Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - The PromoGuy and Producer Nick join Geoff LIVE

Episode Date: June 21, 2023

Geoff is back with a special guest episode. He's joined by the PromoGuy, a +EV gambling expert, to talk through his strategy for wagering on sports, the best ways to make money this football season, sports books coming to North Carolina, and so much more. Also joining the show is the PromoGuy's co-host, a familiar name for long time GSSY listeners... Producer Nick makes his triumphant return to the pod to fill in Gabe's seat for Moving the Line.Be sure to rate, comment, and follow the pod for a new episode every other week during the offseason. Plus, check out @geoffschwartz on Twitter for the live video shows.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's tuesday july excuse me tuesday june 20th i'm jeff schwartz this is jeff schwartz is tomorrow you were started with me just for now doing something a little different today hope you guys like it hope to do more of this in the future with some guests and different topics to bring up here we're gonna talk today mostly about sports wagering it's a topic that we talk a lot about during football season we have one dedicated episode per week talking about the nfl and college football we'll kind of dive deeper today with the promo guy with producer Nick, who have their own podcast together about sports gambling. We'll get a little bit deeper in what certain things mean, how the promo guy does his business and the podcast that he has. But first, I don't know

if you guys have heard kind of my journey through sports wagering and why it's important to me and why it's something I cover now and as part of my job for Fox Sports, for my own podcast, for different things that I do in radio as well. When I played, as this is a topic that we talk about a lot now because NFL players continue to not understand the policies, there was no legal sports wagering. So there was no wagering on anything when you played. I knew the policy, but I always had this kind of itch for sports wagering, something I kind of followed along, not for my games. I never knew what the spread was for any of my games or really for any NFL games. I knew some college games, but I kind of kept an eye on what the lines were for certain things. And then when I got done playing,

I got a call from the Action Network that was starting up because the Supreme Court was going to allow sports wagering to be a thing we could do in this country. And I started working for Action Network. I was there in 2018 and we launched a show called I'll Take That Bet. It's where I met Gabe and Matt who run Blue Duck, who do this podcast with me there for many years. We had a show called I'll Take That Bet, worked for Action Network for a year. I loved it. I learned a lot about the sports wagering process. And then since then, I've grown to love it and kind of find my niche, right? There are a lot of former players that talk sports wagering, that kind of sell promos and work for gambling companies, but don't actually like dive deep into it.

That's what I've been doing now for five years. It's been a lot of fun. And I hope you enjoy this episode as we kind of dive a little bit deeper in the way you can make money. Sports Waging, which is very difficult to do, and the way that the promo guy is able to kind of put forth a product to help you all out. As I mentioned, Blue Duck promo guy and Nick all working together. Nick used to be a producer on this show way back when. He's now working with the promo guy.

And let's welcome everyone in now and talk about everyone oh there's there's producer Nick Nick it's it's been quite a come-up buddy you were you were Hank on this show like four years ago now I'm Hank on another show it's good to be back though it really does feel like a completing the circle here. Yeah. And the promo guy, welcome into the program, buddy. Glad to have you. Hey, Jeff.

Thanks for having me on. Really appreciate it. Excited to be here. Yeah. I'm glad to talk to you guys about your podcast and what you guys do. So it's been about five years now since the Supreme Court reversed the gambling policy extension, right? May, early May of 2018. Were you gambling before this or did this kind of become your walk of life after the

Supreme Court decision? I gambled for fun, but it was not a huge part of my day to day. but it was not a huge part of my day-to-day. For me, it was really when gambling legalized and during COVID, I was in Pennsylvania where sports betting was legal. Normally, I live in New York, but in pandemic, I was in Philly. I signed up for a couple of books, took advantage of their opening offer, their sign-up offer, and just started betting the promos. I thought a few of them were

pretty interesting. I was able to find the best ways to play them and made a few grand a month. Then from there, maybe about eight months later, is when I started the Twitter account. I realized that nobody was doing this, and people, for the most part, hated on the promos.

I was like, well, this is how you play them. These are the plays. Everyone should be doing this and people for the most part, like hated on the promos. And I was like, well, this is how you play them. These are the plays like, you know, everyone should be doing this. I'm glad you have this because I was in a state in December, I forget which one it was that had legal sports wager. I'm not in a state currently where I live that will have that has it. And so I tried to log on to different, you know, different providers, and I did not understand the promos and thought it was kind of daunting to figure out which one was the best one.

