Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Week 16 Reactions and NFL Week 17 Best Bets

Episode Date: December 27, 2024

Geoff is back with another episode of Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. On today's show, Geoff and Matt recap week 16 of the NFL. Plus, a look ahead into week 17 of the NFL with Geoff's Best Bets.Be sure to follow the pod to get notified when a new episode drops each week, and follow @GeoffSchwartz on Twitter/X for more NFL and CFB comments. Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You will be live streamed on Twitter/X and YouTube every Friday all season long.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It is Friday, December 27th. I'm Jeff Schwartz. That is Matt Ford. The Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you. Where we try to give you football winners on a Friday, Matt. We try. That's our attempt. Not the best so far.

We're glad to have you along. Hope you had a Merry Christmas, a Happy Holidays. We're in the middle of Hanukkah right now. And we're in the middle of watching a bowl game. And I have a wager on it, Matt, believe it or not. So I might be making some noises. We ooh and ah through the Oklahoma Navy Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl during the taping of this show. But as usual on a Friday, what we're going to do is we're going to go through the

slate of NFL games. We already had three this week. We will touch a little bit on those. We have more this weekend. We'll try to pick out five winners for you guys. And we can't be any worse. So Matt, how are you doing, buddy? I'm good. That's quite a tee-up. Oklahoma Navy is a bowl game. Interesting. That's an unlikely set of opponents. I have Oklahoma Moneyline, and they're up 14-0. Then they're up 14-7 at halftime, despite outgaining Navy by a double

and having double as many first downs. And now it's 14-14. So things are going great right now. Yeah, that's how the kind of year it's been for us. That's how it goes. So in the NFL this season, this tweet from Todd Furman, entering Thursday's games, or it should be Wednesday's games, Thanksgiving games.

Since week five, Matt, favorites were winning over 75% of games straight up and 56% against the spread. That is the highest and best number since 2005 well guess what 2005 is as far back as bet labs goes so it could be for the entire nfl history that this is the largest the best favorites have won and we are an underdog podcast we pick underdogs that's what we do for the most part um there are some favorites i do like this week um michael michael back to well with well with one or two of these, unfortunately. But we're going to see in the lines this week that they have an inflation built in this week for favorites.

There are some absurd numbers this weekend, Matt, for some of these favorites. So we'll go over the games. But first, we want to talk about Pine Sports, pine-sports.com, promo code Jeff. We talked about it last week. Hopefully, I can just put in the AI system today, like, give me a winner

because I can't win any NFL sides. But it's a great AI tool. It's a great opportunity for you guys to go research any props. Sorry, it's pine-sports slash subscribe,

promo code Jeff. And you want to go check out any way to look at a game, any, any, any props, any size, any totals.

They have a great AI tool. They have a great research tool and it's gambling focus. We talked about last week, we put one in for Mike Tomlin. It didn't work. They didn't cover against the Ravens. I had them not covering against Kansas city anyway. So that was fine with me.

But a great way to just explore different ways to wager. Matt, I know you've liked it a lot. I've used it a lot. It that was fine with me. Um, but a great way to, uh, just explore different ways to wager. Uh, Matt, I know you've liked it a lot. I've used it a lot. It's a ton of fun. It is. And you know, as you were typing, as you were talking, I typed in, what are your favorite, uh, in their Jackson tool at fine dash sports? Uh, what are your favorite against the spread bets this week? And they coincidentally are not spit out five and one or two of them. I think I'm actually on the opposite side of a few of them, which is probably bad news for me. So we'll see.

But yeah, we're big fans. And if you sign up, I think you get, you get half off for a month. So we're, we're big fans of pine sports and thanks for yeah. Use,

use code Jeff spelled with the G E. We talked about this too. Like you can go identify player props that they project. Right. Well, one of them. Okay. So I like one of the two.

I did the same thing. Oh, they spit out four. They spit out four for me. How many did you get? Oh, no, I got seven.

I got five, but we probably asked different questions, but well, we'll, we'll, we'll be sure to, what are your favorite hands to spread bets this week? I got, I got seven, but we probably asked different questions, but well, we'll, we'll, we'll be sure to spread bets this week. I got, I got seven. I number one is my favorite.

One of my favorites. I like number five and that's about it. So geez, this is a, this is a gnarly week. And part of the reason is we've already seen, uh, what three games this week. I will say today I woke up and I was like, wait, there's not NFL football today? What's going on? And that's counterintuitive to what I

said all week where it was like, oh my god, there's Wednesday games, there's Thursday games, there's Saturday games. But today I was like, oh, I actually miss it. So I don't know. I guess this is working on me at least. Do you want to quickly talk about the three games we've seen so far this week? Maybe we can go in order and start with the Wednesday games.

The first game was Kansas City, who we would have 100% bet on against the Steelers, who seem like a dead team. You want to just sort of unload on Kansas City here? What an impressive win and season so far. We would have been 1-0. I text you that after the game. I bet on them personally. Me too.

