Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Week 2 NFL Betting Show

Episode Date: September 18, 2026

Geoff reunites with Producer Matt to seek an elusive 5-0 week... or at least not go 0-5.

It's Friday, September 18th. This is Schwartz football show. It's our favorite show of the week. Well, for Matt and I it is. It is our gambling show. We go over all the NFL games, review Thursday, get to Friday. We talk about all the games

and we try to pick our five favorite of the week, Matt. Good news, great news, bad news. I don't know how you want to put it, but two and three last week without you, which is better than our normal O and five every week one. So we're on the right track, buddy. How are we doing? We are lying with the two and three.

start, Jeff. We are cooking with the two and three start. We're two games above where we usually are by week two. That's a great start by you and Mr. Hill. Great to see you. Thanks for the one. There was a review that someone left, I think it might have been on YouTube,

that said, you know, you've been doing the show with your brother Mitch, all pro right tackle, protected Patman Holmes, won a Super Bowl. But there's someone out there in the comments who missed this, who was like we need more Matt back on the show, and it was not my mom who made that review. It was definitely not.

It was me. It wasn't any of my friends. It was a real person, maybe. So thank you to that guy. And for you, like, welcome back. It's Christmas. I'm here. We're glad to have you here.

Hopefully our record goes up like the gas prices. Just continue to go up and up and up until we get to a point where we can declare victory on our picks, buddy. I guess, I guess I have not much to add to that. Let's go. Jeff is slowly going to turn this into a political take show one. little nuts at the time. It's been so long. I haven't been able to throw a random political joke at you in a long time.

So I've been itching to do that. And so we did it. We're back. That's what people wanted. The review is we want you guys to laugh more. So we laughed more. And hopefully we don't laugh at our picks this week. We're doing the same thing we do every week, right?

We're going to go through all the games. We're going to pick our five favorites of the week. It's always tough in week two because there's a lot of overreactions in one direction, Matt. And we're going to try to get our. five favorite of the week. But quickly, the Buffalo Bills, look like the best team of all time. Are we falling the trap again?

What could go wrong? We're falling the trap again of September champions. As Nick Ray has declared now five years in a row, back to back to back to back to back, September champions, the Buffalo Bills. Yeah, I mean, solid win. All the smart guys like the under, so there was a bet I lost.

I thought, I don't know. I mean, I'm curious what you thought. I mean, to me, this, I just remember week two, Thursday night football last season. That was when Washington season fell apart playing Green Bay. Daniels got injured. Austin Ackler was injured for the season that game. It was just like a, it was just a schedule loss. Like if you go on the road in week two on Thursday night football against like a really good team,

like last year at Green Bay this year, Buffalo, like, it's just a tough draw. And for Detroit, like the fact that they had to win by that crazy two point like overtime home game last week against Shuck last. Like they're so close to Owen, too. So that I think was more my takeaway than like a nice schedule spot for Buffalo. You know, they look great, but curious what you thought. Well, I think a couple of years are. I think Buffalo's offense looks really good. And that's certainly true and fair.

But also the lions are atrocious on offense. I mean, defense. There was a point in that game, the last 10 drives, okay? The Saints scored touchdown, touchdown, missed field goal, touchdown. That's how the last six went in that game. And the first four drives in this game for the Lions defense, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown. So the line's defense is in a world to hurt, Matt. It's in a bad place, right?

And we'll get some guys back eventually. But it's eight and Hutchinson or nothing. And it's just not good right now. And I think their window has closed, man. Like, it's what happens, right? It closes super fast and feels like it closed. Ben Johnson, or sorry, Dan Campbell with Ben Johnson, 36 and 15 without him 13, 13, 22. and one.

There's no questions there. You know, he had two, he had two future head coaches on his staff. It's just the, man, the NFL, dude,

and it's such a fine line. Like, one day you're on top of the worlds and then your coordinators leave and all of a sudden you can't win games. It's just, it's just really bizarre. But,

uh, I don't know. I think Buffalo looks great, you know, like I think the DJ more injury is, is a bit of a concern. Obviously, we'll see what happens there.

Got a long week to recover. But nice, I mean, fun game. A lot of offense so far this year. I feel like that's been the big thing is like, even though I feel like everyone's running a ball more, it's just been a points explosion to start the air.

