Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - The Bills Take Over the AFC, and The Chargers Gambles are Paying Off

Episode Date: October 12, 2021

Gabe sounds the panic alarm on the Chiefs after getting embarrassed at home by the Bills on Sunday night, but Geoff isn’t ready to count them out. Their defense is historically bad, but they still aren’t a team anyone wants to see in the playoffs. Josh Allen and Justin Herbert both had big games, but Baker Mayfield did not. Plus, Geoff is buying the Cowboys as contenders, as long as their defense keeps making plays.In Moving the Line, Gabe wonders how long it will take the media to start giving the Cardinals credit for their undefeated start, and Geoff says that the Bucs deserve to be Super Bowl favorites, but warns you not to forget about the Rams. Also, Russell Wilson is now more likely to ask out than Aaron Rodgers, and Gabe’s “ban kickers” suggestion is looking more enticing every week.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's tuesday october 12th i'm jeff schwartz alongside gabe gill and this is jeff schwartz a smart new powered by the varsity podcast network an incredible weekend of nfl action some are shuffling the top of the afc conference the cowboys are legit and gabe's idea to abolish kickers got a little bit more love as place kicking had a rough weekend in national football league but first a little breaking news before we get to Gabe. Raiders head coach, or former head coach now, John Gruden, resigned from his post as the coach of the Raiders after another report of more homophobic and misogynistic emails coming out on top of what came out about his email regarding DeMora Smith, the NFLPA president.

You guys can go find the story. You can read about it. You're not here to hear me talk about the emails. He had to go. This was a decision that had to be made. He knows it. Mark Davis knows it. He's out as a Raiders coach.

The question becomes, what happens to the Raiders now? Because I think this can be looked at as an attractive job in the future. Now, they're 3-2 right now. They started fast. They've kind of fizzled out. But they have Derek Carr, who's maybe playing the best ball of his career. And what happens next to this team, right?

I would imagine Gus Bradley takes over. The D coordinator who's been a head coach before. And the Raiders play the season out, right? The question becomes, obviously, are they a playoff team? I would argue no. I would argue no because at the end of seasons, John Gruden's very bad.

Well, John Gruden's gone now, right? So what happens with Gus Bradley in charge right now? The offense, we're going to suffer. The offense line's having some issues, and John Gruden was able to hide some of that. Didn't hide so much last weekend. Some of those issues with his play calling. Now, he's obviously not going to be there, right? So who's in charge of the offense, and does Gus Bradley do enough defensively

as we've seen them be better on defense this year after five games. So you have to kind of recalibrate, in my opinion, where they can be because of what John Gruden has really failed to do in his time in Oakland, really anywhere. Oakland, Vegas, even Tampa, like finished the season strong, which he has never done. So now that he's out, the Raiders are going to have to find a replacement.

And for this year, it's going to be Gus Bradley moving forward. Again, I think it's an attractive job. There's cap space available. You have Derek Carr there, obviously. There's pieces to work with. And it's Vegas. I mean, who doesn't want to coach in Vegas? Tough division, though, right?

With Mahomes and with Herbert, the two quarterbacks that look like they're, well, we know Mahomes is going to be the franchise in Kansas City, but Herbert, who looks incredible so far in his early career, and definitely people are talking about him as maybe the best quarterback in the National Football League. So again, you guys, you go find those emails. You don't come to me for listening to what to you know to what the reports are of emails and the contents of them but from a team perspective that's kind of where I stand on this

I think the players um will uh be welcome a change I don't think they would stand for what was said at all in any of these emails and uh I think you know just making a change like this I don't know if it's not gonna galvanize the team or fire them up, but it just has someone in the room that they respect. And that I assume will be Gus Bradley. And again, I don't know if it changes the trajectory of their season

other than I trust them a little bit more at the end of the season. Even though Gus Bradley's head coach wasn't all that great. He had that run with Jacksonville to answer championship game. But yeah,

this is what's happening with the Raiders. And now let's get to Gabe. Can kickers let's get it trending i i was not the only person thinking it i'm finally also not the only person saying it it's a take that i borrowed from a friend years ago and i'm i'm glad to see all of espn and fox spending time talking about how useless kickers are they were very useless yesterday um and my chiefs were useless in a lot of ways, too. They got blown out by Buffalo. And let's start with the Sunday night game.

Yeah, well, so I don't have any sound effects machine in front of me, so here goes. Wee-oo, wee-oo, wee-oo. That's your panic meter going off, Jeff. I said it a couple weeks ago. I'm saying it even louder now it is time to panic in kc the rematch of the afc championship game went very very poorly uh josh allen was literally hurtling your defense uh he looked awesome the bills are amazing the pats are two and three the whole or excuse me the chiefs are two and three. A Freudian slip. A Freudian slip.

Pat and the Chiefs are two and three. Almost all their skilled players look hurt. Their defense is atrocious. Meanwhile, the Bills are top in every metric the dorks follow, including DVOA, scoring, offense, and defense. They're outscoring opponents by 108 points. If you follow all the take makers, and I do it for you so this show is smarter, Jeff, they've basically all decided it's the Bills to lose now. Goodbye, Chiefs.

Sayonara. Well, it certainly is. And you know things are bad for the Chiefs when the talking point after the game is they only allowed seven points the second half. You're like, and by the way, the Chiefs allowed seven points the second half, and the lead grew because of the pick six, right? That was the ball, the tip ball.

Let's get out of this way. Bills played well, all right? Let's get that out of the way because Bills fans go, you didn't give us enough credit. You know,

Bills fans last night, it is kind of funny the cockiness with fan bases that have not won anything still. Like, this is always surprising me.