It was one of my best bets on Vistan this week. I love the Chiefs in this spot because they wanted to win to have the 1-0. You saw after the game how excited they were to win that game because now they're off for 24 days. I know people would say they're going to get rusty. They're not going to get rusty. These guys have played 11 straight weeks, Matt.

Joe Tooney needs a break. Chris Jones, obviously, with the calf region, needs a break. Pat needs a break. Kelsey needs a break. The coach needs a break. It's been a long grind. Look, at certain times this year, I think I've been too negative on Kansas City, but I try to look at it through the lens of the high standard of repeating.

And, dude, they're playing some good football right now, man. They're two best games. I know DVOA, I think, had the Niners game up there and one other game as far as their best of the season, but, dude, they're playing some really good football right now, and what's impressive is to see the emergence of Xavier Worthy now and what he's done to the offense, and Brown adding him back in a lot.

The offense has that big play potential back, and it's important because they didn't have that last year. The defense is not as good this season. It's good enough. I mean, number one in the league in scoring. It's good enough. But now the offense adds in some explosive plays back into it. And, dude, they're going to get the winner, most likely,

of Houston and Pittsburgh in the divisional round. And they're going to get the winner of Buffalo and Baltimore. They're going back to the Super Bowl probably again for the fifth time, I think. It's like seven seasons now. So it's pretty remarkable to see sort of – look, I know our buddy Nick Wright said that they've been practicing all season. And it's such a foreign concept to the NFL because that's not the way it's supposed to work. And I think last year we thought the Chiefs were doing that, but they did kind of look kind of crappy entering the playoffs.

It wasn't their best they had looked. They look good right now. To basically just sit out for 13 weeks and decide at the end of the season to start playing better is crazy to me. I wish I bet more on Kansas City, though, against Pittsburgh. I knew they were going to boat race Pittsburgh, Matt. We all did, and they did. And so Pittsburgh is – they finished two games short of what I thought

they would be. I thought they'd be under eight wins, Matt. They might get to 11. But the Tomlin thing, man, it's so funny how people turn on them so fast. But they played this better team. These Eagles and Ravens and Chiefs 0 for three and got outscored by 50 points. Yeah. It's all the memes ever this, this last week where like the Steelers, it was just various forms of like Steelers either start hot or end hot, but no matter what, they're the five seed

and crash out in the first round of the playoffs. And,, I don't know. That's the chief's thing. I kind of want to spend another minute there. Why I have a take Jeff, I think Patrick Mahomes should win the MVP award. And I know that, you know, a lot of everybody says it's, it's going to be Josh. And then it's like, well, if it's not Josh, it's Lamar. We remember in the pandemic, when we watched that Jordan documentary of how hard it is to go for a three Pete for how much of a grind it is where you have to like show up, you know,

in Utah in April to win a game in, you know, the April, it's not right, but in March, whatever. And you know, you've you're the hunted team and everyone wants to beat you, and everyone doubts you that you can do it again. Mahomes hasn't had his best statistical season. He hasn't had the highlight throws that he had when Tyreek was there. Insert better, more explosive offense time. But the fact that he came back from that ankle injury,

won both games in the span of 11 days. And everybody says Josh Allen doesn't have all the weapons. Neither has Mahomes. They lost Pacheco. They lost Hollywood Brown. They lost Rasheed Rice. Kelsey's lost a step. They clearly are this team that just, I don't know, they have this leader that's able to get them over

the finish line every week. And I just, I feel like he's getting no credit for it. Like he's clearly the guy you'd want to have over everybody else in the league. So why isn't he a legitimate contender for the MVP award? Good question, Matt. I think people look at the cheese as a collective and it certainly was that case. And to be fair, they, they worked great on offense for half of the season.

I mean, great's a relative term, right? They have a lot of expectation. And so I think people want to give it to Josh Allen. The Lamar thing is kind of interesting, Matt, because a three-time MVP puts you in a whole different category for MVPs. And I just don't know the voters. And this is, look, the MVP award is

for the regular season. It's not for the postseason. It's not for legacy, right? It's for the regular season. I think that voters are humans. They're going to look at Lamar Jackson's playoff success

and lack thereof and say, are we giving a guy a third MVP? Has he played a Super Bowl yet? I think that matters a lot for voters. So I think it's going to be Josh Allen.

But your point is right. I mean, Mahomes is the best quarterback. If there was a best player in the NFL award, you give it to Mahomes. If it was an MVP award, maybe someone else gets it, right? Those are two different awards. But what's the difference? Like, I don't understand.

And I think that Mahomes, I think that the Chiefs are making it look easy slash harder than it needs to be. And so people are sort of like, eh, whatever. It's like, they're going to win every week.

It's like, that doesn't just happen. Like this isn't just, this is not normal. And the fact, I think especially that he came back and, you know, just like the Steelers are still the Steelers.

