Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - The Ravens Choke Again, Mike White Returns, and the NFC East Cannot Be Stopped

Episode Date: November 29, 2022

Geoff is back for a VERY special Tuesday episode... because Matt is here, filling in for Gabe while he makes his monthly visit to England. Geoff and Matt talk through all of the headlines from the weekend's action, including the fallout from CFB Rivalry week, the Ravens choking late to T-Law and the Jaguars, Mike White's reemergence and what it means for the Jets. Plus a look ahead at the playoff standings, including the NFC East's unprecedented dominance.This week on Moving the Line, the boys figure out why they were wrong about Bucs, check in on how USA soccer is doing at the World Cup, and Geoff predicts good things for Matt Rhule at Nebraska.As always, please be sure to leave a rating and a comment. to let us know what you think of the show, or tweet @geoffschwartz to tell him directly.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it's tuesday november 29th i'm jeff schwartz alongside matt ford and this is jeff schwartz a smart new power by the varsity podcast network hope everyone had a great thanksgiving break back to life but we had a ton of football this weekend to talk about college football playoff check-in after the regular season has officially ended we were heading into conference championship weekend plenty of nfl to talk about Teams going up and down through week 12. Only got a couple weeks left now. Kind of weird to think about. Matt Ford, how are you, buddy?

You're filling in today because Gabe is at some farm in London. Who knows where he is? I'm glad to have you, buddy. Gabe's taking his weekly trip to London. I joined this call late because I couldn't figure out how to record anything. Hank, in the intro of the show listed Gabe instead of me I at some point Jeff you're just gonna look up and be like why am I doing this show with these assholes like I don't know how it's we're at week 12 is the NFL season and you're still here I'm not sure how but thank you well you're not here for our

picks that we gave out on Tuesday we had a a bad week, but we're still above 500. We're blaming Tuesday for that, buddy. That was the problem. It was too early in the week. Still above 500. Yeah, man. College football is crazy. It's done already.

Conference Championship weekend. CFP will be announced really on Sunday night. Really, I mean, by Saturday night, we should know where we're at. Yeah. Why don't we start there? Really, on Sunday night. Really, I mean, by Saturday night, we should know where we're at. Yeah. Why don't we start there? You'll just have to let me know how this show works since I'm subbing it for Gabe here. God bless him.

He's back on the English countryside. He hasn't been in a few weeks. Who is he rooting for, by the way, in England, USA, while watching in England? It's a great question. I think that's like a real problem in his house. I saw some photos of his kids wearing England clothes, and we've got a lot of questions. What can I say? But talking about the football, we know something about.

So obviously a ton happened. Why don't we start with Michigan, who had a huge win, maybe the biggest certainly that I can remember in Columbus this weekend. What does it mean for them? How do you see this shaking out with the playoff? Yeah, so a lot of movement this past weekend as we get toward the finish line here. It's pretty easy, right? So Georgia's in.

Even if they lose to LSU, which is unlikely, who just lost to A&M, they're going to be in with one loss, having beaten all the teams they've beaten this season, including, which is unlikely, who just lost to A&M, they're going to be in with one loss, having beaten all the teams they've beaten this season, including, as we know, Tennessee, who they beat already. They've been, and they crushed Tennessee, by the way. They beat Oregon, who is not, who's 9-3, but they

smoked Oregon as well. They've earned the right to be here. They're going to be in the playoff, win or loss. And they're not losing this game anyway. So it's not really, in my opinion, much to consider. They're going to be in the playoff. They're number one.

They'll have the one seed. I guess if they lose, they won't, but that's not going to happen. Now we have number two seed, right? And it really comes down to Michigan. So Michigan went to Ohio State and won for the first time since 2000. And they won the same way they won last year, which is they wanted a line of scrimmage, especially second half of that game as Edwards had two long runs to seal the game. They did enough in the passing game.

And, you know, C.J. Stroud, again, like some mistakes, not perfect at all times. But Michigan just kind of played their game, stuck to their game. And now they get Purdue in the Big Ten Championship game. They're 16-point favorites. That game, I would imagine, is a Michigan win. I would expect, actually, a little bit of a come down. Last year, Michigan played Iowa, and they won 42-3 in that championship game, but Iowa couldn't move the ball.

Purdue can at least kind of move the ball a little bit and possibly give Michigan a little bit of a scare. But I think in the end, and this is really no contest for Michigan. They have not played Purdue this season, by the way. Purdue, I believe, is 8-4 this season. They're 8-4 this season. Purdue beat Illinois as a ranked team, beat Minnesota when they were ranked during the season,

and then obviously has Michigan now. So Michigan's in. Michigan's in with a win. Very, very simple for them. TCU. TCU is 12-0. They will move up to three in the college football playoff rankings. They have Kansas State this weekend.

They are only a two-and-a-half point favorite. This game is in Dallas at AT&T Stadium. The way TCU's season's been going, Matt, I would expect TCU to win. Everything's kind of gone right for them. I've mentioned this before, maybe not on this show, but they have kind of a perfect blend of Gary Patterson for so many years was defensive-minded. They bring in Sonny Dykes, who's offensive-minded.

They have the perfect blend of sort of this defense and the defensive-minded team they've had under Gary Patterson. That defense did slip off. That's why he was fired. And then Sonny Dykes, obviously, is a great offensive mind, and they're able to just kind of combine both of those. They're 11th in the country in points per drive on offense, 51st on defense. And so they just, again, they can move the ball down the field.

They're good on special teams. And Kansas State's tough, though. But they run the ball a ton. I think TCU will win this one. If TCU wins, they're in. It's quite simple, right? Georgia wins, they're in no matter what if they lose. Michigan's in with the win.

TCU's in with the win. USC's next up. USC has Utah this weekend. USC just beat Notre Dame. USC wins. They're in. They're 12-1 Pac-12 champ. They're USC. They have the Heisman winner, quarterback, and Caleb Williams. They're in the playoff at number

four if they do it. Now, they play Utah this weekend. Excuse me, Friday night. Utah is very capable of beating them. They already beat them once this season. The game was a one-point win for Utah in Salt Lake City. And it was a game I wrote about today. 59 first downs in that game, Matt. And 1,100-ish yards.

