healthy which they haven't shown that that they're able to do which is which is hugely important as well but they play a really tough schedule and they're not going to be favored in probably half their games, at least heading into right now. And they also play really good pass offenses. They have basically the third toughest pass offense schedule in the NFL.

Like their defense is going to be taxed. I'm not sure their secondary right now, Matt, is up to that task of playing at that level. So I could easily see them going over nine and a half. But if we're putting a bet on this, I'm taking the under. And last point, and you know this well because you're an NFC East fan, there has not been a repeat winner

in the NFC East since 2004. It's remarkable. And so I know that it's fun to look to, you know, to look at these stats and look, there's no way this trend is going to continue, but I think it does. I think the Cowboys retake that spot in the, in the division and the Eagles are just under nine. I think nine wins is probably where they end up. I like your take here a lot. I would have had a hard time handicapping this one. I will just say this, you know, for the,

the, the thing I like about the Eagles is they, they sort of milk the talent out of their roster, right? Like they seem to get something out of one to 53. And I think a deep team is going to have an advantage this year. But the other thing is other than the magical Superbowl season, Carson Wentz in his career,

seven and nine, his first year, five and six, his second year year nine and seven last year they haven't had that much success for all of the talent that he possesses and that team has around him i don't know about their receivers this year i like there was a lot of question marks it's just basically the track record and usually that's when you like to take an under and assume something's gonna go wrong and one last point too um offensive line is a position obviously i'm near and dear about but you know they had to bring back peters uh to find a spot for him and brandon brooks is the right guard fantastic out for the season yep huge so that's that's i worry about those things

for the eagles and i'm not worried about Wentz's health exactly either, but that injury-prone tag might be something he has to deal with. Yep, and there's no Nick Foles to bail him out this year or last year. All right, man. Here's my next pick. This is the pick I've been looking forward to the most because I am not only going to take the buffalo bills over for even money uh but here's and i think i have them at nine that might be nine it might be eight and a half but i'm gonna call it nine not only am i going to make this case i'm

going to make this case without ever once mentioning josh allen are you ready how can you do that how can you not mention the quarterback watch Watch me do it, Jeffrey. So first of all, the thing I am going to keep harping on with all of my picks and when we do the other divisions, this will remain a constant, is coaching.

Buffalo has an amazing coaching staff. They've made the playoffs two of the last three seasons with New England in their division. They've done it with guys like John Brown, Lorenzo Alexander, Frank Gore. I'm not even going to mention the quarterback they have a great coaching staff uh and this season with all of the stuff

going on they're going to need a herculean coaching effort but they have a lot of continuity which brings me to my next point they're returning their entire offensive line you know they lost star latula lay how about that name drop he opted out but they drafted at oliver so he's going to sort of be able to pick that up they had the number two and three ranked rush defenses the last two years and most of those guys are still there they've got a great wide receiver core like an underrated receiving core john brown stefan digs cole beasley that's pretty nice frank gorgos they replaced him with zach moss and t Yeldon. Thoughtful continuity throughout. There's a sneaky good siding they made.

Josh Norman, who I have my gripes with Josh Norman. His best work was that season where they overlapped with Sean McDermott when he was the defensive coordinator in Carolina. So maybe he'll be able to reclaim him a little bit. It's a lot of football talk. Let me talk to you about this coronavirus, Jeff. There's going to be some problems this year. The teams that are going to have an advantage

are the teams who don't go out or the teams who bubble up, who stay in quarantine. Buffalo is in the best state outfitted to handle the coronavirus. It's New York. Shout out to New York. We've done a really good job after a tough couple months. There is nowhere to go in Buffalo.