Like it's still a Steelers defense. They still had to go in the short week on the road and, and win this game. And it was like, there's never a single doubt at any point that they're had to go in the short week on the road and and win this game and it was like there's never a single doubt at any point that they're going to win games and I think you know it's like would you rather have Andy Reid or Kevin O'Connell like Kevin O'Connell's going to win the coach of the year award it should be Reid like the fact that they're doing this three years in a row you know it's just insane like I just don't think that they're getting any credit for it. And if anything, they're getting dinged for how consistent they are. They've lost

once in a calendar year. Yeah. And if Josh Allen wins the MVP award, the case will be, well, he beat Kansas city and he beat Detroit and it's like, okay, cool. Well, Kansas city beat 15 teams this year. Like, I don't know. I've, I had that revelation today and you know, I, well, Kansas City beat 15 teams this year. Like, I don't know. I had that revelation today, and, you know, maybe I'll be the first to say it. I don't think Nick Wright will be far behind. You're going to send this to Nick? You're going to clip it for him later? Yeah, maybe.

He'll probably agree with me. Of course. I mean, he's been right all along, man. Again, the practice thing, I just can't get my head around that sometimes. By the Chiefs, it does look like they're just sort of in you know practice mode it's a nice take um wild let's quickly talk i want to talk about houston a little so they got absolutely washed by the ravens um so where are you on cj stroud because i feel like this is one of these things

like they're going to win the division and then they're going to go and play probably pittsburgh in the playoffs probably lose and i just don't know like what a huge regression from strata and that whole offense despite collins and mixon they've been incredible so and a weak division i don't really know what's going on there well i mean the regression has been pretty pretty thorough right matt i mean it's pretty surprising he open guys. And yes, they have issues at wide receiver with injuries and they have offensive line problems. But it seems to go a little bit further than that. And look, sophomore slumps are certainly a thing and they happen, but that does feel very, very severe, right?

The sophomore slump. I didn't even get to the point where people were like, well, is Bryce Young better for the future? I think it's a little bit much. But it's been severe. It's been quite shocking. I'm not going to lie. They're the AFC South champion,

but we think they have no chance to advance past the division around. They're going to Kansas City and get smoked. So I don't see any quarterbacks like other people do, Matt, but it is rather surprising to see they haven't been able to put together all this season. His stats and Caleb Williams Williams stats are almost identical, except Caleb. So Stroud has 229 yards a game, 19 touchdowns, 12 picks, 408 sack yards, which is crazy. Caleb, 218 yards a game, same amount of touchdowns, 19, but only five picks and comparable sack

yards. So they've had the same season, but I feel like Caleb, everyone's so disappointed in him and Stroud. Everyone's like, Oh, he's still Stroud. He's fine. Um, but I, that's very concerning. Uh, maybe a little bit of uh, skepticism about that offensive coordinator in Houston, who everyone likes for a future head coach. He was going to be like the next hot coach. Wasn't he? Yeah. It was like he, I think he had interviews last year.

Oh, yeah. Yeah. And speaking of Caleb, you know, the Bears had just another brutal night last night. Obviously, like their coach is sort of figuring out how football works. God bless him. But not to make this all about the quarterbacks again,

but like I'm kind of, I'm starting to get a little worried about Caleb longterm because of the way that this season is unfolded. Like, I don't know how well you wear it. Just a 10 game losing streak or, or nine game losing streak, whatever it is.

I, it kind of reminds me of what they're doing, what, what Chicago feels like is, is like kind of what happened in Philly in basketball when they were just intentionally losing all the time. And it kind of felt like that got a little bit contagious in that locker room. And now like, you know, you see what happened

with Embiid's career. Like, I just think that this amount of losing with that much expectations is going to put a dent in Caleb long term. It's not totally his fault. I think he, you know, he's done a decent job, but like I have some real worries just like watching the way he plays like he looks miserable man so two things one is that the coaching is so bad i think we give him a tiny bit of a pass like i just want to see him with better coaching which

we do with we've seen other quarterbacks makes a big difference the the miserable thing is interesting, Matt, because he's our first Gen Z quarterback, right? And I think Gen Z individuals, they show their emotions a little bit differently than me and you and other generations. And they don't have a problem. Like they grew up in the internet era, Matt, like they grew up in this era of like just sharing all your feelings on the, all the time. And I feel like Caleb Williams is that on the field. And he did it at USC. He's done it at Chicago. And I think we're going to see more players like this now that this generation is being drafted.

But I think this is just how he grew up in a different culture than we did, Matt. Like, when I was playing football, you would never show any emotion. Only excitement. That was it. Hold it in. Hold all the emotions in

it looks like he's just sharing the emotions he would share doing other things but he's just doing on a football field and so is it leading to unproductive play i don't think so but it looks it looks bad for a lot of us that aren't used to seeing it um on the football field how do you like my gen z take i think that's a good take about that's a really good take that's the first gen z quarterback yeah well is he because like i just look he's 23 he's he just turned 23 um but it's like you know jayden daniels is almost exactly a year older and like the way that you guys played five years in college though he went to college he played five years in college i the way that the two of them, I mean, obviously, I'm laser-focused on Daniels, but when you just watch the way that he carries

himself, at the end of that Eagles game last week, you knew he was going to score. You just did. He just carried himself like that. With Caleb, it's like on fourth and five, even though he made that incredible play, it looks like he has no belief it's going to happen.

