Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Upset Sunday and Geoff and Gabe Live-React to Chargers/Raiders Game

Episode Date: January 10, 2022

In a very exciting episode of Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You, Geoff is joined by Gabe during the fourth quarter of the Chargers vs Raiders game on Sunday night to talk the Jaguars’ big upset, which NFC teams can challenge MVP Rodgers and the Packers, and what the hell is happening in the greatest tie game that never was. The Raiders got into the playoffs, and they won’t have to play the Chiefs in the first round… but they may have just made an enemy for life in Justin Herbert.On Moving the Line, Geoff and Gabe talk players chasing bonuses in week 18, debate whether Deebo Samuel is a prototype, plus Geoff tells you whether or not the Manning Curse is worth believing in.Rate, comment, and follow the podcast if you enjoyed, and tweet @geoffscwartz with what you thought of the Raiders decision not to kneel. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Monday, January 10th. I'm Jeff Schwartz alongside Gabe Goen. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smarter Than You, powered by the Varsity Podcast Network. Guys, there is a minute and 17 seconds left in Sunday Night Football right now. It's 3rd and 10. The Vegas Raiders are up 29-22. The winner of this game goes to playoffs. A tie in this game, they both go to the playoffs. So we're going to do our show as we watch the end of this game. We have so much to talk about because today, of course,

did not go like it was supposed to because it's the NFL, and that's why we love the NFL, right? The Colts choked. The Chiefs are the two seed. The Bucks are the two seed. The Niners are in the playoffs, right? So much to talk about, and we have this beautiful game finishing seed. The Niners are in the playoffs, right? So much to talk about. And we have this beautiful game finishing up.

This is why we love the NFL, right, guys? We love the NFL because it gives us this entertainment on the final week of the season. Each year, Gabe, without fail, it's now 4th and 10, a minute and 12 left. This is why we love it, right, Gabe? This is it. It's week 18. We love this. It's just injected in my veins, dude.

This never should have been an entertaining weekend, and everything we needed to happen happened. Fourth and 10. Here we are. Everything needed to happen because this is what our sport does, right? I hit a plus 685 money line ticket on the Jaguars. The Jaguars beat the colts by two touchdowns the colts were favored by 14 and a half points like this is what this is the nfl man it's

unbelievable each week like the chargers uh oh i see oh incomplete pass chargers are three timeouts left though hold on a minute six left oh i'm a little ahead of you because there's a flag on the play so the fourth and ten in completion is actually going to be a chargers first down and so rough in the passer it's gonna it's gonna be a holding a holding oh no oh unbelievable unbelievable um think about this though the charger in this spot they're supposed to you know a month ago right they were going to beat the Chiefs and win the division. And they allowed three straight, and that's a legit penalty, by the way, they had three straight 75-yard touchdown drives by the Chiefs

to lose the division in that night, then went on the road and lost the Texans by two touchdowns, then beat the bad Broncos, and now they're, oh, Max, that's a fight, pick up the ball jeff the delay between us is going to be unbelievably painful for you because i'm about nine seconds ahead of you so max crosby forced the fumble beat the right tackle it was picked up that's incomplete pass it was picked up by herbert're going to have to bring this ball back here. That was an incomplete pass. They're going to have to bring this back.

Max Crosby is terrorizing the Chargers. You're a Chargers fan now. Chargers need to right tackle more than anything else in the draft, in the fringe, whatever they need to do. They need to right tackle in the worst way. So this game is continuing to go crazy. Oh, man. And then, look, we had the teams that I don't trust

just choked away today, right? Rams, Cardinals, the teams I don't like, I don't trust. A lot of things ended up going my way this year, Gabe, as far as predictions I had. So I feel pretty good about at least the bad predictions, right? Like just the players I said weren't going to be any good, who everyone thought was going to be good. Listen, big themes the big themes that you laid out for us weeks and weeks and weeks ago have all more or less played out and uh we made a rule many weeks ago that we would not speak of the team in indianapolis nor their quarterback because

ultimately they were irrelevant they proved that on. I mean, super relevant by blowing that game, but irrelevant to the playoff race. You said the Cowboys were going to be better than most people thought and a real contender in the NFC. They certainly look like that ending week 18. You've said that Aaron Rodgers is going to be the MVP, no matter how people might feel about all the headlines he's created this year.'s going to happen uh you know you got a lot of stuff right and you said the chiefs were going to be back in the hunt when everyone else counted about at three and four um what you didn't predict was that the final 58 seconds of the regular season were going to be this tense and that roger goodell was going to be pooping his pants worrying about what happens if there actually is a tie heading to overtime

where both teams are incentivized not to try to score. Yes, and that's going to be interesting if we even get there, right? Because the incentive will be to not score in overtime. You can make the case that you played a full game. You didn't tie on purpose, right? No one tied on purpose. And the Chargers and Raiders

should absolutely play for a tie in overtime. 100% should do that. They should run the ball three times punt, run the ball three times punt, and just go into bliss of an overtime. Look, dude, I don't know how the Steelers did it this year. They have a quarterback that throws like Jamie Moyer out there. He just can't throw the ball at all. My brother said it's Mark Burley, right?

At least he throws quickly. The pass that the Steelers, the Big Ben, threw to get into field goal range to win that game in overtime. Gabe, the wide receiver was wide open. It was eight yards away, and the pass barely made it there. Like, Big Ben, and the Steelers are in the playoffs here with the end at third and ten right now, a minute left. The Chargers are going to convert like eight straight fourth downs

on this drive to win this game too. This is like, it's unbelievable. The Chargers have really changed the way you should look at conventional wisdom. The right guard jumped off sides. They play every series with four shots at it instead of three, and it changes everything about the play calling on third down. Yeah, well, the right guard just moved there. They didn't call that.

Jeff, why don't we work at your feed here because I'm a little ahead of you, and you're probably the guy who makes us smarter. You should give us what's going on here. This will be a weird thing to listen to Monday morning, but it's fun to hear Jeff's reactions to this in real time. Yeah, it was the record had a false start on the third downplay. So Jeff, I mean, the booth was reluctant, I think, to even bring up the possibility of it, what you just said, it might make more sense to play for a tie if you reach overtime having tried to win, right? And there's no question.

