Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Super Bowl Gambling Bonanza

Episode Date: February 10, 2022

Geoff and Matt are back for their best episode of the year. They break down their favorite player props, their predictions for who will win, and what the game script will look like. And then Geoff lets the viewers in on a few insights for the more ridiculous props - Gatorade color and halftime performances. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday february 10th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz are smart on you powered by the varsity podcast network we're here in los angeles and we're here to talk about the big game this weekend the super bowl between the bangles and the rams and we're here to talk about it matt as we do through the lens of sports wagering and gambling buddy how are you doing i'm good good, Jeff. Last night we had a dinner together. Trey Wingo was involved. Trey Wingo's son was involved.

Other production staff, Nick was involved. Gabe was there. It was a great night. But Jeff, you're reeling today because we were out past your bedtime. We were out very much past my bedtime and then I had a full day of radio row. I will say I will give Nick credit because Nick ordered a lot of great food for us. I was very impressed with the food that was ordered for the table.

There was a toast given about how much money a certain podcast makes. And it clearly wasn't my podcast. So that was a lot of fun. But the food was delicious. Yes, I went to bed past my bedtime, but I'm here today to talk to you guys about this game. It's very worth it, of course, because of the big game we have this weekend.

So, Matt, how are we going to do this wagering show? Well, Jeff, in the spirit of the show that we do for most of the season, Nick and I thought that it might be fun to try to convince each other what to bet on together. I know that you have some opinions. I certainly have some. Why don't we say we have $1,000 and you and I have to convince each other on how we're going to spend it. Obviously, I think that we should consider just betting straight up the spread.

We can obviously add to that. But in a world where we have $1,000 total as our bank roll, let's figure out what we want to bet on and how we want to divide it. Sounds perfect. And of course, there's many things to wager on. I think if I'm correct on this, we've limited these wagers to legal sports books in America, because I know that there's offshores and some of the offshores, and we're not sponsored by anybody, but some of the offshores offer wagers that you cannot get in America. So we're going to stay away from a lot of those.

And we'll just give you what the consensus is for a lot of these lines. And let's start with the Cincinnati Bengals, who, once again, I'm shocked to hear, but here they are, Matt. They're here, Jeff. I spent a lot of time this last week and a half, I'm sure you have too, I spent a lot of time this last week and a half, I'm sure you have too, trying to come up with some case to make so that the Bengals would at least warrant a possible pick for you. Have you gotten there? Are you ready to say that the Bengals might have a shot in this game? Or are you still – what's your take?

Of course they have a shot in this game. The question is can they win the game or can they cover the game from our perspective of 4-4.5? And there definitely is a real factor to Joe Burrow being Joe Cool, right? To being Joe Burrow. Like, that he exudes his confidence, allows his team to play better than they have been. But they're just not as good as the Rams. Like, it's that simple, right? I mean, the Rams, you know, okay, quarterback, right?

Matt Stafford has played better than Joe Burrow in the playoffs so far. I'm not saying he's better. He's played better than Joe Burrow. Rams offensive line is better. Yeah, Jamar Chase is great. Cooper Cupp is the best wide receiver in the NFL, right? Yes, Boyd and Higgins are probably better than Odell and that weird white dude's name.

I don't even know his name. The one who dropped the touchdown pass. Okay, fine. But Odell's been a playmaker, right? What? Not Cooper Cuff. No. But Odell's pretty good, right?

Tied in, obviously, both guys are hurt. Kind of a wash. Defensive line, strong advantage to the Rams. Secondary, strong advantage to the Rams. Coaching, strong advantage to the Rams. Coaching, strong advantage to the Rams. Remember, McVay lost this game, what, four years ago now? And he said that he was too overprepared, right? He put too much into kind of the stock of Bill Belichick and what he can do on defense. They're going to come with a simplified game plan, Matt, that's going to attack the weaknesses of

the Bengals. And they're better. And the Bengals have had a lot of instances, and it's fair to say this, guys, luck is part of it. They've had a lot of instances. And it's fair to say this guy's luck is part of it. We've had a lot of luck. And I think it runs out this weekend. Do you have any other thoughts? We'll save our eventual pick to the end of the show, but do you have any thoughts on, on this game right now?

