Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - South Divisions Team Totals and Player Props

Episode Date: August 18, 2022

Geoff and Matt are back, and this week they're looking at win totals and preseason player props for the NFC and AFC South divisions. There's a surprising amount of value to be found in the AFC South, due to the impending emergence of another superstar QB and the collapse of last year's number 1 seed. The NFC South, on the other hand... at least Panthers fans will be happy. Be sure to follow the podcast to get notified when new episodes drop each week, and leave a comment or tweet @geoffschwartz to let him know what you think!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday august 18th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz a smart new power by the varsity podcast network we are back for another division preview hope you guys enjoyed our preview of the afc and the nfc east a lot of laughs along the way hopefully we're going to make you some money um i had a good time out with that one we got kind of our our coals in the fire as far as the nfl i would also like to thank by the way the baltimore ravens for winning and covering in the preseason again 21 straight wins in the preseason 18 of those covers were already making money matt and season hasn't even started yet it's unbelievable it's like the strangest think of all the things that have to go right for that

to be possible like how many backup quarterbacks have to not it's very simple you want to know why yeah they have an offense you do not prepare for in the preseason so in the preseason there are some games you treat more like game plan games i think it's game two now it used to be game three it was universally game three and now it's game two-ish but like the titans played them the other night right? The Titans spent maybe walk through the day before and the day of the game. Like here's what they might do in offense guys. Hope you're ready for it. No one's preparing for that. And so that's why you have Tyler Huntley going 16 of 18. You have Anthony Brown, who was at Oregon,

who looked great because no one's preparing for that defense. Even on the game plan week, like game two or game three, you might spend some time doing it. But if you're not playing that team in the first eight weeks of the season, why would you practice that offense at all? You're not going to see it anywhere else. I've heard a lot of people talk about this, and no one has made that point that I've heard.

That's really interesting because you're right. They do run a totally different thing. You would think at some point the backup kicker, it's like i'm dialed into whether tucker's playing or not like maybe like that okay so they're never gonna miss a field goal then like four field goals in the first game it's like not like the fourth string running back isn't gonna fumble like in a close game like the game was close it? I mean, look, you think that those things, you know, might happen. They certainly can happen, Matt. But, like, I think part of it is they're also just coached by a really disciplined coach.

So they don't make mistakes on top of mistakes. So even if they do have a fumble, they're not making a special teams mistake. They're not compounding issues. And so that's why, to me, they're a great preseason bet. And, again, they've won 21 straight preseason games, and they've covered 18 of those. But we're not here to talk about the Ravens. But if you would like to bet on them the rest of the preseason, be my guest.

We're here to talk about the AFC and NFC South. We're here to spend $1,000 on each division, plus we still have $2,000 of rollover money that we did not spend on the first episode. So we really have up to $4,000 today to spend. We probably won't spend more than $2,500 of it. But we're going to do this exercise. We're going to go through each team in the South.

We're going to go through their win totals, the props we like. We'll talk about these teams. Remember, last year, guys, we started with 10 grand. We ended with almost $15,000. We made some money last year. It's a fun project for us to do. Hope you guys enjoy it. And Matt, who, we started with 10 grand. We ended with almost $15,000. We made some money last year. It's a fun project for us to do. Hope you guys enjoy it. And Matt, who are we starting with?

Let's start with, why don't we do the AFC first? Since the NFC's got a little more buzz. Why don't we start with, we go in order of the most projected wins. So Indy is first, Jeff. Their win total is 10 minus 190 to make the playoffs. What do you think? So I really like the Colts in this spot to win the division. Like the division champ is minus 135.

You take last year's team that was really good, and now you had a better quarterback, right? Matt Ryan, guys, is not terrible. He's not a lead anymore. He's not winning you an MVP. He's also not Carson Wentz. And last season on a bad football team, Matt Ryan played on a bad Falcons team. Threw for 3,900 yards. The year before that,

on a Falcons team that was 4-12, he threw for 4,500 yards. The year before that, 4,500 yards. The year before that, nearly 5,000 yards. On losing teams, seven wins, seven wins, four wins, seven wins. He can still play football, especially in this offense. It's a quarterback-friendly offense, Matt. You look at the defense, and you look at the downgrades of the Tennessee Titans, in my opinion, I think the Colts win the division. I think they win it by a couple of games.

And that's my favorite wager for the Colts. You can take their over, too. I mean, if you want it over 10, sure, it's minus 105. I mean, I feel you could push that, though, and they could still win the division. So either the overwin total, Matt, which, again, 11 maybe, but I think division champion to me is my favorite play for the Colts. I don't think it's a bad play. If I had to bet something of, you know, I don't like their over very much for reasons I'll get to in a second.