Both these teams are trying to win this game. Impossible to argue that. But if they do end up tying, which happens, and they go to overtime, they have to just agree not to compete. And it seemed like the NBC broadcast really didn't want to admit that. But late, late, late in the game, they started to open that up. Well, because it was a 15-point, well, first of all, it was a 12-point game, and Adam Schefter tweeted out, and then it was a 15-point game.

Chargers score, they're down nine. They go for two, right, at that point. Now, the idea is if you miss it, you at least know you need nine points you need two scores if you make it you just need one score to tie right so you at least know what you need now it's bold obviously with four minutes left to do that but they converted now the seven point game look i said beforehand that i would absolutely i would absolutely be in agreement if if both teams just said you know what we're not going to play to win. Because your job in the end is to get in the playoffs in this game.

That's what both of their jobs are, right? And if that's what you're trying to do, then you need to go ahead and play for a tie. Now, they didn't. Both sides played hard. But in overtime, it'd be malpractice if they both didn't play for a tie. Now, they didn't. Both sides played hard. But in overtime, it'd be malpractice if they both didn't play for a tie. Yeah. And let me let me layer on to that. If you pay any attention to the Chargers, like

Brandon Staley is a is a human spreadsheet, you know, like the guy's totally rational. He's the guy who knows exactly what you hit on in blackjack. Like, he's not going to make any crazy emotional decisions. He only does what is the slightly better odds for him mathematically. And Basakia has got to make the playoffs to keep this job. He's interim currently. I think he'd more than earn the full-time head coaching job going into next season if he turned this mess into a playoff team in Las Vegas. So neither of them wants to miss the playoffs. It's totally set up for it.

Now, obviously, the hard part is the Chargers getting into the end zone in the final 45 seconds. That's no given. I mean, how many plays have they had in this drive so far? Oh, my God. It seems like. The balls, it's the second and 10, 30 seconds left. They've had to have, I've got to look this up now. They've had 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 plays so far.

Yeah, and almost every one of them has looked just the same. Just Justin Herbert rolling back, moving to his left a little bit, firing at about 90 miles an hour, and mostly in completions, but a few penalties and completions, and he's, you know, moving towards midfield. In about 100 seconds, like they've had about 14 plays.

So many plays. Now, of all the quarterbacks in the league, I mean, obviously guys like Brady and Rodgers come to mind, but isn't Justin Herbert the guy, of the young guys, the guy you want most in this situation? Well, yes, he has the physical skills, and he's made some throws tonight with bodies around him that have been just incredible, right? Like, they've been wild. The physical tools, yes, you'd want that.

And he throws the ball out. It's high. I think he's out of bounds. I'm curious what they're going to call here. Yeah, he was out of bounds. So fourth and 10, 22 seconds left, the 15th play of this drive. Guys, it's the 15th play. They started at the 17-yard line.

They're still at the 43. They've gone 50 yards, and they've had all these plays. This is clearly out of bounds. Oh, I don't know. Does foot get in bounds, Gabe? What do you think? Does right foot get down? Oh, no, his hand hits.

His hand's hit first. Okay, so he's out. These rules have changed over the years, and I think you can probably enlighten us to this. So he didn't get both toes down. That's easy to see. But as he comes down, his hand makes contact out of bounds before his second toe touches his hands.

Yeah, he's out. That's out of bounds. So that feels like he's out of bounds, being pushed out of bounds. When we were growing up, they called, there was the, you know, if you push a guy out of bounds, they call that a catch. That's right. They don't call that. That would have been a catch up until a few years ago it's more like it's more than been like 10 years now it's been a long time well okay but like you said as when we were kids

that's a catch and it's not really even close the force out you know but now look his left foot hits i know this is great radio and then his right hand and then his left hand hits out of bounds. So he's out of bounds. But fourth and 10 again, which is now going to be the, what is this? So this is the, they've had one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, third and fourth, third or fourth and tens on this drive. Here it is right here. 22 seconds left. Oh, he almost jumped off sides,

but no one jumped. So they're not going to call that. Here they go. I don't know how the Raiders are able to move at all. This is incredible. What did I say? Eight, third and tens? I didn't hear you because I'm watching in the future, Jeff.

And all I got to say to you is bolt up, brother. This drive stays alive. Justin Herbert keeps moving the chains. They're on the Raiders side of the field now with 15 seconds to play. It's first and 10, and they are within a shot of the end zone at the 29-yard line. I know. This is one of the wildest drives I've ever seen in the NFL. I'm not going to lie.

No hyperbole. This is one of the oddest drives I've ever seen in NFL NFL. I'm not going to lie. This is, no hyperbole, this is one of the oddest drives I've ever seen in NFL history. So as we kind of wind down here, the end of the season,

the end of regular season here with the wild days we mentioned, things, you know, things were very simple heading into this day, right? If the Colts win,

then this game tonight is a playing game. It was that simple, right? Colts, Colts beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. This playing game happens, the winner of this game tonight is a playing game. It was that simple, right? Colts beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. This playing game happens. The winner of this game goes in. Colts lose.

Steelers now enter. And Steelers, by the way, had to win overtime today. They didn't play that great of a game against a Baltimore team that's so beat up. They won overtime. The Tennessee Titans were up 21-0. All they do is win and get the one seed. They won by three. That game got three posts. 21-18. All they do is win and get the one seed. They won by three. That game got three posts, 21-18 in the fourth quarter.

I see Gabe's cheering in the thing because, again, he's 10 seconds ahead of me. There's 10 seconds left in the game, second and 10. Chargers have no timeout. So if the Raiders run any stupid zero coverage here, I'm going to be very upset with them. I mean, we bet on the Raiders, which is... Oh, he caught it.

So four seconds left. Second, did he catch the Raiders, which is... Oh, he caught it. So four seconds left. Second, did he catch the ball? I don't know. I think he did. They can review this anyways. Looks like a catch to me. A little bit of charging bias here, but looks like a catch to me,

which means there's going to be two to three seconds for the final play inside the 10 if this is a completion. And in the NFL, I mean, in the NFC today, all you needed was the Rams to beat the Niners at home, which they hadn't done in the last five tries. They didn't. They're up 17-0 and lost.

