Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Season Long Bets

Episode Date: January 28, 2021

Geoff and Matt jump into their preseason predictions to review what they got right, what they got wrong, and why. They cover season long player props, win totals, and their predicted divisional winners. They then discuss the NFL's QB carousel, making their predictions where each free agent to be will land. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, January 28th. Welcome in to Jeff Schwartz's Smart With You. I am Jeff Schwartz alongside Matt Ford. This will be a little different. Normally today we talk about the games ahead. We talk about the wagers we like, the sides we like, the props we like. But guess what? There's no game this weekend. There's no Pro Bowl this weekend. So we're not going to do that, Matt. What we're going to do is we're going to gamble on different things, like where every quarterback lands. We're going to go over the 18 or so quarterbacks that Schefter said may or may not move. We're not going to go over all 18. We'll go over at least the top five

that we think are big movers and shakers. And we'll go over our hits and misses from the preseason. We had a lot of preseason wagers. We told you guys we liked some over-unders and some props. And we'll get to some mail-back questions. So we're going to do a little differently on this Thursday than we have have in the past but don't worry we'll be back next we've got some great interviews on monday we're gonna interview monday two interviews monday and then matt and i will talk about all our wages we like for the super bowl we'll do that next thursday as

usual then we'll have a great game then we'll recap it and then boom we're off in the off season matt how you doing buddy i'm doing good man it's. I can't believe that we don't have games to deal with this week. It's a little bit strange. There was part of me that was sort of looking forward to like a weekend off, but the idea of soon like dozens of consecutive weekends off from football is terrifying. It's going to be a rough winter, but it's fun for now. What's interesting about that is like, you don't have kids. So like, what do you do on a weekend with no football?

I mean, sleep, basically whatever I want, Jeff, you know, leisure activities into normal. I mean, actually what's funny. It's like nothing. None of us are doing anything. So, you know, I'll enjoy my, my childless days while I can, I guess. Yeah. That's pretty funny. Cause yeah, I think back to times before I had kids like, what do we do on the weekends? I mean, it's just obviously like if there's not a pandemic and you're like,

I don't know, we just like went to bed, bath and be on same as well. Yeah, that's right. I don't know if we'll have enough time. Yeah. So it's basically what we used to do. All right. You want to start with where we were right and wrong, or you want to start with quarterbacks? I guess we could just do some quick hits on these preseason ones. Our trusty producer, Nick, threw some in the rundown that some of yours, I think. Or no, there were some of mine, too, that we liked.

Any sort of notable things that you want to take credit for for our preseason over-unders that have cashed? Well, the Steelers was definitely the one that I was the hottest on, which a lot of people I don't think were as hot as me. Now, obviously, I thought they had a chance to win the Super Bowl, not lose to the Browns in the playoffs. But I was right about them. I told you guys, look, they were 8-8 last year, I guess two years ago now,

with Mason Rudolph and Doug Hodgins. Big Ben comes back. The defense is really good. The Steelers, I told you, I had a Super Bowl future on them. They were my number one hit this year. I think they're not even close to any team that I hit better on. We'll talk about Ben in a little bit and what they do with the quarterback situation. But I feel really good about the Steelers.

I was obviously on the right side there. That's good. My best call, I think, was Tampa over 9.5. I got to say, Jeff, like I think I need to stop betting games because I'm only good at betting futures. Like I had Seattle over nine. I had the Chargers under seven and a half.

I had the Broncos under seven and a half. Those were good calls. I had Tennessee over eight and a half. Atlanta under seven and a half. Like I killed these. I wish I had bet more of them, but I was like, well, I'll be better in the season. And I sucked in the season instead as usual.

Yeah. I mean, I haven't done a lot of futures, but this year was a good year. I mean, I hit, I hit the Panthers too. I told you guys,

I didn't like the Panthers. Now that one feels a little bit lucky, but I'll take it anyways. Chiefs. I told you guys, chiefs over 11 and a half, easy money. I feel a little bit upset with the Ravens.

Like I had them over 11 and a half too. I mean, they just had that COVID run and didn't play well in the middle of the season. I feel okay about losing that bet. I mean, you're going to lose some. But I had some big swings and misses. Number one was the Rams, man. I thought the Rams were not going to be a playoff team.

And they proved me wrong fairly quickly. They were, obviously, didn't win a playoff game. But man, they, God, I look stupid with the Rams. The 49ers made me look stupid. I took them over 10.5. And that one could have gone in any number of ways, but that should have seen that one coming. I also think that the big lesson I learned this year is bet the divisions. Bet the divisional futures.

