Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Sam Darnold Sees Ghosts, Dallas Saves Its Season & Buffalo Deserves Respect

Episode Date: October 22, 2019

Subscribe to The Athletic now for 40% off: theathletic.com/smarterthanyou Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you is brought to you by GameTime, your new go-to app for the best deals on last-minute tickets. Did you know that NFL ticket prices tend to drop right before the game starts? The last Chiefs game I went to, I used the GameTime app. Quick and easy to use, and they track all ticket prices in real time from thousands of trusted sellers, and they show you the best last-minute deals with prices up to 60% off. and they show you the best last-minute deals with prices up to 60% off. More than 12 million fans have downloaded the GameTime app and discovered the fastest and easiest way to get into the game. It's a simple, easy two-tap checkout process to get your tickets right onto your phone.

So head to the App Store or Play Store now to download GameTime and score awesome deals on last-minute tickets. on last-minute tickets. When I talk to the coaches, I just got to be, you know, straight up. And, you know, for me, I just got to see the field a lot better. That's kind of what that means. And, you know, just it was a rough day out there. From the Athletics, I'm Jeff Schwartz. from the athletic i'm jeff schwartz the patriots are still undefeated because of course they are the cowboys saved their season but the packers are the class of the nfc it's thursday october

22nd and this is jeff schwartz is smarter than you i am jeff schwartz thank you for tuning in after a great great weekend of nfl action producer g's going to throw some takes at me that he has seen over the weekend regarding football. I'm going to tell you if I like them. If I don't, we're going to argue back and forth. And unfortunately, Gabe's going to start with a subject that hurts him as the Jets fan he is. But nonetheless, we're going with the Patriots-Jets first.

Okay. Let's just – how about this? Let's just end the season now. The Pats win the Super Bowl again. We don't need to live through three more months of this. Okay, they pitched another shutout last night. Beat my Jets. Sam Darnold,

I think, probably summed up the Pats' D best. Take a listen. Seeing ghosts. Yep, that's right, Sam. You're seeing ghosts. So Sanchez had his butt fumble. Sam now has his ghosts. The internet is's right, Sam. You're seeing ghosts. So Sanchez had his butt fumble. Sam now has his ghosts. The internet is going crazy with this. So I'll just put it to you this way,

Jeff. Is it Sam Darnold having the worst football night of his life, seeing ghosts all around him, or is maybe the Pats defense actually this good? Well, the Pats defense is actually this good. And I know they played nobody i get it right they played no one everyone wants to beat that drum but they're kicking the living shit out of

everybody all right and when you're a good team you do that i cannot stress this enough how many times and let's look at the at the jets and cowboys for example right the cowboys might be one of the favorites to win the nC. They go into New York, they make Sam Darnold look like a pro bowler, and they lose that game, right? What do the Patriots do? The Patriots go into New York last night, and they confuse Sam Darnold to where he's seeing ghosts.

They zero pressure him. They drop out. He's throwing these lame ducks up in the air, and they completely and totally dominate. That's what you do when you're a good team, no matter the competition. Yes, they're going to face the Chiefs later this year. They're going to face the Browns. They're going to face the Ravens, the Texans. They're not going to be, quote unquote, as good as they were last night, but they are an elite level defense. Bill Belichick is calling this defense. He's in charge

of the defense. We saw him last night even going over up 24-0, gathering defense up, coaching. He's loving. I think this is one of his favorite years to coach because it's a young defense. It's a multiple defense. When I say multiple, Gabe, and you saw this last night, they have basically the back end of their secondary, right? So they have Gilmore and the McCourty guys, and they're kind of like set in the back end.

But the rest of the defense, all seven guys, even if you want to put one of the McCourty twins as a safety kind of in that group, they can come from anywhere and bring pressure and then have a bunch of guys drop out all over the place

and then one week they do that. So one week they do what they did to the Jets. I guarantee against Baker Mayfield and the Browns next week, they're going to be

a different defense because if you run the same type of pressure packages, Odell and Landry can beat one-on-one guys and they might score some points that way. So there are multiple,

they can move and shift. I think Belichick's enjoying the process of coaching this team. And yes, they are that good. And then last point about them for right now, I know you're going to, you can argue with me here. They just traded for Muhammad Sanu today.

So their offense got better off a 33, nothing victory last night. Okay. Wait a second. just training for Muhammad Sanu today. So their offense got better off a 33-0 victory last night. Okay, wait a second. Like, Muhammad Sanu is hardly making a difference on this team. Their wide receivers are awful. Yes, he's making a difference on this team. If he provides them a little bit of offense, then that's a big difference. Their offense is not very good at the moment. All we ever hear is that just, you know, Tom Brady needs to trust you. They were running like preseason last night with Jacoby Myers I thought there was a law firm they're running him around could to get

timing right with Tom Brady what about Mohamed Sanu he's a third wide receiver on most teams why would he make a difference like I don't know that Tom Brady needs Mohamed Sanu they've run 700 other pretty good guys in there who don't work he just needs guys who run routes and Sanu runs very good routes he's got very good hands he's very tough and he blocks like all the things that Bill Belichick would want a wide receiver all right so but I want to go back to something that yes you were talking about with the defense so I get it Sam Darnold saw ghosts and got confused I have been saying since he was drafted that Sam Darnold is always a little confused he's been a turnover machine all due respect to Sam, he gives the ball away.

He seems a little lost out there at times. Too often, actually. So are we sure the Patriots, who still have not played very tough competition, are really this good, or is it just Belichick doing the defensive version of what he did with offense a few years back? Just saying, screw it, I'm running it up. So I like the stat by football outsourcers called DVOA, right? So it's defensive adjusted value over average.