They let Jimmy Garoppolo, Debo Samuel, that Niners offense-defense line, run down the field in the entire second half. Looks like a catch. I agree with you. And then the Cardinals had to beat the Seahawks' six-point favorites to win the West after the Rams lost. The Cardinals lost.

They lost 38 points to the Seahawks today, Gabe. So now the Bucs are the two-seed and get the Eagles at home now. So a big win for them as they jump in the two-seed. And the Saints win. Don't get jump in the two seed and um the saints win don't get in because the niners win in overtime i mean it was it's been an incredible day um this is one of the most incredible drives i've this this is so many well so many plays on this drive is incredible and i'm glad we're documenting it in real time, even as crazy as this will sound to people when they listen, walk in their dog on Monday morning. But credit to the NFL for, you know, they made a switch to have every every single team play a divisional rival in the final week of the season.

So that even if maybe from a numbers perspective, certain games didn't matter, It was very unlikely teams were going to lay down. Even the teams that had every incentive to tank today played their butts off, as you've already described. And so we saw close games or upsets all over the map. I mean, this game that's ending the regular season is as dramatic as anything we've seen in a long time. But all kinds of games that shouldn't have been good were. And I think that's a scheduling win. I think the NFL should take a victory lap on that. Well, that's why a couple years ago they went this direction, right?

So they ended up not having this situation. And it's a huge win for them to end the season with this game, right? And the earlier slate, you've had two overtime games determine playoff situations today, right? Steelers and Ravens in the early window Niners and Rams in the second window and now tonight there's five seconds left first and ten at the 12-yard line Gabe's cheering so I'm imagining the Chargers have scored which is just it's just it's it's there's the fuck up jeff here we go there's no way oh my god and here it is and here it is i'll give you a moment to tweet jeff this is this is too big

for you not to be weighing in and probably we going to have to redo the whole damn thing when we start this podcast. But here we go. No, we're not. No, we're keeping this going. Here we go. Are they going for two? No, they're going to go. They have to play for a tie in overtime.

You have to play for a tie. You absolutely have to play for a tie. There's nothing the Chargers hate more than kickers. There's nothing the Chargers hate more than kickers. But even they knew the only move was to take the extra point, go to overtime. And, I mean, I don't know how you wink and you nod to the opposite sidelines right now, but this is a, like, lay down, nobody get hurt. It's like the old Seinfeld bit when, you know, if the horses understood what was at stake in a race they'd probably all run a little slower i think everyone on the field understands there's

really no point in trying in overtime we both win we both tried our asses off and we both go to the playoffs if we just chill this is a real life example of prisoner's dilemma unlike anything i've ever seen before this is unreal and look they have again they have played the game to a tot they didn't try to tie but they did they absolutely now must not they're not going to agree they're not going to go across the sideline and shake hands agree on this but they absolutely should run the ball punt the ball run the ball punt the ball now the problem is of course if you do that what if the other team doesn't follow suit right again you can't just go across the other team doesn't follow suit? Again, you can't just go across the field and be like, you know what, coach?

We're not going to do this. There has to be an acknowledgment that you're going to try to win. But these two absolutely play for a tie. Yeah. I mean, for listeners who aren't familiar, there's like this whole philosophical theory of the prisoner's dilemma. And go Google it because I can't explain it correctly, but it basically says that two opponents, um, can actually both benefit from doing what's not in their best interest normally. And so this is like, this is it. Like every, if, if you just in the prisoner's dilemma scenario, just keep your mouth shut

and don't rat on the other guy, you're going to get out sooner. If you rat on the other guy, maybe you get out, but it could go the other way. And again, I'm not explaining it correctly. But in this scenario, you're better off not trying to beat the other guy because then he wants to beat you and you could get screwed. I also have Raiders plus three to finish six and one this week. So I'm kind of hoping that I get the Raiders here. This actually would get us back to 500. So while we wait for this to happen, Gabe,

let's start our topics we've tried to talk about so far today. The planned show. I mean, this really changes a whole lot because this sort of sets up a few things that could go either way in the afc let's get the topic how about we start with the nfc then all right so let's let's move to the nfc which is settled we'll come back to the afc in a little bit so basically what we learned this weekend was even though the packers lost uh to the lions i will add with aaron rogers sitting the second. They still had the one seed.

They knew that. They went out there to try to probably put a little extra money in Aaron Rodgers' pocket. We'll talk about that in over-under. But they're going to stay at home all through the playoffs. What's confusing is who the next best team is. And so, Jeff, I want to do something a little bit differently for you. I want to throw at you the arguments I think people will try to make for why the next best team could unseat the Packers.

We've talked about similar stuff in the past, but we're going to keep it super up-to-date after what we saw week 18. So I'm going to throw the take you might hear about the Bucs and the Rams and every other team in the NFC at you. You tell me if it's convincing enough that they could beat the Packers. Does that work? Okay, yes. All right, here we go.

The Bucs. All right, here we go. The Bucs. All right, so they've obviously got Tom Brady still. We know how great he is. He's looked as good as ever. And even without Antonio Brown and the whole mess that he created this past week, the offense worked. Mike Evans is setting personal best records. Gronk was out there doing Gronk things.

The run game improved. The defense, I think, is a bit healthier. The Bucs might be better than the Packers. Tell me why I'm wrong. I think the issue with better is interesting, but I would never count out Tom Brady, just like we were not going to do in this podcast as we head to the playoffs.

My concern with the Bucs is their secondary. And really, look, outside of Evans and Gronk, I mean, those are two, obviously, outstanding weapons. They don't have a second-wide receiver. It's kind of hard to win sometimes in the playoffs without that second-wide receiver. Not second- receiving option, right? They have Gronk and Evans, but that second-wide receiver, right? Without Godwin,

without Brown, I do worry about their secondary. You know, they did allow some points today to Sam Darnold, but their defense lines are really good which is impressive right if they get David and Fournette back for the playoffs obviously they're going to be even better um on uh on both sides of the ball it's just that secondary game that's my concern with the Bucs but they now have at least two home games right as? It's the two seed. So they're going to get the Eagles this weekend, who they should take care of, and then probably, what's going to be the,

who's the three seed? The Cowboys? I mean, they should beat the Cowboys, I think. Cowboys. Obviously, that game in week one doesn't even matter anymore now. So yeah, I think the Packers and Bucs will probably play again,

and they're the best chance to beat the Packers, yes. Okay. Well, so then we agree they're the best chance. You didn't quite tell me if you think they're really better than the Packers, but you're saying they give them the best run. Here's the thing about the Packers that we need to realize. They're one of the few teams that is actually getting healthier at playoff time. It rarely happens.