Because my biggest wins of the year were pittsburgh to win the division after like week two they were like plus two or three hundred or something like that in washington i bet them in mid-season i bet all of the nfc east teams because they were everyone except whoever the favorite was washington was like plus 650 because they were two and five but no one in that division was good like you got to take those swings um because weird stuff happens that that's a that's a fun one to remember for next year yeah that's I I um I need to the reason why I don't do futures as much and I told you I made some of these bets some I did not I told you guys in the early in the season

like what I was doing it's like I'm so impatient, some I did not. I told you guys early in the season what I was doing. It's like, I'm so impatient. Yeah. But I feel like, to your point, is that they are good values. Like, for example, this weekend, or I guess next weekend, I have a Tampa Bay plus $1,100 future to win the Super Bowl. $50 to win $550. Okay? Pretty damn good.

So, I'm basically, this weekend, playing with house money. I could bet, and I probably will, I will probably bet $500 on the Chiefs. I think the Chiefs are going to win. Yeah. So I will bet maybe $500 on the Chiefs to win 300. And if Tampa wins and I just, oh, whatever, I'm up 50 bucks or something. But if, you know, if the Chiefs win, I'm up a lot of money, right? Like I can do whatever.

I could take half of that. I can half that in the middle, right? You can take the Chiefs, you know, to win, you know, I don't know, 200 bucks, right? I can find ways to like, there is some value. And then also, if you do it right, you can then sell off in the season. You can take bets here and there to figure out how to get back to the middle. I think next year, I'm going to take a lot more, especially season props. We did two of them on our show that I know for certain.

Kyler Murray over, passing yards, which hit. And Sanko and Barkley under, which I think it even hits if he doesn't get hurt this year. Those are two ones that you brought that were great yeah yeah we had Gardner Minshew I think was a uh was an under that we liked there were a few that were there were a few that just the player props just feel like free money because if somebody just misses one game uh you hit the unders on all of those so that's that's a fun one to keep in mind too yeah and uh you know the Lions was a team that I think we decided on, hey, if there was a worst to first team,

it was going to be the Lions this year. And that did not happen. No, it did not. Could you work for a boss who was like Dan Campbell, the Lions head coach? I don't think I could work with him as a colleague. Like I, I would look at that guy and just be like,

what are you, what's your deal? My guy, like, what are we doing here? Um, his opening press conference was one of the strangest things I've ever seen in my entire life.

I, that one just feels like, you know, every year there's one hire where you're like, that's not going to be good. Like that was one of those, like from the first moment, you're just like,

I'm not sure that one's going to work. like that was one of those like from the first moment you're just like i'm not sure that one's going to work yeah that that feels like those but i'll tell you what man in 2016 now right doug peterson was the coach who wasn't going to work and that's true he won a super bowl so that's the lions though and and their quarterback situation uh obviously is changing now that matt stafford um wants. And maybe we should start there. Quarterbacks on the move. Adam Schefter thinks there'll be 18. That feels a little high. 18 new quarterbacks in new places next year, right? So I guess that's all possible, especially with the draft.

But I don't know, man. Do you want to start with Matt Stafford? Because he put his Detroit house on the market. He has said he's leaving town. His wife posted something on Instagram about leaving town. He is leaving the Detroit Lions. The question is who gets him and for how much money? Yeah. I mean, the tweet you're referencing from Adam Schefter is from a few days ago. He says there's roughly 10 quarterbacks locked into starting jobs for next year. I think if you count, I think he's counting Dak Prescott.

So when you look at that list, it's, you know, Kansas city, Arizona, Cleveland Baltimore chargers, Seahawks, Bengals, you assume green Bay, you assume Dallas and Buffalo. That leaves just an unbelievable amount of potential change out there. Stafford's a great one. And the thing about Stafford is it feels like there's a little momentum for him where Watson feels like it's going to take some time because it's going to take one of these monster deals,

but it feels like Stafford's going to be that first domino to fall. Doesn't it? Yeah. For a couple of reasons. One is that he's not going to be as pricey as the Sean Watson's going to be right. Watson's going to take, you know,

if you look at the packages teams can offer, right, three or four first-rounders in next year's first-rounder and maybe a Darnold or two. Matt Stafford probably takes a first-rounder and a second-rounder, a first-rounder, a third-rounder, a little older, a little injured. And I think when you have a new coach, a new GM like the Lions do, there's more incentive to just start over, right? Start over.

And to get rid of Stafford would be the first step of starting over. And, you know, when you look at these odds, now some of these odds that I'm going to give you guys are not actionable. Some are, you know, I'm not going to pump up which offshore site I'm using because we're not an offshore website podcast. But right now the Lions are a short favorite to keep him, which I think is a bad bet. Do not put money in the Lions here.