So what they do is they obviously grade the plays that you have, and they adjust it based on strength of schedule. So obviously it's adjusted for the Patriots having the second or third easiest schedule so far in the NFL. And they're close to the best defense they've ever recorded through seven weeks of the NFL season. It's hard to, and it's interesting on Twitter to see all the former players talking. All in agreement, the Patriots defense is amazing. Even though we, of course, acknowledge who they played.

even though we, of course, acknowledge who they played. It's hard for people to understand that because even when you are a good defense, you'll have times where you don't play as well. The Bears, for example, right? The Bears' defense right now is not playing very well, partly because their offense is so bad, their defense has kind of given up in certain situations. Give up is the wrong word to use, but that's kind of what it is, right?

They're still playing hard, but you're not as good on defense if your offense sucks. You just can't do it. There's too much emotion involved on the defensive side of the ball. You need some help from the offense. So even good defenses allow a late touchdown in a game. Have a broken play here and there. Don't pick the ball off in certain situations. The Patriots don't do any of that. They don't allow late touchdowns.

They don't allow easy touchdowns. They allow none of it, Gabe. None. And that to me is the difference. Is that there is no garbage touchdowns, no't allow easy touchdowns they allow none of it gabe none and that to me is the difference is that there is no garbage touchdowns no missed assignments not a lot of penalties you know last night i think 27 had like four penalties on defense they don't make mistakes even when the game is out of hand and that to me is the difference between them and other good defenses yeah their plus minus is as good as it's been in nfl history in like a hundred years since the 1920 um buffalo americans yeah which apparently is a team that

existed 24 nothing lead in five of seven games i don't even know how that's possible they're just i i guess i wonder if we're seeing them like really pound teams that aren't good and that anyone and a lot of people in postgame, we're talking about the Colts. Anyone who like can kind of understand how football is played can rival them a little bit, you know, and that Tom Brady can't do nine minute drives against most teams like this will start to even out. I'm looking for something here, Jeff. I mean, the Jets were done with them. I think that we just need something. Those of us who can't root for the Patriots to just believe that maybe there's a way someone beats them.

And you're giving me nothing right now. You're just telling me it's guaranteed. So here's the last thing I'll throw at you. Our guy Shefty got takey in pregame. I know. How about that? Let's just listen to Adam Schefter, who is a serious dude throwing this theory out there. Has he put his hope for sale? Yes.. Has he put his home for sale? Yes. Has his trainer put his home for sale? Yes. Has he set up his contract to void after the season to become a free agent? Yes. So if he's selling his home and his trainer's selling his home and he's voiding his contract, what does that tell you?

Okay, he's talking about Tom Brady. So here's the only hope we have, Football America. Tom Brady's never going to retire. We're all going to die before he's done playing football. But maybe he's leaving New England and going somewhere else. Jeff, is there anything to this theory from Schefter? I don't think there is because there's also reports that they're closing on a new house in New England as well. I'm guessing he has a few houses.

I don't think that's much of a clue. Correct. No, look, I think Tom Brady is still having a lot of fun coaching. I mean, coaching playing, I should say. That was a Freudian slip. He is coaching. He's coaching a bunch of no-names into being Super Bowl champs. I think he's having a lot of fun still.

Well, I was about to say Belichick as well. They're both still having a lot of fun doing this. And if you're having fun doing it, you're going to keep doing it. I mean, right? There's no, why would you stop? He's not getting hurt, right? They just, all they do is win.

I mean, the only thing I can think of is the reason why he'd stop is his family says enough is enough. And if his family says keep going and Bill Belichick keeps going, then they're going to keep playing. I think that eventually the Chiefs, I think next year,

might have a chance to beat them. But as constructed now, there's no team in the AFC, in my opinion, that's remotely close to beating them in Foxborough for a playoff game. right this is a really depressing start um i don't know like who like who in the afc is even there's no one right the nfc is a much tougher division and much better quarterbacks but but jeff you're coming to this conclusion after week 7 and 2019 season i've lived in this reality, my entire adult life.

This is nothing new, man. It's an inevitability. You had the, you had, you had the Mark Sanchez years. All right. What are you talking?

That was a decade ago. And we got lucky in two games. These people in new England have dominated everything. We're, we're the worst victims of it, but talk to people in Pittsburgh, talk to people in Baltimore, you know, talk to anyone along 95 on the East coast. Like it makes its way down to you and Charlotte. Everybody is dealing with the fact that these

guys cannot stop. They're zombies, man. He's 42 years old. What the fuck is happening? I have a buddy on the team now. so I talk to him about what happens there. He's like, yeah, just like everyone just buys in. Bill doesn't really yell or scream at anybody. Everyone just does their job, and you know that it helps you win, and you just do it. It's just so gross. I can't talk about it any longer. Let's move on.

Let's switch to another team. This is going to get other people fired up. These people don't bother me, but half the damn country hates the Cowboys. Okay, so let's just put this out there. If you're following along on the Internet, the Cowboys saved their season with a win over the Eagles on Sunday night. That's at least according to many people at ESPN and Fox and some of the other places we love to watch.

They are 4-3 back atop the division. But remember, they won three in a row to start the season. Dak was MVP. They were sure shot Super Bowl champions. Then they lost three in a row. Season was over. Now they beat the Eagles and were what? Putting them in the playoffs?

Going to the Super Bowl? I don't know what to make of the Cowboys, but apparently their season is saved, Jeff. So I don't know what to make of the Cowboys, but apparently their season is saved, Jeff. So, I don't know what to make of them either, and that's what worries me about the Cowboys. It feels like Kelly Moore was calling the plays again. Now,

everyone was healthy, right? I'm sorry to interrupt you so quickly. Why is this confusing to people? It's kind of a fact. Was he or wasn't he calling plays in the wins and the losses? He't he calling plays no he was still calling plays but i think the offensive identity feels like the the last three weeks previous to the eagles game jason garrett took some command of the offense i mean just it structurally looked different now maybe you can say that hey they were from they're playing from behind the last

couple of weeks and this week they were not which they were right? They came out fast and defensively played well. And so you can say, hey, we can do what we want to do. But they weren't behind by that much early in the Saints game or early in the pack. I mean, the offensive identity looks completely different. And I think it's – Kelmore's still calling the plays, but it feels like they went back to what they have done really well. And look,

if they're only going to play well when they're ahead early in games, they're not a really good football team. Now, most of the guys were back this week, but this is the team. I can't figure them out. I really can't. You know,

they have, they're at the giants. They're going to win that game. We'll know a lot about them in this three game stretch, actually really four games, really five games or six games. I mean, they have their way out. I mean, they're way out.

