Geoff Schwartz Is Smarter Than You - Week 2 Reactions and NFL Week 3 Best Bets

Episode Date: September 20, 2024

Geoff is back with another episode of Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You. On today's show, Geoff and Matt recoup after a rough week 2. Plus, a look ahead into week 3 of the NFL with Geoff's Best Bets.Be sure to follow the pod to get notified when a new episode drops each week, and follow @GeoffSchwartz on Twitter/X for more NFL and CFB comments. Geoff Schwartz is Smarter Than You will be live streamed on Twitter/X and YouTube every Friday all season long.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

it is friday september 20th i'm jeff schwartz that is matt ford as jeff schwartz is smarter than you it is our weekly friday gambling podcast hopefully you listened last week but to not follow our advice matthew because we went oh and five last week and they weren't even close matt we lost immediately and every wager we make. I will say that week two typically is our worst week of the year for whatever reason. We do well week one most years. Week two, 0-5, 1-4.

The thing about gambling, guys, is it takes a long time to climb out of this. We can do it. We've done it before. We've climbed out of this hole before, but it takes seven weeks in a row going three and two to climb out of the hole. Which is kind of RMO. Kind of RMO.

So stick with us. It was a bad week two. Not as bad. I'm not going to do that joke, Matt. Not going to do that joke, Matt. Nonetheless, we will preview all the games for this upcoming weekend. Every NFL team is in action. We'll talk about sides and totals.

I've actually been pretty good on quarterback props, taking the under for all these quarterbacks. There's been a lot of discussion about lack of offense so far this year, Matt. Look, not much to recap in the Thursday night game. The Jets are better than the Patriots. Aaron Rodgers looked much better. That was the story of that. Quickly, I want to touch on this idea of what's happening offensively

in the NFL right now. So scoring, way down. Touchdowns, way down. Yards per drive, yards per play, everything way down. And obviously yesterday there was a firestorm on social media about Mel Kuyper saying, no more cover two. And that's a big part of what's happening, right? Teams are playing cover two.

And what happens is, so there's two general ideas of coverage, right, Matt? There's two safeties and one safety, right? And when there's two safeties, one safety, right? And when there's two safeties, it's hard to pass the football. There's more guys that are back in the backfield. And if you throw the ball, there's more options to deflect balls and find ways to disrupt routes. When there's one safety, there's one less guy. It's not rocket science, right? And then when there's two safeties, typically that means there's one less guy or sometimes two sort of around the line of scrimmage in what we call the box, right? Tackle to tackle or tackle to tight end. And against cover two, you should run the ball more often.

Against cover one, not cover one, one safety, because it can be cover three, it can be cover one. There's typically an extra guy in the box now, harder to run the football, okay? So teams are saying, look, for years and years and years, we have said and heard about how teams don't want to run the ball anymore, right? Passing the ball is a higher EPA, it's more efficient, and you get more yards, right? Is a four-yard run better for your offense, Matt, or a seven-yard play? Seven-yard pass.

Seven-yard passes. Now, there's still a merit to the run game, but teams have said, look, okay, no one wants to run the football anymore. We'll go to too high. The answer is to establish the run, to run the football. And I said this yesterday. Mina Kimes, thankfully, was able to quote tweet and say, the teams with the best EPA,

so basically the best efficiency in offense, through two weeks, are the teams that are running the ball the most against cover two the saints shockingly enough and the cardinals right so this is not a big deal as far as like with the adjustments the end of his run the football but i also think matt something i've talked about for years now the lack of practice time is finally catching up now to the offenses because to combat anything a defense does just like anything in life you need reps you need reps defenses are always ahead of the offense and start a training camp the more

reps we get the more we see things the more we diagnose the more the offense practices the better the offense gets there's only so much a defense can do we have more things to do offensively than the defense can do to us you know on the flip side right but they don't practice anymore we practice you know in training camp five times a week i think you have to have an off day every fourth day you're not you're not in pads very much anymore the offseason program is shorn down you play these young quarterbacks right away like no rest like go play right now play right now and so to me it's lack of practice time that is a big reason why a team's not running to run the football that's so interesting yeah i mean the the it does feel like football tends to sort of zig and zag and the pendulum

tends to swing and you know the running game has been so de-emphasized in the last couple years and it does make sense that then okay it's overcomp compensate it and now we come back um i'm really curious like you know the the lions last week were a team that made me think about this like jared off through 55 times through the ball to saint brown 20 times and they couldn't get anything going offensively they couldn't score uh they they were shut out in the red zone i think think, I think last week, maybe they scored once, but I it's like, it's not complicated, but I think that we've sort of over adjusted so much into the past game that, you know, somebody is just going to have to sort of just be that team that is kind of

