Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - The Bills & Packers Dominate plus the Steelers and Buccaneers Find Their Groove

Episode Date: December 29, 2020

Geoff and Gabe get ready for the playoffs by discussing which teams are playing well at the right times. Plus: One week left and only one playoff spot is locked in - Geoff breaks it all down for you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Tuesday, December 29th. NFL does drama better than any league. We are headed into week 17. 14 spots in the playoffs, 13 seeds up for grab, and we're here to make a sense of it all. I'm Jeff Schwartz. Gabe Goodwin will join us in just a second. This is Jeff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. The Bills are putting a hurtin' on the Patriots on Monday Night Football. The game is not over yet, but I feel comfortable enough to come to you guys and talk about this game. The Bills up 31 to 9. Jared Stidham is now in for Cam Noon. We'll talk about Cam in just a second, but the

AFC is very simple. It's a two-team race. It's Kansas City and it's Buffalo. I understand the excitement for Buffalo fans about making the playoffs this year as the AFC East champions and a possible second or third seed depending on how next week it goes.

Buffalo wins. Pittsburgh wins. Buffalo is the two seed. They both lose. Buffalo's a two seed. Pittsburgh wins. Buffalo loses. Pittsburgh's a two seed.

And interesting because I wouldn't want to play the Ravens. The Ravens appear to be in the fifth seed. So they both kind of skip playing that game. Then Buffalo could end up going to Kansas City. That'd be a tough game. I think Buffalo's playing good football. Let's get to Buffalo for a second.

So I get the excitement for Buffalo. It's understandable. You should be excited. But let's take a step back for a second, guys. It's hard to win playoff games in the National Football League. We've seen Buffalo try to do this now. Last couple of years, hasn't happened. We saw the Ravens try to do this last two years.

Hasn't happened. It's hard to win playoff games when you have not been in that environment. This year's maybe a little different because there's no fans in the stands. There's not that anxious feeling of when you're the home team, losing by a touchdown in the third quarter. That's not there this year, right? So there might be some of that anxiety taken down a step. But Buffalo's supposed to win.

Remember last year they went on the road to Houston. This year they're supposed to win. And last year they went on the road to Houston. This year they're supposed to win. And the Spostas are hard in the playoffs. They're hard the first time you're there. The second time, not so much. Next year, I might feel a little more confident right now than I do about Buffalo going to Kansas City and being the Chiefs. Buffalo's playing well.

I'm not going to discredit that. They're doing a good job. I was wrong about Josh Allen? We've talked to all about that. But the Sposta, the curse of the Sposta, they're supposed to be in the AFC Championship game. The Chiefs are supposed to be in there too, and we'll talk about that in a little bit.

But Buffalo's doing everything that they need to do. Josh Allen is continuing his upward trends, completing 68% of passes his last four games. I put the graphic right now. He's doing a great job. They run the ball a little bit more. Defensively, they're continuing to improve, right? We're seeing the points of their game that are important

continue to get better as season ends. Offense has kind of been steady. It's been good. But defensively, started slow this year, picking it back up a little bit. Now, tonight's not the best indication because New England just can't pass the football at all. But nonetheless, they're kind of getting in a groove.

They'll have to beat Miami next weekend, obviously. That'd be a good end of the season for them ahead of the playoffs. How about this, though, for Buffalo? The year when they're going to be possibly 13-3, right, because they're 11-3 right now, is the year they take away that home field bye and no fans in the stands. It's tough to be Baltimore right now. It's the year they take away that home field bye and no fans in the stands.

It's tough to be Buffalo right now. You finally get in, no fans. Now they're talking about allowing 600-700 fans in the game. That's possible too. But no fans and no bye this year. Chiefs get the bye. So Buffalo's going to have to win two home games if they're the two seed, they go to Kansas City,

obviously play the Chiefs, and they have your championship game. So look, Buffalo's on the right path. Allen's played well. Defense ascending. Things are going the right direction. Brian Dable, their OC, continues to call great games. They have not been tripped up. They're doing the right things.

I think the takeaway from this game for me and I've been wrong about Buffalo talking about that is New England is just a disaster right now their passing game is non-existent this is basically like what if you know a triple option offense playing the NFL what if an offense that could not pass the ball playing the NFL what would happen this is it they can't pass the ball at all. And what's so shocking to me, and I've been wrong about Cam Noon this year, obviously. I thought he would work. Go back, like, what, end of September

now? They go to Seattle. They lose that game, but Cam was unbelievable. Then he misses two weeks for COVID and goes to shit afterwards. Now, everyone recovers from COVID differently. We saw Lamar Jackson come back from COVID a couple of weeks and boom, he's taken off.

We saw Zeke Elliott have COVID this offseason. Never, kind of never really been the player. Myles Garrett talked about losing weight. Larry Fitzgerald talked about losing weight. Everyone has dealt with it differently. And I haven't heard anything from Cam's camp or anything about how he has dealt with COVID. But he came back as not being the same player at all.

Now, it's not all his fault, okay? The weapons he has around him are awful. We saw the first drive of the game. Picture of a double pass for close to a touchdown. It would have been close, but inside the five, off his hands, doink. It's just... And when that happens, Belichick is not going to be inclined to keep calling those plays it's not going to be inclined to call pass plays like even like a third and

three in the second half they just ran option like everyone knows where to run the football and I get like the picture of it all these opt-outs that finally caught up to him the injuries they don't have depth on defense, they're not as good on defense, they can't run on defense, all those issues aside, but offensively, man,

their offensive line is not bad, by the way, they just failed at developing wide receivers, they failed at developing tight ends, that's the reason why Tom Brady left, this is the reason why, we're watching it right now on television, that's why Tom Brady left,

so New England is a wreck, they need to find a quarterback next year, they need to get younger on defense, they have a wreck they need to find a quarterback next year you get younger on defense they have a lot of pieces to rebuild but I trust that Belichick will have a plan for that and the question is quarterback obviously right who you get to be quarterback and I don't know if Cam's have a home next year I hope he does I'm rooting for Cam but um I like him but I don't know man tough sledding for the Patriots all right let's get to Gabe and we will start the rest of the podcast all right let's welcome in Gabe Gabe is struggling to survive in Los Angeles today it is

raining very hard my thoughts and prayers to all the Angelenos out there having to deal with the one time it rains in the last century how you doing Gabe I'm fine. I own no umbrellas. I have no boots. It is that biblical torrential downpour that comes, as you mentioned, once a decade out here. It's happened twice since I've lived here. This is the second time. You probably only saw rain like this three times your whole life living out here. So it rained on my birthday, July 11th, when I was like five.

Ever since then, I've been fascinated by rain. I love when it rains because it rained on my birthday, July 11th, when I was like five. Ever since then, I've been fascinated by rain. I love when it rains because it rained one time for, I was on the 10 to 405 North Exchange. I remember exactly what started raining. I was like, oh, okay. I see it rain in the middle of July. Yes, it does not rain very often back home in Los Angeles. I'm glad you're able to make it. And wow, a lot of great football.

