Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - The Aggies Catch COVID, Bowl Game Picks, and the Best Bets for NFL Week 16

Episode Date: December 23, 2021

Geoff and Matt are back to give you their best bets for week 16 of the NFL season, but first Geoff explains Wake Forest is probably going to miss out on a bowl game this year, and shares his leans for the Alamo Bowl, the Cheez-It Bowl, and some other big bowl games that’ll be played in the upcoming week.Then Geoff and Matt go through every game on the slate for this week of NFL action, highlighting a few they’re betting on (Bengals at Ravens, Colts at Cardinals) and a few they’re staying away from (Bills at Patriots, always the Jets). The team is looking for another big week to get back to .500 on the year, tune in to hear the five picks that are going to get them there.Leave a rating and subscribe if you enjoyed the podcast, and comment with your biggest hits and baddest beats for a chance to be featured on a listener mailbag segment at the end of the season.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's thursday december 23rd i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford this is jeff schwartz of smart you're powered by the varsity podcast network we have a whole bunch of college football news to get to before we hit our wagers for bowl games and a four-in-one week in the nfl matt we are doing we did last year buddy we are climbing out of the dungeon by the end of the season it only took us 15 weeks to win a lot of wagers. I am pretty upset. I play in a contest in the Golden Nugget Contest.

And we have seven picks a week. So what I've been doing is I've been doing our five NFL plays. And then I've been doing two college football games. Except two weeks ago there were no college football games.

And I took two pro games. I took seven pro games. And I'm 50. I should be 55 and 50 that's a winning record 52% but they I think they voided

my Eagles pick from this week I don't know if they because the game moved I'm going to send an angry email because my record is 54

50 0 and 1 that's crazy I don't know what so like so I don't know what I gotta if you're listening

anyone from the Golden Nugget or anyone I'm kind of confused. I can't find why they would void it. The wager stood. I put the pick in. It was Eagles minus six. I don't know.

The line closed about six too, didn't it? Yeah, and it never got to ten. Or to climb back up to nine by kickoff. It would have covered anyway. There was no number that they didn't cover. So we deserve credit for that. And if you listen to this podcast and got it at four and a half or five or whatever then you've even better yeah so we will talk through um the issues uh the nfl is withstanding right now and in college you want to start off i know you wanted to talk about

uh as we do this right now you have some bonnets behind you yeah some some cool little setups is that this is definitely your your childhood room yeah so i'm in my wife's childhood room uh in tampa florida champa bay tampa bay um and you have your oregon chiefs and giants helmets behind you and i have my wife's bonnets from childhood and it's it is a sight to behold we were talking about this when when i was coming back when i was coming back in here to do this show. We just caught up for two seconds. She was like, oh, are you going to turn the camera so it's not obvious like you're in a girl's childhood bedroom with a bunch of bonnets on the wall? And I was like, no, I'm pointing the camera directly at the bonnets.

She was like, I need Jacksonville Indians, and I need i don't i don't want to call your in-laws but their internet's not very good so they need to pick their internet game up man tough beat come on come on come on in-laws all right so some college football news before we get going here as we've seen covid go through the nfl we talked about the new policies they have and the new variants and we even lasted our last podcast, the Chiefs, and we'll talk about them, right? Like half their best players are out, at least right now because of COVID. They get some players back.

But college football, we had our first bowl game canceled. Texas A&M had to cancel their Tax Slayer Gator Bowl, which Matt is in Florida, because they had only 38 players available as of right now, only 13 scholarship players on defense. That's COVID and opt-outs. It's not just COVID. And so they can't even practice.

They can't even play. The ball game got canceled. Wake Forest is looking for an opponent. And I didn't think this would happen, but it has. Look, the variant is spreading wildly. It's not as deadly, at least yet, and not as, you know, you're not getting as sick, but it's obviously going through facilities.

And we saw Michigan today was announced, and we'll record this on Tuesday, excuse me, Wednesday, as usual, that they got their whole team got a booster. Alabama, Nick Saban talked about, 90% of their team got boosters. You got to wrap these guys, if you want to play in the playoff, man,

you got to wrap these guys in bubble wrap. You got to put them, you got to sequester everyone. You got to just, that's what's going to have to happen. Otherwise, this is going to run through all these teams, Matt. Yeah, I was, I love those stories about Alabama and Michigan. It's like, I think we said this, you said this when Tampa said that they were 100% vaccinated, which was obviously not true. But you said this when tampa said that they were 100 vaccinated which was obviously not

true but you said championship teams are doing this because it's the way to win and i love those stories from from michigan and alabama i was surprised but not surprised and especially with college kids like college kids have like a totally different life you know joe burrow was talking today about how it's easy to not get COVID because he lives in Cincinnati and none of these guys have anything to do in Cincinnati, which I thought was funny. I don't know. I'm sure Cincy fans feel a way about that. But it's really hard with college kids. A, they're younger. B, it's college.

It's designed for you to be social. I feel really bad that people are going to have to miss the experience. I'm sure there are people who bought tickets to this game that are not going to be able to go. But, I mean, it's interesting. This is the first time we've seen this, even back in 2020. So, I don't know. I'm sure it won't be the last.