That's just, happen and that's just look that's us watching we don't know but uh it just something feels off there and i don't know if i wanted to talk about it we'll see if we'll see if ben johnson can fix it yeah we will or p carroll who knows yeah i don't think it's p carroll i don't think it's p carroll that would be incredible content mike florio had some nice thoughts on that one i don't know if he caught that back and forth that was really funny. I actually think he's right for the record on this one. He's going to immediately just, oh, the agent was pushing this probably.

100%. He's just, this is going to happen though. He's just going to tweet out that Andrew Reid's going to retire, Florio. He does every offseason, like four times in a row to make up for this. All right, Matt. I think I have us down at 35-43-2. Oh. Probably our worst year.

Oh, by far. Look, we're transparent. We share our records. We don't pass post. We don't just make up numbers like this is what we have on time recording. It's what we play. We have three Saturday games and the rest of the Sunday games. Let's get to it. In effort, it's what we play um we have three saturday games and the rest of the sunday games let's get to it in effort it's a holiday season we probably won't spend a ton of

time on some of these games matt um but i i do like some of i don't know if we'll get we'll get to five somehow so let's uh let's start this off yeah well my question jeff like how much we we gotta there's some stinkers and i think we're going to have to take one or two of these. I like one and you're not going to like it, but you might have to deal with it, but I think we, we went into the same one circled. All right. So let's start with tomorrow's game Saturday. So much football chargers at

Patriots. Patriots are getting four and a half at home. This feels like such a trap game to me, but I refuse to back the Pats. Oh, I like the Chargers here, actually. Why? Well, one of my five. The Chargers, to me, are built to play in these games where you think the weather matters.

And one of the things about the show, it's actually warm in the Northeast this weekend, and it's raining. So the idea of cold things about the show, it's actually warm in the Northeast this weekend, and it's raining. So the idea of cold-weather teams, cold-weather games, it doesn't apply this weekend. I think the Chargers,

this game feels 20 to 10 Chargers. You know what I mean? Drake May and New England had sort of their Super Bowl last weekend. They played close against Buffalo, and that was, I mean, they screwed us, obviously, in that Buffalo wager but a charger nothing for me but I think nothing is the right play here yeah this Chargers team is is so sketchy

to me like every week I just I never feel like I know it's I know what team is going to show up they've kind of been limping into the last couple weeks uh yeah I just I this this is just a hard pass for me yeah so okay let's skip that one we don't need to spend more time there Broncos-Bengals is the next game that's at 430 Eastern

seeing a 3 out there for Cincy 3 to 3.5 is the line there with the Bengals do you like a side here i mean probably bangles but i don't feel great about it uh i will say it has been better our friends at pine sports and jackson the ai tool like denver here uh the bangles own seven against teams with winning records this this season is what they note um i don't know man i think i would probably be on since he's side here but since he is is flying a little high and uh denver does have a defense that should be able to travel and handle this

i don't know this i don't really have faith in either of these teams, do you? No, no. That's why I just didn't do it. Okay. The night game is a big one for the Rams' playoff hopes. They're laying six and a half to the Cardinals. If the Rams win, then they lock up the division, right? I think so, right? Or no. They have to beat Seattle next week. they have to beat Seattle next week?

They have to beat Seattle next week. Right, right, because they both have nines. Yeah, dude. No, no, the Reds have 10 wins. They'll be one up on Seattle. Seattle played last night. But they still have to, I think, beat them in week 18 so they don't tie, essentially.

And they play each other week 18 anyways. So I think this number is way too big, Matt, for this game. Yeah, I do too. But I want to make this point that I made a little bit on other shows I've done. It's important. We talk about spoiler teams, right? This time of year, a team that's going to spoil someone.

Those teams are not the Cardinals. They're not the 49ers. They're young, up-and-coming teams like the Panthers. We'll get to that game later. They're like They're young, up-and-coming teams like the Panthers, and we'll get to that game later. They're young, hungry, up-and-coming teams. The Cardinals thought they'd be a playoff team this season. They thought they were going to do more, and they didn't.

And they're out of the playoffs. They're eliminated. They're not really a spoiler team, and the Rams got their ass beat by Arizona earlier in the season. The number, though, feels way too high, and we're going to see throughout this show when we talk about this, there is definitely a favorites inflation this weekend. The books are tired of getting hammered by these favorites,

but I don't trust Arizona, Matt, to cover this number. So I think we stay away from this game, unless you love Arizona here. To me, there's no play in this one. Yeah, I don't love Arizona. I do, I agree. It's just, it's too inflated. But the Rams are the right side.