But that is, that's the game, right? The Chiefs right now are, have won the AFC two years in a row. Not going to happen this year, at least unless things change. But the Bills played well. Their defense did some good things. However, and we'll get into this in just a second,

the Chiefs offense had some issues. But, again, the Bills did a good job. They stayed in front of the Chiefs offense. Hey, you're not going to beat us deep. It was one play, really, which was an overthrow by Pat to Kelsey in the first drive. It was basically the only explosive play they had an opportunity for down the field.

And then offensively, they just had dudes wide open, which was great. I mean, Josh Allen had, what, 15 completions for 315 yards? Pretty incredible. But the story of the game, to me is is the chiefs not it's not really the bills winning the game is the chiefs getting their ass kicked on defense losing the game we talked about this defense for this entire season at least so far and their ineptitude i mean they're allowing over seven yards of play the best offense of all time um got like seven yards of play i mean it's they're incredibly

historically bad i know chris jones last i'm not sure what it mattered they can't rush the passer okay and mind you everyone they have more money on defense than offense there's more money spent on defense than offense frank clark's contract is the worst in all of football. Provides them nothing. So they can't rush the passer. And then their secondary can't do anything. And Dan Sorensen, poor guy, man. You put him up against anyone, and he's running free for now. There were three times, at least two times this game, I think once against the Ravens.

And the Chiefs just, it's not that they forgot how to play defense game. They're just dudes wide open. People want to credit Josh Allen. Yes, okay. He hit guys that were wide the fuck open. Like, I don't know what to tell you. They're wide open. Chiefs defense, what are we doing? Honey Badger's just like in the back of all these pictures like,

what are we doing defense? Guys are wide open. I actually thought they played the run pretty well, shockingly enough. And so the problem with this game is there's no solution, right? There's no player they can trade for. There's no player coming off injury reserve. There's no solution. The solution is, hey, guys, we've had five weeks now of terrible defense.

Can we at least just do our assignments? Look, we see some defenses from time to time that are bad, but they're sort of in the right place. They're just not good players. They're not even in the right place are bad but they're sort of in the right place they just don't have good players they're not even the right place right they're not even in the right they're not in the right spot they overrun stuff they misalign there's bad communication it's all bad on defense and what this is forcing the offense to be is forcing them to press and then we saw last night for the first time in Pat Mahomes career he was pressing to

make plays because the offense had to score 40 points to win the game. And we saw some throws last night from him that were so uncharacteristic. I mean, he threw some worm burners. He threw some balls a thousand miles an hour. He threw some ducks. The one I mentioned to Kelsey. And I think there were plenty of guys open. I need to go back and watch the film. It felt like guys were open, and he just missed them. We had two or three drops, right? We had the drop that went for an interception. I thought the Chiefs' offense could have been much better.

They can fix it, right? Catch the balls. Mahomes throws the ball a little bit better. Clyde Edwards-Hilaire is awful. I'm not glad it's hurt, never. But he's out for a couple weeks with MCL sprain. I think they'll have actually a better running game with him out. Their offense can be fixed, Gabe.

That's the one thing we know, okay? Their offense can be fixed. They had one down game out of a lot. And they're still number one in all the numbers for efficiency for offense. They're still a really good offense and they will be fine, but they have to be perfect. They have to be perfect. They have to each game come out

knowing they get eight possessions, nine possessions, 10 possessions, and they have to score six touchdowns, five touchdowns on those 10 possessions because their defense can't do anything. And one thing that is frustrating for the Chiefs, I would imagine, and for Andy Reid, is the undisciplined part of their team. So last night, they forced Buffalo to punt the ball after a turnover.

And it was like fourth and 26. They were punting the ball. And the ball was kicked. I think McColl Harmon picked it up, had a big return, like to 50. Offsides on the Chiefs. Why are we lining up offsides on a fourth and 29? You're trying to block the punt. You're doing punt return.

You're just going in there, fitting up, and blocking your guy. Why are you offsides? It's things like that that are killing this team, alongside the defense and the offense making errors. So people were dancing on Chiefs' grave as they should. Everyone can't wait to dance in Chiefs' grave. They've had the hardest schedule so far this season. They've had four playoff teams out of five.

The rest of their schedule, they're 21st in strength of schedule. So they should get a little ease up. They play Washington this weekend. Got to fix the turnovers, right? I mean, four more again. They're minus nine, I think, the last three weeks. It's ridiculous. You can't win with turnovers um i just it's there's not a good football team right now

i i didn't think they lost two games in 679 days and they've lost three in the last 21 days they're just not good football team right now no no they're not uh And those were a lot of interesting points. And even your special teams complaint is a nice distraction, Jeff, from what you really need to be acknowledging, which a whole lot of blue checks and people are paid to talk about football are saying. I want to hear you say it, too. Right now, Josh Allen looks better than Pat Mahomes. It's not just guys who are wide open. Josh Allen looks like the better overall quarterback than Patrick Mahomes. Contend with that. So if you have a playoff game to win,

who are you taking? Well, if I... I'm taking Pat Mahomes. You're taking Pat Mahomes. On this show, I am made to represent the internet. And here's what the internet should say. Dude, he's jumping over people.

He's throwing the ball all over the yard. He can do it all. Pat Mahomes is all washed. Man, it's not working anymore. It's Josh Allen's time. Before this game, Mahomes led the NFL in touchdowns. He was on pace for like for seems on pace for 60 touchdowns this year um you know 6 000 yards like something crazy now you know one bad half in the

second half and people lose their minds um iot's offense will be fine like i said um there was just i think he was trying to do too much and he has not been in a spot like this where so when when you when you play a soft zone as they as the um the bills did and they've done this before and they just last year against kansas city you have to run the football because there's less guys in the box and the defense is bailing out to go play the pass and And the Chiefs just can't run the football with Clyde Edwards-Hilaire. I mean, he looks scared running the ball. He's fumbled a bunch of times. He just looks like he's just not able to run efficiently and effectively.

