Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Rodgers, OBJ, CFB Playoff Rankings, and the Best Bets for NFL Week 9

Episode Date: November 4, 2021

Geoff and Matt are back to give you their picks for the coming weekend, but first they have some breaking NFL news to address. Aaron Rodgers’ “alternative treatment” could signal the beginning of the Jordan Love era, and Geoff predicts what comes next for OBJ now that he  and the Browns are on the outs. Geoff was surprised by the playoff rankings from top to bottom (except #1) but he can see the committee’s logic… kind of. Plus, picks on four CFB games from this coming weekend, including two in the top 5 of the playoff rankings.Geoff and Matt go through every game on the NFL slate (22:15) and pick out a few they’re betting on (Cardinals vs 49ers, Falcons at Saints) and a few they’re staying away from (Panthers vs.  Patriots, Vikings at Ravens). Matt takes a victory lap for picking Mike White and the Jets last week, but he’s not picking them again this time, and Geoff gives his take on Henry Ruggs’ crimes.Apple listeners, leave a comment on the episode for a chance to be featured in a mailbag segment! Are you fading Matt and Geoff, or are you riding and dying with the team? Let us know!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, November 4th. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smarty. We're powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. And normally in this show, we just talk about picks, college football and NFL. But man, a lot has happened in the NFL in the last 48 hours. Aaron Rodgers out this weekend, Odell and some drama in Cleveland. And there's a lot happening, Matt. So we're going to get to the news of the day and the week first before we get to our college picks and our NFL picks. Two straight weeks of winning NFL picks. Again, in the Pac-12 conference, I am hot as can be.

Matt, how are you, buddy? The NFL is never short of drama. Never short, Jeff. The trade deadline came and went. Aaron Rodgers made news. And I mean, this to me, this feels like just the world conspiring to to take away minutes where i could be bragging about taking the jets last week that's just that's what it feels like i had this whole i was like oh i'm just gonna come in hot

and just be fired up about my amazing prediction that i get one right per year that's it so you know from now on but yeah we've got plenty to talk. So why don't I stop joking around and get to this enormous story about Aaron Rodgers? We're recording this Wednesday afternoon, so this could change by the time people hear some of this. But it turns out that Aaron Rodgers is ruled out for the Packers game against the Chiefs Sunday. This was this game we were all looking forward to. We'll get to the line move in a second.

But it was revealed that Rodgers is actually unvaccinated and that he sort of was trying to go around the NFL's regulations to get an approval for an alternative treatment. And the air quotes were there for the audio listeners here. Jeez, Jeff. I mean, where do you even want to start? I mean, we can obviously talk about the football impact here, but there's a lot of ways to go. The floor is yours. So it's reported that Aaron Rodgers received homeopathic treatment from his personal doctor to raise antibody levels

and asked the NFL to review his status. The NFL, the NFLPA, and the joint docs ruled he's unvaccinated, and therefore he is considered unvaccinated. And here's the thing that is surprising to me, is not every player in the NFL, and I hate that the shot and the vaccine have gone so political, but not everyone in the NFL is like a left-leaning, political-leaning ideology, right?

And there are players in the NFL that I think would not take the shot if not for having to win Super Bowls. Like Tom Brady, for example, who has lived his entire existence, TB12 method, right? I'm going to do something different. I'm going to eat differently. I'm going to prepare differently. I'm going to do this and do that.

Got the shot because he wants to win football games, right? I'm a Chiefs fan. Pat Mahomes came out early and said, I Got the shot because he wants to win football games, right? I'm a Chiefs fan. Pat Mahomes came out early and said, I got the shot. I want to win football games, right? And for Aaron Rodgers to not do this, it's very shocking. This might cost him the number one seed. And if it does, they're not going back to the Super Bowl. Sorry, they're not doing it.

And if you're the Packers, and I thought Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers' situation has calmed down, right? Like it's kind of calmed down. They're winning football games. Rodgers appears to be having fun in Green Bay. I thought there was no way he was gone after the season, even though there was the offseason, Bruja, whatever. But now, I think he's absolutely gone, no matter how good Jordan Love plays.

Because how do you rely on your quarterback when now he's probably out two weeks, he's unvaccinated, and there's a shitstorm coming up because he's not following the protocols, it appears. He's not wearing a mask when he should in public settings. And there's a lot coming down the Packers because of this. But to me, it comes back to the selfishness, right? Again, you might disagree with the mandate. There is no mandate in the NFL.

You might disagree with how they handled or are no mandate in the NFL. You might disagree with how they handled or are they handling vaccinated or unvaccinated players. But the truth is, if you wanted to win this season at the highest level, you would have sacrificed some of your beliefs for the betterment of your team. And Rodgers just did not do that. Lots to react to.

I want to say this first. I think that the story here is just kind of beginning. Like with everything with Aaron Rodgers for the last year, it seems like it just never ends. Like what's going to happen now? A lot of people on social media have flagged all these videos of Aaron Rodgers violating what it appears to be violating these protocols, which the NFL set in place for exactly this reason with unvaccinated players. If you remember,

they're not supposed to fly on the same flight as the vaccinated players. There's rules about where you can eat, where you can meet like your, your remote contact. Like there's all these rules and the Packers clearly were trying to look the other way here, I guess with this sort of like loophole, so to speak that Rogers was trying to conceive on his own.

