Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Week 15 Reactions and NFL Week 16 Best Bets

Episode Date: December 19, 2024

Geoff is back with another episode of Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. On today's show, Geoff and Matt recap week 15 of the NFL. Plus, a look ahead into week 16 of the NFL with Geoff's Best Bets.Be sure to follow the pod to get notified when a new episode drops each week, and follow @GeoffSchwartz on Twitter/X for more NFL and CFB comments. Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You will be live streamed on Twitter/X and YouTube every Friday all season long.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Thursday, December 19th. We're on a Thursday, Matt. I'm Jeff Schwartz. That's Matt Ford. Jeff Schwartz is tomorrow. You have to move a little bit, a little vacation plans, go into some snow. I will not be skiing or snowboarding, Matt. I will be advising my family on the best way to do that from the warmth of the lodge.

But nonetheless, hopefully this weekend is filling you guys with some football warmth. We have games, Matt, in the NFL on Saturday, Sunday, Monday. Also, if we want to get to the end of the show, college football playoffs. Four games this weekend. None of our teams are playing. My team is playing January 1st. I'll talk to you about the four games moving forward. Matt, we are struggling in the National Football League, buddy.

It's not been a great year for us. We have three weeks to turn this around. We are 35- the National Football League, buddy. It's not been a great year for us. We have three weeks to turn this around. We are 35-39-1. I don't think we're going to catch Nick Wright in a competition he does not know about. But as we do on Fridays, but today is Thursday, we'll go through all the NFL games, including Thursday night now, and we'll give you an idea of the plays we like. And by the end of the show, we'll have five picks against the spread.

They're going to be a little ugly today. I have a feeling as they are every weekend. These are not cashing like they used to, but there are some sides, possibly a team that has an owner who decides on trades based off of Madden ratings. It might be included as one of our wagers, Matt. I can't get enough of the Jets storyline. People ask, is it real?

Yes. Woody Johnson, it's all real storyline. People ask, is it real? Yes. Woody Johnson. It's all real, Matt. Yeah. It seems real. Timing's interesting. Uh, the week that we should all be talking about Aaron Rogers is sweet.

New documentary. We're here talking about his owner. So I wonder, I, you know, you kind of think Aaron Rogers might be behind some of this, but it might be Joe Douglas leaking it. I don't know. It's 100% Joe Douglas. Someone asked me, it's not Rogers. Rogers is not talking to Danny Rossini, who he's publicly called out before,

about... Now, Mike Silver, who did help with the article, he is a Cal guy, and him and Rogers are connected, but Rogers wouldn't know why Woody Johnson decided to not trade a play or not, as my dog just viciously barks to protect the family

from something that there's no reason to protect. I'm sorry, guys, if it's live and he's just having a ball downstairs. Hopefully the mailman is safe from my vicious indoor dog. But I think it's all real, Matt. So it's fun to follow. It's very fun. Another domino in this Jets season

that has just been absolutely outrageous um yeah well we could talk about the thursday game what else i mean it's i should i should let you know it was the blue duck holiday party last night oh uh so like a lot of people are looking a little tired in the office today sam yeah producing the show bright-eyed bushy-tailed of course always 100 professional um but yeah drinking a little a little uh unnamed electrolyte supplement here would welcome a sponsorship from them uh it was a nice night everybody had a good time we wish you guys go right here oh okay i don't know we did a white elephant in the office and i i got a lava lamp okay so my son's nightlight is a lava lamp by

the way that's what he uses for a nightlight. The dog just, I don't know what's happening out there. Someone must be dying in my front yard. Who knows? That's unimportant. Hopefully someone can get him to be quiet, but who knows? The other day, my wife had a white elephant party. Well, a Christmas party. We did white elephant gifts. I saw a TikTok, Matt mat where there was a rotisserie chicken given as a white elephant gift so we did that i went and bought a rotisserie chicken from the grocery store and we gave someone a rotisserie chicken in a box we gave a gift card as well but um the right reaction was had and then what the best part is the person's house we had the party at

was like i was like hey man are you gonna keep the chicken he's like should i go i bought? I bought it three hours ago. And he's like, sure. So he kept the chicken. It went into his fridge. So I gave someone a meal, a whole rotisserie chicken. It was fantastic. Um, okay. Before we get going here, as we lollygag, uh, once you tell you guys about, about pine sports, it's pine dash sports.com slash subscribe. It's an AI tool to help you answer any questions about sports wagering or stats in general. Just anything you want in professional sports, NFL, NBA, NHL, and hockey as well. And if you want to, use it for wagering. It'll help with player props. There's an AI tool.

And throughout this show, guys, what we're going to do is when we have a question, like Mike Tomlin's record against the spread as underdog, we'll put it into Pine Sports and it'll give us the results. I did it already. I'll put a hand up and say I've been practicing six numbers right away. You go to this page. You can look up NBA player props. I just randomly put in players' names.