A little bit more than 1,100 yards. It's going to be the same sort of game. The thing about USC, man, is I keep thinking it's going to end at some point because they're plus 24 in turnover margin, plus 20, no, plus 22 in turnover margin. They're plus 11 in turnover margin against the four ranked teams they played. It doesn't make any sense. They're in the hundreds, they're a hundred, I'm pulling the number up right here. They're 107th in the country, I think, in defensive. 107th in the country in points per drive on defense. And 120th in the country in yards per drive on defense.

Like, yeah, they're going to be in the playoff. Like, they're that close because Caleb Williams is so incredibly good. Now, the rub becomes what happens if TCU or USC lose? What happens now? If both lose, Ohio State and Alabama, welcome to the playoff. If one loses, it's one loss Ohio State against one loss Alabama to figure out who ends up being the team that goes to the playoff. So, look, I don't know what the best way to determine that is.

Obviously, Alabama has two losses this year. They've lost to Tennessee on the road by three, LSU by one on the road. Remember, all the way back to week two, I think you made the case that Texas could have, should have beat them, but did not when Quinn Uris got hurt. They had beaten Ole Miss. They had beaten Mississippi State. They had beaten Arkansas. They had beaten other ranked opponents.

Ohio State, I think, has not looked as good this season as expected, even though obviously they are now 11-1. They kind of have looked a lot sluggish at times. They beat a ranked Penn State team. That's it so far for ranked opponent. I think oh man, I don't know. If it's one or the other, I think

they'll take Alabama, will the committee, but we'll find out obviously kind of where they stand in the rankings when it comes out Tuesday night. So if you're listening to this on Tuesday, when it comes out tonight. Yeah, well the ultimate chaos scenario When it comes out Tuesday night. So if you're listening to this on Tuesday. When it comes out tonight. Yeah well. The ultimate chaos scenario.

Is if LSU beats or like really pushes Georgia. And then one of these other teams loses. Because then LSU would have potentially an argument to be in there. They're not getting it as a three loss team. So they would have to win. To beat Georgia. LSU would not. Even if LSU ends up winning that game, they're not in the playoff with three losses. If they had beaten A&M on Saturday, they would be in with two losses.

They're not getting in with three losses. Got it. So the chaos can come. There's a lot of ways it can go, I guess. But one of these teams is going to lose. One of these teams is going to make it miserable and then there's going to be the like the annual sec question of how many teams they get who do you think is the most likely to fall on their faces is is purdue purdue k-state and utah all winning and then what happens to the top you know which

is possible right like i don't know if it's likely, but. I think Michigan's going to win. I think it's certainly possible Kansas State and or Utah can win their games. I think it'd be very tough to see Purdue winning this game. Michigan, just the way they win the line of scrimmage, they're obviously very well coached. It feels unlikely for Purdue. And Purdue's been a giant slater over the years they have they have slayed some monsters over the years i just think purdue purdue is not good enough to win this

excuse me to win this game so how do you think if it shakes out the way that you have it this go walk me through the seedings and why there's any possibility like the first round is generally never interesting in this like there's usually the first you know the number one team just kills the number four seed and then the second game you know once in a while it's pretty good um but how how is this going to shake out and just yeah just walk me through you like georgia will smoke usc when they play each other now georgia smokes everybody so like think think you think, you know, think when Georgia played Tennessee, right?

Like that's what's going to happen in this game. And then Michigan TCU would be fun. That'd be a fun game. I think that would actually be a very close semifinal game. I don't think USC, and even a diehard USC fan would think that that game will be close against Georgia. Yeah.

I mean, it's a different team at the top this year, but I think it's sort of going to be the same feel of SEC team murders everybody. But I don't know. It's fun being out here in LA and everybody's pumped up about the Trojans. We'll see if they're able to take care of business. Okay. Why don't we move on to the NFL where I actually have some semblance idea of what's happening. Okay.

Why don't we start with Baltimore in this crazy game against the Jags? we move on to the nfl where i actually have some semblance idea of what's happening um okay why don't we start with baltimore in this crazy game against the jags uh baltimore blew another late lead i think this one was nine um this afc playoff picture is kind of a mess but i think i just want to start with lamar and this interesting bet he's made on himself and baltimore in general um he had the little kerfuffle on Twitter. I think we can call it kerfuffle. I actually hadn't missed that until I saw people upset at first take for classifying it weirdly. But feel for Lamar.

Did they call it a kerfuffle? No, they don't call it kerfuffle, unfortunately. So, yeah, I mean, he's since deleted the tweet, but he said something pretty nasty to somebody after that. He he got some criticism for the loss. We were sharing on our group text here. The Ravens have blown for the most improbable games of the season. I kind of can't tell. And that's all their four losses. I can't tell if that's a credit to them or a detriment.

But I guess, like, what do you make of Baltimore and how they're kind of unraveling? Or was this more about, like, the Jags pulling a game out of their asses? Well, you know, the Jacksonville had to make the plays at the end. But look, Baltimore for so many years was a team built upon kind of getting a lead and wearing you down, right? And Benjamin Solak, as you mentioned, this year the Ravens have lost four games. They lost the Dolphins. They had a 97.8% win percentage. Remember, they had 35.

Well, it says 35-21 here, but I think it was even 35-17 or 35-14 at one point in that game. Against the Bills, they had a 72% win percentage. They lost the Bills game. Which is the Giants game. at one point, they had 84% win percentage and lost that game. Against Jacksonville, they were 90%. That's unreal.

A couple of things are and I tweeted this out yesterday. I call them an average team because you don't know drive to drive if you're getting the good Ravens or the bad Ravens. They're fifth.

DVOA has not been updated, but they enter the weekend fifth in DVOA on offense. And normally I can make a case that, you know, when we watch football, Matt, we can kind of generally correlate the DVOA to what we see with our eyeballs. It's pretty close, right? I can't with the Ravens. I don't know, man.

