Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Projected AFC North & NFC North Team Win Totals

Episode Date: August 13, 2020

Geoff & Matt share advice for each AFC & NFC North team's win total projection heading into the season. This year's bounce-back team might surprise Cheeseheads. Plus, could Lamar Jackson win a rushing title? All that and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday august 13th we're back with win total predictions for the afc north and the nfc north and we'll add in our favorite prop bets along the way i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford welcome in matt um hey buddy i'm happy to have you here you're wearing an old school bullets shirt uh very appropriate i I very much appreciate it. But I'm a little sad because college football, as I know it, is a Pac-12 guy. My main job, by the way, is Pac-12 radio Monday through Friday. We don't have a Pac-12 football season. And I'm sad.

I've been bummed, man. I told myself I would give myself a day. And that day was yesterday. My wife, who you've met. We had dinner in Spain together. So you know who she is. I've talked about her a bunch. And that day was yesterday. My wife, who you've met, we had dinner in Spain together. So you know who she is. I've talked about her a bunch. She's a savage human.

I text her yesterday and I said, you know, hey, that Pac-12 football got canceled. I'm really sad. Then I maybe text her later. I'm like, I'm still really bummed. She called me. She goes, why are you pouting over this? I said, because my wife's not a sports fan okay not a sports fan at all i'm like this is my job and i love football just no semblance whatsoever of any sort of clue that like my

life revolves around football which is just the most incredible look at my office she designed this for me she put this together she knows i play I play football. I think. Maybe she does. I don't know. But I had to laugh a little bit to start the show because I'm sad because my favorite football is not going to be played this year. I'm sad, Matt. I'm sad. And your Maryland ain't playing either. Yeah.

I mean, it's so hard to tell where this will actually end, but it's just going to be chaos for the next couple of weeks. I think the only thing we can know for sure. It is going to be chaos, but luckily we have the NFL. The NFL has great, I hate saying great positive test results because that's actually not good, I think, maybe. The president covered this one time. But the numbers are good. The numbers are good in the NFL. There's very few positive tests.

So they're doing what they have to do. They increased testing now through September 5th. Every day. If you watch Hard Knocks, you saw the Rams and the Chargers do everything they can to keep everyone healthy. If you go to any of the team websites, you see all the protocols they put in place. So I feel very good about doing win totals for the AFC North and the AFC North. For those who are not familiar, we're going to just draft basically. Most confident to least confident.

No order. We're going to snake draft essentially. 1-1-1-1-1. We'll have a prop bet at the very end. And I want to make a disclaimer. Matt, you can also throw this in here too. Please. If I'm physically making the bet, I will tell you.

Okay? If I'm physically making the bet, I will tell you, okay? It's very important to discuss this because we are giving you our best idea of what we would do if it's your favorite team or team that you root for, a team you hate. We're giving you the best we think that win total can be. We're not betting all 32 teams in the NFL. Like, for example, last week I made a bet. Matt had a Saquon Barkley prop under. I bet it under. I literally did it.

I said I did it, and I actually did it. So we will let you know along the way if we've made these bets. And I will start off. I have made this bet. I have made the Baltimore Ravens over 11.5 wins. And I will lay as much juice as you would like to make that bet. I do not think they're going to go 16-0 like Colin Coward does, but they're going to go 14-2, 13-3, a 15-1. They have

by far the easiest schedule of any contender. They play the 30th ranked offensive efficiency and a 30th ranked defensive efficiency. They have an easy schedule. And when you look at their purpose this year, their purpose is winning playoff games, right? They have to prove now that everything they've done pays off in the playoffs. And they're going to make teams pay in the regular season to get that one seed and to go ahead and prove to everyone that this is their time to make the Super Bowl.

You either get better or worse in the offseason. The Ravens coming off a great season last year got better, right? Calais Campbell, J.K. Dobbins. They have to replace Marshall Yand at right tackle, but I think they'll be okay in that manner. They're going to be favored in every single game they're playing this season. And when you have a short and off season as we have, players haven't had time to prepare

for the Baltimore Raiders offense. I'll give you a little insight. When you do the OTAs in the off season, typically you might spend a day or two looking ahead to opponents. We do this in Kansas City. We spent one day on the Raiders, one day on the Broncos, one day on the Chargers.

