Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - QB Rankings and Early Futures Bets

Episode Date: July 13, 2021

Geoff is joined by Matt Ford to finally put an end to the Aaron Rodgers offseason drama. Then they delve into ESPN's top 10 QB rankings and their favorite futures bets - including some fun props on Dak Prescott. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Tuesday, July 13th. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford and this is Jeff Schwartz of Smart on You. This week we're going to make some predictions about the 2021 season. But first, it's time to talk about Aaron Rodgers, quarterback rankings, and more with my guy Matt Ford. Matt, welcome back. It's been a couple of weeks since we had the show. I'm glad to see you again. But when I think about July 4th, and more specifically my birthday, July 11th, don't say happy birthday to me. It was a great birthday because almost no one texted me. It was great.

I didn't have to answer any text messages. But it's that football is coming. My birthday has always signified to me that football is near. And Matt, as of recording this, I believe we're eight days away from the Dallas Cowboys reporting to training camp. Football is coming, buddy. Well, there's your birthday present um although nick our producer actually did send you a real birthday present uh that we were very proud of bagels and locks from h&m in new york um h&h h&h i'm sorry sorry we didn't send you a romper. Even though a romper might have been appreciated as well.

Very comfortable. Very light in the summer down in North Carolina. It would have been nice. But no, it was glorious. I had the rest of it today because I had some – it was glorious. Bagel and lox to me is the perfect breakfast. It's better than cake in my opinion. I'd rather have that than eat cake.

Similar caloric content um but i agree i i love a good bagel man i i'm getting more and more into them as as i age they become more of a delicacy uh they're i'm surrounded by them all the time here in new york but uh yeah they're they're the best i'm actually i actually heard the best ones are in la um i'm going out there in a few weeks have you heard of this place there's the new york times said the best bagels are in la and like new york flipped out does anyone know what i'm talking maybe our producers i don't think that's actually possible um for that to be the case i mean same there's article the other day it said portland has the best pizza and yeah well that's just horseshit yeah so yeah so some of these articles need to just you just stop being so horseshit as said, and get with a New York bagel. But, I mean, look, there are a few places in Los Angeles that I enjoy going to when I go back home for bagels.

But nothing beats a New York. I think it's part of the experience in New York, right? You're walking somewhere. It's either miserably cold or miserably hot. It feels like there's no in between in manhattan and you stand in line for your bagel and it just it's just you eat on the go it just tastes delicious yeah it's the best i think the one i'm thinking of in la is called courage bagels uh hit me up in the uh on on the twitters if uh if you've if you've been there and recommend it um but yeah enough bagels jeff why don't we get to this goddamn Aaron Rodgers guy

for the millionth time? And I think the last time. Is that, are you ready to go? I think I am. And we saw Rodgers, and you can get into specifics, but just, you know, he's been now a little bit on television the last couple of days with the match. And I think he played the AAC, right?

He played that championship in Tahoe as well. By the way, I'm terrible at golf. I golfed this weekend with my brother, past weekend. It was awful. I suck at it. But I feel like if we could get the podcast to go to that tournament in Tahoe next year, it would be a huge win for us. We've got to find a way to get our podcast into that tournament.

So if anyone's listening who is part of that i think it's the aac championship in tahoe with all the celebrities i suck at golf but i will have fun i will enjoy myself and i will make comments like aaron rogers does to help us talk about other podcast segments yeah it's funny i connor mcgregor fought this weekend and i was reading this today and i was like this kind of feels like connor mcgregoror this Aaron Rodgers thing where it's just like all this yapping and then at the end of the day like are you going to deliver and Aaron Rodgers is the MVP so he's he's not quite Conor McGregor just yet but enough uh setting up the table here uh over the weekend in in one of his many public appearances uh the part-time golfer and tv host Aaron Rodgers said I'm going to enjoy the hell out of this week

and then I'm going to get the hell out of this week. And then I'm going to get back to working out and figure things out in a couple weeks. Now, everyone sort of decoded that as saying, well, hey, training camp starts July 27th for the Packers. So is this it, Jeff? Are we done? Was this just like a giant waste of oxygen? Like we sort of have been predicting for months that Aaron Rodgers is just going to come back and nothing will have ever happened is that is that where we're headed that's exactly where we're headed if you listen to him talk whether he talked at the match or whether he talked at this tournament or anyone else he seems kind of resigned to the fact that he's coming back if you listen to the way he's talking about it and the way he's he's kind of approaching these questions it's very

clear he knows he's coming back. And we've laid out all the reasons why, okay? First and foremost, he doesn't have leverage. The Packers do not need to trade him. We keep going over this, right, guys? And the reasons why are plentiful. One is that they have his contract, right? So if he doesn't want to play this year, then he doesn't have to play,

but they still own his contract for the next couple of years. Two, the packers have already already allocated that caps that cap space this year and next year really for his deal right like they they're if they trade him now there really is no benefit for this season other than maybe let's say jerry judy they get but all for next season in the years past they have a team now they believe can win a championship of aaron rogers is there. And that's why they want him to play. And as much as he might not want to be there and he is upset with the front office, there is no leverage.