And the run game looked better when he wasn't in. And now teams, this whole cover two thing, there's no surprise. This is what teams have done to Kansas City now for multiple years. And the Chiefs have found ways to do it because they run the ball efficiently enough and they find unique ways offensively to get the ball in the playmaker's hands. But the problem, obviously, is when things aren't going well um you kind of press a little bit right and you try to find ways to make plays that really aren't there and i feel like that's where the chief's offense is in right now and again they were fine up until

this game i don't think this is the end of the world for their offense but they're gonna have to score 35 points every week to win which is not good enough i mean it's you know it's hard to win that way uh yeah to underline that with a few more stats, and thanks to the team for throwing these in here. Kansas City has allowed 3.34 points per drive. That's last in the league. They're allowing first down on over 40% of all their plays. That's last in the league.

So bad, dude. They're allowing opponents the highest third down conversion rate in the league, and we already mentioned they're allowing 7.1 yards per play, the worst in NFL history so far. So, yeah, defense sucks. Offense probably will be fine. But because they lost the Bills and because they're off to a worse than expected start and because the Bills have a very easy schedule moving forward, something we talked about on this show a few weeks ago when i told you watch out buddy afc and going through arrowhead in fact the chiefs would be very lucky to even get to arrowhead at some point in january i think

they're playing on the road they probably won't they'll have to be on the road um the way all the way through um but but again like let's say they, they kind of write the ship and they go 12 and five, right. Which is possible to do or 11 and six, 10 and seven. Let's keep it realistic here. Why? Well,

they have the Raiders and Broncos four times. Still. There'll be favorite in all four of those games. They still have Washington. They have the giants, right? If those games. They still have Washington. They have the Giants, right? If they have Washington, they have the Giants. The Cowboys.

They have – they already put the Eagles. They have – they're going to win 10 games still. Okay. Okay. Just 10 and 7 isn't 10 and 6. I'm just saying. You said to me earlier this year, 10 and 7 probably doesn't do it. And in that division, we know it does. But in the AFC, it might, though.

Because if you look at the AFC right now, you have seven teams in. And you have the Chargers are going to probably win the division, right? The Chiefs, the Bills, the Browns, the Ravenss and whoever wins the South I mean there's not many who are the other teams that are making playoff pushes I mean I think you're making a reasonable point

which is that the AFC West getting a second place team as a wild card is pretty realistic three teams in there he the Raiders in there too right right so I'm just saying I'm just saying this when it comes to team as a wild card is pretty realistic. He can get three teams in there. He can get the Raiders in there too. Right. Right. So I'm just saying this. When it comes to January and the Chiefs have righted the ship a little bit. I don't know if the defense will continue

to be this bad. Maybe it will. I mean, we see a lot of times you kind of, you fix a couple things. You play a little better. They're professionals. They play better in the second half. Are you going to be comfortable if you are a Browns fan, you're the two seed if you are a Browns fan, you're the two seed, and here come the Chiefs to your stadium on wildcard weekend, are you going to feel great about hosting the Chiefs

and Pat Mahomes no matter how bad the defense is in a playoff game in your state? The answer is no. You're going to be terrified, right? And that's what Pat Mahomes can still do. Now, they have to fix things, right? Again, too many mistakes, defense atrocious, offense just, again, just do your part, right?

Just make your plays, right? Do your job, as Belichick always says. But I think they're going to be okay. I mean, look, their schedule is Washington. They should win. We'll give them a W. Okay, at Tennessee. W.

Okay. Giants W so now there are four and three Packers at home that would be five and three five and three yes

Packers at home loss okay five and four at the Raiders win oh the Cowboys interesting now

we'll give the Cowboys we gotta give them a loss if we're giving them wins some of those other things we're giving them a loss yeah okay Broncos Raiders at the Chargers Steelers Cowboys is interesting now. We'll get a Cowboys. We got to give them a loss. If we're giving them wins at some of those other things, we're giving them a loss. Yeah. Okay.

Broncos, Raiders, as the Chargers, Steelers, Bengals, Broncos. They're going to win 10 games. They're going to win out. Well, okay. So here we go. Steelers, Bengals, Broncos means they're barely, that we're scared to death in week like 15. Then they win three in a row.

They're red hot going into the playoffs. They're healthy. Their defense wakes up and boom, they're in the AFC championship. championship yes that's what you're counting on they're bama i asked you this during the game are they the same team i mean i mean i'm i'm basically saying that like that i think people are are writing them off a little bit too soon as that they have no chance to do anything this year which i don't think they do but the overreaction of course is the chiefs suck and this is over and the run's over and as that they have no chance to do anything this year, which I don't think they do. But the overreaction, of course, is the Chiefs suck, and this is over, and the run's over,

and they're not going to win any games, any more games, and the playoffs are done. I'm like, guys, let's just, let's kind of, let's, I don't think you'd want to see them in the playoffs. No, I certainly don't think you would. And you mentioned the Browns as a two seed certainly don don't want them turning up in Cleveland because we'll shift gears because they're supposedly great defense. Ain't it either.

My chargers. That's right. My chargers look like to me, they look like Tom Cruise and Dustin Hoffman combined in rain, man. They can do the math. They have the swag. Okay.

They went three for three on fourth down. They had multiple comebacks, multiple comebacks to beat their rounds. 47, 42 in LA felt like a big game, but this time relevant. Yeah. Big, excuse me. Felt like a big 12 game, but this time relevant. Jeff, I'm here to say it. This was supposed to be the bronze medal game of the weekend.

