Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Week 17 Reactions and NFL Week 18 Best Bets

Episode Date: January 3, 2025

Geoff is back with another episode of Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. On today's show, Geoff and Matt recap week 17 of the NFL. Plus, a look ahead into week 18 of the NFL with Geoff's Best Bets.Be sure to follow the pod to get notified when a new episode drops each week, and follow @GeoffSchwartz on Twitter/X for more NFL and CFB comments. Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You will be live streamed on Twitter/X and YouTube every Friday all season long.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

It's Friday, January 3rd. I'm Jeff Schwartz. That is Matt Ford. This is Jeff Schwartz of Smarter Than You. As we barrel into Week 18 of National Football League, Matthew, we have to come up with five wagers we like on a week when there's like four teams playing for something. So we'll try to do our best.

As usual, we are presented by Pine Sports. Go to pine-sports.com. Stop, subscribe, put in Jeff. It's a fantastic tool. It's an AI tool that's modeled around wagering, and you can ask advice for it. You can ask gambling picks. It does props, all those things. Matt, I know we have used it to do research the last couple of shows.

It paid off. We were 4-1 last weekend, Matt. We're so close from being back to 500, which doesn't make anyone any money. It doesn't really lose anyone any money. It's kind of in the middle. Not great, not terrible, not good, but we get back to 500. We can at least say we had a respectable year, Matt. That's right.

In a historic year for the public where the favorites win every week. Oh, it's insane. We'll take 500. Let's run through that tape, buddy. We can do this. I like our chances this week. There are a few games that I do like real quick. Tough day for your Oregon ducks yesterday.

I'm, it was so sad. I can't even really give you too much shit about it, but you know, I, I should obligatorily roast you, I guess, or a no show by your ducks. Was it a no show? Did we get our asses just kicked? I mean, it was like that sort of, they can both be true, I think. But yeah, I mean, Ohio state, dude, I mean mean that jeremiah smith kid i mean six four there was a play he had he got triple teamed they made this catch and um no we got our ass kicked um i mean

it it sucks it is what it is um but i mean i you either grow from those or you don't right ohio state's really talented we We beat them the first time. It's kind of funny. There's four teams left in college football. We beat two of them. We beat Penn State and Ohio State. Just couldn't get it done in this current format that we're in. And that's the way football works sometimes, right?

We have to go through Ohio State at some point. We got them off a bye. You know, all four teams on a bye loss, Matt. And it's kind of interesting as we head into this National Football League weekend where a lot of teams will rest to get ready to play the next weekend. You know, this is a lot of time off, right, for Oregon or for Georgia.

Now, all four teams with a buy-loss for different reasons. Two were big underdogs, right, Arizona State and Boise State. One was, I think Georgia might have closed a favor at a pick-em-ish, but they had their backup quarterback, right, who clearly looked like the backup, you know, they missed Carson Beck, and then Oregon just got their butt steamrolled. I'm not sure a bye would have mattered or not.

But, you know, this weekend for National Football League, Matt, teams have to figure out, are we resting? Are we not? Now, it's one week off, right, because everyone but Kansas City, and we'll find out Sunday night who wins the NFC, we'll get a bye next week in the wildcard round. So it does change how we wager on these games, which is going to be interesting because I don't know what to do, Matt.

Every team's playing this weekend. There's some wild spreads. There's some quarterbacks playing. There's quarterbacks not playing. So as we approach this weekend, how do you feel about wag playing this weekend. There's some wild spreads. There's some quarterbacks playing. There's quarterbacks not playing. So as we approach this weekend, how do you feel about Wager on this weekend? This is the hardest weekend of the year, I think, other than that one random week every year where we all get steamrolled. Usually for us, that's week two.