I wanted to match on the game last night. I didn't love anything. So I teased the under with the Bears, Vikings under. That did not win. That was a loss. Already cooked. I will say something about these up,

I've started to dabble in the prediction markets a little bit. You can, the live spreads are actually pretty good. Like, you can pretty much, if there's, during these NFL games, at least in the first couple weeks, I've been able to bet live,

basically like a half point more than the current score. So last night, the Lions were around 10, I got them plus 10 and a half at like, you know, 50% or whatever. Week one, I did that. I did it like two or three times. You have to pay a little, a little bit of the vague that I can't really figure out

in this new platform, but. Don't they take a percent? Isn't it a big just a percent, like if you bet $100 on something or isn't your wage of being like $99 and, 50 cents, something like that. Yeah, I mean, I don't want to totally get on my soapbox. And by the way, if there is a prediction market that wants to sponsor the show,

I will learn it and evangelize for you. I have no shame about that. I'm sure Jeff doesn't either. I spent so long learning how to sports bet. Like, how many years did you just like make bad bets and learn and like understand all these props and markets and whatever are just to now be like, well, I don't know what the hell I'm doing? It's like, what happened?

idea you know the okay here's my my I don't use pretty much I started working with underdog a little bit on a radio show so I've used them a lot more last couple weeks and you know the thing is like the player prop having to put them together kind of frustrates me like you to parlay all the player props so confusing yeah um but the one thing I've never understood about using some of the other ones is like I I let's say I would um I let's say I put a hundred dollars on something right and it was at 70% happening okay and it goes up to 75% and my cash out's like $87. I'm like, wait.

Should I have more value on the wager? Because I, but because more money's coming in the market, I think it devalues my position, correct? Because you're not betting against the book. You're, you're taking wages against other people. So if I bet $100 into a $1,000 market, I don't know, I'm just making numbers up. And now the market's at $2,000.

I think my share gets diluted essentially, right? Because it just, it makes no sense to take something at 70%. It's now has a 75% chance of hitting. and my cash out $17 less. It's very confusing. I'm having a hard time with it. I feel like I'm winning more bets right now, but that could just be,

that could be very temporary, knock on something. But yeah, I don't know. It's sort of like, it's, I forget what comedian makes the joke about, like it was more fun when weed was just illegal.

And now you can just like walk in and just whatever. Like there's something that's been lost in some ways, even though there's more opportunity. And it's clearly a better overall. experience like in California I can I can bet on sports now or trade on sports I should say but yeah super interesting uh why don't we get to speaking of bets and trades why don't we get to week two's games here Jeff um first game this is interesting browns bucks this one is being played actually in the straight of Hormuz did you know that browns browns at bucks the bucks

are laying eight and a half points uh in the straight no the browns weirdly are in florida for the second straight week, which is tough in September. Major disadvantage there, I would think. Brown's a totally lifeless last week in the Bucks and a half. Okay. So here's, I'm going to start my rant on NFL sides. Okay, ready, Matt? Let him cook.

So we see this every year, but I feel like there's just no rules anymore. There's no rules anymore. Nothing whatsoever. All the public big favorites, man, they cover 70% of the time. Now, like there's no, the Chargers did not cover last week, but Jacksonville covered. Pittsburgh covered a terrible number. I just saw a bunch of Pittsburgh minus sixes on Sunday from people. Like, it was three, four days ago, one by seven.

Like, these sides are covering, like last night, huge, everyone was on the bills last night, easily covered. I just feel like taking the box. That's my, that's my point. Like, Tama base, I mean, the, the, the, what you would call it? The Browns absolutely are horrendous, dude. And that game last week between the Bucks and Bengals was a little misleading. The Bucks had the ball, I think, like 11 times, fumbled four times, scored in the other seven drives.

They were fine. They just didn't fumble the ball. So I think just the Browns are so bad, dude. Like, what is the case for the Browns here? That they just, it's week two. And there's a lot of numbers that show that in week two, if you get blown out on week one, you typically play much better on week two. There is a couple sides I like sort of with that thought process.

But I don't know, man. I mean, I'm sort of just like bet against the terrible teams every week. It seems to work. It's been working for years now. Yeah. I'm with you. I think this is a tricky one because of the number. It's eight or eight and a half.

I think I saw eight and a half. Maybe we can shop around because we are unaffiliated and seeking sponsorship. If anybody's interested. Eight and a half is what I'm looking at on site I'm on. Yeah, I'm with you. It's like, this is not complicated. Interesting, Tyson Campbell popped up on the injury report. This could be the game Baker just like gets it going.

