Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Sean Payton’s on the Move, AB Suing the Bucs, and the Best Bets for the Conference Championships

Episode Date: January 27, 2022

Geoff and Matt are back with their weekly betting show to make their picks on the lines for the AFC and NFC conference championship games, plus look for value in the props available early in the week. But before that, they’re talking about Sean Payton’s “retirement,” his impending move to the Cowboys, and his legacy with the Saints. Also, Antonio Brown claims to have a case against the Bucs for… looking after his well being? Geoff isn’t buying it.Like and subscribe if you enjoyed the episode, and tweet @geoffschwartz and @mmford10 if you’re still riding with their picks after last weekend--  or if they owe you some dough!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday january 27th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz is smarter than you powered by the varsity podcast network it is our wagering preview for the championship round of the national football league there are only three games left no we are not counting the pro bowl as an nfl game that we will wager on we will review how we went last week guess what did not go very well and we'll talk talk about a couple NFL topics because as we get less games to talk about, we will supplement those with Sean Payton news, who's leaving the Saints, and Antonio Brown news. I wish he would go away, but we have to discuss it anyways.

A little bit of cleanup from this weekend. Aaron Rodgers, a little Buffalo Bills. We have some CYA happening. Matt, I had a bad weekend in gambling. One for three just in the games, but then my props, like I hit a couple of them, but mostly bad. How was your weekend watching the NFL? Similar, Jeff. I left our show feeling like, all right, I'm probably going to change my mind on something because we both liked all the favorites the week after all the favorites covered i even said hey this is probably not gonna happen but every single game i just kept staring at and i was like well there's no way the titans lose okay that obviously that one felt felt

in doubt the entire game the packers game i still feel like that if you played that game 100 times, the Packers win in cover 85 of those times. Like, what a fluky game. Like, cool, the special teams thing, whatever. They just felt really flat the whole time. Yes. Then the Bucs game, after Saturday, I was like, all right, there's no way that there's going to be another upset, first of all. And second of all, Tom Brady, like, even if i lose it's tom brady like i'm going down with tom brady and then immediately i assumed i lost that bet and then got my hope

back yeah i'm getting that crush yeah and then at the end i'm like all right so i'm going oh for four and then mahomes you know pulled off a miracle and made us look a little bit smarter but we're still over 500 for the playoffs each each of us, right? I think so. Now, again, I don't wager. I didn't wager every game. And the funny thing is, I got good value. I took Tennessee minus two and a half. Great job.

Kansas City obviously covered. And I teased Green Bay. I wasn't betting that at minus six. And I took Tampa Bay minus three. So I was one and two in those. And my teaser didn't hit either. So again, I didn't even hit a lot of, unfortunately, I didn't even hit, like I said, my props. I hit the Gronk prop. I hit Kelsey, I believe, at the very end.

I mean, there were some I did hit, but it was tough. It wasn't great. But nonetheless, we have another weekend to wager. Before we get to that though, Matt, before we get to our wagering, and again, this is Wednesday when we record. There are not a lot of props. I haven't even started exploring the props yet. It's just it's tough.

We will try to get you props. We'll give you our idea on the size and totals. Some things I am leaning towards in the prop market. But again, until the numbers are totally set, Matt, it's hard to do. But stay tuned for all that. But first, let's do a little NFL news here. Talk about Sean Payton. Yeah, Sean Payton announced he's stepping down from the Saints.

There's been some questions about whether he's retiring or what's happening or how soon he'll be on the next flight to Dallas. But crazy news for the Saints who have really transformed over the last couple of years. I guess in addition to handicapping what this means for the Kevin James biopic, which is on front of mind for me and for everyone. What do you make of this news? Is it true that we should just pencil Sean Payton in for Dallas? I'm just curious, like your big takeaways. Well, big takeaways is Sean Payton's jumping off a second ship and he knows it. If you look at where the Saints are right now, Matt Wright, no franchise quarterback.

Winston, as much as we make fun of Taysom Hill, and Sean Payne knows, not a franchise quarterback. Ian Book, who was the other guy? Trevor Simeon, they don't have that guy. They are in cap hell. Now, I get it, Saints fans. I get it. You'll figure it out.

You will figure it out. But eventually that bill does come due. You can't just keep mortgaging contracts to the future and never pay that bill. So I think Sean Payton surveyed the landscape of where he's at without Drew Brees and said, look, I'm just not going to coach rebuilds every year or 500 teams every year. I just don't want to do this. I also think there's a thought. He's a very smart coach.

He is an offensive guru. He looks around the NFL at Pat Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and just says, yeah, I'm not doing this. Like, I don't have the guy to compete. I mean, the soul crushing thing about this past weekend, Matt, is that if you don't have one of those five to seven quarterbacks, you have no chance to win. Sorry.

Sorry, you're not winning the NFL. You're a Washington football fan. Sorry, Fitzpatrick, whoever you're going to have the next season. Anyone you draft, even, in year one or two, it's not going to happen. It's a bad feeling. I'm a Chiefs fan, so I feel great about it, obviously. And look, you can get Jimmy Garoppolo every now and then, right? But the team though, the Niners team is so solid around him.

And I think Sean Payne said, look, I've coached for a long time. I've won a lot. Now, there's a question, Matt, to be had is, have they underachieved? And the answer is absolutely yes. With Drew Brees, they have absolutely underachieved. But they brought a Super Bowl to a franchise that was a perennial loser, a franchise that at that moment, too, kind of needed that Super Bowl, right?