So how do you kind of narrow down this is kind of what you want to give consumers, right, to be able to let them know, hey, these are the best promos. Here's where you get some money, and here's how to do it correctly. Yeah, so the sign-up promos are a little different. So I'll start with just sort of my normal process and EB betting. how to do it correctly. Yeah, so the sign-up promos are a little different. So I'll start with just sort of my normal process and EV betting. So EV betting basically is just EV saying for expected value is finding plays that are positive expected value

relative to the implied probabilities that the rest of the books give. So for the Super Bowl, if Chiefs-Eagles is pick-em, let's say, then that's the same exact thing as a 50% chance, just like a coin flip, heads or tails. I don't care anything about Mahomes versus Hertz or any matchups or anything like that. I'm just strictly looking at the implied probabilities that people who know the game, like yourself, bet into the lines and set the lines and reach sort of the saturated point.

So then from there, when I'm looking at boosts or promotions, I'm calculating, am I getting a play that is better than the implied odds would say? So if I had a boost for Chiefs plus 120, and again, let's say it was Pickham, I know there were small underdogs, then that would be a 10% expected value play. Because instead of winning $100 when you risk 100, you win an extra $20 half the time. So how do people that are casual sports wagers, right? Guys that might just throw down money or gals on just something that's on television. How do you teach them the plus EV and trying to find ways that they can find value in these wagers? Yeah.

So, I mean, for some people, it's as simple as just following, right? Playing along. For the more invested people that look kind of past the the general fan duel draft kings whatever you can describe the discord and get more picks there but for me i think it is more important like you're getting at to have people understand what they're betting be able to find them themselves or just you know get more involved by knowing what they're doing and through through that, I do an EV guide. We have the podcast where I like to explain how I think about correlations,

how I calculated like a tricky promo or boost or one that might represent sort of a broader line of thinking. So that's, those are kind of like different educational ways. Like you mentioned, you were on the action network. I have an EV guide on there. Uh, that it's like, I don't know, nine pages or something that kind of gets into it. Um, let's talk about the podcast and kind of how you are able to help out you know the the casual wage earner for chief to work with Nick which could be a problem at times as I saw a couple years ago tell us about the the podcast well Nick's a pleasure first off okay it's a privilege to work with him every week. Hank Westo.

Yeah. We talk enough about Hank on my regular type of episode. So we'll leave Hank alone for this one. How about that? Okay. But anyway, so the real sort of genesis of it was mostly to be educational. And for me, it was kind twitter didn't wasn't simple enough to just sort of explain out why i did things a certain way why i for a draft kings promo to find an sgp why did i do this type of play and how the correlation works and what the lines were so being educational in that way but also just to be entertaining feel like not a lot of people since gambling's been legalized most shows like you know joshuart's smarter than you are diving into picks as opposed to diving into what is going on in the industry you know draft kings recently stopped giving michigan promos like what's going on with

that recent performance ev rankings like which books are giving out the best promos why are these such good promos explaining d Dinger Tuesday, a popular promo, and why people should be playing it, diving into the EV of it. And then just the entertainment part of, similar to many shows, like a lot of people just want to hear my take on what's going on in NFL banning gambling

and stuff like that. So there are a lot of those kind of wise guys that push back on some of these promos that, you know, that these gambling companies do because they think they're either they're, they're fishy or they're, they're not worth it or they're just trying to kind of get customers in, you know, into use their product but not really kind of provide them a great service.

What's your pushback when you hear those kinds of comments about these promos yeah I mean other than the obvious of you know track bet tracking and results and things of that nature which you know you can kind of easily point to but I would say that the main reason why people hate hate on promos like you said or that the books aren't going to give out free money but it's very clear what books do is they use these promotions these boosts to get people in the door to get handle on their book to steal market share just like they do with commercials i mean i always struggle understanding how someone could think oh a book would never give a plus cv bet but they would spend millions of dollars on billboards all across the country or on commercials in states that it's not even legalized yet. I mean, you got the Mannings commercials.

You got Jay whatever smooth. Like there is advertising being – there's money being spent on getting people to sports books. Why wouldn't they also do it with boosts and promotions? And you see them, you know, the Gronk commercial at the Super Bowl, like you see them putting money where their mouth is and it has had a real impact on market share. I mean, FanDuel's been the number one book for promotions for a while. They've increased their market share. DraftKings struggled and now they've re-upped their promos and they've started to claw back some market share and things like that so yeah i think there's a direct correlation and that's where a lot of this

comes from plus you could just bet against them if you want right like if you get the chiefs plus 120 you could bet minus 110 on the eagles to win somewhere else and so why would sportsbooks say okay here's a 50 max on chiefs to win right at plus 120 we know that you're assuming that they know that the eagles are the better pick even at that number and they are signaling this to the world via a boost that they then cap so you could bet millions of dollars on the e to win, which is the side that the sportsbooks know is going to win, right, in theory, or know is mispriced. But they're going to give you a boost that's capped at $50. That's the wrong side of it in order to trick people. It doesn't make sense. They would never signal it that way.

