Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Week 14 Reactions and NFL Week 15 Best Bets

Episode Date: December 13, 2024

Geoff is back with another episode of Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. On today's show, Geoff and Matt recap week 14 of the NFL. Plus, a look ahead into week 15 of the NFL with Geoff's Best Bets.Be sure to follow the pod to get notified when a new episode drops each week, and follow @GeoffSchwartz on Twitter/X for more NFL and CFB comments. Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You will be live streamed on Twitter/X and YouTube every Friday all season long.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It is Friday, December 13th. I'm Jeff Schwartz. That is Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz's Smarter Than You, where we talk about the national football league, other things that cross our mind. We will go through the games as usual. We'll try to pick five winners for you guys.

Been a little tough this year, Matt. 33-36-1. We're not winning our battle against Nick Wright, the battle he doesn't even know that we're having right now with his show. Hopefully I can get him to acknowledge that when I see him this week in New York City. So we'll do that as usual. We're sponsored by Greg Morris Cards. We'll talk more about Greg later in the show,

but just want to make sure you guys have that QR code on the screen. You go to Greg Morris Cards and be able to get the value of your cards as holiday season approaches. I know you guys have cards sitting around. You want to know how much they're worth, you want extra dollars, go to Greg Morris Cards. You can scan the QR code here if you're watching on social media or on YouTube, or if you go back and watch our show on YouTube,

at my Jeff Schwartz, at my Jeff Schwartz, at Jeff Schwartz's channel. Go find me, pretty easy to find. Matt, before we get started here, we were talking behind the scenes about, I'm going to a holiday party tonight. And when people ask what I do, I played NFL eight years ago. So I don't say NFL player anymore.

I say podcast host. It's very pretentious to say that. What do I say that sounds like I have a real job? Well, I mean, I don't know if I would have, I would stop playing up the NFL thing. If I'm you, like when I say like, Oh, I'm a producer. And they're like,

Oh, what do you produce? And I'm like, I don't know. Just like some sports stuff. Like, no, you don't care.

Like it's, that's less fun than like, well, I used to play in the NFL and now I talk about football for literally like you actually have a cool job. Like you, you, you have like a cool,

I'm just like a guy, like no one gives a shit about me, but you like, you have experience. You have things you can regale people with. Like, that's nice. I guess I can. What, what, if you were to, uh, to, to someone to ask you, Matt, like what's the biggest podcast you work on? Don't say my podcast, but, uh, I guess it's our podcast at this point. What do you like? What's the one you mentioned? Like, which is the one you're like, yeah, I do this one. Probably Nick's. Uh,

we mentioned Nick Wright already. We do that one. Uh, Jeff was on Annie Agar's show this week, the offensive line, which, which was, is a great show nominated for a sports podcast award.

Shout out to that show. Um, yeah, it's, I mean, we have, you know, we're proud of all this,

all the stuff we make. I mean, for me, it's like, I used to, you know, produce some bigger, some, some TV shows and people ask like how I got into this. I'm like, well, you know, I used to work on, you know, good morning football or garbage time, whatever. And they're like, well, that's cool. Like, what are you doing now? And like, I

understand like a bunch of podcasts. It's not as prolific as being in the NFL maybe, or, uh, or some other things, but you know, it's, it's all in But it's all in how you pitch yourself, dude. It is all how you pitch yourself. We're going to try to pitch ourselves a winning weekend here, Matt. The Chiefs keep letting us down. We should probably stop winger on them at all times and or the Steelers that are going to – I feel like that game this weekend is going to cause us

a little bit of a discussion here moving forward. The Steelers are in the mix. And I'm going to have to just bite the bullet and take the Steelers even if I don't want to. All right, Matt. For those who are unaware, what we do here, we go over every NFL game. We try to pick five sides, essentially,

against the spread numbers. We may skip your game, like Jacksonville and New York Jets. If you came to hear about that game, you probably won't hear much, except let's just take Jacksonville plus three, because that's what we have to do. And give no analysis whatsoever. If you're looking for that podcast,

I don't want to turn you away, but I'm sure there's like jetsfandom.com. You can go find that one, but we'll go through all the big games. There's a lot of big ones this weekend. Matt, which one are we starting with? Well, that's a great point. One thing, Nick, I want to say,

didn't end up taking the Jets, so we have a chance to go against in there um really shout outs quickly to our friends at cooler uh cooler.fm uh you can sign up they're sort of just testing out their new app really cool way to sort of share your podcast you see it on the screen there cooler fm.fm use code jeff and you can join us ask us questions we'll be happy to read and engage with you guys. If you want to comment about the podcast, by the way, go to use the cooler app. Yes, you can tweet me or tweet Matt or Instagram DM. But like the one way to get us if you have a comment about any of our picks, if you want to fade us, tail us, any questions, go to cooler

or answer them for you can just put them in a little in a little chat section for every podcast episode. Yeah, definitely. So check us out there. A bunch of good shows are on Cooler now, so shout out to them. We're excited about what they have to offer. All right, the Week 15. Can you believe it? Week 15 games. I know, right, buddy?

Let's start with the one in your backyard. The Panthers are favorites for the first time in 34 games. They are laying two and a half to the dead Dallas Cowboys. Is it time to get on the Panthers bandwagon, Jeff? Is now the moment. 24 games. They are laying two and a half to the dead Dallas Cowboys. Is it time to get on the Panthers bandwagon, Jeff? Is now the moment. So this is the classic, why is the line two and a half? Because I think this game is more of a pick-up, Matt, right?