Your Jets now continue to win and be very good, which I'm sure breaks your heart. Sam Jones, a teacher of your franchise. And let's talk about some good teams, though. Do you want to go there first? Yeah, we'll use rain as a segue. So my young children looked up at the TV on Sunday night and said, what's that?

Is that rain? I said, no, guys, that's snow. That's something they see even less here in Los Angeles. But it was snowing at Lambeau. It was exactly what we've envisioned when we've been talking about how important it is for the Packers to get home field advantage. If they can make people go to those conditions, we think they have a clear path to the Super Bowl.

We know their fan base is pumped up. They beat a playoff team and the titans exactly the way they wanted to rogers is the mvp davante adams is a world beater everything is good in green bay i'd say they're obviously the favorite in the nfc except remember it was a few days ago the saints also kicked the crap out of the vikings their offensive line dominated alvin camaro won everyone their fantasy game Taysom Hill punched one in so it's still a tiny bit confusing at the top of the NFC we have one weekend to decide at all I say Packers are the top team I think most of the pundits agree what say you Jeff Schwartz so I think the Packers are the top team for a couple reasons one and this

is the main reason why is they remind me of the Chiefs from last year, okay? And here's why. I'll give you the reasons why. One, they came off a championship game, lost the previous year, right? The Chiefs lost the Patriots, and then the Packers lost the 49ers. Now, the Packers shouldn't have won that game. The Chiefs arguably should have beat the Patriots.

But more importantly is the last month of the season, and maybe the last five or six weeks, the Packers are rising. They're ascending right now as the Chiefs did last season. Off or six weeks, the Packers are rising. They're ascending right now as the Chiefs did last season. Offensively, just straight up in the air. But here's the main difference, or here's the main key I should say about why they're like the Chiefs. The Chiefs defense will never be mistaken for being elite, right? But the last month of the season last year and the playoffs, they were outstanding, right? They forced turnovers and

got stops. Guess what the Packers defense is starting, right? They forced turnovers and got stops. Guess what the Packers defense is starting to do now? Force turnovers and get stops. All you have to do in the NFL now, when you have an offense that puts up over 30 points, is get four or five stops, any way possible. Punt, turnover, force a field goal, just to fuel your offense, give your offense a break, but allow them to keep scoring points while the other team cannot score points. So in those aspects, Gabe, I think the Packers are like the Chiefs. They're going, like Chiefs from last year, they're going straight up, right?

Just straight up. And if they win this weekend against the Bears, they'll have home field advantage. And this is why I do not think the Saints, no matter how good they are, can go into Lambeau and win. Drew Brees, late January, outside, I don't see it. And we saw this weekend too. The Titans were supposed to physically, at least on their offensive line, physically dominate the Packers defensive line. That didn't happen, right? So now the Saints have sort of the same game plan, right? They want to run the football, establish a line of scrimmage.

It's a little tougher when it's snowing outside and the weather's bad. And so I've thought the Packers, man, they look like they're ascending. They look like the Chiefs from last season, defense playing better, offense continues to improve. And look, as much as we, I think, gave Matt LaFleur grief when he was hired, he's been a good coach. They keep winning. They keep playing better.

And Aaron Rodgers is the MVP right now. Yeah. Okay. So a few things there to unpack and a few things i already plan to follow on but you took me right there so let's talk a little bit about that saints offensive line which i know you were tweeting your face off about but you probably got a lot of responses about i mean they don't usually try to run it into the end zone with kamara. They couldn't help themselves. Like he just kept on ending up there. People were vulturing touchdowns from him and he still was setting records. So what is that offensive line doing right in new Orleans? Because you're saying, you know,

you're not sure that can work against the green Bay defensive front, but I don't know, man, who in the world could stop that? Well, what stops it is green bay scoring 14 points of being up 14 nothing that's what stops it right is you get out of the run game we saw this weekend with cleveland right cleveland goes into new york they get behind they start throwing the ball the backup wide receiver says just keep running the ball running the ball running the ball um and that's how you get out of it right you get out of out of that because you start scoring a bunch of points. Plus, the Packers' defensive line is better than the Vikings'.

The Vikings has been shredded all season. And this is one of those special games, too. It just felt like there was something about trying to get Kamara, all those touchdowns. And, yeah, the Saints' offensive line, Ramchick and Teron Armstead, they played fabulous. They got after it. They looked good.

But, again, playing outside in the snow, in the bad weather, come January, the Saints the last two years have let us down, if you bet on them, really anyone, Saints fans, right? They lost the Rams at home and then lost the Vikings last year. They went to Minnesota a couple years before that, right? Lost in the Minneapolis Miracle. They just kind of haven't had, and maybe this is their year, they just haven't had that playoff success that we expected with having Sean Payne and Drew Brees together yeah I'd also add

to that remember Drew Brees um is playing with like all of his ribs broken I mean the idea of him going outside in a month uh and wearing a flak jacket and having freezing cold bones, half-broken bones, and having touch to the no receivers that he has. His receivers were totally missing in that game. That worries me a lot. So I'm still with the Packers for all the reasons you've said and that. Yeah, I think the Packers, again, I think the part that's important here is the ascending part, right? And this is what worries me about the Chiefs a little bit is, you know,

they're winning games. I get it. And they're doing their job. They're supposed to win games. But they're kind of descending offensively. Like, they're not playing as well lately. And I get it. They're still winning football games.

It's very important. But with the Chiefs, though, we're not looking at regular season wins. The game this weekend against the Falcons did not matter whatsoever right did not matter they could have won this weekend against the Chargers they'd have home field advantage and they have the tie breaker against Buffalo the three-way tie 11 and 3 would have been like some 11 whatever the 13 and 3 would have been some awkward convoluted thing where the Chiefs still had the tie breaker didn't have to win this weekend so it wasn't surprising that they played poorly. But when you play in the playoffs, man, this idea of like flipping the switch, I just worry that doesn't really happen in the NFL.

Don't like flip a switch. Now they're going to have off this weekend. Mahomes will not play this weekend. They'll have off the first weekend of the playoffs. They might get like a very hot Ravens team to come in there and division a round. hot Ravens team to come in there in divisional route. I'm just saying, Chiefs fans,

just, I just want to see some better play. I know they're winning. I get it. I get it. But the bar is high. The bar is Super Bowl high. It's not just winning, beating the Falcons. It's, can you win the Super Bowl? And, we've only had two teams since the

2004 Patriots that have even gone to back-to-back Super Bowls. No one's won back-to-back, but two have even gone, New England and Seattle. Hard to do, guys. Yeah, very hard to do. I like how you worked the Chiefs in there because it would be silly to skip over them. But before we leave the NFC officially and move to our next topic, I do want to talk about a few things you tweeted that I know got some action in your timeline. So basically the

question of which fan base should be confident right now we've just touched on the packers should be the saints could be there's one other team though that we haven't talked about yet that you've been tweeting about that i know are feeling it right now and they are on that ascendancy and that's your tompa bay, yeah. And they're finally scoring points. And all I'm hearing is, wow, the offense is finally clicking because they beat two of the worst teams in history and piled up a bunch of points to correct

for a bunch of bad weeks. But go ahead. Tell me the Bucs are for real because now I know you think that. So the last 30 minutes of the Falcons game and the first 31 minutes of the Lions game. 61 minutes. They scored 71 points. Oh, okay. Here we go.