And he's done wonders for the community, wonders for the franchise. He deserves all the credit he gets but i still think they underachieved a little bit while he was there yeah it's funny there's a lot to react to there and we're gonna have a whole off season to talk about quarterbacks and and how much they mean to a team and and how you build a team around that i kind of feel like sean payton and aaron rogers they're sort of having this similar discourse around them where it's like yeah like you were set for, you know, a decade plus with each of these guys at their respective teams. Every year, Sean Payton's teams were

relevant. Same with Aaron Rodgers. But it's possible they're both going to we're going to look back and be like, were those guys all that? Like Sean Payton kind of reminds me of like a Dan Reeves almost, you know, it's like he's had amazing success, especially in a place that's really hard to succeed historically. But he won one Super Bowl and it was an important Super Bowl. But I don't know. It's like if you're a Saints fan, I imagine you're sort of like really grateful. But it's also like, is that is that enough?

Like when you look at Andy Reid, when you look at a, I don't know, Bill Belichick, obviously, like is one Super Bowl and being relevant for a while enough for us to say like this was a Hall of Fame coach, a transcendent coach, one that you should bend over backwards for? It's hard to say. And it's sort of the same thing with Aaron Rodgers, right? Well, yeah. I mean, Aaron Rodgers, obviously the talent there, but let's look at the Saints' playoff history

because it is kind of, it's rather interesting. So they won, obviously, the Super Bowl in 2009. They beat the Colts. And obviously they did not get obviously, the Super Bowl in 2009. They beat the Colts. And obviously, they did not get back to the Super Bowl since then. And they've only played a one-conference championship game since then. They played in a conference championship game in 2006. So he's been to three conference championship games as the head coach, won one Super Bowl, and played in one Super Bowl.

For as good as Drew Brees had been for so many years, not great, right? Right, Matt? Like, it's not the best. They've also also lost, in 2017, 18, 19, and 20, lost four straight home playoff games to end the season, end those seasons.

It's not great. Again, Sean Payne, offensive guru, again, all the things i mentioned are great accomplishments but there is a little bit i think he left on the bone in new orleans we had an opportunity to win more and just just cook it over the hump for whatever reason that that was um is he a hall of fame coach i i have no idea i don't know who knows that's for not for me to decide but obviously again all the things off the field, what he did for that community, what he did for that franchise are all commendable.

He deserves all that credit for that. 100%. But he's moving on. And the question about Dallas, right? So does Dallas come calling after the season? Maybe. I think the Saints still own his contracts. They don't have to trade for him.

I want to frame this in a particular way. 2023 Super Bowl odds. You can bet the cowboys now plus 1200 i'm sure that has i'm sure that has become a uh worse odds ever since this news broke is it worth sprinkling on dallas as a possible super bowl team next year as a result of this news no because i don't because I don't think he'll be with the Cowboys this year. I think he could be next year. There is a tweet that with I mean, Sean Payne and Mike McCarthy

have very close to identical stats in 15 seasons. The difference obviously is that McCarthy had Rodgers, I believe, the whole time and Dak Prescott and Sean Payne did not have Drew Brees, I believe, for that entire time. But that's really besides the point. I don't think anyone thinks Mike McCarthy is as good of a coach as Sean Payne.

I think if Sean Payne had this Dallas team, they wouldn't have been bounced in the wildcard round, right? You agree with that? 100%. I think, yes. And I got a little distracted. So I'm in a hotel room. I'm in the process of moving.

I'm in midtown New York I'm in the process of moving. I'm in Midtown New York in an undisclosed location, and a light in this room just turned on without – no one else is in here. No one is on this floor, I think. This light just turned on. I don't know what just happened. It's alarming. There's no construction noise, though.

Well, it's funny, Jeff. As soon as I hit the link for the unnamed video client that we use to talk to each other, somebody started drilling upstairs. And I was like, I can't believe my luck. But this light turned on with me doing nothing. I really want to discuss this. Is there a sponsorship you have for a video platform for other podcasts? Is that why you're not allowed to mention the one we use here?

I don't name any companies. Just a flat no until I don't even know a shoe company, an apparel, I don't know. Any food company, nothing. Unless they sponsor us, I am unaware of their existence. I will mention New Balance. You can send me some shoes, New Balance. I'd appreciate it. I am familiar with this brand and I also wear New Balance.

I've got a wide foot, Jeff. I've got a wide foot. Are you a 2E guy or what do you got? I am a 2E. I am an E. Wow, look at you. That's right. I'm a 2 or a 4 depending do you i am a 2e i have an e that's right i'm a two or four depending on what the shoe is damn yeah well you must be cinderella jeff i i must be all right let's get to um god geez do we have to all right man like by the time people hear this the antonio brown

story will have changed 25 more times but i just finished watching a clip of our mutual friend nate burleson interviewing him uh he basically nate was like so you tweet you tweet this thing like good luck to tom brady and then after the game you posted photoshop of you saying bucks eliminated uh where what's your stance right now and antonio brown in a in a series of confusing answers basically reiterated the thing he said on real sports which is like hey the bucks caught me in this weird way they owe me they screwed me they try to get me into mental health treatment like i don't know what the hell is going on here well i mean do you think he has a point in any of this or do you think this is all just makes your point you know by the way when you have a good case matt the way you argue is on real sports and on and nate burleson's podcast and whatever podcast brown like that's in twitter right like twitter if i had a case against you the