This isn't Las Vegas. This isn't LA. This isn't Miami. This is a team that's going to be sequestering themselves because there's nothing else to do. What are they going to do? Break quarantine so they can go to Applebee's and have a Mai Tai? This team has everything to play for. A great coaching staff tom brady's finally gone and they

have a built-in bubble because there is nothing to do in buffalo i love the over and i can push with nine tell me i'm wrong well you're definitely wrong um you're right about the point about the quarantine stuff you're right about that that actually is a valid point. Richard Sherman, by the way, mentioned that Santa Clara has nothing to do for us out in San Francisco. They're an hour from the city. They're not close to San Francisco. That makes sense. But the fact

is you didn't mention the guy that's going to cost them the chance at this opportunity. Don't need to. And that is Josh Allen. Don't need to. Josh Allen is not a good quarterback. He has been below replacement for his first two seasons in the NFL. People brag, Bills fans brag about 58% completion percentage. They brag about a quarterback in the bottom third in almost every advanced metric that measures quarterback play. And guess what, Matt?

They have the number one jump in the NFL in pass defense as they face this season. They make the biggest jump. And last season, the Browns were seven and nine. And everyone said the Browns are going to win nine games. And these are vastly different teams. I get it. But you look at the Browns last season. They had the number one jump in pass defense on their schedule.

And Baker Mayfield had a last season. They had the number one jump in pass defense on their schedule. And Baker Mayfield had a terrible season. This stuff is very important to look at who they're playing. Not really the entire teams they're playing, but segments of each team. They take a huge jump in the pass offense they face as well. Tredavious White

might sit out, might not. We'll find out about that. But I am not betting money on Josh Allen. The guy who threw a deep pass. But he's, dude, this is, might sit out might not we'll find out about that but i am not betting money on josh allen the guy who threw don't have to pass but he's dude this is they they won games 14-7 last season you have to you yeah offense is part of the problem yeah but their defense is awesome but they have a very slim margin of error and if josh allen gets no better they're not winning 10 games. Look, this is not a Josh Allen bet. This is a coaching bet. This is the AFC East is weaker bet.

The rest of that division is totally ripe for the taking. And this is a continuity play. They've got the other than Belichick. Obviously, they have the best coach in that division. So they're going to have a I think they're going to have a pretty easy time winning games. And they don't have a lot to sort of figure out in training camp in the preseason they should be able to start out hot i think those teams that have good defenses are gonna win games early and all of a sudden if they're three three and oh four and one something

like that this is a pretty easy bet to win they play the jets the dolphins start out so they easily kill and then play the la rams they easily the LA Rams. They could be a team that comes out hot, which will just drive me crazy. Because Josh Allen will complete like 57% of passes. And people will be like, see, Josh Allen, really good. You're thinking too myopically, dude. Like, get out of your mentions. It's not Josh Allen. This team is about winning in spite of Josh Allen more than because of your mentions. It's not Josh Allen. This team is about winning in spite of

Josh Allen more than because of Josh Allen. How many teams, you're betting on a team in 2020 to win in spite of their quarterback. That's a ridiculous way

to look at it. I'm not saying they're winning the Super Bowl. I'm saying they're winning nine or more games. That's not that big of a stretch with the best defense potentially in the league

at all. Yeah, Buffalo, and you can find them at nine, eight and a half. Look, eight, I'll tell you what. Take the over, you can find them at nine eight and a half look eight i'll tell you what take the over you get even money it at eight and a half i i would it's not a bad bet to go like i think they're in the eight or nine win range i don't think they're like in a 10 win range it's hard to win 10 games it's very hard it's very hard there's only a handful of teams win 10 games every year and And one of them is a team that I'm going to next, the New England Patriots.

Nice segue. Over 9.5. Over 9.5. I do radio for a living. I'm a segue artist here. Calm down, Joe. Get to the pick. There we go.

New England over 9.5 wins plus 135. That was good. This is a more of a nostalgia pick more than anything else. Because the roster is decimated. We was good. This is a more nostalgia pick more than anything else because the roster is decimated. We know that. But they have the greatest coach in the game in Bill Belichick. Cam Noon is healthy.