Two things you mentioned that are, I think, interesting here is the idea that sportsbooks kind of do have errors in the lines, which you can find if you kind of shop enough. And secondly, you kind of talked about different sports. How important is it to be able to shop around to find some of these areas where sportsbooks kind of screw up the value? Well, so they of screw up the value? Well, so they definitely screw up. A lot of these sports books use their own tech, their own trading tools to price things up,

and it ends up very different from the consensus of everywhere else. You know, if you offer, and a lot of these sports books, since gambling's been legalized, now offer everything under the sun. They are just trying to gouge people with different options. And there's going to be mistakes that come from that. So it's extremely important to shop around. Now, how important is it to go glitch hunting? I would say as a new sports bettor, that's, I mean, yes, it's profitable, but that is probably a quick way to get limited on a book. When you're looking at obvious pricing errors, you know, add it. There was one last year.

It was funny. Like DraftKings just added an extra zero on like a first basket play. And it's like, yeah, like they obviously no player is going to be 200 to one to score the first basket of an NBA game that starts. And that's something that, you know, we've seen in the past has gotten people limited. The one story that I always talk about, and I'll try and do it quickly, was when Klay Thompson came back from injury. Draymond Green was announced out in that game. Yeah.

Right. Do you remember? But he wanted to play. He wanted to start the game to be out there just for clay, like when he came back. Yeah. Well, every book took down the lines, obviously. DraftKings sort of messed up.

We're in their SGP. They left up the lines. And a ton of people, for a crazy amount of money, SGP they left up the lines and a ton of people for a crazy amount of money SGP'd his alt unders points rebounds assists getting you know 200 crazy payouts he starts the game intentionally fouls fouls out people take draft kings for hundreds of thousands of dollars. The amount of tickets I saw added up to millions where they got hit. And DraftKings was basically forced to pay it out because he played, recorded a stat, the whole thing. But then they limited everyone that did that. So it can be profitable and mistakes do happen. But you have to understand if you go if you go egregious you're

crazy with it and take them for too much like you're probably done betting there i don't understand why sportsbooks limit uh players um because you know it's hard to to wager and win on sports and as you mentioned some of these in in the straymond green situation i'd imagine a majority of those people probably aren't profitable sports wagers. Why do sports books limit the wagers of people that have a couple of good weeks or have a couple of good months?

Because I think in the end, they're not always going to be on top. It just feels like losing business over this doesn't feel like the right way to do things. Yeah. So I think, well, first of all, I've talked about this a bunch on the podcast, it's certainly gone overboard where you see people hitting some lucky 50 to one bet that took them

70 tries to, to hit and then they get limited. Right. Yeah. So it's certainly gone too far on certain places. Some, some places are better. FanDuel is a lot better than most. Caesar's a lot better than most, but on basically most or all the other books, they're definitely too quick to limit. It does hurt their market share. But the main things that do get you limited, these egregious pricing errors and getting high CLV, so getting bets that move in your favor.

I would say that why they do it, I think it goes back to them wanting to have this crazy array of offerings and knowing that they're not going to be extraordinarily sharp on Israeli Division II basketball, but they offer lines for it. So if you are just kicking their ass on, I couldn't even name any of the Division II teams, but Division II Israeli basketball, and you're getting crazy CLV because you know the injuries happen or you know whatever, the announcements that DraftKings doesn't,

they're just going to be like, well, we don't want to stop offering this because enough people are stupid enough to bet it without an edge, but we can't let you keep doing this, so we're going to limit you. And it doesn't have to be DraftKings. It can be any of these books. So I would say you look at like Circa, Circa Sports in Vegas, obviously, you know. They don't limit people. They're very loud about not limiting people.

And they're saying this. They say this is the way that sports books should be run. But they offer, you know, a tiny fraction of what FanDuel offers, what Caesars offers, what DraftKings offers, what MGM offers. They don't have all these offerings that the main sportsbooks in the U.S. do. And I think that that's what sports betting looks like in a no-limits world, where we're just going to be too afraid to offer these things because we know that we can get crushed and we can't know everything about every sport in every division, et cetera. You just said you don't know any of the names of the

israeli division two basketball league do you know the division one teams like do you have those i do i i can name i can name at least three but that's actually what our whole podcast is about maccabi israeli israeli division one basketball that's all we do Israeli Division I basketball? That's all we do. Yeah, that's all we do. Probably television. Okay.

I think that's where I stop. What is the – what is like the – not the oddest sport, but the one people are like, oh, you're really wagering on that? What's the one? Is it Israeli basketball? No. The weirdest thing I bet on was ping pong in the Olympics. Okay. I think there was all the Olympic sports made me feel really weird.