I looked into this a little. So if the Rams win, they technically could clinch based on strength of schedule because they would get to 10 and the Seahawks. But I think then I don't think the week's 18 game could matter if like three different teams win based on strength schedule it's too complicated but uh just a strange scenario um but I do think the Rams will win uh and the Cardinals the Cardinals do look like one of those teams that could just absolutely face play and quit yeah it does feel like this is a um a teaser leg yeah oh yeah there's a lot of good teaser legs this week um okay moving on to the sunday games ugly ugly early slot on sunday uh to get some time back their families would be my advice the bills are laying 10 to the jets another huge number

um are you gonna are you gonna make the jets case I, I see the craziest look in your eyes. Oh, I'm going, I like Buffalo again. Like I did last week, Matt. Um, same thing,

right? Like the jets are dead. Buffalo played terrible against new England. Buffalo's playing for a two seat, right? They win this game. They lock up the Tuesday. I believe this is like a kitchen sink game,

right? That's like all full speed. And the jets, like, guess what? The sharps on the jets like guess what the sharps on the jets again like what a surprise um i was going to be on buffalo here again i have no problem going back to it here i think buffalo is just much better and i don't know what the jets are

playing for the jets are been bad man they're bad yeah this also could be the Josh Allen's like statement monster home win. I'm open to this. I don't love it obviously, but I'm open to it. There's we're, we're not looking at a ton of games left, so let's, let's write it down at least. Yeah.

I mean, Buffalo, like Buffalo does, they could, I think clinch the two seed with a win. Yes. So like that, you know, in a home game and then then you know next week they go away to new england so i think this could be just sort of a statement week for them so

open to this one um okay next game i think unfortunately we have to discuss it is the saints catching a point and a half at home to the Raiders. Like, I'm sorry. Why are the Raiders road favorites to anyone? Well, again, this is one of those where, you know, previous years, Matt, this one just cashes. You know, like you take the ugly side and you know, it's right and You get home with it this year. These are not cash. I'm not saying we go away from it, but you're absolutely right Why are the Raiders are favored on the road? What are they done to be a famous this line is move four and a half points off the opener. I think it's insane to say

Dude, it's because they got shut out last week and teams after getting shut out are 30 15 and 3 against the spread Which is 2 thirds of the time they cover in the last decade 30 or worse uh they're 58 since 1990 uh i just there's i just don't think that the uh the saints are just gonna be that dead and that the raiders have figured out some way to go and travel and win on the road. I kind of just feel like we have to take this one. Yeah, I'm with you. I think New Orleans is just the only one you have to take. And look, I mean, geez, I'm. We don't have to watch it.

It's not the ugliest game I like, unfortunately. Oh, man. Okay. I think that we have the same. Uh-oh. Maybe it's this one. All right. We're saying the Saints are in the mix at plus one and a half at home against Raiders. Insane.

All right. This might be it. The Giants are catching seven and a half to the Colts. This is an absolutely ridiculous number. Bad shit line. It makes no sense. It's unbelievably insane. Do you know how many passes the Colts quarterback completes

his passing percentage? Do you know like his completion percentage, Matt? It's under 50, isn't it? 47%. And he is a seven and a half point favor on the road? Man. The Giants suck.

Don't get me wrong. They're terrible. This number is asinine. It is absolutely insane, Matt. I don't care if we lose this game. We have to play the Giants plus 7.5. There's no other. I cannot let the Colts get away with this.

So give me Giants plus 7.5. It's my best bet on bare bets. I had nothing to say. All I said was this. Why is this number 7.5? I don't know. It's a favorite tax, right? The Giants got smoked last weekend.

Everyone's going to bet the Colts this weekend. So how do you not have everyone, how do you not have everyone bet the Colts? You put them in minus seven and a half. This number was high. It was like nine, Matt, earlier this week. I know. I'm trying to see actually

if we can find an eight anywhere because it was sitting, when we were texting about the games this week, they were sitting at eight, eight and a half. You told me no on this one, by the way. Yeah, I changed my mind. And the fact that it keeps nudging we were texting about the games this week. They were sitting at eight, eight. You told me no on this one, by the way. Yeah. I changed my mind. Uh,

I, and the fact that it keeps nudging in our direction is, is a good sign. It's also, I know the weather's like not that bad, but it's like an outdoor team coming East. It's a game where the Colts have to win. It seems like every year,

these teams that are in this spot always drop these games. The giants have nothing to play for. Correct. And also to win. The Colts have won seven games this year. They've won two by one point, like two by two points, a three point, a four point,

and a seven point win. A point win. You can get the Giants for plus 340 on the money line, and I really do not hate that. I think that's a pretty nice play. Oh, this number is crazy. We've saints and giants so far. Yikes.