They tell me over under prediction on whether they're going to go over under their props. Same with Tyreek Hill, who I love this weekend, for his player props over. I had to go under. I might put over anyways. But a great tool to use, if you use our code, Jeff with a G, that's G-E-O-F-F, you get, what, Matt, 50% off. Whatever tier you want, the lowest tier would be $20 with the promo code. It's very fun to use, especially with people like us that we throw some trends in there,

we like some stats in there. And Matt, I know you've been playing with this as well. So throughout the show, we're going to use it. And we're going to hope it helps you, it helps us win some wagers. I love this thing. I keep playing with it. When I got it for the first time, I was like, well, this can't be what I think it is. And it's essentially one of their tools that is the AI chat tool, which is just chat GPT,

but just like four bets. It's unbelievable. I've spent so much time on this thing. Yeah. So Jeff, you said it. I've got some, I'll throw you a surprise later in the show based on this um so yeah i i love this thing everyone check it out it's pine with a hyphen dash pine dash sports.com slash subscribe or look at jeff and uh you can also build models as well in this um and you can i believe there's like leaderboards and things to like actually put

down your wages if you would like so it helps with fantasy football, which I know is near the end of the season. There's a predictive board as well. You can predict who covers the spread, who wins these games. I might join up and predict something. Why not? But let's get, Matt, to our first game of the week, which oddly enough for us is a Thursday Night Football game. Yeah, Thursday night game, AFC West battle right here in a few miles away in Englewood.

The Chargers are two and a half point favorites against Bo Nix's Broncos. I'm curious if you have a lean on this one. I don't know if we could include this in our five. That feels, I mean, we need all the help we can get, but if you've got a side here, I'd like to hear it. I am not sure all the help we can get amounts to betting either one of these teams in this game. I will say I would be on the Broncos, Matt. I don't really understand the Chargers being a favorite in this game. Yeah, you can look at the Broncos

and say some of the scores have been misleading. The final scores last weekend was one of them. They had two picks against Cleveland. But the Chargers, I mean, they're not any good, Matt. I mean, the best thing going in this game is the Broncos' defense. We know that they'll come to play. So I would lean towards the Broncos here plus two and a half, but nothing strong here. I mean, three would obviously be better.

Yeah. Love this as a teaser leg uh absolutely for the broncos chargers have had a really strange last month uh with that win over the falcons that kirk cousins essentially handed them and then three losses that you know the kansas city lost they played well but it didn't didn't really feel like they were close and you know certainly last week they got blown out. Yeah, I don't know. The Chargers might be the commander's east. A team that overperformed at the beginning of the year and in the playoffs you're like, oh, okay, we can handle those guys. By the way, any juice that you're saying, I'm curious here.

Jane Daniels, I think, is like a minus 600 rookie of the year favorite at this point. And there's this hive of the internet that's like, Bo Nix, got to consider him. Where are you with that? I mean, I have a Bo Nix ticket, Matt, that I got at plus, I don't know, 300. It was fairly recent a couple weeks ago. I mean, if they win out, and that includes a Chiefs win week 18, and the commanders struggle down the stretch.

They had Philly this weekend. It's certainly possible. And that includes a Chiefs win week 18 and the Commander's struggle down the stretch. They had Philly this weekend. Certainly possible, but I think people do not equate the success of the Broncos to Bo Nix. They equate it to the defense and the coach. Or they equate a lot of the success of the Commanders to Jaden Daniels. Yeah, correctly, in my opinion. I think that's the correct reasoning. Also, people forget that Denver won eight games last year. They were a good team

coming into this. Um, but I am curious. I I've, it does feel like he's the only resistance. Like I, Bowers has maybe had the best year of all three of them, but I don't think they would give it to a tight end over two quarterbacks and playoffs, but I was just interested in your take there. Um, all right, let's move to the Saturday games. Uh, sure. Seems like Patrick Mahomes is playing because the chiefs are like three and a half to the Texans. This one was a real rollercoaster. I wish I had bet this one. It was the Texans opened his favorites in KC.

So yeah, what do you think, Gary? Okay. So I said this on my VEASAN radio show on, um, on one second here on my, my VEASAN radio show, um, on Monday that I thought it was, uh, odd to see him, um, to see this number, where was that? Cause I thought myomes was going to play him out. He's played every game but two in his career. And I immediately bet the Chiefs plus three, like sight unseen.

Like, this is ridiculous. If Wentz plays, this number is not going to move very much, maybe four or five, but I still feel good with three. And then I took Texans plus three and a half today. So I have a nice middle, Matt. I got a little middle action happening right here. I had made this point. I wonder if you agree with me here.

The Chiefs have two options. You battle through Saturday's game against Houston, battle through Pittsburgh, win both those games and rest for a month, essentially. They have not had a bye since week six. Everyone needs rest, not just Patrick Mahomes. Or you rest Mahomes, you play Carson Wentz, and I don't know, maybe lose the one seed.

How does that do your team any good, Matt? Mahomes will be just fine. He'll fight through it. Now, I'm not laying with Kansas City in the game, minus three and a half, even though I would argue Tennessee is, I mean, Houston, not very good. Like, I don't know, Matt.

But Chiefs, in this game, I would stay away from it. So I have that middle happening right now. Well done. I think, yeah, I agree. I think if Mahomes can play, you play Mahomes. Like, it's not a difficult conversation to have with your team. I think this is a huge... People kind of don't understand where the Chiefs are in the seeding.