I feel like if you're going to do it, you're going to lay it with Tampa here. Just a bunch of more like little offensive line injuries for Cleveland's the outside in September thing. Are they just, are they just don't give a shit because Watson's playing and they hate Watson, which is also a possibility. it is very possible you know i don't think they're trying to save his job bucks haven't covered in 10 straight games how crazy is that wow i don't know that yeah going back into last season they were so hot and then they just didn't cover down the stretch and then it extends into this year so this is like putting a lot out of faith in a team that just hasn't met expectations but i don't know as i i have this written down for the next game you don't have to bet on every game

so i think if if if we were to pick here we would put in tampa but uh i I think this is lean past for me. But we'll see. Next one, you don't have to bet every game. The Packers are three-point road favorites at the Jets. The Jets were frisky in week one. The Packers have been on a non-cover streak of their own. They've just lost six straight, dating back to last season.

It's their longest straight-up losing streak since 1991. So who do you have faith in here? Well, it would be the Packers, but their offensive line is really, really bad, Matt. like it's a problem you can't back a team laying three on the road who has a terrible offensive line and i think the packers what surprised you they won this game by 17 no i mean they were up big against minnesota and then they had just like bang bang boom bunch of bad plays in a row um i i i i i i just i'm not taking the jets i'll tell you that yeah packers three and ten in their last 13 against the spread is a road favorite.

No faith in the Jets. I do kind of have the feeling that Jets are going to win this game for some reason, but yeah, really tell you why. Do you remember the first win total wager we made this year?

No. In May, it was like the Jets under. Oh, yeah. Yeah, we did like that. Yeah, because it was like seven and a half. No, it wasn't. I feel like they're going to be five and a half.

Well, either way. I still feel like the Jets, they might end up winning this game and everyone's like, the Jets, this is the year. And everybody gets all excited and then they fall apart. but I just have like you have no faith in the Packers, no running game,

still figuring out the passing game even though Watson went crazy last week. The Jets' like the Jets team looks fine on paper. It's just when you actually see it happening. You're like, oh, boy. So you know Smith weirdly terrible as a home dog. His stats are 7 and 18 straight up as a home underdog in his career, one in 10 the last three seasons. So yeah, I think that's a pass.

your Carolina Panthers are two and a half point road favorites against quarterback to be named as we speak today. That's at Atlanta. All right, Matt, you're going to hate this. No. You know, Carolina hasn't covered as a road favorite or, to me, is a favorite in five years, just a favorite in general in five years.

Yep. Okay, maybe I'm with you. Keep going. But I like him here. Keep going. You don't like you here. You do like him here. Oh.

Oh, boy. Look, it's sort of the idea that I don't think they were as bad as they played last week. And that was such an embarrassing performance they had last week that if they don't come right this week and start 0-2, it feels like their season and last year's momentum is over, right? And Bryce Young legitimately played well last week. They had turnover, which happens. But the offense scored 31 points. It was fine, Matt.

The defense's like 59 points. But there's going to be a pride. I'm not thinking you have to bet on pride, Matt, but there's going to be a pride level for the Panthers in this game. that I think they have to play well or this is it for their season. Like you can't 0 and 2.

It's not the death that used to be, but it's pretty close to being death now, dude. Like, you got to, I just, I think Carolina has to be. And the Falcons, who cares just playing quarterback, bro? They're fucking awful.

They're down their best pass rushers. They're down their quarterback. You see Bijon almost get his leg broken and a half last week. Like, I'm glad he's healthy and ready to go. But they have one guy in offense that has the ball. I don't know, man. I'm okay with Carolina here.

I'm, they're just, you shouldn't back because of a must win or must play well. But they do need to show something this week. Yeah. Man, I was afraid of this. Look, the Panthers, they just let up almost 300 yards on the grounds. Now they face Besson Robinson. And you made the point about the Panthers's favorites. If I was going to give you more ammo here,

I would say that Bryce Young is terrible against most teams, both straight up and against the spread. But he is four and one against the Falcons. And Carolina is nine and no against the spread in their last nine off of a loss. So they do tend to get it corrected. Well, his last year, remember it was a very like one week good, one week bad.

Yeah. Atlanta should I mean they I feel like Pittsburgh kind of like let them hang around last week

that the game was actually much further apart than the score reflects I'm okay with this and the maybe because you're feeling it but this is a tough one this I feel like

I feel like I'm going to feel stupid no matter what side we take in this but like if it's rush I think this is a good play if it's Pennix it's like they will at least be able to move the ball maybe

do we have any idea who's going to be Pennix, practice yesterday. He's been practicing. Friday morning Pacific. Yeah, I think it's, look, it's probably, I feel like it's probably

going to be rushed. It's like you can't really put him out there with no reps, but. Yeah. Yeah. All right, let's put that in the maybe. Maybe Panthers. All right. How about Eagles Titans? Eagles are seven point road favorites. I kind of like Philly.

