Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Season Ending Injuries, Backup QBs, and What’s Going On in the AFC?

Episode Date: November 2, 2021

Geoff and Gabe open with the breaking news that Von Miller was traded to LA for a sack of peanuts and discuss what that shows about the Rams’ philosophy this year. Then they break down the ripple effects of Derrick Henry’s season-ending foot injury, the backup quarterbacks that stole the show this weekend (hello, Mike White!), and what deals contenders could swing at the trade deadline to keep themselves in the playoff hunt. Plus, the Steelers may be better than Geoff wanted to admit.On Moving the Line, Gabe asks Geoff to share his thoughts on Calvin Ridley and other NFL players taking the conversation about mental health to the forefront. Then they get into LA teams and their playoff odds, the Manning Curse (watch out, Bills fans), and Geoff tells you what he thinks about adults dressing up for Halloween.Remember to leave a rating if you enjoyed the pod, and comment if you want your question to be featured in an upcoming mailbag segment!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's tuesday november 2nd i'm jeff schwartz alongside gabe going this is jeff schwartz smarter than you we're powered by the varsity podcast network we are covering the national football league eight weeks in the books a lot happened the trade deadline is closely approaching we're having some trades happening right now we have injuries in the nfl new leaders in the afc but gabe first off how many pieces of candy of your kids' candy did you eat for Halloween? I was going at a one-to-one ratio. Multiply that by three kids. So I was eating three pieces of candy for every piece of candy any kid ate.

I was stuffing down Reese's. I was very disappointed. Jeff, tell me how to handle this. My kids were given the option by a lot of our neighbors, go ahead, reach in and take one. And I had to interject and like swat some garbage candy out of their hands was like dude dude not a york peppermint patty there's a reesey peanut butter cup right there brother pick up the right piece of candy so i am like i just i didn't even go up to the doors i just sit in the street i'm holding like bags of candy because like my

kid but what i thought was appropriate for these kids to have like these little like baby like little mickey mouse i'm like our kids are huge they're not gonna they're gonna fill this up in two houses and they did and so i had to go back and dump the candy off one time and um no mike but my kids i told you we just let them eat whatever they want they ate candy the entire two hours that we were trick-or-treating uh and then none at the house like they were like stuffed so um yeah i had i've had two pieces today so far after this i'm probably gonna have a third i had a milky way and a twix so far today okay very nice i uh yeah i'm not worried about how much they consume or i consume i was just thinking this we got one chance we got to learn sort of your your candy food groups you know you don't reach for a starburst when there's reese's there yeah but my kids like

starburst and jolly ranchers and like they're not reese's fans okay i i just think you got to go chocolate based above all else i agree with that i'm with you on that chocolate based of everything else chocolate based unless they're sour patch kids kids little mini bags go for it but almond joy my wife's in there whispering in their ear go get the almond joy almond joy is garbage people like almond joy i was pretty funny so i don't know if i made this point on this show i've made on my radio show arguing over candy crush is like arguing over a flour tortilla like it's just a complete waste of time it's like the blandest thing we ever argue about on social media. At best, it's the 20th best candy.

It works at the 20th best candy. There's no – it's candy corn. Why do we argue about it so much? But my kids got back to candy corn. My wife was like, ooh, I like candy corn. Out of the blue, it's really funny because out of all the debate we have for weeks about candy corn, it was like just – she's like, oh, I like it. She's on the internet. No idea what's

happening on social well it's good coach mike leach would have been proud of me because i literally i offended a neighbor my son reached in he hadn't seen candy corn before he picked it up and i literally was like what are you doing put that garbage down and this poor old lady was like um i was like put the candy corn down We don't eat that in this family. And I made him take a new thing. That's incredible. So you offended him. That's why you lost your mayoral votes for city council.

Yeah, no softening of the edges here. I tell it like it is on the streets of Marina del Rey. Speaking of telling it like it is here in LA, we got some big news. LA Rams fans are excited because they just traded a second and third rounder next year for Von Miller, who, listen, stat dorks will tell me he's still got it. He's still a great pass rusher. Well, he's making a new super team. Jeff, even though I'm kind of sort of a little bit on the bandwagon of the LA Rams, these super teams gross me out. I don't like this. i'm glad at least he's not going to tampa bay

like every other ring chaser but von miller la feels like cheating to me okay well first of all he did not choose this he was traded um and so it's a little different than choosing the free agent the interesting part about this trade is i don't know if this makes them a super bowl champion but what it does it continues to test the theory of draft picks versus known assets, right? Because the Rams have no draft picks. Like for 2022, Field Yates has this, okay? The number one, the first round pick traded to the Lions.