It seems pretty unrealistic for on its face, this could this could start something you're talking about this season in the repercussions like even in a world where jordan love plays well and then there's sort of like a natural handoff if they like violated a bunch of rules here the nfl kind of has to make an example out of them right like couldn't we see here like some draft picks docked or like a huge fine or some something else that could really come out here i think that this could set up a big problem long term for them it could be a problem long term especially because again if he's violating these rules now it appears that generally speaking some of the rules are not totally followed like the flying rule right like

our team's taking two planes for the foreign vaccinated players probably not right like i don't think that some of these have been followed to the t the problem is now when you have a high profile player testing positive who's unvaccinated you're going to be scrutinized now every time rogers was seen in a press conference without wearing a mask anytime he was seen at a practice without wearing a mask or a preseason game without wearing a mask, it's all going to be scrutinized and the Packers knew he was not vaccinated. So if they are not making him follow the protocols,

I'd imagine the NFL is going to care. You might say, well, the NFL has shown, you know, they're not care about certain things. They care about this. Remember last year when they made the Broncos an example,

right? And they could have, they could have had a couple guys play but no no all your quarterbacks are out and you're playing tomorrow they could have delayed that game we saw them shuffle the schedule all season long nope you're done and so i think the nfl will take this very seriously will hammer rogers and the packers if it's found they willingly violated protocols. And again, if you're just from a football perspective, I think the Packers have the Chiefs and then the Seahawks in back-to-back weeks. So you're probably not getting Rodgers back for the Seattle game. And now two games that were winnable,

I mean, the Chiefs game, and we'll get into that in a second. I mean, they should have won that game with Rodgers. They might still win the game with Love I don't know but they were winning with Rodgers right I mean I don't think there's any doubt about that so this is just a it was it's it's selfish of him to do it it is and and I know people will you know you can yell and scream at me in my mentions about my my comments here but guys I I go back to college football to Tom Brady Nick Saban dabbo sweeney they all got vaccinated right because they want to win in the end they want to win and they'll put aside their personal differences when it comes to the vaccine and i'm not saying that

tom brady nick saban or dabbo sweeney are anti-vax but i'm just pointing out guys that we look at as maybe on the conservative side and they went got the, right? Because they know that it helps them win. And that is the most important thing to a lot of these players and coaches. I would just say that the point here for the Packers, like this could be a sliding doors moment, okay? Jordan Love is going to be making an enormous high- high profile start.

Devontae Adams is back. Oh, yeah. Chiefs are wounded. If Jordan Love comes out and wins this game, this could be the moment like this could be the moment of the story where we look back on Rogers, the story with Favre. And it was like, well, he's waffling on retirement. So they just said like, hey, Rogers, you're the guy now. This could be it.

It could start this week. And that would be just unbelievable. The whole the way the saga has played out. And and by the way it proves the packers were right you have to have a good backup quarterback no matter how reliable your quarterback your starter is there are times where you're going to need your backup quarterback yeah and i don't think you know no matter how well love plays rogers not losing his job this year. But to your point, it's about next year, right? The ramifications after that. And what happens next year with Aaron Rodgers. I saw

PFT tweet out that he should be, his punishment should be going to the Washington football team. So I'm sure, Matt, you would very much enjoy Rodgers on your team. But, you know, there's going to be ramifications moving forward. Because to your point, if Jordan Love plays well, Rodgers is out of there quickly after the season.

If Jordan Love doesn't play well and Rodgers wants to stay, then there's more leverage for him to obviously stay, right? And so we'll see how quickly Jordan Love gets up to speed here. But it's a big story, man. It's a big story because it's the top quarterback in the NFL. And again, a lot of the other ones have gone the shot. They're not doing homeopathic treatments in Canada. Of course, the NFL was going to say no to that. And here we are.

So Packers and Chiefs, the point spread has very much shifted over the last couple hours. We'll get to that in a second. The other story I want to talk about before we get to the picks is Odell Beckham. So Odell was not traded by the Browns, but his dad basically retweeted a video or shared a video on Instagram detailing all the times Odell has been open this season. I watched some of the video.

Some of those were accurate. Some were not like, some were like really like throws that maybe only Pat Mahomes and Rodgers can make, not Baker Mayfield. But nonetheless, Odell today on Wednesdays, we record this was barred from the team.

Essentially, he's no longer part of the team. Like Stefanski is like, yeah, he's done. He's not part of our team anymore. And they're going to have to move on from him. They're going to have to cut him. Trade deadline has passed already. But this begs the question, like, why did they just trade him for a ham sandwich yesterday?

Like, what are you doing, guys? Yeah, that's interesting. You know, I'm curious. I'll remind the listeners. This is something I often will remind Jeff and our colleagues in a group chat that on the crazy one handed catch against Dallas, the first guy to run down the field and hug Odell Beckham was Jeff Schwartz. You should watch the clip. It's kind of unbelievable. I always smile watching that. I'm kind of curious, like, Odell has this sort of label now

as like this kind of like odd dude, I guess. Like that would be the kind way of saying it is like he's kind of burned out now with two different teams. It's been rocky throughout. He hasn't been good in a while, like, or at least reliable. I'm curious, like, is this a guy you'd bet on if you were out there and could make a trade or pick him up? That's a good question.