I do think that's a decent bet. I don't love laying the money on a future, but I think the thing with the Colts that's so weird is like a couple things happened with them last year. First of all, they led the league in time leading a game, and they finished 9-8. So like all this weird shit happened because of our guy Carson Wentz

and a few other strange things that ended up happening throughout the season. Last year, Jonathan Taylor led the league in carries and average per rush. Like when does that happen? Like you never get a guy who gets that many carries and leads the league in average per carry five and a half yards of carry. So it feels like both of those things,

something like both of them are so unusual that there's bound to be some regression mainly mainly with Taylor you would think and they had the best turnover luck last year so those are the with Carson Wentz so that's like a thing that usually gets gets you a little bit worried and I think you know while I agree Tennessee is probably worse the rest of the division is probably a little bit better I mean Jacksonville and Houston were trash last year so I do think they win this the division is probably a little bit better i mean jacksonville and houston were trash last year so i do think they win the division like they're probably the best team um but i just i don't i don't love them to like go and have some massive improvement especially because like i i have had more a one game improvement at 10 wins probably wins the

division for them though like that that's what matt ryan can give them the one extra game that wentz couldn't win against jacksonville sure that's a push and i think that like i just think that like the difference between wentz and ryan is not like the difference between winston and brady like this is it's it's like a five percent difference it is not a humongous i think it's a lotous difference. I think it's a lot more than that. I think it's a lot more than that. I think it's a decision-making improvement, for sure, but I don't think it's an ability improvement. Like, I will say, though, like, to Matt Ryan's credit,

the fact that the Falcons won seven games last year with that team is just absolutely ridiculous. So, you know, maybe he does boost them a game or two, but I'm staying away from their total i don't mind that that divisional future but with the help of our producer hank i did want to call out a player prop that i really like um so matt ryan's number one receiver has been in the top seven uh of targets the last six of the last seven years last year was a little unusual because of ridley so i love michael pitman to go over 85 and a half catches he had 88 last year and they ran the ball

more than anyone they still don't have any depth behind him as a receiver they have naheem hines was their second most targeted uh other player last year they're gonna feed pitman constantly so if he's healthy and last year he did not miss a game or a start, he should be able to go over that 85 and a half. I like it. I put it in here. I like it. Good wager. Nice one, Hank. But yeah, I don't know. I'm a little dubious of the Colts in general,

but I think that one's pretty safe. I think it's safe there. I put in the division winner. I feel strongly about we'll come back to the at the end of the divisions um and kind of do a dollar amount here for where we're going with these do we get to tennessee next or let's do it i'm good with the colts again don't just to reiterate a little bit of of what i said on the last episode that we did don't bet on on Jonathan Taylor to win the MVP, please. Okay? It's not going to happen.

Just don't do it. Just don't do it. Offensive player of the year, sure. Plus 1,000, I think. Favorite with Debo. Maybe he wins that award. It feels like that award each year can come from anywhere, right? I mean, you just, that, you know, running back gets a hot season and boom, they're offensive player of the year.

So I don't feel great really with anyone in that, in that wager, but yeah, don't bet on him to win MVP, please. I think it's, you have to assume, even if you're a fantasy player, he might be the best running back in fantasy. He is probably not going to have as good of a season as last year. Like that was an unbelievable amount of carries and it was an unbelievable success. You would defy the odds by doing better this season and I'm, year like that was an unbelievable amount of carries um and it was an unbelievable success you would defy the odds by by doing better this season and i'm i'm rooting for it but i i wouldn't

say that it's very likely all right jeff enough with the stinky matt ryan colts who i don't want to watch one snap of this godforsaken season i will watch a few snaps of the tennessee titans assuming derrick henry is. Their win total is nine. They are plus 170 to win the division, plus 100 to make the playoffs. Are you buying the Titans or are you out? No, strong fade, buddy. Strong fade. So look at their season last year.

Three-point win against the Seahawks. Three-point loss to the Jets. You ready? Three-point win against Buffalo. Three-point win against the Colts. Two-point win against the Seahawks. Three-point loss to the Jets. You ready? Three-point win against Buffalo. Three-point win against the Colts. Two-point win against the Saints. Three-point win against the Niners. Three-point win against the Texans.

Three-point loss against the Bengals. What was that, seven wins by three points or less? Yeah. And a lot of them on the road, right? Yeah. That does not happen year in and year out. They just drafted a new quarterback in Malik Willis. That signals to me they're moving off Ryan Tannehill at some point.

Now, he might not play right away, but they got worse on the offensive line. They traded A.J. Brown. They're hoping a Wookiee wide receiver can fill that role. Burks might be able to. But they went 12-5 last year lost the bangles obviously and again they won what seven games by like three points or less um um i don't know if i want to take their their win total under here minus 115 but i really i really like ryan tannehill under 3600 passing yards this year mostly because i

think he gets at some point malik willis plays and the under hits because of that. Now, Matt, he's been kind of getting there certain seasons. When he's played full season, like last year, full season, 3,700 yards. The year before that, he played 16 games, 3,800 yards. He was good. And the year before that, he played 10 games. I mean, he's played in Tennessee. He's played one season of a full 17 games.

I think in 2020 they had that bye possibly. But I just think they're not in a good spot right now. I would look for no playoffs at minus 120 or Tannehill under his passing yards. Those are all solid points. I'm into the miss the playoffs, even though it's tough to lay money on that. But just a few things about the Titans just to sort of pile on here a little bit. You know, Derrick Henry off the injury. I don't know if there's ever, certainly in modern NFL,

like in the last maybe, I don't know, decade plus, I can't recall a running back more directly correlated to whether a team is good than Derrick Henry. And just coming off of a serious injury that, you know, you just have to be concerned whether you believe in him or not. Like if he's 85% of what we're used to, like, is that good enough? I don't know. They did make some upgrades, but they are replacing four of their top five receivers from last year, including Austin Hooper, the tight end.