Chargers look to me like the gold medal team in the conference. Give me Herbert and Staley over anyone right now. Debate me, Jeff. So we'll go to the Chargers in just a second. I want to talk about the Browns very quickly. Oh, come on. Who cares? No, because it's important to note because people are kind of getting the wrong impression of the Browns for just a second.

Okay, the Browns I think are good up to a point. All right? They've lost two games down to playoff teams up double digits in the second half. And in those games, I charted this, in the first half of those games, their offenses scored on seven of nine possessions. Chiefs and Chargers. The second half of those games, they scored on three of 12 possessions. So just follow that away, Browns fans. You have a little bit of issue closing out some of these games against good teams just just just follow

that away so Chargers the Chargers took this game from the Browns right up up Browns up 27 13 Chargers just kept plugging away defensively they can't stop the run which we know already but it doesn't matter often because they're ahead of games that can rush the passer. They had some weird stuff on defense. They let Najoku bounce off a guy, get a 70-yard touchdown pass. The screen game for the Browns was great and whatnot. But in the end, it's proven that Justin Herbert's that dude, man. He is good. And it's impressive to see how quickly he's become good.

And it starts, obviously, with what happened last year. But really, the new coaching staff and Brandon Staley, the aggressiveness with which they play brings this team confidence, right? It makes them feel like they can play with ease and play free. It makes them feel like their coach has their back, right? They're always going for it. Score points, score points, score points. And the mindset of that makes your offense uber confident. And look, the right side of the offensive line is not good, but Rashawn Slater has been a slam dunk

home run. He told his running back to stop helping him on Myles Garrett. And it was less about him not needing it and more about if you're left tackle you're going to block and you have a plan on miles garrett and the running back shows up to chip miles gets going to go inside now so that plan you had gets ruined by the back not always if you know the back's going to be there maybe you you know you don't go as far in the back helps you but the worst thing game is when the running back tries to chip when you don't know he's going to be there. And Rashawn Slater allowed a sack,

and this happened in the game, where he's blocking Garrett, doesn't know the back is there, and Garrett goes inside for a sack. Otherwise, he was fine. So he's like, leave me alone. I'm going to block Garrett by myself. The only issue I see with their team is run defense

and the right side of their offensive line. But when you have only one problem, like right tackle, you can scheme up that. And Herbert knows that's where the issue is. He knows he never has to worry about the left tackle, ever. Ever in his life. The rest of his career, those two are paired up. Never have to worry about the left tackle.

And so this team, I love the aggressiveness. I love their attitude. And this is what good coaching can do right we heard brandon staley talk this week about why they run the football it was beautiful i mean it was music to me it was just like so it was exactly what i've been trying to say for seven years now um and they're dude they're good there's not much more to say about the chargers other than they're really good the browns now have lost two games double digits leading the second half and not finishing games very well third and ten men they ran the football it feels very anti-Baker right there right like we don't trust a quarterback to throw

the ball in third and ten well a few of the other throws he had to make in the final minute or two made me think there's a reason not to trust him to get you down the field. I feel like I was exactly right on what Baker Mayfield is. I'm going to give you, you know, reluctantly here, two pieces of credit. One, you have consistently been right about Baker. He is good, not great. He's missing that 5% needed to be the best team in a conference or a Super Bowl champ. That seems very true after a couple of years of watching him. And you were more right than anyone else. There's a few who

were with you on Baker, but you were the most right about your boy, Justin Herbert. A lot of people were like, oh, why him? And, you know, why use the pick there? And we're like, I'm not convinced that this guy had it. He obviously looks like the best quarterback drafted in recent years and he's doing it with a rookie head coach and a new coordinator in a new offense so how is he doing this like how is one guy this good this fast um okay so let's go back to college i mean this thing we've all we've all you know rehashed now essentially right so the one thing that that rehashed now essentially right so the one thing that that coaches love talking about behind the scenes is if they have kind of a turd on their team right they have the guy that's not a leader and they don't want to put their name on a guy who's not a good leader right because it

looks bad for them if they get drafted and and um and the player is not good. So Justin Herbert is a quiet kid, right? And I tried to find anyone in that program who would say one negative thing about him. Anyone, coach, player, media member, someone who played or knew him, and no one said one thing about his leadership style. In fact, they all praised it. So I knew that was kind of bullshit.

But the question became, what about his play in college? And I've watched every snap of Oregon now for four years. And I watched that offense, the Marcus Arroyo offense, who's now the head coach at UNLV, who hasn't won a game in two years. And their offense was really bad. And he had no pro wide receivers for two years. And so I said, look said look guys let's get him in a pro offense with some pros and see what happens and that's all i said was i think he can be really good but he might need some time he's obviously accelerate that very quickly but it's it dude he i think there's still some issue with a little bit of touch on his football he throws a freaking howitzer this sometimes but a little bit of touch is good but i think his his calmness

and his coolness under pressure is underrated right like it's okay to be just like q as a cucumber and he is man he's he's wonderful and i love watching play i'm very happy for him yeah cool is the right word for him and it's good to hear you explain why he's emerged this quickly i just want to ask about a few things here. So Staley gets talked about a lot on the broadcast, not a lot by, you know, the take makers, because he's kind of an unknown still. And he's like a, you know, a dorky coach who barely any of us have any quotes from yet, but this whole going for it basically all the time, which I love because it means no kicking. So there's that.

But also, he pretty much just goes for it nonstop. And Herbert is incredible on third down, probably because he knows, hey man, I got another down coming. So he can just, that's where the Tom Cruise part of that analogy comes out. But they have this thing down to a science now. And other teams are going for it more and more. But it seems like the Chargers have the best plan on third and long and then fourth and anything in the league and so i wonder is that because herbert is exceptional or does that give a quarterback

more outs more ability more ways to look special well obviously if you're converting on fourth down those are high leverage plays and you're going to look even better in the eyes of everyone who watches the game, right? But I think what he's doing on third or fourth down is excellent. His ability to see the defense and know what his answers are to the defense, right, is pretty awesome. That takes high-level awareness.