Buffalo's got the tiebreak over them. They're two games back, and Buffalo plays New England twice in the Jets in the next three weeks. Kansas City, even though they're up to two games, if they were to drop this one, then all of a sudden they're looking at Pittsburgh, who is a brutal team to play ever. You know that they'll be favored. So you know that we're going to like Kansas City will be favored. So, you know, we'll like Pittsburgh. And then, you know, they could just, they could lose out on that one seed. And then all of a sudden, like that rest goes away and then in round one you know they could be playing they could be playing a team in their division which like they wouldn't

want to see or maybe they could be playing baltimore like that's not a great outcome for them so i think i think they win this game and i actually don't hate them covering the three and a half because i have so little faith in houston yeah not one of our picks but it's an interesting conversation but if it's like if mahomes says he's good enough to play like you have to play him it's the shortest thought process of all time yeah i don't really people were arguing with me about this on on sunday and monday and i was like i don't what do you mean you don't play him i don't understand like you if he can walk you play him i the people and we've looked i don't know if there's been one podcast, and I know this has been millions of people

who listen to this, that has talked less glowingly about a player than Carson Wentz in our time, Matthew. We had a no, like, Carson Wentz embargo for a long time. We did. Him and Matt Ryan. No offense to Matt Ryan. It's like embargo.

We're not talking about you guys anymore. Chiefs are like, oh, we can't win a game with Carson Wentz. I think like him and Matt Ryan. No offense to Matt Ryan. It's like embargo. We're not talking about you guys anymore. Chiefs are like, oh, we can't win a game with Carson Wentz. I'm like, I don't think so. I don't think so. Yeah. You know what just popped in my head? I was going to mention this earlier.

This is a very side note. And when you mentioned holiday party earlier, we got sidetracked talking about other stuff. I think you know where I'm going with this, maybe. But the last time I had dinner with the entire blue duck group uh trey wingo gave a toast about something like guys it's a great year we've made x amount of money it was great and i looked at you and just giggled to each other because the number he threw out there it's number for his podcast i won't blow him up i won't

blow him up good number good living if you can get it um but uh the that that made i'll never forget that memory of just like guys hell of a year everyone good blue duck you guys are we're kicking ass we made x amount of money and i looked at you matt i was like yep x amount of money yeah shout out to trey and once again that is pine-sports.com slash subscribe. I can't tell you, Matt. What? That is it. We have a sponsor.

Let's go. We appreciate our sponsors. Of course we do. I'm just talking about the one time. I know. We can improve the situation for you. Three years ago. You could be paying for the holiday party soon. If use my promo code i certainly can yeah no that was a that was an

all-time great work moment because you were just like you were like what this isn't a free internship it's not it's not it's not just three guys talking about sports twice a week well look man you can't find just anybody who can go 42% against the spread over 16 weeks. Like, come on. We're offering a pretty high product here. What's Nick at right now? Nick's doing well. I can pull it up quickly, I think.

He's paying the Vang. He's like in the high 50s, I think. We're at 44%, buddy, okay? Yeah, I that that was a guess i think i was exactly right you you were you were you were right on the mark um i mean we're not going to win until we get a cool graphic like he has for a show that outlines our wagers so yeah until hank's until hank does that um they can't do that don't worry i love how you laughed so hard when i sent you a text saying like hey hey, can I have this graphic for this show?

And you're like, no. You're like, no, that's not handy. Nick would never trust us to do that. Like, Nick hired a person who's good at that. Like, that's not right. We're very good at other stuff. You guys should hire us to make all of your great shows. Oh, Matt, you should hire us to do everything. Except, I guess, nice little

gambling graphics. Oh, there's a picture of Mahomes throwing from practice today. So he's playing. All right, Jeff. Well, good news. We've been on for 45 minutes and we've done two games. There's another Saturday game. We've got Pittsburgh at Baltimore.

Baltimore, for some godforsaken reason, is laying six and a half points to Pittsburgh. I didn't even have to consider that we'd have a different opinion on this. Like we have to consider that we'd have a different opinion on this. Like we know. So here is pine dashboards. Ready? I put in the, the,

to the, the, the AI system, right? Tom and record against the spread as underdog. I got six results back immediately. All right. He has the third best underdog record against the spread among active

coaches. First divisional opponents. When Mike Thomas listed as underdog record against the spread among active coaches. For his divisional opponents, when Mike Tomlin is listed as an underdog against divisional opponents, the Seahawks are 26-9-2 against the spread. That includes 13-2-2 against the spread versus John Harbaugh. After a loss, his teams are 24-11 straight up. Excuse me, after a loss, they're 24-11 against the spread. And what's wild, Lamar Jackson 0-5 against a spread versus Pittsburgh.

And so our boy Evan Abrams is getting put out of business here. But Pine Sports, man, this is the place. If you want to look this stuff up, no better place, Matt. So I think we just, we don't play in Pittsburgh, but I think we do here 100 it's obviously the right play and then this is the time of the year where like i don't know obviously like you don't have to do this but like i i imagine that like i have a pretty good sense of what's going on out there but like i'd like to listen to smarter people than me and take and

think like you know what that person knows what they're talking about whatever i'm now at week 16 i'm using my eyeballs right i'm using what i'm seeing on the field every week baltimore is just not that good of a team and pittsburgh the difference between pittsburgh and baltimore is not seven points on any field especially the second time so this one just felt like just completely out of whack to me even though like i know the pickings and the watt thing potentially both missing this game would be enormous uh but it doesn't matter these two teams play the same game every time they meet so i love this one uh this i feel like this is a great spot to uh to take pittsburgh um okay so our our weekly stealers bet is on the board uh next up the sund game. Start with another

AFC North game. The Bengals winning 7.5 to Cleveland. My God, everyone still loves the Bengals. Is this going to be DTR? Is that who's starting this one? Yeah, DTR is starting, yeah. Yikes. Teaser leg, I would think, but I don't have a player deal.