As far as the Bengals side, I mean, it honestly, I saw this meme that I think I shared on our group text where it was like all the things that the Rams do better than the Bengals. And then that's the case for how the Rams win this game. And then there's the Bengals case. And it's just Joe Burrow.

And I think that if and it's fair, like the guy has just been incredible. I think that as fans, we do this thing where we say, hey, this is now reality. Like we get very hopeful. We all get very caught up in the moment and now people are saying like maybe joe burrow is the best quarterback of the young quarterbacks it's like maybe he is and if he wins this game on sunday that you could probably argue that you know maybe he belongs in the same category as mahomes and alan and herbert already passed over in my opinion. But we'll see.

Having said that, if you like the Bengals in this, I think the best way to play it from a betting perspective is to take Joe Burrow to win the MVP of this game. You can get around plus 200 for that. Maybe they would say Jamar Chase would win it if he goes crazy, but I still think that if he goes off for 300 yards, they're still going to give it to Burrow, right? think that if he goes off for 300 yards they're still going to give it to burrow right who would presumably have gone off for 400 plus um i think you know it's probably like we'll get to the rams in a second but like i doubt that like trey hendrickson

would win this award even if he has like three or four sacks maybe there's always the possibility that a mix-in or some other random person could really go off. But the path to victory for the Bengals probably means Joe Burrow plays out of his mind. And if they win, the media is ready to coronate that guy. So I think that if that's your angle and you lay it on Joe Burrow for plus 200 or so to win MVP. I think you're exactly right. That is the way to play it for the Bengals. Of course, in the Super Bowl too, it's very smart, I think, to just take the money line for the $100 if you like the Bengals. Like don't lay the four and a half. Just take them on the money line, right?

Because they're either probably going to win the game or lose by 10. That's kind of where you're at. I think with that as far as specifically towards, you know, what your side or total or money line is, take the Bengals on the money line if you think they're going to keep this game close. Yeah, and most of the time, whoever covers in the Super Bowl tends to win, even if they're underdogs. So there's rarely a, like, you know, the Rams probably don't win by three.

That's like an unlikely outcome given the history. It's either the Rams win by more than four or four and a half or the Bengals flat out lose by more than that. So I'm with you. I think, look, I have a player prop or the Bengals flat out lose by more than that. So I'm with you. I think – look, I have a player prop for the Bengals that I actually really like, but I don't think that they're – they're not going to be some – I'm not going to invest a ton in them in this game. Yeah, I have some ideas on what I think we can spend our money on,

and let's get right into it. Yeah, okay. Give me – you got one Bengals related? Yeah, I really like Joe Burrow's over passing yards. I believe it's 285 and a half. Is that what you see as well for his passing yards? That's, I think, what I had earlier in the week. I got to make sure that I have the right number here.

So here's the reason why. You know, people might think it's counterintuitive to think the Bengals might struggle on offense, which I think they will, and take Joe Burrow's passing yard total over. But here's the reason why. Do you remember the Titans game? Nine sacks.

He was sacked nine times, right? And they scored 16 points, one off at the touchdown. Matt, if you were to guess how many passing yards Joe Burrow had against the Titans, in a game they scored 16 points, one off at the touchdown. Matt, if you were to guess how many passing yards Joe Burrow had against the Titans in a game, they scored 16 points and really struggled to move the ball on offense. What would your guess be? You guess something with a two in front of it, probably 240. Yeah. So he had 348 yards in that game passing. And here's the reason why. Just listen to this. Just pay attention.