the outlier and just commits. And the Cardinals are, are maybe a good example. They were awesome running the ball last year. They've been doing great this year, but you know, some of these bad teams that could just start to steal some games, like, or even some of the, like, why doesn't Philly just become like a really run dominant team, right? Like they're like, that's, they're just, they're built for it anyway. Like there's a bunch of teams that make a lot of sense that don't seem to

have it figured out yet. What's funny is the chiefs ran the ball a ton against the Bengals who have continually played too high against them for all these years. And so the chiefs figure it out and other other teams have to figure it out as well. All right, Matt, let's see if we can figure out at least three winners this week. We got to do it, man. There's going to be some games I think we disagree on, just knowing how we do this in the past.

But let's get to the games. Thursday, obviously, eliminated because the Jets ended up covering that game. Congrats, Jets fans. One mistake we made last week is I think we knew the Packers were the right side, and we just didn't do it. Yeah. We should have done it. We should have done it.

Yeah. Man, there were a lot of mistakes last week. I will say, Jeff, that even the ones I liked that we didn't put in, they didn't win either. So last week, we just need to burn the tape. Like it never happened. It's fine. We like the Niners and Tampa Bay,

which covered. And so, yeah, we're not going to talk about it. We're on to week three. We're on to week three. Let's go, Matt.

First game, first game, a real gem. The Broncos hosting or Broncos going to Tampa Bay to play the bucks. The bucks are laying six and a half. There is only one play to make here, and I'm just not sure I can make it, Jeff. No, I think we have to stay away from the Broncos right now.

Offensively, Bo Nix is just not playing confidently enough to wager on them in this spot, right? Matt, it's not the spot to take Broncos. You can make the argument at some point it's not the the spot to take bronco i you can make the argument at some point it's going to click for these rookies but do you want to keep wagering them until it does we had the broncos last weekend they allowed i'm aware one offense a touchdown and couldn't cover three and a half points it wasn't even close yeah i couldn't do they were just so um i i think it's it's broncos are bust

here uh the bucks by the way this number's over in flight because the bucks are now two and oh i thought they win the division obviously the the saints are sort of creeping up there as well um but yeah bucks had a bucks had a good win in detroit that beat the commanders week one they're playing some good football but i'm to stay away from the Broncos in this spot. Yeah, I mean, I'm not going to make a compassionate argument to put my name on Bo Nix again, but I mean, this number just this feels like a really big number for a Bucs team that, you know, has two impressive, well, one impressive win against Detroit and another win against my stupid team.

I think that I like the six and a half is just, it's just massive. And, and you know, I think we were both like kind of lukewarm on Denver. I think we were, I was definitely among the crowd that was sort of like, well,

Sean Payton, like, well, they have all these other things sort of going for them. Their defense shouldn't be so bad that this would in theory be the week where they would like make it a game. And they, what's crazy

about denver is like they hold the ball for so long like i feel like their drives go for an hour and and still lead to a punt like they're the most they're the most boring team so i i feel like they could just sit on the ball and this this maybe this total goes under i i just don't think we should put it in our five and convince america that they belong in the mix. No, I don't think let's pass on Denver, uh, Texans Vikings boy Vikings. What is, what a team this year.

Uh, the Texans are two or two and a half point favorites on the road in Minnesota. Vikings are getting a bit more of the money. The public is on the Texans, which isn't a surprise. Well, so I like Houston minus two. This is the one I think you're gonna hate me you're

gonna hate me oh you like it too okay good that's the one i thought you'd hate me for no i like it plus i know a sharp group that hit houston immediately earlier this week at minus two yeah that makes me feel better because that sharp group wins a lot of money here's where i like houston this week um i think they're just good matt like it's that simple i think they're a good football team they fly around on defense. Stroud, every time I watch him play, Matt, Stroud impresses me even more and more. Like, he's a legit elite.

Like, he'll end this year passing a lot of quarterbacks that we thought were ahead of him, like Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott. Like, he's going to start passing these guys. Like, we're going to end this season, Matt, and we're going to look at Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Burrow, Jackson, Stroud. He's going to be right there in that conversation, Matt,

on sort of that Tier 2 or 1 at B of quarterbacks in the NFL. I like the way Houston plays, and still Sam Darnold in the end. I get it. But if you take out that 97-yard touchdown, which he's not going to hit every week, Matt, the game is much different against the 49ers, right? And then I said, bad turnovers.