So, yeah, I mean, it's tricky. There are enough sort of games that are open this weekend that the outcome does matter to the team playing. But that's a little bit deceiving. We were just talking about this before we got on the air. This is sort of a buyer beware situation. Teams since 1990 eliminating eliminated teams that need playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 60% against the spread. So basically that means that like the Panthers might cover against the Falcons in a game that means nothing to the Panthers and means everything to the Falcons. So beware. Um, I'm certainly nervous, but there are a few, I like Jeff. So I feel like we can, we can get our

five and oh, this week and get to 500. Well we need it are we starting matthew with the uh with with the 20 points the browns are getting into the ravens and we are 20 points uh in baltimore saturday at 4 30 eastern it's it's crazy but i mean if it's if it's DTR playing, I feel like the number's fair. Well, DTR's not playing though, right? They're putting in Bailey Zappi to play quarterback. Zappi might be an upgrade. But 20 is... There ain't no chance we're touching this game, Matt. I took the Browns over three and a half wins,

and they had one win, and Watson was announced that he was out for the season. They won the first game. The MVP to Steelers a couple weeks later, Matt, stuck at three wins. They've lost five in a row, and they haven't even been close to any single game. So, no, right? I will tell you one wager I made in this game.

How about this? Derek Henry needs one more touchdown. Yes. For 500,000 yards for $500,000. Anytime touchdown is this morning minus 260, I took it at minus 230. I don't care. He's going to get a score touchdown.

Like, he's going to score a touchdown, and then they might take him out of the game. He will get a touchdown in this game. I'm going to catch that minus 230. Okay. Just, I want to make this point. Buyer beware on all these guys chasing statistical milestones for bonuses, Matt, because they have to be part of the game plan.

Like I say, like, like, Corton Sutton needs a certain amount of yards. Well, they're trying to win the game. They're not trying to get Sutton to ball as much as possible. If it happens, it happens. So you have to find certain situations, like Geno Smith needs 200 yards for $2 million. He's the quarterback.

He's in charge of that. He will try to make that happen. Don't just wager on these incentive-based props, essentially, because you think that's going to happen. It actually has to happen, Matt. There has to be a tangible reason for it to occur. Derrick Henry's a tangible reason. They're the favorites. They're going to run the football. He's going to play. They have to be a tangible reason for it to occur derrick henry's a tangible reason they're the favorites they're going to run the football he's going to play they have to win to win the nfc north like all the reasons why it's going to happen are right in

front of you so i have derrick henry anytime touchdown yeah he's he's one of the big ones mike evans gets three million dollars if he gets 85 more receiving yards and that would also get him a thousand yards so that one is another lock i don't have that number in front of me but there is a list of these player incentives henry uh tony pollard has one mixon has one like keep your eye out for those because it does feel like as as the years have gone on the teams are more cognizant of that uh which is funny because it's like the owner are they like rooting for that i don't know um all right a team uh with two teams well one team with a lot of incentive is the bangles going to pittsburgh the bangles are road favorites

in pittsburgh pittsburgh that must have nothing to play for them they must be locked into their scene i guess at the five they're not no if baltimore baltimore wins they are though if baltimore wins no no no no if the chargers win and Steelers lose, Chargers are five, Steelers are six. Got it, okay. And Steelers are much better to play the Texans, I would imagine, than play the Ravens, essentially. Yeah. So why are, so, I mean, obviously the Bengals need to win this

to have a chance to get in. But this, I didn't realize the Steelers had anything to play for. Is this a possible Steelers spot here? have a chance to get in but this i didn't realize the stealer said anything to play for is this is this a possible stealer spot here um they're just so they're so um they're just i feel like we got are we really gonna go back to them after the way we watch them play there i have some extra rest matt which is good but but yikes, man. I don't know if I could do it. It's probably the right side, but I don't know, man.

I'm not into it. Let's pass it. I don't want to go against Burrow in this spot. Right. All right. We can save time probably on Bill's Patriots. Patriots are only two and a half point home dogs. We have no idea who the Bills are playing.

Okay. So this is funny, Matt. The Bills are playing their backups. Josh Allen's going to snap the ball and leave the field because he is a streak of starts. And they're locked in the two seed. So the Bills are going to play their backups. And New England's still a dog in this game,

which is super funny. New England is playing Drake May. They're playing to win this game, Matt. It's fairly interesting. I don't think it's a complete pass. I'll put it like that on this one. Hmm. Okay.