Colts and then 49ers are the top two. Broncos being the fourth best odds after that. So for me, the Colts and Niners make a ton of sense. The Colts have a lot of figuring out to do about what they want to do at quarterback. The Niners to me are very simple. The Niners are going after three guys, in my opinion. Stafford, Rodgers, if he's available,

which I don't think he will be, and maybe Sam Darnold. I feel like Matt Stafford is the guy the Niners should go up and get and make it happen and make their team into a Super Bowl-caliber team again. What do you think? That's really interesting. I think that the exercise with

stafford it's like two it's like two pieces of scouting it's like how close are we to being a quarterback away and also like is he the ingredient for oh we're a quarterback away right like deshaun watson clearly is like if the colts got deshaun watson which they won't because they're in the division like they're they're like probably Superbowl favorite or second favorite behind the chiefs. Right. Stafford. Like I, I understand that like it would make sense for a team like San Francisco to make that play. But do you think that really puts them over the top given,

given sort of like what they've got on? I don't know. I don't, I don't know if I see it. like what they've got on i i don't know i i don't i don't know if i see it i think they have to obviously they lose sala on defense they have to replace your d coordinator and they have some parts on defense that are kind of old in the secondary but this offense with shanahan is good right like no matter what they're gonna score points and they've scored points with nick mullins a quarterback with with jimmy garoppolo quarterback imagine matt stafford in this offense right this offense is so quarterback friendly that you might get yourself to 11 or 12 wins with a little bit of a suspect defense because you score so many points on offense and i do the niners think that look they

were competitive this year with no one at quarterback the one one year in Kyle Shanahan's tenure with the 49ers where he had a quarterback that was healthy for the entire year, he made the Super Bowl, Matt. Like, I think they can be one quarterback away. And you put Stafford in this offense, and this offense, remember, the Shanahan offense, for the most part, is run by quarterbacks who are not very good. I mean, that's a little bit.

Maybe they're average, right? And it elevates them, right? It elevates Cousins and Case Keenum and Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo. But we saw this year with Aaron Rodgers in this offense, what can happen, MVP caliber play. Matt Stafford in this offense does the same thing for them, in my opinion. He becomes MVP caliber quarterback if he stays healthy in San Francisco. That's really interesting.

I mean, to me, the obvious one is the Colts, who I think are the favorite in these kind of sketchy offshore books that we've been looking at. Because the Colts, I feel like, have made the case that, hey, we are a quarterback away. And Rivers was, I mean, I'd give Rivers, what, like a C plus for the year. And if you upgraded, that's like an A minus. They could potentially have something really substantial to work with there. The interesting domino with the Niners is if they do trade for Stafford, then what could happen to Garoppolo? And this is when things start to get nuts, and I kind of feel like you probably aren't a huge fantasy football player, but if you've ever been in a fantasy auction, there's always that guy that gets out there first. Like in my league this year, it was Julio Jones.

He was like the first guy on the board and no one really knew how to value him. So he went for like 30 bucks and then every other receiver went for like 50. And I think that that could happen where somebody gets Stafford and it's like, huh, just a first rounder. Like that kind of makes sense.

And then you look up and Mitch Trubisky is getting like a $200 million contract because every team needs a quarterback in a couple of months. Like I kind of feel like, I don't know, this could just really start to get crazy. It could if, to your point, teams aren't able to snag up the guys that they want. The Colts are really interesting because they can make a play for a couple different players. They can make a play for Carson Wentz. I'll just end this now. I think Carson Wentz stays an eagle, right?

They got rid of the coach for a reason. They brought in a guy they can control, in my opinion, a coach, and a guy that Carson Wentz wants to work with. So Carson Wentz, to me, is almost as simple as one of this all. He's staying in the field. So he's off the board for the Colts.

The Colts have now Sam Darnold, Matt Stafford. I mean, is Jameis an option in Indy as well? I don't know exactly. But let's stick with Stafford and Darnold. So I guess the question becomes is that Stafford, Darnold, I should say, is cheaper, at least for one more year, and then you have to give him a contract. Stafford's already expensive and older.

Is there going to be that much of a difference in Frank Reich's offense with Stafford or with Darnold? I think Stafford is a safer play for them. I mean, the Rivers thing made sense because he didn't make a ton of mistakes like that's why i don't think winston is a fit there because they want somebody to just sort of like carefully drive this car towards the finish line um i know that this contradicts directly what i just said but like what about mitch trubisky for the colts and he

kind of had like a pretty nice end of the season run uh He kind of has like a similar skill set to Wentz, who obviously had that success with Reich. That one to me seems like it's sneaky, makes a little bit of sense, and they wouldn't have to give up anything because he's a free agent. Yeah, I don't think they're going to do that. Somebody is going to talk themselves into Trubisky,

and the Niners are another team, I think, that could make some sense. So the idea is basically, our offensive coach is so good that we can get out of Trubisky. The Niners just did that with Jimmy G, though. I think the Niners understand they need an elite quarterback. It is hard to win the NFL in the long term with an above-average guy. You need to find an elite.