He's very bright. We know that. I had a discussion today with Darius Butler, former longtime defensive back on Twitter about fourth down. He said that if he ran a team today with with darius butler who former longtime defensive back on twitter about about fourth down because he said that if he ran a team he'd spent a whole period in practice on fourth down and i said well offensively we don't we don't need that period but i mean if you need it defensively go ahead you know so you have one or two plays you like on fourth down right i would say that on fourth and two to five,

and maybe a little later, you're going to get a lot of man coverage and pressure, right? So you have kind of your man coverage beaters. And once you run a couple of them, then you just run your offense on fourth down. Like, you know, there's not like this special playbook that we have saved up for fourth down plays. You just call what you like.

And in certain situations, I think they ran a play yesterday where it looked like an RPO with Cook in the flat. Maybe that was on a fourth down. Maybe it was later in the game when they were trying to final drive. It was like an important, whatever it was. But you guys just have these plays. I'm getting confused now.

You just have these plays that you like and you go to in big moments. You don't need a whole period to practice them, but you're just running your offense. Herbert can execute that offense a very high level and again fourth down there are tendencies like I said if it's fourth and ten probably a lot of zone if it's fourth and two to three uh four to five getting a lot of man coverage pressure because I think you want that ball out quickly you're trying to force the quarterback into making mistakes um and and the chargers are are doing all the little things right um and they're taking this analytical approach to building the roster and to gain into game management and it's paying off for them i don't

have we ever said in the last three or four years of the revolution going for a fourth down have we ever said like that team just does it too much not Not really, right? I mean, in the end, it ends up feeling it works out in the end, I think. Yeah, I mean, until you have something to lose, why not just roll the dice, man? I mean, that's why I love it. I mean, they're the guy at the blackjack table who's making the crazy move, except that the dealer's nodding his head saying, yeah, that's the right thing to do. You know, like they're not doing this without the stats to back it. So it feels like gambling but it's really not so let me ask you this the you know the conversation about

Herbert is very excited this week because finally I think a lot of people saw him on display I've been watching closely as you know I'm a longtime Chargers fan you know I've just been with him forever uh I saw this Jimmy Johnson over at fox said this and i i don't laugh don't in fact take a sip of water so you can spit it out as i say this um if i was drafting the nfl today out of all the players my number one pick would be justin herbert over mahomes is that taking it too far because it doesn't even necessarily seem crazy to me like if you wanted to start now wouldn't you start with justin herbert i mean i think people would still take my homes i think i mean i don't know why i mean herbert has has not won a playoff game he's not the mvp yet

um god the overreactions to this is just wild, man. Oh, geez. I mean, they scored 47 on a defense that supposedly was the best in the conference. Look, I think that his physical traits, his physical traits. You're talking about his hair, right? His hair, of course, yes. I mean, his physical traits are elite. Like, they're better than Mahomes, right? His size, his arm strength is better.

I think Mahomes puts a little bit better touch on the ball at times um you know his pre-snap is his pre-snap awareness is elite I mean like come on why do we do this like why do we do these why do we have these takes of like who we take first this is supposed to be a a June discussion right when we when we make these discussions I don don't know. I think people will still take Mahomes. Alright. Well, then let me ask you this. This can't be a June take. This has to be an October take.

We just spent time talking about the Bills look better than the Chiefs, but don't the Chargers look better than the Chiefs and maybe the Bills as well? I mean, they've all played pretty tough schedules to start. If you go through each of their schedules, none of the three of them have had an easy start to the season.

The Chargers look to me like the best of all of them. Yeah, the Chargers deserve the love they're getting. They look fabulous. I think their defense, again, the run defense a little bit worries me, but it was a high-scoring contest. And again, the grit to come back, right? I mean, it's pretty impressive to fight back in a game when your defense was just allowing the Browns to march down the field on you.

Yeah. All right. Well, obviously, look, Herbert is there to stay. We know that he's still playing on a rookie deal. He's got some time left on that, and that factors into why anyone would take him over Mahomes to start a team right now. Bottom line,

you like them to win the division. You like the chiefs to sneak in. You like the bills for the one seed. And we're going to have a hell of a divisional round in the AFC. That's what you're telling me. Yes, it's going to be, it's going to be a fun division around.

That's some good football teams. All right. So then let's switch over to the NFC. We're going to get to some other winners like the packers and the cards and a few others but we're doing a football show here uh a football show about takes which means we got to talk about the cowboys so the boys won again they're on a on heater right now um they beat up the giants so i guess people wanted to talk themselves into thinking because it was in division this was going to be a close game the giants are terrible and their whole team it was 10 to 10 before jones got hurt and okay they cover a lot of games on the road all right

that's why oh this is gambling jeff sneaking in well i don't well i'm not sure gambling jeff should be talking ever again so um i i don't know why you would take my gambling advice. I'm just saying that's why people like yours truly took the Giants plus seven. Okay, but as soon as we saw them actually playing for four quarters, it was obvious that the Cowboys are pretty good and the Giants are atrocious. And the Giants without a quarterback or running back, a couple of receivers, and God knows what else they might be missing, and the unnamed players. They couldn't keep up.

But the Cowboys look good. So that means everybody, including my buddy Skip Bayless, Mike Lervin, of course, pretty much everyone who covers football on a Monday on ESPN or Fox are all in on the Cowboys. They want to believe that the Cowboys are going to be going deep into the postseason because we all know that's good for business. Jeff, they're not real, are they? Like, they're just not.