I mean, I just think New England, if they're trying to win this game, Buffalo does not care. They don't care. They're locked in the two-seed, man. That's it. I'm just saying, if we don't have five, this is one to come back to later.

Hmm. Interesting. That's it. That's it i'm just saying it's if we don't have five this is one to come back to later interesting that's it okay well let's write it down uh we're gonna need we're gonna have to pick something we don't love i know um how about this one jeff i think this is one that's gonna we're gonna unfortunately have to take the texans are at the titans the texans do have nothing to play for but the Titans are favored by one and a half um I I think we have to take the Texans here because I do think that the Texans like they it's true they have nothing to play for but they do kind of like need to play a decent game agreed they're not going to be resting people right or maybe they are but like they are not going to be resting them though I don't think they're going to be resting them the whole game i would imagine um i i don't think they can afford to do that because of how they played their last game they lost 31 to 2 the last time they played right it sounds yeah it seems like they're going to make some some starters are

going to play dameco ryan said that uh we'll see how the game goes it seems like the reporters are saying that it seems like this the starters will get some reps so i mean i don't know i mean the titans have have reason to lose they could they could lose this and potentially get the number one pick so i think that that Houston could use this one, and I have no problem taking them here. Okay, Houston plus 1.5. I agree with you. If the starters play three quarters, they're going to win this game.

In the fourth quarter, we really think that Will Levis and Mason Rudolph are taking the Titans down the field to cover a game. I don't think so. And remember, too, guys, when you sit starters, I'm at this point, sorry to interrupt you, when you sit starters, it's just a handful of players. Right. Like, everyone else still has to play.

So it's not, so I won't make that point. It's just, it's some, not all. And that's, so like if they, you're going to sit probably, you know, you're going sit probably um you know you're gonna sit seven eight guys so like yeah and a couple wide receivers and tons so like you're not so so just be it's not everyone's like cultural when you have a line change so i like that man i i put that in the maybes i like that i didn't thought about that one yeah i think that makes sense um and yeah their backups can probably still beat the titans uh all right the other afc south game

god the jags and the colts we never have to watch these teams again this year i'm so excited yeah just just don't even worry don't even bother you can say the one if you would like but yeah colts four and a half no idea colts are a dumpster fire uh some real interesting comments out of there uh commanders at cowboys uh this was at four four and a half now it's at six six and a half uh that is a that is a hard pass for me okay uh on the washington side yeah i'm not thinking of cowboys either right yeah i mean mccarthy's contract is up in like 11 days i haven't re-signed them yet not great if anything you take dallas at six and a half, but I don't know.

Is that even worth considering? No. Okay. I don't think so. Pass. Saints, Bucs, Bucs laying 14. Win in their end and possibly as high as the three seed. Seems like a high number, and a pro would probably say take the Saints here,

but I don't know if I can do it. It seems like a high number, and a pro would probably say take the Saints here, but I don't know if I can do it. The Saints lost to the Raiders last weekend 25-10. We before they lost 34-0. The Bucs have to win this game, by the way, to win the division. They have to win this game by the way to win the division like they have motivation in this game yeah things are outside teams with nothing to play for cover 60 of the time in this spot because because the numbers get so big that's why yeah like 14 i don't want to do this i don't either i mean there. There's a couple other teams I think you could grab that are covering points in this game,

that are getting points a chance in some other games. Yeah, all right. Let's leave that one. I think. Panthers-Falcons, I think, is another one we can leave. Falcons getting a lot of buzz after a nice showing last week, but I don't trust them to lay eight to you. Don't we take Carolina here?

Okay, talk to me. Well, so here's why. One is the Panthers got their ass kicked last week. And typically we see when you get your ass kicked the next week, you come back a little bit better. But the Panthers are one of those teams, Matt, that is a spoiler team, right? Because they're young and hungry.

They're trying to win each game. They're playing for something bigger than obviously the playoffs this year. They're going to give their best effort this weekend the Falcons obviously have to win this game um but Falcons laying eight feels like way too many points this one so I I'm I'm okay taking the Panthers in this one I mean it's not my favorite but I think it's worth putting in the maybe category I'm fine with that I'm fine with at least considering them I agree Panthers Panthers have been feisty.

