Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Recapping Chiefs-Cowboys, the Whole NFC is Injured, and AB Fake Vaccine Card Nonsense

Episode Date: November 23, 2021

Geoff and Gabe are back to take a victory lap after the Chiefs win over the Cowboys on Sunday afternoon. Geoff never doubted that Mahomes and co. would return to form, and although there are still a few kinks to iron out, the Chiefs are heading into their bye confident in their spot in the standings. The Cowboys, on the other hand, need to get healthy… just like the Cardinals, Rams, Packers, and Bucs at the top of the NFC. Plus, Gabe tells you how he knows Alex Guerrero and Tom Brady are involved in Antonio Brown’s fake vax card fiasco… and if you don’t agree, then you’re the crazy one, not Gabe.Geoff and Gabe also peek into the future of the tightly-contested AFC East, which means examining Belichick’s record vs his former assistants, before getting into a rambunctious edition of moving the line. Tune in to find out what you should expect from the Steelers for the rest of the season, why LSU is a better job than Florida, and how NFL players go to the bathroom during the game. Are poop hands the new horse boat? Only Geoff knows.Apple listeners, be sure to rate the episode if you enjoyed, and leave a comment for a chance to be featured on a mailbag segment at the end of the season. Are the Chiefs back? Or is this a mirage? Drop your take in the comments!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's tuesday november 23rd i'm jeff schwartz alongside gabe goodwin this is jeff schwartz this morning we're powered by the varsity podcast network it was a great weekend for my canada city chiefs i'm telling you guys they're making a comeback of the dallas cowboys now the team we can trust in the nfc and by the way who is good i have no idea we have no idea who's good we'll have over under as well we're going to talk a lot about the national football league as it enters its 12th week now gabe of the nfl season how are you doing buddy um i hate being right but but i'm right well that's going to be our first topic i can't just launch right into celebrating jeff schwartz on the jeff schwartz is smarter than you football podcast show i mean we got to spend one minute or two humbling you a little bit because your

chief's take is going to be, I told everybody, Jeff, in my background for the there's, you know, people are just listening, but I've got like a cork board and I'm going to go full Charlie from Always Sunny today when we get to the Bucks AB Vax card situation. So I just, I want you to buckle up. I think you're going to think I'm completely insane, but I'm going there and I'm convinced that there's something more to this story than people have reported. Is that the gif that everyone uses of like?

Yeah, yeah. Okay, yeah, okay, yeah. I mean, look, there's plenty to that story. AB is a record that's not playing Monday night, of course. And I love that you wrote Pat's hell on your board because you hate the Patriots. But hey, your Chargers, though, big Saturday night win for your San Diego Chargers,

your Los Angeles Chargers. My Chargers got the job done when it counted. Your Justin Herbert threw the dart that won the game. Austin Eckler threw a great block as well as scoring four touchdowns. It was not an easy night to be a Chargers fan, but it was ultimately a gratifying night. It was fun. And the Chargers are very much alive in the AFC. But they are not better than

your Chiefs, Jeff. The Chiefs are atop the AFC West. They are third in all of the AFC. They are the hottest team by far. Everything seems to be going right. And the only person I know who never lost their cool, who said for weeks, just chill. We're going to get this right. Was you, Jeff. So how come you knew what nobody else on earth knew? How did you see that there was no reason to panic? Because now everyone's right back on the bandwagon with you.

Well, because guys, we're so reactionary, right? This is the way we are in life is we see one thing happen. We freak out, and we go into it. But I also think, too, gambling on football has helped me relax a little bit because you can't – everything that happens in a game, you can't just freak out about because if you do, you drive yourself crazy. Especially when you wager on them.

You kind of have to wait for the outcome to happen. You just have to sit there, hold tight. You've done your research. You've said what you've said. And just see what happens and analyze afterwards. The Chiefs are too talented to be bad at football. Okay? Now, their roster depth is not talented, but the guys at the top are very good.

And to think that they forgot how to play football because they had two or three bad weeks is just not the way football works, guys. And people rooted. They were rooting hard, hard for the Chiefs to suck game. They wanted this dynasty to be not even dynasty. They wanted this dynasty to be, not even dynasty, they wanted this run to be over and almost praise Mahomes. My quarterback doesn't get as much praise as he does. If my quarterback threw a ball, intercepted a ball,

he would be blamed for it and Mahomes doesn't. All this crap that we hear, all these jealous fans around there, they wanted the Chiefs to be done. The defense was bad for four weeks. Guess what? Much better now because they're healthier they move chris jones back inside and they switch some scheme stuff up like these are good coaches to think that steve spagnuolo andy reed forgot how to coach is just not how the nfl works i was telling you just wait till less turnovers they turn the ball a little bit less they had they had one really

bad one yesterday um but just take a deep breath. It works itself out. And they're now back in the groove of things. Yeah, they sure are. So they hold the Cowboys, previously the best offense in the league, to nine points. They picked off Dak.