That's really important. If you do just the right amount of slicing and dicing, you can find a section of quarters of games where Tom Brady looked like the old Tom Brady against two of the worst teams in history. He's supposed to look good against those teams, right? Like if, if anyone else played good against them,

Aaron Rogers, Pat Mahomes, you'd be like, great job, Pat. Great job, Aaron. But Tom Brady doesn't, it's not good that he's doing that. I'm just saying you're talking about ascendancy and they ascended over teams that have barely showed NFL capabilities this season. So I don't know if that ascendancy is the same as what the Packers are. Here's why. It's not.

But here is why I think if you're a Tampa Bay fan, you have to feel better about things. One is it did look like they clicked, right? That's some rhythm. That's some things going well for them. But the reason why I'd be excited if I was a Tampa fan is Tom Brady knows how to win these games right now. The rest of the team doesn't.

The rest of the team has not been there besides Gronk. They don't know how to do this. But if Tom Brady starts feeling better about the offense and everyone else plays more confidently because of that, then you have a chance. Your road's hard. You're going to have to go play a really shitty NFC East team on the road in bad weather.

Then you have to go probably play the Packers on the road again. Like, it's not an easy road, and I by no means think they're going to make the Super Bowl. But I feel better than I did two weeks ago about Tampa Bay's offense. Okay, but I'm not willing to give them a win if they have to face Chase Young and the D.C. football team.

If they have to face the Giants who just have some way of having magic against Tom Brady. I'm not 100% sure they beat an NFC East team in certain conditions. I'm just not. The Giants are not a good football team. The one I would worry about, and this is going to sound weird,

is, like, going to Dallas. And I just, like, Dallas, and I picked Dallas, you know, we picked them in the Super Contest this week. They're not half bad with Andy Dalton. Defensively, they kind of blow. But they're not half bad with Andy Dalton. Defensively, they kind of blow. But they're not that bad on offense. They can score points with Tampa, possibly, in a game like that.

Washington, look, Alex Smith's leg, poor guy, man. But this is how crazy the season is. Is the NFC East winner, essentially comes down to whether or not Alex's leg, that should have been amputated. Mostly, you know, if he was not an athlete, probably gone. Right. But, but, but they kept

his leg, that lower part of his leg that had no muscle because the flesh eating bacteria took it away from him. They put his thigh muscle into his calf and we're hoping that leg holds up for 60 minutes on Sunday for Washington to make the playoffs. There's no guarantee that leg holds up for 60 minutes on Sunday for Washington to make the playoffs. There's no guarantee that leg holds up past the 60 minutes. And there's no guarantee he even plays this weekend. So that's why I think Tampa, if they end up playing Washington, they would be fine. Going to Giants, Giants suck. I'm not worried about the Giants.

Dallas, though, like, I don't know. Dallas seems like they're feeling a little better now. Okay. All right. Well, we'll keep an eye on the whole playoff picture in next week's show, obviously. Let's shift over to the AFC. We've spent most of our time on the NFC so far. And I want to key in on the AFC North, which looks like it's going to give us maybe probably three playoff teams.

But I don't really know what to make of any of them at this moment in time. So I'm just going to throw a big analogy at you. Cause I like doing that. The AFC North is like the show sons of anarchy. It's good. It's not great. All right there. It's very watchable.

There are probably some in parts of it that you should take seriously and consider great. But for the most part, it is not a contender for like all time. great show and anyone who says so is lying to themselves so ending was i don't know who they're like breaking bad and the wire are in this analogy but i am saying the nfc or excuse me the afc north is mostly fraudulent right now even after the steelers look like they could score what does does Wonder Woman Part 2 fill in this? I feel like everyone's bashing it just as much as anything else.

Have you seen Wonder Woman 2 yet? I haven't watched it. I haven't seen it yet. I thought that was my one pop culture reference that could fit into a show that I never talked about. Did you watch it? Was it good? No, I don't care. I'll watch it at some point.

I was just curious. You're the movie guy. I don't know anything about TV and media. You know, two things while we're sidebarring on shows, and I do want to get some football in here, but Your Honor with Bryan Cranston on Showtime, very, very good. Dark, dark.

Don't watch it with your kids, but good. And we watched on Netflix the show Manhunt about Richard Jewell and the whole situation with the Atlanta. That one was actually quite good. Yeah, and we know that producer Nick loves the undoing, so make sure to watch that. Yeah, undoing a biopic about Nick growing up on the Upper East Side. I didn't know that.

That still shocked me to my core that Nick is a prep school Upper East Side kid. Not shocking at all when you get to know him better. Let's talk football. Give me some AFC North takes because I saw the Steelers suddenly have an offense. The Ravens are back, but the Browns suck again. What's going on? Okay, let's start at the top, the Steelers. So, wow.

Okay. I have no idea if this is here to stay, but that second half of offense was the best they've looked in months. Not just weeks, in months. They had a downfield passing attack. I couldn't believe it. Big Ben stuck in the pocket. He took hits through the ball downfield.

I mean, it was desperation, right? They had no choice. Now, is this going to be your offense going forward? Can you please start doing this now? Can this be your offense where you actually take shots downfield? You have great wide receivers. Throw it downfield. Their offensive line can't run block.

Benny Snell closes his eyes, too. It's like they can't run the football. But they can throw the football, and they can rush the passer. They can play good defense. So the question I have that will not be answered until the playoffs, because I don't think they played. I don't think big Ben plays this weekend. Think about it.

They have not had a proper buy all season. Yeah. And, and I think that Tom will just rest as many people as he can this weekend as a buy. Like, like they don't practice all week type of thing. Like big Ben just doesn't practice all week.

Interesting. Being the two or the three seat here. Does it matter very much. There's no fans. Right. Like, if you go to Buffalo or go play in Pittsburgh, the weather's the same.

Maybe they allow 6,000 fans. They're talking about 6,000 fans in the Buffalo. Like, okay. I mean, or would you rather have your starters kind of rumble through one more game and not get any rest?

I'd rather have them taking rest. So I don't think they play this weekend. So it's hard to see them carry this over, obviously, in the week 17, not knowing if they're going to do this in the week 18. But I think if think they play this weekend. So it's hard to see them carry this over obviously in Week 17, not knowing if they're going to do this in Week 18.

