Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Steelers Finally Lose, Baker Dominates, & The NFC East is up for Grabs

Episode Date: December 8, 2020

Geoff explains why the Steelers lost and why Baker Mayfield's big game may end up hurting the Browns in the long term. Plus Geoff and Gabe have some fun discussing HBO's The Undoing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's tuesday december 8th it is the third quarter of bill's niners game right now but i have to jump on and talk about the steelers plus gabe will join us in just a little bit talk about the rest of the nfl this is the jeff schwartz is smart new podcast welcome hope you had a great weekend of nfl action i know i did it was much enjoyable wow the nfc east making moves this weekend let's talk about the game that we just saw yesterday. The Washington football team goes into Pittsburgh, beats the Steelers 23-17. Alex Smith, look, I thought he was never going to play again.

Even when he's put back on the roster, I thought they would never play him. He played an Alex Smith game up and down early in the game. When it came down to it, he made plays at the end of the game. Congratulations to him. Congratulations to Ron Rivera, who's done a fantastic job of dealing with his own cancer this year, dealing with Alex Smith coming back, with quarterback changes,

with everything that's happening in that organization. Huge, huge win for the Washington football team. A buddy of mine texted me, said, that's not what happens to Washington. Washington does not win these type of games. And guess what? They finally did. But the takeaway here

is the Steelers are a flawed football team. We've been talking about this for a while now, and it finally came to fruition in this game. The thing I've said about the Steelers all along was offensively, they're not good enough to compete against the Steelers. Excuse me, the Chiefs. Not good enough to compete against the Steelers. Excuse me, the Chiefs.

Not good enough to compete against the Chiefs. Defensively, they are elite, guys. No doubt about it. They had more injuries today. We'll have to see what those injuries will be moving forward. Defensively, they can rush the passer with just four. They can cover in the back end. They swarm.

Their fourth turnover is all great. I'm all with you there. But offensively, the concerns I have with this team, and yes, drops are a big part of it. Obviously, if you fix the drops, you fix a lot of the concerns. But here's the thing. When you watch the Chiefs play, the Saints play, even the Bills tonight against the Niners,

there are easy throws within that offense, right? You watch that, you're like, oh, easy throw, first down. Oh, design play, easy throw, big gain. The Steelers' offense looks painful to get yards, right? It just doesn't look easy. It looks tough. Guys aren't always open. They can't rush the football, which is not that important,

but it was tonight because they had opportunities late in the game. Third and one, they were on RPO. Fourth and one, they threw a fade route to a third string running back. Bad throw by Big Ben.

Kind of a back shoulder, but high and backed. Wasn't kind of on the line. And their offense just feels hard to come by big plays. They had one today. It's a five-yard pass, two missed tackles, later a touchdown. But those plays don't win you playoff games, right?

It looks and feels so hard for this offense. That's what I've said all along. I've said all along that, look, the Steelers have an excellent defense. They're very well coached. We know that. All good, all good. But against the Chiefs, against the Buffalo Bills, who they're playing next weekend, against the Browns possibly,

your offense has to look a little bit easier to get big plays, easier to generate big plays. Now, when the offensive line packs projects good and Big Ben can hit that back foot and plant, yeah, he can make some plays. But again, there's not a lot of easy plays to be made for the Steelers. That's what worries me about them. It's what worries me about them the whole time.

Yes, they've scored a ton of points. But look at a lot of the games they've scored points. It's late at the end of games. They have great field position. Entering last night, second in the NFL, field position for their offense, starting field position for their offense. And I think the scoring number is a little misleading. They entered tonight eighth before this week,

eighth in offensive EPA, so their scoring, even though they're second in the AFC, doesn't really match up with their expected points added. And so, again, we saw tonight, right, just it was tough on offense, tough on offense, especially when they needed a yard. The positive, though, is now the way it's off their backs of a 16-0 season, right? And you hear people say all the time,

I've not been good enough on any team to a loss to help me. But people say, hey, the loss refocuses your team, right? It refocuses the energy in the right direction. You're no longer worried about 16-0. You're no longer about it no there's the pressure's not there anymore making it happen but you're able to hone back in on fundamentals and use the loss as fuel so all right guys let's hit the game all right let's welcome in gabe gabe how we doing buddy congrats your trojans won yesterday when no one was watching. Doesn't even count, but nonetheless, here we are.

How was your weekend of football? My weekend of football was very good. Two things happened that were supposed to happen. The Trojans won. Some sort of a playoff hope is still alive. We'll get to that in over-under. And the Jets lost in epic fashion, which we will also cover. But a lot of people out there were tweeting me

and texting me saying, your Jets are going to Jets. I was like, no, no, have faith. There's one thing we know how to do. It's lose. And sure enough, lose we did. So two for two yesterday. And the Jets did a great job of being the Jets. And Greg Williams, the defense coordinator, out as of today.

No surprise, obviously, here. It's interesting. People, Mike Silvers, tweeting about the firing. He said the Raiders were prepared for the all-out pressure, which we knew because that's what Greg Williams always does. One person caught off guard. Adam Gase, never imagined his D.C. would make a call, leaving him so vulnerable

in the back end i'm just unbelievable incompetence in that organization yeah i uh i tweeted something earlier uh that i think you will enjoy which is that adam gaze is what happens if the owner's ted lasso plan works like like if you don't want him to be likable you don't want him to be good at like you just want to suck and have no redeeming qualities that's what we got in new york no ted lasso great ted lasso that show was fantastic go watch ted lasso everyone it's well worth your time all right enough talking about the lowly jets who will have trevor lawrence in about three months let's get on to the business at hand yeah so let's talk about Sunday. I know you're covering the Monday games. We're going to get to Sunday games in a second too.