This is the way that I think about this wager. And I can't, my internet's being slow. I don't know what number. I think I saw 275 and a half earlier in the week. Maybe it's moved a little bit. Is because they're going to get sacked so much, it's going to make first and 10, second and 18. And second and 18 means he has more yards to pass for

than the 10 he was basically afforded on first and 10. So let's say he goes backwards on first down, second and 18. Now he throws for seven yards, right? Now it's third and 11. He completes a 12-yard pass. That's what? That's what? That's 19 yards instead of 10,

and they're back to the spot they were if they just got 11 yards on first and 10. That's how he got that many yards in that Titans game. And I think in the same situation, I don't think the Bengals are going to score very much, but I think in this situation, that thing is going to happen. He's going to be behind so much of the sticks. He's going to have to throw the ball a bunch. Yeah, 275 and a half is what I see. But I think he'll go over that number because of the sacks he's going to take. Interesting. So I have a similar read on this game and a lot of similar reads on this game

in terms of how it'll play out i think one way that you can play this is uh i'm really interested in samajay p ryan props i know that's a little bit off menu but one of the things that really caught my attention was um in the regular season the bangles did a little bit more of a backfield by committee uh as the downs progressed like mix and obviously is their bell cow but in the last couple weeks p ryan has played uh according to pff over 73 percent of the third down snaps and he had that that big screen uh i guess it was a conference championship and he had that one that romo called out or he was like if he just leaked out to the side he would have you know 40 yard touchdown they've've got something going with the screen game. There's a lot of ways to play this.

There's one, I think, P. Ryan's reception. I think you can get it at over under 1.5. You can also get his total rushing and receiving yards over 20.5. I think I like the reception's prop better because I think they're just going to end up dumping it out quite a bit based on exactly what was the number for the receiving? The last I saw was one and a half.

Receptions or receiving yards? Receptions, which I like. I think he's going to get more than that in targets. But I think Piran's going to be one of those guys that you don't really think about and then all of a sudden you're like, he has like 40 rushing yards and four catches um i think that's a sneaky way to get some action and you don't have to lay it all on jason burrow yeah um i like that a lot um i i

was leaning toward like the joe mixon under for his rushing yards because i just don't think he rushes the ball very well in this game right he's been he was under um i think it was uh near 60 yards he was under that against the raiders and the thaians remember he got 88 against the chiefs but he got i think 17 or 18 of those um in uh you know on in overtime like that that wasn't what he had done well in that game we saw in in game one where i mean not in the chiefs game i should say where they tried to run the ball to keep it out of basically burrow's hands. So they have to pass practice often. But the Pirine one's pretty interesting.

So you said one over one and a half. So add that to the list of… Caesars is one and a half. NGM, one and a half. Well, we'll leave that on the board here. Can I interest you in another prop for this game for the Bengals? Please. Okay.

So I really like Boyd over 40.5 receiving yards. He has not been to that total very often. I think the last four weeks he's actually been under that total. The previous four weeks, though, he was over that total by a lot. But here's why I like this prop. So the Rams' defense is soft in the middle. They allow a lot of yards, short intermediate over the middle of the field. And without C.J. Uzama probably healthy,

he's going to probably play for the Bengals. They're tight end. They need someone to fill that void. Okay? And just to give you the numbers here, the Rams finished the season ranked 29th in dvoa and stopping passes over the short middle of the field um and since week seven how about this matt the bangles combination of joe burrow and tyler boyd in the short middle of the field has that connection

ranked first in completion percentage yards per, passer rating in that span. So Joe Burrow and Tyler Boyd are very good at short intermediate passes. The Rams are bad defending that. I get 40 and a half. I think the Rams try to take away Jamar Chase. I feel like this is a good number here. That's really interesting. So Tyler Boyd is, I feel like I'm the lone fan of Tyler Boyd like on earth. The guy gets a ton of targets.

They don't net out a bunch of yards. He had a stretch this season where he had a touchdown in four straight games. He's really good. He's just on a team where he's in the slot with two other awesome huge receivers who get the ball a lot. I like this. You assume that the Rams are probably going to stick Jalen Ramsey on chase and just sort of let those two battle it out, which would be awesome. And then sort of

say like, okay, T. Higgins and Tyler Boyd try to beat us. And they might. Tyler Boyd's really good. I feel like I have lots of Super Bowl memories of some random third receiver going crazy. I don't think it's a bad play. Last week he had six targets. Most of his games he has over five targets this year. So it's just a matter of time before he pops one. I think it's a little bit of a high number,

but you have to figure the Bengals are going to be throwing it a lot. So I'm fine with that. Yeah, I like that one as well. There's also interesting here for Evanan mcpherson for field goals made or attempted right so and the numbers aren't aren't great here but the the bangles have five offensive touchdowns in the playoffs and 12 field goals they've had four i think four in each game something like crazy like that right so right now evan mcpherson points, 7.5 points, okay? Minus 120 over, under minus 110. I'd lay the minus 120 on over 7.5 points. So that means three field goals or two field goals and two touchdowns.

