Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Week 11 Reactions and NFL Week 12 Best Bets

Episode Date: November 22, 2024

Geoff is back with another episode of Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. On today's show, Geoff and Matt recap week 11 of the NFL. Plus, a look ahead into week 12 of the NFL with Geoff's Best Bets.Be sure to follow the pod to get notified when a new episode drops each week, and follow @GeoffSchwartz on Twitter/X for more NFL and CFB comments. Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You will be live streamed on Twitter/X and YouTube every Friday all season long.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Friday, November 22nd. I am Jeff Schwartz. That is Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smart. You are sponsored by Greg Morris Cards. Week two, they're back for more, Matt. We have a QR code if you're watching this on YouTube or on Twitter, on any social media platform.

We have a QR code for you guys. Just give me the QR code. Takes you to Greg Morris Cards. We'll talk about them a little bit later as well and throughout the show, Matt. And we got some good luck because Greg joined the show. And we had been a little bit down with our wagers, Matt. As we do every Friday, we'll give you all five wagers for the weekend. We went through in two last weekend.

And it is so different betting on college football than the NFL. Because college football, it's a win or a loss, no sweat. You either win or you lose for the most part. Every NFL game is the worst experience of my life wager on them. We had the Steelers who kicked six field goals to cover for us. Yes. Chargers who up 27 to six and needed some shenanigans to get home. If we had,

if you had the Chargers last night, by the way, and the Brown Steelers, I hate the under mat. I'd under 39. It closed 36 and a half. There were 16 points scored in the first three quarters. There were 27 points scored in the fourth quarter, Matt,

in a blizzard to go over. So the NFL, tough to gamble on. What's not tough is having Greg Morris cards as part of our show. There's the QR code, so go scan that. We'll talk about them more in a little bit, Matt. How was your weekend? It hopefully was as good as our wagers. Yeah, man. I would say it was was as good as our wagers. Yeah, man.

I would say it was about as, as good as our wagers, as you can probably tell from my voice. Kid is sick. I'm a little sick. Welcome. Welcome to the party, buddy. It's just been, say I'm with our producer can tell you, it's just like every week I'm like, Hey, I need a sick day. Like I'm sick again.

Like it's, you know, it was like a week that we had a few days where we were good and now we're back. How often is Gabe in the office? You can take a day off. Yeah, well, his kids are six and three or four now. So yeah, he's through that. You're through that. I'm in the middle of it.

So apologies for how my voice sounds. But excited to be here. Maybe we start with last night's game. It turned out to be a classic game. I think if we had taped the podcast before that, we certainly would have been on the right side, right? We loved Cleveland plus three and a half. Oh, absolutely.

What'd you take away from last night? The voodoo magic of the Steelers ended for one night. I mean, they weren't better for three quarters, then played better in the fourth quarter, but ended up losing the game anyway. They were due for a loss like this, I feel like, right? I mean, they're just, man, they're so, they're just, every game is the same for the Steelers.

And every Steelers fan told you, if you follow them on social media, they're going to lose that game. Like, everyone knew they were going to lose that game. Not a great spot to be in when you're a team as good as Pittsburgh, and it's like, yep, we're going to lose that game, Matt. The Browns can win any game because they have good football players. They just don't. I mean, every game we're on them, they lose. Every time we're not on them, they win.

It's very frustrating. But I took a Browns over three and a half, which I think I told you guys on over three and a half wins a couple of weeks ago. I need one more win to cash that. So I feel good about that. I'm going to lose some of my steelers futures it is what it is i thought they'd be they'd be poor this year any takeaway for you from this game yeah i think uh i first for whatever reason i feel like it's just so easy to track the steelers as better like that was just a classic short week they've been hot the road favorites favorites. It's the AFC North. There's, you know, the weather was a surprise,

but it was just a classic to take the other side of the Steelers game. I did think that I was impressed with Cleveland's just like dedication from their fans to their, their team, not giving up, even though they're two and eight, they couldn't give her that game away a couple of times, but they did. So,

you know, respect to them, respect to their coaching staff for for running through the tape you know you know what a mostly lost season yeah uh what was the rivalry game short week as well tomlin by the way is really really bad and on short weeks which is kind of was kind of crazy um that it's good to coach he is he's not good um in in those moments right matt six teams on a bible oh go ahead do you have more there's one more piece of news we have to talk about which is daniel jones getting released today and you actually weighed in on a on a twitter conversation that i should have pulled up and i didn't but was an interesting one which is i tweet this as well so i'm in the

same boat yeah so i'm i'm curious i mean it seems like i mean the release was a bit of a surprise to at least to the fans i i don't think it was that surprising given that he was playing safety in the scout team two days ago. That by the way, very quickly during walkthrough, which is what the media sees this time of year, the backups play scout team. That's not like a big newsworthy thing,