Wake me up when this take is over. This is ridiculous. Cam Noon is healthy and ready to go. I will ride with the Patriots until they stop making me money. And for years, they have made me money. Part of that is Tom Brady, who's now Tompa Brady. I'm riding with this, Matt. It's not one of those where I have a great case,

other than just I'm betting with the ticker, man. I'm betting with the heart on this one. And everyone's going to bet the under, right? It's juice to the under. Juice big time to the under. But I get a rejuvenated Cam Newton who needs this season to go well. A rejuvenated Bill Belichick who's been hanging out in that house all day with Linda and that dog.

He's ready to get to work. He's ready to get back to work. This sounds like one of my things. And show this league. It's the exact take of the Bills. Just utter crap and nonsense that sounds really good into a take i'm doing it right now i'm doing it again i'm doing the matt ford give me patriots over nine and a half juiced not even juiced i should say plus money plus 135 so you're taking but you're taking

new england to win 10 games because bill belichick has a dog that's what i got out of that take here's dude that doesn't have won the draft two questions for you two questions first of all how often does a team with a historically great defense like that the next year just completely revert and regress to me and they had so many i owned them in fantasy last year so many special teams touchdowns so many pick sixes so many fumb sixes that that doesn't happen at two years in a row first problem second problem are we sure cam newton is starting at the beginning of this season yes how he's not gonna have any preseason you're gonna have this weird old training camp we don't exactly know how healthy he is are we sure that they're not gonna roll out there with jared stidham just because it's familiar

that's a very bellicose familiar he's been there one year he threw four passes yeah he's been there for a full year that's as long as jacoby bruce was there when he came in that's as you know jimmy garoppolo didn't play until he played and was good look you have the ability to start a hell let's say camden's health is all predicates like camden being healthy right you have a chance to start if it does um you know you have a chance to start with with you know cam noon healthy cam noon who has do we know he's all the battles i i everything i say is assuming he's healthy i think he is i mean i don't isn't i mean he's throwing the football he looks good he's a day ucla with motivational videos he's ready to go man he's thrown with muhammad sanu this um this is a

pathetic take to be better than this this is my stuff i'm the instagram troll this is betting with your heart 101 the first two picks i gave you were stat based or we're oriented in that direction they're great picks this one you're betting with your heart and the bills by the way you're you're betting with your heart too which is terrible no i'm betting with logic about this quarantine here's the thing jeff when you play the stock market there's this thing that happens where you've been riding these companies so long and then there's this bubble and then it bursts and it's all about did you get out were you too greedy new england has made us all a lot of money for a long time it's just not gonna happen anymore it's just not plus 135 i'm not even greedy here plus 135

you're you're taking a shot uh well i talked a lot of crap and then i'm about to give you just a terrible pick that as i'm reading it and see that myself having to present it, I don't feel great about it. But I'm going to take the Washington football team. I'm going to take them, geez, over five and a half. Here is why. Again, we return to coaching. So I wanted to take the under on this really badly i looked at the facts i went with the over ron rivera went six and ten every full season or better every full season he had in carolina okay he's a very good coach uh additionally

jack del rio defensive coordinator has some things to say on Twitter. That's one thing we know about him. The second thing we know about him, he takes decent or bad defenses and turns them into great ones quickly. When he took over the Denver defense when he was the coordinator there, they went from 24 to 2 in his first year. Carolina, when he got there before that,

when he worked with Rivera, they went from 28th to 5th. And the Washingtonhington defense they have some real pieces to work with right they obviously they draft jace young people forget like landon collins is there they uh they signed ronald darby they signed kendall fuller their only real problem is the middle linebacker spots they still have ryan kerrigan montez sweat really came on last year they legit could have the best defense in the division and i'm not just saying that like they have the pieces, the obvious problem, the offense is horrible, right? But they should be able to kind of grind out some close games. And with this weird season, it is possible that that's what happens. Now, a couple things

about the way in Haskins, he started playing a lot better down the stretch he did not look great at the beginning of the year and remember that they were just like a completely dysfunctional team uh they were competing their head coach for most of the season was now the browns offensive line coach okay they were really unhealthy they had a really tough schedule they had the 32nd ranked offense last year. They have to get better than that, right? But here's the last thing. They're not going to quit under Rivera. And even if Haskins is bad, there's this one big wrinkle to this season.