Stafford can be elite in my opinion, with his arm talent, with his ability to kind of just make plays and being on a good team for once. Trubisky dude does not feel at all like a guy that I put any dollars into to be my starting quarterback. Yeah, it's going to,

he's going to be the most interesting one this season. He's a, he's an unrestricted free agent. There are, there is going to be a huge amount of demand for like a capable starting quarterback um you know i could see a lot of teams like what about new england could new england talk themselves into mitch trubisky like like there are so many teams washington like who's gonna do it someone's going to um but to tie up to tie up the staffer conversation what's your prediction for where he ends up going?

I think he goes to... I would say he goes to the Colts. Okay. Yeah, I'm also going to say the Colts. That one just makes the most sense to me. Agreed. Do you want to move to Aaron Rodgers? Yeah, let's do Aaron Rodgers. Why not?

So start us off. I mean, I have a pretty strong feeling about this. Yeah, he's not going anywhere. That's my feeling. You know, you don't trade away MVP Hall of Fame quarterbacks that just had their best season of their career because he's a little salty after a game. Matt LaFleur obviously said, hey, we want him back.

He's our quarterback. Well, duh duh because he just he's led matt lafleur to like 26 wins in three years or last last two years actually right they've won i think 27 games the last two years something like that some crazy 28 games um yeah of course he's gonna be back there next year i don't know if they changed the philosophies on defense to help them win i don't know what they do, but of course, Rogers is back. What kind of silliness is this? I think this is crazy.

Of course, he's coming back. This isn't the NBA where, you know, a player just says, I'm not happy. And then a week later, he's traded to the Nets. Like that's not happening here. And the Packers are so close. Like last year, they got to the NFC championship and everyone thought they were fraud.

This year, they should have won that game last week. I agree. the Packers are so close. Like last year they got to the NFC championship and everyone thought they were fraud this year. They should have won that game last week. I agree. They're like, they're, they're a drop from Devante Adams in the red zone away from being in the super bowl. And none of us even thinking about this. What I do think is potentially interesting here is,

is Jordan love a trade piece? Like what could happen there? Like some, what if some team sort of looked at him last year and really liked him, and now all of a sudden they want to pump up Rodgers' ego? There's not enough quarterbacks to go around in this league at the moment. Like, could they trade Jordan Love for, like, a second rounder? One thing to consider in all of this is that there are five possible first round draft picks a quarterback in this draft.

So even with all these veterans, a team like the Packers, I guess they draft kind of late, though, could just be like, you know what? We're going to trade Aaron Rodgers for first rounder. We're going to trade Jordan Love and just go get ourselves Zachson or get ourselves cal trask or get ourselves trey lance they they don't have to trade for a quarterback they don't have to use jordan love there's no there's when when josh rosen was traded and and kyler murray was drafted and even now if two gets traded for deshaun watson let's say this whole like keeping quarterback to develop is is over right like if you don't think he's your guy boom he's gone um so yes the Packers could get rid of Rogers get rid of Love and draft someone the first round sure but that just feels way too complicated for an organization that doesn't feel like they have drama very often yeah I just can't imagine them going in that direction I there was

this report last year when we did our mock drafts uh last year there was this circle of reporting that new england really liked jordan love uh that they were scouting him that they were interested in him and then the packers kind of came out of nowhere and picked him um i think that could be potentially pretty interesting like there is going to be some move that makes no sense like you know what if tua gets traded if if miami gets to sean watson like there's just going to be some wacky movement this year and jordan love i mean it's the hard thing about love it's sort of the same problem with rogers it's like what value are you getting right like if green bay did decide hey we're going to trade aaron rogers for some dumb reason like

what could you possibly get back for an mvp who's also 37 38 that already wants a new contract there's, there's not going to be like a good return for either side. So, and love sort of the same problem. He's just an unknown quantity, but I could see that potentially happening. Like, why not? Like that could be chaotic and crazy. It'd be fun. To me, it feels like the domino to make all of this happen is just Sean Watson. Right. Right. roger's not

going anywhere matt stafford already wants to leave right so he's gone we'll get to carson wentz in a second oh i'm about carson wentz now he ain't going nowhere no chance like he's not going anywhere so it's the contract yeah it's the contract and also it's very simple they chose him over doug peterson it's not simple. They chose him over Doug Peterson. It's not that difficult, right? They had to choose. We talk about this all the time. They had to choose between Doug Peterson or Wentz,

