Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Super Bowl Preview! Geoff Schwartz's Best Bets and Props

Episode Date: February 7, 2025

Geoff and Matt preview Super Bowl LIX, facing off against Jaxon in the final game of the year. Should you bet big on Saquon and Kelce? What 10-1 prop does Matt like? Finally - Geoff explains the logic behind betting the Gatorade bath. Listen to us on Cooler and subscribe to Pine sports using promo code "Geoff" for 50% off!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It is Friday, February 7th. I am Jeff Schwartz. I've been talking for 72 hours in a row. We're going to finish this podcast strong. Matt Ford is here as well. It's your bowl Sunday. I'm down in New Orleans behind the scenes. So I worked this morning for my Bear Bets podcast. I just did two hours of radio on VeeSin. I had not much to eat between the show. I ran downstairs and I got a bowl a visa and I had not much to eat between this show. I ran downstairs and I got a bowl of gumbo downstairs at the hotel bar, smashed the gumbo. It's a barbecue shrimp. I'm fired up now to do this show. What we are going to do, which is this Sunday, is we're going to go over the entire game first, our thoughts

about the game in general. We'll throw props at you as we go. Then at the very end, like we normally do, give your five favorite wagers with the help of Applying Sports, the great AI tool that we use here. Matt texted me earlier this week, hey Schwartz, I don't know if he called me Schwartz, but I'm guessing he said Schwartz in his head. Hey, actually Matt calls me Jeff, I think.

Jeff, okay? Most people call me Schwartz, you call me Jeff. Jeff, I'm having too much fun with Pine Sports. I'm making too many wagers. They're helping me out too much. Go to pine sports.com slash subscribe, put in the promo code Jeff. You get 50% off your first month.

It is a great tool to use to help you prepare your wagers. You go, you type in the Jackson tool. Is it Jackson on? Jackson, I always forget how to say it, Matt. I think we decided to do it French, like Jackson. Jacksonon! That's up for interpretation. Jacksonon!

Jackson, I think, is the right name. You type in, like, will Patrick Mahomes have more pass attempts? Or how many pass attempts will Patrick Mahomes have? How many sacks is Patrick Mahomes gonna have? Tell me if Patrick Mahomes is coming from behind. It pops that answer for you, there's also tabs for NBA player prompts.

We get to NBA, if you took LeBron over points, remember, it's just last night, good for you. He had about 60 of them, hockey as well, and major league baseball, so we get to the baseball season, you could use Pine Sports to help you out there. So throughout the show, we'll talk about our research there and then at the very end,

we'll give you our five favorite wagers and we'll give you a Pine Sports five wagers. We'll hope to make you money over those 15 wagers, Matt. I've talked about this game a lot this week, as we have mentioned, I can't wait to get here on Sunday. Look, when the game is over and the Chiefs have won, I will be happy that I have a Chiefs ticket in my pocket for them to win this game on the Moneyline.

If the Eagles win, which is certainly possible, they're a great football team, I'll be like, oh cool, the Chiefs finally lost, but at least I have the Chiefs. I just, if you are betting this game and you don't have a piece of the Chiefs Moneyline in some sort of fashion, Matt, I think you're doing yourself a disservice

because the Chiefs have routinely won these games and the things they do the best are no, they're not phased that anything happens in any point in the game. They play great from behind. All three Super Bowls they've won, they've been down by at least 10 points in those Super Bowls.

When Mahomes has the ball, under five minutes minutes down three, the Chiefs have yet to lose a game in that situation. Think about that. Down by three points with five minutes left, they have yet to lose a game when he has the football. They win these big moments. Matt Patricia was on my radio show this week

here on Sirius. And he mentioned, I said, what is about Mahomes? Just tell me. He's a guy, D coordinator for the Patriots, obviously, line tech coach. Because when Mahomes does so well, takes what you give him, doesn't make those mistakes. But when you make a mistake, he takes advantage better than any quarterback in national football league. You're both at one coverage, you make that one mistake and Mahomes takes advantage of it. So look, man, I'm on the Chiefs. You unfortunately produce only podcasts where people take the Chiefs,

but I'm doing it, taking the Chiefs. Yeah, man, me too. It's honestly, so I mean, this is a long week, two weeks without football. And you know, the way that this always works is you sort of, you have your first impression and then you think about it and then you talk yourself in and out and whatever.

And every conversation I have with myself where I'm like, well, Philly, like they are kind of dominant. They can get things rolling and they're kind of unstoppable. Like at the end of the day, like if the Chiefs are at a big game, you gotta take the Chiefs, like until proven otherwise. And, you know, I think it's interesting interesting like the books seem to sort of now be rooting for The chiefs because of all the eagles money that's come in but also there's so many chiefs futures that I think

They might actually kind of be looking for the eagles now. Yeah, they need they we had a mike palm on from the circus And they're going to need the eagles We had a Mike Paul month from the Circa and they're going to need the Eagles for futures liabilities Like the best result for them is probably if there's no future liabilities, they might be rooting for the chiefs But the futures liabilities like Kansas City they need they need the chiefs to win. Yeah, they're probably going even under yeah Um and Saquon Barkley to like not attend the game. That's probably the other thing they're rooting for. But yeah, I think, you know, you can go back and forth forever,

but at the end of the day for me, it's simple. It's the chiefs are, you have to take them. I think there are a couple things that are going to be the really interesting, you know, the strategic parts of this game are gonna be really interesting. And, you know, basically what will the chiefs do to try to contain Saquon? What will they try to do to protect Mahomes against the pass rush?