The second round pick traded to the Broncos. Third round pick traded to the Broncos. They get a compensatory pick, to the Broncos. Third round pick traded to the Broncos. They get a Brad, they get a compensatory pick by the way. Fourth round pick traded. They own their fifth round pick. Congratulations. Sixth round pick traded and they own a seventh round pick plus have an extra. So they're, they're like, we want known assets. We're going to trade for guys that we want. Matt Stafford, Vaughn Miller, Jalen Ramsey. We. We got them, and we're going to let draft picks go. Now, obviously, at some point it crumbles, right?

If you don't win a Super Bowl, then you have no one to replace any of these players. You haven't brought in any players. You have no depth for guys. If guys get hurt, anyways, if guys get hurt, you're not winning anyways. But it's an interesting test because there are teams that might model this. If it works, for sure are teams that might model this if it works if it works for sure they're gonna model this hey we're gonna get rid of basically draft picks and just take known quantities known known commodities i should say and so interesting and denver's

eating the money too so they don't even pay any really any money for von miller but again game i don't know if it if it Super Bowl favorites. It definitely makes them better on defense, but not Super Bowl favorites. Well, okay. But I mean, they already have the best defensive player anyone can think of clogging up the middle. They already had some good pass rushers. Now they have one of the best we've ever seen. I mean, you can say it doesn't make a huge difference,

but their offense clearly doesn't need any help. Stafford and Cupup are clicking. Woods looks good. Every running back they plug in can run. The line seems solid. I mean, I didn't think they had very many question marks on defense, but this takes care of it, right? I mean, and their biggest fear is Rodgers and Brady.

Well, this is one more guy to be in their face in January. You can never have too many players in impactful positions. Corner, defensive end, or Aaron Donald. And quarterback and left tackle. All four positions are of top quality. And so they're on the way to winning the West, especially first, obviously, and then hopefully in TNC. But I'm not sure this makes them a better favorite

than Tampa or Dallas right now. Okay, well, we're going to Tampa or Dallas right now. Okay. Well, we're going to get to Dallas and Tampa in moments. That was the first sort of bonus topic that I wasn't planning, but news just broke. Another thing to mention, Jameis Winston looks like he's going to be out for the year. We're going to talk about what that means in New Orleans. And then also breaking after Sunday was Derrick Henry. Looks like he's going to miss the whole year

messed up foot problems surgery he's gone so the Titans who just became the hottest team in the AFC just beat the team that shall not be named on this podcast they lose their MVP but signed Adrian Peterson huh you'll tell me why that does or doesn't make any sense here's the thing my guy Rex Ryan summed it up perfectly there's no player in the league that means more to his football team than derrick henry and derrick henry's gone titans bye-bye we're done knowing you this season oh geez well first of all the team that we don't mention just had the most glorious of plays and the people were like well if he'd taken a safety game was over so it's better he threw the interception like sure whatever you say guys i've never dude i i love emmanuel but

like emmanuel acho tweet the same thing every week carson wentz has only thrown one interception then immediately afterwards multiple interceptions thrown and then it's every week danielovsky right same thing carson wentz guys he's coming back it's like he's the same guy he's always been he's not any good all right let's get back to derrick henry it's a big loss for them uh but we'll say yesterday he had 86 yards ish his worst game in a long time obviously because he had a broken foot uh they won the game they won they came out for 14 points and won the game now yet carson wentz helped them win the football game seven points were a giveaway. And they threw the interception in overtime.

But the offense will be fine. But this is a great, this is great. This is a great, great test case for all the data, all the talk, all the questions about whether or not it's an offensive line or running back or the running back or the play-action pass fake, right? Because we talk a lot about is it the back? Is it establishing the run? Is it this and that?

Like, Adrian Peterson doesn't make up the difference, in my opinion. I'm curious to see what he has left in the tank. But this will answer all those questions. He's obviously not the most valuable player. I mean, come on, Rex. Like, get out of here. I mean, Lamar Jackson has 17 injuries on the Ravens, and they're still 5-2.

I mean, Lamar's more valuable to the team than Derrick Henry is. But his point, I think, is this, more than the player itself. It's the physical mindset, right? It's that we're going to go pound you. We're going to physically dominate a game, and we know we have a back that can do that, right, that can physically dominate that game. Maybe also from his point of view as a defensive guy it helps the play action pass maybe i guess

again the data shows it doesn't if they still run the ball with the same kind of number and cadence and pace the play should be fine but this will test all that game and we'll see i'm looking forward to seeing i'm bummed he's hurt but i'm looking forward to seeing how we'll answer all these questions this year. Okay. So this show spends a lot of time directly and indirectly talking about how you shouldn't pay the running back as much money as you do, that they're a little bit more interchangeable. Even with the best guy in the game and Derrick Henry, some other guy might be able to be 80% as good in the right system. And that's sort of been our attitude around here. But I guess I would argue that Derrick Henry does seem like he is that difference-making guy. And Rex is not as wrong as he often is. I don't know

why you're so quick to say that he's not the MVP. The whole thing is built around his power and his strength. I'm thinking of a fourth and one that they pitch it to him. He catches the ball eight yards deep and has to make a couple cuts and power over someone and dive for a first down yesterday to keep the game going. They only have the confidence to run that play because it's Derrick Henry back there. That's the most valuable player on the team.