I like Houston minus two here. I think Houston minus two is the right side. It's a road favorite. I get it. But they can win this game by a field goal. And again, if Houston gets ahead in this game, do you trust Sam Darnold to sort of lead this team back? I don't, not yet. No.

And I think Houston, Houston is like, you know, we've, we've had Houston on the list of like one of our super bullish level teams. I mean, they have a problem with who's in their, in their conference, but I mean, the Vikings, I think are a great story. They played super well. The Niners are last week. in their conference. But I mean, the Vikings, I think are a great story. They played super well. The Niners are last week, like the Niners every year, beginning of the season. Like they seem to have one of those losses that make no sense. A couple of weeks later,

like remember that era was the bears. And like, there's, there's, it always feels like there's one. I think if you throw that game out, this line is like Houston by four and a half probably. And we probably would still still like it

i think that you know minnesota's been banged up uh i think i i don't know i think it's the right time to buy houston i think people aren't totally like i think i think these teams are a little bit uh priced incorrectly so i'm fine with this i was i was curious if you were going to have a side here but minnesota i don't think is is a buy for me on this side like i just i don't know i don't think that they win this game i don't think they're starting the season three and oh with sam donald's their quarterback like sorry i just don't this is the one i thought you would you would really disagree with me on no that's probably not a good side no it's probably not great all right we got one in for us we've got houston in uh let's

talk about this one we i i'm curious where you land on on this one the charters and the steelers speaking of undefeated teams uh the chargers are small or small underdogs only plus one and a half in pittsburgh everybody loves the chargers the all the money all the bets are in on the charters so let me tell you why i like the chargers um in this game and nothing again the splits or whatever they are that i mean the public wins sometimes it's fine um first of all the steelers offensively matt have scored one touchdown eight field goals they can't keep getting away with this okay they can't um dude they've been getting away with it since like 1995 that's one of my takes here like the Chargers defense is legitimately playing good right now, and that's without Bosa dominating yet.

How are the Steelers going to move the ball in this game? The answer is they're not, Matt. This is a much better – the Chargers have become Jim Harbaugh so much faster than I thought they'd become Jim Harbaugh, right? So I think the Steelers are going to have a tough time moving the ball in this game, which they've had a tough time moving the ball against the Broncos and the Falcons. The Chargers are a better defense right now than those two defenses. On the other side, what is Pittsburgh doing defensively? Okay. They're rushing the passer, right? They're affecting the game that way. Here comes Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt.

Maybe the best tackle combo in the NFL right now. The Chargers are winning without Justin Herbert having to do anything. Imagine when they sort of unleash Justin Herbert. Could be this weekend. The Steelers are not playing Cousins, and they're not playing Bo Nix. And by the way, the West Coast East Coast thing, the Chargers have been in Charlotte, actually, the entire week. They never left Charlotte.

So this idea of, like, the early game doesn't matter to me. I love the Chargers a lot, Matt. I don't care the public. For me, it's a matchup thing thing the chargers match up very well and they play the style of game that the steelers want to do but i think they do it better than the steelers do i mean the thing that's so worrisome to me is herbert's whatever this foot injury is don't even have to win with them they They haven't been winning with him. Well, I just don't think that that's,

I mean, the Steelers defense, like I get it. They haven't been there. You know, they haven't really played everybody yet, but like the, the,

the problem with the charters is they like, I kind of feel like they can't keep getting away with this. Like JK Dobbins is going to run for 150 yards every week. He's going to go into Pittsburgh and, and you know, the Steelers defense isn't going to be able to figure that out. I just feel like the Pittsburgh D-line can cause a lot of trouble for an injured Herbert, so I'm a little wary of this one. My thing is, unlike Kirk Cousins or Bo Nix,

the Chargers can just unleash Justin Herbert in this game. They can just be like, okay, let's use the passing game a little bit more this week. That's why I like it. I just think they're better than... Are the Steelers going to start 3-0 scoring what? Let's say they had a one-off at the touchdown and three more field goals. 11 field goals and two touchdowns would be 3-0, Matt. The last team that started uh two and oh without scoring

with with scoring only one touchdown was the steelers in 2010 by the way so like they've done this before like this is their thing they can just they can pull games out of their ass i i don't see like a big edge here either way but i i will consider this as a maybe um the charters plus one and a half. It worries me a bit. Just I think. It doesn't at all for me, which might be a problem. All right.