Will they find some vulnerabilities in the secondary? Jane Daniels was able to do that a little bit last week. Uh, Stafford was able to do it. You know, Jordan Love even had some moments where he was able to attack that defense a little bit. Let's see how they do in a big spot. Um, and then, you know, the, I think the Joe Tooney left tackle thing is really interesting and I'm sure, you know, we'll get to that, but I think there's just

sort of like, there's a lot of like little strategy strategic moves here. Um, but at the end of the day, the Chiefs have the better quarterback, better coach, the experience. It's just really, we'll say Quan or A.J. Brown just ripped the game open, which they could. It absolutely can. Look, if Eagles win, like I mentioned, it wouldn't surprise anyone.

They're a good football team. They can do things that affect the Chiefs. Yeah, look, a lot of the wagers for this game, Matt, and this is the hard part about waging the Superbook is one game are correlated, right? So when I talk about the ways, the plays I'm gonna give you guys, and I have to,

I had to get you to look like, so for those who, so I basically, I normally track them on a spreadsheet, but I just wrote them down instead. So I have like wagers like- I have so many. I have, and I- There's so much we can talk about. It might not be all of them. Now there's, of course, there's wagers. I have so many. There's so much we can talk about. It might not be all of them.

Now, of course, there's wagers like, like a Hender Shot, Anytime Touchdown, plus 3,500. Like that's not a wager I'm giving out for my five. There's a lot of wagers here that I'm not even giving out that I will tell you guys throughout the show. But a lot more correlated, right, Matt? And the game goes a different way, I might be screwed. But I do have enough to cover me if Philly does well.

I also think live wagering this game is pretty fascinating, Matt. I think there's a possibility to get both teams at like plus five or plus seven, you know, at some point. And you just sort of have some wiggle room there as well and maybe middle it. Especially if the Chiefs come out and score first, you might get Eagles plus five-ish.

Like you might get a good number early on. Maybe the Eagles get up 10-nothing. You get a Chiefs plus seven, plus seven and a half. You're like, you're gonna get some value there during the game. So where do you wanna start? You wanna start with, we'll start with this. I decided, I just made my mind up.

Okay, Chiefs offensive line Line Eagles defense, right? So the Chiefs moved their left tackle, excuse me, their left guard, Joe Tuning, all pro to left tackle about a month ago. And they had to do that because left tackle was a revolving door. That did two things. One, it stabilized left tackle pass protection,

but two, it made the run blocking worse because they put Caliendo left guard. Not his fault, he's not a starter per se. The Eagles are really good on defense, right Matt? Number one, past defense in the NFL, great run defense. Mahomes, by the way, is 3-0 in the postseason because number one, past defenses, averaging 37 points a game.

Just want to bring that up. He's good against these types of defenses. So the Eagles, I think, aren't going to, the Chiefs are not going to run the ball very well in this game. They haven't run the ball well. I don't think they're going to. And so that turns into a pass Mahomes,

Patrick Mahomes passing game, Matt, where I think we see guys like Kelsey and Juju over the middle of the field catching a lot of passes. And then the Eagles are gonna try to kind of bowl up in the red zone as they do and force the Chiefs to kick field goals instead of scoring touchdowns. So that's how I see that side of the ball going.

Anything you see differently there. No, I think that's a really interesting dynamic. And there's been some stories this week about some Eagles players being sick. Have you seen some of these? Yeah, so I was told that the Chiefs might have had this last week and now the Eagles have the virus, the flu. Look, it's a super bowl, man.

You have to drag these guys out of there. Thinking and screaming to not play. So yeah, I think Jalen Carter, they said, has been sick this week, right? Conveniently enough, it's the days when he has to do media availability. He's just managed to skip those days, Matt. It's weird how that works, right?

The days you're sick are just the days he's gotta talk to the media about what happened at Georgia. Then I have to do that this week, I should say. So yeah, I've seen that as well. But Super Bowl, I do wonder, some of it is like, the Chiefs have been here before, the Eagles were here a couple years ago, but it is a much different defense

than a few years ago for Philly. It's a lot of guys playing their first Super Bowl. And I wonder if that affects them early in the game is they're too amped up and the Chiefs are able to take advantage of, you know, an Eagles defense that sort of hasn't settled in on the first drive. Yeah, that's very interesting. The Jalen Carter piece, like if he is not a hundred percent,

if there's, you know, he is sort of, I imagine who the Chiefs are going to be game planning for. I don't think they're super worried about the edge rush, you know, no disrespect to sweat and crew. They're not, I don't think they're super worried about that. I think they're worried about the interior and you know, I think. Again, if we're reading this game, right. That probably plays into some rushing unders last

week. The Eagles two weeks ago did that against Washington. Like I had Austin Eckler over in rushing yards because I thought they're going to be out of the gun the whole game. There was nowhere to go. And I think it'll be interesting to see if the Chiefs, you know, how they integrate a rushing attack. Is it going to be with a bunch of, you know, reverses and stuff like that?