but that happens all the time. Just FYI, like out of all the things daniel jones that's like the least newsworthy thing but okay so continue so i make that okay well that's interesting because that's uh that got a lot of pop i wonder if that was sort of somebody leaking that to sort of precipitate the news but i mean they're the i kind of i mean maybe it's because every time he played my team he seemed to beat them but like i don't think this guy is totally washed. And I feel like, you know, we saw it happen with Sam Darnold. See, we saw what James Winston last night. Like maybe if he goes to the

right situation, he could potentially revive his career. It's are you on the same boat as me there? No, I'm not. Um, I'm of the opinion. Well, also to the people that I think have terrible football prediction minds that always get things wrong or like yep next Baker Mayfield I'm like you think you've said every quarterback is good and that quarterback ends up being bad so I don't trust your opinion on this anymore so like that's part of it's like the same people that are always they do this every year this guy there's only one Baker Mayfield only one sort of ryan tannahill one gino smith like it happens every couple of years it's not dan jones in my opinion we're doing it right now with sam darnold like he's the guy in this moment who is that guy right now so i don't think it's

daniel jones um the question is what does he do right does he does he go to a contender which is what i would do and sit and sit behind josh allen and lamar jackson like somewhere that has a chance to win and suck up all the information with a good offense. And then hope you get in week 18, you know, like, or you get a blowout and you get a driver to here and there,

I would not go play for Dallas or go play for the Raiders. I wouldn't do any of those things. No, no, it would be funny if he signed with Dallas. I was, if he signs with Dallas and plays on Thanksgiving, you remember an anchorman when Rick,

or they're, they're doing the gang war and they look over and Brick is on the other side laughing with the wrong team. And everyone's like, get back over here. That's what I thought of when Daniel Stevens was going to leave. It's funny, again, I thought of my team. I thought maybe he's a good backup for Jaden Daniels potentially. But Mariota's there though. Yeah, but Mariota, I mean, sorry. Mariota's your guy but i mean with respect to mario could be it could be a nice system for him i feel like being a backup

on a decent team you know buffalo's a good one i don't think this i don't think i don't think he's better than mario this year wow dang that is that is uh damning damning mario like had multiple years in the playoffs didn't he like like so did janiel jones didn't he did one year in the playoffs one playoff you won a playoff game that cost me a lot of money i remember it well really you took the vikings in that game yeah daniel jones in the playoffs what are we doing her cousin in the playoffs what are we doing yeah um all right matt so six teams on a buy one game already down This is a week that we're going to have a lot of discussion because there are seven road favorites and multiple road favorites by over a field goal. And we can't bet on all of them because like the Raiders are unwagerable. We're not betting on the wagers. I don't care what you say. We're not taking the Raiders at home this weekend. I don't care what argument you have. I'm fine with this okay let's save time so we're gonna take some road favorites I have a

feeling I don't know which ones yeah and that's gonna be the fun debate because I there's a couple home favorites uh home dogs we like already um so let's start it off let's see how we get to our five wagers for this weekend I so wish we could have taken the Browns, but we didn't. So let's start with the game you're going to, if I'm not mistaken. The Kansas City Chiefs at the Carolina Panthers. We're seeing 10 and a half now pretty much everywhere for the Chiefs on the road. Is this going to be one of our five? I'm not going to sit in the stands hoping the Panthers cover this game.

I'll tell you that. i think if the chiefs fair enough dude if the chiefs won this game one last weekend this would be a panthers play i think you have to play like even on the money line but since they lost i feel less comfortable with that matt um how about this story you'll appreciate this you've got you met my kids one time. So you know what they're like. I talk about it a lot. So I'm going with just my son this weekend. And I told them we're getting sideline passes, which we are. Thank you, Trey Smith, for hooking that up.

Nice. And I told them that, like, I know Taylor Swift's boyfriend. That's how Travis Kelsey goes by in our family. Because my daughter says all the time, like, where's Taylor Swift's boyfriend? We watch watch Chiefs games I point out 87 okay so that's that's Travis across the bear I think he's okay with that so I said to them hey guys I mean I know Travis Kelsey I know Taylor's boyfriend he might come over and say hi to me they were flabbergasted like absolutely flabbergasted that I might know Travis Kelsey I played with Travis for a year. No, we're not best friends.

I don't text him and talk to him. But he played with my brother for five years. I've seen him out at certain things. We talk. We say hi. Not like we have a 10-minute conversation, Matt, but like we're acquaintances. I like him. I think he likes my family.