But also we've got a Tuesday game. Assuming they play the Tuesday game on Tuesday this week. So listen, we thought we had two Super Bowl contenders in the Cowboys and the Ravens, at least in September. Now here we are in December. It doesn't necessarily look that way. So the Cowboys will say they're done, but the Ravens are hanging on for dear life. And if they win this week, we have to continue talking about them in

the AFC. Steve Kornacki will remind us those numbers next week. We're down on them because their record has been kind of crappy lately and they had the COVID outbreak, which took out the quarterback. Now they're playing a third string quarterback, but I can't rule them out because those losses come against the Steelers twice, the Chiefs, Bill Belichick, the Titans in overtime. They might not suck. The Ravens could still be a good team. Give me something to look for tonight. Yeah, they could still be a good team, but their schedule is a little tough.

By the way, I wouldn't count the Cowboys completely out. There's a week 17 Giants-Cowboys game that might loom very large. We'll maybe talk about that later this month. Nice teaser. Okay. Okay. Okay. The Ravens right now have the Cowboys.

It's a must win, right? Lamar Jackson's going to be back, and you have to win this game. Your double-digit or close double-digit favorites, almost 10 points. You have to win this game, right? That puts you at 7-6 after a three-game losing streak. Excuse me, 7-5 and six after three game losing streak uh excuse me seven and five to three losing streak um and then you're at the browns tough game right browns are getting better and we'll talk about the browns in a second jacksonville you're gonna win that game nines at home that can get a lot tougher at the bangles now you need three out of five wins

minimum to get yourself into a wildcard situation. With the last wildcard now, obviously it makes it a little bit easier, but being the Browns again gives you that tiebreaker against Cleveland, so very important to win that game as well. You know, right now they're sitting at, you know, just looking on the outside. You know, they win this game. They're 7-5. They're the eighth spot tied with the Raiders.

Yeah, I think the Browns game is a must-win in a couple weeks. That feels like if they don't win that game, we're looking at a tough spot to make in the playoffs. All right, but you just told me the Cowboys are not officially dead, so let's not look past tonight's game. And you said Lamar is in. Now, I hope you have newer information than I do, but it sounded like we were getting ready for some dude I'd never heard of.

So Lamar's playing COVID free, ready to roll. I think Lamar's in, I think the line is set up to where Lamar's in. I mean, they're baking that into there. There's no way that a, a line would be that high for that game. And Lamar not playing.

I mean, look from a day ago, Ravens quarterback expected to start Ravens quarterback. Lamar Jacks expected to start Tuesday night's game against the Cowboys, as source told ESPN's Adam Schefter. So that feels about right. I mean, look, the line's not going to be, what is it? Like I said, eight, eight and a half, eight and a half right now. If Lamar wasn't playing, there's no way.

No, that's fair. All right, so then with Lamar out there and them starting to get pieces back after that outbreak, if they win here, then you have always been the guy who told me they can't play from behind. I'm in great at it. They haven't been great at it.

And that their defense is pretty good, but are they really built for the playoffs? So what you see right now, before this game is played, if they do get in, can they cause trouble? Well, they haven't shown the ability to do that. Right. And here's the thing is you look at who they played this year. They, they played let's assume the Browns are a playoff team, right?

They beat the Browns 38 to six, the first game of the season. I think the Browns are a better football team now, right? They lost the chiefs by, by two touchdowns. They lost the Steelers the first time. Remember, they had 495 yards on offense but just ended up turning the ball over four times. That was a close game, but

nonetheless, that goes down as a loss. They lost the Patriots to a little springy right now, right? I mean, they're doing a good job. Cam Neuenthil for 69 yards and they win a game 45-0 pretty remarkable lost the times in a game that that is a bad loss you're up you're up by 10 8 points with uh less than four minutes left have to win that game and then lost the steelers with half your team out so um they beat the colts good win

for them 24 10 so they've beaten two playoff teams. Lost the other ones. I just, I don't think as constructed offensively, they would be enough to win multiple playoff games and get the Super Bowl. I don't think that's what they are right now. All right, fair enough. So the loser tonight, we're done talking about. But the Cowboys with a win, we're not done.

If Baltimore loses tonight with Lamar Jackson in the lineup, they might make the playoffs, but they're no longer a team we talk about this year in a positive light. The Cowboys, again, that division is so bad game that the Cowboys can still win the division with a Week 17 win against the Giants. If they lose this game, they'll be 3-9, okay? Giants are 5-7.

Giants still have to play the Cardinals this weekend. They've got to play the Ravens still. There's still an opportunity for the Giants to lose some games. They go Cardinals, Browns, Ravens, Cowboys. Are you telling me they're going to win all of those? If they win two of those games, that's seven wins, maybe enough to win division. But they might go 1- three the last four games.

I don't know. My buddy Peter Schrager said that might have been the biggest win of the entire NFL season this weekend beating Seattle. Yes. Schrager might have used a little hyperbole there. Sure. Great win for the Giants. Giants defense has played much better the last couple of weeks.

It was a good win for them. It's easy to blame Seattle, and there were definitely issues on that offense, but the Giants deserved that game. They won that game. Good for them. I will remind people that you played for the Giants. That doesn't make you a Giants homer like some people might guess. I don't really understand that, that I have to be a homer for someone

because did you guys go to my Twitter this weekend, watch me tweet about Oregon football this weekend? Does it appear that I'm a homer? No, you're always honest. Well, so then how come... I want to know how come every time the Giants put a win or two together or do something that gives them any hope, I have noticed, and I used to fight the idea of an East Coast bias

when I worked at ESPN. I didn't think it was a fair criticism but i have noticed a giant's bias and maybe it's because they've had those two fabulous runs where they weren't supposed to do anything and they won the superbowl that anytime the giants show they're not dead everyone acts like they're suddenly contenders so we should not fall for that right just because they're playing a little better than they were a month ago they're still just like a below average team, right? I'm glad you mentioned this. This is really interesting. So they're five and seven, right, guys?