I'm putting plus 340 in somewhere. All right. Maybe a time saver because I don't think we can stomach this one. The Panthers are going to Tampa. The Bucs are winning eight or eight and a half. Again, this is too high. This is too high. Again, it's a favorite inflation, right, for this weekend.

But Carolina is down a bunch of players. J.C. Horn's not playing. A bunch of linebackers are out. This does feel like a pretty kind of, you know, Panthers won last week and feeling good about themselves. Bucs off a bad loss. It does feel like the Bucs probably wouldn't cover. And it's a great teaser leg.

Bring it down to two. Really good teaser leg. Yeah um you you were talking i was looking at some stats this morning you're talking about anthony richardson's completion percentage uh this season baker mayfield is completing 71 of his passes isn't that crazy he's played well he's been really good he's been 50 uh 34 touchdowns 15 picks he's he's, he's had a great year. Okay. So we're going to pass on that one. Love it for the teaser. Two more games left in the early window.

Titans Jags. This is essentially a pick. Jags are laying a point. We cannot take the Titans, man. I will never, I will refuse to even consider taking either side in this. No, there's no chat. Let's let people see. It's the holiday season.

Our gift to you is to not discuss this one. You want to discuss the Cowboys and the Eagles. This one's come down. This one was 9-9.5. It's now at the Eagles 7.5. It hurts it's not playing probably. Yeah, it's interesting. So the Eagles, with the Eagles losing last weekend,

this game is essentially meaningless. I don't think they can have the one seed, Matt. They can't, I guess, if the Vikings and Lions both lose this weekend. And then even then, are they guaranteed to have the one seed with three losses? They're basically out of the one seed, Matt. They're basically locked in a three seed.

I think that's the way it's going to work out. And so why risk playing Jalen Hurts or rushing anyone back when you're locked in and you have the Giants next week? All you have to do is win one of the next two games to win the division. That's all you got to do. And you have the Giants next weekend, I believe, at home. Even on the road, there's no difference in that game.

So I think the Eagles, I don't know how much they care about this one, but you can't but but the cowboys plus seven and a half here that'd be crazy the cowboys have been playing pretty good ball like i just don't trust them at all cd lamb in this one though uh it takes a huge the only thing that's going well for them on offense off the field so yeah i think this is just a stay away and keep off the tv we have like no games to pick jesus christ there's still there's still i think a few we like there's one i like there's one i love yeah yeah all right well we'll get there uh we're moving to the late window now there's only two games at at four o'clock uh the 405 kick is miami at cleveland's cleveland catching six.05 kick is Miami at Cleveland's.

Cleveland catching six and a half. Is Miami dead yet? Are they officially done or not? No, they're not. And they beat the Niners last weekend. That was, so we did our teaser, big teaser last weekend, Matt. The last leg, we were five of six,

was Niners plus seven. And Moe Sturt scored. It's just falling down, ending the game. Yeah, HN, yep. HN, HN, i'm sorry hn um so this is not actually cold weather game they're supposed to be 55 degrees in cleveland on sunday this one those we eyed like dolphins under you know when it's cold um don't play well but i gotta think it's browns or busts right i mean this is a big number again yeah we can't play it though this this quarterback for

for cleveland's is so is is probably the worst quarterback him and jay kane are are fighting for the uh worst quarterback i've watched this year award um i just we can't back that guy but it's like this isn't even a fun teaser because it's like i i guess you want to tease this down for the dolphins but like why like no i believe in tease this down for the dolphins, but like, why? Like, this is not a teaser. Like,

yeah, this is just a stay away. All right. We've got three fun games left. The late game in the afternoon is the Packers and the Vikings, the Vikings in the mix for the one seed. They, if they win this game, then they're firmly in the mix.

The Packers just playing for seeding, but the Vikings are short home favorites minus one and a half. It feels a little disrespectful to Minnesota for me. Okay, so a lot of people feel the same way, man. I want to hear this. I'd be okay taking the Packers, but let's hear the Vikings. Their favorite one and a half

now. It has flipped, so it was. They were getting a point or two, and now it's flipped. Let's hear the Vikings. Their favorite one and a half now. It has flipped. So it was, they were getting a point or two. And now it's flipped. Let's hear the Vikings. You're watching Oklahoma. Sorry, yeah. This is bad. The Vikings have won eight straight.

They're, I mean, I just, I don't feel like they're, the market is like too high on Minnesota. If anything, I think they're kind of high on the Packers who have had these high-flying offensive games, five straight where they've scored 30-plus, no picks. The Packers have been a sneaky, lucky team to me this year, I think. They've had great turnover luck, especially on the defensive side. They're a sort of streaky team. And Minnesota is just consistent. Every single week, they do the same thing. They can score through the air.

They have an underrated ground game. They create pressure on the quarterback. Their fans are going to be absolutely crazy in this last game here. And I just think this is their chance to make a statement. And I think they're the better team. So I think catching a point and a half, that's just not... No, they're a favorite team. So I think catching a point and a half, that's just not... No, they're a favorite now. Yeah, yeah, sorry. It's a short home favorite situation.