Secondly, I think we've approached this place a little bit more lately, is that the ego of Aaron Rodgers is not going to let him sit out. I just don't think so, right? We joked about Florio saying he was going to opt out July 2nd for COVID. He would have pocketed $18 million. There was no whiff of that happening, right? If he sits out and Jordan Love plays well, that is a shot to his ego, right? That's a shot to us talking about him.

Oh, they don't need Rodgers. They don't need him. I'm not sure he wants to play that game. Third, I think his teammates are saying hey man look look buddy you made your point we get it but we want to win a championship right i mean david bach jari their left tackles come back off injury i'm sure he's telling like aaron look man i'm getting older i want to win a title dude like come back hang out with the team let's focus all together and let's win a title, dude. Like, come back, hang out with the team, let's focus all together, and let's win a championship, right? Devonta Adams, does he really want Jordan Love to throw a team? No, he's telling everyone, Aaron, come back, be a Packer,

let's win this championship together. So those are always why I think he's coming back. And whether he does, he comes back the first day of camp, Matt, or the third, or week into camp, I feel very confident, I've said this from the beginning. He will start under center week one for the Packers. I got to say, this is one we've been on. We've been on this for a long time,

saying that even if he really wanted to get out, there weren't a ton of options. Even if the draft thing happened a little bit too late. You mentioned Devontae Adams. That's the tea leaves here. If Devontaeams doesn't make some big statement about how he's not showing up to camp uh that's when i'd start to panic davante adams contract year uh you know coming off a season where what did he have 17 touchdowns or

something in in 15 games it was some crazy number that i wish i had actually prepared but uh he's he's got his whole career is on the line, basically, if Aaron Rodgers comes back this season or not. You mentioned Bakhtiari. And look, Rodgers, like, you said it. Like, his ego, his public opinion matters. If he wants to really be the host of Jeopardy, like, you can't be considered a total a-hole

who quits on your teammates. So I really think 18 touchdowns in 15 games. Thanks, Hank, for the the Fonte Adams last season, prolific fantasy output. But yeah, I just, I just don't think that at this point he's got a ton of options. Tom Brady said that at one of the random promotional things said that he made a joke about Rogers hating his boss and having no options. And you saw Rogers's soul just kind of like leave his body because he got singed by the corniest dude of all time on television and other reasons. But look, I think now if you can get the Packers for some good value for the division or for the conference or any, you know, Devontae Adams over and touchdowns, if there are tasty numbers right now, like get them while you can.

Like this is how this is going to go. Yeah, we bought it from the start because I think we figured out that, you can. This is how this is going to go. Yeah, we bought it from the start because I think we figured out that this is how this kind of plays out. I will say, what's going to bother me about this in the end is Packers fans are going to say this was never serious. The media made too much of Adam Schefter's report, Ian Rapport's report, everyone else. He 100% wants out, guys.

I believe he does. But we have contracts we sign, right? And you can't just get out of your deal. And you have to have a certain type of... Carlson Palmer did this to the Bengals. It's the freaking Bengals, right? It's not the Packers who just went to two straight

NFC Championship games. The difference between a player... Eli Manning not wanting to go play for the Chargers who at that point were not very successful, right? This is the Packers we're talking about. We're not talking about a bum franchise, a bum organization, bum teammates,

terrible coach. I mean, isn't LaFleur like 26-6 in the regular season now? He has two seasons there. Like, we're talking about a team that wins and for him to want to get out, it puts, to your point, a stain on his legacy. I don't think he's willing to go through that right now. Yeah. And he's got a contract where it's a little easier to get out of next year in terms of the guaranteed money and all that stuff.

This year, there's a big escalation of pay. So, look, maybe it's next year. I think this sort of happened with Russell Wilson, too. We're going to see this in the NBA a lot. I know this isn't that kind of podcast, but we're going to see that with the players who sort of like coordinate their breakups through the media. And at some point you just kind of forget like why,

who's mad at who. And it's just like, oh yeah, they don't like each other. Like, you know, Aaron Rodgers is going to figure out his way out of there and go quarterback, you know, the Washington football team next year or something. It's funny you say that because people will point to the NBA and talk about how James Harden forced his way out of there and go quarterback, you know, the Washington football team next year or something. It's funny you say that because people will point to the NBA and talk about how James Harden forced his way out. But if you remember, right, the Rockets were kind of going nowhere. And Harden was actively tanking.

He wasn't playing very well. You're not going to see many players on Sunday actively tank, Matt, because they're going to get themselves hurt. You know, the contract situation, our career is so short that if you play poorly for four games, A, you're not going to be as tradable, but B, that gets held against you in any contract negotiation. Like, they're not going to say, oh, Rodgers just didn't play hard for four weeks.