They got J.R. Alexander back. He didn't have to play today, but David Bokjari, their left tackle, played today. And they're getting an all-pro left tackle back and a pro-bowl, all-pro-ish corner. That's huge for them. They're getting healthy right now. A lot of teams aren't getting healthy.

And so I really do think that they're the best team right now in the NFC. Okay. Well then, let's talk about the Cowboys, who you've been hotter on than me the whole year. I don't know that today's competition against an Eagles team that wasn't playing anyone taught us much, but Dak padded the stats, rounded out what looked statistically like a very good year,

even though we know he didn't play his best ball for long stretches. The defense put up tons of stats, but we've had questions about how meaningful those stats are. I don't quite know what to make of their record. Why do you like them even as much as a couple of the other teams at the top of the NFC? Well, there's nothing to take away from their game against the Eagles. The Eagles played their backups.

Nothing to take away from that. But here's the thing about the Cowboys. Look at what wins playoff games most often, right? Offensive defense alliance, check. Cowboys, check, right? Ball hawk defense, turnovers, check. Yep. Quarterback that can make every throw and is immobile, check.

Like, it's all there now. The problem is it's Mike McCarthy inarthy in the playoffs like that's not great obviously and the chart and as we're doing this the raiders are just running down the throat to the chargers obviously not no prisoners dilemma happening this overtime um and uh and um so yeah there's uh i'm gonna god this we're going to have this overtime discussion, aren't we, on Twitter? It's going to be the worst. It's going to be the worst thing ever.

Herbert didn't get the ball back in overtime. Well, no one was arguing about that earlier with Lamar – with Huntley, or Tyler Huntley in the Ravens. So the Cowboys have the formula because also, too, the Packers have trouble stopping the run, and they could run the ball in the Packers. Like, they have the formula. Now, the packers have trouble stopping the run and they could run the ball in the packers like they have the formula now the problem is again mike mccarthy and how healthy is kind of dag prescott right now um and obviously the game's done against the saturday

night eagles means nothing it means absolutely nothing so the cowboys didn't have a legit chance yes all right fine i'm gonna have to ask you this and make this case even though you know i don't believe it and i already know how you're going to respond but kyler murray is still unreal when he needs to be jj watt could be back they take the ball away they've had stretches where they look like the best team out there why can't the cardinals do it um because they routinely have failed in these moments they started your the year 7-0, finished 3-7, Gabe. They're just not that team. They had a chance today to win the NFC West beating a Seahawks team that is not going to playoffs,

the worst Seahawks team that Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson have been a part of. And they got shellacked today, especially in the second half of that game. They had 305 yards on offense. It's the Seahawks, who are very good. game they had 305 yards on offense yeah it's the seahawks who are very good like i no faith whatsoever that arizona can do anything in the playoffs now they're on the road in los angeles and they're much better on the road they're eight and one on the road this season so maybe there's

something to playing in los angeles and they already beat la on the road early in the season season so i that you know that to me is um maybe the saving grace for for them okay is that they play better on the road but i mean that's a weird thing to count on but fair enough um all right so they're lining up by the way uh the raiders are lining up for a field goal which means the chargers are getting the ball back either way but this nightmare tie scenario now requires a field goal in return from the chargers they don't like to kick field goals we know that about la um but the raiders have a three-point lead with seven plus minutes left in overtime so it's on justin herbert to figure out if he wants to play for the tie play for the win or just go home with a disappointing season let's stay in the nfc while that that possession changes you mentioned la rams let's talk about

them for a second i was the guy and many others who play fantasy are making this point cooper cup deserves some mvp votes i was claiming it i think week 18 made it even more obvious. That said, they don't look perfect either. They stumbled when they needed to be better. Derdy has the best playmakers in the playoffs if they can play as a unit. If they got hot, the Rams seem like the best team, not named the Packers, but I don't know if they're going to get hot. What do you think? Well, the problem is their quarterback

has never seen an arm punch he can't he doesn't want to throw like how do you trust stafford man second half of this game they're up 17 nothing 70 nothing go up 73 at halftime score seven points the second half in overtime stafford throws a game losing pick there's another terrible interception and the offense just went dead even with cooperupp making some great plays and you're right he has done a great job this year he went off as a player of the year he deserves all that um but you know they're just they're not trustworthy this year and they have a lot of good pieces right we talk about Cupp talk about Stafford can make some good throws. Akers was back. Andrew Whitworth at left tackle. Donald, Von Miller, Floyd, Ramsey.

But they just don't play with as much confidence. It's like their talent is on the roster, right? And they have times they look great and times they don't. The don't part of it really worries me, right? They're going to go on the road to Green Bay if they beat Arizona. Cold weather. I just don't see it, man. Yeah, I wanted to see it. I'm rooting for them to make it interesting here in my hometown, but I also don't see it.

The team that beat them, I have a feeling people on Monday and Tuesday are going to have to hear a lot of take makers suddenly red hot on the niners people love to love the niners okay jimmy g didn't crap the bed you know we know they got playmakers on defense devo samuel looks like the most exciting player in football in the last few weeks i don't know what the hell happened but he's suddenly the best guy out there he's incredible right yeah so people are people are gonna want to claim that they could make a run what do you think um well Gabe um they barely snuck in the playoffs so uh making a run doesn't seem very likely to me look they won a game today in about the most perfect way they could which is limit Jimmy Garoppolo's exposure right now Jimmy Garoppolo I could look this up I. Now, Jimmy Garoppolo, I could look this up, I would imagine, and we could find numbers on this. I feel like he plays much better

in the two-minute drive when he doesn't have to think, right? Like, just go throw the ball. That's right. And that's what he did. And the Raiders, I mean, the Chargers immediately first play this overtime drive.