Like their efficiency is good, but they don't score enough points. They have met plenty of moments. They don't execute an offense. It feels like all the years of not having enough wide receiving weapons is catching up to the Ravens. Lamar is the second worst quarterback in the NFL and deep passes. They can't run the ball as well anymore, so they can't keep these leads.

Defensively, for so many years, man, they were just so stout. They were physical and forced you to turnovers and rush the passer. None of that's true right now. You can't do any of that. And so they're allowing all these comebacks because, again, they used to just be able to run the ball. If you're up with six minutes left and you get three first downs, I mean, the game's basically over

if those first downs happen, you know, I guess not consecutively in a row, right? I mean, that's it. Like, they can't get first downs, offense line injuries, scheme, whatever it is. And they're 7-4, though. I mean, they're not terrible, but they're also, I don't think, a threat. Like, do you feel if you're the Chiefs or the dolphins or the bills or even the bangles that like,

you're, you're worried about Baltimore right now because they can't finish games. Yeah. It's almost like you could, you could say that Baltimore was beating. They could have, they could be 11 and oh, like honestly,

they, they legitimately, you could say should be 11 and oh, but yeah, i don't have a ton of faith in in them throughout the game i think if you're the if you're the ravens i think the worst case scenario this year was kind of exactly what happened which is like the team lamar has played well enough for them to be in every single game but he is also like just not closed anything out

this move he did online like it whatever it'll probably blow over in a day or two who cares but it's not a great look like and i think harbaugh said something interesting a few weeks ago where he basically said like um lamar is gonna play like how he's gonna play like their their whole team kind of caters to his style of quarterback play right like i think that's the reason they have 19 tight ends instead of one good receiver and they're bringing deshaun jackson off the street like they have sort of like gone all in on lamar but they can't even convince themselves that it's not a bluff and i feel like it's just a really interesting way that this is playing out because you can still sort of make the case for either side.

Like you have to extend Lamar and give him all this money or he's kind of holding them back and he's not maybe worth it. Or maybe you just have to franchise tag him and do this again next year. It's just so fascinating. So here's the interesting part about this. the um the interesting part about about this like is is lamar not capable of running a different offense or is greg roman the oc not capable of design that offense for him right now there's talk always been about greg roman's you know limited kind of past game menu right and to me lamar feels talented enough to be in a different offense. It's hard to render judgment on Lamar

and say, no, he can never play in a Pat Mahomes offense or a Joe Burrow offense. We don't know. He's never done it. Now, we could be wrong. They could go hire a new OC and go in a different direction and two years, three years from now we're like, yep, everyone was right. Lamar can't do this. But Matt,

it's like year what? Five for him now? Six? Like the Jim and quarterback? Like I kind of want to see him in an offense that has a bigger pass game menu before deciding that. Yeah. It's so – I would feel very frustrated if I were any part of this Ravens quagmire, but I do think he's obviously played well enough for them to, to,

you know, at least be ahead in the fourth quarter and every single game this year, it feels like. So that's going to be an interesting one to track. I guess we should maybe just talk about the AFC playoff picture in general. We, before we get to the NFC. So like very interesting weekend,

the Patriots lost they're still in the mix the bangles they're you know they're they want a very impressive game much to our chagrin uh without mixing or chase against tennessee so it seems like they're they could obviously win the afc north and kill some of our futures bets um and they're i guess in play for the one seat also the chargers finally got a win despite or maybe because of brandon staley maybe we can talk about that a little bit but i guess as we get back getting it done again seriously um yeah i guess like of the of the four teams that are contenders in in the for those last two wild card spots. Let's say Cincy, the Patriots, the Chargers, and who am I missing? So right now, basically, it's the Bengals, Jets, Patriots, Chargers.

Yeah, and the Jets. So why don't we talk through those four, and let's pick two. Who do we think is making it? The Bengals are in. I know we have an anti-Bengals, not an anti-Bengals playoff talk, but we have a Bengals no playoffs wager. They impressed me a lot on Sunday, man. Tennessee's a tough team.

And they went in there, they controlled the line of scrimmage, which was important for them. They host Kansas City this weekend, get Jamar Chase back. They're in at a wild card or as a division winner. It's a must win for the Bengals. Again, they have to keep pace, right? So they're in, I think. It's a must win for the Bengals.

So again, they have to keep pace, right? So they're in, I think. So we basically have Kansas City, Miami, Tennessee, Baltimore, Buffalo, and the Bengals. Those six are in, in my opinion. So the question is, who's the seventh one, right? It's Jets, Patriots, Chargers. So the Jets, obviously, Ben Jack Wilson, Mike White played well, but they played the Bears who stink. So the Jets now have the Vikings, the Bills.

So they dropped two of those. You're looking at probably out of the playoff picture, right? Lions, Jags, Seahawks, Dolphins. They have four games against good teams, right? They split those two. They got to nine wins. Split those four. They got to nine wins.

I mean, they put themselves in position for that to happen. The Chargers, man, they're just not trustworthy, right? Like, how do you trust them? How do you trust them? You just don't. And lastly, the Patriots who, again, quarterback, not very good. And then just a lot of weird, un-Belichick-like things happen to them this season. So I would probably, I think the Jets at the moment feel like the best pick, which is weird. Unbelievable.

Right? Unbelievable. Well, I'm curious. Do you think this Mike White thing is legit? I mean, last year he came out and he did sort of the same thing. He exploded for a week or two and then came back to Earth super fast. I'm wondering, as a guy who's watched plenty of Taylor Heineke, if this is a like, thank God that guy's gone. Let's just play a little bit harder kind of thing, which I've never really tracked this much in the NFL.

I feel like it's really a thing now. Do you think that's what happened or do you think mike white actually might be good i mean it's a thing that happened because of your team like your team is in the same spot right now because he's not good he's just not terrible right and the team he's not killing them yeah and the team clearly believes in mike white i think they would have believed in matt ford it's just anyone that wasn't Zach Wilson, right? Like, guys, Zach Wilson was benched, and then he also didn't dress. That fucking killed me, Jeff.