A lot of like the rowing stuff. I think day to day, there's nothing too outlandish. But yeah, I felt during the Olympics, a lot of the sports we were doing were quite strange. What about you, Nick? Is there a... I've done WNBA, I've done Spelling Bee,

college baseball, college softball, obviously football. I was going to say, Olympic ping pong feels like just a regular Tuesday. I mean, it's fun when you're up at 11 o'clock and you're betting on the street long. You just named college baseball. That's not weird.

No, it's not. Most people are not betting college baseball. No, I agree. But I'll take Chinese basketball. It's weirder. Here we are. No Israeli basketball

for me. I'm open to any suggestions. If you want to throw some my way, I'll put some money on it. I like winning money. Let's get about winning money and the hope of that. North Carolina is legalizing sports wagering. Thank God. Finally.

I feel like we would never do it. We finally have done it. It should be in the early stages of 2024. How would you suggest someone like myself who doesn't have many online accounts because it's not been legal in the state? How do I go about kind of starting the process of finding the right sports books to be part of and kind of using the promo system and sort of to collect some money that maybe I can get for free from the books?

Yeah. So, I mean, to start out, it's really helpful to build up your bankroll through the signup offers. So, I don't know exactly what the numbers will be for the signup offers when North Carolina legalizes it and what will be available to you. But let's say FanDuel right now has a $1,000 risk-free bet. It's risk-free in the sense of you deposit $1,000, you bet $1,000. If your bet loses, you get $1,000 of free bets back. That's important because a free bet is not the same as cash or a site credit. A free bet, the most valuable way to use your free bet is on a long shot. And the reason for that is all that matters is what you win. So if I bet on a plus 900, and let's say it wins 10% of the time, right? I'm turning, so I'm winning,

let's say it's on a $10 free bet. So I'm winning $90 10% of the time. That is a $9 free bet conversion. Okay. But if I use it on a plus 100 bet, which I win half the time, then my $10 turns into $20 50% of the time, then my $10 turns into $10, 50% of the time. Oh, sorry, my $10 bet turns into $10, 50% of the time, so my free bet conversion is $5.

So you can see that over the long haul, you're much better off putting your free bets on longer odds. Now FanDuel, and I won't get into the weeds at all, FanDuel you are able to break up the $1,000 free bets on longer odds now fan duel and i won't get into the weeds at all fan duel you are able to break up the thousand dollar free bets as opposed to and that who knows that'll even be true by the time north carolina legalizes so it's helpful where you can do a bunch of twenty dollar thirty dollar you know plus 500 600 700 higher type bets and make your risk a little bit lower if you lose that initial wager, which also

should be on a longer type bet, but everyone's bankroll is different. And some people ARP them just to take the risk out of it. DraftKings will probably do a deposit bonus. Caesars usually does a risk, you know, a quote unquote risk-free bet. So those are kind of the main books, MGM as well. And then from there, yeah, go ahead. Sorry. well and then from there yeah go ahead sorry uh from there yeah then you can start following me read the ev guys it's the pocket all that all that crap to continue to build your bankroll and and a lot of people use it as either a supplement to their regular betting

or some people do it exclusively uh and they just kind of like the side income. And everyone uses it differently. But, yeah, go ahead. A few more here kind of related to the NFL. What have you made about all the stories of soft season NFL players that have been wagering on sports? I mean, I'm not surprised. I think kind of the grandstanding and the fear-mongering over it

is a little much. What have you made of all these stories this offseason of NFL players waging on sports? Yeah, I think about it kind of like how I thought about weed, or maybe I guess that's kind of how I thought about weed a few years ago in the NFL or

any of the sports leagues, where yeah yeah the whole country's now doing it most most states have it legalized it's not really criminalized anywhere and obviously you can't bet on your own games or anything like that but that's not really what you're referring to yeah but it's sort of just like a iq eq test of like just don't do it you know you're gonna get punished for it and anyone that is doing it especially in a place where you know you're you're at the facility and you can easily get caught like you are risking everything to put in some bets right so I think it's the same thing as we were people in college when they're doing it it'll affect them in the draft because it's like, is this guy really not smart

enough to stay out of trouble? Even if it is something that's a stupid rule. Yeah. I don't really think about it from the, I'm sure they'll change it in a few years. And there's plenty of people working on that. But today, while the rules are what they are, you just gotta be smart enough to avoid it, not mess up with your contract. Not mess up your team, not mess up your career.