Well, look, the numbers have shown that when Ryan Tannehill took over in that offense, Derek Henry got better all of a sudden. His numbers drastically increased and improved when Ryan Tannehill took over. But here's the thing, Gabe. We could argue about this for hours if you want, but we're going to get 12 weeks of – well, not exactly 12 weeks. We'll get 10 weeks, 11 weeks weeks of data of games of of what's going to happen without derrick henry in this office and we'll end of that time we'll tell you

now the times are pretty interesting because you know we like to use a lot of you know dvoa and epa and some of those stats and we evaluate teams i mean tennessee is the dv is not good for six and two team like i'm not even sure they're that good so if they even kind of come back down to earth a little bit people are going to blame that on on derrick henry not being there when that actually might not be the case at all they might just come back down to earth because they're not as good as we think they've won a couple of games in overtime they've won it just so don't be fooled by that a couple weeks i mean if they lose a couple games like oh because henry's not there now if their offense struggles might only gave then yeah it could be henry but i don't think it'll be the problem i just think you know they'll be fine

not gonna make explosive runs probably but they're gonna be fine offensively more will be on tanhill okay then fantasy isn't usually your thing but do i go go put in a waiver claim for Adrian Peterson? Or is it like, can he find it? He wasn't. I was looking at his numbers right now. So, in 2019 with Washington, he averaged 4.3 yards per carry. Not bad. Detroit last year, 3.9. But, I mean, who could run the ball Detroit?

If you have Derek Henry, I'd go get Adrian Peterson. But I'm not sure I would. I have Alvin Kamara and Joe Mixon. I'm not going to get them. Well, la-di-da, Jeff. Some of us are struggling through the season. I think I lost this week. I had no Lamar Jackson. He was out. Matt Ryan didn't do it for me. Come on. No. Matt Ryan's bloody hand weren't helping me either. All right. Well, let's talk about a backup in Adrian Peterson and go to all the backup quarterbacks who played on Sunday.

I mentioned Jameis earlier. That's a bummer. Jameis was having a pretty nice season. Then he had that kind of awkward moment. It turns out it looks like he tore his ACL, so he's out for the season, which sets up a big question about who's the actual quarterback there, your boy Taysom Hill or other.

We saw Cooper Rush. That's a person. He won a game for the Cowboys on Sunday night. We saw Mike White, the Jets backup. I don't know what number we're up to now, but he looked better than any quarterback I've seen in New York since Chad Pennington. And we got another one. There's another backup somewhere out there. I'm forgetting. Four backups were part of wins. Oh, obviously Walker filled in for Darnold and got the win with Carolina.

What's going on here? Why are backups looking so good, especially Cooper Rush? Did a little bit of you tingle inside when you watched Mike White with the Jets? Did it bring some of the fandom back? I thought about coming home. Yeah, I did. I did. Especially as New England gutted my Chargers.

I thought maybe I should go back to being a Jets fan. Mike White and Cam Newton, the first two quarterbacks, the only two in NFL history with over 400 yards in their first start. How about that? Pretty good stat. And, by the way, two of their starters were tipped past the room with bad passes. He just got tipped and popped up in the air. Very quickly before I get to the backup quarterbacks as a whole,

even in the Jetson game. So the Bengals, I don't know if the Bengals are on here for a topic, but the Bengals are interesting because... Get used to it, people. There's not going to be much Bengals talk anymore. Well, it's an important,

very quick discussion to have. I'll tweet this out, but I'll make this point. The Bengals are a good example yesterday of a team that is learning how to be good in the NFL. They're a good team. They have good players. They have good teams.

I think their coaching staff looks like they're competent. But all week, all I saw was Bengals fans counting up their wins, Bengals fans talking about the future and the playoffs and this and that, and then you get your ass kicked by the Jets. That is the NFL. It's hard each week to continue to have that mindset of one week at a time, of every week you can win, every week you can lose, and just kind of having that mindset of learning how to be successful. And that was the lesson I took away from this game

is that Bengals just didn't bring it. They didn't bring it. And at any given Sunday, you can lose. Because the Jets guys, yeah, they're not very good, but they get paid too. They want to win. They don't want to lose. And so the Jets played really well.