No, it won't be the last unless, I guess, the teams are smart and kind of sequestering. You saw my kids walk in here. And there's just two things here now. Obviously, what happens to this bowl game and let's talk through what teams are doing right now that aren't playing the bowl games everyone's like oh just just just have someone show up all right well for the teams that aren't in bowl games they're off at home like they're home i had my freshman year we had no bowl game organ

you go home for winter break like every other student does so you're at home right now you're relaxing you're not working out you're just you're eating you're just living life getting called back to school for a quote-unquote kind of meaningless bowl game would ruin like you would be a bit you'd be angry yeah you'd be very pissed and you're out of shape not gonna happen get hurt like that's yeah even if you're just that's and so if you're five and seven you're allowed to make a bowl so if you're five and seven, you're allowed to make a bowl game based off of your score, your academic score rating. So how many guys graduate and whatnot. So they asked Rutgers, Rutgers said no.

Brett Bielema. Rutgers turning down bowl games. Yeah. Brett Bielema, Illinois' coach, said we'll play in the game and supposedly A&M, Wake, has been in contact with their opponent with four, said we'll play in the game. And supposedly A&M, Wake, has been in contact with their opponent with four teams that want to play in this game. What has to happen is it has to be a team that's already played a bowl game.

They have to get a waiver to play another bowl game. That's the team that has to do it. And to me, it will be a group of five teams. Wake's 10-3 this year. You give yourself an ACC team, an opportunity to beat a Power 5 conference team that was second in their conference, right? They lost to Pitt in the ACC championship game.

That's the only way this game gets played, is if someone, BYU, Coastal Carolina, they're sort of still around campus. They just played a game. Maybe everyone hasn't gone home yet. But convincing your players to play another game, good luck, man. That's a hard, hard sell.

It is. It is. It seems unlikely to find someone to play. It just seems unlikely to find. This game can probably be canceled, and it sucks for Wake. It sucks for the bowl game, but it's just the way it is.

Yesterday, I went to Michigan. It was my first time in Ann Arbor to present the Joe Moore Award, the award for the best college offensive line unit in the country. That's awesome. And Matt, Michigan's weight room was the nicest thing I've ever seen.

Really? It's the largest weight room in the country, buddy. Wow. It must have had 30 to 40 racks. It must have had every bar ever possibly made. It had an indoor hill. They have two indoor facilities. Indoor hill?

They have an indoor hill, they have indoor jumping areas, they have box jumping areas. You had 25 reverse hyper machines, and they had every dumbbell. It was the most incredible thing I've ever seen in a furloughed room. They have two indoor facilities. They have an indoor, and they built a new indoor. They have an old indoor that's like 50 yards,

and they built a new indoor that's a full size. So this award, and I've mentioned it before, it's a pretty cool award. It's the only award in college football, and I believe in NFL football, that awards an entire unit. We give it to an offensive line unit. The entire unit wins the award. And there's plenty of us on the voting committee who have played a lot, a lot of football.

And we get together each year. We watch the film. We vote. We talk. We text each other all season long long um and we we bring this trophy this trophy is like 500 pounds wow and it travels each year to each school so it will stay in in ann arbor until next season the crew went to alabama picked it up and drove it to ann arbor that's what it is it's a giant trophy and the best part about the whole process is how much it means

to the offensive linemen, of course. But the rest of the team, like Jim Harbaugh, man, was super pumped. He wore a Run the Damn Ball t-shirt. He was like directing, okay, tight ends. You get in the picture now. Okay, all right, all right. And everyone just celebrated, and it was pretty cool. It was fun to be back on a college campus. get in the you know like you get in the picture now okay all right let's get out and like everyone just celebrated and it was um it was pretty cool it's fun to be back in a college campus um

when's the last time you've been you were a college campus been a few years now um yeah been a few years so we went to this college bar and i for dinner i hadn't been there in like a long time it was the the bathroom stall had no door. It just was like a piece of plywood that was like the edge of the thing. So you walk in there and like you just, if you're just a big, I didn't have to use the bathroom, but my buddy did and his feet, like his feet

and hands were outside of the stall. It was just like, oh, this is what a college bar looks like again. With some burgers and some, yeah We had some burgers and some wings. It was a lot of fun. But congrats to Michigan. A really cool process.

I know that they're pumped about it. I was pumped about it. I'd not been to one of the ceremonies before, and I hope that everyone has the opportunity to win this award as we get to bowl season. So, Matt, gambling on bowl season has been difficult. I'm supposed to give you guys picks. It is my job to do so.

But it's hard, buddy. I wish you come to me, guys, because I think I tell you the truth. Betting on bowl games this year is, unless you have some intel about like players not playing or you just feel great about it over or great about it under Matt

it's been very very difficult yes in the next week we have a couple bowl games I will give you just my opinion on so Oregon Oklahoma is one of them that's next Wednesday a week from today we will be recording maybe during the game Oklahoma's favored by four and a half take Oklahoma Oregon is just so Oregon's coaching staff right now their head coach left in Miami they're off their coach for the game. They're offensive line coach.

They're strength coach. They're wide receiver coach. Are coaching for Miami. They're going to Miami. They're OC, and one of their offensive analysts is going to Akron. They're quarterback analyst. They're defensive analyst.