Don't try to convince me that this team is actually a competitor in the NFC. So you used, I believe, DVOA earlier for Buffalo Bills, right? Number one in DVOA. Do you know who's number two in DVOA? Probably the Cowboys, if you're asking me right now. Dallas Cowboys are, yeah. Yeah, they're they're really good damn it you know I I said before the season my favorite wager of my lifetime was

Dak to a comeback player of the year I mean this that he's gonna run away with this but I talked in general about the Cowboys and my thoughts on the Cowboys were this if Dak comebacks healthy come comes back healthy, the offense will be one of the best in the NFL. And it is. He's really good. They welcome back two Hall of Fame offensive linemen. Kind of nice to have Teron Smith and Zach Martin back. Terrence Steele's filled in well for Lyle Collins

at right tackle. Their offense is legit. But we talked about what else had to happen for them to be good. And it was their defense just being average. Just being average. That's it. Get some stops. Force some be good. And it was their defense just being average. Just being average. That's it. Get some stops, force some turnovers.

And they're above average right now. And this is the recipe. You don't have to have them win defense and win the Super Bowl. Just need defense to force some turnovers, get some stops, and put your offense on a short field. And right now, Dallas is every bit as good as we are saying they are. And that's why the hype train will continue to grow and grow and grow. Now, if they go to New England this weekend,

that'll be an interesting contest for them as all the hype is growing around them, right? Like, can they go to New England now, probably cold and a little dreary, and play outside and play a game when everyone thinks they're going to blow the Patriots out, right? Is it a test for be able to haven't played a game like this in a long time but last time I went to New England didn't go very well um so I um I I am a believer in the

Cowboys I like what they're doing and I think it's sustainable all right so then if you're going to talk about having at least an average defense, then the thing that might make the case for them having above average defense or at least one great player is Trevon Diggs, who has six interceptions in five games, right? So he's a controversial figure because players and people who just watch the game casually see the stats and see the plays and go, oh, my God, this guy's unreal.

But then dorks, oh my God, this guy's unreal. But then dorks, the people you follow, will point out all kinds of things that he doesn't do well. He pads stats, but he actually allows a ton of yards, like record-setting amount of yards allowed on his side. So is their defense actually a unit, or do they just have one or two guys who can run around and make plays for themselves? I think they're a unit that is they just have one or two guys who can run around and make plays for themselves i think they're a unit that is um playing quality football yes digs a lot a lot of yards but he has the bunch of interceptions but they're playing faster than they played last year right they

playing faster and a couple guys are playing well like randy gregory for example who had a long bout with suspensions for marijuana he's playing fabulous like he's gonna get paid a lot of money by jerry jones at some point um and so they're getting these these contributions right from guys that i don't know if they expected to be this good this year renny gregory michael parsons has filled in very well as a rookie again digs was not very good last year now all of a sudden he's a ball hawk and another pick six by brown yesterday again it they don't have to be perfect on defense if a team has 10 possessions just make sure they only score touchdowns on three of them right and then your then your offense will score 28 35 points

each week and that's what they're doing that's all they're doing and it's all they have to do okay so i think what you're telling me is a few people might be getting a little carried away you know if they want to start fitting them for another ring and and talking about how how great they are but you're kind of on the hype train yeah i was wondering if you'd zig or zag on this so you're you're mostly with the other guys who are talking about the cowboys today that's uh yeah i mean i'm not going to come out of cowboy jersey like skit bayless is going to do in one of the shows today but i am i am buying it yes all right and then on the other side real quick because they got a big fan base. The Giants, Dynamite, what are we doing here?

Because I feel like they've got a bunch of first-round guys who we all keep waiting for, and bad stuff keeps happening. I don't mean to say injuries is the same as not playing well. But boy, they can't really stay healthy, and they don't really perform. So blow it up in New York. What's happening there? Well, I mean, mean look the injuries obviously are affecting this game with Jones getting hurt uh the Barkley injury doesn't change my opinion about

this team at all other than you know betting his under every year as Matt and I have done has been the best wager we've made is under for rushing yards um for a team again a team that preaches discipline right you had a player punch someone had another player at the end of the game, last part of the game, kind of started a little ruckus. Like, where's the discipline at, man? Like, where is this at? So, you know, Joe Judge has won seven games now in a year and a half.

It was like one game against a winning team, which was against, who'd they beat? The Seattle Seahawks last year with Colt McCoy, the quarterback. It wasn't even with Daniel Jones. So I don't know, man. I'm like tired of talking about Joe Judge. To me, do we talk about any other coach

who's won seven games in two years like we talk about Joe Judge? I'm just like, it's a boring subject to me. He's just, he's not a good coach and I'm tired of talking about it each week. I would prefer we never talk about him ever again. If I looked up his resume, we're going to put him in the Colts and Carson Wentz bucket soon.

It basically says, you know, Patriots intern, and then some other make-believe job. And then voila, he's the head coach of the New York Giants. So we're done with him as far as I'm concerned. The season's a wash. Cowboys look for real. We'll keep an eye on them the next few weeks. You know, we'll keep talking about them. They're running the ball like crazy. Diggs is a defensive player of the year, front runner. So plenty to discuss there. Let's take a quick break though and talk about one team in the NFC,

at least, who's definitely better and maybe two teams who would keep the Cowboys out of the Super Bowl. We'll do that when we move the line. That's next. and maybe two teams who would keep the Cowboys out of the Super Bowl. We'll do that when we move the line. That's next. Jeff, welcome back to Jeff Schwartz is Smarter Than You, your own show. It's time for a little over-under game. We are moving the line with a few more topics.

I mentioned the Cardinals. Let's talk about them. They are the only undefeated team, and now they have a dominant defense, too. We always knock their D, but it looks pretty good. So I want to know, weeks before the media realizes J.J. Watt is on the team and he starts to get all the credit for their success, over under.5 weeks. Never. No one is going to follow the Cardinals. I mean, anything about it is – I'm sorry, Cardinals fans, if you insist the truth.