And you mentioned it. I want to drill into the Chris Jones piece, but the defense just sort of like went from worst all time worst to actually above average and maybe maybe pretty good and you know some of the dorky stats you guys like to look at the chiefs are suddenly you know one of the best teams out there so why did the defense get so much better and just chris jones well no but a couple things happened chris jones went back inside to play d tackle thank god because he's played d tackle he's had almost in three games

the amount of pressure he's had in the first five or six games playing defensive end. Much better inside. Frank Clark has played better defensive end. The addition of Ingram has been very helpful for this Chiefs pass rush. They have played Willie Gaymore and Bolton together. Young

linebacker. Sneed's been back from injury. And they got Daniel St Sorensen off the field a little bit. They've done more zone coverage, less man coverage. Look, man coverage is not working. Can we adjust? And they've adjusted. They've done more zone coverage, keep everything in front of them and it comes

back to they have players and they have coaches who figured it out. They figured out ways to be better and to think again that this coaching staff all of a sudden forgot how to coach, forgot how to make adjustments, is just not of this world. It's not how football works. They're a proven veteran staff and they figured out how to make changes and their players have executed. They bought into it. Yes, the defense is great.

I saw Nick Wright. I love Nick Wright. changes and their players have executed they bought into it yes the defense is great i saw nick right i love nick right he did some random stat put together that said the chiefs are like the best second half defense in the last 25 years but he only used the last five weeks and found some three other teams that they were better than um but the defense is better and and remember guys the defense just needs to get some stops we're're not asking the defense to be the 85 Bears, right? Just get some stops. Force some turnovers, hit the quarterback, and they did that. Now, Dallas played a little bit scared last night with their offensive line. Had some offensive line issues.

It's very clear to see. But nonetheless, the Chiefs defense was never going to be this bad, and they have not been this bad lately. Okay. Fair enough. So maybe they're not as good as holding Dallas to nine every week. No. Definitely they're not as bad as the worst defense of all time.

Probably they're somewhere in between, which I don't know if that's good enough though, Jeff. Here comes the hard part to admit to yourself. The offense isn't a world-beating offense anymore. They're a good offense. They always have Pat who can make a play. But, I mean, you know, what what is it three points in the second half they've only scored more than 20 points twice since week five i know as a fantasy owner of travis kelsey i could use a few more big

weeks than i've seen like uh you sure the offense is where it needs to be so it's a good question um i think uh part of of the issue with the offense is still that lack of consistency, right? It's turnovers. They had another one, ball went right through Kelsey's hands, a turnover there, and penalties.

Like last night, they just had penalties that knocked them out of range to make some damage. They missed a field goal when they should have been more aggressive and gone for it. They had a field goal punt later in the game. They're close.

It's just, again, the errors they keep making offensively as far as lack of execution still do worry me. But we're seeing now signs of, okay, when we're in high gear,

we're back to being what we used to be. The problem is we're just not seeing that enough because, again, it's the errors, right? It's the penalties, the drop,

more drop passes yesterday. Kelsey drops a pass for interception. It's those mistakes that keep happening that if they didn't happen as much, we go from 19 points to 31 points. And they're close to making less of those mistakes. They're close to breaking out

some big ones. And now I believe they're on a bye. Andrew Reid off a bye, something like 23-1. 20-3 after a bye in his career. Not all in KC. And so, you know, they should be able to win. I'm going to pull up their schedule

to make sure who they play next. I think it's a division game. Yeah, they play the Broncos, then the Raiders. So those are two wins, in my opinion. They're both at home. So now you're at 9-4.

At Los Angeles, against the Chargers, tough game. Steel4 at Los Angeles against the Chargers. Tough game. Steelers at Cincinnati at the Broncos. So you're looking at, I think, the worst 4-2 that puts you 11-6. It's a playoff team right there. It's AFC West champions.

And here's the thing. If you are the Titans, the Bills, Ravens, Browns, whoever else you want the Titans, the Bills, Ravens, Browns, whoever else you want to say, Patriots, are you excited to see Pat Mahomes in the playoffs when he comes to your town? The answer is no. No matter how off the offense might be

or how defensive it might be overrated, whatever your reasoning is, is that you do not want to see this team when it comes down to the playoffs and the Chiefs are building in that direction. So I thought it was a strange scheduling snafu. I had to look at it twice. The Chiefs are home by home home all around the Thanksgiving holiday. Seemed like an unbelievable gift to them to be home that whole time on the other hand you're home you got to host all your stupid family and friends you're the big shot in the family so everyone wants to

come to your place i don't know what it was like for you with you and your brother both playing in the league how do you handle thanksgiving not if you're playing on thanksgiving obviously how do you handle thanksgiving as like a normal human being with a family and friends when you're trying to stay locked into the games. I think it just depends on where you are with your game and your family. So obviously the Chiefs are off this week, so that's not a problem. They'll be off anyways. But for the teams you're playing.