And it's that Alex Smith has been cleared to practice. So if Dwayne Haskins bombs, if he starts the season and he's 0-4, this isn't the regime that drafted him. They have nothing invested in him besides the previous regime's pick. The whole organization is up for grabs, right? What if Alex Smith comes back? It's actually in the organization's best interest to play him, because if he's an asset, then they can move him or they can build around him. They should figure out if he's any good. So if he plays, all of a sudden they could win some games. So I don't exactly know what the deal is here, but I will say this over is actually juiced. People are laying the money to take Washington over. I think it's because they're not going to have that terrible lack of home field this year

because there's not going to be any fans. So I actually, as a DC fan who had season tickets, we haven't been showing up for a while so i think people are actually talking themselves into a good coach some running backs and a great defense so there's a lot to like about this pick uh just because if you look at the history of nfl standings okay i went back the last four years and you typically find the second place team in every division at least has six wins and to your point you have the giants being the fourth place team in the division every year there's one

division out of the eight where a team where there's two teams under six wins that typically is not back-to-back years though for example it was like the nfc west in 2016 it was not the nfc west the following season okay so really, you're not going to have two teams again under six wins like we had this past season in the NFC East. So just like historically speaking, this makes a lot of sense. I agree with you a lot on the defense. I like Ron Rivera a lot as well. And Jack Del Rio, just delete your Twitter, please.

It would make things a lot better. That'd be great. It would be great. But I do think Haskins kind of got a bad rap last year he was playing an organization that was a complete wreck and now he has a stable organization which alex smith i'll tell you this before i hope just for his sake because i've been hurt a bunch that he does not play again like i i know that he wants to play again but but I hope he... It's not like...

I said this on Twitter, and people were like, well, you're holding his dreams down. I said, no, I'm not. I just don't want him to go through that again. And if you look at his leg, I mean, his rehab is remarkable. Yeah.

But we've seen that. He's been a mentor twice, right? To Colin Kaepernick and Pat Mahomes. And both those guys ended up being really good. Now he gets to be a mentor twice, right? To Colin Kaepernick and Pat Mahomes. And both those guys ended up being really good. Now he gets to be a mentor. And he's cleared to be with the team now. It's not like he's doing this from afar. He's with Dwayne Haskins every day.

I think that's supremely important. Scott Turner, their OC, is a young up-and-coming coach. He's obviously Norv's son. And so I think if you look historically at division rankings, this makes a lot of sense. And you're right. There is some juice on this,

which means that the smart people are betting Washington over five and a half. All right, my last pick here. This is number four. By the time we get to this part of the picks. These are regions. We've already been reaching. We'll just throw Doug to the board.

Yep. I'm taking the Jets. Over six and a half wins. I believe they're six and a half. Oh, my God. And the only reason I'm doing this is just to troll Gabe. Because Gabe is a huge Jets fan. And he thinks Darnold is the worst quarterback of all time.

And Adam Gase is the worst coach of all time. There's really no other reason to take the Jets over six and a half, other than if you think Sam Darnold, and I do, is a good quarterback. I think he's a good quarterback. Last year, he played really well down the stretch when he got to get over his mono and get in the offense. Remember, he had a great preseason. He came out and got mono early on and was kind of never the same since then. And he won't, excuse me, until like the last month of the season.

He played really well. and was kind of never the same since then. And he won't, excuse me, until like the last month of the season. He played really well. So the question becomes, do you trust Adam Gase basically to not be crazy, which is tough to do. But I think the Jets can do enough to get over that mark

and get themselves cashing at seven wins. Wow. Well, I will say that if that happens, then this one will not happen. Because I also stuck with a bad team in the AFC East. And I also went over. I went over with the Miami Dolphins over six and a half. I have even money on this one. This is my last pick.