No, it's a teaser leg. That's about it. The Bengals' defense is just so bad, it's really hard to say, like, oh, you know what, I'm all in on them covering this number, right? The Browns, I need one more win. I got over three and a half wins. I got an alternate number, geez, a month ago. That was bad.

I mean, that was bad the other day. That was really bad um so uh yeah uh i mean just hard pass this one yeah fair enough um okay moving on to rams at the uh woody johnson led jets uh hard to find a buyer for the jets now. They are plus three and a half at home. Boy, are we doing it? Aren't we a buyer of the Jets this weekend? I think we are, dude. I hate it.

I think we are too. I think we have to be. So look, this sort of fits a system that we like to play a lot, like dome team going to play in 26-degree weather in MetLife Stadium. That's just the Rams. That's just the spot team struggling, man. They do all the time. We're going to have another play later on, I think,

you know, in the same vein. So the Jets aren't bad. The Rams are good. We're getting to the point of, like, the Rams get hot. Watch out. Stop. Stop it. Stop. good we're getting the point of like the rams get hot watch out like stop stop it stop it's a it's a extreme sell high spot on the rams too two really interesting conflicting trends on this mcveigh and stafford uh going west to east which is like a very popular narrative i've always been dialed into those uh 7-0 straight up as favorites when they're flying west to east, which I find very

interesting. McVay, 14-2 against the spread in December. Unreal. But Stafford, 3-5-1 against the spread in freezing temperatures. So it's interesting to see how he'll do with that. He's played in Dome or in LA his whole career. So I think in this one, look, who wants to bet on the Jets right now? Nobody. You don't read a report about the owner suggesting they draft or trade players based on Madden ratings and go like, that's the team I want to put my money on.

So the fact that Vegas is sort of dangling that three and a half out there, they obviously think this is a close game. The Jets, even the hot team like the Rams, they don't win every week. This is a really nice spot to sell them, I think. I'm glad we're aligned here. Even though, God.

The base record of ATS in December, according to Pine Sports, is 24-10-1. It's really good. Yeah, that's great. Yeah, so we'll, we'll take our chances, I guess. I might never use anything else.

I just use this the whole time. I know it's an incredible, it's typing whatever you need. It's awesome. I know it's really good. Uh, okay. My team,

the commanders plus three and a half facing Philly winners of 10 straight, uh, 80% of the money is on Philly. The commanders are getting three and a half at home. I feel like I could never talk myself into the Commanders here. Here's how you play this game. You live wager

the Eagles when they're losing in the second quarter. That's what you do for this game. Eagles start slow. Commanders start fast. Eagles eventually play better in the second quarter, third quarter, fourth quarter. Commanders do not. I think it's that simple, Matt. 7-0. Commanders go 7-0. You bet the Eagles on the money line.

Done. I like that play a lot. That's how you play this game. If Eagles score first, then you just sit at home and you watch the game. That's how it is. Eagles are playing good football. I think they win the NFC, by the way. They're also very healthy,

which is supposedly helpful at this time of year. Also, weird number. Not weird number, but this is via Evan Abrams. Jalen Hurts is a favorite. He's not profitable against the spread, unless he's against a team over 500. Then he plays really well. They cover the spread a lot in those games. Another one of those teams.

A good football team and the commanders. And that game last weekend. Oh boy, that was close. That, that, that teaser leg that got ruined because of that. Not, uh, not fun, not fun, buddy. Yeah, that was not, that was, uh, that was a really bad game to participate in and, and, and root for your own team. And I was almost almost pissed more pissed off

that they won for some reason well that's the way it works so if you can't cover the spread you might as well lose yeah no that's right um here's i just so i one more time for pine sports i typed in commander's eagles bets and they suggested taking the over for saquon barkley's longest rushing attempts at seven and a half seventeen and and a half yards. They projected for 19 and a half. Barkley has hit this line or above 100% of his last five games and the commander's defense ranked 25th in rush yards allowed. That's like a really strong case that I just typed in commander's Eagles bets and it spit me out one of those. That's a minus 120. So I like that play. It's a nice play.

So you know what play I've been making and it's not up yet because it's a backup running back. I've been taking Gainwell over his rushing prop a lot of weekends. The Eagles running back second string because it's so you can't put it in pine sports. It's not up yet. Typically they put these backup backs

in later and later, you know, closer to game time. He gets, like, all the third down carries. So, like, third and 12, let's say, third and 13. They put Gainwell in to run the ball for eight yards. He also gets him at the end of games. Barkley gets beat up a little bit. It takes three, four, five carries to get there for him. It's typically 19 and a half, 18 and a half, 20,

somewhere around there. So, look at Gainwell as a possible play there. So, all right, no play for us in this one. Next, next one here. All right. Next one home game in your backyard for the Panthers. They're getting five points now. Wow. To Arizona. No one wants to buy the Panthers after they burned everyone last week, including us. We're dumb asses, by the way. What are we doing? I kind of like them again.