Now they take the ball right down the field. There's a penalty, though. This might be coming back, it looks like. Oh, no. Oh, no, Chargers. Are you Charger-ing this?

Yep, they are. It's... Eligible man downfield. So might be coming back, it looks like. Oh, no. Oh, no, Chargers. Are you Charger-ing this? Yep, they are. It's an eligible man downfield. So first and 15 for the Chargers. Why do the Chargers have so many process fouls? Why is their line always involved in weird penalties? I really don't know why because this is a straight. Oh, it's an RPO.

That's why. That's on Herbert. So on a run pass option right we're blocking run and so we think the ball is going to be run and the quarterback doesn't throw the ball quick enough then we're downfield that's simple so you're you're just moving your guy downfield he's still holding it now he throws it now you're in you're an ineligible and downfield well Well, that's a pretty explained story. So that's a penalty on us, but it's really on the quarterback. On the quarterback. So the Niners, look, again, if they have this style of play where it's like, look, we're not going to have Jimmy G win or lose us the game. Obviously, he's got to win the game, and he did well in a two-minute drive.

But otherwise, he didn't play. The whole game, when they went from 17 to 20 points or 24 points to go, it was almost like no Jimmy G, right? It was short passes. It was run the football. It was control the line scrimmage. Their defensive line played outstanding. So there's a style they can win with,

but it's probably not sustainable enough to win a Super Bowl with, right, this year. They're not as talented as they were in 2019. But they can give the Cowboys a run in the first game. I don't think they're going to win that game. But I'm not concerned about the hottest team coming in because they weren't the hottest team two weeks ago or three weeks ago. They lost the Titans on the road.

You know what I mean? Like, it's just, I don't, this is hot. And they struggled with, you know, they had Trey Lance, obviously, against the Texans. But I just, I don't want to. Fair enough, man. obviously, against the Texans. But I just don't want that, man. Quick break in the action here. And after this play, we'll have our segue back to AFC topics. You just covered all the teams I wanted to talk about in the NFC.

And now the Chargers have a fourth and nine on their side of the field. This is the only hope to keep this game going, whether you're rooting for a tie or a win. So we'll watch this play from Herbert and then continue our show. Yep, fourth and nine. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. I'm not going to look at you, Gabe.

I'm not looking at you. I'm not looking at you because you're ahead of me, and you're saying, oh, my God. So it probably means the amount of fourth down conversions conversions tonight by the Chargers have been unbelievable. This is unreal. It's unreal. I can't wait until you get to react to what just happened. Oh, no.

So not only does Mike Williams make the play in the middle of the field and break free with room to run somehow, he only has enough room to run just to get them inside a field goal range so now the chargers are going to have a first and 10 at about the 27 yard line where we'll see how if they can move the ball or not but they're right in field goal range now which would lead to another tie score this is just the weird football gods intervening here and people in Pittsburgh are probably all having heart attacks. The funny part is I wrote this, I wrote this Fox sports article for like already with the Raiders winning this game. So I'm going to have to redo that one here in a second.

Well, Justin Herbert has just thrown for about 500 yards since we decided that he had lost the game. I mean, this has just been an unreal performance for him. You know, and even if they lose this game and miss the postseason, as a new Chargers fan, I can tell you, I am thrilled for the next decade with this guy. Jeff, they're going to be facing a third and six. Let me ask you something real quick. Sorry. Third and six, if they don't convert here, they're right at the edge of field goal range. It would be fourth and six. They usually go for it in that spot, but would they tonight?

They have to kick a field goal. Right. No, kick a field goal. Absolutely. Absolutely. The Chargers, so the Chiefs, you know, the Chargers worry me as a chiefs fan for obvious reasons because of number 10 but if it means that they get to play buffalo in the wild card round and be buffalo more priority to you right like they're you know like are you going to count them out in

buffalo absolutely not um so i'm not even gonna here. Third and six, you're a couple seconds ahead of me. Ball snapped. Here we go. Okay, so, fourth and six. Incomplete pass. Gotta kick the ball here. Steelers fans must be just... Where's Dave Damoshek at? Our boy Shek. If I were him, I would just put my phone

down and hide from all of this. I couldn't be typing right now if I were him or any Steelers fan. I won't react. I promise. Here comes the kick. No, you can't. I'm not looking at you. So I have another screen open and let's see here. Dustin Hopkins 0-1

today. Missed a 51-yard field goal. Here we go. This either sends the Raiders to the playoffs or this goes to OT and the raiders get the ball back and try to score oh we made it it's a tie game with four minutes left oh geez what a stupid sport god dang it what an amazing sport the city of pittsburgh we need just like a sanity check. There's no way that that place is surviving this. The Seahawks just needed someone to win this game tonight, and they're both trying to win.

That's the worst part. Like, both teams are trying to win. Oh, no question. Well, I mean, I don't even know what people are listening to right now with us, but with 4. 30 to go, the chargers will kick it away. So the charger, the Raiders can decide now how hard they want to work to move the ball down

the field. I mean, right now, Twitter is probably just nothing, but you know, Bain memes as Pittsburgh is just collapsing in front of our eyes. I like there, there,

there's no way to even explain what's happening right now. This is why the football is the greatest sport in the world. The Raiders here, well, here's the thing, though. If the Raiders don't try to score, the Chargers will just try to score, right? Are they just going to give up too? Are they both going to decide to give up? That's the thing, right? They both have to decide to do it at the same time.

It's not hard. It's, it's got to be, oh my God, the Steelers have got it. Can you imagine this? Like you win, you beat the Ravens in overtime

only to have this stupid fricking game be a tie. Yeah. Yeah. Every, every single thing that was supposed to happen happened until this moment and now but and yet Derek Carr is throwing it 17 yards through the air trying to move the ball across the field nobody apparently nobody told Derek Carr about this this uh situation he does not care no they're trying to win, man. That's unreal.

Oh, completed the pass. Okay, ball down the field. So next score wins. Next score wins. Yeah, once you've each had a shot at it, right? Someone tweeted out, there's no dishonor in just playing for a tie at this point. Both teams tried to win, not just go to playoffs. That's correct.

and just playing for a tie at this point. Both teams tried to win, not just go to playoffs. That's correct. Yeah, so, I mean, the Raiders seem like they'd rather get to a long field goal distance and just try to kick one to win it outright. That's the way that they seem like they're moving the ball. But when we get to a third and long, we'll see if they get a little more shy. Yeah, but if they get there, though, I mean, that's the thing. Both teams are exhausted.