As Jeff said, I'm the least confident in this. I came into this one just like my last one with Washington. Thinking, I got to hammer this under. But then just I I gotta be honest Jeff I forgot how much improved they are after this offseason three first round picks they spent almost 180 million dollars in contracts this free agency like that's not a team that's trying to slowly rebuild that is a team that actually thinks hey we're kind of close. I mean, they signed Kyle van Noy, Byron Jones, Jordan Howard, Shaq Lawson. Those are guys who are not like, this is their big contract and they're in their primes.

These are guys coming from, from teams that were competing last year to come into Miami and hopefully make them a lot better. Uh, also remember last year they beat the Colts, the Eagles, and the Patriots at the end of this season. And they had the worst defense in the league. I mean, that is a serious credit to their coaching staff that they were able to do that. They also, on offensive line, I'm a little worried

because they're not going to have the preseason to come together. And I'm telling you this. But they should have four new starters so that's a huge upgrade and i know that you know they potentially have a uh a rookie right tackle but they signed ted karras from new england they signed eric flowers who was actually great last year in washington he was he was okay he was really good i mean he got a huge contract so i mean tell the dolphins it doesn't mean you're good but continue i mean fair um they got they signed jordan howard they traded for matt burrito when did that even happen like i remember that but Doesn't mean you're good, but continue. I mean, fair. They signed Jordan Howard.

They traded for Matt Breida. When did that even happen? I remember that, but I don't think it actually registered with me. And then there's this Tua thing. And if Tua does what he has done everywhere else in his life, he's a potential game changer. But if he's not ready, Fitzpatrick went into Foxborough and beat the Patriots last season when they were playing for home field advantage.

Problem, very tough schedule. They do have the Pats and Bills twice obviously Chiefs 49 or Seattle but they get Cincinnati Jacksonville Vegas and the Jets twice that might be five right there I will say this if you bet this take them to make the playoffs plus 375 don't just take the uh the plus 100 yeah so I'm going under here. And the reasons you mentioned at the very end are why. Their schedule is brutal. I love Warren Sharpe's preview. He does a great job, okay? There's a lot of stuff in there, but you can pick through and see what you want.

Right now, he is the Dolphins' only favorite in three games the entire season right now. And that's my problem is their schedule was so tough. And you mentioned all the new players, all the new draft picks, Tua Tong to a tongue of ilola who's healthy i'm glad he's healthy and all these things coming together in the middle of a pandemic in a state right now that is is a hot spot and so i worry about all those things coming forward they play the number one toughest past defense schedule really defensive efficiency schedule in all of the nfl number one passing it so just it sets up in my opinion number one red zone scoring defense they play it's just the schedule so tough with a roster that's needs it needs to come together so i like the under uh but i could see look your point about taking to make the playoffs is interesting because if you think

they're going to be better than 6.5, they're probably going to shoot kind of way up. And a playoff bet is worth it. All right, let's get to our props fairly quickly. So we're going to choose a couple of props each week. I'm going with passing yards. Tyler Murray over 3950.5. And that's juiced pretty high at minus 150.

This would put him, if you look at last season, that would put him between 11th and 12th for passing in the NFL. They added DeAndre Hopkins. Larry Fitzgerald's coming back. Christian Kirk as well. I was very surprised how well he played. 64% completion percentage. 3,700 yards as a rookie last season.

So he just needs to get, you know, three, four more games to add 50 yards. And he's right at this number. You know, he was, he was kind of in the, in the upper third, as far as efficiency last season on an offense that ran the ball really well, but just passing game, he's getting used to playing in the NFL as far as the system he's in and Kingsbury is getting used to being a play caller. So I think Murray's going to have a great season. I think he can make a second year jump like Lamar Jackson made, like Pat Mahomes. Now, obviously not something in the MVP, in my opinion, but I think he's going to make a big jump.