I know. God damn it. All right. Make the case. Well, I mean, the case is that last weekend was a prime example of a team reading its press clippings, right? First time a favorite in 33, 34 games. Had not been that spot where they looked bad.

They played good for a month. They, 34 games. Had not been that spot where they looked bad. They played good for a month. They looked really bad. And I think they'll play better this weekend. The professional organization, I think they'll kind of bounce back. Look, they need to win, obviously. They don't need to win, I should say. They're itching for a win, right?

They've been close. Did you see Colin Murray this week? Was asked about the cold weather. Yeah. And was like, oh. And it was like, Oh, and it's not that cold here in Charlotte on Sunday, but it's not Arizona.

So that kind of worries me when your quarterback is like, Oh, if it was a mistake, they basically asked Kyler Murray, are you ready to play in the cold? Or do you like the cold? And he said like, how cold is it?

Oh, 35 degrees. He's like, Oh, so I'm making the Eagles wager, by the way, the Saquon barkley wager i think it's a really smart play um i just gotta find i gotta find long longest rush here it is right here 17 in done love um yeah i i feel like the the panthers money line is a nice play here i

think they're like almost let's see yeah. Yeah, they're almost plus 200. Yeah, I guess I could get behind this mostly just as a lack of faith in Arizona being able to travel well. They do have obviously a good run game. I don't feel great about this one, but I'd be willing to consider it at least. You said we get a plus five now? Yeah, I see a plus five out there. Okay. I'll put in the maybes. I mean, Pittsburgh and the Jets, I think, are in for both of us. it at least you should we get we get a plus five now yeah i see a plus five out there okay

i'll put in the maybes we i mean pittsburgh and the jets are both of us yeah that's two down uh there's there's still a few i really like uh is this one of them probably not the tennessee titans who i refuse to bet on ever again are uh plus three and a half at indie unfortunately the titans are the play and uh i regret to inform you i i do not have the stones for it no we're no we're not doing that no chance zero chance we just skip this one okay great uh mason rudolph is that uh does that tickle you tickle your fancy at all mason rudolph it does not no yeah okay yeah me neither great right, let's move on to Lions Bears. The Lions are six and a half point road favorites in Chicago. Buddy, I'm so sorry.

I think we have to do it. Really? Yeah, I think so. Six and a half? Six and a half. Yeah, I think. I mean, was this on your radar at all or no? I think the Bears are just so broken that it does not matter

why they can't play any defense. Right. That's really it. Second time these two teams played, obviously, it's very clear in my memory, in case it's not as clear in the rest of yours. The Bears, this was the game that killed Matt Eberflus. This was the game where it was on Thanksgiving and the bears were driving and they had a chance. And that was in Detroit when the lions were much, much healthier. Um, and that was just a month ago. So these teams

have played, they played each other close. This is the second matchup it's in Chicago. It's outside. So Jared Goff's going to have to deal with, uh, finally being outside in the cold weather i think for really for the first time this year yeah except that game 84 of the money is on the lions as a road favorite of almost a touchdown where like their defense like their defense is just cooked and this happens some years where your team just falls apart as the season goes on and nobody really sees it coming so i I think for a couple of weeks, we're going to have an opportunity on the lions and the bears,

like they'll show up for this. I think they were probably pretty pissed off after that, that last game. So if we can find a seven, that'd be incredible, but I'll take a look around and see if we can find one. Oh, but I think you got it right now.

I feel like in Matt, in most years, this play wins, but this year it's not winning, which I'm not sure we should deviate off. We're not taking the Lions, but that does worry me. But this is the play you always have to make, right? Outdoor team, it's the indoor team going outside.

Badder, not badder weather, but worse weather than you're used to. Your playing team got embarrassed last week that feels dead man walking, like the time to jump in would be now, unless they're just dead dead, which is certainly possible. But Lions defense has like 25 players in injured reserve. They can't stop a soul. They've allowed 31 points and 48 points now in two straight weeks. So I would, it'd be bears or nothing, put it like that.

um i would uh it'd be bears or nothing put it like that and consider too like uh let's see the bears won two out of them back on pine sports the bears won two out of three it sold the field against the lions which is meaningful because they actually have been good uh the the bears were nine and a half point underdogs in that Thanksgiving game. Lions have failed to cover in three straight. I just think, I don't know, man. Also, this is just, defensively, the Bears D is good. Without David Montgomery, what the Lions can do on offense, especially outdoors, is going to be really limited, I think. So I don't mind this one.

Montgomery, yeah. Yeah, so I think. So I don't mind this one. Montgomery, yeah. Yeah, so I think this is a good value. It's just tough to bet on such a weird team. But this was one of my favorites coming into the week. Well, I put it in a yes. It's also in the maybes in two categories right now. But I think we're probably in on it. I think it has to be in.

All right, what do we got next? All right, next we have the debut of Michael has to be in um all right what do we got next all right next we have the debut of michael panics uh facing your former team the giants uh i see an eight and eight and a half out there uh man do we have the confidence to lay it with uh with michael panics i don't think so right no i i don't i think this is just a stay away. The Giants are just utterly atrocious, though. Holy heck, Matt, they're bad. No, we can't put a quarterback in his first game, though. And the Giants are just not worth wagering on.