The Raiders could just run the football. Both teams are so tired right now. If this game ends in a missed field goal, then it would be the greatest. I can't even imagine. Oh, man, this is incredible. If you guys are listening to this podcast, 38 minutes in so far,

and I hope no one edits it, so I hope it just continues to stream out as we're doing this. I mean, you guys love us. Thank you for listening. Please give us a rating if you're still listening. Give us a review. It's more of just a social experiment at this point.

If you are listening to this, you're riding the emotion with us, and you must have been watching this on Sundayay night oh face mask they call face mask on this the refs are staying involved i mean they're not they're not hiding they don't seem to mind making some big big calls that change the game um and face mac face mask does appear to be the call there so so jeff let's try to talk about the afc while this game concludes well but but they they they didn't call it though right i mean look the afc oh he oh no he didn't grab his face mask did he um the afc to me is is quite simple um oh he absolutely did that should be a face mask um is is if the Chiefs play to their ability,

which, again, this season has been up and down, they will win the Super Bowl. It's that simple. They're good enough to do all of that. Oh, my God, Derek Carr just completed a pass on third and eight. If they don't, which is what they continue to do each week, continue to make mistakes, self-inflicted wounds, special teams penalties turnovers just

blah play which is willing with their calling card this year so like you can't say they're just not gonna do it for a month but if they do that for a month they win the super bowl but there's no game two they're gonna do now they'll be pittsburgh if this if this holds the way well if this holds we'll see um if not they get the raiders i think they should beat the raiders so like they'll win the first round then they might get buffalo that'd be tough i wouldn't be surprised if can't if can't see lost any game by the way yep that's how i up and down they've been i will say though tennessee look they'll have to win two games man and if julio's back and aj brown's healthy and derrick henry. Got a little juice to them now, right? They rushed the passer a lot better, played a little better defense.

I could see Tennessee winning the AFC. Those are the two teams. Buffalo can too. Buffalo's going to have to go beat Tennessee on the road and Tennessee on the road. Feels hard to do, right? Feels hard to do. Yeah, and they didn't blow out the Jets today when they should have.

You know, they split with the Patriots. You know, they've lost some games they really shouldn't have lost. I've lost my faith in Buffalo. I was like, on this show at least, like constantly ribbing you about Josh Allen and the Bills and wanting them to be something that I just don't think they are. And so I think we kind of, where you said, it feels like it's the Chiefs to lose. The Titans could get hot at the right time and give them problems. Maybe there's really no other sleeper team, though, right?

Like either of these teams, as great as this game has been, they're just going to be drunk after this. Like they have no hope of making an impact in the playoffs. The Patriots, what a run. You know, I hate giving them any credit, but they get some credit. That was an amazing year out of a rookie quarterback. But they're not going to win any games in the postseason it's really those two teams i think buffalo can do it too it just would be tougher from the three seed all right like are you telling me the buffalo like yeah from the three seed it makes it much tougher um so the raiders ran the ball on first down it It's under two minutes now, a second down.

I mean, the Chargers aren't calling timeouts. Like, you got to run the ball here again and run it again and see what happens. If the Chargers don't call timeouts, just go to the tie. Dude, this is unbelievably incredible. Well, credit to the NBC. Oh, there's a Steelers fan in the crowd. Oh, there's a Steelers fan in the crowd. Oh no. Yeah. Credit to the NBC broadcast for finding the one Steelers fan who went to Vegas to watch this game and where is Steelers Jersey and the poor guy is having a panic attack in his stadium. Oh, the

Raiders are going, the Raiders are like, okay, I got to turn the volume up because I think Chris Collins was saying they should play for a tie and that's incredible. Well, I mean, he seemed like he was sworn not to. Earlier in the fourth quarter, he looked so unhappy to have to mention this possibility. Because we knew, you know, jokes aside, we knew the league was not really rooting for any scenario where there was a question of this. This is really happening right now. Yeah. Like, this is really happening. Like, they're really just going to, like, oh my God, they're going to do it.

Well, so it's, it's, where I am now, we're at third and four with a timeout. They're at the absolute edge of most people's field goal range. I mean, I wouldn't, I wouldn't think that anyone's thinking a makeable field goal from where they are. They're at about the 40. think that anyone's thinking a makeable field goal from where they are they're at about the 40 um so you're looking at almost a 60 yard field goal uh on a third and four play with less than a minute to go like the raiders absolutely have to run this ball and be done with it yeah you got i mean you got to take it down if you're going to kick it at all you got to take it down to one second right well the chargers call timeout so someone said to Alex say what the fuck

are you doing oh my god that's incredible third and four here 38 seconds left after timeout next score wins the game or they just go to just end in a tie he's running it oh he got a first down oh he's in field goal range oh no he's in field goal range. Oh, no. He's in field goal range. Oh, they're going to kick a field goal here. Jeff. Oh, my God. We've never had the opportunity to talk about this live. All year long, I've been saying cancel kickers.

We can't let games come down to kickers. Jeff, the entire season for multiple teams is going to come down to a kicker on a kick that shouldn't even be happening. Why do kickers exist, Jeff? This is the most incredible thing I've watched in so many years. Oh, my God. All right, so Daniel Carlson is going to come out and kick for the Raiders.

He's pretty good in these spots. Oh, my God. Who the hell knows why they felt the need to do it but they are going to kick for the win it's a bomb of a field goal and this will break my heart 47 yard attempt Jeff I will shut up and not react okay well I would imagine

Chargers call timeout here I don't know oh my god I can't believe this is two seconds left in the game 47 yards Raiders win they go to playoffs Raiders miss both teams go to playoffs I mean what an absolute disgrace they right down the middle the Chargers lose why the Chargers call time out the raiders just made justin herbert an enemy for 10 years i don't know why they didn't try to freeze the kicker but the raiders won the game the chargers are out the raiders are in the steelers can all sleep why did why did they call time out man it's

past midnight for them and they must there's no way they're getting to bed tonight but they just made justin herbert an enemy for 10 more years and that was a mistake but the raiders seem content to run the clock out why the chargers call time out on third down uh i don't know what i don't know what we just witnessed jeff there was just so much going on like i don't i don't get that okay so witnessed, Jeff. There was just so much going on. I don't get that. Okay, so there was about a 10-second difference from the game clock and the play clock. And the Raiders were under two minutes left, about the 40-yard line, and they were continuing to just let the clock run without fail.