I don't think the Panthers are that much better than the Cowboys, even though they play better football lately. They have the same sort of roster problems that the Cowboys have with injuries and some of their best players not being able to play. But the Panthers have played better football recently. So when I see a line like this, I think to myself, does Vegas have it right? Are they telling us, Matt, the Panthers are the right side here? I think they are, Matt. I think the Panthers minus 2.5 is the right side in this game

because they're telling you, like, hey, I think it's a pick-em, but it's two and a half for a reason, guys. And look, the home field advantage in Carolina is not very much, especially against the Cowboys. A ton of Cowboys fans will be there. But think about the psyche of the Cowboys. They beat the Commanders. They beat the Cowboys.

Excuse me, the Giants. Oh, my God, we're in the playoff hunt. And then lose the way they lost against the Bengals on a short week. Michael Parsons walking off the field like he did. Panthers are feeling good. They're due for a nice quality National Football League win. It happens this weekend, Matt. I agree.

Actually, I was interested in where you were going to go with this. But I like the Panthers too. I mean, I think situationally, like you mentioned, this is just like a rough spot, right? Like the Cowboys have had this roller coaster of a season they got a glimmer of hope after you know a couple of games that they maybe could almost but then they get into this heartbreaking loss last week now they have to travel east to play this team that like they're not fired up to play against right like this is just not a good spot for a guy like you Rush to go and lead the team to a big victory over the Panthers.

That's pointless. And the Panthers are trying. The Panthers are playing hard. You can tell Rice Young is using this as a moment to revitalize his career. Hubbard just got that extension. He looks awesome. This Cowboys run defense is really going to be compromised this week. I think Carolina's a smart play here.

And I can't believe I'm saying that but i just don't see dallas getting up for this one and i think carolina like genuinely wants to win and wants to show out here and can against a banged up dallas defense especially green but carolina carolina sign me up buddy carolina what could go wrong minus two and a half against the Cowboys. All right, moving right along to the Chiefs, who are laying four in Cleveland. The Browns plus four would be the side if we were to engage with this one, correct? I think so.

Who knows? The Browns are so unstable right now. Yeah, it's the Browns plus four, but I mean, the way Jameis is playing, I guess, maybe. I mean, Jameis could not cover this game himself with some of the way he's played the last couple of weeks. I mean, that last week was brutal

being on the Browns in that game as we were, Matt. So yeah, it has to be, um you know Browns are bust here but I got nothing for this I don't want to play this one there is still a four and a half out there at FanDuel uh that's a little bit more appealing yeah I mean this is the way the case for Cleveland here would be you know that the Chiefs offensive line being banged up, you know, the Chiefs just another game where like, are they really going to get up for this one? The Browns have played some good games at home. You know, they seem to sort of be up and down in their effort, right? Like some weeks, it seems like they really, you know, bring it. And some weeks, it seems like they

really don't. Last week, we liked them. They didn't really show up. I don't know. I feel like there's a chance that this that they still end up covering this but it's it's not it's not my favorite let's let's put it in the movies i'll give you uh just the one chief stick i have matt is interesting here um they were up double digits in three straight games now and the games were close like i maybe don't think they're as bad as they look with the results i mean again like how many teams are up 20 to 6 13 nothing 16 3 and it just looks like they just don't care anymore matt so i i don't i don't think about kansas city i just would stay away from this one yeah that's fair um right well i'll put it in the maybes in case we don't get to five uh what do you think about

dolphins texans here texans off of a buy uh they're laying three at home to the dolphins who i i feel like everyone kind of forgets about the dolphins like everyone thinks that they're going to round into form here i'm not really sure what to make of either of these teams so i'm curious if you haven't taken this one i. I will, uh, I'll be, be happy to take Houston here. If you, if you have the lean with me on Houston, um, they're off a buy Matt, which I think is important. They're a good coaching staff and they're able to sort of look in the mirror and say, Hey, we got to start throwing the ball a little bit on offense, right? Like we have to use our offense better.

Your offense line is a problem, but let's figure out a way to make it better. They did lose one of their safeties, I think safety corner to injury, which is going to hurt them a lot. But the Dolphins though, I mean, it's beating a lot of bad football teams, right? It's the Raiders.

It's the Patriots. It's a Jets team that they should have lost to last weekend. Their offense is so reliant on what it feels like on the run game and Johnnie Smith, all of a sudden it's not a very complex offense. Like I feel like the Texans defensively have had two weeks to prepare for this team. Texas are at home. I like the Texans here. Plus I was looking at the numbers. I mean, there's a lot of public money on Miami this weekend. Yeah, I I'm with you.

I actually think, I mean, I feel like we've been in this spot a bunch of times where we've kind of been interested in backing the dolphins to as a underdog. He is two and eight straight up in his last 10 as an underdog. Wow. When he plays on the, on the road or neutral site against a team that's above 500, he is 2-12 straight up in his career, losing by an average of 14.9 points per game.

That's according to our friend Evan at Action Network. The Dolphins, I just feel like, are coasting off of this goodwill from last year and the assumption, sort of like San Francisco, that everyone had, that they're just going to bounce back. They're just going to be one of these teams that's going to figure it out because of the infrastructure the coaching whatever they just haven't and what concerns me a little is they have a pretty vulnerable the Texans have a pretty vulnerable pass defense could be a week where that you know the wattles the hills the Johnnie Smith's could could pop off but I feel pretty comfortable with Houston here off the bye. I actually believe in them figuring it out much more.

So I think there's a little bit of value on Houston here, who everyone seems to be a little disappointed in this year. I agree. And again, the bye is important here, right? This is a super late bye. And they have a good coaching staff. And I really think that they'll use this by to get their team right. And it sort of make this postseason push.