They went five and one in the division last year, including Austin Hooper, the tight end. They went five and one in the division last year. And I think you could argue that every other team got better. If you want to say that Ryan is an upgrade over Wentz. They also just, they have a tough schedule. They play out of the division. They play the AFC West, the Bengals, Bills, and Packers. I think if this were coached by pretty much anybody else that everyone would be on this under, but I think that everyone's just gotten burned betting against the Titans so many times that they're reluctant to.

And I get it. Mike Rabel has done an amazing job. So I I'm probably staying away on their total. I would be into them missing the playoffs more because of the strength of the rest of the conference and the difficulty of that schedule. Two fun things to close out for the titans the first this is something that we gotta remember later in this season when we're betting week to week and we're in the fog of war mike rabel is eight no in games where his team has extra rest there's three of those after week

seven let's just remember that if they're playing off of a Thursday, then we should take them. Coming off the bye, we should probably take them. And the other thing is, do you know who has the largest cap hit in the league this year? Ryan Tannehill. Largest cap hit in the league. It's like $38 million or something like that. So they are not incentivized to make this work with him. So I agree that that's a good reason to take the under malik willis like who knows he just might not be ready but if tannahill even misses

like you know the last game of the season or something if they decide to just try it out malik willis the way that the chiefs did the homes like it's very possible shall we move down to uh to jacksonville here so man this these two divisions today man like this this sucks I hate previewing both of these divisions I feel like I'm down on every single one of these teams uh Jacksonville a lot of people are on them this year a lot of people like them their win total is six and a half um the over though is plus 110 so maybe it went up there plus 800 to win the division and plus 450 to make the playoffs. Are you a believer in the Doug Peterson renaissance for the Jacksonville Jaguars? Look, Matt, three months ago, I would have been all over Jacksonville's over.

But it's now too trendy, right? Like this industry, and I get it. Everyone's doing a gambling podcast now. They're trying to find these edges and these teams to bet. Jacksonville's just too trendy for me. And the reason why I'm high on them and I think everyone else is, is I think Doug Peterson's a really good coach. Look what he did in Philadelphia.

He got cards and wants to play his best season of his career. He got Nick Foles, although for 500 yards against the Patriots in the Super Bowl. He's a really good coach. And the team has some talent. They're decent on the offensive line.

They have running backs. They have wide receivers. They have players they've drafted on defense that are good. Trevon Walker, Devin Lloyd, they're picking up pieces here and there for their secondary, for the linebackers' positions. They have all the pieces I think you'd be really excited about, but they're just too trendy for me in this spot.

And they're not winning the division. I told you I laid minus 400 on the Lions' not make the playoffs last year. This is minus 650. That feels a little bit too weird. By the way, I think that people caught on. I got this from a sharp. It was like, dude, bet all these minus 400, no playoff wagers. I think people caught on to this because there's no low ones this year.

Like, there's no, it's either like this, minus 650, minus 700, minus 1,000. But I think the play for me with Jacksonville is Trevor Lawrence over 4,000 yards. Wow. Might seem like a lot of yards, but I really think he's going to have a great season, and that puts him in the top 10 in passing this year, and maybe it's a little bit too rich in year two to feel that way about him, but I think he has a huge season, and the reason why is, I mean, look, he had 3,600 yards last season and only completed 60% of his passes.

That's pretty remarkable. I actually think I agree with everything you just said, with the exception of them having any good wide receivers. So I'm just not a buyer. And I think to add to this, I think the expectation is there's going to be another Bengals this year, right? Like everyone's like, we just think like, oh, well, that's what happens. It's like a bad team suddenly becomes a great team.

That's not going to happen. It's like never going to happen again. Like it was one of the most surprising Super Bowl runs ever. And it's not going to be this team. But most years we have that worst to first team. And like this feels like the best candidates for that. If you're trying to just looking around the NFL. But I don't think it's gonna

happen i mean i guess playoffs at plus 450 is not the worst wager but i feel like if that happens trevor lawrence is thrown for 4 000 yards yeah so i'll another hat tip to our producer hank um for this one so if trevor lawrence had a ton of interceptions last year. It seems a little bit unlikely that he'll do that again. So I think the way to play a successful season for him might be under 14 and a half interceptions. All but one season in Doug Peterson's coaching career as both an offensive coordinator and head coach. His season he got fired was the one outlier, but his teams have ranked in the top half in terms of interceptions thrown uh so you know some of those were alex smith with andy reed so take that with a grain of salt but it's unlikely he's going to go over 15 interceptions uh again the last quarterback to

do that ironically was jaguars quarterback blake bordles so it's i think it's pretty unlikely that he does that and this sort of accounts for an injury too like if he misses a few games and will definitely go under um so i think that might be the way to play a good season for him he had 17 last year so soon that comes down a little bit right yeah um i'm good playing that i mean do you play that also do you play his over 23 and a half touchdowns too or that that's a little bit too much you think i think i mean it's up to you i think it makes sense maybe both honestly because i think it makes sense to like taking an under that also indicates success means that he could miss games and they would be fine um yeah which is what we talked about yesterday about the importance of taking unders and you know in that spot um all

right the last one for jacksonville that i like is devin lloyd for defensive rookie of the year huh linebacker out of utah plus 1000 um interesting he's a player who is he's michael parsons light he rushes the passer he can play in coverage play on the ball off the ball kind of swiss army knife not as good as twitchy as Parsons, so it's unfair to say. I'm just kind of using the example of a linebacker that can kind of do both. And you look at kind of in the NFL history of defense rookie of the year, they're either defensive ends or typically linebackers, right? And the linebackers tend to be guys that are either high tacklers,

which is like Darius Leonard had like 150 his first year, or Michael Parsons. Otherwise, they're defensive ends. I just don't see Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeau, or Trevon Walker being those guys this year to win the award. And Lloyd is a tackling machine. He's going to rush the passer. He'll be all over the place at plus 1,000. I'm good with putting $50, $100 on this wager.