They were not rushing. And beforehand, before the game, I don't know if it was Michel Tafari who ever said, we talked to Rich Passaccia, the head coach. Well, he's just we we talked to staley say he's playing for the win and they asked passaccia and passaccia's like yeah playing for the win but like he made like he kind of like left it open to to something else and he was clearly playing for the tie there like at the end and the chargers blew it just don't call time out i i don't know jeff i'm i'm here to get smarter from you i'm totally why why call time out i'll happily admit

it i am completely lost it doesn't help that i'm trying to talk to you about the whole league while we watch this game unfold but the the entirety of that game is a blur. And when people listen to this, if they listen to all of this, they are going to be just as confused as we are. So now with the Raiders in, and I can't imagine you could possibly feel any hotter than they do right now. Let's sort of do the same exercise with them in the fold. Does anything change? It's just the Chiefs and the Titans. And now, okay, so the Raiders and Steelers are in instead of the Chargers and Raiders or whatever. Like, they're all going to be the team that lose to the Titans and Chiefs, right? Probably, yeah. playoff bound and just had a record tying year. But some people want to put an asterisk on it.

So JJ Watt, who will get some MVP votes, I bet, ties Michael Strahan with 22 and a half sacks this season, most all time. But of course, the season has an extra game in it. So it doesn't seem fair to say that he really tied that record with a whole extra game to play, except, as many will point out, he missed a few games. So he actually only played in 15 games, so really the record is kind of even more incredible. Where do you come out on this? So he tied the record today. Look, records are made to be broken, and I'm fine with that.

He didn't play a full 17 games. Now you could argue that no you know, no one had, you know, back in the day, right. You didn't have that 17th game to get the sack. Fair enough. Like I'm fine with it,

but they're made to be broken. Like, why don't we just enjoy good things we see in the field instead of worrying about what records get broken, right? Gabe, like what's a very good player. Just give him the praise.

Like who cares? Although also to be fair, I'm not, I'm not good enough to ever win it. I don to ever be good enough to win awards or break awards. So I never had to worry about that as a player. But, like, we could celebrate TJ Watt. Great season. He's in the playoffs now.

Yeah. He had a great season. We're going to have to get used to adjusting this. Just like we did, you know, you're a huge baseball fan. We've gotten used to certain numbers and the meaning of certain things changing, right? Like more teams make the playoffs now. You know, pitchers get used differently than they did when we were growing up. Like the benchmarks for a great season statistically in baseball have changed a few times in our life.

And they're going to change in the NFL now. It wasn't that long ago, a little before our time, but it wasn't that ago the nfl played 14 games in a year you know like this stuff happens so the per season records are going to change tj had a hell of a game or a season excuse me let me ask you this why is he so good like i know he you know he's got the name i know he's a good player but why is he this dominant the last couple of years? His ability with his hands, like his sack today, the record sack, he beat the right tackle and the tight end with the same move. It was like he was on one of those bags at practice. He went rip, rip, right around.

It was incredible. So hands are an important part of it. Obviously, he has some speed. But is there something about where he plays within that defense? You know, is it what other guys on that line are doing? Like, why does he find himself right on top of the quarterback so often? There are other great players out there who don't get as many chances. It seems there's something about the way the Steelers have their defense set up that gives him opportunity. Um, well, obviously, you know, singling Hayward, like, I mean like i mean singling watt because you have

to worry about hayward and other pass rushers is very helpful right like there's other guys there so you can't just focus on tj watt but he's just good with his hands dude like he's good with his hands and i think because sewers dfx is so good you end up getting these third and long situations where you're able to rush the passer at a higher rate than anyone else's okay so everyone else doing their job makes him even better. Any shot Big Ben is rethinking retirement after they make a little playoff run here? No, I don't think so.

And maybe even if he's rethinking it, no one else in Pittsburgh is, right? Like they're probably wondering how much better they could be with a young quarterback. Yeah, I think they want a young quarterback. All right, fair enough. Let's take a quick break, come back, move the line very, very quickly

because obviously nothing we just talked about was scripted. We'll take a quick break, be right back after this. All right, Jeff, we're back. We're moving the line. We kept everything in from earlier. So people had to skip around maybe and listen through the chaos. Now let's get to some planned stuff that had nothing to do with Sunday night's crazy finish. Over under 85% chance the only reason Aaron Rodgers played on Sunday was to lock in his bonus money.

And I can walk you through it, but that's why he was out there, right? 100%, yeah. I mean, they didn't win. he didn't play the second half that obviously he prefers to win to lose but like he was out there to rack up to make sure that he had enough touchdowns to be top three because that's what he needed his incentive said if he was top three in touchdown passes he gets another i think it's 100 grand he barely got there Dak almost made it hard on him interception percentage he was already going to be fine there but he hit a couple others he put another two three hundred grand in his pocket today just by playing and playing pretty well

against a bad Lions team for a half I do wonder if there was some thought I got to go back to last year how they played coming out of the bye but but maybe there was a thought of like, let's just get, and I will tell you this. They want to play David Bokdary left tackle today to get him reps. He hasn't played all season. That might be one of the reasons why Rogers played now. Rogers kept playing when Bokdary went out, but I could see early in the game, just okay, the full offense is back. Let's get two or three drives, feel good about it, the playoffs he got hit a couple times too he also by the way top three in completion percentage just by a smidge today helped so there's another hundred grand right there so maybe it was a few reps with Bakhtiari but I think it probably was more what you just said uh he he wanted the extra money

um all right let's talk about Debo Samuel, who we mentioned earlier. I mean, he was unbelievable today and down the stretch. Hank, our producer, put in the most convoluted and crazy question comparing him to Nikhil Hari on the Patriots. I can't bring myself to ask that. So instead, I'm going to just on the fly ask you, over under 30 NFL teams who are saying in their war rooms, we got to draft ourselves a Debo Samuel this coming draft. There'll be some, but I mean, that's hard to draft a guy that can do that. But what is he? Because we see him line up in the backfield. We see him obviously as a receiver. We saw him today throw a ball pretty well. Like, what the hell is he? Because we see him line up in the backfield. We see him, obviously, as a receiver. We saw him today throw a ball pretty well. Like, what the hell is he? He is a do-all.