Not even really well. They played okay. The Bengals just didn't match up. Terrible call at the end of that game. But when you allow 34 points to Mike White, I don't feel bad that you had a bad call. It was impressive for Mike White. But all this stuff doesn't mean had a bad call. It was impressive for Mike White, but all this stuff doesn't mean anything to me. It just shows you

that, look, Sean Payne's a good football coach. We knew that, right? He's done really well with backup quarterbacks. And you read it. He's done well with backup quarterbacks. Good football coaches, right? Geno Smith got the win, who we failed to mention, but they played the hapless Jaguars. I'm okay. When Russell Wilson comes back, that's Russell Wilson's

job. Oh, Cooper Rush. Well,ings are the tweets for the tweets that were floating around i fell asleep last night i was tired i didn't watch the end of the game till this morning so welcome to a bunch of tweets bro and they the tweets are are incredible like the vikings are a mess there's one here bill bonner will tweet out cowboys our backup quarterback is in so let's run a double pass with cedric wilson vikings we have a 35 million dollar quarterback a superstar running back two star wide receivers so let's force feed cj ham and make sure we throw short the sticks every third down they're just like poorly coached

it's that simple cowboysboys didn't do anything special. Look, in the NFL, these are all pros playing. If you keep a team in a game, they always have a chance to win at the end. That's what happened. You kept the Cowboys in the game because you couldn't execute an offense. The Cowboys offensively didn't do anything special.

They have good players. They got the ball in the good players' hands. They made more plays than you did. It's more about the Vikings, in my opinion, than the Cowboys. But this is a win, by the way, you have good players. They got the ball in the good players' hands. They made more plays than you did. It's more about the Vikings, in my opinion, than the Cowboys. But this is a win, by the way, you have to have, if you're the Cowboys, to have the number one seed. We saw Kansas City, when Mahomes went out in 2019, that Matt Moore won one of two games. That one game made a difference to get him that one seed.

This is the type of games you win on the way to making a Super Bowl. Yeah. I've never quite asked it this way are there just guys who are supposed to be backups like yes right like it feels like teddy bridgewater i i always felt like he was he wasn't getting quite enough credit but every time you give him the full job it doesn't really seem like that's the guy but he's always been the best backup available. And he can win a stretch of games for the Saints while Drew Brees is getting healthy. And so I don't know if Cooper Rush is actually a good backup or not, but there's just these guys that are good for the

quarterback room, who can play for a quarter of a season if needed, who can step in for a quarter and keep the team afloat. Why does every backup have to be seen as somebody else's future starter you know well we obsess about things we don't know right and we see every now and then the backup tom brady right become tom brady with all that's that's happening again it's not the right steve young tom brady like who else is in like even in that conversation of the ryan tanhill i guess a little bit with he was playing Marcus Mariota. Yeah, but like it's like one of those things where we just love fairytale stories. This is part of a fairytale story is these backup quarterbacks

becoming what they are. And most, yeah, you're right. Most often backups are less talented. Just what it is. Still an NFL player. Just less talented. Not as good, not as quick, not as fast. Don't have the arm, a quarterback,

the mental processing of quarterback that Dak Prescott has. There's now obviously quarterback controversy in New York. That'll be fun to watch because Mike White obviously is going to supplant Zach Wilson at some point. But, you know, I just – that's what it is, Gabe. It's just some players aren't as good as the others and that's okay. There's plenty of players that made a career being back a backup. I did that for part of my career.

So I got a chance to play and it was like, Oh, Jeff can actually play. We got more chances to start. And I was, I was, uh, good enough when I played. And so that's what it is. Some people in life, like I'm, dude, I am, I get the first opportunity in my life to be part of this show. And hopefully I have more news at some point, but like, I'm part of the ownership group of this show, the show where I'm trying to get off the ground.

I've never been that way. I've never been part of an ownership group. I've never had to deal with like ownership issues. And I'm like, ah, do I really want to do this? Like, do I really want to, I'd rather just maybe just be talent. And that sounds like I hate that freaking word with so much passion. just want to be the you know the person behind the mic and not the person running the business and like some people just are more comfortable doing that i'm an i like i like learning about kind of ownership of things and i've enjoyed the process but there's

been a lot of kind of ups and downs and things i didn't expect and things i haven't really liked doing but so some people are made out to be back. Some people are made out to be the star, just the way it is. Okay. Well, then Taysom Hill, I think, believes that he's a star. Now he might have his chance. So let's talk about that backup situation. Trevor Simeon, lifelong backup, to your point. Seems like everyone's favorite backup.

Does an okay job. They beat Brady. Good on them. But whose job is this for the rest of the season? Because the Saints look like they could compete for a wild card. What if the Saints go get themselves Teddy Bridgewater from the Broncos? Yeah, maybe. The Broncos have a file sale.