Sure. Let's do it. I like a little – we've got to throw some darts, and that's a good one. I've got a good dart on our next team. So I'm in on that one there. Okay. So let's go to our Texans dart, Dan, because I think we're done with Jackson. We are.

I have nothing for Houston. I'm so excited to hear your thoughts. It's funny because I actually did a decent amount of research on Houston. Their total is four and a half. did a decent amount of research on Houston. Their total is four and a half. They're even willing to go over that by the way. Plus $3,000 to the division, plus $1,600 to make the playoffs. I just want to compare with you. Derek Carr's numbers, his first

year, and Davis Mills' numbers, his first year. Derek Carr, his first year, he was 3-13. He completed 58% of his passes. That was the year, I think actually Dennis Allen, who we're going to get to in a second, was his head coach that year. So he really struggled and he was a later round pick, if you remember, and no one was really buying him last year davis mills completed more passes had a 67 percent complete 67 percent of his completion percentage excuse me he had 16 touchdowns he was better in every single counting stat um and i think that he's like a decent comp like derrick carr is not

the mvp of the nfl but he's he's competent and i think that that's the ceiling for davis mills like he is a competent quarterback i think like his all of the advanced stats on him were like pretty decent um and and also last year he had a absolutely terrible offensive line and a head coach who will probably never be a head coach at any level ever again. Lovie Smith, we all kind of joked when he got hired, but he has a better career-winning percentage than Doug Peterson and Kyle Shanahan in more games. He is a competent coach, and I think that people are just kind of sleeping

on this team because there's nobody really exciting on it. And I think that four- a half wins for to go over that for even money is a really smart bet like i think that they can go five and twelve and when you look at the team like they they oddly like have they're like kind of a veteran team like brandon cooks professional wide receiver like laramie tunsell professional left tackle um they have some intriguing young players like Nico Collins. Everyone's raving about him. And one other way to play this, and I'm not sure which book this is,

but it's a really interesting angle. So there is a book that, you know, we're not going to mention books here anyway. Will any Houston player go over a thousand rushing yards is plus 700 now that the texans have like six backs but what about this damian pierce kid out of florida who is a late round pick um who's the rest of the backs on the team are like rex burkhead some other you know sort of scrap heap guys. Damian Pierce could win that job and easily get over 1,000 yards. For plus 700, I feel like Marlon Mack is the current contender

for leading back in that backfield. But he's coming off an Achilles injury. So I feel like that's a pretty tasty number. I'm down to throw 50 bucks on that one, right? I mean, that'd be fun. Why not? And I mean, the other way, if you don't love that, but you love the long odds, Pierce for offensive rookie of the year is plus 1,800, which is an insane. No, we're not doing that.

He's not going to like lead it. He's probably not going to like dominate. But I just think that this team. No, we're not doing that. I think this team is just totally flying under the radar. I feel like they could be this year's Falcons. Like, fine. No one likes to watch them. But at the end of the year, you're like, could be this year's Falcons. Like, fine. No one likes to watch them.

But at the end of the year, you're like, huh, they went 7-10. Like, that's kind of interesting. I have already wagered on them week one, by the way. Like, plus 7.5 at home against the Colts, I think it is. Huh. Yeah. Like, they're going to show up. They're one of those teams, I think, that's going to do that all year.

They'll be feisty. Yeah. I love the win total. And, you know, if we want to put a couple extra shekels on any Houston running back over 1,000 yards for plus 700, I'm in for that too. So we have, Matt, we have a good amount of wagers for this division. So we have Colts division win at minus 135. We have Pittman over 85.5 receptions.

Tynes missed the playoffs. Ryan Tannehill under 3,600 passing yards. Devin Lloyd, defensive rookie of the year. Lawrence under 14 and a half interceptions. Texans over 4 and a half wins in any Houston running back over

1,000 yards. I like all those. I think we just kind of I can't believe we might use extra money in the AFC South. 1,000 yards. I like all those. Yeah, me too. I think we just kind of... I can't believe we might use extra money in the AFC South. So do you want to put like 50 on any Houston running back over and then put 50 on Devin Lloyd? Yeah, that makes sense. Okay.

I mean, we would win so much money on either of those that the rest of the sins of the rest of our bets could be covered. So I'm very into that. So we have 900 left to split over six bets unless you want to do anything over i think what is over is it's a we're getting good money so we're getting plus money and uh i think so i mean that's our standard right we could do yeah do $250,000. Yeah. Up to you. Well, so now we're at three. Now we need, we've got to split, I know we've got to split eight, what have we got to split? $700,000. $700,000 over five wagers.

So what are you thinking for the, which of these other ones do you like the most? I think Lawrence is my next favorite. Lawrence and Colts and Pittman are all nice. So we could do Colts to... The laying the 135 is hard. We'd have to go pretty far in on that. That doesn't bother me. I kind of feel like throwing the Tannehill past New York...

No, that's going to hit. It's going to be gross, but we're going to have to slip that one out, I think. Yeah, that's going to suck. That's going to suck to sweat out. I hate that we're going to be watching the Titans play on like week 16 and be like, Oh God, like please hand it off again.