Does that feel right? Because the numbers for the over 1.5 is minus 155. That's too much juice to be laying on that prop. Let's see. So what's the... I will say Fox Bet. Total kicking points. Fox Bet, by the way, has over three and a half field goals at like plus like 150.

Huh. Caesars has two and a half at plus 140 for McPherson. That's pretty interesting. Wow. They also have total points for McPherson. That's pretty interesting. Wow. They also have total points for McPherson at 7.5. Over 2.5 plus what? Plus 140.

Wow, okay. Sorry, that's extra points. Field goals is 1.5. Yeah, my mistake. Field goals they have at over under 1.5 with the overjuice pretty significantly, minus 150. So 7.5 points minus 120 over is the best wager for him if you're looking for one. Interesting.

I have a feeling like you are going to see a lot of field goals in this. I have a feeling that I want to get to the game script a little bit. And this isn't a Rams-related one. So let me just say that. Why don't we move on to the Rams and talk about some specifics there? And then, by the way, we'll come back and decide which ones we're going to end up taking here. Yeah. And I have a bunch of ones related to just game flow and all that stuff, too.

But why don't we get to the second team here? The Rams, I mean, you look at this team and they are loaded. Throughout the playoffs, I think we sort of picked with them. We picked against them. I picked San Francisco last week or two weeks ago to cover. They did, but I definitely thought they would beat the Rams. But now that they're here, it doesn't feel all that surprising, right? You look at their roster and you're like, yeah, they kind of belong here.

It kind of makes sense. It does make sense. And, of course, you know, the thing is I just don't know if I trust Matt Stafford, but he's making me look stupid because he keeps winning these games and playing well. Now, he did get bailed out by a drop to interception last weekend. But, you know, they are a very talented team, right? They have a lot of talent on their roster. Don't have a lot of depth, but their talent is immense, right?

Look at Angie Whitworth and Matt Stafford and cooper cup and odell and acres and sony michelle and then you look at and then you look at on the defense right donald and and and miller and floyd and ramsey and eric weddle who came out of retirements playing well they're just a very very talented team but i don't feel great about a lot of their props this week though like i don't have a great feel for because i think the rams and this is some of the issues with with picking these props they can do a lot of things with a lot of different guys but i feel comfortable you know taking cooper cup over 107.5 you know receiving yards like bet the over on cup like just that feels always smart to do yeah Yeah. That makes sense.

A lot of, I read somewhere that there's more exposure on cup to get a touchdown at sports books than there is on the actual game. Like, because they're getting so many bets to the yes, that they're so overexposed on that. So be aware of that. That could be a little bit of a public thing that you could fall into.

I personally, Jeff, I'm going to give you my, I'm going to give you my favorite player-specific play here. I thought I'd impress you with my Samadji Pirine take. I don't think you're getting that on many other podcasts. I think that the play for this game is Aaron Donald to win Super Bowl MVP plus $1,600. So here's why.

Best player on the field, number one. No disrespect to anybody else. There's a lot of great players on the field. Aaron Donald is in a class of his own. You could argue he's the best player in the NFL. People do. The problem that the Bengals have in this game, their biggest weakness, offensive line, right?

So this could be one of those games. Remember, Joe Burrow got sacked nine times in that Tennessee game you already mentioned they're not going to be able to block Aaron Donald at any point in this game and he could do something insane he could have an interception he could have two sacks he could have five sacks the upside for him is insane then if you actually look at if the Rams so so if you're picking him, you're assuming the Rams win. So if you're assuming the Rams win, what are the odds that somebody else on the team gets it? So there are a lot of, you know,

it's most likely going to be Stafford if the Rams end up winning, but you could say that this boat could get split between cup and Stafford, right? Like if cup has a good game, not an amazing game. And Stafford has a good solid game, but Donald has two or three sacks. They might pick Donald. Like he might have the signature play of this game. I think for those odds, if you're going to pick a player, you're either picking a quarterback or you're going way down the line and picking somebody who gives you great odds. It's most likely going to be Stafford. It's second most likely, I think, going to be Cup if the Rams win. But Donald, for plus 1,600, I think it's a really good bet.