And we act like they're the best team. They do the best job of any team of using the media to their advantage. They have a ton of former Giants beat writers that become national NFL guys. And Schrager might be one of them. I'm not calling out Schrager. I think he does a great job. But is he one of them? He's a very well-sourced in New York guy.

I don't think he covered the Giants beat per se. But he absolutely has good connections in that building. What's funny is a lot of the national guys that have moved on from the local beat don't happen in the facility. But they do a great job and this joe judge mark colombo thing the fire was a great example i didn't talk about this before mark schlareth who called the giants game yesterday even tweeted out he goes yeah that whole thing about the giants offensive line being coached but i talked to joe judge about it not

true right not it's not joe just didn't change the offensive line the new offensive line coach changed the offense on and so did colombo before they got into an argument. And so they do a great job of just getting the word out, man. They have a lot of media members that rely on them for information. They're good at spreading that information out. I don't know if it has anything to do with Eli Manning in 2011. That's a long time ago now. Whole different staff, whole different team.

There's a lot of Giants fans. A lot of them populate Twitter. So there's a lot of love for the Giants right now lot of them populate Twitter. So there's a lot of, of love for, for the Giants right now. And look, they've won four in a row. I get it,

but you know, they're five and seven. If they were in any other division game, we'd look at them and five and seven, you'd be like, all right, thanks for playing this season. Well,

we're obliged as a show that takes on the takes that are bouncing around on Monday and Tuesday in Super Bowl media. Super Bowl media? Football media. Everyone else is talking about Wentz. We've already covered this one as far as I'm concerned. We were ahead of this story with the Jalen Hurts switch and how basically they're screwed with Wentz. Is there anything to add there as the Eagles lose and make a quarterback change? And everyone says what you told us a month ago. Well, here's the problem is the Eagles lose and make a quarterback change. And everyone says what you told us a month ago. Well,

here's the problem is the Eagles are stuck with Wentz. Like they, I wrote about this for Fox sports, man. It's like, they're stuck with them. They paid him all this money. They cannot get rid of him until the end of next season of 2021.

They've sunk all these draft picks into him, all this money into him. And when lineups in the NFL are not always built on merit. I think people think you win the competition out and you start in the NFL. No, they're made up by some of those guys, but also made up by contracts and how you pay guys, what draft resources you use to pick up a guy. Wentz checks all those boxes, draft resources resources, money, spent, all this stuff. And so they have to get him to play well.

I looked at it for next season. The cap goes to, let's say, 175. It's supposed to go down, right? Because of COVID year. He didn't account for almost 20% of the cap for next season. That's not good if you're not playing that guy who accounts for 20% of your cap. You're wasting your resources by having a guy sit on the bench

who's taking up $35 million of your cap. And so the Eagles have to play him. They don't have a choice. They have to get Carson Wentz to play better. Probably not going to happen this season, but whether that's a coaching change or whether that is a whole offseason spent adjusting his whatever, his mechanics, his footwork, his arm slot, his mindset,

whatever you do, that's the guy who has to be playing next season. Jalen Hurts, he played okay, I guess. He threw a late touchdown pass. They were already down 20 points. It was fourth and 18 with like eight minutes left. I mean, he did a good job when he was asked to throw. But is he the guy that... I think you have to continue to go to Wentz.

Yeah. I feel bad for Hertz. Hertz is in a bad spot because poor kid, man. He deserves an opportunity. Carson Wentz has been terrible, but he's not going to get that chance because of the money they put into Wentz. Yeah.

I don't want to compare it to Favre and Rodgers because I don't think any of the people involved are comparable. But it's a similar sort of situation for our front office and coaches to realize like where the money is and what how they have to protect an investment but par was still playing well though relatively well i mean wench just isn't yeah fair enough um well let's talk about another guy who i think fell into this similar category uh that you're describing here of a guy who they've already made their bet on and they have to live with. But you might have been wrong about your boy Baker, Jeff. And I bring this up every other week or so, but I think it's time to

talk about the Browns. We know every show opened with the Browns today. We know, you know, the takes are very simple. Here they are. They're legit. They're nine and three now. And everyone is seeing Baker as having arrived he threw four touchdown passes i think in the first quarter it was not lights out um you are one of the people who've acknowledged the browns are good but you're giving other people credit you're giving coach credit you're giving bill callahan credit you don't seem willing to give baker mayfield credit so i just want to know the browns are pretty good right so here's what i'm going to say people are going to be surprised by this but i think i'm going to be right in the end and i

think you're going to think about this just have an open mind when you hear me say this all right baker mayfield has played better the last couple of weeks i'm not going to lie about that what what really struck me as as fabulous on sunday for this browns team was this was the biggest test they've had all season right they built up to this up to this moment. And Tennessee is flawed, but they're a good football team, right? They're coached by a good coach. We like him. We like Ryan Tannehill. They had a great game plan, the Browns did, especially offensively.

Defensively, they played fast. They forced turnovers. They shut down Henry. They were great in the first half. Beckham made a foot, I think, at 290 yards in the first half. They were 7 of 8 on third down. Tennessee's awful on third down. Guys were wide the F open.

Great job. Baker Mayfield was not pressured. Tennessee's terrible at pressuring Baker Mayfield. And so it became very clear to me. I've thought about this for a little bit of time now, is that the Browns have a great coaching staff. It's very clear, right? The coaching staff through 12 games, through 12 weeks, 13 weeks now, good.

We get it. They're good. Offensive line coach Bill Callen's great. Defense, Miles Garrett, fabulous, right? They have other pass rushers. They're good in the secondary. They're fast at linebacker. Offensively, they have a great offensive line.

They have Landry. Odell will come back. They have tight ends. They have running backs. All good. Baker played well. Yes. Not the guy to win a Super Bowl with.