So it's going to be, it's going to be, it's going to be so, it's going to be so bad. Let me, let me kind of, let me see. That's a good bet though,

because you're basically saying if Malik Willis plays even like two games, right? Yeah. That's basically what we're saying. I'm just kind of doing math here in my head. Yeah. I mean, that's why I think the unders to me are so much better in the future market because it accounts for injury like i mean that's you don't ever want to say that right you don't ever want to root for anyone to be hurt but that's part of this is you have to kind of account for that is that yeah injuries might happen um and if if it does then you got to be ready to to to account for it

do you want to add so if our standard unit here is about 150 since we're spreading it out a little i would do more on tannahill and less on pitman potentially for that reason it's like if pitman misses two games 200 on there and i think we're i think if i did this right, so I did 150 for most of them. And we're just at 1050 for all our wagers. We go with $50 over. I mean, the math is shut to me. We've spent, we bet on Colts to win the division. Pittman over 85.5 receiving yards.

Titans missed playoffs. Tannehill under 3600.5. Lloyd to a defensive rookie of the year. Lawrence under 14 and a half interceptions. Texas over 4 and a half wins. I love that one. That's our highest unit. That and Tannehill under.

And any Houston running back over 1,000 rushing yards. 50 bucks at plus 700. Let's move to the nfc south here i do like um a couple of uh of these teams with their their win totals yeah all right well i'm curious to hear i think i do too um tampa obviously the division favorite 11 and a half wins uh is their total they are minus 250 to win and minus 650 to make the playoffs plus 700 to win the super bowl are you a little bit worried about them so as we're recording this tom brady is has left the team and he is we don't know why he should be back my speculation is that he took like he like he had a family trip planned when he retired for the summer and we when he unretired, his family was like,

yeah, you're fucking going on this trip. You're coming on this trip. And so he's just like going. Because they haven't said it. They said it's a non-medical reason. Nothing with his family. And maybe that's smoke screen. I don't know.

I hope it's not anything medical. But I'm in on Tampa this year, man. They're going to win over 11 and a half games. They're rightful favorite to win the NFC Conference. You know, Ryan Jensen's injury at center is not great, but he should be back at some point this season. Otherwise, they're really talented. And this is like Brady's last hurrah. He wants to win this season and go be the Dolphins' part-time owner,

whatever his next career is going to be. Go work for Fox. Like, I think the over 11 and a half wins at plus 100 to me who's winning more games than them this year the Packers in the NFC the Rams who who's doing that yeah it's a good question I mean I didn't really think of it that way the thing that I just feel like the the I lean slightly under on my own here for for the following reasons mainly there's a lot of question marks including this brady absence that i agree is probably gonna be nothing like tom brady's gonna play um the offensive line last year was unbelievably healthy they already have

suffered you know the jensen injury and their backup center i think just had cramps but he missed some time too already um the wide receivers who knows what they're getting with julio although that's going to be so fun to watch what if and when he uh you know he makes the field uh we don't know what the deal is with godwin like russell gage is a nice player if they had the full compliment that would be a pretty awesome receiving core but who knows mike evans already a little bit banged up like that guy's every year has been so rock solid like at some point you gotta worry but are you telling me that this, but the main, this Tom Brady team is not, is not winning 12 games. I mean, like is what, is it Tom Bowles is there?

Well, the main reason, honestly, I think is that they don't have to, like they just need to get to the playoffs. And I think they can win this division probably by winning 10 games or even 11 games, which would still go under. And I, you know i just don't think that they're going to be like super hyped up to win some random game in december like they have been in years past because of all these sort of weird fluky things that have happened

gronk obviously not being there for now like who knows like it just seems like brady doesn't have his full compliment and we don't totally know what's going on with him off the field. Anyway, the Fournette thing is just kind of weird. There's just like a lot of the Antonio Brown thing that doesn't really affect them, but it's just like, there seems like just a lot of strange stuff with this team.

But the main reason I think that I'm a little cautious about them is they have an insane schedule this year. They play the NFC West and the AFC North. The whole division does obviously, but they also have the chiefs, Cowboys packers it's like they don't every year they seem to like sail through the regular season because they they seem to play the falcons and panthers every single week but this year it's just it seems like it's just gonna be a little bit tougher of a climb so i don't think that they're not gonna win the division i just don't think that they need to go out there and go 15-2 to prove anything i think they just need to survive don't think that they're not going to win the division. I just don't think that they need to go out there and go 15-2 to prove anything.

I think they just need to survive. They certainly don't. But let's talk about records in the NFC Conference, right? Like, you're looking at the winner of that conference winning 13 games, right? 12 or 13 games, right? Like, the best record in that conference, not the winner of the conference, right? So, who are those teams? Is it the Packers?

Rams. Is it the Rams with Stafford's elbow being an issue right now is it the eagles the cowboys yeah cardinals like no it's tampa like i just think that's the way i feel about tampa's like someone has to win 12 games nfc and it's probably the team that's the best team in the nf right now. That's a pretty good argument. It's a pretty good argument. And I do like them as Super Bowl and NFC champions, but the issue with some of those I feel like is,

I mentioned this last episode, this is where the future market gets fun to me, is trying to predict the time of the year to get the best numbers. So, for example, the Chiefs last year were 2-4. I hammered their AFC, they're like plus 1,400 to win the AFC. Didn't work, obviously, in the end, but a really good wager considering the start of the year plus 400, right? So I feel like with Tampa, one loss, two losses this year,

and this number is better. So I'm not going to play it here, but I would definitely play that. One number that's interesting that Hank put in the rundown is the Mike Evans over 1,025.5 receiving yards. Do you know Mike Evans is going to be a Hall of Famer? Are we aware of this? Do people realize this? He's on track to be a Hall of Famer.