So, you know, in New York, he was reliable. Then he got hurt. I mean, it wasn't like he was a bad locker room guy, in my opinion. I play with Odell. I thought he's a fine locker room guy, but obviously did not work in Cleveland. And he's a diva wide receiver. This is what they are, right? All of them are like this. There's no wide receivers that are not divas. It's an individualistic position, right? You have to be an individual to be good at this, right? Yeah, you need the ball thrown to you, but it's an individual position. right you you have to be an individual to be good at this right yeah you need the ball thrown to you but it's individual position you you have to beat a corner one-on-one you have to then make a catch and whatnot so of course they're gonna be a little bit of me me me and selfishness in in that he wants the ball either he can help some teams

um you tell me he couldn't he couldn't help new england a little bit can help about the giants the giants have no receivers. It's so ironic. But if he gets waived, he's not going to go to a non-playoff team, probably. Yeah, but I'm – well, I mean, well, let's see who even wants it. But I'm just saying it's ironic that the Giants are out there. They're like, well, we can't do anything because Dante Pettis is injured. It's like, man, if only they had Odell Beckham, that would have been something. Darius Toney can't play.

So it is – it's interesting. I mean, the Browns, and we'll get to them in a little bit. I mean, the Browns are kind of a dumpster fire right now. They've been a big disappointment this season. Yeah, they have. I don't know what's going to change that because now there's infighting and Odell's not there and Baker's hurt. And we'll get more into them as we continue to move it along

but yeah I think that's that's kind of the the big news of the of the moment and we'll move on to our picks this week very quickly on college so Oregon let's talk about the the playoff rankings oh yes yes please yeah so they got unveiled last night um again we're recording this Wednesday Oregon making the top four was a bit of a surprise to some uh bad break for cincinnati coming in at number six that was a bit of a surprise i'm curious what your big takeaways are and try to try to leave your oregon homerism out of this as much as you can well i was shocked they were fourth uh i thought it was going to be cincinnati at four and then oregon at five and oh State at six. Actually, I was not,

I thought Oregon would be behind Ohio State, but they beat them and that has to be part of this discussion. I was, again, they're about to tell Cincinnati that no matter what you do, you're not going to be in the playoff unless everyone else loses. It's not fine.

I understand their logic on that. The logic makes sense. The logic is fine. I would have put them in the top four though. But they're saying like, look, yeah, you beat Notre Dame, but who else have you played right who and like we can't put you in over someone who's played a better schedule now to their defense matt all you can do is play teams on your schedule like the cincinnati should have no um it shouldn't be a discussion with them

because they play on the schedule part of it i think too is that if you put them at four let's just hypothetically talk about this you put them at four, let's just hypothetically talk about this. You put them at four. Oregon wins out or Ohio State wins out or either or both. Oklahoma wins out. You know, are you going to remove Cincinnati, who started at four, has won all their games and nothing to deserve to move out of four, on the last weekend of the year you have Oklahoma pass them

like that's kind of where like and I think about always an Oregon fan I'm like look if we went out we're 12 and one men you can't drop us in the rankings how we haven't put someone in front of us we've done what you asked us to do we're four to start we've won five games we have to finish off the last four post-apocalyptic

game you can't move us down anymore so but the top six was not even it was it was have to finish off the last four post-apocalyptic games. You can't move us down anymore. But the top six was not even... It was BYU at 15. It was Minnesota being ranked. It was three loss, Mississippi State being ranked. I mean, there was a lot of things in this that did not make sense to me. Again, I think Cincinnati should be four.

I guess I get why they're not. Oklahoma being eight as a 9-0 team, the only 9-0 team in the country is kind of fascinating to me too. But there's, there's a month left of football. This will all get worked out. Yeah. That's,

I think they, you know, they dropped this, this early so that people like us get fired up. I mean, Oklahoma to me is, is definitely the standout. I mean,

it's like if they went out, they still have two road games in the conference left. They have Baylor and they have Oklahoma state on the on the road it's like if they win all those games like and like how do they not jump in there over somebody like you know oregon or ohio state i don't know they they will um i don't think they're going to win the last three games again they're at baylor and then it's so iowa state sandwich in the middle and then they're at um Baylor and then it's Iowa State sandwich in the middle and then they're at OK State

and they're all three ranked teams so it might work itself out Alabama being two makes sense but look it makes sense from this perspective you're going off of best team versus most deserving they're the second best team are they most deserving

I don't know now we'll find out right they lose to Georgia. They're probably out. They beat Georgia. Then both Georgia and Alabama are in. A lot of football left to go. Were your Maryland Terps anywhere here? Not quite.

I don't know. This cuts off at 10, so maybe they were number 11. I'm not sure. I think they might have been. I just know that the 7-win Sark and the Texas Longhorns aren't anywhere to be found here. So not surprising for Hank.

The production team getting crushed here by Jeff. Man, the guy gets in the BCS standings once and has to talk all that shit. All right, man. Why don't you, speaking of Oregon. National Championship Games played since 2005. Oregon 2, Texas 0, just FYI. All right, so let's get to the Oregon-Washington game this weekend.

Oregon 6.5, 7, 7.5 point favorites. Washington's our rival. We hate them. They hate us. And we're going to smash them into oblivion. Washington is not good in things you need to be good at they're one of the least explosive teams in the country they cannot run they cannot run the ball and they don't stop the run like they're one of they're the worst at doing all of that uh oregon is uh up to now i I believe, 11th in overall offensive,

13th in overall offensive production. They're 6th in success rate. They're 11th in points per drive is Oregon. They rarely have three and outs. They're 12th in the country in that. They're 3rd in stuff rate, which means they don't need a yard. They're getting it. On 3rd down, I believe they're number 10 on 3rd down in the country.