And there's a difference. Gabe, listen to me. Listen to me. You need a quarterback who, when pressured, is going to play well. Because when you get to the playoffs, you're not going to have the Tennessee Titans pass rush every week. It's been proven. And when everything goes well, Baker plays well.

When things break down, Baker does not play well. Reminds me a lot of Alex Smith. I played with Alex Smith, Chiefs quarterback. After 2016 season, the Chiefs made the playoffs the third time in four years after that season. They traded up for Pat Mahomes, saying, look, we're not sure Alex is the guy. We'll give him

one more year, but we're not quite sure. We're going to be bold, and we're going to take a Super Bowl caliber roster. Yes, they've added Frank, and we're going to take a Super Bowl-caliber roster. Yes, they've added Frank Clark and Honey Badger. I get that. But the backbone of that team was already there, and we're going to be bold and trade up for a quarterback for the future. I think the Browns are in that spot right now. They have to be honest with themselves and say, look, is Baker the guy to win a Super

Bowl? Remember, it often takes an elite-playing quarterback to win a Super Bowl? Remember, it often takes an elite playing quarterback to win a Super Bowl. Nick Foles, that's not normal, right? Even last year, Jimmy Garoppolo did a great job of getting the Niners to the Super Bowl. When it mattered the most, he missed on third and sixth, and he missed a wide-open Sanders for a touchdown to win the game. Those are two throws. Does Baker Mayfield make those two throws, Gabe, in that situation?

I don't know. Like, you need to have that lead level player if they feel that any of these guys in this draft whether and they're not and then they won't get Trevor Lawrence but Justin Fields or Zach Wilson or your favorite guy Trey Lance if they feel that that guy is better than Baker Mayfield they have to go up and trade for him and get him and be bold. Because you're not going to win it. Again, Baker's playing well, better now. He still has to play the Steelers

and the Ravens. We'll see how he does in those games. But he's not a Super Bowl winning quarterback. The roster has a potential to be a Super Bowl winning quarterback. I don't think Mayfield's the guy. Second half, by the way, offense just completely disappeared again, right?

So they scored three points second half. I get they're up big, but Tennessee started marching that down the field, making plays. Guys, they're up 38-7. The game ended with an onside kick. Like, we forget the second half. The offense disappeared again. So I just, I know Browns fans don't want to hear this.

I'm giving you props. Great coaching staff so far this year. Have a Super Bowl caliber roster. You have all the pieces needed. Offense line, defense line, secondary. You've drafted well. But I think you need to go out and get yourselves an elite level quarterback. Interesting.

Okay, so in your dismissal of Baker Mayfield, you've somehow figured out a way to compliment the Chiefs, which I think is going to get some people in your mentions. Well, they moved off from Alex Smith Smith and no one thought that was smart. What you said. Hey, listen, I wanted to argue with you. But what you said just made a lot of sense to me. I guess here's my only challenge to it. You don't seem to like the idea of the Packers going out and getting the quarterback they believe in in the first round while they still have Aaron Rodgers on the roster. So why would you be okay with it in Baker's situation?

Well, I mean, we compared Aaron Rodgers and Baker Mayfield. Okay, that's a fair response. I guess it's just, it's getting harder and harder to say he's not the guy if they're 9-3 and he looks like the guy. I got it when he was like, they were, you know, about 500 and he had no stats, but he looked great. I think the better answer will be after they play the Ravens and Steelers and the Giants.

Like, Tennessee Titans are awful on defense. They've made every quarterback look good this season. So, I want to see – again, Baker did his job. Guys are wide open. Stefanski called an amazing game. I mean, it was a great game by him. But I don't know, man. I feel like – and I tweeted this

yesterday, is this game's going to fool the Browns into paying Baker Mayfield this offseason. It is going to be a huge mistake. Okay. Well, let's say you're on record now. I think this is fairly bold of you. I think most of the sports media is having a, you know, a Baker parade today. I find the Baker debate to be pointlessly stupid i don't even know what we're talking about half the time i feel like the guy's obviously pretty good and the only question is how good is he which is where you're saying not good enough to win i mean look he entered the game as good as he's played the last six weeks of the season he entered the game below average in expected points added and PFF grade against pressure.

Like all these things, third down. I mean, he played one good half of football and we're going to lose our minds over it. Like would we do the same for any other quarterback? If Jared Goff played one good half of football or Jimmy Garoppolo or Cousins or who else? Kyler Murray or Josh Allen or any of these guys. And we just completely lost our minds

of one good half of football. This is why the NFL, guys, is fantastic because it's a long effing season. And if you react so viscerally to one half of football, you're not going to be good at football. Like, that's just, you can't overreact to things that are happening.

Your thoughts are going to be lost. You're not going to be accurate ever. And that's a thought I've had for a while now about Baker Mayfield. It just didn't pop in my head watching him dominate that game. Well, I'm glad you mentioned what you did because that's where I was about to take us. Something you and I were texting about over the weekend is what you just mentioned, that we're kind of wrong early on.

Remember the conclusions we reached within the first month of the season? The Seahawks were going to win the Super Bowl and Russ was going to win the MVP those were a given the Raiders look like a playoff team you know the Titans were unbeatable there was a lot going on there that now sounds kind of ludicrous so looking forward to the final month here is there anything you want to revise any takes you've had that you want to redo on because clearly we've all collectively been wrong about a few things this year yeah you know there's there's a lot how about the the vikings and giants being left for dead now back

in the vikings in the playoff hunt giants right now winning the division this is the thing about the nfl season man it's such a grind this is why if sometimes my opinions feel contrary to public opinion that's because I don't overreact like this because I know it's a long season right I don't and and I just because in the end over 17 weeks of season typically the better teams win and like things in the end you know things even out over a long season um you know look I think Seattle's an interesting case because through the first five weeks of the season, they were the Super Bowl favorites, right?