Probably Taysom Hill's job, I would imagine, when he gets back from concussion protocol. I mean, he's only 34. Might as well give him a chance to be a starting quarterback now. But the thing with Taysom Hill, though, is you have to change your offense. And that offense works for three or four weeks, but is it going to work from week nine to week 18 and then work in the playoffs?

Again, you're going to have more success in your traditional offense. That's not what Taysom Hill does. So it's not going to be Simeon, though. I don't think it'll be him. But do you get yourself Teddy Bridgewater? That's the question. Or Cam. I don't think it's Cam.

I think it's Teddy. I think you go get yourself Teddy Bridgewater. Okay. Well, then I could see that happening, and then Denver does start a fire sale, even though they started hot. They know they don't have it this year. They've looked at their schedule.

All right. But Dak, we think, returns healthy soon enough. He's in the driver's seat. Obviously, there's no quarterback controversy in Dallas. Teddy is an interesting one there. I don't actually care who the quarterback is in Carolina. Whatever. And the Jets thing, it's a joke until we figure out if Mike White and Zach Wilson are actually competing for a job.

We'll see. So let's go to another team in the AFC who doesn't have a quarterback controversy. They just have a crappy quarterback. That's the only reason you don't love them. That's the Steelers. Jeff, I want to give you a redo. Okay. You were out on them. You've been consistently out on them this year. They beat the Browns on Sunday. I thought they looked pretty good. The defense is very good. Ben is okay, okay i suppose they're winners of three in a row they should have an easy one next week like do you want to maybe revise your take on the steelers because i feel like the bandwagon is going to get full soon i'm not going to revise my take on them because offensively they are what they are like that's the problem it's always been offensively

i mean they scored 15 points in a one of an nfl. That's not often going to happen to you, right? They dominated the trenches. I thought that the offensive line was getting better, but the offensive line can't pass protect. They bend stone the ball very fast. And as you saw last year, the longer the season got, Ben's arm got a little bit weaker, move as well. So defensively, Gabe, no problem with them defensively.

But they just aren't good enough on offense. Now they might make the playoffs. I might be wrong about that. I mean, they're closer to making the playoffs than not. They're four and three right now. They haven't played the Ravens yet. They lost the Bengals. So I will say that they're better than I thought, but the offense, I think, still holds them back in the end. Okay. Only losses to what look like playoff teams and the Raiders, maybe the Bengals, and obviously the Packers. They beat the Bills week one. I'm just – I don't know.

I also was like, I don't know about these Steelers. They're very well coached by USC's future head coach head coach and um and i get why he was upset about that man oh boy i mean imagine that having the prestige of mike tomlin and being asked if we're going to coach usc no offense to usc but geez i mean like that's why he was upset i mean imagine again like he said like would you ask andy reed about this like well it wasn't rumored to be the usc coach but uh imagine you were the head coach of oregon heading towards a playoff run and you were being asked if you want to take the usc coach if we want to do this game jeff we can both do it imagine the insult to that yeah it is very

insulting that's why it's not taking that job um look they're just they're just very well coached when they play their app and when you are have a team that is physical in the trenches on both sides of the ball, you give yourself a chance to win each week. And when things, you know, a couple of things break right here and there it works. Now I thought that the, you know, the, the, the, the fake field goal was a terrible decision. Obviously got the kicker hurt.

That's not, you know, that, that happens in football. So, you know, they still made some coaching errors. But again, they dominate the trenches. And when you do that each week, you have a chance. No matter how bad your offense is. All right. Well, then can we agree then that we can retire the Browns from future conversation? I already did that to the team that plays in Indianapolis.

Are we done with the team in Cleveland? Man, they're upsetting me, man. I had high hopes for them this year, and their quarterback's just not good enough. No, he's not. And I'm so happy for him that he was fired up about getting knocked out of bounds, but picking up a first down.

I was so worried, dude. Like, how many quarterbacks would get up, like, you're losing that game. You just got, I mean, you got hit, sure. How many other quarterbacks in the NFL are getting up and pumping their fists and doing all that? Not the top 15 guys are not doing it. No.

It was total amateur hour. And, I mean, it would have been fun in a college game, but professional athletes are not responding to that in any meaningful way. No. He shouldn't really. I mean, questionable why he was even in the game at all this week. It was like he could barely hold his arm up who knows what they shot him with but it was sort of silly to see him out there but all right so

we've had a hard time keeping track of who the the best teams in this conference are the titans ascend and yet lose the best player on the team you know the steelers you're not totally sold on the chargers fall back now the patriots are in the conversation you know the Steelers you're not totally sold on the Chargers fall back now the Patriots are in the conversation you know the Chiefs aren't aren't what we expected them to be exactly like the Bills quietly clobber the Dolphins uh so are they back to number one who who am I looking at in the AFC it's a good question I think the Bills are the most complete team right now. Offensively, they're a little bit up and down, right? But defensively, they're much better this year.