They're number 3 in the country in converting red they're number 10 on third down in the country. They're number 3 in the country in converting red zone opportunities to touchdowns. 77% of the time in the red zone they score a touchdown. Washington, they're good in their back end. They're secondary. Secondary is really good. But Matt, on offense, 125th in country and

explosiveness. That's not going to win you a game against a good football team. Quarterback adjusted air yards per attempt of 5.7. That's not going to win you a game against a good football team. A quarterback adjusted air yards per attempt of 5.7. That's not winning you many football games. Yards before contact by their leading running back. 1.4 yards per contact. Oregon, by the way, 3.8 yards per contact. Yards before contact, I should say.

I'm just telling you, Oregon's going to smash them. It's going to be a 14-17 point win. They're now playing for style points, which they had not done all season. You have to now. You have to play for style points, and I think this will be a week that they do that. All right, moving on.

Oh, boy. Playing the seven. All right, Auburn at Texas A&M. You want to do that? Yeah, we'll do Auburn at A&M. So I'm going to take Auburn here plus the four and a half just because I think these teams are very close in alignment. Now, A&M. So I'm going to take Auburn here plus the four and a half just because I think these teams are very close in alignment. Now A&M

is off a buy and Jimbo Fisher is three and six against a spread off a buy as the A&M head coach including bowl game. So he has not been great off a buy. He even lost to Mississippi State straight up a couple years ago. You know where Auburn has a couple advantages. They're better at finishing

drives on offense and they're better in the red zone. They convert to touchdowns in the red zone at 66%, while A&M is near 50%. There's a couple things here, a little bit of difference between these schools, and that's why they matter. Special teams, by the way, both really good. Their personnel up front,

defensive line, offensive line, pretty good. So I'll take the plus four and a half with Auburn here in this only game this weekend between ranked opponents. How about the Big Ten game, Ohio State-Nebraska? Oh, geez. So I'm going to take Nebraska here plus the 15. Don't feel great about it, but here's why I'm going to do it. So Scott Frost is on his last legs at Nebraska,

and this is kind of his last stand right here. They have to win this game to even consider keeping his job, and when Ohio State has played two defenses that are worth anything, Penn State and Oregon, their offense was not as good, and Nebraska's defense, guys, is pretty good. The 19th in the country, 11th of points per drive, fifth in limited explosive plays. They get after the passer. They're able to hit the passer, stop the run.

It's a pretty good defense. And I think we're going to see Ohio State. Again, they scored, what was it, 28 against Oregon, and now they just scored 33 against Penn State. But remember, one of those was a thick six, right, a fat guy touchdown. So their offense is just not as proficient against these better defenses. This game is in Nebraska.

It's their first monster road game since the beginning of the season against Minnesota. Nebraska's offense scares the shit out of me. They're not as bad efficiency-wise as you'd imagine, but they're really bad in the red zone on third down. So I'm kind of concerned about this. But home game, all the money in Ohio State, Matt, this fits all of our principles.

All right, we got one more here. A popular team with a lot of grapes in this playoff thing is Wake Forest. They're at UNC this week. What do you think? So the total is 76 in this game. Wow. Just for fun, I want to bet the over. Both defenses

are not very good. Both offenses, man, they scored a high rate. Wake Forest this year allowed 59 points to Army. 56 to Army. They allowed 37 to Syracuse.

34 to Louisville. I mean, North Carolina is going to score a ton of points. Wake will score a ton of points. What's odd is Wake is the underdog at North Carolina. Wake is ranked eighth in the country, Matt. And they're getting a point in this game. So far this year, when an unranked team plays a ranked team, and that unranked team is favored,

they've covered 8 of 14, but they've won 9 of 14. So if you're picking North Carolina here, you think they're going to win the game outright most likely. So there is a little bit of a trend to unranked favorite playing ranked favorite and going that direction. Interesting. All right, man. We're already 20 minutes deep in this thing. Should we move to our,

to our NFL picks? Let's move to NFL. Another winning week, three and two. We're digging ourselves out. And there's a lot of games that I think we liked this week. There are. One of them is not the game tonight.

If you're listening to this, the Thursday night game, the Jets are going to Indy. The line we're seeing is 10 and a half. There's no chance we're taking the Jets here. So is this a layoff? Is there a prop for what part of the game Carson Wentz will have a debilitating turnover? I mean, he doesn't usually have them. That's the thing.

Last week, he kind of became the old Carson Went's the thing is last week he, you know, he kind of became the old Carson Wentz. He turned back into a pumpkin on Halloween. Hey, look at that. I love the argument, by the way, that it's good he threw the ball away because if he took a safety, the game was over. You're like, I mean, fair, but I don't think he was thinking that in his head.

Like, oh, oh, oh, low interception. Just a bad, bad situation. The left-handed throw, the pick six. Yeah, we're staying away from this. Look, you called the Jets last week. I could totally see it let down this spot and they just go to, you know, Indy gets smashed, but we stay away from Thursday games.

And if we like them, we tell you, like we liked Seattle a couple of weekends ago, a couple of weeks ago. Just can't do this game. Yeah, I'm taking the the colts and survivor this week okay i'm starting to overthink those picks i like it so all right we'll see okay moving on to sunday we've got the falcons at the saints is our first game uh the line we're looking at is the saints by five and a half michael thomas out for the season kind of forgot he was in the league

uh not sure who the saints quarterback is here. That may dictate which way I'm leaning. I see a bunch of sixes across the board. Well, then, even better. I see a bunch of sixes here. Consensus is six right now. Six it is.