Like Pacheco is obviously not looked a hundred percent right. Hunt, you know, has seemed to run out of gas a little, even though he scored a lot. So that'll be interesting. I think, you know, but yeah, obviously like that's, that's a good, a good place to focus. Um, what else is catching your eye? Oh man. Um, so let's go to the other side of the ball. Uh, Chief's defense versus Eagles offense,

Matt. This one, I don't have a lot of Eagles player props in this game and I'll tell you why. I think the Chiefs are going to try to stop the run, right? Of course they are, which leads to Jaylen Hurts passing the ball. But I can see the Chiefs defense playing well against the pass, right? AJ Brown on let's say Watson and McDuffie on Smith. Or I can see the Eagles doing a good job passing the ball. I don't have a firm grass mat on how I think the game's gonna go for the Eagles offense.

They're gonna try to run the football, we know that. The Barkley-Russian numbers come down about three, three and a half, four yards, from about one 16 and a half try to run the football. We know that. The Barkley rushing numbers come down about three, three and a half, four yards from about one 16 and a half down to one 12. And so I think people think they're gonna be able to, to not run the ball well. He might, I like to take on Barkley under longest rush of 25 and a half because that number

is six yards higher than usual. I mean, I'm just playing a number. There's only 19 and a half. Chief's defense is really good at tackling. Justin Reed, this is one that I don't have as my five, but I'll tell you, I have Justin Reed over five and a half tackles and assists. He's their best safety.

He's gonna be down the box. He's gonna have to be in charge of making plays against Barkley. But I don't have a great read on the Eagles. I know everyone's taking Dallas Goddard over, which you certainly should. I mean, he's gonna play well in this game. I feel like she's great read on the Eagles. I know everyone's taking Dallas Goddard over, which you certainly should. I mean, he's gonna play well in this game. I feel like she's having trouble covering tight ends.

Maybe that's a play in this game, but you know, Hertz could rush for a lot. He couldn't, he might throw for a lot, he might not. Like, I don't know, Matt, whether or who in the Eagles offense will be the one that excels. If Barkley has just held down a little bit. Yeah, well, I think we're probably both in line for, I think, I think the read is probably Dallas Goddard.

I think that's yeah. Dallas Goddard is, uh, he is, he has been like, he looked so good against Washington. He's, I believe their leading receiver in the playoffs may end up being the playoffs leading receiver after this game. I do think if you were Steve Spagnolo and crew, you're like, all right, we're, we're selling out for Barkley. Then we're going to worry a lot about AJ Brown. And if we get beat by Devante Smith and Dallas Goddard, so be it.

Right. Like that's probably how you're walking into this game. So like, okay, those are two pretty good, you know, third and fourth options. And I wouldn't be shocked to see God or, you know, pop open a few times, get left on a linebacker or something. And, you know, I think we both like him in a bunch of our bets. He's somebody who the markets bet him up, you know, but I think that there's probably still some value definitely on his catches and maybe his yards. Yeah, I agree. But I think that there's probably still some value definitely on his catches and maybe his yards. Yeah, I agree. And I look, this is a standalone game. You're going to have every person wagering on it.

So the like sharp square thing that we try to avoid sometimes or whatever. Like, I don't know. I'm not worried about what someone else says about, you know, like, what how this game is going to go, Matt. I just care what I have to say. Yeah, I care a lot about what you have to say. Like, you know, it doesn't, it doesn't, well, some people do. Some people don't let me go into the green room sometimes. But other than that, you know, it,

I'll tell you what, man, Super Bowl week, I'm like, I haven't three bowls of gumbo. So I'm not quite what I thought I'd be at. But, you know, I just, I mean, the older I get, I just don't like being around as many people. Like I just, I live my life in Charlotte. I have my little community. I come to LA, see you and Gabe, see my friends in LA.

Like, when I come to events like this, I just feel so out of place because I, I just, I'm not like high strong. I don't need like things done for me. I just handle my own life and go to these events and you see these people that are just like, just live a different life than I do. It's hard to relate to them.

I don't know. And I'm not a good networker in the fact that like, I don't feel the need to like go to my boss and be like, hey dude, what's up? And like back slap him. And maybe I should Matt, maybe I should be more like into that. But this is what this event is for a lot of people.

Like you go to these parties and she's executives and you're supposed to go over there and like be best friends with them. I just can't do it. Maybe I'm admitting too much with them. I just can't, I can't do it. Maybe I'm admitting too much, I don't know. No, I don't think so. Who's, give me, you have to have bumped into someone cool this week, any good encounters that you want to share?

I saw the back of Tom Brady today. Okay. That was fun. Well, on the radio we've had, we had Thurman Thomas on the radio. We had Marshall Falk on the radio this week. We've had, I think we had other Hall of Famers on there. Those were, they were really good interviews. I saw, you know, it's fun to see some of my friends that I'm with. I saw a porno walking the street once. That was impressive.

Just walking. I just with someone else. I was like, I didn't say hi. I mean, then I'm with on the Fox area. So like I see, you know, all the Fox personalities. I know Ocho pretty well. Ocho and I were in broadcast bootcamp together. So I have a picture of us that we were- The NFL's one? Yeah, we were in the same group. Yeah, we were in the same group together. So-

Were you in Nate's time or no? What? Was Nate there at that point, Burleson? I don't know, but me and Ocho were like in the group together. How funny. We were in like the same like pairing for like the three days.