He likes my brother. He likes me. And so we might say hi to each other. And my daughter is like,'s he gonna call you they go oh schwartz schwartzy like i don't she's like wait why not jeff i go everyone calls me schwartz i don't even tell you i was called for a locker room since i was in high school um my son did say he's gonna think you're fatter now than you were when you played i said thanks thank you son for that um but uh so yeah i'm gonna amazing story uh this is going to be a big dad win for me if i can get huge dad if i get a photo with my son and travis kelsey

so we'll see how it goes on sunday i gotta be honest jeff i don't feel like we have talked a lot about your relationship with travis kelsey like on this show like he's become this massively famous person i don't really know. I mean, I played a year with him when I see him, which hasn't been like three years, two years. Like we say hi to each other for, you know, how you doing? Like what's like two, three minutes. That's it.

It's not like we have like a great relationship. I've seen Jason more than him recently at events and stuff like in Superbowl stuff. But like, yeah, I played with Travis for a year and my brother played with him for five seasons. I mean, yeah, it's, it's, it's also like a small fraternity, right? Like people know each other. I saw Jason at a donut shop down the street a few, few weeks ago. Did you see the late night show that they announced he's doing?

Yeah. Good for him. That'll be interesting. I'm I'm it's interesting. Cause I'm, I'm interested in that. I'm curious. I like Jason a lot. That's a different task, like job than doing the podcast and being on live. So hopefully he's got good producers. They're very important. We know he has a good agent. Let's give that person a shout out.

Oh, yeah. Oh, do you know his agent? Is that a friend of yours? No, no, I don't. But they're doing very well. I hope it's someone that... You're looking at us. Yeah, I'm going to look it up.

But nonetheless, so no Panthers in this game. Yeah, pass. Clarity, I think this is NFL agent. Clarity Sports, I've never heard of them before. Good for them. Jason Bernstein. clarity well this is this i think this is nfl agent clarity sports i've never heard of that before good for that jason bernstein well shout out to shout out to the jason duo uh for for giving jason kelsey a really nice post-playing career um all right no no panthers uh who do you think covers just curious i mean probably the panthers yeah i think so too. It's a tough week for the Chiefs. Like this is a tough team to go against after your first loss. It's on the road.

It won't be very bit, you know, packed there. A lot of Chiefs fans up there though. Yeah, probably. At least three of them. All right. Vikings at Bears. An interesting game here. The Bears are three and a half point home dogs.

The Vikings are a really interesting team. I feel like we keep like we made some money on them last week. We lost money on them the week before. I don't really know where I stand on this team, but I do have a lean in this game. I'm curious if you do. Okay, so

third straight road game for the Vikings. Matt, they have almost progressively gotten worse on offense with the mistakes they keep making. And Darnold is making those mistakes at a high level now. It's sort of getting back to what Sam Darnold is. The Bears were a little bit better last week. I think they used Caleb Williams' legs.

They absolutely don't know how to finish games because they have a terrible head coach. I mean, it's got to be Bears or nothing, right? I mean, I just, I don't know how else else to play this i don't feel great about it but we have to put it as a maybe i'm not sure there's many picks we're going to lock in immediately when we talk about these games but the bears have to be a maybe i think yeah i think so i mean i the bears uh are actually pretty good in the nfc north uh four and one in their last five in the division,

which is surprising given how good that division is. You know, I think Caleb looked a lot better. Like you said, different offensive coordinator, freedom up. He seemed to just be a little bit more comfortable. Like the ball is getting out quicker.

He was, he was running. I don't know if this is basically playing the number. Again, you mentioned the schedule quirk with Minnesota. This is sort of sad at three all week. I guess that somebody came in and pounded the Vikings and moved it closer in the Bears direction.

I don't mind getting the hook here. We're getting a good number. It's also the Bears after a crushing loss last week and a crushing loss last week and a crushing loss a few weeks ago. Like, they're a tough team to bet on, but I think we have to consider it. Yeah.

Again, I think they're in the firm maybe category. Yeah. All right. Well, here's one that, oh, God, maybe it will be in the maybe category. The Cowboys, plus 11, actually actually now at the washington commanders uh don't love the commanders laying double digits right now but don't love the cowboys either what do you think so i like brian robinson over his rushing prop of 72 and a half that's allow a ton a ton of now the only problem is you know if he gets 12 carries because they're – like Saquon did against the Cowboys

because they're winning by so much. Look, I've just – I took the Eagles and I took the Texans just blindly the last two games against Dallas. I didn't care that they were later than seven. Eleven's a little different for a commander's team that, you know, hasn't played as well the last couple weeks, Matt. I think this is just a stay-away game. I'm not taking them to Dallas either. I think this is just a stay-away game. I'm not taking him to Dallas either.

So I think it's a stay-away. Bet Eckler's number, I think it's a little bit high for backup. It's 24 and a half. Jaden Daniels rushes. I would bet all the rushing props I can in this game. Yeah. I think Washington is going to come out smoking hot. They finally got a bit of a break.