What would Donald have to do in this game to get that MVP? Three sacks. Three sacks. Safety. Three sacks, yeah. Sack fumble. The Bengals, by the way, gave up an average of three sacks in the game. They gave up 55 this year in the regular season,

and they just had a game where they gave up nine. And, you know, it's not like the Tennessee front four is a bunch of household names. He could go crazy in this game. Like, he honestly could. He could – this could be the game that he just explodes. I think this is not a bad wager if we're looking at, obviously, you know, what – that's interesting. What could happen – that would that would definitely

be unique if that happened it could though right i mean if it's a if it's a defensive blowout burrow doesn't do anything if it's like a 16 to 3 game or something um and donald has three sacks it could happen what that's plus 1600 you said yeah i mean on. Plus 1,600? That seems insane to me. I like that one. How about this, though? A safety happening is plus 750. What about this scenario? Johnny Hecker pins the Bengals deep, and Aaron Donald gets a safety.

Very possible. Very possible. I mean, there was a run where there were two years in a row where there was a safety right there was a bunch of people made money off of that prop i remember that was like one of those twitter bingos where someone would be like i bet it plus 700 it's right here i'm reading the article right here it was it was the seahawks denver game there it was a 201 bet slip for safety on the first play and some people and that was the first play was a safety wow that's right yeah that was that was insane when that happened um that's a rare bird i've

i tend to i don't know you could even the donald thing is a little bit absurd like some of these you just kind of you have to just sort of say i'm just gonna have some fun and take a flyer on some of these yes but yeah that would that would certainly be one of them. Okay. So anything else? I wouldn't – so I would go for – I would go okay with Matt Stafford's over for his passing yard as well. Okay. Talk us through that.

I just think they're going to – I mean, we saw Matt Mahomes in the first half of that game. I just think that the Bengals are susceptible to big plays against the Rams. And I see Stafford wanting and McVay wanting him to control this game with his arm. Yeah, I definitely could. I was listening to our friends on the Action Network show, The Favorites, and they were talking about taking first play. Chris Rabon, our buddy, said to take first play pass for the Rams.

They tend to pass a lot on the opening play of the game. You could see Matthew Stafford coming out hot, like give him a chance to sort of put away all the doubt about him early. I could see McVay doing that. What was first play odds? First play odds, let's see. Probably minus 110. I mean, it can't be that.

They're not going to be that. Gosh. I'll have to look for it. I thought that was an interesting way to put it. All right. So we have all these that we've written down. I still have more, though. Oh, continue.

I still have more that I want to do. Okay, continue. One of them is related to the first play, and it's actually a first quarter play. So I like the under in this game generally um i might be spoiling us a little bit um so let me start there and then let's go from there uh the under in this game we've got some jeff ford's classic a little reverse line movement uh open at 49 and a half we've got a majority 61 of the bets are on the over but the line moved down it's a 48.5.

The split is remarkable. It's a total pros-Joes thing. You always want to be on the side of the pros. So I like the under, and if that's going to happen. First quarter under. First quarter under. That's right. The last – Cincy, by the way, has gone under in four of the last five games.

In the Super Bowl, I think in the last, I want to say, 41 meetings, it meetings it's gone under because tom brady's been a half of those and he hasn't scored a point in the first quarter till last season exactly yeah so most of the time at two-thirds of the time it's going under in the first quarter um i also think i like the rams you can take the rams outright to just win the first quarter you it's one of those three-way bets where you can bet on the tie for like plus the ties like plus 385 i think the rams just to win the first quarter are it's about even money it's a little it's like plus 105 i think um i think that's a pretty good way to play this if you if you're buying the under you're probably thinking hey maybe the rams come out and get up like three nothing six nothing something like that what's rams first quarter what do you have that um that's a three

way so it's not like a money line but i think that's the way to do it if you you know you could get killed on the tie but i think you can get it like plus 105 okay first quarter i don't know if you if you guys ever just if you're if anyone just like wants to find all these props just sitting around caesar's put out their giant menu with 17 pages of bets. So that's why I keep scrolling here. But first quarter, Moneyline Rams plus 102, Bengals plus 155, tie plus 325. So I'm willing to risk it on the three-way. What do you think of that?