I mean, look, so they go at New York, right? Then they have Minnesota, at Detroit, at New England, Buffalo, at Chicago, the Rams, and Eagles, and Redskins. So that stretch, Minnesota, Detroit, New England, Buffalo, Chicago, L.A., we'll know a lot more about them after that. I don't think the Eagles right now are terribly great. And they dominated a poor team. So I don't know what Eagles right now are terribly great. And they dominated a poor team. So I don't know what to make of them.

I want to buy into them. I picked them to win the Super Bowl. I keep saying that. I picked them to make the Super Bowl. Defensively, they look much better, which is very good in my opinion. Offensively, obviously, we know that when they run the plays that Dak is effective at, they're going to be good. And so they went out and dominated the Eagles.

Can I pose one theory that those of us who don't fully understand football think? When they run the ball, they play well and they win. When they're just slinging it around trying to show that Dak is worth the money, they don't necessarily win. It's kind of that basic. Tony Pollard, big part of the offense. Ezekiel Elliott had a great game. I don't know.

Is it more complicated than just run the football with your great running backs? Why isn't that the answer? Well, it is because when you get behind, then how do you function on offense? Balance is the best case scenario, right? Because to my point, what I just said, if you're behind early in the game, like 10-0, like let's say it was flipped. The Cowboys were up, I think, what? They were up 10-0 in this game.

So let's say Eagles were up 10-0 or up 14-0, 17-0, whatever it is. If the Cowboys can only get back in the game by running the football, they're not going to win those games typically. You have to be able to be balanced on offense. So if you just rely on the run game to set up everything else you do, when you get behind in a football, they're not going to win those games typically. You have to be able to be balanced on offense. So if you just rely on the run game to set up everything else you do, when you get behind in a game, you're not going to have the opportunity to come back. And that's why I think they should be a kind of pass game first,

even though obviously the run game is still a huge part of it. But when you only have one way to win, that's why I'm not high on the Ravens really, and we're on top of the Bills a little bit as well. I'm not a fan of one way to win. That's why I'm not high on the Ravens really. And we're on top of the, the, the bills a little bit as well. I'm not a fan of one way to win. It doesn't work in the playoffs. You have to be multiple on what you do. Yeah.

Well, I mean you, and you certainly after week one, when they beat the giants and I was not convinced that they'd done anything special. You, you've talked a lot about that. And I think,

I think you've been more right than wrong on the, on the Cowboys, Jeff, but I think you were a little too hot on them and now because they beat the Eagles everyone claiming they've saved the season like I have they well I I think their schedule you know when you look at this Minnesota Detroit New England Buffalo Chicago by that point Chicago might have given up we'll find out and the Rams and look the Eagles in week 16 you're in Philly it's going to beilly it's going to be cold it's going to be windy might be wet might be snowing eagles might still be in the wild card hunt that's not a gimme game as well um so we'll know more i i just i'm not sure i'm all back in

the cowboys right now and i just i you know i i don't they're just an odd team to figure out man i i gotta see them do it against uh against Minnesota at home in a couple of weeks. They'll go to New York and they'll beat the crap out of the Giants. But I don't think they're the contenders right now in the NFC. I don't know what would change my mind other than winning some of these games. But again, I go back to this game. We saw the 49ers, without two of their tackles and their fullback, go into Los Angeles and win a game, right? We see the Patriots

right now with a backup left tackle, a backup center, no fullback. I mean, they had linebacker at fullback last night. They put an offensive lineman at fullback last night on the goal line. They're able to run their offense as well. We see plenty of other teams around the NFL able to weather a couple injuries, but it seems like whenever the left tackle is out for the Cowboys, they just automatically cannot play. And if you look at their stats, it's totally true. There's something like 29 of 14 when Tyron Smith plays the left tackle,

and there's 6 and 5 when he doesn't play. And the points per game drop by 5, the sacks go up, and that's coaching in my opinion. That's why I can't trust this team right now is because I think their coaching is not very good. And if you can't find a way to win a game without a left tackle, if anything bad happens to you the rest of the season, you have no chance to win. And so that, to me, is another indictment on the coaching staff, which means I'm not quite sure how they're going to compete against these better defenses coming down the stretch. are going to compete against these better defenses coming down the stretch. So keep the big man bias going for a second here, because this is all I was thinking about is that left tackle position is the variable for Dallas, one of the better teams out there.

Other teams are winning without Pro Bowl quarterbacks right now. You know, like some of the best teams in football are leaning on backups at quarterback and running back. And we're hearing about it every damn week. Oh, well, they won without the quarterback, or they lost because they didn't have the quarterback. We don't hear it enough with the Cowboys, but is it a coaching excuse? Because really, why can't they just find the next best guy

and still win games they should win? It doesn't seem complicated. Well, that's my point. It is a coaching problem. It doesn't seem complicated. Well, that's my point. It is a coaching problem. It shouldn't be that complicated. Look, the Eagles won the Super Bowl without a Hall of Fame left tackle, a middle linebacker, a quarterback. And so to me, they don't adjust very well.