They're running back coach. They're going to Nevada. The staff is not even they're coaching like in spirit they already have other jobs like oklahoma at least you know they have venables there now they have bobs like they have more kind of just solidarity they had four coaches that stayed so you know those coaches are obviously coaching the same it's just a cluster i would take oklahoma in that game if i were if i was a betting man. Another game I eyed too, Houston-Auburn is pretty interesting.

That game is Tuesday at noon Eastern. Noon Eastern. The first game of the day on Tuesday. Auburn's probably 2.5. I kind of like Houston in this spot. Houston had won 11 in a row before they ran into the buzzsaw there, Cincinnati.

Points per drive, they're 25th in the country on offense. And on defense, they're 9th in the country. We know Auburn's had quarterback issues. They've had trouble scoring at times this year. They're 67th in points per drive. They're 121st in points per scoring opportunity. They're really good on defense. This feels like a low-scoring, grinded-out game.

It would be a great win for Holgerson at Houston. This game's going to be like 21-20, dude. I would take Houston in this game as well. Moving down the list on games that I've kind of eyed as possible. Clemson-Iowa State's interesting. That's, again, next Wednesday. It's the same night Oregon and Oklahoma play. Clemson's here by one here.

The total is 44. I think the answer here has got to be Clemson, guys. They've had some rough contests this season. They've actually played pretty well of late. They lost to Pitt 27-20. Since that point, they beat Florida State, Louisville, UConn, which is right. They dominate Wake Forest, and they dominate South Carolina. They won that game 30-0, the last game they played.

They're going to finish 10-0, I mean 10-3 this year. And we laughed at them this season because they started so poorly. 10-3 is 10-3. And Iowa State this year has just not been as good as we thought. They're 7-6. I'm looking at their record right now. They beat one

quality opponent, Oklahoma State, 24-21, but they are very offensively challenged. And so is Clemson to an extent. looking at their record right now they they beat one quality opponent beat oklahoma state 24 21 but they are very offensively challenged and so is clemson to an extent but we're seeing clemson kind of get better throughout the season and iowa state just yeah they just don't have it in my i think it's just too physical of a team in clemson i think iowa state covers this excuse me clemson covers this game matt do you have you have a pick for your Maryland Terrapins against the Virginia Tech Hokies? The Pinstripe Bowl, that is – which day is that?

That's next week? It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. Yeah, it's sometime soon. It's the 29th. It's next Wednesday. We'll be – that's funny. We'll be recording during Maryland's bowl game and Oregon's bowl game.

I don't love Maryland laying the three and a half. This has moved a ton. This opened up basically a pick. And all the money's kind of poured in on Maryland. I don't know if I would necessarily do that. In fact, I think I would lean the Hokies plus three and a half. Maryland started well, then went two and six and snuck by Rutgers to get a bowl game.

That's usually not the kind of team you want to back in a bowl game, but they fight hard. I don't know a ton about Virginia Tech, but I don't trust Maryland laying three and a half against almost anyone. It is, again, there are times in bowl season where we've said things like that right where like oh i don't trust this team this team's playing better this team and the exact opposite happens this has been a funky bowl season god bless you if you're gambling on it it's been very tough it will continue to be tough everyone i I follow that I know gambles is having issues.

But, Matt, we did not have issues last week in the NFL. We were 4-1. That's right. 4-1. And we are now 32-38. Three weeks left to climb out of this hole. There's games this week affected by COVID. They're still being played as of now.

And let's get to them. Let's start out with Thursday Night Football. Let's do it. Great game on Thursday night. I feel like they've been really good lately. The Niners are at Tennessee. Tennessee plus three and a half. What a slide they've had.

And the Niners are one of the hottest teams in the league, and everyone loves to bet them. Do you have a feel here? Well, what we're not doing is taking a three and a half point favor on the road. We've talked about this. We're not taking favorites on the road with that hook in this game. The Niners are quietly getting this like, hey, watch out for them talk. Okay,

they saw Jimmy Graupel at quarterback. But they're playing well on the offense, defense, and lines. Tennessee's not. That's part of the problem, right? Jimmy G makes enough plays. Deebo Samuel was the best, right? Jimmy G makes enough plays. Deebo Samuel was the best running back who plays wide receiver. And they just kind of do enough. Now, remember, Atlanta and FU Atlanta, Atlanta had the ball inside the 10-yard line four times in San Francisco

and scored three points in those four opportunities. So the Niners weren't perfect. Short week now. I think we stay away from this game. But the Niners are the better efficiency team. They're probably better at quarterback right now. Ryan Taylor has not been the same quarterback since Derrick Henry left the lineup.

They're better on the lines right now. But we're not playing three and a half. We've talked about this. We're not playing three and a half, let's just say, with teams, with road teams i it's funny i came into this thinking that i would be interested in the niners saw the three and a half was a little scared off and then i think i kind of turned into thinking tennessee might be a decent play here um oddly so last week we talked at length in that in that failed atlanta pick that the niners are not good with Kyle Shanahan as favorites.

In fact, they're one of the worst teams in the league as favorites since he's been a coach. But they're actually really good as road favorites, which is very surprising because you'd think it'd be the other way around. So that doesn't bode super well for taking Tennessee here. But Tennessee has the second-best rush defense in terms of total yards allowed. They're only allowing 3.9 yards to carry, which is towards the tops in the league. That should really put some pressure on Jimmy Grappolo to win this game for them on a short week.