Jaden should hopefully be a little bit healthier. I think they're going to make a little bit of a statement early and then kind of just got a bit of a break. Jaden should hopefully be a little bit healthier. I think they're going to make a little bit of a statement early and then, you know, kind of just coast the rest of the game. So I don't know if they close, if they, if they, uh,

win by more than 11, but I don't know. You can't really take a side of this one. Uh, all right. Next game, the Patriots at the dolphins, the dolphins playing seven.

This is a real test for the Drake Maytruthers out there who are saying this guy is like... Boston fans are out of their minds on this guy. He looks pretty good. He's playing better than I think people thought because he started slow in training camp. Yeah, that's right. And he came in a little bit late,

but he's the third best rookie quarterback right now at best. So congratulations. Okay, well, who's fourth, by the way? It's Caleb Williams, right? I quarterback right now at best. So congratulations. Okay. Well, who's, who's fourth, by the way, it's Caleb Williams, right? I think for now. Yeah. I don't think I would have switched. I don't know.

I think they would have gone on the same order. I think Nick's just, I think so too. I just think Nick's Nick's Nick's a good situation. Daniel has a special talent. Drake may just has no one around him. So the bar is a little bit lower. Caleb Williams has, has everything around him that's why the bar is so high yeah right yeah exactly and right everyone was like he's no one's ever been drafted in a better situation it's like it's hard to be a quarterback and he's still mad at iberflues um okay so back

to the dolphins here and the patriots i mean what do you do here like the the patriots suck in miami they have forever. The Dolphins are, this is their second straight week where they're huge favorites, despite being terrible. I, it's like, I guess you would take New England, but I don't, I don't love that. Well, the Dolphins are actually, since two has been back,

they're scoring like touchdowns on an insane amount of drives, Matt. Oh boy. I mean, I would lean dolphins but i mean i i just no i i don't know i guess i that no is the right answer just nothing i don't know what i i can't i just can't do the dolphins here i don't think but i also i the patriots in this spot this this feels like 34 10 it's like well now drake may comes back down to your type of game yeah i think so too um i i don't know man i guess if if my if miami's like our fifth i guess i would consider it but it's not it's it's very dicey i mean the one thing that new england is potentially good at

is you know their secondary so that i don't know this this just screams stay away to me i feel like one side is this one's gonna look very obvious like by the second quarter i think and it's either be a dolphins blowout or the patriots are up like you know yeah one three yeah we had a um i had the raiders last weekend just on my own oh my god jeez i mean they were in it and then they just then they just weren't it's so frustrating they're a dead team man they're they're in really rough shape uh speaking of rough shape the tennessee titans at the texans titans plus eight and a half jeff i think i i mean if we're taking a side we're holding our

nose and we're taking tennessee here i know we. It's got to be a maybe, doesn't it? I think it has to be. Tennessee. 8.5 now? Jeez. Eight and a half. Tennessee, one and nine against the spread this year. Unbelievable.

Like, this is a historic start to the season. Like, the other two worst teams against the spread, one of them is Dallas. And I forget who the other is. It's another, like, very public team. It might be Kansas City. But, like, that's not how this is supposed to work. You're supposed to be around 500. The Jets are 3-8.

So the two most disappointing teams in Tennessee is actually worse than them. I don't mind Tennessee here. Houston's looked really shaky lately. They're not great as favorites. It's like at some point, this just gonna have to reverse even though you know we'd have to play will levis yeah i know will levis has been i thought we we wrote off the titans there's no more titans matt um all right well let's put it up in the maybe you only got two maybes right now buddy we don't got a lot to work with.

No, it's, I know we have, is Miami in our maybes or are we, or not? I think no, but we can put it, I mean, just cause we. They're our soft maybes. Soft maybes. Our softest maybes. Softest maybes. Uh, all right. I think we're going to get there on this one.

The Lions are seven and a half point favorites in Indy. Uh, I think this is one where we're gonna have to take yeah i put it i put it in the uh in the yes category already um all right so i guess the the thought is here matt um you got a freight train with the lions they're playing so well right now uh we say this every, like there's no way they can keep this up. I mean, yeah, no, you're right. There shouldn't be a way. And they keep doing it, right? Which is kind of wild.

But they've lost like half their defensive starters down to injury, Matt. Eventually that has to play a role, right? Eventually it does have to play a role. And I am concerned about that on the road against the Colts. Anthony Richardson is high variance, right? Really high, really low.

But he provides the offense a spark that you don't get with Joe Flacco. So he gives you a little bit more juice. We get the hook here at 7.5. I have a feeling this number comes down before kickoff. It's going to be a favorite sharp play for everyone. We took the Colts, remember this season, when the Steelers were 3-0 and we liked them in that spot. The Colts ended up winning that game.