They were MVP, let Russ cook, and they have just drastically fallen off a cliff, man. Offensively, Russell Wilson's trying to do too much and then do not enough. I mean, they were guys open yesterday, just didn't throw the ball. Defensively, they've improved too, and that's the funny part is we talk about their defense early in the season.

Their defense has gotten better. The rest has gotten worse. I don't know what to make of Seattle. But I don't think I made any sweeping proclamations about the NFL season after six weeks. I don't really do that. That's not like a thing I do where I just say, like, the rest of the season is going to be this way.

So a redo, I mean, maybe the Giants being good, I guess, as a redo, because I didn't see that happening, even though I don't know if they're actually good. They're 5-7. I think I said Mike Zimmer should be fired. That obviously might have been wrong. I'm looking to get you to admit the Packers are the best team in the NFC. Oh, no, that's the Saints.

Oh, come on, man. I'm giving you a chance. No, the Packers defense still. Aaron Rodgers is playing MVP ball. He is. They can play some defense when they need to i don't when they're healthy their offense has every weapon available it's the packers i don't trust their defense in the end i trust i trust well i trust the saints right now that i do over the packers if it's if the saints had to go to green bay i'd feel differently in the playoffs.

And obviously the Packers have a tiebreaker against the Saints right now. Saints defense, though, has been amazing. Dude, two weeks. Chiefs-Saints in two weeks. How about that? That tells a lot about both teams. Well, and I don't think either one's going to want to show the other much. And that's going to be a great opportunity for us to start moving the line a little over under segment because the first couple topics are chiefs and saints related so let's take a quick break have a sip of water

we'll be back in a minute with moving the line boom and there it is wireless on the most reliable network nationwide that's cool but with my wireless i get unlimited for just 30 bucks impressive but does yours have 5g included of course and my wireless saves me 400 bucks a year All right, Jeffff we're back it's time to move the line a few over under bets that probably are not real but i'm gonna throw them at you anyway i mentioned the chiefs just before the break uh i want to know over under how cute are the chiefs being like 99 on the 100 cute scale what the hell is with the offense? What are they doing? Yeah, so I think I saw they have

seven of eight red zone opportunities. They haven't scored a touchdown recently. You know, the Chiefs are interesting because I keep hearing this. I agree a little bit of this. They're just like bored, right? They're just trying to get to the playoffs and let loose in the playoffs.

And I buy a little bit of that because they just haven't finished games very well. I mean, look at the game on Sunday night. They had a Tyreek Hill touchdown that no one knew he caught a touchdown, which is incredible. It was an incredible catch. And no unit Tyreek Hill didn't realize it.

It was like three catches in one play. So that's seven more points, right? So now they win by 13. They had a touchdown call back on a holding. It was a holding. It didn't need a hold, but it was a holding. So seven had a touchdown called back on a holding. It was a holding. It didn't need to hold, but it was a holding.

So seven more points are called back. Pat Mahomes missed Tyreek Hill early in the game. That would put him in the red zone again. They got too cute on

that one drive, right? They should just run the ball or pass the ball easily. And then obviously, so there's 28 points just left out on the table right there.

I guess it would be 24 because they ended up kicking a field goal. Yeah, 25 because they kicked a field goal in that situation. So there's a lot of points the Chiefs leave out there. And this is why they have trouble finishing games. I know it's easy to say because we saw them do it last year in the playoffs.

Just turn it on, right? They're the Warriors. Just turn it on. I would like to see them blow some teams out down the stretch. I feel like when you get to the playoffs and you're playing the Bills, the Titans, the Browns, the Steelers, the Ravens, whoever, the Colts, like you can't just glide through three quarters of football and then just turn it on at the end.

It doesn't really work like that in the playoffs. Chiefs defense, by the way, they've allowed 21 or less points eight times this year. Only team NFL to do that. Chiefs defense doesn't rush a passer very well recently, but holds teams to less than 21 points. It's kind of impressive. But those teams have been like the Broncos and, you know, like Herber.

It's not the Jets. They scored 31 against the Panthers. So I just, I worry about Gabe like that. I get they're bored. They just want to get to the playoffs. But I want to see them, they have four games. I want to see them blow some teams out. Like, show me that you can finish a game on a high note.

Because the last couple of weeks, they've kind of limped to the finish. They haven't covered the last four games. No, my buddy Trey Wingo was tweeting about it. And also called them a little too cute and maybe a little bit bored. But Panthers by two, Raiders by four, Bucks by three, Broncos by six, and it was too close for most of the game.

And you know what's interesting real quick is that the win percentage charts for a lot of those games show the Chiefs winning by 70% most of the game, even when they were down a point or two. Everyone expects them to win, which they expect also, but I still want to see them blow teams out. Because what's hard for us to process as fans who don't know as much about the X's and O's is, it seems like, I tweeted something about this, it seems like they're a comic up on the stage at 1 a.m.

workshopping a new bit and not actually doing the hour-long special on Netflix. All these motion gags and Hardman is moving this way and Mahomes is faking like he's taking the snap and there's running backs. It's just a lot of crap when you're in the red zone. Why aren't they just handing it to one of the two Pro Bowl caliber running backs and smashing it into the red zone? Why aren't they just handing it to one of the two Pro Bowl caliber running backs

and smashing it into the end zone? Why don't they want to just score the normal way if they can? I think it just could be boredom. I don't know. Is that a thing? Boredom?

I would think touchdowns are pretty exciting. I think it's when I have some fun sometimes. All right. Well, I hope it's not their downfall, and I hope they can just turn it on. But like you said, it's hard to turn it on against very good teams. Let's move to that team you mentioned who they might be playing in a couple weeks,

and who knows what they'll show each other. And this is the fundamental question I have. I don't know if anyone else is really asking this yet. Over under 51% chance the Saints stick with Taysom Hill over Drew Brees, even when Drew's healthy. They might like what Saints stick with Taysom Hill over Drew Brees even when Drew's healthy. They might like what they have with Taysom. I would say under. I don't think they're going to bring Drew Brees back.