And I don't think I thought he was gonna turn into this, but yeah, it was Ocho, Ocho, Ocho, me, I forget who the other one was, but pretty, this is back in 2016 with the Lions. I left for a week in May of OTAs, OTAs and went to broadcast bootcamp. So that, it didn't pay off. I didn't get any jobs from it, but they don't, it's, they, it's interesting because they, there are guys that everyone wants to call games, right?

Everyone's called games. But there are guys who are just naturals at it, right? You get them in front of that, Greg Olson, right? Just immediately like was really good. And what Ocho does like just naturally, he's just good at it, you know? You might not agree with his opinions and you might not agree with like,

but he is entertaining television. That's the goal of being on television. And at that point i just didn't have it so who else i saw i've seen this like famous i don't know i mean radio row face will walk by i don't i don't know um who counts as fit i don't know who's not know man, that's up to you. The honest thing I will say about the famous people is the social media influencers that I see around here and they're just always being recorded. It just seems like a tough,

pick a lot of money, so tough life is not the way to put it. But, like, just to always have to be in front of a camera. It's a little Truman Show-ish. Yeah. Yeah. And I don't know why they come here, but they do, and they, you know, just like being followed around by cameras, so. I don't know, saw Stephen A at series, I don't know,

him and Mad Dog were doing radio together, just yelling at each other for 30 minutes. It was fantastic. That was incredible. That was great. So you know how these are, man. They're just. Have you run into, there's a little bit of news

I wanted to get to at some point. Did you run into your former teammate Eli Manning at all? I did not, no. He did not make the Hall of Fame last night. There's been some real discussion about that. I'm curious where you fell on that. Yeah, so four Hall of Famers last night, right? Jared Allen, Sterling Sharp,

that video of him and Shannon Sharp was fantastic. I love those videos. Jared Allen and then Eric Allen, right, the cornerback. And look, I think like Luke Keighley's a Hall of Famer. Guys that should be Hall of Famers, they will be, right? Like just calm down, everyone's so angry, just calm down. I like that it takes a little bit of time, right? Like in the NFL, like you don't put in eight guys

every year, right? So very select class. Eli Manning is very fascinating to me because only one other quarterback in national football league history has two Super Bowl championships and not in the Hall of Fame, that's Jim Plunkett, right? And to me, the argument for Hall of Fame is,

there's two arguments. One is like, do you do something Hall of Fame worthy? And Eli Manning in those two playoff runs did. Fantastic, right? Two times Super Bowl MVP, but he's only been to the playoffs like two other times. Like he's not like a premium playoff team, a player. Another one, this is an argument I had

with Frank Gore essentially, is, well is Frank Gore not in the Hall of Fame yet? Or did he go in last year? I think he's in, right? Frank Gore's in yet? I don't think he's in yet. He will be in. I'll check what he's talking about.

I think he will be in, but he's like second all time in rushing yards, like some insane number. Is like, I think you have to be the best of your position or like top five for multiple years to be a Hall of Famer. And Frank Gore was never outside of one season essentially. Eli was, I don't think ever that way. And it's hard to be like the seventhest quarterbacks in the Hall of Famers, they won two championships.

That's it. Is that what the Hall of Fame is? I think Eli gets in, but you look at the list and you're like other guys are more deserving. He might get in like the ninth or tenth try, get ten tries just to put him in eventually. I think he will be in. He plays in New York, he's a New York giant. He's in an NFL family. He won two championships, but you know, he was in any given year. I don't think he made any All-Pro teams.

It's just hard. The other fascinating part about Hall of Fame and awards ceremony, we'll get back to the game in a second. Don't worry guys, we'll have all our wagers to end. We'll empty the clip, don't you worry. Is Josh Allen won MVP. First time since 1987, that an MVP quarterback was not the first team All-Pro.

I'm kind of shocked. The NFL voters actually used the word value in how they made this vote. So Lamar Jackson was first team all pro, the quarterback, which the same voters vote for both. I know there's some consternation with the voting panel. If you look at the 50 names, it's interesting. Media personalities that like, here I go, oh, okay.

Like, where's my vote at? I'll take a vote. That eight, I think seven or eight had to switch their vote to Josh Offer MVP after they voted Lamar Jackson first team All-Pro. And I talked to one of the voters, I knew one of the voters, and the reasoning was what I think it's gonna be,

is that we wanted to give both guys recognition for the season. We thought Lamar was the best quarterback, we thought Josh Allen was the MVP, played with basically a worse roster around it, which is true, the Bills had less pro-bowlers and less all pros. But the NFL doesn't do this ever, Matt. This is like not what the NFL has ever done.

The most, not the most interesting, the one interesting part is you see that the polymarket movement before the MVP vote. I saw there was a big bet. Yeah, 600 grand. At some point on Josh Allen. Wow. Yeah. And like two hours beforehand,

so they must've been tipped off that Josh was gonna win. So good for Josh, I mean, it is, but it did surprise me. What was your thoughts on it? Yeah, I think that's the right choice for the reasons you outlined. I also was surprised by it, but the MVP, MVP now, sports are so self-aware

that now we're sort of we're on we understand what the impact will be. If Lamar wins it three times and Josh has never won it like there's this whole other conversation that sort of turns it from like well I don't know I think this guy had the best season. And now I think, you know, looking back, it sort of does seem like it was Josh's year. I think if you were to do it now, it would probably be Josh, then Saquon, then Lamar. And then like, you know, does Jared Goff even make the top five if you were to like do it today with everything we knew?