He didn't even get, like, and it was pouring rain. They showed his poor little sad 13-year-old face, just, like, under, like, a raincoat looking all sad. And the team played like it had a weight lifted right like like you know now again the bears are not very good the bears are starting a quarterback and trevor simeon who by the way how about this so an hour before the game the bears game we hear oh trevor simeon he's out he's not going to play because he had a punctured something or other or he tore the disc in the hand. He played an hour later.

That screwed the gambling markets a lot there. So, to me, I would – let me see Mike White do a little bit more, but the team, just like Washington. No, good. Guys, I talked about this last week, I think. Washington's defense, like their numbers are far better than they were with Carson Wentz at quarterback. Like, the whole team picks up their spirit when they trust the quarterback.

So, that's why I think the Jets are – Mike White's not great. He's not going to win you many games. Like, you're not going to have many two-minute drives with him, and he's not going to go for 400 yards and will you to victories. But, he's good enough to make the team believe, believe that he can – believe they can win each week, which is important. Yeah. So I think that that's – I mean, that's a super important topic in general.

But I think that – I don't know what the deal is with the jets but i was watching last night the uh the jordan love aaron rogers handoff situation there and i was thinking the jets might be the next bucks in how they were like constructed really well all of a sudden they're just like sitting right on the cusp. And if they can just figure out quarterback, maybe it's Jordan Love. Maybe it's Aaron Rodgers. Maybe it's somebody in the draft.

Like who knows? They seem really close. I don't think that this Mike White thing is legit. If Mike White was good, he would have won this job last year. I think that that just would have happened. But I do think, shout out to the Jets. There are a couple other teams that sort of sit on that cusp that seem like they're pretty close until,

and they just need a quarterback to jump in there. But, but the question becomes like, who does that quarterback? Cause there's no Tom Brady this year. I'll think, well, there's,

there's only one time Brady ever. Yeah. I don't think so. Like who is like, who is that guy who's going to the quarterback i don't know there's a lot of there's there's plenty of conversation about i mean hank in our chat is having a monologue with himself about derrick carr that's one that the internet has seemed to like i don't think that they're that vegas could even get off of that one if really if they wanted um rogers is the one of

course everyone's gonna be talking about if if they could figure out what to do there but yeah it's it's sort of like a big uh it's a big logical jump to go from you know hey we're just a quarterback away to where's the quarterback um well yeah i mean i think that you have to say it's the draft that does at the moment unless um derrick carr is not the guy hank don't be doing that i'm i'm surprised hank didn't put in quinn ewers in his 55 completion percentage this season don't tempt him i i wonder he's 18 i wonder if the russell wilson trade dissuades teams from making trades for veterans like they did in that trade the one guy by the

way is aaron rogers right like that's the guy to go to the jets if jordan love plays well down the stretch here but it's still unlikely so people have written that off i mean i think we should probably just talk about that for a second so people have written that off i'm not a contract expert certainly not rogers contract but it does seem like the Packers now have this unbelievable opportunity to play Jordan Love for the rest of this essentially lost season at this point. Can you imagine what will happen to the NFL if he's good? I think that that's one of the great dominoes that we could have left for this whole season. And it's on a team that doesn't matter. But if all of a sudden, like they find an offense with Watson going and the running backs going, I don't know. After watching Game of Jordan Love, I mean, he sucked last year. I said on the radio Sunday that I thought the news about Aaron Rodgers' thumb came out because it makes it easier to bench him and go to Jordan Love by saying he's hurt.

Now, obviously, he hurt his rib or something, so maybe it makes it much easier. But the Packers are 4-8. They're out of this, Matt. I would go ahead, play Jordan Love, see what you got on Jordan Love, and then you decide after the season we trade them do we trade one or the other right do we trade rogers or do we trade love um it's a good you know yeah a good five six week test for jordan love he's in year three like either has or doesn't by now yeah well it's so interesting that rogers now honestly like i view this as a really interesting test for him. The big knock on a reason why people wouldn't trade for him is, is he a psycho? Is he going to kill your team?

He pretty much single-handedly has killed the Packers despite getting them at least whatever, the second round of the playoffs the last couple of years. If he comes back and he's like a supportive mentor to Jordan Love for a few games, his trade value is great. I think that, you know, somebody would still go and trade for a $50 million quarterback and slide him into a situation like the Jets. Like, I think it's a really interesting opportunity for him that's totally off the field and probably not something anyone's talking about. No one talked about it because I don't think we thought they would ever bench on Rodgers. No, because they're relevant every single year he plays. It's going to be a really interesting storyline to see how that comes out.

Speaking of interesting in the NFC, I would like to spend a few minutes talking about the NFC East. They're in the news for lots of reasons, including Odell Beckham, who we'll get to in a minute. But as it stands now, Jeff, four NFC East teams are in the playoffs, which is just unbelievable. So I guess, I don't know. Why don't we start with Philly last night? They got a close win against Green Bay. It does feel like the Philly sort of magic is wearing off a little bit. Do you think that they end up holding off Dallas to win the division? Or do you think that there's

some reason to worry? I think they hold dallas for the division because they're just they're better than dallas is their defense is a concern their defense has gotten worse throughout the season uh maybe when um you know jordan davis comes back the middle of the defense is better you know jalen hertz had an incredible game running the ball you know the rest of what like 300 plus yards against the Packers. But, you know, again, like the quarterback running so much is not sustainable as an offense to win Super Bowls. We know that.

So is he, you know, we'll continue. And he's made some great throws this year. I'm just kind of speaking out loud as far as thinking about this through. Like, you know, is he going to continue to make some of the special plays from the pocket? Important to do that. The Cowboys are going to continue to make some of the special plays from the pocket. Important to do that. The Cowboys are going to be there, but again, it feels like there's some up and

down to them each week, too. Very good team. Very good team. Giants are not making the playoffs. They're coming back on Earth hard and fast like we thought they would. Their schedule is very tough. We talked about this down the stretch. The Commanders is the question. The Commanders, man, like, geez.