So that's kind of your point about, hey, let's just be a running team. Well, when you're just a running team, what happens when the run is taken away? Then what do you become? And that's my problem with the Cowboys. I feel like they're a little bit too one-dimensional they they can be now i don't think they have to be but their thinking is too one-dimensional to win over the long hole if we look at the packers we're going to talk about now they pass the ball they run the ball they play defense like they

compliment themselves very well i'm not sure the cowboys quite do that to the same extent all right well then let's talk about the Packers because they're 6-1. They just kicked the crap out of the Raiders on Sunday. Rodgers threw for five touchdowns, ran for another one. I believe it was his first perfect passer rating of his career and in Packers history. I only heard that 6,000 times this weekend.

Thank you, everybody. I think it was like the fourth in Packers history or something like that, but close enough. Okay, so even though I heard it that many times, I still screwed it up. I think you, everybody. I think it was like the fourth in Packers history or something like that, but close enough. Even though I heard it that many times, I still screwed it up. Point is, he had one of the best games he's had in his career. He looks like that MVP A-Rod we saw a decade ago.

Guys, the memes are fun. I get it, but can we have a little bit of a reality check, please? They beat the Raiders, who were meh going into the year all right they barely edged out the so-so lions they lost to those same crappy eagles we just talked about they beat the broncos who outwardly stink and the bears who as you kind of just put it might sneaky stink a little bit all right their only good win was over the vikings who by the way

may stink on any given day with kirk cousins so So put me among the hot takers who are not buying the Packers yet. I'm sorry. I'm on that side. Think about this, though. They beat the Bears, and the Bears still thought they were good. They beat the Vikings, obviously. I think the Vikings are going to be a good team. I picked them to win the North, so I'm glad they're playing better.

They won at the Cowboys. And winning a road game against a team that's going to win the NFC East is no easy task, right? The Lions are competitive. Now, they're not, I don't think, terribly great, and they've shown that. And the Raiders obviously got blown out. How about this, though? I think rarely you can point to one instance where a single play changed a game, right? I mean, like, sometimes we can say, well, this play was a big impact,

but car fumbling at the back of the end zone when the raiders were about to go up i think 17 14 um was the turning point that game he fumbles again like an idiot he's a yard away from the the pylon sticks his arm out ball goes back you know out of bounds through you know out the back of the end zone side of the end zone whatever touchback packers come down and score and go up um go up 21 10 and the ball game's over right like one play did that so at that point though the Packers were in kind of a dogfight then obviously they they took over at the very end um a couple reasons why I like the Packers game I don't ramble a little bit here one is defensively the best

defense Rogers had in years. That's very important. For years, he's had a terrible defense, and this defense is really good. And I think that we owe, at least I owe them an apology, because I doubted why they were spending so much draft capital the last couple years on defensive players, especially in the

defensive backfield, when they should have been getting weapons for Rodgers. But they're right. They built the defense up. They signed the Smith brothers. They're not brothers, but they signed the Smith brothers. Defense has been outstanding. Offensively, what's been impressive with me is they've gone better each

and every week under Matt LaFleur. So we saw some early struggles in the season, right? New offense takes eight to ten weeks to fully get the offense going. And now we've seen the offense every single week pick up and pick up, even with backup wide receivers and Jimmy Graham, who's, I don't know, okay, tight end now. Just kind of each and every week,

pick up, pick up, and pick up. And so I think they're legit contenders. The Niners, for example, I think are good, but the Niners have played no one. At least the Packers have played winning teams and beaten them. Okay, but let's differentiate between you think they're contenders which obviously they look like they're going to

make the playoffs at this point and are they the top of the NFC because the top of the NFC is confusing all right the betting public would tell you that the Saints are still ahead of the Packers in terms of futures odds right so that's that's world. I don't know if that's the right way to look at this, but are you willing to put the Packers at the top ahead of the Saints who don't even have Breeze playing but look this good? Well, let's see when Breeze comes back what the team looks like.

I think they'll be very good. But probably for just now, I think that there's a way where the Saints can obviously beat the Packers, but we don't know what Braves is going to be like when he gets back. And he's going to immediately start when he's healthy. As he should. I think here's what it is for me. Everyone has seen Aaron Rodgers be the best quarterback alive

and maybe of all time. We've witnessed it a few times in his career, and it feels really good. But I think we too quickly get like, okay, it's happening again. We're going back to that version of Aaron Rodgers, and we like the idea of it so much that we like overhype them on wins that aren't that special. So yeah, he threw a bunch of touchdowns. That's what Aaron Rodgers does. He threw one more than a normal good game.

Like it just feels like an overreaction to me. But you're telling me. You seem like you're a quarterback hater today. You hate on Tom Brady. You hate on Dak Prescott. You hate on Aaron Rodgers. He had a perfect pass rate. He threw for five touchdowns.

I had five total touchdowns. He was amazing. He was. He was. He put 80% of his passes. Five touchdowns. He had a six. Sorry. Five passing touchdowns. One amazing he was he was he put 80 of his passes five touchdowns he had a six sorry five passing touchdowns one rushing obviously um adjusted yards per attempt 17 i mean what do you what more do you want for him to do i didn't think that you cared about like silly stats like

a quarterback rating i thought you had some like super analytical stats that like undermined that i didn't know that you were going to throw that at me as as your way of telling me rogers was great i thought you'd like to go some like deep cuts with your dvoas and it's not out for this week yet okay but he's but i mean qbr is is a stat that people seem to like and he's high he's moving up each and every week on the qbr scale it's not obviously uh he started i think pretty on that. That accounts for rushing totals as well. So I'm not really sure. Again, I'm not a big fan of using rushing totals as a reason why a quarterback is good or not good. But Rodgers is climbing up the boards for QBR. All right. Well, we'll keep an eye on him. I guess I'm just, all I'm trying to say is Aaron Rodgers makes everyone want to immediately forget the past and say, oh my God, the Packers are here.

They're the best team in the NFC. And I don't think that they've proven that yet. I think they're a playoff team. The defense, though, is the difference in my opinion. It's not Rodgers. The defense this year. All right. Then I was missing it.