So I think that's pretty interesting. But I think the story of this season will end up being Barkley, but Allen is probably the right choice for the award. But yes, good for him. I think what's funny about that award is the take I made that I know you agree with. Everyone would trade any of those quarterbacks for Mahomes.

And it's the fact that Mahomes and the chiefs went, you know, essentially 15 and one, uh, and then, you know, are still getting sort of shut out of the awards is interesting. And I wonder if that will play a, uh, play a role on Sunday as they close in on potentially the first three Pete and the modern NFL history. Um, it, it, it, the home city again, like, because he's like, you watch him play this year, and there's not even a lot of like MVP moments per se. But then you remember in the Buffalo game,

it was like third and 18, and Tony Roman was like, not a lot of plays here, but I bet Mahomes can make a throw. And he made an incredible throw in Hollywood Brown, which is out of bounds. I don't know if you remember that throw. You're like, only one person in the world can make that throw, especially with Holmes.

And that's what it is. Lastly, about the awards, Matt, do you agree that an NFL player died on a field and came back to life? Is that like a fact? Do we have that as a fact? That player, DeMora Hamlin, that's still not one come back player of the year.

That's coming back from death. not one comeback player of the year. That's coming back from death. Feels like the definition of the award. Yeah, it's a starter for a team that was, you know, in the Final Four. Yeah, that is funny. It's like, why didn't he win it this year too? Like, yeah, but let's, you know, Joe Burrow hurt his wrist. So Joe Burrow has won this twice in like six years. Good for Bengals fans. That's something they could put in the trophy case. I'm sure they would love to obviously have other wins.

No one trolls the Bengals better than Nick. Right. So good. You do a decent job yourself. I just want to Nick though. I just want to mention, of course, Jayden Daniels, one rookie of the year to the one voter who voted for Brock Bowers over Jayden Daniels.

God bless. I wonder if that person could look in the mirror and think, yeah, the Raiders could probably call Washington and trade Brock Bowers for Jayden Daniels. They would probably do that trade, right? Two sort of addendums to that story, Jeff. Last night, my wife's out of town. The night was getting kind of late.

I may or may not have enjoyed a, a edible bites of marijuana. It's possible that happens. Legal in California, legal in California. And you know, I had a bad, I had about an hour in me and I was like, what should I watch? Like, I don't know. I, I, you know, my, I'm going to wait for Ivy for severance. There is this 54 minute rip of Jayden Daniels highlights that the NFL posted. And I sat there and I watched the whole thing.

I watched the whole thing. And then today our friend page, she was our, our head of talent here at Blue duck, uh, worked with Jayden on something and sent me a video of Jayden saying hello to me and hello to my son, which meant so much to me. So a nice little day for me with Jayden Daniels. I did not see Paige. You didn't see Paige? I'll text her now.

I don't know. I mean, I don't know if she's at Radio Row. I mean, I'm out there today, but that's a great story. So you stayed up for all 54 minutes? Yeah, I watched it from, you know, 8.35 to 9.30 or so, plus or minus some ads. And yeah, he's pretty good, man. My film study has concluded he's pretty good.

Are you Sans kid right now too? No, kids, well, kids at daycare right now, but- No, I'm talking about like, oh, so you was sleeping, okay. Yeah, a kid, yeah, a kid was- No, I was just curious if you were just like, like, cause I'll tell you what, the Super Bowl this weekend, Matt, you'll get to this point in life when quiet,

like you had last night, is so preferred to anything else in life. 100%. My mom is here and offered to like come and help put him in bed and stuff. And I was like, no. I went bedtime at seven Oh one. Yeah.

A night where I can just like do weird stuff, like watch 54 minutes of Jayden's Rose. Like that's all I want. I am in this hotel room right now. I won't reveal where I am. I'm in New Orleans though. I'll leave Monday morning. I think I'm going to go Sunday.

I have to work till noon central time. The game I think is at gonna go Sunday. I have to work till noon, central time. The game I think is at 530 Central. I'm gonna go find myself the biggest bowl of gumbo I can in the city. I'm gonna order takeout and I'm gonna come back to my room. It's actually so cold in my room right now, like 65 degrees. I'm gonna keep it like this.

Why so hot? That's like too warm. I know. And I'm just gonna sit here in my room quietly, volume probably off. Yeah. And just have my notebook, watch the game, track my wagers, live wager,

and then go to bed four minutes after the game is over. So that is- That sounds great, buddy. Yeah, it's the best thing ever. And that'll go with me. If you have a spare 54 minutes, I'll send you the Jayden Daniels. I do.

I got, by the way, speaking about sending videos, we're not even on NFL anymore. We'll get back to it. If you like this podcast, you're here anyway, so sorry you're stuck. My son texted me the first funny video ever. He sent me a video that he thought was funny. 10 and a half years old, first one he sent me.

So I'm excited for this relationship, Matt. We send each other funny videos from now on. It really changes the relationship of father and son. That's really great. That's really great. One more Norman Schwartz story. It's my son, before we get back to our bets. So he's 10 and a half, okay?