They are, they're not, like, good. Like, so they've won six of the last seven. You ready? They beat the Bears, okay, by five. That was with Carson Wentz. They beat the Packers by three. The Colts by one. Lost the Vikings by three, smashed the Eagles, beat the Texans by 13 in an ugly game, and beat the Falcons by six on Sunday.

Like, they're not good. They're okay. Like, it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't make the playoffs. But around the NFC right now, i don't know who are the many challengers right so seattle's an eighth seed right now it feels like they can keep themselves in the playoff hunt throughout but the rest of the nfc look the lions are two games back technically uh sorry two and a half games back yeah two two and a half games back they haven't had a or washington hasn't had a bye yet, right?

Washington's on bye this week, I imagine. They play the Giants this week. Then they have a bye still. Okay. So, that's a late bye. Wow. Then they have the Giants again. Yeah.

We go Giants by Giants. So, the Lions are two and a half games back, basically, from that seventh seed. Feels unlikely that they're going to get there. Atlanta's five and seven. They're two games back they're not getting there the packers are not the cardinals are not the panther so like it's really just cowboys giants commanders seahawks three of those four are going to be in that in those in the wild card spots i would put my money on dallas washington and Seattle. Yeah, so basically you're saying the Giants drop out for Seattle.

It's funny. They're kind of mirroring each other. The Geno experience is definitely coming back to earth a little bit. And then the Giants, I mean, the Giants just – But the Seahawks didn't lose on Sunday because their offense, their defense was terrible. Yeah, which was surprising. I mean, still, it's against tampa too it just wasn't

quite the same i think i i mean i think for washington i think for any of these teams this is what always happens at the bottom of the playoffs like washington every game is decided by the last play so it's hard to sort of say like yes they're good or yes they're bad i agree yeah it seemed it they have the thing that the giants had earlier in the year where they just won all these games it's crazy to think that the bucks could host a playoff game and they would probably be like seven point underdogs to Dallas. If they were hosting Dallas, I think like you need to be that many.

I think so. I mean, Dallas, I think you could make the argument that Dallas is the best team in the NFC right now. I think any of these teams, like you could talk me into about five different teams winning the nfc because you could really just say all of them are good and

all of them suck like this the argument you could make about the eagles you could make the same about the vikings the same about the diners it's like who do you really trust and um it should be really fun one of the the sort of things that i i want to ask you about specifically since you played with him is Odell. So for whatever reason, everyone's obsessed with where he's going to go. He obviously was a contributor to that team last year in the Rams, was a key player for them. But I don't think we're talking about a top 30 wide receiver, maybe not even a top 50 wide receiver, given the amount of talent in the league something happened with him on the airplane this week uh it seems like he was maybe going to go to dallas i i guess like

were you i mean what was your reaction when you saw the stories about him both as you know how he could impact the team and then what you know happens on the airplane so a listener submitted a question to us by the way okay. Okay. One of Hank's friends, a listener question from Andrew said, he said, he just theorized it, American Airlines is based in Dallas. They're based in a couple of cities. Dallas is one of them.

Charlotte or where I live is another one. Did Jerry Jones orchestrate this whole thing to lower his basically free agency stock so Jones can snag him up on the cheap? Great question. Great cheap. Great question. Great question. Great question. How Machiavellian. I don't know if I put it,

put it past Jerry Jones. They don't do anything. I mean, the report I guess was that he was in and out of consciousness. Wouldn't put his seatbelt on. They asked him, they basically deep playing the whole plane for him. Essentially. He said that wasn't true. Doesn't de-planned the whole plane for him, essentially.

He said that wasn't true. Doesn't matter at all. If he's drunk at 9 a.m., he's drunk at 9 a.m. Like, whatever. I mean, you're allowed to drink. You're allowed to, like, he's not in the NFL at the moment. I don't think that matters at all, quite honestly. I think his addition, we saw what he did with the Rams last year,

how impactful he was. Like, that's what Dallas was hoping, right? Like, anyone. It's just three or four plays a game that are really, really important and he comes through in those moments. Yeah. Well, it's funny. I mean, he...

It's not a perfect analogy, but there is something about him in the league where, like, he gets everyone's attention, like, players' attention. Like like they seem to just be so aware of what's going on with him it kind of i mean they've diverged quite a bit but it kind of reminds me of kairi in the nba where there's this sort of just like separate respect for kairi as a player that i feel like most fans are like yeah he's good like he won

a championship once like he wasn't the best player on the team but he got his ring um but it just feels like odell has this like aura around him where every time he tweets like micah parsons is talking von miller's talking like i just don't understand what it is though he's like very friendly like the like i've been like i play with him like i i he's great like teammates love him man he's fun to be around guys like him a lot so that to me you know that's why players want him to be there he's good football player but i think they like being around them too so just like he's just that good of a guy like that's basically what you'd say is he's yes huh that's great i hope that i hope he's okay i mean it was it was a troubling report um i do think he's gonna end up on the Cowboys, right?

Like, that just seems like that's going to happen. I does feel that way, yes. The Giants make no sense to me. Yeah, I mean, they just, well, they make sense in that they don't have a single player who can play wide receiver on their whole team. Okay, why don't we, anything else just big picture-wise NFL you want to do before we hit our over-unders? No, not really. I think we covered it all. No, Chiefs won.

Chiefs managed to beat Bryce Perkins. That was a pretty easy one. I think since we're here and we don't talk betting, we don't usually get to talk betting twice in a week, I think that we really missed one on Miami. I think Houston is absolutely dead in the water, and that's one we should have seen coming. Yeah, but Miami covered by like half a dead in the water. And that was one that we should have. That's one we should have seen coming. Yeah.

But by Matt Miami covered by like half a point in the end today, the one by 15, they still, I mean, yes. So they would have covered by one or one and a half. I still think that that one, I still think that that Houston is an opportunity.