I'm sure teams in the North would spend some time with, look, here's Baltimore's run game. Here's how we have to fit it. Here's how we play. None of that's happening. None of that's happening. So I think Baltimore, and I don't like betting overs, Matt. You know this. Dude, they're going to blow past 11 and a half wins.

I think this is one I would just want to lay off. So I'm glad you took them off the board. 11 and a half is a big number man it is a big number that's one you know lamar jackson injury of course i mean there's so many things that could happen this season or even like hey they've clinched the playoffs they've nothing to play for in the last week like there's lots of things that can go wrong i will say the thing uh our buddy stucky over at action network uh he pointed out that the furthest they have to travel this season distance wise is houston i mean that the furthest they have to travel this season

distance wise is houston i mean that's it they they play at philly at washington pittsburgh cleveland cincinnati new england indy houston i mean very friendly schedule obviously most of those teams are are not much to worry about anyway um so this is what i would just lay off because i think you're right but i also am having to lay some juice to get 12 wins or more. So enjoy that. You have not convinced me to make that bet. Let me see if I can convince you to make my first pick. That is Chicago under eight and a half.

And I'm getting plus 130 for this. So I have a real question. Love it. Why are the Bears supposed to win nine games i don't understand in any world why anyone thinks that the bears got half a game better over last year first of all last year they were 4 and 12 against the spread jeff do you know what that means it means they were a bad team masquerading as a decent one because they played last year the best team that they beat they beat minnesota twice they beat dallas but then their

next best win after that i think was probably denver i mean that's that's not very strong and what did they do this offseason they added a quarterback competition somehow they were unable to upgrade over mitch trubisky i don't really know what their plan is a quarterback, which generally means that's not going to be a great outcome. They've been carried by a great defense the last two years, obviously. And Matt Nagy, the offensive genius, has overseen the 25th and 29th best offenses in his first two years in Chicago. Not great. You're telling me that the addition of Jimmy Graham and Nick Foles, along with a much harder schedule because they play the NFC and AFC North, means that they're going to get better from last year? I don't get this.

I think they're a public team, and so maybe their number got inflated. I'm very comfortable with this under. I love this pick because look at what we define kind of like how we do this every week, which is quarterback and coaching, right? So you talked about Matt Nagy. I think he's a good coach. We don't really know. He's had one decent season so far as a play caller.

And that's really it. Last season wasn't very good. He's not able. And maybe Trubisky is just not good enough. And that's why they haven't won quite the level we thought. But Trubisky is not good enough. And that's the problem. And neither is Nick Foles, guys.

Look, what Nick Foles did in the Super Bowl and the NFC Championship game in 2017 was remarkable. We do not give that enough praise, in my opinion. Backup quarterback, he threw for 500 yards against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. But that's not who Nick Foles is. Look at his career. Look at his time since then. Now, he's being's being obviously traded away. He has to find a new home in Chicago in the middle of COVID,

has to learn the system, which he pretty much knows already. But it's going to be really hard. You talk about the schedule they have. They have the sixth toughest offensive schedule. They play a ton of great offenses this year. And the defense did kind of regress last season. I kind of expect it to just be okay this year. Maybe like 10th.

That's not enough in this division, in my opinion, to win nine games. I'm with you here. I'm just taking this division. And this is something that I don't know if it's going to be a popular pick, but I'm going to do it anyways. I'm taking Green Bay under nine wins. Under nine wins. Minus 115.

I'll tell you why. I know. What? Okay. You either get better or'll tell you why. I know. What? Okay. You either get better or you get worse in the offseason. Do you think the Packers got better this offseason? I am curious to hear why you would say they didn't. I guess they didn't upgrade in some big spots.

Thank you. Yes. They drafted a quarterback. And Aaron Rodgers would be pissed about that. And they're going to this run-first offense without an upgraded offensive line. They lost the right tackle in Brian Bulaga, who's a big part of what they did on offense. They did not upgrade that position. But here's why.