first thing i would do is go to social media and make my case that's how you know you have a very a very good case um a couple things the real sports interview he mentioned that the buck shot him up okay with tortle it's not how it works and anthony and antonio brown knows it's not how it works right you know it doesn't work you know what you're putting your body if they say hey do you want this you know what it is you can say no not required to take tortle not at all required is it a shot yeah it's a shot it's anti-inflammatory it's fantastic in your ass um so there's no way they're like oh gotcha like that's not a thing yeah no no they can offer to me man you need this to play you don't you can say no

but you know what he may seem like he was just like minding his own business and the doctor was like boom right in your ass no right like that's not how it works buddy you know what you're doing you play long enough don't play stupid you know you're taking tort all and again tort all when not abused is fine people there's a stigma about it um i get it right it makes you feel not as injured as you are which is true not true i've taken it with my bad ankle it didn't do anything i don't know just didn't really help i've taken other times it's worked but the idea that he didn't know what he was taking is absolutely bs he knew what he was doing so this victim thing about oh they shot me up okay buddy you knew what you were taking it wasn't it wasn't like they just were like hey we're giving you

vitamins let me inject you with tortle not doing that as far as all this other stuff man about them paying him to go to mental rehab it kind of sounds like the team was looking out for him i don't know like here buddy here's two200,000 to go get your mind right. Now, obviously, you can disagree whether or not your mind needed to get right. And I'm fine with that. If you want to make that discussion and you want to argue that, sure. But again, arguing on social media gets you nothing. You're not going to sue them.

You're not going to win. They paid you for the season. What more money do you want from them? You know, they said they're gonna make you pay for surgery. Yeah. That's the way it works. Yeah.

They're gonna have to pay for your surgery. Okay. That's not new. Like you're so it's really, it's, it's just, this is such a silly, like,

look at me. I want attention. And obviously they're going to keep giving attention to uh to antonio brown oh very quickly i was watching real sports i wanted to watch that and there was a piece on on sports gambling all right and they found a schmo who gambles he gambled a thousand dollars on a russian table tennis match during the pandemic. This is the main character of this 15-minute segment to basically say, hey, sports gambling, bad. Boo, don't do it.

It's ruining lives. You found the biggest schmo there was who gambles. Like, come on, man. At least give a fair piece about what sports wagering is. He's like, yeah. Oh, so you saw real sports's interview with our producer hank is that what you're saying he's like he's like oh fanduel ran an ad i just had to do it no you didn't sorry it might not even be fanduel i'm just i don't accuse you fanduel

give me any fanduel whoever it was it's like you know x gambling company had an ad for table tennis i bet a thousand dollars on that's you. That's not on them. You're the one who did it. On Russian table tennis, they found this schmo to go on there and say sports gambling is bad. Look how bad it is. Gamble responsibly.

That's a you problem. Okay, nonetheless, Antonio Brown is a you problem. You're the problem, Antonio Brown. Yeah. I'm just tired of it, man. I saw some more stuff come out like oh he's gonna sue that he's not he's not doing any of that again if you have a case

to sue a team you don't have to go in the public and make it happen I've seen we've had players that have sued teams for MRSA I know one particularly who did it there was not a single word about in social media it just happened he got his money and moved it, there was not a single word about it in social media. It just happened. He got his money and moved it along. There have been more public ones, right? Lawrence Hines, I believe it was, and Carl Nix sued Tampa Bay back in 14, 15. Yeah, that eventually becomes news,

but they don't make their case on social media beforehand. And I don't think he's actually winning anyone's hearts or minds on social media either. No, if anything, it's making it worse it worse all right let's move on from Antonio Brown because it's it's just pointless I don't even want to talk about him going to the Ravens or any of that stuff why don't we talk when why don't we put a bow on the Aaron Rodgers thing um it's been interesting the last couple weeks or a couple sorry a couple days um hearing his latest comments he said today on the as we're recording this on a Wednesday,

on the McAfee show that he felt like people were rooting against the Packers more this year because of his vaccination status. He said, I hold accountability for that. I thought that was kind of interesting, even if I don't totally believe it. I guess reading the tea leaves for a couple of days, if you had to make a bet where Aaron Rodgers plays next year, the Packers are currently favored. The Broncos are the next favorite

in the betting odds that I most recently saw. Where would you place your money on where Rodgers plays? I think he's going to be on Pat McAfee's team, on the radio, just radio broadcasting. God, this guy, man. I was talking to a friend yesterday who played with him, I don't know, seven, eight years ago, and he said that he was never like this.

He said this has happened recently. He said this is just, I don't know if it's, I don't know, seven, eight years ago. And he said that he was never like this. He said this has happened recently. He said like, this is just, I don't know if it's, I don't know what it is, man. But like, it's just the stuff he says. Like, dude, you're not a victim. No one's canceling you. Yeah, people don't agree with your vaccine stance. All right, get over it.

I was rooting for you because I had Packers on the teaser. I don't think that, I don't agree with your vaccine stance, but guess what? I'm not rooting against you for that. The jokes were made because you brought it on yourself. You're the one who made all these comments and the jokes were made because you lost in the division round to a team that scored six whole offensive points. Yeah, they're going to be made. You're not the victim, man.