I think we'll take the six here. Alright, are we breaking one of our rules, Matt? Are we breaking one of our rules? Matt? Are we breaking one of our rules? Yeah, because we're taking another one of our rules, which is bet against Trevor Simeon whenever we get the chance. Trevor Simeon potentially is a six-point favorite. We're still not sure if Taysom Hill is going to play. If he is, he probably hasn't practiced yet.

Maybe he's practicing as we're taping this. So we're either getting Taysom Hill with no practice or we're getting Trevor Simeeon as a six point favorite either way it's the falcons plus six oh man falcons are 32nd in dva but look i mean come on what like are you are you saying that it's a bad pick or are you saying that like this line just feels crazy to me the saints hype by the way has never just has just never been higher. They match up super well at the Bucs. They got that win in a game that I feel like everyone watched.

Also, the pros Joe's here. This is an enormous split. We got 63% of the bets on the Saints and 74% of the money on the Falcons. This is classic. Yeah, I know you're right. I mean, I just we'll break one of our rules here. Brooke, last time we took Indy, that didn't work for us because Carson Wentz likes throwing the ball to the other team.

So we'll go Atlanta here. I'm with you. Plus six points without knowing who the quarterback is. I do worry, though, that if Hill is the quarterback, they'll just pound Atlanta with the run game like they did last year in that contest. That's my only concern here is that if we take Atlanta and Taysom Hill plays,

Atlanta just can't stop the run well enough. But we'll find out, obviously. Look, we still with our Cowboys pick last week after attacking injury news. I think it's funny. We talked about it. We're like, yeah, I still like the Cowboys favorite. And we were right.

They won the game. That's right. Yep. One of those rules has always been against her cousins in prime time um hey speaking of the cowboys they're playing denver this week uh dallas laying nine is that the line we want to go with jeff now yeah i i don't to me it doesn't matter because i don't like this game at all um yeah i you know the broncos are they won a game which is good but i think they're pretty bad right now. Dallas is off a primetime victory.

All the money's on Dallas, and Dallas are probably out without their left tackle. We don't know if Dak is back quite yet. I think if Dak's not back, you take the Broncos plus the points here. But for me, it's a hard stay away. Yeah, if Cooper rushes in, I guess I would take Denver. I watched Denver last week a fair amount because they played my terrible football team. And they're awful.

Like, they have a lot of talent. They're the end of the game. Their clock management, their play calling, their execution is just terrible. They're just carried with some talent at like wide receiver and corner. They are a really bad team. I'd like to generally fade them more. If Dak is in i i would consider the 10 or less but uh we'll pass for now um the next one up here man patriots panthers this one's bounced around three three and a half four it keeps getting bet towards the patriots i i mean we we don't know the deal of Sam Darnold,

so it's hard to really have an opinion here unless you're really strong on the Pats. They said he was back at practice. The hard part of this is everyone's going to bet on New England. I don't kind of want to be in that spot, but I think they are going to kind of dominate this game. But I don't want to be having to sit there and watch this game and hope they cover with Mac Jones on the road like in Carolina.

I think this is a state. This is kind of a classic. You just take the Panthers and hold your nose. But we have a couple of those coming up. I'm not doing it, especially with how bad they've looked lately. And, yeah, they beat the lowly Falcons. But the Patriots are playing good football right now. We just – no certainty of quarterback.

That's just – we got to stay away from those. Ugh, pass. Vikings-Ravens. Baltimore off the bye is a six-point favorite against the reeling. Is it fair to say, Vikings? What's your take? What's the number at? It's a Vegas one, right?

Six. The problem with Baltimore is the injuries are so much. But you have to figure off a buy. They're healthier, and they're feeling good. They've studied the Vikings for two weeks. I would be comfortable taking Baltimore here,

but I don't think it's one of our better plays. But I do think that this is a spot where they do kind of hammer the Vikings. The Vikings look dead in the water, and this is a way to just kind of crush their season. Every time we keep thinking, oh, Minnesota's going to bounce back, they're going to make some plays, they just sort of don't.

So I'm okay with taking Baltimore here in this spot. Yeah, I think you're probably right. If I recall correctly, Harbaugh is very good off of a bye. Yes. I believe he's 11-2. I'm just trying to quickly confirm that. I'm not saying it. It's either 10-3 or 11-2.

So they're going to be well prepared for this one. I mean, I will say, though, Baltimore is a little bit of like, they're really inconsistent. Like some weeks they look unbelievable, and some weeks they look unbelievable and some weeks they look like so beatable and minnesota's kind of the same like minnesota you have faith in them one week and then kirk cousins lays an egg this is a really hard one to to predict for that reason it's like what's who's gonna show up i my my lean was the vikings plus the six

because i still think that they're pretty good, and they just had a really crappy game last week. But I don't know. I don't feel strongly either way. I think we have better plays here. I can't outback the Vikings here, man. Yeah. Well, let's maybe align on this one.

We've got Cleveland at Cincinnati. Cincinnati is a short home favorite at two and a half. This is going to bounce to two and a half and three probably for the next day. Cincinnati? I think so here. And this is a big line movement, but it's not enough. It's not past, you know, the critical number. At least open up at like, look at the line was Browns minus four.