Yeah. How do you find plus EV wagers in the NFL futures market? Like how does a casual wager or even someone more hardcore, how'd they go about doing that? Yeah, I think line shopping is the best thing. There are a few line shopping services that are out there, free tools and then pay for more serious things where you can sort of just go to NFL, look at futures, whether it's win totals, division winners, championship, and just see who's got the best lines. just see who's got the best lines. But I think in a lot of the futures markets, more people really use it because a lot of people don't like in the EV world. And this is not something I really mind, but you start getting into how long your money

is getting held and what the interest rate, the risk-free rate is, especially with rates high, where your expected expected return is gonna have to be pretty high to have your money tied up for six months. I generally don't really think of it perfectly like that, but I would say that most people will use the line shopping tools more for, I'm looking for a long shot free bet. I wanna find the best odds for the Super Bowl

and I'm gonna end up with 10 Super Bowl winners so I can get high freeback conversions because they're long odds and cover a bunch of different teams type things. As we head into the season, I'll be here before. Do you have a favorite NFL future that you've wagered on? Is there one you've wagered on multiple

times? Is there one that kind of comes to mind as your favorite or two of NFL future wagers? Yeah, I'm going to take a cop-out here and switch it to college football. Great. We wager on college football too, buddy. I personally get more into the college football stuff. Just for, like, enjoyment.

Yeah. So I took Alabama over 10 wins at minus 110. I like them to make the playoff at plus 155. And then I took Penn State to make the playoff at plus 480, I believe it was. Sorry, go ahead. Go ahead. Continue. Sorry. Well, the main thought around Alabama was their seven-plus-point favorites in every game.

I thought their win total should be closer to 10.5. They have a 90% blue-chip ratio, number two in the country, 77%. This is an extraordinarily – they've been number one or number two every single year in the recruiting rankings. This is an extraordinarily talented team and saving only once since he's been there outside of the you know initial 07 or whatever louisiana in row year has hit 10 wins every year but once so i don't see this is the team that kind of breaks that it's just too talented a group he's still there he made some changes at coordinators like i think at minus 110 for 10 wins,

it's hard to see them going at nine. You can easily see them at 11, especially being again, touchdown favorites in every game. They get their hardest games at home, all that crap. This is a fun conversation because this is, I think where the difference in kind of the way I look at wagering and the

way you look at wagering, right. And kind of the, you're using your brain, right. Plus seven, I're using your brain, right? Plus seven, I mean, minus seven, they're favoring all the games. They should have a higher win total. Totally understand that.

I'm like, ah, quarterback, offensive line not as good, tough conference. Like, you know, last season didn't go as well. And I'm like, ah, I lean under in that. But your way tends to actually make more money than my way. I still have to break that habit of mine when I think about futures of program. I do like the Penn State one, though. Penn State with the quarterback this year who's really good on paper, they can make a playoff with their schedule as well.

Yeah, they bring a lot back. I think that at plus 450 and you look at their schedule, I could easily see them. If they split Michigan and Ohio State and then can run the rest of the table, their schedule like i could easily see them if they split michigan ohio state and then can run the rest of the table i think they'll have a much better than you know uh one in six or one and five and a half chance of making the playoff even if they don't make that championship game if they're left out of the michigan between the three of those teams as the second big 10 team so i felt that way with alabama, where, you know,

you have multiple avenues. And Penn State was like plus 500 or 600 to win the conference. And I'm like, well, if they're plus 600 to win the conference, you might as well have them make the playoff at plus four something. And, you know, have that chance. They don't make the title game, but they're a one-loss team with a strong resume. Yeah, I like that.

Nick, do we miss anything here, buddy? Do we get to anything? I also wouldn't discredit yourself. I mean, the show is called Jeff Schwartz is Smarter Than You, so you're right. Yeah, I mean, the thing about Bama is just a quarterback thing. That was my – I was writing an article before we started today about some future wagers I like.

I put Penn State over their win total for the reasons you mentioned. They lose some guys on defense but kind of replace them. Front seven good. Best left tackle in football. New quarterback who's better than Clifford and really kind of the best quarterback Franklin's ever had. As you mentioned, they could split that schedule. And Michigan State as well. They should beat Michigan State.

You can't stop a nosebleed if you can pass the ball a little bit. I think that future line is at like 16 or something. I think they're pretty comfortably favored there. Yeah, yeah. Nick, did we miss anything? Do we have to? We only missed talking about taking the Jets' season total win under. I think that's by far my favorite.

That's my favorite play. It's fun to watch Gabe squirm. It's fun that Gabe finally thinks the Jets are good. Other than that, I think he did everything. Wait, does Gabe act differently off the show? Because on this show, he's still a Charger fan and has nothing to do with the Jets. Oh, I didn't know he converted.