The Colts have covered two games. You take them at home. Houston week one, and I think it was week four with Pittsburgh. I'll go back to well here. Give me Colts plus 7.5. Look, it's hard to jump in front of that in that freight train,

but it has to be the week to do it. Yeah, it is. This is a game between the two best teams against the spread this week, the Lions and the Colts. The Colts, other than the Bills game, where they lost at home by 10, noteworthy potentially,

every other game that they've played has been a one possession game. They lost to the Vikings by eight, but everything else was, you know, they beat the Steelers by three, they lost to the Jags by three, they beat Titans by three, Dol everything else was, you know, they, they beat the Steelers by three. They lost the Jags by three. They beat Titans by three dolphins by six. Like every game is close. Every game is a little bit strange. You know, it's also like the lions are this really, you know, incredible team that runs through the tape. I'm not sure that after last week, they're going to

be like super up for winning by 50 again. Maybe they will be. But I think this is one where you just say, okay, we'll see. We'll take our chances. I agree. So let's take the Colts plus 7.5. All right, let's do it. All right, moving on to the Buccaneers against Tommy DeVito's Giants.

The Bucs are six-point road favorites off of the bye in new york man this one this one feels like russian roulette dude because it's like on one hand the bucks have a have a ton to play for uh but i i'm just not sure what's going to happen with this new quarterback shift all right so i like the bucks in this game game, Matt. Okay, talk to me. And here's the reason why. So, first of all, there's no Tommy DeVito bump, okay? Like, there's no bump. He's not good, okay?

And now Malik Nabors didn't practice today. So, we're going to have Malik Nabors. Their offensive line we know is not very good. They can run the football okay, but against Tampa's defense, is that really what you want to do, just run the football all day? On the other side, Tampa Bay has lost four in a row okay the four they lost were the Ravens by 10 they lost to the Falcons by less than a score the Chiefs by less than a score the Niners by less than a score so four really tough games Matt against four playoff caliber teams right

Niners I don't know what know, but a good football team. Niners are off a buy in that game. And we talked about, we took the Niners in that game because of the reasons, short week, all those things. The other Tampa Bay gets a break, a buy. They come back and play a bad Giants football team on the road. They haven't played a bad team in months, Matt. Mike Evans, probably the back for them,

that boosts their offense a little bit. Yeah, they have a left tackle problem. I think Worf's is out. That does worry me. But out of all the road favorites, Matt, this weekend, this is the one I like the most. When Tommy DeVito was 3-3 last year, the three games he won,

the Giants had their best defense output all season. The Giants, to me, just aren't a very talented team. Tampa needs this win, and I like good teams off of by, man. Like, they're going to be refreshed. They're going to feel, you know, again, a must-win situation. So I like Tampa minus six here. It's the one road favorite I like to cover this weekend.

Yeah, Giants off of by two for what that's worth, which is probably nothing. Baker Mayfield, oddly, he's been a six-point or more road favorite two other times. Both of them were games at the Meadowlands, at Jets and at Giants. He split them. He won the Giants game and covered. That's just kind of strange.

Look, the Giants seem to be packing it in a little bit, and I think this Daniels, the way they handled this Daniel Jones thing, they could have had the chance to play Drew Locke. They didn't because of some quirks in his contract. From my understanding of the situation, I don't know if you have any more color there. Well, a good buddy, Chris Foyka, doing the Bear Bets podcast, said the Giants went with Tommy DeVito because the fans like him.

If you're going to lose, at least have someone the fans like playing quarterback. That's an interesting take. So I think they know what's going on here. I think that the Bill Belichick phone call has already been made for the next season. And Malik Nabors, it's like, why play this guy in a lost season? So all those reasons, the Bucs have a lot to play for. The Falcons are terrible. I feel like they have a chance to sneak up a game on them here. So I don't mind this one. I hadn't circled this one, but now that we've talked about it, it makes a lot to play for the falcons are terrible i feel like they have a chance to sneak up a game on them here so i don't mind this one i hadn't circled this one but now that we've talked about

it it makes a lot of sense this is the one that i just i just i like as a road favorite yeah i'm also wondering if we could find a five and a half anywhere i feel like we probably could oh there's a fan duel five and a half jeff okay we'll say five and a half i actually think that this number will be better on kickoff than it is today on Friday. That's my take. But again, I mean, 5.5 is better than 6, obviously. Between 5.5 and like 4, it's really not that valuable, right? We'll take it, dude.

I'll take the half a point. We need everything we can get. I'll take the half a point there as well. All right, Matt. Josh Schwartz is smarter than you. It's sponsored by our friends at Greg Morris cards. We talked about it earlier, put that QR code back on the screen.

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And I looked some of them up and they're actually, they seem to be kind of worth something. So I'm going to do a little bit of a guess of what I think they're worth and then shoot them over to Greg Morris. And they basically said, you know, their thing that they're really good at is they can get the most for what you've got.