So every team did it differently. Some teams would give you off Thursday. You're off Thursday, but Friday is going to be extra because normally the schedule is Thursday is a full day, 7.30 in the morning, 8 o'clock in the morning until 4 or 5. And then obviously you might stay late to get some treatment. Like there's some parts of it that are longer than just that time. And Friday normally is like an 8.30 to 1 o'clock day.

No afternoon meetings to go home. So everyone will do it differently. They either give you a Thursday completely off, which is rare, or they'll do the half day Thursday and the full day Friday. So they'll kind of switch it so you can go home and eat. And then you just, you know, you have, if you're fortunate enough to have a partner who can help you out, make your food or order your food. I think we order our food sometimes.

One year when I was in New York, we, not we, I wasn't part of it, but my family and my parents wanted to see the Macy's Day Parade. So we rented an apartment in the city for the weekend. I drove from practice into the city, had Thanksgiving dinner, and drove back home and went to practice on Friday. So, you know, everyone does it differently. But, yeah, I mean, your family's around. You hope you have someone to help you take the stress off of hosting and cooking.

But just like everyone else, I mean, there are people that work during this time. And so that's what we do. We enjoy Thanksgiving like I think everyone else, I mean, there are people that work during this time. And so that's what we do. We enjoy Thanksgiving like I think everyone else does. Now, the problem is some teams I've been on that weigh you still do a weigh-in Friday, which is horseshit. Excuse my language. Thanksgiving meal and then weigh-in on the next day? Screw you, coaches.

So you – wait a minute. So players – forget linemen. Obviously, you guys do what you got to do. Do you think like wide receivers are eating a full Thanksgiving meal on Thursday of a game week? Yeah, why not? It's a meal. What does a full meal mean? I don't know.

You're going to still be working that through your system by Sunday. You're telling me a professional athlete eats the way normal people eat on Thanksgiving if they have to play a football game? Not all athletes eat good. There are a lot of athletes that just eat McDonald's and stuff and takeout every day. Ugh. Yeah. Dude, when I do my mini triathlons,

as you like to call them, there's no way in the world. That's not what they are, Jeff. There's no way in the world I'm eating a Thanksgiving meal on Thursday if I'm running a race on Sunday. That's not happening. Are they full triathlons? You know, this isn't about me.

Which is funny because I can never do any of that, and yet I'm just mocking you for doing something that's – I don't blame you for mocking me. All right, well, let's stay with some mocking here. So the team that got clobbered by the Chiefs, we just spent a lot of time talking about the Chiefs. Let's talk about the Cowboys, because they kind of opened my eyes to something in the NFC.

So, like, we had just thought they were the best team in the NFC. You may still think that. But they were without, like, basically every player I've ever heard of on their team, including Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Tyron Smith, Marcus Lawrence. Zeke was hurt. So they got a bunch of injury issues. Then the Rams themselves have some injury issues. Obviously, the Cardinals have a major injury issue without Kyler Murray, though they seem to be playing through it with Colt McCoy. And then, of course, the Bucs have

this weird lack of A.B. because of a vax card. Who knows what that story is? We'll get to it in a second. So I think here's the take. I think the winner of the NFC, since we don't know who actually is the best team, will just be the healthiest team, period, when it counts. You buy that? Well, that's how it mostly is, right? Oh, come on. Make it seem smarter than that, Jeff. I mean, most of the time, it's the healthiest team is the team that's in there.

I mean, look, we saw the Chiefs last year obviously struggle to win a Super Bowl because they were hurt. I mean, I know it's a boring answer. It's not the answer you want to hear. But yeah, it's the way it is sometimes. You just are the least injured team. As we've heard, look, the Tennessee Titans, who fans hate when everyone says, well, they're not very good.

Well, the reason why they're struggling is because they have no one to play. They have like the most players on their roster in league history so far through 11 weeks because they're old. They're hurt. Like it's the way it is. You need to be healthy this time of year. So it is very simple of who's health is now. I do think you obviously can look at Tampa Bay and what they did last year

and think they're a favorite. Obviously what the Cowboys can do when everyone's healthy. They're now my math is right, 14-16 without Teron Smith at left tackle. So they need him back. Obviously Amari Cooper comes back, probably not Thursday, from the COVID list. And then

C.D. Lamb got a concussion. He might not even play this Thursday against the Raiders. It might not matter against the Raiders. But I think the Cowboys are still up there. Look, the Packers, defensively, the best they've been in years, which is very beneficial for Aaron Rodgers because the defense has failed him year after year. So they'll be, I mean, those feel like the three teams in the NFC. And the Cardinals.