He has all the weapons around him. So give me over here, 39, 50.5. And it's just a little bit at 150, but I like the money here. He's gotten a ton of buzz this season, which kind of makes me a little bit at 150, but I like the money here. He's gotten a ton of buzz this season, which kind of makes me a little bit worried. I mean, that's a very tough division, and I don't know. Are you scared off? I mean, Seattle's defense is not terribly good at the moment.

The Niners' secondary is their weakness right now. The Rams, when we get to the NFC West, I'll tell you right now, my favorite pick in almost all the NFL is the Rams under, I think, eight and a half or nine. I just think that he has a chance to look. He needs 50 more yards for over four games to get this done. I mean, it's like it's not a lot of yardage compared to what he had last season. So that's why I like it. Fair enough. I'll be quick on my last one. I'm sticking in the with a pick i basically made earlier i'm taking saquon barkley under 1250 and a half rushing yards uh that number kind of

bounces around everywhere first first of all bet unders this year with player props i mean jeff despite what you just laid out for kyler murray if somebody misses a game they're not going to hit their rovers okay and we have no idea how this season's going to go if the Giants are bad Saquon is not going to play all right he's going to play for he's going to try to get that contract he's not going to get hurt Nate Solder opted out rookie left tackle uh also this is how the Giants season starts Steelers Bears 49ers Rams Dallas where they'll be behind all game, Washington, Tampa's number one rush defense last year, Philly's number three rush defense, and Washington again.

They're not going to have any success running the ball, and then he's not going to play anymore. So that's a lock. I love this bet so much. And we did this show, we did a show like this previously, and we would talk about making a bet actually happen. I'm actually physically going to my offshore right now and making this bet this is this is no not allegedly i'm actually doing it um

this bet right now i think is the favorite bet i've heard in our show besides my eagles bet i like a lot and my cowboys bet and obviously the bill's under because you're crazy with that this bet is fantastic you're exactly right because if they start slow the incentive for him to kind of continue playing around covid it doesn't make sense when he's heading into kind of a contract year the one concern i do have about this i'll just give a quick counterpoint is that jason garrett's going to try to run him in the ground he's going to try to run him in the ground. He's going to try to do it now, whether or not that happens to your point about being behind a lot of games and the giants not being very good is the question mark. But I think that he will try to do this.

But dude, this is a great bet. I'm finding right now. And I'm really literally here. It is right. She's rushing yards. Nice. I was,

I love it, man. I am looking at teams this year where there's like one outsized star. The Giants are one of them. You know, like Von Miller and the Broncos potentially could be another. I'm having a tough time coming up with another example off the top of my head. But any of those teams where it's like one guy is like, you know, Aaron Rodgers decides he's going to opt out. The Packers fall apart.

Like there's so many teams. Oh, yeah. is like Aaron Rodgers decides he's going to opt out, the Packers fall apart. There's so many teams where if one guy just says, I'm out, or he has to quarantine for two weeks, the team falls apart. So I'm looking at those this year for an edge for unders. Yeah, there's quarantine suckers. It doesn't feel great. I don't like how that feels, but it's life.

I'm with you there. All right, this was a ton of fun, Matt. We've done this before, many, many, many times. It's nice to be back with you. Talk to you, man. Roasting each other, which is fantastic. Thanks for having me. Zuri laughing in the chat.

So, yeah, moving forward, this episode will be gambling later in the week. And we'll have football conversations. We get news that happens. But we're going to focus a lot on gambling. We're going to cover every division heading into the regular season. Then we're going to have our picks on Thursdays for the week. We'll probably throw in a Thursday pick every week so we have you guys ready for that. Then we'll get ready for our games on Sunday.

This is how we're going to do it. I love gambling. Matt loves it as well. I hope you guys do too. I know it's a big industry that's happening right now. We'll have you prepared each and every week. I appreciate you guys tuning in today have a great weekend we'll be back on tuesday we'll cover everything in the nfl take care everybody