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I think they're going to be able to find you a deal that you probably couldn't get anywhere else. I was curious if you had like any like old Washington Wizards cards when you were a kid. Any old, any Orioles and and Cal Ripken Jr. card laying around or something yeah I don't know if I'd ever part with those Cal Ripken Cal Ripken is like my he's like in this very tucked away corner of my heart is like the first true athlete I ever loved but I definitely do I mean I don't it sounds like you weren't you weren't into that maybe because you were actually like you had promised as a real athlete but at the time i have i have tons man i have tons at my mom's house in delaware uh that i hope to get at some point and see if there's anything valuable in there because you that's how it works

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We went three and two there. We went to Camden Yards. I've been there one time, well, a couple times. One time we bought tickets for a game from a guy in a wheelchair in a back alley behind in baltimore which this is like 94 95 i'm not sure that's like the best way to do it uh my cousin my uncle lived in ashburn and we drove down with the orioles game um and then the savannah bananas are coming to baltimore i think we got tickets for that so we're gonna see the Savannah Bananas in Baltimore at some point.

I think it's this summer at some point. So head back up to Baltimore to see that. It's a great stadium. It's fantastic. I've been there. I'm not kidding. I'm not kidding. Back alley, guy in a wheelchair.

We bought two tickets from. That's Baltimore, baby. Yeah. Okay. Next game up, buddy. Let's do it. All right. We're into the late window on sunday uh broncos are at the raiders no okay time saver there uh broncos are six point

favorites no i mean the raiders is the play i'm just i'm i'm gonna do it no no we can't do it yeah the pro next train is we're not gonna get we're not gonna get five are we yeah no we are there's still there's actually three i like are still coming oh okay including one of them right here uh the 49ers are three point dogs at green bay oh who do you like go ahead i like the niners dude i think this is this is uh did you know this is the first regular season game of brock purdy's career where he's not the favorite brock purdy's a little bit hurt right now though but that is the craziest stat I've ever heard, no? Yeah, I know. That's just an unbelievable stat.

I think that the 49ers, they come... I think they're such a top-heavy team. It's a reason that I always feel like I fade them in the preseason. First of all, they really need this one to keep up with Arizona. They basically have no shot at the wild card unless they win this game. But either way, they need to keep pace in their own division I think the 49ers come down to Kittle and Bosa in a lot of ways because Bosa obviously like you know that doesn't take a genius to figure out what he does on the defense but Kittle like I just feel like their running game is really different without him I feel like their receiving game is really different without him I think think their overall toughness is really different without him. And he was out last

week. He said he's playing this week. Bosa is still, you know, TBD as of the time we're recording this. I think they're a tough matchup for Green Bay who has had some really strange games this year that win last week. If they had lost last week, I think the Niners would be favored here. But they but they didn't because of a block kick and the various experiences of the Matt Eberflus extravaganza. So it worries me a bit that everybody seems to be with me and all of the bets and all of the money are on the Niners. But I kind of like them here. I like Shanahan

as a dog traditionally. I like Shanahan as a dog. Traditionally. I like them against this team that in the regular season, at least I think Shanahan is either three and one or three, you know, against them in the regular season. And that's three, three, you know,

in the playoffs, actually I have that one in three in the regular season. So I don't know. I just, I think this is a good spot for the Niners in a, in a really critical game for them. What about party being hurt? Does that worry you?

Honestly, if he has to do less and if they're able to reach the ball, that helps. But I don't know. I'm surprised you went here. Okay. Jordan Love, 4-7 is a favorite. The Packers, by the way, have sort of been living on the edge, right? Their last three wins have been a field goal to beat the Texans. Jacksonville made that furious comeback, if you remember.

And then they kicked a game-winning field goal. And then they barely just had a field goal block. Those are the last three wins for the Packers. Yeah, they have had really fluky wins. And the Niners have had really fluky losses, like the Cardinals game where Jake Moody got hurt. Yeah. have had really fluky losses like okay the cardinals game where jake moody got hurt yeah um you know the couple other just that strange game where they they gave up that comeback to uh to arizona um i don't know i the only the only issue i think is that you know purdy's injury and just like the 49ers are so up and down but i i think they can get it done here okay we'll put

it down i don't expect us to go in that direction but we'll put it down. I did not expect it to go in that direction, but we'll put it down. Okay. All right. Well, if I talk to you into it, that's usually not a great sign, but we'll see. NFC West rivals Cardinals at Seahawks. Let's call this a pick. You can get plus one on either side.

Which way are you leaning here? I like Seattle in this one, Matt. Okay. Arizona doesn't rush the passer. They don't hit the quarterback. And against Seattle, I think that's a really bad matchup for you, right? Gino Smith can throw the football. We know that.