The Twitter machine thinks it's the guy with the mustache. He's also playing well but i'm telling you in my opinion it's the defense that's the difference for why i like the packers compared to just hey rogers had a great game oh okay then you're gonna have a great time admitting that the bills are good the defense is very good yeah but their offense sucks okay whoa whoa big boy come on how ho ho let's let let's let bills mafia have some shine here they're five and one get out of here okay they have the second best d in the AFC behind those pats we talked about. They got a quarterback who can make plays.

They've won some close games with Josh Allen. All right. Right now, we put this question to a bunch of the folks at The Athletic on Dave's show, Football Fact Check. We said, who are the wildcard teams in the AFC? Unanimous. The Bills. Everyone said the Bills. It was a mix after that.

The Raiders, the Colts, the Texans. There's a lot of choices. The Bills was on everyone's scorecard. Okay? So like a drunk dude in Zubaz breaking through a cheap card table, the Bills are inevitably headed to the playoffs. Fact. They are.

I agree with you. Oh! But their offense is atrocious. Josh Allen is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this season. And there's no denying that. And Bill's friends, I know you're going to say, well, he just wins football games. Well, Alex Smith won a bunch of football games, right?

I mean, like, oh, so what? You're winning this because of your, first of all, your defense. You're right. It's outstanding. Your defense is absolutely outstanding. Now, I know I can say out of one side of my mouth, the Patriots and their schedule doesn't matter to why I feel they're still really good. But on the other hand, I can say the Bills' schedule is one of the reasons why I think they're very good so far this season.

They played an atrocious schedule so far, and they've taken advantage of said atrocious schedule so far. But they haven't won the games pretty like the Patriots have. They beat the Jets by one single point. They beat the Giants by 14. That was more like their up-all game by like 17. They beat the Bengals by four at home. Lost the Patriots.

Went to Tennessee, scored 14 points, went 14-7. And they were losing to the Dolphins in the third quarter at home this past weekend. I mean, come on, guys. Yes, you're 5-1. Your defense is good enough to get you into the playoffs because you have the Eagles next, then the Redskins. Still have to play the Dolphins. Now, the back-end of your schedule is a little bit tougher.

We'll find out a little bit more about you. But Josh Allen has not played well this season. Any way you want to cut, there's not a single stat but Josh Allen has not played well this season. Anyway, you want to cut. There's not a single stat that shows he's played well outside of being five and one. His QBR is not good. His PFF score is not good.

His football outsider score is not good. His adjusted yard area is not good. He's not been good. So what about the idea of them improving the way that the Patriots just did? They've got a couple, you know, you got a good receiver in Cole Beasley. He does his job well. Oh, you mean trading for someone?

Yeah, why not go after a big guy, a big target? I don't think it matters for Josh. Josh Allen overthrew an open wide receiver by seven yards the other day. He had a guy wide open for touchdowns, just overthrew him by seven or eight yards. He's got a cannon for an arm, man. He can't control that thing. Well, isn't that a problem? I'm just saying.

He's got some zip on it jeff congratulations like this we worry about things that don't matter like congratulations he's got a great strong arm i heard he hurt the receiver's fingers he throws so damn so did brett farve i mean like brett farve hall of famer okay yeah yeah um but this quarterback stat he's thinking about quarterback wins this why, look, I used to be the same way. Oh, this guy just won. But Gabe, we have so many resources now to look at that back up our film to say, hey, I know the quarterback's winning, but here's why they're winning.

Or here's his actual play quantified by a stat that I trust. We used to not have that services, right? So we would say, yeah, Josh Allen, really good five and one. That's all we had for him. We didn't have a QBR. We didn't have a pro football focus. We didn't have football outsiders.

We didn't have EPA, adjusted expected points and average, whatever. I don't even know what that sounds for, but I know it's a good stat to use. We didn't have any of this stuff. Now we do. And so we can evaluate players differently, especially the quarterback position than we've ever been able to do.

Yeah, you're right. It's definitely better now that we have a bunch of nerds with spreadsheets telling us that a winning quarterback isn't a winner. I much prefer this. I'm really glad those guys came along and bounced my guy Tebow out of the league, even though all he did was win. I'm so happy that a bunch of people cut algorithms. Yeah, okay, cool. Good stat. Come up with another acronym.

He completed 48 the quarterback can sling it and run the guys are having fun they're jumping through tables in the parking lot everything's good in buffalo except if you're a freaking nerd um well i'm definitely not a nerd um but his uh his performance has not been very good there's no way there's not a single thing besides that you can say hey um they're're five and one that says that really anything. And look, it's funny. We question Jimmy Garoppolo, who's six and oh right now. We question him, right?

We say, oh, you know, I'm not quite sure if he's the guy. But if you question Josh Allen, if you question Lamar Jackson, it's like the worst thing ever. But you question Jimmy G, everyone's like, yeah, that makes sense. Well, that's because he's boring and handsome and he comes from the Tom Brady world. He's been kissed into success. These other guys that you just mentioned are underdogs. And they're athletic and they're fun to watch. Josh Allen was the seventh pick in the draft.

How is he an underdog? Well, you know, people didn't expect this out of him. Lamar Jackson is an underdog, I'd say. Okay, so that's why people are giving them a little extra. But one, Josh Allen was the seventh pick in the draft. All right, fine. You got me there. Turns out the Patriots are a pretty good football team.

You want to stay plugged in to the New England Patriots Monday through Saturday. You got to check out the Razor Show on the Athletic Podcast Network. Nick Underhill, Jeff Howe, and two world champion Matt Chatham lead you through a mix of fun and smart football as they break down all the news from Bill Belichick's team at Foxborough. So stay plugged into the Pats' undefeated season with the Razor Show on The Athletic. Subscribe today. Let's move to moving the line.

All right, that's where I throw a bunch of bets at you. These are over-unders. Most of them are made up. A few are kind of real-ish. So let's start with the team that you've talked about a lot this season, the Chiefs. I want to know how many wins in their next four games over-under 2.5.