I need to, um, all right, well, we've talked about three games and we have a side in all three, even if we don't love the Browns one, um, Bengals Titans.

I feel like everyone just can't get off of the Titans. They are the worst team against the spread this year, uh, which is a surprising thing with the Jets and the Cowboys, the way they've played. They are catching four and a half to five at home against Cincy. Man, I don't think I have the stomach to take the Titans here. No, I don't.

I think we just, let me just skip the Titans. I don't like this either. The Bengals have pretty much been covered the bad football teams. They can't beat anyone with a pulse. And that Tennessee loss last weekend was as bad as they get. I mean, how are they going to play this weekend? I don't think they're going to be up for this one. The Bengals are still in it.

They have a lot to gain. So I would lean – I actually lean Bengals here. Yeah, I would too, but I don't love it. All right, I think we can pass this one safely. Speaking of passes, the commanders are heading to New Orleans to play someone named Jake Hainer in the Saints offense. The commanders are laying seven and a half also off a bye. Can't possibly take the Saints, so I think this is just a no discussion.

Really? No Commanders minus 7 here? 7.5? Is there a 7? It's a terrible bet. It's a brutal bet. No chance. No, I don't.

Jeez. I mean, we're going to look up in this game to be 35, seven. We're going to text each other. Like, why don't we just bet on this game? I know. Right.

Right. I know this does feel like the one that I'm a little nervous. Cause I feel like Washington either makes this huge statement and that they come out and it's like, wow, they're nine and five and they blown out all the bad teams they've played and they get Philly next week. We'll talk about Philly in a minute.

Or they could just kind of limp out like the way that they've done the last couple weeks uh you know the Titans game notwithstanding so uh I don't know interesting Marshawn Lattimore is going to play in this one so a little regret spot for him which is fun but uh I think it's a pass uh all right you mentioned Jets Jags already. The Jags are catching three and a half at home. The Jets have been favored in 10 games this year, Jeff, and they are three and 10. Shocking. Buddy, do we just blindly take Jacksonville here? No, we can't do it.

Cannot, cannot take Jacksonville. The three and a half is a little bit tempting. Can I make the case for Jacksonville here for a second? Go ahead. They showed a lot of fight last weekend in the ugly game against Tennessee. They're still playing, obviously, very hard, clearly. The Jets

have blown every game out. They get up a lead and then just stink it up down the stretch. What are the Jets playing for? I mean, the Jags aren't playing for anything either. Doug Peterson's going to be fired. But I like the fight the Jaguars showed last week. Again, against a bad Titans team. But, I mean, three and a half when the entire country's on the Jets is the way to go.

But we can skip it. I put it in the maybes. I just wrote it down for us. I wrote it down for us in case we need it. I guess I'd rather take the Browns plus four but then the jags but uh let's just put it down just in case let's put it down just in case matt it's a wager we always make it's probably why we suck this year because it's a wager we always make and it doesn't doesn't come home peterson seven and two this season as an underdog against spread um a little confusing though mac jones uh fourth worst quarterback since 2003 as an underdog and if he loses this doesn't cover this

one um that would make him the second worst of all time uh or yeah i think yeah since 2003 the fourth the second worst quarterback as an underdog. Can you guess? Good or bad? I think that's bad. Who do you think the worst quarterback against the spread is as an underdog? Do you know? Yes, Derek Carr.

No, that's his favorite. This is – Oh, underdog, underdog. Daniel Jones? Jay Cutler. Jay Cutler. Interesting, right? Nice pull right nice pull yeah yeah that's a fun one um all right so maybe on the jags god god help us if we end up having to take the jacksonville jaguars and mac jones uh how about the giants catching 16 and a half at home to baltimore um i don't even think this is a teaser candidate for either side like if if the giants if the if the ravens end up winning this game

like they could win it by 50 like quite honestly like it could be one of those baltimore games uh i don't know though what do you think do you feel do you feel the stomach to the back DeVito? Giants team total under 13.5, as to my wager in this game. Let's fade the old DeVitos. He's not good. He's not good. But, Matt, to be fair, the Ravens have had problems in these moments over the years. They've had them at home more often than on the road. But, ooh, my guy, these Ravens have had these problems, haven't they?

They have. But, you know, this is them off of a bye again. We've talked about that a few times. Baltimore hasn't had one of those games this year since, weirdly, the Buffalo game, where they've just dismantled a team. And this could be the spot where they do that. This also could just be they play the Steelers next week on a Saturday.

This doesn't necessarily mean that they're going to, like, empty the whole playbook here and show up against the Giants. Next week is a really important game. It's the number 16? 16 to 16 and a half. And then remember, after the Steelers game, that's on Saturday. Then they have a quick turn and play on Wednesday

at the Texans on Christmas. So this is a look-ahead spot. But this could also just be like, give Derrick Henry the ball for three hours and let him get back on the 2,000-yard pace. but this could also just be like give derrick henry the ball for three hours and you know let him get back on the 2 000 yard pace like what is what what's the what's the number of score if the giants cover like 28 13 27 13 like that or did the ravens have to score like in the low 20s with giants cover this game what do you think i don't i mean yeah it's probably like a and then probably the ravens

take their starters out if they're up like 20 to you know if they're up like the veto backdoor cover yeah right no i don't want to play it but i'm certainly curious um how in my mind they get there you know like that you have to do the math in your head right when you have these big numbers like how is that how do they get to this number um yeah i'm gonna i'm gonna pass okay it's haven't covered in seven or no they covered last week you like the panthers or you like the right i mean like the giants or ravens pick if you were to pick one to cover the spread you like the ravens no i think i would i would just take the giants and just say like he's up to he's up to 22 and a half. It's like I don't even see the value there.