The Cardinals have won two division games now in San Francisco and in Seattle now with Colt McCoy. That's how you get a one seed, right? You have to win some games of quarterbacks out there playing good football as well. So those are the four teams I think have a chance. Yeah, we saw that with Bridgewater year two ago where he held it down while Breeze was out and the Saints stayed great and then ultimately win anything. But he didn't let him slip and Colt's not letting him slip in Arizona.

Okay, so Aaron has a very, very painful toe injury. That's how he's described it. Forgive the obvious Joe Rogan joke. Of course, Joe is going to be his podiatrist this week. Is this toe injury thing like a real problem for a quarterback? Do we have to worry about their health down the stretch? I mean, I would imagine it's not good i don't know like what the i'm not a turf to expert but turf toes suck you've had turf i've had it yeah it's not fun um it's one of those things that to a lay person

like myself that sounds like a suck it up kind of injury why is that more serious than it's maybe it should be named something scarier sounding because Because so I dislocated my big toe. I did not realize how important your big toe was. You can't use it. It's very important. And it's hard to move and plant and run without your big toe being very functional. That's why it's it's hard to play with that type of thing. Yeah, well, I mean, it makes sense when you say it that way.

I'm just saying it's bad branding by the doctors to call it turf toe you know like turf toe shouldn't keep me the mvp off the field that seems silly i'm not calling him soft you're basically i mean a turf toe is essentially you can break the bones in your bum you're of like in your in your joint like it's not it can be it sounds much um nicer than it actually feels so yeah so let's call it like broken smash broken toe pulverized toe pulverized toe okay yeah the pulverized toe injury yeah it's not i mean wouldn't people be like oh my god aaron rogers played through a pulverized toe you'd be like geez that guy is pretty committed to the game like turf toe i don't it just doesn't doesn't have a pop to it it does not have a pop by the way what has a pop to it is our producer

uh here putting his name is beef stew and just sending us messages the entire show is beef stew and it's very distracting i do not understand the point of beef stew he's created a nickname for himself and then giving him his nickname now is Beef Stew? Yes. That's what you're telling me? Yes. All right. Well, then maybe Beef Stew could help weigh in on this. Jeff, I don't know if we're the right two people to try to fully unpack this AB Vax card story, but it was heavily reported by Rick Stroud, a very well known longtime journalist in Tampa Bay.

well-known longtime journalist in Tampa Bay. Basically, the story is that Antonio Brown had someone make him a fake vaccination card. And the person making that accusation is a former chef of his who was never paid by him. So he has a reason to be upset with AB. So take that for what it's worth. But he says that AB's partner reached out and asked him to get him a fake vaccine card. I don't know why he thought a chef would be able to do that, but nonetheless, he's made the allegation. The Bucs have looked into it and say, no, no, no, no. The card looks good to us. We're still 100% vaccinated as a team. I should note the NFL does not have to

confirm any of this. It's up to the teams to double check all this. Jeff, all of this would have just slid into the 2021 bucket of like, yeah, the world is weird. And so is Antonio Brown. I can't spend too much time on this except for one name. One name in this story popped out to me and I need to bounce it off you. Alex Guerrero. Yeah. You know who Alex Guerrero is, don't you?

Yeah, he's Tom Brady's personal dude. That's right. He's Tom Brady's health guru. The guy who put him on this weird diet and helped him train for years. The guy who was banished by the Patriots. Bill Belichick said, you can't be around here. No more access.

He's a million different accusations against the guy. Go look them up. Alex Guerrero is involved because he took a picture of the vaccination card, apparently, and has also apparently done it for other players on the Bucs. And is somehow involved, has full access in Tampa Bay, and is somehow involved in monitoring who's been vaccinated or not. Isn't that weird? So I believe that he's not modern who's been vaccinated he's just sending pictures of the vaccination card because tampa bay they wanted pictures instead right like he didn't ask yeah why is he the one taking the pictures well he's brady's guy and i

think they trust him right i mean like that's part of it right he's in the facility because he's brady's got other guys use him balachek did not trust him as much and obviously there's some trust there with bruce arians and alex guerrero so if alex is training someone and he verifies hey this vaccination card i actually have mine right here this vaccination card looks legit then it's legit do you so you what's your what's your conspiracy theory that he is he has falsified COVID cards for everyone on the Bucs? Not everyone. I'm not saying that. I think that would be dangerous for me to say I think that because I obviously don't know.

But I think it's a very strange person to have in the middle of a health issue, a guy who has been sort of cast aside by the health community and referred to as a quack and a con man by many other people. I'm not saying that. I just think it's a very odd thing that Bill Belichick was like, yeah, this guy, I don't want him around at my facility. I don't know what he's up to for him to have full access and to be part of the sharing of information as it relates to vaccination cards i find very strange i could also i could see why i could see why it's strange i could yeah at best it's just weird and irresponsible at worst it's something else the moral of the story here though is that antonio brown should start paying the people who do work for him so they don't snitch on all his details that would be helpful helpful. Yeah. Do you think he got vaccinated?