Why not here? There is going to be a team that face plants this week, and it's going to be either the Bucs or the Falcons. Probably going to be the Falcons. So, yeah, I'm fine with that. All right, we've got that as a strong maybe. Bears-Packers. Packers lay in 10.

They are playing. If they win, they could maybe get to six if Washington loses. Bears, nothing to play for. No. No, I can't. I don't know. It'd be the Bears, but no chance. What a great podcast episode.

Everyone's doing the same thing this week. This is a tough week. Sure. I even looked at what Raybon and those guys are doing over there in action. I'm kind of curious now because the same job as us, got to put in picks. I wonder if anyone's taking back in the Browns plus 20. I'm going to guess Stucky's on the Browns.

Let me guess that. No, he's not. All right. What do we got for next game here? Giants-Eagles. Do we like anything here? No Saquon, obviously. Much talked about. Eagles laying two and a half or three at home nothing to play for at all for either side here

basically the giants last week felt the giant super bowl like that was like the drew lock game like that was like i actually think i think philly would be a player more than anything else yeah I mean is who's the quarterback for this is it Pickett or is it the other guy oh Tanner McKee

I don't know yeah third third string quarterback good lord man this is such this is such a tricky week

it's like who's playing why would they play I don't think I have play uh i don't think i have a site i don't think i want to do this one do you no but we're running out of uh we've there's at least there's at least one or two more i like there's two there's actually three i like i believe okay great but is this one of them this is slotted into the late window now chargers raiders um the raiders are getting four and a half at home. Chargers playing for seeding.

Everyone, 90% of the money on the Chargers this week. My goodness. Oh, I mean the number moved a point. There's even a four out there right now. Is that

the sound of you making the case for the Chargers? Again, is Harbaugh going to rest guys or not? I don't know, man. What's your... This is such a brutal week to be doing this. My God.

Yeah, I don't know, man. I think we should i i would pass this one um there's okay these two games i have something to say about next one is the seahawks at the rams uh the seahawks laying six and a half there's some discussion about the rams links or playing not playing their starters well they're not they're not playing stafford they're not playing stafford i like seattle minus six and a half. Terrible number. Really bad.

We missed this one big time. I have Seattle plus two, personally. So I'm, yeah. Okay, so this is going to be the first one we actually put into the yes category. So I know it's a bad number, but here's a couple things why I think this is a Seattle play.

One is the Rams are going to rest their starters. They do not care about being a third or fourth seed. They do not care. They'd rather get guys healthy, make sure Stafford's ready to roll. And when the Rams sort of don't care, like in the preseason, Matt, they're like, don't score points. They just do not care, right? Because you're not going to play Cooper Cup or Pukunukua or Kyron Williams.

Those guys are not going to play. Why would you play them if Stafford's not going to play Cooper Cup or Pukunukua or Kyron Williams. Those guys are not going to play. Why would you play them if Sanford's not going to play? Seattle has, well, Geno Smith has millions of reasons to win this game. One, get to 10 wins, he gets $2 million. Two, he gets 168 more yards, he gets $2 million. Three, I think he sets his completion percentage, best of his career. I don't know if he can do this. I haven't looked that up.

He gets an extra $2 million. So Seattle's going to probably win this game. Plus, if you're Mike McDonald, it's a first-year coach, yes, you're out of the playoffs, but winning 10 games is a big accomplishment. And so, look, you got to lay six and a half. I get it, but come on. I mean, 24-10, like, you know, 24-7,

it does feel like I'm uncomfortable taking Seattle here. Yeah, dude, i like it i am it's too bad we missed this number but agreed uh if stafford's not playing that's just going to trickle down so he's not they said he's not by the way yeah no yeah and we've all seen what jimmy garoppolo is i think i think it's very interesting the rams are not interested in playing for the three seed uh and potentially might have to play Detroit in a week coming off a loss. Like that's, that's very risky, but this is what McVay does. So yeah, it makes sense. All right. Moving to the next late game. The dolphins are at the jets. This is Huntley and

the dolphins playing at the jets. The jets are actually getting a point this week. And Jeff, I hate to tell you that I think we have to take the Jets this week. Oh, no. I like the Dolphins. Why? You like the Dolphins? You like the Dolphins in a must-win game playing outside in the freezing cold without Tua against the Jets? Yeah, dude.