I thought that was just all talk. No, I'm under the impression he's still a Jets fan at heart. And the second they start winning, he'll come back to them. But we'll see. I thought that was just all talk. No, I'm under the impression he's still a Jets fan at heart, and the second they start winning, he'll come back to them. But we'll see. Oh, man, it must be torture. Jets, Mets, Knicks, just torture for poor Gabe. Promo guy, do you watch sports ever as a fan,

or do you always watch through the lens of the wagers you have? I absolutely watch this fan. I try and compartmentalize it. One's more like work and a math type thing, and then the other is just being a regular person outside of work and enjoying sports. It does get harder when you have bets on like 60% of games, but I think that's still part of the fun of it. Gambling is supposed to be fun.

Yeah, I mean, I like to make money too, right? I mean, it's fun, but you also should make some money doing it as well. For sure. But, you know, over time, I kind of know that we will. So I try not to overly sweat the days and the weeks as opposed to the months and the years. So before we get out of here, where can we find your podcast that you do with Nick and all the information you have as far as EV betting, the wagers you put out on Discord?

How can people kind of get in contact with you? Yeah, I would just follow the promo guy 123 on Twitter. I have the Apple and Spotify link in my bio. I have my Discord link, which you can sign up through WAP, in my bio. So you can get it all there. Well, appreciate you joining us. Make sure to check out his podcast with Nick as well. Thanks for coming on, man.

Appreciate it. Good luck this year. Jeff, thanks for having me. And good luck to you as well. How are you feeling about Oregon this year? so I feel good, I'll put it like that I've been kind of biding my time

because of the way we ended last season just like slowly doing it, but Oregon has the most talent at the Pac-12 conference their defense can be average this year they'll win the conference, it's that simple so, we'll see I got high hopes man, you mentioned blue chip ratio, they'll win the conference. It's that simple. We'll see.

I've got high hopes, man. You mentioned blue chip ratio. They're at like 71%, I think. Yeah, I think they're around there as well. So good luck to you. Thank you. I appreciate it. And hope to talk soon.

Yeah, sounds good. Thank you. All right, we'll get to moving the line. We're still doing moving the line, even though with no game. We're going to do it with Nick. So for sure we're going to make fun of Hank at some point. Stay tuned for that. Alright, Nick. What do we got, buddy? Alright. This is

fun filling in for Gabe here. Yeah, let's move the line a little bit. Let's start with Texas football. over-under, nine-and-a-half wins this season. So, as I mentioned with the promo guy, I am writing an article right now for Fox Sports kind of listing one future wager in every conference that I like.

We're just kind of just doing that. And for the Big 12, I did Texas under nine-and-a-half wins. And here's why, okay? So there's four games on their schedule. You look at it like, okay, these are kind of 50-50, right? At Alabama, at Baylor, Oklahoma, it's going to be much better this year. And obviously off of 49 to nothing loss in the Cotton Bowl last year. And TCU is tough.

It will be tough. They're not going to be as good this year, but it will be a tough tough game they also have to go to iowa state they have to go to houston so let's say they split the four tough games at bama at baylor oklahoma and and at tcu that puts them at 10 and two okay they're 10 and two right now are you telling me they're not going to lose one stinker between the other games they play of course you're gonna lose a stinker so i have nine and three i have nine and three good season but not nine not over nine and a half they're not winning 10 games this year sorry sorry hank it's not happening nine wins is commendable i can't believe we're calling alabama a toss-up game i think going no i'm just saying i don't

think i'm just saying like that's a loss But just generally speaking, they've got to go 2-2 in those four games to even be considered able to hit this wager. Yeah. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm less analytical about it. I just know that as seeing producer Hank root for the Longhorns the last few years, things don't tend to go his way i i feel like we've got a solid read on the under texas if if you had to guess how many

times they've won more than nine games since 2009 what would your guess be how many seasons four seasons one time one time They won 10 games one year. And I'm not even sure that it was like – I don't even know if it was a bowl game. It's just they won 10 games because, as you know, this does not count bowl games, playoff games, does not count conference championship games, just regular season wins. And they won 10 games in 2018. And that includes a Sugar Bowl win.

So that's actually – they have not done the regular season since 2009 when they won – they lost the BC Championship game to – was it Bama that year? Texas lost that year. So zero times. I change it. Zero times. So I'm going to go zero times continued for 2023.

All right. Like it. We'll move over to the NFL. and we'll look at the Niners. How many games do we think Sam Darnold starts for the Niners next season? Over, under three and a half. Oh, man. I guess Brock Purdy's thrown, right? They said he'll be ready for the start of the year.

Trey Lance, I mean, that's easy. I wouldn't say under. I mean, they need trey lance to play right they need him to play and they're gonna start brock purdy at some point too like i'm same john's third on the depth chart if both those guys are at all healthy during training camp he will never play so i'm gonna go with uh has there been any read on who the day one starter is gonna be it's gonna be trey Lance or Brock Purdy, I'd imagine. Yeah.