I think they can, but Elijah Mitchell's probably not going to go. Jeff Wilson was great last week, but that guy can turn into a pumpkin pretty quick. And I just feel like the Titans need this. The Colts are getting hot. The Titans have been in a funk for a while. They get a short week at home. They've kind of already withstood the COVID wave, so I feel like they're in a decent position down the stretch here.

They get A.J. Brown back. For three and a half, I don't think it's a bad play. I don't love it, but I didn't want to make the case for it. We typically stay away from Thursday games for this reason. And I think we stay away from this one for now, unless we can't find anyone else that we like. Yeah, I think that's where it belongs. All right, let's go to two more Saturday games.

I was looking at just the dashboard we look at on Action Network of the amount of bets placed on everything. It's like no one's even placed their bets yet everyone's like catching their breath from this week we've got fantasy we've got bowl games it just ended yesterday there's so much happening it's like how are we supposed to have opinions on on all these games oh yeah it's very difficult merry christmas everyone yeah we've christmas i actually i forget about that around a lot these days jeff we're out here really digging deep into Titans 49ers for the people. We are.

We are doing that. Well, so Saturday, the Browns, who knows who will be on this team and playing at least, will be going to Green Bay. This line is moving constantly. I think it's up to eight now. I see seven and a half. Yeah, seven and a half, eight to Green Bay, who is playing for the one seed here. I don't think we can responsibly bet this today,

but if you have a take, I'll hear it. I mean, what line would you be comfortable at taking the Packers? 10. Like, honestly, Baker's playing. Let's talk about this. So let's say Baker plays. Let's say everyone's back for the Browns. Yep.

Would you take the Packers minus seven? 100% without even thinking about it, wouldn't you? So why wouldn't you take them right now? Because they might get COVID in situation? That's a great point. But they've already had. I mean, Rodgers and Adams already had it. So it's like, you know, what else is there?

Look, I know the Packers didn't cover this past weekend. They're up 31-17. Should have covered. they just kind of let their guard down at the end that's what happens you can't cover every week but like what what are the browns so the packers play really slow and methodical right what are the browns gonna be i i that's interesting i don't know man i'm into this seven and a half isn't a great number but I I'm not scared of it and you know I I don't know what credit Cleveland's getting I guess they're getting credit for you know hanging around with the Raiders but remember they're on another weird schedule right like they went Tuesday to Saturday yeah yeah or Monday or Monday Saturday yeah yeah and

they're still doing with a lot of transition so I I'm in on Green Bay, even if seven and a half is kind of a gross number. And Matt LaFleur does not lose in December very often. And I just continue to think they're playing good football. I just don't see why the Browns, even if Baker Mayfield comes back, how this game remains sort of close is kind of a mystery to me. There's 22 guys, as we're taping this, with COVID on the Browns and two on the packers like even if and this will come up throughout this like miles gaskin odell beckham other players

who like are really critical who came off the covid list it takes a little while it's like you you were sick like even if you're vaccinated everything was fine like and you just missed some practice like it takes some time to build up. So I think the Browns are in turmoil. So we'll go Packers 7.5. All right, let's do that. I like it. Okay, Colts-Cardinals. This is a very interesting Saturday game.

We're going to say this line is minus one for the Cardinals. This has moved down quite a bit. So it's gone up and down, right? It opened like Arizona minus three or four, swung all the way to the Colts. Now it's back to... Okay. So here's what I struggle with.

I mention this all the time. Kingsbury is terrible in the second half of the season. Yeah. We've continually handled that point. We've been right. It's one of the things I've been right about most this season is like, look, the Cardinals are 8-0. Okay, well, guess what, guys?

They finish slow each year. So congratulations on starting fast every year. So how about this? Over the last three seasons, the Cardinals are 15-5-1. This is just straight up, winning and losing. Through the first seven weeks of the season, they're 8-17 after week seven,

and obviously have a two-game losing streak. Their run defense is atrocious since JJ Watt got hurt. So the Colts' game plan is simple. Just run the football. I know this is square. I know that it's like, it's, but this to me is just a matchup game.

It's just a better matchup game for the Colts. 100%. I'm with you. I'm glad to get anything with a plus sign next to this for Indy is a win. Six worst against run this year, Arizona, you mentioned. Road Dogg, 70% against the spread against Cliff Kingsbury in his career. Kyler Murray, 15-8-1 in September and October. Six and 13, November to January.

It's just time. You fade him. It's not as easy as time here. You fade him. I'm with you. Let's fade time. You fade them. It's not as easy as time you fade them. I'm with you. Let's fade them. Done. Look at this. We like three games and it's not even Sunday. Let's go. Yeah, well, I

kind of like four in a row now, so we'll see. Yeah, all right. Bucs at Panthers. Your Carolina Panthers are 10.5 point home underdogs. The Bucs get a nice chance to get right here. Which side are you on? So no Godwin, but Antonio Brown is back, I believe, right?

Yeah, supposedly. Yeah, the Panthers are going to get their asses kicked in this game. Yeah, Brown's issue is his ankle. They're still figuring out if he can play. Now, I'm not sure I feel comfortable taking the Bucs here. We'll see how the rest of these games go. But I told you last week that the Panthers were going to get their asses kicked, and they did by Buffalo.