Again, I think – I was talking with someone about this yesterday who was kind of bragging about Cliff Kingsbury. And again, like, I need to see them finish strong. I got to see him do it. In eight years, he's never had a team that finished strong. That's it. Like, just show me it's going to happen. Show me it's going to happen.

Again, Texas Tech, you lose five of five in the season. Six of eight. Seven of eight. Six of eight. You know, you start three, three, and one a couple years ago. You finish Six of eight. Seven of eight. Six of eight. Start three, three, and one a couple years ago. You finished six and ten. Or six, nine, and one. Last year, start six and three.

Finish eight, eight. Just show me the finish. Right now, just show me the finish. Finish strong. Okay. You've been clear. You're not a big believer in Cliff Kingsbury. And I'm not all the way on the cards bandwagon.

But they're the only undefeated team. They have the MVP at quarterback. Nobody's doubting their offense, and their defense is sneaky good. I think Herbert will win the MVP right now, but sure. Okay, fair enough. I'm not going to dispute that long-time Chargers fan over here. But the Cardinals, I was half kidding about J.J. Watt, but he's not getting a lot of stats

but he's apparently clogging up a lot of linemen and Chandler Jones is running wild and Buda Baker's a good player and they're kept the Niners to 10 they stopped him on fourth a bunch of times they stopped him the goal line unbelievable goal line stop a podcast isn't the right place to discuss that but I think that defense might be for real Jeff Jeff. And I think maybe Cliff Kingsbury just, as long as he doesn't screw it up, they really can walk through the NFC. Well, they played a tough division. I mean, that's, that's, but they've already won two division games, right? The Rams and the Niners.

That's obviously a very good start. Yeah. Oh man. Yeah. I mean, they, look, they're, they're going to be hard to deny, right? Especially since I took their eight, their under eight and a half wins is one of my favorite plays this year. Someone on Instagram.

I don't know how people... Okay, how do people do this? So, like, I put out a video in September on my favorite bets of the season, like 12 of them from Fox Sports. And, like, someone went and commented on it today. Like, before you delete it, I saw you picked the Cardinals under eight and a half wins.

I'm like, how are you finding that? Are you going to my page and searching videos? Like, what are we doing? I'm so confused. I don't, dude, I don't save tweets. People find tweets of mine from like months ago. I'm like, I don't know how you found this tweet. I don't, I don't, I can't find my own tweet that I sent a week ago.

How do you find this stuff? What are people, how do they do this, Gabe? I mean, there's all kinds of ways. I think it's for a different podcast called Gabe Goodwin is smarter than you. Although even I probably am not the guy to host the social media podcast any longer. We'll find you some young person who can explain search functions on social platforms. I don't want to get distracted, though. You don't like the Cardinals. That's evident. But you're starting to admit that they're going to be hard to beat. So let me go to the next topic. Bucs.

Bucs win the Super Bowl over under 25% chance. The updated odds, by the way, they're the favorite in the NFC now after another big win, 11-2 odds. Any chance that it's not them? I mean, as of right now, the other team I would take would be the Cowboys. What? To win the whole damn thing or to win the NFC? If you win the NFC, you have a chance to win the Super Bowl, right?

Wait, are you talking about NFC? They're the overall Super Bowl champion favorites again. It's not the Chiefs anymore. It's not the Bucs. I'm not surprised. You know who, according to Football Outsiders, has the best quarterback so far this season? Nope. Tom Brady. Oh, God. Yeah to Football Outsiders, has the best quarterback so far this season? Nope.

Tom Brady. Oh, God. Yeah. He's doing it, by the way. We talked about it a few weeks ago. He is going for 55, 56 on the touchdown record. He doesn't need to throw as many as he is. He's doing it.

He had 400 yards and five touchdowns yesterday. Yeah, and didn't need half of them to win that game. No, he's going for it. I told you he's going for it. All right, so the Bucs being the Vegas favorite all of a sudden doesn't surprise you at all. I don't know, man. I feel like what's going to happen, and I hope this happens, people are going to kind of forget about the Rams,

and they're going to make it to the postseason with like 13, 14 wins. But they aren't going to have Tom Brady. They aren't going to be maybe the Cardinals keep this up for a little longer. They aren't going to have that kind of action. I think it could be the Rams out of the NFC, but who knows? I mean, they quietly won Thursday night, right? They played well. It's a tough place to play on the road.

They're one loss to the Cardinals in a game after Tampa Bay, right, where they kind of just, like, didn't show up, I would say. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if the Rams are in the championship game. And the better and better that those two LA teams get, the less and less you're going to hear the story be that the visiting team brought more fans. It already started to tilt, right? The Browns didn't show up with the same amount of fans as the Cowboys did.

And if the Chargers or Rams are, you know, six, seven, eight, and one teams, you're not going to see a bunch of road teams. How many people do you know in Los Angeles that are legitimate Charger fans? Okay. So me, my whole family, that's five people right there. We're very legitimate Chargers. I'm sure your wife is a giant Chargers fan. Big Chargers fan big chargers

fan loves the chargers um the i don't know a single other chargers fan i love how like i know you don't watch as much football as i do it's definitely not your life as it is mine last week um so organ organ lost to stanford right two weekends ago and there's a dad and my son's baseball team is Oregon State fan. We talk a lot about football. It's a lot of fun. He's a very nice guy. And so on last Monday, so they lost, you know, they lost on Saturday and then Monday we're at practice.

And I always have to leave practice a little early to go to my radio job. So my wife comes and picks up Alex. So on Tuesday, Alex has a game. And the dad comes up to me and says, hey, I went up to your wife last night. I said, hey, tough loss for Oregon. And your wife kind of looked at me strange and said, I don't know.