Last season, seven points or fewer in a game, they were 6-1. That does not happen back-to-back years, right? So there'd be maybe 3-3 in that. And they were 6-0 against their division. That's not going to happen again this season because their division, Minnesota, I think is going to be good. I'll get to the Lions in a second. I think the Lions are going to be much better.

But here's the kicker, and I love Bill Barnwell. You know that Bill helps me out time and time. But he wrote a great article on teams that are going to regress. He had a – Green Bay was 13-3 last year, a 63-point differential for the season, which is not a lot for a team that's 13-3. It was the worst point differential for a 13-win team in 31 years. They did not win a lot of impressive games last year. They struggled to win a lot of games they should have easily won.

I don't think they're that good. Aaron Rodgers helps them a lot, but even then, he wasn't good in the second half of football games last season. He was great in the opening script, and I just don't see the Packers as being a team that's going to win 10 games or nine games. Even, I mean, I'm very surprised because I mean, you said it, there were 13 and three last year. That is a, I do think they got a little bit lucky, obviously with all those close games and they were not as good as their record shows. Having said that they could still be 11 and five this year um one thing that's really underrated

i think about green bay i mean the concern about not upgrading at receiver totally valid but davante adams missed a lot of games last year and that he's always hurt that guy's no he's not he's been really consistent in the last couple years and when you look at like how important of a guy he is in the red zone he's head and shoulders above almost any receiver in the nfl and i think that explains why it was a little bit bumpy for them on offense for a long time look i i'm not betting against a pissed off aaron rogers uh so i think that they can certainly make the playoffs which is all you would need to do with you know nine nine or more. So I'm not with you there. Rodgers, he's not as efficient anymore.

Like he's not, if you look at the efficiency numbers, he's just not as good anymore. And I know that his talent is very, is still high, right? We revere Rodgers still because of his arm talent. But his efficiency numbers last season were in the middle of the NFL. Like he wasn't as efficient as a passer as we would like to believe was and maybe davante adams is that is that answer this year but even rogers said he was pissed they didn't draft a wide receiver how they help him a tight end how they help him right tackle they're gonna start running the football more i don't like to hear they're running the football more it doesn't

equal my opinion more wins so um i'd go under under nine here again this is not i'm not i bet the ravens this is what i i haven't bet this one but i take the under nine yeah it's it's not one i would feel great about taking but uh yeah i definitely don't think they're they're getting four games worse this season and one of the reasons why is i think that the rest of their division is a little bit weaker and that that leads to my next pick of Minnesota under nine. Look, this isn't a pick I love. I would have loved to have taken Green Bay instead. I'm going to make this pick because last year,

Minnesota got a ton of lucky breaks, and that started with their schedule. This year, they have road trips at Seattle, Green Bay, Tampa, New Orleans, Indy, Houston. That's tough. They beat one playoff team last year until New Orleans in the playoffs. And that was Philly. They're a team that consistently beats teams that they're equal to or better than. But they don't ever seem to rise up to the occasion. Last year, they swept the AFC West minus the chiefs and the nfc east like not

an amazing accomplishment they lost the chiefs by the way with matt mort quarterback not with right that's right um i didn't even remember that uh the second the second big point i want to make about minnesota is they've kind of had the same team for a bunch of years and yeah to their credit like they've had a really good personnel across the board. But this year, nine different contributors on defense. They were top five in sacks last year. That's going to change now because Everson Griffin's gone. Linval Joseph is gone. They lost their top three corners.

Think about that. Last year, they were third in the league in interceptions. That's not just not going to be as high this year. So they also have a new offensive coordinator, even though it's Gary Kubiak, who's obviously an amazing offensive coordinator. That's still a big change. Losing Kevin Stefanski to Cleveland. The other thing, you know, people talk a lot about Stefan Diggs and, you know, they replace him with Justin Jefferson. I think Justin Jefferson is going to be a great pro, but it's going to be hard to adjust to a new offense right away.

And, you know, Adam Thielen, we were talking about receivers that are really dynamic but get hurt. Like, he's had some problems with that. Speaking of getting hurt, last year, Dalvin Cook had 14 starts. That matched his total for his first two seasons in the league. I don't know.