He is the most confident about himself child I've ever seen at this age. He just is who he is, it's the best thing ever. The other day he comes home from school, tells mama, hey, I wanna ask this girl to the dance. There's a dance next week supposedly. All the other boys have asked girls, or not all of them, but three or four of them,

and the girls have said, no, but I want to ask this girl her name, I won't mention her name. And the first day he didn't do it, he said he was gonna do it, he didn't do it, I'm talking to him on the phone, his sister is a great wingman, his sister's like, Alex, if you like the girl,

you want her to be your girlfriend, just ask her, okay? Just get it done already. Just like, I love it, just like in this, and he, and she talks to the girl too, like, and he's like, I love it. Just like in this. And he, and she talks to the girl too. Like, Emmy's like trying to help. So Meredith, my wife got him four chocolate covered strawberries and Emmy wrote him a note to give to Matt, to the girl.

Okay, Matt? And the girl did not answer Alex for like four hours and then said no, but kept the note. She brought the note home with her. Alex said, give me the strawberries back. He took the strawberries back from her and gave it to his teacher.

Wow. Interesting save. Yeah. Very clever. Way to save the face there. Yeah, good for Alex. I'm not prepared for my kids to like have dates to elementary school dances though.

I was unprepared for that. That no, I'm glad my wife was home. That's definitely a meritor thing to handle. Yeah, she's the right one for the job. Okay. So we're talking about football. Here's what I think we- I talked about football for so many freaking days.

I was just going to talk about anything else for 15 minutes. How do you wanna do, buddy? Go ahead. I think what we should do is we should reveal our top five, and then we should unload the clip on all of the insane stuff. And we have to end the show. We have to end the show with your take, my favorite Jeff Ford's take, which is the Gatorade prop.

So that's going to be at the end. Why don't we go through your, my, and Jackson's top five picks here? Let me pull this up. Let me pull up. Let's do, who do you wanna go first? Why don't you go ahead? Okay, I'll go first.

I have so many ways I have to make sure I have the right ones. Sam's got it for you right on the screen here. Okay, perfect. Okay, there we go. All right, here we go. So Chief's Moneyline, duh, okay. I met you go. Okay, perfect. Okay, there we go. All right, here we go. So Chief's Moneyline, duh. Okay, I met you for weeks.

Five stars. Five stars, minus 120. It might get better, actually, if you wait. Might get a better number on Sunday. In game, I'm gonna play with some numbers, we'll see. Travis Kelsey over six and a half perceptions, plus 120. Normally, Matt, this number's five and a half, all right? Six and a half this weekend.

You can find a six plus reception number for 150-ish. So you can lay some more juice, get a better number if you would like. Games where Kelsey is coming off a buy in the postseason since 2019, he's had at least six targets and at least six catches in all nine of those games. In seven of those nine, he's had at least 10 targets,

I think like nine catches. So he catches the ball when they have rest. And the Eagles defense is set up to where the middle of the field I think is pretty vulnerable. If Pat's scrambling, if he wants to make quick passes, Kelsey's right there. I talked about it earlier, Patrick Mahomes has to throw the ball in this game

for them to be successful. Over 35 and a half pass attempts. Under six and a half punts. I mean, with punty Matt, go four and a fourth down, kick field goals, be aggressive. And then St. Claude Barclay under 25 and a half for as long as Roche will round up my one star play. So Moneyline, Kelsey, Mahomes, punts, and St. Claude Barclay.

I will also say, the middle of field will be a theme here. I like Judges Smith-Schuster over yards and over receptions for the same reasons I like Kelsey over as well. So those are not, those are some of my stronger plays, not one of my five. What do you got, Matt? Interesting. All right, well, I had a few similar thoughts here.

I also went with the Chiefs. And by the way, Jeff and I, I think I'm beating you by maybe one point as we've been in Super Bowl here. So I kind of hedged here. I took the chiefs with the points. So at least have a little bit of variation there. I'm willing to lay the one and a half.

We've talked about that at length. Um, okay. Mahomes over five and a half rush attempts. So I'm surprised we can still get this number because his yardage prop has continued to go up. I was on this last, on the AFC Championship game and people were like, wow, that's right, they designed runs for Mahomes. Like yes, Mahomes not only will get some looks on the design runs, I think, you know, especially when you get that pressure up the middle, we watched Daniels do this, like you can sort of sneak out and get a yard or two. Mah homes is very good at not taking a big negative play.

And then you also have the kneel down value here, right? End of the half end of the game, you could maybe get two carries there. Um, so you have to lay a little bit of juice at one 30, but at five and a half, I think that's a good bet. Um, this is a fun one, the homes and hurts both quarterbacks, uh, to complete their first pass. So I did a little bit of look on this. So obviously the theory here is you have two weeks off,

you have two really good offenses, the plays come out, you're scripted, but the first throw is usually like a rhythm throw, right? Like last year, Mahomes threw to Kelsey, he got a yard on his first pass. But it turns out, if you look back in the Super Bowls, Jeff, the last time that this didn't happen the whole, the whole Biden administration, every single time in the super bowl, the first

two passes were completed from each quarterback. So it was the last super bowl where this didn't happen was super bowl 54. This is super bowl 59. So that's three. This is obviously the third Superbowl in there. That's the bangles and Rams. That's the chiefs and bucks. So easy throws here. Makes sense. So you can get that at just minus one 10.