I just like the matchup, but that's what it is here. Yeah. Well, fair enough. I think we might like this matchup, Jeff. Philadelphia at New Orleans. The Saints, America's team, laying three. The Eagles in the look ahead lines were three point favorites. This is flipped.

I could not be more in on the Eagles here, but I'm curious if you're on that same side. I'm a little terrified of the Saints train right now. The Saints wagon, but you're buying an Eagles team right now at the lowest point. Totally. but you're buying an Eagles team right now at the lowest point. Totally. And we've done this before with the Panthers game where we did, we obviously took the Panthers week one because the saints are not the saints car and Alan are terrible as favorites.

It feels like this is sort of the game that Philly, what they can do. I think there'll be okay, Matt, it feels like this is sort of the game that Philly, what they can do, I think they'll be okay, Matt, but we're just fading the Saints that are super hot right now, right? I mean, that's the point of this wager. Again, an Eagles team that's not bad. They're still favored or one of the favorites to win the NFC, getting three points on the road here to bounce back. They should have won that game the other night.

And what's this number if they win that game the other night? A pick-em? Yeah. No, I think they're probably favored, honestly. I mean, I think the Saints, like people are, this, this happens all the time where there's a team that starts the season and everyone's like, oh my God, like this team, like, how are we so wrong about this team? The Saints started last year to an L right? Like they're not a team that, that I don't, I get it. Like they're not a team that, that I don't, I get it. Like they've done a nice job with, you know, Kubiak's been great. I think they've, they've sort of surprised some teams. Like it was interesting hearing Mike Parsons say that

he couldn't really figure out their, their defense last week or their offense last week. So legitimately playing well right now, it's playing well, but I think like it's sort of the same thing. I think like if like how we're throwing out our week two i think we'll look back on that dallas game in week two and be like what was that like the cowboys got killed by the saints like that's weird so i i just feel like these two teams are not like these are not two even teams the the assessment we had on these two teams a few weeks ago was the eagles are much better than this team the only thing that i'm curious what what the deal is with aj brown i do think this eagles offense is like so different without him like they just sort of seem to like lack that

the eagles i don't know if you feel this way when you watch them like when they sort of start clicking they feel scary like in a way that does that most other teams don't feel like it's like oh my god they have barkley and they have smith and they have hertz who can't be stopped on third and short and they have aj brown i feel like without uh without aj like they're kind of a different team so that's the only thing that worries me a bit uh aj did not practice yesterday apparently so that's the only thing you could talk me out of it for that reason but I still think the Eagles plus three isn't a bad play I think it's a good number

yeah I do too and also like the Saints it used to be like oh you can't bet against the Saints in New Orleans like they actually are worse at home against the spread than they are in the world now since the end of the breeze era so I'm fine with Philly that was one of my favorites this week um god the malik willis revenge game is the next one the packers are

getting two and a half points in tennessee there is a chance jordan love plays which i think is some of the reason that people have just made the bet on the packers in this one i don't think he plays i think that uh we had our chance last week to wager on the packers matt and we that that opportunity is now over and we're not wagering on the tennessee titans either i can't do it again and screwed us two straight weeks will levis makes too many bonehead mistakes to wager on them and i think again like the game plan of running the football and keeping malik willis out of trouble is great but now tennessee knows what you're doing, right? Like they know, like there's not, there's not much deviation off of what the Packers

did last week. And the Titans know this, right? The Titans defense, I think is fine. It's not great, but it's not, it's not terrible. So I think you stay away from this game. And the only play would be the Packers here. You're not playing, you're not playing the Titans with the way they played so far. I guess they're a favorite

because they're at home. They look at these teams as evenly matched. I would stay away from this game. Yeah, I just don't see an edge, especially with, it's like, who are you backing? Lillis or Levis? Like, no thanks. We can save time.

The next one, I mean, God, i can't believe i'm probably gonna make the case i'm about to make the giants are getting six and a half points no in cleveland just don't do it just stay away you have no interest no i they're so bad i can't i i mean they are definitely bad but i mean mean, the Giants, the Giants got absolutely torched in week one, but they should have won last week. So far, we're waging on CJ Stroud, possibly Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts. And you want to Daniel Jones? This is how you win in the stupid contest is you have to back these bad teams. I don't know if this is the team and there's a few other games I do really like still,

but Cleveland, I think, Cleveland really, talk about a result from last week that got them overinflated. Like, they should not have won that game against Jacksonville. Like, Jacksonville gave that game up, and everyone's, I think, thinking like, oh, you know, Deshaun, like, he's looking good. Maybe he's back.