But I think if you're a Steelers fan, you saw a glimpse of what it could be. I caution them more than I caution like Tampa fans that seem more excited. Like Tampa feels a little more real than just Pittsburgh. But I'm excited to see Pittsburgh. Look, I've told you from the beginning, I like them this year.

We'll see if they can do it. Baltimore, look. I think Baltimore scored 40 points now in like four straight weeks, like some crazy number. They've done a good job. But they've beaten bad teams. Look, here's the deal. Until proven otherwise, they're not going to win anything

because they haven't won a playoff game in two years. However, this does feel like a role reversal for them, right? Instead of being the number one seed like coming as a seventh seed going to buffalo and beat buffalo like it feels like the like the way like it's the pressure is now going to be on buffalo to win that game or pittsburgh or whoever they play it's one of those two teams most likely then it would be on baltimore now to win the playoff game right all it's like oh well bills haven't won 25 years can you know can they win a playoff game. It's like, oh, well, Bills haven't won in 25 years. Can they win a playoff game? They're at home.

And so I think they kind of like that right now. I don't think Baltimore's winning the AFC, but that first game is going to be good. They played the Steelers tough, obviously. I don't think they played Buffalo this year, have they? I don't think they did. And all the pressure will be on Buffalo there. As far as Cleveland, it's a bad loss.

There's no way around it. I know they were out a bunch of wide receivers, and their left tackle and the right guard, and those were noticeable absences, especially Wyatt Teller, the right guard, but the Jets aren't good. I mean, like, that's a bad loss. You took the ball 50-ish times in that game, too.

Like, you didn't try to run the football as much as you should. The Jets' best defensive lineman was out. Quinn Williams out for the year. He wasn't. The more concern is defensively, like defensively, the Browns have regressed. They're not playing very well right now.

The Browns probably beat the Steelers this weekend because the Steelers obviously don't care, but there's, you know, there's a scenario where Steelers let the Browns win and then play them the next weekend. Like they just, they might,

would they rather play the Browns or the Ravens? Like if you're the Steelers let the Browns win and then play them the next weekend. Like they just, they might, would they rather play the Browns or the Ravens? Like if you're the Steelers, would you rather be the three seed? Actually it would be the other way around because the Ravens would go ahead of the Browns because they have a tiebreaker. Oh yeah. So Pittsburgh almost wants to win this weekend to get the two seed and then play Cleveland in the seven. Yeah.

I was going to say, there's that. You sound like Steve Kornack. I don't watch that segment. I can't do that. I get confused about all the scenarios. There's too much happening. Okay, well, so there's a lot of scenarios, and we also have Indianapolis to contend with, even though Pittsburgh just beat them.

They're still alive at 10-5. They got a few ways in. But you bring up the idea that they wouldn't play big ben or they'd rest some starters that they don't care about this weekend but what you just said is interesting a do they want to play the browns in the first round and b you can tell me as a former player that this is not the kind of thing that they're thinking about but all year long all that anyone on Twitter has been talking about is, you know, this rivalry and the whole thing with miles Garrett,

and there's still lingering feelings. And Mike Tomlin obviously wants to show his guys. He has their back. Like, does any of that silliness that'll be takes all week long factor? I think the number one thing for Pittsburgh is to be healthy, heading into the post season. And you think all the players understand that being healthy is more important

than proving anything to the Browns. Yes, by far. Okay. It's like if, the thing about winning the game, it's like I'm trying to do the math in my head. So if Buffalo, who has to win, who has to win week 17 to get the two seed,

they're going to play hard against the Dolphins. Dolphins have to win also. It's a great game. So if Buffalo and Pittsburgh both win this weekend, the Pittsburghs are three seed anyways because they lost a tiebreaker. So there's really no incentive for them to play the Browns at all. I mean, the next weekend they might play them again

or play Baltimore. There's just no reason for Pittsburgh to play this game hard. Like, they just let everyone rest. As many guys as you can rest, get refreshed, get ready for the playoffs. I played on two teams that – one team had a first-round bye. One team, we rest everyone to Week 17, the Chiefs. You just – you feel good with a week of rest at that time of year. Like, you just, you come back on Monday, and you're just, your body is so refreshed.

You're so excited for the playoffs to start. I'm not saying you're not if you made it the other way, which I've done before as well. But, like, you just, there's just, there's just, like, energy around the building. Like, we're fresh. We're ready to go. We had a week off. Our body feels great. Because, look, the week off is not just Sunday.

It's Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, too. It's Big Ben not throwing a ball for three days in a row. It's Marquise Pouncey and Villanueva and DeCastro, their three offensive linemen, just doing nothing all week. It's T.J. Watt getting to rest his body. It's Hayward

and Tewitt, those guys just hanging out. It's just a time just to relax and it's so refreshing for your body so i think that's the way mike tomlin will go in this covid is the only other thing that i have to throw at you all those things you just said seem true except this year is different than every other year and i don't know what exactly these guys can do or where they will be while they're just relaxing is there anything to be said for it isn't as relaxing to get the week off from all that stuff when you're trapped in a hotel room or your house well i mean you're well they can't go to the

facility and hang out and do a light lift and each conference will have the actual playoff by i mean big ben's still going to go in every day. Let me use him as an example. I mean, he's still going to go to meetings or virtual meetings, but just not practice. Like, just rest your body. You know, the Chiefs and the Packers or Saints or even the Seahawks can win the one seed.

You know, they get to just mentally take a break. Yes, they can't go out of town. They still have to COVID test every day. It's not really a bi-week in the sense of what we used to have. But nonetheless, it's a mental break, dude. break dude just mentally like i'm not to worry this week it's great okay so if we started this whole thing with a silly analogy to the afc north as sort of the sons of anarchy like i think it's cool and watchable but i don't really take it all that seriously i want to flip through a few specific teams and find their uh their tv analogy if you

will so we'll go with the steelers as the only real team in that division are they like are they game of thrones do they start big and awesome and everyone falls in love with it it gets a little confusing in the middle i don't really know who's who some crazy stuff and then it ends and it's debatable whether it ended great or poor uh there that's a good analogy uh who who is who is my brother angrily texting me plot points that are inaccurate in the in the show because he read the books who's who's that going to be like is that stealer fans getting angry with me on twitter yeah that's i think that adds up yeah you get the tweets people send you about a guard pulling in like week 14 are people saying the book that the guy wrote is different.

Oh, man. Mitch would like rattle off just like the first couple of seasons. Just like seven text messages in a row about the plot wasn't exactly like the book. And I'm like, dude, it's a TV show. It's not a book, buddy. It's going to be a little different. Yeah. All right.

So then the Browns, what are they? Nick suggested Stranger Things. I'm buying that because the Browns, they're, what are, what are they? Like I'm, I, Nick suggested Stranger Things. I'm buying that because they're young and they're cool. They're nobody's favorite, like, but they, they are enjoyable and we're, we may be, it's a great show, but probably it's just like fun. I have not seen Stranger Things yet. Am I missing out? Oh, that's a mistake. It's very good.