So don't know I. I think Tennessee's freaking awful, dude. I think they're a disaster. Yeah. I mean, this is another one where you talk about the trends, like, and how we might need to throw them out the window. Home dogs of seven plus are 22, four and two against the spread the first nine weeks of the season. I just think, like, Philly looked good last week.

Like, I watched almost that old game pretty closely. And did it interrupt vacation time? Were you just on your phone watching like, hon? I was delayed forever at the airport. I got to watch the commanders play. she knew it was week one i i thought this i thought it was week too but it was week one um not that that matters who cares but i philly was able they philly's offense made no mistakes like they weren't able to get a lot going on the grounds but yeah their offense made no mistakes no

turnovers like no dumb plays like the play calling was crisp their offensive line like yeah that maybe they're going to have a little bit of trouble with the interior but like okay i just don't Their defense look great. Like, I don't see how Tennessee scores 10 points. That's the thing. Tennessee is not going to score in this game at all. Yeah. I mean, last week they played the Jets.

And Tate and Robinson combined for 76 yards. Like, they have no running games speak of. I think, and they just, like, looked flat. Like, even the reporters were asking Sal, like, why wasn't your team up for this? It was week one. It was a whole game. So now Philly is going to come in there.

And, like, this is kind of what Philly does. They just murder bad teams. they just run through them. So I don't know. I don't love it, but I feel fine taking Philly. I strong agree, dude. Strong agree. Gross.

Seven point road favorite. Jalen Hertz. All right. This should be a good game, maybe. Bengals at Texans. Texans, as we record this, are two and a half point favorites. Joe Burrow popped up on the injury report this week. I think regardless, I probably would have been leading Houston, would you?

I like Houston. this one for a couple reasons. One is that sort of the same line of thinking like week two, which teams are most desperate? Houston cannot start 0 and 2 against two AFC contenders, right? They lost the Buffalo last week and their defense was embarrassed. The defense is not as

bad as they showed against Buffalo, right? And, but more importantly, a lot of hype on the Bengals defense after week one. Yeah. Do you many times they forced to punt in the week one game? Once, twice? Zero. Zero. Zero. Wow.

Well, that's great. Tampa scored every drive. They didn't fumble the ball. They fumbled the ball four times. Yeah. Some of that was the doing of the Bengals defense. But my point is that they didn't force one punt the entire game. Tampa scored every drive of the game.

They didn't have a fumble. And so Houston's offense looked very competent against Buffalo, which is what we were questioning. Like, how good are they? Now, they had, I think, you know, went on the injury report, which is kind of a bummer. But I would back Houston here, short, home favorite. Um, need to play well. Bengals on the road, uh, here.

I don't really, the Bengals defense is not as good as I think that we saw in week one. So Houston, uh, minus two and a half. I'm, I'm good with that. Yeah. One big yikes for us is Stroud has yet to cover in the first two weeks of the season. Crazy. Oh, and seven? Yeah.

I don't, was that his fault last week, though? No. I mean, if, if Lasseter just makes that pick on that, right? That throw from Allen, like we're talking about, again, like totally different season for, for Buffalo and for Houston. Um, yeah, I just, I mean, remember too, the Bengals traditionally are terrible in the beginning of the season. They, as you said, they kind of got lucky last week. Um, I just think this is just like a Houston smash. I saw this one and was just like, oh, sure, let's do it. Um, yeah, I think, I think this is a time saver.

I think this one's in for us. Yep. I agree. Um, all right, Baltimore is hosting the Saints. Baltimore is laying eight and a half points. Everyone's, everyone's feeling hot about Baltimore after they beat Daniel Jones in week one. I think that's,

I think this is Saints or nothing, in my opinion, right? It took a little bit of time to get going last week, but once they got going, like the offense looked like it should, right? They're on the road, right?

So it's not, maybe not as good as not being in a, not inside in a dome. But there's a lot of points, man. For an, I think an offense in the Saints that's better than the Colts. Like, I don't, I, the Colts of me this year were not going to be good.

And they showed that in week one. So, I mean, this has to be like backdoor cover. Like, man, it just, it's, I don't know. I'm, I would stay away, but I would take the Saints. Not a great conviction. One piece of advice. If you are going to do any live bidding this week, this is the game. Because no one is better.

First of all, Lamar is dominant against NFC teams, right? And he's dominant as a first half quarterback just in general against any one. one, the Saints haven't covered a first quarter money line under Kellan Moore. How crazy is that? So this is going to start. If we take the Saints here, it's going to start out. It's going to be like 17 nothing in the first half. We're going to be like, you're going to send me that text and be like, we're screwed.