I don't know. I obviously don't think he was vaccinated early in the year. Or why would he be texting people that he wants? Why would his wife be texting people that he wants a fake card? Yeah. And then he got it week three, which doesn't mean he wasn't vaccinated. We've seen this happen in hockey. One of their players got a 21-day suspension for having a fake Vax card.

We've seen other people get in trouble for that as well. I mean, it's just... It's a federal crime. Like, is it worth it? I don't know, man. I think Tom Brady got vaccinated. I don't think he has a fake card. I don't think that's like that.

He looked at it as, can I win or can I not win? I can win. I'm taking the get a vaccine. I don't think he has a fake card. I don't think that's like that. He looked at it as, can I win or can I not win? I can win. I'm taking the vaccine, right? But if they find out that he's, and they basically have said, it was verified he has a vaccination card. I don't think the NFL wants to know either game. They don't want to know.

They don't want to know. They're good with him just showing the card and being done with it. That's why I'm suggesting. I think it's a little strange that they have this guy who's not a team official involved in taking the picture and sharing it. Who knows? I just, I guess what I'm saying is I'd like a little bit more reporting on this because we've got some shady sounding situations with some people who've had, I would say, questionable credibility over the last few years in terms of Brown and Guerrero.

I'm not saying anything about Tom here, but it's odd. Also, Brown lived with Tom when he got to Tampa Bay. You know, there's just, it seems all a little too close to TB12 here. Just bizarre. There is, I can see where there is some conspiracy flowing in your head about what's happening.

I can see that game. I see the wheels turning. I'm just asking the questions. I don't have an answer or a theory. I think we need to call Seth Bickersham. He's probably working on the book right now. I'm sure you know him from your ESPN days. And we got to ask him to get on this investigation.

All right. Well well i know that some people in new england would be interested let's go to new england now you help me with the nfc let's go to the afc this is my nightmare fuel all right the the pats are atop the afc east because the bill's lost i don't know what the hell that was about you can break it down for me they're right there with your chiefs uh. Everyone is falling in love with them again. We've been talking about the 2001 comparisons for a couple weeks now. But to quote my guy Coach Corso,

not so fast, my friend. Guess who the Pats have? Titans, Bills twice, and Colts in their next four. I think they go on four. I think they actually missed the playoffs. What say you, Jeff Schwartz? The Patriots hater thinks the Patriots missed the playoffs. What say you, Jeff Schwartz? Oh, the Patriots hater thinks the Patriots missed the playoffs. Man,

they're playing some good football right now. And it's, oh, football outsiders who we like, who we enjoy. Aaron Schatz tweeted out at 10.46am Eastern this morning.

Football outsiders' playoff odds now updated. And the Patriots are now our Super Bowl favorite. Pitch have the best DVOA in Dave in the AFC. Dave is basically like a current DVOA waited for the future. Nine of the top 13 teams. Dave is adjusted for backup quarterbacks or NFC teams. It's much easier to get out of the AFC conference.

So according to Football Outsiders, who we like, the New England Patriots are Super Bowl favorites. They're not that good, but they're better. And it's just so fascinating to me how people wanted so much to believe that Bill Belichick sucked as a coach. They

wanted so badly to believe that Tom Brady was the only reason why they won New England. And they're showing you now, as I said all along, Belichick can still coach guys. The general manager part of him was like, Ooh,

I don't know. I don't know if he's doing it right now. He's improved the roster mightily this off season, but Belichick, the coach took a seven. He took, he took that team last year. That was void of talent.

The seven, nine. We just watched Cam Newton lose this weekend to Washington. Didn't look good. Belichick won seven games with this guy last year. He's always been able to coach. But now he has a quarterback that runs his system. Offensive line, it's healthy.

They can run the football. And a defense that's very multiple again. Playing more zone coverage but getting after guys in a way they haven't done in quite a few years. They're here to stay. Now, again, their schedule's tough. The way the Bills are playing, Josh Allen's not playing really good this season.

They can beat the Bills one game. No doubt about it. The Bills' defense is regressing as they're playing tougher opponents. So either they're in the playoffs, whether they win the East, not quite sure, but they could split with the Bills, and then we'll see what happens after that. All right, fair enough.

They might split with the Bills after what I saw from the Bills this weekend. That would get them, I think, to one and three in those next four. Josh Allen, by the way, the Bills offense is not good this year. Yeah, it's not great. And Josh Allen is maybe not great like you've been telling us. He had a year or two. It's almost like outliers are not what a player is. We keep doing that, right?

Carson Wentz, the outlier season. Josh Allen, Jared Goff. All this is all outlier stuff. Outlier, outlier, outlier. We cling on to those outlier seasons. They're everything. In fact, they're the outliers. They're not, right?