Is Brock back healthy? He should be by training camp or close there. Yeah, I'm on the Brock Purdy train. I thought what he showed was not fluky at all. I think as much as he can be in, he will be in. I don't see him losing any playing time to Darnold as long as

he stays healthy. I am not on the Brock pretty train I think he just was that was like the best we're gonna get from him was last year but what nothing really changed around him if he was able to just be a system quarterback what changed there what changed is that he's not going to go like 13 touchdowns and three interceptions over over eight games that's not it's just that's not going to go like 13 touchdowns and three interceptions over eight games. That's not going to happen for the player. And we saw, you know, when he got hurt, one of the reasons he got hurt in that game was he didn't step up in the pocket. Like there's certain things that maybe he'll learn as he gets older.

But there's certain things, again, when you relied on him in some of these big games, like is that going to be what he is? Also, too, it's worth pointing out um i believe it's like day 28 of 27 of 32 starting quarterbacks the nfl um and all almost almost all franchise guys were drafted the first or second round but there's a reason that those guys succeed right i mean look at russell wilson obviously he's outside that dak prescott kurt cousins who else is starting starting in the NFL that wasn't drafted in the first or second round? That might be it. Brock Purdy, I guess.

There's a reason why, man. Over time, there's less success with players that weren't drafted as high as the first, second round. Yeah. Yeah, I guess we'll find out. But talking of first-round quarterbacks drafted, 90% chance Jordan Love ends up regretting wishing the Bears a happy Father's Day on Twitter. Over under 90%. I saw this, like, sort of pop up, but I didn't really follow through on it.

So he did a cameo or, like, he did a thing with someone and was like, how'd it end up going down? I thought it was a Twitter live post of him saying like, happy Father's Day to all the Bears fans out there. Go, Pat, go. So here's what I found on the tweet. It says, this guy said, I handed him my phone, asked him to make a fun video to originally wish the French Bears fans a happy Father's Day.

He forgot to mention French. So, I mean, look, I'm still too obsessed with the Mariah Mills situation to focus on Jordan Love's tweets right now. So I got to catch up on Jordan Love's tweets. I don't think he will grow up. so I'm I gotta catch up on Jordan Lowe's tweet I think I don't think he'll Mariah Mills Mariah Mills demanding a NBA trade has to be one of the best storylines of the offseason but like that have we I assume it happened like yesterday so I assume you guys haven't talked about it yet she demanded that the Pelicans she tweeted at the Pelicans, trade him or are the sex tapes dropping?

She's actually influencing the NBA offseason more than Bradley Beal. Okay, so do you think that she's this scorned of a lover or this is like an act? This could be an act to get more subscribers to her product, or is she really this scorned? act to get more subscribers to her to her product or does she really this scorned in theory you think so but she has a pretty solid point that she had all of this ammo and never did anything so i really do think she's this scorned i think she thought that they were what they had was different um and now she'd be calling out other people who send her DMs. Dude. Whew, babe. Just, just.

Oh, man. It's an awesome story. But every three days I go to her Twitter account and there's just like, I'm looking at it now. I mean, she sent. There's 17 tweets you haven't seen yet. She just keeps going 20, not even. And then she did the photo shoot, like wearing the Duke paint. Yeah.

She said it was for Tupac. It's. Man. I'll just move it before we get into it, please. Oh, man. I'll keep this moving before we get into it. Okay, please. This is actually one I'm pretty curious to get your read on.

Have you seen, before I ask the question, have you seen the Ocean Gate submarine story? Okay, so. Go ahead. Go ahead. Yeah, the answer is, you couldn't pay me $250 to go in that freaking thing. So I spent a lot of time, not a lot of time, but enough time in the ocean as a youth in Los Angeles, right? Santa Monica. Tower 26 kind of right down Ocean Park.

And the ocean is, is scary. It is like you kind of riptide and you can't get out of it. And it's just pulling you deeper out away from the shore. And the lifeguards like, sorry, can't help you. Like just swim sideways and try to get out of it. And then if you wash out the back end, we'll pick you up on our jet ski.