Like, he's not back. He stinks. Like, he had his best game Deshaun, like he's looking good. Maybe he's back. Like he's not back. He stinks. Like he had his best game probably as a Brown last week. But I do think that like if the Giants want to save their season at all, they have to play well in this game. Miles Garrett didn't practice yesterday. I just I don't I'm not impressed with the Browns. I feel like the Vegas crew like continues to overrate them as they have the last couple of years. And I think they saw it right last year.

But I just, I don't know. I don't think this Giants team is as despondent as they seem. Something clicked with Malik Nabors last week. He looks good, yeah. But if they had had a kicker, they'd be one and one. And this line would be a lot different. And instead, they beat themselves. So I just don't see the Browns being six and a half points better than anyone

right now. But I also would understand if you want to pass this. Oh, we'll do maybe for now, but I don't like it. All right. So you don't, you don't seem like you love it. So that's why. No, I don't love it. It's not, it's not my favorite. This one might be though. next one is chicago at the colts uh i'm seeing a pick or a plus or minus one for the colts uh what do you what do you like in this one i had no real opinion on this game i love indy in this one i feel like indy is a team that people are just totally overlooking based on the results of their games, but their offense has been absolutely clicking.

And I just don't think that the Bears do not seem like they're close to figuring this out quite yet. And the Colts, look, they just... I just think that they haven't matched up with their potential quite yet. We can pull up their... The problem is too is so volatile that they they can i think win games by a lot or lose games by all the public monies on the bears yikes yeah

exactly well the colts it's because the colts are like this weird team that people are i think sort of dismissing but like yes richardson's been erratic but they've held the ball a ton like they've they've had these long drives that just haven't totally finished yet they're averaging almost seven yards of play on offense which is absolutely insane uh and look I just think and this is all from our friend Evan Abrams at Action Network uh Caleb Williams 0 for 11 with two interceptions on throws traveling at least 15 yards downfield. He's not been good yet.

They haven't figured it out. They can't run the ball. Their own line's bad. Yeah, but the Colts' offensive line is great. I think that this could be one of those weeks where they just kind of figure it out. The Bears, this is a road game off of this short week with the tough loss.

I just don't see it with Chicago. it's a good it's a good it's a good play i think by us indeed pick them yeah i mean i kind of i kind of like it i like the giants plus six and a half i do too i mean the they're the books are basically saying is that the bears are you know two points better than the colts and i don't i don't think that I don't think they are either. And this Colts team is like their physical big tough team with good, good line play on both sides. I don't know. I just, I, this one jumped out to me as like, why aren't people in on the Colts? Like I, I just, I don't even seen it with the bears yet.

Yeah. That's a good point. Right. I, it's a good, yeah. I hadn't thought about this one. I like it. I'm going to put in the, in the definite, definite maybe category. Okay. Definite maybes. I love that.

We've got three so far, Houston, Philly, and Indy. Decent, decent, decent chargers too, buddy. Don't throw,

don't, don't throw that out. Let's put the charges in and the giants. I think we could just kill the giants. I think I already crossed them off. Okay. Tremendous. We've got a bunch of games left and still some interesting conversations. and the giants i think we could just kill the giants i think i already crossed them off okay tremendous um we've got a bunch of games left and still some interesting conversations to have the next one i'm curious where you are here skylar thompson and the dolphins plus four and a half

in seattle i i to me i my dumb football brain would take the seahawks here, but we did that last week if you were with the Colts and you lost. You know, like, I think the Seahawks are better. I think Skyler Thompson's going to struggle on the road playing in Seattle, but it's the NFL, man. Like, we thought last week the Packers would suck playing. They played at home against the Colts and they won with Malik Willis. I think it's just a stay-away game because everymoe is going to be on the seahawks if i were to bet this i would be betting on the dolphins uh i think the seahawks are i i think they're a little bit overvalued i

mean their two wins are a nail biter against the broncos and then a nail biter that went into overtime against the patriots they They play this overtime game. One is a favorite didn't cover. Now they have to fly back across the country. I do think that the dolphins look, the dolphins had a horrible game last week and Skylar Thompson is not going to be someone fun to bet on. So I know I'm probably not even going to win this argument,

but like they had 10 days now to figure this out with, with Mike McDaniel after getting embarrassed, you know i he played in a playoff game like he's not the worst backup quarterback we've seen backup quarterbacks their first start or act since 2021 are actually slightly over 500 against the spread because teams can't prepare for them yes like and and you know depending on how good you think toa is like the drop-off might not be that crazy. The Dolphins also last week, they weren't healthy in the backfield at all, and it was a short week, and they came out.