Like, I think they're getting a little bit of respect still any other early lines this week. I feel like this is a really good week of games. So, I mean, this sounds like against what I would normally say, but the Bengals plus three at home on Sunday is like, I feel like that's where you have to look. They host the Chiefs.

A couple other things that come to mind very, very early. Lions are favored by one over Jacksonville. That doesn't feel, that feels kind of low in my opinion. Lions probably should are favored by one over jacksonville that doesn't feel uh that feels kind of low in my opinion uh lions probably should be favored by more yep the the browns see this the browns texans game you just can't bet on watson right now you just can't do it but they're the only texans are so bad there's not many that come to mind i mean i dolphins plus three and a half on the road in san franc feels, I feel it's too trendy though. That's not gonna be my problem with that one.

Um, what do you like so far? First glance, I think, uh, Vikings minus three against Mike white and the jets. That's a pretty interesting one with the extra time. Um, we'll see how real this quarterback is. Great test. Uh, Washington laying points at the giants is is fascinating kind of like the giants yeah i don't know man this is a real it's we're really getting close here like we'll see what ends up happening but i think the the lessons from this last week are we can't trust the ravens anymore

i would love to bet against the texans anytime maybe not this week um but i don't know we had a tough week but i still don't think i still I still don't think we were that dumb with our picks. I think we got hosed on a few. We definitely did. It happens, man. We had a bad week. We will bounce back. We will. And we won't have to pick on Tuesdays anymore. Let's take a break and we can move on to move the line. Perfect. Let's take a break and we can move on to move the line.

Perfect. All right, Jeff, we're back. We're moving the line. Let's start with the NFC South, the decrepit NFC South. Over under eight and a half games won by the NFC South champion, likely to be Tampa. Dude, I thought Todd Bowles would be a good coach at Tampa Bay, a good head coach. I thought Byron Lefwich would be a good office coordinator

away from Bruce Arians. I'm wrong about all of that. There was today, Todd Bowles was asked why he didn't call timeout at the end of the Bucs game. He had three timeouts left. They had the ball, I don't know, about around midfield like 30 seconds left. Could have taken a couple timeouts,

got in the field goal range. Because the answer was Tom Brady might have thrown an interception. That's unreal. What? That is unbelievable. What? This is the greatest quarterback of all time, Todd Bowles. What are we talking about?

They had a fourth and two at the Browns 37 and punted. The first drive of the game, Rashad White, the running back from Arizona State, who is now their lead guy, or at least was, a 35-yard run. 35-yard run, right? Against one of the worst rushing defenses of all the NFL, the Cleveland Browns. So I was like, sweet, man. He must rush for a lot of yards this weekend.

Nope, 64 yards. Like, the game plan, the design, the execution, it's not good. Just not good. So they're at five wins now, right? You said eight and a half. Saints, Niners, Bengals, Cardinals, Panthers. I would say under. I'd say there'd be eight, nine, eight, nine. It's pretty insane that we're still talking about how the saints and

Panthers have a shot at that division. Like it's not, it's, it's unlikely, but it's not impossible. Reminder that Tom Brady and the saints, that's his kryptonite. They play this week. Then he goes to San Francisco. One of the best front fours in the league it could get ugly and then they have cincy and the cardinals who are weird on christmas like a lot can still happen there um atlanta is like man i can't tell if atlanta is close to being good or

if they're just terrible and they have a good coach and a good scheme um and yeah the panthers and saints are awful i if the Bucks make the playoffs, I think they get absolutely waxed by whoever they play in round one. There is not a team. It may be Seattle if they were to somehow play them in round one, but I don't see how that could happen. But I don't

think any of those teams would take care of them. The Panthers are 4-8, Matt, and I thought for sure we would lose our Panthers over 6.5 win total wager. We're still alive. Still alive. Still extremely alive. They still play the Lions, the Saints.

They play the Steelers. All those are possible. Sam Darnold a little bit. He looked, I don't know, he didn't look terrible. He looked like, I think PJ Walker is still their best quarterback. But that's probably enough Panthers talk for for anybody's uh enjoyment on this show um let's move to another the team that the panthers beat actually the broncos so russell wilson got into that little sideline scuffle things just keep getting worse for denver

over under how many broncos teammates had russ's back in that sideline dispute with defensive tackle so over under 0.5, you're saying zero. Felt pretty low. Zero. No one had his back. It's bad, man. This is going down as one of the worst trades in NFL history. It really is.

The Panthers' defense is not good, and you couldn't score at all. Zero. Zero. Zero players had his back. So two interesting parts of that. The first is how can you, we just talked about this with Heineke and with Mike White. Like, can you regain that if you're a Russell Wilson?

Like, is there a world where he could, if he just started playing better, could he turn this around? Or is it like, or is this one of those things that given his past in Seattle and how he's played here, like you just can't really get it back. Once you've proven to a bunch of guys who you are,

not this year, you can't next year. You can start earning that back. Not this year is done. I think there's a pretty interesting conversation online about, is this Hackett? Is this Russ? Is it both?

It's both. So if you replace what kind of, I mean, Hackett's not going to make it. If Hackett make it fire, we're on, we're on this recording. It's possible. What kind of, I mean, hack, it's not going to make it hack. It might get fire. We're on, on this recording. It's possible.

What kind of coach would you hire to get the best out of Wilson at this point? Is it a relationship or is it like he needs a whole scheme to like fit his skillset as he declines? So I think that Wilson, he kind of needs to correct these issues with himself first before the coach can help him. Like I had a high school football coach, a coach whose name was Jason Blatt, and he was awesome.

And he gave me some, some like life sayings that I've kind of used throughout my life. And I'm actually not a big one of these, like people that has motivational quotes or like listens to devotionals and all that. I don't need any of that in my life. But this one has stuck with me. He said, don't lie to yourself.

Don't lie to yourself. It's my favorite quote. Because like deep down, we both know in our lives, Matt, like what we're doing, what effort we're putting into things, how we're handling situations. And it's very easy to lie to yourself about anything. And if you're Russell Wilson, it's very easy to say, you know what?