Obviously, that's a question about the health of Patrick Mahomes, but 2.5 wins in their next four. I would say under because they have the Packers and Vikings the next two weeks, and they could have easily, I think, lost those games with Mahomes. And so I think they're going to lose those two.

I like Matt Moore. I think he'll do a great job, actually. But they're looking more to Alex Smith's offense than Pat Mahomes' offense. And the Packers and Vikings are really good. That's part of it, too. I think that the Vikings especially will just run the ball every single play. I think they're going to shred the Chiefs defense um then they play at tennessee and at los angeles um which really will be a home game for the chiefs anyways um and those two teams

tennessee and the charge aren't very good now tennessee's defense is pretty good uh but i think they lose probably the next two games okay so let's agree that if if the reports we've heard are true and that mahomes will be back in a few weeks and that he can then play out the rest of the season and into the playoffs, let's give them the division, even if they lose a couple under Moore. Now they're in the division. They probably don't have a bye, but maybe they even have a bye. How worried are we, though, about the time that Mahomes will miss

and whatever he comes back looking like? Can he be himself? Well, this is why I think you have to take your time with him this season and I know that it's hard for fans to understand this but this season in my opinion was never the year they were going to win it's next year I know that sounds crazy but because they need to keep adding to the defense and And I figured Mahomes would regress. That's the wrong word to use, because when you go from like 50 touchdown passes to 48, it's regression, but it's not really, right?

I mean, you just, you had a crazy number of touchdown passes. And I think that the Chiefs take their time, let him come back when he's healthy, and worry about obviously the future of the franchise, not trying to win this season. And I don't know if coaches and front office staff feel that way. when he's healthy and worry about obviously the future of the franchise, not trying to win this season. And it's, I don't know if coaches in front office staff feel that way. I know as a fan,

someone who has watched them play and someone who, who kind of, uh, uh, you know, makes predictions about how things are going to go. I never thought this would be the year anyways. I would just like kind of let him come back and make sure it's completely

healthy and worry about more than next year. You just described what it's like to be a Mets fan. Okay, we got the right pieces. We got a great player, but next year. It's just always next year. And so good luck, Chiefs fans, because you're going to be here next year for a long time. Sorry.

As long as Tom Brady's playing, you probably will. Well, as we discussed earlier, that's forever. Okay, the Rams got a little bit of a lift this weekend. Our producer, Zuri, was smiling when he came into work. So I'll ask you this. How many wins the rest of the season for the rejuvenated Rams? 5.5 over under. Well, they beat the Bengals.

They should beat the Steelers. Oh, man. not an easy stretch so they've played seven they got nine left so i want to know if they're going to be a winning team in the back half of the season so i would say that uh huh i'm gonna go you're running a spreadsheet right now do you want to do you want to put this into your algorithm to decide if they're good i'm gonna go under here i think there's still some deficiencies in their team. They took advantage of a really poor Falcons team. I'll go under.

I feel safer with the under. Really? Okay. So the Rams who got to the Super Bowl and look okay now and just added Jalen Ramsey, who was pretty good. I mean, he didn't play the whole game, but he was pretty good. You think that they're maybe not even a playoff team? I had them this year in the wild card.

So that would be three teams out of the NFC West? Is that what we're thinking? Probably. Wow. Interesting. Especially if the Panthers lose in San Francisco this weekend. Okay. All right.

So you're saying Rams, you're not quite a buyer yet. Fair enough. Not quite yet, no. I'm going to check back on that one in a couple weeks because I think they win the next two weeks All right, so you're saying Rams, you're not quite a buyer yet. Fair enough. Not quite yet, no. I want to check back on that one in a couple weeks, because I think they win the next two weeks and people are getting really excited about them. Then they have that tricky stretch.

Chicago, Baltimore, at Arizona, which I wouldn't just give them, Seattle, at Dallas, at San Francisco, and Arizona again. Well, who knows? Every Bears game going forward, though, is like an asterisk, because we don't really know how they're going to respond to all this quarterback not being very good stuff. Yeah, well, I mean, he's not very good, so we can settle that. Let's move to a quarterback who is pretty good, yet his team doesn't win a whole lot of anything. Matt Stafford.

So he's the fastest to 40,000 yards passing in any career in NFL history. Right. He got there quicker than anyone else has ever gotten there so i want to know over under career passing yards 80 000 yards that'd be double where he is now uh yes really yeah stafford's going to be the guy that comes hall of fame voting time that we're going to have to really take a look at the era he played in as far as how we determine if he's a hall of famer or not because Cause he's, he's not have every passing record unless he gets hurt and he might have no playoff wins.

So, um, it's gonna be pretty amazing to see if he can, if he can keep this up, but also what are we going to do for the hall of fame stuff? Well, okay. I mean,

what, I don't know a, that it matters. Um, but why not? Well, I mean, hall of fame. I mean, I don't know that it matters. Why not? Well, Hall of Fame, I mean, if you don't win a playoff, do we even have to talk about stats if you don't win a playoff game?

A lot of these people care about stats. But, I mean, you know how when you're searching for a flight, you go online and you, like, filter, and so you put in your, like, search settings. You're like, I only want one stop, and I want this amount of money, and, you know, blah, blah, blah. I feel like when we do the search filters for are you a Hall of Famer? You have to check the box like won a playoff game. Well, at least one.

Like give me Andrew Lux one, you know, Tony Romo one. Like maybe he's more. If you don't win a playoff game, you're not going to be a Hall of Famer. Well, we'll find out with Stafford. I'll be the first test of that. If he's the second leading passing yards guy ever. So Tom Brady plays for another decade, which looks likely, and has 150,000 passing yards.