They're not what is the normal. Well, let me give you something that's statistically backed. This is kind of the norm. Back to the Patriots. Bill Belichick doesn't win against his former assistants. I believe we have these stats

right. We did a little bit of digging. He's 15-17 overall against his former assistants. 2- one in the playoffs. But the loss comes against Mike Vrabel, Titans head coach, last year. Two playoffs ago, right? Right. Yes. Yes.

Because they missed last year. You're right. The playoffs that happened in 2020. I don't know, man. I don't think Belichick. I mean, if that game against Vrabel is going to be kind of a really important game for the Patriots this season, even though the Titans don't look like anything special this week either,

I don't know if he gets past that Titans team in Vrabel. I don't think he's great against guys who know all his tricks. Maybe not, but the Titans this year, dude, are so beat up. They're so injured. We saw them lose to Houston last week. last week and other opportunities. I feel like they're just not as good as they've been in the past. I think there's issues there.

So, yeah, that's where I kind of stand on the Titans. I don't think they're as good as we think. They're 18th in DVOA. They're just okay. They kind of have a schedule. They kind of had some good wins. But, Gabe, they're struggling with injuries, dude. It's bad.

Yeah. Well, they're not struggling with injuries as bad as the Ravens are. No. The Ravens suck on another win, man. The Browns. Personnel issues with the Raiders. I mean, I think all those, like, not the best but pretty good playoff contending teams in the AFC, like the Steelers for sure as we saw on Sunday night like they're all dealing with injuries so yes bottom bottom line do you think

the Chiefs are the favorite in the AFC the next best team is Buffalo's next best team I think the the issue again is the going to have to go on the road. They lost that record to the Bills and the Titans. They're going to have to win three road games. They're going to have one home game and two road games. It's going to be hard to do. It's going to be hard to do. And their offense has got to start to get more in a rhythm,

stop turning the ball over. But I think of this morning, they're the gambling favorite in the AFC. Okay. Well, I'm glad to hear it wasn't the Pats. Let's move the line next. That's our quick over-under game. We got a few more teams to cover in that and a few other weird stories I want to bounce off you. We'll take a quick break. We'll be right back. All right, Jeff, we're back. It's time to move the line. A little over-under game that we like

to play. We didn't talk enough about this game yet, so here goes. Over-under, 20% chance the Steelers score 37 points again in another game this season. Boy, they scored a lot of points, especially late against the Chargers. Is that ever going to happen again? No. And I actually think they're, you know, we were very, very strong on Pittsburgh not making the playoffs this year.

And they kind of made us look like fools for a little bit of time. But they're 5-4-1. Bengals, Ravens, Vikings, Titans, Chiefs, Browns, Ravens coming up. Whew. Good luck with that. The game last night was awesome. I went to bed. I think the game was 27-10 when I went to sleep.

And my fantasy opponent had Justin Herbert and Mike Williams. And a sizable lead. And I woke up in the morning and I was like, ooh, I won. Got kind of close. And I was like, wait, how'd that happen? I checked the score. 41. Oh, my God.

I went back and watched the highlights. Oh, boy. They will not score more than 37 this season, but they will also not give up 41 points this season. So I think both things are, I feel very comfortable saying those things. All right, so the Steelers are probably still the team, as we've been saying, that can screw up other people's seasons but don't have much going for them this year.

They're just not good enough at quarterback. It's that simple. Yeah, Cam Hayward looked like a monster on Sunday night, and they were doing all that without Minka and TJ Watt. I mean, they were down some guys, and they showed a bit. But Cam Hayward, man, that guy can play, huh? They should have been down Cam Hayward after he fucking punched two people. Yeah, that was weird.

Excuse my language on that one. That slipped out there. Sorry, kiddos. I was out of character, too, because I've been around. Cam's a really sweet guy. I wouldn't think he'd be the kind of guy to hit a quarterback on the ground. Look, you're emotional sometimes. Is that what it is?

It just looked so strange. He took a cheap shot on Herbert. You just get emotional, yeah. Yeah, okay. All right, over under three and a half more wins this season for the following teams. We've talked about them a little bit, but I want to pin it down. The Titans.

Over under three and a half. If you want their schedule, I've got it for you. Over under wins. It's at New England, no. Jacksonville, yes. At Pittsburgh, I would say no. I think they go three and three with this last schedule. Again, eventually you just don't have players to play games, Gabe.

And they're at that point where they're just so beat up right now. I would go with under that. I go 3-3, last six games. 3-3 in their last six, which is still probably good enough to win their division, unless you think Jonathan Taylor and the Colts are just heating up and about to come on strong. Is that what you think?

We'll see. Okay. Not totally sold there. The Ravens. So they, by the way, major MVP problems for Lamar if they win a game without him. I had to know their backup. Yeah. So they win the game.