and they chose Wentz. It's okay. They chose him. So, all right. So Sean Watts, let's talk about him. So obviously he wants out for multiple reasons. We talked about them all, but basically he wasn't treated in a manner that he felt they respected him, right? He was supposed to be helping the coaching search. And again, I go back to this, Matt, if we are in business, but let's say that there's a decision to be made on this podcast,

right? And you're the business side of it. And you say to me, hey, I'm going to keep you in the loop. Okay. I'm going to keep you involved., you and Gabe might say, hey, you know what? We're not really going to make a decision based on what Schwartz says. We're going to let him know that we think he does it, right? Same as like you married, I'm married. The wedding planning, right? The wedding planning, I didn't do shit. We chose everything my wife wanted to choose.

But I just kind of like, you know, I just like kind of like, you i just like kind of like you know like i just you know i just like kind of kept her involved i mean i kept myself involved and she thought i did something i'm like i didn't do anything like you just kind of like you keep you kind of give your word to someone and you kind of fugazi them a little bit and you make them feel good right the texans just could have done that with watson hey why yeah to sean guess what man you know what what interview eric bn me for you well you. We'll keep you abreast of what happens. They didn't do any of that. On top of trading away,

now they got Laramie Tunsil back, but they traded away Dwayne Brown, traded away Hopkins. There's obviously some things happening with the previous owner and the comments he's made and the organization, things like that. He wants out.

No matter who the coach is, he still wants out. I think he stays. We'll get to that in a second. Wow. But let's talk about where he's going to end up. no matter who the coach is, he still wants out. I think he stays. We'll get to that in a second. Wow. But let's talk about where he's going to end up. To me, the Jets or the Dolphins make the most sense because they have the most draft picks to give up.

But here's my case against the Jets trading for Deshaun Watson. So you make this trade with the idea that you're ready to win now, in my opinion. Yep. And the Jets roster is not there right now. Yep.

And they can use all this draft capital, especially if they trade back out of two, to just get themselves seven starters. Just like, go find yourself

a good team. Yep. And then you can add the quarterback next year. You can get, you can find a way to get a quarterback at some point,

but get yourself your roster. If you trade away, I'm going to pull up what they have to try to work. It's going to take your second overall pick your 23rd, your 34th pick this year. Yep. Plus next year's two first rounders and a second round pick probably right.

Like everything you have, if you mortgage that away, can you build up your roster to win with the Sean Watson? Yep. I don't know. i this is i i hope that the jets listen to this because this is exactly right like not only was all everything you just said true but it also adds this pressure all of a sudden of like oh god like we're we've arrived like now this is gonna happen um and the jets don't need that like do exactly like take my washington football team they didn't have a quarterback this year there were no expectations they went to the playoffs and lost and we couldn't have been happier as fans that the jets need a few seasons like that where they're kind of under the radar

you know maybe they draft your left tackle out of oregon maybe they draft another receiver like just build that roster or as you said trade that pick to a quarterback desperate team and go crazy and just have a bonanza in the draft what i i think miami makes so much sense for them for deshaun watson for a lot of reasons um first of which is you could put tua in a deal potentially if you traded with the Dolphins. And that would be kind of interesting because then the Texans could potentially get that third pick and have a quarterback and get a bunch of other picks and be able to start a rebuild even faster with the quarterback

in place and not have to then just like sink their old pick at number three into another quarterback that they're not sure what they are so i think miami makes a ton of sense because and for them their roster is kind of close to being ready it feels like and this is i think you made the point for me is they're close to being ready so here's they can trade they can trade it's the third overall pick which was houston's pick yeah which was houston's pick so the 36th overall pick. Which was Houston's pick. Which was Houston's pick. So the 36th overall pick, which was Houston's pick. Yep. And the 50th pick.

So four picks in the top 50 this year, plus a first and a second round next year. And Tua. So the question becomes, do the Texans have a high regard for Tua? Because obviously you can draft a quarterback at three, but then you don't really need Tua, right? So Tua becomes a big part of this. And the Dolphins don't want to keep Tua either. He has to kind of be part of this deal. So if they feel like he's our guy,

then I think Houston makes this deal. I think this is the deal that they should make is with the Dolphins. The reason why I don't think they make this deal, Matt, is for a couple reasons. One, and let's use James Harden's example. The NBA is a players league, right? Players run the league.

James Harden said, I want out of Houston. So guess what he does? He sabotages himself, right? He may or may not be overweight. I can't figure that out yet. I think he was just wearing something underneath his shirt to make it look like he was fatter because he showed up in Brooklyn and was skinny again.