No one's going to feel sorry for you. You know, again, so for next season, look, you know that I was very strongly of the opinion that he was going nowhere. Right? I said Packers, that's where he was going to be, and he was. This year, Matt, I have no idea, buddy. Through the Packers, look, what's the saying? I don't get the saying right.

It's like, right, your talent outweighs's like right you're you're uh your your talent outweighs your problems so your problems outweigh your talent yep and like he's still talented Antonio Brown yeah he's still talented but but you haven't made a Super Bowl like I'm not saying Jordan Love can do that but the Packers draft him to replace you if you're just this much trouble why are they keeping you around yeah well I Well, I think, too, when you look at – I think all of the cases that he's made this season have taken a hit. Like, I think this time last year on the show, I think either of us would have said, like, yeah, the Packers supporting Cass, like, isn't great. Like, they should have given him some more options. Like, they – you know, I think we both kind of took his side at the beginning of this.

But then you watch, like, let's just take the chiefs bills game you know there's the number one receivers i think you would probably argue are both not as good as davante adams so i think it's the best receiver i mean terry kills pretty yeah he's special obviously and then there's kelsey but you know it's beyond beyond that like josh allen's making gabe davis's making Gabe Davis look like Jerry Rice. At some point, you have to elevate the people around you. I get Alan Lazard isn't the best player ever, but Aaron Jones had an amazing game. Aaron Jones, we know A.J. Dillon went out,

but they have a great offense. They have a great defense. Sure, they screwed up on special teams. That's a problem. But it's not like Aaron Rodgers is stuck on the Lions. He's on this but it's not like aaron rogers is stuck on you know the the lions like he's on this really good team with an excellent coach i think his i think he really takes a hit in his credibility because he can't make this team any better he seems to like be this fake victim of like well you know if i just had it's like what do you want do you want barry

sanders and jerry rice and then you're it'll be good good enough for you? I don't understand. I don't think another team is dying to trade everything for him at this point. I think he brings a lot of headaches. I don't know that the situation's going to get any better. I think the reconciliation tone that he's taken with the Packers shows that he realizes the situation is probably a good one for him. that he realizes the situation is probably a good one for him yeah i i the the question becomes obviously now where does he go right matt it's like where the packers this we agree right the packers are getting rid of him right i i what's the price like where does where does he go that's

an actual fit everyone says denver but it's like is courtland sutton and you know jerry judy a better fit than davante adams and aaron jones like i i don't think so like is that a much better situation their defense isn't even as good i don't know people are saying indianapolis maybe or tampa bay the tampa is interesting i mean i think that one maybe we can just talk tom brady here quickly like i'm curious he's had a couple of really interesting statements too i don't think he is going to retire um i think that he's basically setting the table for one last run but i don't know i'm curious if you have a different read on that this is pretty interesting because there's a lot of other things surrounding Tom Brady with the roster there

that are very interesting, right? Because Byron Lefkowitz supposedly is leaving to be the Jacksonville head coach, which means... Which is awesome. Yeah, it's great. Which means Bruce Arians

is going to be in charge of the offense again, not Lefkowitz. Maybe that helps Tom decide. Maybe it doesn't. Or they'll just hire somebody else. Yeah. They have, you know,

offense a lot. Their center, Ryan Jensen, who he gets along with very well and is a big part of that offense. He is a free agent. You know, there's other things, like, I just don't know if Gronk, I mean, Gronk has got to be done, right? Unless he's one of those guys that just comes back, like, week 10

and just plays the back half of the season. Like, he seems like his body cannot handle training camp and a full slate of games next season. All those things matter, right? And I just don't know if tom i think he wants to play but is he's gonna have to figure out how that team is built next year before he decides to come back well then it's the same thing with rogers it's like would rogers be some so much of a better fit there the bucks are in a really interesting spot but i think that people are underestimating

the chance that tom brady could just say like yeah i'll come back and play for you know two million bucks and go get me whatever some you know top would go get alan robinson because chris godwin can't come back right away or go get you know so and so to replace i don't know somebody on the offensive line so i think i i think there's a very good chance he returns the bucks next year and that they win the super bowl again i think he's everyone's saying like this is a good way to go out i don't think so this guy is not going to go out on a on a loss to matthew stafford at home this guy is going to go out with another super bowl or something unfortunately that that would be a lot worse i think yeah i i i'm with you i don't think he's just going to um

but he's just going to be done after this year yeah it's masterful pr in contrast with aaron rogers it's him saying it's him making us miss him already. You know what I mean? Aaron Rodgers is everywhere. He's all the time. He's making noise. And Tom Brady's like, what if I retire? And everyone's like, don't retire.

Wait a second. You're too awesome. You're playing too well. And that's really interesting. He doesn't look old yet, right? He's still playing at a high level. He looked incredible in that Rams game. They had nobody who could catch the ball,

and there he is just slinging it. I mean, that deep pass to Evans over Ramsey may have been a little bit lucky, but, like, come on, this guy is unbelievable. He would have been the second-best quarterback left. All right, why don't we move on to our picks here and talk about the two games? Let's do that.