So Deandre Hopkins, I liked him instead of Smith Schuster as a target in this game. The chiefs love to do this where it's like, oh, it's the Super Bowl. We're going to feature a guy we haven't really seen in a while. It's either going to be Juju, DeAndre, or Hollywood Brown, right? Like one of them is going to pop in this game. But DeAndre Hopkins, this is just a total narrative play here. 11 and a half receiving yards. This is a guy who spent his whole career knocking on the door in Houston. He's sort of like been through every single situation.

He made a big statement this week about how much this game means to him and sort of the summation of his career. I just think that he's a really good receiver and they're gonna find him as a sort of forgotten guy. They've kind of kept him on the shelf. He hasn't really done much the last couple of weeks. So I like him here at minus 115.

And then Jeff, this is my favorite. So this is not going to likely, this is not a good competition by me. I'm putting a 10 to one bet in my five spot. Jordan Davis over half a sack. So here's why this one makes sense to me. We talked about Jalen Carter. He's such a disruptive force. He lines up on the right side of the offensive line the left side of the defense So creed humphrey and other way other way other way around. It's the right side of the defense left side of the offense But he's going to be over creed humphrey and trey smith's shoulders

That no other side last no he he went over cosme's side last week only six snaps No, other side. No, he, he went over Cosme's side last week. Only six snaps. Only six snaps. Interesting. Well, they're going to move him around, but the problem is, I actually, I liked this for a reason. Go ahead. Yeah. I think it's probably the same reason here is that Joe Tooney is kicked outside and now the weak point of the chiefs, uh, the chiefs offensive line is going to be that left guard spot.

So they're going to have to be, there's going to be stunts. There's going to be all kinds of stuff up the middle. And Jordan Davis doesn't get a ton of opportunities, but Jaylen Carter is going to get everybody's attention. Jordan Davis had one sack all season, but he also did have a sack last week or two weeks ago against Jay Daniels. His snap counts went up in the playoffs.

He's a really difficult matchup. At 10 to one, I think it's pretty good. And by the way, Jaylen Carter is sick allegedly. So even if he takes a few extra plays off, even if it's five plays, it gives Jordan Davis a few more snaps. That increases your chances. So at 10 to one, I think this is a fun dart throw.

So I threw it in here as my one star. Do we give you 10 points if you get this one? No, no, I laid the wood buddy, 10 to one, let's go. Okay, I don't dislike this because I think that there's a possibility that all the attention goes to Jaylen Carter and Jordan Davis is freed up one-on-one to make some plays.

Yeah. I think bringing down the homes will be his hardest part. There's opportunities to get free and we'll see. All right, let's do Jackson's five plays here. And then we'll just unload the clip. Jalen Hurts over rushing yards here. She teases a lot of opposing quarterbacks, rush for 39 plus yards in the last four games.

We know- This is a popular one that's gonna go over in the rushing game. Barkley over rush attempts, over 21 and a half rush attempts. We know that Eagles wanna run the football. Bahamas over one and a half passing touchdowns. Do you have the thought it is like, they use the run game to, you know,

the pass game to run the ball sort of idea, right? Dallas-Cotter, the entire country is on Dallas-Cotter over receiving yards. They have four and a half and minus 130. So they're laying a little bit of juice there. Xavier were the over six and a half rushing. That's another popular one. I tell you, it feels like the pine sports AI system

has been rating some of like the influencers on social media with some of these wagers though. This is very much what we're gonna get from our favorite fades this weekend. I think the hurts one makes sense to me. I would rather if, and you know, I could look dumb. I think Jalen hurts just to score a touchdown. That's at minus one 10.

Yeah, I was playing a hurts rushing prop and I will, that will probably be the one. The Goddard, that's a good number if you can get it. And we're the like, he'll get his carries, I think out of the backfield, but we'll see. That's a higher number. I think I took him at three and a half, maybe two times in the playoffs.

Yeah. All right. You wanna unload the clip on some other ones? You have taken them. Yeah, what do you got for me? Let's go ahead. Well, back to the receivers. I really like Chief's over eight and a half receivers in this game. Uh,

first of all, I think you could also do the over two and a half players to, uh, to throw a pass. I just think that in order to beat the Seagulls defense, you have to go a little bit out of the box. And we've already talked about all these guys who I think are going to contribute and there were eight receivers last week, uh, or in the AFC championship. I'm not sure that Noah Gray even got a ball in that one. He didn't, he didn't. So if you just have the same exact performance as the AFC championship, but

had Noah Gray, who's, who's been really good throughout the playoffs, then you get to nine. I think there's a lot of ways you get to nine. There's P Ryan, there's, you know, the three running backs. We already, we, we both liked the game script from a home's throwing a lot So I think that's pretty good value and I got that at plus 140 I think so you can still get it out there that one that was a draft games. Give me another All right Eagles first sack minus 120. I

Like the Eagles to get home first. I like that one. I did these two. I took first catch of the game, Worthy plus 700 and Brown plus 1,000. The two wide receivers for the Chiefs. Did they get the ball first? These are just pizza money, right? Okay. I told you the Hender shot one,

anytime touchdown. Okay, we got that one in. Okay, I saw. Um, okay. We got that one in. Um, okay. I saw this on an offshore. She used to come from behind and lead in the fourth quarter. It didn't say when just lead plus one 99. Interesting. I like that one.