We're idiots. And then we're going to look up and we're going to need like a two-point conversion to get a backdoor. The Ravens, the thing that makes me get a little nervous about this is like, obviously, I don't think the Ravens are going to get safe flowers this week. They're going to miss Jacoby Lane this week. So their passing game probably won't be as effective as it was But like that doesn't necessarily matter because the reason the Ravens have never covered these big spreads in the last couple of years is because they get away from the run As soon as they hand this ball off the Henry in the second half like the games is going to just drain

So I'm a little concerned I the eight and a half is just like a gigantic number So it's a thing about eight and a half though Matt too is like so last week we had two big spreads right? A, A, and a half, eight, half, nine and a half, and then the Chargers. And are the Saints worse than the Cardinals and Browns? No. No, they're definitely not. No, they're fine.

Right. I think these numbers, either Saints or nothing, right? Yeah, totally. I absolutely think so. I just think, yeah, this is, I think, just one of those where we hold our nose if we need it. So let's rank down New Orleans. But yeah, definitely about this one live. I will definitely be doing that.

All right, let's move to Vikings bears. We don't know who the quarterback of Vikings is going to be, but we presume it's the man from North Dakota, who we do not speak about on this podcast. Well, he won his money last week. Did. Baird by four and a half is the latest. So I would, a couple of things here.

One is that the total is super high, right? And I actually think the under is a good contrarian playing in this one. Like, are the Vikings can score a ton of points with Carson Wentz in there? Again, the Bears defense,

though, so bad, Matt. I mean, I don't have a side feeling in this. I probably would just lean bears, but Brian Flores, man,

like, he can confuse Caleb Williams and make things tough for them. But also, when you blitz, you're vulnerable for big plays because the secondary is one-on-one.

There's Holson secondary. I just think, I just think this is a stay-way for me. Just great game to watch. don't have many thoughts on it. Yeah. Feels like a snipe spot for the Vikings. The Bears are getting 90% of the money line tickets.

Everyone loves them. And the Vikings have won six straight games. So it's just kind of interesting. But backing Wentz off of a good game just feels impossible. So I think it's to stay away, as you said. But if I was in a picks pool, which I am, I will be taking the points in Minnesota. But it's a pass for us. All right, Steelers at Patriots.

If you had told me to guess this line, I would have said like two and a half, but it is five. So I am very interested if you were interested in the Steelers. What's the case for Pittsburgh? The case for Pittsburgh is what is New England? Like, what is New England's offense

without A.J. Brown now? Yeah. You get Henderson back. I think even better. I think, I don't know, man. Like the Patriots offense, will obviously play better not against Seattle.

But Pittsburgh's defense is also quite good, quite healthy at this point in the season. What's the path? A slow, steady game from Ramandre Stevenson, and then they pull away with some big passes to Mack Hollins.

How does the Patriots win this one by a lot? Yeah. Pittsburgh won this game last year. They went into New England and beat them. They would have to suffocate, I guess the, suffocate them? It's like the Steelers' offense is not super dynamic.

Like, you know, they barely throw the ball down field at all. But I don't think that the Patriots are going to pull away. And I think the Say J. Brown thing completely changes what they want to do. They could play great. But, you know, I think this line is just very respectful to them from last year. The total is 41.5. So again, it's like, what does this actually mean? Like, it's going to be like a 20 to 13 kind of win, like our, you know, a 27, like, I don't know.

If the Patriots defense, which is hard to tell because they played Drew Locke in week one, is it good? Do you think it's good? That's the thing, man. Like, I don't, it's like. So this wager would more be about New England fade than like anything positive for Pittsburgh. Yeah, and I just think Pittsburgh is just going to be professional and competitive. And Pittsburgh is not, what do they do well?

Like, they're going to do, you know, a few quickies, like to the running backs. Like, it's not like the Patriots have like a ton of linebacker speed or anything. You know, it's their, the pass rush and Christian Gonzalez isn't going to like a race D.K. Meckap, who cares? Like, they'll have plenty of other ways to move the ball. So I don't know. I just feel like this line is out of whack and a little too respect. I agree that it's probably overinflated, but I don't.

feel great about it. We can put in the Mabies. I mean, do you love it? No, this one to me felt like we would just land on it, but let's just put it in the Mabies. I don't feel passionately about taking Aaron Rogers on the road, I'll tell you that.

It's going to surprise you, Jeff, but I do have some feelings about this game. We're now into the late window. The Raiders are coming to L.A. to face the Chargers. The Chargers are six and a half point favorites. I have a very strong opinion here. You're going to take the Raiders. No. No. This is a Chargers smash, dude. This is the play right here, don't you think?