Why don't we move on to our picks here and talk about the two games? Let's do that. All right, Jeff, let's start with the AFC. This game is at 3 p.m. Eastern on Sunday. The line we're looking at as of Wednesday afternoon is the Chiefs by seven. This opened at six and a half. It got bet up to seven and a half, and now it's kind of landed at seven, which all of that I find is pretty interesting. Where are you this well i'm gonna look at the numbers what would i show them the public's all over kansas city right the public is mostly on kansas

city but the early bets were all um were all sharp well at first it got bet up to seven and then the in seven and a half then the sharpps slammed it and brought it back to seven they they love the bangles at seven and a half so this one is is pretty simple for me think about all the things in the first game that had to go wrong for the chiefs to lose that game right like like they had to have all these things go horribly wrong to lose the game, right? They're up 28-14, right? And then just they scored, what, three second-half points. They blew, they busted a coverage. They played way too much man coverage on Jamar Chase. They blitzed too much, the third and 27, zero pressure. You know, the end-of-game situations,

the false starts that weren't called in Cincinnati, all the penalties that were called in Kansas City, like everything that happened in that game. And the Bengals won on a last second field goal. All right? The Chiefs, you know, they did survive against Buffalo. And I get where people might say, well, Matt, I just think they're just a lot better than the Bengals.

And if you watch the postgame in the locker room, they played some of it. Now, obviously, it was at the end of the little celebration. But Andy Reid was like, gosh darn it, what a win, guys. And then fingers snapped. All right, guys, next weekend, here's the deal. 2 p.m., we're playing here. We're chasing the Super Bowl.

All right, ready, break. This is what they do, man. This is what they do. They play these big games. The better offensive line, Kansas City. Better defensive line, Kansas City, right? Defensively, the Chiefs need Honey Badger back. But here's the thing.

In these rematches, right, the Chiefs, again, I mentioned all things that went wrong in that first game. Just don't blitz. Just sit back and zone. That's what Tennessee did. They sat back and covered too and said, hey, we're not going to let you beat us deep. And the Bengals couldn't do it.

And in the red zone, we're seeing now in the playoffs, in the red zone, the Bengals are really struggling to put points on the board because your offensive line's got to be really good in the red zone. And like, that's a problem. They're not. They're getting Burrow killed out there.

I think he had that. Seven points, man, is a lot. It's a teaser, like, to heaven play. I mean, obviously, you have to tease this one. Every single person that wagers on games is probably going to put San Francisco and Kansas City in a teaser. I know people that already have put a lot of money in that teaser. But I think this could get ugly.

I really do. The Bengals, they scored 19 points against Tennessee. It wasn't like there was a great game by them. Oh, no, man. I think that the Chiefs take this one down, and there's not much of an issue with it. Yeah. I looked for a million reasons.

I knew you would take the Chiefs. But I looked for a million reasons to take the Bengals. take the Chiefs. But I look for a million reasons to take the Bengals. Mainly, number one, I think the Bengals' method of success is not super sustainable. I mean, Burrow is, Burrow I think is my new favorite player in the whole NFL. I love him. But he can't sit back there and take 10 sacks a game and survive. And granted, theessee defense i think is a lot better than the chiefs defense especially if honey badgers limited at all but i i do think that um at some point that offensive line play in cincinnati is going to catch up to them especially if they need to be throwing from down 10 or 14 points the whole time you mentioned that game uh that the chiefs game

that um i i think i may have predicted that the bangles would cover that game i didn't think they'd win um but that you're right that game was sort of a perfect storm and i just think that it's so easy to correct the mistake like you were saying like it's so much easier to plan for the bangles the second time around um as a result like third and 27 don't run zero pressure and give up a 28 yard pass at Jamar Chase. It's that simple. It's the thing about it is like the Chiefs made so many errors in that game. They were so self-inflicted. I'm gonna pull one more stat for you right here.

Oh, Doug deleted the tweet. It was a stat about how Jamar Burrow was like, you know, threw for like 300 yards against the against six man pressures against Kansas City. Like it's ridiculous. Yeah, it's ridiculous. Yeah. It's, I mean, there's, that game was insane. There are a couple things that really made me think here. The first is conference championship games,

a team that's favored by more than a field goal, which is both favorites this weekend, are 15-8 against the spread since 04. Wow. They're also 6-2 against the spread for favorites who have lost the previous matchup this season, which also applies to both of these teams, both of these games. So that bodes well for Kansas City.

But look, the Chiefs have had a really tough time covering these big lines. Yes. I do think if you're picking this game it's really against the spread like it's really hard i would advise wagering against it for the reason jeff said like it's this is a great teaser candidate you can combine it with other other teams uh from the nfc game because there is the chance that the chiefs win this game pretty convincingly but because of the way they play defense somehow it's like a five-point game at the end

and Burrow has a chance. I'm really tired of betting against Joe Burrow. He's awesome. His teams always compete. No matter the constraints against him, he somehow finds a way to get Chase going and score points. I don't really want to bet this minus seven. At minus six and a half, if it comes back down, I think I would maybe take Kansas City. But I really do think that the Chiefs win, but maybe the Bengals cover.

That would be my guess for right now. Yeah, I mean, people, I saw the, you know, people were speculating, well, the Chiefs have a letdown. They lost the Bengals. Like if they had beaten the Bengles by a lot sure but this week they get to watch that film and watch their asses get beat by the bangles yep like there's going to be none of this like of this of this sentiment of of of sadness um worth noting here so um where's

that cincinnati bangles right now uh now, DVOA including playoff games, 19th on defense, 17th on offense. Their weighted DVOA is 12th. Kansas City right now, their weighted DVOA is second. Good. Offense, two. Defense, 26. So obviously, and special teams, there are two.