Matt Stafford, second most of all time, no playoff wins. Hall of Famer? Stafford's second all time no playoff wins hall of famer um stafford's second all time you said yes yes that's what i said i just want to make sure we get this right i would say uh i would say probably not okay i mean it's like it's that's why it's that's why it's that arbitrary i mean i think it's that simple yeah yeah. Some of this stuff is arbitrary. All right, let's go to another one. I think you probably know this guy. So weeks until Greg Olson is a full-time commentator.

10.5. I want to know two things. Will he go to the playoffs with the Panthers this year, and will he be a broadcaster in the playoffs if he isn't in it? No, he will not call a playoff game this year, but I do think next season he'll be in the playoffs if he isn't in it no he will not call a playoff game this year um but i do think next season he'll be in the broadcast booth i think someone will hire him whether it's fox or cbs obviously the inside track now on fox he did a great job he did um he wasn't afraid to criticize but i think it's very important um i often feel that um announcers

are too nice because they want the access obviously and i get it but you know if you see something that's not good on the field. You should call it out. I mean, that's your job, right? To make, to let the fans know what's happening.

And you don't, you don't have to, to mock someone or you don't have to call someone something or someone stupid or demean them. But if they have a bad play design or a situational football is not very good, it's okay to call them out on that. And I think Greg did a good job.

That says, I think he is going to be done after this this year i think it'd be a lot of changes in carolina after the season he'll just go right into the booth whether it's um for cbs or whether it's for fox uh he'll have a job right away uh all right i saw some people with this take it was not the majority but there were people who thought what the hell is he doing spending his time but there were people who thought, what the hell is he doing spending his time broadcasting on a Sunday? You know, he should be getting healthy, reviewing the playbook, relaxing, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I'm not sure where I stand on that.

What do you think of that? I wouldn't look to Churks and Caicos on my bye weeks. Like, what's the difference? It's just called a football game. I mean, it's work. It's a lot of time spent traveling. I think it's less than the other guys do i don't think he's allowed in production meetings um because you know there are teams that he might play or or whatnot um i think he's more just kind of like shows up saturday does his thing leaves sunday okay all right so you're gonna you're

gonna say more good than bad oh yes 100 would you have wanted an opportunity like this when you were a current player? Of course, but I would have been very bad at it. All right. I mean, even now, I don't know. I haven't called a game in like three years. I feel like I'll be better at it, but there's a different type of skill set to call games. In what sense? Well, you have to be very precise um you can't ramble

at all obviously it's a different medium than like radio which is what i do a lot of um and i think it's very important to know quarterback play and coverages and i've gotten better at that now in the last three years and it's very important to know that type of stuff it's just a different atmosphere um and knowing the ebb and flow of when you're supposed to talk and not supposed to talk and whatnot i think it'd be much better at it now but it's different than any other medium yeah all right it's unscripted too i mean tv and radio you know you have a script you have an idea of what you're going to talk about beforehand um and this you have to just prepare and you know hope you're ready to go when when a play happens well i hope you're doing it one day

uh and i hope that you're calling Bills games, and I hope when you leave to the parking lot, somebody comes and suplexes you for saying their quarterback stinks. All right, let's go to another name that triggers you. We can't do a show without mentioning this guy. So, Jeff, I want an over-under 9.5 weeks until you show Lamar Jackson proper respect. So, Gabe,

if you had to guess, do you know, did you, well, I mean, you might know the final score of the game, but did you know how many points the Ravens offense scored this weekend? No,

I don't know or care. Okay. So you were on social media Sunday and you saw the large reaction to the way the Ravens offense played, right? Specifically how he ran the ball. Yeah. Okay.

So you would admit, you would think that like there was an historic day on offense right it felt that way yeah they scored 16 points on offense well you know sometimes all it takes is 16 my friend um and this is the thing is that we look what he's doing and I think he should be an MVP talk uh because he's the MVP of that team he obviously is a big part of what that team does well. But to me, it's not sustainable. And we have yet to see the style of offense work in the playoffs. I don't think it's going to work in the playoffs. Even if you say, hey, well, Cam Noon was a running quarterback. Not really. He was a pocket passer. In the playoffs, if you look at the playoffs, you look at like three guys recently.

Cam Noon, Colin Kaepernick, and Russell Wilson, all right? Guys that people consider to be runners, which I think all three of those guys are pocket passers first. Russell Wilson and Cam Noon, their playoff rushing totals always come down in the playoffs. Kaepernick obviously had that Green Bay game where he rushed like 200 yards. That's not normal. Like normally in the playoffs, things, slow down a little bit. And you're not running the football as much. Teams hone in on you.

There's just more focus in the playoffs. And to me, this offense has not been good so far against the better teams they've played. And they now have coming up the Patriots the bills texans cedars again the jets they have a lot of good defenses coming up we'll know more about them um but i like i said i think he can be an mvp candidate but also the offense in my opinion is not sustainable okay i mean you've been pretty clear about that and you've never been disparaging but you have said you can't you don't see how this can last i don't know why it automatically goes to like like i hate someone you're not a hater you've been very you've been very fair seems like a great kid i don't know i

mean it seems like a great kid i don't mean i don't really hate i hate the washington huskies but luckily organ beat him this weekend so it was great for me yeah that was nice uh i will just say pete carroll who knows speed and knows great players said of lamar quote lamar was much faster than we saw on film what we saw what we saw was extraordinary what i saw was extraordinary so but like wow looking like okay think about it surprised pete carroll how fast he was but pete carroll also surprised that you can go for a fourth down, okay? Okay. So, but here's the thing, Gabe,

is that when we look at the, like, have you ever said after a playoff game, because, look, what matters in this game is winning playoff games, right?

I mean, regular season wins are great and all. I'll take them, but your goal is to win the Super Bowl, right? Not to put up great numbers in the regular season.

Have you ever left a playoff game in the last five years thinking, you know what? We lost a game because that quarterback is fast. No! put up great numbers in the regular season. Have you ever left a playoff game in the last five years thinking, you know what? We lost the game because that quarterback is fast. No.