It's their fault. It's their fault. They're not doing what I want done. The offense is their fault. We're not succeeding because my teammates aren't getting along with me. And their fault. You got to look within yourself, man.

And you can't lie to yourself about where you're at right now. And if Russell Wilson cannot figure out his issue in the relationship in Denver, no coach is going to work. No coach. So that has to happen first. Wilson has to figure out what went wrong from his angle first, from his perspective, from him, before they can even really get a new coach

and they can help him out at all. Yeah, it doesn't really feel like a scheme problem. Like, to some degree... No, there's guys open all the time. There's guys open all the time, and it's also like... It's possible that they have one of these like all-time terrible coaching hires like i was reading today somebody's arm might have been

barnwell was writing that hackett's job is an offensive coordinator in green bay he never had to call the plays because of the floor before that he was the fired offensive coordinator with blake boros He was just totally trash. It is possible that this was just like a historically terrible hire, in which case, like, but at some point, the last few weeks, especially like he, Russ cannot, he can't, there's no excuse for playing this poorly. Like we're talking about like, correct. Not even a top 40 quarterback in the last couple weeks um but i don't know it's you're right this could end up being the this could end up being the thing that resets how quarterbacks get traded like especially yeah

deshaun watson if he comes back and if he's if he's ends up being terrible too then all of a sudden it's like well wait a minute like why is – are we looking at this whole position wrong? So we said Denver would not make the playoffs this year if you listen to our podcast. And the reason why we said that – well, at least I said that. I think you agreed with me anyways. I did. It was that Hackett had never proven himself like by himself.

He had never done an offense or run an offense by himself and it's showing this year i called this man i knew there was i didn't think they showed this badly but i knew they would struggle by the way our our nfc our afc west uh picks are the best of any division we did this year we're gonna we're gonna probably hit one, two, three, four, five of the six, including the Pat Mahomes MVP wager. So I'm beginning to think, by the way, that we should never take overs for anything. Like for any player props, never take overs, unless it's like the Amon Ross St. Brown one,

where it's like 800 yards, you're like, yeah, he's going to have 1,300. Like all our overs stink our overs have not been good jeff we might end up hitting our uh burrow's gonna get his 35 touchdowns we'll get that one we'll get a few we'll get a few 23 so far interesting we're gonna get my homes over probably um but our unders are our unders are our money bro our player prop unders are money, bro. Our player prop unders are money. They are. We're going on an over-under tandem within our over-under segment. This is like watching Inception for the first time. Speaking of Inception, let's give Matt Rule a little bit of an idea about his future here.

How many years will Matt Rule coach at Nebraska? That deal got done over the weekend. Over, under, two and a half. Oh, he'll get at least three. He won at Baylor. He won at Temple. Maybe he's more suited to be a college football coach. Pretty simple, right?

What would be the reason for that? Just enjoys the recruiting more than the grinding tape? Maybe just those younger players relate to him better. It just didn't work in Carolina. He never got a quarterback. He never made it work. Maybe he just relates better to younger players. It can didn't work in Carolina. He never got a quarterback. He never made it work. Maybe he just relates better to younger players. It can be that simple.

Kind of like Steve Wilks. Kind of like the story. Kind of like the way they've been playing for him. He's not going to get the job. I don't think that's splashy enough for Tepper. What do you think of Nebraska as far as like a... Is that a good hire for them? It feels like for a program that hasn't been good for a while that that's actually an amazing hire yes um i i like to i do like to hire right i think

it's it's he again he wanted two schools that traditionally don't win a lot temple and baylor yeah yeah program builder for sure um okay speaking of of college coaches uh everyone is sort of talking about trevor lawrence still we mentioned him earlier as sort of getting this free pass and like now everyone's getting really hyped up about him for winning his fourth game this season uh he's won seven total games in his career um over under one and a half more seasons until we stopped giving him a pass just because he played for urban Meyer as a rookie. What do you think next, next year that ends,

you think that ends next? Yes. A hundred percent agree next year. So I think he looked, he is like, something's going on. Like, I feel like it's finally starting to click with him and he's starting to

like do that thing where you, when he goes back on third and seven, you're like, I think he's got it. And that's just watching through the TV, and there's 20 other games on, but he does feel like he's maybe turned the corner a little bit. There was one of his teammates who came out and basically said, look, last year's a wrap because it doesn't matter last year because of his coach. Again, next year becomes that year when you get you know one year with doug peterson we don't have to hear any more about the year with urban meyer it's very easy to get a very good wide receiver out of nowhere and i feel like jacksonville might do that and all of a sudden they can look pretty good hey did you see that uh the ohio state fans

were calling for urban to come back did you see see that? I don't. Sure. I saw one where someone did a funny mock of Urban being the coach at Stanford. The opposite of David Shaw. David Shaw. We didn't talk about that at all. Over-under seasons until David Shaw is a head coach again somewhere. Let's set the over- at a 0.5.

Will he be a coach again next year? I just made this one up on the fly. He will do as much as Gabe wants to will him to be a coach on a text message thread. He can not stop talking about David Shaw as a coach of like random programs and NFL teams. I think he'll take the year off. He is awesome on television.

He will do the television route. He's great at it. But guys, his teams have not been good for over two years now. Like they have Stanford won three games this season. Now they had some injuries that, you know, it's not all his fault, but they won four games a year before um they they lost games this year by 11 7 35 38 25 one they won a couple games lost by one lost by 17 lost by 18 like they they they're not good like he hasn't they haven't been good so i i don't know what you expect him to do in the NFL right now.

I think he takes a year off, recharges, does TV and comes back and coaches at some point. He's long been a guy who people have talked about in the NFL. But if, I mean, good track record in the NFL quarterback coach on a Superbowl team, receivers coach.

I remember for years, they were, they were talking about him being a possible head coach. I think he's probably done some interviews. But that's when they were winning 10 games. Right. That's when they had Andrew Luck. So the last four years under Shaw. I'll give you the last three seasons, the full, not the COVID year. Ready?