The Browns have not looked good against any team that can play football this season. Like, we keep thinking like, Oh, it's going to change around. It's going to change up. It's like, it just hasn't. And also to look how the,

the Bengals got embarrassed last weekend and, and they're going to come out with a little piss and vinegar, man. And they're, they're going to come out wanting to, to prove that their record and all the accolades they have have been justified. And I just don't think that right now with the injuries that Cleveland has and what Baker beat up in this Odell drama,

they're going to be able to keep this game within a field goal. I'm going to take the Bengals here minus the two and a half. For sure. Bengals run defense is top five this year in yards per carry. You mentioned Baker's injury. Also like everyone's down on the Bengals now, but they were in a trap game on their third straight row game last week, which at least one of us saw coming.

So I'm going to say that this is my favorite of the week. I really liked the Bengals, especially under three. Got to do it. I'm with you. A hundred percent. One down and maybe Atlanta as well. Gosh, the Bills are laying 14 to 14 and a half in Jacksonville.

I've got a great nugget here. The last time the Bills were favored by more than two touchdowns, 1992, Jim Kelly at Indy, and the Bills were 16 and a half point favorites and lost straight up in overtime. There you go. A couple things this year. Teams who won by 14 plus, favored

by 14 plus the next game are 66% against the spread, including 5-0 road neutral. That changed your mind? Not really. Two touchdowns. I mean, at some point, Buffalo just can't keep blowing teams out not because they're not capable of it but like why they've so many like cupcakes on

their schedule it's like one of these games is going to end up being semi-close just because they don't show up i don't know if it's for if we're taking 14 you could maybe 14 and a half no chance yeah i'm i'm i'm out on this game unless unless we're taking um jacks i don't think we are no chance god no gosh i didn't even consider that um okay well i mean it's possible i can't believe you're gonna make me watch this game because i know that you like this one it's houston going to miami it's six and a half right now. Tyrod Taylor, Tyrod Taylor, apparently is back in practice. Is that why you have a lead in this game? Well, even if David Mills plays,

why is Miami six and a half point favorites better than Houston? Miami is not good. They're one and seven. Am I right on that? One and eight? They've won one game. One game this season.

There's week one. They've lost seven in a row. And we look at them like they were last year's team, guys. They're not a good football team right now. And their point differential this year is minus 95. I mean, Texans are minus 122. But I will gladly take the points here with the texans at what was that six and a half right now yep like the dolphins suck and then this whole thing with with tua and like look look the

the the texans inability to have much of any talent like they just trade their best pass rusher i mean that's it's scary i get that i am just i i can't believe i i i'm if tyra plays this number is going to steam on down to three before kickoff i'll grab it now three and a half six and a half yeah all right texans are in good note here uh the texans have the dolphins first round pick how pathetic the dolphins the dolphins sneaky are like in the worst spot of any team in the league they uh they really are not in in good shape here so uh all right we're taking the texans uh gosh we haven't gotten to henry ruggs yet but i mean maybe we can quickly talk about that here along with this game the his raiders his former team now uh is are going to the giants the raiders

are three-point road favorites i'm curious if this line moves at all over the next couple days not that he would have shaped it much but just like what is what a strange situation the raiders are in i don't know let's i'm curious you know if there's anything to say about rugs later than yeah yeah he should spend every the max jail jail sentence, in my opinion, for what he did. You know, this isn't a guy without resources. You have numbers to call to find you a ride. You have the resources to get, to pay for a private chauffeur for an event or going to the bar. You have Uber.

Like, you have many ways to not be speeding 156 miles an hour on, it wasn't the highway, on a street, and then hitting someone and unfortunately killing someone. And it seems like, I read the details of it, they're kind of leaking out. I mean, horrific death, going 156 miles an hour, you hit a car in front of you. Like, you should spend every second of the jail sentence in jail.

Like, whatever the maximum, people will say, well, it's an accident. Okay. Well, too bad. Like I don't stand for it. Like I don't stand for drinking and driving because A, you shouldn't do it. But B, it's because you have the resources to not do it. You have Ubers. You have phone.

You can call a phone number. Like every NFL team gives you the number of like a private limo service or just call a fucking coach hey coach man i'm shit face man like can you come get me can you call me a car like you know i mean instead he drove recklessly and he killed someone he just spent every second of that sentence in jail in my opinion but um so obviously how does this affect the the team it's different than a than a coach uh being fired i mean this is your your teammate who killed someone like it's not it's not just like you got a dui it's he killed someone with his car and the raiders are off a buy they're playing

better football the giants suck at covering home games i mean they're atrocious at covering home games under daniel jones everyone's hurt for the giants i mean there's, there's going to be boos, and there's going to be – I mean, it's going to be like – they're 5-12 the last 17 against the spread at MetLife. There's going to be boos and, like, just – it's going to be – I stay away, man. Yeah.

It's sort of hard to think about this as a football game given the situation there. Just terrible, terrible tragedy at the end of the day i i i don't want to bet on this game i just have i mean just a strange feeling about it i don't know it's a pass why don't we just move on the chargers the another afc west team they're going to philly uh gosh what a strange line jeff this was this is a two-point road favorite for the chargers i feel like three weeks ago this would have been like a 14 point line and it's really shifted as the chargers have

sort of uh repositioned themselves what do you think yeah i don't this is down one and a half and one even in some places um this is an odd line to me um it's mostly down at like you get it at one well i guess we'll take it at two but you he's just telling me that, that Philly is going to win this game outright. Like, that's what we're talking about, right? Like they're not going to win this game. Now, my concern is the Chargers have played bad football last couple of weeks and they can't stop the run.