No, no, no, no. Plus your teammates are counting on you and whatnot. So the NBA, yes, we'll have more player movement. We're at the point now where possibly Dame Lillard's on the move in Portland and whatnot. But you don't see that in the

nfl for those reasons yeah well the other thing that that that was true of james harden not to belabor this point was that owner the owner of the rackets was in some financial trouble right like you could see this happen with damian lillard and you'll see this happen with other star players where it's like i mean you saw this happen in new england with belichick and brady where it's sometimes the owner just steps in and just goes like guys we're not getting rid of you know damian lillard or whatever and in the packers case we we don't really understand the impact of the no owner thing um maybe it's helped maybe it's hurt like it's a little unclear um but i don't know it's been a fascinating thing i agree this was not nothing the fact that you

could tell it was aaron rogers who coordinated this blitz on draft night, like it's so clear where the leak came from. You know, it means it's something for this season. Like, you know, if you're, if you were long on the Packers a few weeks and months ago, like it may end up working out in your favor, but at the end of the day, it just seems clear Rodgers is going to come back. So speaking of quarterbacks, we were all passing around an article on the Jeff Schwartz is smarter than us group thread. It's a very good iMessage thread. I wish you all could see it each week. It's got good takes in it. This week, we're all kicking around an article about ESPN's top 10 quarterback rankings. There's so many ways we could take this at the risk of blowing up ESPN's top 10 quarterback rankings. There's so many ways we could take this, uh, at the risk of

blowing up ESPN's paywall. I think they can afford it. Um, the top 10 were Mahomes, Rogers, Brady, Wilson, Allen, Stafford, Dak, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Kyler Murray in the top 10. Um, I don't want to like necessarily like go through this article and debunk all the points or whatever. I'm just really curious, like Jeff for a league that's so stacked with quarterbacks i'm looking at this list and i'm going okay the fifth best quarterback of the league is josh allen that's like really that's that's where we are like i kind of agree with it stafford feels a little bit high to me but i'm just kind of curious like is there anyone on that list after wilson who you like feel very confident in week to week like it feels a little bit off to me well the couple of players

really one player that's omitted is deshaun watson right it's deshaun watson um you know deshaun watson's probably four on this list right which pushes everyone back down a rung right it puts russ at five and josh allen at Josh Allen at six now and Stafford at seven. These lists are a lot of fun for us to talk about, right? They're great for radio. They're great for what we do. But I don't think anyone

who participates in this list actually watches much of the game. I don't. These lists sometimes are so shocking to me with where guys end up. Pat Mahomes this year got less of a percent of the first place votes

than he had last year. I'm not sure how you can watch a season and say that Mahomes was worse than he was last year. I mean, I guess Rodgers won the MVP, so maybe people are leaning to him. But every team in the NFL would take Pat Mahomes as their quarterback now, right, for the future of their franchise. They would take Pat over everyone. He's easily number one.

I think Rodgers, I agree, is two too i mean is brady the third best quarterback you might be on the third best team or the first best team but i mean he's the third best quarterback i'll put would you put russ and deshaun watson ahead of him i yes i think i mean this is sort of like not to go back to basketball again but it's like lebron and basketball it It's like, how do you value Tom Brady adequately at this point? Like in the NFC championship, he was better than Rodgers. Like granted, he had better weapons and better protection and all that, but he was the best quarterback on the field. I would probably keep him there. I feel like the top four are right. I actually, you know, I think number five, Allen is probably right. I think from there, I would put Lamar Jackson, who is a starter is 30 and seven and his lead receiver last year outside of Andrews was what Willie Sneed, like not a super dynamic offense around him uh but he makes them you know that super bowl contender every year um and then from there i it's just like you know matthew stafford man like i what are we missing here like what i don't what is this that's the one that's that stands out i think is the is the mistake here i think that even someone even had staffer as high as like two or three in their

rankings um i think people are very excited for him to be in this McVay offense. I know they are as well. But he has not played this well in a long time to be the sixth best quarterback in the NFL. So this is, Matt, feels like a projection on what they hope he can be this season. But that's not what he is now. No one would draft him, if you took a draft in the quarterbacks,

no one would take him sixth in the NFL right now. So, and you can, obviously that's not terribly fair because someone might take a younger player like, you know, a Dak or a Herbert or, you know, Kyler or, you know, a Burrow instead of him because they're younger. But nonetheless, I just don't see it, man. I feel like this is a projection of people hoping it goes

well with Sean McVay and we saw it go well with Jared Goff and people just automatically assume hey well with Goff it should go well with with Stafford and it might certainly go well but to put him sixth right now again I think out of all the guys in this list that's a projection on what they hope he can be at the end of the season. While the other guys I think are pretty much ranked where they are now. The Stafford one stands out as, Hey, this is our projection for this season. Yeah. Look, no playoff wins in 12 seasons in Detroit.

Not all his faults did have, you know, one of the five best receivers of all time for some of that. Um, I, I don't get it. Uh, we'll see with him. I think that he's going to be put in a position to succeed and he'll do well. And he'll be the, he'll be the Rorschach test of, you know, everybody who likes him will say, see, and everyone who thinks he sucks will be like, yeah, see, like, look how good everyone else is. Look, you know, cam makers and those receivers, like, look how good they are. I think it's really interesting. Like who's not on this list anymore. Obviously breeze is gone. You know,

Philip rivers is gone. Kirk cousins isn't on this list. Like it's, there are guys who are either like in their early twenties, like obviously my homes and Josh Allen allen and herbert and murray and you know there's i think you know dac is in his 20s either tannahill's probably belongs on here but then you've still got like rogers and brady you know touching 40 or over yeah like there's going to be a real reset rothlisberger not on this list anymore obviously like we're going through this really interesting time and then we have all these these really interesting like genuinely interesting rookie quarterbacks like Lawrence and Wilson and Fields among them like there is going to be a

massive changing of the guard soon but I think we can both agree the biggest omission here was Ryan Fitzpatrick like what are we doing what list exists without Ryan Fitzpatrick in the top 10 what are we doing here how confident are you and I was talking to some people this weekend I was down at O-line masterminds this large you know seminar we have for offensive linemen and I was talking to someone it wasn't a player it was a media member who was pretty high in Washington of the idea that look if Fitz is just average like because Washington was so balanced to that position Fitz is average that team might win the NFC East. Yeah, we'll touch on them a little bit later.