Yeah, this got up to 10, which is crazy. I don't know who's out there buying the Giants. This will be the least bet game of the the entire weekend yeah that's probably right um it's also gonna just like kill people in fantasy football one way or the other uh with all these falcons so that's a pass for us uh i'm rooting for the guy uh always i like them coming out in the drafts uh okay minnesota at seattle's our next one this is now into the late window on sunday uh vikings are three-point road favorites because everyone's down on seattle because they killed everyone last week uh you're saying yes as if you were emphatic about a play we're gonna make here

yeah seattle um two two reasons well three um one is well, Seattle made us look bad the other day, Matt. Sure did. That guy Sam Al struck again. They got embarrassed. I think Geno's playing this game. I think that line of three would tell you he's playing if it doesn't play close to six or seven. They were embarrassed.

And they're a professional sports team. That is a possible playoff team. They're going to play better this weekend at home. That's just the law of averages, right, Matt? I assume Geno's going to play in this game. We have a Minnesota team that is a dome team playing outside in the rain. Do not like that for Minnesota, right? All the time we see this, it's going to rain this weekend in Seattle.

No surprise. It's mid-December in the Northwest. And lastly, the Vikings have pressure, which they really haven't had all season. And the pressure is, win out, you're the one seed. You heard that right, guys. If they win out, they're the one seed. Okay?

Because they win the tiebreaker against Philly based off of strength of schedule, and then they would beat the Lions in Week 18. So how is Sam Darnold going to play with the pressure of this now? There hasn't been pressure all season like this. And we haven't seen that in his career. He hasn't had to play in this situation in his career. So I like Seattle here plus three, Matt.

No doubt about it. We have all these underdogs this week. It's so scary the way the season's gone. Yeah, favorites covered, I think, all of the games the games but one last week and i think that might have been my stupid i do have one favorite i like at some point you're gonna hate it no we'll say uh darnold on short rest i hope it's the same one like in his career uh i'm not sure what'd you say darnold is two six and one as a as a on short rest in his career. They're coming off a Monday night game where they're traveling. Interesting one.

We'll find something out about these teams. We'll see what that is. I don't mind Seattle, though. I think that's a solid play. Is this the one, Jeff? Is it the 14-point favorite Buffalo Bills hosting Drake May and the Patriots? Is that the one? That is the one.

Oh, my God. Okay. Okay. Make the case. Well, the case is the same. They beat the one? That is the one. Oh, my God. Okay, okay. Make the case. Well, the case is the same. They beat the shit out of all the bad teams they play at home. Right. They do it all the time.

We bet this early season against Tennessee. And New England is dead. Like, they were off a buy, Matt, and looked terrible last weekend. And everyone's like, fire the coach. I made this joke. I'm going to run it by you again. I'm going to workshop it again. And when I wrote about this game for Fox Sports, I said, you know, you can count on one hand if

that hand was missing three digits of impactful players the Patriots have on their team, right? Straight to me and Christian Gonzalez. That's it. No one else. Two. Two. And you get it. Bill's defense allowed 90 points the last two. I think the Bills love getting a little excessive. Like Josh Allen's going to win MVP.

I get that. But guys, they've allowed 90 points the last two weeks. You realize that, right? 44. Actually, I think my math's a little wrong. It's 80 points. But it doesn't. It's a lot of points.

You could argue that 82 points. You could argue that. I've told you before I have an old school calculator on my desk. I've got an old school like. Oh, wow. Look at that thing. Yeah. Is that acasio or something what do we got what's the cheapest it didn't have a battery it just runs off of like the digital like hopefully the sun in my office that's amazing actually it works off the off the light i have on like the obviously you know lights up here and so yeah so it didn't have a battery it's a battery in it. It's a KK83712X.

12S. I don't know. It was $10 on Amazon probably five years ago. I love it, dude. KK83712S? Damn. Flex. An old school, just an old school 12-digit calculator on my desk.

I'll do a quick math because I'm a dummy. All right. I think Buffalo wins math, but I'm a dummy. All right. I think Buffalo wins and covers this game by a lot. Well, it's a clash of styles. Buffalo, you know, they like to get out to big, fast leads and not look back. And the Patriots, 3-27 straight up, 4-25-1 against the spread when trailing by 7 or more at any point that's

the worst in the league uh so a tough a tough time uh to do to a tough team to face uh jackson our friends at pine sports they say that uh josh allen has covered 50 in a time when he's favored by 14 or more so it's not like a super tough ask for him. So I'm cool with this one. Obviously I like it a lot in a tease. These two teams play each other again, as I think I mentioned in two weeks. One thing I wanted to ask Jeff, is this the week to,

so Josh Allen is minus 900 to win the MVP. Like it's basically, they're basically saying like it's done. If Lamar Jackson were to win against... If he were to win out, are we sure that Lamar wouldn't win it over Allen? If they were to go... I think they'll get them to 12-5, the Ravens.

Wouldn't you think that he would have just as much of a right to it as Allen would? I think there's going to be Lamar Jackson voter fatigue. Three MVPs already with zero Super Bowl appearances. Whether that's fair or not, that's going to be the knock on him. Is that he's one of these MVPs. I mean, three MVPs would put him in rarefied air, right? Big time.