You know what I mean? There's no value. There's none, which is so crazy. The old five dimes 16-point teaser. I think we could be comfortable up at 30. But right now, I don't think I could do that. This is the largest home. The Giants have never closed as a 14-plus point home underdog

in the last 50 years. Isn't that crazy? Do you think there's sharp money come Sunday on the Giants? There has to be, right? There's a big number. Probably. Not from us. It's gross.

It's gross. All right, let's talk about Pittsburgh and Philly. Great game. The Eagles are laying five to Pittsburgh in Philadelphia. We are always in the mix on the Steelers. Are we going to be in on them this week? Let me hear it. Make the case.

Let's hear it. Okay. Well, I mean, we'll do the obligatory. I'll just control F Mike Tomlin here. He is 64, 35, and 4 as an underdog. The Steelers are both 5-0 straight up and against the spread as underdogs this season. Can you believe that? Every single time they're an underdog, they've won. With a win percentage of 75%

or higher, Tomlin is 4-1 against the spread when he has been an underdog in his career. Obviously, we talk about Tomlin as an underdog all the time. When you look back at the Eagles' last couple of weeks, they should have lost to the Panthers. Their wide receiver and their quarterback are in a fight that has spilled out into the media. Their vibes are horrific. They beat the Ravens in a game where Justin Tucker basically gave that game away,

along with some other very silly mistakes. And then before that, nice wins against Rams commanders. But other than that, they haven't had a really good win against a team like this all season. And I think that Pittsburgh... I think the Pickens thing i think is big for pittsburgh but i i feel like that's it looks like he's not gonna play but that's priced in here right like i think that is a hundred percent yeah but i mean he's it's a half a point or a point right like it might be you know in our mind it might be

differently priced um okay a few things here Obviously, the Mike Tomlin underdog thing is certainly true, and it works, and the motivation seems to work here. I like A.J. Brown, by the way, over five and a half receptions. It's my best bet on my Bear Bets podcast. I like taking wide receivers when they call out the team for more catches. They typically get those catches because quarterbacks want to make them happy. Unless you're Deebo Samuel, who drops every ball, you typically catch those footballs, Matt,

and you go over your reception total. It's happened to Pickens this year, Malik Neighbors, Marvin Harrison Jr. Every time someone's like, we need to get that guy the ball, get him the ball the next game. So worth noting, A.J. Brown over. The Steelers, in my opinion, have to ugly the game up to cover, right? Because Philly has an offensive line that can block their defensive line.

They have Saquon Barkley. They have Smith and Brown and Goddard. And on defense, their defense is plenty good enough for the Steelers to not score any points. You know, like, so we normally blindly bet Mike Tallman as underdog. Matt, I don't know if we can do mentally. I can get there in this game. I don't know if you feel great about Pittsburgh in this game.

I really don't, but I haven't felt good about all season. I've been looking at like a dummy all season. So I think the Eagles are better. If this game was 28-17, would that surprise you for the Eagles to win? Not me. It would? It kind of would, yeah. For the record, the point total here, the over-under is 43. So that would be a surprise for Vegas. I think the point total is reflective of what

Vegas thinks. And I think the Eagles are this really public team that has looked amazing at times times but they haven't played this kind of defense uh probably all season and yeah i mean their their last like who is who is the best defense they've gone against is it cleveland in in the eagles season yeah yeah probably not many so you're so you're on pittsburgh's one of your favorite ones for the week? I just think, I mean, look, I feel like every week I want to take Pittsburgh. But this is the spot where you take them. And I think, to your point, they are going to muddy it up.

They don't have pickings. This is going to be a grinded out game. And I think Pittsburgh is going to try to make Hurts beat them. And I think that they're going to do everything they can to stop Barkley and try to keep this one close and turn it into a one-possession game like they seem to always do. Also, Jalen Hurts, as a favorite, is just about 500. But he tends to be better, actually the opponents are, are, uh,

are good, which is bizarre. He's, he's worse when he's a big favorite over bad teams. Um, so I don't know. I think this is a, I think this is a pretty, if you're going to take a side in this, you have to take Pittsburgh, but if you don't, if you don't love it, we don't have to put it in. No. I mean, I put in the maybes and this is a wager we, we do always make.

Um, so, uh, some of to consider here. And you guys should consider Greg Morris Cards, our friends who sponsor this podcast here. Everyone's looking for a few extra bucks around the holidays. What if you were sitting on money you didn't even know about? My friends at Greg Morris Cards are leaders in vintage sports cards that can help you turn the sports cards

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There's lots of things I can do with my cards. I need to go get the rest of them, which are all at my mom's house on the East Coast. But I mean, it's really cool what they do. They give you the best price. Like, they're out there in the market. They're known for being the most customer friendly um great guys they've been super fun to work with so thanks to them for the sponsorship it's been fun to work with them over this last month and get to know this business and be able to check our cards and see and see what they're worth and as we mentioned get some extra money around the holidays and look everyone you guys know this you have sports cards lying around you find out today what they're worth. And as we mentioned, get some extra money around the holidays. And look, everyone, you guys know this, you have sports cards lying around.