If he plays at this level for seven more years, he's only 29 years old. He's going to be near the top in receiving, like second in receiving all time, and be near the top in touchdowns all time. Like, I don't think we realize that. He'll be 29 in just a few days. He's at 9, he'll be 20. I mean, 29 in just a few days. He's at 9,000 yards already. He doubles that, and he's second all-time in receiving NFL history. That's unbelievable.

Now, specifically to this number, he's been over this number, I believe, every year but two. And that was Brady's first year, the one he did in the Super Bowl, and one of the Jamest Winston years. So it's not like he's always been over this number, but there's not as many options for Tom Brady as far as, you know, Gronk's not taking up targets, Godwin's hurt. So I would lean toward that possibly,

but I still just like their win total the best. I mean, we're getting plus money on the over, which I like. So I'm willing to go with you here. I think your reason of like, well, somebody's got to get 12 wins in this conference. Like, that is probably right. You know, it's not Dallas. I don't think it's Green Bay. Like, it's, yeah, it's a solid bet.

I think they just, it's a gauntlet. Like, we're going to be feeling this one, even if they end up going 12-5. Like, we are definitely going to be sweating this one out. And this is one you can hedge to at some point with, you know, you bet on a money line for their opponent one game, right? You find a way out of this. That's true. That's true. Yeah. All right, let's get to the Saints.

I'm curious about what you think about them. They are such a hot team. Sell! Sell! Sell! I'm curious about what you think about them. They are such a hot team. Sell. Sell. I'm with you. I'm 100% with you that everyone is on them to go over. Under. Eight and a half.

No. Under. Under. 3-10, plus 3-10 to win the division, plus 1-25 to make the playoffs. I have my case, but people are here to hear yours. Tell me why. Guys. Okay.

They went from Hall of fame coach hall of fame quarterback to a down right now i don't think winston's bad he's better than the 30 interceptions he threw three years ago but the offense the identity of this team is no longer there pete carmichael's still there but this is sean payne's offense what becomes what becomes of this without him without him there? They lost offensive line. They drafted Trevor Penning, who I do like. But they've had injuries up front.

Michael Thomas is back. They had some defections on defense as well because of free agency. Like, I just think – I'm trying to think of a time when a Hall of Fame coach left a program and, like, they just still won 9 or 10 or 11 games. Right. I completely agree. This is the essence of my case as well. I mean, Sean Payton in his career, 139 in 84.

Dennis Allen, career record, 8 in 28. I understand it was when he was a really young coach and he was with the Raiders a long time ago, but it's a huge change. And not only are we going from a Hall of Fame coach, we're going from a Hall of Fame quarterback essentially too. I know it's another year later, but Jameis Winston had a couple of nice moments last year, but Jameis Winston coming off of an ACL plus Dennis Allen does not a champion make like I just think that everyone needs to cool it a little bit especially when it comes to like oh well their defense is so

awesome it's like yeah they got Tyron Matthew like yeah they have you know a nice secondary and you know Cameron Jordan's ageless like that guy's incredible every single year but like are you really gonna bet that that defense is gonna carry them to like a 10 win juggernaut of a season like i just don't see it like michael thomas who knows alvin camara's got this legal thing who knows like they're just they have a lot of question marks for a team that everyone is i think sort of hoping becomes fun again so i'm i'm with you on the under and i'm i'm fading the saints this year i love it dude i'm in with you there um are there any any props you like here um you know there could be a james winston under but i think he throws for a bunch of yards so it's not really uh that's not really you know kind of

where i mean there's no alvin camara prop yet i imagine right so yeah you can't take the under there um i even forgot about that so you mentioned it like he might not be there yeah i mean he's he who knows but like if alvin Kamara's out for three games, like, do you love them to win over, you know, nine games? Like, I don't, I don't like them. I certainly don't. No. Winston.

I don't like, I don't like comeback player of the year for Winston. Do you? It's the only thing I was sort of intrigued by, just because, you know, I think it would be, if they were good, if you were like, the Saints are going to be awesome, that would probably be how I would play it. But I'm just passing on them, like, in general. I just think they're a team with a ton of question marks.

All right, let's get to the Panthers here, Matt. I'm going to make a case for a prop here. You're going to be shocked I'm going to do it. But let's hear what you think about the win total first. Oh, no. Is my big surprise going to be your big surprise? Are you in on Baker? Well, for what, like, I'm just curious, like, what are you in on Baker for?

I'm in for Baker for Comeback Player of the Year for sure. Yes, yes, same. Are you serious? Yes, yes, yes. Yes, I am too. Yes. I text Hank and I said, Baker Come come back part of the year give me the props he said no way no way we're the same yes baker come back one year love it look great way that

jeff feel feel good story which people love right the joe burrow from last year right feel good story they they got they put they sent deshaun w over him, goes to Carolina. Look, I don't think Baker's great. You've heard my podcast, it's been long enough. You know that. But when he's healthy, he's good. He's okay, right? Don't move the ball on offense.