They're a bunch of good defense. The Titans, again, I just defensively not quite sold on them. The Raiders are 5-2. Does anyone expect the Raiders to keep this up? I don't. Nope. The Ravens, again, I go back to what I said, I think, earlier in this show. How long

can Lamar Jackson continue to hold this team up with all their injuries? They are so beat up. Not good on defense this year. Beat up on the offensive line. Like, it's just, it's hard for them to keep doing that each week. It's going to be difficult. The Patriots are interesting. They're getting better. I mean, look,

everyone's shit on Bill Belichick, but it's almost like, oh, the rookie got better. What a surprise. Weird how that happens. They're not a threat to win the AFC, but it could give someone in trouble in the playoff game. The Chargers have kind of fallen back to earth a little bit. They're 4-4.

They have some issues on the offensive line, the right side of the offensive line. They can't stop the run. But, dude, I know everyone's going to hate me doing this, but there's a team in Kansas City that just – they're not that far off from being the team that they were in 2018. Not 2019. 2018, their defense was 26th.

They're 31st right now. A little bit better on defense. Offense get back on. Are you telling me that – they're not winning the AFC? I mean, they're not winning the one seed. But are you looking forward to them coming to your place in January as a six or seven seed? You know, for six weeks on this show, you asked me that question rhetorically,

and I said, no, of course I'm not looking forward to them. These days, I'd welcome them. Come on in, Pat. Bring the boys. We'd love to beat up on you guys and run up about 45 points against you. No problem. They're just not threatening anymore, Jeff. And I'm not saying they won't actually turn it on when it matters,

but nobody's scared of them like they used to be. By the way, Chargers 4 and 3, don't cheat my Chargers and give them an extra loss. I do think the Chargers will figure it out. And it's been weird watching them the last couple of weeks, right? When it looked like things were clicking and they fall back. So who knows there? I feel like the NFL this year is sort of like the Big Ten. Like all the good teams are on one side of it.

And the other half, you're like, oh, yeah, yeah. What are we supposed to do with this? Like the NFC has the four teams that you think can win the super bowl the afc has none of them at least currently about halfway through yeah i mean it does feel that way but this is what makes this year kind of fun right is i think when we enter the playoffs we're going to enter the playoffs whoever has the one seat has obviously the advantage of the buy right so we're going to give that team probably buffalo the the like okay they, okay, they have to win two games in the Super Bowl. But I think it's kind of fun, man.

I think the NFC has got Tampa, Dallas, the Rams, Packers. Yeah, they're more top-heavy. Chiefs-Packers next week, though. That'd be kind of fun. We'll see where both teams are at. I think it's in Kansas City, too. So Chiefs are actually favored in the look-ahead line. But it's going to be a fun – this is a long season, buddy.

We got nine regular season weeks – 10, actually, regular season weeks left. We've been through eight. We have 10 weeks left still. There is no overwhelming favor with the AFC. I'm with you there. I wouldn't put money on anyone right now. I really wouldn't. Okay. Well, I'm'm gonna ask you a few more questions about the rams uh on the other end of the break i want to come back to the moves they made and their real chances in the nfc and

also since we're talking about the bills we have to talk about the bills may may may be cursed there's a very real curse that is alive and brewing. And I want to tell everyone about it right after the break. We'll be back to move the line right after this. All right, Jeff, we're back. I did my best greenie tease on the way to break. I really teased the hell out of it. I'll get to the man and curse topic momentarily. First, kind of a serious one, because this is the kind of thing I'm always interested in your perspective on. Not much to joke about, though. Right in the middle of the football day yesterday, Calvin Ridley of the Falcons tweeted out word that he

is stepping away from football for now. He wants to focus on his mental health. This is something that has come up a bunch in sports in recent months. We know that Lane Johnson, friend of the show, did something similar with a little less attention earlier this season. So Ridley is out. And I guess, you know, to use the format, you know, over under 45% chance we see more of this this season, that more guys will feel more comfortable making statements like this and taking some time away.

So we had Lane Johnson, as you mentioned, right? Who stepped away for three weeks. He was interesting conversation with him and Jay Glazer with Calvin Ridley. And look, I think mental health is something that we discussed a little bit on this show, right? I saw a sports psychologist and then it kind of turned into like a life psychologist for junior year in college till about, I don't know, so 10 years probably. I don't talk to him as much anymore, but it was very helpful.