Like a Big Mama's House sort of scenario? Yes, a Big Mama's house. Or, you know what I thought it was? Sometimes guys were like heat packs under their back to warm up their low back as they warm up. I thought maybe he, because it was always in his jumpsuit. It was never like with his jersey on when he looked fat,

right? So I don't know what it was, but most of Brooklyn, he's skinny again. James Harden's like throwing errant passes, not trying very hard, sabotaging his teammates. Deshaun Watson would never do that when he played. That's right. And that's the difference in the NFL.

If Watson showed up to play next season under protest, he would go out every day and give it his best. And he'd go out every day trying to win the football game and go out trying to win it for his teammates, for his team. And so if they keep him. You know you're going to get that from Deshaun Watson. Is he going to be happy? Probably not.

But he'll show up eventually because guess what? If he doesn't show up, he doesn't get paid. It doesn't make sense to just sit out a season. I mean, I agree with all of that. And Deshaun Watson, I've met him briefly in my work. Super impressive, nice dude. All accounts say the same thing. The only thing is for Houston is they had that this year and they sucked.

So for them, I would rather take this Miami deal. And that's, I think, sort of underrated. Like you never want to trade a 25-year-old franchise quarterback, but their team is a mess and they're not a few things away from being relevant they're a roster away from being relevant and they need some time to rebuild this thing i think that i think they could sort of turn it around with watson they still don't have a coach like we kind of forget that i mean they've talked about josh mccown or whatever but they could still hire eric b enemy like that could that could happen and then potentially it seems like that's

the guy watson would want so they could in theory turn it around from there but i don't know if i'm them and i'm getting you know two plus four first round picks you know plus the naming rights to the dolphin stadium or whatever the hell else i would do it i mean i just think that it's such a it's such a profound it's such a fast way to rebuild your team and they'll be better off. Like, it'll be a painful couple of years, but they'll get their draft picks back. Like, they have nothing, they have no way to improve this offseason

because they don't have any other picks. So they have, I think they have to move him, which is crazy. And the Dolphins give them the best option. Look, if the Dolphins, 10 and 6 this past season, basically on the defense and special teams alone and coaching, because offensively they were a wreck. But guess what?

They have, I think, three rookie offensive linemen. They had a bunch of injuries and skilled position players. And Deshaun Watson immediately makes them an AFC contender, in my opinion. Immediately. And I think the Dolphins should be the first team and the only team that should call the Houston Texans every single day.

Yeah. And also, like, the positions where they're kind of weak are the positions you could do well in free agency. They could sign Aaron Jones. They could sign Alan Robinson. Like all of a sudden that team is like a super is juiced for the super bowl, but you know,

a wide receiver, you see that in free agency all the time. They switch teams and it works out. It's, you know, it's not like a big mystery. So yeah, I think,

I think Miami should absolutely do this and it would be good for houston too and that's my prediction i think that's what happens i think i think that's what happens too i think it happens near the draft though i think this stuff doesn't no need to do it now yep um you know but but it might happen but i think that if you do before free agency you kind of understand where you you need so it could happen right before free agency too but i think this is more of like a kind of a draft-ish day trade. Yeah. I'm with you.

Like draft day. Vontae Mack no matter what. Yeah, exactly. Boom. And there it is. Wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. That's cool. But with my wireless, I get unlimited for just $30.

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Taxes and fees extra. Compares pricing of top carriers. Xfinity internet required. Reduced speeds after 20 gigabits of usage per line. Most reliable based on root metrics. UL's report. Results vary. Non-endorsement. What other quarterbacks in the movement interest you? I would like to talk about, let's see. Let's, we can do some quick hits here. Maybe we can go through some teams.

Like, I'm curious, like what you think, I'm curious what you think Washington does. Let's start there with my own favorite team. Alex Smith still wants to play, which... I don't really... God, Alex, I love you, buddy, but it's done, man. Yeah. I agree.

It's done. I'm curious here because everyone's linking them to Stafford because they just hired the Lions GM, the old lions gm martin mayhew um i just don't think that makes any sense for washington for the reasons i said about um about watson where if you start to if you if you go all in and trade a first round pick and something else for stafford um the clock the clock's on and all of a sudden it's like oh washington's going for it like

i think that they would they would uh potentially do better for like a smaller package do like what carolina did with bridgewater um and let this play out for another year or two while you sort of turn over the roster um so i don't think they're in play for either of the two big guys uh i i think washington i think part of the draft right i mean maybe they're uh pick up a jamis winston or trubisky type of thing i think that's what happens i think winston's gonna end up there or like even like a fitzpatrick maybe yeah fitzpatrick's a fun one i mean i i kind of feel like fitzpatrick might end up in new England. I was going to ask you about the Patriots. What do they do? I have no feel for the Patriots.