They're very talented on defense. Ben McAdoo, hopefully he's learned from his mistakes he made in New York. And I think he would come back part of the year. Plus 1200 too. You're missing the best part of the argument. It's like, if he is the starter for the whole season and he's decent, like how is he not winning it? Who's going to take it over him? Like, honestly,

I think his primary competition is on his own team with McCaffrey. Like I genuinely think that, you know, that story is probably going to be one of the two of them. And I think, Baker, you're right. Like, the tide has turned in, like, how people feel about him. I think people feel really bad for him now. Oh, I think they do, too. Also, Panthers over six and a half wins.

The reason why you take the over, do you like it, too? Is that what you're excited about? Yeah, this is insane. Here's why you take the over, do you like it too? Is that what you're excited about? Yeah, this is insane. Here's why you take the over, guys. Because their division freaking sucks. Yep. And they're going to beat the Falcons. They're going to have a combination of three wins at least,

and maybe they sneak in a four. They beat the upset Tampa Bay one time. But at the minimum, they're going to have three wins. They're either going to beat the Falcons twice, beat the Saints twice. Maybe they beat both and they get four wins, right? So you have three wins there. You're playing,

what did they finish in the division last year? Third place schedule. Yeah, third place schedule. Like, I, and again, Baker got the Browns to the point. Now, again,

it wasn't Baker, right? It wasn't just him, right? They had good offense. Everything was rolling and whatnot. The defense. I just think if he wins comeback priority of the year, they also win seven to eight to nine games.

I totally, totally agree. And I thought you usually are pretty down on the Panthers, and I was pretty excited to make the case to you that I have to like them to go over. But one of the reasons also is like if we're both out on the Saints, like somebody's got to win some games in this division, and it's not going to be Atlanta. And we're not talking about the next team in more than four seconds.

Yeah. So I love Baker for Comeback Player of the Year. The Panthers schedule, they start the year with three out of four games at home against Cleveland, the Giants, the Saints, I believe they're the road game, and the Cardinals without DeAndre Hopkins, who are a completely different team. without DeAndre Hopkins, who are a completely different team. So they could start hot, and then they have a late bye, and then go Seattle, Pittsburgh, Detroit at the end of the season off of their bye. So I think that they have a couple of favorable pockets in their schedule, even though this division has a tough break with who they play. I also think Baker, who last year everyone was like, oh, this guy sucks.

Well, he wasn't that terrible last season for when he was playing. And when he was playing, he was really hurt. He got shoulder surgery. He was definitely not himself. And before that, you look at the breakdown of his stats before and after the injury. He had twice the touchdowns and half the interceptions before the injury and after. So he clearly has it. And everyone talks about how great that offense

was in cleveland i would argue i mean the offensive line isn't as good but i would certainly argue that he's got a as good or better of a complement of receivers and if mcafree gives them anything and now they finally have a backup like deontay foreman was really good last year when he played so i think that i think carolina's like they, they're not going to win the Super Bowl, but like they could be a decent team that hangs around and wins eight games. I'm with you. Hank put in a prop here,

DJ Moore over 1099 and a half rushing receiving yards, right? And last year he had, I think he had over that, right? He had 1157 last year and McCaffrey at over 99, 999.5 rushing yards to combine right at plus three 30. If McCaffrey plays 10 games, is he, is he at that number?

Like 90 yards a game. Well, I also like this one, this one here of Baker to go over 4,000 and Carolina to go over six and a half. That's for plus 260. That's pretty tasty. That is tasty. Because who knows about McCaffrey? The problem is with McCaffrey, and that's the problem, right?

It's that he's just the injury history. I just did running back, taking it over and running back. Yeah, we don't do that. That's our one policy, except we broke it. So what do you have for Baker? For how many yards for Baker? 4,000.

399.5. He has not ever been there in his career. It's only, I mean, well, remember this extra game. It's only 235 yards a game. Like, it's not a crazy number. He's only average. Yeah, it's not. How much is that? That's plus 260, I think.

I'm just looking up his career stats here. Yeah. I mean, we have some money to spend in this division. I'm fine with that. Do you know that's exactly his career average per game, 235.4. Yeah. For this prop to hit, he has to go 235.3. So he needs over how many yards, you said?

4,000. 235.3 yards per game. Plus Panthers. Plus Panthers. His exact career average. Yep. Okay. It's interesting.

It's so funny. I mean, is there any value for them to make the playoffs plus 350? I assume no, but. Yes. In the NFC? Sure. Who are the sure playoff teams in the NFC right now? The Bucs?

Yep. The Bucs. The Packers. The Rams probably, right? Those three. One out of the East. I would put Philly and Dallas in the playoffs,

both of them. We disagree on Philly, but sure. So that's five. You still need, what, two more now? Yeah.

So is it Arizona? San Francisco. But if it's Trey Lance, that's not happening. It's not Seattle. So maybe it's Arizona. Maybe it's the Vikings. Spoiler alert. Yeah.

Okay. But now we're at six. And then it's between Arizona. Yeah. And then it's between Arizona. And then it's between. I would rather take that than the Baker Mayfield over 4,000 yards. Let's take that.

Plus 350. That's take them. Plus 350. That's a good number. Huh. All right. I have a thing. I like that one. It's a nice one to chase, too. We'll know if we're toast on that one by, like, week three.