Yes. I don't feel like I'm missing out. It's the Browns. It's the Browns. It's very watchable. You can get into it as much as you want. It's probably not worth investing a ton of your time in because it's not going to pay off that way,

but it's a good show. All right. All right. And then last, the Colts, because they keep coming up. I'm going to tell you the Colts are Dexter because I've had a thousand chances to try to watch Dexter. I don't really know what it's about.

Some people think it's great. Most people I've met have never seen it. I don't know how to take it seriously or not. It might be the end of COVID is when I finally get around to watching this 10-year-old show called Dexter. That's the Colts to me. The ending of Dexter is just atrocious,

which feels like... You've seen Dexter? The ending of Philip Rivers'xter is just atrocious, which feels like... You've seen Dexter? The ending of Philip Rivers' career. Just atrocious. The ending is like the last... Of all the shows you haven't seen, you have seen Dexter? Yeah, my wife wanted to watch it.

So basically, he's just like... He's this dude who just mercs a bunch of people and saves a little bit of blood. So he has... He's like a Robin Hood of death. he just kills the bad people in the world um and tries to hide it uh but the end was just atrocious like it was so bad i don't know if nick has seen it if you've seen it before but it is the worst ending to any show um yeah i mean it feels like

the cults the worst ending to any season is gonna going to be Phillip Riverstone interception like he did this weekend. And they're not in there right now, right? They need some losses in front of them, which I think the most likely path is Miami loses this weekend to Buffalo and then Colts are in. Yeah. All right. Well, Miami is a great tease for over-under.

Moving the line is our little game segment. Miami and their quarterback situation is definitely going to come up because there's a lot of debate going on about that let's take a quick break and come back and move the line this episode is brought to you by HP whenever you do your best thinking the HP Spectre x360 is ready when inspiration strikes with power save for battery life and focus mode to multitask, you can do your best thinking whenever and wherever it happens. You can't always schedule when and where you might have a brilliant thought,

whether it's in the morning or before bed, when you're at your computer or away from it. Thinking can happen anywhere and anytime. The HP Spectre x360 2-in-1 convertible PC with Windows 10 saves battery life for whenever an idea hits you. HP Spectre x360, a more thoughtful laptop. All right, Jeff, we're back. It's time to move the line.

A few over-under bets. None of these are real, but I'm going to throw them at you anyway. We touched on some of these teams off the top, but I want to really hammer it home with you. So I usually ask for Jeff Schwartz's opinion on different teams. Today I want to know which fan bases should be super confident. We sort of hit on it earlier. I'm going to go through some of the best teams in football,

and you tell me over-under this percentage of confidence that they should have so over under confidence in winning the super bowl chiefs 99 i mean i mean i think that feels high i would say that the packers that's in the pack the packers i i the line for that game will probably be even by kickoff if they played, right? I mean, I feel like it'd be a pickup, right? I mean, Chiefs would probably open it like. Yeah, if they see each other in the Super Bowl, I feel like nobody's going to want to. Yeah, I think it'd be like, it'd open like Chiefs minus two.

It just gets bet to money line and everyone just is on a pick'em. So I would say, I mean, under feels high. I feel like to win the AFC, that's about right. I mean, I just don't know. She's at the point that, like, they think it's the Falcons to lose. I just, I don't know. Even though they haven't played as good, I just don't see them losing a home playoff game.

Let's keep it moving. A few more teams that are trying to take out the Chiefs. The Steelers are an obvious choice. We hit on them earlier, but the confidence level in Pittsburgh, 50%? Over under? Probably over because the offense finally showed up and I have to think if you're a Steelers fan you feel like who this is actually happening we're finally playing some offense I think and look that'll be the last memory of your year because

you're not going to play the starters next weekend so I think that um you feel good over 50 okay all right steelers can feel pretty good uh the bills we you know obviously you know they had the monday night game we learned a bit more about them um they've been confident all year bills fans are the first people in your mentions every week so how confident should that they just attention, like, no other fan base. Like, please, please, please be nice to us. Please mention us. Like, please. I just think they have to, like, win a playoff game first before I'm all in on them.

Like, I don't know why that's a hard ask. Like, I think that's kind of a normal, what normal people would think. It's like, yeah, but Bills fans are way over 70%. I mean, most think they're going to win the Super Bowl this year. Wouldn't it be weird if the Bills sort of turned into the Red Sox? So growing up in my life in New York City, the Red Sox were a punchline in baseball. They couldn't get over the curse.

They'd always lose. The Bills, obviously famously in the 90s, couldn't get over the hump. What if the bills win and then we go on this like 20-year run of the bills always being in it the way the red sox did isn't that a scary idea i guess um just you're not you won't even entertain the possibility of the bills being good dude 20-year run i mean that's what new england did that's it in history normally you have like a five-year window right niners cowboys stealers come to mind 20-year

window so i mean how about the bills win a playoff game first like let's just let's just let's start with that first hey listen dude i'm supposed to be the voice of the take makers out there. I'm supposed to hit you with the craziest crap I'm seeing. And some people are starting to think the bills are building a dynasty. So I just wanted to throw it at you. Of course they do. Browns, we can save time here. Their fan base is never confident. This year they got a dose of confidence.

Right now, how confident should they be, if any? I'm going to give them 25% over under confidence level. I think they're under. Their fans are just devastated after that game. Now, how confident should they be, if any? I'm going to give them 25% over-under confidence level. I think they're under. Their fans are just devastated after that game. I mean, I know that Steelers won, so it didn't matter for the division. But the fact is, they lost to Jets. Like, they lost to a three-win team, a two-win team now.

Like, that's, come on, guys. Yeah, I don't, I think that the Browns fans are very, like Jets fans, are very quick to lose all confidence and go doomsday. And even though they were riding high in the middle of the season, I think that they've given up. I really don't think that this is their year. All right, a couple teams that played. It's confusing to make sense of them, but obviously the Seahawks suddenly having a defense,

holding the Rams down you know looking like they're gonna win the division and probably probably have a very good seed they still have the one available to them how confident should Seahawks fans be right now with a better defense and Russ yeah they're all over under 40 percent confidence I think over but I'll say that their offense though it's just kind of been like, yeah. It looks like their offense has been the last two years. Kind of just good enough to make the playoffs but not win many playoff games.

They beat the Rams, obviously. It's an impressive win. And Goff has a broken thumb. We'll see if he'll play this weekend. Kyler Murray, by the way, is hurt. He might not play this weekend either. So Rams-Cardinals could be the backup quarterback game. Jared Goff turned the ball over one time in the red zone with a terrible throw.

It was nothing the Seahawks did. He just threw the ball away. And then they had that fourth down stop, and the Rams couldn't get a yard really four straight times. So I think that win for the Seahawks is less impressive when you consider that those two things, like they just, the Rams, at least if they had gotten six points, the game is closer there, right? If you're on two touchdowns, the game's over, right?