I mean, like sometimes you just, you have things going on in life, you need to talk to some about, you need to get right. And I appreciate Lane Johnson talking about it. I'm sure Calvin really will at some point. We've had other players, Brandon Brooks of the Eagles. He had to take a couple games off for anxiety, bad anxiety attacks. I know of other players who've had issues with this as well, and I'm very glad they're talking about it because it's a life issue.

It's not just football players. We all have it in our daily lives, and to hear them talk about it and be accepted on a large scale I think might not make it easier, but more accepting in other walks of life as well. It doesn't make it easier that Lane Johnson spoke up. It's nice to have an advocate that he spoke up. But I really do appreciate that we're at a place now where NFL players and teams are willing to acknowledge mental health is something that we should focus on. Yeah, it does seem like there's more. The conversation on these panels, these desks of ex-football players are getting a little bit more sensitive.

And this is a topic that they're all finding a way to cover in their own way. And it's never would have been. They would have had a lot of private feelings shared in the green room, and it would have sound sort of caveman ish to a lot of us. And's never would have been they would have had a lot of private feelings shared in the green room and it would have sounded sort of caveman-ish to a lot of us and it never would have made air and now these guys are talking about it in a real way because star players are talking about it i think that's progress but i also think though that some of us and i never dealt with depression i very i have very little anxiety i'm very lucky in that way um and i'm good at dealing with kind of processing things in my own life.

And part of that, again, was I think because I went to therapy for 10 years. But I think that some of the guys talking about this, Gabe, have probably had real issues with it. And they understand what the players are going through. They've just never been able to talk about it because it's not been acceptable for a big, strong, tough football player. Lane Johnson is 6'6", 3'10". I mean, he is a large individual.

And to hear him talk about depression, anxiety, and things that he's dealing with lets other people that might not be the same as Lane, the stature, have not felt comfortable speaking about it. Well, if this guy can do it, then I'll talk about it. And I think that's how we start the conversation. think that the pan of the you know who you're talking about like myself included we've dealt with it before so we're able to to talk about it because we have life experience with it yeah and i'll add on um besides just the physical stature like i i

don't know lane like you do but i've i've you know been around him doing some recordings and stuff. And he's an incredibly lighthearted, funny, seemingly happy person who obviously in private moments, there's some other stuff going on inside his head that he needs to work on. But you would never meet Lane Johnson and think he was anything other than the life of the party. So that makes it even more interesting for the rest of us to see, oh, wait a minute. This guy's got some actual issues going on. We should all examine this because if he has this, anyone could. Lane is the best, man. He's so country. I love Lane.

He's awesome. Yeah, really funny dude. So I want to go back to some football talk here and lighten things up for us with some sillier questions. So Jeff, pay very close attention how i word this because it's going to give you a few ways to think about it which la team will be playing more games in january the rams or the chargers now they both will play regular season games into january but then who's going to play more games as we go through January? AFC or NFC LA team?

The Rams. They're just better than the Chargers right now. Chargers are the first-time head coach. Purcell's not as good. Scheme's not as good. It's going to be the Rams for sure. Okay, but trick question, what if they get a bye? Now, that's one last week.

Aha, aha, aha. See, I got you, Jeff. Can't answer these questions so quickly. You got to pay close attention. You're a little, little buddy here. Your producer friend,

still the Rams, still the Rams. Okay. I see. I just think that the chargers who don't look great this week, make the playoffs and are the hot team when it counts. And I think Staley is smarter than every chargers fan. Yeah.

Chargers fan speaking here i just i just think the afc we just talked about it they're so watered down whoever's hot at the right time could blow through the conference they're probably they're not going to be the one seed but they could you know they could be at home for a couple weeks uh i like the chargers odds that's all they both have one one home game in January, by the way. Yep. That's how that works. Share a building.

All right. Next up. This is breaking news for some people, but this is starting to seem very, very real. I want to know over under 75.5% the Manning curse is real. Let me give you some context. Every time a player comes on the Manning cast, the Monday night simulcast that Eli and Peyton haveton have been doing that player loses the next game okay i'm gonna list off a few travis kelsey on week one lost week two uh russell wilson on week one lost week two gronk week two lost week three stafford week three lost week four and then brady of course last, he loses this week. Stat Muse, thank you for the help on this one. Jeff, do you believe in this curse?

I mean, now I do. So that means that either Josh Allen, Jon Stewart, or Michael Irving are going to have a pretty bad week. I've not watched Jon Stewart's new show. I don't really know how that's going to go. Michael Irving, they're arguing on first take. Is it first take with Stephen A? Oh, yeah. He could have a bad day with Stephen A.