They seem to have a lot of lucky breaks last year. I'm going to lean towards the under with the plus money. It feels like they're an 8-8 team to me. You know, the thing that's tough about, in my opinion um just choosing a vikings win total is you know they're kind of like a kind of a gritty team right like they find ways to win those games that you mentioned that they shouldn't kind of win yep and cuts is just just like enough to win these games they're never winning the super bowl with this team but i feel feel like a Zimmer team just kind of is like always going to be around that number,

which makes it, it's almost like Seattle, where we'll get to the West eventually. But like, you know, Seattle's like always going to be around nine wins. I feel like the Vikings are kind of always going to be around that. And to your point, last year they had some breaks. This year they might not get the breaks. And they didn't get better. And again, Stefanski, I think, will be allowed to be a different play caller in Cleveland, which obviously I think will be different in Cleveland than it was.

But Zimmer has got to let the offense kind of flow more through Cousins, which he's starting to be terrified to do. So I would – this is one of those where I think I would just – I wouldn't take anything here. I think the Vikings are – again, I just like, I'm like, I don't, I'm not quite sure what, you know, what nine feels like, like Seattle. We'll get to them again. It feels very much like that.

All right. Here's, I don't know if it's a first shocker pick, but I'm going to make this case for the Lions over six and a half wins. And we have to look at what they were last year before stafford got hurt remember he only played uh eight games there were three three and one after seven games all right three three and one for seven games they led they led kansas city with two minutes left in that game if you remember that it was the chief's kind of first bad game of the year they led green bay by 13 points and lost that game i I believe they led the Vikings two by seven points.

It's like we're going to lose that game. They need to finish games better. And they need to realize how to do that. I think they can with the roster they have, especially if Stafford is healthy. They added Jeff Okuda, which is hugely important. And their schedule is much, much easier this year. I go back to Warren Sharp, who I love his book because it breaks down a lot of scheduling things. But they basically improve this year against the rush defenses they faced,

the pass defenses they faced, the pass offenses they faced. And I think they're going to be just better this year with Matt Stafford, a quarterback, assuming, obviously, he's healthy all season. This feels like that team that comes out of nowhere to win eight or nine games and compete for a playoff spot, just out of nowhere.

There's one team every year from worst to first. And if you look around the NFL at the standings from last season, Arizona is the trendy team to make this happen. Trendy teams often don't do that, right? We know that. So which of the other teams in the NFL do you really see going worst to first not the Dolphins not the Bengals not the Jags not the Chargers not the Washington football team not the Panthers not the Cardinals it's the Lions the

Lions have the best quarterback in that group if Matt stays healthy they can get to seven wins I gotta say i mean i'm not gonna make this bet but you've kind of talked me into it here i mean it's easy to knock matt stafford is injury prone for some reason but before last year he hadn't missed a start since 2010 which is kind of baffling um i also think i you know they have one of the best receivers in the league on that team and kenny galladay that no one talks about did you know he led the nfl and he led receivers and touchdowns last year i mean he was on my i think he was on my fantasy team uh and marvin jones is really good as well really tough deandre swift was a nice uh nice pickup in the draft i

they have some talent i think you know we've we think we just don't know how good their coach is. That's the concern, obviously. I found with both of these divisions, I felt like I didn't have a ton of conviction in any spots. That's probably a good bet. Minnesota under, I feel fine about it. Speaking of things I don't know how great i feel about let me do this one first yeah i'm oh god i'm oh boy i'm gonna take pittsburgh over nine and a half yes yes so you're saying yes is this because you're gonna blast me for it or no i i i love it dark horse team to win the afc oh interesting well maybe i should cede some time to you here but i i feel like this is kind of a

little bit of a sucker bet because this is a public team and this number feels inflated to me but look we've talked we've now done this with you know almost uh almost four divisions here there's a theme with the picks i'm making this year. The teams that will be good tend to have good coaching, lots of depth, lots of continuity. So Pittsburgh's coaching, I almost feel like Mike Tomlin is underrated. I mean, Pittsburgh hasn't finished below eight and eight since 2003. As a Washington football team fan, that's like unfathomable. Last year, they finished eight and eight despite having the 30th ranked offense in the NFL. They still got to eight wins. They had a seven and one stretch last season. I mean, think about that. They were in the playoff hunt in the last week of the season, despite Duck Hodges