So the Seahawks, I don't quite buy them. But the fans should be excited because you have Russell Wilson. Anything's possible with Russell Wilson. I mean, you have Russell Wilson in a defense that looks much improved in recent weeks. Yes, and they're talking to – That's a combination for – that's how they got to two Super Bowls. Like, I mean mean it's as simple an equation as that so i i'd be confident if i were them i mean you know maybe some better

teams out there but they should feel good so the rams we're gonna say over under 30 confidence they should be even lower now with an injured quarterback yeah zero i did a confidence thing for fox sports today i don't even know if it's if it's out right now basically i said like i did confidence meter for every playoff team i think i put the rams at like zero i was like just without your quarterback you just don't have a chance to win and you you sort of hit this in the first segment of the show um but in a way the ravens being kind of this year's titans like the team that we might actually overlook a little bit instead of the front runners, that should maybe build a little bit of confidence in their fans. They went into the season super confident and then they lost all confidence. Now they're peaking at the right time.

Maybe they should be super confident. The Ravens over under 50%. Um, for their fans, probably over 50, but for me, probably under, I mean, they have a long path to get to the Super Bowl. I mean, they would have to beat, essentially, the Chiefs. Well, really, the Steelers or Bills. Then the Steelers or Bills again, and then the Chiefs. Yeah, they could have to go through three teams that would be the favorite in the Super Bowl. Yeah.

Potentially. All right. Well, then instead of doing this sort of fan confidence thing for the next topic, let's just spend a minute here for real on the Dolphins, who are not guaranteed anything yet and are doing something really strange. And for people who've been paying attention, this isn't based on injuries. This is a strategy now where they have basically been doing a relief quarterback uh two has been the starter Fitzmagic has come in to help them try to win games or win games that's worked to a degree and

now we're wondering like what are they doing you know like next this coming week against the Bills week 17 a must win for the Dolphins under most scenarios. Over-under snaps we see from Ryan Fitzpatrick. I'm going to say give me seven and a half. You take an over-under with that. Oh, over. I don't get what the Dolphins are doing. Brian Flores said 2-0 will start week 17.

So here's what it feels like they're doing. The front office says, hey, we're playing our young guy. And Brian Flores in the game was like, I want to win the playoff. I want to get in the playoffs. Fitzpatrick, go in. Because what other purpose does this serve? Having Tua start a game, not play very well, lose all his confidence for the fist to come in with the same parts.

I heard all Saturday night during the game, the Fitz to come in with the same parts. I heard all Saturday night during the game, the Dolphins don't have any parts. They don't have any pieces to throw to. And the Fitz comes in and just fucking rattles off 180 yards. He might have the greatest regular season pass in NFL history.

His helmet was like turned sideways. He couldn't even see off his helmet. He had a cover two shot right in that little hole. It was so beautiful. So I don't want to hear it, Dolphins fans. Stop whining about the weapons you don't have when fifth comes in and slings the rock. A lot of things were talked about too in the talk.

I thought Warner did a good job talking about the difference between Alabama open and NFL open. The Alabama open is 17 yards between you and Devontae Smith. And NFL open is half know 17 yards between you and Devontae Smith an NFL open is is half a centimeter right and just he doesn't throw guys open ever with with Fitz does well but here's the thing I don't understand it's the number one thing is that when Tua has been asked to do more in the offense Cardinals game Chiefs game he does fine so I don't know why they're not letting him throw the ball I don't I don't get it so I think Fitz comes in at some point to save him I I absolutely do um because Tua is just whatever reason the offense

not very efficient when he's in there well let me ask you this then is it possible that there's really more of a strategy to this and that you we've seen baseball obviously we all grew up watching baseball and you bring a relief pitcher in and you try to play the lefty righty game and there's a bit of strategy there but lately there's this new idea of like sort of pitcher by committee right and there's no starter and there's no closer and it's just a few guys cobble together a few innings yeah the opener right so i'm wondering if maybe and maybe i'm giving brian flores and team too much credit but what if they see Fitz as like hey we have a long field and not a lot of time that's a Fitz situation or we have a shorter field or this conditions are the way that we want them so that's a Tua situation Tua can do xyz

Fitz can do abc and coaches sort of spot that and you don't know as a defense which guys running out there to start a drive. And that's maybe hard on a defense. Is it possible that that's what they're going for? What's the saying? If you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks? Yeah, that's usually the same. It's not good.

And here's the thing. I saw Brian Flores discuss the relief pitcher, right, of Fitzpatrick. The difference obviously here is that a relief pitcher gets 30 throws in the bullpen to warm up. There's no 30 throws. It's like, Hey buddy, you're down 10.

Go win. It's a football game. And if it doesn't go out there and I credit Fitz, man, he's done a great job of this. He looks so happy. Like when you look at him in his helmet, he just looks so happy,

content. He's like, I'm just out there playing football, got my beer, just enjoying life. And he just starts slinging the rock and he does a great job. So it's just, it's really hard for me to do.

And they should have lost that game, right? The writers blew that game. It's very hard to do this. It's very hard. Just come in and save it. And look, he tried against Denver.

Didn't work. It should have not worked this weekend as well. It's like, it's working as great as I think it is either. It's just not, it's when you're behind 10 with seven minutes left, it's hard to come back. No matter who the quarterback is.

All right. So then let me, I have, I'm obliged to mention this name every show. So you're going to have to deal with it. In college, this idea worked several years ago when Chris Leak was the starter and Tim Tebow was the battering ram, change of pace quarterback in the red zone. That's how Tim Tebow got his first championship. Right.

But Tebow has a specific package where he ran the ball most of the time all right so you're saying that there's no distinguishable package difference personnel difference that you can work with fits first to it you just have two guys with slightly different skills but they run in the same offense okay well that's why i'm here and you're there because you can say that and i wouldn't have known i would have guessed maybe again giving too much credit definitely that they run a different offense with different personnel groups and different plays under fits and they feel like they have different players or different personnel all right well either way we think that they're at

best a one and done in the postseason and we'll see if they even get there so enough dolphins talk it's been a fun year to watch them but maybe we don't need to talk about that anymore. This next topic. I don't know. We can spend 10 seconds on it. If you'd like, I want to know over under six and a half wins for the NFC East division winner giants beat the Cowboys. Does it matter? Eagles beat Washington. Yeah. The standings will then be New York giants, six and 10. Okay. Washington six and 10 Dallas, six and 10 Philly five, nine, and one giants go to the playoffs if that happens.