Yeah, I don't know. It's still just like it's like something you know something weird could happen i mean just the top of my head three mvps would put him with like brady brady and rogers right and like three rogers has four manning has four five man against five i think uh yeah four but yeah it doesn't oh five you're right five you're right five he's got five yeah yeah so yeah interesting it would put him in very rarefied air like it'd be it would be him and tying jim brown oh uh farve looks like he has three yeah yeah interesting well uh okay fair enough well i mean johnny unitas and jim brown um yeah shout out those guys how about rose in 1954 it was a sporting news mvp there rose a hive let's fly let's go uh all right a couple more games left here uh i like this one unfortunately

the 49ers going to miami oh geez this is basically you can find a favorite on either side here uh how do you not take the 49ers in this like i just feel like this is just this is so screamingly obvious the dolphins stink they haven't been able to do anything in months they beat the rams and everyone's like oh they must be good but the dolphins suck man like i i think this is a slam dunk oh geez i was i have nothing for this game buddy i just think that both teams aren't very good right now and the niners what are they going to be this weekend who's playing who's not playing i see the running backs out trent williams is he playing and not playing um a dolphin's fate is certainly doable. I actually had Tyreek Hill over six and a half receptions when a wide receiver

we talked about this last with A.J. Brown. When wide receiver was angry on the internet, did typically get the ball the next weekend, Matt. Wow, Niners, huh? I have nothing on this game. I'd rather have nothing on this game. If you like the Niners a lot, we'll certainly consider it.

I just want to go through who the Dolphins have beat this season. It's the same thing as always, right? But the thing about it is the Niners aren't that good this year, though. They're not that team that we always bet against the Dolphins with. Yeah, but the Dolphins lost to the Titans. They lost their wins this year patriots the rams the raiders the patriots again the jets in overtime that's who they've beaten this year they stink man and they beat the jaguars in week one congratulations oh they they got a huge problem

their hand with tua they they design plays that they're terrified of him getting hurt. And that's not a place you want to be. Not great. Alright, we can pass on it, but if we need a fifth, I'll not make it. I mean, it's down. I was surprised you went there. Interesting. I didn't expect that. Well, there's not a lot left to pick from here.

The last four o'clock game is the Jags and the Raiders in a barn burner. Uh, the Raiders are favored. How much time are we wasting on doing other things in this show? Yeah. I'd rather talk about my holiday party pass. Uh, bucks at Cowboys, bucks laying four to Dallas.

Dallas is a little frisky, man. I just don't know if I have the stones to grab the four. Take Mike Evans over. They're trying to get him a thousand yards. Yeah. Um, so I've got this tweet from someone matt um that said it gave a list of like all the guys that are up for um bonuses if they hit certain incentives and i got this argument with the people that i was in text thread with and i like them i do radio with them but they never played in the nfl and their and their thought was like,

well, you know, like these teams try to get these guys, these bonuses. Like they, they do not, no one ever does that. Like,

this is just, it's just a way to waste money on props. But one of them that was included was Mike Evans. And the bucks have said, not have said, but it's very clear. They're trying to get him as thousand yards this season. Cause that's,

I think 11 years in a row and it ties or, or passes rice and um so i think any mike evans numbers um you know i'm gonna put into i'm gonna put into pine sports the mike evans projections for this weekend um i i i think that uh that um mike evans would uh anything of his overs would be a way to go here yeah uh tramon digs should be out as well. I don't know. I think Mike McCarthy has saved his job, Jeff. I think that the Cowboys are playing really hard. That's a team that we all could have said goodbye to.

They've had some impressive wins. This one would be very impressive if they were to do it. But I'm not going to make an impassioned case for it. And lastly, maybe if you've got the Mike Evans thing, we can do it, but if you want to buy it, it's got a couple more seconds. I'm looking it up right now. Sounds good. The Monday night game, Saints-Packers. The Packers are 14.5-point favorites.

Oh, that's painful. Yeah, just no. Yeah, it's just out of reach i think uh the saints saints are i don't know they're playing inspired but uh hackers should be able to take care of business but i don't love them by so they have mike evans uh uh pine sports has him uh slightly under his projection this weekend um And then it has him over Long's reception barely. By three yards. But yeah, over receiving.

Doesn't like it. Now I'm going to have to put on my spreadsheet understanding whether Pine Sports wins me these wages or not. Well, we'll,

we'll have plenty of time to test this tool out because I can't stop looking at, I'm reading it as you're talking to me about it. Um, that's that's how much we are believing in this thing. Um, all right, Jeff, I think we do have our, our list to go through. Uh, but if you want a little more time, I can, I can pitch you something. Let me hear you pitch me something. So at the beginning beginning of this lately we've been doing these monster teasers right at the beginning at the beginning of the show i put in give me a six legs a six legs six point teaser yes and it did and i actually really like what they are okay what is it so it starts the night the broncos let's kick them up to plus 8.5 at the Chargers.

I love that one. The Seahawks plus 9 at the Vikings. Love that one. Well, the Seahawks are home. Yeah, so plus 9 at home against the Vikings, yep. They said to take the Bengals down to 1.5 against the Browns, which we liked. They kicked the Panthers up to 10.5 against Arizona,

which we liked. And then two kind of risky sides, but I'm buying them the Falcons to two and a half against the giants, which is just risky because of panics. And then the Jags plus seven and a half at the Raiders. I think I might have to take that one out, but I, I do really like four of those legs. Do you want to, do you want to throw the, do you do the chiefs thing again? Oh, and tease them through the zero. Yeah, we can do that. Yeah. The chiefs thing again oh and tease them through the zero yeah we can do that

yeah the chiefs are going to win uh so we can we can take them down to two plus two and a half yeah uh which is where you got them originally that number that number is about to go to uh back down to three maybe but yes okay and then so and we wanted we could kick the bears up to 12 and a half too. We can do that. Or the bills down to, to, uh, eight to eight. What about niners getting seven now?