And some of the things we like. But I do think that, yeah, that's accurate. And by the way, last year, super young team, lots of new faces last season with no training camp. I think Murray might be a little bit high here at 10. I agree. I think at the end of the year, there could be Mahomes, Rogers, and then some form of Brady, Watson if he plays,

Russ and Dak will be the next four at the end of the season. I know Josh Allen's not up there, but I think Dak's going to have a huge season. And that will be, there's something we'll go over with our favorite props, three of them, right, as we head into training camp very soon that I like. Part of that is going to be Dak Prescott heavy. Yeah, I'm not going to disagree with you there. I think I would probably, you might think I'm crazy here.

I think it's probably time to put Baker Mayfield at number 10 here. I would rather have him than Kyler Murray for a few reasons. I think he brings something to the table as a competitor that not a lot of other quarterbacks, including Stafford, on this list do. competitor that um not a lot of other quarterbacks including stafford on this list do um i don't know mayfield has has charged a moribund franchise there at cleveland's and he's got a lot of physical tools i i i think he's flying under the radar a little bit so it's what's pretty interesting about about baker a conversation i ran across today on on twitter um if you guys follow chris browns that's smart football he's a very good follow um he was talking to you about this kind of mcveigh shanahan system and he was asking

like who have they developed as young quarterbacks um and it really it it hasn't been many elite guys right shanahan has best season with matt with matt r, right? Shanahan had his best season with Matt Ryan so far, right? That was his best statistical year, but Matt Ryan was an established pro. Jared Goff had some good seasons, but I mean, he's the only one I think thought he was elite at any point. And Baker Mayfield plays in the same offense. And this is why, and we have plenty of time to discuss this. The Browns are kind of stuck. They have to pay Baker Mayfield.

But Matt, and people disagree with me on this. I was, again, I was this weekend talking to people about this you know i just don't buy him being if he's in the top 10 it's a product of his offense more than like a product of his actual skill he brings that offense if that makes sense yeah i i could i could probably buy that. I still think he belongs, though. I mean, when you just look at the other guys on this list, I would rather have him than Stafford, certainly. I think I'd rather have him than Murray. I think it's funny. I mean, we've talked about this topic for a while, so we'll move on. But I will say, like, there's this sort of prototype in your head of like, well, what is a great quarterback look like? And, you know the first five off of this list it's like matt ryan derrick carr tannahill you know cousins mayfield it's like these are like i don't know they're they're very good but i don't know i can't tell if we're like in a boom of quarterback talent or if we're kind of like in a normal scenario where everyone's like kind of good

and there's just a lot of like i don't know the game's just really opened up and it's easier to succeed. It's an interesting time to think about this. It is. And that's something that I think people have thought about and will continue to think about, like, as we get closer to, you know, to the season and really after the season. I think there's people that are already thinking about that as we get closer to the season.

Yeah, definitely. So as we move on through to the end of this show, two things I want to do left. And these are what you call July football segments, Jeff. We are deep in the summer. Everything is all theoretical. We're having fun. We're thinking about what's going to happen in a few months from now. For the next couple weeks, we'll come back to this it's never too early to start making your futures

bets um i like to think i that i'm better at futures bets than i am that at certainly a week to week in game bets so i spent a lot of time thinking about these so why don't we start this this week jeff why don't we give each other a few that we're gonna like i think the other needs to give us the other permission to whether they should actually put these bets in um this could be a little bit of a shark tank scenario okay uh so jeff why don't you lead us off do you have a bet that you uh you want to bring to the table today so um i i saw a dak prescott comeback player of the year plus 170. That feels like a lock. I mean, I don't know what the number was beforehand, but you get plus money here.

My book limited it to only $25. I try to put more on it. I think it kind of tells you where they're feeling this is going. I mean, who is going to beat him for comeback player of the year? There's no Alex Smith. I mean, Dak's going to win 9 or 10 games and play well, I'd imagine. imagine I I don't know who's gonna take Joe Burrow ain't taking that role from him I don't know who else is gonna this feels like a slam dunk to me that's my favorite one I mean you say it and I was I wanted to like have some sort of comeback and it's just like yeah it does make sense it's like

sure Saquon or Christian McCaffrey um could make some sense but like you know they're not going to give it to i don't know odell beckham or ezekiel elliott like somebody who like just kind of had a down year you know what i mean like it really comes down to who came over came the most you know setbacks to yeah but you don't think about it too is that what what type of year would barkley have to have or McCaffrey have to have to be better than Dak? We consider that Dak is probably winning the division, I would imagine.