So what would have to happen for the three-way? You don't push. So that's why you get a little bit of extra benefit. So if there's a tie, if it's 0-0 or 10-10 or whatever, you lose. Oh, okay. Oh, interesting. Yeah. I wouldn't mind that.

Okay. Anything else you want to mention before we go through these? You can also get Rams to score first and Rams to win plus 105. That's another way you could do that. That's another Caesars one. But, yeah, that was what I wanted to do in terms of game script. What else do you got before we get to some weird stuff?

I don't have many of them. I feel like the props market now is tough to do because everyone else is doing it. Yeah. All right, so we have basically $750 to spend. We're spending $250 on the game. What do you want to do for the overall game? You want to take the under? I mean, are we taking the Rams? Should we do that? I want to do Rams money line. Money line Rams. Okay. Why not lay the four and a half we taking the Rams? Should we do that? I want to do Rams money line. Money line Rams.

Okay. Why not lay the four and a half? Or the four? You want to lay four? I mean, most of the time, like I said, if you're covering, you're winning. So Rams minus four for 250. Okay. Done.

I'm with you. I'm on the Rams. I made this very clear where I'm at. I'm 0 for three, though, on the Bengals. So take it for what you want guys but i i'm i maybe i'm maybe jeff schwartz is not smarter than everyone else but i'm going i'm going to this as well going to the well with this okay so i for the bangles props i really like my boyd and burrow props burrowrow over and Boyd over. You like the Pyramid one, right? I like Piranha a lot.

Piranha, I should say. So do you want to do 100 on each of those? Let's do that. Yep. Okay. So we're at 550 now? Yeah.

Do you want to do 50 on Donald to win MVP? Yep, I like that. To win 800? I like that. Okay. So now we're at 600, right? So we have 400 left.

Should we do the under? That's not in there yet, right? The game under? First quarter under. What's the game under? 48 and a half is the total. What's the first quarter under? First quarter.

First quarter. First half total points. My God, you should just see. I don't know if you've looked at this thing. The first quarter total is probably 10.5, 9.5. Well, if we can't find it quickly, maybe we should put a pin in it. Maybe we should. Normally, they're pretty handy with what these are.

Why don't we maybe save some money here? Because there are the other things, including my favorite Jeff Schwartz bet of every single season. So we have $400 left. We've got to put something on the Rams, though, don't we? We did, right? We took them minus four, right? Oh, I see. First quarter, nine and a half is what it's at.

Nine and a half. Man, that is so low. Right? I'd rather take you want to take Rams half a point and minus 110 for the first quarter or you want to do the Rams win the first quarter, win the game. Let's do that one. Let's do that.

That's plus 105. Okay. For 100? Sure. That's a fun one. We have 300 bucks have 300 bucks left so let's uh let's continue down the line here all right so now we venture into the territory of if you're betting on this like you probably are just doing it for fun these are the 10 bets or the 20 you know pull with your buddies but we do have to talk about my favorite thing that you talk about every year which is of course what color the gatorade will be yes if uh you could bet on that i want to give the odds here

and jeff you explain this to me once and i make you redo it every year as long time fans of the show will know um the colors this year i just lost them why don't you. Why don't you explain it while I look up the problem? So most often they try to match the Gatorade color with sort of the jersey you're wearing. Most often if it's the white jersey. So what happens if the Rams are wearing their white jersey and they use like orange or red, it's going to stay in the jersey. As guys are drinking, it's going to dribble all over the jersey, okay?