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take a step down, go find us on YouTube, go find the QR code. So thank you for Greg Morris Cards for being along with us over the last month. All right, Matt, what do we got here? Cool. All right, the next game is the Broncos and the Colts. Broncos are laying three and a half or four to the Colts. Why am I scared of this one? This one just doesn't feel interesting to me,

but like I do feel like Denver isn't a bad bet here, is it? I know a lot of sharp groups on the Colts this week, which I don't know if that matters to you, but they hit the Colts pretty early in the week. Interesting. I think it's more just like maybe Colts off a buy need this win more but i i don't like it i i i'll be quite honest i sometimes i have buddies who you know who send me their wagers that are sharp groups uh sharp people they they love the colts man um money's on denver

tickets on denver i mean all the signs of of you know which we typically don't like to make but i don't a lot of times i I can make a reason for liking a team that someone sends me that I trust in this situation. I don't know what it is in this one. I took it because he told me to, but it's different than your contest picks, obviously. But I don't know what the reason is for it. I don't either.

I mean, it's Denver off a bye. They're both off a bye, I think, right? Yeah, that's right. That's right. The Colts are. I don't know. I mean, the Colts are a tough team for me to figure out. They kind of are up and down. The market's really high on these Broncos who have been on a bit of a tear. And, you know, people are putting Bo Nix into the conversation with my guy, Jane Daniels, which is insane. So I don't know this. I don't feel a big advantage here. It's interesting that the shark groups are on the Colts. There is a four and a half out there for if we were curious about Indianapolis,

but I do not have a lean here. I have nothing on this one. No. Yes. All right. Whether we are picking this game or not, we'll definitely not have a lean here. I have nothing on this one, no. Yes, all right. Whether we are picking this game or not, we'll definitely have something to discuss here. Buffalo is at Detroit in the next installment of the game of the year.

Detroit opened, I think, is one and a half. They're up to two and a half now, pretty much everywhere. I think it's a consensus now. Do you have a side here? Yeah, Buffalo's going to win this game. So I'll be very happy to think of Buffalo plus two and a half. We called this last week with the Rams, right, and the Bills. We nailed that game.

It's funny how we nailed that game and then the Bears game, we were the exact opposite. We completely unnailed that game, which is the fun of the way gambling works, right? Look, the Bills defense will play better. They were embarrassed their last game, right? They're going to play better. That's just the natural, you know, regression to mean of the benefit of football players.

But one of the same reason we took the Rams last weekend, Matt, is the Bills were itching for a loss. Detroit's itching for a loss. They're ready for it. You know, they go, if they go two and5 on fourth down, they lose to the Packers. They went 4-5 on fourth down, right? Their defensive injuries are really concerning. They got a few guys back this week,

but not enough to make that big of a difference. They also don't play running quarterbacks terribly well. Josh Allen's not a running quarterback, but a very mobile quarterback. I just think the Bills just played better this weekend than they did last week, especially on defense. And so I like Buffalo to win this game, which means I love,

I certainly like them to cover. So I'll take two and a half. We're not getting three either. So I'm fine with two and a half. Yeah, I agree. I think this is a bit of a Lions fade too. Yes, absolutely. Here's how you can tell.

Josh Allen's going to win MVP this year like that's going to happen there's a chance if lamar were to win out maybe that he would be able to steal it from from josh allen but the whole saquon debate was adorable and now the the latest one is is jared goff and people are sort of saying like well if he wins this game against josh allen like maybe he's the mvp it's like we're that's that's a bubble talking, right? Like we're at the point where we're saying that Jared Goff is MVP. He's not. He's had a nice year. He's been very efficient.

But I think that this is one of those weeks where it's like, oh, right. Like the Lions aren't 100% right there quite yet. And Buffalo coming off a loss, as we mentioned. right there quite yet. And Buffalo coming off a loss as we mentioned. The other thing is Buffalo, or I'm sorry, Detroit has not played a real offense in quite a while. And we haven't seen the, I mean, the Packers not, not withstanding. And by the way, that game was super close, came down to the last possession and an interesting call at the end of the game. We haven't seen the, the, the Lions defense have to play against a team like this. So I have some doubts that they'll be able to keep pace with Josh Allen in general.

So I agree. I think Buffalo Moneyline is a really nice play, too. I agree with you. I think they're going to win this game. All right. We have like four, by the way. I think we feel good about them. I think we get there.

And there's one more that I – well, there's one I really like and one that i almost like just to to get your reaction so yeah i mean maybe it's this one it's uh the chargers in the bucks could this be one no not this one no no interesting why who do you like well the line is two and a half or three there is a two and a half out there for the draft case. I like the Chargers here. Shocker, I know. But I actually think the Chargers are the right side in this one. Tampa is, I think, flying a little bit too high.

And the reason for that, first of all, they're super banged up. Evans is going to play, but he's been banged up. Mayfield's been banged up. I just want to go through the Bucs' schedule here. They beat the Raiders. They beat the Panthers in overtime. They beat the Giants. They lost to the Niners. They lost that overtime game to the Chiefs. They lost to the Falcons. They lost to the Ravens. Granted, they were really banged up in those games, but they are traveling across the country to this chargers team that doesn't turn the ball over ever the bucks have had one of the luckiest years in terms of their turnovers i think i heard a stat that they've fumbled the ball 16 times and lost it five times like they've they've won a bunch of

games with these like really fluky missed field goals, a bunch of really bad teams. So I just think that the Bucs are just a little bit overrated. And meanwhile, this Chargers defense has been dominant. And I feel like, if anything, the Chargers are flying a bit under the radar right now. They're getting McConkie back most likely. They had that sort of weird game against Atlanta, the loss to Baltimore. But this is what the Chargers do. They beat teams that aren't as good as them.