That's what I'm rooting for because then a couple things happen. One is that we laugh at the NFC East. Just laugh. Ha, ha, ha. Can't go, can't go. Two is that we get to hear about how great Joe Judge is for an entire week before Tampa goes in and smashes them. You remember we talked about this a while back, Gabe,

when Joe Judge took over the offensive line, right? We had the whole brouhaha. And now the offensive line, right? We had the whole brew hop. And now the offensive line is not playing very well. And I tweeted yesterday, I was like, hey, guys, where's the – are we not blaming this on Joe Judge? He gets the credit when everything goes well, but now it doesn't – now it goes poorly and we don't blame him for that. Or maybe we shouldn't have believed this weird narrative

that he fixed the offensive line as the head coach. Schlereth on Twitter, too, was getting after it because he knows it it's not true he didn't fix the offensive line either um you know giants fans didn't like that tweet i wonder why it's weird yeah uh well i think it comes it's about the messenger and mark is about as good at analyzing line play as anyone really you two could go at it all day long he's one one of the best at it, and he shoots straight. So if he said it, I believe it. All right, well, so you've already told me earlier in the show that whichever of those teams gets in, the only one that might even slightly worry you would be Dallas,

and you don't think it's going to be them. So let's just keep an eye on the mess. Oh, I actually think Dallas is going to win. I'm rooting for 6-10, though. I want it to be the worst ever. You want to watch the NFC East burn, basically, is what you're telling me. Okay. Yes.

While we're there, this is, to me, not a topic worth any further discussion because he got way too much air time this week. But Dwayne Haskins is officially out in D.C., so he blew his chance. Obviously, we know that he had the, you know, COVID protocol thing with the strip club. And then, obviously, Coach wasn't a big fan of him because he'd already been benched. So now he's out. I'm just curious.

Over under three and a half teams actually give him a call this offseason to see if maybe he could be their quarterback. And as you answer, think about the quarterback market in general because if that guy's getting calls who else is getting calls well calls to start or just calls to be on the roster either because i don't see the point of having him in either case so i i get unpack that however you want he is a first round draft pick he would get another chance the nfl if there's a fourth or fifth round draft pick he would not and the reason why he got released was not really

because of the on field even though it doesn't help that he's sucky it's because of that strip club incident right the stripper incident it's like dude come on man uh we're in covid protocols washington by the way has not had a single player test positive for covid all season which i think is a sign of respect to ron rivera who's who's who has cancer who's in remission i believe and he's in remission but a sign of respect to him because he's in the high-risk category. He cannot get COVID. It's not because they have a really well-run professional organization from top down.

We know that that's not the case. We know they're not good at following rules or handling their business internally. Read other headlines and see other shows for that. It must be because of what you just said, because of respect for Coach. Yeah. And so I just think that was the final straw. that correct it must be because of what you just said because of respect for coach yeah and so um i just think that was the final straw and he had to play this weekend because they didn't they

didn't have a choice and now they figure out tyler helinski is just better so they got rid of him boom but look first round draft as i said i said this a little time your draft slot determines the rest of your career he would get another chance because all right well then a few other guys whose draft slot years ago could determine their future as well. I just quickly tick a few names off because the quarterback market is going to be interesting this offseason. Cam, where's he going? I don't think he stays, but I think somebody wants him.

Is it D.C.? I don't have a great answer. I have no idea where he goes. Would you bet Cam Newton is a starter somewhere in the NFL next year? Was this year help? No. You don't think this year helped his case to get a starting job? I was talking about this the other day.

How many teams are going to look for quarterbacks? Let's just assume the Bears re-sign Trubisky for one more year. Let's just say that. Jacksonville is going to take Trevor Lawrence. The Jets, I don't know. You tell me. Whatever. Let's say the Jets need a new quarterback. Just a new quarterback.

The Niners, I think, will be in the market for a quarterback, but probably just for someone they already have. They can go trade for Darnold or Matt Stafford. So Lions will be in need for a quarterback. It's three teams now. Who else is in line for a major quarterback? You mentioned the big names plus, I guess, Jameis.

Yeah. Mariota, by the way, too, can get some looks to be a starter. We have lots of – I'm just thinking about which teams could need quarterbacks. I mean, Patriots obviously need a quarterback, too. But it's going to be hard to find cam a spot to start i think because you got to tailor your offense to what cam does well and a lot of coaches just don't want to do that well i mean the big prize seems like it will be matt stafford um who could be you know and i think the niners should trade their first round i'd like to see the jets go after matt stafford and put a real

roster around him and give him a few years at the end of his career to see if he can pull it off. I think Darnold probably ends up like Matt Barkley, who, by the way, if you notice, Matt Barkley is the backup in Buffalo. He's in line to be part of a great run in Buffalo, and I didn't even know he was still in the league. Yeah. If you think about this, Kyle Shan Shanahan Niners head coach been there four seasons he's had one season

with a healthy quarterback he made the Super Bowl no one's even a good quarterback just an average quarterback imagine if they traded for Matt Stafford no they could be now

now they're gonna lose Robert Sala their D coordinator they're gonna lose some parts on defense but it's very clear Shanahan can coach

he out coached Kingsbury who's one of the worst coaches in the NFL, this past weekend. That team, the Niners, had no business winning that game, right? They've been in Arizona

for a month. They're out of the playoffs. They're beat up. They're injured. Third-string quarterback. And they kicked the shit out of the Cardinals the entire game.

Yeah, Jeff, you're basically making the case for, and I can see it already a few weeks from now, when you're betting the over on the win total for the the niners next year whatever that number is i see you taking the over um

quick fantasy nod here alvin camara had a record day as a fantasy player uh you would assume that that meant everyone who had him won so i'm going to say over under 90 win rate for those with camara in their fantasy week this year what do you think it is over i would bet you it's going to say over under 90% win rate for those with Kamara in their fantasy week this year. What do you think it is? Over. I would bet you it's going to be under. I had him. I'm going to win. But I actually think there were some big games out there that you could get very, very badly beat on.

So let's talk about records for a second. The record he broke was, or tie-ish, it was set in 1929, six rushing touchdowns for Ernie Nevers. Ernie Nevers, Hall of Famer. I looked him up. Played with Pop Warner at Stanford. If you're that old, there should be a separate record book. Like, there's no, this is before, obviously, before obviously integration right it's before a lot of modern football like it's before anything like i think the dave damashek tweeted this out our good

buddy like before super bowl one should have their own records and like super bowl era should have their own records um that and i know that i think that like that kind of puts jim brown a weird spot because he was before super bowl right like he's one of those guys that was like before Super Bowl era that I think anyone says now he can still play, which I agree with. But come on, Ernie Nevers. Like I put out a video from 1930 of an NFL play on Twitter the other day. That is what we're comparing Alvin Kamara's record to? That play?

Like, come on, guys. Yeah. Record books should be reset every 20 or 30 years because it will never be comparable. I mean, I think you said something like, if you're comparing your record to someone who played before helmets, the record is flawed. Yes.