This is obviously different because this game is at home for the Panthers. Godwin injury scares me for Tampa. That does worry me. But it was announced today that Matt Rule is playing Cam Newton and Sam Darnold. Like, they're just not going to score. But again, this is 10.5 points. We tried to avoid that hook on the road, Matt.

I just think we – I like the Bucs a lot in this game. By the way, this is a teaser game. This is kind of like a stay away from, I think, a straight line game. Yeah. I mean, the player would be Carolina, if anything, I think. And that's not something I'm willing to do would be Carolina, if anything, I think. And that's not something I'm willing to do if we don't know who the quarterback is. The Bucs are the worst team tied with the Bears in terms of covering on the road this season.

The 10.5 just doesn't feel like a great number. Look, it could be the Saints. I'm curious. I know you've talked about it a little bit, but Tom Brady did not look the same without the full compliment. And Evans should not be playing this week for net who was a very underrated asset in that offense um there were some struggles on the offensive line that maybe just had to do with the saints last week but yeah without godwin and those guys i i i don't know you got to see it out of brady you know

this is the week to get right and they have a soft schedule now and he's got to win the mvp back so i still don't i i. I think you're right. Just stay away. Yeah, because we're not taking Carolina. Okay, moving on to Chargers at Texans. The line is nine, and the ultimate FU to anyone trying to get an angle here. Do we like Davis Mills enough to take this? Well, as we were talking two whole minutes ago,

the Texans place Brandon Cooks, Kymie Fairbairn, and linebacker Eric Wilson on the COVID list. They have 18 players currently on the COVID list as we talk. Again, the rules have changed, so players can come off. But I just think they get their asses kicked um they've they've the two against the

jaguars and they can't even come close to beating anyone else um i don't know if we play this game matt but i think the play would be the chargers nine points in the road no thank you yeah exactly right yeah we can't take that we can't take houston here we just can't no although i do got it i i do kind of like davis mills that's a guy moving forward but no thank you brandon cooks actually might be a good player by the way it's like maybe throwing the ball can we move on yeah let's do it because i i think the next game will be fun to talk about bill's patriots uh we are seeing two and a half, which I think remains. What do you think?

So Cole Beasley continues to understand what the vaccine and what the treatments are, which is another podcast. You can talk about that. He's out for this game. I'm curious what this line would have been had New England played better on Saturday night. What do you think this would have been? I think this still would have been about the same, to be honest. I think people are willing to give New England a break.

Josh Allen is 9-3-2 against the spreaders of Road Underdog in the regular season. A lot of sharp people I see are on Buffalo plus the 2.5. I am stupid and I am square. And I think the Patriots are going to win this game by more than a field goal. I think there's a better football team right now. The Buffalo Bills offensive line is a dumpster fire.

They cannot protect Josh Allen right now. The Bills offense is so disjointed, so all over the place. It's hard to predict what they're going to do. The issue that I have, though, is that obviously offensively the Bills might be able to shut the Patriots down. They're not going to throw the ball three times.

And Matt Jones didn't play all that bad. He had bad reception against the Colts. But otherwise, he looked better than Carson Wentz did. I just think Buffalo is just not as good this season as they were last year. And I would be totally fine with taking New England here. But I know if you feel differently, it's okay. I don't feel great about it. I assumed you were going to be on Buffalo.

Really? Yeah. I just feel like all the sharp guys are on Buffalo this week. I know. I don't see it, but I understand. No, I mean, I don't really feel like making the case for it because you're still getting the Patriots under a field goal at home. I just think this is Buffalo's Super Bowl and like they they have to win this you know they're clawing for

playoff position and I don't think they're a worse team than the Patriots they just you know it's been tough for them this year like they they've had a weird set of they've they've just had a weird year some weeks they show up some weeks they don't they blew out you know some of their wins that are blowouts like look pretty good now like they blew the saints out who just you know demolished tom brady um but then they lost by 30 to the colts like it just the week before it just doesn't make sense so i feel like i i can't really count on buffalo um but they would be my lean here i guess well then let's stay away for now. Yeah. I'll put them on the maybes.

Yeah. All right. Another good game. Ravens-Bengals, another divisional game. Bengals, two and a half is the number right now. Oh, man. This one's tough, buddy, because I think the Bengals are continually a little bit overrated

in the eyes of the public. People really like Joe Burrow, but they're not playing all that well. Struggled to beat Denver. Blown up on the Chargers. Lost the Niners in overtime. You know, but the Ravens, I keep telling this, they're so beat up.

But they covered last week. I don't know how they did it, Matt. I don't know how they did it. I have no idea. I mean, this feels like very much you take the bangles minus the two and a half but i don't feel great about it i just i again you know the bangles again they're fun to watch because they're 19th in efficiency they're 20th on offense efficiency they're 11th on defense was good or seven on special teams you know they scored 15 points the week before they

scored 23 before that scored 22 this offense week before that, they scored 22. This offense is not humming at the same rate it was a month ago even. Do you think this assumes Lamar plays, this number? Because I'm sort of starting to think that people are sort of like, well, it's Hundley, it's Lamar, it doesn't matter. I just feel like this kind of happened with Tennessee earlier this season where it was like Tennessee, they lose Henry, they lose Julio, they lose AJ, they lost all kinds of guys, and they kept winning.