They can't beat anyone better than them ever. But all they can do is take this Bucs team that's compromised and traveling across the country, I think is just in a tough spot against a really physical defense. I didn't expect the Chargers to be here. I know. I never want to take the Chargers but I think that they're I don't know weirdly Baker

is awesome on the road 12-4 on the road with the Bucs which is a little surprising but I just think the Chargers are way better I don't know what to say I didn't prepare for this game what about Herbert's ankle does that worry you at all well i'm like i don't know what to say i don't i didn't prepare for this game i think we had i mean what what about herbert's ankle does that worry you at all no what about mcconkie like i

just this mcconkie i think is gonna play um let's see what his latest was it's i think he practiced okay um well let's put him in the maybes then i didn't expect this one i'm not gonna lie i didn't have much prepared for this game i didn't think we'd have much to do here yeah well it's because i never own the chargers correct he was limited on thursday um well they're in them they're in the maybes yeah okay well i'll take that uh okay so then interesting i was pretty sure that that was gonna be the one that you liked but there well, well, there's one more. All right. Patriots at Cardinals. Okay.

Just remember the disclaimer at the start of the show, or we just say, we're just going to skip the games. We don't. Yeah. We're going to hit the disclaimer button. Let's just, let's move it to next game.

Yes. There are others. There are other podcasts that we'll talk at length about the Patriots. If you listen to those, God bless you. Every member of sports media, except us came from Boston. So you can find that somewhere else. The Sunday night game. I, God bless you. Every member of sports media except us came from Boston, so you can find that somewhere else.

The Sunday night game. This is one we like, right? Seahawks are catching points. Two and a half is the latest line. I wish it was three, but it is two and a half. No, it was three yesterday. You got to take Seattle in this. I was stunned by this line.

No chance. I mean, no, I'm sorry. Not yesterday. Yes. Seattle plus two and a half is the one I liked. Yeah. Look, is Seattle play well last weekend

after we talked about sort of two straight games where they kind of got lucky with some turnovers and whatnot. But this is just, it's a tough place to play, right? It's a tough place to play. Packers off that loss against the Lions. Defense didn't look great.

Now back on the road again. And Seattle is fighting for the division. Like the Packers are out of the division now. I'm not saying they're not going to play hard. We know they're going to play hard, but they're out of the division. Like they have lost tiebreakers to the Lions. So I like Seattle here plus the points. It's a good spot for the Seahawks.

Sharps have been hitting Seattle as well this week, which is important to note. It doesn't mean they always win, but important to note. I feel like a lot of people will be on the Packers because they think they're going to bounce back. I've been behind the Packers all year as well, but I don't think it's a bounce-back spot for them. Give me Seattle.

I mean, three would have been fantastic. We don't get three, unfortunately. Yeah. Yeah, we don't think it's a bounce-back spot for them. Give me Seattle. I mean, three would have been fantastic. We don't get three, unfortunately. Yeah. Yeah, we don't. I don't think that people are really taking into account how good Seattle's defense has been the last couple weeks. I mean, there were some really goofy plays in that Jets game. But, you know, they played the Cardinals twice.

They held them to 24 in two games. They held the 49ers to 17 on the road. They've gotten healthier. Those defenses sometimes with the scheme-heavy coordinators, as McDonald in this case, takes a while for them to gel. And I think these teams are just about a coin flip. And Green Bay has – I just didn't understand why Green Bay would be favored here. If it was you know

Seattle is a short home favorite like then we I think we'd have to like really look in the mirror before taking this but I don't know man like I just I was really surprised by this line like I would have guessed that it would be at least two or three points in the other direction so I don't know the this season Le Lafleur has not won a game, has not covered a game against team over 500. He's traditionally very good at that. But this year they're, the Packers are Oh three and one against the spread against the lions,

Texans and Vikings. Yeah. And you know, you mentioned Seattle is a tough place to play. They haven't been great there lately. No, that's a good point. Yeah.

But I mean, if anything, that helps us, I think. It's probably a regression candidate. I don't know. I like Seattle. I think it's a smart play. So do I. I'm with you. I agree.

All right. We've got two Monday night games. No one asked for this. When did this happen? And by the way, they're both terrible games. No one asked for this. So first is the vikings hosting the bears uh full touchdown for the vikings seven do just do guys do a vikings

bills teaser just be that's what you do and commanders oh should we do one should we do one for the show like we normally do let's do one so we got uh commanders i hate to go in that direction though commanders it's just a win bills do you stealers so here's the theory i have how about this one i think you know so there's for you know anyone listening at this point is aware of what you do with your teasers, right? You don't ever cross the zero on the teaser because you lose value on a couple of points. I think that that rule should actually fall out of favor with the Kansas City Chiefs.

I think teasing the Chiefs through zero is like the safest bet you can make because they never cover but always win. So it's like a nice way to just make them slight underdogs. Interesting. So like you're, you're losing the value of the, of the zero and whatever.

I understand all that, but I kind of feel like teasing the chiefs back through so that they're plus two against basically just, you're saying that it's a money, it's a, including a money line and a teaser. Essentially. Yeah.

And, but you're basically, it's like the chiefs aren't going to lose to the Browns, they're going to win by two so you might as well just bump it back to you know just crossing the zero to make give them a plus what about chiefs commanders bills steelers seahawks vikings steelers seahawks yeah dude i i love that let's do it a six point plus 550 i love that okay done um so that's how you play the vikings just put them in a teaser that's that's what you do this weekend for the vikings um yeah all right matt matthew we're not we're not touching this game okay it's the jeff is jeff is trying to butter me up

to take the Raiders plus four against the Falcons on Monday Night Football. Why are the Atlanta Falcons favored by four points over anyone in the National Football League, Matthew? The Atlanta Falcons are freaking awful.