Never. We lost that game because that quarterback sat in the pocket and made plays or he broke the pocket and threw the ball downfield. Or yes, it's okay to be mobile. It's okay to be Aaron Rodgers, Pat Mahomes, and step up and move out of the pocket and run downfield every now and then but lamar jackson has 87 rushing attempts so far 87 rushing attempts i looked this up because someone tweeted me um a former player trey essek who used to play the steelers he must roll tackle um for them good player he tweeted me about hey you know uh lamar jackson's no different than he lists off like eight quarterbacks that were kind of quote-unquote rushing quarterbacks.

He even included John Elway and Rodgers and Josh Allen. I'll look this up. Lamar Jackson right now through seven games has almost as many rushing attempts as any of those guys have had in a single season. A single season. He threw seven games so far. Okay. That's wild, dude. This pace is not sustainable.

I mean, I didn't see very many people who could catch him and tackle him, so I'm not worried about it yet. And I will say this to you and to the listeners. There's a book out there called What If We're Wrong by Chuck Klosterman. Okay. Is there any nodding along? It basically is about how all throughout human history, there have been these automatics in life, just these things we believe. And then 100, 200, 1,000 years later, we look back and we're like, well, that was obviously wrong.

This is in every walk of life, obviously with science especially. What if we're just wrong about the idea that this is going to be doomed to fail? What if he just is this good and becomes the way that the NFL changes? Then at that point, and you know I've done this before, I'll admit I'm wrong. Okay. But I'm not going to do that because why would I admit I'm wrong now? There's no evidence to show that I'm wrong yet. You don't have to yet.

I think he might be the guy that changes it. When this podcast is in its fifth season and Lamar Jackson has won a couple of playoff games and we can revisit this about five years from now and I'm not going to admit I'm wrong if I'm wrong. All right. Yeah. I just want him to take down those Patriots. Five years from now when Tom Brady has stacked up four more rings,

I want Lamar to run past the Patriots defense. That's what I want. I just want one of those rings. If I had one of those rings, it would be nice for my media career. Yeah, well. Okay, so you've bummed people out all up and down the East Coast, from Buffalo to New York and onward. I'm going to now take us all the way down the South. SEC teams in the college football playoff over under 1.5 are we getting one or two out of the sec i think we're getting one this year only because um clemson's in right their schedule is is poo and they're not going to lose yep oklahoma's in okay most likely unless they lose to texas in the big

12 championship game and ohio state's not losing it doesn't seem like it okay so that puts three shore bets in. You think all those teams are in over a one-loss SEC team? Yes. Okay. So who are we picking? No, no, no. We might end up with Bama, LSU, Florida. They might all beat themselves up and lose games. And Florida's already lost anyway.

So Bama, LSU might lose to each other, to another team. And we might get a one-loss SEC team. But a one-loss SEC team is going in over Oregon. Oh, wow. You just picked your team out of nowhere for that. Oregon could be the best one-loss team if they went out. But they're not going to get in.

Alright, well you gave some hope to some people out in the Midwest and in Oklahoma, etc. Thank you. Last thing we do is social, so we try to look for some people who've said some nice things or interesting things or funny things to you, and then spotlight them and get your take on them.

This one comes from SDaddy. That's what we're going to call him. All of the, quote, running QBs Cap Cam Wilson have been to the Super Bowl. Who's the last pocket quarterback under 30 who's been other than Goff? I think this person's challenging

your notions here, Jeff. Who's the young guy who's just a stand in the pocket and throw guy? But Russell Wilson is a fantastic pocket passer. He's not a running quarterback. There's a big difference. I cannot stress this enough. There's a big difference between the idea

of a running quarterback and a mobile quarterback. They're not even close. And I don't know why we continue to do this weird thing where we assume that they are the same when they're not. Those years that Russell Wilson won the Super Bowl, he did 118 rushes one year and 103 rushes. Since then, the numbers have gone way down. As older he gets, obviously, you stop running so much. But he's a fantastic pocket passer. I cannot stress this enough.

He is a passer first – even Cam Newton, in the year that he won the Super Bowl, he did not rush very often in the playoffs. Here we go. In 2013, the other Seahawks won the Super Bowl. No, excuse me. Yes, they won the Super Bowl that year. In the playoffs, Russell Wilson only had 11 rushing attempts in three games. Like, you're not running the ball that very much in the playoffs.

I keep stressing this to people, and they don't listen to me so uh yeah i guess jared golf was the last one okay like so i think what maybe this person is suggesting and i feel similarly is that we should start to think about the idea that perhaps mobility or running whichever you want to call it, should become the trend, and that the guys like Tom Brady at the top of the list, but then those Staffords and Rivers and Ryans and all these other guys who haven't won crap, sorry guys, that the big, strong, durable thrower, essentially, isn't the future. That's, I think, what this person's getting at.

For Pamela Holmes, Deshaun Watsonatson they're not futures of the of the league i think what we're what we're agreeing on is that mobility is the answer so if the venn diagram can also can also bring up that kaepernick wilson and cam both had all top three defenses those years i mean like defense is part of this equation as well okay all right well the ravens do not have a top three defense then that feels like progress that feels like if your first instinct is throw uh but you can run and make exciting things happen with your legs that that is what the next wave of great quarterbacks in the league will look like then that's great that's fun that's fine with me okay great i just you know lamar jackson sprinting past an entire football

team is also awesome. Oh, Jesus. Okay. All right. McCabe, you're making me end the podcast on a sad note. Now I'm all depressed. I started on a sad note. Fair for you to end. Thank you for tuning in to today's episode.

The free episode, iTunes, Google Podcast, Athletic Podcast Network as well. Please leave a rating review. You can tweet me at Jeff Schwartz. Let me know how angry you are. I'm sure that no one will tweet me as angrily as Bills and Ravens fans will after this podcast. Until next time, until Thursday actually, have a great couple of days. Talk to you guys then.