It didn't seem like they had a good game plan at all. I have enough faith in McDaniel to say they could actually probably come out swinging in this one, and they kind of need it. But I'm fine not taking skyler thompson in seattle against an undefeated team but i do think it's an interesting angle i think like a like a first half seattle dolphins money line like something like that like that that's a way to play this i think if you're if you want to put money in this game i just i mean what do you think Seattle? Like, I just haven't been impressed with them at all. They've played two ass teams.

I know it's my job to, like, have a take at every team. I've watched, like, none of the Seahawks. Like, they just don't, they're, to me, a 9-8 team that has no chance to do anything in the postseason. They've played two bad teams, as you mentioned. Like, I'll watch them when they play the Niners. You know, like, I'll watch a little bit more when they play two bad teams as you mentioned i'll watch them when they play the niners you know like i'll watch a little bit more they play some some better teams um look they're at the lions next uh monday night i will be watching that game okay like that game i will watch um i will not

watch dolphin seahawks this weekend well i will be probably because i i will probably be wagering some money on this game um so that's that's Let's put it in the conversation for our fifth spot, which we're going to have a few really ugly choices to make, I think, unless you have an opinion on Ravens-Gowboys. No, isn't there one game coming up that I think is pretty obvious to take for us? Not Kansas City. Someone else. Well, let's see.

Is it this one? She's in out of three. Yeah, we'll get there see is it this one is it three yeah we'll get there is it this game is it carolina at the raiders with the panthers getting six oh my god i i i like if we weren't cowards we'd have to take the panthers show i like panthers plus uh i think it's three and a half for the first half i i took that on my own uh but this is not a podcast where we wager on first halves. I would, jeez, nothing on this. I'm not betting the Panthers.

We shouldn't. And we can't. It's the right side. Yeah, absolutely. Bryce Young, negative EPA per pass play. Oh, it's been terrible. So they, like, think about it. I don't even really understand what that means. side yeah absolutely bryce young negative epa per pass play it's been terrible so they they like think about it i i don't even really understand what that means but it was it was

just going back to pass was such a bad idea for that team that i like that's like unbelievable i mean we're talking about like malik willis doesn't have those kinds of stats let alone the first pick in the draft oh yeah i think it's, I think that they might get a little bit of a tailwind from switching quarterbacks. Absolutely. I think the first half would come out firing, but then the Raiders, you know, just like might win the game. Plus I think the Raiders have a little hangover from the Ravens win.

Totally. That's I think they're, it's a great time to bet against them. I think people think like, Oh, they're Raiders. And by the way, the only quarterback to throw for more than 250 yards in both games this year is Gardner Minshew. How crazy is that? So I think that the Raiders are there at the peak

of their value. The Panthers. This is a great by low spot, but this is as ugly as it gets. And this is I can tell you how this is going to go. It's like the Panthers will come out and like, oh, they're going to be up seven nothing and they're going to show the graphic. It's like their first lead since like 2022 and then they're gonna lose the game by five and they'll cover like that's how this is gonna go and the thing about it too is

like you're like i look at you i like the action network app and there's certain people if i see like oh man they're on carolina like i'm in raybon's on them of course of course he is it's they're the rights they're the right play and yeah i mean everybody's on them like every every person i like consume and listen to that's smart is like is weighing on the panthers this week and fading the raiders but we're not like everybody else jeff i can't i can't i'm sorry that's good. That's why this podcast exists. We have these conversations. If you're interested in it, you can take it, but we do not have to, we are here to entertain America, which is why we should actually

talk about the Ravens and the Cowboys. Hopefully we're in, hopefully we're in to win money too, but yes, I'm with you on that. Yeah. Yes. Well, why not both? The Cowboys are now one to one and a half point dogs at home against Baltimore. I cannot. I've gone back and forth on this game a hundred times in my head. I'm curious where you are. wins and covers. They played so poorly last week, and they're not a bad football team. No. They're back at home. The Ravens' offensive line is a huge problem still. The Ravens are going to 0-3 after this game. There's one team like that every year.