It was ugly, but they win without him, which is an important win. So over under three and a half more wins for them, they have Cleveland at Pittsburgh, at Cleveland again, Green Bay at Cincy, Rams, and Steelers. That's an unbelievably bad stretch. Yeah, it's going to be, I'll go three and four for that stretch. So under three and a half wins for that. Yeah, three and four would be, they'd probably have to be happy about that.

I think so too. That would put them at what, 10 and seven overall? And I'm not sure that's good enough. Especially if they lose a couple of the wrong games and tie breaks. Yeah, it's going to be, they have the tiebreaker over the Chiefs, which is good, but the Chiefs are winning the division. So that's the thing, are the Ravens division

winners? Probably, not the Browns. They can win the division though. That's the thing that makes them into the playoffs. Yeah that that's got that's probably their best path um i think we're probably getting wild cards from out west uh and then maybe in the east all right over under 40 odds the florida head coaching vacancy is filled before lsu or usc so that job opened up this weekend pretty nice one seems like you're a're a little closer to success if you go to Florida. Which job would you want? Well, LSU has had three coaches win championships in the last 18 years, right?

Les, it was Saban, Les, and Ed. And obviously Florida has had one, that's Erbs, with your boy, Timothy, at the helm. Another with my boy, Chris Leak, but keep going. He won with both, didn't he?

Yeah, he did. Or just one. Okay, he won them both. Yeah. Chris Leak from Charlotte went to the same high school as my wife.

My wife has no idea about football, but she knows Chris Leak went to her high school. I suppose at the same time they were there together. Who knows? All right, let's,

I have a better job oh boy this one's this one's difficult um there's probably lsu just because they they have been winning more um and maybe that matters that kind of have a culture they're already winning. But I will say they're in the tougher side of the SEC West, at least for now. They have Bama and Auburn and Ole Miss and A&M on their side. Florida has Georgia. That's their biggest test. And so I think from that perspective, maybe it is Florida's better. But LSU's done more winning

like that that's the important part right like they've shown the ability to get championships there so i would go with lsu okay you're not even giving any love saying nothing nice about usc in this whole conversation but there's a report today that dan quinn is possibly gonna be like in that in the mix for that job like congratulations usc who reported it dan quinn okay it is it is monday right now it's november 22nd as we said well 23rd obviously as we said as we're recording though i'll tell you this right now i am 29 and 10 in the pac-12 wage on the pac-12 conference this year. If you are listening to this, it would be very wise of you to go bet on BYU minus seven at USC before this line gets to 10 by kickoff.

BYU is going to win this game 55 to 17. I don't understand why people think USC is still good. They have allowed 42 twice, 45, 38 to Arizona, and 63 points at home in the last five games. Why is BYU going to score less than 55 points in this game? I don't understand. Why is USC only seven-point underdog? I don't get it, Gabe.

Felt like a bit of an egregious aside. You do a whole gambling show that I don't have to be a part of on Thursdays, but you're, for some reason, crapping all over USC with me on a Monday? Yeah. I mean, that just felt like a cheap shot, Jeff. Maybe it was. But nonetheless, USC is going to hire, I don't know, they're going to hire someone soon. Who knows?

Okay. Well, whoever they hire, that person should probably make sure that their family members are kind of like taking it easy on social media. Otherwise, they're going to create news they don't want. I don't know if you saw this. I'll read it to you in a second. But over under 10% odds, Baker has to tell his wife to just chill on Instagram because they win the game. And then she's out there basically saying like he's super tough and his teammates should take the hint, you know, and respect how tough he is.

Like, is that really the message? I mean, because obviously people are going to assume that he agrees with her. Like, what is she doing? And then Baker said today something about like the fans booing hurt his feelings. He's like, well, those are for the fans that like suck or something. Who knows? They're just out of control he said oh yeah he said uh baker mayfield said today that fans on boolean those are probably the same fans who won't be quiet when we're on offense trying to operate

so i don't really care has there ever been an athlete who's lost more millions of dollars in one season than baker mayfield like he's lost lots of millions of dollars also worth noting that um the chief's offense has played better as his brother hasn't been the last two games. Just worth noting as well. Maybe there's a little family drama happening in Kansas City. Maybe there needs to be some family drama happening in Cleveland. I'm glad my wife was never on social media while I played.

She's barely on social media now. She's private. You can't find her. I mean, you can. You can try. She's not going to take your request. I get it's hard to do. Now she's private. You can't find her. I mean, you can, you can try. It's not going to take your request. I, I,

I get it's hard to do. I mean, obviously I had a brother that played for a while, but I never, I just said it how it is. Like my brother was really good. I don't know. I,

I just, your family's just got to stop, man. He's got to chill, got to chill down. You know, like just calm down, man.