Now, there are multi different, there are a bunch of colors that they give. They don't typically just use one color. So it's not a standalone. But it is interesting. Like for example, Kansas City is red, right? In the Super Bowl, they had orange. So that's pretty close, right? Like it's pretty,

it's a color that doesn't really run the patriots have always gone with like blue some like weirdly like blue obviously sometimes they were white sometimes they were dark but blue kind of matches like if it if blue were to stay in their uniform it looked like their pants right blue it makes sense um you know eagles were yellow green green and yellow. Like, kind of like, it sort of makes it, the Broncos were orange, by the way. Giants were purple and clear. Like, so it kind of matches. So if you're looking at the winner of this game and you think the Rams are going to win this game, you're probably thinking like a yellow, green, clear clear gray white plus one plus 450 yeah

so that's probably what you want to do um oddly orange is uh is sort of the favorite it looks like in a lot of these books that means the team probably bagels are going to win right or they just assume it's very it's a very common one but orange has only been used well one two three four five it's been like the favorite for a while yeah it's been five times this is why i love talking to you about this you are the expert on how to bet the gatorade at the super bowl it's one of my favorite things about doing the show with you um but i think what this means is you can rule out probably like purple you could rule out blue i guess i You could rule out blue, I guess. I mean, maybe the Rams, I guess, would do that.

But I have a feeling, right, if you maybe want to go with the clear, which I think is a good bet no matter what, and then that lime, yellow, green. I love they don't specify because it's probably like so tough to define. So do you want to put $50 on each of those? The yellow, green, lime plus $450. We have to. And clear gray, white plus, so put $50 on each one?

We have to. It's the spirit of our show. Okay. So we have $200 left, I believe. Yep. Do you want to give a take on either the anthem or first song played? I know it's hard to find some of these wagers. This is one where we kind of venture away from the American sports books, right?

Because I don't think they offer an anthem total, at least not yet. Do you have a lean for the anthem? Yeah. So what number are we getting here? I don't, again, I don't think they give us a number. Like I think this is not, there's there's no american books i think that have uh that have this number yeah so it's the reason is because people know there is actual information out there if you you know if you know something about like this broadcast there is information

about the length of the anthem i don't i think if you're seeing 130 you should probably go over um the line that i saw that everyone had was 95 seconds. I have a feeling it's going to go over. Okay. The halftime show is interesting, right? Like a lot of people are speculating. Maybe they start with a little California love situation. Like maybe Tupac will be involved.

We've got this here. Where is it? They have Mary J. Bl first first to sing at plus 170 i think that's dre or snoop i think you're gonna be right and if you look at there's there's a line and we've got in here what's the first song performed at the halftime show um it's pretty it's pretty heavily tilted towards like towards eminem at least in this line um I have a feeling it's going to be some combo of of Dre and Snoop I think you're right I think you could probably look at a list of like what their songs are and pick one of those personally Jeff I think

I think you could probably you could probably lean on that and I'd be willing to put some money down on uh on one of the on those guys maybe coming up so we put 50 bucks on each snoop and dray to perform first is there something where it's like multiple guests at once is that an option out there i'm trying to find again these are these are kind of offshore numbers now i'm trying to find them i don't really know let me look at this yeah it's hard to find these um so you could bet the number of songs yeah we've got who will perform first Dr. Dre is the short favorite I think that's probably right it's not going to be it's going to be someone from LA right like that's who they got to send out

it has to be so what's that at we've got Dr. Dre at plus 150 to come out first how much you want to put on that I feel pretty confident in that you want to put on that? I feel pretty confident in that. How much do we got left? You want to put $100 on that? Sure.

Okay. That line's also moved down if you're interested. That one's moved from plus 505 down to keys to favorite. Oh, interesting. Which is noteworthy. Here's one that there is no way to predict this based on any information out there. I just think this is a fun way to play the super bowl jeff what will be the jersey number of the first player to score a

touchdown and you can go one to nine ten to twenty twenty one to thirty or eighty one to ninety um so the way that you would do this jeff is basically like one through nine is both quarterbacks chase beckham jalen ramsey i guess um that's the favorite but i kind of like 21 to 30 to score the first touchdown that's all the running backs um i think that that's like a decent way to play that you can get that at plus 250 i'm curious if you think that's a fun way to put it what time would you say something I think 21 to 30 is going to score the first touchdown. Probably a rushing touchdown. I think, you know, if it gets to a goal line situation, they keep it kind of straight and they maybe just don't hand it off.