No matter what. Oh, yeah. I mean, you can't play the Falcons every week. No, but Taysom Hill has now done everything. I mean, he's doing it all. Okay. You don't think that there's a possibility that they say Drew could use another week or two for those ribs,

that the first time he's available won't be the first time we see him? Yeah, I don't know if he plays against Philly, but I think he plays against the Chiefs. Drew Brees does. Okay. Well, we're going to probably come back to this then, but you'd say if Drew's healthy, if he's cleared to play against the Chiefs, you think they'll put him out there? I wonder strategically if they should. Shouldn't they not show their best stuff if they think they're a Super Bowl team? have to win that game for seeding purposes, right?

The Chiefs probably don't. So I can see the Chiefs not showing much. But this idea of like showing stuff, it's just, it's not really, there's not much you're going to do. Like it's, you might save one or two specific things for the next time you play each other, but there's no guarantee you're going to face each other in the Super Bowl.

And if you need to win that game and it's for seeding purposes, I mean, the Chiefs, if the Pittsburgh keeps winning, Chiefs have to win that game. Right? Like, if Pittsburgh loses, Chiefs need to win that game. Well, I don't think the Chiefs do much differently. I mean, they're going to put their best team out there

and try to win the game. I mean, look, the idea maybe is that Sean Payton wants to see Taysom Hill. I think that's a really good team. It's just a possibility. But is it worth going to Green Bay in January to play that playoff game Sean Payton wants to see Taysom Hill. I think that's a really good team. It's just a possibility. But is it worth going to Green Bay in January to play that playoff game because Taysom Hill is playing against the Chiefs? But I don't think it's a sure thing that Drew Brees wins that game anyway. It's not.

Right, so let Taysom see what he can do. I mean, you know, I don't know. I've been with you in sort of being skeptical of all the Taysom Hill hype, but I watch him each week and kind of think he's kind of good. I don't, I just, I hope he plays against the Chiefs. Like, I'm excited. Like, let me see him playing against a good team. All right, for this next one, you know what?

I don't know how to make this into an over-under, Jeff, so I'm just going to throw some teams at you and ask you if you might still be sort of a bit wrong about these teams. The Patriots, 6-6, destroyed the Chargers and your boy Herbert yesterday. You called them dead. So did I. So did everyone. Could they be alive?

Good question. They're not going to win many games with the quarterback throwing for 69 yards. So are they dead? No. But you can't score special teams three times every week. for 69 yards. So, are they dead? No. But, I mean, you can't score special teams three times every week.

So, I think it's going to be, they're not dead. And I think we were wrong on pronouncing them dead. But, speaking of the playoffs, the 17,

look, would the Chiefs want to play them in the first round of the playoffs? I don't think so. I don't think anyone wants to play them in the playoffs. But, I don't think that. I don't think anyone wants to play them in the playoffs. But I don't think that they're going to win a Super Bowl this year. But they're not dead.

I mean, it would be fun to watch down the stretch. I don't think anyone wants to play them. And I outlined it for you a week or two ago. Everyone on their schedule, Belichick can give himself a chip on his shoulder about playing that game. So they're playing Thursday. They play Thursday against the Rams back in L.A. That's a McVay revenge.

Then they're going, they're playing the Dolphins, Bills, Jets. They're going to need to win three of those four. Or all. If they win on Thursday, now they're a winning team. We know that he wants to beat Flores. We know that he wants revenge against the Bills. He doesn't even need to field a team to win week 17 against the

Jets. Suddenly, they won out. They're red hot going into the postseason. If Cam looks decent in any of those games, we're going to be talking about a cam newton led bill belichick team with 10 wins in the playoffs yeah no i i look the chiefs and the chiefs have always struggled against belichick he's been the best against against the chiefs of anybody they would hate to play him this is like the formula that that you'd hate which is good special teams right run the football control the clock limit your opportunities, play sound football. I think that when the season's over, we'll look back on this and be like, great job, Belichick.

All the opt-outs, Cam. I heard someone saying today, it may have been Sal or something, Cousin Sal was saying that it looks like he's spiking the football every time he throws it. I've thought that for a long time. He's so over the top. It's like the ball's coming straight down at the receiver. Yeah. And so it's,

it's, he's doing a job, man. Okay. You were not as harsh on the Rams. I think you were more just dismissive of them throughout the season. I, do we get to call them a Superbowl contender yet?

Um, throughout the season. Do we get to call them a Super Bowl contender yet? I think it's unfair to not call them that right now. I don't think they can do it, but I think the way they're playing, especially defensively, really, really well. I think offensively, they're still kind of the same, right? They have to be able to run the football to win. But defensively, they're definitely a Super Bowl-caliber defense. So I would say it would be unfair to call them to say they're not,

but I don't think they're going to win the Super Bowl. Okay. Well, it'll depend on their path, I think. If they can get lucky and, like, you know, dodge the hot teams and dodge the good teams and find themselves in the NFC Championship game and play one game lights out, boom, they're back in the Super Bowl. I think they need to win the West because you don't want to go in my opinion be the five seed and go january no you don't want that but well they're pretty well right they're both tied so

i would say that could happen yeah but it'd be different that doesn't look like the challenge it once looked like. Yeah. All right. So we're going to say the Rams are fringe Superbowl contender. Cause there's probably two NFC teams we think are better. This team is not a Superbowl contender, but also we talked about them earlier. We had them dead a few weeks ago and maybe,

maybe they're just good for your fantasy team. They got a lot of fantasy stars this year, but the Vikings are like a real offense. They just, they look, it looks tough watching them play. Like it just looks miserable. Jefferson Kidd is great, the wide receiver.