Who's starting a quarterback for the Raiders? Does not matter. Yeah, it does. Yeah, it does. Yeah, it does. I will not be betting. I mean, in this case, our reputation, but in my hard-earned currency on, is it Ritter? Who cares? It's a Kirk Cousins fade.

Dude, I get it. But like, that's priced in. No one's excited about the Falcons. There's not a chance we're taking whoever's starting a quarterback for the raiders no chance should your sanders actually got drafted this was your sanders yeah you're telling me that we should in our contest where we're trying to catch nick right bet on desmond ritter and sincere mccormick That's what you're saying. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Um, that's not happening. All right. I think we have six. Is that right? We'd six. We liked, well, I mean, if you include,

so here's what I, here's what I have. Oh, and the chargers. So I think the five we agreed upon Carolina, Houston, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Seattle. Yeah. I mean, you like the Chargers. Yep. And that was about it. That was it. Yeah.

We decided to leave the Browns off. Correct. I mean, we can get off of the Pittsburgh thing for one week and take the Chargers, but it seems like we both like Pittsburgh more than that. Pittsburgh's the right side, though, as you're right. God, they screwed me this weekend again, like last weekend. I mean, I guess it was on the Browns last weekend. Low numbers here, right?

Carolina minus 2.5, Houston minus 3, Pittsburgh plus 5.5, Buffalo plus 5.5, Seattle plus 2.5, Seattle plus 2.5. Matt, question. When you were living as a youth, did you ever go to you ever go the army navy game it's like in your backyard yeah you went born in annapolis yeah how fun is that game it's awesome it's so fun i want to go yeah it's it's super it's super worth going like it's a really fun crowd like everyone just cheers for every play like it's it's like everybody's just excited to watch those c-teams play you were born in annapolis yeah that's navy right yep oh is your parents in the navy or just that's where you guys lived

yeah just where we lived oh okay my grandfather was in the navy um yeah hey we didn't even talk about the uh the game last night. It's sort of dumb to do it at the end of the show, but any takeaways from the Thursday night game of the Rams beat the 49ers by six? Good luck paying Brock Purdy because I feel like every game they play, it gets even scarier to pay him, right?

You know, I made this comment a lot. You have to pay quarterbacks right like two i had to be paid dad had to be always had to be paid but when you pay someone that much money the expectations of their success change right and so when you pay someone as much money as you're gonna pay brock pretty you expect him to elevate your team when things are not perfect right so when there's no brand i equals no trent williams there's no Christian McCaffrey. I didn't see that yesterday. Now, Debo dropping that slant is a huge problem.

But what about the terrible throw that he, the last play of the Niners game, offensively, it was a terrible throw. He underthrew Pearsall. He underthrew Debo deep. Like, he didn't play that well, Matt. And in those moments, the elevating doesn't happen.

So, that's my takeaway. I have a Rams to win the NFC West ticket. So that's my takeaway. I have a Rams to win the NFC West ticket. So plus 320, something like that. So between three and three and a half to one. So I'm happy about that. But the Rams, I'll tell you what, man. They are, I think they're not a Super Bowl winning team, but they're about as reliable of a team as you get.

I think you know what you're getting when Stafford's healthy and he has his weapons with him. That's what you're getting. High effort on defense, execution on offense, toughness, physicality, playing the right way, whatever that means. Foe obviously felt a certain

way about that answer. Even McVay, this is kind of silly, but McVay didn't change his cold sweatshirt in the rain. It's just like, we're focused on football, man. We're focused on football. We're here to go kick some butt and get it done. A lot of coaches change at halftime

wearing a wet sweatshirt. I know that sounds silly. I get it. But I like their attitude. I like their mentality. Devondre Campbell. Yeah, I was going to go there. He decided not to, he's going to be released or suspended.

Can I tell you an interesting story I had in my career around this idea of not going into a game? All right, so the Campbell's story is different than mine because Campbell was a starter, right? Greenlaw, their linebacker towards Achilles in the Super Bowl, was the starter. He got hurt. So Campbell was brought in to start with Greenlaw hurt. So Campbell has been starting, okay? They tell him, hey, Greenlaw's back. Greenlaw's going to play.

Greenlaw gets hurt. They tell Campbell to go in the game. Campbell says, no, I don't want to play tonight, okay? So here's my situation. With the Vikings in 2012, I was rotating in two drives a game. It was a complete bullshit system, sorry for my language, where the starter was Brandon Fusco. He got two drives. I got one drive.

He got two drives. And no matter where we were, he started the second half with two drives. So essentially it ended up being that I got one drive in the second quarter and one drive in the fourth quarter in a game. I played 15 to 20 plays a game and the coach was like, well, why aren't you playing

better? Well, you give me 15 plays, buddy. I mean, you need 60 plays to play. So as the year went on, this rotation happened and you know, I would question him like, what's going on, dude? Like, we just didn't get along, the offensive line coach and I.

So we're playing the Texans in week, back then it was week 16, the second to last game of the season. And he didn't put me in the first half, okay? And I'll take you back. I wasn't playing great either. Like, that's hard to play well when you get two drives a game as an offensive lineman, okay? He didn't put me in.

We come back out of halftime. He goes, do you want to go in when it's your turn to go in in two drives? So basically he asked me if I want to go in in the fourth quarter. I said, no, I'm not going to go in now. So I get it. But our situations were different. And secondly, if someone got hurt, I would have gone in. That was my job.