The Patriots are so mysterious to me. I don't know what they do. I mean, this to me is the most obvious move they could possibly make. And that is trade back for Jimmy Garoppolo. It just makes too much sense. It's Belichick's guy. Like, he's watching Tom Brady go to the Super Bowl. San Francisco wants to move on from him, especially if they get Stafford.

Like, do the exact same Stafford. Do the exact same trade back. Trade a second round pick for him. It's done. Yeah. I think I agree with you. People have been bashing Bill Belichick this week because Tom Brady made the playoffs, made the Super Bowl. They went 7-9 with that that dumpster five a roster like belichick can still coach now you can you can maybe say hey man like you are the architect of this defense i mean this team this roster it's not very good fair enough but duke is still coach like come on guys yep let's not be crazy with this i agree um and they had all those opt-outs and gilmore went down like they could have a few things changed they could have been a playoff team which is kind of crazy to say um i agree so you know fitzpatrick seems

kind of silly for them but if they just need a guy who can move the chains and they you know get a wide receiver finally like that actually i could see them having a much better year um yeah one i'm yeah i'm any other any other quarterbacks that uh spark your attention your mind Trubisky um we sort of hit him I'm curious I mean Trubisky and Darnold to me are kind of the same thing where it's like they somebody's going to talk themselves into them but I'm curious if you have a feel for I guess either of those guys um dude Trubisky, I don't know what to do with him. Last year, I feel like, um, you know, I guess the end of this year, I should say he played some really bad teams and kind of showed his issues in an actual game.

They had to win. Yeah. I just don't know how anyone trusts them to be their starter i agree but someone's going to um i could also so drabisky this is going to sound stupid but i kind of feel like he has like las vegas raider written all over him instead of derrick carr so the raiders are in this weird spot where I have a list of like I sort of tiered these out um this is a tier of teams that I call teams stuck with who they have but they would like an upgrade okay so the Giants the Eagles the Vikings the Broncos the Niners the

Rams yeah the Falcons the Panthers and the raiders like any one of them would like to upgrade their quarterback this season and i feel like one of them is going to do something weird like could the giants end up signing like fitzpatrick like no they're not but like somebody's going to do something strange and car car's contract is kind of interesting because after this season i think it's this season, I wrote this down somewhere, he's got an out. So they could get, he has two years left on his deal. It's his age 31 season.

They could get out of it after this season. Like I could see Gruden being like, I could fix Trubisky. Like he's the raw athlete. Like I've always wanted, like I could see that team doing something strange. Yeah. I mean, Gruden and Carr never have seemed to kind of get along.

So it wouldn't make a lot of sense for this to happen, but I mean, they could just roll with Mario to know, or is that, you don't think that that's a, maybe isn't he a free agent too? No, I think he's on a two year deal.

Okay. Well then, yeah, that, that does make some sense. Yeah. I don't know know i just feel like that team's going to do something strange and the the other big domino here i think is chicago

um speaking of like i have no clue what that team does like are they a darn old team are they a winston team are they a fitzpatrick team even like could they be a team that just says like hey our defense is pretty good oh man see there's they're they're kind of like in the new england boat where i don't really know what the best answer is for them yeah it's the same with the saints they might and they they might well they're gonna keep tasting hill um they might need to like there's a couple teams i feel like need to be bold right now right the colts the dolphins with deshaun watson go get those guys now right i think other teams can just wait it out and kind of see what the market bears for them yep and the draft is going to be super interesting again another reason for for the texans to do this deal with miami like some team

is going to talk themselves into jumping up to number three and if the texans to do this deal with miami like some team is going to talk themselves into jumping up to number three and if the texans already have two uh they could move down and take that pick from the bears or washington or new england or whoever that talks themselves into that number three quarterback um because i think the draft's gonna be nuts there are gonna be teams that move up wild dude it's gonna be be crazy um yeah this offseason is going to be wild i mean it's going to be a little different because i don't think we have a regular offseason like there's no combine obviously um you know pro days may or may not happen but with the vaccines we're like we're going to get a regular draft i think i hope uh obviously we'll

have a regular camp but we'll get back to normal, in my opinion, fairly soon in the fall. It might not be right now, but the quarterbacks are definitely a place where it's going to be wild this offseason. We can look forward to that with no football, and we can look forward to quarterback carousel and news breaking. All right, Matt, let's end with some mailback.