Their offensive line, I believe, is getting a little bit healthier, a little bit better. And that was a big win for them last week. That's a confident boosting win against the Niners in the way they won that game. And Arizona, look, they've done a great job, Matt. They absolutely have. This game is outside, though, in the Pacific Northwest in November.

Weather becomes a concern in a lot of these games. I don't think it's supposed to be wet and rainy, but it wouldn't surprise me if it did rain because it rains every day in the Pacific Northwest between now and the end of March. I live there. I know what it's like there. And the thing about Arizona, again, I go back to this, like defensively,

what are they defensively? I don't know. Offensively, it's sort of like just like they have a fun run game. Kyler Murray is incredible. There's some really fun things. But that win for Seattle last weekend was big for confidence, man. So I'm okay with Seattle here. Just want to pick them.

I like this play. Yeah. just on a pick them. I like this play. Yeah, I mean, Kyler, oddly, in his, so he's covered three straight games against the NFC West, but before that he was one in, the Cardinals were one in 13

against the spread in their previous 14, which is crazy. He's had more success against the Niners than he has the Seahawks and Rams. Four, two and one against the Niners, five, 12 and one against the Seahawks and Rams. 4-2-1 against the Niners. 5-12-1 against the Seahawks and Rams. All the trends dictate taking Seattle here. Cardinals off of a bye have not been good with Kyler.

He's 5-9 against the spread with extended rest. He's 1-4 straight after a bye. So all those reasons tell you, hey, probably take Seattle. I mean, I think these two teams... See, every week there's a team where everyone's like, sure, yeah, I guess they're good now. I feel like that team is Arizona right now,

where everyone's just sort of talked themselves into them winning the division. They're the favorite to do so. They're not a great team. They've put some nice wins together. I think they're a pleasant surprise, but I think they're about even,

and you're basically saying that the Cardinals are two or two and a half points better. So let's put Seattle in. I like that one. And we can get plus one. Plus one. Let's take it. Okay. Seattle plus one. I got it right here. I wrote it down. Seattle plus one. Done. Two more games. Sunday night football here in Los

Angeles. The Rams are two and a half or three point dogs to the Eagles. I mean, what do you do with this? Um, so a lot of smart people I know are on the Eagles this weekend. Yeah. And I, I, I don't like it. I don't. I don't like it at all.

It'll be Eagles home game, certainly. I kind of want nothing to do with this game. I'm not going to lie. I don't want the Rams. Okay, let's talk this through. Why are people on the Eagles in this game minus three? Because they look good. I mean, they look better, obviously. Why are people on the Eagles in this game minus three? Because they look good. I mean, they look better, obviously.

They run the football really well. I mean, they're playing good football. It wouldn't surprise me if they ended up in the NCAA championship game. They're playing good football, obviously. But I feel like people are dismissing the Rams a little bit. The Rams have a lot to play for still. They're still in the NFC West. They went to New England in sort of a spot where traditionally you don't sort of win in cover,

and they won in covered in that game. They've won four or five. I'm surprised people are so heavy in the Eagles. I mean, the Eagles are really good. They're just a really tough team, and when they're rolling, they are unstoppable. When you figure out a way to slow them down they seem to self-combust but they're like those ravens teams in years past where it's like if they're up by 10 you have no chance like they're one of those teams where it's like if the snowball's going downhill you are absolutely cooked um i think people like this because you know they have a little extra rest i think people are still

a little bit skeptical of the rams because they have a little extra rest. I think people are still a little bit skeptical of the Rams because they have such a young defense. And the Eagles have all these huge names. The Eagles are 8-2. They're a damn good team. They've beaten the hell out of some really good teams. I don't know. I think I would be on the Rams, too, at plus 3 if we can find that,

which I think we can. I'm sure we can, yeah. But I don't know. I think I would be on the Rams too at plus three, if we can find that, which I think we can, but I don't love it. And there's something about it that just feels a little bit, a little bit shaky to me. Yeah. I'm with you. All right. All right.

So we're going to pass on that one. I think we have one, two, three, four, five, six, seven that we like.

Yeah. The question is about this last game. Cause I, Oh geez. Yep. Well, let's, this is a good one to debate. It's Sunday night football, five six seven that we like yeah the the question is about this last game because i oh geez yep well let's this is a good one to debate uh it's sunday night football or monday night football excuse me also in los angeles the chargers hosting the ravens uh the chargers are plus three at home by the way so do you know i think i'm fairly certain they basically just like scrub the turf and repaint it instead of just putting new turf in.

I don't know. That's crazy. I think they'll just put new turf in the end zones and all the logos. I don't think they do that. I mean, it's Chargers or nothing, right? No chance. No chance. Baltimore is so much better than this team, dude.