Like I got, I'm terrified of the ocean, man. Like I'll go in the ocean. Don't get me wrong. We were on a boat in St. Thomas. I'll jump in the water with a life jacket on or whatever. All good. Like calm water. Good. I'm on it. But the idea of going in this janky underwater submarine down to see the Titanic, we can do this video of the Titanic. Like you can just go online

and look at video of the Titanic sitting on the bottom of the ocean floor. Not for me. And look, obviously we're joking about this. Their possibly lost here it's terrible that this has come to that but no chance nick zero chance you can even pay me money to go in that thing the the idea of going down there did you see what the submarine itself actually yes like yes i've seen it all you don't even get to see it on a tv screen within the submarine you could just do that in your living room there's absolutely no need to go down there and they're paying a quarter million dollars to do so yes and they can't and it's bolted from the outside so you can't even like get back to the top and then pop a latch open to

like get oxygen so like if you even read if resurface somehow, they're just sitting in the ocean right now. There's no beacon on this thing. There's no radio transmission on this thing. It could just be bobbing in the middle of the ocean right now and no one could see it. And there's no way to pop open a latch to get oxygen, anything. It's insane, dude. Yeah, it's crazy. I would say I I'm with you. Lives are at stake. It is a serious matter. Luckily, there's a billionaire down there. So if anyone has the funds to pay for an ocean watch,

hopefully they're really scouring the ocean, seeing if this thing's bobbing around out there. It doesn't feel good, man. It sucks. It's a terrible story. But yeah, I'm not going down there. The ocean, there are things we've never discovered that live in the ocean. I'm not going to say we've discovered most animals on land.

I mean, there's probably some we haven't deep in some rainforest somewhere, right? Like a little frog or lizard or something like that. But you know how many species of fish, Nick, we've never been able to find because they live below our capabilities as humans to go see them. Like, come on, the ocean to me, no, no chance. I'm not dying on the ocean. Listen, I agree. I agree with your take that I'm not getting in a metal box and going down there. I don't necessarily, I don't think I'm too scared of the ocean. I feel like I've swam enough. I don't know. I know riptides are serious, but I feel like I'm a pretty strong swimmer. You can't just swim back to shore.

I'm not going out. In a riptide? I don't know. I've never seen it. So from my point of view, I've been in the ocean hundreds of times. I feel like if I'd started pulling me out, I'd just swim right back in. No, you have to swim sideways to get out of it. You can't swim.

I'm already lost. Okay. You need to go. You're in Los Angeles. Go to the beach. Look when that red flag is up and just jump in there. Go ahead. Have fun.

Do it right in front of the lifeguard tower and let me know how it goes, buddy. All right. I'll bring a life jacket. Worst case scenario, they just pick me up in the jet ski in a couple hours later um all right we'll finish this off with um over under one and a half years until hank ends up on air talent alongside you oh man it's close we're getting there i would say under um i mean it's gonna it's gonna. We're getting there. I would say under. I mean, it's going to happen soon. I mean, you made it on air.

How many years did it take you to get on air? I think it took me two and a half. I think Hank's around a year in working with you now. So one and a half seems like a good number. I think it's got to be over. Are we counting like when Hank started getting paid to work at Blue Dog or intern status? Hank gets paid to work here? I thought he was just doing this for fun.

I think he has – I don't know, man. I don't know. I mean, I think he does. He puts the end of the rundown. He puts some good questions in this rundown for today. I'm impressed. Or you did. I don't know.

Someone did it. This is all Hank. I can't take credit for it. I read some of them. It was good. I would say –. Someone did it. This is all Hank. I can't take credit for it. I read some of them. It was good. I would say, I mean, he is featured on this show enough. Like, I know his dad listens and his mom listens. Like, we got at least two listens every week.

So it's impressive, man, the dedication. I hope that he can be on air one day. All right. One and a half years. We're taking the under. One and a half years. We're taking the under, everyone. All right.

Thanks for joining us today. A little different show, but really enjoyed the promo guy coming on, Nick making an appearance again after so many years. Nick's on our text thread. I feel sorry because I feel like we just texted about stuff that Nick just Oh, I love it. I love it. Oh, okay.

Because you don't really answer it. Well, I only answer when I know I'm going to get at least two to three laughs. Okay. Okay, good. Well, Nick's on the... There's like seven people in the text thread. I don't even know if people that work at your company

are still there on the text thread. I have no idea. I don't see... Yeah, I think you just throw people on. Once you're in there, you can't get out. You can't get out. Well, if you guys like this show, please let me know on Twitter at Jeff Schwartz. You can leave a review.

As always, we love reviews and stars. That'd be great. We're back in a couple weeks. It'll be me and Gabe back together talking NFL, Tom College football. We're close, guys. It's June 20th right now as I lose my voice there. I can't breathe. Just thinking about that submarine.

I can't even breathe right now. And then we're going to start our previews, man. It's coming up soon. We're going to start our previews of our conferences, of divisions in the NFL, our favorite futures. Our favorite show will be at the end of August. We go through kind of all our favorite futures. Nick, how about this?

I'm going to soft launch this right now before we leave. I'm going to take every starting running back under the rushing total for the entire season. All 32. That is a Jeff Schwartz special. There are injuries. They're always set way too high.

It's one of the many things I learned working on this show. Always take the running back unders. Always take them under. All right, guys. Enjoyed it. Take care. Talk to you guys next week