We're like, holy shit, that team is 0-3? There's no way. So I like the Cowboys in this one, but Sharp people are in Baltimore. So that's the concern. Sharp's like Baltimore. I like Dallas Cowboys in this one, but sharp people are in Baltimore. So like that, that's the concern. Like sharps like Baltimore. Um, I like Dallas to bounce back this week. Um, and I don't, but I, I, but I don't, I have no money in this game. I don't think it's a game that I can realistically put any dollars on because it can go either

way. These are both, they're, they're both good football teams. Yeah, this is a coin flip. And so we're going to learn a lot about one of these teams this week, I think. You mentioned Baltimore's offensive line. I think it's one of the underrated storylines of the whole year is they get Derek Henry. Everyone thinks they're just going to be that same team they've always been of like, you know, five yards every single play. Sort of like the Eagles when they were at their best.

And they just don't have it like they haven't been able to dominate on the line of scrimmage and then their defense is like this young unit with a defensive coordinator who's younger than us who's figuring it out and they I mean really tough week one loss like if they had beaten the Chiefs I think this line would be like

you know it would be different actually I actually don't know because the Cowboys like everyone's just saying like the Ravens aren't going on three, but Dallas is a good team. Like I'm with you. I think they could just dominate, you know, the line of scrimmage on offense too.

So this is a pass is a fun game, but, uh, Oh, interesting. This line's moved. It's 49ers at the Rams. Uh,

this line was up to seven and a half. Now it's down to six and a half because everybody loves McVay getting that many points. Yeah. A sharp group I know hit the Rams a couple days ago. Yeah. I like the under in this game, Matt. I have under 44.5 in this game.

The injury list for the Rams is Pukunukuwa, Cooper Cup, Tyler Higbee. So that's two wide receivers in their tight end. And then three of their offensive linemen are out, and the Niners are missing CMC and Debo. I can't wager on the Rams in this that it is the right side here. They're so beat up, Matt. I think it's under game. I'm surprised this total is this high.

I know the Niners have played the Rams well over the years, so maybe that's why. They sort of have a beat on what they're doing defensively. I don't think the Rams can score in this game. Like this game feels very much, you know, 28, 10,

right? Niners cover, but I'm not betting on them. That feels gross to take that, that number. But I just, I don't know how the Rams do it in this game. I agree.

And those are the games that you end up sort of saying like, well, it doesn't make any sense. Like I, I feel like if you're playing like a money line round Robin or something, you take the Rams. Like, I just feel like they're one of those teams that they could just like, the reason that this line is so high is people just don't know what what their team is going to look like frankly and that's totally fair um but it's the same case we made last week when we were wrong which was got it that that yeah you know mcveigh can just win

a game out of nowhere so uh it's a pass for us uh we got four games left here the lions at the cardinals the cardinals are three-point home dogs is this the one you like i like cardinals yeah interesting okay i i i don't love it because i think their defense is still not very good the cardinals to me matt are an over team every week just bet the bet the over like they don't play great defense and colin murray is is just an elite offensive weapon. The Lions' defense last week was okay, but obviously the Bucs sort of did enough to win.

The only thing that scares me about this number, Matt, is the Lions didn't play terribly well last weekend, and if they play their best game, this is a 14- point win for them, right? Like that, that's my concern about the Cardinals here and, and trendy home dog Cardinals.

I, and it's, it, those are things that, that sort of worry me. It's, it was sort of a favorite of mine during the week, but not so much anymore.

I look, I'm fine with look i'm fine with i'm fine with this i think the cardinals have been a nice surprise this year um the lions i it's funny i didn't i just didn't really see i guess i guess i'm i'm cool with it the lions maybe are just that team that hasn't like come out that hot um so i if this is one of your favorites it's not one of my favorites mostly because the next number moves so much that oh it feels irresponsible to not at least discuss it okay let's discuss it so that we'll call the cardinals maybe uh the chiefs are now just three point favorites in atlanta and primetime kirk. Sounds like you like the Chiefs. I'm not sure we should put it in our five picks, Matt.

But like, let's be honest, guys. If the Falcons lose that game like they should have last, this was four and a half, five. It's like six if they lose that game. But because the Eagles bungled the end of that game, Matt, now it's three points. Three points. The Chiefs have historically not played well in these spots, right?

Sort of like you play these two big dogs, go on the road to play Atlanta. But this game is a Sunday night football game. It's not a 1 p.m. game. If it was a 1 p.m., Matt, I'd tell you to bet the Falcons. This is a primetime game. The Chiefs are going to be up for a primetime game. That is where I'm at with the Chiefs right now. Now, Pacheco's injury is a big deal.

Got to figure out how to sort of run the football. Mahomes hasn't played that well yet, and they're 2-0. So I guess Sharpe groups are pounding the Falcons, I guess. That's why this number's coming down. But it's three now. We've talked about

this. Mahomes is a three-point favorite or less. It's like 97%. It's more like 78%, 80% against the spread. This number is three now. Three and a half, I say no. Four, I say no. At three, Matt, it becomes a serious discussion about taking the Chiefs.