A bad day with Stephen A. But the Bills play. They're like 17-point favorites again this weekend at home against Jacksonville, I want to say. So the curse is bound to end, I think, with Buffalo hosting Jacksonville. Okay. But, man, if Buffalo loses that game, I think we have to say this is the most official curse we can sorry the bills are oh the bills are in jacksonville yeah 14 point favorites oh boy oh boy yeah this is urban meyer redemption game kind of that guy looks so miserable why are you

coaching buddy just give it up just be done with it go back to fox you were good i'm not so sure that's that's going to be what happens i i don't know what happens next it's not going to usc oh no no way all right well we're gonna have to keep an eye on this one by the way the manning simulcast is the best thing on television right now john stewart's new show also going to be a great watch. But I would say I would put the Manning simulcast ahead of Succession, ahead of some of the other shows we talk about on here.

It's just much watched TV everywhere. And by the way, Curb has been excellent so far. Yes, yes. Curb I'm saving for a stretch where there can be no interruption. I also finished Chad Lasso for the season.

So big time lasso count out on the streets last night it was uh oh yeah it's the most common dad costume no surprise and i realized i said to my wife it's just because most of us have all the elements of that costume just right there in our day-to-day wardrobe so you do something your hair and grow a mustache for a few weeks and boom you're ted lasso yeah i didn't see any ted lassos no ted lassos no squid game but then again it was mostly i don't see any adults dressing up in my neighborhood oh well yeah no the adults get into it out here and uh there were a lot of lassos and i didn't see many squid games that surprised me i know we're saving this maybe for the final take of Over Under, but talk about it now.

The dressing up for Halloween thing, if you're an adult, I just don't really get it. Well, let's get right into it. Let's do it. And I want to talk about it in the context of Aaron Rodgers. So Aaron Rodgers hinted that he was in a years-long Halloween costume that would pay off at Halloween. We didn't know what he was talking about for months. He was taking it very seriously. And then he revealed it hard for a podcast. Maybe the people can Google it right now. He revealed his costume was him as John Wick. And I think he did it because the idea of like, you asked to have me back and now i'm back and then like killing everyone essentially like there's a theme here was this all worth it like why what what the hell was that definitely

not worth it i i just i understand the people like to dress up for halloween because it makes them kind of like get a different mood maybe and right they feel you know get a little opportunity to act a little different and be in a costume and show some personality but i just don't i don't get it like i just like my wife i she went to halloween party on saturday night and thankfully i didn't have to go because she forgot to get a babysitter i had to stay home with the kids i just watched football by myself and i had a cigar like the greatest time ever on a saturday night i don't get the dressing up thing i It's not my thing. Yeah. I didn't put any effort into a costume this year. I just put on a bunch of things I like and

called myself Gabe's happy place. Didn't make any sense to anyone, but that's okay. I was in my happy place. Did your wife dress up? No, no. I understand if you're doing it with your kids, if you're doing like a theme with your kids, okay, fine. I've done that before. But yeah, your kids are too young to worry about that we ran a halloween themed 5k in the morning so i'm a mini 5k oh don't do this jeff then you know not full-on 5k nothing mini about it you can 3.2 miles no mini it's not a mini triathlon nothing like it full 5k we ran it i pushed about 90 pounds of human flesh in a stroller while my wife just ran next to me and the the winners of the race i'm calling them winners

were dressed as a full family of ups delivery people including a baby in a ups truck so that was creative that was worth okay yeah i would say if you're gonna go that far good otherwise anything short of that is pointless. Yeah, it's just I don't really get it. But I understand that it gives you the opportunity to wear something a little bit more revealing as well, which the men don't often partake in. But it is something that is enjoyable to look at at times, especially when you're in college. Now you're older. It's not as, I would say, something that I would do. But yeah, but yeah i mean i get that part of it that's not a part i disagree with it's the only

part yeah i think uh without without ending either of our careers i'll say i enjoy it more uh as i'm older not less but uh you know fewer occasions for for people to dress that way when you're walking around with kids jeff i think we've covered it you got some picks to make on thursday uh oh we had our first we had our first our first in eight weeks our first oh it actually went well for us this week oh nice buffalo with a late cover and dallas beat minnesota okay so there you go finally like a like an actual like wow shit went well for us this week. Okay, so keep it rolling, baby. Make some good picks this week.

Spread the love around the college game and the NFL. Make us all some money. I will make us in the Pac-12 especially. I'll tell you right now, take Oregon over Washington, everyone. Wherever we game, we're going to smash Washington. Okay. Just have a lot of fun doing that. My Pac-12 picks continue to be on fire.

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very helpful to the podcast. And we'll be back on Thursday. We have a winning week. Hope to stack, I think two straight winning weeks in a row now. So hope to stack some more to go down. And yeah, guys, talk to you in a couple of days.