and Mason Rudolph for most of the year. In addition to that, you know, the depth, I really want to hit this point because it's not like a sexy topic, but they were one of the youngest teams in the NFL last year at all the skill positions. And while guys like Deontay Johnson and Benny Snell were kind of nice, they got some really important snaps last year in big games. So now if Juju Smith-Schuster misses games this year, or James Conner does, and by the way, they're both in contract years, so this is a big year for them. They have a lot more depth. They have guys who have played. And there weren't a ton of changes to this team. They did add Eric Ebron,

which I feel like kind of went under the radar. Great red zone target. Yes. He's got to catch the ball, though. He has drop issues. But if he catches the ball, he's really good. And stay healthy. They were the fifth-ranked D in the league last year,

and all those key guys are back. But here's the thing. Ben Roethlisberger, he's basically playing for his career at this point, right? He's injury prone. We all know that. But he's never played fewer games than he did last season. He only played two games. And everybody's, you know, kind of, it's the same joke, right?

Like, how didn't they upgrade it back a position? I mean, he's, Ben Roethlisberger, 144, 71 and one as a starter. So you're going to get worse. This guy's amazing. So if he plays a bit more, you know, Pittsburgh has a pretty easy schedule. They lost only to good teams last year with the exception of the Jets. You know, I think that the things I think things could line up for them. I don't know if I buy them to win the AFC potentially, but I kind of do like this number.

So I love this pick. You know what the Steelers defense was ranked last season in DVOA? No. Second? Third. Third. Third. They played great on defense last year.

They have a veteran offensive line that is good. They have, you mentioned the depth they have at wide offensive line that is good they have you mentioned the depth they have at wide receiver juju smith james washington like they just they just make wide receivers all-stars drafted in the second round they drafted chase claypool they have two you know vance mcdonald and eric ebron and they have big ben and to your point about ben he heard everyone crap on him all season. He's fat. He's out of shape.

He can't play anymore. And he's heard that all offseason. And I think that will motivate him to come out this year and show everyone up. And to your point, they just win games every year. They win games every year. And they're going to continue to win this year. Again, if they can play defense at the same level, even if they go from third to seventh or eighth,

and Big Ben is 75% of himself, they're going to reach this win total. Remember, they played close with the Ravens twice last season with backup quarterbacks. This is a good football team. I feel like they're flying under the radar here. So I think 10 wins is, especially with some plus money here,

I'm with you totally on this one. All right, let's get to my last one here. It's very simple. I'm going to Bengals under five and a half wins. You look at, and we're going to discuss this all the time. We're going to go over the idea of where we are as a football

society right now, which is we're in the middle of COVID, okay? So the Bengals have a rookie quarterback who played in an offense specifically designed for him at LSU with every player getting drafted. That's not the case with the Bengals, right? They have to put him in a new offense. As much as he said, he said, Joe Burrow said, I studied my playbook. And his head coach was like, that's great and all, but you actually have to practice to know if you can do this. Like, his coach was like, you have to practice. They have a brand-new left tackle in Jonah Williams, who was out all season last year.

Is A.J. Green healthy? Is he not healthy? Who knows. The other wide receiver drafted in the second round as well. I mean, yeah, he could be good. We don't quite know um their defensive line is good sure but i mean how many teams are winning because they have good defensive tackles i don't know so i feel like they're still a year away from really competing

they could be good eventually but but not right now so i just think under five and a half is the play here i don't think it's very uh it's it's very commonplace for a team to go from 2 and 14 uh to 6 and 10 or better especially when you have the ravens and the steelers in that division this feels like a pretty well it is well to be fair it is if you have like an injured quarterback and you suck like the niners right who just missed garoppolo for a season but they're not in this place they have a rookie quarterback who has no offseason it's it's it's just not it's not good no it's not i'm i'm with you there uh that one feels pretty compelling to me uh i i don't i don't know how i how i wrote this down and decided i was