Yeah, then we can find a way out of it. Yeah, that's true, too. All right. Baker. All right. Should we just get through the goddamn Falcons here? Should we just do the under and be done with it? It's minus 145 though.

I think the way we play the Falcons is, the Falcons are tanking. I think that any single Mariota under is the way to play this. They're going to put Desmond Ritter out there just to see what they've got at some point. There is no reason for them to

middle around with Mariota with this team there just isn't what's his number what's his quarterback number at I I to be honest like I don't know or even totally care like he's just like whatever it is like he's not starting how many games is he going to start for them five yeah yeah just ridder yeah i like that it's just like what incentive is there for for them to play him i might empty my i might empty my personal wagering account on the falcons to miss the playoffs at minus 1200 there's so many better ways to do that why i because like you're gonna set aside you're just gonna

invest that money for like a .01 return for the course of the season and sideline it like come on just bet

just bet the Texans in week one with it you'll get you'll get it back faster let's see

I'm kind of curious it's $100 it's a free $100. I mean, I'm not going to say no to it. Hank says the Mariota passing yards are not public. Yeah, because he's not going to play. And even if he plays, has he ever played a full season?

And has he ever been good? Like, I just, they're not trying to win. They're paying a shit ton of money to Matt Ryan. Their leading running back is Cordero Patterson, who's my age. Like, they're not going to win. They're paying a shit ton of money to Matt Ryan. Their leading running back is Cordero Patterson, who's my age. Like, they're not going to win any games. Their wide receiver is suspended for listening to our podcast too much. Like, there's just no, there's nobody on that offense. So, I kind of want to, let's like do this.

want to let's like do this i really think we should leave like 200 open for that way for mario to prop if it comes available yeah i doubt that anyone would oh i'm also like way out on drake london in fantasy i'm just way out like he's a uh i drewarry said this in Why Your Team Sucks. He's like, so I'm supposed to believe that the slowest deep threat didn't get slower from a broken ankle? Like, what are we talking about here? And they have a quarterback who can't throw. Like, anyone who's like, Drake London's going to win rookie of the year, like, no, there's no chance. I didn't think you were reading Deadspin.

He's no longer there. That's think you were reading Dead Spins. He's no longer there. That's the Dead Spins thing they do? Shout out to him for the Wire Team Sucks. I read the Bears one today, and I laughed until I cried. It was so freaking funny. I've got to read the Chiefs one. It's going to be predictable, but I'll read it nonetheless. All right, so we'll do do we'll uh we'll do we'll do um nothing for the

falcons right now we'll save some room for maybe by the end of this series by september we'll have a mario to passing number all right so we know we're kind of light here in the in the uh in the south but i feel like that's um you know kind of just you know we were heavy in the in the afc south we're a little lighter in the nfc south All right, Bucs over 11.5 wins. I mean, we have five wagers. We could just put 200 on all of them and be done with it. Or is there one you want? Yeah, let's do that.

Or we could put a little more back into this AFC. Yeah, well, because the Panthers playoffs won. I'm not betting 200 on that at a plus 350. Yeah. How much do you want to put on? I mean, we could put 100. Do you want to put 50 or 100 on Mayfield comeback player of the year? 100?

Let's do 50 and put some more back into the AFC South. I just feel like there was so much that we liked there. We're allowed to do that, right? Yeah, we can do whatever we want. I mean, we have. Yeah, there you go. I asked the boss. The boss says yes.

So where do you want to put more into this kind of up a couple of these here? Yeah, should we add 50 bucks to the Texans over? Yeah, that's fine. I put $50 on Colts to win the division too. So then we should have 900. So then we have 900 bucks to spend. We could just roll it over too, by the way, to Chiefs winning the Super Bowl eventually.

So that could be somewhere we roll over to. I mean, there's one or two that i'm so in on on those other conferences this is the worst this is gonna be the worst episode if you made it this far in the episode the other episodes are gonna be better because these teams all suck there's not one fun team here except except i think the the saints and maybe the panthers i like panthers over six and a half let's do 300 for that one. How about that? A little bit more than the standard unit or not? Maybe keep it standard. Let's do 200.

And then if we have more left, we'll just keep it standard. So we only... So we got to roll this over here because we only have 700 bucks we spent on this division. Bucks over 11.5. Saints under 8.5. Mayfield comeback player of the year. Panthers over 6.5.

Panthers playoffs. And then we'll leave a space here for Mariota's underpassing. I like that one, Matt. But to your point, they're probably not going to put it in because that seems like a losing proposition for the sports.

Under rushing, under anything, under touchdowns, whatever they give us, we're taking it because there's just no chance he plays for the whole season. None. I'm with you.

I'm with you. All right, guys. We did it again. We've made it through another episode. Matt did not make me cry this time, laughing so hard. But we had a great time again. Hope we made you some money. Hope we made you think about these teams this year.

Back next week with two more episodes. One kind of discussing the topics of the day and one going with the West, I believe. We're going to save the North for Deshaun Watson news, right? That's basically what we're doing. Until we have a really a firm grasp on what the Browns are going to be this year, we're

saving the North. But if we get the Watson news, maybe we'll go to the North. Because I want to save the West as long as possible, if possible, because obviously that's I mean, we're going to spend all our money on that. It shows everyone else. Both divisions are fantastic this year. All right, guys, have a great weekend. Watch your preseason football.

Bet on the Ravens. We'll be back next week with more.