And everyone was like, well, I guess it's just Tennessee. I guess they're good. And at some point, the bottom just falls out. It's 100% falling out in Baltimore. If Lamar is in, all bets are off because that guy is special enough to keep them in every single game. But if it's Huntley, again, the Bengals are a good enough team. And the Ravens' biggest area where they've just been demolished is their secondary.

And this is the thing that the Bengals do super well is airing the ball out. They're coming off of a week where they didn't score a lot against pretty tough defense. This would be a much easier assignment at home. I actually like Cincy here. I just think that Baltimore is getting a ton of respect, which they've earned. But this is a huge one. And Cincy's been good in the division this year.

They've showed up in those games. So Cincy minus a two and a half is one of your ones you like? I think so. I'm good with that. I think so. You can convince me with that. You can convince me i think so i'm good with that i think so you can convince me with that you convince me with that i'm good with that yeah baltimore nine and one in its last 10 is an underdog though that's a little scary but i don't know since he also we talked about this earlier they've they sort of don't have a covet problem they're one of the few

teams um well you know baltimore even the guys who don't have COVID, are still up in the air because of all the injuries. Right, right. All right, next one. Rams and Vikings. Rams, nice win the other night. Minnesota, it's God. Can I briefly, I want to say something, Jeff. I bet on the Bears plus seven against the Vikings.

I don't know if anyone watched that game. I hope you didn't. Oh, yeah. Happened to playoffs last year. So 40 seconds left. The Bears are down by 17. No, 14. They're driving for no reason.

Justin Fields is still in and they're driving. And it's like, okay, it looks like they're going for this. I'm thinking I can get a backdoor push here. Plus seven. One second left, Jeff. First of all, Justin Fields runs out of bounds, and the clock should have expired, but the home operator leaves one second on the clock.

They throw to the end zone. Cole Komet, I think, makes this catch where he wasn't even in the end zone, and they just gave it to him. They were like, congratulations, you scored. And I was like, this is the best thing ever they the bears should have covered the whole game anyway but then they don't kick the fucking extra point for reasons that i understand are related to players that changed that that changed a couple years ago yeah the unnecessary they don't do that anymore i lost my mind i was like let's go so excited that they didn't even kick.

And they didn't review nothing. They were just like, oh, the game's over. That is asinine. How can you factor that into that? Oh, my God. Imagine a UFO when they miss the extra point. That's true, knowing the Bears. So anyway, Vikings, I have sour grapes about the Vikings.

But they're plus three at home. God, what is with these teams? I don't know what to do here. I think the play is definitely the Vikings. The Rams are, did you see the graph that they tweet every week about where Stafford is in relation to Jared Goff? It's at the same quarterback.

Slightly better. Makes a couple better throws. But the Vikings are getting three points here. We know Zimmer covers against the spread as the underdog very well. Minnesota's pass defense is good enough. Their overall defense is 13th. I think this is the play here. Even though I hate waging on the Vikings,

but everyone's going to be in the Rams this week, buddy. Everyone's going to be in the Rams this week after what happened with the way the Vikings played and the Rams played. Minnesota, weirdly, not good against the spread at home. There's a ton of sharp money on... There's 15% of the tickets on the Vikings and 94% of the money.

Yeah. This is, I mean, this is a smart play. This move too. This was more, yeah, I guess so. I mean, I feel like the Vikings are so, they seem so beat up and like every game, they're just patching it together. But I'm not a big believer in the Rams.

They still feel like they're putting all their pieces together. Seahawks are trash. I think, yeah, I think we're getting some value on the Vikings here. I'm open to this. All right, two Vikings plus the three. All right. That's like a sensible bet. That's like in a week where everything doesn't make sense,

like taking the Vikings plus three at home feels fine. This is a game that doesn't feel fine to even think about. The Lions at the Falcons. The Falcons are laying five and a half. We assume, I think, with this line that Jared Goff is not playing, or maybe I'm just being too respectful of the Lions. You know what, Falcons? Kids, cover your ears, please.

Fuck you, Falcons. Tired of betting on y'all. You guys kill me. I feel like every week we bet at them or against them. Every week we do this shit. Dude, they haven't won a home game this year, and they're favored by six at home against a team that's covered like five or less games.

It's playing better football than them. Man. But if golf's not playing, this is why it's this way. If golf's not playing, this is no chance. But this is like the kind of game the Falcons tend to win. Right.

They beat bad teams, yeah. Yeah, they beat bad teams, but they don't cover. They haven't covered a home game yet. So it's hard to say that they're... They haven't won a home game yet. Yeah, but they haven't even covered. They've played so many of these teams i i don't know they uh cordero patterson seems to be

a little injured and their whole team has fallen apart since uh since he was healthy and explosive lions are a super public dog every single like shark guy is gonna be like but the falcons this week because like this is what happens but i can't can't do it. Which is why we're not doing it. You're exactly right. I can't do it. Let's move on. We have better games. We do.

Giants-Eagles is not one of them. The Eagles are favored by 10. I have no clue who the Giants quarterback is going to be. Well, the Eagles are going to win this game by more than 10. I just don't want to wager on it. Yeah. They're going to run it down their throats. The Giants have Mike Glennon, Jake Fromm.