And the Eagles are trying to try to run the football. I think they ran the ball pretty well against the Lions, but they're off a huge victory chargers need to win in the worst way i would gladly think the chargers here minus the two short road dog i'm good with it yeah this is just i agree i think all of us are overthinking it a little bit because the chargers run d like you said like if boston scott and jordan howard were good running backs they would have been good before last week when they played the lions a classic overation and everyone's down on Herbert. All of a sudden I am a hundred percent on board with the charges here. Right.

It just seems, it just seems like a hundred percent line. Yeah. Yeah. Let's I'm way in on this one. Are we taking two or one and a half? Man. I'm going to look up the difference.

Let's take one and a half. I'm just curious what the consent, because I know this is not the best way to do a podcast at times, but lines do change before we talk here. I see consensus at one and a half. Let's take the one and a half. Yeah, let's do that. MGM has it one and a half.

PointsBet has it at one. Yeah, but I don't see many other people with one. So unless we want to buy half a point. Yeah, one and a half is good. One and a half is fine. All right, let's do it. Next other people with one. So unless we want to buy half a point. Yeah, one and a half is good. One and a half is fine. All right, let's do it. Next up. Next one. Jeez.

Packers, Chiefs, Jordan Love. Chiefs, this line moved, I think, five points, four and a half, five points. It's up to seven and a half now for the Chiefs. I think this line actually got back to almost a pick-em at one point. Yeah, it did. Yeah, I'm staying away. The Chiefs' offense is still in disarray. And their defense is better.

And they might do well against Jordan Love, but they can also give up like 24 points. We saw last weekend how many backup quarterbacks played well, like did some good things. Yeah. I am not touching this game, man. I ain't doing it. I mean mean if i had to pick it i is it crazy to say i would take the packers i'm not saying we should put this in our mix that'd be the smart thing to do they're like we see this all the

time with teams that coming up up against like a tough situation like last week with with the bucks and the saints like jamis goes down they're. The Bucs come all the way back. Like, they should have won that game. But, like, I feel like in these, the Raiders, when Gruden got fired, it's like, when confronted with adversity, I feel like teams like to rise to the challenge. I really think that Jordan Love,

this is Jordan Love's career, potentially, here. I think, I like Green Bay plus a seven and a half, but not enough to say that, like, yeah, everyone should go bet it or agree with me. One last thing on this game. This is a real test for Matt LaFleur. Matt LaFleur's record, this is like the Brady Belichick thing all over again. He's had such a good record since he got to Green Bay.

It's like, okay, do it without Rodgers against the Kansas City Chiefs on the road. Can you do it? Let's see. I mean, tough place to have your first start agreed for a dream love um all right so the next game is uh cardinals at niner's and you have a lean on this i don't have a great one so convince me uh why we're talking to niners this weekend yeah i'm gonna pull up this stat uh that i got from our friends at the action network uh on my phone. So basically, my theory, Jeff, is this, that right now we're sort of halfway through the season,

and it's usually around now. Every year I write in my iPhone, like a thing I learned from the season, from betting for the whole season, right? And every year I write down, remember that the season restarts in week 10. Like every year, like there's just this shift where at the beginning of the year,

you're like, I'm sure this team is good. I'm going to keep betting them. It was around now last year where the chiefs just like started to fall apart, right? It was around now last year, the Cardinals were six and three, and they were first in the NFC West. And they ended up, I don't even think making the playoffs off the top of my head. Cliff Kingsbury, this is the thing, this is the thing that supports that. he's ever been he has closed the season poorly when he was a texas tech he went one and five in his last six games in 2013 two and eight in his last 10 and 14 2 and 4 and 15 2 and 6 and 16 2 and 6 and 17 and 0 and 5 and 18 gets fired goes to the cardinals finishes 2 and seven last year two and five or two years ago

and two and five last year he doesn't close the season well people figure him out and i think kyler murray he looked a little banged up last week they didn't have a ton of fire i just feel like right now this could be the week where it's san francisco they get kittle back they're starting to look a little bit san francisco-y off of their bye. San Francisco always plays well against the Cardinals historically. I just feel like this is the week where we could capitalize on the Cardinals being a little overinflated. And the fact that this line is so close proves to me, I think, that Vegas thinks the 49ers are going to win this one. I mean, Colin Murray's injury is interesting, right? He's got a sprained ankle.

He had a shoulder thing a couple weeks ago. He's getting beat to shit. He's getting hit a bunch lately we know the niner's defense align uh he can get after things um i'm inclined to believe you because i think that that we get signals sent like why is a line the way it's supposed to be and you're like like that seems odd right so what what number do you have one one and a half uh depending on the book vandal one and a half i'll roll the niners are kind of in a must-win situation right now um again murray's a little beat up the niners get some players back this week right the the uh kiddo might be back this week uh they're not good against the spread as the 49ers but i'm i'm going to the niners here plus the one i think one of the problems that the reason that the 49ers haven't been good against

the spread is they've been overrated all season and now they're finally everyone's kind of off of them because they just haven't been good but they looked they looked pretty damn good last week chicago tried to stay in that game justin field said his best game in san francisco i was way out on them and they they more than covered on the road um i feel like this is this could be the week where it's like whoa san francisco back like that's that's coming it's just a matter of time i'm following fading the cardinals i mean it's not been good for us this year but i have no problem doing it anytime you want me to do it i'm in all right well we'll see if uh we'll see if my little theory about week 10 or week 9 is right all right sunday night game man the, the Titans are at the Rams.