The Jets. This is such a classic Aaron Rodgers spot. Dude, this is such a classic Aaron Rogers spot, dude. This is such a classic Aaron Rogers. So bad. Let me tell you, this is, he said, Oh, this might be my last game. I don't know. Like there would be nothing more Aaron Rogers than winning this game, setting the team back like five in the draft order, beating the dolphins who actually do have something to play for. And Rogers is like walking out into this into the sun sunset with a win that means absolutely nothing but kills the jets and the dolphins at the same time it's just it's just perfect i mean all right well we'll put the maybes i guess you trust the

dolphins to go win a game in 30 degree weather on the road when they need it there's no chance i guess i don't. Without Tua. They don't win games without Tua. That's a good point. All right. We'll put the Jets down as a maybe. This is also the first week that the sports books are not on the side of the Jets.

They're like, for once, they're like, we're done with this team. So that means they're finally going to cover one. I believe in the Jets this week for some reason. It goes back to that 60% thing. cardinals pointless game uh cardinals laying for pass nothing pass all right uh a seemingly pointless game the chiefs uh are at denver the broncos are laying 10 and a half. Shall we? Are we doing this? With what side? KC. Yeah, I know.

It has to, right? It has to. I actually think this isn't a bad play. KC, what is it? 10 and a half now? Yeah. Yeah. It's too many points.

It's just too many points. They've been in this spot before, right? Yeah, yeah. And they're going to play hard. they're going to try to play to win because why not and the Broncos I don't think are that like here's also here's the reason why too I'll give you two reasons why one is that like if the Broncos get up 10 points in the fourth quarter

they're just running the football like they're not going to risk throwing the football all they need is a win 7 points 8 points and the Chiefs're not going to risk throwing the football. All they need is a win. Seven points, eight points. And the Chiefs are just going to run the ball, too. They just want to get out of there. They're not going to play all the starters.

Everyone will be very happy if this was 17-10 and you went home with a 17-10 win. Perfectly, for both sides, perfectly done. By the way, Chiefs news. Jalen Watson, who is one of their better corners, got her against the Niners. He's back at practice today. This is a huge deal for the Chiefs defense, Matt. They've been so bad,

not so bad, but worse defensively without him in there. If he's back in there, they're winning the Super Bowl. The offense has gotten better. This makes the defense whole. Very interesting development there in Kansas City. So Kansas City plus 10.5. We have Seattle, Kansas City so This makes the defense whole. Very interesting development there in Kansas City. So Kansas City plus 10.5.

We have Seattle, Kansas City so far as the yeses. I think we've got more than that. We've got Houston, and I think we've got the Jets. Well, I mean, you have the Jets. Well, we have Houston. I think we like Houston. Okay, Houston's in, yes. This is also a spot.

I mean, Andy Reid has been in this situation so many times in this in this spot uh and the chiefs have won these games outright even with backups this was the the game mahomes came in this first start actually and played this game against denver in the last week of the season so uh it wouldn't be shocked if the chiefs play well here and by the way like they're chiefs backups carson linds carson. They're still going to play a lot of guys on the lines and stuff. So I like the Chiefs to spoil Denver. And then the only really good game of the week is the Vikings at the Lions. Sunday night, you've got two and a half or three here for the Lions at home.

We should at least discuss this game, even if we don't have a side. I like Vikings plus three. I like them a lot, Matt. A couple reasons why. A little bit of it might be my personal bias against Dan Campbell's actions on Monday night. He should not have played the starters. There's no plausible excuse or reason or whatever he wants to say. Oh, it was unfair to the starters. There's no plausible excuse or reason or wherever he wants to stay.

Oh, it was unfair to the backups. Since when do you care? Anyone care about the backups? I was a backup half my career. No one cared about the backups. They should not apply to the starters. Matt, they got home about Tuesday at 6 a.m. Like they're a day and a half behind the Vikings in just recovery and preparation. And they might get Anzalone back on defense, but their defense is awful. It's not good. How are they going to stop Minnesota in this game?