So I guess the question... So here's one thing that I think is an anti-Packer sort of idea because I like the Packers. But I understand the Vikings take. I get it. The Packers have lost four games. It's Eagles, Vikings by two, Lions twice. So they haven't won this game this season yet, Matt,

which I think is an issue trying to back them this weekend. I'd be okay taking Minnesota as a short home favorite if you like it. We also just don't have many games left. You like this one, I think, right? I just think this is a very, like, this is a fine bet. You're right, we don't have any games left. I think I do like a side in the next two. But I think this belongs in fine bet. We, you're right. We don't have any games left. I think I do like a side in the next two, but I think this,

I think this belongs in the mix. Like, even though they've, they haven't, you know, the Packers, you're right. Have,

have, haven't lost to teams that aren't necessarily like way better than them. Like the Vikings, they win every week and they, I don't know. I just, I believe in them. I think that they can win a home game and that's basically all we're asking

them to deal. Let's, I don't know. Let's put it in the mix. I have a feeling they're going to get bumped for one of these next two. No, we only have three, buddy. No, we have Buffalo. We have the Saints. We have the Giants.

And we have the Vikings. Yes, you're with Buffalo. The Saints and Giants are in. Yeah, we'll leave Buffalo in the mix. All right. Two games left. Falcons at Commanders Sunday night football.

The Commanders are four point favorites. They clinch the playoffs with the win, I believe. It feels like it feels like a nice spot to pick

Washington, right? Yes. I like Washington a lot of this game. They are playing a rookie quarterback making its first road road start.

And everyone's going to look at that game last, and say, ooh, they won 34-7, I think it was. They had two defensive scores in Atlanta. And they were just okay offensively. The other side is people are going to say, well, Washington had a big emotional win. They're going to have a letdown. That's like a college thing.

That's a college thing. That FedEx field gets very loud. I think people don't know that because it's never really full. This is going to be a raucous atmosphere. In the rain. I think it's supposed to rain this weekend, Matt, during the game. A night game, crazy atmosphere. Michael Pennex's first

road start. It's a freaking Falcons. I tell you what, it's a Falcons. I feel great about it. So, I like Washington here, minus the format. I'm sure you do as well. Yeah. I mean, I, we've, I feel like we haven't really picked Washington much this year because I, you know, I think it's, it's been nervy for me taking them, but they've I don't know. I think, I think that they're, they're cleanly a better team here. Drake London's been banged up a bit. Marshawn Lattimore probably isn't going to play in this one.

So, you know, we'll see. But you're right. Like, Atlanta's defense played awesome at home against the Giants, who, you know, are a completely dead team, who, of course, we're betting on this week. But, yeah, I think this is a safe Washington play here. I think, yeah, you're right. The crowd's going to show up. I think this is a safe Washington play here. I think, yeah, you're right. The crowd's going to show up.

I think this is smart. Yeah. Okay, so we've got them in the mix. Washington minus four. Next one is just, we could just sharpie this next one in there. Yeah, I think so. I lost my page here. This number is actually quite surprising.

I'm not going to lie. This is the Monday night game. The Lions are three and a half point favorites on the road in San Francisco. Only three and a half? What are we talking about here? Like, this is an absolute lock for me. I'm so confused by this one. So they've given favorites inflation this weekend.

We just talked about Tampa Bay and the Colts. The Lions are like the best team in the NFL. What are they doing here? All they do is beat the bad football teams they play. The Niners guys are not very good. They're terrible. This line makes no sense, Matt. Niners have nothing to play

for. Remember, I mentioned spoiler teams, right? They're young. They're hungry. The Niners are old and beat up and tired and broken down. No playoff chance. They're hungry the niners are old and beat up and tired and broken down that no playoff change they're done the lines are playing for number one seed they're gonna roll the 49ers they lost to them in the same spot last year in the championship game they're gonna go and they're gonna roll the niners in this game yep i i completely agree that they've had this one circled all year already one and eight against the spread for seems above 500 this season uh the the 49ers have won

nine of their last 21 games like they're just they're just not the team that everyone thinks they are and detroit this is you're right this is the one where if this was like six i would still consider it so i think it's three and a half and it's moved down uh This is a lot. Don't get it. Yeah. All right. So we have four we're sure about, it sounds like. Yeah. New Orleans, the Giants, Washington, Detroit. The question becomes, do we go with Minnesota or Buffalo in that spot? Buffalo, obviously, playing a Jets team. Minnesota playing the Packers.

What do you think, man? Buffalo will win 10. I like Josh on under rush attempts, like in that game. So maybe that's the way I play that game. And we just take Minnesota who I agree with you is sort of better than the Packers a little bit better. And they also play them at home. Like it feels like that number is on neutral field.