You just think off how embarrassing last week was? I just think the Raiders are getting credit for beating the Dolphins, right? Like everyone looked like, no one watched that game and everyone looked at that and I'm like, oh, Cousins, like he had kind of a good game, right? A couple touchdowns. Like, no, he had 160 yards and two picks. He did not play well. Like, the dolphins are just a horrible team with like not enough NFL caliber talent. The chargers do well here, right? They are 10-1 and 1 against the spread in the division in the last three seasons.

Harbaugh has covered every single game they play against the Raiders. Everyone's, including me, is just dogging on Herbert for what a bad game he played in week one. They are head and shoulders above the Raiders. They're at home. This line should be like seven and a half, but everyone's so down on the chargers that this is an opportunity to buy here. So this is the kind of game Justin Herbert wins, dude.

he's playing a bad team at home with no pressure. Like, they're going to win this game by 20 points. How much did you like my Justin Herbert Slender in the pot with Mitch on Tuesday? I just appreciate that people are finally seeing this. Like, it's the same stuff I've been saying for three years and now everybody's saying it. I saw some people talking about how Trevor Lawrence is actually who people want Justin Herbert to be. Yeah, that was another one from our guy Nick. It's like, yeah, they're kind of, they're similar.

And I feel like their, their trajectories passed on that playoff game where, where Trevor, came back and her pull the lead. Did you see, our friend Nate Tice was talking about if the Chargers roster is actually any good? Did you see that one? I saw that. He does not the wide receiver coach there. I know that. He was,

him and Shil Kapaya, who were way smart about football than I am, were both like, was this roster actually better than the Cardinals? It's like two weeks ago everyone was predicting this team was going to win the AFC West. I just, I just can't believe it.

I like, Nate was one of the few people that, that like, send me a message like, hey, you write about Bow Nix. Thank you, buddy. That guy really knows his football.

I just think the way the narrative turns is so funny. Matt, were you thinking on Monday night like, damn, this is good for Schwartz. It's a good outcome for me, buddy. Because the Knicks had gone out there and played well, I would have been fiscured. I will say, buddy, it was on my mind. It was definitely on my mind. Yes, he's a dot is three point. That tweet with the A dot where it showed his A dot was like 3.78.

And then the average person sits away from the TV like 3.7. five feet away or meters away, whatever, was yards away was great, great tweet. So yes, good start for me. I just misspoke. I'm an idiot. I should have said it better than the first time. But I wrote about it.

I did it in a podcast, but, you know, Sean Payne just didn't, he didn't manage to get back on Twitter, did he? No, yeah, he must have not logged on. He did actually make sure that, that, that, Colin Cow was doing his work for him on the old, the old airways. Collins got after Bo Nicks this week. Dude.

We'll see. There's a lot of Fox to Sean Payton pipeline out there. I don't think people need help connecting those thoughts. All right. Let's move on to the Broncos, actually. The Broncos are two and a half point favorites against Jacksonville. This game just feels like a trap for either side. I just don't know which.

I mean, I'd much rather take Jacksonville if I had to choose a side here. I think it's okay to acknowledge Trevor Lawrence looked really good as their Browns week one But Jacksonville, they won the division last season Like good football team, right? Did they end last year? Yeah, they ended the last year with what, eight wins in a row to end last season. Yeah, until the playoffs, yeah. Yeah, like legitimately sort of figure things out.

I haven't seen Denver's offense was really bad in week one schematically. Like, Sean Payne's got to be killing himself or giving a play call on duty. I think very clearly it was not his decision to give it up. And I think I think Jacksonville is better. I mean, you count for home field a little bit here in Denver without the two of the fans. But I think Jacksonville is better. That two and a half stinks or rather get three.

Maybe just stay away from this game. But, man, I'm, I'd be pro-Jackville here. Something that I just don't understand. Maybe you can shed some light on. Sean Payton is one of the best coaches in NFL history, according to every metric. But for whatever reason, he stinks in the first two weeks to the season, right?

He's 12 and 25 against the spread. That's the worst mark for any head coach in the Super Bowl era with a minimum game cutoff. Since 2014, you think about those teams. That's a lot of Drew Breeze teams. It was a 14 and 3 team last year. He's 5 and 18 straight up in weeks 1 and 2, 4 and 19 against the spread.