Yeah. I think I'd be more intrigued by this than i would than arizona to be honest absolutely yeah i mean the falcons the falcons are not a very good team yet they might turn into one uh the chiefs defense has been unbelievable i think that they you know they basically won two games for them yeah because my homes has not played well. Yeah, I don't. That's interesting. It's really interesting that it's moved to three.

I wonder if it'll at some point gets two and a half this week, but we might be recording this at the exact right window and we can grab them at three. So I'm willing to put that in the mix. Yeah. Like I can beforehand, I would say no, but at three, I think it's worth talking about. Yeah. All right.

Well, we're going to get back to that after we speed through these two games because I have a feeling we don't have a lean-in either. The Bills are five or five and a half point favorites over the Jags. We are not touching the Jags until they show us something. No. I think you take the over in this game. That's my take on this. That's fair.

Commanders Bengals. The Bengals are seven and a half point favorites. If you have to make a play on this one, bet the Bengals.als, the Bengals are seven and a half point favorites. If, if you have to make a play on this one, bet the Bengals. That's, that's what I'll say is the commanders fan. Just tease or just tease the Bengals down.

Yeah. Tease the Bengals. There's some great teaser numbers this week. Oh, the fantastic teaser numbers. I totally agree. Yeah. Um,

okay. So go ahead and run through our list. So I, I think these are the four we have already. We both like Houston minus two. We like Philly, like Indy. I like the Chargers plus one and a half. Yep.

Let's put it in. That leaves us with, I think, with Arizona plus three and Kansas City minus three. They're the last two that we sort of like agreed upon. Yeah. We're passing on Carolina. We're passing on the Rams. And we're passing on the Dolphins, right? If we were seven and three, I'd be like, sure, put the Panthers in there. Put the – we're not, which actually should change the way we do this,

but nonetheless, it may. Because we're 2-8 right now, Matt. We're 2-8. Should we throw the chefs in there? Should we just get back to our roots and take the Kansas City Chiefs laying a field goal to Kirk Cous in primetime yes right it's a big deal i agree i mean i agree you've mentioned that i i could probably find the holmes stats quickly but yeah it's like he it's it's like the most surefire bet in the history of the sport so maybe we go with it uh especially

when everyone's like hey maybe Kirk Cousins can win in prime time like I don't I'm not sure that that's true uh here it is right here oh this is from the Super Bowl so this obviously um counts so this doesn't count the Niners win in the Super Bowl then also the Ravens cover in week one. So he doesn't cover. He's not a covering machine all the time. But when here's right here, it's against the spread records. Not great overall.

Oh, here we go. So my home has played 25 games in his career, either as a favorite of three points or less, or his underdog. Now that it's not 27. Okay. He's now 26 and one against the spread in those games.

It's insane. In other contests, he's 30-37-1 against the spread. He's 6-0 straight up on the road after throwing for fewer than 200 pass yards. Last week was the worst game of his career.

He also covers more games on the road than at home. I mean, also, here's another thing from Action Network. The Falcons, as underdogs who straight up won on a short week, the next week they cover 39% of the games. So we're getting all the trends on our side here, and I'm fine with it. I'm in. Wow, we have some good teams this week.

Actually, I'm looking forward. There's no Titans on this list. There's no Panthers. Which could be good or bad. There's no Broncos. We're living the dream over here. Houston minus two. The one that I like that I think this is the

the one I like the most is probably the worst of the group. The Chargers plus one and a half. Philly plus three. Indy Pickham. Can't see the minus three. So we get Stroud,

Herbert, Hertz, Richardson, Mahomes. It's not bad. No. And two, like we have a chance in all these games

to like come back at the end if we're losing. Yes. Where the last couple weeks it's been a bunch of Will Levis and Bryce Young and just a beat up Rams offense. So, all right, Matthew. I mean, we're also going against Darnold, Carr, Caleb, Fields, and Cousins. Like, I think we're on to something here. Yeah.

Prom time, Cousins. All right, everyone., I think we're onto something here. Yeah. Promptown cousins. All right, everyone. Thank you for sticking with us. We got this. We can't have a worse week though. We can't, it can't get worse.

No. Um, all right, everyone talk to you guys next Friday. Take care. Enjoy the weekend of football. Go to my Twitter. I just want to put on my college picks as well.

I'll take care of everybody. See you, buddy.