Those are the only two choices, Dan Jones and I are. But I don't want to – but Nick Sirianni, the Eagles coach, is out now with COVID. So I think the Eagles do win this game by a lot, but I'm not putting money on it. I think that's the correct take. Let's just move on. And let's move on.

We could just skip this next game. Just skip right over it. Jags-Jets, no lead. The Jets have like 25 guys who got covid today not let's go to bear seahawks let's just move let's move it along i mean do we want to even spend time on bear seahawks no no not really the seahawks are two two six and a half two franchises just just dead in the water what do we wager we're not wagering this game big pass i that's a big pass. Oh, man. God. Sorry, Seahawks and Bears fans.

Ugh. Dude, Matt Nagy throwing that challenge flag. The refs are just atrocious, but nonetheless. All right, let's get to this next game. This one is interesting here. Broncos at Raiders. Raiders are a short home favorite at one and a half. I'm sure we're on the same side here.

Yeah, are we both on the Raiders? Yeah with definitely teddy bridgewater out of course this just doesn't even like this feels so obvious to me i mean teddy bridgewater to drew lock like we've seen this before like drew lock sucks how many more chances we're gonna get to bet on this guy in our lives like let's run towards this he is terrible and bridgewater has kept them in every game this year their defense is really good but like drew lock and dude in relief last week that he has some of these throws where you're just like what is he doing i mean they weren't the kurt cousins throw the the pick to the bears but there are a few like he's good for two or three of those a half. I'm with you.

I'd like Denver here. Or I'm sorry, the Raiders here. I like them too. I mean, I don't like them, but I think we're in on them, yes. Yeah. I mean, short home favorite, good spot. Raiders, weirdly, in the mix, there was a stat this week that I shared on our group text that no one has had more game-winning drives

since he entered the league than Derek Carr. Derek Carr is going to be an interesting off-season conversation because he's going to be the focus of every trade rumor. That's going to be him this year. By the way, the under in that game feels juicy as well. Yeah, under 41.5. That's so low.

That's like a half of a college game. Okay, Pittsburgh at Chiefs gets us to the late window on sunday 4 25 uh the chiefs hill and kelsey and chris jones are on the covid list that's three of their four best players chris jones should be off soon all right so this game is just i i see it back up to 10 which means that people must think a bunch of these Chiefs are playing. I see it at 7.5 everywhere. I see everywhere from 7.5 to 10. Steelers plus 10, I like.

But go on. I mean, if the Chiefs get down to 7, even with all these guys out, I mean, Sears is not any good. This is a game you just stay away from. I mean, if this line was at 10 and everyone was ready to play, what would you do? I would take the Steelers.

Yeah, just stay away and take the Steelers, yeah. Yeah, I would take the Steelers plus 7.5 with Hill and Kelsey probably out, to be honest. I mean, I don't love it, but the Steelers are competent, and the Chiefs without those guys, what are they? They're going to take advantage of the run defense of Pittsburgh and run with Clyde Edwards from there? Like, come on.

What are they going to be? We will find out. A quick update, side note, very quickly, to the bowl situation, the Gator Bowl. Illinois and Marshall among the teams that might play Wake Forest. If this happens during the podcast, we'll let you know. Wow. But who's filling in for the bowl game? Alright, next up. So we're out. Chiefs-Steelers. We have two whole

games left. Let's do these. My Washington football team plus 10.5 at Dallas. We don't know who's playing quarterback. We assume it's not going to be Gilbert Grape again for my Washington football team, but maybe it is. I was in Arbor, as I mentioned last night,

and the bar I was at had all these TVs. And the thing was like broken. They could only play one game on the TVs. I was like, you have three TVs. Can you put one on the Washington Eagles game? They're like, no, if we change that one, it changes all of them. I go, well, what's the point of that sports bar if you can't play different games on TVs?

So I was following the game on my phone. It was like 10-0. I was texting you and Hank. I was like, what is happening here? Why is Washington winning in this game? Gilbert Grapeseed is playing at quarterback. And then obviously the Eagles won very heavily in the second half.

I mean, Jalen Hurts, he just didn't play well in the first half. I think this is a stay away for me, Matt. The Cowboys have left tackle. I think this is just a right stay away. I agree. Although I will say 10.5 feels like a lot

if there's anyone competent playing quarterback for Washington. Sure, but we don't know that right now. Yeah. What if it is Gilbert Grape again? Can we give Ron Rivera some credit? I don't think Washington's... He's a great coach.

Washington is one of the teams... They lost Fitzpatrick in the first half of the first game. They lost Chase Young. Their offensive line is on their ninth millionth rotation of guys, which feels like Washington's problem every year. The defense got crushed with COVID. And they're competitive. I feel like people aren't giving him enough love because

they're not a good team. But he's done an amazing job with what he's gotten. He has. And just like horrible injuries, some of these old coaches, man, they can still get their coach on. Yeah, I mean, Brable deserves some credit. It's not just Belichick., I mean. They really can, yeah. Braybill deserves some credit.

I mean, it's not just Belichick. Some of these coaches can really figure it out. But I don't feel this game to me feels like a. No, but I do think Heineken will end up playing and this will end up being close, but I'm not willing to bet it. Okay. Monday night, Dolphins-Saints.