No Derek Henry. Probably not Von Miller either, who didn't play last week against Washington for Denver. We'll see. Is there any, do you see any value here? Seven and a half is the number. I like this. I text you, I think Sunday night or Monday morning.

And said, before the henry news he said i like the rams this week at home against the titans yeah i don't i don't anymore now that's over it was like a five now it's a seven seven and a half uh there's a very big like we need to come out strong without derrick revived from the Titans, right? And I worry that that might carry. If they come out fast and they come out scoring some points, they'll be able to kind of roll that throughout the game. The Rams, I feel like they don't play as well at home, right? They play better on the road a little bit there.

I would not touch this game. What do you like? I didn't really have an opinion. I was hoping you'd be strong one way or the other. If I had to lean somewhere over a touchdown, I would take Tennessee. I think I would take the Rams. I think Tennessee, I think your general stance on running backs is well known, but just to drill down if there are some new listeners,

you just don't value them as positionally like it's just it's your it's just your take like derrick henry to you i think this line ended up moving like a point or something without derrick henry and like if davante adams last week moved the line like three points like i think derrick henry should move the line like five points like this guy was has a 100 more carries than Joe Mixon, almost, who's the second most in the league. This guy is their entire team. I just don't understand how Tennessee is going to go

and keep this one close if they can't run the ball. What's their offense? They can throw the ball still, though. That's the thing. But it's all play action. When you watch them, it's not like they're going to be like, cool, we're going to put Tannehill in the pocket and let him operate. What are they without the threat of the run?

We'll find out, but I do not know if this is what I want to wager on right now. Not knowing what they're going to do. Yeah. I mean, that's fair. I respect Vable a lot. Over a touchdown? Yeah. Titans are 6-2, man.

They're coming off some big wins. I don't mean to trash them. I think they're a really good team, but I just think that the Derrick Henry thing, this could be like a 30-point game. 95% of the money is on the Rams. It's pretty wild. So Rams minus 7.5,

you want to put them in the maybes? I mean, how do we look in here? I don't think we have a ton of contenders here. And the hook, too. Oh, Jesus Christ. Yeah, the hook stinks. All right. Because the last game.

Let's finish. Jeff, we're not betting this last game. Ugh, I know. It's Chicago at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's only in six. Because we're not taking Chicago, right? No. That would be the move.

No. I mean, I don't know what to do with Pittsburgh, man. They just keep winning games. I don't think they're good at all. And Chicago is just a mystery team to me every week. And this is a terrible matchup for them. It's sort of like a tougher 49ers. Yeah, I don't want to touch this game.

Not at all. The series won that game with deep. I mean, I think that if you're looking at this game, you're thinking, like, Justin Fields under props. Like, whatever his under passing total is, you just take that because the Steelers are going to hit and batter him all game. Won't throw the ball very much.

But the Bears' defense is okay. Like, the Steelers can't score. They won 15-10 last weekend. It's like they won this game 35-30. So, I would stay away from this game. I'm not going to touch it. Unless you're doing adjusted fields, like any under props. I feel like this is a great spot for a tease here.

I think this is like a great Steelers. Steelers down to pick them. Throw them in a tease. Maybe do the Chiefs to minus one, minus one and a half, something like that. Yeah, there's some good tease opportunities. You mentioned the Chiefs is a tease opportunity. Colts maybe.

Who? Colts maybe. You want to do the seven. You're not under a field goal. I mean, if you get like the Cowboys are still at 10. Yeah. The Cowboys come down under nine. Yeah.

Right? Right? Bills? Maybe tease the Bills down to seven yeah well we are not here to take teases jeff we've we've got to take some we've got to take some actual lines you tease the johns up to nine if you wanted to all right so so far it looks like we have here's we have throw money in the hudson river that's fine yeah no atlanta. Atlanta plus six. Cincinnati minus two and a half. Houston plus six and a half.

Chargers minus a point and a half. SF plus one. And the other one we said was a maybe was Rams minus seven and a half. We'll lose the Rams. You're not feeling it. I'm not really feeling it either. I sort of spontaneously found myself making that argument. I really like Cincy.

I really like the Niners. And you like Atlanta. And I like Atlanta. And I'm good with the niners and you like atlanta and i like atlanta and i'm good with the chargers for sure and i like houston and houston makes sense yep houston's a good bet i think we ended up with five good ones when i felt like the whole podcast i was like jeez i don't feel like we have any but we do well we're we were what six and four in the last two weeks so we're digging out well the schedule gods gave us a favor here there's no lions and no washington oh my god we've lost every single week and we did get we did get by the way a little bit of luck yesterday uh this past weekend for the first time all season with with

the bills late cover at the end there so i'll take uh that's right i'll take it man we we have a lot of uh we're still like not even are we even at at 40% yet? Nope. 37%. But guess what? We were like 24% two weeks ago. So we're digging our way out, Matt. We're digging our way out. Inch by inch. Please, um,

uh, follow us on, uh, on any social media, but also, uh, rate and review the podcast. If you're,

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A lot happening in the National Football League, cultural playoffs as well. Join us next week on Monday for our college football show and on Tuesday for a recap of everything that happens in the National Football League. Have a great weekend, everyone. Good luck on your wagers. Talk to you guys Monday.