But I also, I understand like rah, rah for your family or like jackson mahomes who you reference just try to make yourself famous without really commenting on anyone else i don't know what he's bringing about you know there's no criticism in what he's doing it's just kind of a distraction what what she said was i don't think i have seen toughness like this in a while maybe the rest of our team should take the hint and get tougher? There's no misinterpretation

possible. That's only saying Baker's teammates aren't tough enough. And she doesn't play. That's the number one thing. As a guy in the media or a producer, I'm not even allowed to say that. She's saying that? That seems crazy to me. That she goes home to the same house as him and thinks she can say that about

his teammates. Dude, I don't know, man. I mean, I, I, again,

I would ask my family members to not cause any more drama for me. That's what I would do. But yeah. All right. Well, let's see if he has a conversation about it. Jeff, I want to know over under 90% certainty,

you can go seven hours without peeing? Probably not. Probably not. You don't think you could do it? No. How long do you think you could go? Well, am I purposely dehydrating myself? Well, the reason I asked is because our boy Scott Hansen over at Red Zone,

he purposely dehydrates himself every Sunday morning, uses the bathroom, and then he sits down, does Red Zone for seven straight hours. So, yeah, I guess you seven hours without peeing, but like, that's what a severe, like, yeah, it's like, you know, it's a severe lack of, of water. I mean, I'm fasting. So I would say, no, I, I, I couldn't do that. How do you go to the bathroom when you're mini tries? Well, you don't tend to have to go during a mini triathlon, but I will say the first part is in the ocean. So if you got to go, you just get it out while you're swimming. And then I suppose if it's just a number one, I, you know, at this point in my life, I've, I've been covered in so much puke and poop from children that if I had to go while I was running, I think I'd just let it rip. I'd run in my own pee.

I've never done that before. I've never peed in myself and played football. Is that true? Never have. I've talked about this with other guys who played. I've never done that before. I've never peed in myself and played football. Is that true? Never have? I've talked about this with other guys who've played. You've really never done that? No, they have? I know one guy who says, yeah, I've done it. Why don't you just go pee on the side?

There's many places to pee. You just entered your bladder in the middle of a field when you could have just taken a pee anywhere else? Those are their obvious follow-up questions. Yeah, I can't explain.

So here's, I'll give you, we'll go ahead with this. I was a rookie in Kansas City, I mean, in Carolina. And we were, it was a summer, it was like a September game. I look over and our kicker is in a full parka on the sidelines.

I'm like, what is this? It's like 97 degrees outside. Then all of a sudden he pulls a cup of pee from under his jacket and dumps it i was like okay that makes sense yeah these old stadiums don't have bathrooms behind the benches so you either have to do that or like kneel behind the telecommunication stuff about the 50 yard line there's like a drain right there and piss behind and people kind of hold towels up for you sometimes just piss like like into the drain the newer stadiums have

bathrooms like behind the bench so you just go just go to the bathroom like you would normally but yeah i mean it's how much water we drink i i'm guys go all the time like the at halftime the bathroom is like just every single player goes to the bathroom at halftime. But yeah, I don't. One thing too, once my hands get taped, number twos do not happen. Practice games, not happening. My body just knows it shuts off. No poop for you, buddy.

Not happening. Or you could use those taped up hands like an oven mitt. Just get down there and give it a good wipe and then who's going to want to engage with you on the line if you've got poop hands then my hands are covered in poop downside of that is E. coli

and C. diff fucking pink eye in your face for the opponent not for you. There's no way you can play a game with poo hands and not have it get on your clothes, your teammates, anything else. So you're

shooting down the poo hands idea? You don't think that's smart? I am shooting down the poo hands idea. What's dumber? The poo hands idea or my Vax card conspiracy nonsense questions? What's the Office episode, the poo hands idea or my Vax card conspiracy nonsense questions. What's the Office episode, the Michael Scott paper company, when Dwight and Michael or Dwight is talking about horse boat?

Or is it the Willy Wonka episode? We're talking about horse boat and toilet net and all that stuff when they're catching. It just sounds like we're talking about poo hands. Same thing as they're talking about horse boat and the toilet net whatever it is um all right this podcast is just off the rails now we've we've probably derailed i mean and i didn't even ask about some silly thing to watch oh look look beef stew got it horse boat is a canoe you build around your horse you can easily switch between riding and boating i believe that is the golden ticket episode.

The We Walk episode is where that's from. So, oh God, horse boat, incredible. All right, guys, we've done too much now. We've gone too long. We've done too much. If you listen this long and you like The Office or Curb, we can be best friends. So the Curb episode this week, glorious as usual.

So one of the first where I've seen Larry just break and he broke a couple it was a good episode guys check it out alright we'll talk to you guys on Thursday we are we're building our way out 3-2 this week we're 24-32 I think so we're kind of working our way out

of the hole a little bit because I think we were 9-21 at one point so we're kind of building up building out. And we'll be back on Thursday with another episode with some wagering. Alright, guys. Have a great couple days.