I was like, yeah, she doesn't pay attention. She has no idea what's happening. Just zero idea what's happening. None whatsoever. So if I said I was a Chargers fan, my wife had Chargers. Oh, oh, oh oh the team with the lightning bolt on their helmet yeah san diego sure whatever you say um just no idea so it's kind

of it's good and bad you know the bad is hey football's on tonight oh really again yeah um good good well you can always make it seem like it's super important that you watch oh i've it took me when we're retiring now five years it's taken me about five years for to realize i have to actually watch football to cover it not everyone does uh speaking of which the source of some of the rumors that i'm about to bring up come from the guys who maybe don't watch as closely we'll go through this next few quickly to keep people uh on time more likely to end up in denver or pitts Pittsburgh one day, Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers?

We're keeping this alive. Rodgers, but I think Russell Wilson is going to want out. Like they're just not good. Yeah, so he's hurt. He's going to miss several weeks this year. And I don't think they're going to be in any position for him to want to return. And then I think he's going to reconsider. Is this where I want to play the final quarter of my career?

Yeah. So you see him moving. Is Pittsburgh the place the place though for russell for aaron either one uh yeah pittsburgh i don't know how they're going to get them i don't know what assets they have available but yes i think if you want to go to a winning franchise um who has a defense and who has been you know again willing to win and take what and necessary to win, yes. I think the defense would play even better with a real quarterback who can actually help them. And a great coach. So until

this season and their defense crapping the bed, you would have just been describing the team in Washington. Good coach, great defense, right pieces in place, pretty easy division too. And now nobody probably wants to go there, right? They just don't look the same.

No, they don't. All right. Do you think there's any chance Aaron Rodgers now after these last four wins is feeling a little bit better about where he is? Like the Jeopardy dream has died. I don't think, see again, I never thought he hated Green Bay like people made it out to be, like he hated Green Bay. He's going to be back in Green Bay next year.

Okay. I mean, they barely, barely, barely snuck it out against the Bengals yesterday. But sometimes you win ugly games. Like, it's okay. Okay. Target share 38% to Devontae Adams. Is that a good or bad thing? Just one guy being your whole offense.

I would imagine he hopes someone else can be helpful in that category. Yeah. It seems weird to me that like maybe it makes him really happy and comfortable it also seems like boy what happens if this guy isn't around um jeff a couple quickies on the way out odds we get a better sports weekend this fall one percent um probably not it was it was a wild ride college sports nfl the fight which i i don't even i didn't know the fight existed until Friday. Man, of course I complain about my gambling a lot because it's been really bad this year.

But that Iowa-Penn State game just sent me over the edge because I nailed that game and then Sean Clifford got hurt and now Iowa thinks they're good, which they're not, and it's just very upsetting. So another bad gambling weekend. I did go 4-0 in the Pac-12, though, so maybe that's evening out. Maybe just focus on then, then. Don't mess with the Big Ten.

No one gives a shit about the Pac-12 picks I make. I care, Jeff. I can't go on this podcast and just tell you who I think was going to win Colorado-Arizona, two winless teams. I think Arizona covers the Sixers this weekend. But I'm not going on there. I'm not spending the entire podcast uh varsity podcast network would not like me to spend the entire time talking about arizona colorado well unless you're making us money so we're willing we're willing to fair

enough yeah all right last one for you seasons till we uh officially cancel kickers over under 1.5 seasons this gonna pick up? Do you want to give the Lions stat or do you want me to do it? Go ahead. The Lions are the only team to lose two games on last second field goals that are 50 yards and over in one season. So it's happened in two or three weeks. Yeah, so we know that that's

one fan base. The Packers, even though Mason Crosby did hit one to win the game, boy, a lot of kicking mishaps led to that even being close. We had, I think, 11 or maybe 12 missed extra points yesterday. The Chargers, thank God, take the ball out of the hands of their kicker when it matters. They just go for it.

I mean, kicking took a gigantic L this weekend at all levels, but especially in the NFL. It's got to end, right? Like, nobody wants this. I mean, I it's got to end, right? Like nobody wants this. I mean, I'm getting closer to your point. This is the lowest extra point percentage in years. It will say though,

it isn't making the games more hectic, but if we want chaos, let's go for it on fourth down. I mean, that's if all we want is entertainment, what do we want to see a guy kicking it for? Yeah, I'm not,

I get your point, right? Boom. Yes it it would be but it would make gambling though not as much fun right because then you just like all these like mixed extra points make things a little unique at the end more bad beats if these scores the everything we've ever learned about scores i told this to matt yesterday like we're so bad we don't even sweat the end of games. Like, our wages are lost, like, in the middle of the fourth quarter. Like, there's no, like, oh, my God, I need a backdoor cover. It's like, well, the team we bet on is down by 17 with three minutes left. Shucks.

So, maybe we do need to – you know what? I'm going to blame kickers for my bad gambling streak. There you go. That's whatever it takes to get you on board. Screw you, kickers. It's all your fault. All right. Well, we will be back with a gambling podcast next week, folks.

I mean, next week. This Thursday. So be on the lookout for that. Chiefs are going to be fine, everyone. Take a deep breath. Deep breath of acceptance. Defense is bad. Offense will be much better.

deep breath of acceptance defense is bad offense will be much better bills cowboys bucks crown of their conferences we still have 12 weeks left we've only played five that extra week's gonna screw us up we actually have 13 weeks left of the nfl season um so there's plenty left as usual we are powered by the varsity podcast network Go check out the other podcast in this wonderful network. I'm Jeff Schwartz for Gabe Goodwin. This is Jeff Schwartz. This morning, you please rate, review, subscribe. Talk to you guys on Thursday.