The regular special teams this season. We saw last weekend. Cincinnati is also a very good and special teams there too they're really not special teams uh this season we saw last weekend Cincinnati's also very good special teams but Bengals fans are like all in this like our defense is so much better to give it credit for I'm like where where yeah the pass rush is good yeah if Trey Hendrickson's healthy yeah he left yeah they've been good I mean Hubbard's been good I mean their front I mean, the tackle whose name I always forget, the run-stuffer guy. DJ Reader. Yeah, he's been good. But the – no, what's the guy's name?

This is embarrassing. The defensive tackle who was out last week. He's – Obajogi? Obajogi, yeah. Yeah, he's out for the year though. Oh, he is missing this guy. He broke his foot or something, yeah. Yeah.

Well, anyways i i really think the bengals defense has been great this team just like competes their asses off but even the raiders game which is why we like tennessee last week one of the reasons like the bengals barely won that one like they have they have a huge coaching disadvantage in this game that i think people are kind of sleeping on because they just assume zach taylor must have been doing something right but this is a tough spot for them. A couple other things to note here. So Honey Badger off and on the field this year.

So when he's on the field, the opposing defense is completing 64% of passes. When he's off the field, it's 75% of passes, which is a pretty big difference, right, when you have a guy on and off the field. So I'm hoping that they're able to, you know just to to make sure he's healthy he can play obviously don't rush him back his head injury but i hope i hope he can play um i just don't i how do the bangles stop the chiefs offense right now the buffalo was the number one defense the nfl yeah yeah i mean part of the honestly it's a little bit of regression like buff i mean kansas city the way that the way that since he wins this is they get on top early they

get a turnover and then you know they have a good game running the ball with mixon that's the that's the way that they win um so but the bangles aren't a great uh coming out of there they've had some trouble early in games so if they are in a hole, they're really going to be in a tough spot. Minimum 10 quarterback starts in the playoffs. Mahomes teams are averaging 33 points a game. 25 touchdowns, 5

interceptions in 10 career playoff games. Unbelievable. Alright, so I think we've been this one to death now. Let's get to uh the night game yeah amazing game uh the rams potentially on the verge of hosting both uh the nfc championship and the super bowl uh the line on this game is three or three and a half let me check the latest i believe it's three and a half right it's true i think it hasn't even gone down to three yet um let me double check i see three and a half right now

pretty much everywhere yeah let's call it that yeah three and a half um i will take the niners at three and a half um here's here's why so obviously matt stafford has played great and he actually deserves credit for how well he has played in the two playoff games. I still don't trust him. I still don't. But that's really not why. The Niners offensively, and we've seen now they've beaten the Rams six times in a row, it's no longer a fluke they're beating the Rams, right?

And there's a couple reasons why. So, let's talk about their defensive line because I looked at this today to write my article for Fox Sports. The reason why they have won all these games in a row, there's a couple reasons. But specifically to Matt Stafford.

Matt Stafford is number one in the NFL at passer rating, a bunch of numbers, when facing five or six rushers, right? Like blitzers, when you're blitzing Matt Stafford, okay? Yeah. The Niners are number one in the NFL, almost rushing four. Almost three to one. Like they get home one out of every three times.

And specifically against Matt Stafford, it's been a big part of what they've done. And in the two losses this year, Stafford was pressured 31% of the time with a pass rating of 61 versus when he was blitzed by the Niners, he completed 88% of passes for 12.4 yards per attempt. So you have to hit Stafford. And the Niners are good at this, right?

Bosa, Armstead, Key, like how the Rams slow them down. This is why this has been working. And then offensively, we've kind of always wondered what the secret sauce is, right? Like how is this, how the Niners offense play well against the Rams? A friend of mine, Eric Eager of Pro Football Focus broke this down, Matt. It's very interesting. It's a little in the weeds, but let me explain it. The Rams disguise pressure a lot,

though mostly NFL. So if they show you too high before the snap, they rotate down to one high after the snap. 53% of the time, they disguise their coverages, mostly NFL.

So most teams, like the Raiders, just line up and cover three and run cover three. Like there's no surprise. The Rams, though, don't do that. But the Niners shift in motion so much on offense, cover three and run cover three like there's no surprise the Rams though don't do that but the

Niners shift in motion so much on offense the Rams can't do that pre-snap right because if you if you say okay we're going to drop into from two high to one high and then they the Niners motion the guy over well that would not be good defense anymore right so the Rams are so much more static on defense which allows the Niners to know where they're going to be, which makes Jimmy G throw better passes, and obviously the run game set up for success. So to me, I think the Rams are more talented with Donald and with Floyd and Miller and Ramsey and Stafford and Akers

and Cup, all those guys, and Odell's playing great. But I'm going to roll with the hot team, man. I'll take three and a half at three, probably not, and a half mac even the niners yeah i think cup uh should has a legitimate mvp case after last week that guy if that guy is not on the field that offense just is is completely uninspiring a couple of things the first is there's a very uh there's gonna be a talking point you hear a lot this week it's a a cliche of, hey, it's really hard to beat a team three times in the same season. And that's true. But when you actually look back and see when it happens in the playoffs, it's happened 21 times.