We could get into that another time, I would imagine. But like, I just don't know if they can do enough to be better than Dak to win that award. Yeah. I see it, bet MGM plus 180 for Prescott. That feels like an, I i mean the only way that doesn't happen is if he's just not healthy um yeah and you know if barkley or mcafree has one of those seasons that like sets an all-time record so you've got my blessing on that one jeff uh

by all means fire away um let me start with one for for you that uh i am pretty sure i will not be getting your blessing on um give me one second to pull this up i just lost my tab okay here we go i'm just actually i'll start with this one uh the patriots to make the playoffs at plus 145 so betting teams to make the playoffs is one of my most favorite things to bet it's super fun to track all season and you know seven teams in each conference you know there's a good chance uh no matter what happens to your to your team as long as they have a decent year uh remember that two years ago before all those opt-outs including dante hightower the pats were the number one defense in 2019 they went out there they spent a ton of dough on pass catching tight ends they drafted mac jones in

the first round they picked up nelson agalor who you know feels like one of those guys the patriots are going to turn into something and jeff that's bill belichick like let's i mean let's just be honest like is he going to have a down year after tom brady just won the super bowl number one and number two are we sure buffalo is going to be able to have a season like that again where they're going to just completely shut out the rest of the division i am not sure that they will and we'll talk about that another day too but patriots at plus almost 150 to make the playoffs just feels like an easy one plus 150 make the playoffs when you look at the afc right you have you have i think you know, Browns, Ravens, that's two, right, that I feel good about.

Chiefs, obviously. I think the Bills will make the playoffs. That's four. One of the Colts or Titans, that's five. So now you're left with, you know, another Colts and Titans at six, right, whoever the sixth team is. I know the Steelers are going to feel that way. I'm going to get to the Steelers in a second.

Chargers are going to feel that, you know, they should be in the playoff. And the Raiders are going to feel that way. I'm going to get the Steelers in second. Chargers are going to feel that they should be in the playoff, and the Raiders are going to feel that way as well. I don't think the Raiders have a chance. But, yeah, I mean, Dolphins are going to feel that way as well. Okay, I could buy the value there. I love to see that, you know, and we obviously can't do this, is going back to three months ago, what these were, really after the draft, right?

Because the draft is reset. Yeah, I like that. And you get plus money there because my next one is along the same lines. You lay a little bit of money here. Steelers, no playoffs, minus 200. Wow. So remember last year, I was-

Minus 200. I know. I was very high on the Steelers last season, if you recall. I was one of the first to come out national pundits i hate saying i'm in the media but i guess that's my job i better get used to it um to say hey look if there's a team to knock off the chiefs it's pittsburgh right they were turning big big ben returning the defense, and they obviously started fast last year. But Matt, how many quarterbacks at Big Ben's age,

as we see the physical decline, pop back up and become good again? People argue Tom Brady in New England. Remember, Tom Brady in New England physically was fine. He had no one to throw to. That wasn't the problem. And so now we have Big Ben sliding down the backside of his career we have an oc matt can who doesn't really match up with big ben as i think good at they return possibly only one offensive line starter so they have to rebuild their entire offensive line defensively they're

going to be fine i mean they're fine right i mean will it be number one two three four they'll be the top 10 somewhere but you have a Brown team that's much better. You have a Ravens team that just wins a ton of regular season games. The Bengals should be a little spicier in division. Matt, I don't think the Steelers are making the playoffs. I think the – I just – I know that they've – Tomlin has been over 500 every – at least 500, at least, every year of his career there.

He's a fabulous coach. I think this is a year they take a backslide, Big Ben's gone, they bring a quarterback in, and they kind of rebuild for the future. I think your logic is solid. It's just not a bet I would make. A, the juice feels a little heavy to me for a team that could easily...

I mean, remember, what were they last year? 11-0 to start the season? 11-12, yeah. I mean, they came out guns blazing. easily i mean remember what were they last year 11 and 0 to start the season yeah they i mean they came out guns blazing roethlisberger still has it when you know when he's healthy which is never that defense just always is solid i their floor is high right like they i guess they could just totally bottom out but it just feels like they have too many pieces on that offense i know that you're not big into naji harris and running backs in general but they have

a lot of talent there um the offensive line and you mentioned is a mess i don't know what's their force i mean with with this wacky 17 what game season seven wins well they're they're i think their total was eight and a half yeah so, so, you know, they're somewhere around there. I think, I don't know. I would hold back on that one personally, but I could see why you'd make it. I'll caution you, but not stop you. How's that? Okay, there we go.

All right. This one, you're going to definitely stop me, but I might fire anyway. So you mentioned teams that are on the fringe in the AFC, and you mentioned this team, the Las Vegas Raiders. To make the playoffs, Jeff, listen to this number. Plus 350 is what you're getting for the Raiders to make the playoffs right now. That to me is overinflated.

It's sort of the same argument with the Patriots right now. Everyone's down on the Raiders. The Raiders, sure, sure they're the raiders but they won eight games last year they moved to a new city that stadium is going to have one of the top home field advantages in the entire nfl this is like you know it's a city that's been dying for a team they have the stadium that's been sitting there these people bought season tickets a year ago they are going to be fired up to go and root for their team uh everyone you know remember last year the raiders were six and three the year before that they were six and four they crumbled down the stretch derrick carr you know he's playing potentially for an extension this year next year or something like that i think i think they have enough ingredients to be a kind of good team.

For plus 350, I just think that the value is there. I'm trying to find it. But Gruden is like under 400 as a coach, under 40%. We're under 40% win percentage in December. Like, his teams get worse throughout the season. And it's pretty tough for me to buy a team in that division that gets worse throughout the season. I'm with you that they're going to have a home field advantage.