Like, how do you even explain that? Hmm. I mean, I certainly think that the Davis Webb issue this year is a problem, right? Maybe it takes some, maybe the way training camp is, maybe it takes some time to figure out what his offense wants to be. He has an idea, and then he gets into games and just not very good. He's good at adapting, Matt, you know, throughout a season, certainly possible there. Maybe Bo Nick's just a slow starter. I mean, those are probably the reasons I turn.

I don't think there's anything that he does a coach where he's not ready to coach his team in the best way possible. Yeah, that doesn't seem likely at all. I mean, it's like it goes back to Drew Brice. Like, I just don't understand. But he's also very conflicting. He's 62% against this spread awful loss. That's the second most profitable coach of all time after Bill Belichick. So he obviously knows what he's doing.

Remember last year in week two, that was that crazy loss to the Colts that threw everybody off the sent to both teams for like the whole season. Peyton's lost in week two every year in Denver. just kind of surprising. So I think this is a game where we're going to have like a weird takeaway. If the Jags end up winning this game by a lot, the Jags train is just going to leave the station

and Denver's going to get buried and there will be good value against on either side. And if Denver, Denver like, they're another one. Like they kind of have to win this, dude. Like they can't go to O&2. They can't drop a game at home. Like they're then all of a sudden, like last year,

they're 14 and 3. Like all of it starts to feel like a house of card. So I don't feel strong. here. I feel like I just, I'm a little worried about going against Denver in this kind of spot because I think their team is really good. And like the last week's game like just was,

I don't know, everybody's overreacting, I think, a little bit. So it's a pass for me. But if you like Jacksonville. No, no, I don't know. No, I don't like enough to play it. No. Okay. All right. Where am I? That's a pass. My team, the commanders are going to Dallas.

Talk about a must win for each team. Dallas. Wow. Down to four. What do you think? Can I sell you on the commandantes here? Sure. Let's hear it. I just don't think they played it as bad as maybe the final score was a two-point loss.

I get that, but they only allowed 10 first downs. Like, the defense looked much better. The Eagles hit a bunch of explosives, but the Cowboys can certainly do. They can hit explosive plays. The offense I thought battled, man. Like, the offense battled. Jane Daniels back from injury.

You have a left tackle injury. Like, you just kind of worked. You just kind of like kept playing, kept fighting. and if Stefan Diggs doesn't attack the goalpost with his wiener, you maybe have a chance to win that game. So, like, I just, you lost by two on the road to Philly. Like, I think that's a great start for you guys. I know you wanted to win as a fan.

Dallas defensive issues are a problem. Like, that defense looked like shit against the Giants. They weren't physical at front on defense. Now, you can make the case I made this for other teams that there's an embarrassment factor week one, are they going to play better week two? Also was schematic failure, right? Where they just left guys open a bunch, they have a new difference of coordinator.

They have young players playing important positions, Matt. Four points. This is probably a high scoring game, as my guess. I'd be okay with the commander's lane. Excuse me, getting four points here. What do you think about your team? I'm with it. I agree with everything you said.

Dallas's defense, a quick point on that. So the new coordinator is one of these Vic Fangio disciples. And every time Vic Fangio gets a new job, the same thing happens. The first like six weeks of the season, the defense looks terrible. And then it clicks. It's just like a confusing scheme. We've seen it over and over. I feel like that could be what's happening here with Dallas.

Like I'm not ready to say that their team is just going to be terrible defensively. But I do think if you're Washington, this is a nice week to go to Dallas and have to play them. The Tyler Smith injury, I think, is big. Washington's defensive front was excellent. Their problem on defense was one of their cornerbacks who got burned at least twice, which could be a huge problem here. But I think that will hopefully get a little bit. tightened up, obviously great receivers in Dallas, but I just think that, you know, and there's

some in the overshone injury, the hooker injury on defense, like, I just think that Washington's offense came together in the second half. You know, so I agree. I think they're better than people think. I think this is a, this is a good chance to take an under by the way. I think both teams, this is the highest total of the week at 50 and a half. I think people just assume that both defenses are horrible. Washington's defense is good. I'm telling. you. And they, one of these teams, this is going to be a close game. Somebody's going to really be in a bad spot if they lose.