Nice win for the Saints last week and the unstoppable Miami Dolphins-Saints. Nice win for the Saints last week and the unstoppable Miami Dolphins. The line here is minus three for the Saints. Dude, I have not the slightest idea what to do with this game. I was hoping that you had something you felt about in this game. I just think the Dolphins are due for a loss. And I think the Saints, I mean, if you recall last week i was pretty heavy on the saints against the bucks um i think the saints are underrated that and everyone got kind

of scared off of them because they just had such a tough stretch i think they're markedly better than the dolphins uh they i mean the last couple weeks uh they've held their last two opponents nine points granted one of them was the jets um but they seem to have figured out something on defense gotten a little healthier maybe and they they dominate on the grounds like i just i just think that they uh would taste them i just think that they're you know they they can get on a roll here you would go with the saints here i would i also just am not a huge buyer in the dolphins um if you look at the the uh i i mean i haven't been either so they i mean they're a well-coached team with an offense that's like doesn't make a ton of mistakes but they have not beaten good teams in this stretch

um if you look back the the panthers the jets the ravens which was a nice one uh the texans like this team lost to the Falcons. This team lost to the Jaguars. They are not a very good team on balance. And I think that they're a little bit too hot. So I'm in on the Saints if you are. Is that one of them you would like to play? Well, why don't we take a look at our list?

What are we choosing? Okay, so it looks like we have six we like. Green Bay minus 7.5, NC plus 1, Cincinnati minus 2.5, Minnesota plus 3, the Raiders minus 1.5, and the Saints minus the 3.

Those are six plays. I feel like we chuck out the bad line with the Packers and put the Saints in here. I'm fine with that. Right? I'm fine with that. Yeah. We have all these games.

Basically, so Indy, so we're basically picking like almost five winners, right? Because Indy plus one, Tennessee minus two and a half, Minnesota plus three, Raiders minus a point and a half, New Orleans minus three. Yeah, I'm in on that, dude.

I like that. I think it's a good slate. I like that we're on some pretty good teams with good numbers. We're not taking any ten and a half point road favorites. We're staying away from some of these massive cluster games like the Chiefs game.

Are we sure we don't want to think about Pittsburgh getting a huge number against the Chiefs who are so banged up? I'm fairly certain about it, yeah. You don't want Pittsburgh. All those guys are vaccinated on Kansas City, except Harrison Butker. What if they all come back?

Like Chris Jones is back and Hill and Kelsey. Then it's on. And Pat Mahomes has played very well against his defense in his career. That's true. That's a good point. I will say, though i do think that there there might be an inefficiency in betting where it's like oh they're back where you know somebody comes back from a hamstring injury yeah well that's not even a good example because that's not a great one but somebody comes back from something and they're just back sometimes right like we just see that happen i don't know

if that's how it is with kobe because you have to miss all this practice. I feel like these guys have to have an adjustment period if they're activated a day before the game. You just see it. It will be very interesting to see, maybe in the offseason, if there's some analysis done on that. Yeah. I mean, you just look at it with fantasy.

Everybody who's playing fantasy right now, you get somebody back and you're like, oh, can I trust them? Can I play them when they're off the COVID list? And it just doesn't, I don't know. It just hasn't really worked out yet. So I'm in on Pittsburgh, but I don't know. I don't think it's worth knocking any of these out.

Yeah, I'm with you. All right, buddy, we good? We're good. I have some bonnets to try on. We have three weeks to pile out of this. You do have some bonnets, right? It's pretty funny. I should try the pink one out instead.

Which one? I'd say the one with the flowers on it. Okay. That's your style. It is. It's my exact style. It would bring out the color in your face better. I'm really having trouble moving my camera around.

Maybe I'm in the wrong business. Is it nice and warm in Tampa, though? It is. It's quite nice. It's quite nice. I drove by Raymond James Stadium last night, and there was a big mural of Chris Godwin, and I was like, man, that's a tough beat. Oh, man,

that sucks. Tough beat. Really good guy, Chris Godwin. I hope he comes back healthy. Yeah, that's tough. I mean, look, those are the hits that are going to happen because we can't let guys go high, right? Yeah, what do you think about that? I know we're at the end of time here but tom brady was like this was a dirty head and no one knows what to say well guys would much rather be hitting the

head because they don't think in the long term i think in the short term in the short term giving hit in the knee it causes you more uh time to be missed and messing with your contracts more interesting i think i think tamp Tampa might be in some trouble. I don't think they have enough depth to get through this without Godwin and Evans and Fournette. I think they could be in some trouble. Well, we'll find out. So, all right, everyone.

Have a great Christmas. Merry Christmas. As a Jewish person, I always forget to say Merry Christmas because I'm just not used to saying it. I remember there. Merry Christmas. As a Jewish person, I always forget to say Merry Christmas because I'm just not used to saying it. I remember there. Happy holidays. Hope you guys enjoy your Christmas.

Hope you're able to win some wagers. And we'll talk to you guys on Monday again. We'll get ready for the end of college football season. We'll have a more in-depth playoff preview next week, guys, because the playoffs do start next week. We're college football. If they happen, we'll talk about the Rose Bowl. I like a side of that game as well.

So we'll have a more in-depth preview of the big bowl games next week. Have a great weekend. Good luck to everyone. Good luck on your wagers. Talk to you guys on Monday.