It's a great line. I don't know what the hell Ernie Nevers is, but whatever game he was playing is not modern football. And whatever game, by the way, whatever game you and I grew up watching, I was thinking about this yesterday watching Cooper Cup has like 85 catches for 900 yards or something. I'm thinking to myself, like, how many of the guys that were all time great receivers in our childhood, anyone we would have used in Madden to get open in the 90s 85 catches was a crap load of catches and they would have had a lot more yards from my memory they all would have had a lot more

touchdowns too the offenses didn't have five guys who caught 70 balls you know like it was just a different situation so these numbers don't mean anything right look we're gonna we're getting to a point now we're gonna have hall of fame of players that make it because they played a long time. Like Frank Gore is number one in my book. Matt Stafford is going to be next. It's going to have just a ton of freaking yards and touchdowns. Was he ever the best in the NFL? Was he ever top three in the NFL? Frank Gore made one All-Pro in like 20 years.

It feels like, is the Hall of Fame playing very long? Or is it Hall of Great? I don't know. If you say Hall of Fame is the history of the NFL, then sure. Frank Gore, Matt Stafford, just their longevity should be rewarded. They're big numbers. But what's Hall of Fame of best players? Those two don't qualify.

Yep. Sorry. No, you're right. The fame of like best players. Those two don't qualify. Sorry. No, you're right. The hall of fame is a flawed. I mean, when you look at who's on the ballot every year and who's not in still, if we think it's a hall of fame, it's, it's kind of insane. Actually, some of the great players who don't get in versus a few who get in quickly. All right, let's end on college football. Cause that's what the week is going to be about very soon. I know you guys will touch on this later in the week when you make some bets but i'm going to throw a weird one at you everyone including you just a few minutes ago is just working off the assumption that trevor

lawrence is obviously going pro and obviously going to end up in jacksonville and that'll be that what if what if he either wins and wants to come back and do it again, or loses in like heartbreaking fashion to Alabama and wants to run it back anyway? Why would he want to do that? I don't know. He left the door open a few weeks ago. Jets fans were panicked. He was not willing to say for sure he was coming out.

What if something happens in this playoff that makes Trevor Lawrence want to do it again? I want to answer this real quick. So the idea that he wanted to skip the Jets to go play in Jacksonville. Excuse me? This is the New York Jets, right? Now, it's Forum Park is 40 minutes west of New York City, but it's a quick little drive into the city.

You helicopter in as well. I mean, there's ways to get to the city. So you're telling me his agent, his marketing manager, his PR, his family would rather he go to Jacksonville than New York? I don't understand this thought process. Jacksonville, no offense to anyone from Jacksonville. It's Jacksonville.

It's the AFC South. Don't care about the AFC South. You would go to New York City. New York. I don't understand this topic. Even your Jets fan Greeny brought it up, I think, right? It was like, it's unfair that you had the draft system. It's New York City.

Why would you not want to go to New York? I don't understand this. Well, that's not even what I'm bringing up. I'm wondering if you would want to go anywhere in the NFL or if you'd want to play another season. i just want to make that point i want to make that point anyways but he's leaving no matter what yes all right so you're saying over under 99 sure you're taking the over he's coming to the nfl to get at this other point i don't believe that this argument should resonate with players but i think they have agents in their ear who are commission based.

And when you say Jacksonville and New Jersey, and you look at income tax savings, I think a lot of agents say Jacksonville sounds pretty good. That first, because there's no guarantee of that second and third deal. If you can commission a big check with, you know, even more money and income,

don't you think that's part of the equation here like he keeps more if he plays in jacksonville that's more money to give to all the people who help them get there i mean sure i guess i mean yeah new jersey is like geez i live there it's like 9.7 it's just brutal it's a high tax state and so i don't want to make it about this isn't a show for taxes but you but you've dealt with this reality having lived in a few places, chosen where you want to live, where you want to earn. It's a real factor, isn't it? Yeah, but the offset of having all the endorsement deals in New York City

would offset all that. Yeah, and I think he'd get basically a coach picked to groom him on a team that, as much as I hate saying it, will actually have a few pieces to get better faster. I don't think from a football perspective there's any argument for Jacksonville over the Jets. Both teams, by the way, their star players have abandoned them the last few years consistently.

But I think the Jets have a chance of keeping some good players and growing with a new coach. He should root for that. Yeah. I'm with a new coach. He should root for that. Yeah. I'm with you. It's all moot now because it ain't going to be the Jets. It's going to be Jacksville. So last question.

If the Jets end up with the number two pick, are they going with your boy Panay Sewell? And how do I say his name correctly? Because I want to say it another way. It's Panay Sewell. Thank you. Good question. say his name correctly because I want to say it another way it's it's Penae Sewell um good question um I would not draft him to move Makai Becton from left tackle like if that's your thought don't do that if you want to draft him put him right tackle fine um I would I would look at

trading out of that pick and getting more assets. It's a good offensive tackle class. You can trade back up and get Rashawn Slater from Northwestern. You just have many issues on your team, and the more picks you can get, the better your team will be. You'll hit on more of those guys. If you get three first-round draft picks, you're going to hit on two of the three. If you get one, it's 50-50. Who knows what's going to happen?

So I think they should trade out if they can. If they're at number two, then then yeah take penesol uh but if they're out of number two i think you have many more options okay well uh i don't know if that's good or bad news for me to hear as a jets fan but i want you to know jeff we started this show talking about uh the rain in los angeles uh or at least we could have been starting that way, because I don't know if you heard it in the background, but I'm going to point the microphone. Do you hear that sound? No. Well, that is the sound of torrential downpour in Los Angeles, something we rarely witness. So it's probably a sign that we should wrap it up and I got to go check to make sure my house is

not leaking. But enjoy the games the next few days and make some good bets would you uh hey we're making our way out buddy we had four straight winning weeks now we're almost back to 500 which is obviously like we're in the worst spot right we're not making anyone money because we're not you can't fade us you're not making money fading us you're not making money that's well the worst spot possible no you're you're just about even and uh you have good reasons for all your picks. So hopefully people listen to most of what you say and avoid some of your bad picks. And maybe they made a few bucks off of your ideas this year.

Who knows? Yeah, I think our last month we've been on, there's some lines this week I'll tell you right now that are utterly atrocious. Like they're, the Chargers are like getting 11 points this weekend in Kansas City. At least right now. The Chiefs aren't going to play anybody.

This makes no sense to me. Do not get it. Just letting you know right now, if you're listening to my voice, go get yourself some money on... The game's not even up right now. I don't think we're looking, but if you can, go find yourself some San Diego to LA Char even up right now, I don't think, where I'm looking. But if you can, go find yourself some San Diego,

some LA Chargers money right now. All right. If you made it this far into the show, you just got a hot tip. Go place some bets. Jeff, thanks for spending time with me and making me a little smarter today. I feel like I have a much clearer picture of both the AFC and the NFC. And we'll talk again next week. All right.

Sounds good. Have a great couple days. We'll be back. Last regular season gambling show of the week. All right. Sounds good. Have a great couple of days. We'll be back last regular season gambling show of the week. I'm looking forward to it. All right. Take care, everyone. Have a good one.