I was the backup. So I was ready to play if they needed me to play, but not some dumb rotation where I get one drive in the fourth quarter of a game just to say that we're keeping the rotation going. So different situations. No one called me out for that. I wasn't like, you know, the coach wasn't like,

Schwartz didn't go in the game. Someone got hurt. I was ready to play, just like I was every single game. So, yeah, I mean, look, the Niners were in the game. They needed him to play and he chose, he turned it down. Like that's, that's a problem, Matt. He's going to be released. He's going to be cut. It's not going to be good. And I don't know if he deserves that per se, but I don't know if he deserves that per se. Do you want to come on the podcast, Emmy? You want to ask everyone what's happening?

My kids just walk in here, Matt, whenever they want. Like the lights are on. I'm talking. I'm screaming. Dollar just walks in, asks where something's at. So he's going to be released. There she is. He's going to be cut.

Emerson, I am actually working right now. Can you give me like three minutes? Wait for this part of your life, Matt. She texted, I almost sent you a picture. She texted me yesterday. Are we doing parent corner now? This is like our parent corner time. I have a few more things to talk about, about this game, but yes, we can do that. She, she texted me the other day, yesterday. I'm at the airport lounge. She got home from school. Hey, can you get me sushi? Order me sushi. I was like, no, I'm not. So I sent her a picture back, a selfie back of myself saying, I love you. And look what she sent me back. So I sent it to you. It's unbelievably funny.

Just, just complete like her mom. Okay. Your comments on this game. Go ahead. I'm looking at this photo now.'s it's loading i need sushi with a very funny face how funny uh shout out to emmy i my first i was curious about your take on the campbell thing my takeaway was um i sean mcveigh man like i just don't think that he's i feel like shanahan is this is revered is this like amazing coach sean mcveigh like has a better winning percentage he's 85 and 55 so good in his career um shanahan this has coached one more game he's 78 and 63 he's won a super bowl he's been to two he's he's done better than shanahan by every single metric except their head-to-heads in the past where the 49ers have weirdly like had

the Rams number. I just think that McVay like McVay and Stafford outside of my homes and read is the best coach quarterback combo we've got. And I think that like, I just don't think the McVay gets enough credit. My other question for you, Jeff was right now, the 49ers are 13th

in the draft order is there any world where they would take a quarterback in the first round like cam ward potentially might be there no i mean here's here's my i'll put this on the record now december 13th it's pretty pretty is not a free agent yet i don't guess one more year they have to extend him it's sort of now the custom that you extend them this this right but he'll remember he doesn't have a fifth year option he's having a throne pick right are they in the sam darnold sweepstakes that's where i think they go which is hilarious because he played there what a year ago right yeah i think it's i think it's it's we can we can pay sam darnold 30 million a year to do the job says 60 million a year i don't think they can though like when you look at the construction

of their team like you know who are they saying goodbye to they paid iuk their whole defense is paid mccaffrey's paid trent's paid like they don't the whole the only, their whole defense is paid, McCaffrey's paid, Trent's paid. The only reason their team functions is because they pay their quarterback nothing. So in some ways, I feel like they kind of have to restart the rookie scale, whether that's a first rounder or a second or third. Their window is open only as long as they have achieved quarterback because they've capped themselves out in every other area. Unless they're moving on from some of these guys, but it's like,

look at their whole team. It's just all megastars. All these guys, Warner, Greenwald, Bosa. If they ever had got injuries, this was a problem. They'd have no depth whatsoever. Right. And Purdy, I think Purdy is a solid quarterback. I don't think he's better than, I think he's like right in the middle.

Like I think him and Baker Mayfield are somewhere in the same area. Right. So I don't think you can really pay him, but they need a contingency plan. They can't go and get, they can't go and get Darnold or, you know, a starter's salary and bid against these teams because they have to say

goodbye to something else. And they can't like, there's no, they can't do that. I don't think they need to offer the linemen still, man. Like they need some real help. They can't do that.

I think that their window is closed. I think it might be because then they still have to deal with all this. Like they like what's McCaffrey going to be like in a year, right? Like what's green law going to be like, what's Fred Williams is going to be like in a year. Right? Like what's Greenlaw going to be like in a year? What's Fred Williams going to be like in a year? I'm Fred Warren. I'm with you.

I agree. It's a fascinating situation. It is. All right, Matt, anything else? No, man. I think. How's Maryland basketball doing this weekend? What's on tap for them?

Let's see. Do they play this weekend? I don't know. The Big Ten started to schedule already, which is kind of crazy. Yeah. Big Ten rivals. Oregon and Maryland. the big 10 started to schedule already which is kind of crazy yeah big 10 rivals uh oregon and maryland uh no they kind of have a late schedule for a while and then our next big game is against is at oregon on january 5th is it really yeah we've got some i don't know kind of warm-up games

got syracuse sunday too nfl sunday with a with a maryland o game. At 1 o'clock also. 1 Eastern? Oh, 1 Pacific. Yeah, 1 Pacific. So we'll have Witching Hour on my screen up here, and I'll put Oregon-Maryland on a different screen. I'll put somebody in that game. Yeah, that's great.

Could name one player on either team. So that's the way it works. All right, everyone. Have a great weekend. Check out Greg Moore's card Morris check out the cooler app leave a comment for us scan the QR code for Greg Morris we'll be back next week

on Friday and we'll talk NFL and college we will talk also Matt casual playoffs because that is Friday night and Saturday next week just prepare you don't have to prepare for that. I will talk about it. We'll cover that for you guys as well. Take care, everyone.

Have a good weekend. Enjoy the football. Hey, buddy. Bye.