Like, he's their best running back and the best wide receiver. They've obviously found very – they've just found ways to use him very well. Like, if he plays in a different offense, he's not used the same way, Gabe. He's used that way because of what the Shanahan can do with play design. Are there other guys, I'm thinking of Tyreek Hill, who would play a similar role in an offense like that? Like guys who are just freakishly athletic the body type is right could could other guys do what he does to debo yeah sure but you have to be in the right offense

like 25 offense in the nfl aren't going to use him like this yeah okay well so like that's part of it right the the coaching helps well there's not many guys on earth who can do what he can do and you have to be in the right offense we're going to say very few other guys out there all right um over under 40 chance the jags trade out of the number one overall pick they did earn the pick today even though they won good on them for winning and making the indianapolis teams uh season a mess that chaos was hilarious but they somehow kept the number one pick for the second year in a row so um do you think they'll trade it they don't need a quarterback no mock drafts have the bam alignment as the number one pick they could probably use alignment no um you you need to um you just draft just get a stud so who are you

thinking like hutchinson or or your boy kt from oregon hutchinson k von tibideau evan neal like whoever you need just get get yourself a stud. No, you can trade now. If someone's going to offer you picks to go to one, sure, I think you would do that. I don't think they're looking to trade out, but if someone offers you, you should surely trade out if you get a good offer.

Trading back is almost always a win. Look at the teams this year that traded back. Giants have two first-round draft picks. Eagles have two first-round draft just have two first round draft picks trade well that's i think jamal adams trade trading back's not bad especially if you go back seven spots five spots you get an offensive tackle you get a pass rusher and you get another first round draft pick um but they shouldn't look to trade out unless someone i think wants to move up there okay fair enough um so vic fangio fired by the Broncos after losing today.

Not a great year. I don't know what really people were expecting from them. They started kind of hot, and I think that set him up for failure. But here's what I want to know. Over under 25% chance Denver lets Aaron Rodgers pick his own head coach to get him to try to come to Denver in the offseason after presumably he doesn't win the Super Bowl and his pouty all offseason. Well, they've got to choose a coach

before they figure out Rodgers, right? That's the problem. That's what I'm saying. What if they call up Rodgers? They're like, pick whoever you want. The Packers don't have to trade him. No, they don't. We've already covered that exhaustively

in every offseason for the last couple of years. But there were always these rumors about him going to Denver. Now there's no coach there. You'd think Aaron would want to say and who he's playing with. I don't know. Just thinking about it. Yeah, I mean, I think that'd be a tough sell. Okay, fair enough.

Well, he's going to complain about being in Green Bay, guaranteed. The second they lose, we're going to start hearing reports, our Aaron's not happy, blah, blah, blah. Get ready for a whole other offseason of that. We'll forget all about the COVID stuff. It'll just be that stuff again. All right, over under 99.9% chance the Manning cast curse is real. Yeah, so who'd it get now?

It got Aaron Rodgers. They had Rodgers on the oh yes yeah they did it and then he lost the next game which meant that every current player who went on this year lost in their next game that's that's the it exists i mean it's it's more real than the madden curse yes i don't know how they can reverse this i I don't know how Peyton and Eli are ever going to get their reputations back. This will haunt them forever. So, real quickly, before we get to... Because this is a long discussion right now.

Going back to the Raiders game. I know we're hopping all over the place. When you watch the end of that game... Now, the Raiders called that timeout. And Derek Carr said that it changed their philosophy and what they were going to do people are arguing about whether or not that meant they were going to run the football they were not you know going to pass the football um I thought the Raiders were okay with a tie that's what they look like on the field did you feel the same way too like they were nonchalant they weren't really going

hard like I got to run the football, fourth down, and just run out. It looked like they were going inside with Jacobs, but he actually broke through a few. It looked like everyone was expecting each other to fall down, and he did what we see every now and then in those late game situations where actually the running back

is not supposed to score, but he does anyway. It kind of looked like that. Yeah, maybe. I thought they were content with a tie. Like, I just, it was weird, man. It was a weird ending. I love it. I love this game. Oh, it's the best.

Well, you're so caught up in it that it's a good segue to our last question, which is what is over under 10% chance you realized Klay Thompson finally came back to the NBA on Sunday? Oh, I saw it today. He had 900 and something days. How crazy was that?

And he played well tonight too, right? Yeah, and I mean, the Warriors look like they might have the whole team, the whole gang back together and another championship run in them. Will you, uh, will you bet against, uh, LeBron and, and take the Warriors this, uh, this season? Um, well, I will take the Warriors. Yes. Okay. I don't bet against LeBron. He's like my Brady. I just don't bet against him. It doesn't pay. Yeah, I mean, Lakers aren't very good right now, though.

I'd have to see what they look like in four months. They aren't very good, but when they play LeBron at the five, suddenly you realize, oh, they're pretty good. And when they play small lineups, they'll actually be pretty good. All right, Jeff, it was a hell of a regular season. I learned a lot from you. We've got plenty more to cover. We're doing our shows in reverse this week so we're doing the nfl show first we're going to do the college show after the monday night's

national championship we already know alabama's going to win that by three scores but what the hell we'll talk about it anyway uh and you're betting on thursday with matt and we're covering the nfl all through the postseason so plenty more chances to talk about all these teams. 100% agree, and we will talk so much about the playoffs. We finished strong. We finished 6-1. We finished at 500. I love it.

Good job, Raiders. And yeah, what a ride tonight, dude. Whew. Fun episode. Hope you guys follow along. Rate, review, subscribe. We're powered by the Varsity Podcast Network and it is 12.30am on the East Coast

I gotta be up in 6 hours my kids will be awake have a good night everyone have a good morning and talk to you guys tomorrow