going to say it in public but for my final, because I am the least confident in it, I'm going to take Cleveland over eight and a half, Jeff. Am I a sucker or what? I mean, no, here I am buying the Browns over. I actually can't tell if I'm the public or not here because the Sharps actually, it seems like the Sharps weighed in on this and, and it, and the it got a little bit more expensive, but let me just stick to the basics here okay okay number one they're upgrading from maybe the worst head coach in the league

maybe one of the worst we've seen in a while to somebody else so let's assume that he's average let's assume kevin zafanski is average yeah last year they went six and ten and they had a really brutal schedule i mean six of their losses were new eng England, Tennessee, the Rams, 49ers, Seattle at Denver at Zona. And a lot of those games were pretty close. So last year it was people like us. And you're fortunately we're on the record telling people not to buy the Browns. Yeah. But this year I feel like I'm kind of buying them low.

I mean, buying them low to go nine and seven or better doesn't feel great. But look look they still have some of the best offensive personnel in the league like yeah they still have odell beckham who's who's still like not even entering he's still young like there's still room for him to grow they still have uh they they upgraded their offensive line hugely. Okay. They added the best tackle in the free agency class and Jack Conklin. They added a Jedrick Willis who you really liked in our draft previews. They added Austin Hooper. They add Bill Callahan,

who's a great offensive line coach. That unit should just be a lot better. And look, here's the other big point for them. Have you read one story about Baker Mayfield nope or odell beckham or miles garrett who last year turned into this like massive crisis for their team we haven't heard anything about that so hopefully that's a sign of a culture change the bengals aren't going to be great you know i i don't know if you know how it's going to be for baltimore maybe they'll go 14 and

2 maybe they'll just be 11 and five. Yeah. There's some opportunity here. So I, I guess I'm saying the Browns are going to be a playoff team. I don't know how I feel about it. You know, I, I'm with you here on the Browns being over eight and a half wins, but the issue is that I also took the Steelers over and, well, I mean, you took the Steelers over and the Ravens over. So in taking that, that's the, you know, the Browns are going one and three against those teams right and that makes it hard in my opinion to get to those nine games I know but

you're right Bill Callahan offensive line coach is a fantastic everywhere he goes the offensive line improves yep it comes down to Baker Mayfield is he gonna adapt this to fancy system which is look it's quarterback friendly, okay? It's Kubiak's system. It's Shanahan's system. It is run the ball with Nick Chubb, and it's play-action pass, right? It's limited reads. It's, you know, fake the handoff, look right here.

If he's not open, you hit this guy. It's boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. They're a very talented team. They should win over eight and a half games. If I was betting this number, I would bet over. I think nine wins is probably max. But if I'm looking at the number, I think nine is the way to go. I think that with the talent they have in Mayfield, it can't be any worse.

They have opportunity to win nine games. Again, I'm stacking up too many wins in this division. You don't see many divisions with three or four. The West last season, you don't see many divisions with with three or you know i mean that you know the west last season you know in the in the end it just you don't see you know this many wins in the division so i would take i would take this um one of one of these teams is going to have some stroke of bad luck it knowing that it's cleveland it's probably them but on paper they're a great team like if this were the green if this were if they switch rosters with green bay we'd probably like them more.

But it's Cleveland, so here we are. So getting to our prop bet before we get out of here, I'm looking at AP Comeback Player of the Year. And I don't – oh, are you going there too? No, no. I thought about it though. I'm curious to know. Well, I think it's going to be Matt Stafford plus 700.

I love that. That's great. You could take Big Ben plus 300, but I feel like the value is not there because that feels like kind of the obvious choice. If I think the Lions are going over six and a half, seven wins, Matt Stafford, all he does is throw the ball for one bazillion yards every single season. Right? I mean, like 4600 4900 5000 4400 and now if he's healthy for 16 games in an offense that's more they're more aggressive offense they're more play action pass oriented he throws the ball very deep on first downs he

i think the number one average depth of target on first downs which play action pass um he's gonna put up near 5,000 yards. And so I think this is a good bet. Now, the only caveat for this bet is that you really, in my opinion, you can't be like 5 and 11 and win this, right? Like you have to get to 8 and 8, 9 and 10, like being the playoff line. I'm not sure the lines are that good quite yet, but the value here at plus 700 is a lot better than taking big ben at plus