So I'm fine taking the points. So, I don't know if you've seen that there's a guy that breaks down film is a young guy. He blocked Mitch and I on the internet because we try to correct him about some offense of line play. And he put out a video about the Cowboys defense against the same Giants concept that running back in the flat that we saw it, signing at football. And he went this whole thing about like this is quarters and this and that have to do better at this. And that's not Kell and Mund, you know, quarterback, you know, for a long

time. Retweet it was like, yeah, everything you said was wrong. It wasn't quarters. It was cover three and they were trying to disguise it. That's what they do the Fangio system. The Cowboys just weren't good enough. They kind of didn't like disguise it and get to the right places fast enough. That's why they were a little bit late. So that goes to your point about like figuring out the defense, right? Like just takes time to figure out where people need. It's kind of funny. It's kind of funny that like made a whole ass video about saying they were playing quarters which is cover four right and kellen was like no actually it's it's it's cover three that i just nothing all wrong i just the space is amplified buddy by some people that don't know what they're talking about and it's

frustrating but it's what it is what do you do about it man i will say this about this as a washington fan there was that one tweet from the commander's beat writer for the athletic her name's nicky and she posted that thing about the offensive line being terrible against the Ravens and that joint practice. And everyone reported that as like, well, the offensive line is terrible. And that was like right after the tonsill injury, the best lineman now, Sam Cosby didn't practice that day. They were like rotating their centers. And for two months, it's just been like Washington's offensive line, terrible.

It's like Jane Daniels was sacked once last week. And Jalen Carter like did not have a good game because he was protected well by Sam Cosme. So I just think that people like, it's tough, man. You read something and you immediately file it away and it's like, nope, it's, it's a lot more complicated than people think. It is. And look, I mean, obviously a beat reporter reporting stuff is going to happen. Right. I mean, that's part of it.

Of course. But like, break it down the film and getting it wrong. It's like, that's, that's part for the course. It's kind of crazy how often like it's just not. It's a, dude, you don't have to play the game to know the game. I'm not one of those people. That's definitely not the case. There are plenty of people that played,

they never played at any high level that are good at talking about football. That's not, yeah, there you go, Matt. But like, breaking down film, like,

there is something to understanding like what's actually happening. And it's very precise. And you can be very wrong about talking about it pretty quickly. And, um, happens a lot,

buddy. Happens a lot. But we move on. Uh, what we have one more four-clock game I feel like. We do. Actually, we have two.

One of them, I don't think we're going to discuss much. The 49ers are 13-point favorites to the dolphins. We can just save some time here. We have a call in 10 minutes, so let's save some time on this one. Let's save some time. That's a hard pass. How about the Cardinals?

They are four-point home dogs to Drew Locke and the Seahawks. Buddy. Can I fade Drew Locke? Yeah, dude. Let's fight Drew Locke. Dude, this Cardinals' offense. This Cardinals' offense can score. Like, I think this is just going to be a fun game.

Like, I'm excited. to see how Seattle plays this team. I'm weighing on this. Yeah. Yes, let's go. Give me the Cardinals. The Cardinals offense, heading in the season,

I think people thought the Cardinals' offense could be a little frisky, right? Like, Bressett's fine, right? They have Jeremiah Love looked pretty good. They have some other pieces. I know that Harrison Jr. just doesn't look great,

but McBride's fantastic. Al Jir also can run the ball very well. They played well against the Chargers. And just just fade you. I'm just going to fade Drewlock. Like I just, I'm okay with it. It's fine with me. On the road, off a great like Sunday night or Wednesday,

whatever the hell they play Wednesday performance. Everyone's gassing his ass up. He's not good. He's completely six percent past his entire career. Summit for Arizona. Yes. Let's do it. Yep.

I completely agree. Obviously, McDonald is great on the road. But this is the biggest other than, there's only been one time, at least in, I think it's in, last 20 years that a backup quarterback has laid more than a field goal as a road favorite. It was Jimmy G with the Patriots. Now Drew Locke's doing it. So yeah, give me the Cardinals.

I love it. There's plenty of backdoor potential here. They could lose by a field goal and we win this one. All right. On to your guys on Sunday night. The Chiefs are six and a half point favorites to the Colts. This is a stayaway city for me, but tell me if you have a feeling. No, I didn't know people are.

I know Sharp groups are ticket. the cold to this one. Overreaction to what happened, you know, the Chiefs did not pass the ball terribly well in that game, but the defense looked really good, man. And they ran the ball really well. Can you be sustainable in offense,

need to run the ball that much and have those explosive runs? I don't know. But I also think that Kansas City is going to find ways to pass the ball better after Mahomes, you know, back, you know, first week back after injury. So the wide receiving worries me.

Like, I don't think they have a great man beaters. And that concerns me. But I'm, six and a half. This is like Chiefs win, you know, 2317, right?

It's like, it's just stay away. Yeah. Yeah. It's the, you want to take the Colts here, but the way Daniel Jones looks, I just don't think you can do it.

Great. The Colts have a very good defensive line. So I don't think, you know, Kenneth Walker will just walk into the end zone every, every play like you did.