And that's something that, by the way, is going to have to be discussed as we approach the season. You know, look at the Chargers, for example. Justin Herbert played with no fans last season in his away games um i'm very curious to see how that changes um you know this is oh yeah hank putting a good on gruden's teams are just 31 and 45 in december uh and january yeah it's 41 percent yeah 15 and 23 with the raiders. Like that, that's just, so I just, I don't, I just don't buy them. I'd rather take the Chargers in that division, the Chiefs obviously in that division, and

the Broncos if they get, if they get Roger, which I think is unlikely. Stick with the Chiefs though. So there's, I wrote down four bets for the Chiefs, okay? That I think the Chiefs, if everyone's healthy, look, I mean, it's very easy to say that this is easy for them. I get that. But if they're healthy, all right, make the playoffs minus 1,200. We're not doing that, right? That's too much juice if Mahomes gets hurt, right?

Like, that's not going to happen. Okay. The AFC, to win their division, minus 250. I mean, I think it's actually a decent wager, right? You bet 250 to win 100 i mean again you're you're just if an injury happens you're screwed but that's it's right yep afc champion plus 250 and super bowl champion plus 400 those don't feel like the value there's anymore right i mean this was much higher in before they redid their offensive line i think those are the

right bets to make i think out of all four of those, you know, I think champ and Superbowl are the way to go, but AFC division minus two 50. You don't like laying juice. I've done a little bit sometimes every now and then that feels like the best one to go with is a vision bet. Cause again,

the value on champion and Superbowl are not quite there. Plus if the chiefs lose a game or two you might get that better odds throughout the season especially if someone like buffalo or or cleveland start fast you might get champ and super bowl odds better during the season um so i i think division minus 250 matt um if i were to go with the chiefs prop or they're over win total uh i think 12 and a half which is a shit ton of wins uh that might be even better they're over the win total it's funny i feel like with the chiefs we're in sort of uncharted territory i mean my home said that thing about maybe having a perfect season like it sounds

like they're motivated um to potentially go out there and you know win a bunch of games like after you know the run that they've had of you know almost super bowl super bowl win super bowl loss it gets pretty hard to like beat denver in denver in the middle of october when you're six and oh and they're one and four and their season's on the line you know what i mean like those games get kind of harder and harder to win so i would be a little bit worried about betting them for anything in the regular season as a result of that, because, you know, they could just, just not be able to get up for these games anymore. And you mentioned the injuries, like Mahomes, isn't the only one like Tyree kill.

If he goes down, like we've talked about how thin that receiving core is Kelsey's same thing. I will say, I do have a chief Superbowl bet in that I put in in in March at plus 485. I think the winning the conference one isn't bad. You know, you look at the other contenders there, Buffalo, Baltimore, Cleveland, Tennessee are the next four. I'm not scared of any of those teams. Buffalo, you know, potentially the outlier there. I think you could get pretty good value there. I don't like, you know, putting a bunch, bunch of money down with the futures bet. You got any more?

I got one more. Okay. I, my, my, my last one here is going to be the 49ers under 10 wins. This is a team that I just don't, I just don't understand why everyone is just like penciling them into the

NFC championship. I swear we've talked about this on the show before uh or maybe just heatedly over group texts but look every year the 49ers are one of the most hurt teams in the league we don't know what their situation is a quarterback uh their defense we're just sort of assuming that nick bose is going to come back and everything's going to be okay even though there's a ton of problems in the secondary and they lost their defensive coordinator they're playing in a division with russell wilson who's going to be okay, even though there's a ton of problems in the secondary and they lost their defensive coordinator. They're playing in a division with Russell Wilson, who's trying to get out of Seattle. The Rams, you know, Stafford, whatever.

They're still going to be a tough team along with the Cardinals. I just I don't know, man. I think that you could get pretty good value. I think they're like plus 140 at the book I'm looking at for the under 10. And I like that one. That's pretty fascinating. I've been hiding that too. I think the value in that play is the under, right? Because everyone's going to pick, everyone's taking the over.

So, and we know often that in gambling, zagging sometimes works. You kind of have to eat it sometimes, but that's the way it works. Matt, I'm disappointed that neither of us, and I will choose this one later when we get we will do a draft for futures bets maybe we'll throw nick in here and hank and gabe uh as we go to season any tim tebow prop that you find that does not require him to play week one to be actionable you must not maybe you must bet the under in all those

so there's some sports books i'm not we're not partners with them i'm not going to name them where um you should 100 make those bets tim tebow everything under he's not playing this season he's not making the roster not scoring a touchdown he's not getting any receiving yards uh tim tebow under go to the bank with all those props i love that if you can find it godspeed you've got i know i know where some of them are at that are that are actionable um even if he doesn't play which obviously the limits on those are going to be low. But nonetheless, it's important. By the way, speaking of gambling, real quick, before we get to Matt Libs, a new segment that we're going to do.

So I've gambled on baseball every day this year, minus a couple of days. It's the break, right? The all-star break. Yep. I want to give myself a little bit of love here because I am shockingly doing not that terribly. And it's quite impressive.