Nine, three, and three for win totals. Not great, Jeff. Not great. Yeah. Okay, so last question here, I guess. Let's talk about the other football. Points earned by, we're taping this Monday. People are going to listen to this maybe Tuesday morning.

The USA, if they win, they are in. They play Iran. be tuesday morning the usa if they win they are in they play iran over under two and a half points earned by team usa against iran tomorrow and how much world cup are you watching i have it on in the background like i think it was i think uh ronaldo was playing today right well we were have this on yeah i think as we speak yeah yeah um so like infamil office it's on i'll just have like the last like 10 minutes of every game are kind of exciting when it's close you know um it it was funny though when usa committed the penalty against wales that got a penalty kick um i was ready to go to twitter and be very angry

at the officials because we're always angry about officials everyone was like yeah that's a penalty shouldn't have done it. I was very disappointed in American sports fans. We should have been angrier. Angry. Bad call. I just love this. I understand everyone loves soccer. I'm not here to

disparage soccer. But the fact of being cited for a tie blows my mind. It's unbelievable. We tied England! We played like being cited for a tie blows my mind. It's unbelievable. We, we tied England. We, we played.

Wow. I'm like, whoa. Okay, cool. So you know what? Go team USA. We're going to beat Iran,

get those three points and move on to the next round. Knockout round. I believe it's called. Let's go. Hey, I got one more thing for you. A buddy just texted me. I swear to God, a buddy just texted me this.

And he was like, what side are you on on this bet? And I was like, I am going to bring this up on the show I am currently on. Okay. Here's a bet. The 2023 Super Bowl winner this year, it's Bills, Eagles, or Chiefs versus the field. Okay. The field is plus 100 bills eagles or chiefs are minus 120 what side are you on oh minus 120 with i'm not taking the field i feel like it's actually like a pretty good bet to take the to lay the minus 120. Yes. So, okay. Like, who are you really worried about? You can also just hedge out

of this at some point, right? That's true. You have a KC minus 120 hosting Buffalo in the Super Bowl. You could you know, I guess right there, you won't take any money there in the Super Bowl. You just pick the other side.

If one of those three teams makes the Super Bowl, you take the other side. Right. One of those three. The Eagles are the shakiest, but it seems impossible that someone else would win the AFC, right? I mean, it's the Dolphins or the Bills. The Dolphins.

Could you just say, if the Chiefs put the Dolphins in the playoffs, can you take the Dolphins and the other side of the Dolphins? That would be the best. I think that would be my favorite possible playoff game. Dolphins. Could you just say, if the chiefs put the dolphins in the playoffs, can you take the dolphins and the other side of the dolphins? And like, that would be the best. I think that would be my favorite possible playoff game. That dolphins chiefs. That would be incredible. But like my point is like,

I would, the minus one 20 is better. You're going to get better. It's better value than, than taking them individually. Right. It's in the, if you came in the playoffs individually, not now individually,

now you get better number. Well, you, you have to assume that the Eagles and chiefs are going going to be the one seed and if you get that then you're basically saying they only have to get two wins correct either of them so the odds are so good if i think you kind of have to i think you kind of have to lay it this is a pretty good bet i think so too huh all right well i'll have to uh have a discussion with my buddy off air but i'm glad he got that in there uh in there too um yeah well look at that

goal right there well how do you feel about the the var the the var system well i had a buddy speaking of betting who bet switzerland today against brazil plus 700 on the money line and uh they had a brazil had a goal and we were all talking shit and then the var overturned it and i was like excuse me what is the var what is this but i don't know it seems like it's just the same problem in every sport where every sport except tennis has a problem with the review like it's just i i don't know it feels like it you know one one day it it's fine and then another day it's taking points off the board and you're missing stuff and i i don't know what do you think i'm i i mean look they seem to get it right more often than not i mean i'd rather get it right i guess right i guess so yeah i guess when it's quick that is the nice thing is

they haven't had like it's not like the nba end of the game where it's like charge or block for 10 minutes. And that's just killer. Absolutely. I'm trying to coordinate as we're talking right now just that no one cares. I know that a podcast I like to listen to is Parent Corner. Not Parent Corner. The end of the Simmons podcast. I'm just dealing with trying to coordinate my kid's baseball lesson

that needs to happen 45 minutes away from here with my parents taking him because my wife can't get off work. I'm about like you gotta leave now to get there i mean just oh hopefully you have kids one day matt you experience the joy of scheduling i only have two gabe situation is much worse yeah gabe's gabe's yeah three kids gabe's got a crowd i think three's a crowd um yeah, man. No kids yet. I just – all I've got to worry about is that my fantasy team lost by – for the second time this year, Jeff, I had a fantasy loss by less than a single point. This week, Jeff, I lost a fantasy game by 0.3, and it was my second closest loss of the year. And I think I might be out.

I think I might be fantasy broken forever. I'm not really – it's a fantasy thing to me. I just I might be fantasy broken forever I'm I'm not really it's a fancy thing to me I just can't I don't know if I have time for it like mentally have time for it you don't even have time for your own podcast so why don't we why don't we let you figure out your life and get off the air it's so bad I'm just like it has like my

kid has to leave like now like he's gonna leave now he's gonna be late geez being a parent is so much fun working at home is great well hopefully you listen to this maybe you didn't but good for you guys please leave a good for you for the parent corner podcast podcast hopefully my kid gets there in time everybody um have a great couple of days i know every parent deals with this not just not just me um please leave a rating and power by the Varsity Podcast Network. Be back later this week with Matt to do some gambling.

Hopefully we're better. We're better. And I'll have a pick, by the way, for every conference championship game, every major one at least, on our show Thursday as well. So, by the way, Pac-12 finished this year 32 and 21 so that puts me at like 90 something and 50 something all time

it's automatic it's like you're it's Jeff with the Pac-12 and Mike Tomlin is a home underdog it's just an auto bet I think I'm 97 and 58 all time in Pac-12. Wow.

Yeah, three years. That's really good. Pretty good, yeah. All right, guys. Have a great couple of days. Talk to you on Thursday. Take care.