He's fabulous. They're not a Super Bowl contender, but I will say, I mean, I think I called for Zimmer to be fired. So definitely wrong on that. He's turned the table on this season, but they're not a Super Bowl contender, no. Yeah. Okay. And then we've touched on them

three or four times already but just to put a fine point on it are you sure the giants can't finish the season eight and eight yeah i i feel pretty good about that i mean i think seven and nine is probably their max you go four you go two and two last four games was about right that's what their schedule okay, you're talking about them. I'll tell you, are you ready for a week 17 primetime game, 820 p.m. Eastern?

Al Michaels, Chris Collinsworth, in the Meadowlands, Cowboys at Giants for the division. Yeah, man. And Steve Kornacki at halftime. What a treat that's going to be.

I am excited. So I currently don't have NBC right now because there's a dispute between two companies. And it's like, not NBC exactly, but whoever owns NBC here and DirecTV. So I don't have NBC. So last night, I had to watch a game on the Spanish language channel. So that worked, 410. So I was watching the game on the Spanish language channel. So that worked, 410. So I was watching it on the Spanish language channel, and then I paired up the Yahoo Sports app telecast for the audio.

So I basically paused the game until the audio matched up, and then I played my iPad with the audio so we could listen to Al and Chris call the game and muted the TV with a Spanish language broadcast. Considerably more effort than I would have predicted. Would you do that for any other team? My parents were here. My parents were here. So it was just me.

I just would have watched my iPad. By the way, I should have asked sooner. What's Mitch's status these days? I don't, I don't know. I got in trouble for mentioning that he was out once, even though he was literally out.

So I'm going to be quiet about my brother. I said he was out, even though he was literally listed as out, and just I'm just not going to talk about it. He'll be back at some point, hopefully. Let's talk about the Jets. I don't know how we got this far in the Open without making fun of them more. I don't want to talk about this season. We know they fired the defensive coordinator.

There are plenty of conspiracy theories about what he was asked to do what the players were doing out there lots of people think that they were tanking and that's why that bomb beat them no go ahead what what do you have to say about the jets before i ask my over under question all right so here's the thing about tanking i'll tell you guys just a thousand times tanking is done the off season by the roster decision. It's not done on Sundays. All right. Greg Williams is not tanking for next season. He is officially not even there for next season. Adam Gates is not either. That's what Greg Williams does. He blitzes a lot in situations. A terrible call. He should have done it it but that is um that's uh yeah so you don't think there's anyone who is trying to please the boss by making a ludicrous play call no you just think and i'll quote you on twitter you just think greg williams called a horseshit defense and that's all there is to it a thousand percent is what what he did. Well, hey, I don't think that the Jets are coordinated enough to have created a conspiracy

to tank that game. I think they just Jets their way to a loss. So I'm with you. Leads me to the question, how many wins will they have next year with a new coach and quarterback? The thing we've been waiting for for a couple of years now. We assume it's a total new look.

Lawrence is the QB. We got a real quarter, a real coach over under five and a half wins next year who I would stay I would say still under just because there's still work to do on the roster I feel like they're they

had some good pieces addition right McKay Becton great addition I want to see who they add in the off season to coach. Obviously they're going to draft Trevor Lawrence. I would just say, I just default to under five and a half wins. And that's what their win total will be set out.

It's what the Bengals was set out this year too. And the Bengals were looking to be under that win total, even if Burrow played all season. So I would say, I would say under for now, I could change my mind, obviously at some other point. I think it's going to, I think it's going to be that number. And I would take under for now, I could change my mind, obviously, at some other point. I think it's going to be that number.

And I would take the over because they're going to have players who opted out this year, including some good ones, come back. They have more cap room than most. And they've got all those picks. Plus a real coach and we think a real quarterback. It's got to be better. And they accidentally win six games most years anyway. So whatever.

All right, let's move to college football real quick. And then I have a bonus one that you don't know about. I want to know 95% chance or 95% certainty in the following four teams being in the college football playoff as of today. Bama, Notre Dame, Clemson, Ohio State. Those are the teams you're sure are in over under 95%. Oh, yeah, that's going to happen. Because, look, Clemson, well, no, I mean, it's not totally certain.

Notre Dame beats Clemson. It's a championship game. Clemson's out. But I think that's pretty much what we're looking at because Clemson should beat Notre Dame with Trevor Lawrence back in the lineup. Alabama's playing as best back in the lineup. Alabama's playing his best anyone in the country right now. Maybe Florida slows them down in this chance of game,

but I don't think they're going to lose that game. They could obviously, if they lose that game, they're out. But that's, that's easily the, the, the fortune. I thought you sneak USC in there.

Get out of here, buddy. I took a few notes. That's what you're looking at. Just so people understand. I'm betting on, I'm betting on UCLA to beat them this weekend, by the way. Screw you, man.

Hold on on USC. If Notre Dame loses to Clemson, okay, now you're sure Notre Dame still gets in with a recent loss on there ahead of A&M if they win the Big 12? You're sure of that? A&M plays in the SEC, but yes. Sorry. Sorry. If they win the sec

sorry yes you're sure a and m and florida aren't two teams that's what i wanted to get it that we need to talk about well if florida beats alabama in the sec championship game in florida so there's an upset if there's an upset in the sec championship game and clemson beats notre dame i'm not sure I'm willing to call that an upset, but now we have to choose between, we have two champs in and we have to choose between

Notre Dame and Bama with one loss in their championship game. One of them gets in and you think the loser is also in ahead of SC or Coastal Carolina or whoever? Notre Dame's one loss this year will be to Clemson.