Like baseball is really hard to be good at. I'm 150, 149 and six. I'm only down four units. It's pretty good. That's that dude for everyday baseball. That's freaking amazing. I post my pics daily at Jeff Schwartz on Instagram, Jeff with a G. There's a home run derby tonight.

I'm not gambling on that. And one more baseball gripe, okay? Why is a derby on at 8 p.m. Eastern? Like, my kids can't watch the freaking derby because you put it on so late at night. Why is – baseball doesn't want there to be fans., why is baseball? Doesn't want there to be fans. I swear to God, they don't want there to be fans. Like,

why is it at eight o'clock for, for, for, for what? For Dodger fans who don't care about baseball the entire season to watch the Dobry in Los Angeles. Is that why it's on at that time? Like,

I don't understand, man. I, I, there's so many new rules of baseball, like the double header rules and the extra innings rules. That's being changed. I just feel like I don't even know what baseball is anymore.

And meanwhile, we have like this guy, Otani. We're not the first people to talk about this. He's like doing unbelievable things and no one cares. Like Shohei Otani could walk in my apartment right now and I'd be alarmed because he's a stranger, but I would not know who he was. Like, I'm not kidding. He's incredible, right?

I mean, he's starting the all-star game at pitcher and batting first for the American League at DH. He had the most home runs over, I think, a 30-day stretch in AL history or something like that. The last 20 years, some crazy number like that. He hits moonshots, by the way. They aren't just like little dribblers that make it out. By the way, my Giants swept your Nationals. Ridiculous. Crazy number like that. He hits moonshots, by the way. They aren't just like little dribblers that make it out. By the way, my Giants swept your Nationals. Sorry about that.

And the Giants swept them wearing the ugliest jerseys of all time. That makes it even worse. I'm still coasting from that 19 title. If I learned anything, it's just let this thing ride. We'll see you in October. We'll see if we're still standing.

Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. That's cool. But with my wireless, I get unlimited for just $30. Impressive. But does yours have 5G included? Of course.

And my wireless saves me $400 a year. That's because you all have Xfinity Mobile with your internet. It's wireless so good, it keeps one-upping itself. $30 per line per month. Taxes and fees extra. Compares pricing of top carriers. Xfinity Internet required. Reduced speeds up to 20 gigabits of usage per line.

Most reliable based on RootMetrics UL's report. Results vary. Non-endorsement. Well, let's get to Matt Liz before we get out of here. A new segment here, Jeff. We were kicking around this idea of these open-ended statements where we sort of fill in the blanks, inspired by my time on Good Morning Football Whiteboard Wednesdays. But they're sort of like Mad Libs, but for copyright reasons, we're definitely not going to call them Mad Libs. So let's call them, I don't know, Mat Libs.

What do you think? Pretty good. That's why they paid you all that money on that show, man. That's it and it's still it's here on this podcast just commanding a massive financial windfall each episode in my talent fee uh jeff i've got six of these we'll see if we make it through all of them number one the rookie i'm most excited to watch this season is um justin fields a barrett's fans are super pumped about him, as they should be. And they've needed a quarterback their entire franchise history. This could be the guy that kind of gets this franchise back to where they want to be.

And I think he plays sooner or later. I've been very firm on that. And I think that if he's as good as everyone says he is, I'm excited to watch him play. He is plus a thousand right now for rookie of the year. If you remember, Justin Herbert didn't enter the season last year as a starter. And by the end of it, he ran away with rookie of the year.

I think he's a really, I think fields is a really good bet. That's an enormous market a star fan base for a quarterback a good team that has enough pieces in place he has like it it feels like how it felt when uh rg3 was a rookie and it was just like the right person in the right market with the right pieces the right coach um and just a city that was just like ready to fall head over heels in love. So I'm with you. Justin Fields was my pick for that one too. Number two, I'm betting, and this can be betting or not, but I'm betting blank takes a huge leap forward this season.

Well, Carson Wentz can't be any worse. So while I don't think he's going to be any more than average this year, I made that very clear. Being the worst quarterback to average is a huge jump in one season. So I'll go with Carson Wentz here. Again, I don't think he's going to be special this season. He can be eventually. But as far as making a huge jump going from worst to middle of the pack,

that's pretty big. I'll take Carson Wentz. I think that's a really interesting one. You could take, if you're buying that, Frank Wright, Coach of the Year, is an interesting play Carson Wentz I think that's a really interesting one uh you could take if you're buying that Frank Wright coach of the year is an interesting play if if he turns Wentz into a salvageable uh player and they run away with that division I that's a good one um I want a little homery for mine but I I hope none of my fantasy league opponents are listening to this because I'm betting that Antonio

Gibson takes a massive leap forward this season. Last season, the guy, the Washington football team running back averaged 4.7 yards per carry, seven yards a catch. And Jeff, he was a wide receiver at Memphis the year before. This is the first year where he'll have a full training camp.

He'll have a quarterback. And he's in an offense that, by the way, produced Christian McCaffrey two years before with Scott Turner. I think he is going to be a fantasy league winner this year. I'm buying all the Antonio Gibson stuff I can. And I think he's going to be awesome. Love it.