300 or gronk and put gronk's not going to be the comeback player he's not going to not plus 600 alex smith plus 1600 it's not going to happen as well cam noon plus 200 maybe but i don't like the value there's no value here at stafford plus 700 for a guy that might throw for 5 000 yards is really worth it yeah i i think so. That's a good pick. I like Roethlisberger. I actually considered, that's why I was laughing, Roethlisberger to be a possibly good bet there. But I'm going to give you this one, Jeff. What if I told you that the sixth leading rusher from last year was plus 2,400 to win the rushing title this year. Would you say that's pretty good odds?

Yeah, which guy are we talking about? What if I told you he only played 15 games? And in a lot of the games, they took him out early because they didn't want to put any extra miles on his legs. Is this sounding good? Is this sounds like something you would want to hear a little bit more about? It is, yes. Is this sounding good? Is this sounds like something you would want to hear a little bit more about?

It is. Yes. Give me plus 2400 Lamar Jackson to win the rushing title this season. So they have him. I'm going to pull this up because his odds are really low. And he truly was the sixth leading rusher last season. Now, doesn't it feel a little bit like if he starts to run away with that lead that they might make a little bit of a statement if you're buying your narrative of like they might go 14 and 2 they might go undefeated which is what people seem to think if you're buying into that doesn't it make

sense that lamar jackson could potentially lead the league rushing it's never been done before it feels like that feels like the kind of thing the coach Harbaugh and the Ravens like might care about weirdly. You know, I don't know. I feel like it's kind of worth a dart. I like the dart toss here. The one concern I have is that I think they're going to try to pass the ball more this season. And because that's been their Achilles heel in the playoffs and the rush attempts just might not be there like they were last season I think if they were going to run the offense back the same as before this is a really good bet because like you said you know they might try to prove to people that you know they're better than they were last year which he won the MVP so I just think that the only concern for me is that fact is

that hey you know, is he going to, is he going to pass the ball more? This is an attempt to get ready for the playoffs. It's very possible. I mean, I will say this, it feels like there's,

you know, I would like to bet on a guy who's going to be on the field every single play. You know, I think with there, there are some other contenders for this that i think are pretty interesting dalvin cook plus 1400 in a contract year i really like um there josh jacobs is potentially one behind a really good offensive line um but i don't know there's some first of all

it'd be insanely fun to root for lamar jackson to win the rushing title but he can also get you like 250 yards in a game on five attempts like it's possible oh it was a beginning season last year like my he was like at the dolphins like eight for eight for 400 yards um so lamar jackson is the only player i can remember in the last couple years i've been doing this that made me eat my words like i really don't like i don't think there's been a guy that, like, he made me completely eat my words. All right, let's recap here just so we have this before we wrap up. I have Baltimore over 11 and a half.

I have Green Bay under nine. Detroit over six and a half. And Cincinnati under five and a half. Matt, you have the Bears under eight and a half. Love this. The Vikings under nine. Pittsburgh over nine and a half. Enjoy that one as5. Love this. The Vikings under 9. Pittsburgh over 9.5. Enjoy that one as well.

And Cleveland over 8.5. We also have, obviously, the prop bet that we just gave you guys. All right, Matt. This makes me feel good about football. We got something happening in the NFL side. I feel very good about the season starting on time. I hope so, man. I'm glad to get these divisions out of the way.

It felt like I didn't have a ton of conviction over these so are we doing the south next is that the next one up yeah whatever yeah you call it the afc south but titans fans are gonna be happy with my prediction they're titans fans the whiniest bunch of fans i've ever met on the internet so i'm sure they'll enjoy i'm sure they'll enjoy uh what we have coming for them all right everyone have a great weekend it's was nice having Matt back. Appreciate all the comments, the support. Please rate, review, subscribe. Really appreciate it.

Back next week, more NFL news. We're doing a good job. Keep it up, NFL players. I appreciate it. I want to watch the football. I know Matt does as well. Everyone does. Keep doing what you have to do to stay healthy. All right, guys. Have a great weekend. Take care, everybody.