The Chargers are such frauds. Yeah, but Baltimore doesn't play that way though all the time baltimore is a team that can win the super bowl the chargers are a team that will lose the first round of the playoffs there is a massive this chargers team people are giving them a lot of credit for trying their best to lose a game to the bangles the chargers have seven wins guess how many total wins those teams have oh it, it's like, it's like 12. They have 24. So in those seven games, they're averaging three point,

whatever it's called three and a third wins each. The, the Ravens have beaten some really good teams, right? It'd be Buffalo. They beat Washington. They beat that Cincinnati team twice that the chargers, that was their best win of the season.

Probably. I just don't think that they, these two teams equal and I think Baltimore you know there is no home field here there is you know Baltimore I think is has a lot more to prove in this than the Chargers who have been coasting with uh you know this this weird win last week I think it's just a buy low on Baltimoretimore and a sell high on the chargers like i do not think these two teams are equal at all so i'm fine with the ravens here but it sounds like you're probably not with me oh i mean i didn't okay i i didn't really consider that ravens okay oh geez laying three in this spot i feel like i monday night football i do not want to wait for my night football two and a half we can find draft kings and uh so a few

others all right so i think the indies are yes plus seven and a half tampa bay is a yes minus five and a half i feel like and you love the niners plus three correct i like the niners and i like seattle i think we can say that that's good okay so that's four so chicago plus three and a half tennessee plus eight and a half we're taking miami off right i'm a seven miami's cooked yeah and i think if we're not if you're not with me on baltimore let's take baltimore's cooked so it's either chicago or tennessee i mean chicago's better than tennessee right i mean they're at home everyone's better than tennessee the I mean, they're at home. Everyone's better than Tennessee. The Tennessee case is just that there's some variance bounce back, right?

For them? Yeah, the Texans just aren't a team that can blow anyone out. This opened at six. Let me look here. We know what's going to be in tennessee this weekend are they all the pros which we love and there's only one eight and a half left at mgm uh this one is gonna this one by game time will be seven and a half i bet probably so what so we yeah so we can get So we can get eight and a half, you think? Or we can't?

I'm looking at one. Yeah, I'm looking at it. I think we take that. I feel like you feel more comfortable in that than the Bears. They both suck, dude. Like, we're going to be watching both games and wish we didn't have to bet on it. I'll be at the Panthers game, so I want to watch any of those shows. Yeah, that's right.

I'm not planning on watching, like, anything on my phone either. I'm just going to Panthers game, so I want to watch any of those shows. I'm not planning on watching anything on my phone either. I'm just going to just... No, just go watch football. I'll get text messages from you just during this time. We'll figure it out. Texans off a win against the Cowboys. They lost the Jets and the Lions the last two weeks. Colts game was a three-point win.

Packers game was a two-point loss. They haven't played well in a month. No. I mean, he goes back, but, like, he hasn't. I don't know. It's basically, they're just going to pound the ball and mix in. And, you know, Tennessee has a decent defensive front. Like, I don't know.

They're one and nine. Like, they can't keep going. They can't keep losing against this brand. You're right. I don't know. They're 1-9. They can't keep going. They can't keep losing against this brand. You're right. I don't know. I mean, I'm probably not right. We just don't want to do it. Do we want to lay out with Caleb against Brian Flores or

Fade the Texans? Fade the Texans probably. So Indy plus 7.5, Tampa minus 5.5, San Francisco plus 3, Seattle plus 1, Titans plus 8.5. Oh my my god this is an interesting week we're either going oh and five or five and oh those are the two those are two options i don't love our chances then no it's probably it's going to be like this every weekend three and two or two and three yeah that's where we live 24 30 and one by the 1, by the way. Eesh. We were 28 and 21 before last weekend. 21 and 28.

So we're digging our way out, buddy. All right. Well, my college picks are 58%. So if you want to tune in, those are on my social media. If you want to do, at Jeff Schwartz. All right, buddy. Indy plus 7.5. Tampa minus 5.5.

SF plus 3. Seattle plus 1. Tennessee plus 8.5. Indy plus 7.5, Tampa minus 5.5, SF plus 3, Seattle plus 1, Tennessee plus 8.5. Those are our picks. Hope you enjoyed the show, everyone. Go to Greg Moore's cards. They're fantastic. Go check out their website and see what they can get you

for any of the cards you have around your house. Matt, hope you feel better, buddy. Thanks, pal. Being sick with kids around isn't great, but hope you feel better buddy being sick with kids around isn't great but hope you get better soon and we'll talk to you guys next week we have to talk about this I think we're doing a show Friday maybe I have nothing to do maybe we'll do a show

I don't know we'll tweet out our pics have a good Thanksgiving everyone hope you enjoy it with your friends and family watching Cowboys Giants Matt Thanksgiving Day can't beat it DeVito and Cooper Rush. Maybe Daniel Jones. We'll see.

Maybe Daniel Jones. All right, guys. Thank you, everyone. Take care. Bye-bye. Bye-bye. Bye.