Yeah. It feels pretty good there. So, um, that's about the clip, buddy. I mean, I got a lot here. Second half, highest scoring half, minus 115. I like that one as well. She's money line. Yeah, I mean, buck her over one and a half field goals, which is now juice so high,

you just can't even hit it, I don't think. A punt to be a touchback, at plus 130, like that one as well. Interesting. The punters in this game are the two lowest touchback rate punters in the whole league. Yeah, they're good. Interesting. Yeah.

There's other ones like, I saw, and I'm gonna crib one from, I think Stormy had this on my Vsyn show. Like, Eagles to convert a fourth down attempt on their first drive is like plus 800. Chiefs is like plus 1100. So many wagers to make. All right, Matt.

Can I give you a few more? Yeah, yeah, please. On DraftKings, you can get Travis Kelce to score the first and last touchdown at plus 9,500. Oh, if this is his last game, he might be featured, especially at the end. I could see the storybook ending for our guy who understands how to work the spotlight. Um, each team to score at least one Russian pass touchdown. That's plus two 20. I like that one. Uh, let's, let me see here. They're Smith Goddard and Hopkins to all have that's Devante Smith,

uh, to all have over 40 receiving yards is plus 1300 at draft Kings. It's a really good number. Um, and then I really like these triple crowns. This is one that I haven't played with much, but basically the way that works is you pick the leader in each category, uh, rushing passing and receiving. And that one, it's like, you can kind of just safely think it's going to be Mahomes and Barkley and then just start to play with the other outputs. So Kelsey's plus 500 Goddard is plus 1600 with that trio. So I put down, I put down a full unit on that

cause that feels like a lot of fun. And then I liked any tight end to record the first touchdown is a plus four 20 at Caesar's. And that's, that's we'd like Goddard. We like Kelsey. We'd like Noah Gray, you know, there's lots of ways that one can cash. So that's a fun one.

How about, how about, who would they show first on the anthem, on the offshore? Okay. Taylor Swift is plus 300, Charles Kelsey is minus 600. If I lay, if I lay like, 2400, I win 400 bucks. Is it worth it?

I don't know, man. What's your thought process? You gotta look in the mirror. Are they showing Taylor Swift before Travis Kelce for the national anthem? The answer is absolutely no. Yeah, probably not. Is that first of anyone or is that head to head?

No, head to head. Oh yeah, Kelce makes a lot of sense there sense there Kelsey might be the first person they show it's minus No, it's it normally goes like coach coach quarterback quarterback. Kelsey. Yeah, I'm Chris Jones will be crying If there's if there's a property fine for anyone to cry take the yes That's it I'm done, um, can you give me the Gatorade take it's my favorite. Yes That's it, I'm done. Can you give me the Gatorade take? It's my favorite. Okay, yes.

The Gatorade take is simple and we're actually seeing movement now on yellow green with the Eagles using 2017. So essentially the winning Gatorade color, if even the team with the white jersey is gonna win, it's not gonna be red or orange because that stains the jersey. So if you think it's gonna be the Chiefs, you gotta choose purple or even lime, I guess, but it's been purple for the Chiefs or

water because they're not gonna have a color that stains the jerseys. If you drink red Gatorade during a game, it's gonna pour all over your jersey, orange as well. So yellows and purples, purple is basically white, it doesn't stain, right? And the Eagles obviously won with green yellow, they have green jerseys. You can get away with any color you want essentially with dark. So that's my take on it. Tom Brady, by the way, had purple for like every year. He must have been a purple guy, even in Tampa Bay. But those white jerseys in Tampa, I think. So that makes a lot of sense. They wore white a lot in New England as well, in a lot of their Super Bowls and Super Bowl wins. They wore white like Atlanta, Seattle,

Tampa wore white when they beat the Chiefs. A lot of white uniforms for Tom Brady. And those were the years that they had purple as well. So that kind of goes to what I've been saying about the Jersey colors. Yeah, the Chiefs went purple the last two, right? Yes, one was white, obviously in 2022. Interesting. Yeah, I would imagine that they would keep it relatively consistent, but yeah, interesting.

I've always enjoyed that because you're essentially betting on which team you think will win. Correct. But then, you know, the Chiefs threw a goddamn purple at us last year out of nowhere. So, you know, that's, but sometimes, sometimes they keep us on our toes. Matt just sent me the video of Jay and Daniels saying hi, saying hi to you and your kid. Did you watch us on the edible last night? No, I got it this morning.

I think it would have broke my brain. That's actually what I was doing on Thursday night. Unprompted. I mean, you should. All right, buddy. I didn't talk down. You did it, pal. This is your last show of the week?

No, I got Sunday morning, but I'm off tonight and tomorrow, thankfully. But tonight I'm going to some fan-dome party with my wife. If my wife wasn't here, I'd be going to sleep. So we'll have fun tonight. We'll see. It's Blink-182 and Meg the Stallion. Wow.

Y'all leave. What, that's an interesting Venn diagram. Correct? Yeah, exactly. All right, everyone. Enjoy the Super Bowl. Have fun. I wanna do this every week in the off season.

We'll see what the schedule looks like. We'll see if we can afford. Definitely be back next week. The manpower here. If you wanna sponsor our show to make that happen, send me a tweet, send me a DM, send Matt a DM. We can make that happen. So we'll be back next week for sure.

And then we'll figure things out. Alright guys, have a great Super Bowl. Hope you win your wagers. We'll figure things out. Alright guys. Have a great Super Bowl Hope you win your wagers. We'll talk to you guys next week weekend You