Oh, that I like. Let's do that. Let's do that. That's really good. Okay. So, uh,

teaser here, uh, by the way, a parlay. If we just put those six, just sides in by themselves, uh, 50 to one.

Wow. Damn. I wonder if it's gonna let me i think it's gonna let me wager on this i mean no i'm not doing that that's a waste of money we're not doing that i'll just tease it uh six point teaser plus 550. All right. Done. We did it, bud. If any sharp people are listening, they're like, how dare you do that? So I think we have our five, by the way. It's not much discussion.

I don't think we pretty much. Pittsburgh plus six and a half. Jets plus three and a half. Chicago plus six and a half. Seattle plus three. Buffalo minus 14. Pretty good. Pretty good list.

The other option was, was the Panthers somewhere. I mean, Panthers and Buffalo are for discussion, but I feel fine with Buffalo. I have no faith in New England at all. Who, who had the most fun last night,

the holiday party? Oh, that's a really good question. I think the fun was pretty evenly distributed. There was a moment, I will say, where Hank, who helped us out with Bind Sports, helped produce the show, he asked Gabe for playing cards, and I looked back, and all of a sudden,

everyone was playing Kings. Do you remember that game in college? No. That's the one where you put the cards under the beer tab. And when it opens, that person has to chug the whole beer. And I looked around and I was like, you know, we've, we've, I don't know, probably a dozen or so folks that are full time here. And then like some freelancers.

And I like looked around and like, there's everyone playing the game. And then there's ourr freelance person at the end a mom of three who's awesome heather and she like she gets the thing and it's the tab where the beer has to open and so she has to like gas this beer and i was like this is the best company ever like it's like it's like office christmas party at the end uh you see that movie no oh oh when the hr lady is uh uh it's kate mcminnan is that her name from snl yeah yeah and she she's the hr lady who's like overly hr aggressive that ends up like being a fun by the very end of it um so that's that's fantastic um what's the what's like the median age of the employees

i feel like it's a younger younger crowd yeah i mean i'm one of the oldest and i'm the employees i feel like it's a younger younger crowd yeah i mean i'm one of the oldest and i'm you know 36 there's there's probably like three or four people over 30 here um so it's a fun crowd man it's it's a good group it's a nice group uh it was nice to get a good hang so uh thanks for putting up with us jeff i know we're not always perfect but uh we sure like doing the show with you what are you doing um for christmas i'll be in uh santa monica come swing by if you're in town i will be in utah that's close it's closer i am i'm there's no legal sports wager in utah and uh i've gotten so accustomed to using my apps in uh charlotte that uh it going to be a problem this weekend.

It's going to be a problem, Matthew. Hey, man, a couple days, a couple clean days never hurt anybody. No, it hurt me. Because one thing that a friend of mine who I do radio with on Fox Sports Radio, if you want to check out Bill Krackenberger, he's fantastic. He's a professional sports handicapper. He makes a lot of money in NFL props. It's a professional sports handicapper. He makes a lot of money in NFL props. It's a lot.

And so I've got to find a way to get someone to log into my account and put these wagers in for me. But delicately. You have to do them slowly because otherwise I don't want to get limited either. Yeah. Interesting. To find someone back east that I trust to do it for me. All right.

Well, pine-s sports.com slash subscribe promo code jeff it's fantastic get 50 off and then next year because all you guys use the promo code when i do the holiday party toast i'm gonna talk about how much money we've made via pine sports and other things that are in the works at the moment um Matt, you're welcome to leave the studio you're in right now to go to a bigger space that is more... The supply closet. It's the only room available. They're redoing the studio that you've done some shows in here.

So if you heard the occasional drill, that was why. They were demolishing our beautiful baby boy over there. Really? Next time you come. You're redoing the studio? our, our beautiful baby boy over there. So really next time you come to the studio. Yeah, man, we're doing it. We're, uh, or next time you're here, I feel like it's, you guys are near the time to get a new, a new, bigger space.

I think you're getting close to that. Dude, if we ever left here, there's a lot of wires, man. There's a lot of stuff we need to fix. Uh, so yeah, there's a lot of stuff we need to fix. So, yeah. There's a lot of wires. Jeff, enjoy Utah, man. Thanks for doing this. We're back on Friday as always. Oh, quickly.

Riley Leonard over rushing yards. I like Notre Dame to cover, and I like Penn State to beat SMU in cover. So, comfortable playoff. Quick wagers there. Also, remember, guys, January 5th, Maryland-Oregon playing basketball. So, big dayoff, quick wagers there. Also, remember guys, January 5th, Maryland, Oregon, playing basketball.

So, big day for us coming down the stretch. I saw you if you were in your Maryland shirt. Go Terps. Go Terps. All right, guys. Have a good weekend. Talk to you guys next week.

Take care, everybody. Bye. Bye. Bye. Outro Music