I don't know. I like my team total over 27 and a half, by the way. It's the best bet of mine this week. I don't know how they stop them at all. I think the Vikings are a better team right now with the Lions beat up on defense so i get three points and against the team can't play any defense matt um i'll take minnesota plus three uh i'm i'm into this uh campbell on short rest uh has been has not been great i just lost the stat he's two and four straight up at home three and eight uh straight up period on short rest uh i i think minnesota we had an interesting conversation about

minnesota last week you kind of i feel like we're you you like green bay i liked minnesota yeah and i think you've come around i think you've come around on them yeah yeah i have yeah i think you've come around on them. Yeah. I have. Yeah, I think you have to. I mean, and here's the thing, too, about them is, like, they win different ways, too, which is important. Like, they have different paths to win. Like, they've won different ways this season. They've won low-scoring games. They've won high-scoring games.

They've won games they've been behind. Like, I think they're did a very complete team so um i uh i'm fine with minnesota here plus the plus the three would it be interesting if rams lions again is a first round matchup next year it's very possible i actually think the loser of this game loses the wild card game interesting this is a thing about like, you go from, especially for the Lions, you've been the one seed basically for eight weeks now. The whole season, yeah.

And you lose at home to Minnesota. You have to regroup, go on the road to play the Rams who can sling the ball on offense. To play Matthew Stafford, of all people. I think it's just, you know minnesota i think it's just for either team they're really tough all-car weekend so all right so matt we have seattle kansas city houston and minnesota i have nothing else i like we're taking the jets we're taking the jets oh lord help me we're taking that you that game's

gonna start and you're gonna be like this is a great play i promise you the jets oh lord help me we're taking that you that game's gonna start and you're gonna be like this is a great play i promise you the jets blow like they do every week but they this is also the week for the like the jets are all talking dj reed was was saying he can't wait to be a free agent like this is a good week for him to put down some good tape there's a lot of guys who want to put down some good week 17 tape week 18 tape to get the hell out of there you're shaking your head you can make the case for the panthers or the patriots or no no we we have a rule in this show that i try to adhere to that if i don't like i don't really like anything else that if you love something and your intuition you're part of the

show like you you can you know you have picks you win you picks you picks, you win, you picks, you lose. Same as me. Um, you know, if you love the jets, I'll put the jets. I don't like anything else. I have no other, I have no other inclination. So let's do it,

man. If you love the jets. Okay. So, um, see Seattle, Kansas city, Houston,

Minnesota jets. I don't know. We need it. Let's go. All right, buddy. I have more work to do. I'd love to stay in the chat with you.

But my work is calling. We've got the whole playoffs. My work is calling. We'll have the whole playoffs. I think we're going to do, I was thinking about this the other day. I think we'll do what we did last year, where we just, we'll do like our top six. We'll do five wagers. We'll tier them.

Oh, yeah. We'll do the draft. Yeah, a draft of wagers. We'll do that for props and sides and whatnot for the wildcard weekend division around. You may or may not be in New Orleans, I think. Have you gotten there yet? Are you in New Orleans?

I don't know yet. You are, right? I think I am, yeah. Of course, same as you. They'll tell us the day before we're going to New Orleans. Yeah, that's right. Yeah. So what show would you go there for?

I'm not sure yet honestly it depends yeah well obviously what happened new orleans uh last couple days is horrific we wish everyone yes um recovery and thanks for mentioning thoughts and prayers and um just terrible i mean just terrible um so but we will uh i'll be there for super bowl um you might be there for Super Bowl you might be there for Super Bowl it'll be fun to have a little in person we'll just we'll do what we did the first time we ever met let's do a hotel room like collab with like one camera

should I wear a hundred shirts you should wear a hundred shirts alright everyone enjoy the show happy new year everyone pine-sports.com slash subscribe promo code Jeff it's worth it. We got our first subscriber. Thank you, by the way, whoever that was.

It was one of our parents. Really appreciate it. We'll talk to you guys next week, everyone. See you, buddy. Outro Music