Are we really making this game a pick? Essentially that feels a little bit too, the number feels a little off. It should be Minnesota minus three. Yeah. Maybe Vegas is telling us something there. Maybe we should ask our friends at Pine Sports here. They like Buffalo. They like Minnesota too.

Yeah, they do like Minnesota. Mainly because I think, let's see, Buffalo 30 plus an eight of their last nine games, just five and 23 and division games since 2020. That's pretty funny. Um, I don't know. I think I agree. I think I'm more comfortable with,

uh, with Minnesota at home. Yeah. Uh, 10 Vikings, 10, four and one against spread in their last 15, five and two at home against the spread.

Uh, yeah, I think, I think this is a smart play. So we have, uh, new Orleans, the giants, Minnesota, Washington, Detroit. So we have, we have three favorites this week. It's probably a good thing. She's the way favorite to covering. It's probably good. What, uh, what are new year's plans? You thing. She's the way favorite to covering. It's probably good. What, uh, what are new year's plans?

New year's plans. We've got some family in town. Uh, it's nice. We, what you grew up in California. What was your approach for the new year thing? Because I'm, I'm a lifelong East coaster moved out here.

You know, the ball drops at nine o'clock and then I'm kind of like, all right, I can go to bed now. Right? Like, I haven't stayed awake for a ball drop at in in years what we do at our house is we we do our own like we wrap a volleyball with foil and we just throw it down like from the second story of our of our house and the kids like happy new year and we're like okay time to go to bed 6 45 yeah like nighttime um yeah i mean i don don't you got a young child man you're not

staying up till midnight to watch a ball drop of course not oh ball drop the ball drop where there is a ball drop on the west coast right like what are we doing it's always done in new york yeah yeah and we used to live in new york so like you know new york new year's eve it's uh i don't know it's like the biggest amateur hour of drinking in the entire world. It's like everyone in the world goes to New York to get drunk, and it's this crazy night. And those days are over for me. An old friend of ours, Mr. Dan Ravelle, his office building in New York City, his new office, has a direct view of the ball drop.

Like, I could, if I ever want to go, I could just be like, yo, can I just watch a ball from your office? He could probably sell tickets from his office for that ball drop. My wife has always wanted to do that. Just, it's very, very expensive, and I don't think it's worth the money to just watch a ball drop,

Matt. I don't think it's worth it. No. No, it's not. No, it's definitely not um Oklahoma here by the way down seven they had a fourth and 17 but pass interference on Navy balls at 10 now no time outs um and touchdown Oklahoma now do they go for two the answer is yes it's a freaking bowl game all right we gotta stay on while this happens here. Matt, yesterday was an absolutely

asinine... I used that word twice today. I'm sorry. So Pittsburgh was playing their bowl game against someone yesterday, Toledo. And the rule in the second overtime, you have to go for two. And then after that, the third or fourth, fifth overtime or whatever is only

2.5 in the three-yard line. So it's fourth and one, Pittsburgh's down by three. So Toledo already went, kick the field goal. Fourth and one at the one. Your options are go for it to win the game at the one, or kick a field goal, tie the game, go over from the

three and get a stop from the three. So, of course, the answer is go for it from the one. Like, win the game, go over from the three and get a stop from the three. So of course the answer is go for it from the one, like win the game from the one. Nope. They, they, they, they kicked a field goal. Coward, cowardly decision. Oklahoma's going for this. Good for Oklahoma. Good for Oklahoma.

Let's see what happens. Yeah. I'm on, I'm on YouTube TV. So, um, I hope that, uh, I have, uh, I have a little bit of tiny, tiny sprinkle on Oklahoma Moneyline. Okay. Give us the update. Give us the play-by-play. Well, it's a timeout.

You and I were the only people in sports media not on the Netflix broadcast, so why don't we see if we can handle the next years? The RG3 thing, do not get it. But I'm not in charge of the decision- for that um love rg3 oh did you podcast with him can i not say that no no i just he brought me some nice memories so i you know i was on the vikings team in 2012 with a 75-yard touchdown run and at fedex that's a lot of i think there's a lot of single moment I've ever heard in any stadium in the NFL. My take for you, Jeff, is that outside of Stafford, Jaden Daniels is the best quarterback in the NFC now.

What do you think of that take? Oh, no, throw the ball. He didn't throw the ball. You can't take a sack. You took a sack on the two-point? Yes. Oh, buddy. Oh, buddy. Oh, buddy.

Immediately check the balance. Oh, I don't think I've ever watched you lose a bet live before. I mean, I've read your texts as they've happened, and we've lost together collectively. All right. I think that's our time. i think that might be this well it was a show to end dude it was it was half a unit it's almost like it would lose a lot of dollars uh no a little more than that now um but uh still i don't like losing bets who wants to lose a wager no of course not yeah um all alright guys well hopefully we don't lose any wagers this weekend we'll talk to you guys next

week have a good new year happy Hanukkah happy holidays and oh my tree's on the side of the road already if you're curious nice oh great nice alright guys have a good weekend peace see you next year. you