And if that gets a touchdown, they're better than Coastal. They smashed Coastal. They probably beat A&M too. Yeah, I just think that in the end too, this is the television product, right? Notre Dame against Bama in the first game of a playoff, it would be much better sell than Bama against Coastal. Well, obviously, yeah. No, I think Coastal you just have to mention because you have to mention the undefeated team will beat the undefeated team. it would be much better sell than bam against coastal obviously yeah no i i think coastal you

just have to mention because you have to mention the undefeated team will beat the undefeated team but and you're sure still usc winning the pac-12 undefeated isn't enough no the patch was not getting anyone in um all right well we're gonna have to see what happens the sec i got my first look at florida this weekend i know it took me too long, but dude, that quarterback can play that receiver. What's his name? The tight end. That kid can move. Yeah, tight end.

Thank you. That guy's legit. Kyle Pitts. All right. Okay, bonus question, and I don't know if you've seen this yet. Percent chance I watch Recipe for Seduction on Lifetime this Sunday, 99.9% chance. Is this the one with Mario Lopez as like as the KFC dude? Mario Lopez playing Colonel Sanders

in some sort of murder drama on Lifetime. Oh my god. Are you going to watch this? Yes! Did you watch The Undoing yet? Yeah, I watched it. Didn't love it. The ending was very disappointing.

Did not love it and i'm sure it won't be as good as the colonel sanders movie starring mario lopez why did okay you're you're a tv movie media guy yeah the undoing okay why and how long has it been out for so spoiler if you're watching this shit if you're still listening to this show and you're getting upset with us about spoiling the undoing i don't know how you're living your life what why did they introduce the hammer in in the second last episode it was very clear once the hammer was introduced that he did it and the final episode was all about how they were going to show he did like why would it just felt like the last episode was a letdown because as soon as the hammer was found it was like yeah no shit he did it well i i'm with you

i think that's 20th on the list of nitpicks that people have had about the show i haven't heard any of these i want to hear that oh yeah well there's all kinds of kidman complaints uh you know my personal my personal take um is that all it was was one episode of law and order svu that somebody got their hands on and decided to stretch out into multiple episodes yeah that makes sense. Yeah, it's all it was. It was just Law and Order SVU. There's beat for beat, including the random fleeing of Manhattan and five minutes later

being on a bridge off the Hudson River up near, you know, Big Bear or Bear Mountain. Like that's not possible, people. But that's how Law and Order SVU always ends. This show sucked as far as I'm concerned. Oh, Nick, our producer Nick, that seems to not be in agreement with us on this. Why? What's his problem? How could he defend the undoing?

I don't know. Nick, you can defend the undoing. There's no argument for it being a good show. The first episode was really good. First two, and then I was like, just kind of got like i'll tell you what though my favorite character was was a defense attorney she was awesome yeah she was great again she was great if i'm watching law and order s for you i get that

whole thing in 42 minutes done and dusted moving on okay i want to hear the i want to hear the nicole kim and beefs real quick before you accent the accent was insane she does not sound like she lived on the Upper East Side of Manhattan she still sounds like she's from Australia I mean you know there's a lot going on with her her look and it was just a lot I don't want to so okay

so I don't know do your wife watch this with you yes okay so my wife could not get over the size of the apartment or condo that her dad lived in in manhattan like she talked about it a thousand times like look at those look at how those ceilings are didn't make any sense they're they're she's like where this i go it's it's central park you can see the probably park you see they get out the they got out one time and central park was across across the street. I go, what's your, every episode you asked me

about this dang apartment. It's fucking huge. They have money. Like, I get it, Meredith. We get that this, they have a lot of money. Like, why are you asking me about the dang apartment so much? Because I don't think that you can have ceilings that high

even in the nicest building on the Upper East Side of Manhattan. It just, I don't think it exists. She was so, but she doesn't think it exists. She was so, but she doesn't know that. She just was like, oh my God, that apartment must cost so much money. Yeah, it probably does. And then like the whole trying to figure out what the

dad did for a living. I didn't understand that. What was the dad's source of income? Um, I don't. And where was his accent from? Oh, okay. Nick's, our producer had his only beef was I don't know, any upper east side woman strolling in Harlem at night to take a breather. Well, she's very close.

She's very, see again, she's very close to Harlem where she lives. If you look at them out the window of their apartment, they're clearly at the northern end of Central Park on the east side, looking back to the southwest. So they're up near the mirror, whatever it's called, like big lake. So you could stroll your way to Harlem, but he's right. I don't think any woman living in that building heads north instead of south on a stroll. I love how this podcast has devolved into a California guy, a New York guy. I don't even know.

Nick, are you Nick from New York? I guess he is. What's this school with the kids in this thing? Like all his friends are living in these apartments. Oh, Nick's a Reardon kid. Talking about where exactly. You are going to stroll in Spanish Harlem to clear your head. He is an authority on what it would be like to go to that private school i don't know which area of the city he lived in but he is aware of these kids

i love how how this is like his life he's so he's so like oh this is great i did not know this i'm look jess worked smarter than you many football things obviously not uh for the undoing but nonetheless um fabulous. Fabulous. I need a new show. Well, let's watch Recipe for Seduction after football this Sunday, and we'll come back in here and we'll talk about it next Monday. We'll get people smarter on that. Maybe I'll be going for punishment if we could do that.

Okay. Done. All right. This show has been fantastic. Who would have known we ended up with talking about the undoing and Spanish Harlem and Nicole Kidman and Hugh Grant and that show and the money that I just kept. Kiefer Sutherland's like his eyebrows. Yeah, he's letting them go.

Just whatever. All right, guys. This has been fabulous. Have a great couple of days. We're back. We went another winning week. What? Donald, not Kiefer.

Donald, the other Sutherland. I think it's close enough. All right, guys. It's close to 35 years off. This is bad. All right. Have a great couple of days. Talk to everyone later.