I asked you guys for some questions, and I know we have some. Yeah, I mean, we kind of hit on this first one. This is from, this is from at chiefly bacon great name uh is there an afc team other than the chiefs that could be the super bowl favorite for the 2021 season and if so what moves would they have to make to get there dolphins i think we kind of hit miami but yeah buffalo um man i didn't like what mcdermott said after the game you know he didn't he wanted to get a morale boost by kicking the field goal to end the first half.

Well, scoring a touchdown would have been a good morale boost, too. They want to run the ball more next year. I don't know, man. I feel like, okay, so this game was interesting because Josh Allen has been good against pressure all season. But this game, the Chiefs just relentlessly pressured him. And the same game plan they had in the first game the bills had no answer this feels like a blueprint now going forward just blitz josh allen's throwing hand the right side from this right side until he proves you otherwise that's all the chiefs did all game and he had no answer for it that's interesting i

to go back to mr bacon's question here i think, I think Pittsburgh is a really intriguing team this offseason. They looked unbelievable for 11 weeks and then fell apart, and part of that's the quarterback. What if they trade for somebody strange? What if they trade for Derek Carr? What happens with Ben Roethlisberger? Could he just retire out of nowhere? They seem like they're pretty close.

I think they hope Ben leaves. I mean, a Sam Darnold trade would be good too for them, I feel like. Yeah, which, I mean, it's really interesting. Like Winston, could he be a guy that, you know, I don't know. Like that, I could see Winston in a Steelers jersey. Oh, for sure. Driving Mike Tomlin crazy. Like I could see that.

How about your boy, your boy Haskins? Yeah, well, don't hold your breath there on Haskins. But I think Pittsburgh is a very, they're ready. Like, they had some tough injuries. I think if, you know, Bud Dupree didn't go out, they might have been a tougher out in the playoffs. So, yeah. I agree.

Yeah. I mean, they have to figure out offensively. They have the talent there. They're just so discombobulated. They've got to fix their offensive line, too. Yeah, they do. And they're running games. I don't know, they have to figure out offensive. They have the talent there. They're just so discombobulated. They got to fix their offensive line too. Yeah, they do. And they're running game. I don't know what they've got to do there. Yeah. So I guess the next, the next question,

maybe, maybe our last one here, since we're bumping up on 40 minutes, Miles, your Gatiss. I'm I don't know, buddies. I'm sorry. M your Gatiss. What should the Lions price asking? What should the Lions asking price be for Stafford? What do you think he ends up going for? I would say probably, I'm so bad at the draft capital thing, man.

I leave that to Bill Barnwell. That's his job to go over those articles. I think they should get a first for him at the minimum, right? And then I think from there, it just depends on what more they want to get out of it. But a first rounder feels appropriate. I think they're going to get two. I think they're going to get two. I think they're going to get either a first, two firsts,

or a first and a second, or two seconds. The demand is just too high. And a team like the Colts, they can absolutely look at themselves in the mirror and say, cool, we're giving up two firsts so that we can beat out San Francisco or Washington or whoever. I think he's going to go for a lot. How many first-rounders? Two? I'm saying two. So think he's going to go for a lot. How many first rounders?

Like two? I'm saying two. So one this year, one next year. Yep. Or one team if they somehow have two. I don't think it would be Miami or something. Interesting. I could see it.

There's too much demand and not enough supply. I agree. The last question was about my brother and I starting a podcast. We've been working on this for quite a few years now so just stay tuned everyone we've matt and i but we've talked about this how many years we talked about this now two years since we've known each other so we'll see if mitch is in on it when he eventually retires i do not know when that is i don't know if he's playing this week stop asking me i don't know and i wouldn't tell you anyway let's hope so also wouldn't tell you anyways um so uh yeah

hope hope everyone is uh is uh is doing well with their game stop stock so uh seems to be or amc or uh blackberry whatever you're doing out there good luck to you as i'm watching as we're recording this and the stock prices continue to go up up but i don't even i know nothing about this matt my neighbor right down literally right down there, he's an investor. He's all day even texting me. Still have no idea what's happening. Good luck. Good luck to everyone out there. Enjoy your gambling on

the stock market, I guess. I don't know. Who knows? All right, guys. We'll be back next week. Guys, we have a we're going to have an interview with a Super Bowl champion on Monday. We're going to have a second interview. Two interviews Monday. One, and then we're going to have an interview with a Super Bowl champion on Monday. Woo-hoo! We're going to have a second interview. Two interviews Monday. One, and then we're going to have an interview with Stephen Che, I believe,

from Barstool. Huge Bucs fan. We don't talk about the Bucs. I talk about the Chiefs. I want to get Bucs fan perspective on this entire season. He is great. Good excellent to those guys as well. So those will be Monday.

And have a great weekend, everyone. Take care.