Love it. Next up, the most overrated team right now is. Dude, I'm looking at the odds when the super bowl this year it's chiefs bucks ravens bills are tied the niners rams packers um you made a case for the niners as being the overrated team that if you and i don't think they're that overrated. But if you look at those odds, the Niners probably shouldn't have better odds than the Browns. Now, however, part of this is calculating the Chiefs winning the AFC, right? So that's why the Browns' odds are so long compared to, let's say, the Rams.

But, Matt, I don't think there's an overrated team right now. I think you would feel the Niners, right? But I don't know if there's one that comes to mind as far as like wow we're supremely overrating that team huh i yeah the niners would be a pick um for me the team that i am actually going to go with uh for this one is the denver broncos um who seem to be getting a lot of buzz for reasons i don't totally understand everyone crapped all over teddy bridgewater all season and now they're like well he's going to turn that team around uh their their win total is eight and a half which is basically uh it's 500 um they were 5 and 11 last year von miller had eight sacks didn't force a single turnover they have 19 wide receivers and no

quarterback with melvin g Gordon as their offense. Their defense, I think we're just coasting off reputation. To me, they just seem like a team that will not matter at all. And they seem to be getting a little bit of playoff buzz. I'm fading the Broncos very hard. That's a good one. I mean, look, Vic Fangio is a great DC,

but again, offensively, you're right, right? Quarterback, they're just, they're not good. I just don't know. I guess people are hopeful they make that jump i'm with you here i'm the broncos are not gonna be very good um i'm going to skip ahead to our last one here because we're running out of time jeff kevin zeitler this weekend posted a video where he was doing past protection sets in the hospital while his wife was in labor to deliver a child i don't know if you saw these videos jeff but he was basically air blocking uh nobody in the hospital um my question jeff is meredith schwartz would blank if you were doing pass protection sets while she was in labor well okay a couple things here

one and i did see the video um i i labor can be long obviously she wasn't like actively pushing okay so like he was she was you know that's true process of of of labor um so at least he wasn't doing it wall like all right come on honey get you know push and then he's just off doing a pass it okay um so both times my wife went into pushing labor i was eating food downstairs she had to call me like yo it's it's go time come upstairs please um so i guess uh she would just be amused by it, man. I'll tell you what, the first kid we had was a longer delivery. I mean, it was like 10 hours or eight hours. Emerson went pretty fast.

And we watched his movie Bad Words with Jason Bateman. Hilarious movie. It's like music and movies, there's certain moments that i attach them to when i've seen when i kind of saw them movies i'm not a big movie theater guy so like i've seen movies like in other places like the airplane i have this devil wears prada story and bad words obviously music yeah that was probably it's a great movie i was forced to watch it's one of my like three favorite movies of all time it's like shawshank redemption and like devil wears prada pitch perfect like those are the three that's how we do it so um don't what is happening right now no those aren't the three i mean like you got to put

in there like what i don't know whatever moves on tbs on sundays oh those are all my favorites um but yeah i i think merith wouldn't care she would laugh at me what would you have so upset about your three favorite movies are shawshank pitchitch Perfect, and Devil Wears Prada. And we're just talking about this now? It's definitely Shawshank. Dude, I'm not a movie and music person. Like, I've never seen any of these classic movies. Like, I have, like, three favorite movies.

I mean, Gump probably up there a little bit. Gump. Last name only. I would say, I don't know, the John Wickick movies are good i just watched one of those recently like i don't have like i saw shawshank is one and i saw that in high school that was we we that was in like my freshman year like general studies class it was like we he did a whole lesson on metaphors and shawshank redemption there's like 20 of them and we we watched the entire movie over like a week

and talked over all the metaphors in the movie. Oh, like crawling through shit to be free? Like, is that a metaphor? Yes, yes. So, yeah, I just, I don't know. I'm telling you what movies I've seen. What are your top three favorite movies? Wow, tough question.

I should have been prepared for that. Wayne's World is my all-time favorite movie and i have no regrets about that um gosh this is really good air as i think i'm not sure i don't think i've seen wayne's world from start to finish that's that's your fault um i really love it's super pissing because i don't see any movies and he's you know you guys are big into movies i'm not yeah i really love uh yeah i don't know the departed's always been one of my i could rattle off my favorite movies you might disagree with it's hard i take it really personally it's your favorite movies um obviously i don't if devil wars prod and pitch perfect or on my i do like pitch perfect though it's your favorite movies um obviously i don't if devil wears proud of pitch perfect or

on my i do like pitch perfect though it's pretty good the first one i mean all three out watch but the first one definitely definitely goodwill hunting is is certainly in my top three i uh i i made my nick went with coach carter and you laughed and you have to meet and stupid crazy love aka crazy stupid love so you you mock that's a worse list than mine I mean, Carter, Casino, and Stupid Crazy Love, a.k.a. Crazy Stupid Love. So you mock them. That's a worse list than mine. Yeah, The Departed belongs in my top three. I'll take that.

Hey, put The Prestige in there. Okay, I see you. It's a good movie. Swingers may be in my top five. That one's a great one. We're getting into now territory that we need to not be in. So thank you guys for joining us. We will ramp back up as we get closer to the season.

Look, Cowboys going to camp pretty soon. We'll have some fun things to do with the show. Have a great week, everyone. Talk to you next week, please. If you listened this long, if you like the podcast, please rate, review, and subscribe. Thank you very much. Have a great week.

Talk to you guys next week.