A team that's gone 2-0 in the season has played a team the third time. It's happened 21 times, 14 times. The team that went 2-0 won the third game. 14-7. So that's two-thirds of the time. Pretty interesting given the conventional wisdom. Because they're probably just better than them. Right, and they also, there is something to be said for like,

hey, we know how to beat this team, right? Like that is a thing. Furthermore, we talked about Shanahan and McVay. You mentioned them already. They played 10 times. The Rams were favored in eight games, and Shanahan won seven of them both straight up and against the spread so catching points with shanahan here in this spot where shanahan by the

way i've said it 100 million times on this show great as a road favorite he's covered about 60 i think a little bit more road dog as a road dog excuse me so all the trends line up and say hey it's actually pretty smart to take san Francisco here. But here's my thing. San Francisco, we came into the season, and they were a really trendy Super Bowl pick, right? Like everybody really liked San Francisco as this team that could make this big run. They didn't really show it all season. Then all of a sudden, they kind of got hot.

But the thing is, Jeff, like they haven't even really played that well in the playoffs yet, honestly. Like last week, they did not play a good game. They didn't have a great offensive performance. Jeff, like they haven't even really played that well in the playoffs yet. Honestly, like last week, they did not play a good game. They didn't have a great offensive performance. They just kind of competed around the edges and won. And usually it's those teams that kind of like win despite not playing well, that suddenly have a good, a really hot week the next week. Like, I think you could argue that was the Bengals last week, but I got to say, San Francisco, if they're rolling, if they're healthy, I think they're the more talented team here, honestly.

Debo and Kopp, you could say, cancel each other out. I think Stafford and Garoppolo approximately cancel each other out. But the talent on the offensive line and the defensive line for San Francisco, I think they're probably tops in the league when you combine the two of them so i just think san francisco is the better team and this is clearly the opponent they'd most like to play so i'm riding with them so a couple a couple comments on on the niners kind of winning without without playing as well so uh this season uh jimmy grapple intermediate passes 10 uh 10 to 19 air yards.

He was top five in the NFL in completion percentage, yards per attempt to 12.4 in passer rating. In the playoffs, remember, he was completing 64% of his passes in the regular season. In the playoffs, it's down to 44%. Yards per attempt from 12.4 to 5.9. Passer rating from 118 to 24 so you would imagine you would think that that would bounce back up like it's not gonna be that if he had 17 games

worth of x and now it's y it probably goes back up to x right at some point in the playoffs i can't imagine it just continues to go down down down it down. It makes no sense, right? His play-action pass, kind of the same vein, right? Yards per attempt down in the playoffs. Completion percentage down 20% in the playoffs. I can't imagine, to your point, that he would just continue to play this poorly when he actually had some good moments in the regular season. Yeah, it's hard to put a finger on what Jimmy,

how good he actually is. But when you look at the seasons he's played, I mean, a remarkable track record of, of winning games and winning big games. Like that is the thing that we all kind of sleep on. And Stafford has the habit of losing big games. So we'll,

we'll see what happens there. Which is like, it's so weird. Like Jimmy Garoppolo, it's such a weird spot. He, he is legit not going to be the team next season, Matt, no matter what happens this year.

Well, that's something that's pretty interesting to consider is in the pick that they traded for Trey Lance, that's where Micah Parsons went. And the next pick was Rashawn Slater. Can you imagine if this team had had maybe the offensive and defensive rookie, like one of the offensive or defensive rookies of the year potentially like that is really remarkable to think about slater's not going to win obviously chase this but yeah still worth considering and trump williams by the way

i hope he's able to play he was a little beat up there's a video that i just put out he's mic'd up he was lumping around a little bit but if he plays obviously whitworth for the rams has to play too that would be very helpful for the rams so we're going Chiefs, Niners, Super Bowl rematch? I think so. I will say too, if you're betting this, there's what's going to happen here. I think this is at three and a half to cover for a little bit of uncertainty

about Fred Warner and Trent Williams and you know, Debo was quite like, there were some other things on the injury report. Yeah, but like he's going to play. All these guys are going to gonna play it's to go to the freaking super you can get steamed down on game day i think it's going to before i think there's gonna look what happened last week with derrick henry like the line moved when people saw like a video of him at practice like i don't even remember if he wasn't like looking great or like there was some sort of

like oh he's back but we don't know like that you know Once they get the all clear that Kittle's going to play, he was another who limped off at the end of the game last week. Once those guys are all sort of cleared, I bet this thing goes to three, and I bet on game day it could potentially be even less. None of the sharp guys are going to like the Rams here is my guess. Yeah, I can't imagine they're going to like them very much at all. Wow, Chiefs, are you going to be in la you'll be you know will you have moved to la before by the super bowl i will be on a plane

actually uh during this nfc championship in la and yes i will be out there oh good i'll see you i'll see you in los angeles um yeah you're you're you're gonna have a standaway present this week i saw two to twenty inches of snow in new york city for this weekend so uh that'll be your that'll be your you're going away present. Hopefully my flight makes it. Do you want to talk quickly about the totals on either of these games? Yes. So what's the – the Chiefs and Bengals total opened up super low-ish

and then just like shot right up. Yeah. It opened at 50.5. It's up to 54.5 now. I would have a hard time putting my money on under in this game yeah it's me too that feels a lot i mean last week that i think that's exactly what the total was in the bills the bills game and that cleared it in like the first half uh no i mean it was 26 if the chiefs had scored yeah yeah yeah it was yeah it was it was done um i would i i would not

and you know i like taking unders. I would not take a single cent on the under this game. Yeah, the over is 11-1 in the last 12 Chiefs games. Defense can't stop a soul. Yeah, and neither can the Bengals, so that feels promising. The other one is significantly lower. That's at 46-1⁄2. Looks like it's about, yeah, the Sharps are on the under in both of those games.