I'm good with that. How much do you want to put on that? How much we got left? I think we got 100 left. You got any more weird ones? No, I'm trying to make the Dr. Dre wager right now. I tried to bet $50. $ager right now and i try to bet 50 dollars 50 whole dollars and the limit is 25 oh really yes

that's awesome what do you think the first song is going to be i think it's going to be the next episode i think that's what it's going to be california love is minus 130 is a favorite oh if it's next episode wait so then dre's going to speak first but snoop's going to be. California Love is minus 130 as a favorite. Oh, if it's next episode. So then Dre's going to speak first, but Snoop's going to be the first song? Is that a Dre? I mean, that's a Dre song, right? It's both. It's just got such a memorable intro.

It's funny. It says next episode Snoop for some reason. I don't really get that. That's very confusing. That's why I was like, that's not Snoop. You're right. That is Dre. Why would it say next episode would be Snoop i don't know now i'm kind of afraid afraid

to make this wager i mean we could always put more money on the game that we can actually like talk about smartly i'm kind of you know now i'm curious about who speaks first on this on this uh song yeah so snoop yeah snoop is i think first on this, first on the lyrics for this song. Huh. Oh. Interesting. This is going to be – okay. All right.

Well, I think we have – who knows? Who knows how much money we have left? I don't know, Nick. Does anyone know how much money – it doesn't even matter at this point. Why don't we lay something on your Ivan McPherson prop and call it a day here? Okay. Whatever's left – you guys can do the math on this, whatever's left, over

7.5 points to Evan McPherson minus 120. I think we have I don't know, 50 bucks, 100 bucks left. We're off the rails now. I'm delirious from overeating and no sleeping. I'm ready for this game to happen.

Look, man, I just come back to this, Matt, is that in the end, it's just really hard for me to believe an offensive line is an offensive lineman, right? Is going to not matter in this game, right? It's really hard for me to do that. And when you look at

the Bengals, man, I just can't see it not mattering. I can't, buddy. And that's a holdup for me. It's really hard for me to believe that it doesn't matter. It's sort of going to be forgotten if the Bengals win. But it is so improbable that they're here, to their credit. Other than the Kurt Warner Rams where Trent Green got hurt in a preseason game. And they were, I think, plus 1,500 in the preseason

to win the Super Bowl in 1999. So were the Bengals. They were something around the 1,500-2,000 range preseason. This would be one of the most unlikely Super Bowl wins of all time. They've gotten through the Chiefs. The Titans, which was not this huge of an upset as the Chiefs. It would be a tremendous surprise if the Bengals won this game based on history. I think the Rams are the smart play. They're playing at home. It's going to be crazy hot,

which is a thing that is going to be interesting. The Bengals probably aren't going to be super conditioned to that after playing in Kansas City and Tennessee and the AFC North all season. They're going to probably be dealing with 85 or 90 degree temperatures here. So I think that favors the Rams too. But I'll bet the Rams but I'm rooting for Cincy, man. This is a great story. It's supposed to be the hottest kickoff

in Super Bowl history. Yeah, I mean, how does that affect the game? That's a nightmare for... They have that weird roof on top. Who knows? Yeah. But you would think that would benefit LA who just played here two ago, and it was in the 60s or 70s. Yeah, probably. Yeah.

I would imagine that. All right. I am going to go have dinner by myself. I cannot wait. I'm going to bring my iPad. I'm going to eat a quiet dinner at a restaurant by myself. Hopefully no one sees me. That might be embarrassing, but I don't care.

It's 4 o'clock Pacific time right now. Jeff is going to dinner. I just want to put that out there. Probably, yeah, in the next couple minutes. Alright, guys. Well, we had a fun ride. It's been, from a wager perspective, a bad postseason. We hope to turn that around. Hope we had some fun for you guys in this episode

and let me know what your wager on. At Jeff Schwartz on Twitter. We're powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. We'll talk to you on Monday, excuse me, on Tuesday after the big game on Sunday. Have a great weekend, everyone. Talk to you guys then. See you, buddy.