But last week they were too, and that didn't really pay off. I would take the under in this game. If we think the Niners are going to win, they're not winning a shootout, right? They're winning like 2017. Yeah, that's probably going to linger at 46.5. That's probably the number I would guess because it's split. And 44 and 47 are key numbers in the total. Yeah, I would lean under in this game. I don't feel great about either of those totals, though.

It might be a live wager type situation for both those games. Yeah, I agree. I think last week I felt like a genius after the Ryan Tannehill interception. I loaded up on Titans because the line moved. And I was like, this is so smart. But those live bets, those will make or break you, man. They really can kill you. Same thing, buddy.

Same thing I did. Yep. Brutal. All right, man. Any parting wisdom? Did we cover everything here um if you want props uh come oh yeah let's talk props come to foxsports.com later in the week i will have an article with my favorite props we go through them now a little bit but again it's wednesday man like

i'm not even i'm still writing article on how this game this nfc championship game is gonna go first i'm not there yet i mean we can run through some of them, but I – it's Wednesday. The game is not until Sunday. Props, take some time. That's a problem. I got one for you. This is more of a best practice here. So I took the 49ers to win the Super Bowl, I think plus like 20 to 1 or close to it, maybe plus 18 to 1.

Okay, nice. What would you do? Yeah, what would you do if you're me here? It was a small bet, but it's like a huge payout. If it's a small bet, you could totally just take a little bit out to cover the wager on the Rams this weekend, right? I mean, if you want to. I don't like to hedge.

I don't normally don't hedge. Yeah. Yeah, I'm not a big hedger either, especially on a future. Maybe I would take, maybe the way to play it would be to bet the exact matchup of Rams, both Super Bowls. Like bet them, you know, Rams, Bengals, and Rams Chiefs. Or just bet Rams Chiefs because I don't think there's any way they lose. And just bet that. Maybe that's the way.

Yeah, the matchup dude i had i had buffalo i had buffalo tampa bay super bowl plus 1500 that was a great value and just both teams lost this weekend um yeah this is what i i mean it might be the second and third best teams when i'll think to be i mean could you take what's the Rams – I guess the Rams are in the NFC. Is it going to be the same price as the Moneyline play, right? Yeah, that would make sense. Yeah. What's the Moneyline at now?

The Moneyline is – 150? It is minus 170, the Rams. Huh. Yeah, I think you just sit tight. What's your Niners? I love all the Niners. It's a plus what?

15 or plus 1,800 maybe, something like that. Just to win the NFC? To win the Super Bowl. So if they go to the Super Bowl, then I can hedge out, obviously. I would do. In the Super Bowl, I'd hedge out. Now, last year, remember, I had Tampa Bay like plus 700 to win the Super Bowl. So if they go to the Super Bowl, then I can hedge out, obviously. I would do. In the Super Bowl, I'd hedge out. Now, last year, remember, I had Tampa Bay

like plus 700 to win the Super Bowl. I took the kid. I mean, I bet on Kansas City anyway, so. Yeah. I have a Chiefs set to win the Super Bowl future, too. Plus 550, so.

We're golden, Jeff. Gotta bet those futures. That's how you pay for the misses in the middle of the season. I know. I have a lot of money in here. Rodgers winning the MVP, so I hope he's able to pull that in still, even though I think he will be able to.

All right. Do we get everything, buddy? I think we did. All right. Well, guys, it's going to be a wonderful weekend of football. I guess we're getting Chiefs Niners again. That means we're probably going to end up with the Bengals. Rams-Bengals.

I would be absolutely stunned if the Chiefs Niners again. That means they're probably going to end up with the Bengals. Rams-Bengals. Dude, I would be absolutely stunned if the Chiefs lost that game. Yeah. Like, they can, obviously. They might not cover. But if they lost that game, man,

I mean, they've lost two playoff games under Pat Mahomes. Yeah. Both to Tom Brady. Both to Tom Brady. And one of them was when D4 was off sides.

It was when his entire offensive line was out. I agree. It seems, I mean, good on Cincy. I just hope they don't become this year's like, remember that Jacksonville team that you were like, trust me, they're going to fall apart. I hope they don't become that next year.

They can still win the Super Bowl. But this is important, right? Because Buffalo fans, and I get it, are like, well, we'll get him next year. You don't ever know. Yeah, right. I went to the division around my first year in the NFL with the Panthers in 2008.

We were 2-14 two years later. All right? Like, we were the two seed. We were 12-4 in 2008. And in 2010, we're 2 and 14 happens fast sometimes and then you get Cam Newton

you get Cam Newton so it happens fast sometimes guys so you just have to win the games in front of you and again I think it'd be tough for the Bengals

to do so alright guys we'll talk to you next week we're powered by the Varsity Podcast Network have a great weekend of football you can tweet me

at Jeff Schwartz at MM410. Yes, sir. Thank you. All right, guys. Have a great weekend.